00:00 - So Money Sports (Guest)
So not only have I lost on a 4th and 18, not only have I lost on a Statue of Liberty, play the f***ing guy proposes. 

00:09 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Come on, let's go. 

00:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You think I'm going to come on here and put one of the Aussies in the elite tier. I'd vote for Rob of 25,000. I wouldn't vote for you. I can basically just cheat and get the same bets that they're getting. It's weird because you can also pay your bills at the same place where you bet. I mean, you're a short guy, what? 

00:32 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
This guy talks a lot of trash. He's talked a lot of trash about me, Rob, a lot of people in the community, but he's refusing to show his face. 

00:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Clouting yourself as a pretty good NFL gambler. I thought you were an idiot. Take testing, testing. I'm a cuck. One, two, three, four. 

00:45 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Aussies going head to head with the Aussies. That's what I grew up for and I said get him Kirk, and they call me a mean-spirited name. 

00:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't hang out with them. The Toronto Maple Leafs at 14-1 are staring me dead in the face. I'm already getting you know a lot of early. This could be the best Circles Off episode that's ever been done. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 177, right here, part of the Hammer Betting Network and presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. I'm Rob Pizzola, joined again this week by Kirk Evans. How's it going? 

01:19 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Doing well, doing well. Nba season starting out Yep, exciting times. 

01:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Three and a half weeks to the Aras tour in Toronto. I need to get a ticket. You don't have tickets. I haven't bought them yet. There's like six shows, right, or something like that, something absurd. I think it's five or six. Yeah, what is the cheapest price point on those tickets? Like a few dimes. 

01:41 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
No, no, no, no. I think you could get in for like 1500. It's not that far off. Well, a few dimes is three. A few dimes is like three or four. 

01:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Is three yeah, three plus Okay. Should have said a couple. You're right, it's tough man, it's worth it. 

02:00 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Cheapest price I see right now. No, I'm not going to say where these are $2,400 to sit in the upper bowl is on one of the apps right now that generally has cheaper prices on these. That's pretty insane Different. 

02:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean this just speaks to my age and who I listen to. But I got first row tickets to Metallica when they're here for both shows, the Thursday and the Saturday for $1,200 for both. Yeah, taylor Swift, no, no, it's much larger, don't get me wrong, but it's hard for me. I was going to say much better. 

02:36 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Let's not get into that. 

02:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen to each their own. Music is subjective and most of the world would agree with you, so you definitely have the popularity going for you. It's just really I would like to experience it. This sounds like really weird coming from a middle-aged man. I'd like to experience it because so many people are crying at shows. It's like life-changing experience. I would, but it's just not my music and I just can't listen. I can afford the ticket, but I just can't justify the ticket price. 

03:03 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
That's fair. Yeah, I can afford the ticket, but I just can't justify the ticket price. That's fair. Yeah, I've watched the concert a bunch of times, honestly, like they have it on Prime Video but I just feel like me being there, I'd feel a little out of place, yeah, but I'm still heavily considering it. Why out of place? Like it's going to be all like 15-year-old girls and then me and also also I'm not like much of a rah-rah yelling, you know. 

03:33
I feel like I like watching it on video because I can see how good it is, but I'm not like I'd be a little overwhelmed in there. 

03:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can see that zach, you're not going no no, I'm not going, I just can't. 

03:41 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
I also can't justify the price of it. That is like Like we're ordering. 

03:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is not like. You can get, like standing room, only Super Bowl tickets for that price. 

03:53 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Yeah, like the thing is for me, I would much rather just spend that on something else. 

03:58 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah. 

03:59 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Think about the experience that you can have. I could just go away for seven days. 

04:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can rip an all-inc inclusive in Mexico for no problem. For less, yeah, a hundred percent yeah. Or you go to a high end resort or something like that. 

04:10 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Yeah, like that's more valuable to me. I'm with you. I don't want to slander. 

04:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Taylor Swift. I actually, you know listen. 

04:17 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
No, I think she's good. 

04:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Just saying it's coming up. I know you're a big swifty. I also know you're a big fan of circle back, but you're you're upset that you haven't been invited on the show yet yeah, how much do you want me to talk on twitter before I get the invite? 

04:30 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
we'll get you, but I need kanisha on there too well, here's the thing. 

04:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Kanish will be on. We're going to work on getting him in person for one of these. We're going to switch up the cast going forwards as well, make like rotate a little bit more, but it's got to be in person. I'm very adamant that it has to be in. It just doesn't have the same vibe if someone's on screen trying to mingle and interject on a lot of these things. Um, but yeah, we'll get you in there because you you stir it up. You'd be a good person for the show. Exactly. I disagree with you on most of the things that makes it even better 100, it would be great. 

05:07 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
It would be great we got to do that at some point yeah, that's the kind of show I think works really well in person, because you can argue. I would say that loosely not, you're not arguing with each other, but argue points more collaboratively, conversationally, like jumping in instead of somebody. It's harder to do, virtually for sure, if you missed, this week's episode. 

05:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can check it out right here Circles Off channel, tuesdays 8 am. Go live every single week Circle Back weekend review of Gambling Twitter. Before we get to our guest interview this week, I do want to remind you Pinnacle's the world's sharpest sportsbook available to bettors in Canada. We often preach line shopping here on Circles Off. It's one of the most critical aspects of sports betting. I would never consider betting without Pinnacle as one of my sportsbooks because of their everyday competitive odds. Bet smart, bet Pinnacle, your trusted sportsbook for the past 25 years. Check out Pinnaclecom forward slash hammer. You must be 19 plus. Available in ontario, not available in the us. And, as always, please play responsibly. Our guest on circles off this week is a professional better specializing in hockey. Amongst other things, he's also one of the ogs of gambling twitter, one of my first follows. I remember it very vividly. He's part of our team over at Edgework on YouTube, which is the hockey division of the Hammer Betting Network. You can follow him on Twitter at SoMoneySports. Somoney joins us on Circles Off. How's it going? 

06:38 - So Money Sports (Guest)
I'm good. I'm good guys. I'm excited to get going. 

06:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, I'm excited for this one as well. Um, we are friends outside of this and colleagues, but for a long time you were an enigma in the space for me. Uh, you were this guy that didn't really talk anything, just posted pics in gambling twitter and the market used to steam on those hockey pics. I remember them very vividly. It would just be the the pick dot dot dot, good luck. I actually stole that for maybe a year as well and started using it myself and this guy he didn't call me out or anything, but I was doing that for a bit. Can you share the story behind how you got started in sports betting and your journey into becoming so Money Sports? 

07:22 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, absolutely so. My journey started back in 1994 with the Canucks playing the New York Rangers in the Stanley Cup final. Did you really think you would have a conversation with me without me bringing up the Canucks 94 run. 

