00:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Am I out to lunch here? No, does that not come across as a joke? No, that's fine. 

00:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can't be terrible, I'm laughing. 

00:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
While I'm saying it, it comes across. We all know what's the first thing you think of when someone is big D sports better. If you don't think big dick right away, you're lying to yourself. Come on, let's go. Welcome to Circles. Circles off, episode number 129 right here, part of the hammer betting network and presented as always by pinnacle sportsbook. I'm rob azzola, joined by johnny from betstamp back in studio. 

00:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Kirk replaced me. Got into some trouble. We'll get into it in a second rob episode 29. Only one I could think of off the rip is felix poppin, william nylander. Oh no, yeah, yes, he was 39 to start then he moved to 29. 

00:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Doesn't dry sidle wear 29 leon, maybe. 

00:58 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yes, believe so, I'm pretty sure it seems like a 29 29 is hard. 

01:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I honestly thought about it for a little bit here before coming on air. Uh, the only other 29 I know and it's just because it came up very recently again, we had berry horse on again. Berry horse nickname originates from eric berry, who wore 29 dry saddle, 29 correct boom mark andre flurry 29 oh the flower and a great running back season dem DeMarco Murray oh how did I not get DeMarco Murray? Demarco Murray, 29. Yeah, aside from that, I have no clue. I have no clue when it comes to sports. 

01:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm sure there's a couple out there for baseball. We'll figure them out Adrian Beltre. Beltre Hall of Fame ballot. You just got added One of my favorite baseball moments ever. 

01:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know if you ever recall this. I I think it was adrian beltré, I'm pretty sure. But basically he's in the on deck circle swinging his bat and the whole plate umpire like is like no, no, no, like back it up or whatever, and he literally picks up the on deck circle to like I do remember, remember to move it and then he got thrown out of the game. I do remember that it's actually one of the best moves and, honestly, like the ump that threw him out. 

02:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Come on, man no stones, no stones zero. 

02:13 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I got one. Wait did. Which player did you open with johnny felix the cat? Okay, I got one that we'd be in trouble with as canadians as well ken dryden uh, well, I, I can't get anything, sure I? 

02:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
didn't Not even a Leafs goalie. I think he was just Leafs management as. 

02:27 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Canadians? 

02:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, sure I mean I'm sure we can go back to 1964 and find a bunch of players with recognizable 29s. I was unfortunately not even conceived yet at that point. 

02:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wanted to make a big announcement I got a new hat. I didn't notice that man. I got a new hat. I didn't notice that man, I got a new hat. If you guys are watching the youtube, take a peek that looks good it does look good. That looks good man, and for those of you not on the youtube, I'll spoil it for you. It is a hat that was given to me by our sponsor, pinnacle sports, rob pinnacle the world's sharpest sports book available to bettors in ontario. 

03:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Find out what the pros have known for decades. People, decades 25 years actually to be exact pinnacles where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus in ontario, not available in the us. And, of course, please play responsibly. But we obviously preach Pinnacle a lot here on this program. It's a great sports book. High limits they don't kick you out as winners. There's a lot to like at Pinnacle. There's apparently a lot to dislike about me. 

03:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I leave for a week was replaced in studio by friend of the show, kirk evans. And what? 

03:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
happened rob it, shit went off the rails, so I I I woke up to my message you can't even go to bet bash 4 anymore dude, I'm scared for my life now. 

03:54
No, I in all seriousness. My phone is going off the hook and whenever the phone's going off the hook, you're like all right, what the hell happened? I gotta punch people messaging me like hey, you know, like you've pissed off big d. You're on his shit list. Uh, you're on big d shit list. Like there's a bunch going on. I'm like what is happening? And then I check my twitter mentions and this is what I see. 

04:15
I see a message or a tweet from uh, big d sports better. Which says uh, hey, rob paz Pizzola, they call me Big D because I'm 6'3", 225 pounds. Crack on me all you want, but making fun of my nickname is infantile. I'm looking forward to seeing your scrawny ass at Bet Bash. Same for Kirk Evans. So this stems from last week's episode with Kirk in studio where we did a Tweets that Trigger Us segment. I remember doing it in real time. I remember what the tweet was that I shat on, but you didn't remember it being that bad. I don't. You don't know when you're in the moment play the clips we're gonna play the clip and we're gonna react to this clip. 

04:56
Let's start it here. Feel free to chime in kirk at any time, by the way. Uh, big D sports better. Sure, if you have to put big D in your profile, I mean you might be overcompensating. 

05:12 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I don't know. Okay, it's an appropriate name for this tweet. 

05:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pause. Okay, I get it. I can see how someone who's nicknamed the big D because their middle name is Damon how am I supposed to know this guy's middle name is Damon, by the way, and that? And? Or they call him big d because he's six, three, two, twenty. Like this is honestly I'm sorry, I I do not see what is offensive classic misunderstanding his name is also. 

05:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
His name appears to also be richard Big. 

05:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Richard, Big Richard. Okay, but like am I out to lunch here? No, Like does that not come across as a joke? 

05:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, it was, that's fine. 

05:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can't be terrible Like I'm laughing while I'm saying it, like it comes across. We all know what's the first thing you think of when someone is big D sports. Better If you're. If when it's Big D Sports, better If you don't think Big Dick right away, you're lying to yourself. You are lying to yourself. 

06:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm making my name Big D Producer. 

06:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Just a harmless joke. Let's keep going. I want to see if I got out of line here and you honestly be, john, I will. I will be genuine. 

06:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll be genuine. Yes, the Twitter name and tweet fit of line here and you honestly be, John, I will. 

06:24 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I will be genuine, I'll be genuine. Yes, the Twitter name and tweet fit perfectly together here. Bam. 

06:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wiped out a lot of sins with a whale bet on the Raiders. My normal bet unit is $110. I made two bets totaling $1,258 on the Raiders and turned a four and six day into a winner. I've never been so happy as when they batted down that last Hail Mary so 10 times a regular bet. There's some screenshots that accompany this. 

06:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's a poor, that's a very poor bet. 

06:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is not something to be proud about. 

07:00 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I can get the emotion. 

07:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We've been there. I don't know if you've been there. Certainly, no one is immune to chasing losses. As a sports bettor, you got to try to bet within your limits. I really preach bankroll management. It's very important, but sometimes, just like poker, no poker player is immune to going on tilt. There are emotions at play. Try not to do it for one but also especially try not to share it if it happens after the fact. 

07:33 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Yeah, like if you're, if you're betting a hundred dollars and then you're so upset that you've lost that you're now betting 10x or a little more than 10x the unit size. You probably should stop betting for a bit. Like, take some time off, make sure that you're okay with you. Know he was going to be 3-6 on a day. 3-6 days are going to happen a lot, especially no offense to Big D here, but I doubt he's a winner. So you're going to lose pretty often. If you know you're finding you're losing and then you're 10Xing your unit size, probably should take some time off sports by then. 

08:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean definitely not a winner, because he didn't even get good numbers. 

08:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think he just opened the sports. Can you click on that fan door? We can't, we can't. 

08:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, so far. To summarize, I said that I've been there before. He accused me of being like I'm not gonna go through every single DM and every single response. But he basically said like, don't act like you haven't been at this spot before, which I did. I've said that I've been at this spot before. We've all been there, right? I mean, we've all been there. So I said that. 

08:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but to be fair, you are a dickhead content provider. 

08:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't deny that. I've never denied that. I've never said that I wasn't a dickhead content provider, but okay. So it starts by me resonating with the situation, as has Kirk, where we're like, yeah, this happens, but try not to let it get to that. Now we have then gone off into a tangent about him not being a winning sports. Better, I can see how that can be upsetting, because I've taken two situations one, not beating the close on one bet and two, chasing a loss and now 10X loss chase. 

09:24
Yeah and say it's not a winning. Those are very common signs of someone who doesn't win at sports betting Fair, I would say so. 

09:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The number mainly like taking a, not the best number, also at two separate books when the limit is higher than that means that that was probably a sports book balance at Caesars as well. I'm just reading the signs Again big, probably a sports book balance. Yeah, at caesars as well. I'm just reading the signs again big d no offense taken. I don't know you. I don't know if you're a winner or not, if you have been successfully chasing steam track, whatever I I'm first I'm seeing of. This is on the screen right now. I've never scrolled the profile, but that would appear is what it is. 

09:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah I don't know who this guy actually. His face looks familiar, like I might have met him before, possibly I don't know whatever. But first foremost I do want to set the record straight that Kirk Evans was the first person to call him a losing bettor. So if there is ever going to be a fight at Bet Bash, some sort of exhibition match it's got to be Kirk. 

10:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You think you and Kirk versus him would have a chance, or no? 

10:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want to fight anyone, I'm just saying. 

10:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hypothetical, hypothetical, you know what I've hypothetical hypothetical. 

10:29 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You know what. I've seen it happen before. Billy football did it for the part of my take guys. He fought jose canseco. Yeah, I'm putting it out there right now canseco took a dive in that fight. Doesn't matter, big d, I'll fight you. You come out the hammer, you come out circles off you get coming at me. 

10:38
I'm bringing the hammer myself. You're going down. You want to scrap anybody? I'll see you there. Bet, bash, three time place. Whatever you want to go earlier, later, whatever it is, I'm a fighter, go at any time. I got you, I got the hammer. 

10:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I got their back that's what it's all about. 

10:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We call big d producer versus big d sports better and that ain't because his middle name's damon wow, uh was there more to that did did I go off? On. Look at the you might like at the side tim, Tim Fraley, Kurt Gavins and Las Vegas Chris. I don't know why I find that funny. 

11:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Go up and see if we've like. Did I go do more? Did I talk more shit about the guy? I mean definitely not a winner, because he didn't even get good numbers. I think he just opened the sports books that he had. But as uh as grp wins would say big d after a four and six day, which, if you're only betting 110 dollars. 

11:32 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
By the way, he lost 220 bucks. Yeah, not bad, but but the fact that he had to 10x his unit size makes me think that he was set 210 bucks. 

11:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He was pretty tilted about or that maybe he bet some like money line favorites and it was a lot more fair. Fair right, because this is, this is a classic. I'm trying to make all my money back. Yes, not I'm trying to end up with a winning day. So maybe the the there was some stuff in there, but as grp wins would say, big d, you lost your mojo. You lost your mojo. Just stop betting. You don't know what you're doing. You don't know what you're doing. Take a step back, take the week off and, honestly, don't do that every time you lose a bet. But if you're in, if you're in a tilted mode, it's, you know, it's very likely you have lost your mojo and maybe, maybe you should just take a step back and calm down a little bit. Big. That was the end of that. 

12:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So that's why he says did you actually quote grp wins to validate yourself and your opinion? Can we, can we? 

12:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
not. Can we from the outside looking in, can we not tell that this is a joke? 

12:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
whatever, it's a joke, but I'm all for not chirping people. That's not a good thing to do. It does feel bad when someone talks shit about you when you're just trying your best. 

12:39
He's not trying to harm anyone, he's not doing anything bad. So like, honestly, let's just. Let's just make it up here, let's address, we addressed it. If there is some beef, then zach's handling it on account of the hammer, okay, and if there, if there is not, then I think, rob, not that you owe him an apology, but I think you guys call it truce, we call it a day we move on to a great guest and we will move on to our guest, big d. 

13:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is nothing specifically that is personal. This is probably the 200th tweet we've done on tweets that trigger us at some point or another. The only message I'm trying to get across and it was easy to get across based off of your first tweet was to not chase losses. Can I just tell people to not chase losses? Yes, I can. It doesn't really fit into the content segment that we're doing, but sure I can. The thing with GRP wins that as a reference. 

13:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like that was a joke. That was a joke. 

13:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's the joke that we're all talking about where you've lost your mojo. We use it all the time. Now You've type of situation I'm not saying permanently or anything like that, but there is no malice in it. Apologies if it came across that way, wasn't meant to be that way. If you do want to fight someone, I'm not in the same weight class. I'll get destroyed by you. I don't want to take a punch in the jaw at Bet Bash. I don't. So let bygones be bygones, and if you're going to punch someone, punch. And if you're going to punch someone, punch my producer, zach. 

14:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, big D. Best of luck with sports betting this year. Hopefully turn a profit and much more winners like that. Raiders won. Up next our guest. 

14:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Our guest this week on Circles Off is actually a student, but he's also a sports better. His name is Aaron. He goes by at Giants Badgers on Twitter and has come highly recommended by previous guests of the show and other bettors in the same space. He is a mover in the space For those who are unfamiliar, someone who gets down for other people. We'll talk about all that and more, Aaron. Thank you very much for joining us here on Circles Off. 

14:42 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Thank you, Rob, Johnny. I appreciate you guys for having me. 

14:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Aaron, are you a listener of the show? 

14:48 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Absolutely. 

14:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wow, we appreciate that. How long have you been listening? Because we've ran this podcast for over two years now, so were you listening on the way up? This is just a personal question to pat our own backs here, potentially. 

15:04 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I would say, more so in the last year, year and a half, once it started going on YouTube, it was a lot easier. It's a lot. In my opinion, podcasts are better when you can actually see the person rather than just listening to them through your Spotify, apple Music, et cetera. 

15:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We take that and we appreciate your support, so we'll get into it right now. Give us a brief background on yourself how you got involved in betting space. 

15:28 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Yeah. So I would say I first started betting, maybe like 14, 15 years old. A couple bucks a game, 10, 15 on like March Madness. My dad would go to Vegas with a bunch of buddies to, you know, enjoy, enjoy the time where there's so many games available. Then it started heading into if you guys played Madden Ultimate Team, some people might know that coins. 

15:54
There's a website called Mudhead that you could bet what's called MHC, which was basically virtual currency. They had a max cap of how much you could win per day, per week, etc. But I mean, it was basically a an intro to the space. And then it kind of progressively went from there, started doing like Bovada accounts, running through some promos there where just take I don't even know if they were plus CV at the time, but that's can obviously put like your stuff on Twitter. That's going to move five points and your bovada account's pretty cooked pretty quickly and you'll get a message saying oh, you're not a recreational player, you were taking away your bonus. That happened more times than I could count and I was like out of probably tens of thousands of dollars, but that's a whole nother discussion. And then it started doing like betting partnerships through PPHs, legals, offshores, where getting down for other people, and then it kind of turned into what it is today we're moving for a good portion of people. 

16:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so let's retract or rewind here to you know, it's funny enough that your original foray into like betting, even though it's virtual currency or whatever, was Madden. 

17:02
I've never heard of that before, that's the first time I think I've heard that as well. Um, but it's interesting. But okay, getting into the offshore space, you you reference bovada specifically and talking through um using their bonuses, basically in the early going, how did like? Is that something you figured out on your own? Did you have a network of people already around you who are like, oh, you should do this when you start betting, like, just just walk me that. 

