The Biggest Signs You Might Actually Be A Losing Sports Bettor | Presented by Kal

Circles Off

2026-02-21

4 Warning Signs You Are Not a Winning Better (Tested)

It’s a difficult, almost painful, moment when you have to confront the data: are you actually throwing away money or are you just on a bad run? That feeling of doubt creeps in after losses mount, turning what was fun into a source of anxiety for your bankroll. We're cutting through the noise today to give you clear, data-backed benchmarks so you stop guessing and start judging your performance accurately. I promise you'll walk away knowing exactly how to evaluate your progress as a winning better.

We all start with hope, but unfortunately, hope doesn't pay the bills or move up closing lines. The difference between hobbyists and successful bettors comes down to rigorous, unemotional analysis. We aren't saying you should quit entirely based on one bad night. Instead, we're establishing realistic sample sizes and performance metrics that indicate a fundamental flaw in your approach. If you’re serious about getting profitable, you need objective truth, not gut feelings.

This guide will focus heavily on objective metrics like Closing Line Value and sample size requirements. We'll discuss which statistical indicators matter most early on, and when you absolutely must make a significant strategic change if you want to become a winning better.

Here's What We'll Cover

The crucial difference between early results and reliable statistical indicators
Why your sample size dictates whether your results mean anything
How to use Closing Line Value to gauge true profitability
The importance of being able to articulate your betting edge

Sample Size Matters More Than You Think

The first major mistake people make is drawing conclusions from insufficient data. If you've placed 50 bets and you're currently down, you haven't learned much about your long-term potential as a winning better. Fifty bets is tiny. It absolutely won't tell you anything meaningful about your Return on Investment or units won.

However, 50 bets can tell you one thing: how the market reacts to your bets right now. Do the lines immediately move against you? That’s a signal to pay attention to. But for true performance indicators like ROI, you need much more data volume.

Think about it this way: if you only throw 50 darts and miss the board half the time, you might assume you're just terrible. But if you throw 500 darts and only miss 5 percent of the time, the overall pattern is much clearer. The larger the sample, the more indicative it is of your actual skill level. If you're looking at 500 bets versus 50, the 500-bet sample almost always tells a truer story of your performance trajectory.

If you've been betting for years—many, many years—and you're still losing, that's the biggest red flag. It means you are executing a strategy that is fundamentally flawed. You have to change something significant because that volume of failure over time proves your process isn't working.

Using X ROI and Closing Line Value as Your Guiding Light

When we talk about determining if we are a winning better, we must look past simple win-loss records or raw ROI, especially early on. We need to look at why we are winning or losing. This is where Expected Return on Investment, or X ROI, and Closing Line Value, or CLV, come into play.

To clarify, X ROI generally compares the price you got versus where the market settled—often referencing a consensus number or a closing line. If you took odds of 2.00 and the market closed at 1.95, your X ROI should reflect favorably on getting that better number.

CLV is arguably the best early indicator we have. Why? Because it cuts through short-term variance. If you are consistently getting numbers that are better than where the market ultimately settles, you are finding value. If you are consistently hitting numbers that are stagnant or, worse, moving against you, you simply won't be profitable long term.

Here’s the tradeoff: A losing bettor who is ahead on raw ROI after 50 bets might seem like a success. But if their CLV is poor, they were just lucky with variance. Conversely, a person with a slightly negative X ROI after 500 bets might actually have the right process, just bad luck on the outcomes so far. We want the process that pays long term. The market tends to be smarter than any individual, so beating it is usually the goal.

How Many Bets Before You Know If You Can Be a Winning Better?

If we consider originators—people finding the initial valuable line—the signal is quicker. For a given strategy, if you’ve placed 50 to 100 bets and your expected return is already significantly negative, like negative 5 percent, you are essentially just taking the opening line without any subsequent market confirmation. That means you aren't getting the best available number, and you need to stop and reassess.

If your X ROI is slightly negative, maybe negative 1 or 1.5 percent, over 50 bets, that’s much better. It suggests you might be on to something genuine, but you need more volume to confirm.

But let’s be clear about time investment versus profit. If you are spending 20 hours a week grinding and the result is net-zero or negative, that’s a time management problem as much as a betting problem. It's not necessarily that you *can't* win, but that the time commitment isn't currently worth the output. You can always pivot from being an originator to being a line shopper or sniper, changing the type of work you do to maybe find a more accessible edge.

When you think about the required sample size, consider the stakes. If you lose $100 over 50 bets, that’s different than losing $5,000 over 50 bets. The risk is higher, the decision to stop or pivot should come faster.

Explaining Your Edge: The Litmus Test of Profitability

Here is a practical test I rely on: If you cannot clearly and concisely explain to an intelligent third party exactly *why* your method produces profit, then you don't actually have an edge. You just have a habit or a hunch.

I'm not telling you to publish your proprietary numbers to the internet. But internally, you must be able to articulate the market inefficiency you believe you are exploiting. Is it speed? Is it knowledge of obscure player news? Is it advanced modeling?