07:38
Yeah, but seriously, that is actually where it started. I was a kid, that was my first cup run and I just couldn't fathom any situation where the Canucks were going to lose. They were going to win the Stanley Cup. It was fait accompli in my head. It just wasn't going to go any other way. I remember vividly, 1.6 seconds left game seven, offensive zone faceoff, trevor Linney taking the draw, and I'm sitting there with my juice box. I was 10 years old, sitting there with my juice box. Remember those Capri Suns. 

08:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do. 

08:13 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Love a Capri Sun. 

08:14 - So Money Sports (Guest)
I'm sitting there and I had no doubt that the Canucks were going to win this faceoff Somehow. It was somehow going to go in. They were going to tie the game, we were going to tie the game, we're going to go into overtime, and then it didn't happen, right. So that was devastating and I just I couldn't understand and it just I just didn't know how that was even possible. So then I obviously didn't know at that time what was in my 10-year-old head, what was going to be happening next. But years later I can look back and I can articulate. It started becoming a nagging question to me that why was it that the Canucks lost and why was I so confident in this team in, in, in this team winning right? So you, you go through the years in. 

09:04
In my teenage years I started betting like most people do in the government lotteries, parlay cars, started losing on those, and that was my education, right. It was a lot of money for me at that time because I had a part-time job at a grocery store and we had the kiosk right right in the grocery store. So like, on my breaks I would go put in the beds, right, um, and then, like I would just blow all my paychecks there, right. And then, um, so it wasn't a lot of money looking back now, but back then it was a lot of money for, and so, like that was my dog, my education, and, and then, as I was finishing, finishing university, I got a bit, I got a break. There was a major offshore sports book that had their customer service here in Vancouver. 

09:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Rob, you know who I'm talking about yeah, I do, I do yeah. 

09:59 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, so they had the customer service here in Vancouver and I started just answering calls. Customer service calls people complaining about dumb shit or like giving them like. 

10:12
Western Union, like random names from the Philippines to go make their deposits through Western Union. And then I got moved to the sports department. Now, what happened there was that I started getting access to the flow of money coming in, right, and then it became I just became obsessed with it that, like, how is this money coming in? When is it coming in? Why is it coming in? Who is betting it? And then I started profiling individual bettors at this sports book, right, like you have, I've got 95% of guys who are, or women, I don't know right, who are like losing bettors. And then there's this group of people that win significantly, and so I'm looking at them. I'm just everything I do at work, like it's I'm, I'm, I'm obsessed with that. Now I can tell the story now because, like, what are they going to fire me now? 

11:10
But what I used to do is during like college NFL a lot too, but like especially during the college football, cause the games would like like overlap, right, you had your 9amific big 10 game, and then you're like 12 30 sec game, and then you're like nighttime primetime games, right. So, um, so, like those games both like would like overlap. And once a game is done, then the calls will start coming in, right, that, like my game's not settled, or you settled this wrong, or like I want a refund on this or that, right. So what I used to do is I actually shut my phone off, right. So, like, like, all these people are in the queue, but my phone is off because I'm watching the screen, right, and I'm watching the people who are betting, I'm watching the money coming in when it's coming in. And then I started comparing it to like to like other books right, pinnacle at that time. 

12:02
Right, that was like, um, like you wanted to be on the side of pinnacle at that time. Right, so then, like. And then I started noticing patterns, right, that, like, these guys are just betting here when pinnacle is moving, like that's all they're doing, right, so then, um, that's, uh, so I was, I was doing that. And then, like I, obviously I started becoming better once I started, I started picking up on those patterns and then I started giving out plays throughout the office and then, just one time, one of my buddies at work was like man, you're so money. 

12:38 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
And I was sitting there I was like yeah, fuck, I am. 

12:43 - So Money Sports (Guest)
That's how the name started. It's just randomly from that guy. 

12:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He was like you're so money, wow. That's actually such a good origin story because you're self-educated in a sense, and no one ever told you what to look for. You were just analyzing data and patterns in real time and basically figured out how the betting market works. I wish I was that savvy. It wasn't. You know, that was not my experience whatsoever, but it's an interesting one. 

13:10 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, well, it's a smart one, for sure, and obviously benefits to be at a book. But yeah, that's a great origin story. I like you being as a starting, as you as a 10-year-old watching the Canucks. 

13:22 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, it's a funny story know, it still bugs me to this day like I can't uh until this team actually wins a cup. It's not something I'm ever going to get over so from there there's some. 

13:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's a gap to you posting picks on Twitter. In the early going, I should note, listen. I mean when I first started following you on Twitter. I, the early going, I should note, listen. I mean when I first started following you on Twitter, I was probably still a losing better, at the time I didn't understand market dynamics. It wasn't until like a few years later. I actually remember it was Todd Furman who was talking to me and he's like you know this guy's Canadian as well. Do you know anything about this? So money guy. I'm like well, what you know? Is he a winner? He's like well, listen, like as soon as this guy posts his picks, the market steams every single time he posts. Was that you steaming the market or was that other people who were following? 

14:14 - So Money Sports (Guest)
you. So when I first started, I had the knowledge in terms of what to bet, right, but it was a very elementary knowledge still at that point, right, and then I would bet the plays and the books I would bet at, they would move right. But then when I would post it, it then the whole market would move right. So I think that there was um, there was a combination of both and um, I didn't understand it at that time, right. So, um, so, like, I would just post and like, my whole purpose was to just post and just have fun and like and like, like, like I got a I, I, I got the thrill of like being the man at, like the office, right, and I wanted that to like translate into like a public sphere, right, so, and that like. Looking back, I can honestly say that that's what it was about. Like, I liked being the man and I liked having, and it was a source of pride for me that every time I post something like like things like this will just move right, and like, yeah, that that made me feel good at the time, right, but then it became an impediment, right. So, like, as I, as I started scaling, it just wasn't feasible anymore because I would bet it. But then I mean mean, obviously you get like limited or like you have to start betting at like other places, in terms it, if you want to bet more, so then. Um, so then you get partners that bet for you. 

15:54
Now the problem became is that so I've bet it, I've got my number, I need to give it to my partners. They bet it, they get their numbers, and by the time I'm ready to post, the number's gone, right, and if it's not gone, that's a problem too, because now the market has rejected what I've bet. So now is this still a good play or not, right? So, um, and then that was that was the issue that I was running into, because I remember I, I went on and, and again, I didn't fully understand that at that time and then, um, and then I went on this like terrible streak where the plays I'm betting that I'm not posting are all winning, yeah, and the plays that I'm posting are losing because I'm giving you guys bad plays, right. And then that's when it clicked to me that, like you know what, like I I'm giving out bad information, right, like I'm giving out plays that are already rejected in the market, right, so, so, so, so that had to change. 

