00:00 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I'm historically incredible at these challenges. Historically, I'm incredible at these challenges. Once I did a coffee tasting of five coffees and everyone's like, bro, you're not going to be able to taste this coffee machine. Difference with this and this. I said line them up, Come on, let's go. You think I'm going to come on here and put one of the Aussies in the elite tier? I'd vote for Rob of $25,000. 

00:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wouldn't vote for him. I can basically just cheat and get the same bets that they're getting. It's weird because you can also pay your bills at the same place where you bet. I mean, you're a short guy, what? 

00:43 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
This guy talks a lot of trash. He's talked a lot of trash about me, Rob, a lot of people in the community, but he's refusing to show his face. 

00:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Clouting yourself as a pretty good NFL gambler. I thought you were an idiot. Take testing, testing. I'm a cuck. One, two, three, four. 

00:57 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Aussies going head-to-head with the Aussies. That's what I grew up with and I said get him, kirk, what I drew before and I said get him Kirk and they call me a mean-spirited name. 

01:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't hang out with him. The Toronto Maple Leafs at 14 to 1, staring me dead in the face. I'm already getting uh, you know a lot of uh, a lot of, a lot of early. This could be the best circles off episode we've ever. That's ever been done. Welcome to circles off episode number 173 right here, part of the hammer betting network and presented by pinnacle sports. I am Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from Betstamp. How's it going? 

01:30 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
We're good, we're good. Three weeks of NFL, rob, how are you doing? I'm doing good. How's the season been? 

01:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Season's been. You know I actually had a great NFL Sunday this past week, which is nice. But the life of the content creator NFL better is very different now because I give out like one best bet on Wednesday, best bet show on Forward Progress. If that loses, it kind of like ruins my mood for, honestly, the full day. 

02:01 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It's something you bet yourself, though correct. 

02:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Always I had a huge bet on the Titans this week. I went four and two in the early slate. I lost money because I had a significant bet on the Titans. Went five and oh, in the late slate that made me feel a whole lot better. Sucks Like you give up. You have such a good week. You give away one loser, whatever it's the life of the content creator, but could give out worse bets than that. I know you had a worse bet. You didn't give it out. 

02:24 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Oh man, I lost. Probably I had. Well, this is not the biggest bet of my life, but I had Shohei Otani under one and a half total bases and Buddy put up a 17 total base game. I forget his exact stat line, but it was the game when he got the 50-50. This guy got three bombs, which already that alone's 12 total bases guy. I think he went six for six. 

02:49
Six for six, 10 rbi, yeah it was absurd not a good day to be fading otani, but uh, listen, I think that might be. That might be the best, the worst I've ever lost a bet by yeah well, one and a half. I needed him to get one total base or zero. 

03:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He got 17 in your defense good number you got because it was plus 200 on the it was. It was an under. Yeah, it was it to be to get one total base or zero. He got 17. In your defense good number you got because it was plus 200 on the under. 

03:08 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It was an under. Yeah, to be fair, it was a plus 200. It was an underdog. You expect it to lose, you bet underdogs, you're expected to lose. 

03:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, I'm trying to think of the worst bet I ever placed. This is huge recency bias, but I bet the Panthers week one against the Saints this year. The game was over in about five minutes in, I knew I couldn't cover the game. That's a bad bet when you're betting an NFL game, an underdog and you know five minutes into the game you are toast cooked. That's a horrible bet. 

03:40 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I thought the Rams were dead yesterday, though. How about that? How about that comeback? You had the Rams. I had. 

03:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The Rams were dead yesterday, though. How about? That how about that comeback. You had the Rams, I had the Rams. Yeah, money line, a little bit of a lucky one. No, just spread Spread. Okay, take it. 

03:51 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Just spread. But what are you going to do? It's been a good couple weeks. I'm really happy. The season's back, everything's been going. We're approaching soon, in the All time you know, the one month of perfection for the season, where you have the college football, nfl, nba, nhl, mlb playoffs overlap. That's coming soon. Nhl preseason started. Nba preseason is going to start soon. It's a good time to be a sports fan. 

04:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a good time to be a better it's a great time to be a better and it's a great time to bet at Pinnacle Sportsbook, the world's sharpest sports book available to bettors across Canada. Find out what the pros have known for decades Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 21 plus not available in the US, as always. Please play responsibly and if you do sign up to Pinnacle in Canada, use code HAMMER. It does support us here. On Circles Off Great book Unfortunately, I took them for I mean they might want to cut the sponsorship at some point with the amount I took them for this weekend at some point or another. But yeah, check out Pinnacle. Honestly, it's great. You can get like really good limits there as well. Really really solid stuff of course, of course. 

04:54 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
So you know, with the season coming up, we wanted to do another Q&A. We always get a ton of questions in the DMs. We appreciate you guys for supporting the show, so we actually got a ton of questions. I think we might have to split this up into two episodes, but I'll kick it off. I wanted to also say one kind of trend. We've been doing Q&A episodes. Maybe this is probably going to be around the 10th one or so. Zach, maybe you could tell me exactly More, but I'll check. 

05:19
When we first started we're talking probably three or so seasons ago we had the majority of the q a questions were in regards to modeling modeling sports. How do I set up an excel model, what it's better, r or python? You know how do I factor in like this, this is this into my models? And now this is the first one where I think we maybe got two questions about modeling and way more questions about steam chasing, top down betting, how can I like read the market and stuff like that. So amazing shift. I think that's where the industry is kind of headed and we're happy to be at the forefront of that on this podcast and talking about that. So hopefully we can answer as much as we can. 

06:01
I do want to say one thing when we're talking about these strategy things, can I do want to say one thing when we're talking about these strategy things, a lot of times they are dependent on you as a specific person. So when we have a bankroll of a million dollars is a significantly different answer than a bankroll of a thousand dollars for a lot of these questions. So we'll try to answer them as best we can. If you have specific situations that are directly related to your specific you know, directly to you, dm us with like way more details, because a lot of these questions we got I'm going to have to scenario play. We had, you know, it's like, okay, I would do this and this and this, but we'll make it happen. Dm us all the time. We're always willing to help. Uh, rob, we'll kick it off with some strategy ones. 

06:38
So, number one all right, the old age, old classic guys love the show. I have a question for you from a pure top down market standpoint. Let's say you don't originate your own numbers. College basketball total opens 152 minus 10, reaches 156, but ultimately closes 154. Assume minus 110 aside, so you open 152 up to 56, down to 54. Would you rather under 156 or over 152? Or are they essentially the same expected value? We've gotten variations of this question. 

07:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's actually a good question. I like the specifics of this question. Whoever sent that one in? Big fan, big fan of the specifics. What would you rather have there? Okay, so I'm gonna. It's more than just the number. Okay, so this is college basketball specific. He says Correct, if you're betting, I would rather have under 156. The reason why is I was probably way more likely to get down a bigger bet after the market had already moved that much for one, and I think I'm betting later into the market. 

07:49
For everyone can beat college basketball totals. I mean, I'm just gonna call it out for what it is Like. If you're betting early college basketball totals, there's a very, very high likelihood that you're gonna beat them. Very high likelihood. If you have any semblance of what you're doing like let's you know. I don't wanna sound arrogant or whatever, but tons of people beating college basketball totals. The problem is it's really hard for them to do volume when they're betting openers or betting early. So generally I don't mind and this is not only about college basketball, but in a lot of major markets I don't actually mind fading the steam move and ending up with a good, good number. That's my personal preference and that's who I am as a better, but they're both like at the end of the day. Both of those are are solid position position. 

