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[00:37] a point shaving scandal popping up in

[00:39] early 2026, two sports books going at

[00:43] each other on social media, and a whole

[00:45] lot more coming at you today on Circle

[00:47] Back here on the Circles Off channel,

[00:49] which is part of the Hammer Betting

[00:50] Network and presented by Cali. the show

[00:52] where we cover the latest and greatest

[00:54] news that comes from gambling Twitter.

[00:56] And sometimes that can be gambling as a

[00:58] whole, which you'll see in a second with

[00:59] our first topic, and we're doing it with

[01:02] your Friday crew. I'm your host here on

[01:04] Circle Back, whether it's Monday at 1

[01:05] p.m. Live or the pre-recorded Friday 8

[01:08] a.m. version. My name is Jacob Man. I am

[01:09] a creator and producer here at the

[01:11] Hammer Betting Network. Here's who we

[01:13] have today in the bottom left corner of

[01:15] the screen. It is Mike aka Mr. Peanut

[01:18] Better on Twitter. In the bottom right,

[01:21] we have Joey Kesh, co-host on Hit the

[01:23] Books, which is the Hammer's NCAA

[01:25] content division. And in the top right,

[01:28] joining us as our fourth for today is

[01:30] Porter of BA Analytics. Porter, how are

[01:33] you doing today? How you feeling ahead

[01:35] of uh these topics we got loaded?

[01:37] >> I'm doing good. I'm doing good. I think

[01:39] I got lucky to be on an episode with the

[01:41] biggest sports scandal since, I don't

[01:43] know, 1994 or Tim Donahghue.

[01:46] >> Uh it's it's potential that that is the

[01:48] case. the 1994 scandal in reference is

[01:51] the Arizona State point shaving scandal

[01:53] with players like Hedig Smith and Isaac

[01:56] Burton. But this one, another one has

[01:58] popped up here to start 2026 as I

[02:01] mentioned. So, let's break down what is

[02:03] going on here. Pat Ford on Twitter by

[02:06] Pat Ford said, "Breaking federal

[02:08] investigators today are following sports

[02:09] bribery and wire fraud charges against

[02:12] 20 people in relation to game fixing,

[02:14] point shaving, and performance

[02:16] manipulation in college basketball.

[02:17] Among them are gamblers Shane Hennon,

[02:20] Marvis Fairley, and several former

[02:23] players. And just to kind of go through

[02:24] here, this is alleged to have been

[02:26] involved in China's CBA and NCAA

[02:29] Division One games. Former NBA player

[02:32] Antonio Blakey was also one of the

[02:34] player one of the people charged

[02:36] alleging he had both participated in the

[02:38] scheme and also afterwards helped

[02:41] recruit others. This is a former Chicago

[02:43] Bulls player that we are talking about

[02:45] here. Lots of people involved. Players

[02:49] were reported receiving tens of

[02:51] thousands of dollars, but it is reported

[02:53] that there was 100 hundreds of thousands

[02:55] of dollars being bet into these markets,

[02:58] which we'll discuss how on earth you

[03:00] could even get that much down on markets

[03:02] like this. Pablo Tore provided an update

[03:05] here saying that Shane Heden tweeted or

[03:08] sorry texted a co- schemer quote nothing

[03:12] guaranteed in this world but death taxes

[03:15] and Chinese basketball. I really like

[03:17] that quote and wanted to feature it. And

[03:19] an old panelist here on the show Jeff

[03:21] Nadoo talked a lot about Shane Henning

[03:23] here. Suga Shane Hennon. This is the

[03:24] fourth time he's been involved in

[03:26] indictment in the last one and a half

[03:28] years. He was also involved in the one

[03:30] involving

[03:32] Chanty Bilips in the recent NBA scandal

[03:35] that went down a few months ago. So,

[03:37] lots of familiar faces, lots of new

[03:39] faces as well in this one, but pretty

[03:42] crazy story to kick us off here. Um, I

[03:44] want to go first of all to you, Kenish.

[03:47] Um, anybody I'm just wondering if

[03:49] there's anybody involved in this that

[03:51] when you see their name, does it like is

[03:53] it somebody you recognize?

[03:57] >> No. Well, I mean, I would I don't know

[04:00] if I don't know if I'd answer that. Uh,

[04:02] you know, either way, if you wanted me

[04:04] to give you another one. Um, fair

[04:06] enough.

[04:06] >> But,

[04:08] uh, I mean, I here's I'm I got a few

[04:12] takes on this. And the first one is

[04:16] this seems like something when you get

[04:19] it to this scale that it's generally

[04:22] impossible to get away with. like at

[04:25] some point the the investigation

[04:28] like when you're betting the amount of

[04:30] money that they were trying to get on

[04:32] certain games on Chinese basketball on

[04:35] NCAA extra games it's going like maybe I

[04:39] don't know 20 years ago it wouldn't have

[04:42] been it but like in today's environment

[04:44] when you've seen what would happen with

[04:46] like uh some of the player NBA player

[04:49] prop scandals and stuff I you're just

[04:53] like to get at this. My only theory on

[04:55] this is in the new political climate,

[05:01] maybe you've seen some of the stuff that

[05:03] happens, you know, on in the, you know,

[05:05] the prediction market realm,

[05:07] maybe people just thought that you like

[05:09] nobody can get like nothing's YOU CAN

[05:11] GET AWAY WITH it now. Um, but in like

[05:15] you have this level. I I think there's

[05:17] an interest there's something that grabs

[05:19] the headlines when it's sports betting

[05:22] and this type of like, you know, you

[05:24] kind of go back to the old school like

[05:25] the mafia people rigging games and

[05:27] stuff. It also fits the narrative that

[05:30] people love to do in the public right

[05:32] now of like the game was rigged, it was

[05:34] fixed. So, it's just one of those that

[05:37] gets so many eyeballs.

[05:40] Um, with that said,

[05:42] my last point would probably be

[05:45] there's a part of me that respects it.

[05:47] Like, I mean, there's a lot of things to

[05:49] be able to do it at this scale and make

[05:52] the logistics work. I don't think like

[05:55] I'm not saying you get away with it, but

[05:57] to do I mean, this it takes uh, you

[06:00] know, you got to be you got to be good

[06:02] at something in life. And so, uh, well,

[06:05] I'm I'll tip my cap.

[06:07] >> What is impressive? I I think what is

[06:09] impressive really impressive about this

[06:10] is the fact that know this is like

[06:12] Porter you mentioned the top before we

[06:14] start recording that like there was like

[06:15] $400,000

[06:17] involved in some of these markets. Uh

[06:18] before we go to you Porter I want to go

[06:20] to Mike. You were laughing a bit there.

[06:22] What would be the process of even

[06:24] getting down at this scale for events

[06:27] like this CBA and these lower scale

[06:29] division one basketball games?

[06:32] >> First I'd like to say with all the fancy

[06:34] SGPS I'm going to pull myself early. I

[06:37] want you to bet all the unders

[06:39] correlated throwing a first pitch in the

[06:40] ground. It's nice that we get back to

[06:42] the basics, the roots of rigging sports

[06:44] in this country, you know, back to the

[06:46] really rigging the actual event in

[06:48] place. Uh it's nice to see some old

[06:50] school still exist in this country, but

[06:52] uh to getting that down, it seems like,

[06:55] and I haven't read all the specifics of

[06:57] it or the details, but it seems like to

[06:59] me that this was the first, you know, I

[07:02] would say uh inside job that seemed to

[07:05] have some sophisticated actors behind

[07:07] the scene. Uh from what I read, it looks

[07:09] like there were some parlays and stuff

[07:11] involved in it. And they were doing it

[07:13] in a way beyond that wasn't like, you

[07:16] know, the Tim Donaghue just bet on the

[07:18] game for $20,000 to the World's Bookie

[07:21] and like make it as obvious as possible.

[07:23] This one looks like it had a level of

[07:24] sophistication, which probably is what

[07:26] allowed it to scale to the level it did

[07:28] before it got caught. So, I think this

[07:30] one is those other issues that we've

[07:33] seen so far. Don't get me wrong, you

[07:35] don't want guys pulling themselves

[07:36] early. It's obviously an issue for all

[07:38] those leagues if we have something like

[07:40] that, but this is the first one where

[07:42] it's like this could affect the future

[07:44] of the sport where if you have guys who

[07:46] are rigging games, that's way different

[07:48] to me in a way that like you know

[07:50] rigging a first pitch is not.

[07:53] >> Okay, interesting take there. So I I

[07:55] mentioned Porter the ASU example from

[07:57] 1994.

[07:59] In those examples, ASU were favored by

[08:02] let's say 11 points. They would still be

[08:04] winning a lot of these games, but the

[08:06] point shaving was they wouldn't be

[08:08] covering, and that's where the bets

[08:09] would come in. According to what we're

[08:12] hearing about this specific example

[08:13] here, they were targeting underdog teams

[08:17] and financially vulnerable players on

[08:19] these underdog teams. So, it was teams

[08:21] that were losing and the teammates were

[08:23] helping them lose by more. But you

[08:26] talked about the magnitude of event like

[08:27] this. So, why don't you just give us all

[08:28] of your thoughts, Porter?

[08:30] >> Yeah. So, I just want to hop on the Wow,

[08:34] that's some beautiful scaling looking at

[08:36] some of these numbers. You know, a lot

[08:38] of people joke they bet big, they do

[08:39] this, they do that. To figure out how to

[08:42] bet 400K on NCAB Extra's first half

[08:45] bets, that's that's something else.

[08:47] That's that's skills. So, like uh Mr.

[08:50] Peanut said, this is this is some

[08:52] sophistication.

[08:54] And you know, they keep talking about uh

[08:57] limiting props to really small bet

[08:59] sizes, you know, cuz you can rig it. But

[09:00] now what? Are we going to come to the

[09:02] forefront in society and say, "Well,

[09:04] that's it. We can't bet big on games.

[09:05] Even games are starting to be rigged." I

[09:07] I do want to point that some of these

[09:09] bets though, there were some spots where

[09:12] they were saying like $400,000 were bet.

[09:15] And you'll see a lot of content guys

[09:16] that don't really sports bet kind of

[09:18] misconstrue what that means. They

[09:20] weren't betting $400,000 on like minus

[09:23] 110. There were some spots on these bets

[09:25] where it's like first half the game was

[09:27] like minus7, but they were betting the

[09:29] money line. So they were betting like

[09:30] 400k to win 100k. So there is a little

[09:33] bit difference there. But overall like

[09:35] the scale and magnitude of this this

[09:38] should be one of the biggest stories

[09:40] that has been around in a long long

[09:43] time. And I'm sure we're going to hear a

[09:45] lot of the oh sports banning we got to

[09:48] ban it. like this is happening because

[09:50] betting is being allowed. Rest assured,

[09:52] those ASU, if you remember the story,

[09:54] they they were betting on not just like

[09:56] Vegas lines, they were betting with

[09:58] bookies and offshores. So, the only

[10:00] reason, it's a double-edged sword. The

[10:02] only reason you were able to get so much

[10:03] is they were also able to bet on legals,

[10:05] it seems. But that's how it got caught.

