How AI Is Reshaping Betting, the Harsh Reality of Going Pro & More | Presented by Kalshi

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[00:37] What will the impact of AI be on sportsbetting and what maybe is the impactit's already having on sports betting?We're going to look at this. We're alsogoing to look at a potential documented

[00:48] loser in the space as well as therealities of being a professional sportsbetter. All this and so much more ontoday's Circleback episode here on thecircles of channel which is part of the

[00:58] hammer bag network and presented by Ky.This is the show we cover the latest andgreatest news that comes from gamblingTwitter and we're doing it with yourStandard Friday crew and a familiar face

[01:10] in the fourth chair. I am your host hereon Circleback. My name is Jacob Denny.I'm a creator and producer here at theHammer Betting Network. In the bottomleft as normal it is Mike aka Mr. Peanut

[01:21] Better on Twitter, Pro Sports Better,and Koshi Donator. In the bottom rightcorner of the screen, it is Joey Kesh,co-host of the Hit the Books channel,which is also part of the Harry Bank

[01:31] Network. In the top right corner, wehave Chris Derkus, Flop No Lied, aformer constant on the show and uhmaking a return here. Chris, how does itfeel to be back with us?

[01:43] >> It feels great to be back, especiallybecause I am not a couchy donatoranymore. In fact, if you count greennow,>> if you compared my P&L and Peanut's P&L,there's over a million dollars of

[01:55] separation between the two of us. Thatis substantial. And it shows who's thetrue expert of Koshi. It's all skill. Noluck involved as we know in thisindustry.

[02:06] >> Yes. Mike, any any rebuttal to that?>> Up 21K today. So maybe we'll have torerun the numbers. Okay. see if thatmaybe only $980,000 gap.>> Okay, starts somewhere. The comeback

[02:20] always starts somewhere. We're going toget into today's show. Starting off withthat AI conversation that I brought upthere at the top of the show. Startedoff first of all with this one here fromJeppi Paps who says, "A lot of people

[02:31] don't realize how fast AI productivityis compounding using AI daily. I'mroutinely doing in hours what used totake me weeks without cutting corners.If that's becoming normal, a lot ofwhite collar jobs are on borrowed time.

[02:43] So, instead of looking at this from ajust pure like AI impact on societystandpoint, I kind of wanted to gear ita little bit more towards betting forthe purposes of this show and there'sactually a good example that came up

[02:53] this week of somebody attempting to dothis. Andrew Courtney at Andrew Court1says, "I just bet 20K on Grammy winnersusing chat GPT. I don't know anythingabout jazz or classical music. Here's

[03:05] how liquidity intendance with low volumecreated temp a temporary edge provided athread and then in reality quote tweetedit months later a few months later andsaid lost around 9K on the Grammysmarkets reflection on what I do

[03:18] differently at the link below watchthese markets live maybe some tradersdidn't know that many of the winnerswere announced in the premiere ceremonyprior to the main show there wassomething resting there was some restingliquidity in many markets being swept

[03:31] about 10 to 15 seconds faster than thelive YouTube feed never leave orders outthrough the event. Okay, so maybe lessonlearned, maybe some mistakes.>> Can you read that second part or the

[03:42] last part again for Mike here? I thinkhe doesn't understand that con youshouldn't leave leave orders open.>> Never leave orders out through theevent. Uh why don't you elaborate onthat for us, Fluff? Maybe give your

[03:54] thoughts to start us off. Well, I wasjust digging at Mike here who has saidpublicly many times he's cost himself alot of money by h leaving leaving ordersopen too much.>> That's why you're up a mill compared to

[04:06] him, right?>> Yes. Exactly. But speaking about this AIthing um as a whole, I think it's funnybecause when you see people trying to dodo it once these new like advances come

[04:18] and and whether it's services frombedding or like uh technologyadvancements and data tracking and

[04:26] whatnot, it becomes the baseline. So ifyes, probably using chat GPT or somekind of like model like that compared to

[04:37] like sports betting in the 1980s, you'dprobably crush if you could use nowbecause people like Billy Walters usingcomputer was like a huge innovation.But now everyone has it and you don't

[04:49] think like other people in the marketare going to be having that as at leasta baseline. And if you're not doing morethan that, you're not doing anythinginnovative at all. But it's no not asurprise to me at all that you ended uplosing.

[05:01] >> Okay. Interesting. Uh Kenishes, do youwant to add on to anything FL saidthere?>> I mean, this is like obviously oneexample there, but you've seen it in alot of other areas where uh we'll calllike in maybe a few months ago there was

[05:14] kind of the courtsiding predictionmarket craze where people were likeleaving their orders up whether it betennis, whether it be basketball ortrying to live trade. If you're not likea, you know, a market maker with the

[05:26] best feed and you're trying to livetrade, there's usually, I'm not gonnasay usually, but there's scenarios wherethere's people out there with betterinformation than you or faster

[05:36] information than you. So, I'm I mean I Ithink it's just if you want to bet on Iwould not let I'll phrase it like this.

[05:45] I would not as a solo just person heresitting at uh you know my laptop bedoing like live market making. I I think

[05:56] you're at a disadvantage in a number ofareas. You know if you can be a takerbut in terms of like leaving your priceposted I think unless you got the bestfeeds the best stuff I think you you you

[06:08] could put yourself in for a world ofhurt if you do that. And also like injust these random scenarios where oh Iforgot to pull my you know pull my orderdown uh and now I'm getting you knowbeat down. So yeah I just it's one of

[06:21] those probably most people kind of gotif you're into it you got to live andlearn where you get burned once or twicedoing this and then uh you don't forgetanymore.>> Mike, anything to add before I kind of

[06:31] steer the conversation in a differentpath? Uh just regarding what Flub saidas far as these you know tools that youhave first they become an advantage andthen they become table stakes for

[06:42] everyone where everybody like once youif you are doing it it's almost like anykind of edge in betting if you'reaccounting for something or you're usingsomething other people aren't using thenthat's your advantage and you can make

[06:53] money off of it. Once everybody's usingit you have to use it essentially tokeep up. So whatever you knowpredictions or whatever advancements youmake in AI other people obviously are

[07:04] making similar kind of advancements. Umwhat it does do I think is as we seethis kind of with prediction markets toois removing this friction and allowing

[07:14] people to become more predictive or moreuh productive. It kind of, you know,makes the outcomes become more uh, youknow, increases the winners becomelarger winners. And I think that the

[07:26] people who were, you know, just grindingout of winning, it's going to be harderas the top guys become more productivewith AI and are able to do more things.It's going to make the person who wasthe 65th rank better now be a little

[07:39] bit, you know, comparatively make less,I think, because that friction no longerexists. uh similar to like you knoweverybody once the internet came andeverybody can read every newspaper all

[07:51] of a sudden the Pittsburgh Gazette ifyou can you know subscribe to the NewYork Times you end up doing that so theNew York Times makes a [ __ ] ton of moneybecause a ton of people want to do thatso it's kind of this uh once you scale

[08:03] everything to this level and AI allowspeople to scale at a new level it willstart to erode the you know middle ofthe road people. Okay, interesting takesthere. What does we'll go back to Mike?