17:27 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Yeah, I'd say it was more along the lines of trying to make a buck. I saw it as a potential. I'd say, okay, well, if I'm a break-even sports bettor or losing a little, I mean the rollover was, I think it was seven and a half times, maybe 5X on 1 one K deposit, making 750. So if you just do the math it's kind of just advantageous to as long as you're not losing an ROI like negative 10%, negative 15%, you should be able to turn out with some, some profit. I mean it's not crazy, crazy concepts. I mean all the offshores offer it. Um, just depends on how deep and intel you really want to get into it right now. 

18:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Was it, was it like sports betting itself that drew you towards sports betting like? Was it? Was it your love of sports, or was it because you saw an opportunity to make money in the early going? 

18:20 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
um, I mean, definitely sports betting was attractive. It still is attractive, um, but also, I mean, if you can, if you know what you're doing, have some semblance of a math background and some just like logic and discipline and emotional control. It's really not that difficult to like the low hanging fruit as long as you have like contacts and stuff are not that hard to beat. But beyond that, like obviously sports and going growing up playing baseball, basketball, football uber competitively a bunch of my friends playing college sports is around my like life the entire time. So I mean that's what kind of drew me in. And then it was like, okay, how do I turn this from a passion, hobby to more of something that, depending on how, how far you can scale it to like part-time or full-time jobs? 

19:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now, most people in the space I mean almost exclusively are going to start with, you know, handicapping the sport. I think everyone's first venture into sports betting is, you know, trying to figure it out themselves. Now, and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I understand the vast majority of your income from sports betting is coming from moving for other people, not doing any origination yourself. How did you get to that point of basically like, was there years of bets where you're basically like I'm not very good at this, I need to find an alternative? Was it moving for others can be more lucrative? Like what? What got you into that state of mind that the handicapping side of things is just not going to be for me? 

20:03 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I would say at the beginning, beginning, obviously, anyone who jumps into the industry, they won't think of moving immediately, like that's not really the first thing. Everyone wants to be profitable on their own bets. I mean, I hear it all the time from my friends who are like I want profitable better. And then they're coming out with these like I'll give an example purdue versus saint peter's, a buddy bets purdue minus like 400 for like 500 bucks to win 125. And his standard unit is like 5 to 10 bucks. So I mean, it's not where he's like going to die if he loses 500 bucks. 

20:37
Like the money is not the issue, it's just like overextending what you're normally betting and you're just putting yourself at a disadvantage. And then he's like I'm a profitable better. Well, he excludes that bet. Well, I don't think that's really like excludable because it is a bet. Um, and then of showing the emotional control beyond that, from like handicapping perspective, it's a lot harder, rather than if you're moving and you don't really decide anything. It's just like like okay, how do I get this down? Like I just need to find a way, whether it's in person, kiosk, online, offshores, pph, you name it. Like there's, you just have to find a way, and if you have contacts and know people, it's pretty doable. 

21:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
When you talk about having contacts and knowing people. How do you get to that point? You're obviously very young. I don't want to. You know we can see you on screen. I'm not going to get. You're still in school, you're a student, so you're. The way you're talking right now is ahead of literally 99.9% of people your age in terms of your knowledge of the space. How does one come to that knowledge? How does one establish that network of people around them? 

21:49 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Sure, I mean it might seem like I'm this one man operation which at some point I mean I would say I'm at the top of the food chain in this regards. But I mean I have people across the country being older than me my age, and like way older than me, partners that are 30-year-old lawyers, 30-year-old doctors, who do this just like I don't even know if to help me out, just to make money. They enjoy sports, they enjoy betting, kind of like a combo of everything. I have my friends who are 23, 24 years old who are filling for me getting bets down, going to the casino runs. I mean mean I can't operate six casinos all at the same time. I'm not six people. So I mean obviously I have to find people who are trustworthy to be able to get those bets in. 

22:33
Um, it's a lot of reaching out, not being afraid to take no as an answer. Um, just extending yourself to a point that where you can extend yourself but not like overextend yourself, where you become too thin. Um, and basically ruining reputation. Uh, as long as you demonstrate that you're reliable, accessible time. Uh, accounting is good, time management is good. I think it's not that hard to move into a uh, move in and move up, as long as you demonstrate those qualities that people want to see. 

23:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you're you're still in school right now. What's the plan? Moving forward Like, what do you want to do? You want to stick with sports betting after you graduate, scale it up or not? 

23:17 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Yeah, obviously I would like to scale it up. I would like to get some people on full time. Obviously that I would like to get some people on full-time. Obviously that's dependent on how much we win. How much can I afford? There's a lot of different factors that I have to consider. If we don't make money, I can't really just shell out a full-time salary to get more people to do this full-time who are willing to take poor deals in hope of one day, kind of like a startup, uh, winning it big. But I mean it's not like, oh, we're going to be a multi-billion dollar company like google or multi-trillion dollar company like amazon, etc. But I mean, if they can quit their day job and do this full-time, I'm sure a lot of people that are like 25 years old would more than willing to accept that, as long as they got the guarantee of like a good salary, like going forward. Like going forward. I mean, if I can do it full time, obviously the money's there, everything's there, everything adds up. 

24:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'd love to do it so so, just the plan post-graduation would be to try to continue the sports betting side, rather than to find a job in the field that you're graduating from. 

24:29 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Yeah, that's the plan at the moment and kind of just expand and see where things go. Ultimately, that's dependent on winning. You can't really do anything if you don't win. 

24:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So question for you here is an interesting one for me. You mentioned as long as the money's there, right? How much do you think you need to make per year to then say, all right, I'm happy with sports betting as opposed to another career, given that, obviously, the money's not guaranteed? 

24:56 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Right, I mean, in a big year you got to be making I think several at least 150 to 200, because you also have to consider the down years where you may be making zero or even losing. Like, not every year is a guarantee. It's not where you go and get your regular corporate job. As long as you don't get fired, you get a paycheck every two weeks. You start losing. Well, then you're paying out of pocket. Then you have to consider okay, do I have enough saved up to continue betting? Because I mean, ultimately, your bankroll is your bankroll. You can't just go and find five hundred thousand dollars on the side of a street to continue betting. If you're losing, then you're just going to dig yourself a deeper hole and it's so, yeah, good year, maybe 150 to 200. But I mean that's just dependent on how big your unit size is and how, how all in you are, cause you could really you could really blow up if you really take it poorly and you start losing. 

25:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, fair enough. The reason I ask is there's a lot of people, especially around your age that, um, you know, have asked me in the past hey, like, I'm thinking of betting sports, I want to really get into sports betting Like, is it sustainable and profitable? Like, can I be a sports better long-term? My answer is always if you're passionate about it and that's what you want to do, then you got to do that. That's where you're going to make the most and you know whether you win or lose. The lessons you learn in chasing that are going to far away. Anything you would learn from taking a job that you don't enjoy. So that's always the answer. 

26:24
But it's interesting to get your perspective on how much you need to make, because the main thing that I always say as a risk is you might make $100,000 this year and that would have out-earned your salary at X corporate job or at X hourly wage job. However, like you said, the money truly is not guaranteed. So the way you got to position it is what's your expected ROI, what is the minimum ROI you're going to earn, and then work that back as, in order to achieve $100,000, if I have this percent ROI, I need to risk this much over the entire year. This is going to be broken out by seasonality September, october, november, december is going to be more heavy. I'm betting a lot of college basketball whatever February to March is going to be pretty heavy. And then you scale that and say this is what I need to be getting down per day to do this and every single day, instead of looking at it in terms of I made $700 today. 

