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[00:37] It's that time of year. We have the

[00:39] worst betting trends you can follow for

[00:42] Super Bowl Sunday. We're also talking

[00:44] about betting on the coin toss in 2026.

[00:48] People still doing that. We're also

[00:49] going to talk about Bill Bichc getting

[00:51] snubbed from the Pro Football Hall of

[00:53] Fame and so much more right here on

[00:56] Circle Back right here in the circles of

[00:58] channel which is part of the Hammerbag

[00:59] network and presented by Cal. This is

[01:01] the show where we cover the latest and

[01:03] greatest news that comes from gambling

[01:05] Twitter and sometimes a little bit of

[01:07] Twitter as a whole. We're doing it here

[01:09] with this Friday crew. I'm your host

[01:11] here in Circleback. My name is Jacob

[01:13] Gmena. I'm a creator and producer for

[01:15] the Hammer Bag Network. Down in the

[01:16] bottom left we have Mike aka Mr. Peanut

[01:19] better on Twitter. Koshi donator in the

[01:21] bio, but he is a professional sports

[01:23] better. Down in the bottom right corner

[01:24] of the screen, we have Joey Kesh,

[01:27] co-host on the Hit the Books channel,

[01:28] which is the Hammers NCAA football,

[01:30] college football content division. And

[01:32] up in the top right corner of the

[01:34] screen, we have China at China Maniac,

[01:36] Pro Sports Better, and host of the

[01:38] Gambling Chronicles podcast and New

[01:40] England Patriots fan. How you doing? You

[01:42] just told us pre-show you're going to

[01:44] the Super Bowl this year.

[01:46] >> Yeah, excited. uh first Super Bowl. I've

[01:49] missed the last 10, you know, and we've

[01:52] been shut out for a while here, so you

[01:54] know, I better get in before um the time

[01:56] goes past me, you know.

[01:58] >> Absolutely. And uh I'm sure the tickets

[02:01] ran you quite a bit, but you know, you

[02:03] you only have so many chances as a New

[02:05] England Patriots fan, let alone Boston

[02:07] sports in general, you only have so many

[02:09] chances to get to a big game like this.

[02:11] So, I guess you got to take them when

[02:13] you have the opportunity to do so.

[02:14] >> That's right. once once in a lifetime.

[02:17] >> Glad you're going to be able to

[02:18] experience that before uh before maybe

[02:21] maybe you don't have any more chances to

[02:22] do so. But we're going to get into the

[02:24] show today. We're going to start off

[02:25] with the betting trends that you see on

[02:28] the Super Bowl on a year to your basis.

[02:31] Things like this. We have Jay Cuda who

[02:33] said who posted this one about Drake

[02:36] May. No starting quarterback with a last

[02:38] name less than five letters long has won

[02:41] a Super Bowl. Starting QBs whose first

[02:44] and last name and with the same letter

[02:45] are 0 and6 in Super Bowl since the AFC

[02:48] was formed in 1970. Of course, Drake May

[02:51] applies to that as well. And starting

[02:53] quarterbacks with the initials DM are 0

[02:56] and2 in the Super Bowl because Dan

[02:58] Marino and Donovan McNab both lost. Now,

[03:01] as funny as this is, I will give Jay

[03:03] some credit. He said that these are

[03:05] meaningless, but not before somebody had

[03:07] to ask about Nick Fos. Nick Fos won a

[03:10] Super Bowl. Um, even though Nick Fos's

[03:12] name is five letters long, which

[03:13] therefore doesn't fit the first

[03:15] criteria. But again, he did say,

[03:17] "Luckily, these are meaningless stats

[03:19] anyway, so it doesn't matter." But how

[03:20] about ones like this? Sal bets, the king

[03:23] of betting trends. When we talk about

[03:25] goats in the space, we throw it out a

[03:27] lot. But when it comes to betting trends

[03:29] and nonsense associated with it, I I

[03:31] think Saletts really does fit that

[03:33] profile. I says, "I don't know if you

[03:34] know this, but over $20 billion will be

[03:37] wagered on the Super Bowl this year, but

[03:39] most people are focused on the wrong

[03:41] plays. Here are 10 picks you need to

[03:42] know for the Super Bowl." He proceeds to

[03:44] list 10 plays like this. He gives out a

[03:47] bet with no odds and provides a very

[03:49] basic assessment of the bet that

[03:51] everyone is aware of and is already

[03:53] factored into the price, such as Hunter

[03:55] Henry over 0.5 touchdown. He's been the

[03:58] Patriots most reliable red zone option.

[04:00] his 22 red zone targets lead the team

[04:02] and ranked fifth among all players. Now

[04:04] he faces the Seahawks without fifth most

[04:06] catches the tight ends this season.

[04:08] Again, stuff everyone has access to and

[04:11] no price associated with the bet. Minus

[04:14] 1,000. Probably wouldn't take that on

[04:17] Hunter Henry over 0.5 touchdowns. Then

[04:20] we have people like this Jeremy exposes

[04:22] Vegas, which I I don't even really

[04:23] understand what this is trying to say.

[04:25] Uh, M. So, Miami, Rams, Broncos, Pacers,

[04:30] 49ers, Texans. The underdog well dries

[04:34] up. Confidence has to be drained before

[04:36] the real trap is set. The Patriots sit

[04:38] as Super Bowl underdogs and showcase the

[04:40] line for the Super Bowl. I I guess this

[04:43] is motivation to pick the Seahawks, but

[04:45] I but I really don't quite understand

[04:46] it. A and finally, Rob mentioned

[04:49] basically how these Super Bowl trends

[04:51] can be meaningless on a year-to-year

[04:52] basis. But BTT Sports says 99% of these

[04:56] are not worth considering, but the Super

[04:57] Bowl is not an average game. Not

[05:00] engagement farming team to score last

[05:02] wins wins game 20 years in a row before

[05:05] finally losing last year. At my numbers

[05:07] for it, it this was about a one in 5,000

[05:10] outcome. Variance or is there something

[05:13] to it? Uh let's go to you China first.

[05:16] Um, how do we feel about these Super

[05:18] Bowl trends on a year-to-year basis?

[05:20] What's your take on what we saw here?

[05:21] >> Yeah, this is just I mean, all these

[05:23] trends, it's just a bunch of trash. I

[05:26] mean, the only trends that are really

[05:28] important when it comes to Super Bowl

[05:30] trends is what has happened in the

[05:32] current season, the best trends are the

[05:34] the past performance trends that have

[05:36] happened recently where you can kind of

[05:39] take a piece of a puzzle, put it

[05:40] together, and figure out what is right

[05:42] and what is wrong. And like even when

[05:44] you do that, you still have to find out

[05:47] which one of these is going to hold

[05:48] value and which ones do not. So, you

[05:51] know, you just got to figure out what

[05:52] has happened, how often it's happened.

[05:54] Stay away from the over trends, stay

[05:56] away from the yes trends, bet the nos,

[05:58] bet the unders, and you can't do worse

[06:01] than break even on this game.

[06:03] >> Understood. Let's go to Mike. Uh, you

[06:06] really you really like this one here.

[06:08] Um, the these team to score last wins

[06:11] hit 20 years in a row this tweet. uh

[06:13] anything you want to elaborate on?

[06:15] >> So he puts it at one in uh is it 5,000

[06:18] there outcome probability of this? This

[06:20] is a like a phenomenon known uh as like

[06:23] it's a small world problem. So when you

[06:26] run into someone from you know say you

[06:28] go down to Mexico have a vacation you

[06:30] run into someone from your hometown and

[06:32] you go you know what are the odds that I

[06:34] ran into this person. Well the odds that

[06:37] you ran into someone from your hometown

[06:39] are relatively small. But it's not just

[06:41] the odds of someone you ran in from your

[06:44] hometown. It's someone you went to

[06:45] college with. It's someone that's your

[06:46] wife's friend. It's someone that's

[06:48] there's actually, you know, the

[06:49] probability that you're looking at is

[06:51] maybe it's one in 5,000 that this prop

[06:53] hit specifically during the last 20

[06:55] Super Bowls. But it's what's the

[06:57] probability that one of these random

[06:59] props hits in the 20 Super Bowls before

[07:01] is actually quite high, especially when

[07:03] you start to make it so that it's any uh

[07:06] different number of years. you can kind

[07:08] of make it there's basically infinite

[07:10] number of combinations of possibilities

[07:12] that you can use as far as props. So

[07:14] that's why these misleading you know

[07:15] this the probability of this occurring

[07:18] is only one in 5,000. It's similar to

[07:20] when you see you know the one day of the

[07:22] year that is John F. Kennedy's birthday

[07:24] and Abraham Lincoln sign somebody into

[07:26] office and all these things. It's

[07:29] actually they're pu uh presenting it as

[07:31] the probability is so low of this

[07:33] outcome happening but there's actually a

[07:35] vast number of outcomes that you could

[07:37] put in there. So that's the confusing

[07:38] part when you're thinking about any of

[07:40] these trends. There is something to the

[07:43] Super Bowl behaving differently than

[07:45] other games in the sense that the

[07:48] halftime's longer things are a little

[07:50] bit different. the, you know, the nerves

[07:51] factor isn't, I would say, would kind of

[07:53] dismiss that some, but there are

[07:55] instances where you see, you know, late

[07:57] in games, uh, like a golfer who's up

[08:00] late in a match is more likely to miss a

[08:01] putt. So, those things are real, but you

[08:04] have to start and think, why would this

[08:05] exist in this game that it doesn't in

[08:07] others? And if you're going to have that

[08:09] effect, you need to price it in

[08:10] appropriately. Think what is the

[08:12] probability that this is different than

[08:14] another game? you know, both look at

[08:17] historical data, see how it's behaved

[08:18] differently, and most importantly, you

[08:20] need to have a reason of why you think,

[08:23] okay, something in the Super Bowl is

[08:24] making this different. You know, there

[08:26] was the second half Super Bowl is uh I

[08:30] think it's lower scoring or higher

[08:31] scoring because of the longer halftime.

[08:33] There was that theory that could be

[08:35] true, but it also there's a decent

[08:37] chance it's noise and you're just

[08:38] filtering through a million things. So,

[08:40] as always, it's complicated. It's not

[08:42] entirely clear how much of this in these

[08:44] small data problems is, you know, being

[08:47] priced in, how much of it you have found

[08:49] something unique. Uh, in general, I

[08:51] would say treat it like a normal game.

[08:53] Maybe look for a couple things around

[08:54] the edges and bet things that it's

[08:57] already, you know, you think maybe it

[08:59] could have extra value to it. Uh, but

[09:01] there was value there already.