[08:16] We'll go all the way around. We canagain, but if anyone has like, you know,Mike, you do a lot of origination. Keshdoes a lot of moving. Flip does a lot oftop down stuff and some origination as

[08:26] well. Am I I think umwhat involvement does AI have in yourday-to-day process, if anything? We'llstart with you, Mike. uh tons in thefact that I don't think I could you know

[08:38] I don't think I could code well enoughif it wasn't for AI that I would be ableto use uh you know the differentprogramming devices that I use like ifit wasn't for AI I just would be tooslow I wouldn't I would run into too

[08:50] many problems I couldn't use basicallyeverything that I've built in the pastyear plus has been with the help of AIum I think it's interesting in the factthat like you're not using it to like

[09:01] have AI tell you tell me what to bet youuse it as a tool to use other tools.It's one of those things where a lot ofpeople think like, oh, I just, you know,ask ChatGBT who the winner is. No, you

[09:12] use Chat GBT to help you set up toolsthat allow you to find who the winneris. Things like that. And it it's goingto help a lot of people, I think, interms of it can explain and kind of helpcreate kind of close the knowledge gap

[09:23] in a lot of areas that were a lot harderto kind of come up with by yourselfbefore.>> Kadesh, how about yourself?>> Nothing. Too stupid. Uh, no.

[09:34] That's why you need help.>> Uh they're making Joey corporate as inintegrated it uh because they're making

[09:43] us uh integrated into his daily life. Umbut I mean for what I do, I don't needAI to tell me which, you know, whichkiosk or which counter to go to to put

[09:54] in the bet. So uh I I see it like whatPB said. I know a lot of people that andI'm listen Joey you know I think I'm theyou know the oldest member of this paml

[10:04] by by a little bit here. My prime daysof you know that kind of stuff is like Imean I work with some people that youknow are 15 years younger than me thatare doing some crazy like cool [ __ ] with

[10:16] it. But I didn't grow up with that. I'mnot the most you know like technologysavvy guy. So in my daytoday life usingit a little bit. Um, but in terms of

[10:26] betting, it it hasn't uh it hasn'trevolution because that's not my that'snot my scope. You know what I'm saying?So, uh it's it's I guess it depends whatyou do.>> How about you, Phil?

[10:39] >> I barely use it. Um you don't reallyneed it that much for when you'rebasically stealing other people'sinformation. Anyway, the the only time Ireally used it is I had this oneoriginator. He had this dog avatar. He

[10:49] kept losing and I just said GPT like,"Can you pick some winners?" that workedbetter. Uh, but in all seriousness, forlike moving and top down, basicallynothing.

[11:00] I when I'm betting some futures, I douse, you know, a sim, not really amodel. I I some people might call it amodel. Um, I call it more a sim. AI has

[11:11] been incredibly helpful to code those,you know, very I built one three yearsago without AI. Took me like 80 hours. Ibuilt one this offseason. took me five

[11:21] hours to get like an even better sim.So, I was like, "Okay, AI is verypowerful.">> Another thing is I the part that justannoys the [ __ ] out of me with this uh

[11:32] the I used chat GPT to help me make isso stupid that like it doesn't matterwhat tool you're using. Like justbecause one person can use that tool, itwould be like, "Oh, I used you know

[11:44] NFL.com." If you're scraping NFL.complay-by-play data, running it through alike projection system, that's onething. If you're going to NFL.com andpicking winners, like this I use chatgpt

[11:55] thing is like it'd be like saying I usedGoogle. Like it doesn't matter. Mattershow you use it rather than just the toolyou're using.>> Yeah. But well said. That's where I kindof have issues when people like this

[12:05] tweet here say like white collar jobs onborrowed time. I I think it really itshouldn't be, you know, how can AIreplace individuals at a company. Itshould be how can people at a company

[12:16] get better at their jobs by using AI.And we can spin this towards bettinglike like Mike said there where and evenFlub said as well like you're doing thesame tasks but now you're doing themmuch more efficiently and you're more

[12:28] effective at at your in this case yourjobs are betting you're more effectiveat your job because you're using thesetools to your advantage. It's not>> yeah from like just from the the insideof the the the corporate sphere where

[12:40] I'm at there's not a and again itdepends on where you work who you workfor on that. some of those maybe likesuper technology ccentric company I knowit's hitting the delivery industry right

[12:49] now um a little bit but I there's notreally alike people are getting replaced by AIin like any of the white collar areas uh

[13:02] around that at the moment not to saydown the line but it there's not reallythat I believe it's much more like yourchronically online person that's likehey I look nobody's going to have a in

[13:15] 16 months. This feels very um>> feels like even chronically offlinepeople who just don't understand it. Youknow what I mean?>> Bled into like that. But like, you know,it's like the self-driving car thing ofuh 20 years ago where no one's going to

[13:28] have to drive and now like you know, yougot like three Whimos out there and uhyou know, a couple of people using theTesla feature. So, I think we're a longways away from from that uh that fear.

[13:40] >> Okay. Interesting.>> AI can't jam a kiosk. That's most>> Hell no. Hell no, they can't.>> Of course. Uh if you if you guys haveany takes on AI and sports, perhaps youcan give us your thoughts and your

[13:52] day-to-day process in betting and AI'sinvolvement in that. Give us yourexperiences in the comment section downbelow. While you're down there, take asecond if you're enjoying the show sofar. Hit the like button and maybeconsider subscribing or following us on

[14:05] podcast platform. if you're listeningover there instead. But on to the nexttopic on the show. We go to this onefrom ROI Guy123. Says, "Seems like everyother day does a new college kid

[14:17] rocketing up the Ky leaderboards. I'mfine losing to longtime pros, but losingto 19-year-old kids is different." I Ifeel like this is this is like aphenomenon we see in sports, you know?

[14:29] Like I'm okay losing to that Hall ofFamer guy. He's been there. he'saccomplished that a champion. But whenlike, you know, a rookiey's coming inthe league and is cooking me, you takeoffense to that and I feel like we see

[14:40] that in all sports and now maybe we'reseeing it in in sports betting. Kesh, asthe the oldest of the people here, haveyou ever felt THIS WAY? OF COURSE, ISPENT WITH PICKING AND ALL THE ALL the

[14:52] pick people there would they popped uplike out of nowhere. It was like thesome some combo of EV was in yourhandle. Then you had your pickettracker. Then you couldn't wait to tellpeople how much money you made Arvin

[15:04] over that month, you know, and that andit was annoying. You know, that's likeit's just annoying. Do I mind people aredoing that? But I at some point it is

[15:13] very Jake the comparison is like verygood in terms ofI I don't want I hate comparing us tolike prof professional athletes you knowbut like where yeah you kind of in your

[15:25] like low 20s and that mid20 kind of gothrough your prime and then once you hitthe back half of your 30s like I'm not

[15:34] going to sit at my setup for 14 hoursand live trade on a prediction market atthis. But you know what I'm saying? Likethat p that grind for me is is in the

[15:46] past. So I've got to do other things.But your 19, 20, 21 year old kid, that'sa lot. You know, he's hungry. He wants apiece of that, you know, that table thathe hasn't put in all those hours driving

[15:57] himself nuts and, you know, physicallybreaking himself down like Joey Kay has.He's going to put it in. So I>> Joey, just to clarify, jamming kiosks 14

[16:07] hours a day, that's okay. But jammingprediction markets at your computer, notokay.>> Even though I'm getting some steps in,like, you know, there's some extra, youknow, there's some mobility work there.I'M STILL IF I'M SITTING HERE FROZEN,

[16:20] I'M ON MY BACK. I'M GOING TO GET UP.They're going to be carrying me to bed.Now, at least with the kiosk, I'm movingaround. So, uh, yeah, that's I I it'sit's it's a new era.

