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[00:34] Welcome back everybody. It's Circle Back

[00:36] here on the Circle of Channel, part of

[00:37] the Hammer Bank Network and presented by

[00:40] Cal Street. This is the show we cover

[00:41] the latest and greatest news that

[00:43] [music] comes from gambling Twitter. And

[00:45] my goodness, gambling Twitter was filled

[00:47] with controversy and drama over the last

[00:50] few days. We had a huge controversy with

[00:52] prediction market avoiding NFL winning

[00:55] SGPs. We had a hot debate over the math

[00:59] behind how to properly play in circus

[01:01] survivor contest. We had an update in

[01:04] the gambling tax which we talked about a

[01:06] lot on the show already this year and a

[01:08] lot more for today. If you do enjoy,

[01:10] make sure you do hit the like button and

[01:12] make sure as well you are subscribed to

[01:13] the channel. But let's get into things.

[01:15] I am your host here on Circleback. My

[01:16] name is Jacob Gman. I am a creator and

[01:19] producer for the hammer betting network.

[01:20] Down in the bottom left corner as usual,

[01:22] we have Mike aka Mr. Peanut Better who

[01:26] very much frequents these prediction

[01:28] markets and does well there. So, it'll

[01:29] be interesting to get his takes over the

[01:31] course of the show today. Down in the

[01:32] bottom right corner of the screen, we

[01:34] have the co-host on Hit the Books, which

[01:36] is the college football channel here at

[01:38] the Hammer, which is Joey Kesh. And up

[01:40] in the top right, we have Porter joining

[01:43] us once again of BA Analytics paperhead

[01:46] specialist according to his headline

[01:47] there. Porter, how you doing? Thank you

[01:48] for joining us today.

[01:49] >> Doing good. Doing good. Looks like we

[01:51] got a lot of exciting uh topics to cover

[01:53] today,

[01:54] >> I would say. So, so let's not wait any

[01:56] longer. Let's jump into it. There was

[01:58] controversy with the prediction market,

[01:59] as I said, and that prediction market in

[02:02] question was Novig. They got into some

[02:04] hot water from a user called Dylan Bets

[02:07] at Dillanb 33789.

[02:09] And also another one with Bmore EV,

[02:13] who's basically they went through

[02:15] winning parlays and SGPS. they had over

[02:18] the course of the weekend. Some of which

[02:19] featured NFL NFL players such as I see a

[02:23] Bryce Young SGP overall Carolina

[02:25] Panthers SGB SGP. There was a NHL SGP

[02:29] that went with it as well. And the claim

[02:31] here is that even days after these bets

[02:35] were settled as winners, Nove went back,

[02:38] saw an error with the way they priced

[02:40] them, and then avoided these wages.

[02:42] sometimes giving some of their users a

[02:44] negative account balance. There were

[02:47] lots of takes that occurred from this.

[02:49] We had ED Betsks who said obvious error

[02:52] void on this one is ab is actually

[02:54] absurd. Come on novig do better. The

[02:56] real fats who is very good at having

[02:59] like nuanced opinions and not going too

[03:01] aggressive on things. He says boycott

[03:03] Novik, your money is not safe there.

[03:06] Plus TV analytics said correlated SGPs

[03:08] are complex and hard to price by nature.

[03:10] books off for them for one reason only,

[03:12] and that's to flee suckers. You screw up

[03:14] the pricing and the exploder becomes the

[03:16] exploited, that's fair play in my

[03:18] opinion. Pay that man his money. Captain

[03:21] Jack said, "Good time to mention the uh

[03:24] New Jersey DGE test for palpable error."

[03:27] One, did the wager have risk of losing?

[03:29] Two, was it a valid wager? If yes to

[03:31] both, bet stands. In this case, it would

[03:33] be yes to both. But there was a little

[03:35] bit of push back on the claims. Maple at

[03:38] Maple42069

[03:40] says, "All of these SGPs are obvious

[03:43] errors. You are kidding yourself if you

[03:45] don't agree. Go ahead and take your

[03:47] shot, but if it doesn't get paid, that's

[03:49] the way it goes." And a bunch of other

[03:50] things to say there, but just some

[03:52] people weren't always in agreeance

[03:53] there. Big Buck, Big Buck Hunter of

[03:56] Novik, Henry, who actually has been a

[03:58] guest one time on the Friday edition of

[03:59] Circle Back, discussed the error earlier

[04:02] to it was earlier Thursday. discussed

[04:05] the error, discussed why they decided to

[04:07] void these bets and overall apologize

[04:10] for it, but basically still stood by the

[04:13] decision to void them rather than still

[04:16] pay them out. That decision seemingly

[04:18] was reversed a few hours later when no

[04:20] Vig's account actually said that we got

[04:23] this wrong in a rush to fix the SP bug

[04:25] before NFL Sunday. We were too

[04:26] aggressive in cancing trades that

[04:27] already won. We have decided to honor

[04:29] all of these trades and pay them in

[04:32] full. All right, sorry for the long

[04:34] intro, but is a very big topic to cover

[04:36] here, but like I said in the intro,

[04:38] Mike, you're you're very much a user of

[04:41] prediction markets and successfully, I

[04:44] might add, according to Koshi

[04:45] leaderboards. But how did you feel about

[04:47] this whole situation? Did Novig get it

[04:50] right in the end? What was the best way

[04:51] to handle this?

[04:53] So, not to after Jacob's long intern,

[04:56] not to add another one on here. Uh, but

[04:58] full disclaimer, I do work with uh Chris

[05:02] pretty regularly. I would say, you know,

[05:04] we're in business quite often. Um, and

[05:06] beyond that, I think I would call him a

[05:08] personal friend. I would say to me, he's

[05:11] one of the guys that I trust the most in

[05:13] the industry, honestly, bar none. So, to

[05:16] get that all out there, I understand I'm

[05:18] going to try to be as objective as I

[05:19] can. I think all the people involved

[05:21] have uh you know highest character at

[05:23] NOVIG. I don't really know the highest

[05:25] level of people but everyone I do um you

[05:27] know I like personally so I want to get

[05:29] that out of the way. I think for SGPS

[05:33] really what it comes down to is it's

[05:35] much harder to tell what a popell error

[05:38] is than what it used to be. So these

[05:42] parlays that you see originally, I'm not

[05:45] so sure that what is a probable error

[05:48] and what is not in this case. So NOVIG

[05:51] clearly had something wrong where their

[05:54] correlation was broken within their uh

[05:57] SGP pricing. From what I understand, it

[06:00] was the non like it was priced as if

[06:03] essentially there was no correlation for

[06:05] these values. So these values that were

[06:07] obviously highly correlated uh were

[06:09] priced as if it was you know parlaying

[06:12] two random events that had were not with

[06:14] one another. It was SGP priced as a

[06:17] regular parlay

[06:19] to the people who are taking angle shots

[06:21] on this and their bet gets voided.

[06:25] To me, if you know what you're doing,

[06:27] like part of this is, you know, you

[06:30] can't play this game and then be upset

[06:32] when uh it doesn't break your way. As

[06:35] Maple put it, you know, like you know

[06:37] exactly what you're doing, take your

[06:38] shot and if it doesn't work out for you,

[06:40] that's fine. You can't be a pirate one

[06:42] day and then complaining that they're

[06:44] not paying you out the next. Um, but as

[06:48] far as a book's right where I think

[06:50] really what this comes down to is I

[06:52] don't have a problem with them voiding a

[06:53] set of wages based on an obvious

[06:55] software bug that they couldn't fix. To

[06:58] me, where it gets where I think Novvic

[07:01] personally messed up was this delayed

[07:04] response and the voiding of bets that

[07:06] were quite a bit ago. So if this issue

[07:10] was occurring, they obviously weren't

[07:12] getting slammed by it for, you know, the

[07:15] first day. So it looks like it showed up

[07:17] on Friday. They weren't getting slammed

[07:19] for it on that Friday. They waited.

[07:22] Nothing seemed wrong to them. They were

[07:23] taking action all day Saturday. Saturday

[07:25] happens. They get blitzed, I'm guessing,

[07:27] with a bunch of stuff that's going on.

[07:29] They have a huge loss led. I mean, that

[07:31] one hockey loss. I don't know what Novig

[07:34] takes in. I can't imagine they're paying

[07:35] out a ton of negative or a ton of 16K

[07:38] liabilities out on a hockey game based

[07:41] on hockey props. That's just not a very

[07:43] common occurrence. People don't bet on

[07:44] it that much. Uh stuff like that. So to

[07:47] me, once they got uh blitzed, someone

[07:50] should have been watching and looking

[07:52] over that game and say, "Hey, why do we

[07:54] have a 16k loss on this hockey props?

[07:57] What is going on here?" You have to

[07:59] immediately then start to look at all

[08:00] the bets you've taken over that game,

[08:02] all the bets you've taken in other

[08:03] games. your largest losses and see

[08:05] what's going on at that time. Someone

[08:08] needs to be like, "Hey, turn this turn

[08:09] the thing off. Something's going on.

[08:11] Something's wrong."

[08:14] They didn't do it right away. I don't

[08:15] know how long it took them between

[08:17] actually determining it was broke or if

[08:19] they think, "Okay, this one's broke, but

[08:21] the entire thing's not broken, so we can

[08:23] allow it to happen." Then they waited

[08:25] Sunday. they were taking a bunch of

[08:26] wages, realized how bad the wages they

[08:28] were taking um on those bets were and

[08:32] then had to cancel them. So to me, I

[08:36] think Friday's bets, you didn't catch

[08:38] them during that time. You have to pay

[08:40] those out. You know, you can't go back.

[08:42] We're going to start doing bets that are

[08:43] like longer than a week old. Well, if

[08:45] you broke a probable error, you know, I

[08:47] think there's kind of a window from when

[08:50] the first issue happened till when you

[08:53] can reasonably say, "Hey, we caught it

[08:55] and fix the mistake." If it's not within

[08:57] that opening window, then I don't think

[08:59] they should be voided as far as the

[09:01] winners. Uh for upcoming bets, I still

[09:02] think it's fine that they voided them.

[09:04] Um but I think this really is a larger

[09:07] issue with SGPS now that books in

[09:10] general just have no idea what the risk

[09:11] is on anything. And there's things that

[09:13] are wildly correlated. They have these

[09:15] huge to wins. They don't know what

[09:17] they're taking on each thing. And I

[09:19] understand it's a lot to manage that all

[09:21] and have your liabilities because it's a

[09:23] lot more confusing than it ever used to

[09:24] be. Uh but you know, with the increased

[09:27] ROI that you get from these SGPs as uh

[09:30] plus EV said, you have to be also add in

[09:33] the additional risk management. So you

[09:35] can't get the benefits of the high ROI

[09:37] without the you know increased

[09:39] complexity and liabilities that come

[09:40] with it. It's like, you know, the Don,

[09:42] to paraphrase Don Draper, that's what

[09:43] the money is for. This increased

[09:45] liability. You don't know what's going

[09:46] on. That's what the ROI is for. So, to

[09:49] me, it's a pretty complicated situation.

[09:50] I don't agree that they should have went

[09:52] out and paid him back afterwards, but I

[09:55] that's I've already spoken long enough,

[09:56] so I'll get to you guys.

[09:57] >> So, sorry, just to go back to quickly,

[09:59] not to take what you said too literally,

[10:01] but do you think there should be

[10:03] essentially in house rules a time limit

[10:05] for when they're able to go back and

[10:07] void on a mistake, for example? Yeah, I

[10:10] I think so. I would say if you think

[10:13] about like a stat correction in an NBA

[10:15] game, there's a time period where hey,

[10:16] we can still if there was a stat

[10:18] correction or something like that, we

[10:19] can go back within this thing, but then

[10:21] after a certain amount of time,

[10:23] >> you can't do that. So, I would say that

[10:25] yes, I don't know what the hard time

[10:27] should be. But to me, if a company's

[10:29] acting, you know, rising

[10:33] their risk properly, they should be

[10:36] either checking why they're having such

[10:37] large losses in a short period of time.