[10:08] It's very difficult to catch this

[10:10] magnitude, this amount of games if it's

[10:12] all being bet on bookies. So really like

[10:14] the scandals are being brought to the

[10:16] forefront cuz there's some good whatever

[10:19] they're doing on the back ends at these

[10:20] books and they were able to report it

[10:22] otherwise you would never have even

[10:23] known about it. So for all this let's

[10:25] ban it, let's limit this. If you this

[10:28] doesn't really get stopped by you know

[10:30] getting rid of these what are you going

[10:32] to do now? Get rid of these markets.

[10:34] They're now rigging real games. It's not

[10:35] just a guy throwing a pitch. So, I think

[10:39] like this will get some weird push of

[10:41] why sports betting again is bad. You

[10:43] know, you're going to get that like

[10:45] fervent right side trying to again be

[10:47] like, "Hey, look, they're cheating and

[10:49] you know, the audience that loves to

[10:50] claim games are rigged." But in reality,

[10:52] you're being protected by this coming to

[10:55] light. So, you know, for the audience, I

[10:58] mean, you're going to hear a ton of

[11:01] negativity out of this, but I don't

[11:03] think it's as bad as I mean, in terms of

[11:05] like for sports as people pretend it to

[11:08] be. It's just people that don't really

[11:09] understand how sports betting works.

[11:12] >> Okay. There's you you already answered I

[11:14] was going to ask a follow-up question on

[11:15] what the reaction is going to be to

[11:17] something like this. So, you already

[11:18] answered it there. Uh, let's go to

[11:21] condition. We'll go back on and I'll ask

[11:23] my follow-up question which is you know

[11:25] how are people going to treat this like

[11:27] is this going to require action? Do are

[11:29] people are going to claim it requires

[11:31] action but are you on the side with

[11:33] Porter where because we have regulation

[11:35] the where we can spot this a lot better

[11:37] than if we didn't.

[11:39] >> I'm on the side I'm worried that like

[11:41] the public political messaging is not

[11:44] going to be that. So, I agree with you

[11:47] that like 100% that the

[11:50] >> this getting caught is actually, you

[11:52] know, a positive, a good indicator, but

[11:54] I think you're going to have the public

[11:56] message be like games are fixed. Can't

[11:59] believe this. You'll have your people

[12:01] that are just in like if you're in the

[12:04] anti-ports betting camp, this is just,

[12:07] you know, CRACK FOR YOU. YOU'RE LIKE,

[12:09] "OH MY GOD, EVERYTHING'S TAINTED. This

[12:12] is bad." This is like Dustin Ger seeing

[12:14] a couch.

[12:15] >> Oh yeah, that's right. With he got that

[12:17] that that like you know what I'm saying

[12:18] where like if that's your bag or that's

[12:21] the narrative you want to push this is

[12:24] great. THIS IS LIKE OH MY GOD everything

[12:26] and so it escalates into a sense of like

[12:29] there's already a decent faction of

[12:34] sports betting is bad people out there

[12:36] and this then gets lamented into helping

[12:41] p like amplify those points around like

[12:44] well now the games are fixed now we

[12:45] can't trust the outcomes now we got

[12:47] college kids that are on that when in

[12:49] actuality

[12:51] again I'm biased the show's biased the

[12:54] people on this panel are biased. Do do I

[12:56] think there needs to be some drastic

[12:57] action taken to come out of this? No. If

[13:01] anything, as as Porter was saying, it

[13:03] kind of is like the system works, but I

[13:06] don't think that's how most people are

[13:07] going to see it.

[13:08] >> I mean I mean, think about this. From

[13:10] 1994 to 2007 between uh, you know, ASU

[13:13] and Tim Donahue, they they people really

[13:16] think there were zero fixed games,

[13:18] right? From 2007 until 2025,

[13:22] that's that's almost 20 years. There

[13:24] were no stories about this. Why do

[13:26] people think there were no stories?

[13:28] Because there are no regulatory bodies

[13:30] that were really looking at this. People

[13:31] are all betting offshore. People are all

[13:33] betting at books. But like said, none of

[13:35] that matters. This is crack for

[13:37] anti-gambling. This is going to be sin

[13:39] tax is fine. Gamblers, you know, that

[13:41] 90% tax, forget those people. This is

[13:43] just going to be used fuel for fire. it.

[13:46] I think it's interesting that the first

[13:49] scandals when we talk about MP or uh

[13:51] Porter Jr. and Rosier and the guys

[13:54] throwing the pitches, those you could

[13:56] say actually were a result of

[13:57] legalization. Those kind of SGP bets,

[14:00] you weren't really betting those

[14:01] offshore at uh bookies previously. This

[14:05] is going to be a situation where

[14:06] actually regulation has been good. this

[14:08] has been a chance where regulation helps

[14:10] catch the guys at harm. But because of

[14:13] the scale of it and because everybody's

[14:14] already made up their minds, it won't be

[14:16] perceived that way. So even though this

[14:19] is probably the worst example to point

[14:21] to regulation is bad, it will still be

[14:23] used because of the scale of it.

[14:25] >> Okay. So next question on this is in the

[14:28] case of Jonte Porter who you mentioned

[14:31] uh there Mike uh he was like mid mid six

[14:34] figs NBA contract there. He was playing

[14:37] like pretty well for the Raptors. I

[14:38] think he had a good chance to earn a

[14:40] guaranteed deal next season and if not

[14:41] with the Raptors somewhere else, like a

[14:43] million dollars plus in a contract. In

[14:44] those instances, you kind of think this

[14:47] guy threw away so much money. How could

[14:49] he be so stupid? In cases like this,

[14:51] these are often times financially

[14:54] troubled individuals.

[14:56] They're not getting paid to play at

[14:58] these lower tier schools. and the

[15:00] prospect of making 10 20 $30,000 which

[15:04] for numbers mentioned in some of the

[15:06] articles is a humongous deal that

[15:09] changes potentially their livelihood for

[15:11] the next couple years or for the

[15:12] duration of their stay in college. So

[15:14] what is there out there that is going to

[15:17] prevent these players from getting

[15:21] involved in something like this? Because

[15:23] in the NBA the financial gain is there

[15:25] to stay in the NBA college that doesn't

[15:27] exist. Uh, what do you think to that,

[15:29] Porter?

[15:30] >> I love that question. That's the classic

[15:32] like how do you fix a solution? And

[15:34] people hate it when they answer there is

[15:36] no there there's no fix. There is no fix

[15:38] to this stuff. But people and

[15:40] regulation, regulatory bodies,

[15:42] government officials, they love to say

[15:44] that they have the answer. So, this is

[15:46] like the go-to of like, hey, I got a

[15:49] solution for you. You don't like

[15:50] gambling, I'll fix it for you. Let's

[15:52] regulate this situation. I can fix the

[15:54] situation. But sometimes there really

[15:56] aren't too many fixes. You you can maybe

[15:59] like subdue this. Again, we kind of

[16:01] talked about what the fixes. Legalized

[16:03] betting fixes this because then there's

[16:05] reports on the back end. They send it to

[16:06] the FBI. The FBI figures out how

[16:10] find people after two and a half years

[16:12] pretending to build an investigation. I

[16:13] think is why it took so long. And then

[16:15] they say this is, you know, we caught

[16:18] this. Uh but I don't think there are

[16:20] great fixes. There are like bandaids

[16:22] that you can put. I I like I this is

[16:26] like the war on drugs like all over

[16:29] again where when you have a vice that is

[16:32] addictive and you have the opportunity

[16:35] to

[16:37] sell people that vice at a very low cost

[16:41] for sums of money. There is no amount of

[16:45] punishment or regulation you can dole

[16:47] out that will ever stop people on both

[16:49] sides of this from wanting their fix or

[16:52] for wanting their opportunity. That's

[16:54] just like livelihood. Like why do you

[16:56] think like selling like you know what

[16:59] I'm saying? Like if you can go outside

[17:00] people like there's been no matter the

[17:02] punishments there's always going to be

[17:04] people. I mean there's been prohibition

[17:05] in this country. There's been bans on

[17:07] we're before legalization was nobody

[17:09] betting around here like or is that a

[17:11] different there's just no that's not and

[17:15] everybody always wants to pour to say

[17:16] people want a solution people want to

[17:18] fix people want to promise at the end of

[17:21] the day when you have something that's

[17:23] very

[17:24] addictive that people want to do and and

[17:26] they have the opportunity to make a lot

[17:28] of money those things are always going

[17:30] to come together regardless of efforts

[17:34] it

[17:34] >> and to what Jacob said

[17:36] Michael Porter Jr. I will say that

[17:38] >> yes or sorry

[17:40] >> not Michael Porter Jr. that'd be a much

[17:42] bigger deal. Uh

[17:43] >> he had the opportunity cost of this NBA

[17:46] contract for these players. There is the

[17:48] opportunity cost of you go to jail for

[17:50] 10 years. I mean what's 10 years of your

[17:51] life worth if you have that?

[17:53] >> So I think it goes even beyond like

[17:55] >> we try to think very logically of why

[17:58] would you risk X for Y? It makes no

[18:00] sense to do that. But a lot of times

[18:01] like with Terry Rosier there was no

[18:03] reason to risk it there. You can't come

[18:05] up with a financial reason. Sometimes

[18:07] there's just people see an opportunity

[18:09] and they have to hit it. It's like, you

[18:10] know, in Rounders, Worm has to do

[18:13] whatever he has to do to [ __ ] cheat the

[18:15] game. It's like guys see a spot and they

[18:17] want to win on it. So, they're going to

[18:18] rig it even if it doesn't make sense for

[18:20] them. Uh, you know, with the risk at

[18:21] hand.

[18:22] >> So, to to just playing devil's advocate,

[18:26] uh, like to what Kenish was saying, the

[18:29] somebody's argument would be like then

[18:31] why does gambling need to exist? If we

[18:33] cannot prevent it, then should we not

[18:34] just get rid of it?

[18:35] >> And alcohol and drugs and you know,

[18:38] people drive and kill people also.

[18:41] >> It's Yeah, it's prohibition. Why can't

[18:43] we get rid of gambling? I mean, why

[18:44] can't we get rid of If we could get rid

[18:46] of heroin, that would be a great start,

[18:47] but we can't. So, like I there's no way.

[18:50] So, if you have to work within the

[18:52] restraints that you have as a society

[18:54] and we can't get rid of gambling,

[18:55] honestly, if we could, maybe it would be

[18:57] good overall, but that's not possible.

[18:59] So why don't you legalize it and uh you

[19:01] know regulate it to the best of your

[19:02] ability.