08:32 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
So I'll say slightly different answer. 

08:34
I've done a ton of work into this and I'll tell you guys right now like over a long enough sample size, it's actually the same expected value it's. It's if, if I were to favor one, I'd prefer the under, I'd prefer the later move and playing back on the steam, I would prefer that if you just gave me a one-time scenario, like life on the line, but over a long enough sample size, I do actually believe it's going to be roughly the same expected value. Like give or take, let's say 0.1%. So obviously the goal there is just get what you can. That beats the close, um, but don't necessarily think that because something faded down you're going to have a better position than if it went up up earlier in the week. Whatever the closing line is, that's the most efficient number we have at the time and, uh, you know, obviously, caveat being this is college basketball total a lot of potentially, you know, manipulation here and there. So in one any like single given instance, you'll never know. But over the long enough sample it's going to be roughly the same. 

09:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Next up, next up, okay so Just out of curiosity, are those the exact same CLV, though they're probably slightly different? 

09:40 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
They will actually be a slight bit different Like, but it would be like a very small amount. In this scenario. It's roughly the exact same, but it would be easier if you calculated this in a money line bet. Would you rather have plus 45? Exactly, you guys get the point, though Roughly the same. I think the under is slightly better value. So there you go, because it's two points up, but. 

10:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I understand what the question was getting at and the idea was like okay, you know, you're basically at the midpoint. 

10:11 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Okay, this one here. Okay, so you and your guests or sorry, actually, just guests, basically have talked about using parlays as an EV play. Is this because it's a way to keep the account from being limited, or is this more to get around limits, or actually the most optimal way to bet advantage versus betting individual games? So I can start about that one right now. Basically, I guess you can say a little bit of everything, but the main reason why you'd want to potentially put something in a parlay is, honestly, just because most people don't know what a parlay is. All you're doing is just betting a little bit more and compounding your bet. So you bet your first game, that's going to roll over and that same amount is just going to go on to the second game. 

11:02
So if you have two EV bets, it's kind of overall better to stack them. However, there's a lot more variance involved in that and if you don't have the bankroll, then betting straight, to be honest, is actually much more desirable, because when you parlay, especially if you're parlaying anything above a 2X, the variance involved in that is significant. So you're going to need a significantly larger bankroll within that single sports book account to make that worth it. So I personally like I would not recommend playing parlays at all. If you can bet straight and hit your unit size, you need to be betting straight, is there's not much value to playing parlays? However, if you're really looking to take some shots, I think it might look a little better in the accounts. 

11:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so the stuff on like the account priming and like keeping your accounts alive over time when we talk about that stuff, it's basically based off of our own experiences. Right, it's pure speculation. Like I'm very adamant about doing some things in accounts that have historically worked for me. That maybe gets the account profiled as a square account or keeps it alive a little bit longer. But I talk to other people who do the same thing and they don't have the same experience. So it's really-. 

12:16
Yeah, nobody knows, nobody knows the we're not in the trading room, like we're not traders, we're not the guys that go through people's accounts. We don't know how every single sports book profiles their players. I do think that if you're starting to take, like big money line favorites and parlaying them together, that to me is like a recreational move, right. Like if you're going to take every number one and two seed in March Madness and put them all in a parlay. If I was a trader reviewing that account, I would say that that's like a. It's probably a square better doing that. 

12:48 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Yeah, also like what's the parlay? Like it's still gonna look sharp. If it's sharp stuff in the parlay, just because it's a parlay doesn't really matter. 

12:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's a lot of things here. The reality is I get frustrated when people speak in absolutes in sports betting. I actually do do this sometimes myself, so I have to accept some of the blame. There was a tweet this week that I quote tweeted about buying points. Some guy's like, oh, everyone's upset at Mikey Overs or whatever because he bought points on a game, but pro bettors do this. Somebody tweeted that and I've just responded and I put like no, they don't. The reality is there would be occasions where a pro better buy buy points if they're buying a point, that at a price where it's advantageous for them to do so. 

13:36 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Yeah so they're not just buying points because of the they feel they need, like they have a feel on this game that it's going to land for. Yeah, this is right away. 

13:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Good bettors buy down and and lay a little more juice if they feel more comfortable with the number. No, they don't. It has nothing to do with the comfort, it's math. It's just a math. Yes, a good better might buy points. It's the same thing with the parlays. Right parlays can be advantageous. You hear a lot of stuff in the space it's spoken in absolute don't bet parlays. Well, a lot of stuff in the space it's spoken in absolute Don't bet parlays. Well, a lot of people advocate for not betting parlays because most people are just stacking minus EV plays. If you're a losing better and you're already betting minus EV stuff and now you're starting to parlay that, your EV is just getting with each bet getting worse and worse. 

14:21 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Yeah, but I would still advocate for starting out to not bet parlays. 

14:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree. I agree, but I'm saying in terms of absolutes. Betting styles are different. If you have the bankroll, like you said, and you're comfortable with the variance, because now, all of a sudden, you're going to get into, you know, if you're putting everything in three, four game parlays, even if they're all great bets, you're going to have some prolonged losing periods regardless. You got to be able to deal with that stuff, so it's very loaded question, but, for me, I mostly parlay for account longevity. There are instances, though, where I will parlay, maybe because I need to get something in really quickly and it's all in front of me right away and I'm just hitting those all at one time. That happens Like player news, right, compounding player news, this player's out. Okay, now I'm on the receiving yard screen. I have to bet all these guys over right away. I'm just going to throw them all in because I know it's all an edge and I got to do this quickly before it moves that happens. 

15:26 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Sgp is completely different story. We'll talk about that. Yeah, there's, there's edges to be had there. Okay, up next is this is a question by uh producer jason. Jason takes by jay. What is the most efficient way to incorporate round robin bets with kelly, assuming you have an edge on each leg? I don't even know why he's asking this. I have no idea why he's asking this. I don't even really know. I'm hoping Rob can answer this one. 

15:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, I never claimed to be like the perfect, better in terms of like. I see these debates on Twitter all the time and for one, they're above my pay grade. For two, I actually don't ever care to get involved with them. If someone's, you know, not optimizing their bet size because they missed by like a couple dollars, then whatever. But for me, I've never even considered this at any point in life, Nor have I Like. If I'm betting around Robin, I roughly know what my parlay bet size is going to be and I just I just do it based off of, like pure instinct, I would say yeah, I mean, I've never done it. 

16:32 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I to kelly's stake within the round robin. There's got to be some sort of calculation that does it. I mean, maybe someone one of our listeners, can, uh can, calc that for you, jason, but uh, it's. It's like it's a bit of a project for me to calculate this. I'm sorry. 

16:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm just speaking to my own experience, but I personally have played many, many round robins in my life, including this past week. I've never once thought of plugging them into Kelly. You just have a general idea of what you bet already, based off of Kelly. You look at the prices and you just like I don't know it's essentially throwing a dart. But have some use like use common sense every now and then. Is my response to that no? 

17:16 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It's a fine question, Like there's gotta be a calculator somewhere. Jason's gonna hear from me Next up, next up. We got man a lot of strategy questions on this. Okay, here's a cool one here, maybe for Rob. Is it plus EV to decline a sign-up bonus to look like a square? Alternatively, decline a $1,000 bonus and take something like a bet 10, get 50. 