[16:31] Is there any doubt the guy who's toolazy to sit up for an entire stream? Hehas to lay down. He's the one who justlike, "Oh, it's the kids nowadays thatare too I WHAT ARE WE TALKING about

[16:43] here?" I think thatthe fact we're just getting into Joey'slazy, not anything to do with their age.>> Um, no, I think people have always likekind of resented the younger kid more

[16:54] money than them basically in all aspectsof life. Uh, it's probably why I thinkthere was probably a reluctance uh forme and Joey, the college footballplayers. I think a lot of it had to dowith they didn't want a 19-year-oldcoming in making a [ __ ] ton of money

[17:07] when they work a factory job and they'relike, "This sucks. I don't want to seesomebody come in who's just moretalented and hasn't went through kind ofthe grind of it." Uh, yeah. I think it'sa pretty natural standard that people

[17:18] like to protect their piece of the pieand think that young people for somereason don't get the same piece aseverybody else.Well, I mean, in general, I suppose thetweet I don't want like the the person

[17:31] tweeting here, "All right, I got tothink like that's Harley," but it's justit hits different.>> Yeah, I think he's just joking aroundmore than any of general. I think thatpeople are very productive against theyounger generation more than they are

[17:43] older people out earning them.>> Agreed. And uh I can I can think of someexamples in the space. Um to be honest,I'm not sure about you guys. Uh anyways,uh if maybe you are one of those college

[17:56] kids who wants to rock up theleaderboard on Koshi or>> shout out to two people.>> Go ahead. Go ahead.>> Exy on the couch leaderboard. He'sactually doing some like really sick

[18:06] stuff. Uh he's very he's you know he'son he's been on the leaderboard who tookhimself off, but he's doing some reallysick stuff. He's up well over a million,I think, maybe even two at this point.

[18:17] uh not just top downing and taking offRobin and Flo like like me and M tryMike try to do but actually reallyintelligent things there and then Kobeum bets on on on Twitter I think he's

[18:28] been doing phenomenal stuff both thoseguys are like really young and it's likevery impressive to see I'm it's you knowit's part of me is jealous I'm like whenI was 21 I was a [ __ ] idiot and theseguys are already millionaires so like

[18:41] good job on them>> if you wanna tried rocket up theleaderboards you wanna get involved withmarkets like this. You can do so onKoshei with the QR code that is onscreen right now or by going to the link

[18:53] in the description at any point whileyou are watching or listening. Thank youto Koshi for being our presentingsponsor here on Circle Back. But Koshiwas in a little bit of hot water. At

[19:04] least according to this user here, uh,Quantain, sorry, Quanchian one onTwitter who says, "Crazy story. A bankanalyst published a report showing Koshi

[19:16] users lose money even faster than sportsgamblers." So, Khi first tried topressure the data provider to changetheir data and then accused them and theanalysts of conspiring to extort them

[19:27] when that doesn't work. So this was uhfrom Juice Reel if I'm not mistaken whoput out this data and there was pushback immediately from Koshi towards the

[19:38] data that came out here. However, asCaptain Jack pointed out, Captain Jack,a veteran of the sports betting spaceand the gambling Twitter space with alot of success, says I'm not sure why

[19:50] people are ignoring the flaw in the datafrom Juice Real here. The data gathersthat that they gather comes from theirusers tracking their bets on their site.Sports books have been around longer

[20:00] than juice reel. PMs have not. Anytimeyou try something new, you are likely tobe influenced by small sample size. Loseyour first two bets or seven of yourfirst 10, you might sour on the product

[20:11] and quit. So, what Captain Jack istrying to say with this long tweet here,I'm not going to read the whole thing,is that people who use Juice Reeltypically have been using sports books

[20:22] for a while and are now just starting touse prediction markets. And it's asmaller sample of the utilization ofprediction markets which is beingshowcased here. And he's suggesting that

[20:34] this data doesn't exist the same forsports books. And he's suggesting aswell that this data wouldn't bepublished for sports books. So the datadoesn't necessarily make sense for or

[20:47] rather doesn't not doesn't make sense.It's flawed. It doesn't paint the entirepicture of prediction markets againstsports books. Let's start off with Mikeon this one here. give us your thoughtson it. Do do you agree the data isflawed? Do you see any issues with

[20:58] what's going on here?>> So my my understanding of it is thatessentially they just got added on toJuice Reel. So when you take the subsetof the bottom 20% on Juice Rail for

[21:10] Talshi compared to the bottom 20% ofDraftKings, you are comparing one sampleset that whenever you compare a smallersample set to a larger one, the extremes

[21:22] of the data are going to seem much moreextreme. Uh you can think of this ifwhenever somebody goes, you know, fourgames through the season, this is thegreatest defense of all time. Well, no,because as you start to expand

[21:34] throughout the season, they start toregress to the mean. Um, so essentiallylike what you're doing is you'recomparing apples and oranges as far asif you're doing chunks of the data. Um,

[21:45] I can't obviously the fact that theextortion claims are insane. Um, andsomething that if actually said is

[21:54] probably, you know, almost crowns forliel or defamation. But I think that theactual data if they just if you only arelooking at the data itself, I don'tthink that you can draw any large

[22:06] conclusions, you know, either way fromwhat Juice Rail has out there.>> Okay. Interesting perspective to Flopup.Somebody who's more familiar with theother side of the counter as well, maybe

[22:18] you can provide your insight.I I completely agree with Mike and Ithink the only real issue here is it'slooks like to me they did try to um like

[22:29] stifle the journalist or like pressureto do take it off which they walked backquickly after but you shouldn't havethat mindset. That being said the datawas being misinterpreted wrong. Remember

[22:40] this is I hate to bash a company likethis but this is the same company atJuice Real that had the whole thing withTaylor Masses that was counting parlaylegs as like like if you went four andone as a 4 in one on your record not one

[22:53] and0.>> So like on part of your main page onjuice reel yes your win loss record isshowcased as your parlay leg winscounting towards that not the plus minus

[23:04] but your record like 93 and 50 forexample. Yes.>> Right. And it's like I don't know howmuch I trust a company that's makingdecisions like that and showing datalike that to represent the data

[23:16] accurately. And another thing I wastalking to um uh Rose B is Rose Burmanabout this. I'm not sure if this istrue. Um, but it sounded to me like if

[23:26] you compared it from initial sportsbooks to PMs, sports books also have theadded bonus of profit boosts and um like

[23:37] bonus bets or stuff stuff like thatwhere they you don't have that in PMs.If that's the case, that also explainlike big disparity between between thetwo. you need to look at it at a bet by

