00:00 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions. We'll be right back Twitter. There's always so much to cover that, even though we're doing this a day early, we have a day less of content to maybe go over. There is still so much content here. It is a loaded episode for us to go through and only three of us covering it on today's show. 

01:14
My name is Jacob. I'm your host, as always. I'm also the producer on the Monday show, but next to me in the middle, we've got Joey Kanish. I've also got Chris Dierkis on the right. No, nadeau, he pulled a Zilbert Internet was down. There was nothing he could do about it. He's ducking out of this one, kanish. 

01:29 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Well, I mean listen after last week. You know Fluff needed a week off. He got a little too much in the kitchen for him. And now Nadeau hashtag Nadeau gone for internet, slow internet. Quote unquote yeah, he didn't want to come in, but that's good, because you know what? We got a little score to settle on this show anyway between me and Flip Flop over there, so we'll get into it. 

02:00 - Flup (Co-host)
First of all, that is complete fake news. I couldn't handle the heat. I had a wedding to go to and I'm a supportive friend, so I got to show up for my friends. And also it makes sense that it's only three. When someone as good as me counts for two people, you don't need Isaac to do. When I'm here, I mean, I'm basically two people in one. 

02:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
We should have got Rico Bosco to fill in. I don't know what he, you know, maybe texted him See if one of the riders would fill in. But yeah, unfortunately no, they do today. 

02:30 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
It is what it is. We will move on. We will move forward here, doing this a day in advance, by the way, because of the NFL draft we don't want to have any conflicts with that for the recording. So, doing this a day ahead, we're back to normal schedule, going forward just a one-time thing over here, but let's jump into our first topic. This made some heavy news over the last few days, so if you haven't seen, you probably should have seen. 

02:51
April 21st, the Pope sadly passed away Pope Francis and for many people, first thoughts are that of grief. First thoughts are that of who's going to be the next pope. For some people, the first thought is where can I go bet nick cassianos to hit a home run? Because nick cassianos was one of the most bet, was the most bet prop of the day, one of the most bet things of the day to hit a home run on april 21st, the day that it happened. And cassianos has built up this reputation, which all started on August 19th 2020, when he hit a home run. During Tom Brenneman's apology for using an LGBTQ slur, he said the F word that isn't fuck on a hot mic as it came back from commercial, got caught saying it. Then, during the game, did an apology for using that word, where he basically said this is probably not going to be sitting in front of this camera ever again. While he was giving the apology, nick Castellanos sent his shot into deep left field and the rest is history. But then led to a string of other events where, july 5th 2021, he homered during a eulogy for a military veteran, and then, more and more, these sort of events started popping up for Castellanos. He hit a. He didn't get a home run, but he had a hit in spring training while the commentators were discussing blue jays pitching coach pete walker's dui. Uh. We also hit a home run during a heartfelt memorial day tribute at citizens bank park in march of 2022, and this led to people kind of fishing for other events in which castellanos hit maybe ill-timed home runs. They went all the way back to the day Osama bin Laden was killed and when Castellanos in the minor leagues, he hit a home run on that day. He hit one the same day as the Queen's death Queen Elizabeth and many other significant days, such as Trump's assassination as Trump's assassination. So when Pope Francis and it came out that he passed away, people flocked, because Castellanos tends to have home runs on days like today. David Payne Purdom at David Purdom, says Nick Castellanos did not home run. 

04:54
Tonight Sportsbooks cleaned up. Betmgm said there were more bets in Castellanos' home run than there were on any MLB team to win tonight. Rob said how many people are betting Castellanos ding-dong tonight? Jeff Benson works with Circa said he is getting roughly seven times the bets anyone else in the home run market is getting with us. And Ryan Butler at Butler Betts said Nick Castellanos hit a home run is the most bet MLB prop at DraftKings today. At ESPN Betts it is the most bet individual player prop across all sports, with more bets than on any individual prop for all NBA and NHL playoff games. Now we'll start with you, flop, because lots of people bet on Castellanos home run. I saw this one steam from like plus 750 everywhere, plus 700 everywhere, down to like plus 400, plus 500. But, flop, you had a different way of getting in on the action here. 

05:44 - Flup (Co-host)
Yes, I actually took the under. You know I like to fade the public in a lot of these kind of spots because there's no like logic here. This is just pure coincidence. You know. I'm sure Joey can talk about this, but with rivalry games or like must win games in college football, there can be actual real movement to a spread and you can actually see it impact the odds and probabilities. 

06:11
I just don't see how Nick is like oh yes, I'm not going to get a, I'm more likely to hit a homer today because the Pope's dead. It doesn't really make any sense to me. So my logic was quite simple. It doesn't really make any sense to me. So my logic was quite simple. He's priced around 8 to 1 normally to hit a homer. That's what he opened at. I said it seemed like a fair enough fair to me and I posted on an exchange under. I laid minus 625, and I thought the fair was minus 800. I'm happy to take as much action as my bankroll permits on that. I was able to get a little bit down and won a little bit there. So that's all I did for me. If someone wants to make the case that there's a boost to him, I would love to hear it, because I'm not seeing it. 

06:59 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I will say this is one of those rare now I would say only in the yes-no, but at a book like Circa or on an exchange, we always, like a bunch of people on this channel, have trolled the whole like fading the public. You know nomenclature over the years. This is one of the rare scenarios that it actually still has like some benefit here where if you have a yes, no market on this, like Circa is offering and they're getting that type of they're like over levered on one side you can act. Just get a legitimate plus ev bat, just strictly fading the public here. I it's. I can't believe. Like the, the legend of this has grown to the point of now like people have just backdated all these dates where he's hit home runs, um but it was just such a big meme when it first happened during the tom brenneman thing, the apology it was just for for over a year. 

07:53 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
It was a huge. 

07:53 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It's still funny to this day and that's where the legend has grown and now, yeah, right, and now people have gone back and like connected all the dots to all these other past dates, um, and it gets just this like insane amount of handle. I love, I love to. I got to get you know, tip my cap here to you know, before we go head to head on the fluff strategy here, you know, if I had some more you know liquidity at some no places, I would, I would have done the same thing there. 

08:22 - Flup (Co-host)
Well, you can't even bet because you're in Michigan. I mean, like that's the place I know that's the issue. 

08:29 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, that's the old issue here, uh, but I I loved it I want to put a little psa out there. 

08:35 - Flup (Co-host)
If you ever want to bet on a meme like this, please shop around. For the best price, mgm was offering 375 and, uh, you offering $625,000 on some of the exchanges. So come bet with me, not with MGM or the DraftKings of the world. 

08:53 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Well, that's the other side is on the places that we're offering a yes-no. It's just people just start lowering the price to where Castellanos is having the same odds as Aaron Judge and there's no no-market. 

09:07 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
So I'll hold my hands up here and say I had some change, some chump change on the home run to get involved. I did get plus $7.25, so it wasn't as if I was taking a shitty price. You can't really value the closing line value of something like that because it was just steamed so much that the closing line value is kind of irrelevant. But in the end I got a very, very good price relative to market. 

09:30 - Flup (Co-host)
I do want to bring up that, but it's a great point, Jacob, because I'm a big CLV truther. I think CLV matters a lot, but this is the time it doesn't matter. I got a very bad bet according to CLV, and Jacob got a very good bet. No way you're convincing me that my bet was negative. 

09:51 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I'm sure my bet wasn't, I'm sure it was negative EV, but just for a little bit of fun I was like you know what I'll jump in with the crowd. 

09:59
It then grew like I had this in the morning, obviously because it was plus 725, but as the day went on this became a bigger and bigger story and then I'm like OK, now I feel kind of more dumb for doing this, that I'm jumping with the crowd. But you know, it is what it is for stuff like this. This also reminds me of this is a soccer reference. I'm not sure you guys guess, but there was a soccer player who tended to score goals named Aaron Ramsey. He used to play for Arsenal Welsh midfielder who had a tendency to score goals on significant dates like this one. 