[19:03] >> Okay. Yeah. Yeah. And I think when you

[19:04] have people like, you know, we I like

[19:07] Forest's point of view there, you know,

[19:09] there wasn't a ton of public scandals

[19:11] for, you know, 15 years where it was

[19:13] everything was on, but if you dig into

[19:15] like things that were happening on the

[19:16] Challenger Tour in tennis or some of the

[19:19] things that didn't make it very

[19:21] mainstream, per se, where you had it's

[19:25] that exact scenario of you had people

[19:28] that were at the, you know, just

[19:30] grinding out there, you know, trying to

[19:33] survive

[19:34] And then if you get offered, I mean, if

[19:35] you're a challenger and you're making,

[19:37] you know, barely enough to go on like to

[19:40] go to your next events and you're

[19:42] getting up there in age and maybe the

[19:45] ATP money isn't coming. If someone comes

[19:47] to you with 30, 50, $100,000,

[19:51] I mean, that but that goes across every

[19:54] I mean, that it'd be the the return

[19:55] would be like, well, do we get rid of

[19:57] Challenger? Do we get rid of AAA

[19:58] baseball? do we get rid of any sport

[20:01] that's not it's like it's not feasible

[20:02] because all those things feed major

[20:05] sports. So even though this was

[20:07] happening in Chinese basketball and and

[20:09] like and like lower level NCAA, there's

[20:12] an ele like you can't just cut off the

[20:15] bottom or the middle tier leagues and

[20:18] only have the upper tier. Like it

[20:19] doesn't work like that. there has to be

[20:21] that opportunity to then like level up

[20:23] for people to even want to like

[20:25] financially participate in these things

[20:27] or for these things to even exist. So

[20:29] the same method applies where like you

[20:32] can't get rid of gambling, you just have

[20:33] to moderate it as well as possible. You

[20:36] can't get rid of like any league that's

[20:38] not the upper like a tier league and

[20:41] expect sports to still thrive and exist.

[20:44] >> Those have scandals anyway. How much do

[20:46] you guys think that this being CBB teams

[20:48] that nobody has heard of helps uh you

[20:51] know kind of reduce the noise on it as

[20:53] opposed to like if this happened to a

[20:55] team that somebody is going to see often

[20:57] it becomes so much bigger to me like if

[21:00] it happened to Arizona State like you

[21:01] mentioned or if it happened in college

[21:03] football it would be a crazy deal. How

[21:05] much do you think like maybe that this,

[21:07] you know, the case for it not being as

[21:09] big of a deal as we think at this point

[21:11] would be it's CBB teams that nobody ever

[21:14] watches, nobody cares. It kind of gets

[21:16] lost in the shuffle. Uh especially while

[21:18] we're in honestly like a busy sports

[21:19] season probably affects that sadly.

[21:24] >> What do you answer? I I don't have an

[21:26] answer. I was hoping one of you would

[21:27] answer

[21:27] >> and I would say

[21:30] it's I think my answer would be that

[21:35] I think in today's world where there's

[21:38] been this over the last year or so maybe

[21:40] in the last few years swoon of people

[21:44] like everything's fixed that this story

[21:47] now hits like a [ __ ] truck where when

[21:50] it comes out or you see it and it's like

[21:52] it it gravitates a lot more to like the

[21:56] public norm. And so maybe I don't know.

[21:59] I I I get what you're saying.

[22:00] >> I think this is the tip of the iceberg.

[22:02] This is we just got to be on an episode

[22:05] where we're real early. This is just the

[22:07] beginning. This is going to be a big

[22:09] deal.

[22:10] >> Okay. Interesting. Lots of differing

[22:11] opinions here. We'd love to hear your

[22:13] opinion. If you're watching right now,

[22:15] especially on YouTube, get to the

[22:17] YouTube comment section. Give your

[22:19] thoughts on this, your opinion on

[22:20] anything we've discussed so far on the

[22:22] show, anything we will discuss on the

[22:24] show today. We love to hear the

[22:25] feedback. We love to read the comments

[22:27] and love to engage with the audience.

[22:29] You can also hit us up on Twitter,

[22:31] circles offhq as well to jump in on some

[22:34] additional conversation. While you're

[22:36] down in the comment section on YouTube

[22:37] though, make sure you have hit the like

[22:38] button as a reminder and make sure

[22:40] you're subscribed to the channel as well

[22:41] for all the content we're pumping out

[22:42] here on circles off. All right, we're

[22:45] going to keep it moving on this show.

[22:47] We're going to talk about this celebrity

[22:48] partnership. Really switching gears to

[22:50] this topic here. Khi revealed that they

[22:53] have signed two-time major champion

[22:54] Bryson Desambo as the their first

[22:57] athlete and ambassador and they're going

[22:59] to be starting to integrate Koshi market

[23:01] to his audience of millions in an

[23:03] industry first partnership. So I imagine

[23:05] this will include the I mean we've we've

[23:08] seen markets involving him where he

[23:10] wants to break 60 or whatever on a

[23:13] public golf course or I don't know if

[23:15] this is going to be when he's trying to

[23:16] hit like a hole in one over his mansion

[23:18] something like that. lots of unique

[23:20] markets that could come out of something

[23:22] like this. And I guess it was only

[23:24] natural the progression here for a brand

[23:27] like Kali to get involved with celebrity

[23:29] endorsements. And it feels like, you

[23:30] know, speaking of tip the other, maybe

[23:31] this could be the start of something

[23:33] similar. Uh Mike, as someone who likes

[23:35] to dabble in these unique markets in

[23:38] things like this, do you feel like

[23:40] something like this is good for the

[23:41] industry?

[23:43] Uh yeah, I think if you were Koshi and

[23:46] you saw I saw I unfortunately got to it

[23:49] too late, but I saw there was like the

[23:50] Battle of the Sex's uh tennis match

[23:52] where it was uh curios

[23:55] >> uh whoever. And I like if you start to

[23:59] there's no reason that the only sporting

[24:00] events have to be the leagues that

[24:02] currently exist. And the reason that

[24:04] those are the case right now is because,

[24:06] you know, there's limited financial

[24:08] opportunity to have a one-time event

[24:10] that gets ended and it's a lot of setup

[24:12] and everything like that. If you have

[24:13] these big organizations that can get,

[24:15] you know, other means of financial gain

[24:18] from it rather than just putting it on

[24:20] one channel randomly where people have

[24:22] to hope to find it, maybe there's a

[24:24] chance that this starts to create more

[24:26] like peacemail random events that people

[24:29] kind of are sponsored by either

[24:31] prediction markets or gambling companies

[24:32] where they kind of like uh the match or

[24:34] whatever in golf where it's more Jake

[24:37] Paulification of these events where we

[24:39] get random things occurring because you

[24:42] know basically people want to their

[24:43] opinion in those situations rather than

[24:45] the NBA game on Tuesday. So, possibly

[24:47] that this is kind of the start of

[24:49] something where they kind of bring it to

[24:51] the forefront. Also, possible that

[24:54] nobody ends up betting it. It doesn't

[24:55] help at all. So, I think it could go

[24:57] like one of two ways. It could really be

[24:59] something that catches on or it could be

[25:01] uh you know, not a big deal in a year. I

[25:03] would sound like an idiot for saying

[25:04] that even.

[25:05] >> Okay. Interesting. Uh Kenish, do you

[25:07] what's your thoughts on this? I mean, I

[25:09] think the best way in like modern times

[25:12] to get any interest to your whatever

[25:14] you're doing, your event is like allow

[25:18] people to bet on it. Like when we were

[25:20] when I was, you know, when we were in

[25:22] COVID and I was doing push-ups on screen

[25:24] that I fell just short, what was the

[25:27] thing that people like really like drew

[25:28] that is that you could bet like a market

[25:31] was created. We were five YEARS AHEAD OF

[25:33] TIME. So now like in today's day and age

[25:37] >> we'd be on Kelsey this WOULD HAVE

[25:39] 100,000 IN volume and it's like there's

[25:41] this is the I mean like and it works too

[25:44] it's both it's like you rub each other's

[25:46] back right because on the shambo he's

[25:48] got a YouTube channel he's getting paid

[25:50] for the sponsorship it grows the brain

[25:52] it grows eyes and at the same time it

[25:54] get for like tells you like it gets

[25:56] market it gets people that so this

[25:58] seemed like this is like the era of you

[26:00] can bet on everything which I know

[26:02] there's people out there I don't know

[26:04] about that. But for I I don't know. I

[26:08] kind of lean into it. I love it. Uh and

[26:10] it definitely there's also

[26:13] like I think these are the and just even

[26:16] I've heard PB PB say this before. These

[26:18] are kind of the fun things to really dig

[26:21] into and have an opinion on, right?

[26:23] Where like I'm going to watch like

[26:25] Desambo's going to hit a drive over his

[26:27] house. I'm going to be on Google Earth

[26:29] seeing how big his house is, how high it

[26:31] is. you know that type of stuff that

[26:33] it's like it's more fun than like your I

[26:36] made a number for X college basketball

[26:38] game for the millionth time. It's got a

[26:40] little bit of a different flare variety

[26:41] to it that I think uh is fun.

[26:44] >> Keeps keeps the gears turning. Makes

[26:45] makes you think a little bit. You you

[26:47] mentioned something there with like the

[26:49] push-ups thing that I actually find

[26:50] really interesting because I remember I

[26:52] mean you go back a year to uh like when

[26:54] boxing was a huge thing on gambling

[26:56] Twitter. People were boxing each other.

[26:57] People were were betting on that. Even I

[26:59] think back to like the WPL event that

[27:02] Jeff Fineberg, Rob Pizzola, Andy Moler,

[27:04] the the the mini putt tournament they

[27:07] played against each other and like some

[27:09] of the issues with like just they just

[27:10] couldn't offer really heavy limits on

[27:12] that. Well, we could eliminate that by,

[27:14] you know, shifting things like this over

[27:16] to prediction markets. Maybe this will

[27:17] be the first of many. Uh, finally, over

[27:19] to you, Porter. Your thoughts on this?

[27:21] >> It's funny for the anti-bedding crowd.

[27:24] It's it's like betting gives you like an

[27:27] ability to not just say something, you

[27:29] know, in the air and you're just, you

[27:30] know, you have no like actual spine, no

[27:33] explanation for why something's

[27:35] happening. When you put money on

[27:36] something, it like fortifies your

[27:38] belief. So, it like allows you to

[27:40] express what you think about something

[27:42] monetarily, but it allows you to

[27:44] actually be adamant, to actually

[27:46] believe. So, I kind of think this is

[27:48] almost like a cheat code skipping what

[27:51] maybe like a 3x3 basketball league that

[27:53] spent millions of dollars or I forget

[27:55] the names of all these kind of leagues

[27:57] that are trying to like grow and create,

[27:59] >> right? Big three where here now it's

[28:02] kind of like you're giving people what

[28:03] they want almost instantaneously like

[28:05] the Kagos matchup or the, you know, the

[28:09] Jake Paul boxing. I know that's boxing,

[28:11] but it kind of all of a sudden allows

[28:13] kind of like a shortcut to try to bring

[28:15] forward stuff that's entertaining to the

[28:17] fans. So, there is an ability to now put

[28:20] opinions, how I like to say it, behind,

[28:23] you know, different types of sporting

[28:25] events that people enjoy watching. So,

[28:27] this is kind of taken it like a fast

[28:29] track on being able to enjoy more new

[28:31] things. And who knows, maybe that means

[28:34] other markets that have been

[28:35] traditionally big take a decline.

