[00:00] Why do all these sharp sports bers have

[00:02] such big egos? And I think I replied

[00:04] like I win money by being right.

[00:07] >> Yeah.

[00:08] >> What do you expect? Like what what do

[00:10] you think is going to happen? Of course

[00:12] I think I'm right all the time.

[00:13] >> This this might have to be a separate

[00:15] podcast entirely because I can go on for

[00:17] there was so much you said there that I

[00:19] can pick up on. You know, there's

[00:20] there's a lot of patterns and like I

[00:22] really don't want to give away too many

[00:23] of these, but like that is what the

[00:26] trader's job is meant to be. What is the

[00:28] dumbest thing that you see done

[00:30] consistently by uh let's even say good

[00:32] betterers or sharp betterers that gets

[00:34] them limited faster than they need to be

[00:36] at a sports book.

[00:39] >> Here we go.

[00:41] >> Welcome back into circles off. We have

[00:43] an interview episode lined up for you

[00:45] today. It's been a while since our last

[00:46] interview. Our guest is someone who was

[00:49] last on this channel over two years ago.

[00:52] It was episode number 121 back when we

[00:55] actually used to keep track of the

[00:56] episode numbers. I have no idea what

[00:58] we're on right now. That episode was one

[01:00] of our most popular interviews because

[01:03] the guest has a reputation and he gave

[01:05] us an inside look at how Recreational

[01:07] Sportsbook Trading Room works. He's a

[01:09] former sportsbook trader at Points Bet.

[01:13] Worked in New Zealand, Australia, then

[01:16] in the US when Points Bet was first

[01:17] launching in New Jersey. Left the book

[01:20] side in early 2023 to bet and he's been

[01:23] doing that ever since. He's one of the

[01:25] more sharper and more respected voices

[01:27] in the betting space. Definitely one of

[01:29] the more polarizing people on betting

[01:31] Twitter as well. His bio just says

[01:35] retweet RT RT equals [ __ ] which I want

[01:39] to get into that uh because he does a

[01:41] lot of retweeting and I've unfortunately

[01:43] been retweeted as well. You know him as

[01:45] Shipper ship to justice on Twitter.

[01:48] Shipper, welcome back to circles off.

[01:51] >> Great to be here Rob. Thank you very

[01:52] much. And uh I do have, as you called me

[01:55] the last time, the shitty points bet

[01:56] trader. I've got the I've dug this out.

[01:58] It's uh smells terrible. I don't think

[02:00] I've washed it for a few years. So uh

[02:02] yeah, it's uh it's good to good to toss

[02:04] the colors back on again.

[02:06] >> There you go. Every you know, every now

[02:07] and then you rep a brand that's familiar

[02:08] to you. For me, I got my my bet stamp

[02:10] hoodie for you. Points Bet showed you

[02:13] the ropes. Obviously everything you know

[02:15] today, shipper, I know you know you owe

[02:17] a points bet for sure.

[02:18] >> It's not actually a dress as well. It's

[02:20] a it's actually a t-shirt. Um, so

[02:22] Spanky, uh, Spanky was wrong that we,

[02:24] uh, put put the dress on.

[02:27] >> Uh, last time you were on here, uh, you

[02:30] were pretty fresh into full-time betting

[02:32] at that point. Uh, you had just left

[02:34] Points Bet, I believe. Couple years deep

[02:36] now. How has life life changed since I

[02:38] last talked to you?

[02:40] >> Yeah, it's hasn't changed too much. Um,

[02:42] as you can see behind me, I've I've

[02:43] changed location. Uh, I've moved to the

[02:46] the great city city of Chicago. Uh, you

[02:48] can see Lake Michigan behind me. Uh, and

[02:52] really I kind of found a groove pretty

[02:54] much straight away. Um, I'm I'm very

[02:56] much a creature of habit. Uh, and so it

[03:00] it meant that I was able to just kind of

[03:01] slot in right away and and uh I'm I've

[03:05] added a few strings to my bow, but I'm

[03:07] kind of still doing pretty similar

[03:08] stuff.

[03:09] >> All right. Well, I want to dive into

[03:10] that a little bit further. Um, first and

[03:13] foremost, now that you're more on the

[03:14] betting side rather than the trading

[03:16] side, what what does your day-to-day

[03:18] look like now that you're a full-time

[03:20] better? Um, are you up early in the

[03:22] mornings? I know that you're you're

[03:24] involved in a bunch of different

[03:25] markets, including some of them being

[03:26] futures, so maybe it's not as uh time

[03:28] inensive of a schedule, but but what

[03:30] does your day-to-day look like?

[03:32] >> Yeah, I try to uh get up in the morning,

[03:34] get a little quick cardio in. Actually,

[03:36] I you like this, Rob, as a as an Italian

[03:39] sports fan. I I tossed on my full

[03:42] Italian Lyra to uh to go for a cycle

[03:44] down the lakefront this morning. So if

[03:46] anyone in Chicago sees a guy randomly

[03:48] wearing the leaning tower of Pisa riding

[03:50] down the lakefront, uh that's actually

[03:53] me. So yeah, try and get that in in the

[03:55] mornings and then go for a little

[03:57] wander, get a coffee with my wife. Uh be

[03:59] very intentional about that and then um

[04:01] and then just be at the laptop by about

[04:03] 9:00 a.m. I try to be somewhat of a you

[04:06] know 9 to5. it always ends up going

[04:08] later but like a nineto-five type

[04:10] operator uh just to fit in with society

[04:13] obviously you have um a lot of things

[04:16] that crop up in this business but and

[04:18] and you get a lot of flexibility too but

[04:21] um yeah I try to try to assimilate a

[04:23] little bit with culture just just for um

[04:25] social reasons really

[04:26] >> yeah I mean it's healthy at all times uh

[04:29] I you know I'm thinking about you

[04:31] mentioned the Italian sports by the time

[04:32] this comes out people will know whether

[04:34] or not Italy had actually made the World

[04:36] Cup uh but as of now when we're

[04:38] recording it, I have no idea. I'm

[04:39] sweating waiting for that uh game, but I

[04:42] do appreciate you sharing some uh you

[04:44] know, some Italian camaraderie there. Um

[04:46] >> if they take the if they take the

[04:48] Iranian slot, they'll actually play New

[04:49] Zealand in the first game and I'm going

[04:51] to that game out of Los Angeles. So uh

[04:53] it'll be a grudge match. So that's

[04:55] really interesting that you mentioned

[04:56] that because if they don't and they just

[04:59] secure a placement as is right now, they

[05:01] would play Canada in the first game in

[05:04] Toronto and we are very near the stadium

[05:07] here like it's our backyard basically.

[05:09] So it would be a pretty rockous

[05:11] atmosphere. I can't say I will be going

[05:13] to that game though. Um tickets right

[05:16] now for that game Italy Canada are going

[05:19] for more than World Series game seven

[05:21] with the Blue Jays if you can believe

[05:23] it. That's how big the Italian community

[05:24] is here in Toronto. So, that'll be nuts.

[05:27] >> I think I paid 660 USD to go to this

[05:29] game in Los Angeles.

[05:30] >> We're looking at about 5,000 bucks here

[05:33] as uh as entry level right now, which I

[05:36] listen, I'm more than down to pay, but I

[05:38] already don't love going to sporting

[05:39] events. Plus, I mean, we're getting

[05:41] derailed here, but there's a lot of

[05:42] temporary seating at Bimbo where I I've

[05:46] been part of, you know, those before for

[05:48] MLS Cups, and it's just it's not the

[05:50] same. Like, you don't even feel like

[05:51] you're part of the atmosphere.

[05:53] Um, I listened back to our original

[05:55] interview this week. Uh, I listened to

[05:57] some of your guest appearances elsewhere

[05:59] as well, Shipper. Um, you've talked

[06:01] about, um, in different capacities about

[06:03] your thoughts on working with a partner

[06:05] versus betting solo. I'm just curious

[06:08] how your operation has gone since you've

[06:10] gone full-time betting. Uh, has that

[06:12] grown? Are you working with partners? Is

[06:14] it still primarily yourself?

[06:16] >> Just uh, just one partner. I've been

[06:18] been with that same partner uh,

[06:20] basically since the inception. And like

[06:22] our operation hasn't really grown from

[06:25] an addition of PE uh personnel, but it's

[06:28] definitely grown in terms of the amount

[06:30] of markets that we attack or the amount

[06:32] of capital that we deploy and just

[06:34] trying to grow and expand and get

[06:36] bigger, but um we haven't really felt

[06:39] the need to bring anyone else on and and

[06:42] uh and the the slra slicing off of the

[06:45] pie that would come with that. So that's

[06:47] always a trade-off. Um, but it it's

[06:50] never really been a a question. We're

[06:51] kind of just still sticking with the

[06:53] twoman operation.

[06:54] >> Yeah. When you were last on, um, and

[06:57] also through Twitter over the years, um,

[07:00] you were definitive that kicking out

[07:03] winners from recreational sports books.

[07:06] That has got to be the most optimal

[07:08] strategy, right? You say the information

[07:10] is essentially free. You watch the

[07:12] screen. Have you wavered on that opinion

[07:14] at all? Because you were really adamant

[07:16] about that last time. And I think a lot

[07:18] of times when I see interactions with

[07:20] people and you on on Twitter or X as

[07:22] it's called now, a lot of it is stems

[07:24] from your notions or your um your

[07:27] history working in a recreational

[07:29] sportsbook trading room. So do you still

[07:31] believe and echo a lot of those

[07:32] sentiments that you gave a couple years

[07:34] ago?

[07:35] >> Yeah, for sure. I still think it's uh

[07:37] the right way to go and do it. Um, I

[07:40] probably didn't do a great job of

[07:42] painting my position in that I still

[07:44] think trading is a really really

[07:45] valuable and important part of the

[07:47] business. And I still think that there's

[07:49] a lot of value to having correct prices

[07:52] on site, but none of neither of those

[07:56] really is about being able to book sharp

[07:58] action. I think people always had like

[08:00] the wrong reasons about why you should

[08:02] have good prices on site. like you

[08:04] should have good prices on site so you

[08:05] could get out of the way uh and like

[08:08] just allow people to bet without having

[08:10] to worry allows you to row in the same

[08:12] direction as the rest of your company.

[08:14] Uh and so yeah, I still feel pretty

[08:17] strongly that uh that having uh winners

[08:21] kind of uh siphoning profits from your

[08:23] book is like not that valuable. What

[08:25] What about you? What do you think? Um, I

[08:27] assume your views have kind of changed a

[08:29] little bit over time as we've as it's

[08:31] become more normalized, I suppose, and

[08:33] you've heard a few more arguments about

[08:35] it.

[08:35] >> Yeah, I mean I mean I tend to agree with

[08:38] you. Um, obviously I I have very similar

[08:40] experience to you, but but just in the

[08:42] offshore space really is what it comes

[08:44] down to. So I viewed everything through

[08:46] that lens. But the reality is when when

[08:48] that information is, you know, quote

[08:50] unquote free to you and essentially

[08:52] accessible at at any time, I I don't see

[08:55] why you would have to do anything

[08:56] differently. It sucks for the betting

[08:58] side of things, but it also kind of

[09:01] helps us as betterers as well. Like in a

[09:04] sense, you know, when you're trying to

[09:06] when you're aspiring to be a really good

[09:08] better and one of the uh obstacles to

[09:10] overcome is limiting, well, that stops a

[09:13] lot of people in their tracks. you know,

[09:15] some people go out and they win and then

[09:16] they're like, well, I can't get any

[09:17] accounts anymore and they move on to

[09:19] something else. I think o being able to

[09:21] overcome those as a better um is,

[09:26] you know, paramount to to to scaling and

[09:28] and and building something through that.

[09:30] And I actually like to talk to you about

[09:32] that a little bit more because um we've

[09:34] done full episodes on circles off about

[09:37] um avoiding detection as a sharp better

[09:41] um things of that nature. you've become

[09:44] uh at least from my perspective, I'll

[09:46] call it like a go-to voice on account

[09:48] longevity. You do frequently tweet tweet

[09:51] about that. I see you respond to other

[09:53] people on Twitter uh when you disagree

[09:55] about stuff like that. You've talked

[09:57] about like an unexploitable strategy

[09:59] before that um it stems from poker uh

[10:03] game theory optimization GTO concepts.

[10:05] Um, actually before we go a little bit

[10:07] deeper into that for the audience that

[10:08] may have not have heard you describe

[10:10] that anymore,

[10:12] what's the elevator pitch on that, can

[10:14] you just give like a brief uh, you know,

[10:16] definition of what that means?

[10:19] >> Yeah, I actually wrote about it um, one

[10:21] time in in an email exchange with Owen

[10:23] Phillips, who's now uh, works for the

[10:25] Denver Nuggets. And the way that I

[10:27] analogized it was if you go in and you

[10:30] play like pickup basketball with some

[10:33] like 16 year olds and you're a big

[10:35] strong dude, you could like waltz down

[10:37] there and just like put the little

[10:39] 16-year-old in the basket over and over

[10:41] and over again. And then like his dad is

[10:44] going to come up to you and be like,

[10:45] "Hey sir, we would just appreciate it if

[10:47] you don't play here anymore." Um, so I

[10:50] think like you got to go in, you got to

[10:52] you got to give him a couple of midies.

[10:53] You got to play like a you got to

[10:55] dominate in a way that's more subtle and

[10:57] more varied. Uh and so you can't just

[10:59] like go in there and just just

[11:01] absolutely plaster them and put them in

[11:03] the basket over and over again.