10:32
And I think at this point for Castellanos, it's become like we're searching for the coincidences. Like for a while it was kind of like okay, this is pretty funny how it just keeps happening, and now we're searching for coincidences that aren't really there. Like you could probably go back to a lot of dates and find a significant death to talk about for Castellanos. But A, I think it makes for some fun content in the betting space. But yeah, maybe not the most, plus EV bets. Do you guys think there's a viable strategy betting Castellanos in days like this? Do you think you can win money playing something like this no, this is what I was saying before. 

11:11 - Flup (Co-host)
Like if there's some logic that you can understand why he performs better, maybe, but like this is a case where you can't get that logic. In rivalry games or like must-win games, you can understand a price boost, but not here. It makes no sense. 

11:29 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
So how online do you think Castellanos is Like? Do you think you know, on a day like that, do you think he's aware of that? 

11:37 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Has anybody asked him about it? I don't know, like hey is there, but I don't follow baseball super close, so like, has anybody ever like brought this to? 

11:45 - Flup (Co-host)
him. Someone surely has to have told him like you're a huge meme whenever this yeah right. 

11:52 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I just wonder if he feels like the pressure for that game. All of a sudden he's like, wow, now all eyes are on me for this. I don't know. Yeah, I hope somebody has asked him and maybe we can look back later and see. I'm sure he's kind of played it down Like I don't worry about these things, I just play, but I don't know. I wonder if anything is in there On the same sort of topic here with the Pope. 

12:15
I know this is a betting show, but hey, we had a tweet from Hayden Goat. Hayden Goat said August 2019 bet placed. Almost six years later, we're finally live for some action, folks. And it's a quote tweet of his own tweet from a previous tweet in 2023, from a bet he made in 2019 on the next Pope and it's Cardinal Robert Serra. I guess I'm not well versed in this, but three and a half years after that bet he says it's been three and a half years Can we get a canceled bet at my bookie? Well, six years later now, live for some action here. I kind of wanted to have a conversation on these long, long-term bets. We know we talk about betting futures. That's like a year you have to wait at most. But how about like this sort of market where you don't even know when it's going to grade. 

13:09 - Flup (Co-host)
How do you guys feel about betting on stuff like that, like flop? Do you ever find yourself in these markets? Uh, ironically, yes. Uh, I I do bet on some, I do love betting on some futures and I I don't want to put, you know, promote. Right now we have our another sponsor, but calci. I was offering like interest, so I I've been trying to use that more because I think it really helps. 

13:25
If you have a long lockup, for like eight months, that's kind of like something you have to factor. You're losing expected value on your capital because it's being tied up. So even I mean it's funny in the comments of that tweet you sent, he talks about that price is much worse now. So he got CLV or if you want to say it. But like when you have to wait six years, like you know what could that $100 have done? So I think that's something to look into is how much is the capital worth A bet? That's plus 5% expected value, but you have to tie up your money for eight months. Probably shouldn't even place it, even if you're 100% confident that it's winning. 

14:09 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean I don't do anything. I would say the longest hold is just like seasons, like you know. I mean even MLB futures. Sometimes I got to have extra edge for what you're saying because of the long hold. So again, I still do like from college football, stuff like that. But anything where you're getting into multiple years, like you know, presidential races or any of this, or like this one doesn't even have like an hypothetical end date. There's just no. You know, if this guy lived for another 15 years, you're like where, where is my book? He's still going to be in business in 15 years. So there was, I will call it. 

14:48
It's not as prevalent now but for some time in the offshore world a lot of places would would kind of offer these as I'm not saying ways to get people that like scam people to tie up their money. Most of it, I think, was just marketing, uh. But similar thing where somebody you know put a bet on this and you know you might have it pending, for I think I had I've told this story on Rob's podcast Like I had the next James Bond pending when I thought it was going to be Idris Elba and like there was, I saw it on like TMZ or something, and then Daniel Craig re-upped for like three more movies, so it was like it was like six years. It was like six years it was like $100 to win like $1,000 or something, and it's been pending for like six years. 

15:29 - Flup (Co-host)
Is it still? 

15:29 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
pending now? I honestly think it is still. I have to log in. I think it is still pending because there has still not been another Bond post-Daniel Craig. That's still going. So yeah, I was going to say, if this bet outlives me, it rhymes with, you know, faze Mason, to give me re-void my bet and give it to my family. 

15:53 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I have seen other markets like which country will aliens invade first? 

15:59 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yes, that is the one I was thinking of. 

16:01 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
You will literally never get that great. I don't even know how that works. Maybe there's some rules on like if a bet's been pending for 10 years they'll just void it. I have no idea, but I'm sure we've all seen the website that does have that one up. I'll get you back to. 

16:15 - Rob Pizzola (Announcement)
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16:48
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17:18 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
CIRCLES. We'll move on to some exchange talk here. This is where we have our almost pitted against one another and this is why the dude didn't want to get in between anything here. Right and wrong is what we have. I'll get in the crossfire here. So it all started with this post here from Adam at the NHL Better, Better, as in B-E-T-T-E-R. Saying Honestly, PlayProfitX. This is bullshit. It's a screenshot of an email from ProfitX which says hello, we are reaching out to let you know that we have had a play canceled. In accordance with our too-good-to-be-true policy, your play on the series winner Jets or series winner Avalanche was matched at odds that were clear and obvious error. You can review the policy here with a link. Clear and obvious error. You can review the policy here with a link. Please let us know if you have any questions. It's a screenshot of colorado avalanche series winner uh, colorado at dallas. Uh, minus 139 and true price. 

18:15
Probably should have like the true price probably should bring like minus 330, if I'm not mistaken so, yeah, uh, very much way off, but still, you know, people make mistake bets all the time and Flop had a lot to say about this. Flop, our very own, quoted by saying this is an unbelievably horrible policy that opens up a horrible can of worms. I would strongly recommend not playing at profit until this policy is reversed. I had no idea this was in place. I'll be withdrawing all funds for refusing to play until this policy is gone. Had no idea this was in place. I'll be withdrawing all funds, refusing to play until the policy this policy is gone. Well, guess who? That alerted none other than joey knish, sitting with us as well. Knish replied wrong. You need some type of policy in place to prevent scammers from spamming bad lines and hoping somebody fills it. He bet an obvious pout will always be some level of subjectivity, but the policy needs to exist and you won't be withdrawing anything and will still use the platform, chris, did you? 

19:10 - Flup (Co-host)
actually withdraw all your money. I did initiate the withdrawal and then they got a resolution. They got a resolution and I can't, oh, so here. 

19:20 - Rob Pizzola (Announcement)
Hey but you were going to do it. 

19:22 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
You were going to do it. This is where the resolution occurred. It was actually on the elf spaces. First time in a while, maybe some positivity has come out of these elf spaces. As Jeffrey Benson also alluded to here, this was the best elf space in quite some time. Actually, talking through issues in the industry with people who have an ounce of common sense was very refreshing and, in the end, flop. You did withdraw your statement. You learned maybe more information about it and decided that they were in the right all along. So what was it about the spaces that changed your mind on this topic? 

19:59 - Flup (Co-host)
Mainly Alex Kane. Alex Kane, succinctly, was able to explain why you need the policy in place and for what it's worth. I still think it's close and I understand if you disagree with it. It's not like black and white. Maybe Joey thinks it's black and white, but the reason that he went through was with these market makers, which are very crucial to exchanges because they provide a lot of liquidity. 

20:24
They get data from like data providers and they're not 100% perfect. You know people could say, oh, get a better data provider. There's only a certain amount of options and it can never be perfect. What are you supposed to do? Send players to, or send like people to all the different games to get all the live odds and update like that? You can't do that, so you have to use some data providers and they're not perfect and if they make mistakes it can open up the market makers to a ton of negative EV bets and they don't want that because they're not even trying to free roll anyone. They're not acting in a scummy manner, they're just trying to provide a lot of liquidity and have a very tight market. 