27:19
I lost $600 today. Shit, I had a bad day. I lost a thousand dollars. That's not the way to look at it. The way to look at it, I risked this much today. My expected edge is this Over the course of the year I will earn this. So every day you go in, you might've made $300 in EV per day, and that was your day's work. So if that adds up at the end of the year to a salary that you're happy with and that's the way you kind of calculate it. So anyways, I went on a little rant here, but I think a lot of people like minimum, minimum once per week for the past over a year. 

27:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it's cool to address it, yep for sure, aaron, just going a little bit deeper into this right now. So how many groups or like how many different people would you say you're moving for right now? 

28:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So just trying to think so you're saying sending him plays. 

28:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. So yeah, for those that don't understand, typically what would happen is you have some sort of originator doesn't have to be an originator, but some sort of betting group that says we want to fill x amount of money on this game. We're going to just start sending it out to the people that are going to start betting on our behalf. So I'm asking aaron here specifically how many people are directly sending him bets, let let's say, on a weekly basis? 

28:36 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
So I would say it's a little more complicated than just that, because ultimately I am working with other movers who get plays from multiple people themselves. So I would consider that one entity because he directly sending me stuff, although he might be getting it from three, four or five different people. So that I mean it's a little. 

28:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, that's fine. So how many entities? I guess. 

28:55 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Six or seven. 

28:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, it's pretty sizable for, and matching up the amounts that you're hoping to make makes a lot of sense, so roughly. 

29:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
how many plays per day would that be, then, for the people? 

29:08 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
So on a college football Saturday with college basketball, so what would you say, like last week? Um, they're the sizable. And then, if you add NBA and stuff, 50 to 75. 

29:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
not bad, not bad now how, how? 

29:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
how are you like managing this in your current state? Like your, your your school, you're studying. I'm sure that there's a certain amount of your time that's going towards studying. You have to write like tests like school's not that hard anymore. 

29:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was never hard, but certainly not hard right now you're probably like I'll say it's definitely hard no, I'll say it how it is. He's doing his entire curriculum no more than 10 hours a week, including class time. 

29:53 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
That's a little under. I mean, if I was taking like kinesiology or something, maybe but like how many hours a week? 

30:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How many hours a week then? 

30:02 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Probably like 15 to 20. Oh, okay. 

30:04
There, you go All right, like are there times of day you always have someone on staff, like whether that's a, that's a friend of yours, it's only me, it's just literally like well, so basically what would happen is they send me the stuff and I'm sure you guys can agree, disagree or other people who have experience in this can agree and disagree to put all in on like three accounts, one per skin, whether it be DraftKings, fanduel, et cetera, and Offshores. Because what if that gets limited? Then you're done with that account for the day and you really sometimes have no clue, like I was just doing regular college football week one of the season day of games limited. Well, there goes that account can't really do anything there, uh, when I have six other plays that I need to get down, um, so you have to be able to manage that and properly get everything in order. So basically, I get the plays. 

31:10
I have my 8 to 10, 15 people that between the various different places, whether it's pph, uh, offshore, legals getting down and I'll send them out. I try to distribute it evenly so we don't have an influx of like one account's going to zero, one account's like has way too much money and they're not available to play stuff. It's a whole. I got my personal stuff that I placed them for myself, like the harder stuff, um, so it's kind of like operating everything it seems like an actual tremendous amount of work if I'm being honest it seems easier than it is to a lot of people on on listening they're like oh yeah, I just send it out and I send the plays to buddies. 

31:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The amount of work that that is to actually coordinate is a lot, I can tell well what I want, what I was kind of getting at with the line of questioning and, by the way, don't mean I'm not, I'm not trying to demean at all or anything but my experience with using uh movers, generally speaking, is that I send to them it's going to get bad relatively quickly the you know it's not going to move them. It's going to get bet relatively quickly. You know it's not going to move the screen, it's going to be quiet unless somebody tells me otherwise. But when it's a one-man operation and like this is really stupid, but like I'll just give it a. You're writing a three-hour exam. 

32:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Done no bets, no bets getting filled. 

32:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right If someone now sends you a bet, like it's just going to be on unread for three hours or whatever and to me that would be something where I was like no, no, no, this can't happen, because then you're always worried about has this person seen it? They're taking the information, they're going to bet it elsewhere or whatever. It creates a trust issue. So how, how do you bet, like, how are you managing to balance this all at once? 

32:46 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
basically, sure, I mean, if you look at my screen time weekly, it's probably I mean my friends know it, they're, they're all like what you got problems. I'm like 18 hours a day. I sleep for three. I kind of just I'm always on my phone, uh, just kind of getting shit done, whether it's school. I mean I'll have my phone ready if I'm still doing school, just in case something comes up. I mean, in a week there's only like a couple weeks I'll ever have an exam. I mean the most I ever away from my phone is maybe an hour max, I mean, and within three or five minutes. 

33:22
Generally, if you send me six plays, it'll get done in five minutes pretty quickly. The only problem is if it goes to trade or review, then sometimes it can go like 60 seconds, 90 seconds. I mean it gets accepted, but I don't. It's kind of a formality at this point because I know it's going to get accepted. But like that's the, that's the longest hold is those trader reviews where they might just sometimes they might not even accept the bet and then move it, which I think is a whole nother discussion. That is like slows everything down, um, but I mean, yeah, most of my exams are maybe an hour um always on my phone. So if there's something wrong and I don't respond within 15 minutes, generally my phone gets blown up pretty quickly because they think like I'm dying. 

34:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The kid? Yeah, the kid's there. He's responsive. Uh, aaron, if someone sends you a bet on like college football for example, uh, let's say, I side college football um on friday afternoon, so one one day before the game, what typical uh phil, are you returning how much money? 

34:28 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I try to make it as low as possible, so it's whatever they like ask. 

34:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So what if I said give me the max amount, what would? What would it be? 

34:36 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Between everything. If I really wanted to get everything done, I could do probably. 

34:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's impressive for uh, for the day before for sure, and that would be with or without moving the screen. A lot of people would, uh would ask that, and we can explain what that is in a sec Without. 

34:58 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
So, rob, without moving the screen, a lot of people would uh would ask that, and we can explain what that is in a sec without. So yeah, I mean I, I don't. I mean I don't. I could use a 411 uh bookmaker, uh bol circa, if I wanted to. I mean I don't, I mean the thing is I I got enough uh kiosks around me. I can just walk in with 30 grand cash and just start dumping them all in across them and then, even though they hate me and they've, like they know who I am, they'll generally still take my stuff yeah. 

35:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So just just to, to add to what johnny was saying here generally speaking, a lot of the originators, uh, don't want the sharp sports books to move. So when we say moving the screen, we're talking about, like pinnacle Chris 411 is, you know, chris Skin Circa, because what will happen is, as soon as one of those books moves, the rest of the recreational books and PPHs are going to start copy mirroring those lines as well. So it's kind of like a silent bet in a sense, and 25 to 30 Ks is a sizable amount, on that for sure. 25 to 30 Ks is a sizable amount, on that for sure. 

35:52
Do you, like you talked about networking a little bit earlier, getting yourself out there at all? Are you in any way trying to differentiate yourself from other movers? Or is it just like a thing of you know? Hey, I can help you out here? I'm not offering anything, you know anything crazy, but you know, if you're looking for any additional liquidity. Like movers in the space, I've had different experiences with them. People will reach out to me all the time. Lots of them are like oh, I can get 10% rebate on these types of bets or whatever. Here's a reason incentive to work with me Some are. You might just want to ask this other person like what's your sales pitch to someone as to why they should they should send plays through you? 