17:41
So I believe, in the shipper episode that we had, I want to say that he spoke about profiling people based off of sign up it was based off of how they use the sign up bonus, meaning, are they using it optimally, on the correct odds, are they staking it all there or are they putting it on something that's negative uv. However, it's pretty. I feel like it's pretty suspicious to sign up for a book and not and like purposely opt out of the sign up bonus because, like, who, yeah, who is doing that. 

18:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree with you that. That, I think, is, I would just say like don't, don't use it optimally like maybe even take it. 

18:19 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I'd say an all-time square move. Is you take it and let it expire that that's? That's a a better square move than opting over the bonus and then contact customer service and then say my bonus expired. I need this bonus. 

18:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's not bad. I haven't put much thought into this, but definitely Shipper saying that they looked at this when he was with his sports book back in the day. 

18:44
I'm sure other books were are looking at this stuff. So I get it. I would say my gut feel is that you take it and you just don't use it optimally. We know you should bet dogs a lot with this stuff. If it's a free bet, yeah. If it's a free bet, especially Throw the free bet on a minus 1,000,. You look like a complete idiot, but you're gonna still probably get something out of it. You know what I'm getting at Like you're still getting something out of the bonus, but you're looking like a moron in the process. 

19:13 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Could be something there. All right, how do you deal with bankroll management when your money is spread out between a bunch of different books? I currently have a bankroll of around 20,000, but it is distributed unevenly across books More at DraftKings and Caesars, less at FanDuel because I keep losing on baseball props. Should you be constantly rebalancing accounts or just sizing units to the bankroll at that given account? 

19:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So here's what I do personally. So I have money in a lot of different regulated books and I do balance them depending on my volume, right? There's nothing worse. If I'm going to bet college football props on a Saturday morning. I don't want to run out of money in an account because there was, I had, 10,000 sitting in another account that I'm not betting into in that morning. So I try to redistribute based off of my volume, like, and that's. 

20:08
We talk about the importance of bet tracking all the time and you can you know if you're tracking your bets properly and what books you're placing at them at, you're going to notice that you're betting a lot more in some spots than others. Have those accounts more well-funded than the other accounts, like? That's just how I approach it. On a weekly basis, I do a Monday update see where I'm at in every account. I know generally how much I'm going to be betting on a college Saturday or NFL Sunday into those accounts and I will redistribute from one book to another. If I had a really good week or if I'm not using one, I'll start withdrawing from there and moving the funds over to somewhere else. 

20:45 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Yeah, I think at the end of the day, like 20,000, it's a good size bank roll, right? You're not talking about like a thousand bucks. My answer would be different for that. But also, once you get to a certain amount, this wouldn't be an issue. So you're in the unique case where this is an issue for you because it's 20,000. So you can't really spread these across everywhere. It might be 5K a book. You're trying to bet 1,000, 2,000. You're going to get in play. 

21:07
What I'd say here is it's actually fine to like load it all up into one book if that's the book that you have an edge with. But I'm not saying then you can't be like betting stuff there at worse prices than the other book. But if you had an edge, for example betting a specific thing where the most of your money was earned at sports book A, then it's actually plus EV to withdraw everything from your other three, four sports books. Put it all into sports book A and try to run up the balance. So at your level right now, you're not focusing on like ROI growth. You're really just focusing on how can I make the most amount of money, how can I grow this bank, grow from 20K up to 100, up to 130? 

21:47
So if that's your goal, then basically, like Rob said, figure out where your edges are. Tracking is super important. You got to figure. Okay, I'm actually down on baseball props on FanDuel, so I think I have an edge here, but maybe it's only a percent edge. I have a 3% edge at this book and I have a 3% edge at this book and I have a 7% edge at this book. So I need to be putting that money in on the 7% edge right now and growing that up. So in certain scenarios what I'd say is, um, yeah, like you could, there's, it's highly likely for you right now in this scenario that you should be going all in on one book and trying to run that 20 up to 50 at that one book and then redistributing back once that edge is gone or once you've been cut. 

22:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, also depends on what's being bet into them as well, and like, if you're just line shopping, like if you're just top down line shopping or whatever, or not even top down, it could be bottom up and just like line shopping in particular, you're gonna wanna have the outs. That that you can do that either way. That you can do that. It really depends on what you're betting. Really interesting there you said to grow your bankroll from $20K to $100K to $130K. Yeah, what was the? 

22:57 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It seems pretty logical Is that $20K? I was going to say he wants to grow from $20K to $100K to $1 million, and then I'm like it's a million, but so you went. 

23:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You went to 100 millions aggressive. 

23:07 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
And then I was thinking okay, from 20 to 100. And then it just popped out 20 to 100 to 130. But hey, 20 to 130 is a nice. Come up, it's 110k profit. You keep, you keep 100 in the roll, 10 out spend. That that's a fair. 

23:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a fair number no, I'm just saying, like if I had a 20k bankroll, like, okay, I have a goal to grow this to 100, right, and then, like you're like, mission accomplished, what's the next goal gonna be? Like no one's saying it's gonna be 130, I'm striving for 130. 

23:35 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Next, next checkpoint 130. No, that, that's fair, that's fair. Uh okay, couple. Uh well, you know what? We'll switch gears here for a bit. 

23:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Podcast slash personal topics. Got a couple on here. I like that you titled the section as well. 

23:52 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It's a nice grid I have here on my computer I, I, I Did you put this in Excel. Yeah, I always make a little. 

23:56 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
You organize them in Excel. I always make a little grid. This is the biggest Excel guy of all time. 

24:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know you're a big Google Sheets guy. Everything you have. You have this habit you take the first column never, never haven't done. He reduces it to like a really small size and the first row and the same thing you have. You have like an artificial border that you create when, when did you start that? 

24:27 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I can't even work on a sheet. 

24:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It drives me crazy because I freeze pains a lot and I don't know, I don't, I don't it's just like clean. 

24:35 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
To me it's like clean, so it's more of a mental thing. It's my own. 

24:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Thing. 

24:38 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Okay, yeah, but yes, you, you picked up that If I send you a sheet, it always has that and they're like what the like always every sheet you send has never not had a sheet that has the the first call. 

24:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you? Do you have a specific size you? 

24:52 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
reduce it to as well. No, they just have to be the same size, but it could be anything. All right, podcast slash personal here. What are your thoughts on Kyle Kerms calling you guys scammers? This was from our buddy, the prop dude. 

25:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Zach, do you got more details on this? 

25:11 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Oh, by the way. Yeah, I have no idea what this was. I was hoping you guys knew, yeah. 

25:15 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
Did he call us out, yeah? 

25:17 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Kerms, the sauce, the sauce he called us out. 

25:20 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
Yes, just briefly. Like I obviously see all the YouTube comments since we did that episode, he like responded positively. Basically just to kind of give the brief context he was responding positively and then over the last couple of months it's turned pretty negative where he's commenting every couple days, basically calling you guys scammers. For what? And saying that the information you gave out is bad, you're giving out bad math, giving out bad tips, and that nothing he said in that video is wrong. Everything he said is right. 

25:58 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
And that you guys are the ones who. How are we doing a bad math? 

25:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
he literally said this, his strategy is the martingale strategy, said it's. He said it's guaranteed to win. I have to fill in some blanks here. First of all, that really upsets me. Yeah, so the sauce, our boy. After that video, after that video which, if people don't know what we're talking about, we did a reaction reaction video to a betting strategy piece of content that was on YouTube by Kyle Kerms the Sauce it was one of our previous episodes Got a lot of views, honestly, probably because Kyle Kerms has a pretty large following in YouTube and people were seeking it out and a lot of people were upset that we did that one. By the way, we don't take personal attacks in these. 