If your self-described edge is simply, "I dedicate three hours a day to watching games and researching," that is not an edge. That's effort, and effort is expected in any competitive market. The market you are betting into contains other people who are also putting in time and research. Your edge must be something that gives you a repeatable advantage over *them* at the moment you place the wager.

If you can't define the mechanics of your expected success, you are essentially gambling blindly, hoping the next 50 bets turn your luck around. That is not the path to becoming a winning better.

Common Questions About Becoming a Winning Better

Can I Really Never Win At Betting?

In my experience, probably not. I genuinely don't think someone exists who, if they change their approach dramatically enough, couldn't find a small way to win legitimately. The issue isn't inherent inability. The issue is usually performing actions that guarantee a loss over time, like chasing bad lines or betting without a defined process. Adjusting your strategy is almost always possible.

What Should I Do If My X ROI is Turning Negative?

If your X ROI shows you are consistently getting worse lines than the closing market average, you should step back immediately—especially if you have 100 or more bets logged. This indicates you aren't seeing the market correctly as it forms. Review your process: Are you waiting too long? Are you betting on too many non-value lines just to get action? This is a crucial time to re-evaluate your entire system.

Is Closing Line Value the Only Thing That Matters?

No, but it’s the most important early indicator for validating your predictions. CLV is valuable because it’s predictive in aggregate. However, you must pair it with your actual realized ROI and unit performance. CLV tells you the quality of your *decision*. Actual ROI tells you what happened *after* the decision was made. You need both to confirm you are a legitimate winning better.

How Does Sample Size Affect My Decision to Quit?

The relationship is reciprocal. Smaller samples (like 50 bets) demand quicker scrutiny of CLV trends. Larger samples (500+ bets) give more weight to realized ROI. If you have 500 bets and your ROI is strongly negative, you quit that strategy for sure. If you only have 50 bets and your ROI is -15 percent, you don't quit the whole activity, but you definitely pause that specific strategy and try line shopping instead.

Your Next Steps

Judging your betting performance shouldn't feel like a guessing game based on how you feel after the last game finishes. You need objective guardrails. The two most important indicators we discussed are knowing your sample size limitations and rigorously tracking Closing Line Value. If you’ve been betting for a long time without success, it proves your current methods are failing, and change is mandatory.

Don't let uncertainty paralyze you. Take the last 100 bets you recorded, calculate your average CLV, and compare it to your actual ROI. If the gap is massive and favoring the house, you know exactly where the issue lies. Stop trying to prove the current system works and start testing one adjustment this week, or shift entirely to a sniping strategy until you can clearly articulate an edge.

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Episode Transcript

[00:00] At what point should someone accept that

[00:03] they are not a winning better?

[00:06] It's a great question.

[00:09] >> Here we go.

[00:11] I think it's tough because obviously it

[00:13] kind of depends on what actually the

[00:16] person is and and how, you know, not to

[00:20] to be mean, but like how kind of bright

[00:22] they are.

[00:23] >> Yep. But because like I can kind of you

[00:26] can always scale back what type of

[00:29] betting you're doing, right? So like if

[00:31] you're, you know, 500 bets in to

[00:35] originating and your X ROI is in the red

[00:39] and your ROI is in the red. Yeah, you

[00:42] should at the very least step back. I

[00:45] think like for a given strategy, if

[00:47] you're if you think you're going to win,

[00:49] if you have 50 bets and clearly are not

[00:52] beating the close or like if your XRO is

[00:56] maybe negative 1% negative one and a

[00:58] half% then you probably are on to

[01:00] something. But if it's just, you know,

[01:02] negative 5%, you're just essentially

[01:05] betting the best line on market. But it

[01:09] never moves with you. 50 to 100 bets. I

[01:11] would say you step back and take a look

[01:13] at what you're doing. But at the same

[01:15] time, that is, you know, even if you're

[01:18] just not a good originator, you can just

[01:20] go back and try, you know, being more of

[01:24] a line shopper trying to snipe blind.

[01:27] So, I don't know if there's really ever

[01:28] a point where you should just be like, I

[01:31] cannot I am just not going to win

[01:33] betting. But also obviously if it's just

[01:35] taking up so much time and it's not

[01:38] worth it, that's kind of a different

[01:40] question. But I think at the easiest

[01:42] level of gambling, you generally most

[01:45] people could figure out some way to win

[01:47] a little bit if that's like really the

[01:49] goal, right?

[01:50] >> But obviously life factors play in a lot

[01:52] as well.

[01:52] >> Yeah. So like I don't think that there's

[01:54] such thing as someone who can never win.

[01:56] I agree with you. But there might be

[01:57] stuff that people are doing where if

[01:59] they continue doing that they are not

[02:01] going to win. Uh I think First and

[02:04] foremost, sample size is very important,

[02:08] right? If you place 50 bets, that's

[02:11] really not going to tell you anything.

[02:13] >> Well, I think 50 bets tells you a lot on

[02:16] how the market reacts to you.