21:07
And if you don't have this void policy and leave it open to subjectivity, then the market makers don't want to operate. And if they don't want to operate, you see an exchange with not a lot of liquidity, and if it doesn't have a lot of liquidity, most people want to take orders. They don't want to make orders and no one wants to play on the exchange and the whole model falls apart. So this is why, unfortunately, you need it. You can make the argument that, hey, maybe the market maker should take the L, they make so much money already. But I brought up another point, which is the thing about a sports book. Most of the lines are accurate. We, as bettors, find the one percent of bets that are inaccurate and we bound them for it how about you kanish? 

21:53 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
well, what was it about the initial statement that you, you felt as though this was the right side to be on all along? 

21:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
jacob put the turn this mic up with the camera. I mean, listen, this, alex kane, might as well be another word for Joey Kanish, and I have this on great authority of what actually happened is that once he saw that response, joey K put him in the dirt and he taught him a lesson of how the business actually works. Listen, fluff likes to use a lot of words, tweets a lot of words, says a lot of words. I just don't listen to any of it. It's Joey K Came at him, he set him straight and now, a couple of days later, I'm glad he's not still. You know, some people don't have the humility to. You know, double down, triple down on that and again, his reasoning here might not be the you know the real truth, but we finally got him straight and eventually he got to the correct solution. 

22:53 - Flup (Co-host)
This is. This is ridiculous. Joey, I know similar to you, know you're you like to move people, I know how you bet. Similarly, if you, if you're scrolling on D on draft kings and you see a, are you just not hitting it and going, oh you know, poor draft kings, let me not click it. And if I know you're clicking that palp and I know you're complaining if they void it, don't give me this maybe an old joey k, but a reformed, a man of the man of Joey K that you know believes in. 

23:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
you know the power of the business. No, you know what? Holy shit, I'm a little honorable. 

23:35 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
This is still a little confusing to me because, like, if somebody posts and convinces me, like I'm open to you know, understanding this side of it, but to me if somebody posts a bad line, that's their fault. If I make a bad bet, that's on me. If somebody makes a bad bet and I take advantage, like what's wrong with that? 

23:55 - Flup (Co-host)
This is why it needs to be subjective. It really depends. Take the Cassianas. Take the Cassianas bet. If I had placed under Homer at minus 6,250 instead of minus 625, I would expect that bet to be voided, because I did not mean to lay 62.5 to 1 on him to hit a homework and that liquidity would have been gobbled up in a matter of seconds. So for something like that, you could. You understand where they're coming from. It's clear what happened If I placed it like at minus a thousand, because I thought it was so unlikely, even though it's significantly off market probably shouldn't be voided, and that's why you need some subjectivity. But it's. I understand where you're coming from. It's an exchange. And what if you had armed out? Now you're coming from it's an exchange, and what if you had arbed out? Now you're screwed because you thought you thought you had a good bet. 

24:47 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
that's where we might even disagree is to me, if you're taking and I I believe this strongly. I ran into this when I was doing some prone for another book over at bet 105, where guys were betting some mistake lines but then they were arbing it out and once, then, once your, your actual bad line gets voided, now you're underwater, I think. Uh, I understand where you're coming from and that it's me. If you're taking an obvious pop, an obvious a line that you know is wrong and has some percentage of risk that it could be void, you can't arb it out, you gotta. I I'm not one that's like to are about anyway at this at this point in my career, but if you're taking something that's obviously off market, obviously wrong, you should not be going to another book and then, you know, at risk, up for the void so I think you're. 

25:41 - Flup (Co-host)
You're coming from a place of experience. Intelligence, yes, also true. But if I'm a new bettor that's been betting for a month, I just signed up to an exchange like a profit or a Novig or a sports trade, and I see a bet like this I have no idea that this rule is in place. I have no idea. I don't have the decades of Joey Kanish wisdom. I mean I don't know like, wow, this bet is so good, let me bet a lot here and then realize, well, maybe I overbet too much. I should arbor out a little bit and take a little off and have no idea. I think this is a totally realistic scenario with how many new people are entering the space all the time. Obviously, someone like you and me, we should know better. 

26:43 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Let me say from my perspective, because when I first started betting like actually knowing what I was doing three years ago, it was like right when legalization hit Ontario and there were so many books that entered market that were giving out these outrageous signup bonuses to compete with one another, I did not have, like it was my first, this was my first job, I didn't have the money to to maximize these bonuses properly. So my strategy some of the time was to play these bonuses against one another. Uh, so that I I would just okay, at least I can guarantee I'm getting at least one of these bonuses in in full, because I just didn't have. Obviously, if I could go back like that's one of my biggest regrets I could have built my bank roll significantly more, playing it probably, but I just didn't have the liquidity to do that. So without that understanding from myself, I could have been in this position as well, arbing now knowing what I know. Obviously you know I've had bets canceled in the past. I know this is a possibility, but I I can see from your perspective there. 

27:41
I would say maybe, like in the house, rules in some places, like you can't ARB. So if you get stiff by doing that. That's kind of on you. But there's also places like Bet105 that welcome when you use their platform to ARB, and that's where it gets a little bit more tricky for me. But yeah, I'm kind of with you. Flop, it's just. It's tough on both sides. There's a lot of pros and cons on each side. 

28:08 - Flup (Co-host)
So another thing that made me change my mind is I think Profit handled it in a good way. I wish they did this initially, but they did it at the end. They're not like the morons at PropSwap who double down, double down, double down. They decided to pay out the expected value of the palp and they voided it, so the person that placed the mistake line doesn't get it and they themselves took the loss. I think that's a fair and the right thing to do. 

28:36
And what I would also go further on is if those users you know Adam the NHL better if he ever bets another palp again, he's not getting his EV and on top of that I would probably say he's not using profit anymore, because he should know at this point that you don't take the palps because they get voided. And this is a one-time policy these exchanges do moving forward, which is, you know, as long as the loss isn't too massive that it would be detrimental to the company, pay it out and tell them hey, maybe they didn't know, maybe they're new, better we don't take these palps. Explain why it's a problem. Pay out the expected value. That way no one gets into real any trouble and then we can move on. 

29:24 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, they handled it very well, and I think you as well. I'll commend you. You handled it very well. To hourly say I've convinced the other side I was wrong about it Not a lot of people would do that. 

29:37 - Flup (Co-host)
I just want to make something very clear. Joey Kay had nothing to do with it. No, no, no. He had nothing to do with it. No, no, no. 

29:44 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
He had nothing to do with it. He planted the seed where you started getting a little bit. Oh wait, maybe I am wrong here. And then you know, eventually you landed on the right side of the fence. 

29:54 - Flup (Co-host)
I've got to listen to his idiotic takes and circle back all the time. If anything, it made me more convinced. I was right until Alex King came in. 

30:02 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Well, I'm sure Kanisha will have a lot to say about this topic. Here we're moving on to Lee Corso retiring. This sparked a story from Twitter user Johnny Detroit at Johnny underscore Detroit, who said True story. Back in the day when the offshore sportsbook five dimes was around, they used to have a prop bet where you could bet what hat for the big game Corso would put on during game day on Saturday. We had a guy that worked for the crew and so the spot could be planned and coordinated. We had to. He had to tell them. On Thursday he used to tell as soon as he found out. We had a small circle who was involved. Of course it was. 

30:37
Do not tell anyone. Do not tell anyone, as usually turns into telling someone and that and then them telling somebody else. About a month or so into the season you would see Corso prop like Alabama minus 150 and Auburn plus 120. We find out within 15 minutes. The odds would be at like Alabama minus 2,500. That prop was short-lived on five dimes. Enjoy retirement, corso. It was a pleasure to watch you, sir. Okay, I don't know a lot of the backstory here, but Kanish, I'm told, may have some thoughts on this. 

31:08 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Well, one this guy like lives like I don't know, like I know he lives around the area, like 15 minutes from me and he's been involved with WagerTalk since like the jump. So I know him and I'll save those thoughts for another day On this. I remember this thoroughly of like where it got out. I don't even buy it that it was one of his guys, I think it was somebody else. Then it was beating them the info. So I know he wants to sound like he was, like you know, the ringleader here. I don't think that was the case, but I recall this. 

