00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off, we're going to talk about what to do when you uncover a big edge in sports. Do you bet it for all it's worth? Do you take it slowly? We'll go through some examples and we're going to debut a brand new segment here on Circles Off. It's episode 101 starting now. Come on, let's go. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 101. Here, part of the Hammer Betting Network on the Circles Off YouTube channel, we're in a brand new spot. It's not temporary, it's a permanent spot, but it's going to evolve over the course of the next couple months. We got the more industrial setup going today Rob Pizzola joined by Johnny from Betstamp. 

00:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's going to be a good spot. We've got some renovations coming in. We get a you know mcafee like studio, but we'll see what happens here. Um, for now you'll see a couple. I don't know what people can see on the screen a couple lockers on the back. Yeah, really quick. Couple flags, of course we've got our genuine hickory hammer. It's part of the hammer betting network, rob. A lot of people ask episode 101 what are you doing with the jersey numbers? Well any referees that are number 101 no, no, rep. 

01:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Imagine we did have refs, though that I didn't look it up, and there might be, like refs, that wore three numbers at some point you want to go back to number one? 

01:17
I, I so obviously you know there's. This is a very hit or miss thing with the general, you know public. Some people enjoy. We never planned to do jersey numbers, by the way, so for people who don't know, you know typically the episode number, we'd start rhyming off players that that wore that jersey number in sports. It was just like authentic, it happened and for some reason I kept it going. But some people are like, just get rid of this completely. And some people are like just get rid of this completely and some people are like no, I really like it. And even in the comments on youtube there's like a back and forth. But I was talking to kanish on the weekend and, uh, we had a chat and he's like, honestly, it's like part of the show. Now you should just you should just keep going with who's the greatest of all time. 

01:57
Number one uh, all time it's to be a goalie. Okay, think of all the court. Warren Moon, war number one, warren Moon. 

02:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, like all the QBs, that you go Warren Moon, then we're going to go Johnny Bauer, johnny Bauer. 

02:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But Jacques Plante wore number one as a goalie as well. Roberto Luongo wore number one. Devin Booker wears number one. Now he's not the greatest of all time, but definitely Ozzie Smith for baseball wore number one. Devin Booker wears number one. Now he's not the greatest of all time but like definitely, you know, ozzie Smith for baseball wore number one Kyler Murray. My boy, tony Fernandez, second baseman for the Blue Jays in the early 90s, wore number one Kyler Murray. Jalen Hurts, tua, wears number one, jamar Chase wears number one, justin Fields wears number one. It's like a lot of banger number ones. 

02:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
But, boys, you guys are missing. Is Jamar Chase number one? Yeah, oh yeah, he is Jimmy Chase. Ricky Carmichael wore number one at Motocross in Ernie, france, september 05, and got his career number 101 win, wow. 

02:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So that's 101. Wow, james Harden wears number one too. 

03:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even really realize how many people wear number one. 

03:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
One's a common number. Yeah, it's easy and like I'm sure there's like a lot of athletes that grow up with like the ego of. Like I'm gonna be number one. 

03:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know what I'm saying? Yeah, or they wear zero. These are all the teams that drafted me. 

03:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, undrafted well, like all, the go-to for people is usually their birthday, right, like the most kid, like when you grew up playing. I don't know which day you were born or whatever, but for me I'm December 12th, 12, 12. I always wore 12 until I was a player, until I would play on teams where it was like, okay, someone else wants 12. I don't care enough, just like give me another number and I would get random numbers, four or whatever, but like one. I feel like there's like a, it's like a sure your birthday could be on the first, but it almost feels like there's like a lot of people out there that would just want to be number one for the sake of saying like, as lame as it sounds, I'm number one, you know what I'm saying. 

03:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, not the best. I wouldn't choose number one. But speaking of number one. 

04:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pinnacle is number one in ontario and in our hearts. They are the world's sharpest sportsbook, now available to all you bettors in ontario. Find out what pro bettors have known for decades pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus if you're in ontario, please play responsibly. Not available to those in the us. And again, we always preach line shopping here. We think that that's extremely important for any type of better. I would never consider betting without pinnacle as one of my sports books because of the low hold, oftentimes having the best price. So win more, lose less. Betting with pinnacle in Ontario. A couple of things I want to get to today. First of all, how was the week? Like you, you, you were like chaos for you. 

04:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We start down 0-3, and that's the only thing. 

04:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, by the time this airs, we will know the result of game four. Can I put something out to you there? That happens. So I see this on Twitter, where I predominantly live. I don't tweet as much as I used to, but I still spend a lot of time on Twitter. There's something that I fundamentally disagree with with a lot of fans. I'm also very curious to hear your take out there. You can put it in the comments below. But the Leafs are down 3-0, the Florida Panthers their series, and there's this residing I don't want to say belief, but this opinion that toronto would just be better off losing game four than potentially forcing in in like the best case scenario, a game seven and losing in game seven. So, like, essentially, would you rather your team down three, nothing, lose game four season's over, or force a game seven, but you know that they're going to lose in that game seven? 

05:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean entertainment value-wise. Like you want to get the game seven, you get an extra three good games, three wins Agreed. Also, people overblow changing the team. Like if you get swept, they're like major changes needed. Like we don't need to, you don't need to change the team that much. Like you're good, but I hate how that happens. Actually, if you lose in seven, for example, it's like ah, tough fought series, like no change is needed, you get swept. It's like blow up the organization tank for next year. 

06:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We often talk about, like the variance in sports betting, the randomness in sports betting. It's why we always preach like large samples, right, everyone's like oh, you know, I went 70 and 30 with my first you know 100 college football picks and they like think that they have an edge on that, but they haven't seen a large enough sample to actually verify that they do or not. And when you're dealing with sports, the average fan just does not want to admit the amount of randomness in sports. And I hate to tie it back to toronto, but like, obviously that's very much what resonates with me. 

06:49
The leafs in the playoffs last year lost in seven games the first round to the tampa bay lightning. They played very well in that series last year. Leafs in the first round this year beat the lightning in six games. They win three overtime games in the process played much worse than a year ago, but they get over the hump. Everyone gets excited and it's like this is the year, this is the team, and it's like people, the results-based analysis out there is. I get why Sometimes you just like you're going to have to get lucky, you're going to have to win in short spurts, but people lose their minds. 

07:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We have to win one game though, because I don't want to deal with people saying like, oh, leafs have. So the whole thing was, leafs haven't won a playoff series in 20 years. Okay, fair, we didn't. Now it's going to be like the same thing, but let's win one game. No, it's one series. We're not. Okay, hear me out everyone. This is regular betting. So you look at the stats. Oh, no team comes back from. Oh three, oh three. Oh, how many teams done? 

07:55 - Zack Phillips (Other)
four teams in history okay, you know one of those teams was the leafs and the last time they did they, when they did it, they went on won the cup that year it was also also in 1942. 

08:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a good year. 

08:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's correct. That was honestly. We had a good team that year. I think Johnny Bauer might have actually been the starting goalie 42 starting goalie for the Leafs. 

08:11
Check if Bauer was the starter. We mentioned it, the earlier mention. So you look at all those stats. Okay, leafs were pretty decent-sized favorites in this series favorites in this series. Now, obviously not likely to win. It's like probably an eight percent chance or something, but it's actually possible. Normally when teams go like 3-0 down, they're like at home, they're, they're at home, down 3-0, like okay, we got to win this game, which they're probably a slight dog. Then they have to go back to game five. Probably win as a plus 200 dog, then go back home, win as a plus 10, then go back on the road. Win is a plus 200 maple leafs. 

08:46
They'll be favored they'll be favored in every game. We're favored in every game. Still, yeah, as long as we don't lose a favored game, yeah, we're gonna win this series. Agree, I mean, we have a shot. It's very different. Turk brodo was the goalie turk, another legendary number one. His number hangs in the rafters at the scotia bank arena. Was it actually number? What was he actually number one? His number hangs in the rafters at the scotia bank arena. Was it actually? 

09:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
number. What was he actually? Number one swear to god. Okay, I, I just don't know. There we go, learning more and more every day. 

09:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, you want it before I swear to god, actually, let me actually verify, listen you, you in your heart. I could tell that you actually believed no, it was because I I've seen his number in the rafters. Okay, and his number, it's number one. There's two number ones in the rafters. Typically, though, when you're at there, it is Turk Broda, number one, johnny Bauer number one. We have two retired number ones. Don't even ask. 

09:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Typically when you're looking at the numbers in the rafters, though you're at a game and you're sauced, so that might be. 

09:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's actually typically after we go up 2-0 and and are down 3-2, and you're like oh, turk. 

09:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Broda, there he is. You wanted to throw a scenario at me. 

09:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, speaking of some painful ones, you've got to settle a quick debate, and this is for Zach as well. Okay, and listeners and listeners. Three scenarios these are painful scenarios as fans that are just like just the most frustrating thing that can happen. Okay, all right, you've got to plan out which one's actually the frustrate, the most frustrating. In each of these scenarios, your team is not completely dead yet, they're just drawing dead. Okay. 

10:15
Scenario one playoffs, major league baseball. Let's say you're a yankees fan game seven to get to the world series. Let's say you're a Yankees fan, game seven to get to the World Series. You load the bases in the bottom of the eighth Team's down two. You need two runs. You load the bases, triple play, zero out, triple play. Find me a more deflating thing as a fan than that. You're not dead yet, you're just going in. Now You've got, uh, scave off top of the ninth and then hitting the bottom of the night. What would be the scenario, though, for that to happen? Triple play, yeah, uh, basically, you hit it, guy catches the ball. Yeah, runners were going over to second, over to first, and they caught those guys it's got to be a line. 

11:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's got to be like a line, a liner right at the second bet second step on the bag throw to first. 

11:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That also, but frustrating scenario. 

11:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, like I'm thinking like a little chopper that hits the plate, that the catcher immediately grabs, steps on the plate, throws across to second, or that would even be. That would be the most depressing. 

11:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah yeah, that would be worse. So that's scenario number one. Scenario number two All right. Nhl playoffs Game seven. You win this game. You go to the Stanley Cup finals. Minute left in regulation, down 2-1. Pull the goalie Swarming. For this scenario, you also happen to be at the game. For this scenario, you also happen to be at the game. You're watching the game. At the game, your team scores the maple leaf score. They tie the game up with 52 seconds left. You're selling like crazy. The crowd's going wild. So you're high-fiving all the guys. You hug the random guy beside you and then you start hearing some buzz. What's going on? What's going on? You hear the referee, other teams challenging the ruling for goalie interference. They show it on the jumbotron and you're like you know what? We're good, this isn't goal interference. They show it. The crowd goes nuts. They're even more happy now ref somehow comes and the goal is overturned. Wes. 

12:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
McCauley or goal interference Wes. 

12:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
McCauley overturns it. You sit down. You're not dead yet. You still have 56 seconds to score. But there might not even be more of a depressing situation than that. 

12:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Mm-hmm. 

12:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right. And third, which has actually happened recently NFL. This one's probably the most frustrating. Yep NFL. You're down six Just before the two-minute warning. Other team has the ball, third and 15. Throws Incomplete. You get up on the couch, high-five your buddy, high-five your other buddy. As you high-five the second buddy, he says wait flag. You look at the TV and it's an absolute bogus roughing the passer 15 yards, automatic first down right before the two-minute warning. So you still have the two-minute warning, you still have your three timeouts, but you were about to get that ball back. 

13:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's tough so these are. This is very hard, because the first scenario, which is the baseball triple play that's actually something that like, is within your control, as it some, like a player on your team hit into that triple play, everything that happened. Your team is actually at fault. 

13:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But you were probably favored at the time when you had the bases juiced Zero out. Agreed. 

13:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The other scenarios you're behind. The challenge is like I would be more rattled by one of the latter two than the triple play, because you feel like you never had a chance, like it was always outside of your hands. And why it rattles me even more is that other fan bases, like other fans, always will be like oh, stop complaining about the refs. You had like many other chances over the course of the game where you could have done something, where, like, the ref influence didn't matter. It's like no, no, but it did matter. It's like the most high leverage spot of the game. It actually mattered. Oh man, that's tough. Those are three extremely demoralizing and tilting scenarios. I would say that the roughing, the passer one just because I hate the call so much is is to me, the most tilting that's the most tilting, the, the, but I just want to clarify. 

14:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Was that one before half? You said what I mean two before the two minute warning. 

14:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Six, just before the two minute warning, you're down six. 

14:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
See, like so you're about to get the ball back. You would have to drive and get a touchdown to win, but now that you still have three timeouts and two minute warning, so if you get another stop you can still get the ball back. But like you had it, you got to stop and it was just a bogus roughing the passer. 

15:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You tap, tap the helmet you do bring up a good point though, like when you're down six and a third and 15, whatever, like you're still pretty depending on the team, but every team really is an underdog in that spot. Same with hockey. Like when you're down to one, you score okay. Now you're like a coin flip, basically the rest of the game. You have bases loaded to take the lead with no outs. 

15:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're favored well, maybe not down two runs, but like you're, you're right, there you're right, you're slightly favored I still. 

15:37 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I think it's the hockey one because kind of I actually hadn't thought about it, but the football example, you do still have a chance after the baseball one. I say it's not as deflating because you didn't like actually complete it and feel the emotion of like it's done. Where, with the hockey one, like, you're like that exhilaration of like, okay, it's tied and then it's like yanked away, and then in reality, you're probably looking there being like what is the odds? Okay, you're probably looking there being like what is the odds? Okay, there obviously is a set odds, but what is the probability here that we're actually going to score? 

16:07
again, because you have to score now a second time. 

16:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but the baseball one just rips it out. If you just watch it, you just stare blank, you don't even say anything. You just stare blank face at the TV for another minute and you're like I can't believe that just happened All in one play. And then it just shows like the pitcher jogging off and taking off his hat and you're like are you kidding me? Like this guy just got out of this. 

16:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah I mean like, I think about. So, like I think about the hockey example. Right, and if you remember 1999, the stanley cup was when brett hall scored the triple ot goal in the crease with his foot in the crease, which was a direct 100, absolute violation, violation of the rules like clear cut the entire season. The NHL overturned that goal, but they won in game six, and on a goal that 100% should not have counted. And Well, why did that count, though? Because everybody started celebrating, but did they review it? Once everybody was on the ice, the nhl said this is it, it's done, it's over. 

17:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I mean, frankly, it was in the crease, it was game six, it would have gone to game seven. 

17:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But like the people, like people remember that situation and like I'm not a big fan of the buffalores, like fans and franchise or anything like that, but people just like dismiss their opinions on that. They're like, oh, you would have lost in game seven anyways. Or like would that overturn the goal? It still would have been overtime and Dallas still could have won. Of course they could have. You're missing the point. Like Buffalo also could have won. Like that type of stuff, they got a job and there's nothing that you can do about it. Like there's literally nothing. Literally after the game, everybody knows what happened. Like everyone on earth knows what happened and you can't do anything. Like that's beyond your control. And that's the type of stuff with, like the roughing the passer, overturned goals where it's like clear cut, everybody knows and there's nothing you can do. Triple play, I mean, that's, that's, that's in your hands. Like you, you, you've it sucks. 

18:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You had it, you had it right there. It's to just not get any runs on that and then you have to start all over and you know you're not getting any runs in the nine. It's done, that's it. The other team's got a lights out closer. 