26:34 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
If he wants to call Rob a scammer, fine. At least he gives out losing picks. On Wednesdays I don't even give out picks. 

26:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He touched base with me after this video. We chatted back and forth via Twitter DMs. I actually had a call with him because I wanted to have him on Circles Off. Part of the reason was that he was saying that, well, like this was. You guys picked an old video of me. Fair, I've learned a lot about sports betting since then. You guys were fair. I just want like a chance to you know, talk about myself, because you've portrayed an alternate reality of who I actually am as a person. I'm like, okay, we'll do it. Touch base with him. I'm just looking. You know. 

27:16
He messaged me on July 15th what's up, man? Did you want to record an episode soon? I said let me talk to my producer, we'll see what works. I'm traveling to Europe for a few weeks and then have Bet Bash in Vegas, but we'll try to make it happen. That was like the last conversation. It hasn't come up. We pre-planned these episodes well in advance. Like for those that don't know, I also have my own Google sheet with like stuff coming up. Sometimes the stuff just falls by the wayside. I would have liked to have Kyle Kerms on. Seriously, I would have honestly given him the platform If he's commenting on videos saying like we are scammers and the stuff that was in that original video of him is correct. Then like I'm not gonna have the guy on because obviously he's delusional and clueless. Like you can't go on and and talk about martingale strategy as some great strategy for bit like that video was, but it wasn't even that man like pretty much everything in his video is wrong, like he didn't. 

28:11 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It was like here's all the tips to win and then every single thing was wrong. I don't even think he had any good advice. Except when he's like this. He's like you got to track your stuff and we're like okay, here he goes. And then he's like because if you went 0 for this week, no way you're going 0 for next week. Yeah, that was just. Everything was terrible. 

28:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I didn't know this was happening. 

28:34 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
in all honesty, oh Kerms man the sauce. 

28:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is upsetting, I guess. I guess we are not going to have him on Circles Off after all at this point, that's brutal man. 

28:45 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I'm actually going to talk to him. That's brutal. Yeah, message him, man, I'm going to shoot him. Video had we were definitely not adding this, but at the bottom it was just a ticker of all the games and odds going. Yeah, I remember that like a like a vegas ticker it was, I don't know. I did a good production I mean quality was fine or whatever. 

29:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The content itself was was brutal, but the sauce man I don't know. Yeah, now I'm uh, it is like I I actually have a list of potential guests here. He's still on the list. I was gonna reach out. Now I the list. I was going to reach out, now I'm not going to reach out, I'm still going to reach out, but I'm just going to tell him that we're not going to have him on because he's been dissing us. 

29:23 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
No good, no good, we've got to have Fezzik back on. What are my? 

29:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
thoughts on Kyle Kerms calling me a scammer. 

29:28 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
My thoughts are not good great, I didn't even know this happened. 

29:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Man, they're not great. Leave it to prop dude to be but you know what I saw? 

29:34 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I saw like you guys were sending me the comments to start, where he's like yeah, I was younger, I didn't really know a lot of this stuff, it was wrong. And then now he's just saying it was right. Okay, it is what. It's, the sauce man, the sauce he wanted. 

29:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He wanted me to go on his sunday morning um show that he does on his youtube channel. I'm like, I do my own show on Sundays. I can't do it. He asked if I could get Powers or Kanish to do it. I think Kanish has just ignored all his DMs, which is fine. I mean, kanish doesn't have to answer every DM to go on on Saturday. It just never worked out. They're doing their own Saturday content for us as well, but I don't know, it's not good Krims, not good for Krims. I actually talked to Kyle. We had a video call. We were chatting, we were talking for half an hour. 

30:21 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I honestly Too bad you scammed everyone out with that. Titans pick. I'm blindsided. 

30:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm blindsided. 

30:26 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Yeah sure you went 5-0 on the late slate after that Titans pick. Where's that document at Fizzola? Yeah, All right. Where is that documented? Fizzola All right. Somebody else asked about the grape challenge. They want us to do the grape challenge. Rob gave out his plus, if you move of the week was to put a frozen grape in his water. I claim that you would be able to taste it, because there's got to be some sort of chemical imbalance there and basically we have to set up a challenge where we get just like a drink. 

30:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
To be clear, over time, a long period of time, there will definitely be some sort of chemical alteration, like it's replacing an ice cube outside on a hot day, you're saying an ice cube on a hot day. 

31:04 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Okay, so if you're on a hot day, if you just put an ice cube in right away, it's not melting, you don't have an issue. When do you start to have an issue of the ice cube? Let's say, after six minutes. 

31:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, like, for example, say you were to take a beverage out to the pool, just a random example On a summer day you leave your beverage outside on, like you know, just like everyone does, right outside the pool. Yeah, after five minutes, if that thing's got ice in it, it's toast. 

31:31 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It's going to be all watered down. It's diluted. You drink it, it's watered down. Okay, so here's what we'll do. Then We'll leave it out for six minutes. Water with what do you want to do? 

31:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Water, sparkling water, something that's like You're not drinking booze right now. 

31:43 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
No, but also like I doubt you were putting the grape in a beer. 

31:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It would be like a vodka soda A vodka soda. 

31:52 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Okay, so let's say we'll take that drink, we'll do one with a grape, one no grape, or a couple of grapes, whatever you were going to put. We leave it six, seven minutes to set. I guarantee you I'd taste the grape. 

32:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Here's the problem with that 50-50 odds. 

32:05 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
anyway, it's a 50-50 chance. 

32:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know, but if I get it wrong though, like if we did 10 of them and you had to pick out the five that have the grape in it that would be a much better reflection of if there's really a taste to it or not. Do you know what I'm saying? Because you could easily get the one out of two yeah, no, absolutely I don't know if there's a better way to do. 

32:24
If people have a good way of doing this comment down below, we'll do it. I don't think you're getting off. There's no way. It's changing the the taste of the beverage that quick. An hour. Sure, I will concede. If you put a frozen grape into a beverage in the sun after an hour, it's definitely not frozen and definitely infusing into the drink. I will concede that. 

32:47 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Okay, well, we'll do the challenge. I'm historically incredible at these challenges, historically, historically. 

32:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm incredible at these challenges. 

32:56 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Historically, I'm incredible at these challenges. Once I did a coffee tasting of five coffees and everyone's like, bro, you're not going to be able to taste this shitty coffee machine difference with this and this. I said line them up and guess who went? Five for five? Your boy, the sauce, AKA, Anyways, the. 

33:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sugo the. 

33:17 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Sugo the Sugo. Okay, let's see what else we got. So those are some personal questions. I mean we do get a lot of stupid ones. Not going to lie, I sometimes have to omit these, but a great challenge is not stupid. 

33:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know how they say like, no, like no question is a stupid question. Back in the day they encourage you to participate in class. There are some stupid questions. Some of these can be Googled in two seconds. Google is your friend. Some cases it might betray you, but like some really easy stuff here you could quickly Google. That said, we did appreciate the. We got a lot of questions this week. We got a lot. They were DM, they were emailed, they were DMed to me. We got some on our YouTube channel. Appreciate everyone who gave questions. We're gonna try to answer as many as possible, but also I'm not gonna talk about how I fill out my taxes. People, for the millionth time, you can stop sending me tax questions. I'm not an accountant. I seek financial advice from my own accountant. I suggest you do the same. 