[23:50] bet or you know bet versus trade umbasis to determine what is actuallygetting getting better. And if you justcompare it by if they quit or not,you're going to get the survivorshipbias exactly like Captain Jack um says,

[24:02] you need to look at who's getting thebetter deal on the trades individually.Who if you're getting better prices on acouch, which you often do actually in inparlays, not so much. It's relatively

[24:13] the same for straits. How could youpossibly be losing more? It doesn't makeany sense.>> Okay. And Kenishh, oh, sorry, Mike, youwant to go back at that?>> No, Club made a great point on lookingat it bet by bet is the way to do it

[24:26] rather than looking at like individualsoutcomes because, you know, then you runinto also you're comparing individualswho are, you know, placing bets ortrades at one place and not the other.And like Flop said, where you can have

[24:38] profit boosts and things like that wherethey're artificially making theirbiggest losers pump more volume in. Youjust the way to look at it is bet by betwhat has been made as a whole. And thenthe individual users almost are kind of

[24:50] like irrelevant in the sense thatthey're just subsets of a larger datawhich you can already look at and see,okay, look at the bets overall. What isthe price they're getting here? What'sthe price they're getting there? And

[25:01] compare them that way.>> Kesh, anything to add? Uh just a smalllike I I'm kind of on the the flopchannel here of where not not just

[25:10] because I know Galaxy's our sponsor, butI would need to see more data from whatI'll call more of an unbiased source.Not to say that this is like totally

[25:21] wrong, but a larger sample over a longerperiod at may you know like this feels alittle I'll use the comparison like betpercentagesyy in terms of like data

[25:33] where you get the bet percentages fromone book and people you might be makinga it might be totally different atanother book or another book or anotherbook.to to say that like okay now like we'regetting a definitive outcome that people

[25:46] lose money faster on prediction marketsJohn Kel I I think it's way too earlyfor that. Okay interesting takes there.We'll keep it moving on the show in justa second here. I need to tell you aboutsome stuff going on within the hammer

[25:58] betting network. It's Super Bowl weekand we have some fantastic content foryou guys. Specifically, we have a greatprogram coming up on the ForwardProgress YouTube channel because thebest part of the Super Bowl is both

[26:09] teams have two weeks to prepare for eachother. Some coaches veer off theirnormal tendencies, others stick withwhat's worked for the team. We're goingto be breaking down the X's and O's thematchup on Friday. That's later today.

[26:21] Suma gets into what he expects to seefrom this game in full detail and joinsGStack George. That comes out today,5:00 p. Eastern time on the ForwardProgress YouTube channel. You can go to

[26:33] the link in the description to accessthe Forward Progress YouTube channel andcheck out what they have to say ahead ofthat big game. Now, we're going to getinto the next piece of content on the

[26:43] show. Here we have Corsy King at realNHL better who says he's getting DMsthat document I'm reading this by theway. Uh,

[26:54] make that very clear. getting DMs thatdocumented poker loser Brett Feines atNBA Green Beans, who untagged himself inthis, by the way, lost 19 units inDecember and then never once did a recap

[27:06] for paid subscribers all of January. Abad look for the only poker player worsethan uh than Tommy G. Uh here are somescreenshots here showcasing the minus19

[27:18] units that are being alleged by atrealNHL better. Somebody messaged him andsaid, "I'm in the Discord and everyoneis down bad. He hasn't done a recap inover a month. Need you to call him outon the BS because when I did, he blocked

[27:30] me and he also blocked uh Real NHLbetter after this was posted. UmI mean, first of all, uh this is theinformation coming out from people on

[27:42] Twitter, so hopefully I avoid any DMsthis time. Uhyou're not too familiar with this BrettFeud character, are you?>> Not that much. Uh, this might surprisewhere I go with this, but I don't

[27:55] actually understand what the gripe ishere. It looks like it's documented tome. You see the losses he's posting.It's from his own Discord. He clearlysays he's down, right? I mean, what is

[28:05] the issue here? What What did you wanthim to do? He said he's down 19 units. Idon't think he's trying to hide that. AmI missing something here?>> I'm not sure. So, I'm trying to figurethis out as well. I'm not sure if he's

[28:17] posted that. It doesn't say who's postedthis. So, I'm not sure.>> I'm pretty sure that's that's in becauseit's rolling recap and then you seelater on you see like bread and butter

[28:28] which I'm assuming is his discordis that he just didn't recap like thatthat month he didn't post like inDecember I lost 19 units but it says inthe like literal post before that he

[28:40] lost 19 units. What did you want him todo? Like what do you want him to say?Like do you want him to have a specialpost that says I lost 19 units inDecember? I>> I'd say if you are doing monthly recaps,you need to continue to do monthly

[28:53] recaps. Again, this information is beingalleged. If it is true that we wentDecember without a recap,>> like I'm trying to be unbiased here.Like I don't think this is a problem.

[29:03] Like you Yes. Like this is a little bitof a tout tactic. You highlight youhighlight the wins and you minimize thelosses. He's not even hiding it. He'sjust not maximizing or magnifying it,

[29:15] which I don't think is necessarily a badthing because you can clearly see thathe lost 19 units in December. He's Idon't think he's trying to hide fromthat. It's just he's not going to blastit on because it's a bad business tacticto tell your your subscribers, "Hey, I

[29:28] lost 19 units, but if they wanted tolook up, they could easily find theinformation. He's not It's posted in hisDiscord." So, I I don't understand whatthe gripe is. It just seems likeunnecessary hating.>> Okay, Kenishh, over to you. What do you

[29:40] think? Well, I'm not going to pass upthe opportunity to take a dunk on uh oldhard rock fines. So, um I mean I I like

[29:49] I as Flop said, is he that it's justit's sales 101. When you get slammed,you're not going to go around. And sothat there is an element of like

[30:02] just face the M instead of I'm going tountag myself and kind of pretend like itdidn't happen. there there I from arespect standpoint I think you know youkind of if it's me you play the old like

[30:13] hey didn't have a great month looking tore you know do you do the you pull afence right we're looking to have a bigfootball season no matter what yeahwe're down 180 units but we're going to

[30:23] crush it this football season so um Imean maybe you're looking for some himto do that I mean it's probably themessage of somebody that you know wasfollowing it and you know got absolutely

[30:33] smoked so I don't blame people from uhyou know being annoyed. But at the otherend of it, you know, if you're if you'rebuying theif you're buying the picks from there,

[30:46] then what what are you doing withyourself in the first place?>> Uh and Mike, anything on your end?