18:29
Call it a day unless it's buck show walter he doesn't want to bring his closer in the ups and downs of sports are actually great as a fan and obviously as a sports better as well. But, holy man, sometimes like and the only reason I'm bringing up these scenarios because there's been so many bad ones over the past like it was just a debate with some friends. Like, if you look at like the past five years, there's been so many of these, like even just, for example, that top. The last scenario was very similar to the this year's super bowl with the eagles and the juju smith schuster hold. Like that was a phantom hold. That basically was like even worse than this because it effectively ended the game, yes, and no like. 

19:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The problem is the broadcast in real time gave us the absolute worst views of the entire play, so it made the entire population, including myself think it wasn't. 

19:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It wasn't, you know, but that's what I mean. It's like you, you got. If you were a chiefs fan, yeah, there, yeah, you were like damn, we didn't convert this. And if you're an eagles fan, you were up clapping until you saw that flag and it's just like. That's like the ups and downs. 

19:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, the late, the late flags in football, like forget about it. Even as a fan, but like as a better, I watch a ton of the nfl. I watch like literally every primetime game. Sunday red zone start to finish. I'm a huge nfl fan. There's nothing more tilting than thinking you know your team's gotten off the field or whatever something has worked in your favor, and then that flag just comes firing in like over five seconds after the play's done by like some ref that you didn't even like, didn't even have a good view of the play. Yeah, disgusting, it's horrible. 

20:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That type of stuff drives me absolutely insane, but anyways, leafs are coming back there's a shot here four games in a row. 

20:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It could be done. It could be done by the time you're listening. 

20:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, I'm saying it can be done like it's not. We're not, we're not dead. This is this. This happens every week. In college football. Someone wins. That's plus a thousand every week. College basketball same deal, of course. 

20:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Think about how many in place Happens like live betting NBA all the time. 

20:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Lakers yesterday at one point touched like plus 600, and then by the start of the fourth quarter they were back favored. 

20:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

20:35 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Happens all the time. It's dead boys. It's done. It's done. Stick a fork in it. 

20:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Nah, it's not dead. 

20:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not dead. It's not dead, all right. Anyways, let's get into some gambling topics here. Mr Pizzola, yes, there's one thing I wanted to talk about in particular. I'll give a little bit of a preamble here, but I get a lot of DMs on Twitter and we get a lot of questions that are sent to us circles off at betstampapp. If you do want to send in a question every now and then, we do review those and we turn them into segments for the show. But a lot of people message in and they'll be like I found this big edge on this one sportsbook. What do I do? How do I handle it? 

21:18
So we have the Betstamp Discord and this was a topic earlier in the year when baseball started Major League Baseball, there was one sportsbook that was badly mispricing their player hits market like badly mispricing it, and someone pointed it out in the Discord and a lot of people flooded in there and it basically was like okay, what are we going to do here? Do we bet this hard now? Do we try to stay under the radar with this type of situation? And this happens pretty frequently in the sports betting space. Obviously, sports books make mistakes, but I don't. I think, depending on your personal situation, you might wanna play it a little differently. So I think we can approach it from if you're a casual, better I would do this. If you're not, I would do this, but essentially for me and we might have different opinions on this. If you're a casual bettor and you find a big edge and this is something that's like a certified big edge like you know, for certain the sportsbook has mispriced something it's bad lines or whatever and that information is going to be public. For certain the sports book has mispriced something it's bad lines or whatever. Um, and that information is going to be public, like is out there. That edge is going to go away very quickly, no doubt, like so when it's in a discord, for example and this happens in a lot of discords where people find these, you know, exploitable it's going to be gone quickly, especially with more and more people talking about it. 

22:50
The best thing about the BetSamp discord was like the guys that are in there are like pretty tight and connected. They chat every day. So it was like hey, like let's all agree to not go at this too hard or whatever, but if there's one person in there that's just going to go at it hard, it's going to blow it up for everybody. So, frankly, if you're slow to react to this type of stuff, it's going to be gone. So I would say that you action this very quickly if you do want to bet it. With that said, there is a 100% chance that this is either going to earn your account or you're not going to get paid. Do you disagree with that? 

23:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No. 

23:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree. So when it gets to the point of you're a sharp better. Now you have multiple accounts, you might be betting at a sports book where your account is very valuable and you see an edge like that, there is an opportunity cost to betting that because now of count, that might've been very valuable for you in the long run. Yeah, they have this big edge which you can exploit, but you never know how much, how long that's going to happen and you never know if those bets are going to stick. You might actually just be better off completely passing on that, and that's one of the reasons why lots of times you'll see like these this happens in the PPH world, it happens in the offshore world, it happens in the regular, regulated world where you see a book post a bad number minus 100, minus 120, instead of minus 1200, something like that. 

24:21
I can bet that, that I can bet that, but that is going to red flag my account no matter what. So in reality there's probably not a point like there's. There's an opportunity cost to me making that bet, which is I'm no longer going to be able to bet into this account. Or, quite frankly, lots of sportsbooks will just adjust the number to what the odds should have been and say, hey, here's your bet now and you're just kind of stuck with that bet, whether that's right or wrong. So these big edges that come along, it's nice, like every now and then, when you have something that can last 10 days, 14 days, because a book is improperly pricing a hits market. But the expectation on your end should be that, okay, like this is it, and then this account is done. 

25:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, um, I agree with most of the stuff you said there. The only thing I'll add is, like, if you see something that's just like a clear line mistake, like it's not like a free-for-all In certain states and stuff, it is actually where you can, just, you automatically have to get paid, yep. But the most likely scenario is that the sports book or the site is actually just going to void that and there's also a chance that they like free-roll you on that, which doesn't really get factored in much. But you know, if you play something that you saw as a mispriced and they're offering at plus 100 and it should have, definitely it should have been like minus 500, that's a great play, you know in that scenario. But if it's a clear mistake line where they just enter the wrong number, like did something, had it there for a second, and you play that like what may happen and it is a little bit sad and I wish the industry wasn't like this. But what might happen is, you know there's a very good chance above 50, depending on the sports book, that they will wait for that bet to play out and if that bet loses which you know minus 500 could still lose that loses, you know that money is deducted from your account. See, you're not going to see that. And if it wins, then you know, at the time of win or after the fact, you're going to probably see something like oh, bet void due to error, placement error, whatever it might be. So not only are you like risking getting your account and and it depends, like I I like from an entertainment standpoint, like it's also great to have the your account in good standing so you can continue to bet in good faith, and things like that. So, if you're taking advantage of call it line errors or stupid stuff, like it's not really what I would recommend Because, yeah, you might make a quick buck, but also you might get cut off and now not have a place to play and you also, on addition to that, may even get free rolled on that, which, if you're're factoring in, let's say, even a 20 or 30 chance that they'll free roll you, which I do, actually think for most of these clear mistakes, it's higher, like I said before, depending on the sports book, right? 

27:14
So, like we, there are certain sports books to trust. You know I haven't heard of this ever happening, anything like this at pinnacle, for example. Like pretty reputable. There's a few other in the space that are actually quite reputable, but then there's a few that, like you just know for a fact that if you place that bet like they're going to free roll you on that and you're losing proposition, so you actually don't have value in that you have significant negative EV Agreed. 

27:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It could actually be so like it's very hard. The best bettors can do this. You, the best bettors, can do this. You probably do this as well. 