[11:04] >> Yeah, makes a lot of sense. I don't have

[11:05] that issue with my pickup games, but uh

[11:07] may maybe you do. You look like you can

[11:09] ball. Uh okay, let's do a concrete

[11:11] example of that now. So you log into a

[11:13] regulated book where you have tons of

[11:15] edges available to you. How do you

[11:17] structure a session from start to finish

[11:20] so that a trader doesn't flag you

[11:21] immediately? Yeah. So, I like to call uh

[11:25] the winning bets, I like to call them

[11:26] pocket aces. And then the uh the kind of

[11:30] the cover that you have, I like to call

[11:32] that ace5 suited. The reason that that

[11:35] comes from poker where if you play a

[11:37] five suited the same way that you play

[11:39] aces, then it's a really really good set

[11:42] of cards to have because Ace5 suited

[11:44] holds up well against kings, queens, uh

[11:47] and it makes it quite unlikely that the

[11:49] opponent uh has aces. So like it gives

[11:52] you a lot of um external benefits that

[11:55] you're uh to to kind of pair with your

[11:57] aces. And if you want people to call

[11:59] you, you have to be able to play kind of

[12:01] a range of uh a range of cards. So in

[12:05] sports betting, it's about if you want

[12:07] people to accept your shitty bets, you

[12:09] need to have some kind of bad well, I

[12:12] suppose some bets that look a little bit

[12:14] better to them. in terms of concrete

[12:16] examples, it's kind of difficult because

[12:19] obviously I'm not going to give out

[12:20] anything that's still alive. Uh but and

[12:25] then kind of describing things that that

[12:27] no longer exists is a little bit tough,

[12:28] but let's say for example, you have this

[12:31] like SGP, you have an SGP angle. Um you

[12:35] could just play that and play that and

[12:37] play that and like even that one, it's

[12:39] quite hard for them to figure out that

[12:41] this bed is bad. Like it looks really

[12:43] good to them initially. But if you only

[12:45] ever play that, they are going to be

[12:47] like, why the hell does this guy only

[12:49] ever play um wide receiver one over

[12:52] parlayed with like the other team to

[12:54] win, right?

[12:55] >> Or the other team to cover.

[12:56] >> And so you're kind of trying to look for

[12:59] other bets that could pair with pair

[13:01] well with that. One of them might just

[13:04] be low hold uh bets at post. If you

[13:08] could find something that is, you know,

[13:10] negative 1% negative 2% and you have

[13:13] sort of 30% um an expected ROI of 30% on

[13:18] your SGP, it's going to take a lot of

[13:20] like ones and twos to like whittle that

[13:22] down. And so you can kind of mix those

[13:24] all in together. Um but then kind of the

[13:26] the other one that I think is really

[13:28] really valuable is if you can find a way

[13:30] to hedge it, then it gives you like an

[13:32] extra benefit. So, if you're paying

[13:34] typically if you're just like paying 2%

[13:36] to hedge a wager, that could be good,

[13:39] could be bad. But if you're paying 2% to

[13:41] win to hedge a wager and it also gives

[13:44] you more account longevity uh on the

[13:46] back end, then that's really really

[13:47] valuable. Obviously, you wouldn't want

[13:48] to do that at the same book cuz like

[13:50] then they could figure out what you're

[13:51] doing. Uh but if you can kind of like

[13:53] start to mix all of that across

[13:55] different accounts now you're starting

[13:56] to cook. In your experience in the last

[13:58] couple years, has has the sophistication

[14:01] on the book side changed at all versus

[14:03] when you were working for a book? Like

[14:06] do you think it's easier to bypass

[14:08] limits nowadays? Is it harder? Have you

[14:11] noticed that?

[14:12] >> Uh the automation's got a lot better. Uh

[14:15] so that is definitely it's definitely

[14:17] probably caught a lot of people out

[14:20] more. Um but with automation become

[14:23] comes exploitation. Like if somebody

[14:25] just does the same thing over and over

[14:27] and over again, you can exploit it. Like

[14:29] um if a security guard you can map his

[14:33] route around and around, then you can

[14:35] exploit uh that security guard's route,

[14:38] right? Like you can just go and steal

[14:40] when he's facing the other way.

[14:42] >> That's the plot of every Hollywood movie

[14:44] that ends up in a heist. They know

[14:45] exactly which route the security is

[14:47] going to take on that day and they they

[14:48] hit him in the road or whatever. And

[14:50] sorry

[14:51] >> I watched I watched the town for the

[14:52] first time and the first time ever. So

[14:55] it's fresh on my mind is to uh it's just

[14:57] to operate like the town. But so it's

[14:59] definitely got better from an automation

[15:01] perspective. But like um there's

[15:03] actually there's actually a lot of value

[15:06] to like people being involved cuz people

[15:08] are random and if they just do random

[15:12] [ __ ] then I can't really figure it out.

[15:13] So um it's probably it's I wouldn't say

[15:16] it's become easier for me. It's

[15:17] definitely become harder. Uh but it's

[15:20] but I feel like if I try to take as much

[15:24] of a picture as possible from the

[15:26] sportsbook side, then I can uh I can

[15:29] sort of uh figure out what to do.

[15:31] >> I wonder if uh over automation will

[15:34] become a problem for sports books. I

[15:36] mean, I've I've heard Jeff Fineberg

[15:38] mention this on Circle Back with Me

[15:39] before where he's just like, I can't bet

[15:40] golf anywhere uh simply because I look

[15:43] for the best number and now I'm limited

[15:46] when these guys should they should just

[15:48] be giving me limits for everything else,

[15:50] but they don't. And I wonder if that's

[15:52] the case now where a lot of people are

[15:54] just going to get caught up in some sort

[15:56] of rule that was created on the back

[15:58] end, like if you see this type of

[15:59] behavior limit. Um because I've

[16:02] personally experienced a lot of listen,

[16:05] we never know if people are really truly

[16:07] limited or they just like to say it. But

[16:10] I've had many people come to me and be

[16:12] like, "Oh, I got limited here and and

[16:13] I'm like I don't I don't know who could

[16:15] possibly limit, you know, not saying

[16:17] this to their face, but I I feel like

[16:19] over automation might end up being a

[16:20] problem."

[16:22] >> Yeah. I find that like that does a

[16:24] decent job of catching uh that does a

[16:27] decent job of Yeah. catching the the the

[16:29] big masses. But as you say, like if

[16:32] someone bets something and there's a

[16:34] random injury, that's going to show up

[16:35] on a CLV report, right? Like if you bet

[16:37] uh against the Lakers and Luca Donuch is

[16:40] randomly out and you get five points of

[16:42] closing line value, like you're going to

[16:44] show up on a CLV report, uh even though

[16:46] you just got randomly lucky, you didn't

[16:48] even know that Luca was out. So, um

[16:51] yeah, it it's uh going with a crude bat

[16:55] doesn't always work. you need to

[16:56] intelligently design these systems. Um,

[16:59] yeah, but there's definitely I think

[17:02] there's still a lot more error where

[17:03] they're not catching sharps than they

[17:06] are like catching wrecks and and like

[17:08] kicking them out um unnecessarily.

[17:10] >> Yeah. If you had to make an educated

[17:12] guess, do you do you think betters are

[17:14] getting smarter when it comes to this

[17:15] stuff? like last time we had you on,

[17:17] it's a couple years ago, but you said

[17:19] you could catch a sharp better within

[17:21] one bet based off of how they used the

[17:24] promo and um you know, I never really

[17:27] thought about that because like there

[17:28] was sadly one point in time, this is

[17:30] like four years ago, I was trying to

[17:32] maximize the promos at the and then I'm

[17:33] I'm thinking about it from that

[17:34] perspective like oh yeah, it makes a lot

[17:36] of sense. Do you think that betters are

[17:38] generally getting smarter or do you

[17:39] think across the industry it's kind of

[17:41] same spot we were at a couple years ago

[17:43] when we were chatting? I think a a

[17:45] little bit smarter for sure, but like a

[17:47] lot of it is they just took the advice

[17:48] that I that I gave on that pod and then

[17:50] just um get really annoyed when it

[17:53] doesn't work. Like

[17:55] there is not going to be a

[17:56] one-sizefits-all approach for for any of

[17:59] this. Um you can't just say like, "Oh, I

[18:02] have this single and I'm going to put it

[18:04] with like sometimes you send some stuff

[18:06] to a mover and they're like, okay, yeah,

[18:08] sweet. I'll I'll bet it in a parlay."

[18:10] and they like parlay it with the

[18:11] shortest price NFL money line and it's

[18:14] like yeah that still stands out as so

[18:16] obvious you need to you need to think a

[18:18] lot bigger like it's like anything like

[18:21] this business rewards originality this

[18:23] business rewards creative thinking and

[18:26] and that that happens at every single

[18:28] level like you know there's been ways

[18:31] where you can just formulaically print

[18:33] money but to like scale up and get

[18:35] better to bypass the easiest levels of

[18:39] um oh Sorry. To get past like the the

[18:41] second level of um account longevity

[18:43] stuff, you have to you have to do some

[18:44] thinking. Like you can't just

[18:47] formulaically do stuff and be like, "Oh,

[18:49] somebody told me to do this and so I'm

[18:51] just going to do it into oblivion." Like

[18:52] maybe just think about it a little bit.

[18:54] Completely agree with that. Um, I've

[18:57] talked to many good bettors over the

[18:59] years and there is a um I I want to say

[19:03] honestly very close to a 50-50 split on

[19:05] whether they like to go into an account

[19:08] and just go to town and find more

[19:11] accounts afterwards versus, you know,

[19:14] quote unquote prime the account because

[19:16] the the value that they'll get out of

[19:18] that account if they make it look like a

[19:20] losing account for a longer period of

[19:21] time is higher EV in the long run.

[19:24] You've said in the past that you take

[19:26] the position where like betting the best

[19:28] price in market is not always the best

[19:31] type of move for more of the latter

[19:33] reason. Are you able to actually

[19:36] calculate EV on both? Have you run

[19:38] experiments like AB tests or anything

[19:40] like that or is this like your opinion

[19:42] kind of stemmed in uh is it feel or math

[19:44] basically?

[19:46] >> Uh I think Henry from Novig one time

[19:48] tweeted out a meme called the concluer

[19:51] and I definitely like fall in the

[19:52] concludder. um bracket where I just kind

[19:55] of like make a lot of conclusions rather

[19:57] than having to do much testing. Uh but I

[20:01] like it's there is definitely some math

[20:03] to it as well. Like we I've talked about

[20:05] this on a different podcast, but we

[20:07] track where every single price closes.

[20:10] Uh not just from like the no vig price,

[20:13] like we track it from the actual I mean

[20:16] sorry, sorry, not just from like the the

[20:18] vigs price or the the vig free price.

[20:20] Yeah, we take it from like the vig price

[20:23] on uh on a sports book. So, for example,

[20:27] if you bet something at minus 110 and

[20:30] then it closes - 105, like that should

[20:33] show up as like a minus 2% bet for you

[20:36] um on their back end. If you if you bet

[20:39] it um or sorry, if it closes - 115, if

[20:42] it closes minus 105, then it's going to

[20:44] show up as kind of like a minus 7% bet.

[20:46] And so trying to put a exact value on

[20:50] every single wager that you place with

[20:51] the book, then you can kind of like

[20:53] acrue all of those and then you can give

[20:56] yourself your own internal version of

[20:58] like what they think you're worth. Uh

[21:01] and so I'm trying to um I'm always

[21:05] trying to track that. I'm trying to

[21:06] track everything. Like I I want to track

[21:08] the mix the mix that I have. I want to

[21:10] track the straits versus parlays. I want

[21:13] to track the percentage of bets that I

[21:14] place on SGPs. I want to track like as

[21:16] much as possible and so um I think like

[21:18] doing all of that is quite valuable in

[21:21] terms of like testing it. Uh we don't

[21:24] run through that many accounts. So um

[21:26] ultimately the sample is probably not

[21:28] big enough to to do too much testing.

[21:30] >> Yeah. So I'm kind of in the same boat as

[21:32] you nowadays where um I probably was

[21:36] more of a feel guy before as well or I

[21:38] guess I was the concluer where it's like

[21:40] well no this just makes sense. I'm going

[21:41] to go this route where nowadays,

[21:43] especially with the explosion of like

[21:45] Claude AI for example, where I can take

[21:47] a sportsbook history and upload it to

[21:50] Claude and for every account I've ever

[21:52] had and I can find EV on certain

[21:54] accounts whether I prime them or not.

[21:56] Like that's completely changed betting

[21:59] for me where AI is now such a useful

[22:02] tool to do analysis that would have

[22:05] taken me weeks that I would have never

[22:06] done before where now I can tell you

[22:08] well you know if I have a bet 365 primed

[22:11] account like I know it's worth roughly X

[22:14] versus not primed whatever other sports

[22:17] books.

[22:18] I've kind of done done the same thing in

[22:20] my own personal betting now. And I'll be

[22:22] honest with you, I'm surprised at how um

[22:26] the results may have deviated from what

[22:28] I would have thought.

[22:31] >> Yeah, I think I think that's like

[22:34] definitely possible and it's often a

[22:36] leak on the on the books uh on the books

[22:38] end too. Like

[22:40] >> but I think the whole point of

[22:42] unexloitability is you want to build

[22:44] like you want to build an infrastructure

[22:46] so that you can be unexploitable and

[22:49] then you can de deviate away from it.

[22:51] Like the pe the best poker players in

[22:52] the world they understand how to play

[22:55] GTO and then if a whale comes and sits

[22:57] down at their table they will they will

[22:59] uh deviate away from what is GTO. So

[23:01] like it's really good. It's like I

[23:03] always used to clown on like taking the

[23:05] best price and things like that, but I

[23:07] still I still think like understanding

[23:10] the value of like line shopping,

[23:12] understanding the value of all of these

[23:14] like kind of what I like to call like

[23:16] baseline things is very very important,

[23:19] but then you need to figure out when to

[23:21] deviate away from that afterwards.

[23:23] >> Yeah, I think that's a really good

[23:24] point. I try to stress that a lot and I

[23:26] you've already mentioned it once today,

[23:28] which is there's not a one-sizefits-all.