[30:54] >> So, if I'm seeing this correctly,everyone's tagged in his recaps on one

[31:02] one two. Nobody's tagged. They're all inone post and the other one I would whatit seems like to me is that the personwas trying to post themsself the rolling

[31:14] rate cap and that's what they're saying.If Brett post the one above he's in theclear 100%. I don't think anybody>> agreed can do anything. But if someoneelse is posting this and he's just

[31:26] starting in January, then yes, obviouslythat's insane. So I I don't know. It'skind of hard to tell what's going onhere. This is also like one of theproblems with having things hashed outin Twitter and having things kind of,

[31:38] you know, handled this way. So, I don'tknow. I think that it's a situationuntil I know more, I wouldn't sayenough. Um, if Flop's right and he isposting these, uh, like he said, thenthat's one thing. If he's not posting

[31:50] them, then that's another.>> Okay. So, based on the tweet, my I wasthinking that this was posted bysomebody else. It doesn't look like itthough because like they like the

[32:02] coloring is the same and it's also like>> well the coloring is yellow because ateveryone is tagged. So if you're taggedin something it'll flash in yellow foryou on Discord.>> Here's what I don't understand. If thisis if Brett didn't want this in his

[32:15] Discord, why would he not just deletethat tweet or delete that post and thenpost he he posted after it and thescreenshots with Brett's tweets, nottweet post. So it's like clearly Brettallowed it to be there. So, at the very

[32:28] least, he's acknowledging it.>> I think that we need to get to the realissue of this is that Discord's veryconfusing. I get confused on it all thetime. I hate the different groups thereare, the different messages. Um, whenFlops guy Mike comes on, he's like,

[32:40] "Hey, I sent you something on Discord. Ilook there. I'm screen sharing. Hethinks I'm an idiot. I look like a [ __ ]every single time. I get confused. Ihate it." And that's my only stance.That's my hardest gripe.

[32:52] >> You sound like a boomer. Maybe I wasright when I when I sent you the USBphotos when I was trying to get you amicrophone for yourself.>> AI needs to AI explain Discord to me iswhat I'm gonna ask next.>> You and I are the only people on this

[33:05] panel in the 20s. You know, Kenish iswhat in his 50s or something like thatand Mike Mike's in his 30s or 40s? Ican't even tell.>> Yeah, get with the times, guys. Uhanyways, progressing with the show. More

[33:17] information required there on that one.It would seem the consensus is. Ifyou're enjoying the show so far, as areminder, please make sure you've hitthe like button. Subscribe for morecontent like this and leave a comment ifyou have something that you've seen so

[33:29] far today you have an opinion on or ifyou see something later that you have anopinion on. This is the part of the showwhere we go to comments from theprevious week. As always, we like tofeature some of the comments. So,another incentive to get somethingcommented down below. The first one

[33:42] comes from Bucket Lift, who gave us someprops. One thing I preached by thisgroup is you don't pretend to knowthings that you're unsure of. That aloneis an under is an underestimated assetof successful people. Starting your own

[33:54] limitations signals au authenticity.Every single successful person I knowpossesses this trait. So is this acompliment that we never try to think wedon't know or do we hide it really well

[34:05] when uh when we don't know what we'retalking about? Maybe uh a little bit ofa maybe a little bit of a blend of both.Uh what do you think Kesh? Yeah, I meanI I'm always black and white about the

[34:16] fact that if you know I'm I don't knowsomething or I'm you know too much of anidiot to figure it out there there's nohiding. And I think part of the allureof the channel in itself and the network

[34:29] is uh just the authenticity that peoplepresent. I don't think we've had we haveanybody that, you know, that, you know,might try and portray themselves as a

[34:40] professional gambler in Hawaii uh thatbets, you know, $3 million on NFL gamesat post. So,it's it's a Yeah, I I appreciateeverybody's uh you know, keeps it real.

[34:52] >> Next ones I want to feature. This was uhon the conversation the coin toss whichhe brought up last weekend betting onthe coin toss the Super Bowl and webasically I mean my stance was like whywould anyone bet on this? But of course

[35:04] there are people who brought up somegood reasons to bet on the coin toss.First of all uh Brendan I says I do planon sending a pretty sizable bet on thecoin toss but more so for account

[35:15] priming purposes. It's a very cheap wayto get square action which is very true.LD Yank16 added, "Occasionally you canbet you can find both sides of the cointoss at even money at two differentbooks. Bet the same amount on each side

[35:28] and you get the benefit of a dummylooking bet in the account for no risk,bonus points if it's a book with apoints or reward system. Uh there's alsooccasions where sports books will run

[35:41] promotions or like they'll boost theodds on on the coin toss which obviouslymakes it viable there. Even if you'renot getting a plus EV position, you canmanufacture it to be plus EV for your

[35:52] longevity as a sports better. Uh flop,do you agree with this stuff? Do yourecommend stuff like this?>> Uh actually somewhat do. I think it's agood account priming thing. And I justwant to shout I I do know one prediction

[36:04] market that is allowing the coin tossesat a reasonable price. I I won't nameany names, but uh just wanted to putthat out there.>> Uh Mike, how about yourself? Anything to

[36:14] add with this conversation? What theseguys don't understand is that actually Ican't look it. I can't find it. One ofthem is actually slightly better thanthe other. And Spanky recommends if it'sa no vague coin toss that you're

[36:26] supposed to bet it on I think it's tailseach time because the special coins areweighted in a way that it's more likelyto show up on the other. So when youtake your negative EV bet on uh your,

[36:39] you know, plus 100, you think thatyou're actually getting it in fine.really one of the sides is slightlybetter due to the weight of the coin.Look up Spanky has it somewhere. Also,Randy Moss says tales never fails. So,he's played PlayStation and he knows

[36:52] that you should always go tails.>> So, so I didn't know about the specialcoins. I do know that on a standardAmerican I think it's a quarter. Thehead side is very very very marginallyheavier than the tail side. So, you're

[37:05] actually more likely to get tailsbecause heads is heavier will land onthe bottom. Maybe maybe slightly more.Um,>> that has to be fake. That there's no waythat that's actually like>> No, it's true. It It doesn't give you

[37:16] like any like real quantifiable edge forlike a coin toss.>> Yeah.Yeah.>> It's extraordinarily marginal, but itdoes exist. If if you do want to if you

[37:29] have like if you're doing a coin toss,you should in theory always go.>> How do How do the people know that it's0.001? Does someone someone in a roomwith a head is just going boom boom boomboom? Oh, oh, okay. We've got a samplesize of a million. We can we can

[37:41] definitively say now>> let me introduce you to something calledphysics flop where they can actually dothese calculations and they can do itahead of time. This is uh somethingBarry Horse has taught us very well asthe market continues to crash.

[37:54] >> Uh Kesh, anything from you on the cointo before we go to the next one?>> I you know the only thing would be Idon't know. I mean, the priming thing

[38:03] sounds good in theory, but I don't knowif just making a a bet on the coin tossis like,>> well, that in conjunction with otherstuff.>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, ifit's one where, you know, I'm SGPing

[38:15] everything with the coin toss. Uh Imean, I can see some scenarios there,but I don't know if like just, you know,I'm throwing in the coin toss and now Igot VIP limit.>> Yeah. You can't order like a triple BigMac and then a Diet Coke and make it

[38:28] healthy. So, like, you know, you can'tjust bet the coin toss, all of a suddenyour count looks like you're like you'rean idiot. That there's a lot of workthat has to be put in. But,>> I want to point that out to some people.People think like, oh, you can bet like

[38:39] 10k on the coin toss and now you can betlike unfetteredand it's like, no, no, no, that's nothow it works. It's like one little bet.That's more what I was trying to get tothere with Flip articulated it wellwhere like no, you've kind of got to do