[09:03] >> Over to you, Kenishh. Um, how has this

[09:05] sort of phenomena developed over the

[09:08] years and any thoughts from you on these

[09:10] betting trends? I mean, this reminds me

[09:12] of the uh the old, you know, what used

[09:15] to be week, you know, week 17 or week 18

[09:19] now where like now 3 weeks in advance,

[09:22] people are like, here's the incentives

[09:24] that people are about and you know, old

[09:26] S was S was on those before things. So

[09:30] now he's, you know, pivoting to Super

[09:32] Bowl, not pivoting, he's probably been

[09:33] doing this forever, but uh maybe just

[09:35] doesn't get as much red like where now

[09:37] we're going to do Super Bowl trends. And

[09:40] for whatever reason, this is like the I

[09:44] don't know the betting percentages crack

[09:46] of like Super Bowl trend. stuff gets

[09:48] he's like built a empire off this of

[09:51] just uh we're going to do here you know

[09:53] you list 10 trends in a thread and you

[09:56] know you get a thousand sheep that are

[09:57] like oh s you're the greatest I would

[10:00] never would have thought of that um so

[10:02] uh yeah but I would say the vast

[10:04] majority worthless but if people keep

[10:08] clicking it you're going to keep seeing

[10:11] it uh so you I mean and sales good for

[10:14] that and we've really hit this new era

[10:16] of Twitter where like just engagement

[10:19] farming is being rewarded more than it's

[10:22] ever been and we've seen like a new

[10:24] Twitter uh algorithm has come out and

[10:26] and th this sort of tweet is exactly

[10:29] what is going to help people like Salvad

[10:32] even further with that. But it's just

[10:33] such like misinformation to to put out

[10:36] these these numbers that you know

[10:38] sometimes these numbers aren't even

[10:40] aren't even available. There's no price

[10:42] attached to it. So like, okay, like

[10:44] sure, I'll play it, but like up to what

[10:46] number? Um, it it's it's just doing a a

[10:49] large disservice, I think, to the

[10:51] community posting stuff like that. So,

[10:53] um, yes, some of this stuff can matter,

[10:56] but a lot of time these sorts of trends

[10:57] don't matter. And I didn't really

[10:59] feature any examples, but like people

[11:01] will go off betting trends of like the

[11:02] last 20 Super Bowls. What the hell does

[11:04] a game, even like last year, what does a

[11:07] game between two teams who aren't even

[11:10] involved in this game have to do with

[11:13] what's going on here? Like for the most

[11:15] part, relatively nothing. I'm sure

[11:17] there's going to be stuff like, okay,

[11:18] the halftime is longer and that matters,

[11:20] but if it's like you can't look at a

[11:23] Chiefs Eagles game and take that as

[11:25] information that will benefit you for a

[11:27] game between the Seahawks and the

[11:28] Patriots, I mean, even Chiefs Eagles

[11:31] game from a few years ago, there may not

[11:32] even be a ton of information you get

[11:34] from that to a Chiefs Eagles game this

[11:36] year. So, largely uh these trends can be

[11:38] ignored. Go ahead, Mike. I do I think

[11:40] it's interesting though sometimes they

[11:42] do behave like okay good example is the

[11:45] over two and a half passes under two and

[11:47] a half passes prop that is hit at a very

[11:50] high rate in the Super Bowl compared to

[11:52] a normal game. Is there a chance that in

[11:55] the Super Bowl you're more likely as a

[11:56] coach to play a different kind of you

[11:59] know trick play that you think hey I

[12:01] have this play I'm going to save it

[12:02] until we need it to end of the season

[12:04] you're more likely to use it. I do think

[12:06] that there's a chance some of this, you

[12:08] know, could behave differently. The

[12:10] thing is is one PE if it exists, people

[12:12] are probably going to overreact to it,

[12:14] especially if it's small sample. And

[12:16] two, you really have to actually look at

[12:18] the thing that's happening and see like

[12:20] is there a possible reason why this

[12:22] could be different. So like a pass like

[12:25] like I said for the passes, it could be

[12:26] different, it could not be. When it's

[12:28] talking about like the favorite is

[12:29] covered, obviously that's a regular

[12:31] game. That's insane. But even on that to

[12:34] go back like the last, let's say we're

[12:35] going the last 20 years, the amount of

[12:37] times over two and a half passers. So

[12:39] one person beyond just the quarterbacks

[12:42] needs to attempt to pass in a game for

[12:43] that to hit. Even without like using

[12:46] past Super Bowl data, we can just simply

[12:48] say this is a game where the coach is

[12:50] going to go deeper into their bag on

[12:52] offense and that makes it more likely.

[12:54] That doesn't necessarily mean that we

[12:56] can use the trend from the past 20 years

[12:58] to supplement that sort of theory,

[12:59] right?

[13:00] >> Yeah. Correct. I mean, you just can't

[13:02] use the trends to supplement it. But in

[13:04] the case of the Super Bowl, the sample

[13:05] size is so small, you could argue that,

[13:07] hey, you know, like it provides back,

[13:09] it's similar to the Army Navy thing is

[13:11] another classic example of how real is

[13:13] it, how is it not,

[13:14] >> right? So, I do think there's some, but

[13:16] it's almost always used poorly and

[13:18] you're better off just staying away for

[13:19] the most part. feel like a lot of

[13:20] conversations we have is like, "Yeah,

[13:22] yeah, it there's there's some specific

[13:25] examples where maybe it's correct, but

[13:27] for the most part, it's better just to

[13:29] ignore it completely unless you really

[13:31] know exactly what you're going to be

[13:32] looking for." John, you have something

[13:34] to add?

[13:34] >> Yeah, I feel like with that one, it's a

[13:36] lot more recency bias. I've actually

[13:38] I've run the data on that and just in

[13:40] the Super Bowl in general, I think

[13:42] that's gone under like 65% of Super

[13:44] Bowls, the under two and a half passes.

[13:47] Well, let me tell you, it didn't go

[13:48] under in last year's Super Bowl cuz uh

[13:50] you know who bet it? Uh this guy right

[13:51] here. So,

[13:53] >> and and it was only because the backup

[13:55] came in, right?

[13:56] >> Yeah. Yeah. It wasn't even the trick

[13:57] play or anything. It was uh

[13:58] >> Right. I would agree though. It's more

[14:01] likely that somebody might be holding

[14:03] something in their bag that they maybe

[14:05] they're desperate. They have to pull

[14:06] something out. But historically, I mean,

[14:09] I know it's hit the last three, maybe

[14:12] four years, but historically, I'm pretty

[14:14] sure it's a it's a it's runs it runs

[14:18] higher than it would in the regular

[14:19] season, but it still goes under a lot

[14:21] more than it goes over,

[14:23] >> right? And that's why it's good to put a

[14:24] number on it is because you can look at

[14:26] and say, okay, maybe there is a 10% more

[14:28] likely chance that a second person

[14:29] throws a football, but there's certainly

[14:30] not a 50% chance. So, that's why it's

[14:32] helpful to kind of create those numbers

[14:34] and then look at the market. People just

[14:36] really love bets that can can turn in an

[14:39] instant so that you're always on the

[14:42] cusp of potentially winning that bet.

[14:44] And people like bets that settle very

[14:46] simply and very quickly, which is why

[14:49] we've seen such a rise in the popularity

[14:51] of betting on things like the coin toss

[14:53] in the Super Bowl. We see odds here po

[14:56] posted on the coin toss. Now, when I

[14:58] first got into betting, it was very rare

[15:00] I it was more rare, I think, to find

[15:01] less juice like this on the coin toss.

[15:04] you would still see like - 105s - 110s.

[15:06] Here we see it posted at - 104 on each

[15:10] side. The Super Bowl coin toss odds

[15:12] posted and Bryce at Bryce Lotto says

[15:14] betting on a coin toss at 49% with the

[15:17] dying rose emoji essentially saying how

[15:20] how stupid that would be to bet on it at

[15:22] 49%. Uh obviously an incredibly popular

[15:26] market for people for the reasons I

[15:28] described. It's like why first basket

[15:29] bet are so popular. want the bet to be

[15:31] over quickly and settle very simply. Uh

[15:35] Mike, how do we feel about people still

[15:37] betting this? Like, you have to know

[15:39] this is a bad bet. Why do we see people

[15:41] still betting this in 2026? Uh people

[15:44] play roulette. People play tons of card

[15:46] games at the casino that are purely

[15:48] chance games. I don't understand why

[15:51] this is any different. To me, it seems

[15:53] like a boring bet, but I also don't like

[15:54] roulette. So, you know, I like a game

[15:57] where even if I don't have input, I can

[15:59] feel like, you know, I'm making a

[16:01] difference versus market. And uh maybe

[16:03] in the Super Bowl, it's hyper efficient.

[16:05] I don't have any kind of edge versus

[16:06] market, but I at least like betting my

[16:08] opinion and kind of having somewhat of

[16:10] a, you know, think of that I'm doing

[16:12] something different as opposed to pure

[16:14] chance. But this is one of those where I

[16:16] don't I mean they're charging this kind

[16:18] of vig on everything and people just

[16:20] don't seem to notice for some reason uh

[16:22] when it's a regular team and now they do

[16:23] it for a coin toss and everybody loses

[16:25] their mind. So I don't know people like

[16:27] games of chance and if you're doing this

[16:29] or if you're betting actual sporting

[16:31] event it's still kind of the same

[16:33] process. So I get why people do it. I

[16:35] just it's not for me.

[16:36] >> Mike definitely not a roulette player

[16:38] but he definitely is a craps player. So

[16:40] maybe you'll you'll find him there if

[16:42] you ever see him in a casino. Uh over to

[16:44] you Kenishh on the topic of the coin

[16:47] toss. How how do you feel about it?

[16:49] >> I mean I think two things. One you can

[16:52] if you're really I mean there's a lot of

[16:54] places out there now that'll have the

[16:56] coin toss at like minus 101. Sometime

[17:00] sometimes you even find a place doing it

[17:01] like promotional to want to like to give

[17:03] it to you at plus 100. Um, I think the

[17:07] the issue you have with a lot of people

[17:08] is like if you're a FanDuel, a lot of

[17:10] people are one book people, which I know

[17:12] we always tell people to get as many

[17:14] out, but like it's just the way it is.

[17:16] So, if you're you're a FanDuel guy and

[17:19] you got your balance there and you want

[17:21] to bet the coin toss or you want to

[17:22] throw it in your SGP,

[17:24] you're just going to flip it in. NSPB's

[17:27] saying, you know, same thing where like

[17:28] if someone's putting SGP together,

[17:31] that's going to be 30 to one. They don't

[17:33] give a [ __ ] that, you know, if they put

[17:35] heads or tails in there, if it should

[17:37] have been, you know, plus 100, it'd be,

[17:38] you know, 31.29

[17:40] to one instead of 30, you know. So, I I

[17:43] just think it's one of those the vast

[17:44] majority of people that are betting it

[17:46] really, you know, there's no edge.

[17:48] Sharps aren't caring about this. So,

[17:50] it's like people are just throwing it

[17:53] up. And so I I again I I I'm with you. I

[17:56] thought you did a nice job with the lead

[17:57] in where people just want to bet the

[18:00] coin toss and have it in there. And so

[18:03] hey, I'm not going to kill anybody for

[18:05] it. It it's just like it it's very hard

[18:08] to explain like the the quantifying like

[18:11] the odds and the edge and maybe lack of

[18:13] an edge on certain bets. But I think for

[18:14] the coin toss, I think what people why

[18:17] people call it out is because such it's

[18:18] such an easy way to explain this is

[18:20] literally a 50/50 event and you are

[18:23] betting on it at worse than 50% odds.

[18:25] You are you are guaranteed to lose on

[18:27] this in in the long run. It might work

[18:29] out for you this time, but in the long

[18:31] run again guaranteed to lose at at that

[18:33] sort of price. Uh China, what are your

[18:35] thoughts on it?