[28:37] Actually, maybe the pie can't really

[28:39] sustain growth. I know Calian and all

[28:42] these companies think it can. So, this

[28:44] will be interesting to see if a lot of

[28:45] new things pop up if it takes away from

[28:48] slice of something else.

[28:49] >> As always, if you do want to get

[28:50] involved with any markets that we bring

[28:52] up on the show or anything involved with

[28:55] Cal, you can do so by scanning the QR

[28:56] code on screen or by heading to the link

[28:59] in the description at any point during

[29:01] this episode of Circle Back. Once again,

[29:03] thank you so much to Cali for being the

[29:04] presenting sponsor here on the channel.

[29:07] We're going to move into the next

[29:08] conversation, which is on the fair play

[29:12] that Fanatics book offers and has really

[29:16] used this as a tool to try and go

[29:18] head-to-head with FanDuel on Twitter. I

[29:21] I I just find it so interesting that

[29:23] Sportsbook's social media teams are

[29:26] going at each other. It's mostly one

[29:27] side on the side of Fanatics because

[29:29] they offer their their fair play thing

[29:32] where if a player exits a game through

[29:34] injury, they will void your bet or I've

[29:38] seen books that refund it as a bonus

[29:40] bet. But FanDuel had something like this

[29:43] in place where the player injured in the

[29:46] first quarter of a football game, they

[29:47] would void the bet, but that's since

[29:50] gone away as we get into the NFL

[29:51] playoffs. So this is where Fanatics has

[29:53] been able to really attack them saying

[29:55] fair play activated honoring all player

[29:57] prop bets impacted by George KD's second

[29:59] quarter injury. Person like ghetto grank

[30:02] uh the Twitter account says FanDuel

[30:03] about to lose every customer after this

[30:05] and puts a tombstone with FanDuel bet

[30:08] protect 2025 to 2025. Um before I get

[30:12] your opinions I thought I could only

[30:15] laugh at Jared Smith who said this. Uh,

[30:18] here's the main issue I have with the

[30:19] bet protection crap that books are

[30:20] offering if the player gets hurt. You're

[30:22] enabling an entire generation of young

[30:23] gamblers to believe if something doesn't

[30:25] go your way, you will get bailed out.

[30:27] Essentially stripping them of any lesson

[30:29] in overcoming the random challenges and

[30:31] adversity life throws at you on a daily

[30:33] basis. Dan Abrams, who's been

[30:35] interviewed on this channel before,

[30:36] says, "Man, I wish Fand was around when

[30:38] I was under 21 and a half to teach me

[30:41] about adulting." So, I mean, Jared

[30:43] Smith, I think, makes I think the base

[30:46] of his point is good. I think the

[30:48] wording of it is not good. He says, "If

[30:50] you're wondering why testosterone levels

[30:52] in this country are dropping at an

[30:54] alarming rate and why men are too scared

[30:55] to go up to an Olympic war, this is the

[30:58] type of program that creates weak

[30:59] mindset." I mean,

[31:00] >> I went a little extreme.

[31:02] >> You think that that's a good take?

[31:03] That's your take is you think

[31:05] >> I think I think he's dropping. No, he's

[31:08] obviously gone to like an extreme level

[31:10] that is completely unnecessary, but uh I

[31:14] I think his take that the bet protection

[31:16] stuff is bad, that makes sense. The way

[31:19] he words it here and the way uh the way

[31:22] he frames it, uh obviously I personally

[31:25] do not agree with. But on the bet

[31:28] protection stuff that we have here, um I

[31:30] I find it interesting that FanDuel had

[31:33] rolled this out and are now scaling it

[31:36] back. Um, and I I just find it

[31:39] interesting that Fanatics is using this

[31:40] to target them and try to get away get

[31:43] customers away from them. So, um, I'll

[31:45] go to you, Kenish, first on this one.

[31:46] Again, I kind of want your your thoughts

[31:48] on whether you think this is providing a

[31:51] real meaningful piece of marketing for

[31:53] Fanatics. Do you think that there is a a

[31:55] noticeable uptick in customers because

[31:57] of this? So, I'll actually give the the

[31:59] Monday show two Monday show a little

[32:01] credit on that when they were discussing

[32:02] the uh the DraftKings thing with the

[32:05] pick six. There was the the implication

[32:09] that that if that happened to you,

[32:12] that's a deal breaker in terms of you

[32:14] ever using that book again, right? Like

[32:16] I'm done. I'm out. You're right anyway,

[32:18] right? Even if you didn't give my like

[32:20] that I'm never do working with that

[32:22] company again. This I don't think is the

[32:26] same level of like, oh, if FanDuel

[32:30] doesn't offer bet protection, am I not

[32:33] going to bet any, you know, like bet

[32:35] props there anymore? I will say and

[32:38] begrudgingly

[32:40] begrudgingly because of the the way

[32:42] Fanatics operates for the type of

[32:45] customer that they're actually trying to

[32:47] acquire which is like the squarest of

[32:49] the square.

[32:51] I guess it makes some sense from a but

[32:55] do I think this actually is going to

[32:56] have a ton of shift in terms of people

[32:58] like am I going to I mean just look at

[33:00] the the user experience on FanDuel

[33:03] versus Fanatics on the app, right? Like,

[33:05] am I gonna switch over if I'm only a one

[33:08] book guy because one place doesn't have

[33:11] bet protection? I don't know. I would

[33:13] need like a list of people like an

[33:15] example of like here's a thousand people

[33:17] that did it. I don't see it.

[33:20] >> Okay. How about you, Mike? What do you

[33:21] think?

[33:22] >> Yeah, I I have to agree with Jacob and

[33:24] Jared Smith that I think that prop bets

[33:26] in general maybe are ruining the

[33:28] testosterone in this country. back in

[33:30] the 90s you took a straight bet or you

[33:32] made maybe the total and even that was

[33:33] considered feminine back in my day but I

[33:36] think that in seriousness I mean the

[33:38] reason people don't want bet protect is

[33:40] because we want to receive slightly

[33:42] higher percentage of payout on a guy

[33:45] when they go over versus another time

[33:46] like this idea that there's some kind of

[33:48] moral reasoning behind it to me is

[33:51] insane but at the same time like I don't

[33:53] think honest I don't think it's

[33:55] something that if I was the leader say

[33:58] I'm FanDuel I would But if I was someone

[34:00] like Fanatics, you go ahead and take

[34:02] your shot here. Like this is your chance

[34:04] to acquire customers. You can't if you

[34:06] are in third place, you can't act like

[34:07] you're in first place. And Fanatics

[34:09] might be in fourth or fifth place. So

[34:10] like when you're behind like them, you

[34:12] need to take some shots here in order to

[34:14] try to get customers and build your base

[34:16] that way. You know, the UI that they

[34:17] have isn't going to improve unless they

[34:19] get customers. What's one way to get

[34:20] customers is by offering something

[34:22] FanDuel doesn't. So you have to offer

[34:24] something different if you're them. If

[34:25] you play the same game as FanDuel,

[34:27] you're going to lose essentially. So,

[34:29] uh, it's similar to like in college

[34:30] football, you know, why did Navy and

[34:32] Army run the triple option? Because they

[34:34] have to, and they can't run what

[34:36] Alabama's running because they'll get

[34:37] murdered by them. So, Fanatics, it makes

[34:39] sense. For FanDuel, it makes sense not

[34:41] to have it. Um, you know, I'm sure we'll

[34:43] see people go back and forth and argue

[34:45] about it, but the like the morality of

[34:47] it to me is insane. Like, we're talking

[34:48] about it's gambling. Like, we can chill

[34:51] out on the lessons for everyone.

[34:53] You're always good at finding metaphors.

[34:54] I like that one about RV army and navy

[34:57] against Alabama. Uh Porter, how about

[34:59] you? What are your thoughts?

[35:00] >> All right, I'm going to say some maybe

[35:02] like slightly contradictory takes cuz

[35:04] why not? Okay,

[35:05] >> so

[35:06] >> that's what you're hearing.

[35:06] >> Obviously, yeah, obviously Fanatics is

[35:09] spitting in their customer's face while

[35:10] the customer doesn't know that, hey,

[35:12] we're offering you this because we

[35:14] actually limit and ban everyone. But now

[35:16] I'm going to go to the other side. I

[35:17] think FanDuel started offering this and

[35:19] I'm just going to say from firsthand

[35:21] experience, FanDuel is limiting like

[35:23] crazy now, too. I hate this thing that's

[35:26] happening on a lot of shows where people

[35:27] keep talking about how good FanDuel is.

[35:30] And I can tell you it's not as good as

[35:31] it used to be. They're downtrending. And

[35:34] I actually think you're going to start

[35:37] seeing some impact from stuff like this.

[35:39] And I bet you we're going to have a

[35:40] trend, I don't know how long, five, six

[35:42] months from now, when a few more sharps,

[35:44] pseudo sharps, start realizing FanDuel

[35:47] is not as great as it used to be. Now,

[35:49] I'm not saying Fanatics is the solution

[35:50] cuz they're basically the worst there is

[35:52] out there. You can bet five bucks there

[35:54] if you know how to tie your shoe. So,

[35:55] it's like there's pros, but I think this

[35:59] story we're going to have on uh Circle

[36:01] Back sound a little bit different in six

[36:03] months from now.

[36:04] >> Okay. Interesting. I like the you you

[36:06] always bring contrarian takes which is

[36:08] uh you bring a different perspective to

[36:10] the show which uh which I always find

[36:11] interesting but I I think what Fanatics

[36:14] is doing that is success. I think this

[36:16] is really like

[36:18] as a marketing team th this has to be

[36:20] considered a success when you have your

[36:23] customers essentially beating your own

[36:25] drum for you where they are riding for

[36:27] you against FanDuel in in this instance

[36:30] like you know it's one thing for some

[36:33] sports books will just continue to big

[36:34] themselves up on social media but to

[36:36] have your customers do it for you that

[36:37] is something that is probably a lot more

[36:39] difficult to achieve and it's something

[36:41] that Fanatics is is able to do here

[36:44] whether that you know It's it's a good

[36:46] enough product that warrants that surely

[36:49] that's up for debate. But from a

[36:50] marketing stance, it has to be

[36:52] considered a success.

[36:53] >> Mr. Peanut Butter covered it pretty

[36:55] well. But behind the fact that like

[36:58] basically when you're a big dog, you

[37:00] just got to do something different. When

[37:02] you're like a 20 point underdog, when

[37:04] you're a huge underdog, you can't just

[37:05] try to play a team straight up. And that

[37:07] applies to sports and that applies to

[37:09] marketing.