31:49
Or where every week, on five dimes, you would have maybe 10 or 15 minutes. The word would get out and get dropped on. I don't even know if Telegram was around. I think I was using, like you know, maybe maybe text message or something, or like a carrier pigeon, If I can get back when this was happening but and the word would get around and then it would steam to like minus five. You know five thousand minus fifty, now granted at five. 

32:15
This I think the limit on these was like maybe it started out as like one hundred bucks and within like a week or two, is twenty five bucks or something like that Maybe it started out as like a hundred bucks and within like a week or two it was 25 bucks or something like that. So the grandiose scam here that this was like you were making more than like a few hundred dollars off. This was a little bit overstated. But also is a great way for Tony to, you know, hack your account and then, you know, be petty, be betting, you know 10 cents or whatever you get after that. So, yeah, good story, but I hate to you know rain cents or whatever you'd get after that. So, yeah, good story, but I hate to you know rain on the parade a little bit. If it was Joey Kay's story I would gloss it up much more and you know say it was for, but for the, you know, the actual king of Detroit, joey Kay. Yeah, this is. I got to poke a few holes through this. 

33:02 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
So I was going to ask why they would even leave this market up if, like they knew, people were just going to smash it every Thursday or whatever it was. But then you kind of brought up the point like dude would a sportsbook leave this sort of market up to find the people? Yes, to send those big limits forward? You know exactly where you're going with it. 

33:21 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It's to then find if you bet this limits. You know exactly where you're going with it. It's to then find if you bet this, then you know, like it was a. It was basically like, uh, you know like a trap out there where tony's, like you know, it's like laying a little, uh, sucker, I get a little bait out there for the sucker to come and grab it after it's up and then you know if you're betting the right side on that for two weeks you've got a circle of information. You're probably in a, you know, a sharp circle. We got to cut this guy's account. So, yeah, uh, and I wouldn't say that at like, that was one of the rare bookmakers and one of the rare books that I would say, like I'm not a pozzola would think this has happened at like every book in the history of the world. One of the rare instances where I don't think that's a conspiracy theory. I think that's actually what was was happening. There was why they left that out. 

34:07 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Tony was the lead trader at Five Dimes at the time right. Yeah, yeah actually the owner Just for our audience that isn't familiar. 

34:18 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, isn't as old as me and you know, yes, Isn't as well-versed, we'll say Great, great, yes, appreciate that. 

34:27 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Anything for you, flip yeah. 

34:30 - Flup (Co-host)
This makes me think about the NFL draft odds and it's like why do books have these information markets up? I understand the point of you could limit customers and whatnot, the point of, like you could, you could limit customers and whatnot. But why does like a book like circa, who doesn't limit customers in that in that regard, have these information markets up? All they do is get killed on them because they're all information based and they can't possibly compete with the information of the betters. I don't understand why they have them open. I mean, joe, do you, do you understand why? I would love to hear your thoughts there. 

35:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So, a little inside, one from a little birdie told me that Circa actually had to have two people on it full time last year. They actually didn't lose on the draft last year but it took, I mean, the ROI involved for that to happen was obviously not worth it, and so I think you've seen them this year. Just offer, you know, $300 limits. Raise the juice in that. I think there's an element of you kind of want to keep your you know your GRP pancakes guys happy Of your rec player that wants to score a little on the draft. You allow them to get a little appetite. You know, unfortunately Jacob's going to have to. He's going to be eating, you know, apple pancakes and sausage or whatever it is for losing the contest. 

35:57 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I don't know what it is. Banana and marinara have been floated around as my meal. Banana and maple syrup has also been pitched as my meal. I don't know what it is yet. 

36:05 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, whatever, whatever it has to be I, I go ahead, I, oh I, honestly I had thought about I'd actually talked with the offshore once about like thinking like, hey, I'll trade the draft, like, pay you, pay me a consulting fee, I'll trade the draft, me and a couple people, uh, over the course of it, you learn never materialized. 

36:24 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
You learned the side that you want to play somewhere else. 

36:28 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It really wasn't that I would be more apt to do it now that the draft isn't as liquid and as profitable as it used to be for me, just to try it out. But yeah, it's. I will say I think there's some element of you kind of people feel like they have to have it, but the offerings and the liquidity is a lot different than it used to be Maybe it's just like a loss leader. 

36:51 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
It's, in a way, like a promotional tool. I think most places look at it like that, are there for, like you crushed the draft, you're going to put that money back in and if Circa is confident in their prices, the money that's going to put that money back in, and if circa is confident in their prices, the money that's going to be filtered back in is going to equate to that player losing more money than they would have had they not offered the draft. Props to begin with me is that's, that's only five reason that seems like a very valid uh explanation. 

37:17 - Flup (Co-host)
I I don't know. It's actually a more complicated question than I think people realize and I'm sure people a lot smarter than me have already figured it out, and there's a reason why they have it up. We have, yes, maybe it's just bad PR. 

37:29 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I don't know, yeah, whatever I wouldn't know. So maybe I'm not the right guy to say on this, but let's go to the comments here. Three pretty good ones here from well, actually I'd say two good. This one sucks. This is a really bad first one. This is from Simone Hunter making another appearance on the show. Simone and his brother Simon two of my favorite people, Joey K with the best football and gossip show. 

37:57 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Is this the Hammer Network or the Joey K Network? I tell you what, simon, you better have Moreto pay up with the new contract, or there's going to be no. Or Joey K is going to be. You better have Moreto pay up with the new contract, or there's going to be no. Or Joey Kaye is going to be. You know, it's going to be me and Simon, it's going to be the football brothers. It's going to be me, millman and Simon Hunter going three talking about how Pozzola used to win at hockey and now he can't. Now he has to run a content network because he can't have it anymore. So yeah, I tell you what, simone, I appreciate it, you nailed it and let's just say you relay that to my agent, because it's going to be a little wealthier fall for Joey Kay. 

38:32 - Flup (Co-host)
These comments with the insane glaze, these are just ridiculous. I mean Simone Hunter, your burner, joey, what's? 

38:39 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
up. I tell you, simone, I don't hate it as far as a burn. If he tell you what? If this guy starts getting in Rob's comments like Zilbert and letting him have it, I'll be, I'll glaze Simone right back. 

38:54 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I do hate, like it's not a hate, it's like a cringe thing. When somebody calls it a gossip, show it just. I don't know, maybe it's like sarcastic. 

39:04 - Flup (Co-host)
It is a gossip show. It just I don't know. Maybe it's like sarcastic. It is a gossip show, yeah. 

39:08 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I don't know it. Just when I hear the word gossip, I think about, you know, the girls at the high school cafeteria table. I don't know. I feel like it just very incredibly diminishes the show on the outside looking, I don't know, you guys seem fine with it. 

39:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So maybe, listen, put on the outside looking I don't know that you guys seem fine with it. So maybe, listen, day a big, put the uh, you know, start start texting one of your girls at the high school table here. That uh, you know, create some drama. So I got no issue with it it is what it is. 

39:37 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Um, people like to watch, so we keep doing it all right at pesty coach. The second comment here says I stay out of the Twitter space, but everything I've heard about Manda Library is that it's a complete clown. Kanish, you're very vocal about agreeing with this. Anything to add? 

39:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean, I would say if you thought, the one thing that you should be totally certain of about Manda Library, if you follow these spaces for the last month, is that he's flat broke. And I I mean just like maybe if you're going at three in the morning or you're like a single parent and you're going to get your ass beat by some 21 year old kid for 1500 at midnight vegas time or whatever it was, I don't think he got a pot to piss in, and so I listen whether he's like selling plays or used to be a poker, but I don't even know. Like I wouldn't be, I don't even make a living here. So, uh, yes, I, I strongly agree. Double tap, like that comment. 

40:38
Uh, that you want to call him a complete clown? Uh, yes, and so it's all a grandiose scheme of bullshit. Everything he said for, like since he's been around, has been absolute bullshit. Uh, and I think the guy fifteen hundred dollars. What is his net worth right now? Probably fifteen hundred dollars minus whatever he spent already from it like, like I said last week, it it's, it's. 

41:02 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
It's not about the amount of money, it's just the amount of money he claims to have, the amount of money he claims to bet. Right, right, you would think he wouldn't even like take a second look at $1,500. 