[23:30] Like the betting journey spans a really

[23:33] long time. And what might make sense for

[23:35] one better, you know, for a pure loser,

[23:38] taking the best line is a, you know,

[23:40] recommended on there. They're just

[23:42] simply going to lose less by finding the

[23:44] best price. But for someone who is able

[23:47] to win at scale, you know, sometimes

[23:49] just consistently picking off the book

[23:50] with the best price is not going to be

[23:52] the optimal strategy. So, it really

[23:54] depends on um the betting journey,

[23:56] shipper. Um,

[23:57] >> sorry, I'll continue to tug at that.

[23:59] Like if you are a college kid and like

[24:01] you're 22 years old and you just came

[24:03] out of a frat like you should probably

[24:05] shouldn't be probably shouldn't be

[24:07] maximizing account longevity. You just

[24:09] have like an endless stream of accounts.

[24:11] Um you know and so you need to figure

[24:14] out like what position that you're in

[24:15] and then like maximize it for yourself.

[24:17] Yeah, totally agree. Uh I would say that

[24:20] as the years have grown the circles off

[24:23] audience has largely changed. I used to

[24:25] start this podcast uh and I did it with

[24:27] Johnny and the whole goal was to appeal

[24:29] only to a sharp audience, other sharps

[24:31] in the space. Uh it's definitely evolved

[24:33] now to where about 50% of our views on

[24:36] on every video are coming from new

[24:38] viewers. So a more casual recreational

[24:41] audience. Uh but we also have a core of

[24:44] what I would call semi-sharp. They're

[24:46] the ones that they now understand a lot

[24:48] of what goes into sports betting.

[24:50] they're taking the the next leap from

[24:52] losing better to maybe small winning

[24:54] better or you know a little bit higher

[24:56] than that. Uh I'm curious what what is

[25:00] and this might lend itself to a

[25:02] conversation for the larger population.

[25:04] What is the dumbest thing that you see

[25:06] done consistently by uh let's even say

[25:08] good beters or sharp betterers that gets

[25:10] them limited faster than they need to be

[25:13] at a sports book? I think it's hard to

[25:15] say now having not kind of been on the

[25:17] booking side for a little bit, but the

[25:19] the one that always used to crack me up

[25:21] was uh was like the 8 a.m. Steam chaser.

[25:24] Um it was so obvious like when limits go

[25:27] up um or you know and the the reason why

[25:30] this show is called circles off when the

[25:32] circles come off at Pinnacle. Um then

[25:35] there's a lot more there's a lot of

[25:36] people that enter the market, right?

[25:38] Like that's when kind of we used to call

[25:39] it the feeding frenzy. That would be

[25:42] when there would be a lot of line

[25:43] movement and people would just jump in

[25:45] and chase that steam and it's like and

[25:48] then they would be mythed as to why they

[25:49] got limited uh because they're betting a

[25:52] major market. Like they're betting on

[25:53] the NBA. Why would they get limited if

[25:55] they were betting on the NBA? Well, it's

[25:56] just so obvious. Like you only log in at

[25:58] 9:00 a.m. and you just click you just

[26:01] click whatever is just moved on the

[26:02] screen. Like uh it was yeah very very

[26:05] easy to catch people that way. And

[26:06] there's probably some new age versions

[26:07] of that. I'm sure, you know, just

[26:09] blindly like taking some um ETR or

[26:12] something like that like is probably

[26:14] quite bad. But um yeah, I I can't really

[26:17] say what the like what the common one

[26:19] would be now. Oh, actually maybe maybe

[26:22] like the step above that would be like

[26:24] remember when Alf and all of his boys

[26:26] went and uh hired out a house in Arizona

[26:28] and they all bet off the same Wi-Fi and

[26:30] then they were like mythed as to why uh

[26:33] myth as to why all their accounts got

[26:34] locked. I would say that betting in

[26:36] proximity with other bettors, yeah, in

[26:39] the same household where it can easily

[26:40] be tracked is a really really dumb way

[26:44] to get your your account shut down. Um,

[26:47] even further to that, now uh you

[26:49] probably know this, you um you almost

[26:51] certainly know this, but there's a lot

[26:52] of these sites now have technology where

[26:55] they can track um how close phones are

[26:58] uh to each other, proximity of one phone

[27:01] to another. So yeah, anything where

[27:03] you're a sharp, especially if you're

[27:05] going to go down the path of multi

[27:07] accounting and and I can't advise that

[27:09] you do that, but it certainly happens in

[27:10] the space, not advising it, but if

[27:13] you're going to do that, do it do it in

[27:15] a way where it's it's foolproof. Don't

[27:17] do it in a way where you're on the same

[27:18] Wi-Fi. Yeah, for sure.

[27:20] >> Mhm.

[27:21] >> Um, want to pivot a little bit to

[27:23] talking a bit of modeling with you. Uh,

[27:26] not trying to to get you to give away

[27:28] your edges or where you bet or anything.

[27:30] I'm more interested in how you think

[27:32] about building models and uh where you

[27:35] think maybe the industry has blind

[27:36] spots. So, um first and foremost, I

[27:39] guess I'll just ask you up front, how

[27:41] much of your, you know, capping or

[27:44] handicapping or betting is is model

[27:47] based nowadays?

[27:48] >> Uh basically all of it. Um, but the

[27:50] thing is is like what a what a model

[27:53] actually looks like and like what's what

[27:54] level of automation you get to kind of

[27:57] would would change how people view

[28:00] things as a model. Like I think a really

[28:02] good example for this is um is Koshi

[28:05] actually just recently came out with um

[28:08] with markets on who was going to make

[28:10] all NBA which is like right in my

[28:12] wheelhouse. Uh I love betting futures. I

[28:14] love betting the NBA. The NBA is the

[28:16] thing I understand the most. Uh, but I

[28:18] didn't have a framework for it because

[28:19] it's never been offered at a soft book

[28:20] before. It's never been offered kind of

[28:22] anywhere else as far as I can tell. And

[28:24] so there are like to me there were like

[28:27] three levels of modeling I could go to.

[28:31] The first one is like just go in and

[28:34] have this set of probabilities. So let's

[28:36] say for Kawhai Leonard, I think that if

[28:40] he's if he qualifies, so I have this

[28:42] qualification probability and then I

[28:44] have if he qualifies, I think he's 20%

[28:47] to make the first team, 75% to make the

[28:50] the second team, and 5% to make the

[28:52] third team. And I've like done that for

[28:54] each of each of the players, and it

[28:56] works out to be um you know, five slots

[28:58] for each. Cool. That's fine. But like

[29:00] that is not a repeatable process. And so

[29:03] to me that isn't really like I think a

[29:06] model to define a model I think it has

[29:08] to be repeatable. Mhm.

[29:10] >> So like you can then go to the next step

[29:13] of that and like I try to think okay

[29:16] what what is my process to define who's

[29:20] going to make these teams and who like

[29:22] how people how voting is going to be

[29:24] done to me there's just a value and then

[29:27] there's a then there's a variance and so

[29:29] like that value could be built up

[29:31] statistically like I could run some

[29:34] regressions on how all NBA has been

[29:37] voted in in the past um throw in factors

[29:40] like team success, individual uh

[29:42] statistics, um like uh how popular the

[29:46] player is, yada yada yada yada. Like I

[29:48] could just test and test and test. Um

[29:50] but that kind of doesn't allow you to be

[29:52] very malleable. It doesn't allow you to

[29:54] be to put your thumb on the scale as

[29:56] much. And like for something that's a

[29:58] little bit more subjective, I wanted to

[30:00] be able to do it in a way that was kind

[30:02] of more subjective myself. And so what I

[30:04] ended up doing was I just built I just

[30:07] gave them a score out of a 100 and then

[30:10] gave them a variance and then I built

[30:13] the sim on top of that. So the sim would

[30:15] just draw from a distribution and it

[30:18] would have the score and the variance

[30:19] and then it would order them based by

[30:21] score. And that was like a really e

[30:23] easily repeatable process that I was

[30:25] like okay with doing like let's say the

[30:29] the Hornets beat the Knicks and like

[30:30] LaMelo Ball plays well. Cool. like

[30:33] LaMelo maybe needs to just go up two and

[30:35] then like Cat and Brunson need to go

[30:37] down one or like maybe cat needs to go

[30:40] down 1.5 and Brunson goes down 0.5 rerun

[30:43] bang all done new prices all set and so

[30:45] that's like a repeatable structure I

[30:48] haven't gone all the way to like

[30:50] automating it um but I have done it in a

[30:53] way that's like very repeatable while

[30:55] still maintaining like the malleability

[30:57] and so I try to think a lot about that

[30:59] about like designing the the structure

[31:01] in the first us.

[31:02] >> Yeah, I love this conversation because

[31:04] um it kind of reminds me of uh COVID

[31:08] year where there was the NFL draft. The

[31:10] NFL draft was a big betting market that

[31:12] that year and then it's kind of scaled

[31:14] off since then. But I built a sim of the

[31:17] NFL draft and it had a lot of people who

[31:19] would be like, "How could you possibly

[31:21] do this?" And it's it's kind of taking a

[31:24] lot of subjective analysis and then

[31:26] putting it into like a mathematical

[31:28] framework. kind of hard to describe, but

[31:32] you know, I find building those types of

[31:35] models out to be incredibly interesting.

[31:38] It's also where

[31:41] knowing ball can actually accelerate the

[31:44] model a little bit versus someone who

[31:46] doesn't know ball where you're, you

[31:48] know, you're confident enough when

[31:49] you're putting in the inputs saying,

[31:51] well, if X happens, then this is likely

[31:54] the probability of Y. where whereas if

[31:57] it was trained off of some historical

[31:59] analysis of the league, you'd get

[32:01] something completely different, which is

[32:03] why I can't stand a lot of the tweets

[32:05] out there that are like, well, no team

[32:07] in the NCAA tournament has ever, you

[32:09] know, made the Sweet 16 with this

[32:11] profile. It's like, who cares? Like,

[32:13] we're on to a new year now. Maybe the

[32:15] game is refereeed differently than it

[32:17] used to be. Maybe there's a wider gap

[32:18] between these teams, uh, which there is

[32:20] this year. So, like it's all it's all of

[32:23] this stuff and like trying to figure out

[32:25] a way to work it in. Um, but yeah, I I

[32:30] just I like trying to price uncertainty,

[32:34] right? And I I like really digging in on

[32:39] a league and saying like, "No, I I I'm

[32:42] going to I'm going to challenge the

[32:44] status quo that that is out there and

[32:46] and put it into a mathematical

[32:48] framework." And um yeah, I could think

[32:51] of all sorts of things that I want to

[32:53] tackle in sports which are exactly what

[32:55] you're describing, right? Maybe futures

[32:56] has got to be my next thing honestly,

[32:58] shipper, because

[32:59] >> I don't please please don't. Um

[33:02] to me to me it's a it's a it's a

[33:05] trade-off of rigidity and malleability.

[33:07] You need to be rigid rigid in your in

[33:09] your process and your underlying

[33:11] infrastructure, but you need to be

[33:12] malleable in the way that it all is all

[33:14] designed. Like let's think of your

[33:17] price. I don't know. You probably do

[33:18] this for for the NFL. Now, like I don't

[33:20] I don't want to give away too many trade

[33:22] secrets, but like let's say that like

[33:24] Aaron Donald was coming back from a

[33:26] bicep tear. Now, you have like a normal

[33:30] time decay waiting that you have in

[33:32] there around like say his PFF grade or

[33:34] whatever, but like you need to be

[33:36] malleable and have the ability to like

[33:39] down weight those first couple of weeks

[33:41] when he comes back from the bicep tear.

[33:42] Cool. Now he's feeling back healthy. I'm

[33:44] gonna ram ram up the weight on those.

[33:47] And so like having the ability to to

[33:49] twist the dials I think is like very

[33:51] very important and and in in absolutely

[33:54] every every level of modeling not just

[33:56] like you know futures or whatever but

[33:58] like in every level you need to have the

[34:00] ability to to layer in some subjectivity

[34:02] and just twist the dials a little bit.

[34:04] >> Yeah. I think um like an example that

[34:06] would come to mind for me when I was

[34:07] doing live props uh and I still do some

[34:10] live props, but let's say during NFL

[34:12] season, most of the time I'm just

[34:14] enjoying red zone on a Sunday and I'm

[34:15] not sitting at my desk and and live

[34:17] betting anymore. But if you would look

[34:19] at like specific teams run pass

[34:22] tendencies in the second half of games,

[34:25] if they're leading by a touchdown or

[34:27] leading by two touchdowns or trailing,

[34:29] you're going to have like some generic

[34:31] framework that you can work with. Uh

[34:33] sometimes these are built up over a long

[34:34] sample. If the coach has been there for

[34:36] a long time, they have their tendencies.

[34:38] But then there's certain situations

[34:39] where you just know ball and you're

[34:42] like, yeah, they t they typically run

[34:44] the ball a lot in the second half with a

[34:46] lead with a lead, but they're playing

[34:47] the best offense in the in the league.

[34:49] On the other side, that's not going to

[34:51] happen. I like Vrabel is going to change

[34:53] his tendency here or whatever. And

[34:56] that's where I feel like I've tried, you

[34:58] know, sort of picked up an edge over the

[35:00] years is just like here's what the stat

[35:02] here's where the model is going to be

[35:04] like here's where the sportsbook model

[35:05] is going to be built, right? If I was

[35:07] building the sportsbook model that's

[35:09] going to account for as many situations

[35:10] as possible, this is how I would build

[35:12] the framework, but where are the weak

[35:15] points in that? And I think um you know

[35:18] I I I like

[35:19] >> sometimes I just think what the hell is

[35:21] the trader doing? like some like the

[35:24] running back running back will fumble

[35:25] and like it just won't the price won't

[35:27] move for a little bit. It's so so

[35:29] obvious what's going to happen here. Um,

[35:32] you know, there's there's a lot of

[35:33] patterns and like I I really don't want

[35:34] to give away too many of these, but like

[35:36] the that is what the trader's job is

[35:39] meant to be is like you've got this

[35:41] you've got this underlying model and

[35:44] then the trader should be there to spin

[35:45] the dials and like move things in a way

[35:48] to deal with things. But what they end

[35:50] up doing is they just get so scared

[35:51] about ARBs. So they're just like, "Oh

[35:53] jeez, I got to close the ARB, close the

[35:54] ARB, close the ARB." There's like

[35:56] putting out all these fires. Um, and

[35:58] like it just means that like, you know,

[36:00] these things aren't designed in the

[36:02] right way. Like these traders aren't

[36:04] thinking about the right thing and then

[36:06] they just get rained on on the the only

[36:08] areas of value ad that they possibly

[36:10] could have. Like the model is going to

[36:12] do a good job in the base phase. you

[36:14] should be thinking about the the human

[36:16] does a great job of dealing with outlier

[36:19] edge cases.