[37:11] It's just a wonder to me why we still

[37:13] haven't had the bet insurance. Like you

[37:16] could pay a bit more to have the injury

[37:18] insurance. I I still understand why a

[37:20] book doesn't offer that. We have like

[37:22] insurance if your team is up if like a

[37:23] basketball team's up by 25, your money

[37:25] line gets paid out whether they whether

[37:27] they win or not even the other team

[37:28] comes back. We don't have injury

[37:30] insurance which you can which you can

[37:31] get which again it's a little bit

[37:32] strange.

[37:33] >> The money line insurance I actually

[37:34] think is something different to the fact

[37:36] that that's just to churn the money in

[37:38] the account even faster. So, if the

[37:40] game's over, they're going to pay you

[37:42] off.

[37:42] >> You know what? They get back to you

[37:44] before the next game starts. So, it's

[37:46] not even like it's even more insidious

[37:48] than you think.

[37:49] >> You know, I I feel really dumb admitting

[37:53] this, but I didn't think about it like

[37:54] that. That's That is so obvious.

[37:56] >> You shouldn't You shouldn't think about

[37:58] that. That's for fish.

[37:59] >> I mean, I I guess um I I I mean, when it

[38:03] happens, I just I think, "Fuck, they

[38:05] lost." And then I How did they lose this

[38:06] game? Then I go, "Oh, I the money

[38:08] still." I I didn't think about it like I

[38:10] can start betting again right away,

[38:12] which is actually probably what it's

[38:13] for. That's a that's

[38:16] >> good. I felt was just starting betting

[38:20] uh was still in his wreck days. Uh he

[38:22] bet on Luca Donets to win rookie of the

[38:24] year and they paid me out in February

[38:26] and I thought, "What? Wow." Like what a

[38:28] nice company this company is. And then

[38:30] later on I realized they were just like,

[38:31] "Get this more on his money back. Who

[38:33] can take it?" Like

[38:34] >> Right. Exactly. All right. We're going

[38:36] to keep going with this show. We'll get

[38:38] into the next topic in just a moment.

[38:39] Before we do, let's hear about the

[38:41] Discord we have here at the Hammer

[38:43] Betting Network. We know the Hammer is

[38:45] truly like a family. Familiar faces,

[38:47] inside jokes, and the one person that

[38:49] everyone likes picking on. Well, here's

[38:51] your chance to continue the

[38:52] conversation. Join our new Hammer

[38:54] Discord. A chance for us to discuss all

[38:56] the games and news, share our favorite

[38:57] bets, and interact with your favorite

[38:59] Hammer creators. discord.gg/hammer

[39:02] to join now or visit a link in the

[39:04] description. Next up, we have a

[39:05] conversation that was sparked by Jeff

[39:07] Benson of CIRCA. It was this

[39:09] conversation that initially was this

[39:11] tweet from at DraftGeet who said,

[39:13] "Legalized sports betting needs only one

[39:15] change. Same limits for all players on

[39:17] all bets to get a license to operate. As

[39:19] it stands now, the game is literally

[39:20] rigged. Can lose everything, but if

[39:23] you're any good, you'll be limited. That

[39:25] has to change." Jeff Benson posted the

[39:27] meme of the the man defiantly standing

[39:30] amongst the crowd saying, "I used to

[39:31] believe this, too. I no longer do."

[39:34] Dustin Willis asked what changed your

[39:35] mind and he said working the industry 15

[39:37] years everyone having the same limits is

[39:39] a pipe dream and totally unsustainable

[39:41] books have to make money that's the

[39:42] reality of it if universal limits exist

[39:45] pricing is worth worse menus are smaller

[39:47] and the industry eventually goes to zero

[39:50] the reply what a sellout take no no one

[39:52] should be limited because they actually

[39:54] win enough people lose to where you

[39:56] shouldn't have to limit the 1% that wins

[39:58] and Jeff Bennett says limiting winners

[39:59] is good for the winners pants quote

[40:03] tweeted this and said, "There are

[40:05] basically two stages of your life as an

[40:06] advantage sports better. Stage one, you

[40:08] don't realize this that limits are good

[40:10] for winners. Stage two, you understand

[40:12] this, understand why you're able to make

[40:14] lots of money." (Pentheis), it's not

[40:17] because you can see colors on an odd

[40:19] screen. So, this reminds me a lot of an

[40:21] episode of Life of a Capper we did on

[40:23] this on this channel where I interviewed

[40:25] a variety of sports betterers such as

[40:28] Mike and Porter, who you see on screen

[40:30] here. Kesh didn't return my call on that

[40:32] one, but that's okay. Uh all everyone

[40:34] involved in that when I asked them

[40:37] should there be universal limits, every

[40:38] single professional sports better said

[40:41] no. So naturally, uh I feel like we're

[40:44] going to have similar takes here, but

[40:46] Porter, uh you wanted to open on this

[40:49] one, so why don't you give your

[40:50] thoughts? Yeah. So, I was I was going to

[40:52] mention that interview and I believe

[40:54] while I was watching that interview,

[40:56] every single person was hesitant to say

[40:58] that answer. And the truth is

[41:02] is basically the only reason most people

[41:06] that are winners win is because of who

[41:09] the competition is. The fact that they

[41:12] limit just instantly means that the

[41:15] market will not be as efficient. If they

[41:18] didn't limit, the market would become

[41:20] very, very efficient. Even if liquidity

[41:23] went up, all you would actually see then

[41:26] are bigger and smarter players coming

[41:28] into the industry. And I promise you,

[41:30] even to the listeners of this show who

[41:32] are pretty advanced and to other winners

[41:34] out there, there are exceptions. They're

[41:37] few and far between. Usually they could

[41:39] probably be more successful somewhere

[41:40] else because of the liquidity issue. But

[41:43] it is guaranteed that almost 99% of the

[41:46] people listening to this show would not

[41:48] be winners at all if there were

[41:50] universal limits because the market

[41:52] would become impossible to win at. And

[41:55] it's really just that simple. The skill

[41:58] in sports betting, most people think

[41:59] it's opening up a model, clicking some

[42:01] buttons, and winning. And there are just

[42:04] so many other components that are

[42:06] required to win at scale to make depends

[42:10] what each person thinks of life-changing

[42:12] money. But there are so many other

[42:14] skills that if it was just turn your

[42:16] laptop, program something, click a

[42:19] winner, nobody would be a winner.

[42:21] Because the real big boys, the real

[42:23] smart people with crazy PhD degrees and

[42:26] who knows what, you know, Nobel

[42:29] laureates in economics, if the market

[42:31] got big enough, you guys are not beating

[42:33] them. It's as simple as that.

[42:35] >> Not to overly self-promote or anything,

[42:37] but we had an episode on this show as on

[42:40] this channel as well. We did an

[42:41] interview with Calvin and Hobo who said

[42:43] that all these hurdles that sports book

[42:46] provide when people get frustrated,

[42:48] upset by them. He likes them because

[42:49] just another hurdle that maybe another

[42:52] winning better is not willing to go over

[42:54] in order to get their bets in, which

[42:56] leaves more opportunity in the market. I

[42:59] think we do good content here, so I have

[43:00] to plug it. Mike, you agreed when I

[43:03] interviewed you at at Bet Bash all the

[43:05] way back in the previous summer. So,

[43:07] what are your sentiments now?

[43:09] I'll say universal limits. No, that's

[43:12] like they wouldn't be able to do that,

[43:13] you know, and operate just because you'd

[43:17] have to make the number pretty large, so

[43:18] the menu would really go down. Um, if

[43:21] you offered a minimum limit, I do think

[43:22] that people have started to kind of

[43:25] fear-monger into like, oh, well, you'd

[43:27] have to be sides and totals only. Uh,

[43:29] Jared Smith would get all the men in the

[43:31] world would have testosterone again and

[43:33] like it would all be, you know, very

[43:35] shrunken down. I there is they just have

[43:37] to make money off it for it to make

[43:39] sense for them to offer. So, I do think

[43:41] that sometimes we overblow, you know,

[43:43] how hard it would be if they had, say

[43:45] they put up, you know, player props for

[43:47] a nickel and you had to bet it into

[43:48] that. Like, I do think that those kind

[43:51] of talks are overrated and how much it

[43:54] would affect the industry. But in

[43:56] general, yeah, now it's going to always

[43:58] be any kind of uh things that make it

[44:01] tougher to scale are going to be that

[44:03] friction that allows people to operate

[44:05] uh not at scale. So, we want you want

[44:08] things to be able to scale to a point,

[44:10] but not to a point where it scales past

[44:13] your ability to earn off of it. So, it's

[44:15] a balance. Uh, it's a tricky game, but

[44:17] yeah, that's my general thoughts.

[44:19] >> All right. And finally, Kesh, uh, didn't

[44:22] catch you at Bet Bash for the interview,

[44:23] so blanks late to hear what you have to

[44:25] say.

[44:26] >> Did I remember you really? Maybe did we

[44:29] actually discuss that? I ignored it. Uh

[44:31] uh to be honest, it's possible that I

[44:33] just immediately thought there's no

[44:35] [ __ ] way he's going to do it. I'm not

[44:37] going to bother. Uh that's fair. Um I I

[44:41] got to say I think uh Porter and PB kind

[44:43] of kind of captured this one pretty

[44:45] good. The only thing I would say is I

[44:49] I do think some maybe not even a a a

[44:53] like a minimum limit. I do like the fact

[44:57] when something is like I my number one

[45:00] hatred is the submitt that I mean I'll

[45:04] just say DraftKings uses this where I I'

[45:07] like I'd rather have the FanDuel point

[45:10] of like I if I type in a certain like

[45:13] type in a few numbers and then I can see

[45:15] what the actual limit is before I submit

[45:18] it versus going to the you know review

[45:21] of death and them coming back with like

[45:23] you know $323. 3 cents. So that would be

[45:27] my only change is that

[45:29] >> I would like to see whatever your limit

[45:32] is for that account, your stake factored

[45:34] account posted before like on a

[45:37] submitted before you submit a bet. In

[45:39] terms of like global limits, I think

[45:42] it's a little pie in the sky. That

[45:44] sounds like a good idea that um our

[45:46] other two panelists kind of shut down

[45:48] why it's not.

[45:50] >> Also, I don't think there's any such

[45:51] thing as allowing a nickel. By the way,

[45:52] if you allow a nickel, then a person has

[45:54] seven accounts and they're betting 3500.

[45:56] That there's no such thing. It's not

[45:57] it's not a real limit. It's just

[45:59] inventing stuff. At least if you, you

[46:01] know, notify the user how much he can

[46:03] bet on his account, at least it like

[46:05] sets their mind of like some kind of

[46:07] acceptance beforehand than just like a

[46:09] guessing game that you throw up in the

[46:11] air like, hey, what's going to happen

[46:12] today? Oh, and by the way, could

[46:14] literally be the same game, the same

[46:15] market, the same time, and you'll get a

[46:17] different limit. It's insane.