[18:36] >> I'm a heads guy. I bet the coin costs

[18:40] every every every year. My buddy is

[18:42] Tails never fails and we just bet we bet

[18:45] each other fig free every year for a

[18:47] couple hundred bucks. So

[18:48] >> I don't know. I I think

[18:51] >> Yeah, I think all these books probably

[18:53] should be offering like, you know, just

[18:55] even money on the coin toss just as a

[18:57] promotion just to throw it in there. I

[18:59] mean, there's a million other bets that

[19:01] are going to Yeah.

[19:03] >> Okay.

[19:03] >> Or like throw it just a minus 101 or -

[19:06] 102, you I I again we're talking pennies

[19:09] here but like minus 104 seems a little

[19:12] uh you know a little maybe maybe you

[19:15] didn't have to go there but yeah I

[19:17] trying to say I think just people are

[19:18] just going to throw this in I don't

[19:20] think people are lining up out there to

[19:22] go like I want to do 10k on the coin

[19:24] toss it's I want the coin toss with you

[19:28] know Drake May anytime touchdown and

[19:30] Patriots to win and uh you know eight

[19:32] other things that hopefully will lose

[19:34] when the Seahawks you know win by

[19:37] Uh that that is good though. On the

[19:39] topic of promotional stuff, I've seen

[19:41] books in the past offer maybe one side

[19:43] at like plus 100. Uh what I do find

[19:45] interesting is that typically every year

[19:47] one of the most bet things in the Super

[19:50] Bowl is tails rather than heads. Like

[19:52] it's always tails seems to be the mo

[19:53] more popular choice for people to bet

[19:56] for whatever reason. Maybe it's just

[19:57] because the saying of of tales never

[19:59] fails. But I I do wonder why we don't

[20:02] see more books run promotions like this.

[20:05] They can give you neutral EV and if you

[20:08] win the bet, you're more likely to

[20:09] continue spending on a really bad bet of

[20:12] the Super Bowl at much worse EV than a

[20:14] minus 104 coin shots for example. And if

[20:16] you lose, I know this is very shady, but

[20:18] like are you not more likely to chase

[20:20] the bet just from already betting? Um,

[20:22] that's my theory. Mike, you wanted to

[20:24] add something there.

[20:25] >> That's some diabolical stuff there,

[20:27] Jacob, for hoping it loses.

[20:30] the amount of [ __ ] they do. Like, you

[20:32] don't think this this doesn't like seem

[20:34] like an easy way to make, oh, we're

[20:36] being good guys. You can bet the coin

[20:38] toss at even odds. And it makes people

[20:40] more incentivized to bet whether they

[20:42] win or lose. I would I would think I not

[20:44] that I've studied this or anything.

[20:45] >> Yeah, I I think that uh you know, good

[20:48] for any books taking a principal stand

[20:50] against putting up the coin toss there,

[20:52] but if you are going to put it up, why

[20:54] not throw it up at all 100? Just let the

[20:56] people bet it. And it like it's to it

[20:59] doesn't actually do any consumer harm to

[21:02] charge minus 104 to be clear. We're

[21:03] talking about like you know the person

[21:05] who drives a little bit extra in order

[21:07] to get gas at 3 cents cheaper. And it's

[21:09] like what are we doing here? But it's a

[21:12] nice thing that you could throw your

[21:13] customers away and you could promote the

[21:14] hell out of it and you know it's plus EV

[21:16] or it's you know negative it's neutral

[21:18] EV for you as a book. So yeah I I think

[21:20] it's probably a decent marketing

[21:21] opportunity for some of these places.

[21:23] >> Yeah. I I I think we'll see at least

[21:25] somebody offer it. I I I've seen in the

[21:27] past books offered on one side. You can

[21:29] get one side at the boosted odds at plus

[21:32] 100. Go ahead, Ch.

[21:33] >> I got I got something to add here. So,

[21:36] the smartest thing any of these books

[21:37] could do is offer one side at like minus

[21:40] 110, offer even money at the other side,

[21:43] and you know, all the dons on gambling

[21:45] Twitter are just going to bet the minus

[21:46] 110 side because they're going to say

[21:48] it's rigged. So, I mean, that's

[21:50] >> that's, you know, that's interesting as

[21:52] well. There's a lot you could do with

[21:53] this rather than just offer it at the

[21:55] simple minus 104. I I'll bring up

[21:57] something that Rob always says, uh, CEO

[21:59] of the hammer when it comes to the coin

[22:01] toss, is that as as as dumb as it seems

[22:03] to bet at 49% for a 50% possibility of

[22:08] an outcome. Of all the things people

[22:10] bet, like, you know, for there to be a

[22:12] safety, for there to be an octopus, this

[22:14] might be the highest EV they have on any

[22:17] wager on their ticket or all their

[22:19] tickets for the entire night because

[22:21] they're only getting it at a very slight

[22:23] negative edge when a lot of the other

[22:24] things they could be betting are at a

[22:26] very large negative edge. Uh, you guys

[22:29] agree with that?

[22:31] >> Yeah, but there's something to at least

[22:32] having the joy of coming up with a

[22:34] handicap. Like that's why people like to

[22:36] sports bet, right? is because they want

[22:37] to put their opinion to the test. You

[22:39] don't have an opinion if you're betting

[22:40] the coin toss. I get that they're not

[22:43] actually, you know, it's all pure chance

[22:45] if we're being realistic with it. But

[22:47] let people have their fantasies of

[22:48] picking.

[22:49] >> Some people consider coin toss to be

[22:51] their opinion. They they think it's it

[22:52] tails never fails. Like like China said,

[22:54] he always goes for heads. Uh, I will say

[22:57] if you do if you are at a Super Bowl

[22:59] watch party and you actually do want to

[23:00] bet on the coin toss, uh, as China said,

[23:04] maybe there's a way you don't have to

[23:05] pay any vague in order to actually make

[23:08] that coin toss wager that you want to

[23:10] make. And, um, I would listen, I'd

[23:13] advise against betting the coin toss,

[23:15] but I was I was once a DJ who did bet

[23:17] the coin toss. So, uh, we've all been

[23:19] there in the past. Uh, maybe maybe we've

[23:21] all been there, but but I would say I

[23:23] certainly have. Uh, we're going to keep

[23:24] it moving on the show in just a second

[23:26] here. Let's get a word in from our

[23:28] friends here at the main channel here of

[23:31] the Hammer Bag Network, The Hammer HQ,

[23:33] where we run the Hammer Daily Show. If

[23:35] you're a person who likes to fire on all

[23:36] kinds of sports every day, we have the

[23:38] perfect show for you. The Hammer Daily

[23:40] with Jason Cooper goes down Monday to

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[23:57] yourself subscribed on YouTube today.

[24:00] Next up, we are sticking with the Super

[24:02] Bowl. Shady Bee posted this. Uh he's a

[24:05] person who likes to give out bets on

[24:08] gambling Twitter. Uh we've we've clowned

[24:10] him in the past. We've supported some of

[24:11] his takes in the past, but here he has

[24:13] one on how to get the Seahawks at plus

[24:16] money for the Super Bowl. The Seahawks

[24:18] obviously the betting favorite right

[24:19] now. He says Ohio State money line, Duke

[24:22] money line, both in college basketball.

[24:24] Seahawks money line on a parlay plus

[24:26] 101. Boom. You just got the Seahawks at

[24:29] plus money. Ohio State and Duke both won

[24:32] their respective games at - 800 and -460

[24:36] which gives now the Seahawks not well

[24:38] granted not quite at plus 101 here. More

[24:40] like minus 101 with the with the bet

[24:43] that he actually placed but still we'll

[24:45] say close. Uh that's to get the Seahawks

[24:47] at even money even money for the Super

[24:50] Bowl. So we've seen things like this not

[24:53] work out in the past, but how do we feel

[24:56] about this strategy, Kenesh?

[24:59] >> Okay, I'm going to be one. It's funny

[25:02] cuz this I think the offshore is using

[25:05] is like the modern version of five dimes

[25:09] which used to let you parlay futures.

[25:14] And so the amount of like heavy chalk

[25:20] money lines I'd put into some futures to

[25:23] juice them up like the amount of and I'm

[25:26] not saying these were like great but

[25:27] this was like the thing that like no

[25:31] other books would let you do in this

[25:34] instance it's like a single game. You

[25:36] know what I'm saying? So here so but are

[25:39] you you never hear about I got a buddy

[25:43] that like who I bet with that people

[25:44] would know on Twitter CK uh who would do

[25:49] these like like crack like every week on

[25:52] this but you never hear he would never

[25:54] share he'd always you know send

[25:56] screenshot oh I got this new you know I

[25:58] got uh the you know the the Gonzaga to

[26:01] win the tournament now at 86 to1 and

[26:03] stuff but you never hear about the

[26:05] losers when people do this where like

[26:08] all it takes is one, you know, like uh

[26:11] heavy juice soccer game to go the wrong

[26:13] way and uh you're you're you're out of

[26:16] luck here. So I are you actually getting

[26:19] EV in this strategy? I would say no. In

[26:23] certain instances though,

[26:27] I've employed the strategy in the past.

[26:29] We'll say that. But not not for like a a

[26:33] straight game money line like that. more

[26:36] to take a future that might be 30 to1 or

[26:38] 40 to1 and get it to, you know, try and

[26:41] get it to 100 or 200 or that type of

[26:43] thing.

[26:44] >> Okay. Uh interesting. Uh I'll go to Mike

[26:47] here next. What do you think about a

[26:49] strategy like this?

[26:51] >> Uh this is great until it isn't on all

[26:55] >> kind of like, you know, get the better

[26:57] price live. heads like all these things

[26:59] where I'll just make the odds a little

[27:02] bit better by adding this in and then it

[27:04] almost always blows up in your face. Uh

[27:07] I've had uh I a lot of times I will

[27:10] parlay stuff with large money favorites

[27:12] in order to kind of hide action. Um I

[27:14] hope that's pretty common occurrence. So

[27:16] I don't think I'm giving anything away

[27:17] there. I hope not. But um and when the

[27:20] like dummy leg loses, let me tell you

[27:22] that is just so painful to watch.

[27:26] Especially when you're non dummy leg

[27:28] wins and your dummy leg loses, it almost

[27:31] counts as two losses. So yeah, this is a

[27:34] you know a great example until it isn't

[27:35] for Shady B. At least he did take the

[27:38] other two bets first. So if he loses, he

[27:40] can double down and lose twice as much.