[02:18] >> Sure.

[02:19] >> Sure.

[02:19] >> It won't. 50 bets tells you nothing in

[02:21] terms of ROI.

[02:22] >> Sure. Like if I pulled a 50 bet sample

[02:23] of any bets you placed over time, I

[02:26] could glean some things probably by

[02:28] looking at the closing line value on

[02:29] that. But overall, the larger the

[02:32] sample, the more indicative it's going

[02:35] to be of your performance, right? So, if

[02:37] you go through, you know, 50 bets versus

[02:41] 500, those are going to tell you very,

[02:43] very different things. The 500 sample in

[02:47] 99.9% of cases is going to be a better

[02:50] factor than 50. The only time that it

[02:53] wouldn't be is if that 500 stretched

[02:55] maybe like 20 years or something like

[02:57] that. You know what I'm getting at? So,

[02:58] I think sample size is very important.

[03:00] People run into that a lot. If you've

[03:02] been gambling for many, many years and

[03:04] you're not winning, you're you're doing

[03:07] something that is wrong and you're going

[03:10] to have to change that. But generally

[03:13] speaking, I know that there's debates on

[03:15] closing line value and depending on the

[03:17] markets, it's still a very good

[03:19] indicator in most markets of where

[03:21] you're at right now. So just next to

[03:25] your actual ROI or your units or your

[03:27] win loss or whatever you're tracking,

[03:29] you should also be tracking whether or

[03:30] not you're beating the market and by how

[03:32] much. For sure. And I'm such a CLV

[03:35] believer and truther, not only because I

[03:38] think it's a really good indicator,

[03:41] but also because like you said, sample

[03:43] size is so important, but we're not

[03:45] talking about, you know, it we're not

[03:48] talking about 500 bets and 50 bets as if

[03:51] that's the same thing, right? If you bet

[03:53] 500 bets and you're a losing bet and it

[03:55] took you 500 to find out, you lose a lot

[03:58] more money than if you bet 50 bets and

[04:00] you find out you're uh a losing bet and

[04:03] you'll have way more time to adjust

[04:05] after 50 bets. So that's why CLV is such

[04:07] a good tool for trying to understand if

[04:09] you're a good bet. And I think people

[04:12] conflate things of is CLV perfect versus

[04:15] is it valuable. So, in pretty much any

[04:18] market, unless you think you have a

[04:21] really specific niche edge that no one

[04:24] else knows about, fine. Maybe it won't

[04:27] be perfect. Your X ROI, and just to

[04:30] clarify here, X ROI would be where your

[04:33] bet closed versus the let's say whatever

[04:37] number you would want, the pin number or

[04:39] like a mix of the numbers of the market

[04:42] verse the number you got. So, you know,

[04:45] if you played uh 2.0 and the market

[04:48] closed at it was 55%, your X ROI would

[04:51] be whatever that would be like plus a

[04:53] few uh what is that? 5%. No, I don't

[04:56] know. I don't know how to calculate that

[04:57] off the top of my head, but that's a

[04:59] general idea. Y

[05:00] >> So, you can get

[05:03] if you bet 50 times, unless it's so

[05:06] niche, even if you're a prop bet

[05:09] or betting uh straits, totals, whatever,

[05:12] fine. Maybe it won't be perfectly

[05:14] reflective, but it will go in your favor

[05:17] if you're going to win to some degree.

[05:19] Maybe your XR is a small negative, but

[05:22] the line will move. You're not going to

[05:24] be a winning better if every time you

[05:26] bet the line stays stagnant or goes

[05:27] against you. You're just not going to

[05:29] win that way. So even though I agree

[05:31] closing line value isn't perfect

[05:33] especially but for this question it is

[05:37] such a good indicator and really what

[05:39] should be your guiding light because of

[05:42] how much quicker it'll be because even

[05:43] 500 bets you to me there would be

[05:47] debatably I would need to see the math

[05:49] on it more uncertainty of your ROI after

[05:53] 500 bets verse your CLV after 50 bets

[05:56] like 50 bets is a lot for if you're

[05:59] going to

[06:00] the uh just one practical thing I'll say

[06:02] and then we'll move on to question

[06:03] number two is um I also think that you

[06:06] know if you have an edge in sports

[06:09] betting you should be able to explain to

[06:11] other people what that edge is and I'm

[06:13] not saying actually publicize it to the

[06:15] world like that's not I'm saying give

[06:16] away your edge but if you can't actually

[06:19] explain what your edge is then you don't

[06:22] have one and if your edge is you know I

[06:25] spend three hours a day researching it's

[06:27] probably not an edge overall. So, I

[06:30] think that's just like where people kind

[06:33] of go wrong is like they think that

[06:35] they're handicapping stuff a lot of

[06:37] times and you know, you're you're in a

[06:41] competitive market in whatever you're

[06:42] betting. You got to be able to explain

[06:44] why what you're doing is going to be

[06:46] better than other people in market at

[06:48] the time that you're betting it is what