[46:20] >> Sure. But I will say for the nickel

[46:21] thing, at least if you're the trader,

[46:23] you then uh you know, you have the

[46:26] opportunity to adjust your line

[46:27] accordingly based on the information

[46:29] that's coming in. It's like, you know,

[46:30] you put it up for a nickel and then

[46:31] every bet that you get is another piece

[46:33] of information you can adjust. Now, if

[46:35] you're submitting them all at the same

[46:36] time or something, maybe they can do

[46:37] change of that's actually a break of

[46:39] house rules. That's different than, you

[46:41] know, if they're being bed at different

[46:43] places or whatever, things like that.

[46:44] So, again, I'm not saying that I even

[46:46] want this instituted. I just think that

[46:48] like the idea that nobody could offer,

[46:51] you know, a $1,000 limit and survive is

[46:53] kind of beyond Circa is probably the

[46:55] prime example I think there where

[46:57] they're offering and yes, their offering

[46:58] is small, but it's hard to tell. It's

[47:00] kind of hard to tell how much of that is

[47:02] them being a logo shop in Indiana, not

[47:04] having the budget of FanDuel, and how

[47:05] much of that is like, you know, they get

[47:07] a very they get adverse selection in the

[47:09] bad way and that they're not getting the

[47:11] same wreck customers that would, you

[47:13] know, allow them to kind of uh help some

[47:19] you're explaining why why you're just

[47:21] explaining why it doesn't work

[47:22] >> because then you you're not getting you

[47:24] don't get wreck customers. you're

[47:26] getting a certain type of customer when

[47:28] you're allowing these things. They're

[47:30] coming.

[47:31] >> Sorry. If there's universal limits, then

[47:33] you wouldn't have that adverse selection

[47:35] where you're not getting wreck

[47:36] customers. You would get by definition

[47:37] the right customers have to go to a

[47:39] place where it has those limits.

[47:40] >> Yeah. So somehow like all the books come

[47:42] together from some government agency

[47:44] that tells each book you have to offer

[47:46] XYZ dollars. It's

[47:48] >> Yeah, that was the original tweet I

[47:50] think.

[47:51] >> Uh

[47:52] >> that's impossible. So on on that video

[47:54] where I asked uh where I interviewed

[47:56] everyone asked them this question. I I

[47:58] think the most anti-limits answer was

[48:00] from Captain Jack who said that there

[48:03] shouldn't be universal limits but for a

[48:05] sports book to be able to offer let's

[48:07] say somebody $10,000. They have to offer

[48:11] minimum $1,000 for for somebody else.

[48:14] So, if you're going to charge like the

[48:16] most squares better this much, 10% of

[48:19] that needs to be allocated to somebody

[48:20] who does know what they're doing in

[48:22] order for you to be able to do that. Is

[48:24] that something you guys would support or

[48:26] do you think what we're where we're at

[48:27] right now is the best way to go about it

[48:29] or close to it? I I suppose

[48:32] >> I don't think that regulating limits is

[48:34] within the government's job. I'm not

[48:36] saying that it would be that death of

[48:38] the industry, but I don't think that the

[48:39] government should be involved in making

[48:41] sure that sharp betterers get their

[48:42] fill.

[48:43] >> Yeah. And maybe, by the way, with new

[48:46] tools at people's disposal, exchanges to

[48:49] bet, maybe sports books and maybe this

[48:52] will require a stock market hit to them

[48:54] might have to make some changes, right,

[48:55] to stay competitive or disappear like

[48:58] other, you know, sports books that have

[49:00] existed in the past that aren't around

[49:01] today,

[49:02] >> right? Okay, we're going to get into the

[49:04] comments from the previous week's

[49:05] episode. Now, as always, I said earlier,

[49:07] if you have something you want to say,

[49:08] have an opinion you want us to see, or

[49:10] want to bring up anything for general

[49:12] discussion, please put something in the

[49:13] comment section down below. While you're

[49:15] down there, make sure you've hit the

[49:16] like button and you're subscribed here

[49:18] on Circles Off. If you're listening to

[49:19] podcast for, maybe rate and review, five

[49:21] stars over there, two comments to

[49:23] feature on from this from last week's

[49:25] episode, excuse me. First of all, we had

[49:27] Bucket Lift who said, "Great show, guys.

[49:29] Never miss a point." Thank you. Keep it

[49:30] up. Joey had a great description of an

[49:32] engineer coming home at night to do

[49:34] this. And this was uh when Ken you it

[49:36] was the heralab segment where he said

[49:39] essentially don't bet but you said

[49:40] somebody like an engineer comes home

[49:42] from work and grinds out arbs and live

[49:44] bets you're never going to tell somebody

[49:46] not to do that. This person says I was

[49:48] able to have success originating doing

[49:49] this exact thing after work. I will say

[49:52] that if you learn to originate even by

[49:54] recreating something from a book you

[49:55] might be surprised how well it performs

[49:57] at least against openers anyway. It also

[49:59] provides a good foundation for any top

[50:01] down type activity you might get into.

[50:04] Um, also let me start with you Mike.

[50:06] It's you kind of nodding along to this

[50:07] one. Uh, anything on this comment from

[50:09] you?

[50:10] >> Yeah, great example of you start with,

[50:12] you know, origination, then you move

[50:14] your way into finding a way, hey, or you

[50:16] start with, I'm sorry, like some top

[50:17] down stuff, then you do some

[50:18] origination. How can I get to the number

[50:20] that they're getting to? How can I kind

[50:22] of recreate it? Look for a few flaws and

[50:24] then kind of work your way up. I think

[50:25] that's like the prime example of how you

[50:27] would want someone just to kind of get

[50:29] into this side business is do it just

[50:31] the way that guy's doing it sounds like.

[50:33] >> And Kadesh, uh, any reaction from you to

[50:35] comment?

[50:36] >> I mean, I've appreciated appreciate the

[50:38] dap up. So, I I like this guy. Let's

[50:41] send him some swag. But, uh, no, I mean,

[50:43] that's I I think that I like that's kind

[50:45] of how you got us started out. And I

[50:47] used I mean back there was a day when

[50:50] Joey Kay did some you know origination

[50:52] and it was starting with you know

[50:54] college football openers and that where

[50:55] it's like people think you know I got to

[50:58] go after you know the cream of the crop

[51:00] there where you know if you start you

[51:03] start trying to originate I don't know a

[51:05] rain like you know Ukrainian soccer or

[51:07] something that like you really start low

[51:10] and it does give you a feel for hey

[51:12] maybe maybe I have the potential to you

[51:15] know beat this market or scale up

[51:17] eventually. But regardless, I I think

[51:19] the learning of doing it just gives you

[51:22] some semblance of a better understanding

[51:24] of how markets work, how numbers work,

[51:26] all that stuff. So, yeah, I think it's a

[51:28] great uh hey, you're not going to regret

[51:31] doing it. I'll say that. Even if you

[51:33] don't, you know, maybe come across

[51:35] endless riches, um the learning is worth

[51:38] the effort. and Porter, the conversation

[51:41] we had last week was essentially like

[51:43] would you tell someone to not even

[51:45] bother starting to bet because so much

[51:46] of the the profits you could have had

[51:49] previously are dried up at this point

[51:52] just in general on that conversation. Do

[51:53] you have anything to add?

[51:55] >> I just wanted to start it's probably

[51:56] pretty difficult to play soccer in

[51:57] Ukraine right now, but um

[52:01] still operate if I'm not mistaken.

[52:03] >> Yeah. Yeah. Um no, I mean sports betting

[52:06] is a journey. So however people this is

[52:09] sounds like a journey that makes sense.

[52:12] Uh but yeah look this is every industry

[52:15] has the like easy time and then things

[52:17] get harder. So in general you never hear

[52:21] about the people who like started and

[52:23] fail. You only really hear about the

[52:24] success stories and you're always going

[52:26] to hear like now is tougher now is

[52:28] tougher. But if this is something you're

[52:30] passionate about and you want to go

[52:31] through the journey of betting then no

[52:33] there's no reason to tell someone hey

[52:35] this is don't do this anymore. It's

[52:36] gotten tougher. It's, you know, you move

[52:39] on in sports bet, but you find your

[52:40] path. You find a journey for you and you

[52:42] work at it. And eventually, maybe the

[52:45] great riches are gone. Maybe not. Maybe

[52:46] there'll be new opportunities. Look,

[52:48] they invented exchanges. It's a brand

[52:50] new thing. It's, you know, predicting

[52:52] the future and there's opportunities to

[52:54] make money. So, you never know.

[52:56] >> Can we get China on here to see if you

[52:58] had a Ukrainian soccer future? If that

[53:00] got voided, would that be a bad break?

[53:04] Uh well, I mean the these sorts of

[53:07] things happen like during co um uh I I

[53:11] think so let's say the the Turkish

[53:12] soccer league uh it was mo like

[53:16] twothirds of the way through the season

[53:18] and the rest of the season didn't get

[53:20] played and the team that was in first I

[53:22] believe it was Travansport ended up

[53:24] still getting the league title but they

[53:26] were so far ahead like they were going

[53:28] to win. It is possible that Turkey the

[53:31] the Turkish Super League could have just

[53:33] said this season is void. It doesn't

[53:34] count. We didn't get to finish it. So if

[53:36] anybody had a trapzon sport ticket,

[53:38] would do you think that would be a bad

[53:40] beat? I think that would be an example.

[53:42] >> How the hell do you know who was in

[53:44] first place of the Turkish soccer

[53:45] league? Did you have that bet?

[53:47] >> No. I I'm I follow European soccer very

[53:50] closely and because it was the first

[53:52] time in a very long time Travonor

[53:54] Trazansport excuse me had won the league

[53:56] and it was a big story because the fans

[53:59] were panicking because they were like

[54:01] you better not avoid like we we haven't

[54:03] won in x amount of years like you better

[54:06] still count this season essentially.

[54:08] >> Yeah, I forgot that garbage they don't

[54:09] do the playoffs either. So like I forgot

[54:11] that we had to deal with that whole you

[54:13] know European nonsense. So yeah, you're

[54:15] right. I guess. Yeah, I'll go ahead.

[54:16] Award it to him.

[54:18] >> Yeah.

[54:19] Uh I feel like it would be a pretty bad

[54:21] beat in that instance, by the way. Uh

[54:23] we'll see if China agrees cuz they were

[54:25] in first by anyways. Second comment,

[54:27] final comment from the the previous

[54:29] week's show. Brady Fringe. This is a

[54:31] comment a lot of people had. Uh Jacob's

[54:33] mic versus Kenish camera angle. Who wins

[54:36] in a fight? So, uh last week I had the

[54:38] wrong microphone connected. Hopefully,

[54:41] sorry, the issue of the microphone. I

[54:42] ended up having the wrong microphone you

[54:44] used for the final for the final product

[54:47] that we put out which was horrifying to

[54:49] me as a producer who's in charge of

[54:51] making sure it sounds okay. Uh but Kesh

[54:54] your camera angle it was your phone I

[54:55] think uh that was like balanced against

[54:57] your your computer whatever at work. I

[55:00] have to say I've seen Kenishh with far

[55:03] worse. So for me he showed up on time.