[10:40] And if the losses aren't large enough to

[10:42] draw, you know, a flag, then it's not

[10:44] large enough. You need to refund it and

[10:45] you should probably just let it ride.

[10:47] >> All right, let's get over to Porter

[10:49] here. Any thoughts on this? Do you think

[10:51] this was handled correctly? So that was

[10:53] a great nuance take on what you know the

[10:57] situation was but let's talk a little

[10:59] bit about the practical take of what

[11:01] actually happened here. One

[11:04] I come from maybe a little bit older

[11:06] school of you know thought process where

[11:09] first of all it is if you're taking this

[11:12] seriously and I know I've heard kind of

[11:14] you know bigger name like Spanky say

[11:16] you're like you work with the books. I

[11:18] I'm sorry. The books are your opponents.

[11:20] And I know here it's supposed to be an

[11:22] exchange or sweep stakes, but in

[11:24] reality, when you see an opportunity,

[11:27] you should take it. Now, with that being

[11:29] said, it's also, you know, in the

[11:32] offshore world, you're always getting

[11:34] voided here. You're never collecting.

[11:36] So, maybe I was like taught and trained

[11:38] a little bit more to at first be more

[11:41] okay with it. But here's like the real

[11:44] practical take I think the audience

[11:45] should take from here. Effectively,

[11:48] bullying works. You just have to be

[11:50] famous on Twitter. Work real hard and

[11:52] you'll get paid. So, in reality, the

[11:55] lessons that I see from here are

[11:57] effectively take shots. If things don't

[11:59] work out, if you go viral, things are

[12:01] going to be okay. Now, is that good or

[12:04] bad? I'm not I'm not really sure cuz

[12:06] again, like as a better, you're trying

[12:08] to extract every dollar possible from

[12:10] the book. And I'm sorry, but I know I

[12:14] get criticized sometimes for the ways

[12:15] that my office wins, but in reality,

[12:17] you're just trying to make a dollar.

[12:19] Again, it depends what your goals are.

[12:20] If this is like theoretical and you have

[12:23] fun doing math projects and working

[12:25] things out, whatever. But if your goal

[12:26] here is to turn a buck, I'm sorry.

[12:28] Effectively, the lesson taught here is

[12:30] take shots, which this is obviously shot

[12:33] taking. Um, it's very hard to define,

[12:35] like uh Mr. Peanut Butter said, you

[12:37] know, what a palpable error is. It's,

[12:39] you know, this is this is this is

[12:41] complicated. So, in reality, I think

[12:45] once you make the decision not to pay,

[12:48] backtracking here to pay is probably the

[12:52] wrong decision. Even though it's

[12:54] probably right that they should have

[12:56] just originally paid or maybe this

[12:58] publicity is worth it anyway and in two

[13:00] weeks from now, no one's going to

[13:01] remember this anyway. People want the

[13:03] best lines. So, like, who knows? But the

[13:05] reality is effectively the lesson

[13:06] learned here is bully your way Twitter

[13:08] your way into getting paid. It's not

[13:10] this. It's not really that complicated.

[13:12] You're trying to make money. That's it.

[13:13] If that's your goal, then what lessons

[13:15] are you really picking up from here?

[13:18] >> Probable errors are confusing. Yes, it's

[13:20] hard to decide. Should they have is this

[13:22] kind of a stiff? If they don't pay,

[13:24] that's bad publicity. Now they're paying

[13:25] back afterwards. There's a million. It's

[13:28] so much more complicated than just, hey,

[13:30] these parlays are obviously

[13:33] questionable at best. It's obvious and

[13:36] most pros, they do accept that when you

[13:38] get caught, you don't get paid, but

[13:41] really sometimes you just got to fight,

[13:43] you know, and maybe you will get your

[13:44] money. So, this is like another level on

[13:47] top of sports betting.

[13:49] >> You always bring a take to the show

[13:50] Porter that I I just I just don't

[13:52] expect, which is bullying works. And I

[13:55] guess it kind of does because now a lot

[13:57] of books give you refunds if a player

[14:00] gets injured early on in the game.

[14:01] They'll avoid your that leg of an SGP or

[14:04] they'll avoid that player prop. That

[14:06] would have never happened without

[14:07] backlash that occurred on Twitter. So

[14:08] there is that

[14:09] >> and that's because the audience isn't

[14:11] educated. Those paybacks that you're

[14:13] getting, you're going to eat it in worse

[14:14] lines later on, but the casuals don't

[14:17] really understand that,

[14:19] >> right? Uh let's head over to you,

[14:20] Kenish. Let's hear your voice finally on

[14:22] this one. Do you have any thoughts on

[14:24] this? Do you think Novik handled this

[14:26] incorrectly, correctly?

[14:28] >> I mean, listen, I first of all, I've

[14:31] taken a lot of shots on the years. I

[14:33] don't mind the shot taking at all. In

[14:35] fact, I love the shot taking. With that

[14:39] said, this was and I'm glad he's not

[14:42] here to give us the old, you know, five

[14:44] minutes of political spin and

[14:48] no, you either take a stance and either

[14:51] like we f like you got us, you got got

[14:54] you got got you paid them all right like

[14:57] and you put it out like all right we're

[14:58] on this like credit to those guys like

[15:00] no that but to then a few days later not

[15:04] even catch it in the act a few days

[15:06] later void it. So now you get all this

[15:08] negative press right now. Now

[15:10] everybody's no big I'm deleting my

[15:12] account. I'm fraud. I'm fraud. All that

[15:14] and then a day later after your trading

[15:18] people have already said like no this is

[15:20] why we did it. You know we're just

[15:21] trying. Then the like half a day later

[15:24] oh we're just going to pay everybody

[15:27] disaster.

[15:29] You either make the decision upfront we

[15:32] got got and address or you come and say

[15:35] no you're gonna take shots in our house

[15:38] you're not going to get your money sorry

[15:41] this is this is exactly what you know

[15:43] poor to Porter's point now it says I can

[15:46] go to novig I can take my shot and then

[15:49] I can go and be the loud you know

[15:51] squealy squeaky wheel gets the grease

[15:53] and come and say guess what they should

[15:56] have paid me I'm going to say I'm going

[15:57] to go on this campaign

[15:59] disastrous PR strategy because the

[16:01] people have already seen the negative

[16:04] aspects. You never get the credit when

[16:07] any book comes back after they do

[16:09] something, you know, they voided. You

[16:11] never get the, you know, like, oh great,

[16:14] I'm I'll be loyal. I remember Porter

[16:17] said early in our chat, they should have

[16:19] took the took the money and just spent

[16:21] IT ON NEW CUSTOMERS. I AGREE BECAUSE AT

[16:24] that point [laughter] the damage is

[16:25] already done and do reversing this

[16:27] decision doesn't undo that damage.

[16:30] >> Yeah, I want to actually I want to a

[16:32] little bit double down on that where uh

[16:34] Novig recently left a few states and by

[16:36] the way you never hear about the good

[16:38] stuff PE places you know companies do.

[16:40] So they paid out some futures that I had

[16:42] like pretty fairly they like gave extra

[16:45] money in spots that I deserve to like

[16:46] lose bets. But the point is that doesn't

[16:49] really help you with your business, you

[16:51] know, moving forward. And now they've

[16:54] kind of trapped themselves into like

[16:56] what Kish said, like now what that

[16:58] didn't does that really help at this

[17:00] point, you know? So I don't know. I

[17:02] don't know. Oh, and you know what? I'm

[17:04] going to make some other assumptions. I

[17:05] think they left a few states and they

[17:07] maybe had to give out some money in

[17:08] those states to a lot of the things and

[17:10] then they got hit with a perfect storm

[17:12] right afterwards. So there's a lot of

[17:14] things they're, you know, they had to

[17:15] move leave California. I don't know what

[17:17] other states, but there's a few other

[17:18] states. So, I think this combination of

[17:20] events might have rattled them a little

[17:21] bit and they acted kind of pro, you

[17:23] know, too quick on made a few decisions.

[17:25] That's just some assumptions I'm making.

[17:27] So, it's kind of like a perfect storm of

[17:28] bad things happening.

[17:30] >> Yeah, I I mean, losing California

[17:32] obviously hurts. It's like, you know,

[17:34] one of the biggest economic uh centers

[17:36] in the world by itself without the rest

[17:39] of the country. So having that and uh

[17:41] you know having access to that where

[17:42] FanDuel and DraftKings might not uh was

[17:44] obviously beneficial. I think kind of

[17:47] what Joey and Porter are saying really

[17:50] well that a lot of people who if you

[17:52] first glance on it you're like oh my

[17:53] gosh this guy said he placed his bet and

[17:56] his bet got voided and oh what a poor

[17:58] guy. Like the he went in and found

[18:01] something where he thought the software

[18:03] was broken and tried to place every

[18:05] single combination 100 and like if

[18:07] you're going to be a pirate be a pirate.

[18:08] go in, take your shots, and then don't

[18:11] come back and like complain to Twitter

[18:13] like, "Oh my gosh, poor me. I can't

[18:15] believe." I don't know. I think uh

[18:17] coming from the PPH world, Porter

[18:18] understands that uh you know, if you're

[18:20] going to do that, there ain't no such

[18:21] thing as halfway crooks. If you're going

[18:23] to go in and try to get the bag, go get

[18:26] the bag and don't complain after. But at

[18:28] the same time, I don't know. Do I think

[18:30] it I guess the big question is do you

[18:32] think it has any impact on your

[18:35] likelihood if you are betting at no big

[18:37] to get paid in the future and I think 0%

[18:41] this has changed my opinion of getting

[18:43] paid out none.

[18:45] >> Yeah.

[18:46] >> All right. So I think most of most of

[18:49] you kind of think that the bet should

[18:51] have just been voided and left at that

[18:54] but turned into a little bit of a circus

[18:57] in the end. Go ahead.

[18:57] >> Yeah. Yeah. shorter term, I think they

[19:00] probably should have been voided. I

[19:01] think the ones that are older, they

[19:02] should have kept, right? I think mostly

[19:03] what we've learned through all of this

[19:05] is if I ever have a PR strategy firm,

[19:08] the last person I'd call is flop.

[19:10] [laughter]

[19:10] >> You got he comes, he tries to meet

[19:12] people halfway, he's like, oh, you know,

[19:14] tries to meet them instead of

[19:16] understanding the last thing you can do

[19:17] is engage with people. You just have to

[19:19] shut it down. Should have said avoid it.

[19:21] Get out of here. You guys are losers.

[19:23] That's what I would have done. But I

[19:24] also don't run a company. So,

[19:25] >> all right. [laughter]

[19:27] maybe some advice there. Uh I look

[19:29] forward to Flip's response in uh in

[19:32] Telegram to that one. [laughter]

[19:34] But with that, we can head into our next

[19:37] topic in just a moment here. If you are

[19:38] enjoying the show so far, a very long

[19:40] first topic, but a very interesting one,

[19:42] I think. If you're enjoying so far, make

[19:44] sure you do hit the like button. If

[19:45] you're new to the channel, consider

[19:46] subscribing to the channel as well. Keep

[19:48] up to date with all this great content

[19:50] that we have. We have circle back

[19:52] Fridays, Mondays, and bonus content on

[19:54] the channel on Wednesdays to go with it.

[19:56] But next topic is on the gambling tax.

[20:00] It is now December 2025 and it feels

[20:03] like this topic has died down a little

[20:05] bit, but this this is a this is a very

[20:08] large deal. This this is about to to

[20:10] take shape here. Dina Titus, the um

[20:13] representative uh in in Nevada, excuse

[20:16] me, said earlier this year, the BS

[20:18] budget bill reduced the tax deduction to

[20:20] for gambling losses to 90% in response

[20:23] to introduced the Fair Bet Act to

[20:25] restore to that to the 100% tax

[20:28] deduction on losses. They she's been

[20:31] working hard to try and get this

[20:32] repealed to get this changed, but it

[20:34] feels like there really hasn't been any

[20:36] traction on this one. Blockhead at OU

[20:39] Blockhead on Twitter quoted this and

[20:41] said, "If Vegas dies, it won't be

[20:42] because of prediction markets or sports

[20:44] betting apps. It will be when the break

[20:46] even poker player finally leaves." And

[20:48] with him goes his $100 valet tips, his

[20:51] weekly $500 catch order, his $30,000 a

[20:54] year on massages. I pulled up the Kashi

[20:58] market for this one, which has seen some

[20:59] fluctuation the last few days. Will the

[21:01] cap on gambling loss reduction be

[21:03] repealed? Now, this is it's gone from

[21:05] like a yes no to now when will it be

[21:07] repealed before 2026 sits now at 5.5%.