16:49
And then, um, I was still posting here and there, um, and then, um, again, I just, I just scale up, like I send the plays to the movers, um, they get the play down, the whole market moves, and now I've got nothing to do, right. So, like, um, it like, yeah, my Twitter account has evolved, or or, I guess, devolved, into a state now where, like I just, I can't provide any actionable information because it's just not there. Like I'll, I can tell you the numbers I bet at, but like it's not going to do you any good. 

17:21 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, and you mentioned that when you were working for a sports book, you were essentially looking at pin. But obviously, by the time you're posting plays, you're originating these plays. What was that development like from seeing okay, these sharps are on, uh, this line, I'm gonna bet it as well to okay, I'm originating my own hockey lines lines. 

17:44 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, so that's been a long process and, like, I'm still evolving with that. So, like, it ended up happening that like it started with my like obsessive curiosity of like, why are teams winning? Right, like, it's just not good enough to say that this team won by a score of 4-3, right, because I'm watching the game and like, and I can tell you that this team should not have won 4-3. So now I want to go back and see why is this happening. I started looking at different stats, trying to find correlation between this stuff. Is there something to winning a faceoff in the offensive zone? Is there shots? Then it became more evolved like there's shot suppression, there's like, there's like, there's a different like expected goals back then. Right, so, like, there's like, there's like different elements that go into these things. 

18:37
And then I started partnering with people that, like, I've met through Twitter, which it's been like amazing for me, right so, and then you develop relationships where, like, I don't have necessarily the strongest stats background, but I'm a very resourceful person, right. So, like, I can forge relationships where people were like they can help me develop my initial models, which they did to get to a certain level, and I can help them with like, with like their bedding and their like and their like. Holistic development, right. So that's the, that's the way that it is, and and and, even at this point, right, like I've got, I've got models that I can't really tell you in terms of like, like the intricacies behind it. I can't really tell you in terms of like, the intricacies behind it. I can tell you, like, the basic concept of like what is in my head and like what I want to articulate within the model, and then the X's and O's get done by people that are way more educated in that field than I am. 

19:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's really interesting. I want you to walk us through a day in the life of betting hockey for so money. So how early does that start? Are you looking at overnight markets? Are you starting to price in injuries before you go to sleep for the next day? Do you wake up to an automated price that's been created on every game, or are you individually handicapping them yourself? Walk us through a full betting day on the NHL for you. 

20:05 - So Money Sports (Guest)
So it starts the night before I've got. I have a like in my model. I like list out like who I'm projecting to be starting, minutes allocation and like injuries. Like I would like sim someone at like I know this guy is not fully healthy so I'm not going to send him at like 100%, it's going to be 50% or it's gonna be 75%, right, and then and then so I go through the lineup. I make notes of like what I'm looking for in the morning, right, in terms of like any like injury news that can pop up. Right, or like there's any doubtful or questionable or day to day statuses, statuses, right. So like I've got, I've got all those notes. Wake up in the morning five o'clock I'm usually up five, five thirty, right, and then, um, so like this is like pacific time, right, so like that's the. 

20:53
That's the problem with being on the west coast in the mornings I wish I was on the east coast, and at night I'm like totally fine with being on the west coast, right? But um, I I to be up at five, five thirty and then so I've got the prices from the night before and then obviously watch, the, watch the market move. When the, when the limits first first go up, I have a general idea in terms of where, the where the market's going to go anyways, based on just just the, just the market, who they like and who they dislike at any given time, right? I know, rob, you remember there was a time when the Penguins would keep getting steamed every morning last year, right? So I know when I wake up I should expect to see Penguins money coming in. So that's not something that's going to phase me right. 

21:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you bet the sport every day, you develop an intuition for which teams the market will constantly back. Um, you probably know the same thing in nba I think the dallas mavericks last year I could be wrong. There was like a long run of them getting either better, faded I think that was two years ago after kairi came. 

22:00 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, they kept getting bad and kept losing. So you develop that intuition for sure yeah, and like and like. 

22:05 - So Money Sports (Guest)
The problem is that, like I was high on the penguins as well, so like I wanted to beat the money and like I would, and then like they'd lose anyways, right, like that was great, um, but then, um, yeah. So then the morning skates um, about seven, seven thirty, uh, for like the four o'clock games, and then like about nine, nine, thirty for the five o'clock games, and then like about 9, 9.30 for the 5 o'clock and 10 o'clock for, like the nighttime games. Right, so, like, monitor the morning skates, who's the goalie off first? It's depending on the coach. You've got to be careful sometimes, but, like, most of the time, the first goalie off is the one that's going to start. If I've done my work correctly the night before, I should. That shouldn't surprise me of like who the starting goal is, is, is going to be, and then and now, I've already simmed it with that goaltender, right, so, um, wherever the market reacts, then I know if it's like an over reaction or under reaction, based on the numbers I've already made. Right. 

23:03
And then, and then you have coaches, press conference. Like, sometimes I have it after morning skate, sometimes I have it later in the evening. Then I'm, I'm on, I'm on top of that. In between all that, I'm getting the kids like breakfast ready and getting them off to school and stuff, right. And it's like usually there's a lull in the day, right, um, that is when I can do like just my own thing or like just sleep or like like whatever I want to do, right, um, do my other stuff right. 

23:33
But um, then, um, then the um warm-ups right. So I've got to be on top on top of the warm-ups in case any last minute surprises or like, if I'm really 50, 50 on a on a on a goaltending situation, I'll know at warm-ups that, like who I need to like put into like 100 in the sim, right, and then, and then you resim it and then you're, and then you're ready to go and then also like. One thing to mention too is that I'm big on like on, like the, on the qualitative aspect as well, right, so, like um models, huge, right. But I do feel confident that, like um, I can have a unbiased subjective opinion on like reading between the coaches, lines right, so like there's a code, speak right. And then, when they talk, right, just like there's elements to that that can be manifested into the line, and that's something that I am big on. 

24:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's really interesting, especially the coach speaks part Sport to sport. I think that's like a slightly hidden edge. I know Hitman, who's a big NFL props better. A lot of his edge on props is not from the actual modeling or simulations. It's through coach speak, watching press conferences and picking up on like little tidbits that might be said which he can then blindly bet. I think that's very accurate in the NHL if you pay attention to what a lot of coaches say as well. Out of curiosity, you're on edge work three days a week, 10.30 am Eastern time, so 7.30 Pacific. It's not the best time in the world for us to be live because there's morning skates happening. How do you handle that when you're doing content while those are happening in the background? Do you manage both or do you focus on on the content and just get back to it afterwards? 