[55:07] It sounded okay. I could see him. I

[55:09] thought that was a-ok okay to move

[55:11] forward with

[55:12] >> it. So there's two thread like I could

[55:15] have used I was in Joey corporate so one

[55:19] thing had to give right either the

[55:21] microphone was going to be trash which

[55:23] I've done before or the camera angle was

[55:26] going to be bad so we sacrificed the

[55:29] camera because not everybody watches

[55:31] this on you know YouTube

[55:33] >> even for video audio is more important

[55:35] than the visual so

[55:36] >> microphone so we went with the audio

[55:38] there I'll try uh if I end up there

[55:40] again that situation

[55:43] try and prop it up a little differently.

[55:44] >> In fairness, we usually record by the

[55:48] time you get home from work. We decided

[55:51] as a collective to go a bit earlier, so

[55:53] maybe you just weren't as prepared

[55:55] because of that. I'll I'll I'll help you

[55:58] out a little bit there. But, uh, I mean,

[56:01] I was just surprised. I thought the

[56:02] comments were going to be how bad I

[56:04] sounded. Everyone's like, "That was

[56:05] fine. What I can't stand is this camera

[56:08] angle." But you'll be happy to see that

[56:10] today the camera angle is uh is correct

[56:12] in in in his house. But we can keep

[56:15] going with the show. Up to the next

[56:16] topic coming from holy_oses7.

[56:20] So interesting story that built up

[56:22] through prediction markets here. He says

[56:24] this account was created 40 minutes ago.

[56:26] He already had a 160k position on a US

[56:30] air strike on Iran today. This is the

[56:32] only market he is betting on. Does he

[56:35] know something? And it's uh

[56:38] mutual delta on poly market. That was

[56:41] the user. And the rep the quote tweet

[56:43] said, "We've entered the age of

[56:45] information laundering. Bet 22k on yes.

[56:47] Wait for the news to go around. Copy

[56:49] traders floor the trade. Poly market

[56:52] accounts share it. Once the trade hits

[56:54] 50%, throw 100k plus on no. Lose 20k to

[56:59] make 100k." Now, in the end, there was

[57:01] not a US strike on Iran. this specific

[57:05] user, Mutual Delta, ended up losing

[57:07] $40,000. However, it is possible that

[57:09] this account lost money, but there are

[57:12] other accounts with this user that were

[57:15] winning. So, it's difficult to say. It's

[57:17] difficult to see what was actually at

[57:20] play here, but it it's very interesting.

[57:22] Uh, you look antsy, Mike, but Porter has

[57:25] requested first. I'm going to I'm going

[57:26] allow him to go before we get to you.

[57:28] >> Well, I mean, luckily this this happened

[57:30] on Poly Market and not Koshi. So, all I

[57:33] can say to these like crypto bot guys,

[57:37] um, welcome to sports betting.

[57:41] >> All right,

[57:41] >> people bet one side and go the other

[57:43] side. These guys think like the wheel is

[57:45] being these guys think the wheel is

[57:47] being invented every other week when

[57:48] they see something over here. It's

[57:50] actually crazy to see this where it's

[57:52] just like they're so shocked. They're so

[57:54] surprised because they're so confident

[57:56] that they know what's going on. There's

[57:57] like this crazy mismatch of like

[58:00] knowledge and confidence that you see a

[58:02] lot of these like Twitter people

[58:04] displaying.

[58:06] Go ahead, Mike.

[58:07] >> We'll have to maybe we cut this if this

[58:09] is not allowed, you know. Um, so there

[58:12] was two different markets that my friend

[58:14] was betting into. He saw that there was

[58:17] way more liquidity on will Taylor Swift

[58:20] get pregnant in uh before 2025 than will

[58:25] she get uh pregnant before she was

[58:26] married. He may have tried to pump one

[58:30] of the markets up to a super high

[58:32] percentage in hopes that somebody would

[58:34] see it, think there was inside

[58:36] information, and start betting the one

[58:38] with uh with higher liquidity would then

[58:40] change what their percentage was in

[58:43] order to like get a good price of that,

[58:44] sell out, you know, do some arbitrage in

[58:46] that way. It didn't work out for him. He

[58:49] lost quite a bit of money on it. But uh

[58:52] yeah, so I could say uh pretty

[58:54] confidently that people are trying to do

[58:55] these sorts of things. So uh my guess is

[58:59] that this US Iran person saw the stuff

[59:01] about Venezuela and was like, you know,

[59:04] I can head fake markets. And maybe he

[59:06] did, maybe he didn't.

[59:08] >> We actually talked about this on the

[59:09] Monday show in regards to like the it

[59:12] was the conversation around like the

[59:13] pizzas being ordered to the Pentagon,

[59:15] but I was like somebody could fake this.

[59:17] Somebody's able to fake this stuff. And

[59:19] now that people are like starting to

[59:21] become privy to, oh, this is starting to

[59:23] move here. Maybe I need to start betting

[59:25] it as well. Now, we're just at a point,

[59:28] I don't think we're quite at an

[59:29] equilibrium, but we might be getting

[59:31] close to that where you almost can't

[59:34] even bite on this sort of news because

[59:36] you have to gauge whether or not there's

[59:37] any truth to it. That that seems to be

[59:39] part of the game now with these

[59:40] prediction markets. When you guys were

[59:42] talking about the pizza and you were

[59:43] talking about somebody's tracking the

[59:45] pizza, somebody could order pizzas to a

[59:47] different place in order. That was like

[59:49] the Vince McMahon meme. I was listening

[59:50] to it. I was like, "Oh, to fake the

[59:52] pizza order [ __ ] order a [ __ ] ton of

[59:56] pizza to fake a market.

[59:58] >> That's what this industry should be

[59:59] about. That's the real good stuff. Why

[60:01] why predict 20k? Why predict 20k into

[60:05] the market when you can buy $20,000

[60:08] worth of pizza and then bet the other

[60:10] way and you have pizza now?

[60:12] >> We need Greeks. We need all these, you

[60:14] know, we need blacks for prediction

[60:15] markets. No, we need somebody ordering

[60:17] pizzas to a random location in order to

[60:19] influx Dominoes to trick everyone. I

[60:22] think that was like that's what

[60:23] prediction markets are meant to be to me

[60:25] at least.

[60:25] >> Maybe there will be an influx in like

[60:27] random pizzas being arriving at the

[60:29] Pentagon. like we didn't order this

[60:32] [ __ ] sending it over there. Uh

[60:34] Kenish, any thoughts from you on this

[60:36] topic?

[60:37] I mean ah I will say like you're

[60:43] are we entering that like that era where

[60:47] yeah you're like so many people I love I

[60:50] love the ins and outs of this like if

[60:53] you're at like you have the strategy to

[60:56] be able to this reminds me a little bit

[60:57] of like the live dog Luke uh where like

[61:00] he was doing the thing where like the

[61:02] like the player was out and then it

[61:04] changes the line where if you're sophic

[61:06] ically enough and this is probably this

[61:08] is at the you know the highest level of

[61:10] the game to have an account that's going

[61:12] to then dump you know a 100 thou 50,000

[61:16] 100,000 into a market then use some

[61:18] other accounts to aggregate it to then

[61:21] come back on the other side aam's razor

[61:24] is no that's probably didn't happen this

[61:26] guy just thought Iran was going to

[61:27] strike and lost money but I love the

[61:30] like there's always that since you never

[61:32] know that kind of strategy conspiracy

[61:34] behind it of like oh people now going

[61:36] the other way on it. So, uh the endless

[61:39] uh strategy of of markets

[61:42] >> uh and on the live dog loop topic that

[61:44] you had there. So, what he was doing was

[61:47] he was making fake

[61:49] like beat reporter accounts in the hopes

[61:52] that one of the bot accounts that

[61:55] takes that information and says this

[61:57] player is now questionable for this game

[61:59] in attempt to move a line. Allegedly, he

[62:02] got an unabated bot to pick it up and

[62:04] got I think it was a college football

[62:06] line moved from a 7 and 1/2 to a seven

[62:08] that he wanted to bet. And I think

[62:09] >> I was part of that movement. So, okay.

[62:11] >> My dog Luke got me.

[62:13] >> Oh, really?

[62:14] >> Yep.

[62:15] >> You got got. So, now that's why your

[62:17] radar is up when we talk about something

[62:19] like this cuz you don't want to get bit

[62:21] in the other direction. And then when

[62:24] you tried it, at least

[62:25] >> it didn't work. Yeah. I'm on the wrong

[62:27] side of all this. I did actually.

[62:29] >> Yeah. Well, my friend Taylor Swift, it

[62:32] was not as good, but uh I actually have

[62:35] done something actually. Never mind.

[62:37] Let's go on next topic.

[62:39] >> Well, before we go to the next to the

[62:41] next topic, n the national college

[62:43] football championship is nearly here and

[62:46] we got something special coming with the

[62:47] hammer on the hit the books channel. It

[62:49] just so happens we have the coast on the

[62:50] channel here. Kesh, tell us what we

[62:52] have, what we can expect from you and

[62:54] Brad Powers. Monday, January 19th, the

[62:58] granddaddy of them all, the natty, the

[63:01] national championship game, Indiana

[63:04] verse Miami at the Hard Rock, baby. Come

[63:07] join us Monday for the HTB hit the books

[63:11] mega show, mega preview as we lead into

[63:14] the game. 5:00 Monday, me and the

[63:17] Godfather CFB, Brad Powers. We might

[63:20] have a few guests coming on to jump on

[63:22] it. We preview the game. We got props.

[63:24] We got the full slate going forward.

[63:26] Monday, we lead you in to the final game

[63:29] of the CFB season. The natty, the one

[63:32] you don't want to miss. We'll see you

[63:33] Monday. Hit the books live at 5, baby.

[63:36] Great promo as always from Kenish. You

[63:38] can go to the Hit the Books channel by

[63:40] going to the link in the description

[63:42] right now. Make sure you're subscribed

[63:44] over there. Don't miss out on that show.

[63:47] That's 5:00 p. p.m. Eastern time on

[63:49] Monday. But two more topics on the show

[63:51] today. Next one, we come to the Odds Jam

[63:53] lawsuit that was initially talked about

[63:56] in December of 2024, saying that Switch

[63:59] Analytics has sued rival Oddsmakers Odds

[64:02] Jam and Optic Odds in San Francisco

[64:04] Superior Court, alleging that they

[64:06] misappropriated Switch's propri

[64:08] proprietary sports betting odds

[64:10] information directly off its clients'

[64:12] websites and sold access to that info,

[64:15] causing $100 million plus in damages.