41:12 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm a black belt and then, all of a sudden, I'm in the corner getting tuned up by, you know, a 20-year-old Jewish kid. So I mean they had different headgear. That's why. Yeah, that was it, that was the difference. 

41:26 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Yeah, Klopp, you're in the spaces. A lot Anything to add on man of the library. 

41:30 - Flup (Co-host)
I mean, I think Joey's read is spot on. This is one of the few times where I think Joey's correct and I would agree with him. But I will say I don't think he's that broke. I bet his net worth is higher than $1,500. I mean he does have like the winnable that's got money coming in. But I think, like you said, that was such a mismatch. I mean you look at the two people next to each other. You know you're going to get an ass beating. And if your number is $1,500, how rich can you really be? Look, I would definitely take an ass beating. 

42:10 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Beat up. I hear you, yeah, but my number is my number better not be $1,500. 

42:14 - Flup (Co-host)
Exactly, my number is much bigger than $1,500. But I'll definitely, and that's, you can just. 

42:21 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I see Jacob over there. Jacob's is like 500. I see him looking at the way, the way he's brought up. I said it. 

42:27 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I was over that last week. I'm like 1500. Like I think I'd do well in the fight, but let's say I was in. Like with my finance stats. Yeah, I'd probably take $1,500, but I don't claim to be, I don't claim to be the rich sports better. He's betting $1,500, apparently one and a half units, like yeah, if you offer me one and a half units, I'm probably not showing up. 

42:51 - Flup (Co-host)
That's another thing. I don't get Claims to bet tens of thousands and mid-five figures or whatnot, or high four figures, but $1,500 is 1.5 units. What is it? 

43:03 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
It's not like that. $1,500 is a small amount of money. It's that for him, the way he talks it is yes, it should be for him. That's the point, anyways, yeah, but lots of hate to him in the comments. And a final comment here from underscore Arkell7374. It says great idea to have the live NFL draft watch along. We'll definitely be watching that. Please try to get Jeff for the Chargers pick. 

43:29
So yes, on Forward Progress going to be tonight, the day you're watching this Thursday NFL draft watch along on the Forward Progress YouTube channel at FWDProgressHQ. Just type in Forward Progress. We're big enough that you'd be able to find it there. 8pm Takes by Jay Jason. I just type in Ford progress. We're picking up that. You'd be able to find it there. 8. Pm takes by J Jason Cooper. Going to be hosting that. Lots of special guests, including Jeff Feinberg. However, jeff will be on the show, but we are trying to get him to be on for the charges Pick. He refuses to be on for the charges Take because of how, how stressed he gets over the NFL draft and who they pick over the NFL draft and who they pick. You guys, football fans, do you have that level of stress when you're team picking, I'll be on the show as well. 

44:10 - Flup (Co-host)
I'm hoping to get on the Jets because I'm a huge Jets fan. But what I don't understand is how can you have stress? Do we really think that us, as casual fans, we know more than the team? I mean, I don't know more than the Jets organization. Maybe you could say, oh, the Jets organization is so incompetent. 

44:27
Maybe I do there's some bad picks, sure, but how am I supposed to judge Like one random person is supposed to judge, more than like the tens of scouts and the general manager that spend the hundreds of, if not thousands, of, hours on the draft? I mean, let's be real here. It's a fun experience. If you're stressed and you think your team made a mistake, I think you got to rethink things. 

44:52 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I would say, you know, like when Matt Millen was running our organization and we were like the stupidest team in the history of football, the draft would stress me out a lot more because I'd be like what pick are we going to do? Like when we you know this is dating myself, but like when we took our third straight first round wide receiver with mike williams and you're like this is the dumbest pick in the history of the draft, um, among other things, and so, yeah, that, no, no well joey, if I do recall. 

45:19 - Flup (Co-host)
I do remember a draft where they took a, the second art, running back in like the first 12 picks and then a middle linebacker, the first round. 

45:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That I don't know what your thoughts on that were, but you know, I just just my thoughts were that running back's going to be an all pro and that linebacker will continue to develop for a great organization. Uh, as I I don't recall your tweets expressed that same viewpoint we, I don't, we don't have any documentation of that on the show. So let's say and just like I said, I was always a Dan Gamble believer from the jump as well, oh yeah, I'm sure there would be nothing out there that would say anything else I don't think so Not that I can recall. 

46:00 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
All right, we'll move on to the next segment. Here we have CBlez returning to the show after a long while. Here, seabless is a pick seller that we see oftentimes on gambling Twitter, and one of the tweets recently that popped up was brought up by FrankRambo24 at JasonWilliamsI7, who's very frequently versed in Gameter as well, who sent a screenshot of C-Blez's lifetime VIP package of $999. And he says what is his life expectancy? A lifetime VIP package. Who knows how long that will last? But based on some of the tweets we see from C-Blez, we have to wonder if that is a profitable purchase to make. 

46:45
In another tweet, c-blez, at BlezBez, said I average $20,000 in sports bets every single day. That's $140,000 a week, $560,000 a month, $6,720,000 in handle a year. It's great that he can do simple math. My edge is around 7% in 2025, which puts me on pace to profit five hundred thousand dollars. I'm not sure about that. Also had a tweet from the indiana pacers game in game one against the bucks. Uh, it was a minus 235 on the money line. He bet six thousand dollars. I will give him a credit because he does. He does typically have slips for stuff, but you could argue you know, are there slips that we don't see. But he says do not cash out. Seasons is offering $8,184 for a cash out on a max payout of $8,553. They're up 24 at halftime. I will gladly wait 24 minutes at basketball to collect their $368. 

47:40
And the final one here most content creators are playing a character. That will never be me. I believe in authenticity. I'm the same in real life and on the internet. Content creators content characters, he says are always short-lived because they need to think what their character would do. Say how do we feel on the Seabless? Not a character. I would call him a character, but apparently not a character. How do we feel about Seabless here? Flup. 

48:07 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Oh yeah, go ahead, you're ready to go no, I was just gonna say content creators are short-lived. This guy had like the shortest live living run in the history of like gambling twitter. He was on it like three days and then he like the same chick and nobody gave a shit after that. 

48:21 - Rob Pizzola (Announcement)
So I don't even know why we're talking about this idiot now. 

48:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I thought of the rundown it's like I don't give a shit guy. You know, what else bothers me is he's in the I'll call it the circle of Perry where, like, if you start putting some like dots together around this, like you know, the the space where, like he's all he's at the Perry fight, he's using the same type of stick to try and build himself up. He's buying followers on other apps. 

48:46
I, I listen. I don't know why this guy bothers me more than most, but it's like the lamest stick ever to try, and you know, with the thing that he was using and it was so dead it was like not funny. It's like we can talk about the spaces, whatever stick they're using, but if it's entertainment, you know what? I think there's a whatever it can be, you know cost of entertainment. This guy is the worst. Not funny, not original lame schick, obvious scammer. Get him out. Last time. Last time he's on circle back until unless someone you know kills him in a ring or something. 

49:23 - Flup (Co-host)
Well, I hate to keep the streak going, but I have to agree with Joey again here. Blaise is very annoying, annoying, and I think something else we didn't talk about without found funny is the lifetime package. This, this reminds me of the, you know, the pope bet for six, for six years. 

49:37 - Rob Pizzola (Announcement)
We don't know, we don't know what we need. 

49:39 - Flup (Co-host)
Like he said, what's his life expectancy? We don't know how long it lasts. And then another thing I wanted to point out is this has always irked me a little bit, but as as a pro bettor or as like a bettor with an edge, in theory, you should not know if you're going to ever be able to make another bet again. Tomorrow. I could wake up and the market could be completely efficient and I could have no more bets. And if I'm truly a profitable bettor and have an edge, I would not be able to make a bet because there's no more bets there. So to say that, just for him to do that math, it shows a lack of understanding, because how do you know if the market is going to increase efficiency Now? Obviously it will never be that extreme, but maybe his bets go down a little bit. My bets have gone down over periods of time and then gone back up because the market has gotten more and less efficient. 