36:34 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Sure, I mean most people. If you have problems getting a can be MGM BK, like the standard legal is that. Basically any rec person is like oh, I can bet whatever the hell I want on it. I don't really have an issue there are you um sorry go? Ahead definitely go for it no, no, continue, my bad man um, basically, I mean, if you think you can get 3k on a wmba prop, which I have, um good luck like I, just that's. That's just how it is. 

37:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So question then for you would be how are you earning money then? So this is obviously I do know the answer, but explain to everyone listening how are you earning money If you're essentially getting the information in betting it and then giving them a return? 

37:30 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Sure. So I'm sure you guys and most people who have dealt with this stuff, uh, are very, very aware of how this stuff goes. Sometimes it's a free roll, which I don't do, um, just not my business model, because I don't. Really, if you're going to send me plays and I want a free roll, generally I don't believe in this stuff. Um, by various different metrics, whether it's CLV, I've seen prior stuff and I'm like, or I've heard it's not the best. So it's kind of like, yeah, um, but and then it's just a waste of my time because then if it does get like low CLV, it's burning accounts, um, and I'm wasting capital that I could be using elsewhere. Then I make you post up and then it's kind of like okay, the whole, it's a lot of work for not much gain. Generally what happens is you send me some something, depending on how much I want on top. 

38:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I just add on top so what he means by the free roll, uh, for everyone. 

38:31 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Listening is oh, with makeup obviously. Yeah, not just like yeah. 

38:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So what he means by the free roll is uh, let's say, person a sends the play to aaron, says all right, can you get me a thousand dollars on this bet? 

38:45
Aaron says, yep, great, he bets it for a thousand, gives that other guy the thousand and then if the bet wins, then aaron would get a free roll percentage and if the bet loses then he would have no risk. That's why it's called a free roll. So if that person were to, over the course of the year, lose ten thousand dollars, they square up no issue. If that person were to, let's say, win ten thousand dollars and aaron would be making whatever the free roll percentage is in this, let's say, win $10,000, aaron would be making whatever the free roll percentage is In this scenario, let's say it's 20%, and then Aaron would have $2,000 in profit for himself without having any risk. And as Aaron alluded to, this method I guess in your words is not favorable for you, because then you would just kind of be like nah, forget it, if I have to count on a free roll, then I probably think you're going to lose and I don't even want to waste my time. 

39:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I appreciate that. So respect and a pro move oh yeah, a hundred percent. Uh, do you have any instances where you will book the action instead of betting it out? 

39:44 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
So I don't book any action myself, Um, I only will uh send it out, or better myself, like for obviously the other people interesting um, just to add a little bit to that. 

39:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you know, you're you're basically betting out all the stuff or adding like a position for yourself on top of it, but with the nature of how you're doing things, essentially you have almost no decision making other than like, do I want to to create an additional? Um, you know, bet on this for myself for the long run. This is it's very hard for me to put myself in that state of mind personally. This is just like my own personal experiences where I basically have like zero decision making or control over my own bets. Has has that like, did you have to come to grips with that? 

40:32
Because most sports betters in the space it starts with, I think, like an ego type of thing. They think they know sports, they want to bet and, like you know, even my friends around me, as an example, they know that I bet NFL NHL professionally. This is where I make most of my money. But they'll watch NFL games or NHL games and they'll bet against me regularly all the time because they think that they know better. If I was to send them regular bets, they probably wouldn't bet them if they disagreed with them. They're, like I don't think classic you know I don't like this one, rob, or whatever, they wouldn't bet it right. Big underdog in the NFL. Was that ever a challenge for you to get into the state of mind of like I'm just going to bet what other people send me? Or was it just like seamless? 

41:16 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Sure, I mean, I'll give you an example. So I'm everyone knows, ras, you bet RAS, you bet RAS. 

41:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes and no. 

41:27 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Let's just pretend like you do yeah Right, even if you, even if you don't like, let's just pretend like you do. Yeah right, even if you. Even if you don't like, let's just say like you. Let's say you want to buy the package, you can't afford it. Uh, your bankroll is not big enough, you don't have enough outs. Whatever reason is you don't, you don't bet rast, but you're like I want to bet rast, you go into their free plays and you bet them, even if you buy back, whatever it's. It's kind of the same concept. 

41:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is, but there's always an element of what I'm betting myself as well. 

42:00 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Of course, but I'm just saying, like, if you add that to your portfolio, it's kind of like it's under the same guise of okay, I'm not betting it myself. Do I like it, do you? Do you just blind tail RAS? I mean, how many subscribers do they have and how many people do they? Um, do I mean? At the end of the day, it's all results, results oriented. If the guy wins, the guy wins, they lose, they lose, kind of. 

42:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's how it is well, there's a larger conversation to be had about the whole rass thing because you know, we've had ed from right, angle sports. I think it was episode 100 that we had ed from right angle. 

42:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's also had adam churn off churn off. 

42:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know we've. I've talked at the rast guys at bet bash. I think it's a really good group of people. Oh and mike craig mike craig's been on. We've had it, we've had craig, craig um yeah so. 

42:46
so basically, like it's not strictly that, because with the element of betting RAS stuff like if you're doing it at RecBook they're gonna see the CLV report at the end of the day, there's more to it than just would you bet this type of situation. There's a lot to account for. But ultimately I would always bet RAS because you're gonna get a very good price. If you can get that original price, it's going to be great, and then you can figure out what you're going to do with it. Later on you can sell it whatever. 

43:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's what he's saying, though. 

43:18 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
That's kind of like exactly my point. 

43:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, that's only if the market is moving on those, and if they're not, then you've got to cut that. 

43:24 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I mean so generally there's certain things that don't move, but it's from the same people that are moving the lines. I mean I'll give an example there was a total yesterday. We got a 152. It closed 160. It wasn't even close. We lost. Kind of defeats the point. But I mean, if you see that over a large sample size, 100 bets, I mean obviously that's still small, but a college basketball season you don't have the elongation of 3,000 bets or whatever. Assuming you're betting like two to five bets a day over 100 days, 200 to 500, you might lose, but your CLV is four, five, six, seven, eight points. I mean I believe he's a long-term winner. 

44:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right. So that's kind of what I was getting to with the whole situation here. But is that what you're looking for basically, like for you to make a determination of, like I want to keep moving this x, y and z stuff for the next couple years. Is it a measure of closing line value? Is it a measure of profit? Like, how are you personally determining that? 

44:30 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
sure it's. Uh, I would say it's a mix of both, because CLV can only mean You'll have the CLV truth there's. Oh well, I get CLV. I've got to be winning better. I should be winning every single time. I've actually done some stuff on the back end of my stuff, closing line value and for some reason, the back end of my stuff, uh, closing line value and for some reason, you, I get negative clv. My win, although it's a smaller, super small sample, um, the winning percentage is higher. I mean it's we're talking like 50 bets, so anything can happen in those 50 bets, but it's just like how much equity I have. I'm losing so much equity by the, by how much CLV I'm getting to get to my final like the actual winning percentage. It just like there's something that's messed up. 

45:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean that's from an origination point of view. That's like that's when you feel really good about yourself, when the market is against you but you're finding wins. 