[27:42] >> True. That's true. Uh what about you,

[27:44] China? How do you how do you feel about

[27:45] this? Yeah, it's good to use in certain

[27:48] scenarios like Mike was saying. It was

[27:50] a, you know, this is something we used a

[27:51] lot this year betting props where, you

[27:54] know, where we got our hands tied and

[27:56] can't bet props in certain places. You

[27:58] throw in a minus 3,000 with a prop and

[28:02] now maybe you can get five to six times

[28:04] as much on a ticket. Spread them all

[28:06] out. There you go. But I mean, at the

[28:10] end of the day, like like um Kenish

[28:12] said, you just you never hear about the

[28:14] losers unless it's Fezic posting Purdue

[28:17] money line for the tournament, you know,

[28:19] like

[28:20] >> so uh I do so I do agree there are

[28:22] instances where this can work. I don't I

[28:25] don't mean to be slanderous here. I

[28:26] don't think this is an example of Shady

[28:28] Bee, you know, gaming the system a

[28:30] little bit. He is betting a Super Bowl

[28:32] money line after all. But if you are a

[28:34] really good sports better, you are

[28:36] winning sports better, like China said,

[28:38] this could be a way you get more money

[28:40] down. As actually Jeff Vineberg on the

[28:42] Monday show two weeks ago did this while

[28:44] we were live to help get himself a

[28:46] little bit more down on a golf outright

[28:48] that he wanted to make. But also, you

[28:50] can mask sometimes your good bet with a

[28:54] parlay like this where maybe a trader

[28:57] isn't going to care as much about a

[28:58] parlay rather than you make, let's say,

[29:01] a player prop that moves a lot. Maybe

[29:03] that doesn't get picked up as easily

[29:05] when it's mixed with two other heavy

[29:08] favorites on on player props, for

[29:10] example, for SGPs. So, I don't think

[29:12] that's an example of this, but there are

[29:14] situations where you can employ this to

[29:15] your benefit. That's right. You use it

[29:18] to hide the garbage play. So, the

[29:20] garbage that you want to get in that's a

[29:21] high ROI. You know, they don't want the

[29:24] bet to come in. That's what you use to

[29:26] hide it. You don't use it to hide your

[29:27] Super Bowl bet or to give your Super

[29:29] Bowl bet odds. You're just giving

[29:30] yourself more juice. So yes,

[29:32] >> yeah, there's a difference between using

[29:34] it to hide stuff and using it to give

[29:36] yourself fake good odds.

[29:38] >> Absolutely. That'll take us into the

[29:40] next topic. We're sticking with

[29:41] football, but we're now coming off of

[29:43] the Super Bowl. We're going to talk

[29:44] about the NF, sorry, the Pro Football

[29:47] Hall of Fame. Not quite sports betting,

[29:48] but I think just a large enough topic as

[29:50] a whole that we need to cover this. Um,

[29:54] Seth Wickers along with many other

[29:56] people provided the reports that Bill

[29:58] Bich is not a first ballot hall of

[30:01] famer. He did not get elected in. The

[30:03] eighttime champion failed to get 40 out

[30:05] of the 50 votes required for the

[30:08] induction. I I just love this. Jimmy

[30:10] Johnson, Pro Football Hall of Fame head

[30:12] coach, quote tweeted this. He said, "I

[30:14] would bet that if the Hall of Fame votes

[30:16] were public, very few of the [ __ ]

[30:18] that did not vote for Bill Bich would

[30:20] come forward. Already some are lying

[30:22] about their vote. And the problem is he

[30:24] quote tweeted a video of Ky Fairbar

[30:27] hitting a field goal uh for the Texans

[30:30] against the Patriots. Uh I I just this

[30:34] is so funny. Uh I don't know how you

[30:37] even how is this video even in your

[30:39] timeline at all like a over a week later

[30:42] to be able to quote tweet it and you're

[30:44] so angry. He was so angry he didn't know

[30:47] he was quote tweeting this. did post a

[30:49] second quote tweet which was under the

[30:52] correct tweet where he was saying he

[30:54] wants the people to come forward who who

[30:56] didn't vote for Belichc because at the

[30:59] moment uh these votes are private uh

[31:02] because this mentions that uh some of

[31:04] the influence on Bill Bich not being a

[31:06] first battle hall of famer was his

[31:08] presence in Spygate and deflategate and

[31:11] this was some somewhat of a punishment.

[31:13] Let's go to our Patriots fan here uh

[31:16] China. Uh, I'm sure you're not pleased

[31:18] about this, but go through your emotions

[31:20] on it.

[31:21] >> Well, it's just in general like the

[31:23] football hall of fame, it's it's it's

[31:25] weird. Kind of like the other Hall of

[31:27] Fames. The the the voters, they have

[31:30] these sick agendas and they want to

[31:32] punish people. Like I think I remember

[31:34] Terrell Owens didn't get in on the first

[31:36] ballot.

[31:37] >> Yeah.

[31:37] >> And he's arguably, you know, a top three

[31:39] receiver of all time. It feels like they

[31:42] get a million guys in every year, but

[31:45] somehow like you know, Mike Shanahan's

[31:47] not in the Hall of Fame. Reggie Wayne's

[31:49] not in the Hall of Fame. I could go on

[31:51] and on with these lists, but if anybody

[31:53] is a first ballot hall of famer, I mean,

[31:55] it's the guy that's coached in 20% of

[31:57] the Super Bowls, who's won more Super

[31:59] Bowls than anybody, and the guy who

[32:01] launched Tom Brady's career. I mean, Tom

[32:03] Brady could be stocking shelves if uh

[32:05] Bellich didn't elevate him from the uh

[32:08] you know, the the he was the third guy

[32:10] on the depth chart. Move moved him up

[32:12] the depth chart, started him over a

[32:13] healthy Drew Bloodso in the Super Bowl,

[32:15] and then you know, the rest is history.

[32:17] So, at the end of the day, you know,

[32:19] people want to point to the taping of

[32:21] teams practices, which never happened,

[32:23] was never proven. The football inflation

[32:26] thing was debunked, and yes, they did

[32:28] record signals, but so did every other

[32:30] team in the league. He they only got

[32:32] turned in because the the guy on the

[32:34] other sideline I think it was Eric

[32:36] Manini who used to coach with Bellichic.

[32:38] So I don't know pretty much it's just a

[32:41] punishment for dominating the league for

[32:43] 20 years and for kind of being smug with

[32:46] the media but at the end of the day I

[32:48] mean of course he's going to get in. But

[32:50] not to get in on the first bell it's

[32:52] crazy. But I did see one point today

[32:54] from a guy who did have a vote and his

[32:56] reasoning was there were guys that were

[32:59] going to fall off the ballot if they

[33:01] didn't get voted in this year. And

[33:03] that's like the only semi-logical reason

[33:06] somebody could actually give for not

[33:09] voting Bellich in.

[33:10] >> Yeah. But that I can kind of understand.

[33:13] But at the same time, there are other

[33:14] people on that you could be voting for

[33:18] or not voting for rather in that

[33:19] instance. Like this is like this is a

[33:21] this is a surefire no doubt first bout

[33:23] Hall of Famer like that this is probably

[33:25] a top three example of any coach who

[33:28] ever should have been first bout Hall of

[33:30] Fame. Like I I I don't know if there

[33:32] were there were odds up for this but I I

[33:34] the odds must have been astronomical for

[33:36] for Bellich to be a first bout of famer.

[33:39] Uh Kenish go over to you your thoughts

[33:41] on this as a as a non Patriots fan.

[33:45] I I mean I listen I'm not going to

[33:47] pretend I'm you know was ever you know

[33:49] big Patriots guy but you respected you

[33:52] know like the the greatness and what he

[33:54] did and this is what happens when you

[33:57] when you don't have public votes like

[34:00] when you don't have people like people

[34:02] don't in the MLB Hall of Fame if you

[34:04] were going to not vote Bonds or one of

[34:07] the steroid guys out there one you had

[34:09] at least a little bit more of a

[34:10] rationale and a case and two the voting

[34:14] get the votes kind of released and

[34:15] public like when you let people hide

[34:18] under the cloud of anonymity. This is

[34:21] what happens. I guarantee I guarantee if

[34:25] the votes were public, this does not

[34:27] happen. Because if you came out and

[34:30] you're like now you're getting shamed

[34:31] and trolled and like you're getting uh

[34:34] you know, China and all his boys showing

[34:35] up, you know, at your at your lunch and

[34:37] you know, putting you into the the room,

[34:39] you know, the the wall in the bathroom

[34:41] and saying, "Why don't you vote for

[34:42] Bellich?" Then you wouldn't be uh you

[34:45] know, you this wouldn't happen and it

[34:47] shouldn't happen. So I I agree. I hate

[34:49] the lack of accountability. And Bill

[34:52] Polon, absolute snake. I can't remember

[34:56] who I voted for. Get out of here, you

[34:59] [ __ ] schmuck. Yo, you you cost Payton

[35:01] Manning most of his career cuz you're

[35:02] such an idiot. You had the some of the

[35:04] worst takes ever on Lamar Jackson and

[35:06] stuff. And now you're like, you know,

[35:09] wanting to play uh you know, uh like the

[35:12] the

[35:13] puppet master behind the scenes to not

[35:15] get Bellichic on first ballot. So, uh,

[35:18] this is disgraceful.

[35:20] >> Uh, let's go over to you, Mike. You can

[35:22] either like give your take on this or

[35:24] maybe we can kind of like extend the

[35:26] conversation a bit further into do you

[35:27] think these votes should be made public?

[35:30] >> I do kind of worry that when you make

[35:33] the votes public, there becomes an

[35:35] automatic peer pressure for everybody to

[35:38] get in. There is a this guy didn't vote

[35:41] for who blank and you know, you get

[35:43] people mad. You get this, you get way

[35:45] more group think. Um, so in general, I

[35:48] don't know if I'm for the committee kind

[35:51] of publicly displaying their votes. What

[35:53] I will say is if you have a committee

[35:56] who doesn't put Bill Bichc in, then you

[35:59] need to either then you need to get rid

[36:00] of the committee is what you need to do

[36:02] is you need to get new members. It

[36:03] doesn't matter if those votes are

[36:04] public. I don't want those people either

[36:06] these people are incapable of making the

[36:08] vote themselves and then we're just

[36:10] going to have a kind of group think

[36:12] pressure to make them correct when the

[36:14] real answer is get people who can

[36:15] actually do the job and do it

[36:17] competently. So um you know I think like

[36:19] a good example is this is the NBA hall

[36:21] of fa or it's the basketball hall of

[36:22] fame has Mo cheeks in it. There is no

[36:24] world you know all respect to Mo cheeks

[36:27] where he should be a hall of famer in uh

[36:29] basketball but they've now allowed

[36:31] basically everybody in so the bar gets

[36:32] lowered. I'm okay with having a high bar

[36:34] to get in, but like this is the

[36:36] obviously the greatest coach of all

[36:38] time. If there's one person who needs to

[36:40] be in, it's him. Do we think, here's a

[36:43] theory that you know, China said that

[36:46] somebody may have not included him

[36:47] because they needed to get somebody else

[36:48] on. Do we think there was a couple

[36:51] people who all were like, "Well, of

[36:53] course, [ __ ] Bellich's going to get

[36:54] in." Like, they thought that they could

[36:57] not use their vote on Bellich because he

[36:59] was already clinched a spot. and then

[37:01] they tried to get other people in.

[37:03] >> Every year there's going to be somebody

[37:05] who's about to lose their eligibility.

[37:07] Like you're just delaying this problem

[37:09] another year if you don't solve it now.

[37:11] >> Could he have been such a slam dunk that

[37:14] they thought I get X votes, he's going

[37:16] to get in anyways, let me just go ahead

[37:18] and not waste my vote, you know, in

[37:21] another sent.

[37:23] >> No, because I don't think they do it

[37:25] like the B like baseball. I think you

[37:27] mail your ballot in football. I think

[37:29] they all congregate and go into one

[37:32] meeting room and they discuss it

[37:34] >> then. That's insane. Okay. You know, I

[37:36] now that I'm learning that everybody on

[37:38] the committee gone. Everybody. Not one.