[38:51] a pattern of things to before like notnot one bet on the coin toss is going toget you into you know uh monopolylimits.>> It it will increase the variance enoughthat if you like if you're taking it

[39:03] will you're just pure win loss. Like theone guy said if you find two books andyou bet 100k on one 100k on the otherthey are going to just look at the winloss at some point and be like thisguy's down 100k. So, you have to havehuge sizes and probably want to offset

[39:16] it at different places. But thatactually was a pretty good uh strategy.>> Yep. Absolutely. Uh we'll keep it movingon the show now into the next topic. Uhactually, sorry, one more thing to talk

[39:28] about. There's more stuff coming up onthe Forward Progress channel that youguys need to know about because alongwith the X's and O special we havecoming up tonight. We also have someexcellent stuff in the form of the pizza

[39:40] buffet. It is the final pizza buffet ofthe year this Sunday at 11:00 a.m.Eastern time, the day of the Super Bowl.And it's on the Forward Progress YouTubechannel. Rob Pizzola, professionalsports better, CEO of the Hammer, will

[39:52] break down the big game and have someSuper Bowl props to share. That's 11:00a.m. Sunday morning on the ForwardProgress YouTube channel. I mean, Ialready told you to go subscribe there,so you already know to go to the link inthe description at any point to go to

[40:04] the channel today. Get subscribed. Twogreat pieces of content ahead of the biggame. Now, this one from Jake at J HorseWhisperer. He says, "Professionalbetting isn't glamorous. It's one of the

[40:15] loneliest careers you can choose. Youmiss the office, laugh, the Thursday pubsessions,shared wins with your mates. Sure, youcan chat to people daily, shop, staff,family, friends, but it's not the same.

[40:27] Most pros won't tell you anything real.Everyone's protecting their edge. Tellone person, suddenly the whole worldknows, and you can't get a bet onanywhere." That's about half of it here,but that's about the gist of it. They,

[40:39] this person misses the social aspect ofthe 9to-5 in favor of sports betting,and it's all the sacrifice in sportsbetting. Now, sure, there are sacrificesin the realities of sports betting, butwhen you click on the account and you

[40:52] see a link to the paid service thatthey're providing, kind of takes away alittle bit of the zest in in whatthey're saying, I think. But, uh,Kenishh,you you live both worlds. You know, you

[41:04] you're heavily involved in sports. youdo the 9to-5 grind as well. You're theperfect person to tell us the thedifferences and similarities.>> Yeah, this this I I agree. This readlike a little bit like you found this on

[41:15] AI and it was like, "Oh, let me drawdraw you into uh you know, pay fix."From my personal perspective, I do likeuh I mean, that's not I wouldn't put

[41:26] that in the top three reasons why I kepta corporate job. Um but it's it's inthere where it kind of gives you somebakedin socialization. With that saidthough,

[41:36] it doesn't mean like just because youknow you might spend a lot of timetrading or at your desk, it doesn't meanlike you I know you know a lot of peoplein this room whether you're going to

[41:48] conferences, whether you're meetingpeople for like business meetings orlike even whether you're doing some likerunning yourself, there's elements ofsocial or you just treat it like you

[42:00] know you kind of work like you're anormal job hours and then outside ofthat you have your social life wherelike hey I'm I'm going to do my bettingyou know or I'm going to do the tradingfrom uh whatever x tox and then outside

[42:12] of that I'll do some other so>> yeah I thinkis there an element of you know it's alittle bit more isolating than yourtypical job sure but you can easily

[42:23] modify that with um other activities inlife>> okay uh I think that makes sense how doyou take it flip what do think aboutthis. I

[42:34] >> think uh Kesh kind of and you guyspointed out already, but the fact thathe's a tout takes away this entirelybecause he it's it was typed up as

[42:44] someone that is laring and wants to be apro better but is actually not. Likewhat was it? He had one of those withthe shared wins with your mates. That'sa huge part of like sports betting. Whatwhat are you talking about? amount of

[42:56] times like especially as like a formyself whether you're an originator or amover it's going to be roughly the sametoo because you need movers to get downfor you movers sh like times I've hadenormous sweats with people and it's

[43:08] like you're really excited you'retexting each other and it's it's veryexciting so that part was it's clearlylike he had no idea what he was talkingabout he just did a little researchtried to write something up that sounds

[43:19] good to get people to buy his pics>> yeah also in most ca I I've been in workin the office a long time you rarely arebetting with the people at the yard orespecially if you're doing like sharp

[43:32] actual but not like you you know he'skind of telling it like h you know whatwe all go in on an SGP together orsomething if you're actually bettingsharp stuff I like I'm not ever like the

[43:43] one of the the people in the office cameby to tell me that about their like $15you know threele Champions League parlayand I was like oh god now I got tolisten to this story for eight minutesyou know but I'm not like hey you know II got you know, 15 college basketball

[43:57] games. I'll be betting you on a thousandyou want. So, it it Yeah, it's such ait's like a what I romanty. It's like agambling fantasy story that doesn'tactually have its roots in anything.

[44:09] >> How about you, Mike? What do you think?>> Fluff was so lonely as a pro better hehad to take a job to get friends again.So, I think that it's rage coming fromhim. But, um, in seriousness, I do think

[44:20] that like working once you get good atthis, you have to work with partners.Once you work with partners, youexperience a lot of the things like theopposite of what he's saying in thissituation is that like, oh my gosh, younever like get to talk about wins. Like

[44:33] if you're moving through somebody orsomebody's originating with you, you areby definition. There is probablysomething lost to working at home, butlike that's a working from home versusworking in the office thing compared to

[44:44] like in general as far as like modernworkplaces. I don't know. This guyobviously is just laring uh likeeveryone said so far. all the shout outlike when he's saying no office space.It's so funny. Yesterday I literally

[44:56] went to an office space of another probetting group to like work out anddiscuss something. It's and they hadlike a bunch of employees that wereactually on 9 to5s working for them.It's like this totally exists in theindustry. Like what are you talking

[45:08] about? You can go into the office and beon a 9 to5.>> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean I I'llecho all the things the guy the guy saidhere. I can understand like there's a

[45:19] social side the nineto-f5 but also likethere you can build relationships in inother ways and it just feels like tryingto promo package being sold. I will givehim if you are betting on sports like

[45:31] seriously after a while it does kind ofruin some of the more social aspectsabout sports where it's like people willbe like oh you know they have like thesesuper hard opinions on things and nowI'm like I I don't know like I have no

[45:43] idea like oh it's a line that shouldtell me what the actual probability>> like you can still have takes don't getme wrong but it does ruin and it ruinskind of sports content in a way whereyou're like oh because this team won bythree like you know it's all noise or

[45:56] whatever but it's like now these grandarching like opinions that you've grownto take. It does kind of ruin it in thataspect.>> I I do feel that when I'm like uh I havemy uncle ask me like who who do I thinkthe best team in the NFL is win a Super

[46:08] Bowl? I just think okay well who's thefavorite to win. Okay. Well, it's beenthe Seahawks for quite a while or it'sthe Rams, but the Seahawks will havehome field against them. So, theSeahawks are the most likely team to winthe Super Bowl. Something like that. Ido agree from that. It's like who do you