[21:12] Before April 2026 is at 23% after

[21:16] briefly jumping all the way up uh to

[21:18] above 50 at one point earlier in I think

[21:22] it was last week actually and before

[21:24] 2027 actually jumped up to 67% at one

[21:27] point a couple weeks ago. Now down at

[21:29] 44%. Let's start with you on this one

[21:31] Porter. We kind of briefly talked about

[21:33] it before we started recording today,

[21:35] but kind of gambling as you know it in

[21:37] the US is seemingly about to change. It

[21:40] doesn't feel like a lot of people are

[21:41] talking about it enough.

[21:42] >> Yeah. Let me let me get my prop here as

[21:44] to what might be the only solution.

[21:46] Puerto Rico moving here. Uh it is funny

[21:50] that this was a big deal and then it

[21:54] didn't get repealed and it's kind of

[21:58] disappeared from conversations.

[22:01] Um, this will probably fall on deaf

[22:03] ears, but most people how they do taxes,

[22:06] they do it 6 months too late. You know,

[22:08] your taxes are due after.

[22:10] uh it's time to start thinking about

[22:12] your plans and talking to accountants or

[22:15] you know specialists in um getting

[22:18] audited in taxes where what your plans

[22:22] moving forward are because most of the

[22:25] experts that I've seen talk about

[22:27] gambling taxes. This is pretty

[22:30] doomsdayish, especially for lower ROI

[22:34] guys. And it's very strange that this

[22:37] has kind of disappeared from

[22:39] conversation. And I mean, you were

[22:42] looking at that uh chart from uh Cali a

[22:45] little bit different than I was. I'm

[22:46] effectively looking there seeing that

[22:48] and this is this is about as dark as it

[22:50] gets in reality. And then I was like,

[22:52] wait, there must be no volume. Then I

[22:53] see, wait, that says 2 million. And I

[22:55] opened up the tabs and I'm like, "Wow,

[22:57] there's there's not monster liquidity

[23:00] for like and the spread's not the spread

[23:02] is relatively tight act for these kind

[23:04] of funky markets. It's pretty tight.

[23:06] This is a lot. It's just disappeared,

[23:09] which is strange to me." And I'm sure

[23:11] people will just delay, delay, delay. I

[23:13] mean, I I all of a sudden see the poker

[23:14] scene getting in this like last week.

[23:17] like, uh, guys, you're this is a little

[23:19] bit late to start throwing, you know,

[23:21] the alarms, ringing the bells, but

[23:23] right, this is pretty bad and it's just

[23:26] kind of been ignored. And maybe that's

[23:28] to show you how few people are doing

[23:31] really well, how many people are making

[23:33] money in different ways, touting or

[23:36] selling subscriptions or whatever, but

[23:39] this well, I mean, this I don't know,

[23:42] probably will fall by the wayside. I

[23:43] don't think people are going to properly

[23:45] plan for this either way. and everyone's

[23:47] just crossing their fingers and not

[23:49] everyone. Most people are crossing their

[23:50] fingers and hoping for the best.

[23:53] >> You're you're getting prepared though,

[23:54] right? You're you've got the the

[23:56] doomsday bunker ready to go.

[23:58] >> I mean, I get a lot of DMs and I never

[24:00] know what to say to be honest. So, I

[24:01] just try to ask experts their best

[24:03] opinion and man, there's actually some

[24:05] scary answers that I don't really love.

[24:07] But in general, good luck everybody. Uh

[24:10] we'll go over we'll go over to you

[24:12] Kenish on this one. You you you're Joey

[24:14] corporate these days. So there is, you

[24:16] know, the fall back. You've got you've

[24:18] got the job, you've got the I I would

[24:20] think a salary. But are are you doing

[24:22] any preparation for this? What do you

[24:24] have you put any thought into this? Are

[24:26] you concerned at all?

[24:28] >> Um, let's see how I can say this.

[24:30] Hypothetically,

[24:33] [laughter] in this new environment, it's

[24:36] going to be really nice to have a W2.

[24:40] I'll let I'll let the audience take that

[24:42] for what it may. From the other aspect,

[24:45] there was a former panel member who told

[24:47] me six months ago, "Ah, nothing to worry

[24:50] about. I I got it. I'm calling my

[24:53] representatives. I got a team. I got a

[24:55] group here where it'll be it'll probably

[24:57] be done by, you know,

[25:00] >> it was at like 60% to be repealed and he

[25:02] was still willing to take

[25:04] >> Yeah.

[25:06] It might be repealed next week according

[25:08] to him. This was in like April. Well,

[25:10] now it's December and guess what?

[25:13] >> It's not getting done. And next year, as

[25:16] the Cali market just says, it's not even

[25:18] a favorite to get done next year. And I

[25:20] >> the year after or the year after.

[25:22] >> YEAH. RIGHT. RIGHT. So I to me this is

[25:27] to the point now where

[25:30] you're going to have to see Well, like

[25:32] we do some budgets at work, right? and

[25:34] you do a budget and you say, "I don't

[25:37] think we're going to be able to hit that

[25:38] next year." But nobody actually up to

[25:41] the the the suits don't actually do

[25:43] anything for this until it's January,

[25:46] February, March, and you're like, "Whoa,

[25:47] we're trending awful on this budget."

[25:49] That's what's going to happen is 26 is

[25:51] going to happen. You're gonna have a

[25:53] bunch of like VIP important people, you

[25:56] know, Dana White at a casino or

[25:58] something that gets their tax return

[26:00] from ex and is like or gets their tax

[26:02] liability and is like, "What the hell is

[26:04] this?" I think it now needs to actually

[26:07] be felt by people around the

[26:10] administration. There are people that

[26:12] have enough influence politically to see

[26:14] it play out for a change to happen

[26:17] because this grassroots of like sports

[26:19] betterers, poker players getting

[26:21] together and trying to change thing.

[26:22] Guess what? It hasn't worked. And the

[26:24] prediction market says it's not going to

[26:25] work. So something needs to change that

[26:29] probably hasn't happened yet. And it's

[26:30] this has to be felt by probably rich

[26:33] people with influence.

[26:35] >> All right, let's go over to you, Mike.

[26:38] >> How much does this influence you? Are

[26:39] you worried? Uh yes I the short answer

[26:44] is uh long term I am worried I have some

[26:46] uh different ways I'm handling it in the

[26:48] short term. Um uh Kesh I was just as

[26:51] someone who you know hits the kiosk

[26:52] pretty regularly when you get that cash

[26:54] back how do you handle the accounting

[26:56] with all that in your taxes are you

[26:57] making sure you know that you're keeping

[27:00] good record so when you get all that

[27:02] cash back that's definitely you know not

[27:05] recorded you're definitely making sure

[27:07] to record all that and going to use that

[27:09] 90%. Correct.

[27:11] >> Absolutely. To a tea. Haven't missed a

[27:13] bet in my career. One thing I will say

[27:17] is you really you really now and I've

[27:20] done this for the past seven, eight

[27:22] years. You want to keep the losers. All

[27:25] of them. Keep them in a y. I GOT BAGS

[27:27] UPON BAGS OF ZIPLOCKS with all the

[27:30] losers in them. Um so and and if you're

[27:33] the THE GUY DOWN THE YOU KNOW THE GUY

[27:35] THE GUY AT THE END OF THE KIOSK has some

[27:36] losers, you say, "Okay, hey, you got

[27:38] those losers. I might be going THROUGH

[27:40] THE TRASH AT FANG, YOU KNOW, FanDuel

[27:42] here with a, you know, LIKE A BAG PUT

[27:44] all the losers in in put them in.

[27:46] >> By the way, by the way, I want to I

[27:48] don't usually give uh betting picks

[27:50] online, but I'm really liking this uh

[27:52] will it be repealed before 2026? No. At

[27:56] 94.5.

[27:58] Lock me lock me in for that pick like

[28:00] hard. And I might have some bond. It's a

[28:03] bond. It's a bond. I I have I have I

[28:05] have money there, by the way, too. I'm

[28:07] not just randomly putting money behind

[28:09] my words.

[28:10] >> The reason I make that joke with Kesh is

[28:12] that works pretty well. You know, that

[28:15] astute recordkeeping works really well

[28:16] when you're in cash. And now it kind of

[28:18] seems like a lot of people's take is we

[28:21] need to do that, you know, moving

[28:23] forward. And we have to find creative

[28:26] accounting. And it doesn't seem like

[28:29] anybody has found a solution other than,

[28:31] you know, I'm really going to try to

[28:32] work around it to the best of my

[28:34] ability. And it, like Porter said, this

[28:36] was the biggest deal in the world.

[28:38] Everybody talked about it and we, you

[28:39] know, sports betting's over as we know

[28:40] it and now it's three months later and

[28:42] it's still going on and nobody seems to

[28:44] care. So,

[28:45] >> Puerto Rico has a 4% 4% tax rate if you

[28:48] move there. By the way,

[28:50] >> uh, [laughter] your research

[28:53] >> I think Jacob, [clears throat]

[28:55] can I, you know, like Rick? I mean, can

[28:56] I, you know, you got an extra room?

[28:59] >> No, not not for [laughter] you. I think

[29:01] that one you can turn your investments

[29:04] into Joey's uh it looks like he's going

[29:06] to have a kiosk ticket business where he

[29:08] can sell those back off to you have

[29:10] greater losses but if you don't have

[29:12] that and I'm not suggesting anyone

[29:13] commit tax fraud uh what you can do is

[29:16] use a sponsor like Koshi and you can

[29:19] make money that way except now they are

[29:21] talking about there's questions

[29:23] regarding that with Russell Fox I don't

[29:25] know it feels like the world's caving in

[29:26] nobody knows what the right answer is

[29:28] and because nobody knows But the path

[29:31] forward is we just everybody has kind of

[29:33] given up on it and it's the ultimate

[29:36] apathy, you know, doesn't cause a

[29:38] response.

[29:39] >> The the the big names in this are saying

[29:41] I know there's a lot of listeners that

[29:42] probably haven't heard this, but the

[29:44] like expert expert people are saying the

[29:46] prediction markets something called the

[29:48] I forget the duck rule, something like

[29:49] that. This counts to sports betting

[29:51] guys. You haven't found like a way to s

[29:53] that's I'm not saying that. I'm saying

[29:54] big names are saying this is not some

[29:56] way to circumvent this tax. So I will

[29:59] reference a recent interview we had on

[30:01] this channel where Rob interviewed

[30:02] Calvin and Hobo and he talked about

[30:05] maybe not specific to this example but

[30:06] he talked about for the with regulation

[30:09] the extra hurdles that have now come

[30:11] into place in betting it just slowly

[30:13] weeds out more and more people from the

[30:15] field in theory making it easier for you

[30:18] to profit as a sports better. Now, this

[30:20] is a very massive hurdle, but do any of

[30:22] you think this presents an opportunity

[30:24] for someone to crack it and now take

[30:27] advantage of a much smaller playing

[30:29] field essentially? Is that something

[30:31] that somebody could be thinking? I most

[30:33] are I think the panel is going to say

[30:34] no, but I actually think yes because the

[30:38] real serious people are probably much

[30:40] more nervous about this than the

[30:42] unserious people that don't really

[30:44] affect the markets

[30:45] >> and they have less to, you know, they

[30:47] have less incentive to do something

[30:49] riskier than someone who's not going to

[30:50] get caught. If you're making a ton

[30:52] through various sources, you're going to

[30:54] be like, "Okay, is it really worth it to

[30:55] do whatever?" if you're more scraping

[30:57] by, you might be willing to say, "Hey,

[31:00] let's take it to the best of my ability

[31:02] and I'll claim it as best I can." I

[31:04] think um you know, one way that it could

[31:07] weed people out is if you don't have the

[31:09] resources to claim it correctly or if

[31:12] you are doing any kind of you know, I'm

[31:14] going to call it a session or something

[31:16] like that. Uh accounting, if you're just

[31:19] an individual who's trying to grind and

[31:20] make your way up, I don't you can't

[31:22] afford an accountant to cover something

[31:24] that's a side hustle for you. So I think

[31:26] it's really, you know, upsetting for

[31:28] people who are trying to build

[31:30] something, but probably does present an

[31:32] advantage to people who already have

[31:33] one, which is also depressing in a way,

[31:36] which is also probably a greater

[31:38] reflection of society and something we

[31:40] keep moving towards.