50:31 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
All the science points towards this being a losing matter. If you buy picks from this guy, maybe there is no saving you and there's no point of even trying to save you at this point. 

50:42 - Flup (Co-host)
They talked about it a lot earlier in the B team. But he uses a lot of like sharp lingo or language, so you think he's good. But if you really think about it and you dive a little deeper, you realize what like algorithm. Yeah, no, he said CLV, but he said like CLV Okay, or like if you look at some of these spaces, they'll get those touts up and they'll be like what's CLV? You know that should be like the number one sign or what's your edge, and then they don't have it Exactly, exactly. So he and at least Seablood can at least answer some of those. But if you dive just a little bit deeper, you know not winning. 

51:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, and I mean the lifetime packs is like who's to say he can't just disappear tomorrow. Yes, that's usually what happens with somebody offering a lifetime package is they're trying to get something from you and then, a year and a half later, when they're totally bust, you never see the person again. 

51:43 - Flup (Co-host)
I don't think that's what it is, but it's just like it could be Right, it could be, and you don't think that's that's what it is, but it's just like it could be right, it could be and you don't know other people right, there's no guarantee that he sticks around for so long. What if he gets bored in seven years and quits? You know, did you get your expected value or whatnot? 

51:58 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Yeah, exactly, we'll move on to the next topic. Just a second here. We'll interrupt for a word from one of our sponsors here on the channel. Ever had your deposit blocked right before a big bet? Ever needed cash at 2 am for another shot at the tables, but you hit your ATM limit? Listen, I've had experiences like this, so I'm sure you have had them as well. You never know when you're gonna get that message about a big edge somewhere. You've gotta fill your account quickly before it evaporates and you just can't get that money in there in time. Your bank blocks your deposit. Maybe you get the deposit through, but it takes 30 minutes for that deposit to process and all of a sudden you can't get down on that huge edge that you wanted. Well, that situation arises no more with Edge Boost. 

52:38
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53:37
Before we jump into our next topic as well, hey, if you're enjoying the show you've made it this far, you definitely are enjoying. Make sure you do smash that like button. Subscribe to the channel for shows like this. Every typically Tuesday and Friday one day early today because of the NFL draft, as we said. Every typically Tuesday and Friday one day early today because of the NFL draft, as we said, but plenty of great content on Circles Off. If you're listening in podcast form. Take a moment to rate and review five stars as well. It makes a huge difference to helping us grow our brand. All right. 

54:02
Next topic here comes from Spinfluencer, who we've featured a lot on Circle Back in the past. But there was a new serious post that came out from Spinfluencer. Post that came out from Spinflinster. Spinflinster known for kind of doing similar to what this show does in the way of calling out the worst of the worst from gambling Twitter, not afraid to call people out who are scamming and things of that nature. But a serious post here. I'll read it out I lost my job last week due to my former company downsizing. I'm going to be fine, but maybe this is a blessing in disguise for me to branch out and take sports betting content more seriously. If you have any interest in working together, whether it's podcast appearance, brand management, social media marketing etc. Please feel free to reach out to me in the DMs. Let's schedule a time to talk this week. Now the people that he's called out in the past had some fun with this tap dancing on his grave Taylor Mathis, who had some beef. 

54:46
Taylor Mathis, who had some beef. Taylor Mathis, who gives out picks the famous slash, infamous walking bet segment who has had her fair share of controversies, especially with Spinfluencer said previously from winning a poll against the Novik influencer bracket good always prevails over evil after she had to go extensively into her arsenal of followers to beat out an account in SpinFlinter that had 5,000 followers. I thought that was amazing. But then quote tweets that, after SpinFlinter got canned and it says LOL, and I was right Also tweeted this. This tweet got deleted. Thank you to Clive Bixby for screenshotting it. Thank you, clive Says. The karma of this. I would never root for the downfall of anyone, even though that's exactly what she just did, or for anyone to be unemployed, which she kind of just did. 

55:36
This guy made a page based on hating sports content creators, exposing them. Now he's going to take content more serious. How ironic. So in this scenario, the good that Taylor Mathis came to, the good person in this side of it apparently is Taylor Mathis, who at worst had involvement in promoting a crypto scam in her name. That's at best sorry. At best had involvement in promoting a crypto scam in her name. At worst orchestrated such a crypto scam. 

56:07
So the good I'm not sure Amanda Vance also had something to say here. Amanda Vance with the Amanda Wins website, who sells picks, I would say, and many others say, these are not winning picks and they're losing picks and this is a scam. But also was tap dancing a little bit on Spinfluencer's grave, saying that the irony is real. And then some other people had some fun with it, said I will pay you 10k right now to delete your account forever. Up the bid to 20k. And right before we started this recording kanji c-a-n-z. Zed, zed, z-h-i showed my Canadian there y-e, I'll add 10k. 30k to delete your account. Never tweet again. In parentheses your annual EV on futures being the 30K. I'll start with this Listen, I like the Spinfluencer page. Listen, spinfluencer, you want to get more into content creation. That's great. I honestly would be a little surprised if you can make 30K. Prove me wrong, please. I think you'll struggle to make 30K out of content creation from Twitter. 30k seems like a pretty good price to delete your Twitter account. I don't know. 

57:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah. I would delete the account immediately if I was like that's like if you're jobless and the only guy who's got like 5 000 followers, pull the trigger. 

57:37 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Pull the trigger, forgive me 30, since he does say he's he's fine financially. He's not in a position of peril. That's not what I'm suggesting this, but like I think the ev of this account is not thirty thousand dollars, no also I'm gonna be honest with you here. 

57:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
They, the, the seeing this post got like the cringe, like I like shivered a bit I saw your reply I like I was like oh no, you're like this, I listen. The internet rule. Feinberg talks about the rules of the internet. If you're going to make a page like shitting on other people which I got some entertainment out of, I'm not going to lie, but I don't mind the page at all you don't want to then post your real life downfall, because I tell you what? Then you're letting all the wolves you know, like there was blood in the water. 

58:31 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
He's owned it. He's owned it Like he's sticking up for himself in this. He knew this. I'm sure he knew this was going to happen. I'm sure he knew there'd be backlash. He probably relished that for engagement, like no issue with that Owning it, not upset that people are tap dancing on his grave or anything, but yeah, upset that people are are tap dancing on his grave or anything. 

58:49 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
But um, yeah, that, jacob. That's a little bit of like sean perry logic there where, like all you know the whole sure publicity. I'm not with that, the type of I think you can come out and say I'm gonna try and do more count or something like that, without I probably wouldn't have done this approach. Fair. No me neither. I would not have said the uh. 

59:10 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Hey I, by the way, now I'm unemployed and uh it seems, yeah, it seems like more of like uh, it's not that it is desperate, but it looks like it's a desperation attempt to venture into content rather than naturally Okay, the chat. Okay, the chat. The page is growing, the the twitter account's growing, let's try to uh, let's try to up this even further. Um, but the way in which it's laid out here, um, I don't know, I don't think this was a goal, but it kind of gets a sense of like you know, like are people watching out of pity, almost like I don't know it's I feel bad for, like the Amanda Vance one, that was pretty brutal. 

59:49 - Flup (Co-host)
I mean because she's so obviously selling losing picks and I understand why he attacks her, but it's like that looks so scummy coming from her but obviously from her point of view she's just like selling winning picks and she's not doing anything wrong. 

01:00:08 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I don't think she thinks she's selling winning picks. I think that's where the problem is, okay. 

01:00:13 - Flup (Co-host)
Fair enough. If that's the case, then it makes it even worse. The Taylor Mathis one I kind of understand because he was more attacking, like the walking bets kind of thing, and I don't get the harm in what she's doing with that, but even so like it's pretty hypocritical for her to say I don't root for the downfall. 

01:00:33
She has very publicly lost a position recently, not a job, but like a sponsorship position and it's also very hypocritical for her to say I don't root for the downfall, come on, you keep tweeting like, oh, I don't root for the downfall. Why are you rooting for the downfall? Come on Like. You keep tweeting like, oh, I was right, I mean, come on Like this is ridiculous. 