27:46
But every account that you bet in has some sort of EV for you in the long run. Like you basically know what that account is worth if you can maintain that account and the limits in what you're betting at in that account. So you might bet at five different sports books, hopefully all regulated sports books but I'm not gonna be. Like you know, I'm not disillusional. I know a lot of people still bet offshore and through PPH and stuff like that. And with every account that you have in some capacity, you basically should be able to say at least roughly estimate what that account is worth to you in the long run. So I might be betting at a sports book in Ontario and I know that, if they continue to you in the long run. So I might be betting at a sports book in Ontario and I know that, if they continue to give me the limits that I have right now, that that account is worth 2,000 bucks a month random number there, right, and I know that, okay, I can bet this stuff right now, I can bet this massive edge and I have maybe a 25% chance of getting paid out $10,000. There's an EV on that right. It's 2,500 bucks, but I know that this account is going to get burned completely. So now I can make 2,500 bucks in terms of EV on an account that's producing 2,000 a month going forwards. Like I'm probably not going to do that, not sure, right. So in most cases, I don't think that these edges are worth betting. 

29:06
This is my own personal opinion. Other people will strongly disagree with me and I know that there's people out there that they see something like this. They're just going to hammer it to like as much as they possibly can and to each their own. But I think if you're a winning better, you should strive to try to keep your accounts open as long as possible and at the limits that you wanna bet at. 

29:31
Again, like Johnny mentioned, this isn't a problem at Pinnacle. You can go bet. At Pinnacle. They post the limits directly on the app and on site and you know what you're gonna be able to get down regardless of whether you win or lose. But sadly, 98% of the industry is not like Pinnacle and preservation of accounts is important. If you're a casual, you're probably not going to be equipped to capitalize on this edge as much as others can either. In that case, it might actually be worth it for you to try to reach out to other sharp bettors in the space and be like, hey, I found an edge at this skin or at this book and you know, I want to be, I want to get down on it. Would you be willing to offer me a free roll in exchange for the information? 

30:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, but also you can't just do that to anyone because it's a matter of like reputation. You have to make sure that person has like something to lose in terms of reputation, right, because they could just take that and then well, of course, on their way. 

30:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, listen it's. 

30:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We know what this industry is like and a lot of people are in it for themselves, but anyways, I just wanted to get to that that is a good point because I I had, like when I was, when I was just a kid, betting like I would find something like that and thought I was a genius to make like 600 bucks, not realizing that like someone could have probably made I don't know a hundred thousand on that and gave me a small cut you know, even a five to ten percent cut of that would have been significantly more than the 600 I made. 

30:58
So yeah, it's actually. It's funny though. 

31:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've told this story before. It's probably one of the audio versions we did before we were doing video. But when I was in high school, I used to bet through a local bookie and the books had sports book, casino and race book on them, right, which I honestly didn't have any bet like interest in online casino or horse racing or whatever. But one day I'm at school and this is in the days where, like we all carry our phones around now we have access to phones in real time. I had a flip phone like a Motorola Razr where I was like 90% of what I used to do on this phone was play snake. But I had one guy calling me non-stop while I was at school, one of my buddies. I'm like like this has got to be serious if he's calling me. So you know, I stepped out of class, answered the call. He's like you got to get to computer right now. Like what's going on? He's like daylight savings Sportsbook doesn't realize that these horse races have already happened, like I know the results, and they still have them listed listed because they're an hour behind European daylight savings and North American happened at different times. So we're literally betting horse racing on an account where I never bet horse racing before and you know it's great. 

32:12
I made a lot of money that time but I had such low credit limits on my account and, like you know, my buddy's, like we got to keep this tight, which we did, and so on and so forth. But there would have been people that were much better suited to capitalize on that than I was and for me, like making a couple grand that day or whatever, when you're in high school, you know how it is, like that's like an amazing day. But I think back on it now and like I knew people that were pretty heavy hitters at that time where I could have just been like hey, go out and bet these in your account, like they already bet horse racing, go out and bet these in your account and whatever, and they would have made an absolute yeah mix it in with the other races and I was mixing it in a bunch of losers in there as well. 

32:52
I'll never forget the day I went to pick up that money, because the first thing he's like he's like, oh, horse racing. Uh, you know you don't really bet the. I'm like, oh, I bought some picks online or whatever. 

33:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Saw some pics on equibase and uh, yeah, that was something else, but I ran my horoscope and it said to bet those yeah, well, I mean nowadays I just bet license plate numbers. 

33:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know if I've ever told you that or what. I just go to the racetrack every now and then, just for, like honestly, for the buffet dumb as it sounds, they actually have an amazing spread at woodbine racetrack on the weekends banger buffet and, uh, I just walk in and if I like walk by a car that I like, I just write down the numbers on the license plate 847, box triacters all day triactor. For those in the us it would be trifectas, but yeah, that's kind of just how I get. I used to be that guy that went to buy like the, the horse racing journal. 

33:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know, you give the toonie did you buy the book and then like learn how to read this, how you read the book, this is how you make money. 

33:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You, you you don't think? I thought like I'm naturally driven towards numbers, right, so I'm there with the book, I'm circling, stuff this like now I'm like obviously there's zero edge in this. There's people that are processing this information at like such high levels and I'm sitting there eating like literally like some kfc or popeyes like while I'm filling out this book and trying to figure out each race like nothing reading that book and you're like, oh, it's starting to drizzle out. 

34:19
Let me look at this horse's last three in the rain that's so like, first and foremost, like these practice times that you see in the books. 

34:26
You have no idea, like what the track was like or or like if they were you know, riding this horse seriously for a practice, like you don't know any of this stuff. And on top of that, like I was, I knew nothing about horse racing to the point where it's like actually embarrassing, but I thought it was a huge edge, because there's a more. By the way, come a long way since then but I'm talking about like 15 years ago. You have a morning line for every horse race, right, which is just like no different than a sports betting market where there's your opening line, then over the course of the day, stuff gets bet and we know that the line is more efficient towards close. 

35:07
I'm the idiot who thought the complete opposite back in the day. So I would go to the track and I'd have all the morning lines written down like what they opened at, because I'm like, oh, like these are the odds makers, like they know what the numbers should be. And then I would wait till the last second at post and I'd bet the biggest differences between what the more so. And then I would wait till the last second at post and I bet the biggest differences between what the more so the guys that got zero market agreement exactly no market support whatsoever and I think I'm getting huge value. 

35:34
This guy opened five to two on the morning line. He's 10 to one. Now I'm like these guys are nuts. Huge value, obviously the complete opposite of what the right strategy was. But I was always looking for like numerical edges and I didn't know any better. So, um, and then, like now I all the stuff I know about horse racing and the amount of money that gets jammed at post, it's like, by people who are like you know somewhat know what they're doing yeah, there's also like so many people that have no clue what they're doing in horse racing, that think they have an edge and they're like oh, you gotta learn, learn, you got to look. 

36:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Look the way the horse is walking, like okay it's no different than than sport, than sports betting. 

36:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, it's honestly, any honestly, this honestly, it's no different than even casino betting, as sad as it sounds like, there's always that guy that you're just at some sort of party and he's telling you how he won big at the casino and he's going through like this strategy that's just mathematically is like like three percent house edge, like the, and you're just like listening to this person and it's like I'm not a confrontational guy, so I'm not the guy that's like you know like no, this is wrong, because I don't want to get into that situation and so many people don't understand math. 

36:39
But like these guys who like literally play roulette it always makes me laugh, man just like marking the numbers. And then they're like oh you know, the last spin was three to the left of this one and then four to the left of that one, and they're like hammering like five to the left of that okay hear me out. I I will agree with what I hear me out hear me out. 

36:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, mathematically speaking, it is possible to have an edge on that if you understand physics and simulation. So, for example, a dice roll is not actually random in any capacity. You can calculate if you had it in a controlled environment, controlled box, science experiment it drops it from the claw. Same angle, same controlled temperature, everything, gravity, whatever, same time of day. I don't know what the other factors are. It'll always land the same. It'll do the exact same roll. 