[37:40] >> I'm pretty I'm I'm like pretty sure

[37:42] that's how they do it. They go into a

[37:44] room and they all talk it out and I from

[37:47] the reports I think Bill Polon was very

[37:50] vocal about not not getting him in.

[37:53] >> That's what it says here. I also didn't

[37:54] realize they all sit in a room together.

[37:57] It just gives me like this 12 Angry Men

[37:59] vibe where Polon can kind of show up. 49

[38:02] people are like, "Okay, we're obviously

[38:04] voting for Bill, but he's like, "Well,

[38:06] hang on. Just let me try and convince

[38:08] you guys about this right now." And I I

[38:10] don't know, Mike, you might be right

[38:11] that that might have been a factor where

[38:13] people thought like maybe like he should

[38:16] get enough votes anyways. If he doesn't

[38:18] this, he'll get another year. But I

[38:20] don't know. feels

[38:21] >> that was only if it was anonymous and

[38:23] they and the thought there would have to

[38:25] be everybody else is voting him in like

[38:27] I don't need to everybody else will get

[38:28] if they're in a room and they're

[38:29] deciding this I I got to say then Bill

[38:32] Pollon we do need to employ him in some

[38:34] kind of sales role if you can Bill Bich

[38:37] not getting in like that's a man who can

[38:39] sell [ __ ] snow to an Eskimo you know

[38:41] >> obviously like we do understand the

[38:42] prestige of getting like Bill Belch's

[38:44] going to get in but like we do

[38:45] understand the prestige of getting in

[38:47] for his bout like that's just that's

[38:48] just like it's like a unanimous MVP P

[38:50] type of thing. Like it's a little bit

[38:52] more special when you accomplish defeat

[38:53] in in in such a convincing manner that

[38:56] uh again it does it does matter here. Uh

[38:59] I I kind of like this just this reminds

[39:02] me of like the way UFC treats like refs.

[39:04] If there is a if there is a about that

[39:08] it's very clearly this person won and

[39:10] one of the judges says the other person

[39:12] won, they will just remove him from

[39:15] being able to judge any fight for the

[39:16] rest of the night pretty much. So, I

[39:18] think we need to have that kind of cut

[39:20] up stuff here. If you didn't vote Bill

[39:21] Bellichic, like you probably shouldn't

[39:24] be voting going forward. That That's how

[39:25] I feel about it. So, we can move forward

[39:28] here. I do want to highlight though, I

[39:30] don't know if Bellichic was listed here

[39:32] previously, but Khi does now have a

[39:35] market up where you can predict who is

[39:38] going to be nominated for the 2026 Pro

[39:40] Football Hall of Fame class. You have

[39:42] people like Drew Brees at 99%. I I have

[39:45] to feel like Belichc would have probably

[39:46] been 99%. People like Luke Keequley at

[39:49] 74%, Larry Fitzgerald at 92%, and a

[39:52] whole host of other names you can take a

[39:54] stab at here. Again, you can do so by

[39:56] going to Cali. There's so many other

[39:57] great markets available, especially for

[39:59] the Super Bowl. You can sign up today

[40:01] with the QR code that is on screen or by

[40:03] going to the link in the description. If

[40:04] you're listening in audio form, you can

[40:06] do it if you're in video form as well if

[40:07] you think that's a little bit easier.

[40:09] you can get signed up to Cali today, get

[40:11] involved with a great product and

[40:13] support the show at the exact same time.

[40:15] But next up on the show, we're going to

[40:17] go to a couple comments that I wanted to

[40:19] highlight from the previous week's show.

[40:20] As always, comment something down below

[40:22] if you haven't taken anything that we

[40:23] speak about. Chum43 said, "As a lover

[40:26] and follower of chess, the poker/math

[40:28] conversation reminds me of what people

[40:30] said about computers solving chess with

[40:32] math optimization back in the day. Some

[40:34] might still argue me on this, but

[40:36] generally in the chess world, it has

[40:38] only made things more interesting and

[40:39] popular. Sometimes you need to add some

[40:42] nuance and complications and new angles

[40:44] to keep a game interesting. AI quote

[40:46] unquote solving chess mathematically

[40:49] certainly hasn't homogenized the game,

[40:51] nor ruined the competitive nature and

[40:53] fun of the game, but it has increased

[40:54] its popular led to a lot of interesting

[40:56] innovation. There was a time when

[40:58] checkers was more popular than chess.

[41:00] Now there is no comparison. So I don't

[41:01] know. Was there really a time when

[41:03] checkers was more popular than chess?

[41:04] >> I don't know that one I read. I I don't

[41:06] know.

[41:07] >> I mean, I like checkers more, but it's

[41:08] just cuz I'm too stupid to play chess.

[41:10] So,

[41:11] >> for six-year-olds, maybe like what?

[41:13] >> Yeah. Maybe in third grade.

[41:14] >> Also, AI didn't be didn't solve uh

[41:18] chess. Chess was in like solved by

[41:20] computers way before AI.

[41:21] >> Yeah. Yeah. Uh likely I just quick

[41:24] Google. Checkers likely held higher

[41:27] popularity chess among the general

[41:28] public at various points due to its

[41:29] simpler rules especially in the 1800s.

[41:32] Oh uh I don't say I don't know anyways

[41:36] on the point of it the the the comment

[41:38] the comment is on the math side of it we

[41:41] spoke about last week how we don't

[41:43] believe that bringing math more to the

[41:46] forefront of poker play is going to

[41:48] allow it to become more popular whereas

[41:51] Chum here says that that actually did

[41:53] help chess become more popular. Uh I can

[41:57] understand the theory. I I guess we'll

[41:59] get your take on it Mike. I'll say mine

[42:01] first of all. I I feel like in the like

[42:04] in a nondispectful way, the the people

[42:07] that are playing chess are different

[42:10] than the people that are playing poker.

[42:11] Uh what do you think?

[42:13] >> I mean, amen to that.

[42:16] >> Not trying to be disrespectful. I'm just

[42:18] I I think factually speaking, that's how

[42:21] I feel. Go ahead, Mike.

[42:22] >> Once Matt started to get involved in

[42:23] chess, then we started having, you know,

[42:25] Bobby Fischer go crazy and going on

[42:28] crazy rants and disappearing. I I don't

[42:30] know. I is what the world we want poker

[42:32] to become like is chess. Is that like

[42:33] what we're shooting for if as the poker

[42:36] world? I don't think so. So I I again

[42:38] disagree. I think that people want to

[42:40] play poker for way different reasons

[42:42] than worrying about the math. Um the

[42:44] people who play chess

[42:46] let them play.

[42:47] >> Yeah. The poker boom was driven solely

[42:50] by like financial opportunity where

[42:54] there isn't really that opportunity in

[42:58] chess. Um, I mean, even if you make it

[43:00] to like

[43:02] >> Okay, but you got to be in the

[43:05] >> I I think we're talking like

[43:07] >> But up until like was it 2003, you would

[43:10] have said about poker as well. It's not

[43:12] like anybody can just roll in and win,

[43:14] >> but you can play home games.

[43:16] >> Nobody's just playing for 10 bucks a

[43:18] game of chess, you know, unless you're

[43:20] in the

[43:21] >> I don't know. Go through like just go

[43:23] through some some like parks in New

[43:25] York. You probably will find games you

[43:26] can play for money for chess. I just but

[43:28] I think we're talking significant orders

[43:30] of magnitude. I think your typical chess

[43:33] player does not play chess for a

[43:36] financial gain

[43:36] >> for the love of the game.

[43:38] >> Yes.

[43:39] >> Poker people are playing for the

[43:41] incentive.

[43:42] >> Yes. So I I think that you got very as

[43:44] you said very different crowds of people

[43:47] that are into these two things.

[43:49] >> Okay. How about you China? What do you

[43:50] think?

[43:51] >> Yeah. like poker was driven the the

[43:53] poker boom was driven by the characters

[43:55] and the unpredictability of the play. If

[43:58] anything, the math and the the the

[44:00] solvers and the AI that has come into

[44:02] poker has made it very very boring in my

[44:05] opinion. So, you know, you look at

[44:08] chess, I would guess it would be the

[44:10] same way unless you're like one of these

[44:13] top, you know, 50 nerds that are playing

[44:17] for these championships every year. But

[44:19] they're all I think they're all like

[44:21] anti that stuff too because people are

[44:23] starting to bring devices into the games

[44:25] that buzz and and cheat cheat as they're

[44:28] playing. So

[44:29] >> I don't know any type of math that is

[44:31] brought into any game even sports

[44:33] betting it just makes it worse for the

[44:36] average person. The only thing I would

[44:38] counter there is and somebody it's going

[44:42] to have to be PB to check me on this cuz

[44:44] I I think in poker

[44:47] like there's only a solver is much

[44:50] easier to make the game significantly

[44:52] less variant. Whereas in chess, your

[44:57] your amount of combinations and variance

[45:01] is so significantly higher that I don't

[45:05] think that would impact

[45:08] the the quality of play or the content

[45:12] if that's what I'm like if you're

[45:14] watching a chess match versus a p I I'm

[45:17] I'm with you China where I think the

[45:19] solver method you have so many people

[45:21] playing the same way in poker now it

[45:24] becomes

[45:24] much more boring. Whereas I don't know

[45:27] if that's as much of an issue in chess

[45:32] >> if that theory makes sense.

[45:34] >> And maybe it doesn't.

[45:35] >> I don't know.

[45:36] >> I don't know. I I don't know how to play

[45:38] pok or I do know how to play poker, but

[45:40] I'd never played poker seriously and I

[45:42] don't know how to play chess really.

[45:44] other than

[45:45] >> I would get I would guess it's just much

[45:47] harder because even if you study all

[45:50] that stuff that the computers and the

[45:52] solvers are doing to actually have the

[45:54] brain to implement all of those moves I

[45:57] mean like we said computers solved chess

[45:59] like 30 years ago I don't know how maybe

[46:01] even longer maybe 50 years ago I'm not

[46:03] sure but to bring that in and actually

[46:05] implement a lot of those strategies is

[46:07] probably extremely difficult I would

[46:09] guess as well

[46:10] >> is chess considered like a solved game

[46:13] like

[46:14] like uh like like tic-tac-toe is a

[46:16] solved game. If you play it correctly,

[46:18] you you cannot you cannot possibly lose

[46:20] it. I guess it's not quite it. So

[46:23] >> I don't know. Could it be?

[46:25] >> Yeah. So chess is deterministic in that

[46:27] you could plot all the like the reason

[46:30] it was solved way before AI is you can

[46:32] just map out every single combination.

[46:35] >> Obviously much higher skill than

[46:37] tic-tac-toe. But

[46:38] >> yeah. Yeah. No, I know. But it's

[46:39] deterministic in the same way that

[46:40] tic-tac-toe is. And poker is not

[46:42] deterministic that way because you don't

[46:44] know what your uh counterparty can do

[46:45] and you know there's obviously different

[46:47] levels of raising and things like that

[46:49] similar uh

[46:50] >> and the level of unknown and you could

[46:52] predict what they have but

[46:54] >> yeah but you can't you can never uh they

[46:57] can you know there's basically unlimited

[46:59] combinations of uh people folding

[47:01] different people doing different things

[47:02] and so it's similar to if anybody wants

[47:04] to watch a good doc alpha go uh is when

[47:07] they train the first AI to play go um

[47:09] and they go into why it's so much harder

[47:11] to play bad versus chess and how chess

[47:13] is basically solvable like you said.