[31:41] >> Well, whatever your opinion is, Porter

[31:43] likes the no before January 2026. Will

[31:46] the cap on gambling loss reduction be

[31:48] repealed? 94.5 cents currently on Kali.

[31:51] Our presenting sponsor. You can sign up

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[32:06] back. You can support the show at the

[32:08] exact same time. Now we can get into our

[32:10] next topic. There was a big debate

[32:12] between Clar24

[32:14] on Twitter and Steve Fezic. Now no Fez

[32:17] November is over but this one is coming

[32:20] up for the Friday show. We're not

[32:22] letting Rob, Jeff, and Kirk get a crack

[32:23] at this one. We're getting a crack at

[32:25] this one. So, to give you a bit of a

[32:28] background on everything here. It's a

[32:30] bit of a long one. So, so bear with me

[32:31] here. But Fezic starts off by saying the

[32:34] media is way too resultsoriented about

[32:36] Circus Survivor. And a bunch of people

[32:38] took big underdogs like Bears, Lions,

[32:40] Packers, Bengals. Bears happen to be

[32:42] fine because more than half the

[32:44] remaining entries were on the Eagles at

[32:46] the time. That was the Friday game after

[32:48] all three underdogs had won on

[32:50] Thanksgiving Day. But his view is that

[32:52] outside of that very specific Bears

[32:54] situation, those underdog picks weren't

[32:56] really defensible. He posed a simple

[32:58] example. Imagine there are 1,000

[33:01] entries, 550. Pick Philly. Nobody picks

[33:03] Chicago. If you pick Chicago and on

[33:06] average only about 250 entries are left

[33:08] afterward, then your Survivor ticket has

[33:10] effectively earned something like a plus

[33:12] 330 money line gain in equity. Clar

[33:15] jumps in and says that logic is missing

[33:18] how survivor contests actually work. You

[33:20] can't just look at the average number of

[33:22] entries left. You have to look at the

[33:24] whole distribution of outcomes,

[33:25] especially the tales where multiple

[33:28] popular favorites all lose at once and

[33:30] you scoop a huge portion of the pool. He

[33:32] posts a spreadsheet that models a

[33:34] different different scenarios and argues

[33:36] that in that circle week, the Bears and

[33:38] Lions had much higher expected value

[33:40] than the Eagles once you account for

[33:43] field usage, tail outcomes, and future

[33:45] value. Fezic responds that says the

[33:48] sheet actually supports his view on

[33:50] which favorites and dogs were worse and

[33:53] the exchange basically ends with both

[33:55] sides convinced the other is missing a

[33:57] key point. So big debate on that one.

[34:02] I mean I I just thought it was really

[34:03] funny that Fez said feel free to correct

[34:05] my math and then Clar corrected his math

[34:08] and then Fezix thought it was still

[34:10] supporting his initial claim. But

[34:14] anybody here very focused on Survivor?

[34:16] Any knowledge of Survivor? Mike, I was

[34:19] maybe going to you on this one. How did

[34:21] you feel about it?

[34:22] >> So, I I don't play Survivor. Um it's

[34:25] during college football. I bet on

[34:26] college football there. I tried to look

[34:28] for a college football Survivor. They

[34:29] don't really exist at a high level. This

[34:31] is like the ultimate example of that

[34:34] tweet where it's the guy and he says

[34:35] about to skim some box scores and argue

[34:37] with people who watch the whole game.

[34:39] Like Clar is doing all this work. He's

[34:41] coming in showing Steve, hey, this is

[34:44] what you're missing. Here it is. Play

[34:46] out the distributions. Here's the EV.

[34:48] All this smart stuff. And Fezic is like,

[34:50] no, seems like you're wrong. I mean,

[34:52] it's just one of the alltime I've dug

[34:56] in. You know, Rob quoted it last week.

[34:58] I've dug in. I'm not changing my mind at

[35:00] this point. It doesn't matter what you

[35:02] say to Fez. He's not going to back down.

[35:04] He's not going to act like you want.

[35:06] This is the kind of strategy you never

[35:08] ha you have to have if you're ever going

[35:10] to avoid a bet. You need to go in, never

[35:12] listen to anybody else. Uh, you know,

[35:15] people say arguing with the pigeon. Uh,

[35:18] arguing with an idiot is like playing

[35:20] chess with a pigeon. He's just going to

[35:21] [ __ ] all over the board and stroke

[35:23] around like he won no matter the

[35:24] results. It doesn't matter what Clar

[35:26] says. Fezic not going to change and he's

[35:28] going to think he's right. So, I I don't

[35:31] know. I think anybody with a brain could

[35:33] look and see which side you want to be

[35:35] on in this argument, but I'll leave it

[35:37] to the panel if they disagree.

[35:38] >> So, look, go ahead. Go ahead. Look, 20

[35:41] years ago, I'm sure Fezzic was a winner.

[35:44] Like, the market was different, the

[35:46] world was different, and he built up,

[35:49] you know, these maybe friends and

[35:52] followers where he was the King Kong,

[35:54] like the alpha male. And and when you

[35:55] have that ingrained for long periods of

[35:58] times and you're really surrounded what

[36:00] I would effectively call like a lot of

[36:01] beta mindsets around you, it builds like

[36:04] this impenetrable wall and the game has

[36:08] changed. I mean, even I don't want to

[36:10] put it as simple as I don't know where

[36:11] he got his act I don't even know if

[36:12] actuary is a degree if he has a math

[36:14] degree or what he has. But there's just

[36:16] no way 30 years ago he probably got some

[36:19] degree and then he's like, "Yeah, I know

[36:21] what I'm doing." And you know, whatever

[36:23] these new kids are coming up with, he's

[36:24] like, "Oh, that doesn't make any sense

[36:26] to me." And the game has just not just

[36:28] sports betting but like you know he

[36:29] always digs into like he knows math but

[36:32] he doesn't like there was the math right

[36:34] there and he just didn't he just didn't

[36:35] understand it and he didn't know how to

[36:37] respond back to not understanding it. So

[36:39] he used his 101 15 years of people

[36:42] listening to him entrenched mindset and

[36:44] just like whatever I'm right doesn't

[36:46] matter what you what you post what you

[36:48] do. So it's like I don't know he he was

[36:52] a winner I'm sure and just the game has

[36:54] changed that's it and it passed by him

[36:56] and some people are able to adapt.

[36:58] Usually old age

[37:00] makes it harder to adapt, but it's just

[37:03] this obvious of he was used to some

[37:06] things a certain way and when he spoke

[37:08] and said something the other I'm sure 10

[37:11] years ago people disagreed with him then

[37:13] too but he was probably a little bit

[37:15] more right and his confidence has just

[37:17] built over time to it doesn't really

[37:19] matter what you tell him doesn't matter

[37:21] if he's down I don't know what he's down

[37:22] now like 100 units none of that stuff

[37:25] really matters because in the past he

[37:26] was always able to sort dismiss it and

[37:28] convince his audience and the game has

[37:30] changed, the world has changed and

[37:31] that's it. So, he's just going to be who

[37:33] he is even though the world is changing.

[37:35] That's it.

[37:36] >> I think it's a really good take, but I

[37:37] think you fail to consider that Fezzic,

[37:39] even if you take even if you count the

[37:41] really bad year he's having over the

[37:42] last five years he has won. And I think

[37:45] you're failing to consider he's a

[37:46] fivetime contest winner. So, maybe he is

[37:48] right about this one. Is it seven?

[37:50] Sorry, it's seven. you have to kind of

[37:52] do with uh you know there's Tom Brown.

[37:55] Sorry it's seven. Please do not sue me.

[37:58] Uh Kenish, you're a big fan of uh of

[38:00] Steve.

[38:02] How do you feel about this?

[38:04] >> Uh I mean like Dave said that you will

[38:06] never hear like he's he's a the sky is

[38:09] blue. Nope. Nope. It's it's it's a light

[38:12] blue type of guy. never admit even

[38:15] though Clar went as far to give you like

[38:18] you know a a novel here and a full

[38:20] breakdown of the math he just comes back

[38:23] with like nope no that that's not it

[38:26] >> I don't think the can understand what it

[38:28] says I'm if he's listening to this he's

[38:30] going to pretend that he does later like

[38:32] maybe punch into chat GBT but the truth

[38:34] is he doesn't know what to say back to

[38:36] this so he has to revert to his like

[38:38] attitude of I'm right that's it doesn't

[38:40] need to use facts those things don't

[38:41] matter

[38:43] >> yep I'm with I got nothing but to say

[38:45] but like to add a degree here just it's

[38:47] a classic fee interaction um and I miss

[38:50] I already miss no Fez November.

[38:53] >> Uh a quick PSA to all the actuaries out

[38:55] there. Clar's also an actuary. We have

[38:57] to stop actuary on actuary crime. It's

[39:00] really come to a I mean no actual

[39:02] crimes. It's just a bunch of nerds

[39:03] arguing about math on the internet. But

[39:05] I just really really feel bad for a

[39:08] former FSA actuary Steve Fezic. I do

[39:12] have to give Clar some credit here

[39:14] because even when he put up all this put

[39:17] in all this work to show the data to

[39:19] show the math he was able after Fez said

[39:22] nope he was able to say you can't be

[39:24] serious I'm done trying to help you and

[39:25] leave it he was able to just shut it

[39:27] down and say it is not worth the extra

[39:30] uh e extra effort for this conversation

[39:32] anymore. So I give him credit there.

[39:34] We'll we'll move on, but before we do,

[39:36] uh, let's hear about the college

[39:38] football show we have here at the Hammer

[39:40] Betting Network. We're heating up. We're

[39:41] heading towards conference

[39:42] championships. We had Brad Powers on the

[39:45] Hammer Daily yesterday. We have his

[39:47] co-host here with us today, Kenish. We

[39:49] have hit the books coming tonight, 5:00

[39:51] p. p.m. Eastern time. And we still have

[39:52] some Saturday content as well in the

[39:54] form of the halftime show. Can you talk

[39:56] at it? Can you give us any insight into

[39:57] what to expect out of the content in the

[39:59] next couple of weeks? Oh, we're locked

[40:01] and loaded for conference championship

[40:03] weekend, baby. The weekend you don't

[40:05] want to miss. Getting you right locked

[40:07] and loaded for the playoff rankings.

[40:09] Going to find out who's in, who's out.

[40:11] We'll break it down on Monday. We're

[40:12] going to break it down Friday for the

[40:14] conference championships. Then Monday,

[40:15] we'll talk playoff rankings. And then

[40:17] Friday, we'll talk playoffs. Going to be

[40:20] the best college football content on the

[40:22] market with the godfather of CFB, Brad

[40:24] Powers. Can't wait. The chat is always

[40:26] live. Look forward to it. Hit the books.

[40:28] the best college football show on the on

[40:31] the internet. And as a reminder for

[40:33] everyone, if you want to catch Hit the

[40:34] Books, you can go to the link in the

[40:36] description. I have all of the other

[40:37] channels we have in the Hammer Network

[40:39] linked in the description, such as Hit

[40:40] the Books, which is live at 5:00 p.m.

[40:42] tonight. That's Friday, 5:00 p. p.m.