34:17 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
That's it Back to the industry. Here Is the VIG. This is actually an interesting question Is the VIG incorporated into odds by third-party providers or the sportsbooks traders themselves add the VIG, okay, so basically you got to think of that. Think of it like this there is like odds, the odds depends on the sports book first off. So there's some sports book that just that's just used like third party providers that manage the trading and everything. Okay, I don't know, should I list some books or no, well, you're like prop builders. 

34:51
An example no, I'll give you an example like so, so, um, you know how certain books have the exact same onset. So you might see one book, let's say bet rivers, has the same onset as other books. That's because they use a provider that manages the risk for them. So they'll manage the risk, they'll set everything in that scenario. It'll be up to that rivers uh management team to to say we want to take this vig on all these markets. And then they'll tell those guys be like okay, okay, we deal minus 110 sides on nfl, on props, we deal minus 20 minus 20 on this live. We do the minus 30 minus 30 for this sport whatever. And they tell them and those guys just run with it and they manage the trading. So when you have your own uh, basically you are just the third party. So an example of that would be our great show sponsor, pinnacle. 

35:38
They obviously make their own lines in-house. So for their stuff, what they would do is they'd make the lines and they'd figure out okay, we want to take this much juice on these sports and they'll try to keep that consistent. And oftentimes you might see specific sports or specific markets where even one game might have like a little bit more of a vig versus the other games. You're like wait, why is that? This might be a confidence level. They can make it in-house, so it's not a third party provider that's ever making the odds. It's more, your own internal team is doing it, and if you contract somebody else, then their internal team is doing it and you might be able to give them a hint. Hey, I don't want to do this. Oftentimes, they don't even actually tell them the specifics. They'll just say hey, our target is we want to earn this much hold percentage. So, based on the volume we're going to get, we want to earn this much hold percentage. That's your target. 

36:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You go ahead and set whatever juice you think that's going to earn us that much, and then that third party company will be responsible for doing that. How's that answer? It's pretty good. It's very in line with my experience. Like you know, we can reset the board to zero now, but when I was in the offshore space back in the day, you know we would have some of the trading done in-house on certain markets. But there would be stuff like prop builder, which is like an external tool from a third party, and you'd negotiate with them and there was always an option Do you want to manage your own risk in-house or do you want us to manage the risk on our end? If we manage the risk on our end, then we can incorporate data from other sports books as well to help you manage your risk. So that conversation happens. It really depends on the market, depends on the book. There's a lot to it. But yeah, you laid it out pretty well there. 

37:19 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Yeah, so that's basically it. And then when it comes to actually moving the prices as well, that's another thing that would just be done by the trading team. So we're talking about like the actual VIG here, like minus 10, minus 10. But when they're talking about moving it, it's a lot differently. You know this different sports book traders are going to move on air. Some are going to move on action. When I say move on air, I mean they just see the markets there. They might've not even taken a bet, they'll just move that thing. But if there's others, like pinnacle for example, that have an auto mover where when they get bet it'll automatically move, so moving is a lot different than like what are they setting it at. But that's roughly how the initial-. 

37:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Nowadays, like the sports book traders, they watch the forward progress, best bets show on Wednesdays and when the best bet comes out they actually move in the other direction. It's a surefire sign that we should be faded at this point. I actually only say that in jest, but a lot of the stuff does move, like on content creation now, like literally traders watch not just us but watching other content in the space and moving off of that stuff. So it's like move off anything nowadays really. 

38:20 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Okay, I've got to see what the order is here. I'm going all over the place. Is it better to go all over the place or go one topic? I don't want the people to get bored, you know. 

38:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, that's why I leave this job to you. It's actually one of the toughest jobs is structuring the order of the question I have them segmented so nicely, but then you go out of order anyways. 

38:42 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It's like why not just read them top to bottom, like like spanky there when he read that, that bot question, oh yeah, that was. 

38:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was too much. I remember that I was at the end of like one of the early Be Better, betters. 

38:53 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Did we talk about that yet on the pod I don't know. It was a porn bod. One of the funniest things that happened in the industry. 

39:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you should at least do like a listen. 

39:03 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
No, no, I'm happy he didn't. He said he'll answer every question. See, we're not even as good as that. We cut out questions. 

39:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll get questions and be like, no, we're not answering that question. It's not good for the show, it doesn't make sense spanky went top to bottom. Let's answer every question, bro, but it's a matter of perspective. Like we know spanky we found that hilarious because we know. But imagine you're like a, you're a better you. Just you just found out about spanky. You've heard like this guy is like some super sharp, better you listen to his first pod. He's reading off a question from a porn bot you're the question for all those listening. 

39:36 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
The question was just like one of those bots, like one of those girl bots, and then, and then it was just like, would you smash? And it was like in the bottom ones, and he's like ah like it's funny was one of the best things. Spank shout out man. That was uh, that was awesome, and bet bash was actually incredible spanky listens to all of our episodes. He'll be listening. He'll be listening. 

39:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Because he found the hidden song at the end of a couple episodes ago and he messaged. He tweeted at us Great song. I hated that song, man, you hated that song? No, I thought it was amazing. I've listened to it like 15 times over. That song, oh, we got so much. There's an Easter egg in the audio only version. 

40:16
Yeah, yeah, there's a hidden song at the end, At the end of the Joey Tunes episode which and last week too Zach inserted to see how many people get to the end of the episode and the hidden song we started to get people tweeting about it, so people are actually listening all the way through which is good. 

40:36 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
Well, I wanted to see what would happen. And then, of course, the first person who messaged me, our friend Prop Dude Bro, what the fuck is that song? 

40:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Call customer service Message saying that I got to find the message. He was a big fan, I guess. If you like, country. 

40:56 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
No, I like country who did the song for you guys. 

40:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's pretty good. That's what he said. That's what he said it was a good tune. 

41:04 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It was a good tune. Anyways, back to the questions here. So you know I'm saving this one for later. That's just a phenomenal question. How are originators compensated within a betting group? Are they typically risk on or do they get a free roll Pizzola? 

41:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It depends on the originator themselves. Actually, it depends on the group themselves. Some groups don't like giving free rolls, some don't mind, but it really depends on the originator's appetite for risk is what it comes down to Lots of times. Most common practice is if you reach out to a group, you're originating something, you have an edge. It's very common for it to be a 50-50 split. Originator takes 50% risk on every bet, the group takes 50% risk. But if you're undercapitalized and you can't do that, a lot of groups will still work with you. They'll just put you on a free roll. Usually it could be anywhere from like 10 to 25%, depending on how good the stuff is let's just put it that way or how likely they feel it's going to win. 

42:09 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I'm not a big fan of the free rolls there neither am I, but it is a competitive space. I'm more, I'm more I should be get, I should be accepting free rolls from people. Bro, I'll just accept like 20 free rolls. Give them all. Give them all out like a bunch of plus a thousand. One hits and I win and then the other reach out about betting my nhl nowadays, right? 

42:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Or they're like yeah, like, let me move your NHL. I'm like why it's very easy for me to fill the bets at very good prices. I don't need anything Like I'm not taking more risk on these bets, I'm betting the maximum that I can on them. Like what good is it for me? But I actually don't mind. Listen, there's some people who actually have an edge. It usually it's in niche markets and the reality is like when somebody comes to me and they're like oh, I can be. You know, I have this big edge on whatever EuroLeague basketball, maybe even worse than that, like Division VII Peruvian soccer my first thought is like if I probably spent a couple hours on this, I probably could figure out what that edge is and also beat it myself. But I don't want to do that and in a lot of cases it's actually better for me to put someone who I know is going to win on a free roll than split 50-50 with them. 