[47:16] >> All right, interesting conversation

[47:17] there. Uh we Hey, any chess experts

[47:20] watching, please enlighten us. Enlighten

[47:22] us as to further information on this

[47:24] topic. I do find it interesting. Second

[47:26] comment I'm going to feature here comes

[47:27] from uh Aka Cam 5716. Uh long comment,

[47:32] but just to summarize here, there a

[47:34] beginning better who started betting a

[47:36] year ago, transitioned from $5 [ __ ]

[47:38] parlays to arbing and promo scumming,

[47:40] which is a lot easier in Ontario in

[47:42] Canada because there are so many

[47:44] competing sports books who offer a lot

[47:46] of great promotions. Has gone through

[47:48] accounts betting in this way. um has

[47:50] talked about top down betting stuff and

[47:53] has get good access to accounts here but

[47:56] now wants to find the new level where

[47:59] they don't want to get limited so

[48:01] quickly with the top down approach the

[48:03] arbing approach etc. So uh we'll go over

[48:06] to we'll start let's say with China here

[48:08] what is the next step for the better

[48:10] that's kind of hit the ceiling with

[48:12] arbing and top down betting etc.

[48:16] find more accounts and link up with

[48:19] people that can win. That's it's that

[48:21] simple.

[48:22] >> Okay?

[48:23] >> Just you just got to keep finding more

[48:24] accounts. If I mean, if you're arbing

[48:27] your your accounts are going to get cut

[48:28] off. When your accounts get cut off,

[48:30] then what do you do? You just got to

[48:31] find more accounts, find more outs, and

[48:34] find people that can win actually with

[48:37] math that are using math to exploit the

[48:41] books holes.

[48:42] >> So, what would that sort of partnership

[48:44] like? What what could you offer there if

[48:45] you were a top down better in something

[48:47] like that? Just access to accounts.

[48:50] >> What if I was the top down better?

[48:52] >> Yeah.

[48:53] >> You're saying? Yeah. If I was the top

[48:54] down better, I I would get accounts and

[48:56] I'd bring them over I'd bring them to

[48:58] one of these two guys right here and I'd

[48:59] just say, "Hey, you want to fry these

[49:01] accounts for me and um you know, work

[49:03] out some kind of a deal."

[49:05] >> Okay. Uh how about you, Kenish? What

[49:07] what advice would you give in this

[49:08] scenario?

[49:09] >> Uh you know, this is this is tough,

[49:11] right? cuz I I will say, you know, great

[49:13] job to uh Aam here in terms of like you

[49:18] figured you figured it out, right? You

[49:20] figured out how to turn from just doing

[49:21] stupid parlays into like the the

[49:24] promoing and then oh top down like

[49:26] you've kind of made the natural

[49:27] transition from Square to like Wreck

[49:30] Plus and like made yourself some money

[49:32] doing that. The next step is probably

[49:37] what I would say is the hardest step. um

[49:41] in terms of a and I've you know I've

[49:44] gone through this too where you know a

[49:46] lot of accounts churn and that and the

[49:50] ability like

[49:53] how can I say this how I'm still going

[49:57] now is

[50:02] some of the relationships and deals and

[50:05] things I've made over the years through

[50:08] networking And that um that allows me to

[50:12] still and also you know to find a bunch

[50:13] of people that win in different

[50:15] locations. I

[50:18] when you say you know maybe try and

[50:19] become a mover for more experienced US

[50:21] better the the problems I would have it

[50:24] would be

[50:26] you know are you tied to then that one

[50:28] better and his success? How do you know

[50:30] he's going to be successful? Are you

[50:31] going to be able to keep getting fills

[50:33] from him? There's just a lot of

[50:34] logistics there that that might be

[50:37] difficult. Um I would tend to agree with

[50:41] China that like you know kind of

[50:43] accounts is like the end all. Um, but at

[50:46] some point you reach the threshold. I I

[50:49] call it the circle of trust where you've

[50:52] got your own, you've got then your

[50:54] family, your circle widens a little bit,

[50:55] your close friends, all people who you

[50:57] know won't steal your, you know, money

[50:59] from you or screw you over or you have

[51:01] good relationships with. Once you're

[51:03] outside of the circle of trust and then

[51:06] it's like friends of a friends or people

[51:09] you've met through the internet, that's

[51:12] when the risk goes up. And you just want

[51:15] to make sure as you expand that web that

[51:18] you're not putting yourself in an

[51:21] unadvantageous position where you could

[51:23] take, you know, big layowns or let's say

[51:26] you've made 50,000 from doing this so

[51:29] far. You don't want to, you know, extend

[51:32] yourself to that point with outside of

[51:36] the circle of trust and be at risk of

[51:38] like, oh, now I've lost everything

[51:40] because I trusted some people I

[51:42] shouldn't have or some accounts got shut

[51:44] down. That type of thing. That'd

[51:45] probably be the best advice I could give

[51:47] you. That's not super in the weeds.

[51:50] >> Okay. Uh, let's go over to you, Mike.

[51:52] What would be your advice to this

[51:53] person?

[51:54] >> Yeah. So, it sounds like you have

[51:55] accounts. um you know the total number

[51:57] of the money that you make is going to

[51:59] be the number of accounts you have and

[52:01] the number and how much you get from

[52:03] each account. Uh you're trying to

[52:04] increase how much you get from an

[52:05] account. You can either partner with

[52:07] someone to do it or you can you know try

[52:09] to do it yourself. Um either way it's

[52:12] going to take some kind of uh you know

[52:14] work on your end. Um and you just got to

[52:17] have to ask you know what do you provide

[52:19] as value. Uh it sounds like right now

[52:20] you have account so you got to find

[52:22] either someone to provide the other end

[52:24] of the value equation or uh work on it

[52:26] yourself.

[52:27] >> So the advice I've gotten previously

[52:30] like like Ken said this is like a the

[52:32] largest jump you're going to make. The

[52:34] advice I've gotten previously is that

[52:37] there is a bit of a misunderstanding of

[52:40] the bar for what you need to provide in

[52:44] in a partnership like this. If you're

[52:45] providing accounts for example and if

[52:48] you communicate efficiently, you pay on

[52:51] time and you provide like no problem to

[52:54] the other party, you are well above like

[52:57] the average person involved in the

[52:59] space. And that that that's again that's

[53:02] based on the advice I've gotten from

[53:04] people. Um I'm sure the other three

[53:07] people here can provide more context of

[53:09] something like that. But uh the barrier

[53:11] of entry seems to be especially if you

[53:14] have access lower than what it what it

[53:16] seems to be to take that next step. Um

[53:18] China, did you want to add something?

[53:21] >> No, I'm good. I think these guys hit it

[53:24] pretty pretty right. I mean, that's the

[53:26] the one thing I think Kenishh said was,

[53:27] "Yeah, it's just when you get past that

[53:30] circle of trust, you just got to tiptoe

[53:32] and make sure you know you you dot all

[53:35] your eyes and cross all your tees or

[53:37] you're you're going to you're in for a

[53:38] rude awakening if you're not cognizant

[53:41] of who you're dealing with and what

[53:43] they're up to."

[53:45] >> Yeah. And you're pro listen like

[53:46] everybody's going to get burned at some

[53:47] point. You know what I'm saying? So, but

[53:49] you got to make sure that you're not

[53:51] like cuz I I I can tell by the end

[53:53] there. It's like, oh, now I'm having

[53:55] trouble getting down or I'm not like I'm

[53:57] kind of The other thing could be I don't

[54:00] f find the next thing. You know what I'm

[54:01] saying? If maybe sports betting is not

[54:04] the, you know, like the the next thing.

[54:06] Find kind of the next, you know, like

[54:07] the like outside of this this web to

[54:10] kind of get into if you've kind of

[54:11] maximized what you have. But the the as

[54:14] you said the the wider the net gets the

[54:16] more risk you're going to have to one be

[54:19] willing to take where now if if I'm a

[54:21] you know if you're a top down guy or

[54:23] you're promo or you're arbing promos or

[54:25] you're arbing in just in general the

[54:27] risk is almost zero you know like you

[54:29] know you're going to win the next levels

[54:32] have much more risk where accounts from

[54:34] people I don't know that well getting

[54:36] filling bets from people that may or may

[54:38] not win. Um, and so you just got to be

[54:40] in the right position to take that risk

[54:42] and not you cannot have the same mindset

[54:46] when you're arbing and doing promos

[54:49] risk-wise as when you start doing some

[54:52] of this next level stuff because the

[54:53] stuff you were doing is guaranteed to

[54:56] win and the stuff you'd be doing now no

[54:59] longer has that guarantee. And like

[55:01] things if you're not, you know, risk

[55:03] adjusted, it can go south quickly. I've

[55:05] seen it go south on some on some people

[55:07] maybe even some people that have been on

[55:09] Circles Off before that

[55:11] uh you know some interviews in the past.

[55:14] So

[55:15] >> you'll never be able to find them. So

[55:17] >> Oh yeah, right. that may not be you may

[55:19] or may not be up anymore.

[55:20] >> Don't worry about it. You won't be able

[55:21] to watch that one. So uh

[55:22] >> but that's that's a great like Yes,

[55:25] you're right. You're right though. uh

[55:26] you can have uh a glowing reputation

[55:30] enough that it it is convincing that

[55:33] other people want to provide you the

[55:36] platform to extend that reputation even

[55:39] further and then it could all turn on

[55:41] you very quickly and it could all

[55:42] spiral. Uh maybe that's that's the

[55:44] lesson to get out of it. So again the

[55:46] risk involved with it but hopefully some

[55:48] good advice to to you watching anybody

[55:50] maybe could take that advice that is

[55:51] build today.

[55:53] >> Build slow. That's it. Yeah,

[55:56] >> there you go. Uh, we're going to move on

[55:57] with the show. If you're enjoying so

[55:59] far, got some value maybe out of that

[56:01] conversation or any other conversation

[56:02] we've had so far, make sure you hit the

[56:04] like button. Make sure you're subscribed

[56:05] to the channel. Keep up to date with our

[56:07] content. And if you're listening audio

[56:09] form, maybe follow us and rate and

[56:10] review five stars. Here's the next topic

[56:12] on the show. Uh, Vice, the popular media

[56:15] network had a I guess video or

[56:19] documentary, a short documentary that

[56:21] came out about sports betting. and some

[56:22] of the friends of the show featured

[56:24] Chris Dearkiss at Philip No Light on

[56:26] Twitter used to be uh the one of the

[56:28] panelists here on a weekly basis as well

[56:30] as Isaac Rose Burman who you sometimes

[56:33] see featured as the fourth chair for

[56:35] this show on Friday. Uh a lot of people

[56:37] had some memes about it. El Mastro 999

[56:40] Louie on Twitter. Uh he posted this

[56:43] video of Flopup saying the the sports

[56:46] books have it wrong and it's when his

[56:48] screen lights up and he says he he says

[56:50] as his odd screen flashes pretty color

[56:53] as Fluff rushes to go bet something. Um

[56:56] we had Captain Jack who commented on the

[56:59] video says as always YouTube comments

[57:01] make Twitter look like a messa meeting.