[40:44] Eastern time, as it is every Monday and

[40:46] Friday. Now we can move into that next

[40:49] topic which I have dubbed an unlikely

[40:52] whale in this space because it was

[40:56] revealed that we had somebody as part of

[40:59] uh Nigel Faraj's camp

[41:02] was a frontman for Tony Bloom's betting

[41:06] company. Tony Bloom the chairman of

[41:07] Brighton Hov Albian in the Premier

[41:08] League has earned his fortune through

[41:10] sports betting. He's very successful in

[41:13] his work as a chairman as well might I

[41:15] add. But high court documents alleged

[41:16] that George Cot Cot Cotril, I hope I

[41:19] hope is how you say it, a close ally

[41:21] ally of Nidel Farage and prominent

[41:23] figure in Reform UK, acted as a front

[41:26] for that major gambling syndicate known

[41:29] as Star Lizard Betting Syndicate,

[41:31] allegedly used Cotwell's online betting

[41:34] accounts to place largecale bets. The

[41:36] filings come from a dispute between

[41:38] Bloom and former associate Ryan

[41:39] Dudfield, who claims he is owed up to

[41:41] 17.5 million from a profit share

[41:43] agreement, and the syndicate makes

[41:45] around 600 million a year. Documents

[41:48] claim Codell received 33% of winnings

[41:50] while Bloom syndicate covered any

[41:52] losses. They also referenced Codell's

[41:53] past wire fraud conviction and alleged

[41:56] he attempted to recruit UK clients to

[41:58] offshore crypto gambling platforms. So,

[42:02] I don't know. to me like I for this it

[42:05] feels like for the common the common

[42:08] person who isn't as aware of sports

[42:10] betting and the fact that people can win

[42:12] enough that they can no longer place

[42:14] wagers in their name like the concept

[42:16] that you can't bet on what an on a

[42:19] market that a sports book is offering is

[42:21] very foreign to me this is just maybe an

[42:24] unlikely connection but this doesn't

[42:25] feel like a very large story to me like

[42:27] maybe other people are seeing it but

[42:31] let's head over to you kesh maybe

[42:33] because you

[42:35] put it bluntly some experience maybe in

[42:38] this sort of space how do you agree with

[42:40] me do you think this is A BIG DEAL

[42:43] >> UM I mean I think [laughter] I think

[42:47] it's a great connect to have uh I found

[42:50] an interesting story here I I think part

[42:52] of part of betting at that level if

[42:55] you're going on like the the Tony Bloom

[42:58] scale is to have insider information at

[43:02] the highest level. And who better than

[43:05] especially in the new era of prediction

[43:08] market betting where it's not just like

[43:10] you know having uh somebody inside your

[43:12] sports league now it can be you know now

[43:14] it can be politics now it can be you

[43:15] know Google for a search engine uh I

[43:18] mean we're basically monetizing the

[43:20] globe on every type of you know insider

[43:23] trading is long dead so I think these

[43:26] type of connections now can make you

[43:30] like I'm assuming the Bloom organization

[43:33] and a lot of other syndicate out there

[43:36] trying to find people like this because

[43:40] of the like if you have somebody on the

[43:44] inside of you know like I saw the Google

[43:46] one with the search engines if you have

[43:48] somebody inside you know a political

[43:50] campaign the back in the you know I

[43:53] would say five years ago it was like oh

[43:55] yeah you might be able to you know

[43:56] leverage there be some good information

[43:58] you might be able to get some favors now

[44:00] it's like one to one you can immediately

[44:02] turn that info into like absolute like

[44:06] liquid cash millions of dollars. So, I I

[44:10] don't think it's surprising at all and I

[44:11] think you only see like this is only

[44:13] going in one direction.

[44:15] >> All right. Uh over to you Porter on this

[44:17] one. How do you feel about it? Yeah, I

[44:20] mean one I was going through the

[44:22] comments and I think a lot of the

[44:23] comments were just trying to connect

[44:25] that somehow Bloom is like throwing

[44:27] soccer matches and it like most so I

[44:31] think a lot of people read stories and

[44:32] don't even know what they're reading

[44:35] like they don't really like they didn't

[44:36] understand the point of the story down

[44:38] there based off the comments or they

[44:40] probably just didn't even read it and

[44:41] just started making comments. Uh that's

[44:43] an interesting take that you know having

[44:46] it's now like you're no longer just

[44:48] betting sports you're you're you can bet

[44:50] every market and you know this is

[44:52] probably a push back against why maybe

[44:54] not everything should be predicting the

[44:56] future and why that can

[45:00] once market makers become bigger they're

[45:02] going to have to make decisions on

[45:03] certain markets of what to market make

[45:06] for and what not to and there will

[45:08] probably be some type of test as to hey

[45:12] is this susceptible to insider trading

[45:14] or not. On another note, I just want to

[45:16] say I've I've spoken to traders at Star

[45:19] Lizard and the stuff that they tell you,

[45:21] it's just honestly like crazy. I I think

[45:24] a lot of the skill that Bloom or his

[45:26] organization had was just convincing

[45:28] people to get down huge for them because

[45:30] of their name. Cuz some of the stuff

[45:31] that I've spoken with where they want

[45:33] these tiny markets and crazy large bet

[45:36] sizing and then you like ask them, hey,

[45:37] how good's your stuff? And they tell you

[45:39] like 2%. you see this like crazy

[45:42] disconnect from like Europeans coming in

[45:44] and speaking with Americans at events

[45:46] about like what's good, what's expected,

[45:49] what's not, and they have a very

[45:51] different view of sports betting than a

[45:53] lot of think people in America do. But

[45:55] again, I I guess people just don't know

[45:59] who the big players in this industry

[46:00] are. And for people, this was like the

[46:03] first time to see that Tony Bloom, which

[46:04] is effectively the number one or number

[46:06] two biggest better. So it is kind of

[46:08] strange to see people have no idea what

[46:10] this is. But then again,

[46:12] you know, people a lot of people are

[46:15] clueless in this industry, especially

[46:16] the casuals and this connection of, hey,

[46:18] wait, people can't bet on their

[46:20] accounts. That's weird. Why? And but

[46:22] then they never take it to the next step

[46:23] as to why. So for for the replies that

[46:26] say he's throwing soccer matches, he has

[46:30] done like the the turnaround the club

[46:32] have had under his tenure as chairman is

[46:35] is truly remar like unbelievably

[46:38] remarkable. So very very much doubt

[46:41] there's any chance there's anything in

[46:43] regards to that. But um on this topic uh

[46:47] what do you have to add Mike?

[46:48] >> Uh to be honest not much. I don't really

[46:51] the actual business size of sports

[46:53] betting is where you can really become

[46:56] the mega wealthy and I am that's not in

[46:59] my bag as the kids say so I don't know

[47:01] not really no comments

[47:03] >> no problem we can move and before we do

[47:07] reminder if you're enjoying the show so

[47:08] far make sure you've hit that like

[47:10] button make sure you're subscribed to

[47:12] the channel and if you have any opinion

[47:13] on anything we talked about during the

[47:15] show today comment it down below

[47:16] sometimes we'll feature them in their

[47:18] own segments on this show as Well, it's

[47:20] been a couple of weeks since we did one

[47:22] of these, so nothing for this week in

[47:23] terms of the comment, but perhaps we

[47:25] have one next next week. You can blame

[47:26] the lazy Americans for taking the

[47:28] Thanksgiving off and not giving us a

[47:30] circle back Friday last week. But we're

[47:33] back to another topic here. Started with

[47:35] Jonah at stakes Royale who said, "If I

[47:38] started over again and had sub 20k

[47:41] bankroll, I would find a sharp and give

[47:43] them my account. Zero regrets, but the

[47:45] amount of time I could have saved what I

[47:48] made my whole first year of betting

[47:50] could have been made in a week via free

[47:52] roll. Hashtag not an ad. Now, uh, I

[47:57] usually pick the person I want to lead

[47:59] off, but Porter, you were very

[48:01] interested in taking this one first, so

[48:03] have at it.

[48:04] >> Yeah. Well, first of all, that's an ad,

[48:06] but [laughter]

[48:07] not an ad that he wrote at the end. Good

[48:08] one. But uh yeah, I wanted to lead off

[48:10] with this one and I this is by far my

[48:13] favorite slide that I've been a part on

[48:15] a show. Uh this slide is the epitome of

[48:20] understanding what you want in sports

[48:22] betting. So if your goal and I believe

[48:25] quite a few people's goal is to make

[48:27] money, then they really should think

[48:30] about who they are as a person and who

[48:32] they are as a person. Are you an

[48:34] engineer? Do you have a mathematical

[48:36] background? Are you a networker? Do you

[48:38] have the gift of gab? Are you able to

[48:40] make good connections? And the moment

[48:42] you understand who you are, then you get

[48:44] to make the best decision possible in

[48:46] this industry. You get to decide how to

[48:48] actually make money.

[48:51] I want to share this with the audience.

[48:52] If I started again, and by the way, I

[48:54] had a very slow start in this industry.

[48:57] I would do this. This is what I would do

[49:00] instead of trying to handicap. instead

[49:02] of some people how they pay for touts,

[49:04] instead of some people how they pay for

[49:06] uh odds screens, you have to understand

[49:08] who you are and you have to understand

[49:10] your goals in this industry. And this

[49:12] quote, even though I've actually had

[49:13] disagreements with this guy before,

[49:15] well, I guess that's a lot of people in

[49:16] this industry, but this quote here is

[49:19] literally one of the most beautiful

[49:21] lines. And if the audience looked at

[49:23] this and decided, hey, I want to achieve

[49:25] XYZ in this industry, this quote here

[49:28] should make it very clear to them what

[49:30] the best way to do that is. You decide

[49:31] what type of person you are. You decide

[49:33] what makes the most sense for you. You

[49:35] decide what your goal is and then you

[49:37] take action. And for most people, the

[49:40] right action is not to sit behind an odd

[49:43] screen. The right action is not to find

[49:45] because there are some winning touts.

[49:46] It's hard to like use their information.

[49:48] It's not to try to figure out who the

[49:50] touts that win are. It's not a million

[49:52] things. It's just sometimes as simple as

[49:55] if me as an individual, I have the gift

[49:57] of gab. I'm a networker. This is the

[49:59] right thing for me. And by the way, this

[50:02] while some people say it's not sports

[50:04] betting, this is the business of sports

[50:05] betting. So it's another segment and

[50:07] they shouldn't be ashamed of it. When

[50:09] you collect at the end of a month when

[50:11] you're working with someone or end of a

[50:12] week, you've got that money. Whether you

[50:14] were the person putting in the bet,

[50:16] whether you were the person using the

[50:17] odds screen, if your goal was to turn a

[50:19] profit, this is the same thing. So don't

[50:21] let people shame you when you're like,

[50:22] "Oh, you don't know anything about

[50:23] sports betting. You don't know what

[50:24] you're doing." No. Just like some people

[50:26] in here consider touting a part of

[50:28] sports but not in this chat you know on

[50:30] Twitter consider touting sports betting

[50:32] consider affiliate sports betting if at

[50:34] the end of the day your goal is to make

[50:36] money and you've identified that your

[50:37] best skill is the person who's a

[50:39] networker or gift of gap this is the way

[50:41] for you.

[50:42] >> Okay interesting take I like it. Uh I

[50:45] will play devil's advocate because

[50:48] you're often somebody who's seeking out

[50:49] accounts to get down on. So, do you feel

[50:53] like there's maybe even like a personal

[50:55] bias in that? Like I'm not saying you're

[50:57] fishing for accounts.

[50:59] >> Check this out. So, I'm willing to say

[51:00] in one second if you are a winner, you

[51:03] are a person who's going to turn profit

[51:04] and you have the time to do so.

[51:06] Remember, time is also important factor

[51:08] in this. You should not be handing

[51:09] accounts off because accounts, you're

[51:11] going to lose the accounts and if you

[51:13] don't have the skill of networking, you

[51:15] should not hand them off because you're

[51:16] not going to have more in the future.