43:29 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
In those scenarios, yes, but a lot of times I don't know man People message me and they're like hey, you got no any good originators for NFL sides. They're willing to give a free roll. I'm like how, how are you willing to give a free roll on that? Like sure, yeah, I'll know. I like I don't. I don't do it Cause I don't want to, I don't want to scam people. 

43:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was like yo, I'll do it, sure, like I was giving you seven picks a week Like what do you? What do you need? Yeah, that's um, I don't the bet. I got into betting. I'm only at the level that I am now because I was given a free roll. I do. I know. I recall Like I never would have been betting a couple of times on baseball games if I wasn't given a free roll to do that. Like I accelerated my bankroll growth so quickly. 

44:21 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Just and you probably made them some good money too. 

44:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But overall, I think about it after the fact I'm like I think about how much they were betting on the games where they were giving me two. I was getting rinsed on that deal Like absolutely. 

44:36 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
But for starting, oh, that's actually not even a rinse job. 

44:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But it's not until it's not it's not choice of words it's not until until you know I looked right at Zach, he wasn't even looking it's not until you know the amounts. Like at that time I had no clue. Like they're betting game day baseball and the market is moving Like we're talking, probably a hundred K a pop on some good, some good, some good, and they're giving me000 of that which at that time Better than zero At that time I was ecstatic, I was loving life. 

45:11
This was amazing for me. I didn't have the bankroll to bet that I can't complain. But I think back to it afterwards I'm like, oh, that first year I ever did hockey was on a free roll of, I want to say, $3,000 or $4,000 bets, something like that. I won a couple hundred thousand that first year of hockey. Roi was absurd. It was like 15% sides and totals. I think about what the people who were betting won off of that. Like I won a couple hundred K doing that. They won at least 10 times that, if not more. You got to find some originators. 

45:51 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I know there you go, yep um, why do you guys think there's so little good content about survivor pools out there? You know what I don't know? Okay, there really is not that much good, but it's also because, like, what are you going to say? 

46:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
exactly. 

46:06 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It's so dependent on your team and pool structure and what teams you have available. 

46:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Exactly. It's the worst question I get on Pizza Buffet every Sunday morning. It's at the end of the show. Who are the survivor picks? I can't tell you how many people are in your pool. Is it a big pool? Do you have to pick Thanksgiving Day games? It's math. Survivor pools are math-based If you don't know the details. 

46:29 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I'm out of circa. By the way, I didn't last past week too. Three years in a row, three years in a row. I didn't get. Past week too. I didn't make the picks. Did you do 10 entries? Do I look like a guy who wouldn't max his entries? Do I look like a guy that would click less than the max bet? So here's please. You definitely do not. Um, I have an argument before, because I just said that if you're clicking less than max, don't bet it. That is a serious and incredible piece of advice. If you are clicking less than the max, bet you. You should not be clicking the button. And I'm, I'm, I'm hard, I'm standing on that pat. 

47:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, Nothing worse than the sharp guy at pinnacle who can get like 800 bucks on a prop. That's betting 50 and moving the entire no that is unacceptable. 

47:17 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
But also like if you're, let's say, the limit on the games is is 50,000, and you're like, oh, I can't afford to be betting 50,000. I can only bet 20,000. You shouldn't be betting that because, like you're not, you're not in a spot. Or even you're like, okay, the limit's 50,000. I'm going to bet 2000. Like that can't be that good a bet. Find something where the limit's a thousand and you want to bet more on it. That's when you're going to make the most amount of money. 

47:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm with you on that. So the survivor Circa, survivor, I'm not going to like be a. I enter every year the 10 max Pizza man 69. 

47:48
No, I don't give out the name. It wouldn't be too hard to figure it out, though I'll tell you that Robbie Marbles. No, robbie Marbles is what Philly Godfather used to call me back in the day. Marbles is like a synonym for like a square or something like that. Yeah, robbie Marbles, I only keep one entry myself and then I give out the other entries to betting partners For free. Yeah, but we do a combined thing where whoever's entry if somebody was to cash, everett splits the person whose entry cashed will keep 50% of the pot. The other ones that are there will also split the 50%. That's not bad. That way, when you're out, you're still rooting. You have a rooting interest. I lost on Detroit against Tampa in week two. My own personal entry. We have two left. We have two left, suma and a buddy of mine. 

48:44 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
So you're still rooting on those to take a split. It's 15 mil right yeah, oh, it's gonna be a good amount. 

48:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So let's. And, by the way, single winner is realistic this year it's still gonna be tough to get a single winner. 

48:58 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
But, bro, I know, I know, I know it's gonna be tough but it's realist. 

49:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not. It's not outside the realm of possibilities with the amount of people that are eliminated now that you could get a single winner. So we're potentially talking about one person in our group. If they won, could take seven and a half million themselves and the other 10, the other nine split split 700 almost a mil canadian. 

49:19 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Almost a mil canadian or a mil canadian roughly right, right. 

49:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I also have to get them to sign a document that my attorney put together about uh like splitting it and uh and the. If I have to pay taxes on it, it has to be deducted from that, like I had to do this at like a, because now we're dealing with like a large amount of money if someone wins, yeah expected values one thousand dollars buddy but chill, you can't be sweating survivor until week 15 ev on every entry now is maybe. You didn't go up that much. No, no, it's not that much. 

49:49 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Yeah, it's like six grand. 

49:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Still good One K up to six he's talking about trying to sell his entry for 20K. Who's buying an entry for 20K? 

49:55 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I might be interested. George, Send me a message. 

49:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But the reality is first of all Survivor. 

50:02 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I actually would buy that like a slight bit above market value. Just to say I took GRP's entry and won. 

50:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That would be incredible. I would buy it and not submit a pick. Just so that his entry cannot ever win. 

50:17 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
GRP's entry. He would be talking about that forever. If someone bought his entry and won, he's like I cashed out 6,000 and won 50 million. 

50:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, but he would talk about how it was a great deal on his end and so everything, everything is always a great move for him. You know he's one of those guys he's like everything is a great move. Survivor content sucks Like who wants to hear it? It's not good. If you're not interested in Survivor and you do your own picks, it's it sucks. And also the guys who are just handicapping Survivor, without talking about the ownership percentages, like you might as well just kill me if that's the case. Like, oh, I like this team to win this week because of the X, y and Z. You know it's like okay, who cares? 

51:01 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
No, the worst is the Survivor content, where they're like I don't like Baltimore because this defensive lineman is out this week. 

51:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like the spread's a spread it's just a game theory pool exactly game theory. 

51:12 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Also the reason I'm out in week two every year there's it's by design, because you don't take. You don't take the top two chalks on the board in survivor like you're trying to win this. You're trying to win this thing like you don't want to split it with a thousand people yeah, you listen, the reality is move of the week this is a. 

51:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This was a like a tough year not to get bounced in the early going. I avoided cincy, week one, which was chalk lost to new england. I avoided baltimore, week two, chalk lost to the raiders. But I just you. You got to pick a winner still you still got to pick. Yeah, there's so many mid-tier teams they lost fucking, fucking Lions had outgained the Bucs by 250 yards in that game. They scored one touchdown on seven trips in the red zone. What are you going to do the Bucs look? 