[57:03] Here are some from the last 24 hours of

[57:05] the trailer for the new Vice documentary

[57:06] that features Fluff, Rufus, and Isaac.

[57:09] I'll read the comments here. Uh, they

[57:11] they'll all be broke. It's just a matter

[57:13] of time. My suggestion, learn how to

[57:15] trade. Thousands of people are making a

[57:17] ton of money. Gamblers always lose in

[57:19] the end. Figure out price action,

[57:21] anything, and look into trend following.

[57:23] You're welcome.

[57:24] >> So, so literally describing how to be a

[57:27] profitable sports better.

[57:29] Uh for some the same thing.

[57:32] >> Uh next one. All of these guys are

[57:34] actors. This is all fake. And another

[57:37] one here. You have to realize the whole

[57:38] betting market would fall apart if

[57:40] people actually won more than they lost.

[57:42] House always win wins or there is no

[57:45] house. So you are presented with quote

[57:47] unquote unicorns that seemingly win

[57:50] against the odds. Don't trust any of it

[57:52] until you see the receipts receipts

[57:54] either. Uh I've seen some of the

[57:56] receipts. I can assure you these guys

[57:58] are not actors and they're not uh uh and

[58:01] you can you can trust the individuals

[58:04] within this show, but I I did find that

[58:06] quite funny. Uh Fosen posted this one of

[58:08] Flopup uh says, "Always know your

[58:10] counterparty. I prefer to bet against

[58:12] people like Flopup who in his own words

[58:14] says, "I can't even count." Cuz Fluff

[58:16] was saying there's 30 40 college

[58:18] basketball games I can't even count. I

[58:19] gotta say, Fosen, to be the level of

[58:22] troll that you are and not be able to

[58:24] successfully get a a properly cropped

[58:27] video clip of this of this YouTube

[58:30] video, it it does kind of sour me on the

[58:32] reputation a little bit because this is

[58:34] this is like Jimmy Johnson type of stuff

[58:36] right here.

[58:37] >> And finally, Mike Vivian. Um, one of the

[58:41] quotes from the the trailer, uh, Isaac

[58:44] Rose Berman, unlike Chris,

[58:47] he specializes in bedding. Uh, that was

[58:50] a really good one as well. Uh, in in

[58:51] more seriousness though. Uh, I'll start

[58:54] with you, Mike, on this. Did you check

[58:55] out the video? If if so, what are your

[58:57] thoughts?

[58:58] >> Uh, I want to compliment whoever did the

[59:00] sound mixing on that video. It was

[59:02] really great job there. say it. Uh I

[59:04] could kind of hear the narrator speak

[59:05] sometimes when he was talking about it,

[59:07] but uh I watched the first 8minute

[59:09] preview. I think that there's a longer

[59:10] version coming out later. I thought it

[59:13] looked relatively decent. Uh covered,

[59:15] you know, if I was a normie who didn't

[59:18] know anything about sports betting.

[59:19] Thought it did a pretty good job of

[59:21] >> highlighting some of the kind of

[59:23] situations they come in. I don't know.

[59:24] Seemed like a pretty well done

[59:26] documentary. Uh when usually these

[59:28] things are pretty, you know, dull [ __ ]

[59:30] So thought they did a decent job. Can I

[59:32] something to add?

[59:35] It's amazing that Isaac

[59:39] was basically the in terms of being a

[59:42] young media [ __ ] like the the Roffus

[59:45] and now they're doing a documentary

[59:47] together where it's like you know

[59:49] everybody you know in the sharp industry

[59:50] move in the shadows keep a low profile

[59:52] and Roffus you know back in the day in

[59:54] the Las Vegas Journal was the first one

[59:57] that was like oh yeah I'll do you bro

[59:59] and then Isaac like you know is like go

[60:02] follow in his footsteps like I'm going

[60:03] to go on Fox and friends and talk about

[60:05] responsible gaming. Meanwhile, I'm on

[60:07] Telegram, you know, asking Kesh to to

[60:10] have me put down a 30 leg round robin

[60:12] on, you know,

[60:14] >> climbing a tree out of state to get on a

[60:16] random person's Wi-Fi to get it better

[60:18] than he

[60:19] >> But you got to responsibly game. So,

[60:21] just amazing that him and Rufus are now

[60:24] doing a documentary together. I feel

[60:26] like uh everything has come full circle.

[60:29] >> Isaac is like Dr. Jackekal and Mr. Hyde

[60:31] with the responsible gaming stuff. I

[60:33] swear.

[60:34] >> No, no, ser like right. Like if you

[60:36] actually spent a day like betting with

[60:37] him, you'd be like this is this guy's

[60:39] bigger. Like what do you responsible

[60:41] gaming? Like

[60:42] >> he he told me one time 160. He goes if

[60:45] it's 160 to1 and I could kind of see it

[60:48] happening. There's literally no way it

[60:49] can be a bad bet.

[60:53] >> Uh China over to you. Any thoughts from

[60:55] yourself? Yeah, like when this got

[60:58] linked in our um our chat like I I was

[61:01] just expecting like you know Fezzic V

[61:04] Vegas Dave something like that. It feels

[61:06] like every time there's one of these

[61:08] documentaries it's like just out of this

[61:11] world in like stuff that just doesn't

[61:13] happen. The one with like uh who was it

[61:16] with crack on it? Um the one Yeah, that

[61:19] had Vegas Dave. But anyhow uh yeah it

[61:21] was a pleasant surprise. You got three

[61:22] solid pros, all who win and who all can

[61:25] speak, you know, pretty eloquently on

[61:27] how things actually work in this

[61:29] industry.

[61:30] >> I can speak eloquently. Flop is going to

[61:32] stutter halfway through. I Well, they

[61:34] can edit around the stutter. Never mind.

[61:36] Good point, China.

[61:37] >> Yeah, they they can provide provide the

[61:39] media magic except for maybe some of the

[61:41] audio as we discussed already. Um, a bit

[61:45] rough on occasion. We we don't do it

[61:47] like that here most of the time on

[61:48] Circle Back, but uh we'll keep the show

[61:50] moving here. Before we do, a word about

[61:53] the Discord we have at the Hammer

[61:56] Betting Network. If you're not in the

[61:57] Discord yet, you are missing out. We

[61:59] have over 1,700 members and it's

[62:01] absolutely cooking. It's a place to chat

[62:03] during games and our creators are

[62:04] sharing banger bets. And you know what?

[62:06] So are our Hammer audience. We're going

[62:08] to give them a little bit of credit as

[62:10] well. Join us at discord.gg/hammer

[62:12] GG/hammer

[62:14] to find out what you've been missing out

[62:15] on. discord.gg/hammer, but I'll make it

[62:18] easy for you. The link is in the

[62:19] description to join our Discord today.

[62:22] Couple more topics on the show here.

[62:24] First of those two comes from Grayson

[62:25] Roberts at Trident_DFS.

[62:28] Quote, "Sports betting isn't fun

[62:30] anymore." End quote. Meanwhile, you're

[62:34] just a loser who doesn't know the math

[62:36] behind how to win. uh very

[62:41] very big statement about sports betting.

[62:43] Uh China, you're interested in this

[62:44] topic. What did you want to say about

[62:46] it?

[62:47] >> I mean, I think it's the complete

[62:49] opposite. Sports betting was more fun

[62:51] when I didn't know the math behind it.

[62:54] >> The more you learn the math, the more

[62:56] work it becomes and just it just becomes

[62:58] boring and it becomes a a task day after

[63:01] day after day. I mean, it's fun to

[63:03] uncover things with the math here and

[63:05] there, but for the most part, like I

[63:07] mean, it's a it's it's it's a grind

[63:09] grind grind grind grind game. So, that's

[63:12] that's what I got on this topic.

[63:14] >> Kenishh, how about you? The most fun I

[63:16] ever had betting in my life was when you

[63:19] know I before when I was pretty much

[63:21] flat broke and you're going it's like

[63:23] walking in the casino with your boys

[63:25] when you're 21 and maybe your checking's

[63:27] got 300 in it and you're walking in the

[63:29] casino with 280 just you know enough to

[63:31] get you know maybe a $5 pizza afterward.

[63:34] That was when you know like when the

[63:36] sweat and everything like meant so much.

[63:40] nowaday. I mean, I got to a point, I

[63:42] mean, the the famous story I always tell

[63:44] was I was like watching a college

[63:47] basketball game on ESPN Plus. It was

[63:50] like Norfolk State or something. I was

[63:52] getting so triggered watching this

[63:53] stupid game because then I was like, I'm

[63:55] never [ __ ] watching another college

[63:56] basketball game again. And so I the more

[63:59] it like it becomes a business, the less

[64:04] fun like real fun you're going to have.

[64:06] and certain like there's also a certain

[64:08] not to sound like a douche but like when

[64:11] you sit hit a certain level all of a

[64:15] sudden then you know like when I when

[64:17] you're walking in the casino when you

[64:18] only got a few hundred bucks to your

[64:19] name that you're you're literally like

[64:21] putting like 50% 80% of your net worth

[64:24] on the line when you're you know what

[64:27] like now

[64:31] the bets I'm making are such like a you

[64:33] know a small denominator of like your

[64:35] your overall that that it's like it's

[64:38] not getting uh you know, it doesn't even

[64:39] get you out of like out of bed or like

[64:41] even like a heart flutter or any of

[64:42] that. So, I I I just totally disagree

[64:46] with that. I mean, maybe at first when

[64:47] you realize kind of how to win, you'd be

[64:49] like, "Oh, now now I'm going to get it."

[64:51] But the longer it goes on, the less like

[64:55] Yeah, it just doesn't it doesn't have

[64:56] the same

[64:58] It can't it can't, right? like it can't

[65:01] like when your when your account is on

[65:03] the line and you're that young, it's

[65:05] never going to mean as much to you that

[65:07] as it it would now.

[65:09] >> The the feeling of there's no way X team

[65:13] is going to beat Y team and betting on Y

[65:16] team and having your opinion reaffirmed

[65:18] that there there's there's not quite

[65:19] many rushes as good as that. I think

[65:21] adrenaline shots like that. So, I I can

[65:24] attest to that part of it. Mike, do you

[65:25] want to add something to this?

[65:27] This guy doesn't give a [ __ ] about any

[65:30] of like, oh, you know, this is what

[65:31] makes it fun. Math what makes it. This

[65:33] guy just wants to show I'm smart. I

[65:36] understand math. You dummies don't.

[65:38] That's why you need to buy my dub club.

[65:40] I'm guessing I like this is a classic

[65:42] like, oh, it's math is what makes like

[65:45] you're only saying that to try to impe

[65:46] to people that you are smart and that

[65:48] you understand the math. Um, I will say

[65:51] like there are times that you find an

[65:53] edge and you are like exploring it.

[65:55] you're like, "Oh, this is really

[65:56] exciting." But like that has nothing to

[65:59] do when you're actually watching the

[66:00] games, knowing the math isn't any

[66:02] different. You still go on a ton of

[66:04] [ __ ] losing streaks when you know the

[66:05] math. It doesn't change that kind of

[66:08] like your day-to-day variance.