37:27
If you could simulate that environment, yep, so technically speaking, there could be an edge like that there could be an edge if you knew exactly like how, if the ball was rolled at the same speed every time at the same point of the wheel, it would land on the same one. But I obviously don't do that. I don't play much roulette. This is why but, mathematically speaking, that is one area like craps you throwing the dice and like having a dice strategy where it's like okay, I put these two together and I throw it like that, like okay, I'm not even joking here there are. 

38:01
That is an edge like technically, that is, if you can simulate at the same time and practice dice and actually get them, then like, yeah, you have an edge. 

38:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is why, at the office, I like to book Johnny in casino games. 

38:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, guys, anyone who actually understands that stuff, you're going to agree with me. I'm not saying you do it. I'm not saying you will be able to do it. The odds that you can actually control the dice is very, very low. But what I'm saying is that's one of the small areas where you actually can have an edge at the casino. If you could do that, if you had a robotic arm, throwing it at the same thing every time. 

38:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think the more likely scenario, more likely scenario Do you think you can do it, but you can't? Okay, fine, but I was going to say the more likely scenario, like especially in roulette, is that you can identify a flaw within the, the wheel itself, potentially like to your point. If there was something on the wheel like I don't think it's, it can be pure luck, by the way, it can be, but sometimes you'll go to a casino and you'll look at a wheel and you'll be like there's like seven, eights in the last 14 spins. I always wonder if there's just something mechanically wrong with that wheel and maybe I'm out I could be completely out to lunch, by the way Like I don't know, but like maybe something not being level specifically with that wheel, or a Nick in the wheel or something like that that's causing something to always end up in the same spot to me. Whenever I see like something on a crazy run, like that in a casino, I'll bet it, because in my head I'm thinking that there's, maybe there's some sort of flaw here fair. 

39:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But no, here's, here's my comparison. Okay, people get mad at other people in the casino for not playing by the book. Strategy is the dumbest thing I've heard, because it's like, okay, oh, you have to hit that. You have to hit the 12 against the two. What are you doing? You have to hit that. It's like buddy, why? Why do I have to hit that? Like it all like that's your better odds, but it's like dude your odds are odds are going to lose as well. You're literally gambling in the casino with the negative edge. 

40:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll tell you this as well. Just like sports betting, a lot of people who think that they know what they're doing and they don't. So, technically speaking, if you had to choose, sure you'd hit a 12 against a 2. But that because that's what the card tells you to do. Right, Like your standard math says, there's a you're supposed to do this. However, that card changes depending on the count of the deck. I'm saying people, not counting, though, but here's the thing there's always going to be someone that like there's. 

40:43
I can't even tell you the amount of times somebody has yelled at me at a casino for playing optimal strategy, Because I'm playing optimal strategy. But they don't know that I'm playing optimal strategy Because they think that their card that they have is the be-all and end-all, and I'm not going to be the guy at the table that's like buddy, listen to me for a second here. Like I know the count of the deck, I am no longer supposed to hit this 12 against this two, because it's changed. The game is fundamentally changed now because of the amount of face cards that are still in play versus what they weren't before. 

41:15
This guy over here that's yelling at me for all these has no clue. He's like, oh, you hit a 12. You hit the two last time against a 12. It's like, yeah, because it was very different. That's what drives me in absolutely insane. But on top of that, the likelihood that someone else at the table like not playing optimal strategy it's just as likely to help you as it is to hurt you. Obviously, Like it's just the randomness of the game. So like, if you don't want that to happen, then go fucking play blackjack by yourself. Like go to the VIP room and sit at your own table. Like, especially if you're the guy that's going to sit down at the $50 blackjack table and play like 500 bucks a hand, just go to your own, fucking table. 

41:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, that's the same guy who's like what you're you're not going to, you're going to stand on that 15. And then the next time Like, hey, can I play your perfect pairs? 

42:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love that so much. You're not going to play that. I'm like no, Are they going to play the perfect pairs and then you've got to touch it for them, you know, just to make sure that you. 

42:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, but like, actually, though, people at the casino who like play perfect strategy but it's still a negative edge, and then get mad at other people for not playing the perfect strategy is hilarious. If you really are that mad, you're like, okay, this guy just lowered his percent chance of winning by like a percent, but your negative edge is 1.75% anyways, so like, don't play. Then If you're really actually that serious about people winning, just don't play. Yep, but anyways, I know we have a new segment, episode 101, new segment. 

42:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Go ahead, Zach Hit it. 

42:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You ask me a question and I don't know the answer. I'm going to tell you that I don't know, but I bet you what I know how to find the answer, and I will find the answer. 

42:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, this is the debut of Sharp versus Square. Now what we're going to do here is we're going to utilize some tweets from Gambling Twitter. This week, our producer, zach, is going to throw out a question. He's going to ask us if it's sharp or square. I want to preface this by saying we're not calling the person who tweeted it sharp or square. We're only commenting on the specific tweet itself. Is it a good take? Is it a bad take? That's how we're using sharp and square in this context. If you think that there's something that would be great for one of these segments in the future, hashtag it sharp versus square on Twitter. We will get those into the program as well. Or, of course, you can just drop them in the comments. Zach, over to you for the first one, Okay. 

43:37 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So this one is in reference to a tweet from Spanky here, Uh, if you're watching on YouTube, you can see it, but for those on uh on podcast, basically he's talking about pretty people and sports betting. Make sure you're educated on gambling lingo. Talk about plus 100 is not plus 100, even money. Five and a half is not 5.5, it's five and a half. So is saying plus 100 instead of even money makes you a fake sharp. Is this a sharp opinion or a square opinion? 

44:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Spanky's going to love this. I think this is one of the squarest opinions possible. I think it obviously comes with the time where he grew up in sports betting. One thing I'll say about this tweet in particular where he grew up in sports betting. One thing I'll say about this tweet in particular Okay, if somebody says to me I'm gonna go bet Lakers minus 4.5, I'm like get out of here. I know you're not a better type of thing. Nobody says 4.5 in the betting space, nobody. I would venture a guess that more people actually say plus 100 than even money. If they saw plus 100, I think that that's more common lingo and not only amongst, like, the casual bettors. I literally have bet in a capacity for half of my life. Half of that half was sharp, half of that half was recreational. Nobody in my inner circle says even money nobody. Only at the racetrack if you see somebody going off at one to one even money. But I think this is a very square opinion okay I'll, I'll add something to this, okay. 

45:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, I also think that that's incorrect. I do agree with rob Rob 3.5, you definitely shouldn't be saying that and you know it's whatever. I'm not going to label someone as like an adiator, like this guy's not a better, but like, yeah, three and a half is more common. But what I will say, cause that's a spread plus a hundred, goes with the American onset. Even money is actually from the fractional odd set. It's a different one. So it's actually doesn't even fit in with the, the terminology. 

45:49
If you say I'll take that, even money, then if something is like plus 110 or plus 120 sorry you you have to say I'll take that. I guess it'd be minus 120. You have to say that's six to five, yeah, which you don't say, you just say minus 20. So therefore, neither of them are wrong. But if you're saying even money, you're in the fractional 120, you have to say that's six to five, which you don't say, you just say minus 20. So therefore, neither of them are wrong. But if you're saying even money, you're in the fractional set. If you're saying 2.0, you're in the decimal set, saying 1.91, that's minus 110. Sounds a little weird, but it is what it is. 

46:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If someone comes to me and says like I want this bet, even money, I know exactly what they mean. It's just not the terminology that I am personally accustomed to and I think this is a bit of an outdated take by the Spankster. I'll say it to his face, say it here on the podcast. But yeah, plus 100, all the way. 

46:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If that makes me I say plus 100, minus 10, minus 110. I say plus a hundo. I say plus a hundo as well. Yeah, plus hunch Plus a hundy. I definitely say plus 100. I definitely say plus 110. Sometimes I'll say plus plus 10 instead of plus 110. I guess, I don't know, that's typically said as well. 

46:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you can say you can say whatever you want is provided other people can understand it so plus. 

46:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The other thing is when, when you're saying like, oh, this the point spread or the total of the game, typically you'd say like what'd you get them all dallas cowboys plus four, plus four, plus whatever. If you say plus 1.5, that's also something in like some different markets, that's like an asian line handicap for soccer, for example. You can, you could take something it's like plus 0.75, yeah, because you get half your bet you get half your bet on the half, half your bet on the one. 

47:29
So so, technically actually, if you say a decimal in that context, then you are correct yeah, and actually I would say that. 

47:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so I've bet Asian handicaps for soccer before exactly what you're saying Plus 1.25. Yeah, I would say that, plus 0.75. I'm not going, I'm taking this team plus three quarters. 

47:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm sure people do that, but my whole thing is like Hold up in soccer you have plus one and a half and also plus 1.5, and those are different things. Actually, I don't even know they end up being the same thing they end up being the same thing. 

48:01
But but no, in like it'll be a different section of the site. That's what I'm saying. Like plus one and a half will just give you your full bet on the other, and the other one will give you half and half your bet, but it'll net out to same. 

48:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm here to defend the plus 100 crowd. That's what I'm going to do, and I'll go to the death with plus 100. 

48:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Plus 100. Plus 100. All right, zach next one. 

48:21 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Okay, next one here is in reference to a tweet from our friend. Hitman Starts by saying betting the NFL draft this year on clean accounts feels like the Elaine Bennis Sp sponge worthy episode. You only get about five decent sized bets until limited severely. Pick carefully which bets are draft worthy, but more so. He follows it up. This one I'll just show for people on youtube again. I'll link the tweets into the description of the video and on podcasts as well. But basically it goes on to say if you think this is a joke, here's some examples and he includes four different screenshots. That progresses from a couple hundred dollar bets a couple thousand dollars and then by the fourth screenshot he's now down to $25 that he can bet. So is using a square profiled account to bet NFL draft props at higher limits a sharp move or a square move? 

49:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So this goes back to the conversation that we're having off the top of the show about your edges, right, and if you're using an account that's been betting a hundred bucks forever, now all of a sudden you're going to fire $800 draft props into it, you should know the expectation. So I love Hitman. I actually think that this one in particular can be viewed either way, depending on whether or not that account could have made more for him in the long run. Like if this is not his account, he just wanted to get some, some action down, sharp move. Fine, whatever he made what he's going to make. If this is like an account which could have been much better leveraged over a longer period of time, if they bet some major market stuff at a couple hundred bucks a pop rather than firing it all away on these draft props, then it's a square move. But I'm indifferent on this one. I just think that it really could depend on the situation. 

50:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It really could depend on the situation. Like the draft is such a thing where, like, these guys just want to limit your account, it really is Like it actually really is, Like it's frustrating, but like it's just if you're betting like 50 bucks every game and then you start throwing in 1,000, and then it's the draft, like ask me straight up, I'll ask you this actually straight up. You see a count it's betting a hundred dollars on nfl sides, okay, yep, and it's down 345 dollars over the course of a one year. It's got pretty consistent play. Let let's just say, yeah, pretty consistent play. It fires in four draft props at $1,000 a pop, 100%. Are you limiting the account? Yes, 100%, man. And it's also draft props that are ones that are off market. 

51:06
Not necessarily just like firing. Hey, I want this draft Like, not negative EV draft props. 

51:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, Again, bet at Pinnacle because you don't have to deal with them limiting your account. But on this specific topic, as the better betting this, like Hitman knows this. We've had Hitman on the show, we've had him on Circles Off before the Hitman. He's a great guy. He knows very well what's going to happen here. So in my opinion, I would be surprised if he thought these accounts were worth more than like the ev on these draft props. I don't know one way or another, but you can't go like after the sports book afterwards and be like, oh, this is pathetic when it is, but like you know that that's gonna happen regardless. 

51:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
that's where you know I have well his opinion was also like hey, listen, all right, fine, we got you on the draft props, you caught us, got you, got us. No, you still let us play on the nfl, but but that regular. 

52:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is like you, so my issue with with that is like you're not thinking about it from the other perspective yeah, they're just like pissed off, also like just want to cut this guy's account because they know that this, this account is now. 

52:21
They don't know, but they at least suspect it's with a sharp person and they're like fuck it, we're not taking action from this person anymore. Deal with it. Um, could be a sharp move or square move, I don't know. I respect hitman a lot. I think he probably thought that this was likely going to happen and still wanted to use it. I will just share a personal draft story of mine. But I bet Bryce Young to go first overall into some accounts that I knew I would lose. But I thought it was a great bet, like almost a 100 certainty at the time that I bet it at like underdog prices. So sometimes you just do that. But I did not expect that that count would keep going zach. 

53:03 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Okay, uh. Next one here is from fendler, john fendler. He was on episode 90 of circles off. And fendler says caesar's rolling out 30 cent straddles on regular season win totals. They'll keep inching up until betters. Stop betting into these lines. And he includes some photos of the Caesars markets that he's talking about here. So which sport? Sorry this is, it was. 

53:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I believe NFL regular season win totals NFL or college. No, this is college. 

53:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
College nfl regular season win total nfl or college. This is college college so ncaa f? 

53:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, yeah, but we know, specifically in ontario they roll out higher vig. Uh, you know, it's 34 cent lines for major league baseball geniuses. I, I think this, I actually think this is a sharp move. Now. They're geniuses, man. 

53:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I agree. People are going to play there anyways. There's no reason to low hold. They're going to play there anyways. 

54:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I'm in the same boat as you Because, again, yeah, if you're a better and you want to bet at a sports book and they're offering you higher VIG, you don't have to make the bet there. You have lots of other options in some of these places, in some of these States and provinces where Caesars is regulated and they're doing this, there's other options available to you. If you're a sports book, you're charging higher VIG to players and you're not seeing a significant drop-off in terms of your handle which I think that is likely the case here then that's a very sharp move for the sports book from like a pure balance sheet perspective. And the thing with this space is people are very price insensitive or not price sensitive. Until that changes, I preach low-hold sports books, right and like line shopping. We do this all the time because it's important, but the vast majority of the population right now doesn't give a shit about that. 

55:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So they don't care. 

55:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you're a sports book, you're trying to make money. That's the ultimate goal of running a sports book business. If you can charge higher and people still bet there, then it's actually mission accomplished. So in Caesar's case, I think this is a sharp move. We might visit this in two years from now and the public is a lot more educated on this and we'd say, okay, this is extremely square move that they're still doing something like this, but all indicators are they're doing fine in these markets. 

55:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sharp move. Not a day goes by that I don't a stupid-ass parlay come across my Twitter timeline. Like this guy almost had it. He hit the correct score in this NBA game and all he needed was the fucking Dallas Stars to win 5-2, and they didn't get the empty netter. And you look at it, it's like 5-2. Dallas is like plus 1,600. Like are you kidding me, man? Plus 1,600. Are you kidding me, man, plus 1,600 for a 5-2 exact score for Dallas. Who was the dog in the game? What are you doing? Yes, I know, I mean, it was literally a pick-em game and you get the pick-em side 5-2 for 15-1. 

56:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you think that, like, I'll use two years, but in two years is anything gonna have changed? No, no, no, I don't. I, I don't know, I don't know. But like at some point, you know, like somebody who goes and bets, donks a parlay at prize picks, right, and it's like buddy, like you just try this at another sports book and you're gonna get paid like 1.3 times this part, like have, how have people, when is this gonna get figured out? It has to at some point. A lot of people already know you think it's just convenience, or they fall in love with a certain product, or like honestly, truly do think that it is about convenience as well. 

56:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll give an example I order all my groceries and get them all delivered and I know I'm paying more for it and I honestly could not care less and I don't want to go to the grocery store, pick it all up and spend my time doing that. Yep, and just the value I get out of that. I am getting technically price gouged because they are charging more but and I'm paying like delivery fee and tip and all this stuff. But it's like, yeah, I'll still do it and at the end of the day, like I do it because it saves me time and it's something I don't enjoy doing. So if someone's like all right, I hate doing all this, I hate going to all these different sports books, like I just want to play one, like save my time, and just like, do it quick, I get that. Where I don't get is the people who are like I do this seriously, like I'm trying to make money betting sports and then not willing to go ahead and actually, like you know, they're not. 

57:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're not doing it seriously. If that's the case, yeah, yeah. 

57:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And and there are quite a quite a few people who are like oh, I bet on sunday morning, during nfl season only, and I only put in one parlay every weekend. It's a five team parlay. I go, I check the scores in the morning, I check the lineups and I put a parlay and like I, I get that, like you don't need to be using five books, but like, if you're just even betting every day and trying to win money, like you got to be using multiple books, agreed okay, this next one is not into in reference to a specific tweet. 

58:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It is more just a generic thing that happens here on Gambling Twitter Tweeting at sportsbooks every time they limit one of your accounts sharp move or square move so more just the concept of tweeting at them when they limit your accounts. 

58:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, so I have a very strong take on this. I think this is so. The intention of people tweeting at sportsbooks when their account is limited is to bring visibility that this is happening and hopefully get some sort of change to happen in the future where sportsbooks are no longer limiting at the rate that they're doing now. I think going about it in this way is an incredibly square move. 

58:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And I will explain. So are you saying the square move is tweeting at them? Yes, with the thing, with the thing. 

58:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like the screenshot of like here's my bet at BetRivers $1.24. Thanks very much, guys. Blah, blah, blah. Like. To me, this is not how you influence change. I will speak in terms of why I think this happens, but first and foremost, it's very dark for me to say this, but I believe this. I think a lot of human beings enjoy seeing other people suffer. Okay, I think, by human nature. There's something I can picture a world where somebody tweets at a sports book hey, like oh, this is pathetic. Blah, blah, blah. Screenshot. Where, like, the guys at whatever book are just like gathered in a room, just like popping champagne bottles and having a big fucking laugh. And like we got another one. Look at this guy. Like it's basically like you're a sharp, better, you're getting limited, complaining about it. That's exactly what the sports book is setting out to do. Like that's, their goal is to prevent the long-term winning bettors. You're acknowledging that they're doing their job correctly. 

01:00:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like that's they're gonna have a laugh about that. Yeah, they're probably gonna do it more. Oh, and on top of that, like listen, not for anything. But we see public companies, billion dollar company valuations, ceos of those public companies saying we are making these moves so that we can limit more bettors and kick out more sharps. So you've got to think the trading team is, if they do have a bonus, it's probably even tied to that. They're actually seriously incentivized to go ahead and do that. So yeah, it's not going to change anything, they know. But I guess what it does is maybe just open up more people's eyes to the fact that, like you, could get cut off. 

01:00:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I disagree with that. So here's the next thing about sports betting Industry studies show that roughly 98 to 99% of people who bet on sports are going to lose in the long run. You know what happens when you're like a sharp better tweeting out screenshots that you're a winner and you get limited. That 98 to 99% of people they think you're a fucking loser is what they think they're like. Look at this fucking guy Good, I'm glad he like no, people don't wanna see that shit. So you're now like trying to appeal. Look at these tweets that go out right, whether it's Spanky filming a video in a sports book, or Hitman did one this week, or Kanish, or whoever just guys roasting books for the lack of limits. Who are the people that are constantly retweeting and liking it? It's the same collection of people over and over and over, because nobody else the people that lose don't give a shit. 

01:01:37
My opinion is this you want to influence change, you have to do it at the regulatory level. I'm not saying that that is going to be easy. It's damn near impossible because a lot of these regulators just don't understand these concepts. But you want to influence change, do it from that point of view. Understand these concepts. But you want to influence change, do it from that point of view. Go to large media companies in the US, in Canada, wherever that can run a story on this type of thing, and get some real visibility into it, rather than just spewing into the same tight-knit world of gambling Twitter, where nobody else outside of that gives a shit. That's my two cents. 

01:02:16
Every time I see something like this again, I just I think that, like the sports book is now like essentially saying like great, like we've done our job and other people don't give a shit, like it's, it's kind of going out into nowhere. And, by the way, I completely understand why people do this. I'm not, you know, I'm not harping on people. People want to. I too would like to have every sports book post their limits, at least at the bare minimum, take a bet of at least a hundred bucks or whatever. Offer equal betting limits to other people. I I want these things to happen. I just think that going about it in this way is a horrible way of doing it. This doesn't accomplish anything. It's just this incessant circle jerk of people complaining to one another over and over, and it's not furthering the process at all. It's my two cents Fair enough, do you agree? I've done this before, johnny. It's my two cents. Fair enough, do you? 

01:03:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
like do you, do you agree? Or like I've done this before, johnny, like I. 

01:03:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, two years ago I tweeted at a sports book about how you know it was something about how they changed my odds on a NASCAR bet or something and I was furious. But, like, at the end of the day, it literally accomplishes nothing. It actually brings even more visibility to the sports book. If you're being honest, like, like it's honestly every single one of these is kind of like a promo nobody even remembers that or cares now and like no one gives a shit about anything. 

01:03:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're right. 

01:03:41 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Also, the fact that people want to see other people not succeed is 100 accurate, so that, in general, is a true statement yeah, it's like robin uh, our live watch along on the hammer Hammer HQ, where we had a Blackhawks fan on there waiting for Bedard to be basically announced to Chicago, and Rob just comes in right after and he's like I hate seeing people happy. 

01:04:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's true. 

01:04:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, honestly, at least Montreal didn't win the lottery. Well, that's all I was watching, for I didn't really care where so. I actually didn't watch it, but what was the final two? The Canucks it was. 

01:04:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
San Jose and no sorry, Anaheim, Anaheim and. Chicago. 

01:04:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Where did the Canucks get? Nowhere. Oh, okay, sorry, fair enough, that's it. Didn't even watch it, just saw. Obviously, bedard Guy's going to be great. I'm going to be great. I'm going to call it right now. Conor Bedard is going to be pretty good. He's going to be a good player. Remember the name, remember the name. I said he was going to be pretty good, conor Bedard, do we have any more? 

01:04:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Two more Okay. 

01:04:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Okay, I'm saving the best one for last here, I think Sure. So this next one, not in any tweet that we have here in particular, but victory lapping. Kentucky Derby winner picks when one of the three horses in your trifecta wins. Sharp move or square move. 

01:05:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. So this is, by the way, it's a marketing move. It's a sharp move, I mean because most of the people cannot discern the difference between a lot of these. Derby day is the best day of the year. Everyone overnight became a horse racing expert. Derby day is the best day of the year. Everyone, overnight became a horse racing expert. They read the book, the journals, they know, you know who the sire of this horse was. And, like the parents and whatever, I love Derby day for what it brings out. But let's be real here. Like it's a loser move, right, like if you, if you, if you're giving out a trifecta bet, you need those horses to come top three right In that specific order. Or if you, if you, if you're giving out a trifecta bet, you need those horses to come top three right in that specific order. Or if you box it in any order, that's the bet you're giving out. Right, if one of those wins, you didn't win anything, you won nothing. 

01:05:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You lost your bet. 

01:05:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He lost literally losing a parlay one leg exactly like losing a leg of a parlay and victory, lapping that you got two of three right now. We've seen that happen in in the twitter space before it happens it's. 

01:06:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But if you have yukon to win the championship, parlayed with the penguins to win the cup, yeah, you weren't really close to winning no, I, I agree, I agree, but it's a good way of of promoing yourself because you got like one of those legs correct. 