51:53 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
bad this week too. Oh, dude, no good. All right, is there a place where this is one of the one originating questions I got? We'll consider it origination. Hey, is there a place where you can find how often NFL defenses play specific coverages, cover two, cover three? Been searching for this, for haven't found anything. Haven't found anything, rob. You know where do you get your football data. 

52:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I get my football data through FTN. I pay for a data package. It's fairly strong. I pay for data for football. To me that's like at the level I'm betting at you need to. Yeah, yeah, I'm. I'm not just going on, I'm not like going into like a covers box score but it's a. 

52:36 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It's a rounding error, how much you're paying for the data agreed you have to. 

52:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just the cost of doing business in the betting market. If you're going to compete with, or try to compete with, the best bettors in the space you got to, you got to do so by any means necessary. I used to um work with a guy named frank brank. That's his real name, it's not made up I laugh all the time but he's working for ftn now and when he first went over there he's like you know, this is all the data that we're going to be plotting. That's going to be unique to everything in market and I use that. So that's where I get a lot of my coverage stuff. 

53:07
I have seen people posting to Twitter coverage data this year. I don't know where it's coming from. I honestly don't know if there's a public source. If there is and you use it, drop it in the comments below so that someone else can find it. But to me, I don't wanna be like I get it from, want to be like I get it from a I do. I get it from a private data source. If you want to pay for private data, you can do so, but I'm sure in a couple years. 

53:34 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Could be plus EV to pay for the to buy the data. 

53:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Depends on what you're doing, like it. 

53:38 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I've purchased a lot of stuff on data in the past and it's it's always like you think it's a lot but it's not like it's it's so much worth. It's so much it's even if you're like saving time just sorting through stuff that you could get for free and you're buying a subscription for like 100 a month, it's like well worth it. Yeah, uh, we'll end on this one for this episode. And then we got more questions. Uh, if it didn't get answered, we'll be in the next episode. So this one is something I think rob and I are gonna with Guys. How do you feel about placing a staggered parlay whereby you bet a five-leg parlay on EPL overs and unders, with the last two legs starting later or the next day, so that you can hedge? So you can hedge. I get criticized on Reddit for doing this, but I've been highly profitable doing this the last two seasons Thoughts. 

54:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wonder why he gets criticized on Reddit for doing this. Just don't bet the last few legs. If your intention is to hedge, Just bet the first three games. People do this all the time. This happens in the NFL with all my buddies. 

54:38 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
If you're betting for fun if you're betting for fun, it's amazing, because then it's like you got a three sweat. You got like three staggered sweats 1pm 4pm Sunday night. But if you're betting for profit, there's really no reason to bet games that start later, unless those are good games. 

54:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, the problem is a lot of people throw a lot of the like just the Sunday night football game into their bet for the sake of increasing the payout. Then it gets to the point where they have to make a decision on whether to hedge or not. They don't know how to optimally hedge for one. They're going through their own head asking every single one of their friends what do I do in this situation? How many DMs do I get on a weekly basis of? Should I hedge this bet? This is a matter of personal preference in a lot of these cases, but if you are going to hedge the last game, if you're always going to hedge the last game, then just don't put the last game in, because most of the time you're going to be hedging with a negative expected value play. 

55:34 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Well, the other part of that whole thing is why are you betting with the intention of it's just a lot more work as well? You're basically putting this in and being like, okay, I'd hedge it out if it lot more work as well. Like you're basically putting this in and being like, okay, I'd hedge it out If it got to the fifth leg. You're not. It's not even any, it's nothing. It's actually insane. If you're betting a bet, place it with intention of seeing that bet through, where you just, like you know your your phone's down and computers down and you have that bet in. If you're going to place and say I'm placing this bet, which is going to be a bigger bet, and then I'm going to hedge out live, because if I don't like the game, I'm going to hedge out live it's most likely a losing scenario, most likely a losing strategy. So, in general, I'm happy. 

56:18
You've been doing well. Potentially you have an edge on these If you've been doing well over the last couple of seasons playing the totals. If If you've been doing well over the last couple of seasons playing the totals. If you want to parlay them, go for it. But my recommendation to you would be don't necessarily look, even at the time of the game. Just put in the parlay the best games that you think are the best edges and set it and forget it. There's no need to even look at the time of the game. 

56:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep, like that. Plus EV, minus EV. Okay, I got a minus EV move of the week, go for it. I experienced this firsthand today. I went down to the BetStamp office. I was in the lunchroom, saw one of the workers there wearing a light colored pair of pants, eating some noodles sauce. Everywhere on the pants. 

57:01 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
The sauce, the sauce. 

57:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The sauce, it was Asian noodles. 

57:10 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I think I said the sauce like 16 times on this episode. 

57:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We need a sauce counter for this episode. It's been a lot Minus. Ev move is not taking into account what you're wearing when you order or eat food. It's actually a very crucial decision, even if you're in the workplace, whatever you're doing. If, if you're going to go to a restaurant and you're going to eat spaghetti with tomato sauce, you know you're going to be twirling it, it's going to be flinging when you're putting it, chances are there's going to be some splatter, you know you can put the no, you know, I agree with that. I agree with this. 

57:47
I agree with this but but don't wear a white shirt, don't wear a light colored shirt, wear something dark that, if it happens, whatever, your whole night is not ruined by, like you, trying to like get a little stain out, right, what? What you're wearing should influence what you eat way more than it does. If you're eating like soups and stuff like that and you're bringing it up over and you've got a shirt or even pants because some people like you know, like me, I'm like jittery all the time gonna get that on you, you really gotta be. Days where you were wearing a white shirt is a nice day to eat like a panini with like a salami and cheese, because you get some crumbs like nothing's gonna happen, right. But sauces they throw that for a loop. 

58:32 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I was gonna disagree with you. I was just gonna say like no, just be careful in your food, but there's obviously a chance you gotta factor in the value of no matter what, it doesn't matter yeah there could always be something. 

58:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You put something on your fork. Maybe it falls off. Or you know you can't eat perfectly every time, even if you're trying to eat perfectly, hell you might. You might get something like lodged in your throat. You cough quickly and like something you know you know it's also a scam. 

58:55 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Tied to go that doesn't work. I don't care what anyone says stinks. What a scam, bro. Tied to go. Tied to go doesn't work. Don't buy that doesn't even work, bro, you're gonna. It makes your thing, just smudges your stain. It just makes it worse. 

59:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Marketing very good marketing behind that. 

59:10 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Great marketing at that company. But no good, no good. I think that's it for this week. I have one. I guess I got to think of one for the next episode then. Do you guys want to? 

59:21 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
hear mine. Yeah, go ahead, zach. Okay. So I was gonna say this is gonna be an all-time dunk on myself. 

59:28
But I was gonna say negative ev is reading twitter and like getting annoyed with people on there. Like there's a guy that we know who tweets uh nfl stuff. He like charts things and grades them um quarterbacks, specifically in the nfl, yeah, and like it pisses me off. And then I was gonna make a joke the other day and I was gonna say on here like negative ev is reading this and like it pisses me off. And then I was gonna make a joke the other day and I was gonna say on here like negative EV is reading this and taking it seriously, because the guy is either a just the stupidest human to ever exist on the internet and Actually doesn't know or does know what he's doing. He's just doing it for engagement. I Was about to say this, but four days ago I fucking tweeted my own thing to troll people from toronto and it blew up and I was just being tweeting like an idiot and it got a lot of engagement. So like I am also the problem you're part of the problem, yeah, engagement 

01:00:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
farming yeah, it's hard engagement, farming, I mean listen, it happens in the space now like I'm not gonna lie. 