[66:10] >> My favorite guys, the favorite bets that

[66:13] I make nowadays are the game like I, you

[66:17] know, move for a bunch of people. So

[66:18] those aren't like my, you know, my own

[66:21] opinions. The favorite bets that I make

[66:23] are the games where like it could be a

[66:26] college football Saturday or an NFL

[66:28] Sunday morning and I'm just gonna you

[66:31] know what I think the Dolphins are live

[66:34] today and I'm going to throw and I

[66:36] didn't ask anybody about that and I

[66:38] didn't say anything so I'm going to

[66:39] throw a nickel or a dime on the Dolphins

[66:42] or something money line and that was

[66:44] Joey Kay's opinion and Joey Kay's brain

[66:47] that probably was wrong but boom Boom.

[66:51] That then it's like as you're saying,

[66:53] Jacob, you after that, you know, if the

[66:55] Dolphins win, you're like, "Yeah, baby.

[66:58] I still got it." You know what I'm

[67:00] saying? Like, I'm feeling good. You're

[67:01] walking around, hey, you know, with your

[67:03] shoulders popping, head held high. When

[67:05] when you originated it, it feels uh it

[67:08] feels a little different.

[67:09] >> Yeah.

[67:11] >> Go ahead.

[67:11] >> Yeah. the the most fun I that that I had

[67:14] betting. I mean, it's the most fun and

[67:16] the most misery was when I would go out

[67:18] Friday night. I'd black out and just

[67:21] call in action point wagers for the

[67:24] absolute ma the absolute max this guy

[67:27] would take. I would stay up all day

[67:28] Saturday, watch the games, and then call

[67:31] the guy on Monday morning and say, you

[67:33] know, what what what do you have for a

[67:35] figure for the week? And he'd say, you

[67:36] know, like 25. And I wouldn't know if it

[67:38] was 2500 or 25,000. like that that that

[67:42] was fun. It was miserable sometimes, but

[67:45] that's when that's when it was really

[67:47] live, you know.

[67:48] >> You should promote that. This is so much

[67:50] fun, guys. You you got to try it, man.

[67:53] >> Hey, you got to start somewhere. You got

[67:55] to fall down before you stand up.

[67:57] >> Sure. That's that's fair. I as much as

[67:59] it was fun, you know, betting opinion

[68:01] like that, it is it is I think even more

[68:03] fun when you're actually winning. And

[68:05] you know when you really grind out and

[68:07] you find an when you really grind and

[68:09] originate edge that is pretty fulfilling

[68:11] and that is pretty fun. Uh as much as it

[68:13] was fun to just you know look at a a box

[68:15] score for for a minute and make a bet

[68:17] that the making money aspect of it is

[68:20] far superior. And Mike you are correct.

[68:23] There is a link in his bio to his

[68:25] website which has multiple links to his

[68:27] dub club. You are

[68:28] >> there you go

[68:28] >> with that assessment. Final topic on the

[68:31] show today comes from Dave Mason of Bet

[68:33] Online. Says, "Our first official bet to

[68:36] win the 2027 Super Bowl, $200 on the

[68:39] Chargers at 16 to1." Uh, I I got to ask

[68:42] Jeff if this was his uh PS. Before

[68:45] anyone whines, OMG, why would you tie up

[68:47] your money this early and give them an

[68:48] interest free loan? Patriots were 80

[68:51] between 80 to1 and 100 to1 this time

[68:54] last year. So, so I consider Dave Mason

[68:56] and Bet Online the he is the king of

[68:59] these long-term bets. Like the amount of

[69:01] wagers you can find on Bet Online that

[69:04] can tie up your money for years. Like

[69:06] some stuff is like will aliens visit

[69:08] Earth before 2028. Like you can bet that

[69:12] you're probably going to win, but you

[69:14] got to wait a long time in order to to

[69:16] see those funds actually return back

[69:18] into your account. This is not an a

[69:20] scenario where like you're probably to

[69:21] probably gonna win, but you are tying up

[69:23] that money for a very long time. Uh

[69:25] let's start with Mike on this one. How

[69:28] do you feel about these super long-term

[69:30] wages? Because in the past, some people

[69:32] have thought like even if it's plus EV,

[69:35] it's almost minus EV to have the funds

[69:37] tied up for that long. So to make it

[69:40] worth it, you essentially have to, you

[69:43] know, incorporate some kind of time

[69:45] value of money uh factor into it, which

[69:47] would be the interest rate would be an

[69:49] easy example of it. You know, if it's

[69:51] going, if you can earn 4% in interest or

[69:53] a year, it makes no sense to make a bet

[69:55] that's, you know, expected edge 4%

[69:57] because you could have made that. Uh at

[69:59] the same time, a lot of these longer

[70:00] shot ones, I believe people probably

[70:03] underrate how good of an edge that you

[70:05] can find in these because they're so far

[70:07] away. it's mostly fish and there's a lot

[70:09] of people who don't want to tie up the

[70:11] capital. When there's people who don't

[70:12] want to tie up the capital, you have

[70:14] probably a better opportunity uh because

[70:16] there's less sharps going at it. So, um

[70:18] you know, especially if you are a casual

[70:20] better, I think that these futures are a

[70:23] good opportunity to have a brooding

[70:25] interest for the entire year, not burned

[70:26] a ton of, you know, juice or whatever.

[70:29] Um kind of cheering for each thing. So,

[70:31] I I'm actually probably more for this uh

[70:34] than a lot of people.

[70:35] >> Okay, interesting take there. Uh

[70:37] Kenishh, what do you think?

[70:39] >> I'm okay with tying up the capital. Um

[70:42] and again, every everybody's situation

[70:44] is different with that. I will say and

[70:46] Jacob to f number one, I love Dave Bet

[70:49] online, been good to me over the years,

[70:51] all that in terms of their strategy, and

[70:54] this will be a little behind the

[70:55] curtain. They do put a lot of stuff out

[70:58] there at what I'll call higher hold. So,

[71:03] they're very good with like opening up

[71:06] long-term futures way way out. But if

[71:09] you compare the pricing usually to some

[71:13] different places, whether it be

[71:14] prediction market like Kelsey ones they

[71:16] put up or whether it be um some you know

[71:19] other books and that they tend to put a

[71:23] pretty high hold in these futures,

[71:26] especially like Super Bowl and that and

[71:29] maybe and you know and you can say hey

[71:31] if you're going to be first to market

[71:32] you deserve that but I think in a lot of

[71:34] cases

[71:36] like people might see the

[71:39] the team that they want to bet. And some

[71:42] like this is really in the weeds, but

[71:44] some other books like to start will open

[71:47] the Super Bowl and then slowly as the

[71:50] season gets closer decrease the hold

[71:54] percentage out of the pool. So, so you

[71:57] don't want to get beat early, but you

[71:59] might be getting a better price closer

[72:02] to the season or once more options are

[72:04] up. So there might be the occasional

[72:06] like, oh, this number's way off. I just

[72:09] don't think Super Bowl is usually that

[72:12] type of bet.

[72:14] >> Okay. What's that little snowman

[72:16] character you've got with you now?

[72:17] >> A little bit. Oh, yeah. I was going to

[72:19] say uh a little uh you know, like some

[72:21] guy here at Joey Corporate made fidget

[72:27] out of 3D printer and brought them out

[72:29] and handed them out. So yeah, I got uh

[72:31] you know, a little frosty here. What do

[72:33] you got there, China?

[72:35] >> I got a wizard. He's been with me. He's

[72:37] been with me for the past like 16 years.

[72:40] He sits here. He's my companion.

[72:44] >> Uh I I can't say I have any uh

[72:46] companions on my desk. Mike, how about

[72:47] you?

[72:48] >> No, I'm an adult male, so I don't keep

[72:50] her off.

[72:51] >> I've got a lot of [ __ ] behind me, but

[72:53] nothing on my desk.

[72:56] >> Jesus. Jesus is with me, too,

[72:59] to uh you know, every to stay with me. I

[73:02] got the there's some other crap over

[73:03] there, too.

[73:04] >> Uh, China, back back on the rails here.

[73:07] How do you feel about tying up capital

[73:08] for an extensive period of time like

[73:10] this?

[73:10] >> It's Hey, if you're a wreck, like uh

[73:13] Mike said, it's Yeah, it's fun to sweat.

[73:16] It's fine. Not for me, though. I don't

[73:18] like to just lock up capital. Not

[73:20] because I could invest it somewhere else

[73:23] or use it another way. For me, it's more

[73:25] of just mental torture knowing that I'm

[73:27] going to be sweating these bets and then

[73:30] remembering where the money is and in

[73:32] what accounts they're in. And it just

[73:34] sits there all year long. And it just

[73:36] gives you another thing to think about.

[73:38] Well, you know, you have other tasks

[73:41] going on. And you know, if you're very

[73:43] busy with whatever you're doing, whether

[73:45] it's betting or anything in life, I

[73:47] don't know, like I just don't like to

[73:50] put put my It's just one thing that my

[73:52] brain does not want to follow.

[73:54] >> Yeah. To China's point there, I have put

[73:57] money in things that I knew were, you

[73:58] know, good bets and then afterwards I

[74:00] needed to like move money around

[74:01] somewhere and I was like, God, it's just

[74:02] a pain in the ass that this is sitting

[74:04] in there. Um, and you know, sometimes it

[74:06] can become a hassle. I would say if

[74:08] you're going to do it, do it in spots

[74:09] where you know that you're going to make

[74:12] a sizable position. Don't make it a

[74:14] thing where you're like, hey, you know,

[74:15] it's slightly plus EV, a small little

[74:17] bet that doesn't mean anything to you

[74:18] because then it becomes just a pain to

[74:21] have there.

[74:21] >> Yeah. I I've always kind of felt like

[74:23] I'd rather have to I I'd rather be able

[74:26] to use that money to bet every day

[74:28] leading up into that maybe rather than

[74:30] having that sitting as a future. But

[74:32] also, I would seriously hate to turn

[74:35] down a plus EV position, even if it is a

[74:38] year away. So, that's where I always

[74:39] kind of fail. I in my head, I'm like,

[74:41] don't do this. You like use that to

[74:43] continue vetting and then I'm not going

[74:45] to turn down this. So, make that plus 80

[74:48] position worthwhile if you're going to

[74:49] wait for it. I I agree with Mike.

[74:51] >> Yeah. And don't China.

[74:52] >> Yeah. Don't. And definitely do not do

[74:55] this with PPH accounts because if you're

[74:59] a winning bet, they're gonna get cooked

[75:01] and they're just gonna get fried. And 99

[75:04] times out of 100, they're just going to

[75:06] void it or they're going to free roll

[75:07] you. I had Biden to beat Trump in that

[75:11] the the election that Biden beat Trump

[75:13] in

[75:13] >> 2020.

[75:14] >> And it it probably costed me like 20,000

[75:17] in futures in PPH accounts because I

[75:19] didn't realize it was going to take that

[75:21] long to settle. But by the time those

[75:23] four the four weeks went by, all the

[75:25] bowl games, we cooked the bowl games and

[75:27] then all my accounts were cooked, all

[75:29] the money got stolen, and it was just

[75:30] [ __ ] you, China. You ain't getting [ __ ]

[75:32] So

[75:33] >> that's a very good point. Very good

[75:35] point actually to to end off.

[75:37] >> China could have had the pending balance

[75:38] if Mike Pence would have done the right

[75:39] thing.

[75:43] >> All right, that'll do it for us today on

[75:45] Circle Back. If you did enjoy, please

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