[64:18] database bets quote tweeted at the time

[64:21] and said, "Well, this is interesting,

[64:22] especially coming right after the

[64:23] massive odds jam sale. I'm gonna watch

[64:25] football now. We'll come back to this if

[64:27] we ever get a link to an actual

[64:29] complaint filing. None seems to exist

[64:31] yet." Well, just over a year later, we

[64:34] revisit the topic here. He says, "About

[64:36] a year ago, Swiss analyst sued Oddgeem

[64:38] seeking $100 million damages. Last

[64:41] month, a judge allowed this case to

[64:43] proceed. still a long way to go here,

[64:46] but would have been nice if the case was

[64:48] thrown out. So, this is now proceeding

[64:52] and

[64:54] provides some interesting little dilemma

[64:56] here for OddJam. So, I wanted to start

[64:58] with you first of all on this one, Kesh.

[65:00] Um, what are your thoughts? How do you

[65:02] feel about all this?

[65:04] >> I got to be honest with you, I don't

[65:06] fully understand the case here. I get

[65:10] the, you know, like the hot news theory

[65:12] and that of like it seems like they took

[65:15] kind of what I would deem as

[65:18] nonproprietary feeds that were scraped

[65:22] and gone in like and used it for their

[65:24] product to then get that. The problem

[65:26] being, which I think is what database is

[65:29] uh kind of alluding to, is if this then

[65:33] makes you liable in a court of law for

[65:37] damages,

[65:39] does that kind of ruin the scraping

[65:43] industry like for any odds like board

[65:45] out there where then the only way you

[65:48] would have any odd screens is like

[65:51] direct legal binding agreements between

[65:55] the odds screen and the the sports book

[65:59] which is quite tough to acquire and also

[66:03] quite expensive which could in turn

[66:06] either one you won't have odds screens

[66:09] anymore you won't have public odds

[66:10] screens or two the cost would then you

[66:14] know like go up incrementally I don't

[66:16] see the actual case here how this is

[66:18] what they did but I agree with you that

[66:21] it probably even though don't get me

[66:23] wrong would kind of let you know lol to

[66:25] see odds, you know, bang. Right. Right.

[66:28] Right. Based on who runs that, who's

[66:29] involved in that company, I don't think

[66:31] that's good for the the system.

[66:33] >> Yeah. Because the reason I I kind of

[66:35] discussed this because it it it seems

[66:37] like a very large precedent here because

[66:39] if they rule in Swiss analytics's favor,

[66:42] which I I also agree seems unlikely.

[66:44] You're right. Like how would we have

[66:47] these competing odds tools? Like would

[66:49] it just go back to send you have to just

[66:51] do it manually and go from sportsbook to

[66:53] sports book? Uh, Porter, any thoughts

[66:55] from you on this?

[66:56] >> Yeah, so most like people who are on

[67:00] top, I think they should be excited

[67:01] about stuff like this actually because

[67:03] chaos usually should favor like the

[67:05] people that are better prepared or like

[67:07] understand what might be coming. Not

[67:08] that I think it's any way possible that

[67:11] a judge will in the end rule in their

[67:14] favor. But effectively really this just

[67:16] I mean and then if you look at who

[67:18] tweeted it some of the people who

[67:19] responded underneath like arbors and uh

[67:23] you know people who like screens

[67:24] lighting up a certain color kind of

[67:25] telling them which button to push they

[67:28] they're gone. There's no odd screens for

[67:30] them to do this. So this would cause a

[67:32] lot of chaos I think in the industry if

[67:34] it ever actually happened where

[67:36] effectively the the final stage of this

[67:38] is that there are no odd screens.

[67:40] >> Yeah, that's kind of where I'm feeling

[67:43] as well. But how about you, Mike? What

[67:44] are your thoughts?

[67:45] >> I guess would the difference be that

[67:47] Swiss is selling this information. So

[67:49] it's proprietary info compared to

[67:52] Caesars is not claiming that this is

[67:54] proprietary. It's just something that

[67:57] they, you know, offer to clients

[67:59] essentially. I don't know if there's

[68:00] some kind of difference in the offerings

[68:02] because, you know, Caesars isn't selling

[68:04] their lines. But then I guess you could

[68:05] say the third party providers to

[68:07] Caesars, uh, you know, do sell their

[68:09] lines. So you're effectively scraping

[68:10] through them. I I don't know. Uh, this

[68:12] is well beyond my pay grade. I think

[68:14] that no oddscreen like Porter said

[68:17] actually probably for if you're really

[68:19] invested in this might not be like

[68:21] people are like oh my god an odd screen

[68:23] that will disappear like you'll figure

[68:25] it out if you really need to figure it

[68:26] out but Johnny who's kind of arbing on

[68:28] the side is probably not. So

[68:30] >> right

[68:31] >> I don't know maybe it's a good

[68:32] opportunity for those at the top of the

[68:33] game. Uh bad for guys who are just

[68:35] arbing on Saturdays. You know the odds

[68:37] jam crew.

[68:38] >> Rest in peace.

[68:40] All right, last topic for the show today

[68:43] comes from the Philly godfather u says

[68:46] in his Twitter bio professional sports

[68:48] better he's gone head-to-head he's buted

[68:50] heads I guess with Rob Pizzola CEO of

[68:52] the hammer on many occasions in the past

[68:54] but he said the day you stop trying to

[68:56] hit grand slams daily in sports betting

[68:58] market prince these crazy parlays and

[69:01] concentrate on base hits uh

[69:03] hypothetically um or metaphorically

[69:05] excuse me is the day you start turning a

[69:07] profit in this business treat sports

[69:09] betting as a business. Work hard, do

[69:11] your research, and watch your profits

[69:13] go. Uh, for the last topic here, Porter,

[69:15] let's get your thoughts first.

[69:17] >> Yeah. So,

[69:19] it's advice from Philly Godfather. So,

[69:21] obviously, you know, like, but he's

[69:25] trying to basically say something that

[69:27] kind of makes sense, but what I really

[69:29] wanted to harp on was the last sentence

[69:32] cuz all like the other nonsense that,

[69:33] you know, is going on there is mostly

[69:35] like baloney tooting his own horn. But I

[69:37] love the idea that sports betting well

[69:40] what he means his business is like

[69:42] touting BS and some picks. That's what

[69:45] he's working on. But the idea that

[69:48] sports betting is something other than

[69:50] just opening a model and clicking a

[69:52] button that there's lots of work and

[69:54] different things you need to do. I love

[69:56] that component. I love that message.

[69:59] Even though I'm not really sure he means

[70:01] it the way that I'm trying to explain

[70:03] it, but in general this is should be eye

[70:07] opening to so many users who are out

[70:09] here trying to do something in this

[70:11] industry and they don't really get that

[70:14] it's just like anything else in life. If

[70:16] your goal is to do something

[70:17] substantial, it's a business first. And

[70:21] if you're really trying to make the big

[70:23] bucks, treat it as work. Treat it as you

[70:25] are doing something where you're putting

[70:27] in effort. You're putting in the time

[70:30] and

[70:32] good luck out there. It's not about

[70:33] trying to hit home, you know, grand

[70:35] slams like he said here.

[70:37] >> Uh speaking of treating like a business,

[70:38] we've got Mike with the whiteboard in

[70:40] the background again. Everyone's got a

[70:42] role in the whole cog of the machine

[70:44] that that you're involved in it seems.

[70:46] So I I think you'd agree with what

[70:47] Porter was saying. Yeah, I Philly

[70:50] Godfather is backing ass backwards into

[70:53] whatever like it's not like he is Porter

[70:55] sees it because he does it every day.

[70:57] Billy Godfather is trying to portray

[70:59] what a winning better would say. So, um

[71:01] that is kind of the difference between

[71:03] the two. But yeah, of course, if you're

[71:05] going to make this your job, then make

[71:08] it your job. So I I think that anyone

[71:11] who's trying to earn off this you're not

[71:12] going to earn off this not working at

[71:14] and not actually like you know if you

[71:17] want the income of a job then you have

[71:18] to treat it like a job as far as hours

[71:20] and work and everything like that. So

[71:21] yeah he obviously is again I want to be

[71:25] careful about who I'm praising here and

[71:26] what he's saying but yeah he did back

[71:28] his way into this one. Uh, Kenesh,

[71:31] finally to you. We don't need maybe

[71:33] don't need to hear anymore on on like

[71:35] the business side of it, but maybe let's

[71:36] hear about the Philly Godfather as a as

[71:39] a veteran.

[71:41] >> I'm not like I'm not I can't believe I'm

[71:43] backing up, you know, like two straight

[71:45] people here on the panel that like could

[71:46] not, you know, were just foaming at the

[71:48] mouth to give, you know, Billy Godfather

[71:50] his his props there and just lathering

[71:52] him up. Uh, one, no, this doesn't even

[71:55] it doesn't this point doesn't even make

[71:57] any [ __ ] I've known people get Isaac on

[72:00] here. Ron Robin, that's always like, you

[72:02] know, like going for major scores.

[72:04] There's there's like multiple ways to

[72:05] skin a SK. Yes. Over the long term.

[72:08] Yeah. If you're betting straights and

[72:09] that and that's usually up. But I mean,

[72:11] there's been people out there where they

[72:14] found glitches. I mean, even like the

[72:15] pick six story, which, you know, didn't

[72:17] pay out for a lot of people, but that's

[72:19] a that's considered a grand slam where

[72:21] if you were able to like get in and get

[72:22] your money out. So, I don't agree with

[72:25] the whole thing there. It's just like,

[72:27] "Hey, I sell straight." It's also a very

[72:31] like

[72:32] this is something you would expect to

[72:34] hear from like somebody who's in the

[72:36] industry that's like 55 years old or

[72:39] something like that. Like it's a very

[72:41] old school like got to go don't forget

[72:43] your bar. You don't know parlays. You're

[72:45] winning better than that. So, um yeah,

[72:48] I'm not I'm not going to give this any

[72:50] credit. Seems like

[72:52] >> to Joey's point, I actually ironically

[72:54] have kind of shifted over the past few

[72:57] uh maybe six months, past year to

[72:59] betting higher variant stuff and more

[73:01] like parlays, long shots, like really

[73:04] diving into it. So, I guess I don't

[73:05] actually listen to what The Godfather

[73:07] suggests here, but he's the one man

[73:09] trying to bring testosterone back into

[73:10] sports betting. I have to stick up for

[73:13] him there. Um, you know, and end this

[73:15] nonsense that Jared Smith's fighting

[73:16] against.

[73:17] >> Yep. I I was going to add some in, but I

[73:18] think that's the perfect way to end off

[73:20] this episode of Circle Back. So, we will

[73:22] end it off there. Thank you so much for

[73:24] watching, listening. If you did enjoy,

[73:26] please make sure you hit the like

[73:27] button. Consider rate and reviewing five

[73:29] stars. Follow us where you get your

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[73:32] subscribing. We do lots of great content

[73:34] here on Circles Off. And we're going to

[73:36] continue to do that through the rest of

[73:37] 2026. So, we hope you're involved. As

[73:40] always though, we will see you again

[73:41] next time.