01:06:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This look the kentucky derby winner this year was mage. Mage was like 15 to 1. Closed as 15 to 1 right. Shout out kanish for that little uh no, stop cut that out of the podcast, please no shout out to the podcast. 

01:06:28
No shout outs to kanish. If you, if you bet on mage 15 to 1 as as a win bet, you won. If you bet on mage as part as a win bet, you won. If you bet on Mage as part of your trifecta, you didn't win, unless you hit the others, unless you hit the others right. 

01:06:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So the thing is though I haven't placed a derby bet in a while and I'm so happy. I hate watching horse racing. You just lose right away. 

01:06:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's so quick I lost Ah damn, I'm not trying to be like a showboat here or anything like that. I did the quick math this week on derby bets. In my lifetime I've lost pretty much the equivalent of a tesla on the kentucky derby just on the kentucky derby, just just on the derby no, no I hate to say that, but I love the what'd you go down this year? 

01:07:18
uh, not this year. I told myself I'm not doing this. I talked to, like my betting partner, who you know, obviously, and I'm like we do this same shit every year. Like it's time to just like take a step back and uh, yeah, I mean, I bet, I bet license plate my license plate numbers is here. Guess what, johnny? They didn't win. 

01:07:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The only thing that I have, that's like that. That I just don't remember winning on in so many years. Like I always get mashed on the dunk contest, dunk contest. I always get mashed on the dunk contest. I'm talking like 12 years in a row. I'm not even talking like and I do well on the all-star weekend overall. Usually I'm like, oh, three-point contest doing okay, skills challenge doing okay, all-star game doing okay, dunk contest. I don't think I've ever heard a winner. 

01:08:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm ashamed to it. Wait, you didn't. Sorry, rob, you didn't have McClung this year, mc McClung this year. Mcclung like a horse as he was being called. 

01:08:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's just say I did not win on the dunk contest this year. 

01:08:17 - Zack Phillips (Other)
This is the first year I bet it and I won. You had Mack McClung. Yeah, mack Daddy. What price? I don't remember. Right now I'm not just going to say a number because I don't remember. 

01:08:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's very authentic of you. 

01:08:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Mack McClung. 

01:08:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Mack McClung. 

01:08:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, authentic of you, mac mcclung, mac mcclung, uh yeah, such a such a, such a good dunk contest. This one like oh, what a, what a dunk contest. One guy completing his dunks and the other three guys not even competing you know what I'm waiting for with the with derby day. 

01:08:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That'll happen eventually is someone just to tweet out like I have no fucking clue what I'm doing, but I'm betting on this today. That's all I want to see. Here's my pick. Everyone just becomes like the horse racing expert overnight because they read a couple of journals and it's like the only horse race that they're going to bet the entire year. 

01:09:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Also like why are everyone's picks on the derby when there's all the other races that day that don't get picked? 

01:09:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So at Churchill Downs I think the derby is race 11, maybe 10 or 11, you're right like you could be betting it every anyways. It's just one horse race, but it's the spectacle of it all that, uh, that makes it really interesting. Um, but I wish I could have my derby money back over the years. 

01:09:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That would be nice, oh well, I'll tell you what derby, I have historically cleaned up on the Home Run Derby. Can't wait this all-star break. 

01:09:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love the Home Run Derby the one time I needed you to clean up on the Home Run Derby. We did not. You sent us into a fucking pale spin. Still actually did okay. Yeah, it wasn't the end of the world. 

01:09:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, for those that remember. 

01:09:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was a losing year year, but not horrible. Yeah, for those that remember um you would remember, for if you've been listening to this podcast or watching for a long time we used to have the dgen fund. Technically we still do have the dgen fund. Oh, tony man show, hey, we built it up to quite an amount and then johnny went ham on the home run derby in the dgen fund one day and it didn't go so well it didn didn't end up that bad. 

01:10:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It wasn't that bad it wasn't that bad. All right, let's go to the last one. 

01:10:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
All right, boys, the last one. This is potentially the most groundbreaking thing we could ever have here on the Circles Off podcast. There's a new NFL insider out there. 

01:10:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know where this is going. 

01:10:29 - Zack Phillips (Other)
This is in reference to a tweet from Connor Powers. Connor tweeted the Falcons reportedly had deals in place for quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Ryan Tannehill before the draft, but the two sides couldn't work out the money, etc. Per at Simon Hunter NFL on the favorites pod. 

01:10:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was the source. Simon Hunter was the source. Simon Hunter was the source. I've heard this clip. I didn't even see this. So Simon Hunter gave a draft uh and trade info that was complete wrong. We don't, we don't know what, what. What are we at? What is the uh? But if you said the deal, ah, the deal fell through. Like you can never prove it a sharp move what is it? 

01:11:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
never, be proven. What is the question that we're answering? 

01:11:13 - Zack Phillips (Other)
the question is a little bit uh, making up fake draft day trade rumors to get clicks, sharp move or square move. Is he reporting a? 

01:11:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
trade or a rumor? 

01:11:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
is, he's just johnny, it could have been. It's like me going to twitter to or going on forward progress this week and being like hey, my sources told me that, like there was, lamar jackson is very close to not signing with the ravens. I'm just making shit up. 

01:11:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That could be right honestly sharp move, no dumb, like like bonehead move, but like you're saying, like is that a good move to get followers? And yeah, it's like a tout marketing move, sure to get ridiculous. You shouldn't do it but it's, it's kind of sharp move. 

01:11:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll give credit where it's due. It's a sharp move. We're talking we don't even like this guy and we're talking about it right now and probably some people are going to go listen to this podcast because of it. Chad Millman at Action Network say what you will about him, but he's done a very good job of doing like some really clickbaity shit, and getting Simon Hunter to be the new Adam Schefter for the Action Network is a sharp move. I will say that's pretty funny. I mean, listen, a lot of these businesses are like I'm going to be careful with what I say here Action Network very different business model than some stuff that I do. Generally speaking, however, they are an SEO powerhouse. They do a lot of content that is particularly driven to get certain keywords on Google, and then a lot of the content that they put out there as well. They do a lot of stuff that is you know, it's not necessarily clickbaity, but exactly like something like this where it would pick up some steam, and they do a very good job of that. 

01:13:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So um, it was probably writing in their group chats. Oh, did you hear? Kyler Murray almost got traded, exactly. 

01:13:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Exactly. I look like the responses to this are all. I have the tweet open in front of me right now. It's all a bunch of people calling like BS really, but here's how the Twitter algorithm works. Every one of those comments, by the way, is extremely valuable. Every single person that retweets or quote tweets that. That's also extremely valuable. How about the likes on that Extremely valuable that tweet? Right there did a ton 466,000 views Like the Twitter algorithm is public now. 

01:13:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Exactly how it was Rewards engagement, of course, of course. So, that's just one way to do it. That's funny. Yes, you can just make it up. Bedard to the Leafs, that's it man. 

01:13:46 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He's requested a trade. Rumor is the Toronto Maple Leafs have interest in Conor Bedard. It's true, have interest in Conor. 

01:13:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Bedard. It's true, if the Leafs get swept, then the rumor is Matthew's in a deal for Bedard. Why not, why not? That would be obvious. 

01:14:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For all parties. Once again, if you want to get involved in this, we will do it again in the future. Hashtag sharp versus square on Twitter. Or if you want to put something in the comments below, we definitely look at them every single week and we'll get to them, because I actually kind of like doing this segment a little bit. It was pretty fun. Also, make sure you're subscribed to Circles Off YouTube channel right here. You'll get notified in real time whenever a new episode of Circles Off drops. If you do enjoy the content that we put out, please smash the like button below as well, and if you're listening in audio form, please rate and review five stars. This has been it for Circles Off episode 101. We'll catch everyone again next week.