45:31
So I but it's concerning it's concerning exactly because the game kicks off and you're like like fuck, there's like some heavy money opposing me on this right. But when you win it you're like, okay, I guess you know. You look at the state of of how you won it as well, that's important, but ultimately it's concerning with with the people. That how you won it as well, that's important, but ultimately it's concerning With the people that you've worked with. Limited experience. Again, not to demean, I'm just stating facts or whatever. 

45:59
But, we've had people on the show before who talked about some bettors being out there who just bet stuff and the stuff's not moving but they win at way larger than a coin flip rate. You see any of that stuff out there where you have guys sending you plays directly not moving, which would be great if you could win at a high rate with the number not moving. But do you see any of that personally? 

46:24 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I wish, uh, I mean that would be a golden goose if they were winning 53, 54, 55% on minus 110, not moving the screen and I can get X amount on it. That would be quite amazing. But yeah, I mean most of the stuff that we're betting, whether it's something like F1 and it's moving 100 cents, 200 cents plus 600 to plus 400, 100 cents, 200 cents um plus 600 to plus 400, uh, something like college basketball side, moving six to seven points like these, these brends the accounts quickly. So then you have to evaluate oh, is this person running poorly or am I just burning accounts for the sake of burning accounts? 

47:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, absolutely. Um, you guys know my thoughts on the whole clv thing. I will say opinions are allowed to change some stuff that may have said in episode one should change based off of new data that becomes available, correct in life generally speaking with that being said, at this current moment, no opinion change on the clv. 

47:23
If you get negative clv, you you will lose in the longest of runs. Obviously, you can win in the short term. However, that will just change to positive CLV as you'll start betting more and whoever's losing will start betting less. And also, I will add one caveat that's never been mentioned prior on this podcast If you are purposely trying to get negative CLV on these low markets, for example, you are purposely trying to hold up the college basketball total, which is not that expensive to do, so that your account doesn't look like you have clv. If that's the case, then, yes, you could win with negative clv, but that's not really negative clv. You're just doing that on purpose. It's not really. It's not there. So overall, you know, on the whole debate thing, I still believe in the clv. But yes, I'll add in that caveat Sure, if you're holding up the line, then that's still going to win, right. 

48:17 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I'd pose a question to you, though, about the holding the line, because I've tried it using 401. 

48:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Is it harder or easier than expected? 

48:29 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I think it's a little harder than expected. 

48:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Of course, now people will start to realize it. All the people that are roasting this pod. 

48:37 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I mean I've done it and I'll see. I'll go on Twitter and wait for some people to tweet blah blah blah added at blah blah blah price at blah blah blah kiosk or skin, and I'm'm like nice one I mean it's worth a couple dollars just for the entertainment value of watching them chase my number that I'm just throwing out for shit, I mean come on, yeah. 

49:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What's funny, though, is those people doing that, in the long run, will likely win, because the majority, the vast, vast, vast majority of the numbers are not being held up, and in certain sports, none of the numbers are being held up on the majors, um, but yeah, I mean, there's some pretty big markets right now that that, potentially, are being held up or are not being held up and, um, the reality is, if you think every single price is being held up, that's completely incorrect. Not every single. So incorrect on held up, that's completely incorrect, not every single. 

49:33 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
So incorrect on so many levels. I mean I can talk about this for hours, about like I mean I'll look at it and I'll watch someone chase my stuff. That's fake for stuff. And I mean I'm buying out on the other side just off off. Off markets I don't lose stuff money, but Off markets I don't lose stuff money. But yeah, I look at that and then three minutes later five, 10 hour maybe the line's back to what it was and it's like I bought off, I cashed out. I'm like, did you really? Though? Like there's no way, there's no way? 

50:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's no way. Are you staring in front of a screen all day? I mean, I have some way. There's no way. Are you? Uh, are you staring in front of? 

50:17 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
a screen all day. I mean I, I do, you mean I'll ask that I guess, um, generally no, but um, I mean I have, uh, I kind of just, I mean I have enough stuff that I, I, manually, can click, click everything pretty quickly and get an idea of, like, what the best price is. I mean, generally, the stuff that's going to be the best prices are your MGMs, dks, your softer books. So I go there first and then, if I see, okay, they're all mirroring a similar price, and I go, like your Offshore's, pph's, caesars, and see, okay, these are a little sharper. Where can I like get the best price? Generally it's line shop, though for me, to some degree, what would you say? 

51:05
The distribution is of legal versus PPH versus offshore. Right now, offshore, I'd say, is the lowest, maybe 10% to 15%, legals maybe 50. Pph is maybe 35. I mean, I'm getting more. Pph is basically by the day. So it's kind of just like, okay, send them my, send them my way, we'll work out a deal. And it's the same people generally sending the same stuff, because we, once you start winning people, are like I want to hop on a bandwagon, okay, you see, you see your monthly check on, like Monday, tuesday, wednesday, when you get paid out and you're like yes, you dealt with any any stiffs in the PPH game? 

51:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
too many to count for what are the funny, what are the funniest excuse? 

51:49 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I mean, we get the obvious I mean, you can, you could I? I started a thing on, uh, my twitter that's, it's what I'm calling the chronicles. Uh, when I get stupid stuff um get sent to me between mothers, partners, me myself getting the stuff, and I'm like this doesn't even make sense like I'm giving one example for the listeners here. 

52:11
Yeah, uh, I mean I posted on my twitter. I'll give two examples. One was um, I'll pay you fifty dollars until your 3k is paid up, but I want a week until you tell me um, what the where you're getting your plays, and I'm like, no like tell them you get them from GRP Wins. I mean you could go on a long list of people I could say but I mean I had to make some phone calls. Three hours later I was paid. Yeah. 

52:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't even want to know what that means. $3,000 and $50 a week, it'd take you 60 weeks. It'd take you more than a year. 

52:48 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Yeah, I mean it's over a year. It dollars a week. It take you 60 weeks, it take you more than a year. Yeah, I mean it's over a year. It's wasting my time, your time. I'm gonna send you a text every monday. Oh, you want to pay your 50. Okay, thank you, um. I I mean then it's like oh, the bot, excuse. I mean that happens weekly. I mean, come on, uh, it's like goes to show, I got a text yesterday. Uh, you would think that it's a common place. 

53:09
Now you don't, you don't buy, and what they call sharping, which I think is that triggers me Sharping. They made it a verb and they're like, yeah, it goes to show, none of these sites accept it. I was like, actually, generally, usually it's okay, and then they just kick me off and uh, they become a partner and then they start sending me stuff. Uh, it's really not that difficult, um. Another one was oh, you're cheating on blackjack, on the pph, which I was like it wasn't done to me. It was sent to a buddy um who was free rolling a guy who, uh, free him. So it was kind of a reverse free roll. 

53:51
Um, but reverse, free roll um the uh, he was doing blackjack and he was winning and he was like you're cheating, you cancel, you're in minus 200, and you're cheating, you're somehow even. I mean the text chains are just wild. 

54:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, this is a good chance to remind everyone of a place where you will not get stiffed and you will not get limited. And that, my friends, is my new hat, johnny's new hat. Put the episode title pinnacle sports, all right available in ontario. 

54:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Please play responsibly, probably would be pretty bad for seo if the episode title was johnny's new hat, as if anyone is ever gonna search no, no don't make the title, sorry. 

54:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Put it in the description though, but uh, like you know, joins for a discussion and then, first thing, johnny got a new hat. 

54:43 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Johnny got a new hat. I might try it this week. 

54:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Johnny's new hat. Johnny's new hat. See what we get for hits. The new thing that I'm getting in the PPH world pretty regularly now, which obviously for a long time it was like bots Can't use a bot whatever. But now I get people, agents, who send me um lists of the logins with like fake ip addresses and they're like oh, what's? 