[51:17] Now, that's a skill you can develop just

[51:20] like you can develop reading an odd

[51:21] screen. But absolutely, 100% there are

[51:24] people that it fits for and there are

[51:25] people that it doesn't fit for. What's

[51:27] important is not to be pressured into

[51:29] trying to win in a certain way, but

[51:31] being cognizant of what you're good at

[51:34] and moving in that direction.

[51:36] >> Interesting. I like it. Uh Mike, do you

[51:39] agree? Disagree?

[51:41] I coming into this, I thought for sure I

[51:43] was going to disagree with what Porter

[51:45] was going to say because I thought he

[51:46] was going to agree, you know, just sell

[51:47] over your account. But I think what he

[51:49] said about knowing what your skill set

[51:51] is and knowing where your strength is is

[51:53] probably the most true, you know, way to

[51:55] look at this that you can. You have to

[51:57] know what you're good at. Why are you

[51:59] just like you need to have need to know

[52:01] why you have an edge in an individual

[52:03] bet, you need to know why you have an

[52:05] edge in whatever you're doing to make

[52:07] money in the stack. So if you are

[52:09] someone who wants to kind of come up

[52:12] with numbers to do projections originate

[52:15] I would say actually it doesn't matter

[52:17] how much money you get you need to use

[52:19] those accounts you need to go through

[52:20] the pains of winning losing etc. If you

[52:23] are like Porter said if you have the

[52:25] ability to go get accounts and do that

[52:27] is the easier way in this industry right

[52:29] now to make money. Um, and I would say

[52:32] that like there's a lot of people who

[52:35] worry about the way they get it and

[52:36] they, you know, I'm viewed as honorable

[52:38] or not honorable, but you know, there's,

[52:40] you know, a prestige that comes with I

[52:42] can beat this whatever line. Uh, you

[52:44] know, I beat main markets only. I bet

[52:46] game day only. I used to kind of think,

[52:48] oh, he beats whatever garbage markets.

[52:50] Now I'm like, oh, you got down on

[52:52] garbage markets. Good for you. I think

[52:54] that people really they want to try to

[52:59] win in only the way that they want to

[53:01] win. Uh it's like you know the Jeff and

[53:03] Gunny quote. He's every player says they

[53:05] want to win but do you want to do what

[53:06] you have to to win? So if you say you

[53:09] want to be an effective better or you

[53:10] say you want to be part of an effective

[53:12] operation, you have to know what your

[53:15] skill sets are. And for a lot of people,

[53:17] yeah, you should hand over your

[53:18] accounts. For others, maybe not. But

[53:21] deciding kind of where the value in an

[53:23] account is is something that you know

[53:25] you have to be real honest with yourself

[53:26] and you know be constantly judging.

[53:30] >> All right, over to you Kesh. What are

[53:32] your thoughts on this one?

[53:34] >> I got nothing. I thought that was well

[53:36] summarized. I thought uh you know you

[53:37] got both sides of the play there. Um and

[53:39] I don't have anything uh you know

[53:41] particularly good to add.

[53:43] >> All right. Well, we all have our own

[53:46] skill sets. We all know our skill sets

[53:47] as they said Kesh.

[53:49] we can move into uh the next topic on

[53:52] this show. Before we do, let's hear

[53:54] about the Discord that we have at the

[53:56] Hammer Betting Network. We know the

[53:58] Hammer is truly like a family. Familiar

[54:01] faces, inside jokes, and the one person

[54:03] that everyone likes picking on. Well,

[54:05] here's your chance to continue the

[54:06] conversation. Join our new Hammer

[54:08] Discord. A chance for us to discuss all

[54:10] the games and news, share our favorite

[54:11] bets, and interact with your favorite

[54:13] Hammer creators. discord.gg/hammer

[54:15] GG/hammer to join now or visit a link in

[54:18] the description. Next up, we have a

[54:19] topic that was brought up by CEO of the

[54:21] Hammer and panelist on the Monday

[54:23] edition of Circleback, Rob Pizzola, who

[54:24] said, "There is no sweat in sports

[54:26] betting quite like an NBA big man over

[54:29] 0.5 assists. Every touch, every handoff,

[54:32] every kickout, it is such a rush. You're

[54:34] living and dying on a single pass for 48

[54:36] minutes." Uncut Gambit Gems replied and

[54:40] said, "If I if ever something were to

[54:41] spark the debate about whether an air

[54:43] ball falling to the hands of a teammate

[54:44] for an easy bucket was an assist, it

[54:46] would be something like this. You keep

[54:48] chucking those threes, 7 foot3, Donovan

[54:50] Klingan. Everyone else, please make your

[54:52] way to within a foot of the basket and

[54:54] pray for the best. Mike, you bet a lot

[54:58] on NBA. You do NBA player props, but do

[55:01] you feel like this is the best sweat in

[55:03] sports betting? If not, what is?"

[55:06] >> No. And I'll say this, I think betting

[55:09] on props makes the experience of

[55:11] watching sports way worse. I really

[55:13] dislike watching a sporting event that I

[55:15] have the prop on. You're not cheering

[55:16] for the outcome of the game, which is

[55:18] normal. You're cheering for this weird

[55:20] kind of mixture of events, especially if

[55:23] it's something where it's a individual

[55:25] player thing where I'm watching a player

[55:27] and he has an open three and I'm

[55:28] yelling, "Don't shoot, don't shoot." you

[55:30] know, I that's not something it kind of

[55:32] goes against your nature as a sports fan

[55:35] and what you're cheering for. So,

[55:37] personally, I bet a ton of props. I

[55:38] don't love sweating out props. And if

[55:41] we're going to totally go DJ and the

[55:44] most like intense sweat, I think that

[55:46] it's for sure first basket scored in the

[55:48] NBA. I love a good first basket. It's

[55:51] almost no time. It's like the most

[55:55] thrilling. Watching someone pass up an

[55:57] open shot when you have their first

[55:58] basket over is one of the most upsetting

[56:01] things that you can have happen.

[56:02] Sometimes it will go on for two minutes.

[56:04] Nobody's scoring. You're like, "What's

[56:05] going on?" Absolutely love it. Uh, and I

[56:08] think the longer the bet, like I think

[56:10] Rob described the worst sweat you can

[56:12] have, it's.5 the entire time. Like, what

[56:15] [laughter] the hell? Who wants to watch

[56:16] that? Oh, you get to be nervous the

[56:17] entire game, nothing good to happen.

[56:19] Like, my god, I can't believe that

[56:22] that's his take. I think honestly he

[56:24] might if he wanted to come up with a

[56:26] worse market. I'm not sure he could.

[56:28] >> I I feel like the the sweat for an

[56:32] under.5 assist is is greater than the

[56:34] over because you're just living and

[56:37] dying every shot not going in. Um Kesh,

[56:40] what do you think is the the best sweat

[56:42] in sports betting? Do you think

[56:45] >> I I don't want any part of that either

[56:47] over on like the one guy you're like

[56:49] watching the guy? I kind of agree uh

[56:51] with PB here just in terms of like

[56:53] especially on something like random like

[56:55] that. To me, I prefer something with a

[56:58] little bit more like a little bit more

[57:01] juice like a first where you're getting

[57:03] uh you know squared up where like you

[57:05] got a 50 to1 first touchdown score or

[57:07] something. Teams in the red zone. It's

[57:10] some like rando tight end. You see them

[57:12] going like two tights. They're running

[57:13] like the jumbo package. You're like

[57:15] please play action. Please play action.

[57:17] something that gets a little bit more

[57:18] like an SGP standpoint of like, you

[57:21] know, f proof first basket core gonna be

[57:23] a three something like that. So I I to

[57:26] me I'm with Mike of like I don't want

[57:29] the full game like potential misery of

[57:34] of any type of like sweat there. Give me

[57:36] something that even has a little bit

[57:37] better odds. It's a little bit more fun.

[57:39] That seems awful.

[57:42] I have to say I have a tweet I just

[57:45] pulled up. I remembered it from peanut

[57:48] better December 17th 2024. Betting under

[57:52] 0.53s is the worst sweat in sports.

[57:54] Anyone who bets this and isn't a

[57:56] professional semi-professional better is

[57:58] an absolute psycho. So essentially a

[58:02] very similar bet and Rob saying it's his

[58:04] favorite. So I think maybe we do a test

[58:07] here, figure out what's going on, you

[58:08] know, in the old noggin for Rob.

[58:10] >> So I I think Rob's been betting a long

[58:12] time. So, I think what he meant by this

[58:14] tweet is this is the number one anxiety

[58:17] bet. So, if you really want your

[58:18] cortisol level peaking and you really

[58:20] want to feel alive, this is the kind of

[58:22] bet. By the way, we do these bets all

[58:24] the time and it's like the most painful,

[58:26] but maybe that's what you know makes you

[58:28] alive a little bit when you're feeling

[58:30] that like, oh, bringing out the max

[58:32] emotions, you know, when the event

[58:33] happens or doesn't happen.

[58:35] >> That's fair. It does say there is no

[58:37] sweat in sports betting quite like this,

[58:39] which is okay. I I guess just say I

[58:41] guess I read it initially when you say

[58:43] there's nothing like this. It means it's

[58:44] like the best, but I could see the kind

[58:47] of point there. I do like I do like a

[58:49] first basket bet. Like

[58:50] >> I I did want to mention something to

[58:52] touch on something PB said. I I would

[58:55] say betting on props really really

[58:57] corrupts your viewing experience. You're

[59:00] actually watching cuz I have a hard time

[59:02] watching with friends sports, but

[59:04] sometimes they'll watch and they're

[59:05] like, "What are you rooting for?" And I

[59:06] can't I can't even explain. I'm not I'm

[59:08] not even watching the same game they're

[59:10] watching. Like, think about an NFL game

[59:11] where your QB has a couple rushes and

[59:13] they're like, "What are you sweating?"

[59:14] Well, I I'd like them to be up by seven

[59:17] with less than two minutes left on the

[59:19] clock so they can kneel three times and

[59:21] he can get negative five yards and then

[59:23] I win my prop. And they're like, "Wait,

[59:25] what? What are you watching?"

[59:27] >> You're doing the weird game state math

[59:28] in your head where you're like, "Well,

[59:29] if he scores, is that actually better

[59:31] for him?" Like on the other thing. Yeah.

[59:33] I I think people talk about, oh, you

[59:35] know, does betting like, oh, does people

[59:38] betting on sports now, will it ruin

[59:39] their enjoyment of it? I do think there

[59:41] might be something to uh betting on

[59:43] props ruining because you're no longer

[59:45] cheering for the things that we've

[59:46] always been cheering for, which is a

[59:48] win. Your incentives and the players

[59:49] aren't aligned anymore.

[59:51] >> Just just bet so many props that like

[59:53] each each outcome doesn't really doesn't

[59:55] really affect your bets enough.

[59:57] >> But but it's a beautiful comment. You

[59:59] are fundamentally watching a different

[60:01] game than the casual person when you're

[60:03] betting on props. You are rooting for

[60:05] things that are unnatural in the flow of

[60:07] a game. Often

[60:09] >> I think my favorite sweat is a first

[60:12] touchdown bet. I don't think there's

[60:13] like a prime time first touchdown bet. I

[60:15] think that's my favorite. Like just the

[60:17] rush. You're in the red zone and the you

[60:20] have third string tight end. You see him

[60:22] come into the game for a snap. What a

[60:25] rush. He may not get the ball. So, not

[60:27] the no TD bet.

[60:29] >> Not uh like a Jonathan Taylor, no TD.

[60:32] That that doesn't sound fair.

[60:33] >> Oh, no. No, no TD for the game.

[60:35] >> Oh, TD for the game.