01:00:56 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
And listen for me, like Taylor Swift does not root for the downfall I would I do root on people's downfall. That's why I like to do this show, because I do root for people's downfall and I do find a lot of humor in it. For some people, uh, but obviously, yes, she does too, but she doesn't own up to it. Uh, that's just crazy, especially like the the evil being called like the the good, the claims the good that she claims to be. She, like she was heavily involved in a crypto scam in her name and rightfully got called out for it. But anyways, that that story's been been long exhausted at this point, um 30k I don't know, 30k seems like a pretty good I, I, yeah, I'd agree if I'm him cut the check yeah. 

01:01:45
What does this entail, though? Does you know what? Whatever just makes a youtube account. Instead, does he have to completely go away from twitter altogether, just can he use his own personal account, which uh, uh has been also take the money. 

01:01:59
Ask questions later maybe like pull a zilbert and just get you'll. You'll delete the account, but you'll just wait a little bit more to get the money up. When Zilbert was showing the bet slip, he always was going to show it. But okay, he can play along a little bit more, get a little bit of extra money out of it. I think SpinFitter can get to $50K on this, and if he does, Someone. 

01:02:23 - Flup (Co-host)
I saw a tweet just before hopping the show said maybe he's smarter than all of us because he's got up to 30,000 and most of us would have taken it for 10 and they're issues, so you know if he gets. If he gets even more, maybe he's the biggest genius of of gambling Twitter. 

01:02:39 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Now, as somebody who was willing to fight for 1500, I probably wouldn't delete an account for 10 K out of just your pride, but 20, 30 K. 

01:02:52 - Flup (Co-host)
Yeah, you may, may you may not hear from me. Well, speaking of it, I wonder how much can we pay library to delete his account? That would be something I'd love to know that'd be an interesting test. 

01:02:58 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I would not be able to take part, but uh, yeah, I would love to see some offers be thrown out. Um, from from spot, there are worse accounts to to ask to like to pay to have them delete their account than spinfluencer, I'd say. I, I like the spinfluencer account. Uh, look, I. I think some good content could come out of this. I just I'm not sure it'll make thirty thousand dollars. Uh, like it's. Content creation is tough. Uh, I do it myself on on the side of hammer stuff. Like it's a lot of work for especially, you know, this is not a lot of rewards. So is it an investment of? Okay, if I make content creation full time, maybe that leads to a job that pays more than $30,000. Because that's what it was to me. Like that's how I got, that's how Rob, I got in contact with Rob doing my own content up front. So maybe that's the direction. I'm not sure. 

01:03:50 - Flup (Co-host)
Whoa, are you admitting that you make more than $30,000 a year? That's a big, big player right there. 

01:03:55 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I was going to say this is my full-time job. 

01:04:00 - Flup (Co-host)
I'm making a joke. 

01:04:02 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
We might have to have some. It's just like what I'm saying is, when I started creating YouTube content, yes, I thought, okay, maybe there's a little bit of money here, but more so, it was just basically a portfolio of my capabilities in content creation which helped me land the job. 

01:04:17 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
And now you're doing a gossip show. And now I'm living the dream I get to talk to. 

01:04:22 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Joey Kanish and Chris Dierkus once a week about the latest gossip on Twitter. Who knew this would be my life? But uh, enjoying it along the way, all right, we'll move on to the chopping block. Bringing the chopping block to the, a team over here got a few tweets mixed in here. First of all, I wish we had nadoo for this one, because mike vivian called him out on Twitter. 

01:04:46
Said. The highlight of this episode, which was the last week episode, was Nadeau not listening to anything Knish said regarding big Moneyline favorites and repeating everything he said. Nadeau well, the photo here because Nadeau got mad and I think he called Mike Viv a douche. Mike Viv found the video clipped in and said now there's a video version even better to the person that Nadeau is dozing off. But again, I am a moron so don't laugh please. And it's a video of Nadeau looking like he might be dozing off. Here's a photo here of him with his eyes closed as Kanish was talking. Now, listen, I know Kanish might get a little bit boring from time to time, but I don't know. I don't think nidu is was dozing off. What he was doing was probably texting, and then I did notice in the episode he kind of repeated what was said. Yes, he just wanted to share his opinion, which which I guess is fine as well. But kanish, what do you, what do you think on this? 

01:05:43 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
you know what, as you were recording last week, I was like it like crossed my mind. It's like didn't you just say, like, didn't I just say that like it was like. It was like literally about fesic betting like college basketball, like long waves, and then they do was like even fesic. I was like what, what? But uh, you know, listen, I love mikey v. Uh, the clip the clip out of me. It's like fucking hilarious because, like for a second there it does look like he's kind of dozing off. Maybe this is the. You know they do Hashtag, they do. 

01:06:12 - Flup (Co-host)
You know we're cutting into his nap time here with the recording time, so I don't know, maybe that's why Maybe the Internet down is really a code for you know to do nap time. 

01:06:23 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Yeah, yeah, or like you know I think the show runs long because Kanish always makes us start late and cuts into that's his nap time, that's right? 

01:06:31 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, he was trying to get to bed early and you know what? It was my fault. 

01:06:35 - Flup (Co-host)
I like to do. This was pretty funny from Vivian. Vivian takes the W on this one for me. I think it's hilarious. 

01:06:44 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Because he can't defend himself here. He'd probably own up to just being on his phone not paying attention to that and repeating what he said. But yes, a fun catch there from Mike Vivian, who finds a lot of fun catches like that from the shows. The next tweet here comes from Ryan Ribeiro. Ryan, double underscore, ribeiro. Zootopia 2 has better odds to win Best Picture at the Oscars than the Dallas Cowboys do to win the Super Bowl. It's a screenshot of the Cowboys plus 7,500 to win the Super Bowl. Zootopia 2 plus 6,500 for best picture at the 98th Academy Awards. Uh, oh boy, I wish Rob was here to to talk about his Cowboys here. 

01:07:27
But as funny, funny as it is, when I see tweets like this, unfortunately the fun is stripped out just because, like I know, there's so much of a house edge on like a best picture market that, like, if you actually de-vig, this Zootopia doesn't have as good of odds. It's like let's go back to like the aliens invading Earth thing, where it's like all right. Back to the aliens invading Earth thing, where it's like all right, you know what a better example is. This drives me fucking crazy. When an NBA account will post the odds of Joel Embiid's next team and the Raptors are favored, but it doesn't include the Sixers. It's if he leaves the Sixers. So people because I do Raptors kind of be like the Raptors have a, because it's like plus 400, the Raptors have a 25% chance of landing Joel Embiid or whatever I'm like. No, they have maybe a 0.0001% chance of getting him, but if he does leave the Sixers, then it becomes this percentage. Go ahead, yeah, go ahead. Flop. 

01:08:28 - Flup (Co-host)
It's a very good point and um, not to be a dick, but plus 400 is 20 percent not. Yeah, I knew I was, I knew I as soon as I said, I knew it was gonna be I don't want. 

01:08:38 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I gotta get it before mike vivian tweets it like yeah, jacob can't do basic math, you know yeah after I made fun of sea bloodsods and I got roasted last week for talking about betting as well. Anyways. 

01:08:51 - Flup (Co-host)
I personally love tweets like this because it's just like, it's just funny. You don't have to think it's not some deep meaning or anything like that, it's just funny. It's probably not the most accurate because, like you said, the lines are kind of fake and don't really mean much this far out, but it's still hilarious to me to think about and you know, as a jets fan, I can only imagine how much worse we are than the cowboys. 

01:09:14 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So have you guys seen that? I don't even know. It's the first time I've ever heard of that movie like in when I saw you I actually did not know. 

01:09:21 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I mean, maybe it's coming out me neither. Yeah, next one I uh, this could be. 

01:09:25 - Flup (Co-host)
You know, this, is this a? Is this a? Is this a new way to originate? You watch a movie and then you go bet on it. 