[36:20] >> You know, I I'll say this is uh and

[36:22] again, I'm not a I'm not a much of a

[36:24] basketball better at all, but I've been

[36:26] live trading a lot of March Madness and

[36:28] especially in the first round games,

[36:30] there were some significant blowouts.

[36:32] And one of the first things I noticed,

[36:34] uh, Bet Stamp Pro has a a live odd

[36:36] screen that's in beta right now, and

[36:38] I've been I've been testing it out. But

[36:39] one of the things I notice is that in

[36:41] these games where one team is up 3540

[36:44] points, I would notice a much bigger

[36:46] spread across the market on these games.

[36:49] So like arbs to pinnacle everywhere, you

[36:53] know, versus if the game was tighter,

[36:56] it's a lot easier to price once you get

[36:57] into these situations where a team's

[36:59] leading by, you know, 40 points with six

[37:02] minutes to go in a game. Well, there's a

[37:04] lot it's a lot more challenging who's

[37:05] going to get those minutes at a college

[37:07] level and things of that nature. So, I

[37:09] think just generally it's a great like

[37:11] think about where the uncertainty can

[37:13] lie if you're a casual better. I see

[37:15] people betting into live markets where

[37:17] they like frankly they don't really have

[37:18] any hope at the time that they're

[37:20] betting into it. But if they just took a

[37:22] step back and they're like, where could

[37:23] where could there be friction points if

[37:25] someone was trying to price this? There

[37:27] there's all sorts you can find. Like I

[37:29] don't even follow basketball and I can

[37:31] find this stuff in in real time. So, I

[37:34] mean, I think there's a huge opportunity

[37:35] there for even just like a a casual

[37:37] better if they were just to apply

[37:39] themselves in some way.

[37:41] >> It's bullno paradise. I think Padiso uh

[37:44] Pads or Padiso on Twitter, he went on

[37:46] the risk takers podcast one time and he

[37:48] talked about how live is like like

[37:51] everyone has these like wet dreams about

[37:54] um like one-off scenarios. Do you

[37:56] remember the final game of the hockey

[37:58] season where uh one team needed to like

[38:00] win in regulation? um in order to to

[38:03] make the playoffs. And so like they

[38:05] would they were going to pull pull their

[38:07] goalie even if it was a tie or like

[38:09] something like that.

[38:10] >> It was a game involving Columbus. I

[38:11] think

[38:12] >> it was it was it was involving Columbus.

[38:14] But he's like, "Wow, everyone was so

[38:16] hyped about this. They were they were

[38:17] like, "Yeah, I'm going to bet this not

[38:19] to go to OT because like there's so it's

[38:21] so obvious that it's not going to go to

[38:22] OT."

[38:23] >> In live that happens all the time. You

[38:26] don't even have to bet on it before. You

[38:27] don't have to be like, oh, you know,

[38:29] there's a 30% chance that this is going

[38:31] to be tied going into the final minute.

[38:33] You just wait until it's tied and then

[38:35] you just get all of these spots. And so,

[38:37] like, if you think if you if you're a

[38:40] balloon and you think about spots, then

[38:42] just bet live like figure out exactly

[38:44] where where where it's going to break

[38:46] down and you can just like find these

[38:48] massive edges. But the problem is you

[38:50] have to find these massive edges before

[38:51] Pads finds them otherwise he's going to

[38:53] blast them.

[38:53] >> Well, it's competitive in the market for

[38:55] sure. And and this is why like I I'm

[38:57] live trading March Madness and I'm I'm

[39:00] thinking to myself like there's people

[39:01] releasing live plays on this stuff right

[39:03] now. I have about 3 to 5 seconds maximum

[39:07] where I can bet at this number and uh it

[39:10] is a extremely competitive market and

[39:12] and candidly sometimes you just find

[39:14] stuff and you you don't have time to bet

[39:16] it like you just between actually

[39:18] punching in the amount even clicking a

[39:19] button with your bet fill amount you

[39:22] just can't get it in in time. But I

[39:23] don't think that um people treat like a

[39:26] lot of variables in sports with enough

[39:28] granularity. So like home field

[39:31] advantage is just one in sports where

[39:33] you know every year it's like well home

[39:35] field is worth this in the NFL. It's

[39:37] like is it or is it maybe worth more in

[39:40] like a prime time game or a divisional

[39:42] game or for a certain team or whatever.

[39:45] And and there's just like these absolute

[39:47] rules of thumb that people built models

[39:50] off of. I'm like, how how can you not

[39:52] dig deeper into this?

[39:53] >> There are so many impacts like that. And

[39:55] that that's my catnip big time is um

[39:58] like homefield is kind of the perfect

[40:00] one. like we it always used to just be

[40:02] three points in the NFL and then people

[40:03] started to move off it and then and they

[40:05] applied a distribution around it and

[40:07] it's like cool you've now done that job

[40:09] with that and yet you're still going in

[40:12] and and provide like applying the same

[40:14] money line to spread conversion whether

[40:16] Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback or

[40:17] like I don't know some shitty backup. Um

[40:20] it's like there are so many spots here

[40:24] where I think that uh it's exploitable

[40:26] and so I just I want to see more people

[40:29] thinking about these problems and like

[40:30] being creative in the way that they

[40:31] approach them.

[40:32] >> Yeah. If you think of of everything that

[40:34] could go into a a a sporting event and

[40:38] like how you can refine pricing and and

[40:40] and get to like a true probability in

[40:43] real time. You know, one thing I always

[40:44] wrestled with in hockey was, well, you

[40:47] know, your goalie is not ever really

[40:49] confirmed at any point in the game, uh,

[40:52] leading up to the game. Even if the team

[40:53] says he's going to start, well, that

[40:55] doesn't mean it's 100% in any capacity.

[40:58] Like, do I continue to price my game as

[41:00] if it's 99% he starts and one the

[41:02] backup, I still do that to this day.

[41:05] even when I don't know, I might have a

[41:07] price in real time that's a a pure 5050

[41:10] and I'm showing an edge on the market

[41:12] and you know people would would be like

[41:15] a lot of people would just not bet it at

[41:16] that point because they're like well

[41:18] what about the 50% chance where you get

[41:19] screwed by the goalie but I think about

[41:21] it about what about the 50% chance where

[41:23] now I don't have to wait for the

[41:26] underdog alert and and and everybody

[41:29] rushing to bet it at the exact same

[41:30] time. So, I think stuff like that,

[41:32] there's really a lot more nuance than

[41:34] people realize. That's one of Kirk's big

[41:37] things is he always talks about like the

[41:38] asymmetric upside bet where if you bet

[41:40] something that's like six and a half or

[41:43] you're getting mixed minus six and a

[41:44] half and the worst that can happen is it

[41:46] closes - 6 but it could have easily

[41:47] closed - 12 or something like you kind

[41:50] of just got to get that in like I think

[41:52] a really and then the other the other

[41:54] one that I kind of want to get to is

[41:55] like hidden factors like you obviously

[41:58] know the story about Harella Bob where

[42:01] uh he figured out that bench direction

[42:03] mattered a massive amount in the NBA

[42:05] it's The effect size is absolutely

[42:07] gigantic and he made tens of millions

[42:10] perhaps even hundred million.

[42:12] >> Yeah. People say he made nine figures

[42:13] just knowing which way the the team was

[42:15] was going basically. Yeah.

[42:17] >> If if that exists people people like oh

[42:20] wow like that like he must have been

[42:23] amazing to come up with that edge or

[42:24] like wow that edge was so simple. Do you

[42:27] not think like that edge exists so what

[42:29] the hell else out there is there? It's

[42:31] like it's never like this game closed 12

[42:33] and like God said that it closed 12 and

[42:35] it's just like definitely 12. It's not

[42:38] 12. It's a distribution around 12. And

[42:40] so if you can like figure out which

[42:42] factors are more important and like you

[42:46] can be more granular like I I think it's

[42:50] like uh the midw me a little bit like

[42:53] casual people think these are

[42:55] deterministic.

[42:57] Um the midw thinks that there's a lot

[42:59] there's a lot of variance and like you

[43:00] need to think probabilistically which

[43:01] like that's definitely true. You need to

[43:03] like get to the to the level where you

[43:06] think probabilistically

[43:07] but go past that like you also there's a

[43:11] lot more granularity that you can dig

[43:12] into and things are probably a lot more

[43:14] deterministic than you actually think.

[43:16] Like a really good example of this is

[43:18] like in tennis like the goats just play

[43:21] way better on on breakpoint or high

[43:23] leverage points like like a a dumb

[43:26] person probably thought of that at the

[43:28] start and then the nerd was probably

[43:30] like no all points are uniformly

[43:31] distributed and then people like no

[43:34] actually like the guy just tries really

[43:35] freaking hard to get the ball when it's

[43:37] uh when it's break point. It's funny you

[43:39] mention you mentioned like a dumb guy

[43:41] probably thought of that because I've

[43:43] definitely been like dismissive of a lot

[43:45] of things over the years that maybe

[43:48] turned out to be true or I should have

[43:49] paid more attention to. You know, the

[43:51] one example I always give was um I don't

[43:55] even remember how many years ago it was

[43:56] now, but this the MLB season started and

[43:59] home runs were way up to to like over

[44:02] the first three or four days. And it's

[44:04] very easy to just dismiss that and be

[44:05] like, "Hey, the sample is really small

[44:07] on this. like we don't really know. But

[44:09] then, you know, you dive deeper into

[44:11] Statcast data and the balls coming off

[44:13] the bat, you know, harder. Pitching

[44:15] hasn't fundamentally changed and you're

[44:17] like, you know, maybe there's maybe

[44:18] there's they just changed the baseballs.

[44:21] Nobody said anything and the overs are

[44:23] going to intrinsically have value for

[44:25] the next little t amount of time until

[44:26] the market catches up. There's so many

[44:28] things over over the years that I

[44:31] probably have dismissed as not and some

[44:33] of them might have been nothing. don't

[44:36] like I'm not like saying that but there

[44:38] there's just little things here or there

[44:40] that you you just hear about over the

[44:42] years. It's like oh remember when that

[44:44] happened a couple years ago and we all

[44:45] took advantage for like one month. Oh

[44:47] those were the times those but they just

[44:49] continuously seem to happen in sports

[44:51] betting

[44:52] >> and that's where being a concluer is

[44:53] really really valuable. Like I I one of

[44:56] my favorite people and I think he he's

[44:58] got to be one of the best bers of all

[45:00] time is is is Matt David. like he always

[45:03] just he always just concludes stuff and

[45:06] like sometimes he's like, "Oh yeah, I

[45:07] watched the game for like half an hour.

[45:08] This guy can't block." And it's like,

[45:10] "Yeah, that's what the dumb guy on the

[45:11] couch would have said as well." But like

[45:13] you have this trained eye and then also

[45:15] you and the other thing is that um

[45:19] Sportsbook's products now have become so

[45:21] levered with SGPS that you can actually

[45:23] like attack this and attack it with

[45:25] leverage. Like before, if you thought

[45:28] that um the Patriots offensive line

[45:31] wasn't going to be able to block

[45:32] Seattle, you could bet the money line,

[45:34] you could bet the spread. Uh you might

[45:35] be able to bet like a small alternate

[45:37] line like in the offshore space, the

[45:38] alternate line might have gone up to 10

[45:40] and a half or whatever.

[45:41] >> But now you can like leave us some SGPs

[45:44] where like you can key in on that exact

[45:47] thing. And that's the thing that I

[45:48] really like that Judah Fort Gang does. Y

[45:51] >> um is think about game state. think

[45:53] about um it how these like individual

[45:57] factors are going to be so valuable and

[45:59] so like if you can do that in a way like

[46:03] just doing that is is is very very

[46:04] valuable if you can if you can conclude

[46:07] and you can be good at concluding so um

[46:09] yeah to me it's it's a great opportunity

[46:11] for ball knowledge I 100% just to add to

[46:14] that so I've learned a lot about betting

[46:15] SGPS from Judah had a really successful

[46:17] NFL season with it last year as well and

[46:20] um yeah that's exactly one of the

[46:22] reasons why is like blanket statements

[46:24] don't always apply across the league.

[46:26] Like, you know, sometimes you'll bet a

[46:28] team to to to cover an alternate spread,

[46:30] win by 14 a half. And a lot of times one

[46:34] of the layers I'll like to put into into

[46:36] that type of SGP is the opposing team's

[46:39] running back alt receptions over. But

[46:42] then there's times where certain teams

[46:44] get down and the quarterback doesn't

[46:46] target the running back. Specific

[46:47] quarterbacks in the league look

[46:49] elsewhere. Um, so it's very team

[46:51] dependent and you know, were you to

[46:53] apply that across every single team, you

[46:55] would consistently lose with certain

[46:57] teams where that just doesn't meet the

[46:59] criteria. Again, you know, it just it

[47:01] just stems from watching so much

[47:03] football. I'm not saying that everyone

[47:04] in the world has to to watch the sport

[47:06] at nauseium to to understand or get it,

[47:09] but there there are little things there.

[47:10] It's why I always take issue with people

[47:12] who are like, "Oh, you know, I never got

[47:14] anything about um from watching the

[47:16] game. You know, if anything, it was the

[47:18] complete opposite." I get that you can

[47:20] develop bad biases when you watch

[47:22] something or think something exists

[47:24] that's not there. But if you're right

[47:26] more often than not and that's proven

[47:28] through like your betting acumen, then I

[47:31] think it's probably good to to pick up

[47:32] on those things.