01:00:24 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
I was just doing as a joke, like yeah, but I realized as I was about to say it here that I did that. So I, if I was gonna say the first negative, ev there's probably gonna be people who are gonna be like, what about this? 

01:00:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm just getting in front of it, I did it, yeah, but yeah the internet's a tough place the reality is like, if I I know who you're referring to in specific about the grading of quarterbacks, we don't need to get into that or whatever. But like so many people get really, really rattled by that guy and it's like just just don't follow, like block him, mute him, do whatever you have to do to not see this guy's tweets anymore and just forget that he exists. But they just incessantly check his tweets nonstop and are constantly replying, replying like why do you do this to yourself? I don't, I don't really get that. That's. 

01:01:09 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I mean, that's a big, that's a big time suck, time waste yeah, I just thought of one right now that I think is pretty good. Negative ev move of the week is getting frustrated and mad at an n NFL coaching decision. 

01:01:26
That doesn't go for your bet and here's why it's negative EV. Okay, you got to factor those in. These coaches are most of these coaches are just making so many bad moves and to think like, oh yeah, this guy should have made the correct move, yes, but you could have predicted that they were not going to go for that on fourth down they were. You could have predicted that they were going to punt and that should have been factored into your bet. So you can't even be mad when a shitty coach makes a shitty call because you knew it was going to happen it's part it's. 

01:01:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is part of of sports betting gambling. You're, you're handy, you're trying to handicap the game before it happens and come up with, like the truest probabilities possible. Part of that has to be in-game decision making, like certain guys are always going to cost their teams with in-game decisions. That that's part of the handicap. There's a lot of variance in sports, for sure don't get me. 

01:02:18 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Even the refs, though, like oh, kc always gets these penalties, they get the penalties, they, they. I'll admit it now, I'm not even a guy kc they get, they get the penalties. 

01:02:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They also call for the most penalties in the league last year. 

01:02:29 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
But they get the calls, they get the calls, they get the calls and they get the no calls. It is what it is. We've got to factor that in it's sports there's variance. 

01:02:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I truly believe in the it'll balance out over time theory. You are the it'll balance out over time theory you. You are going to bet on games where there's obviously a shit coaching decision, shitty call something that happens. That's going to frustrate you. But there's also going to be the games which everyone forgets about, where the other coach that you bet against is going to make a shit coaching decision exactly, you know. 

01:03:06 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
But that's why betting is amazing is you can factor these in and you can back it and win money, even if it's like, oh, the chiefs get all the flags, like they get all the calls, you can bet on that and factor that in if you think it's a thing there. You know what? You know? I've loved, actually, dave mason um on twitter. He's been, uh, he's been tweeting the same response, which is like an incredible response. 

01:03:26
Anytime people say so, people keep telling him like this we're in Canada, by the way but people say, like this US election is fixed, like Trump, kamala, like it's, and it's both sides, by the way. So people will be like this is fixed, like for sure, for sure, kamala is going to steal this election, it's going to be fake. And then he literally will just tweet the same response and he'll be like, wow, incredible, if it's fixed, you could make a free 50 000 on the fixed side. And then he posts a link to the bet and then guys will be like, no way, zero percent chance, trump loses this election, like it's fixed. And then he'll be like, wow, incredible, why not just bet 55 000 for 50 000 on the rigged side? You, you can make a clean 50,000. I love that. 

01:04:08
He keeps responding to that and it's actually amazing. It's kind of like life If there's something where you can put your money where your mouth is, then that's going to be probably the more efficient line than if it's something where you're like oh yeah, I could build that F1 car, I can but there's no money on the table. 

01:04:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know I can, but there's no money on the table. Here we go, but there's no money on the table. I don't like. I don't like this. I we need to drop this. That's I actually. It is a staple. 

01:04:31 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It's like one someone's like he can't even build that lego f1 car. Bro, I can obviously build the lego f1 car I would. 

01:04:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would bet any amount of money that johnny can build the lego f1 car that no, anyone could build that. 

01:04:43 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
Yeah, no, no doubt we ought to do like a stream to do this. 

01:04:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
To do the Lego one. 

01:04:49 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
No, like a model car or something Like. Put that together. 

01:04:52 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
That's just a waste of time, but I can obviously build that. That's not even a feat. 

01:04:56 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
Then we ought to get money on it. Lines up somewhere, something. 

01:05:00 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I'd potentially be willing to do it if we did like some sort of bet where we have a gold card or something. No, if we did a bet where we bet on the speed of me uh, building that lego f1 car, I could potentially be interested in that, like the speed of it, but we're not gonna bet yeah, can I bet it or not? No one, who's gonna? 

01:05:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
possibly bet that I wouldn't build that? No, of course, dude, it's lego, exactly. It's like I saw that tweet, I was like, yeah, like okay, I get, it's a joke for sure. But yeah, I guess we could do like a live watch along over under and take some like side bets ourselves. 

01:05:31 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
What is a reasonable time? 

01:05:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'd have to see the amount of pieces. 

01:05:34 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I need to know how many pieces. 

01:05:35 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
I want to build it out myself first, not long, and then I'll tell you a reasonable time. Does it drive? 

01:05:42 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
Is that one of he's going to? 

01:05:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
drive it around the office. 

01:05:45 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
No, no, no, no. Like there's the ones that you can like, just turn on, and it has like a little remote that comes with it. It just goes like forwards and backwards or whatever. How big is this thing? 

01:05:52 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I don't know, let me build it. If we build it, we can put it here in the studio. 

01:05:57 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
Yeah, let's do some research. 

01:05:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll do some research into this. 

01:06:08 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
It'll come out of a wagering budget loser also has to pay for the, the car that'll be in the bet. 

01:06:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, that's a good bet. That's a good bet. We can set up all sorts of side bets on this oh, you have to live stream this. 

01:06:16 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
I'm sorry you're gonna have to do it. 

01:06:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think you probably get odds for this on a couple places where rob used to consult for yeah, we wouldn't be able to put in the regulated space just because there'd be too much accusations of match fixing involved. But offshore for sure we could get odds up, we get it in the new studio Like if we had actually like well over under time makes sense, but then also like blocks of times at different odds as well. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

01:06:43 - Zack Phillips (Interviewer)
You can get all sorts of-. 

01:06:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Alternate lines. You can get all sorts of options. We can get all sorts of Alternate lines. 

01:06:46 - Johnny from Betstamp (Co-host)
You can get all sorts of options. 

01:06:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We can get all sorts of options. If you like this idea, by the way, smash that like button down below. We need to get the likes up on the show. Every other show at the Hammer here, tons of likes. Kanish is like messaging me on the side oh, look at the amount of likes I got for Hit the Books. Smash that like button. Hear that guy talk anymore about the amount of likes on his show relative to us. Circles off. If you're not subscribed here and 65% of you watching are not subscribed, hit that subscribe button down below. It helps us grow our content, helps us get visibility, and then we can do this forever. You want shows on a weekly basis, more content coming down the pipeline as well. Make sure you are subscribed here. We are back next week. We're continuing this Q&A. There's a ton more to get to. Hope you enjoyed this episode. Peace out. Good luck with your bets this week.