[60:36] >> Long gone. See, you know,

[60:37] >> and and not only that, Jacob, you get

[60:40] the sweat afterwards of seeing if you

[60:42] took a bad line, if they're going to pay

[60:44] it out, and then the sweat after that,

[60:46] if they actually are after they said

[60:47] they wouldn't, you get two additional

[60:49] sweats on Monday and Tuesday,

[60:51] >> right? Just build build on the equity of

[60:53] sweats. That That's uh that's how the

[60:54] pros do it, I think, these days. Now

[60:57] final t final main topic for the show

[60:59] today comes from and initially it came

[61:01] from Wesley Steinberg a parody NFL

[61:04] reporter on Twitter who does some I

[61:06] think some funny content and said Giants

[61:09] defensive end or DE Abdul Carter will

[61:11] miss the first drive tonight for

[61:12] disciplinary reasons after getting

[61:14] caught watching porn in a team meeting

[61:16] when his headphones disconnected and he

[61:19] actually did miss quite a lot of the

[61:21] early stages of the game which led

[61:23] people to like quest wait is there

[61:25] actually some truth to this and underdog

[61:28] NFL underdog as we all know now are

[61:31] great for getting injury information

[61:33] players leaving games coming back to

[61:35] games but they decided to run with the

[61:37] meme here and said status alert Abdul

[61:38] Carter

[61:40] parenthesis pornography has entered

[61:43] Monday's game and a lot of people found

[61:46] it funny some people like Carter Donic

[61:49] at C Donic one says I don't think a

[61:51] super famous betting account should be

[61:52] tweeting misinformation from obvious

[61:54] parody accounts just because it's funny.

[61:57] Um, I saw you laughing a little bit,

[62:00] Mike there, Kenish, you kind of

[62:01] chuckled, but let's start with you,

[62:02] Kenish, on this one. Do you see a

[62:04] problem with this? Do you agree?

[62:06] >> Uh, I mean, I I listen, I got a I got a

[62:10] little chuckle out of it. I got a good

[62:12] laugh, you know, when it happened. Um, I

[62:14] I think this is maybe gripping the club

[62:16] a little tight on, you know, Carter's

[62:18] part here. Um, I I don't mind like if

[62:21] they were just blatantly tweeting like

[62:25] something false or they like, you know,

[62:27] like when a Spanky's crew is tweeting

[62:29] something that they picked up and then

[62:30] that like, you know, from a burner

[62:32] account and it gets tweeted out like

[62:33] that. Sure. Then I then I'd be like, yo,

[62:35] you got to correct that. This like eh I

[62:38] mean, you know, a little bit of a

[62:39] harmless joke here. So, I'm not gonna uh

[62:42] not going to come down too hard.

[62:45] >> How about you, uh, Mike? Uh, I do think

[62:48] it's funny. I don't think like they're a

[62:51] free Twitter account that you get to

[62:52] follow without paying a subscription. I

[62:54] don't think you get to tell them what

[62:56] they want get to tweet. At the same

[62:58] time, it would annoy me if I was

[62:59] following that account for news and they

[63:00] tweeted this. I have fallen for they

[63:03] they've done this with NBA before and uh

[63:05] you know back in a young PB's life he

[63:07] was a bit of a you know green bean as

[63:10] you would say at some of the Hall of

[63:11] Famers [laughter] uh sports book down

[63:13] there and I have gone and immediately

[63:16] tried to launch and then wait like what

[63:18] what did it say? So uh I would be

[63:20] annoyed if I followed them but they

[63:22] still can do what they want and it is

[63:23] kind of funny. So I am good on all

[63:26] accounts here.

[63:27] >> How about you Porter? Yeah, you know,

[63:29] sports betting season, NFL season, you

[63:31] know, they do lots of sports. It's it's

[63:33] a long grind. So sometimes, you know,

[63:35] someone's just trying to be a little

[63:36] funny, trying to take a little breather.

[63:38] I think sometimes it gets lost like what

[63:40] a lot of these companies do and how much

[63:42] work there probably is to be done to be

[63:45] good at whatever it is that you're

[63:46] doing. So, you know, give them a little

[63:48] break. But I would be

[63:50] >> too are just running this industry. for

[63:53] some reason they've allowed it for free

[63:54] for no like I don't think anybody can

[63:57] complain at what uh underdog has given

[63:59] the you know semi-casual or

[64:01] semi-professional better where they are

[64:03] able to get information just on one

[64:05] Twitter account like it's really become

[64:06] the prime aggregation and it's some

[64:08] daily fantasy thing where it doesn't

[64:10] actually benefit them. So if they get to

[64:12] if they want to make a porn joke every

[64:13] once in a while let them go.

[64:15] >> I see both sides of it but I'm also

[64:17] chronically online enough to know this

[64:19] is clearly a joke. So again, I see both

[64:22] sides of it, but like I think like you

[64:24] said it best, it's it's a free account.

[64:26] They can kind of do whatever they want

[64:27] there. Final segment on the show is the

[64:29] chopping block. We got three things in

[64:31] the chopping block today. Stuff that

[64:32] just made the cut for the show, but not

[64:35] main segments, not full segments on the

[64:37] show. First one comes from one of our

[64:39] former panelists here on the Friday

[64:40] show. Jeff Nadoo says the best book to

[64:44] ever exist and it's not even close

[64:45] talking about five dimes because we had

[64:47] beaten the bookie reminiscing about the

[64:49] old five dimes and five dimes Tony. Jeff

[64:52] Nadoo claims that Tony is still alive.

[64:55] Investigation sitdown coming soon.

[64:57] Porter, you have a a Five Dimes Tony

[64:59] story I think you wanted to share.

[65:01] >> Yeah, I mean I miss Five Dimes. They

[65:03] used to put up some crazy sports, high

[65:05] school sports. But yeah, my funny story

[65:08] is I almost quit sports betting because

[65:10] of Five Dimes Betting. Somehow, not on

[65:13] my account, not with my telephone

[65:14] number, uh Tony and one of his drunken

[65:17] stupers called me and actually told me

[65:19] that if one more of my friends comes on

[65:21] his site to consider a donation to Costa

[65:24] Rica. And that was the first time in

[65:25] this industry I was like, "Wait, huh?

[65:29] world's a little different out here than

[65:30] uh you know just like uh what the young

[65:32] kids are used to on like legal sports

[65:34] books and you know I almost quit sports

[65:37] betting because of what Tony did to me

[65:38] but uh you know if is he alive is he not

[65:41] alive you know Jeff likes to uh create

[65:44] some uh stories that out you know make

[65:48] up some stories sometimes

[65:50] >> well we'll see you on the sitdown video

[65:52] coming soon uh Kenishh any personal

[65:55] experience with five dimes Tony

[65:57] >> uh yeah I yes I got uh multiple verbal

[66:01] lashings. Uh I never got on the phone

[66:03] with him, but he gave me gave me it a

[66:05] few times in the chat. Um I do love that

[66:08] was a great it was a really legendary

[66:10] book in its day. Um

[66:11] >> the world.

[66:12] >> Yeah. Also,

[66:14] Naidu knows how to uh play the content

[66:18] game. I'll say that. Do I think Tony is

[66:21] No, that's like the same people are

[66:22] like, "Oh, Tupac's still alive out

[66:23] there." No. If you haven't heard from

[66:25] somebody in, you know, x amount of

[66:26] years, the aims razor says they're dead.

[66:31] And

[66:33] it makes perfect sense that somebody

[66:36] working for that [ __ ] would off him.

[66:38] Like if [laughter] you said no to him at

[66:40] all, like and you work for him and

[66:42] you're like, "Oh, we got an opportunity

[66:43] to kill and rob this guy." Yeah, I can

[66:45] see people taking that.

[66:47] >> Anything to add, Mike?

[66:48] >> Uh, I didn't get to I didn't bet on Five

[66:51] Dimes ever. was just right before my

[66:53] time, you know. It's, you know,

[66:55] >> yeah,

[66:55] >> something I missed out on. I feel really

[66:57] like I missed a right of package or

[66:59] passage. So, that's upsetting.

[67:02] >> All right, next one. On the chopping

[67:04] block, we have uh a tweet about a Google

[67:07] insider who has officially been exposed

[67:10] apparently on Poly Market. The dudes had

[67:12] profited a million dollars in a single

[67:14] day betting on Google search markets.

[67:16] Google accidentally pushed the results

[67:18] early, then removed them, but not before

[67:19] it revealed he went 22 of 23 on his bets

[67:23] and ballooned to 3.9 million in open

[67:25] positions. This isn't a lucky streak. He

[67:28] previously made 150k predicting the

[67:29] early release of Gemini 3.0 before

[67:32] results were out. At this point, it's

[67:34] obvious he's a Google insider milking

[67:36] Poly Market for Quick Money. It's one of

[67:38] the wildest things I've seen on the

[67:39] platform. The user was Alpha Raccoon. in

[67:42] the replies. Apparently, the user has

[67:44] now changed their name, but with the

[67:45] history of their betting, you can still

[67:47] see it is the same account. Maybe

[67:48] highlighting a little bit of being

[67:50] worried about this quote unquote expose

[67:53] being posted here. Mike, do you I mean,

[67:57] this is bound to happen with prediction

[67:58] markets, people taking inside

[68:00] information and taking advantage of the

[68:01] markets. Do you feel like this is an

[68:03] inherent problem?

[68:05] >> So, first of all, Trump no cashes. That

[68:08] was a big win for uh PB in the books

[68:10] betting on this market. So, um I think

[68:12] with Poly Market right now, their

[68:15] offshore stuff, you can create an

[68:17] account whenever you want. So, it's not

[68:18] tied to your name. There's no like way I

[68:21] mean I'm sure there's some way they can

[68:22] trace it back to you, but it's much

[68:23] harder. Uh I think that makes it so that

[68:26] people like start fresh accounts

[68:27] immediately dump into positions on

[68:30] things where they have insider

[68:31] information, then delete the account. I

[68:33] I think having

[68:35] one account that you have now that it's

[68:37] on shore will help people out. Um, so I

[68:40] think that that will probably reduce

[68:41] some. If you're talking about insider

[68:42] trading, I don't have any verifiable

[68:45] facts. There's no stats. My intuition

[68:47] and what I've traded, it seems like it

[68:49] happens a lot more on the site where you

[68:51] don't have to put your name to it than

[68:52] it does uh at Khi, for example. So, I

[68:54] think that that's part of it that should

[68:56] get cleaned up some, but if somebody has

[68:59] information, somebody's going to bet

[69:01] that information. So, uh, we talked

[69:04] about it earlier with Bloom. there's

[69:05] going to be a situation where it leaks

[69:07] now that everything's getting bet,

[69:08] there's going to be more people leaking

[69:10] stuff. Um, I do like how he only got he

[69:12] did miss one. That was good way to cover

[69:14] yourself there. He made sure that, you

[69:16] know, nobody would be too suspicious if

[69:18] he went 22 of 23. So, good way to cover

[69:21] himself there. I will say the only to

[69:23] stick up for Alpha Raccoon here.

[69:25] Everybody was so sure that the Nobel

[69:27] Peace Prize was insider traded and there

[69:30] was long exposees written and then if we

[69:32] figured out that actually the guy just

[69:33] was scraping the Nobel website and had

[69:36] uh uncovered an edge. So maybe there's a

[69:39] chance that he's able to find something.

[69:40] I don't think that's the case, but

[69:42] everybody was very sure on the Nobel

[69:44] Prize too.

[69:45] >> This is like this is like when you know

[69:47] the first song in the Super Bowl and

[69:49] then you purposely like put the wrong

[69:50] song also on the same account at the end

[69:52] and be like, "Oh, look at that. What are

[69:54] the odds?" Uh 22 and 23. Guy shouldn't

[69:56] have missed at all. What What was the

[69:58] point of that? No, that doesn't that

[69:59] doesn't.

[70:02] >> Yeah, the scent. Maybe if they can't

[70:03] smell that [laughter] throws them off

[70:05] the scent. Uh yeah, I mean, you know, I

[70:08] think we're still to be honest, we're

[70:10] just still kind of in the wild wild west

[70:12] of of of prediction markets. And I mean,

[70:16] this is people's sign of like one, be

[70:18] careful. to read the rules of what these

[70:21] sites are are, you know, these markets

[70:23] are saying, but like, hey guys, wake up.