[47:34] >> 100%. And I think my favorite piece of

[47:36] content that you ever did was um and and

[47:39] it was only small was I think you gave

[47:41] out James Kirk to score a touchdown in a

[47:43] Buffalo Bills game because um because

[47:46] Josh Allen's thumb was like a little bit

[47:48] uh knocked uh nicked up and so uh his

[47:52] like carries got steamed down, his rush

[47:55] yards under got steamed down. Now you

[47:58] can go like and and this is where I

[47:59] think and I don't know whether you

[48:01] actually thinking about this but you you

[48:02] actually ended up arriving at the like

[48:04] the best account health play as well is

[48:07] like cool if you know that Josh Allen

[48:09] has like a sore thumb you can play

[48:12] carries under you can play rush yards

[48:14] under those have like a negative what I

[48:16] would I call a negative residual to your

[48:19] account. So like you have the EV of a

[48:21] bet and then you have the residual that

[48:23] applies to your account. Um, and so you

[48:28] have the like negative residual that is

[48:30] associated with betting like a prop

[48:31] under, but then you can go even further.

[48:34] You can be like, "Oh, what about Josh

[48:35] Allen not to score a touchdown?" You

[48:37] know, those with with prediction

[48:38] markets, those are now available, but

[48:40] like there's probably a lot of people in

[48:42] the queue trying to like take that flow.

[48:43] That's probably a good bet like weekly

[48:46] anyway. Then you go to like, okay, where

[48:48] could it where could that probability be

[48:50] redistributed? and it goes to uh James

[48:53] Cook to score a touchdown. You have a

[48:55] great bet and then you have a a bet that

[48:57] also looks so square. And so you're take

[49:00] you're like betting in the area that the

[49:03] book wants you to bet in. And like that

[49:05] is how you win. Like how you win big is

[49:08] is not just like figuring out who how

[49:10] you're going to win. You need to beat

[49:11] them in a way that they think that

[49:13] you're losing.

[49:14] >> Yeah. Well said. With that particular

[49:16] example, uh I probably did not think

[49:19] about that being a market that I target.

[49:21] But actually, the truth is I bet a lot

[49:24] of anytime touchdown scorers for

[49:26] football. It's uh it's kind of one of

[49:27] the staples of the pizza buffet on

[49:29] Sunday mornings cuz they did really well

[49:31] this year. and the the initial thought

[49:33] into modeling that out and actually

[49:35] spending. See, people don't really

[49:37] understand what goes into modeling that

[49:39] out and how like a very very small

[49:43] change can massively affect that price.

[49:46] like me adjusting someone's red zone

[49:49] usage because of some piece even a video

[49:53] clip I watched in practice of a team

[49:55] that was lined up with three tight ends

[49:57] at the goal line versus you know

[50:00] whatever the formation might be even

[50:02] adjusting the red zone usage by a small

[50:04] amount can drastically affect the

[50:07] touchdown price like there's there's all

[50:08] these inputs that go into it and uh I I

[50:12] become hyper obsessed with that during

[50:13] football season but anytime touchdown

[50:15] market shipper. Like I just figured I'm

[50:17] like I'm going to bet anytime touchdown

[50:19] scores yes exclusively. I don't bet nos

[50:22] because I feel like that's you know

[50:24] that's kind of a sharp thing to do. And

[50:26] I'm like this is a great market cuz I

[50:27] can find on Sunday morning 20 plus edges

[50:31] across the league. I'm betting on game

[50:34] day. I'm betting a market that looks

[50:36] like I'm just taking a shot. You know I

[50:38] I felt that that that was opportunity.

[50:41] >> Beautiful. And so like you're in an area

[50:43] where the small tweak of the dials like

[50:45] really really helps you. The attached

[50:47] vig is massive. You want you want big

[50:50] vig on uh the bets that you place. So

[50:52] they're going in the back end seeing uh

[50:55] Rob's place some some touchdown scorers

[50:57] like these are great for us. Uh because

[50:59] on the whole they are great. And so like

[51:02] you need to be swept along with the

[51:05] tide. You cannot just be like a standout

[51:07] person. You must continue to bet in the

[51:10] same manner as everybody else. And you

[51:12] must you like

[51:15] there is there's a feeding frenzy that

[51:18] goes on like the the book is a big whale

[51:21] and the and if all the krill go to one

[51:25] area and the whales eating most of that

[51:27] krill. If you're like a shark you can

[51:29] just go and eat like a big chunk of that

[51:31] krill, right?

[51:32] >> Whereas if you're a shark and you're

[51:33] just like kind of floating around like

[51:34] trying to find like a random bit of

[51:36] krill somewhere, then it's not going to

[51:38] work. Like use the book to your

[51:40] advantage. start almost like getting you

[51:42] accounts basically by attracting all

[51:44] this wreck action into one area and so

[51:48] just go where the wreck action is like

[51:49] go chase that wreck action and go figure

[51:51] out how to beat it.

[51:52] >> Such a uh Oceanania comment there with

[51:56] the example whales and sharks and krill.

[51:58] Not not the first the krill is what

[52:01] really got me. Um I want to talk a

[52:04] little bit at least about AI. Uh so I

[52:07] don't know what your technical

[52:08] background is at all. um whether or not

[52:10] you are a coder or or like what your

[52:12] math skill set is, but AI is a huge

[52:15] topic in the betting community right

[52:16] now. Uh for someone building betting

[52:18] models, how much has AI changed what's

[52:21] possible for you?

[52:23] >> Yeah, it's been huge. A total game

[52:24] changer. Like um my I'd say I'm barely

[52:28] technically literate. Like if you I

[52:30] could definitely build something in

[52:31] Excel. I could build something like

[52:34] really crappy in a pro in like any kind

[52:37] of programming language, but with AI, I

[52:39] can build something that's like actually

[52:40] pretty good. Uh, and so it's been it's

[52:43] been a total game changer. Use it all

[52:44] the time. Um, and yeah, it's it's just

[52:49] it's just like amazing. Like it fixes

[52:51] every problem that I can really think

[52:53] of. um whether it's a lack of

[52:55] understanding of a statistical

[52:56] phenomenon like that I could describe to

[52:58] it but I don't really know like the

[53:01] particulars or I don't really know how

[53:04] to build the assumptions perfectly then

[53:05] I just feed feed that straight to it um

[53:08] and and I just find that it's um yeah

[53:11] really really changed the game for me.

[53:12] >> Are you a voice notes guy like you I I I

[53:15] sit at my my wife's walking by my office

[53:17] every day she just hears me talking to

[53:19] myself. It's me like trying to express

[53:21] something to Claude that's in my head

[53:23] and going back and forth with the that's

[53:25] what it's become for me. I don't even

[53:26] have the the time to sit there and type

[53:28] out what I'm feeling or copy paste

[53:30] whatever. I'm I'm actually speaking to

[53:32] the AI these days.

[53:34] >> I don't do that but I'm a massive voice

[53:36] notes guy generally. Uh and so I was

[53:38] talking to Peanut Better about this

[53:39] actually. Uh, I go on the if I'm on the

[53:42] palaton in the morning, then I I grab my

[53:44] I spend half the time talking to the

[53:46] talking to the phone because like your

[53:48] brain is starting to like think of a lot

[53:50] of things when you're uh exercising. I

[53:53] find that's the it's by far the my most

[53:55] productive time and then I spend half

[53:57] the time just like talking to my phone

[53:58] because I've come up with some idea like

[54:00] something to do.

[54:01] >> Would you say that you use AI more for

[54:03] research or more for modeling purposes?

[54:06] >> Definitely more for modeling purposes.

[54:08] like the research um a lot of it is like

[54:13] I have some hunch and like doing the

[54:16] research is kind of easy to some extent

[54:19] >> and then like testing it is kind of easy

[54:22] like I I I do have an economics and

[54:24] finance degree like I do have a

[54:26] statistical background to do the testing

[54:28] um and so like that has never really

[54:30] been an issue but like actually writing

[54:31] the code uh for me has has been really

[54:34] big. All right, I'll I'll wrap the model

[54:36] conversation in a second here because I

[54:37] want to get your thoughts on the the

[54:38] landscape a little bit. Uh because

[54:40] prediction markets have emerged since

[54:41] the last time we talked. Uh but for

[54:44] someone out there who is uh listening

[54:46] and who wants to to start building

[54:48] models, but they don't have a quant

[54:50] background or anything like that, where

[54:52] do you think they should actually start?

[54:55] >> Yeah, I hate to plug the enemy, Rob, but

[54:57] uh but the risktakers podcast, I think

[54:59] episode 105 uh is the best is the best.

[55:02] I don't view it as an enemy, by the way.

[55:04] I actually I I like there's a lack of

[55:07] good content in the space nowadays. It's

[55:09] the reality of it. Um I found myself

[55:12] kind of deviating away from certain

[55:14] things. So, no, no harm taken. I've

[55:17] listened to many of the episodes and

[55:18] some of them are fantastic. Yeah,

[55:20] episode 105 over there, uh, they they

[55:23] talked about kind of effectively just

[55:24] building shitty models and like the

[55:26] cliffnotes are that you just need to get

[55:30] something as I talked about with that

[55:31] Kawhi Leonard example or like the AllNBA

[55:34] example. The main thing is like I could

[55:36] get to an output. You can always tweak

[55:39] the assumptions after you get to the

[55:40] output. You can check it against the

[55:41] market. You can figure out what you're

[55:43] what you're missing. You can twist the

[55:45] dials like as as much as you kind of

[55:47] want, but you just need to get to a

[55:49] number and then you need to iterate and

[55:50] you need to start start small and like

[55:53] just feed small questions into AI and

[55:55] you'll be able to figure it out. It's uh

[55:56] it's become a lot easier.

[55:58] >> All right. Uh prediction markets have

[56:00] exploded since the last time that you

[56:03] were here on circles off. Obviously poly

[56:05] market cali

[56:07] uh exchanges who tried to go sweep

[56:09] stakes who are now applying for CFTC

[56:12] license. Uh, no vague profit x. Uh,

[56:15] overall thoughts on prediction markets,

[56:17] good or bad for the ecosystem?

[56:20] >> Yeah, I think it's good. Um, I think

[56:22] they're like bad for society at large.

[56:24] Uh, I think they are um

[56:28] >> I should have I should have got Kirk

[56:29] Evans on here to debate you with maybe

[56:31] that'll be in our in our hammer debate

[56:33] series at some point.

[56:34] >> I wonder whether he actually disagrees

[56:36] with that. I'm not sure. Actually, no.

[56:38] Actually, I do think that they're good

[56:40] for society at large because what I

[56:41] think probably happens is it's just

[56:44] taking the people that bet offshore in

[56:46] Texas and California and makes them bet

[56:48] on Koshi, which is like better than

[56:51] betting offshore probably in terms of

[56:53] regulation at least slightly better. So

[56:55] I think decent and then I don't know

[56:58] like it just gives another it gives

[56:59] another out like uh there are a lot of

[57:02] there are probably a lot of uh

[57:04] externalities that we're uh should be

[57:07] concerned about like I think that

[57:09] DraftKings and FanDuel um dipping their

[57:12] toes into the water and I think they'll

[57:13] probably be pretty as long as there are

[57:17] some lawsuits that don't kind of stop

[57:19] this then I think they'll probably go

[57:21] pretty hard in this space and like that

[57:24] is not necessarily good. You're

[57:27] effectively testing what it would be

[57:29] like if they had to book everybody. So,

[57:32] like they're probably going to have to

[57:34] hire more internal um pricing me uh

[57:38] pricing ability and like internal

[57:40] trading ability in order to book

[57:43] everybody in California, Texas, uh or

[57:46] the unregulated states and that will

[57:48] have spillover effects into the online

[57:49] sports betting industry. What do you

[57:51] what do you think about that take? I I

[57:53] think it's really interesting. I mean,

[57:55] um I think with the prediction market

[57:57] stuff, the problem is is obviously the

[57:59] regulatory uncertainty right now, right?

[58:02] And nobody knows if they're going to

[58:04] exist in two years. Now, I strongly

[58:06] believe that they will regardless of of

[58:08] the outcome of the next election, but

[58:10] that's kind of an existential threat. So

[58:12] it's like how much do we want to put in

[58:14] that as and for me as a better how much

[58:16] do I want to put in that basket getting

[58:18] onboarded into different APIs and

[58:20] actually market making and like it it

[58:22] becomes a very complex problem to solve

[58:25] when you have so much uncertainty around

[58:27] it. Some people don't care. They'll

[58:28] they'll they're just like full steam

[58:30] ahead. I've maximized what I can do with

[58:32] sports books and I'm not at that level.

[58:34] I mean I can get as many accounts as I

[58:36] as I pretty much. Being public facing

[58:38] has its advantages for sure because

[58:40] people reach out to me on the side. Hey

[58:41] Rob, I've seen this, you know, so on and

[58:43] so forth. But yeah, I I listen, I think

[58:46] they're pretty cool. Honestly, I I

[58:50] unsponsored

[58:52] uh show today and um so I can say this,

[58:56] you know, freely. The way that my brain

[58:58] works is I think probabilistically on

[59:01] pretty much everything. Seeing numbers

[59:03] laid out in form of sense which is

[59:05] essentially percentages. It just really

[59:07] hits with me. It it I find the products

[59:10] appealing of like watching them trade in

[59:13] real time looking at the order books to

[59:15] see where there's like a wall where some

[59:18] you know it's all that stuff. I just

[59:20] find it really interesting. But will you

[59:23] know will the casuals ever slowly turn

[59:26] over there? That's where I'm not sure

[59:28] because you read all about Koshi really

[59:30] taking up, you know, um, really building

[59:34] up some momentum with the younger

[59:35] demographic. I could see the route that

[59:37] they're going with the Bryson

[59:38] sponsorships, Giannis and all that. Um,

[59:41] but I I truly wonder whether younger

[59:44] demographic is going to fully embrace

[59:46] that type of product at some point and I

[59:48] don't know.