55:06 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I never get sent the ips. They're always just like you're coming in from boston. I'm like it doesn't matter where I'm coming in from, like it doesn't matter if I was losing, you'd be thanking me. You'd be, like monday morning at eight in the morning, send your five hundred dollars. I'm like if it was the other. I usually wait until like 2 pm or something, so it doesn't look like I'm uh like up and tight about it, but I mean eight in the morning, it's. 

55:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just woke up yeah, I, it's, it's the stuff that you know is obviously false. Like I'd rather them just be straight up with me and be like hey, hey man, like obviously the stuff is way too good, here's your money, we're closing the account, that's perfect world right Now. Even if it's like hey, obviously this is like really sharp stuff, it's steaming, we're not gonna pay you. That's harder to swallow because the expectation is that if I'm down, I'm down, I'm going to pay. But that's still better than the guy who sends me like a list of like hey man, what's going on with all these Sacramento IPs that are logging in? I'm like, dude, there's, that's not. This is not happening. Like it's literally impossible that this has happened. You were just sending me a fake list of IP addresses that show Sacramento. It's not. Those are the ones that really get me where they like try so hard to spin a lie and it's like no, this is like just just tell me this stuff too sharp. Just tell me that's it, that's all I care. 

56:29 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I would say the worst story actually, the more I think about it was. It was like a thousand dollars, stiff, maybe 1200 ish. Just the story was stupid. He was like anything that beat the line auto void, no matter what it voids, you beat the line, you, you. You get negative clv. You're good like you're allowed to bet zero clv, you're good betting. So it'd be have to be like all live stuff or like right before kickoff or like really shitty stuff. 

56:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, tell them, tell them to up your limits and then you can just bet a bunch of like little props and then hit the screen last minute on them and move them in the opposite direction. 

57:10 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I had a method to get past his, his BS stuff. I've gotten this guy 10 times and it's always like, oh, it's you again. I'm like, well, don't have your idiot people start sending me stuff. I mean, it's not that hard. I don't start finding accounts right and center and he goes and says, okay, so I'm going to do a report. Anything that got CLV we're voiding. Anything that got negative CLV and zero CLV, you have to pay or we'll square up Somehow. He comes down the next day oh, you owe me $205. What Doesn't even make sense. When you owe me x amount, it's just the stuff that happens is wild yep, yeah, that's uh. 

57:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Basically as if he said you know what? Everything that won I'm voiding you owe me six thousand yeah000. 

58:00 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Exactly, it's too much. I was waiting for that one too. 

58:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's too much, definitely in the space. The thing with the sports betting industry it's very dynamic and there's like I think, about the differences in my betting from like six years ago to now and how it's extremely different. It's actually funny you're talking about holding up the screen because back in the day we used to fake hockey numbers in the morning and it would just hold. There was no one playing the market and we would get a huge fill on the other side and then over time that stops working. And now somebody starts hitting those fakes really early in the morning and you're like like fuck, we can't do this anymore. So what are we going to do? We're going to fake the wrong sides and someone else is going to hit it back the other way, the wrong direction, and over move it the other way and we can get a big fill. Then they eventually realize that's what's happening and it's like all of this. 

58:55
This is basically a dynamic shift in that environment. It happens with the way people are betting. It also happens with like software. You know all sorts of stuff in this line of work. Do you have any like substantial differences from when you first started doing this to now? Has there been an evolution of the craft at all, or would you say that for the most part it's been relatively like regular in how this has all transpired. 

59:25 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
At the beginning I'd say it was. There have been phases. I'd say, like last year at this time I had 10 or so accounts. Then it kind of like phased down to like three. As you start winning, obviously you get kicked off and then kind of had a couple of breakthroughs that guys found me a lot of accounts, um, got a lot more accounts myself and it's kind of like progressively picked up to where it is today, obviously continuing to grow um. But it's all about like going back to connections and how many people you can um like. And I would say that's the biggest dynamic is, if you stay stagnant, and not even in regards to how many accounts you can get or people, it ultimately comes down to access rather than anything else. I'd say from a mover perspective, it all comes down to the access. 

01:00:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do the people around you that are closest to you know the extent of what you do, like your parents, family? Have you had honest conversations with them about the extent of this? 

01:00:32 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Yeah, I mean they understand most of the numbers. It was kind of at the beginning like all right, rocco Vinny is going to come to your, your door and stop off your knee chops, uh, your knees and your like ankles, and there, there you go. They're gonna have no legs, um, but it's, it's become more accepted, as they like understand that it's a lot more, um, profitable than like, once they see the numbers. That's all it comes down to is the numbers. If they see you're making money at the end of the day, as long as that's on the right side of the law, you're okay right. 

01:01:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you ever worry about having a public persona? Um, I don't know if you've ever been on camera before talking about this or or whatever. There's some people out there that obviously just like want to ride off into the sunset, be quiet. No one ever knows who they are. They go by a telegram alias. No one will ever know their name. Does it ever concern you putting yourself out there at all in this space? 

01:01:30 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
um, not really. Uh, at the end of the day, you can be like on like a tv show, like real house sides or something. I mean, I don't, I don't think, or like love island or one of those shows. Is it really much different than that you could argue like being a celebrity? 

01:01:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not that frowned upon yeah, Love Island. 

01:01:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Finding love is not as frowned upon as winning money in the betting space. 

01:01:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I meant the other way around. 

01:01:59 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
You get the point, though I would say it's not even being frowned upon. It comes down putting yourself out there and being able to connect with people and meet new people becomes like opening new doors, whereas other times, if you don't do that, your business becomes stagnant. 

01:02:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Relationships are key. In every single business, no matter what it is B2B, b2c, um, different industries, whatever it's there's always going to be some aspect at which being a good people person, being a good relationships person, is going to help you out. Um, mr Aaron, we talked about a little bit, a little bit about your future plans staying in the industry. Is there anything else that you would give advice-wise to somebody that's, let's say, a year younger than you, year two younger than you, currently studying university college, that's doing betting and that wants to do it, or is doing it as a side hustle right now, maybe making $1,000 side cash? What advice would you have for them? 

01:03:05 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
DM me DM you. What would you say on the DMs? 

01:03:10 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I mean, ultimately they probably obviously don't have the best stuff themselves. They could monetize their time better. I think by doing partnerships I do take some risks here and there to get more down. Obviously, sometimes it doesn't end the prettiest, but I guess that's for everyone that doesn't end the prettiest. I've had some really, really good relationships that have benefited me 30,000 times more than those that have destroyed I wouldn't even say destroyed, like set, I would say, is probably a better word. So it's making connections, finding the people that are willing to mentor you, help you out and really build those relationships up to greater scale than what you currently have, because most likely right now, unless you're creating some model that's MIT based and you're beating these markets yourself, you're probably not that profitable. 

01:04:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you I don't see what MIT has to do with this here. 

01:04:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

01:04:10 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
I just want to-. I was more of like the math-based, like you're coming in. 

01:04:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Respect on the answer. 

01:04:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
by the way, I want to follow that up really quickly, because you did mention that, like dm, there can be people that can be of a help to you and can mentor you. Did you personally have a mentor or did you? Did you just like learn the ropes yourself? Like, are you still learning stuff now? Do you reach out to other people in the space, or is it just more of like I'm going to acquire this knowledge through experience? 

01:04:37 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
so I would say acquiring the knowledge through experience ends in this space pretty poorly, because you're going to be throwing money around and then you're going to be like, well, why isn't this working? 