[46:21] think is going to win this game? Uhwell, this team's favored by two and ahalf, so them. but it's also like apretty pretty close to a 50/50 game. So,I I I get it from that perspective.>> I have a funny story to tell. Um, a

[46:33] couple weeks ago, I was in in Vegas atCirca for the for Survivor and whatnot.And for the playoff games, I wassweating at this at the stadium and Ihave like six figure bet on on uh one of

[46:45] the teams. I think it was I think I hadum I think I had Bears or no, I hadPackers money line versus the Bears. Andthis couple is talking to myself and mymy wife who were sitting there and they

[46:57] were talking about how they had a $20bet and they were super excited becausethey were they bet on the on the Bearsand they're like high-fiving each otherand I'm watching in real time as I'm

[47:08] just lo I'm like hundreds of thousandsare evaporating from myself and they'rejust like thrilled talking about howgreat this is and like they're beingfriendly with us for the past hour andI'm sitting there like I want to kill

[47:20] myself and they're justit kind like like my it ruined like thesocial experience of sports normally ifI didn't have any bet on it. I'd be likehappy with them like chalking it up, butI could barely talk.

[47:30] >> Right. So, there is validity to this insome ways, but when it comes fromsomebody trying to sell a package, it uhtakes a little bit of the punch of itaway. Before we go to the next topic, aword from prediction data will hear

[47:44] their message. Now,>> if you're a better building your ownmodels and you're not watching KIHI andthe rest of the market in one unifiedfeed, you're probably missing edges.Prediction data aggregates andnormalizes data from Khi, major

[47:56] prediction markets, and sports booksinto a single API built for back testingand live trading. You get live pricesand historical data in one clean schemawith no data engineering headache. Ifyou want a trial key, you'll need to

[48:09] book a quick demo. Click the link in thedescription or scan the QR code to getyour trial key. Two more topics on theshow today. First of those two comesfrom Funhouse at Back After This says,

[48:21] "Dummy Coward, Colin Coward, host of hisshow, The Herd Live. Uh I think I don'tknow if he's with ESPN anymore."Anyways, doesn't matter. Has very known

[48:31] in the in uh the sports world as uh apundit, I suppose. says he likes theunder in the Super Bowl and thenpredicts a final score which would goover the posted Vegas total by four and

[48:43] a half points. Now granted, I I don'tbelieve this was a sports bettingsegment. However, it was only a10-second clip in which he was able inone sentence to contradict his stance. I

[48:54] think it's an undergame. I think it's2723, which is over again according uhas Funhouse mentions there. So,I don't want to dunk him to her because

[49:05] it wasn't exactly a sports bettingsegment, but in general, how do we feelabout these very large sports mediapersonalities being forced into sports

[49:16] betting content as a result usually ofsponsor for sponsorship reasons likewe'll see on uh ju just an NBA pregame,a person who has never done any sportsbetting having to give out a three-legg

[49:28] parlay on a game, for example. Michael,we'll start with you. How do how do wefeel about this sort of stuff?>> Do we know that maybe Colin thought thatthat was the modal outcome, but actuallythe median outcome is below the 47 and a

[49:42] half or 46 and a half?>> No, maybe in the 5 seconds after thisclip that's not here. Maybe he doesexplain that.>> Yeah, that could be true. Um, I don'tknow. I actually don't have a problemwith this compared to I think otherpeople are going to be like, "Oh, you

[49:54] know what's wrong with him?" like theguy's not paid to talk about theoverunder of the game or I mean if theyare going into those areas sure but like

[50:04] I would rather hear if I am listening toa former player talk I can get valueeven if they are you know describing aflawed process for a betting pick juston the things that they describe and I

[50:16] can kind of gain I can get what I needout of it. So, I don't think that likeforcing everyone to be all buttoned upand not say anything because actuallytechnically the line is this and youshould bet it if you have that strong of

[50:26] a take or my least absolute leastfavorite is when somebody says I thinkteam X is going to win. Well, they're12% on the money line. Why don't youjust go ahead and take it? Like noteverybody has to bet their opinion or

[50:39] feel strong enough to bet it all thetime. If you're in the space, yes, ifyou're just talking about sports, I wantpeople to give their opinion withouthaving to fear this like gotcha momentuh anytime you give a stance,

[50:51] >> right? I I agree. I can agree with youthere. What do you think, Philip?>> Yeah, I have to disagree with that. Umit really irks me when people do like ifthey say they think a team is going towin and it's 12%, they should bet. I

[51:04] mean, come on. Like that's such a hottake. It's it's ridiculous. Like>> no, not everybody has to bet everythingall the time. like they can think likewhat you end up having then is some kindof weird group think where everybody

[51:15] just has to follow the line at all timesno matter what and you don't get anykind of dis like you want to hearopinions from other sides even if likeeven if the person doesn't really thinkthrough the process of I need to regress

[51:27] my opinion back to market and thesepeople have all these things I want tohear the case for the other side andyou're not going to hear it unless youjust hear okay essentially what I thinkyou're hearing is their opinion before

[51:36] you regress it to market in a sense>> fair But in this example, like in theSuper Bowl, I think it's possible thatsomeone respected could make the

[51:47] Patriots a favorite if they have a veryweird model. But if we took a game likesay it was um San Fran versus Chiefs andSan Fran's a 12 and a half point

[51:56] favorite, no one intelligent couldpossibly have the Titans as a favorites.So there's the only other side is likeyou think that they aren't as big of anunderdog, which I'm fine with. But when

[52:09] they go out and they make these boldpredictions that are so wildlyoffmarket, I just I can't respect it atall. I have no issue if someone says Ithink the Patriots are underappreciated

[52:22] and have a better chance than most wouldthink to beat the Seahawks. Like that'sfine with me. And I hate this like theyhalfass the like sports integr like thethe data integration like a big pet

[52:34] peeve of mine is I'll see like on thebottom of the screen I'm watching ESPNlike football power index they'll putthe spread the total and then they'llput the football power index winpercentage instead of using the money

[52:45] line. So I I'll see like like spreadsit. It'll be like you see a seven and ahalf point spread at a 62% winprobability, but then a three and a halfpoint spread at like a 75% winprobability. And you're like that

[52:57] doesn't make any sense. And they do thisall the time and it just bothers me somuch. Likeyou can be off market. I have no problemwith that. But if you're so wildly off

[53:08] market, which what Mike suggested, it'sjust ridiculous. You cannot think a 12%win probability team is going to win. Noone would think that.>> So I I guess the way I would phrase it,I agree with you if you're talking about

[53:20] like integrating FBI with the spread andstuff that makes it wonky. But I'm justtalking in general like if you'resomeone who's giving their opinion and

[53:30] you like say you in a way like you trustthe market enough that you think, oh,the market overrides me. But I'm givingmy opinion before I take in any kind of

[53:42] market into effect and this is what Ithink. I think if everybody regressedtheir opinion back to the market, youwould be more correct almost in allcases if you actually just took youropinion and said, "Okay, I'm going to,

[53:53] you know, account for what other peoplethink more." But at the same time, thenyou're not going to get like the markethas to arise from something. So, I thinkthat these people like coming up withit's going to be a very boring show ifyou say look at the side and and not