[59:50] Yeah, I've got like I've got a lot of

[59:52] takes here, but I think a good one to go

[59:54] with is like my broad over overarching

[59:59] take and like I don't I'm not deep in

[60:02] the weeds and prediction markets and so

[60:04] like you should probably downweight this

[60:06] versus like my sports betting takes, but

[60:09] so I think that what's going to happen

[60:13] is DraftKings and FanDuel are going to

[60:15] enter and they're going to make maker

[60:17] fees really Yeah.

[60:19] >> To basically make it so that it's

[60:21] impossible to make on DraftKings and

[60:23] FanDuel. And so they're just going to

[60:25] turn into a sports book. And if that is

[60:28] allowed to happen, I think they're going

[60:30] to win. I think they're going to be able

[60:31] to beat Koshi and Poly Market. And so

[60:35] like I I just think and then like how in

[60:41] the tank how rigged can commission a

[60:43] sealer make seal make it to make it make

[60:47] the rules basically. So you can't just

[60:49] operate a sports book. Like could you

[60:51] could you make it that there has to be a

[60:54] certain gap between maker versus take

[60:57] like maker versus taker can only be so

[60:58] wide,

[60:59] >> right?

[61:00] >> Um and if that's the case, then you kind

[61:02] of can't make the make it just like a

[61:05] sports book. You have to effectively

[61:07] allow other people to be able to make on

[61:08] your platform. But that business isn't

[61:11] nearly as profitable. Like the thing

[61:13] that's profitable is taking all the rec

[61:15] flow yourself. like being the being the

[61:17] maker, taking it all yourself. And so

[61:20] like that would kind of de devalue

[61:22] couch. And then the other thing, the

[61:24] third way that this could kind of

[61:25] crumble is that why are California and

[61:29] Texas not just going to legalize if like

[61:32] if everyone's betting on Koshi and Poly

[61:35] Market and Novig or whatever, why would

[61:40] why would California and Texas and all

[61:43] the other unregulated states be like,

[61:45] "Okay, we can either have regulated

[61:47] sports betting in our state where we're

[61:50] getting no tax benefit or we can have

[61:53] regulated sports betting in our state

[61:55] where we're getting lots of tax benefit

[61:57] and we can you know provide some guard

[61:59] rails and all that sort of stuff. Um so

[62:01] to me like again I think people have

[62:04] said this a lot before like I'm arguing

[62:06] with a $22 billion valuation like I

[62:09] understand that like the market is

[62:11] against me here

[62:13] that $22 billion valuation can be

[62:16] justified in many other ways like it it

[62:18] has to become the everything app. I'm

[62:21] low on the value of sports betting on

[62:24] Koshi and Poly Market, but because of

[62:27] that and because of the valuation, I'm

[62:29] probably much higher on the valuation of

[62:31] like everything else. Like I think I

[62:33] think a lot of other stuff might get

[62:34] might be able to be be traded.

[62:37] >> Yeah, this this might have to be a

[62:38] separate podcast entirely because I can

[62:40] go on for there was so much you said

[62:42] there that I can pick up on. Um yeah,

[62:46] definitely the the valuations have

[62:47] gotten um you know

[62:51] I I don't want to say on hand because

[62:52] the value is what what the value is the

[62:54] value what people are willing to pay for

[62:56] it but from the outside looking in it's

[62:58] it's really hard to justify that and a

[63:00] lot of it is based off of potential and

[63:02] in this regulatory framework I mean that

[63:05] that is that is a hefty hefty valuation

[63:09] okay what if we just buy like break it

[63:11] down to like buy or sell okay buy or

[63:13] sell sports sports only is worth more

[63:17] than 10 billion to Koshi of that $22

[63:20] billion valuation like you know they're

[63:22] currently at what 75% or something

[63:23] sports.

[63:24] >> Yeah.

[63:24] >> So like so so I'm I'm taking it all the

[63:26] way down to 45%.

[63:28] >> Yes.

[63:28] >> Sports only is is worth higher or lower?

[63:31] >> Higher.

[63:33] >> Really?

[63:34] >> Yeah.

[63:34] >> You think that like the regulation is

[63:36] just

[63:36] >> right now

[63:36] >> it's not going to change?

[63:38] >> Oh that so okay forward looking. Um yeah

[63:41] yeah yeah. Um

[63:43] I don't I I'm not the truth is shipper

[63:45] I'm not qualified enough to speak on

[63:48] that. Like I I can their mind.

[63:51] >> Like I I'm sure I can give you an

[63:53] opinion, but it would be very uninformed

[63:55] on that specific question overall, but

[64:00] I'd still say it's probably higher,

[64:02] honestly. That would be my gut feeling.

[64:04] >> Yeah. No, fair enough. Fair enough.

[64:05] That's good. It's good to get an answer

[64:07] anyway.

[64:08] >> Could be a very wrong answer which will

[64:10] be used against me in a few years.

[64:11] Welcome.

[64:12] >> Welcome to the internet. Um, let's say

[64:15] you were still in your trading desk at

[64:17] Points Bet and the emergence of

[64:19] prediction markets had happened. Now, do

[64:21] you do you use them as a price discovery

[64:24] venue or is it still just like Pinnacle,

[64:26] Chris, whatever, you know, FanDuel for

[64:28] props, whatever it may be? Uh, cuz I

[64:30] mean some of these sports events do have

[64:33] like some pretty massive volume on them.

[64:36] >> Yeah. Um, Flop said he put in the Novig

[64:38] Slack one time like the picture of like

[64:40] the man holding up the earth and it was

[64:42] and he just captioned it like um

[64:45] pinnacle 5k limits on CBB holding up

[64:47] like the millions of dollars that are

[64:49] traded to Koshi and like everyone's just

[64:51] building like it's like okay we take

[64:53] this assumption and this assumption and

[64:56] like it's all just all contingent on

[64:58] like some pretty shitty underlinings.

[65:01] But like that's what the softbook model

[65:02] is too effectively like people can bet a

[65:05] lot more on college basketball, a lot

[65:06] more on college football uh through the

[65:09] soft books than they can on um the sharp

[65:12] books. And so like

[65:15] that was always a consideration and that

[65:17] was always something that I used to

[65:18] clash with like the higherups. They

[65:20] would always get a little bit annoyed or

[65:22] like they would disagree with me. I

[65:23] would always think that we could open

[65:24] the floodgates more like if I think

[65:26] there someone's wreck like I'm willing

[65:28] to take basically whatever from them and

[65:30] they'd be like well like your

[65:31] assumptions are just like not that firm

[65:33] here. I don't know how comfortable I am

[65:35] taking these taking these big bets. So

[65:38] um yeah like it's it's all kind of built

[65:41] it's all built upon some pretty rickety

[65:43] infrastructure.

[65:44] >> Yeah, totally. Um, just just thinking

[65:47] back I I'm processing the the last few

[65:51] questions and answers and

[65:53] I is there a world where prediction

[65:57] markets and traditional sports books

[66:00] coexist or do you think we're headed

[66:02] towards,

[66:04] you know, eventually everything is going

[66:06] to pivot to a prediction market

[66:07] infrastructure or eventually, you know,

[66:10] that is going to get completely shut

[66:12] down and we're going back to

[66:13] state-by-state regulation like or is or

[66:16] is there just some world where a decade

[66:18] from now, two decades from now, we have

[66:20] traditional prediction markets, CFTC

[66:22] regulated and we still have sports books

[66:24] operating at a regul uh state-by-state

[66:26] level.

[66:27] >> No, I think I mean I think it could

[66:29] exist. Um and it would actually end up a

[66:32] lot like getting to something that I've

[66:34] advocated before before where there's

[66:35] kind of like sharp sports betting and

[66:37] then there's Rex sports betting and like

[66:38] they and they operate under different um

[66:41] infrastructures. Alex Alex Kane has been

[66:43] big on this too. Like there's no way

[66:45] that like someone catering to sh like

[66:48] catering to sharps and like dealing big

[66:50] liquidity and like betting actual

[66:52] markets like money line spreads, they

[66:55] shouldn't be paying the same tax rate as

[66:59] people who are on a diff like doing a

[67:00] different product and so it might

[67:02] actually just end up arriving at at that

[67:04] area. But but prediction markets aren't

[67:07] worth anything in that in that case.

[67:09] like it's the the value to just taking

[67:12] sharp action and like clipping the

[67:14] ticket on a few fees here and there even

[67:16] if that action is really big. Um it's

[67:19] it's not worth very much.

[67:20] >> Yeah, I think I think at the end of the

[67:21] day it's obviously different products

[67:23] for different users, right? and wreck

[67:26] betterers want SGPS and they want boosts

[67:28] and they want you know a slick app and

[67:31] you know prediction markets are trying

[67:33] to solve at least the SGP problem in the

[67:35] early going here and uh I know we

[67:38] previously had Met Metaf on maybe over a

[67:40] year ago now where he was working in the

[67:42] back end at like SGP pricing engine and

[67:44] stuff like that um which could

[67:46] potentially be used in some capacities

[67:49] but I I just pro I feel I I have a

[67:52] product background so I always feel like

[67:54] product is so important, right? But for

[67:56] a casual or a wreck, like a lot of

[67:59] what's happening on prediction markets

[68:00] can feel very overwhelming with the way

[68:02] that and it's it might take a long time

[68:05] to get people to that level of education

[68:08] before they're willing to just scrap the

[68:11] traditional DraftKings FanDuel apps. And

[68:14] um you know I I think about that a lot

[68:16] because

[68:17] it

[68:19] you you you you have prediction markets

[68:21] who know that they're going to get their

[68:22] growth from a casual, right? Most of the

[68:25] sharps are going to find their way there

[68:26] regardless, right? That's just the

[68:28] nature of it. But it's like how do we

[68:29] attract that audience? I'm not sure

[68:32] they're close to figuring that out

[68:34] entirely just yet.

[68:36] >> You know who is DraftKings and FanDuel.

[68:39] >> Yeah.

[68:40] But then but then at some point they

[68:42] have to make the product worthy of

[68:45] sharps

[68:46] >> in the in the in the

[68:47] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And so like that I'm

[68:49] like a little bit concerned about like

[68:51] the fl the spillover effects to OSB.

[68:53] Like are their lines just going to get

[68:55] way sharper because they actually have

[68:56] to deal with sharps on the other side.

[68:58] But like I don't know. I don't know.

[69:00] There's like a lot of unknowns here. Um

[69:02] and every time I make a prediction on

[69:03] this [ __ ] I always get it wrong. So um

[69:05] we'll see. We'll see.

[69:06] >> Yeah. I'm I'm with you. Um, if you were

[69:11] talking to like a it's 2026, new better

[69:14] coming into market here, do you do you

[69:16] would you send them down the prediction

[69:18] machine prediction machine the PM's the

[69:21] PM's path? Like do do you think it's

[69:23] worth it for just an like a a new casual

[69:26] better to get involved in prediction

[69:27] markets yet or would you say stick to

[69:29] traditional sports books?

[69:31] >> I think it's so dependent on what the

[69:32] skill set is of each person. Um, I think

[69:38] ultimately

[69:40] like you're just going to have to end up

[69:42] originating and like whether that

[69:44] whether you end up originating and it

[69:46] ends up on um sports books or whether it

[69:49] ends up on prediction markets like I I

[69:50] don't really know, but like I think and

[69:53] I don't feel that confident in this

[69:55] take, but I I do think the value of top

[69:58] down stuff is just going to continue to

[70:00] dwindle a little bit and like people who

[70:02] are creative, people who are original um

[70:05] people who are yeah um forward thinking

[70:08] that they're going to be the winners in

[70:09] the end and I don't really know how

[70:10] that's going to work out.

[70:12] >> You know, every time I think that which

[70:14] I've thought for a long time as well, I

[70:16] was always like, "Oh, it's I'm I'm so

[70:18] glad I can build a model bottom up and

[70:20] like create my own numbers on things and

[70:22] not have to be reliant on, you know, a

[70:24] couple sports books to have a price for

[70:26] me to be able to set a price." But then

[70:28] every year there's just so many new

[70:30] markets that get posted where I'm like,

[70:32] you know what? Like there's there's

[70:34] always even even when this market gets

[70:37] tightened up at XYZ book, they just get

[70:39] exposed in some other market. It's it

[70:41] almost just feels like it's this cycle

[70:43] where I keep saying to myself, well, at

[70:46] some point these books are going to

[70:47] figure it out. And they may in like

[70:50] little small gaps here or there, but

[70:52] there there's just it's almost like too

[70:53] much for them to handle. I think they

[70:56] figure out like the lowest common

[70:57] denominator, but like like cool, you've

[71:00] dealt with Odds Jam, now you have to

[71:02] deal with Bookie Beats. Yeah.

[71:04] >> Um dealing dealing with um an Odds Jam

[71:09] user versus dealing with Bookie Beats

[71:10] user is like a lot more difficult.

[71:14] >> How how so for the for for someone who

[71:16] might not get reference? Bookie Beats

[71:18] was like originally this this Discord um

[71:21] where they kind of just created a better

[71:23] version of Odds Jam way faster um and

[71:26] kind of just way more bolt-on things and

[71:28] like the original top down people were

[71:31] button clickers. Um but then there were

[71:35] some people that thought about the

[71:36] problem a lot bigger. Uh people like

[71:40] Padiso.

[71:41] And when you hear that guy speak and you

[71:44] hear all of the thought that he's put

[71:46] into a lot of stuff like you know those

[71:48] SGPs that we were kind of talking about

[71:50] how you know we've tried to be creative

[71:52] like come up with all this sort of stuff

[71:54] like Pad's probably is able to come up

[71:56] with a way to automate uh the way to

[71:58] come up with that sort of stuff with

[72:00] some price comparison and so like cool

[72:02] my creative brain has just been great

[72:04] but like he's figured out how to code it

[72:06] and now um now you got to deal with

[72:08] that. So, uh, yeah, there are people

[72:10] there are kind of levels to this stuff

[72:11] and and it, um, yeah, I think the lowest

[72:13] common denominator does get swall

[72:16] swallen up um, swallowed up, sorry. Uh,

[72:19] but the there are people above that that

[72:22] are are craving it.