25:30 - So Money Sports (Guest)
it's so funny because, like I should show you some of the comments I get sometimes and like how much shit I get from like viewers, like just privately that like are you even here, right? Like it's just like there's like many times where like I'm like this right and then like and like I'm like I'm like this right and then like I'm just like nodding or like talking and stuff, because like or like I have my screen set up while I'm like talking Because I'm watching everything that's going on right, and so like I'm able to do both right, and then like if I see something, and like we have to remember too that the brunt of my numbers work is already done at this point, right. 

26:06
It's just, I just need to figure out that, like, if there's any like last-minute stuff and like if the market is moving a certain way, right, and then there's many times where I'm on air but I'm like sending out the play and like I'm telling the viewers that, like, this is what I'm betting it is going to move the viewers, that, like this is what I'm betting it is going to move right, so like, and I'm sending it out right now, so like, if it's real time, like that I feel okay because everybody has an opportunity to like to like get in right, like like I can't like, like I mentioned earlier, like like say afterwards what I've bet right. But if it's real time to like, yeah, we can all bet together. 

26:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Then yeah, one of the reasons that that we do the show at that time. For those that don't know well, there's two reasons. But first and foremost we do want to get it out of the way earlier in the morning because as a content network, it gives us a better chance to pick up views over the course of the day. We could do the show in the afternoon when all this stuff is settled, but by that time there are less edges because the market's been bent into place in a lot of these situations and also we don't have those extra three hours to generate viewership. But also, by being on air at that time, we do actually catch the morning skates as they're happening and can react to lineup changes in real time, which I think is actually pretty interesting to hear people discuss that in real time as it's happening versus, you know, dealing with information that's already been priced into the market. 

27:29 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, absolutely, that makes sense. It's probably the best way for you to give lines that the viewers could get. 

27:36 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, and it's really educational as well, right, because like it's not only like me like talking about real time what I'm looking at, but like it's very interactive, like we've got like viewers in the chat that time what I'm looking at, but like it's very interactive, like we've got like viewers in the chat that like if I'm missing something, like I'm in the middle of talking and I'm missing something that's happening of like with like a starting gold bender, like, like, like they'll put it in the chat and like which is which is incredibly helpful as well, right yep, yes, your your version of underdog fantasy in the form of live chat at the same time. 

28:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, of the viewers, yeah. 

28:06 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
So you mentioned your kind of typical day, but I don't think you mentioned when you're actually typically getting into the market, Like when are you? Okay, we are betting this. Is it the overnights? Is it after morning skate, pre-morning skate, or just all throughout the day? 

28:28 - So Money Sports (Guest)
all, all throughout the day. I'm trying to think there's not, um. So the majority of the bets would be either during morning skate or right after morning skate, right, that's, that's. That's where the majority of the best would be, because at that point, um, the the limits are up and I'm very confident now about, for the most part, about who's going to be in the lineup. 

28:46
Sometimes it drags on during the day that I'm waiting on something, but I just can't bet it because the team is playing at like seven o'clock at night. They haven't had their morning skate yet, right, or or like I know the Habs have their press conference at like at like 2 pm Pacific time, a lot of times Right, so, like, and like that's when they'll like announce their goalie, right, um, so, um. So in those situations it like drags on throughout the day, which is kind of annoying for me because like I don't like things dragging on like that, so like I'm like constantly monitoring it and like um and and then warm up sometimes too right, if I don't know who's going to be the goalie and like I don't feel confident in my like, in my guess of who's going to be the goalie, then that's not something I can bet at that time, right? So then, like sometimes, I'll bet like a half an hour before the game, when, like the, when the warms are happening. 

29:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's interesting because for us I'm willing to go earlier on guesswork, because the mark, at least in the last few years, maybe last three years, I would say the market is much more competitive than it used to be. Uh, back in the day, this is not an exaggeration, but I could wake up in the morning and I would have a bet on every single NHL game because the overnight prices were barely touched. It wasn't that competitive. Now it's way harder and there's also so much competition. So so money talks about like profiling other groups. But you might notice that you're consistently getting order flow on a certain team, regular, regularly, and it's like well, I like that team too. Now I'm gonna, you know, over time I'm just gonna have to beat these guys to market and then you can obviously get screwed on goalie situations, injuries, but it sounds like so money. You, you would rather wait for as much information to become available than to take an early stance on a game for the most part these days. 

30:44 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, yeah, because, um, there's just so much market movement in like the, in, in, in like the mornings now, that, like I could get in front of it and like and and like sometimes I do um it just it just depends on the team and like the end of the situation. 

30:59
Right, so, like, like I alluded to the penguins last year, right, like it didn't matter what was happening. I can decide later on, um, what I want to do with that position. Right, like I can, I can give it back or I can keep it with, like a, with, with with like a good number, like, like in those kind of situations it doesn't matter, it's going to get steamed, right, um. And then there's like other situations where, um, and and it also depends on like the, on like the model number and my confidence as well right, like, if, if I feel good that, like that, like, regardless of who this goaltender is going to be, I know that the market is going to move this way Then I'm going to get in front of it. Right, so, like it's, it's very situation dependent. 

31:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What percentage of you, of your plays, would you say, are news based versus? You already have your number and you know you just see an edge in the market with no additional news. What's? What's that split like? 

31:58 - So Money Sports (Guest)
I would say about 70 percent is based on my number okay um 30 news based. 

32:08
But um, that is changing a bit as well. If you asked me this a couple of years ago, I would have told you 85% of my number, right? The reason why it's changing is that what I've found is that there's not only is there more competition in the marketplace, there's the same kind of competition right in terms of like. We're all looking at the same thing. We all have a pretty good understanding of what are the nonsense stats in the marketplace, what we should be looking for, and so we're all kind of directionally the same way, right. So now there has to be a differentiation right between if, like. Everybody's model is kind of like, like, spitting out the same direction. How are you going to differentiate yourself, right, so like. 

33:01
That's where um in terms of um, in terms of news, like, I've got like a pretty good infrastructure in terms of like what is in terms of getting on top of the news as well as being able to like um, have have people in place who are able to action that for me very, very quickly, right. So like, if, like um. If there's john portorella's like whatever he says and like um like I I use him as an example because he's very open yeah right and um, so like there's. 

33:31
There's like, if you listen to him, there's things that he says that you can absolutely take at face value. Right and so like, if you're hearing that and I know that, um, if I were to input that information into my model, I'm going to get an edge anyways. Um, instead of doing that, I would skip that step altogether and just just just send it out Like this is the play I want, and then that can be actioned within a couple of minutes. 

33:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What do you do with bet sizing on stuff like that? Because at that point you're just estimating your edge, right. I mean, do you flat bet? Is it the same units across all? Do you go harder on bigger edges? And, specifically when there's news-based information, you basically just bet. You know as much as you can in those situations and, and like a lot of times, you just don't have the option of you know, plugging in the Kelly formula and saying, yeah, I want to bet this much, right. 

34:24 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, so I I don't use the Kelly formula at all, it's not that I'm like opposed to it or anything Like I, just just I just don't have the time and like I can't, I can't calculate that in my head, right, so, like, like, what am I going to do is sit there trying to calculate something, or like when, like the numbers about to move right, so, um, in those in, in those situations, um, I've I've got like, depending on the movers, I've got like a basic amount that, like I want filled right, um, and then like, if there's, I know I'm gonna get that filled right Now, once I send it out, I know I'm getting that bet in. 

34:58
Now. If, like there's like things that are moving slowly or like I want heavier on this, like I can go in myself manually and bet those, I can bet those to like accounts. Or, if I have time, like I can let the movers know that like I want bigger, like I can let the movers know that, like I want bigger on this right, and then, like I know, I'm going to get my base and then, depending on what they can do for me, like they'll like, do, like whatever. So, like I don't, so like I will bet bigger when, like, the edge calls for it, or like, sometimes, like I won't send to the movers at all because it's a it's, it's a smaller edge, and like and like, and like. Depending on the timing, I'll just take care of it myself interesting, interesting um go ahead. 

35:40 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
You mentioned that you know the market and Rob said the same thing. The market's gone more competitive. Has that led you to to start taking, you know, props or other sports or anything like that? 

35:51 - So Money Sports (Guest)
absolutely, yeah, so, um, um, just like it's. It's. It's funny because, like the edgework guys bet a lot of props too, right, so, like and like. Before, like up to a couple years ago, um, like I had never bet a goal scorer prop, like ever, right, um, now I'm starting like looking at that more and like, um, they just like. 

36:10
Sometimes I listen to like rob when he's on and like he. I listen to like Rob when he's on and like he's like talking about like, why he's betting a certain score. Right To like to like score a goal. Well, his shooting percentage, like career shooting percentage, compared to what he is now, is this there's like a difference there. The expected shooting percentage, right, so, like. 

36:29
Those are the kinds of things that, like I'm thinking about now in terms of like, that's always in the model, but now, like, translating that into like, the like, the individual market for that player, is something that I've never done. Right, so, and like and and. At the props limits, like, they're not, they're, they're fine, right, like, if you have access across like, like a, like a, like a bunch of books, it's not like in the past where, like, you're only getting down like a little bit at like Pinnacle or something right, or like, if you wanted to bet somewhere else, you're getting cut off right. So, like you have access to like a lot of different things now. So, yeah, that is something like the props markets that, like I have been doing a lot more of. 

37:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Have you ever given out a uh, you know, like a big minus prop on on the like? I'm looking today and I'm just I'm just my model for Tampa Bay Toronto. I have Nicholas Paul not to score a goal minus 467 at pinnacle right now. Fair value would be like minus 600 on that. Do Do you ever go into the Fezzik route of you know the heavily juiced favorites? Because I actually think this is a very good market to attack. In the NHL, most people want to bet an outcome to happen and they get scared off by these types of prices. Similarly, in the NFL, I bet not to score a touchdown. A lot at at big prices. Curious if you ever gone down that path not yet. 

37:57 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Um, I do, I, I do understand, like the um, like the, like, the reasoning behind it. I I mean, like that's why, like people, like betting overs, right, like you want you, you want something to happen, right, so, um, I'm not there yet in my, in my, in my development of my props, but maybe I'll get there one day. But I'm not there yet. 

38:19 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Also just to throw this out there because people can go back and check the chat. Today did suggest Nick Paul anytime goal Every time that we've ignored it and said, no, we're not doing that they've scored. We ignored it today, so it's a lock. It's a lock, rob saying no goal. It's a lock. 

38:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm just saying it's minus 467 pin. Right now I price it at like minus 600. Some people wouldn't play those. I play a lot of those I'll probably have. I mean, there's not that many games tonight, right? What's going on tonight? 

38:50 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
It's the only only one. 

38:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's the only game right, yeah, I was looking at the screen right now, so, uh, I won't have that many, but some nights I have some incredible sweats on on some of these. It's actually fun. It's actually really fun that. 

39:02 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
That was what I was about to say. I'd way rather bet. Uh, I'd have much more fun betting a no goal prop than a goal prop, because, fine, maybe they score and that's a really fun moment. But I like having the. You're winning most of the time, so you're enjoying the bet for way longer. It's like last touchdown. I've started putting that in. You're always sweating the last touchdown. That bet's never dead until the game's over. 

39:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I would say I don't think a lot of people will find the no goal to. It's a fun bet. 

39:33
It's funny Johnny's not here. He's still away but he'll be back next week. But he infamously in a Leafs Lightning it's funny, leafs and Lightning are playing on the day we're recording this but in a Leafs Lightning playoff series he was at Circa and Jeff Benson is really good to the guys there and he hooked Johnny up with some stuff really good to the guys there and you know, he hooked Johnny up with some stuff and Johnny's like, yeah, you know, I'm gonna throw down a couple dimes on on something just to give him some action. And he threw down a couple grand on Stephen Stamkos not to score against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the game that they played. By the time he walked from the sports book to stadium swim, stephen Stamkos had already scored and he had lost his $2,000 bet on that one. So he loves to tell that story. It's a funny one. But, yeah, definitely dangerous markets. So, mani, I know you bet other sports as well. Hockey is definitely more of a niche sport compared to football or basketball. What makes NHL betting unique in your view? 

40:30 - So Money Sports (Guest)
So the size of the market itself, I think, lends itself to more edges and the reaction to the news, right. 

40:39
So in the past there would be a lot more time elapsed between a news worthy or actionable event happening and, like you, you from that time to like a change in the marketplace. 

40:59
Right, over the years that time has has shrunk considerably, but it's still more than a starting quarterback going down in the NFL or like or like a player in, like the, in like NBA or whatever Right that is reflected in the nfl, or like or like a player in, like the, in like nba or whatever right, um, that is reflected in the market immediately. 

41:18
But it's also a different kind of impact as well. Right, like a quarterback in the in like football, is worth a lot more than a start. Then then not all but most starting goaltenders in the nhl, right so like um, but in the nhl, in the nhl marketplace, you still see that overreaction to the backup goaltender. Right so um, because of the size of the market and um and just the way that the, that the, that the news flows between these markets. There's still edges in the nhl where, like you, can, you, can, you can get in front of the news where, like in in football, if you're not in front of the screen and a quarterback goes down, you're not going to get that bet in at like the price that you should be getting it in yeah interesting. 

42:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, in hockey, are there any specific angles or trends that you look for when betting nhl games? Let's actually start with do you think there is a place for using trends in any capacity in hockey? 

42:27 - So Money Sports (Guest)
so my thought process has evolved over the years, right, right, like, I've become more open-minded to it. Yep, there is a place if it makes sense, right, so, like, if you're telling me that, like, a Western Conference team hasn't won in an East Stadium or an East Arena in like X number of years, okay, great, that looks nice, right, but we've had unbalanced schedules, we've had a pandemic, we've had shortened seasons, right, so how many games have been played in those X number of years that you're citing? Beyond that, who cares what happened eight years ago? Same teams, right, so I think that stuff like that that I don't really care about, right? Um, but if there's something logical, right like, this team always starts slowly in, like, in in like a game, right, or? 

43:24
Or like a couple years ago, the canucks are always blowing leads, right, yes, they are blowing leads. The reason is because their defense sucks and they're, like, overextending their minutes on their defense, right, so, yes, they are going to blow leads, right, and so that's a very logical inference. Or, like how many? Like applying this to like the NFL, right, like, how many games has it been since the Eagles have scored in the first quarter? Right, so, like there's, you can apply that to like okay, so maybe there's a scripting issue here with Nick Sirianni, right, like he's getting out-scripted, right. And then like, as the game goes on, maybe like it's getting better, right, so like, there's things you can like, quantify at that point and you can make a logical inference. 

44:10 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
But like a team that's like five and oh, on tuesdays, like I think, like it doesn't make any sense yeah, I like to delineate this as trends with a, with a z at the end versus just normal trends, like everything's a trend, like if a team, let's say in hockey, you know, for 10 straight games, uh changes their D structure and out shoots their opponent, you know that's a trend. Obviously that's going to be priced into the market. But, like you said, if they're 6-0 on Tuesdays, when it's $1 hot dogs at the stadium, maybe that matters, but probably not. 

44:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, yeah, I like to delineate that trends versus trends and it's also like trends versus angles are a little bit different as well. Like you know, in sports you can often find an angle that is actually not priced into the market but then does become priced into the market. My favorite example in hockey, I think, would be the father, son or mother son road trips that they take, which is like a motivational angle. It's like I don't wanna, I'm gonna play a hundred percent in front of my mother or my father, no matter how bad the team is. Like they, you don't want to get embarrassed in front of your parents. It's just how you and you would like to think that all pro athletes are trying 100 every game. But it's not the reality of the situation, and that was an interesting angle for a while. And then eventually you start to notice well, these teams are getting steamed pretty heavily on those games. 

45:42
Outdoor games was another one. Well, guess what? The ice is very different for the outdoor games, right? It's not the exact same. Took a while for market to catch up on that. Uh, years ago the nhl introduced a bye week and we have data on teams having long times of period off, but it's a small amount of time. But if you were to just fade every team coming off of their bye week. In the first game you were rich for a while because they couldn't win. You're there at home with the family for a week not skating. You know it takes a toll. So I believe in angles, but I think people often overstep them or they're not quick enough to realize when that angle is gone. 

46:24 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Absolutely. Yeah, I completely agree with that. If you can tell me like a reasoning behind what you're saying and like it makes logical sense in the way that, the way the game is played, I'm completely open to it how do you approach the season? 

46:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
um, as it progresses. So like what is your? Right now we're in the infancy of the season. How does that look relative to, let's say, um, trade deadline is approaching for the nhl um, or maybe even just postseason. Is it pretty consistent across the entire year or there's some lulls in there? 

46:59 - So Money Sports (Guest)
there are some lulls. 

47:00
So like, in fact, um, it's, it's funny because this year has been a little bit different. 

47:04
So like, one thing I noticed, um, is that the last few years, um, I've started slower, um, early in the season and like it's been's been, it's, it's been, it's, it's, it's been consistent. 

47:16
So, like, what I've done this year is like, I've actually scaled back quite a bit to like to like, start the season and like, the like, the like, the trajectory of my ROI follows the same path. Right, I would start off slowly, I would really ramp it up and be great right up until all-star break and then I would kind of middle up until trade deadline, swoon right after trade deadline up in the playoffs, and I generally have pretty good playoffs, right. So what I'm trying to do this year is I'm trying to get rid of that first, first initial downswing in the first place, right, so, like, um, like, that's the reason why this year I've actually started um pretty slowly in terms of like, my volume, um, and I'm hoping that like to like, pick that up. But, um, yeah, it says it's, it's just the way that it's gone for me, like I've for, like, whatever reason, and like maybe it's my priors. It's something that that I'm like looking into, but I'm starting slowly most years now. 

48:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to the club. 

48:19 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, I've heard Rob say that a bunch of times too. 

48:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it was funny because we you know, the original plan for us this year was we're not going to get involved for like the first month or so. This I don't know what I'm doing that In the off season. I'm missing something about pricing players that change teams, maybe coaching changes. I don't do a lot of stuff Like in the NFL. I look at scheme a lot. I don't in hockey, so I'm sure there's ways that I can go about improving. The problem is you might've noticed this too so money this year. So money this year. 

48:53
There's way more action early. There's some new groups that are out there betting and for me, whenever I see the market going wild and I'm seeing stuff move where I scratch my head and I'm like, nah, this doesn't make sense to me. To me, that reeks of opportunity. So it's been very hard for me to sit on the sidelines and watch the board and be like this side is steaming 30 cents. There's definitely some real market manipulation happening right now in the market I can say, where I think some people have gotten smarter to realizing it's happening and not just blasting it back at pinnacle every single time. So there's like a lot of market dynamics this year that are different, which has compelled me to be betting earlier than I want to. It's going okay so far. I can't complain, but I was hoping to have a little bit more time off. 

49:46 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, and like the timing of the moves as well, right, like you would expect things to move a certain way at the magnitude that they do. Um, based on the news right now, if things are moving 30 cents just on, like a random tuesday morning for a game that starts at 8 pm eastern, there hasn't been a morning skate yet, and it's and it's seven o'clock pacific, and this and this line is moving 30 cents. Um, that's an issue, right, and like I would like to know what's happening there. And I've noticed that in like the cfl as well this year, that like there's a lot more, um, there's a lot more money in the cfl this year too, and that's something that um, it caused. It caused me headaches early in the year, but, um, as the year went on, I was able to get a get a handle on what it is that the people are looking for. 

50:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
God bless you for still betting the CFL. My man, that's not something. Well, I know you do so, just really quickly. I wouldn't mind pivoting there, because there's like four games a week, so the volume is incredibly low. Some of the I don't know if it's changed this year, but literally a couple years ago you would have some of the I. I don't know if it's changed this year, but literally a couple years ago you would have some of the openers come out on game day, which was absurd. They just there would be no lines to bet. The openers would come out, small limits hammered into place. I'm like why am I even doing this? Is that changed, or are they coming out earlier this year? 

51:10 - So Money Sports (Guest)
yeah, yeah, yeah, so the, so they're coming out earlier. Um limits, uh, go up progressively as, like, the week goes on. Obviously, but, um, um, yeah, I'm able to like get down what I need to. Now I probably wouldn't be able to do it on my own right. Um, but like, like the, like the movers, like they're like, like, like they're able to like get me, um, like, I can't do it like three, four days before the game, but like one or two days before the game, like it's, it's, it's. 

51:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It hasn't been a problem this year most of that's got to be pph, right, I would assume. Yeah, like the pinnacle takes one of the biggest pops on cfl and it's not very big, yes, so yeah, it's. It's tough. Um, how is? I know you're in bc, which is unregulated right now, but have you seen a? Um, you know, a positive effect on your business, your sports betting, with the legalization of sports betting? 

52:04 - So Money Sports (Guest)
for the most part, yes, right and like I'm. I'm not just talking about like, the, about the accounts, because, like I don't't, I don't have the same advantages that like Ontario does, for example, right and in terms of getting accounts, but more in terms of the people that that have, that have been brought into the industry. Right and the and like the, like the, the just the connections I made. For me, legalization, it has been a net positive. Obviously, you're going to have bad actors we see them everywhere but I mean that's just something that you have to weed out and that's going to be anywhere. But for the most part for my business, in terms of the connections I'm making, it's been great. 

52:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Makes sense. We haven't talked live betting at all. You talked a little bit about, like, some potential live betting angles with specific teams. You know you threw out the example of the Canucks defense sucking and whatever. Just as an example, are you involved in the live betting market in NHL now? 

53:08 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, yeah, I think there's tremendous opportunity there. So it's like the live betting, right, it's based on, like the like, the live betting lines is based on the pre-game algorithms that are that are resimmed constantly as the game is going on, right, um, and that's based on, like, the game state of the game, right, um, and, and it's just, it's it, it's just a model, right? So any anything that needs to change so like, um, a goalie being heard, or like a player go to their dressing room, uh, an interview, uh with, like a coach, or like between periods or on the bench anything that needs to be changed must be done through manual intervention, right, so that's a, that's a real person that needs to go in there, take the game down, make the adjustment, resim it and put it back up, right, so, now you're not going up against the model at that point, you're going up against the person. So, if you see these things in terms of the information, just be quicker than another person, right? And then if you can do that and you beat that person to the information, that is your edge, right. 

54:17
So, and like I know, like I remember I think it was last year, it was a Seattle Edmonton game, I'm trying to remember, but there was a goaltender that like there was a goaltending switch but the um. There was a goaltending switch but the whistle hadn't gone yet. Um, and like I'm watching him, he's struggling getting up right, so like he's gonna leave this game right, but but the algorithm hasn't, hasn't picked up on that right so like that's like just just continuously running. 

54:47
So like I'm sitting there betting the over right this because, like the backup goaltender is going to come in, he sucks right. So like I'm going to keep betting this over right Until, like the whistle goes, they like, they make the goaltending change. The person in the back end has to manually get in there, suspend the game, make the change whatever, and like re-sim everything and like put it back up right In the meantime, like I'm already done, and who knows, maybe that live trader turned off their phone just like you did back in the day and they're just watching the game on TV. 

55:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, it's, yeah, I mean, those edges exist all the time and it's across all pro sports. 

55:26 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
You mentioned a coach's like sideline or bench interview as one of your examples. What, what would a coach say mid-game that would you would think is actionable enough to you know bet that side or bet the other side? 

55:42 - So Money Sports (Guest)
so, for example, like, like, uh, like a player on the top line, yeah, he's just not going to be. 

55:47
Like like uh, like, uh, we're probably gonna move him down, like they wouldn't say it, like we're going to move him down, but like you can read between the lines that like that, like this player is not going to get as many minutes as as, like, I have allocated in my model, and if he's not getting that many minutes, he's probably not getting power play time, right. 

56:07
So, or like, or like stuff like if, if, like a coach says that like we need to keep the pressure on, or like keep like generating chances and stuff, then you know that there's going to be a push. Now, if this is a team like the Canucks a couple years ago, where their defense is like pinching up right, there's opportunity for there to be goals there, right, and like. So, like Bruce Boudreaux was like notorious for like so. Like Bruce Boudreaux was like notorious for like bringing everybody up right, like just everybody go all the time he didn't care about defense, right. So like now, if, like that team, if, like the Canucks are already losing the game 1-0, 2-0, you know that this game is about to blow up, right, because they're going to keep pushing and they don't care how many chances they give up. 

56:50 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, that makes sense For sure. 

56:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I like to look for some in-game props now. They're not as widely available in hockey as they are in football, for example. Football is one of the easiest and, honestly, all sports are pretty easy in the sense of I didn't expect this player to be playing this much. It's definitely not priced in properly. Now, the biggest things I look for in hockey games are changes on the power play in game um relative to what the pre-game lines were. Because sometimes you'll see a team come out they'll get a couple power plays early in the game. They don't score third time out. 

57:28
You see a different defenseman quarterbacking the power play. Well, there's going to be any time point markets up that are not pricing him as being on the power play. Uh, or you might see like another forward, that's just in the mix. So stuff like that, that's always going to be an edge. It always. There's just no safeguarding against that. It's it's man versus model and um model can only price so much and, like so said, it might end up being man versus man, where someone else to step in and intervene. But if you're quicker than that person, that's it. I mean it's an edge. 

58:00 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, like Keon Coleman, that game. He got benched because he was late. That was a perfect example. I'm just sitting watching the game and he didn't play a snap. The first four drives Under is probably good. 

58:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not even just the coach's commentary. So for me sometimes it'll be and this is NFL specific. I don't know that it applies so much to NHL, but in the NFL you have a primetime football game where these commentators have had access to the teams for the entire week. They've been in on team meetings, they've chatted with individual players and they're talking before the game and you might just hear Troy Aikman like I think so and so is going to have a big game tonight. They're making a concerted effort to target him early on in this game and that's just like, when that happens, music to my ears, because that stuff is not publicly out there until right before game time. Um, that those are. Those are some interesting angles. Hockey you don't get it as much. You get like the uh, the player skates over to the bench before the game to talk to the guy leaning over, but you don't get that much information out of it, unfortunately yeah. 