[54:06] even boring, I think it's going to be avery uninformative show if you're justlike, "Hey, this is what the winprobability is according to peoplesmarter than me." No. So that that'sfair. But what I would say I guess mymain point is maybe that we're gettingoff a little off then we like to let

[54:19] Joey go here is there's a there's arange where you which is an acceptableopinion. My so example I would give islike if you thought Joe Burrow was thebest quarterback in the NFL, I'm not

[54:31] going to discard your opinion. Thatthat's okay. If you sat here and saidBryce Young is the best quarterback inthe NFL, I I just can't take you seriousat all. So like there's like it's the

[54:41] same. Like if if you said a two and ahalf point underdog in the NFL is goingto win the game, fine. If you think afive and a half to like seven like aseven and a half point underdog is going

[54:52] to win the game, I I can't take youserious. Like that's what I mean. Okay.Sorry. I know that we're just runningover Joey here as we go back and forth,but I think if you are picking, say

[55:04] there's seven people up there and youpick the team who is a seven-point dogto win the game, maybe you actuallydon't think in like the majority of timethat they are winning over 50% of thetime, but you think it's under

[55:17] represented in the sample. I think thatlike we're taking what was not meant tobe a very precise science and making itokay this is what you think when it'sreally like the goal of a lot of thesethings again this is different than if

[55:30] they're actually giving picks but ifyou're just like talking at the end ofthe game this was not meant to be a veryprecise thing it was meant to startdiscussions and like we get I think twowe start to take what was something else

[55:42] and kind of morph it into more of a likeanalytical discussion of actually themedian outcome is this.>> Let's get Joey's word on it.>> Yeah, sorry.>> And this all started with uh by the way.>> I agree.

[55:55] >> The Colin Coward.>> That's all I got. Agreed. Uh no, but uhI I got nothing on that other than justI can't believe people still like JasonMcIntyre and Colin Coward like still in

[56:07] 2026 has views and people that. But uhgood back and forth there. I liked it. II wanted to kind of defend him in like,you know, maybe like in his mind atypical NFL total would be higher than

[56:20] than the Super Bowl, which could betrue, but I mean, he's given a 50 point.There's 50 points he's predicting. He'ssaying he thinks it's an undergame, thengives a score in the same sentence of of50 points.

[56:32] That that's a lot of points for you tohave the feeling that it's under. Um,again, he's not a betting expert. Um, Iagain I don't even think this was abetting segment either, butit would be nice to have a little bit

[56:45] more thought go into some of thesediscussions regarding sports betting. II think is where my stance would be. Butlast topic here, speaking of people,unlikely people getting involved in

[56:56] sports betting. How about this one fromLeBron James running a DraftKings promoon looks like in Yes, this is Instagramreels. our uh responsible gamingadvocate that we sometimes see on this

[57:09] show at round robin42, Isaac RoseBerman, who was brought up earlier onthe show as well, says yes, thisshouldn't be legal. It's LeBron doingthe promo and then you can use codeLeBron as a promo to sign out. Now, this

[57:21] is not me obviously promoting Dragon,just mentioning that it just seemssurreal that you have like one of thebiggest names in sports who has who isstill an active player in their sport

[57:31] who has a promo code to sign up to arecreational sports book.How do we feel about this, Kesh? We'llget some words from you here. Do you doyou think this is okay like morally or

[57:43] what do you give us anything you have tosay? I mean, I maybe I've beendesensitized. Um, but or maybe justIsaac anytime he talks responsiblegaming desensitizes me to like rational

[57:55] thought um because he wants to, youknow, I bang my head through a wall. ButI I don't like since legal started likepro athletes have been doing like promos

[58:07] for him, all that. So, the fact thatLeBron has a promo code, I mean, I Idon't know. like this. I I wish a guycould have, you know, the same amount ofpad, but that doesn't move the needle

[58:17] for me in any way.>> Okay. Uh how about you, Mike?>> Yeah, I'm with Joey. I like why is thisany different? He bets on NFL gamespretty clearly. He's saying bet on them.

[58:30] I don't understand why it's necessarilydifferent from like I guess cuz he's anathlete and he's also could be bet on. Iget like the conflict of interestsomewhat, but I I don't know. Are we sodumb that we can't kind of parse those

[58:42] two different things together? I thinkwe can talk generally about thepromotion and things like that and thatcould s certainly be a discussion, butthis to me doesn't rate as anything more

[58:54] bad than other kind of advertisements Isee in the space all the time.>> Okay. You've both kind of taken theangle where like we've seen this before,but like can we zoom out and say weshould never have seen this to begin?

[59:05] like we're we're we're in really in theinfancy of of legal sports betting herein North America. So like the fact thatit's the norm doesn't necessarily mean

[59:15] it should be the norm for for instance.Um what do you think, Flop?>> Yeah, I mean just because we see peoplejumping off a cliff doesn't mean we

[59:24] should follow them. I mean like uh I Ikind of agree with IRB here, but maybefor a different reason. I just don'tthink we should be allowed to advertise

[59:36] for like sports betting companies andeven prediction markets. I think look,it's not it's not the most ideal thing.Um, but you I don't want to see theseadvertisements blasted or or or at leastminimize it a little bit and this seems

[59:48] like a pretty extreme ex likeadvertisement with an elite player and ahuge following doesn't seem the best inmy opinion.>> If we want Yeah. If we want to take thethousand point point view should we be

[60:00] advertising at all on certain thesethings I think yeah that's is almost Iguess I took it as a separate discussionbut yeah I mean we say this uh you knowpresented by whoever and lots of shows

[60:12] here I think that it's like I I don'tsee this as any particularly differentand I guess in that regard just becauseLeBron is already you know involved in

[60:22] sports I guess is the difference>> I've never had any issue with like thepromo in sports betting. Like peoplecomplain a lot. I don't really havecomplaints. It's it's the reality isit's a lot of companies competing very

[60:35] aggressively for the same customers. Solike they really do need to be in yourface to get your attention sometimes.And then we see this with in so manyindustries where people are competingand the ads are coming out. I get thatyou know the the sports betting can lead

[60:47] to problem gaming and and that's wheresome of the questions come in on that.But I don't know, something doesn'treally sit right about a a current proalete getting involved this. I mean,

[60:57] it's not just LeBron. Like there'sthere's Conor McDavid with Sports or isit I think it's BenMGM actually ConorMcDavid's involved. He's the the best

[61:07] hockey player. So, I don't know. I don'tknow about the legal aspect. Justsomething about it doesn't sit rightwith me when the current athletes aregetting involved. I I do believe a law

[61:18] has been passed where they can't wearanything representing their status as anathlete. So like LeBron couldn't do thisin a Lakers jersey or Conor McDavidcouldn't do promo in in an Oilers jersey

[61:30] for example, which I I I think was agood step. But ultimately, I don't knowabout the legality of it, but maybeIsaac Roseber does a bit more on thetopic than myself. But if uh anything

[61:42] else to add, guys, on that? Are we readyto wrap it up?>> All right.We'll wrap it all up. Thank you so muchfor tuning in today to this edition ofCircle Back. If you enjoyed, take amoment to hit the like button. Make sure

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