[72:23] >> Yep, completely agree. Um, let's talk a

[72:26] little bit about Twitter. Uh, your bio

[72:29] is, uh, retweet equals [ __ ] Like I

[72:31] said off the top, I've been there

[72:33] before. Uh, a few others associated with

[72:35] the hammer have before. Um, you run your

[72:38] Twitter like a troll account essentially

[72:40] for the most part. Do you have an actual

[72:42] goal behind that or is that just like

[72:44] something that you is pure amusement for

[72:46] you?

[72:47] >> No, I think I think like getting these

[72:48] questions is really good. It makes you

[72:50] like forces you to be introspective. Um,

[72:52] so I think some of it I I I broke it

[72:54] down. It's like signaling and

[72:56] entertainment. And I think signaling

[72:58] some of it is like cool I want to show

[73:00] that like this guy's an idiot. Um and or

[73:04] this like take not always this guy cuz

[73:06] like smart people can say stupid [ __ ] I

[73:08] say stupid [ __ ] quite often. Y

[73:10] >> um

[73:11] >> sorry not I wasn't saying that to you

[73:13] shipper. I also say stupid [ __ ] I I was

[73:15] acknowledging that you may say stupid

[73:17] [ __ ] but I do as well. Yeah.

[73:19] >> Yeah. Yeah. For sure. And then but then

[73:21] there's also like a selfish part to it,

[73:23] right? Like you're trying to show that

[73:24] you are like smart. You want people to

[73:27] like by saying that someone else is

[73:28] stupid, you're effectively trying to say

[73:30] that you are smart. So like it's I'm not

[73:32] some not some um um benevolent retweeter

[73:37] of like telling people that they're

[73:39] stupid. But then and then the other part

[73:41] is like entertainment. Like sometimes

[73:44] it's trying to get a laugh out of like

[73:45] my friends. Sometimes it's trying to get

[73:48] a laugh out of the public and then like

[73:49] a lot of the time it's just making

[73:50] myself laugh. My favorite thing by far

[73:53] is when people get retweeted and then

[73:56] they get so mad and then they reply to

[73:59] themselves. Um because if you if you

[74:01] retweet somebody, it's not as though

[74:03] like you've just replied to them just

[74:05] saying idiot. Uh and then they have

[74:07] something to build off of. Like it's

[74:08] very obvious. If you just retweet them,

[74:11] then they have to reply to themsel. And

[74:14] like if somebody doesn't follow me but

[74:15] follows them just they look like a

[74:18] psychopath. like they've just they've

[74:19] just gotten angry at their own tweet and

[74:21] it's so when that happens it's so good.

[74:23] Like I just absolutely die. So like I

[74:26] would say it's probably like like a very

[74:30] self-interested to do it but it does

[74:32] bring some joy to other people and then

[74:33] like the person that gets targeted like

[74:36] I'm sorry but I've just had to make fun

[74:37] of you for my own entertainment.

[74:39] >> Yeah. Listen, I mean at one point I

[74:41] didn't appreciate the trolling. Now I do

[74:43] appreciate the trolling. I guess time

[74:45] time heals all. I think that gambling

[74:47] Twitter needs people who call out bad

[74:50] takes. I think if that doesn't exist,

[74:52] then your alternative is basically an

[74:55] echo chamber where losing betters

[74:57] convince each other that they're winning

[74:59] or that they're doing things the right

[75:01] way over and over. Like if you ever get

[75:03] into some of these communities of people

[75:05] online, they're convinced that they've

[75:08] they figured out betting where, you

[75:10] know, if you take any sharp and you

[75:12] expose them to that community, you'd be

[75:13] like their head would blow up, right?

[75:15] And I think that's important. I think

[75:18] the issue is when, and I've learned this

[75:20] myself, I try not to cross the line into

[75:22] like um personal attacks on people who

[75:25] are genuinely trying to learn. I think

[75:27] that's where I've made some mistakes in

[75:29] the p past. I love to mock bad analysis.

[75:32] I will always do that. I think it

[75:35] actually serves as educational in

[75:37] addition to, yes, maybe an ego boost for

[75:39] me as well, which I'm not going to lie.

[75:41] I think it's when it's like mocking

[75:42] beginners who don't actually know any

[75:44] better. That's where it probably crosses

[75:47] the line, but that's also just a tough

[75:48] line to it's a tough line to navigate as

[75:52] well. Um, for sure. I think you had a

[75:55] you when you're talking about the echo

[75:57] chamber, you had a question in the

[75:58] rundown about um what I would kind of

[76:00] force each sports betting uh podcast to

[76:03] kind of change about and and how they

[76:05] present their analysis. Like I' I'd like

[76:07] people to argue more. I want people to

[76:09] disagree more. Even if you don't even if

[76:12] you don't totally believe something.

[76:14] Like, can you just steal man it a little

[76:16] bit? Like, I don't want to hear people

[76:19] sit around and agree a lot. And like the

[76:22] worst Golden Pants is really bad for

[76:24] this. He's gotten a lot better. And like

[76:26] I I actually like Golden Pants. Like

[76:28] he's he comes across as a really nice

[76:30] guy. Um but just stop agreeing with

[76:32] every single thing that the guest states

[76:34] and like I know that you don't agree

[76:36] with like some of the stuff. Can you

[76:37] just push back a little bit? Like um

[76:40] what are what's the most what what's the

[76:42] most um uh the highest rated uh sort of

[76:46] debate show going around? First take. Um

[76:49] Max Calaman did a podcast with Bill

[76:52] Simmons where he talked about like do

[76:55] you ever just

[76:58] um argue something that you don't ever

[77:00] believe? And he's like no like we don't

[77:02] do that. Like that's disingenuous and I

[77:04] don't think that people should get to

[77:05] first take levels. But he's like, I can

[77:08] get to an area where I can argue like

[77:10] some portion of it. And so I would

[77:12] really like if people just got to got to

[77:16] an area where they could disagree a

[77:17] little bit. It would just lead to far

[77:18] more educational content and far better

[77:21] uh discussion, far better conversations.

[77:23] >> Yeah, that's really interesting. I I I

[77:25] also don't love the hottake stuff. We

[77:27] have our own, you know, sports betting

[77:29] version, I guess, of of First Take with

[77:31] Circle Back where we're just talking

[77:32] industry topics. And um I think it's

[77:35] challenging because a lot of sharp bers

[77:39] I'm not saying that they never disagree.

[77:41] There's certainly disagreements in the

[77:42] space, but we do often see eye to eye on

[77:45] a lot of things. So when we disagree, it

[77:49] I think just my perspective, I've seen

[77:52] those be a lot more heated and more

[77:54] forceful in the past because we

[77:57] generally don't know how to once you've

[77:59] reached a level of sports betting where

[78:00] you're successful. You're you now have

[78:03] the ego and you like you know what

[78:05] you're doing and someone who's going to

[78:07] tell you otherwise, no matter how

[78:08] successful they are, you're just you're

[78:10] not going to have it. And I find that a

[78:12] lot of the the confrontation between

[78:15] sharp betterers never really ends well

[78:17] because I think people are just like

[78:19] they really refuse to see the other side

[78:21] of it. Someone had this tweet one time

[78:23] they were like why do all these sharp

[78:26] sports bers have such big egos and I

[78:28] think I replied like I win money by

[78:32] being right. Yeah.

[78:33] >> What do you expect? Like I I I I win

[78:36] money by predicting the future better

[78:38] than other people. like what what do you

[78:41] think is gonna happen? Of course, I

[78:42] think I'm right all the time.

[78:44] >> Yeah. I get people ask me all the time

[78:46] like, "Did you the local Toronto sports

[78:49] radio or whatever?" They're like, "Oh,

[78:50] did you hear this segment or did you

[78:51] hear that?" I'm like, "No, why would I

[78:54] listen to this person? Why?" Like, and

[78:56] and and I realize how that comes across,

[78:58] right? And the narcissism that's

[79:00] involved in that. But at the end of the

[79:02] day, the only people I like, like the

[79:04] only people's opinions that I can, even

[79:05] a sport that I bet on, NFL, I do really

[79:07] well betting the NFL.

[79:10] I trust other people's opinions that I

[79:12] know do really well betting the NFL. I

[79:15] really, for the most part, don't trust

[79:16] anyone else's opinion on the game. Like,

[79:18] I'm not going to tune in to ESPN

[79:20] because, you know, Teddy Brussi is going

[79:22] to tell me the Patriots are going to

[79:23] have a great year. I know he played in

[79:25] the league or whatever. I don't care.

[79:26] Like to me the level of excellence is

[79:29] can you beat major markets in that

[79:31] sport. That's the way I view it. I mean

[79:33] and once it's really really hard to do

[79:36] it's really really hard to originate the

[79:38] NBA sides and beat them. If someone can

[79:42] do that and they want to tell me what

[79:44] their opinion is on an NBA game or a

[79:45] team or I will listen. If it's going to

[79:48] be someone who's hired for whatever, I

[79:50] won't even say a salary, but you know, a

[79:53] salary that's nowhere close to what

[79:54] we're making betting that's gonna, you

[79:56] know, inform me on what's happening in

[79:58] the NBA. I don't want to hear it. And

[80:00] that's it's jaded, but that's the way my

[80:02] perspective has shifted uh as I got

[80:04] older. Shipper.

[80:06] >> Yep. Totally agree. Uh but yeah, let's

[80:08] get some more let's get some more uh

[80:10] arguments on circle back. That would be

[80:11] that would be much appreciated.

[80:13] >> Hammer debate series coming soon. We we

[80:16] have to make that. I don't even know

[80:17] what people would be debating, but I

[80:19] think there's enough in

[80:20] >> doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.

[80:21] >> It's true. Well, you know what? We did

[80:23] one of those with Jeff Benson and uh JJ

[80:27] Gruden many years ago.

[80:28] >> Yeah, but like but JJ Gruden's an idiot.

[80:30] Like and like he's not he's like way

[80:33] stupider than Zilbert. Zilbert is way

[80:35] smarter than JJ Gruden. And so like I

[80:37] want I don't want J I don't want Zilbert

[80:39] excluded because you think he's stupid.

[80:41] I want him in there. Uh and I I think I

[80:44] don't think he's as dumb as everyone

[80:45] thinks he is. Well, I listen, I I'm all

[80:47] for that. I actually think that that

[80:48] would foster some good conversations. Be

[80:52] it has to be moderated properly, for

[80:54] sure. Uh I you know, listen, I one of

[80:56] the some of our biggest videos we've

[80:59] ever done here have been reaction

[81:01] videos. It's a very easy way to game the

[81:03] YouTube algorithm. It's why I do them.

[81:05] It's like watch another piece of

[81:06] content, give a reaction, you get your

[81:08] audience to follow it, then that aud the

[81:11] the other person's audience sees it as

[81:13] well. One of them was Kyle Kerms the

[81:15] sauce. Um, which I did a reaction to and

[81:19] uh I don't take back anything I said

[81:21] about that video in particular, but I've

[81:23] now gotten to know Kyle um and he has a

[81:27] very different perspective on certain

[81:28] things that honestly I would never even

[81:31] think about as a as a perspective. And

[81:33] now I find myself sometimes changing my

[81:36] opinion opinion to the way a more casual

[81:39] better might look at things because I'm

[81:41] like I'm so far off the deep end now

[81:43] that maybe I I just can't actually see

[81:46] through these walls. Um and I think that

[81:49] if we were to do sort of those types of

[81:51] debates where people feel very strongly

[81:53] about an opinion on something in sports

[81:54] betting that they're willing to back up

[81:56] and argue against something someone

[81:58] else, I think that could make for some

[81:59] interesting content.

[82:00] >> Yeah, I think it's worth a shot anyway.

[82:02] would be uh I don't know we need more

[82:04] it's unfortunately we just need way more

[82:07] gambling content it's there's there's

[82:08] not that much out there so just more and

[82:10] more and more

[82:11] >> uh outside of risk taker risk takers pod

[82:14] um with golden pants any one creating

[82:17] content out there that you really

[82:18] respect or you find yourself listening

[82:19] to

[82:20] >> yeah so there's people who like I

[82:22] respect the way that they bet and it's

[82:24] like quite obvious that they win like

[82:26] golden pants I wouldn't say that like I

[82:27] love him personally in terms of like the

[82:31] content that he produces again. I've had

[82:33] like my quibbles with like just the lack

[82:35] of disagreement. I think he's gotten way

[82:37] better and like I think he's like pretty

[82:39] good now. Um there's some stuff that you

[82:41] do that's like a little bit annoying

[82:42] from a content perspective, but you're

[82:44] obviously like a winning better

[82:46] obviously like a guy who knows what he's

[82:48] talking about.

[82:48] >> I I need I need examples. I I can take

[82:50] it. I need examples.

[82:51] >> No, I think I think the Kyle Kyle Karns

[82:53] things is like is like a perfect

[82:54] example. Like you just you're friends

[82:57] with him now. Um so so you're like take

[83:00] it your opinion. I chat with him almost

[83:02] every day honestly.

[83:03] >> And it's the same and it's the same with

[83:04] me like your your like opinion of my

[83:07] opinions have changed because we we've

[83:09] chatted before now now we've become like

[83:11] internet acquaintances uh if not

[83:13] internet friends. I would consider you

[83:15] an internet friend Rob. Um, but like

[83:18] obviously that your your opinion of that

[83:20] person as like a friend and this and

[83:22] this isn't even I don't even know that

[83:24] this is like irrational, but you like

[83:26] let that um I think you let that like

[83:28] impact the way that you um analyze their

[83:31] opinions.