01:04:50
And you might just dig yourself a massive hole that you can't get out of it, but you're already putting yourself behind the eight ball. But I mean most people. I mean there are certain people that won't respond to your DMs, which obviously there's a reason why they're probably not. Whether it is they're busy, no offense, but they probably don't need you and they're probably like greedy and just want to make their like business grow and they don't really want to expand or they don't need to expand. But most people, I would say, are pretty open. I do have a couple mentors. Business grow and they don't really want to expand or they don't need to expand. But most people, I would say, are pretty open. I do have a couple mentors. They can help on certain things, but ultimately there is some trial and error. But you got to make sure that trial and error is as cheap as possible. 

01:05:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well said. 

01:05:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, good advice there. I'll touch back on a previous point. This relates to business as well. But if you are afraid to enter into a deal, hire someone, take a partnership because you're worried about the downside, then there's really zero chance you're ever going to grow and actually get to it. So, um, in order to grow, you will have to make some bets and ultimately you're going to lose some bets. So you just have to win more than you lose and that's how you end up on top. But uh, you know, in regards to entering into partnerships, yeah, tough, you're gonna lose a couple, but as long as you win more than you lose, uh, you're on top there. Final couple questions for you, aaron. You got anything else, rob? 

01:06:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
before we get to the final question, let's go we're gonna wrap here. 

01:06:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So we have this question that we've been now asking a lot of guests. 

01:06:20 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Doesn't have to be sports betting related, but give us your plus ev and minus ev moves of the week I would say plus ev move of the week would be to find a good group of people that you can trust partnership wise, or just in general in life, that really are kind of like behind you, no matter what, willing to go through the tough times and the good times and making sure like everything's okay, uh, without those, especially in betting wise, there's so many hills and valleys. Um, mental health wise, overall health wise, you just got to be able to handle those storms, because if you can't, then you're kind of shit out of luck. 

01:07:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, that's a good one. And then your minus EV move of the week. 

01:07:10 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Teams that need to score points. Shooting 0 for 11 from the free throw line kind of goes to beyond to say kind of when you have an over, you obviously want more points and when you have an under, kind of they shoot like they're Golden State. 

01:07:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No good there, no good, no boy at all. I have a negative EV move of the week. For me, this one is a recent realization. All right, we all got to be eating better food. Overall. We got to be eating better food. We got to be eating better food, and I don't mean like the, you know, look at the nutritional facts, because that is important, obviously, and you want to, like you know, make sure you're not eating too many sugars or, you know, whatever it might be. 

01:07:53
However, the actual ingredients in food is such a big difference maker in terms of feeling great versus feeling shit. Been eating, been on a health kick, been eating healthier foods, natural foods from the grocery store, buying better stuff, couldn't feel better. So negative EV move of the week is eating bad food and I truly believe, like you know, you grab, grab them, you know something, fast food, not going to mention a specific brand, let's say you grab like a greasy fast food burger. You take natural food from the grocery store that has the exact same specs, same amount of like carbs, sugars, calories, whatever. You're gonna feel way better. That's the move of the week. 

01:08:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what I can say? That, um, I eat a lot of bad food and I feel like shit regularly. So try it out. If you watch my monday night live watch along stream, where I pounded like 10 timbits and a panzerotti and some beer not good some leftover halloween candy uh, I didn't. I didn't wake up the following day feeling too good. 

01:08:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll tell you that I've been a value guy my whole life and I've been a big, uh big uber eats. I've mentioned it on this podcast multiple times massive uber eats guy was at one point limited on Uber Eats for a take, for a bonus abuse, not for, not for like, just for taking advantage of only promos. But I'd hit him hard on the promos every day. 

01:09:18
And ultimately, I was able to get get my account back and Uber Eats amazing for saving time and actually amazing for the cost value as well as oftentimes you are, it's actually has been more expensive for me now actually getting food from the grocery store. 

01:09:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Dude, they don't pay us for anything, so don't single them out. Doordash get the dishes. Those are good options as well. 

01:09:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Whatever it might be the food delivery services, they're great value and time-saving. But whatever it might be the food delivery services, they're great value and time saving, but, um, you know, ultimately, if you're getting the food and it's fast food or it's whatever, just lower quality food, you're gonna feel worse and uh. So, yeah, I've shifted and, um, I'm no longer an uber eats guy, no longer a food delivery guy. I am a natural food man. Now that is we the plus evn minus ev move of the week. 

01:10:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
we need to find the joey knanish tweet where he says he hasn't cooked a meal in three years. He's ordered delivery that was me prior. 

01:10:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That was me a couple months ago. That was me a couple months ago. It's too good. At a previous job I once knew a guy who had been at the company for 40 years and he's like married with kids, whatever. Been at the company for 40 years, he's about to retire, 40 years in a row but he never once packed a lunch ever. Bought lunch every day, no doubt. 40 years in a row. That's impressive, I mean. 

01:10:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I go back to Aaron's days. What? Are you laughing at Zach 40 years is nuts, 40 years is insane 40 years is nuts. 

01:10:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Monday to Friday 40 years in a row. 

01:10:41 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
never once packed a lunch 40 years is insane, jesus, that's a lot of. 

01:10:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I go back to campus days, though. There was some banger food spots on campus which I visited like almost every day. Really, you must have some on campus, aaron. 

01:10:57 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
There's always. Every single college has at least one or two that you're guaranteed. It's generally the late night, 2 in the morning, drunk, need some food. Those are generally the best spots During the day. It's just fast food. 

01:11:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah no doubt. And then Aaron wow, this is going to be a wild one, because I don't even know how old you are, but it's not that old If you could go back five years to when you're back in, probably 10th grade. 

01:11:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's like 25% of his life basically. 

01:11:30 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
Yeah, 22, so 17, senior year of high school. 

01:11:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if you can go back five years, what is one piece of advice you would give to your former self? 

01:11:41 - GiantsBadgers (Guest)
the. The problem is like you said. It's so like small in the grand scheme of things. Uh, so much has changed. I mean, I would say, try to open up as many doors as possible without like closing doors that you might think are closed, or even just shutting them off. Uh, even if that door might open in the future and you might need those people. 

01:12:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree with that. That's really good advice. 

01:12:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know it's like a small percentage of your life roughly, but overall it's actually more important. The growth phase from age whatever 17 to 22, is much larger than 45 to 50, guaranteed. So the lessons that you would have for previous self, I think, are very, very, very uh, important especially, and everyone could probably learn from that. So respect on that, respect on the whole interview, man, thanks for coming on putting yourself out there. Best of luck, um, on your exams. No, that's just a little joke that's in two weeks no, that was a joke. 

01:12:40
That was a joke, man. Best of luck with uh, with betting, um wishing you, you know, whatever the you you got it, you're gonna make it. It's just a matter of uh of time before you scale it and I'm sure you're gonna hit all your goals. So we'll be seeing, we'll be hearing from you soon, hopefully on a future episode as well. Make make sure you check you out, thank you johnny thank you, zach no problem, I appreciate it. 

01:12:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
At giants badgers on twitter. His name is eric. Make sure you check him out. Give him a follow. This has been another edition of circles off, episode number 129. If you enjoyed today's episode, make sure you smash that like button down below. If you're not subbed here on circles off, like 50 of you who watch this episode are not subbed, hit that subscribe button below. Hit that bell for notifications. You'll get notified every time we go live with episodes in the future. Everyone enjoy your week. Good luck with your betting. We'll catch you next week. You.