01:09:30 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
If, depending on how, you know this movie comes out in November. If, like, you got like a, I guess, would any people from the Academy have a pre-screening of it? Cause, like I guess you could maybe go into movie and go. That was way better than it was supposed to be. Maybe there's actually a little bit of clv betting this, I don't know. There's probably such a big house edge that you, you can't get a good price on it. But I don't know, maybe maybe there's an edge in in the movie business for for stuff like this. Uh, also like stuff like this. Another example is when, like, uh, like, a chinese basketball team becomes like one of the top four favorites for the next team, for an NBA player, it's like he has a 10% chance of ending up in China. That kind of stuff, I don't know. Just yeah, it just frustrates me. I don't know why it, just it just does. 

01:10:18
Anyways, next one up here from book at Trent, probably the biggest mush, he says on April 16th, I bet my entire net worth vladdy doesn't go yard today. Uh, it was like the 17th game of the season. Vladimir guerrero jr had yet to hit a home run and it was becoming now, all of a sudden, people were like okay, at a certain point like it actually, you should just maybe bet this. Is it too good of a price for vladdy hit a home run? Uh and uh, of course, vladimir guerrero jr hits his first home run of the season the same day, but get trent tweets this. I found it especially funny because I was one of the people who had uh, yeah, I'll pass post here, but I had vladimir guerrero to hit a home run that day, which made it even funnier. But how does he keep doing this? How does he keep finding ways to do this? 

01:11:08 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I love, love that I'm going to take this just in a random direction Is that, like Trent plays this, you know like character kind of lovable loser thing that like the one person that actually got him to crack was Zilbo. Like Zilbo annoyed him so much that he actually like went back at him in like in like an angry, like totally outside of his normal like tweet structure and tone. Uh, yeah, I listen, this is a uh, the little castellanos ish from, uh, from trent, but his main thing but, um, yeah, credit, uh, I, I know the other show got most of this, but I, I was thinking of that when they were discussing it that like the guy's been playing like the same role on twitter for years and the one person that got him to actually like break and like say something negative was like zilbo yeah, I, I think trent's hilarious. 

01:11:57 - Flup (Co-host)
I love his character, um, so it. It's just so funny, like he's the kind of person that losing better that you don't mind losing with and people tailing because everyone knows it's so obvious and it's he admits it himself and it's. It's just a hilarious stick and that's. It's kind of like what you said, jacob, earlier you don't mind betting a negative ev for the memes or for the, for the, for the fun, and this is a great opportunity. 

01:12:21 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
I didn't bet this after no, no, I'm talking about what you said for the um. 

01:12:25 - Flup (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, yeah for the. 

01:12:26 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Yeah, I was gonna. Yeah, that's the comparison for the cassians I I want to put out I didn't bet vatty home run because trent tweeted this and like reverse, you know, mush, I'm gonna be on opposite side of trent. I had it already because I thought it was a good price. And, uh, then this tweet came out which, uh, it does make me feel a little bit better, I guess, being on the opposite side of trent for a bet. No doubt. Uh, next one up. Speaking of home run bets dk underscore, dfs. Uh, dk here posted. If I see one more home run lotto on the timeline, I'm gonna play in traffic. Uh, thank god friday. And then there was a reply here from somebody saying stop hating. 

01:13:05
Came across a few of last week's real recaps. You can clearly see the brother has an edge. A very sarcastic tweet because it is a screenshot of countless losers on home run bets, with one one winner in there Marcelo Zuna, home run 1.41 units. And the locksmith replied at bet locksmith, I already know that Ozuna play got shouted from the rooftops even though it was the only winner on the sheet. And then the first reply is a screenshot of Rio Stays True victory lapping the one bet that did hit to hit a home run. That is all-time from a pick seller showcasing here sells picks on WAP. It's all time strategy, kanish. 

01:13:56 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean this is like, this is peak, like the fact that they were able to have the actual recap and then he tweets about it anyway. This is like every single like discord WAP dub. I mean this is a strategy, right. You throw a bunch of shit at the wall with like home run parlays or sdps or any of that stuff, but one hit and then it's like crack, it's like care practice, you know, it's like throwing it out there, that bait. People are like, oh, I gotta get in, I gotta get that next one. So, yeah, I mean this is. This is like the fact they were able to actually get it documented though. Very enjoyable. 

01:14:31 - Flup (Co-host)
I don't want to repeat myself, repeat what you just said, like Nanu did, but it's so funny that every single SGP Twitter tout is the same in this. 

01:14:46 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It's the same over and over, and over and over again. 

01:14:49 - Flup (Co-host)
I don't understand how people keep falling for it. Like if you bet 15 10-1s and one of them hits, you lost money Even though you won 10 units on that one bet. Like it's not that hard to figure out and just keep a little bit of record keeping. And I don't want to the SGP Vic guy that he's been on the space, he does the same thing. He would argue oh, but if you hit it, you can. If you went for 200 units, you can lose for so many days. Well, not if you're firing like 10 units a day, Right, right. 

01:15:26 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
It works. Obviously it does work because somebody will see this guy nailed this home run bet at $333. Like, maybe I should tail him. And obviously it works. It's scummy. We get to call them out on shows just like this one. The next one here comes from Prop Bomb At Prop Bomb, who has actually been a guest on this network, on the board YouTube channel pick seller on Dub Club, and he says Orlando matches up really well versus Boston, leading into the playoffs, and got absolutely buried for this one. We have one from Kwan Kwan with a KW, a bunch of O's and N who's posted series betting price Celtics minus 8,000000, orlando plus 2,200. It wasn't the only person to showcase a screenshot of the market as well. Can a team match up well against somebody else and also be a humongous underdog in this series? What do you think, philip? I? 

01:16:24 - Flup (Co-host)
love this kind of thing. People, people that aren't involved in gambling and don't understand how odds work and like this is a tough matchup and it's just like they're 3 percent to win this game. It's just like sure. Maybe if they didn't match up better they'd be 2 percent, but it's still a massive underdog. What are we talking about here? I love it when this kind of happens. This is my favorite kind of dunking this. 

01:16:50 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It actually just reminded me I bet, uh, when I saw this in the rundown. I bet one future. I'll usually take, you know, maybe a handful in the summer, but one future this nba off season, before the season actually started, and it was the orlando magic to win the eastern conference at 40 to 1. And now we're we're a uh minus 8 000 dog. Uh, in the first in round one, I had to win the play-in, uh, so was thinking that. I remember I just looked at the odds before they. They were like 300 to 1 to win the east. So, um, yeah, so hey, 40-1 still live and hopefully by the time this comes out, series will be evened up, baby. 

01:17:35 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Yeah, did you victory lap that one prematurely at all, when Orlando was like the three or four seed in the early part of the season, with Bankaro missing games as well? 

01:17:44 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Well, yeah, no, like I was like, oh, look at this position. I was like, oh, this position, right. It was like, oh, baby, we got a chance. It's gonna be a top three team in the east, um, and then you know what it's, jacob. 

01:17:55 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
It didn't, uh, it didn't work out like some we thought yeah, it turns out when your best player makes your team worse statistically, it puts your team in a tough spot to succeed in the nba. 

01:18:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
But I watched about like three minutes of game one. It was like, oh, this series is over, Like this team has absolutely no chance. 

01:18:14 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
Sorry, sorry to do that to you. Prop Bomb, but you got buried for that one. 

01:18:18 - Flup (Co-host)
I do have magic plus ten and a half tonight, so I'm rooting for you, Joey. 

01:18:22 - Jason Gramegna (Host)
All right hey we'll see if they are back in this series. But that is it for us on Circleback. Thank you so much, everybody for tuning in to yet another episode here A day early. Hopefully it didn't inconvenience you too much, but the content's so good maybe you do want it a day in advance to keep satisfied. But if you did enjoy, you made it to the end of the episode. Please make sure you do smash that like button. Subscribe to the channel as well for more content, just like this. We'll be back with the other guys, including myself as producer, for the Tuesday show next week, as always, back to normal time for this show on Friday. So much great content you need to hit the notification bell. Make sure you rate review five stars if you're listening in audio form and check out our NFL draft watch along with takes by Jay Jason Cooper and tons of special guests for that one 8 pm tonight for again the NFL draft. We'll see you again next time.