[83:32] >> You know, look, I can give you an

[83:33] example of like how something's changed

[83:35] my thinking. Um we didn't include this

[83:37] on a circle back we recorded this week,

[83:39] but um there was a a tweet by this DKDFS

[83:43] character who I love. He's but you know

[83:46] people were asking him like you know why

[83:48] are you not posting as many picks

[83:49] anymore or this and that. It was and and

[83:52] his basic thing was like listen you know

[83:54] I bet some of these things at different

[83:56] numbers if I post them now I don't want

[83:59] to be giving out bad advice and you know

[84:01] people are going to tail the picks and I

[84:04] have felt this personally I've

[84:06] experienced this in in content. You

[84:08] know, I try to structure Sunday morning

[84:12] uh my NFL show now as forward-looking,

[84:14] right? I really try to refrain from, oh,

[84:17] I bet this earlier in the week, unless I

[84:18] actually gave it out on our airwaves,

[84:20] right? I I don't want people because

[84:22] what used to happen is I'd get to the

[84:24] end of the day, be Sunday night, and

[84:26] someone would DM me on Twitter and

[84:27] they're like, "Oh, down bad. You know,

[84:29] thank thankfully you gave me the Cowboys

[84:31] and you know, I I got it back." And I'd

[84:34] respond. I'd be like, "I didn't give out

[84:35] the Cowboys." And they'd be like, "Oh, I

[84:37] know you said you bet them like

[84:38] earlier." I'm like, "Yeah, but like I

[84:40] bet them minus3, you know, - 115. It's -

[84:44] 3 and a half - 115. It's not the same."

[84:46] They're like, "I just want to be on the

[84:47] same side as you, right?" And I've

[84:49] talked to to Kyle Kerms about this and

[84:51] he's like, "You know what, Rob, the

[84:53] reality is, you know, the these people

[84:56] are going to make bad bets regardless if

[84:59] they don't come to you and and and tail

[85:01] that play even at a worse number.

[85:03] they're going to find someone else

[85:05] that's gonna might even be worse than

[85:08] chasing your steam. So, at that point,

[85:10] you might as well just give it out with

[85:12] the caveat of like, I wouldn't bet this

[85:14] anymore, but here's what I'm on. And now

[85:16] you've you've done your due diligence

[85:18] saying like, and I I wrestle with that,

[85:21] but it's actually a really valuable

[85:22] point that I I've never really thought

[85:24] of before. I always think about the this

[85:26] lens of of plus EV don't want to give

[85:28] out a bet that's no longer good but

[85:30] there is value for the user or the

[85:33] viewer they they have they want to know

[85:36] what I'm on so like why not give it to

[85:38] them with the caveat and that like kind

[85:40] of changed my thinking a little bit.

[85:42] >> No, I think that's fair. I think that's

[85:43] fair. Um so trying to like get to the

[85:46] answer of your question of like who else

[85:47] I think is good. Uh I think uh I think

[85:51] Flop and Henry's show is very good. Um

[85:54] it's like quite again these are going to

[85:56] be like tend towards the nerdier side

[85:58] given that um I want to hear like smart

[86:01] people talking about sports betting.

[86:02] >> So that's predict predictive programming

[86:04] on Novig.

[86:06] >> Mhm. Those those guys are good. I think

[86:08] uh Kirk is very good uh in the way that

[86:12] he he's actually willing to push back on

[86:14] stuff. Peanut better. I ranked a tier

[86:17] below Kirk in my official uh podcast

[86:20] host rankings, but he's now climbed into

[86:22] the Kirk tier. And that's because

[86:24] before, and and I'm going to take take

[86:27] credit for this uh is that he um always

[86:30] just used to use like cringe oneliners.

[86:32] Like you're smarter than Matt, man. You

[86:34] don't have to just use these like cringe

[86:36] oneliners over and over again. Andy now

[86:38] has like way more offmarket opinions. So

[86:40] I think like he's climbed into the Kirk

[86:42] tier, but the best one of all is sports

[86:44] projections. uh like that guy's just a

[86:46] [ __ ] killer. Every time they're

[86:48] talking about some pro uh like topic

[86:51] where like he hasn't really thought

[86:52] about the problem before, I feel like

[86:54] I've got the right answer. I'm like,

[86:56] "Yeah, like this is going to be sick. I

[86:58] know something that they don't know."

[86:59] And then he kind of like thinks about

[87:00] the topic for 2 minutes and then just

[87:02] like delivers this eloquent explanation

[87:04] of the topic in a way that I couldn't

[87:07] deliver. It's like this guy's thought

[87:08] about this for 2 minutes and it's like

[87:10] my expertise. Like he's so good.

[87:12] >> I I totally agree on that front. You

[87:14] could tell that the brain is just wired

[87:15] differently as well. Um, yeah. I mean,

[87:19] honestly, for me, sometimes when I hear

[87:22] his his responses, like it humbles you a

[87:24] little bit, you know? Yeah, for sure.

[87:26] And I've messaged him before being like,

[87:27] "Can you just please shut the [ __ ] up?"

[87:29] Sometimes like you're just giving away

[87:30] way too much. Uh, and then like some

[87:32] other guys like John Reer is obviously

[87:34] very good. He's in a different category.

[87:35] He's a great storyteller. Um, and and

[87:38] asks really good questions. Uh, an under

[87:40] the radar one. Brad Allen uh from Isles

[87:43] and Cryche which is an industry podcast.

[87:45] Uh zero latency it's called. Uh he

[87:48] probably asked the best questions of

[87:50] anybody that I know. He's like able to

[87:51] get really good answers out of some

[87:53] really really really high level people.

[87:55] Like they'll have a lot of seuite people

[87:57] that go it's kind of like it's a pod

[87:59] that's like built for uh seuite gambling

[88:03] industry people. And so I think like

[88:05] he's really valuable. And then there's

[88:07] the one who reluctantly I'm going to

[88:08] have to give some credit to is Kesh. Uh

[88:11] I don't really know what it is about

[88:12] him, but he like has just enough

[88:14] knowledge that he's like he's able to

[88:17] speak like quite well on on actual

[88:19] gambling topics rather than just be

[88:21] like, "Haha, look at me. I'm like the

[88:22] village idiot."

[88:23] >> And then like he also never talks about

[88:26] stuff that he doesn't know about. It

[88:28] doesn't go outside of his wheelhouse.

[88:30] >> And then like he makes some jokes that

[88:32] are quite clever rather than just like

[88:33] the crude jokes. So I think like I think

[88:36] Kesh is is is like a really really good

[88:38] content person. Is there is there anyone

[88:40] that I you think I missed?

[88:41] >> No, I like that. I I I you know I I hate

[88:44] giving him credit but but the thing with

[88:46] Kesh is and kind of what we've always

[88:48] been going for with the hammer is

[88:49] authenticity no matter what. What and

[88:53] Kesh knows what his strengths are and he

[88:55] knows where he's weak overall. And to

[88:57] your point he won't just make an opinion

[88:59] for for making that opinion. He'll be

[89:01] like, I don't know what the [ __ ] I'm

[89:02] talking about when it comes to this, so

[89:04] I'm like going to stay. But when he

[89:06] really is into something, he leans into

[89:07] it. Like he he expresses it. So I I

[89:09] think that's really important. Like

[89:11] different strokes for different folks,

[89:13] but part of the reason that Kesh is at

[89:14] the hammer and peanut better as well is

[89:17] uh the delivery, man. They're just so

[89:19] like they and having form takes and they

[89:22] have a way of delivering it in a way

[89:24] that's entertaining as well. Like it

[89:25] just

[89:27] I think that's good. He's just good on

[89:29] the mic. like he's he's just got the got

[89:31] the good pipes. Um same way like like

[89:33] Drew Dinsk I think like some of his

[89:36] content I don't love but he's got great

[89:37] lettuce, great pipes, delivery is

[89:40] perfect. So um yeah, pro pro Drew Drew

[89:43] Dick as well.

[89:44] >> 100%. Drew is a staple here on Hammer

[89:46] Daily with uh Jason noon Eastern time

[89:49] weekdays. All right uh shipper uh before

[89:51] we let you go um I mean I haven't done

[89:55] an interview in a while in a long time.

[89:56] I don't timelines are are weird, but uh

[90:00] Calvin and Hobo. Was that in 2026,

[90:02] Jacob?

[90:03] >> I No, it was pretty

[90:05] >> 25. I was down in Mexico when I listened

[90:07] to it. Yeah, good.

[90:08] >> There you go. You're the first of uh of

[90:10] this year. Uh I don't even remember if

[90:12] we had a plus EV or minus EV the first

[90:15] time you were on.

[90:16] >> I did, but I think I gave out like not

[90:19] not handing over or not collecting your

[90:21] credit card from the bar and just like

[90:23] accepting the auto cruy. I got a few got

[90:25] a bit of push back on that one, but uh I

[90:27] I'll save you the spiel. Um and I'm

[90:30] going to give give something that's

[90:31] that's plus EV uh in terms of my life.

[90:34] So I thought about this a little bit and

[90:36] I think starting a fight on Twitter just

[90:39] before you're about to go on a flight is

[90:41] like really really good. um you you're

[90:44] going to be bored and like Starling will

[90:47] solve this in a little bit, but

[90:49] currently like inflight Wi-Fi sucks too

[90:51] bad to do anything other than tweet or

[90:53] like reply to messages. So just like

[90:55] tweet something super controversial

[90:56] before you start a flight. What do you

[90:58] reckon about that?

[90:59] >> So

[91:00] I'm going to say I hate this. Okay, my

[91:04] my preference on a flight is to sleep as

[91:06] much as possible. So you know know that

[91:08] going in. before I go on a flight,

[91:10] probably about 45 minutes before, I'm

[91:11] going to pop a gravel. I'm going to try

[91:13] to sleep as much as I I possibly can. I

[91:16] just don't like the no matter what,

[91:19] whether I'm sitting business class,

[91:20] whatever, I don't find airlines

[91:22] comfortable personally. So, I would

[91:26] suffer so much stress like waking up and

[91:30] having to like respond back and forth to

[91:32] some. So, it doesn't suit my style. I

[91:34] get it. you're trying to occupy your

[91:36] time. But for me, no, I can't I can't I

[91:39] couldn't do that.

[91:41] >> All right. And then uh and then the

[91:43] minor CV, uh we we talked about like AI

[91:46] being a mirror. Kirk has used that term

[91:48] that like if you're really clever and

[91:50] you like give good prompts, um it's

[91:52] going to give you really good stuff

[91:54] back. Um obviously the the thing that

[91:56] I'm not very clever at is medicine. And

[91:59] so like I've found that like trying I

[92:02] people people know not to Google their

[92:04] symptoms but like I'm an idiot and so I

[92:06] tried using chatbt for some of my

[92:07] symptoms or cord for some of my symptoms

[92:09] and uh and that was just stupid. Um it

[92:12] was it was just so so so dumb. And like

[92:14] it's obviously giving you the same level

[92:16] of conviction back uh as what the stuff

[92:19] in sports betting is. You're like oh

[92:20] yeah I'm smart like I can I can filter

[92:23] this down. Um but you just run into the

[92:25] biggest area of Dunning Krueger. make

[92:27] these like these um uh conclusions and

[92:30] uh don't be a concluer on your on your

[92:33] medicals. That's not good.

[92:34] >> I uh I I like that one as well. Um I've

[92:38] been down the same path. So, you know,

[92:40] I'm with you on that one. Ship one for

[92:42] two. You're batting 500. It's great.

[92:43] Great in Major League Baseball. That's

[92:45] for sure.

[92:45] >> That's good.

[92:46] >> That's for sure. Uh I'll give you the

[92:47] closing question, which we haven't done

[92:48] in a long time as well. I know you got

[92:50] to wrap up here shortly in just a

[92:52] second, but uh if you could go back five

[92:54] years and talk to a previous version of

[92:56] yourself, what advice would you give to

[92:58] your former self?

[93:00] >> Uh I think it's something that I've like

[93:03] actually implemented recently that I

[93:04] wish I did before is uh betting a few

[93:08] futures and betting a bunch of other

[93:10] stuff. I've plumbed all of my sims into

[93:12] my tracking sheet and it's like gives

[93:16] you the sickest sweat possible. It's

[93:18] like it's kind of like um seeing your

[93:20] portfolio update on a prediction market,

[93:22] but like I've built it in a way that's

[93:24] not that good. And so it's like to me

[93:26] it's like pulling this slot machine

[93:27] lever and like 3 minutes later it gives

[93:30] me an update, but then it's like not

[93:32] actually finished. It's like being in a

[93:33] bonus round. You're like the it's

[93:35] spinning, it's spitting out some coins.

[93:36] You're like, "Come on, spit out a few

[93:37] more coins." And then like randomly like

[93:39] 7 minutes later like the gears will turn

[93:42] and it'll just spit out some more money.

[93:43] And so like like build your stuff really

[93:46] like building my stuff really [ __ ] and

[93:47] just like having it spit out um a bunch

[93:49] of coins is really really good. And so

[93:51] that that's good as winning better. But

[93:52] if you're losing better that won't be

[93:53] that fun because it'll it'll just tell

[93:55] you how how broke you are.

[93:56] >> You would be it would be the have the

[93:57] exact opposite effect at that point.

[93:59] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. To see like more money

[94:01] like flush more money flush more money.

[94:03] So, the delayed gratification of just

[94:05] like seeing it turn and be like, "Oh,

[94:07] yes. I've made all this money and then

[94:09] you think it's done and it's got like

[94:10] one last death rattle and just spits out

[94:12] a few more coins." It's uh it's good.

[94:14] All right, that's going to do it for

[94:16] this week's circles off. Make sure you

[94:17] follow Shipper on Twitter, ship the

[94:20] Justice. If you did enjoy this episode,

[94:23] take two seconds, smash that like button

[94:24] down below. Goes a long way. If you want

[94:26] to leave us a comment, that's great as

[94:28] well. maybe some guests you want to see

[94:29] on in the future as we're going back to

[94:30] an interview format here over the

[94:32] summer. If you're listening in podcast

[94:34] form, please rate and review five stars.

[94:37] Till next time, peace out, everyone.