[70:26] There's some opportunity to make some

[70:27] money. I I know, unless we see a news

[70:29] article, this guy's going to jail from

[70:31] his uh, you know, USDC address that he

[70:34] deposited probably from a ledger that

[70:36] his third cousin bought that no one

[70:37] knows where it's from. So, you know, I

[70:39] don't know. I think this is the wild

[70:41] wild west. There are opportunities to be

[70:43] had. Um, effectively, my guess is like

[70:48] in the 1930s, 1940s, I don't know when.

[70:51] This is probably what the stock market

[70:53] looked like, you know, in the very early

[70:55] days before regulation. And I know we're

[70:57] being it's regulated right now, but this

[71:01] is the beginning of an industry that

[71:03] will go through changes over time,

[71:06] >> but this doesn't look good.

[71:07] >> Your thoughts, Kesh?

[71:09] >> Uh, I mean, I respect the hustle. I'll

[71:12] say that. uh if you know if uh I I would

[71:16] if I had this info it'd be very tough

[71:18] not I mean also I don't know how much

[71:20] this guy's making but uh you know 1.2

[71:23] mil in a short period of time

[71:26] if he's if he I don't know how high up

[71:28] he is but he's probably doing a lot

[71:29] better than what the salary they're

[71:31] paying him. So, uh, un also probably

[71:33] wasn't thinking like some, you know,

[71:36] some [ __ ] on Twitter is going to like I

[71:38] screenshot my best. And now, now, you

[71:40] know, if I'm Google, though, I'm I'm

[71:42] probably like I'm probably giving this

[71:45] guy opinion. You're probably doing some

[71:46] investigation. Say, sir, uh, you know,

[71:48] we're going to have to let you go. So, I

[71:50] don't think he's doing anything illegal.

[71:53] Um, but

[71:55] pro I don't know if he's going to be

[71:56] working at Google much longer.

[71:58] >> Yeah, that's an interesting take, by the

[72:00] way. Is this something by the way when a

[72:02] company you know some companies are too

[72:04] small it doesn't really matter but this

[72:05] is Google so is this even on poly market

[72:08] to really adjust this is an internal

[72:11] leak that makes Google first and

[72:13] foremost look bad secondary I think poly

[72:15] market look bad so when these big

[72:17] companies have this is this a poly

[72:18] market scandal or is this a Google

[72:20] scandal

[72:22] >> also if you're a top down better I would

[72:23] say there's opportunities in trying to

[72:26] figure out if you can pattern match and

[72:28] stuff like that read markets better than

[72:30] you know some dummy like me can. So uh

[72:32] for the top down guys out there it's

[72:34] kind of a whole new challenge uh with

[72:36] these markets kind of you know adjusting

[72:38] and seeing how they're moving and stuff

[72:40] like that and finding the signal and the

[72:42] noise. So uh it is a lot you know it's a

[72:45] lot more like a stock market in the

[72:47] sense that the past trade history you

[72:49] can see much more clearly uh which makes

[72:51] it you know more visible.

[72:53] >> Can you see what people have pending

[72:56] bets on poly market? Yeah, you can see

[72:59] the account but it's not tied to anyone.

[73:01] So, but you can see like one person has

[73:03] 80% of the liquidity in no and or has

[73:07] accumulated like I can see if Domer was

[73:10] on no Trump, he was I hopefully can say

[73:13] that uh he was one of the top accounts

[73:15] on no. So, I I was reading through who

[73:18] had yes and no in that market. Uh so, I

[73:21] did see him or not him but other

[73:23] accounts and kind of check out what they

[73:25] were betting on before. So, wouldn't it

[73:26] make more sense like why why give this

[73:30] information out? Why not use this to bet

[73:34] on Google Trends?

[73:36] >> So, so he uh this market essentially

[73:40] graded already. So, this like just

[73:42] graded it was the year's number one

[73:44] search person. So, it was

[73:46] >> No, I know. But like now with this

[73:48] information, if more bets come up with

[73:50] the same sort of pattern,

[73:52] >> he'll start a new account and not trade

[73:54] off a Alpha Raccoon. I would guess if I

[73:56] was that Google guy. So if you're

[73:58] anyone, you can't find his information.

[74:00] So if you want to tail alpha raccoon,

[74:02] you can't because he's now operating on

[74:04] you can only see who holds the current

[74:06] market. So you can't see like he'll

[74:08] never use that account again. So you

[74:09] don't know.

[74:10] >> But I'm saying well hold on. It's more

[74:12] powerful than that. What about all the

[74:14] accounts? Think about when you try to

[74:15] get your bookmaker purposely flagged as

[74:17] sharp. No. Now Alpha Raccoon can start

[74:19] clicking some buttons that don't make

[74:21] sense and move markets and then come in

[74:23] with another account. you know that's

[74:25] unidentified and start bending the other

[74:27] way. This is way more powerful. Now this

[74:29] account actually has a lot of more even

[74:31] more value.

[74:33] >> Let's say I know a certain cartoon dog

[74:35] who had an account that got flagged and

[74:38] was constantly getting penny jumped

[74:39] because it had some winnings in it and

[74:41] they started penny jumping this cartoon

[74:43] dog. So then he would go in, set up a

[74:45] bad position and hammer it back the

[74:47] other way. Uh or one of his friends,

[74:49] this cartoon dog's friends would go back

[74:51] and use this to his advantage. So yes,

[74:53] Porter's right. You can do that.

[74:55] >> I don't know anybody uses Brian from

[74:57] Family Guys or [laughter] Avatar, but

[74:59] it's an interesting one. I was saying if

[75:01] if this wasn't exposed and somebody

[75:04] said, "Okay, this looks like a Google

[75:06] insider trader."

[75:08] >> That'd be that'd be a huge edge cuz you

[75:11] >> I think they just assuming the guy will

[75:12] kill the account. So, the guy will make

[75:14] his mail be done. This account's dead.

[75:17] He would have known it even if he didn't

[75:18] get for sure dead now. Yeah, I think

[75:20] even if he didn't get exposed, he would

[75:22] just like it's very easy to start a

[75:24] >> What? What do you mean? Touts trade

[75:25] posts for likes all the time for

[75:27] hundreds of thousands of dollars in

[75:28] edge. This is like a Tuesday in the

[75:30] sports betting world,

[75:30] >> right? No, I'm just saying like

[75:34] just the different ways of thinking.

[75:35] Think about it from how can I exploit

[75:37] this betting wise versus how can I

[75:38] exploit this for anyways? We've

[75:39] exhausted that conversation. Last thing

[75:41] on the chopping block, the Chef K says,

[75:44] "How much money would someone be up if

[75:45] they bet LeBron over 10 points every

[75:48] game since 2007 and just kept putting

[75:51] the whole money back in it each time?"

[75:53] Uh, you've discovered what is

[75:55] essentially a parlay, but somebody just

[75:57] did a a very basic calculation um a very

[76:01] barbaric calculation of it and said they

[76:03] started with $1 and add a 1.2%

[76:05] multiplier every time. This is just

[76:07] hypothetical because 1.2 multiplier is

[76:10] probably too high first of all and but

[76:12] again it's just a very basic one. If

[76:13] they had a $1.2% multiplier every time

[76:17] they would be the richest person ever,

[76:18] it provides a 103digit number that

[76:21] starts out with 49. I'm not going to I

[76:23] don't even know how to say this number.

[76:25] So, uh yeah, maybe Foszen

[76:28] uh start uh start going this way, but

[76:31] you can get the liquidity down, I guess.

[76:34] What do you guys think? What do you guys

[76:35] think on this one?

[76:36] >> I already saw him give away alpha. He

[76:38] doesn't think there's edge anymore in

[76:39] this bet. That's why he wrote that he's

[76:41] not doing it anymore in the posts

[76:42] underneath. I think he thinks it's over

[76:44] and someone's about to lose money trying

[76:46] to run this this season. Maybe. I don't

[76:48] know. But that's the vibe I got with his

[76:50] response to it. Two, I already saw some

[76:51] people SGA's up. They're doing it every

[76:53] day now with him.

[76:56] >> Points. Yeah, someone's going broke.

[76:58] Someone's going broke and they're just

[76:59] going to be like, "Oh, why did this

[77:00] happen to me? I'm so unlucky. This minus

[77:02] 10,000 loss."

[77:04] The thing about the LeBron 10 plus

[77:05] points is that he knows the streak

[77:07] exists is that he's aware of it and they

[77:10] will make sure he gets it. Like he's

[77:12] that like like self self he's not like a

[77:15] self-centered play but he's

[77:16] self-centered enough to not want to lose

[77:18] that streak whereas SG I don't think he

[77:20] has eight points they're up by 40 in the

[77:21] fourth. I don't think he'll care.

[77:22] >> When LeBron was 34 maybe now his you

[77:25] know tendons might say something else.

[77:27] >> I think he cares.

[77:28] >> He walk he walks on a cane and scores

[77:30] the points. I I I think he would go that

[77:33] far honestly.

[77:34] >> So SGA it's I think for the well maybe

[77:38] Porter seen a botched version of it but

[77:40] he has a 20 plus points game streak. So

[77:42] I think that the angle is similar to the

[77:44] LeBron one where it's like hey he's

[77:46] going to try to break this record of 20

[77:48] plus points scored in each game and it's

[77:50] that like selfless selling uh uh

[77:53] prophecy like you said Jacob where it's

[77:54] the guy wants the points so it's not

[77:56] being priced into his distribution. So

[77:58] that's the SGA one for from what I

[78:01] understand.

[78:01] >> Can you put can you put up on the screen

[78:03] again that number real quick?

[78:05] >> So can just for anyone in the audience

[78:07] that's about to attempt this eventually.

[78:09] You see all those numbers? Go to the

[78:11] very last number there. It says zero.

[78:15] That's what you will have if you do this

[78:16] eventually. [laughter]

[78:18] I I don't recommend this as a betting

[78:20] strategy by the way. But I I think part

[78:23] of the quoteunquote edge for LeBron 10

[78:25] plus points is the awareness. The team

[78:28] wants him to do it. He wants to do it.

[78:30] It's like betting um like Mike Evans

[78:33] thousand plus receiving yards which is

[78:34] going to lose this year. But part of the

[78:36] handicap is if he's close in the last

[78:38] couple weeks they are going to force it.

[78:39] Like last season they went four straight

[78:42] plays they threw to him to get over the

[78:43] line on a thousand plus receiving yards

[78:45] for the season.

[78:46] >> I've never seen an ACL tear. I've never

[78:48] seen an ACL tear know how many points

[78:50] someone needed to score.

[78:52] >> No, of course you factor in injuries,

[78:54] but I'm saying they will

[78:56] >> over

[78:58] get there.

[78:58] >> Essentially, it's like an incentives

[78:59] contract, except the incentive is

[79:02] LeBron's legacy instead of money.

[79:04] >> Exactly. Which obviously you have to

[79:06] factor in injuries as well, but it does

[79:10] it it has to be priced in, I'm sure. But

[79:13] >> it LeBron's mindset on it exists, so it

[79:16] has to factor into I think a lot of

[79:18] people are losing money on this.

[79:20] >> Yeah, at first they just plug it in and

[79:22] the distribution is like they're not

[79:23] coming up with a 10 plus distribution

[79:25] for every single player and like

[79:26] thinking it over and being like, well,

[79:28] so at first it's now that it's got

[79:29] attention. So there might be, I guess,

[79:31] situations where you think someone has a

[79:33] long a long streak like this and you

[79:36] think, hey, he cares about this. If you

[79:38] can find it, that actually might be an

[79:40] edge that you can find somewhere else

[79:41] there. So that's uh research for

[79:43] everyone to do. Message PB about it.

[79:45] Since I gave you the initial idea, I get

[79:46] 50% of all profits on a free roll and

[79:49] we'll go from there.

[79:50] >> Well, there you go. [laughter] Message

[79:52] PB for the free roll there for the

[79:54] profits. Uh, but if you have anything

[79:56] you wanted to add or [music] anything

[79:57] you wanted to comment on, leave it in

[79:59] the comments section down below and

[80:00] we'll try to feature some of our

[80:01] favorite ones for next week's show. If

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