59:06 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Well, the problem with hockey is I say this all the time it might come off as offensive, but hockey players are what we have closest in society to Neanderthals. They're all the same. They all say the exact same thing all the time. It's programmed in their brain. They all wear the same things, they walk the same, they all have their little dogs that they bring around. They're all just the same. So basketball players say things in interviews that are interesting. Yeah, same with football players, hockey players not so much. Get pucks deep, you know. 

59:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, both teams played hard it's embedded in the culture of the sport. I remember this is a long time ago. Maybe so many used to watch me, but on the score back in the day it would have been like 2012, 2013. I interviewed tyler kennedy. You remember tyler kennedy? I think he's the penguins. Yeah, this guy. After three minutes I just told the producer I'm like we got to get him off there. He can't he can't respond to a question with more than it was like a publicist went to him and said you're gonna do this interview with these guys and he had wanted nothing to do with it. I'm not exaggerating One, two word answers. That was a tough one, tyler Kennedy in my sour books for a long time. All right, let's end it off with a few questions here Before we get into our plus EV, minus EV. Out of curiosity, I'd like to ask this to more bettors, because there's a a lot of of bets to choose from. What has been your most memorable bet, or like most memorable moment in your betting career so far? 

01:00:46 - So Money Sports (Guest)
so there there have been two, but for very different reasons. Okay, 2007, fiesta Bowl, oklahoma against Boise State Oklahoma was my bailout play. I had the Oklahoma money line, yeah, so I remember this game so well. So they're tied. In the fourth quarter, oklahoma gets a pick six, they go up seven. I'm spending the money in my head already paying off everybody like we're good, right Midfield, fourth and 18. Boise State has the ball fourth and 18 midfield down seven. Hokenaro touchdown right go to overtime. Adrian peterson scores, they go up seven. And this is where it really pissed me off right. So they. Um, so boise ties it up. Well, they don't tie it up, they, they, they score a touchdown, they're down one and then they go for two right and that was a statue of liberty statue of liberty yep, ian johnson runs it in right. 

01:01:48
So not only have I lost on a fourth and 18, not only have I lost on a statue of liberty play. The fucking guy proposes yes right after he scored the touchdown oh I, I cannot believe you're picking this game. 

01:02:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Johnny's gonna listen back to this afterwards and he's gonna go nut. One of the first times zach ever produced for us this organically. This game came up off air and john Johnny was talking about that proposal and he just kept showing Zach over and over. One of the funniest moments. But yes, I can only imagine how bitter and resentful you would be watching that. 

01:02:25 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
So money was there. Say no, say no. 

01:02:28 - So Money Sports (Guest)
To this day it still pisses me off. I'm a pretty like even keeled reasonable person. Right, it's like a happy occasion, Like good for you guys, You're getting married and stuff like that. I hate that. 

01:02:40 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
He's checking their Instagram every day seeing if they got divorced. 

01:02:44 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Pretty much. I actually looked them up a few years ago. They were still married like nine years later. 

01:02:49 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
God damn it. Yeah, yeah, so years ago, like they were still married, like nine years later. 

01:02:52 - So Money Sports (Guest)
God damn it. Yeah, yeah. So like that, that was nuts, um this, the second bet that really stands out. I'm rob you. I, you're gonna remember this very well. 

01:02:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, um, the um if you say, if you say, when the zamboni driver came in for for carolina against the leafs I'll. I can't handle that. I hope that's not what's coming up here. 

01:03:10 - So Money Sports (Guest)
It was the pandemic year Boston-Washington. We got information that Boston was calling up all their AHL guys. It was the last game of the year. We started betting them as a dog and they closed over minus 200. 

01:03:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Minus 230 close. I think I averaged minus 128 on that game and, um, sorry to interrupt you, I see your story but you're right, I remember it and my my betting partner was just he was so nervous about the amount that I was trying to get on the game. He's like are you sure about this? I'm like this is an nhl team against an ahl team. These opportunities don't come up. 

01:03:56 - So Money Sports (Guest)
I'm pretty sure we went down in that game yeah, yeah, so it was the second period boston actually scored two to go one. Nothing right. I'm like sitting there like we had regulation, we had money line, everything right, like everything. Like like this game closed over minus 200, like it gives minus 230. So like washington tied it up a few minutes later. So like great, we're still one one going to the third period. Yeah, this is like stressful here, right one, no, what's it? Two seconds left. Right michael raffle from like, from, like the goal line. Right scores on jeremy swayman. Yep, I just unbelievable, like what a win. I know I did not. A whole week after that I was like anything I bet I'm gonna lose at this point, like I'm not betting, I didn't. 

01:04:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I didn't remember that it came down to the final seconds of the game. I remember it was very sweaty, I was very nervous. Big bet I was in the same boat as you All sorts of derivatives regulation. It was just basically like send to everybody and tell them to bet up. Like people were asking like what price is good? 

01:05:06 - So Money Sports (Guest)
And it was like yeah, it's just bet, bet, bet. 

01:05:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's crazy. 

01:05:10 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Michael Raffle too. Like I love that guy. 

01:05:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I didn't remember it was Raffle, but yeah, it's funny Like I forgot about that completely and now I remembered. And now I will tell that as a memorable bet story when people ask, because it definitely was. I also remember my bailout game when I was younger, but it won. So I don't have the same story as you, but I was down bad and I put it all on the on the lakers against the spurs. It was the derrick fisher uh game where he shot the three with like 0.4 seconds left off the inbound but san antonio scored right before down the other end of the floor. I think it was tim duncan that hit a bucket to go ahead and I'm like this is it? 

01:05:55
that wasn't the playoffs it was a playoff game, yeah game four. I think yeah, yeah I remember exactly where I was watching at my house. You know, I I that was. That was like the game where I would have had to go to my like tail between my legs to my dad at some point and be like dad, I've lost a lot of money and there's people looking for me. That was the bailout game. 

01:06:19 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Luckily, yeah, everyone out there, you don't need a bailout game story. You don't need a bailout game. No, avoid that. Avoid that at all costs. I don't have any of those stories. Yeah, yeah. 

01:06:33 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Just different time back in the day. Yeah, it was. It was wild back then, man, and like I mean like we just didn't know any better. Right like now, like there's like so much more education, that like, if you really want to learn and like and like understand, like like there's all the, all the information for you, right, like like there's like the difference between the bailout game that we had and like and like the bet that, like that like we wanted to bet with the edge, which was the washington boston game. 

01:06:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, so like there's a big difference between those two do you feel there's a responsibility for pro bettors like yourself to educate the public on responsible betting practices, or do you think that the onus should be on each individual better to learn? 

01:07:10 - So Money Sports (Guest)
I feel a responsibility to an extent, and that's based on just some of the things I see. Like you guys know that, like I don't post much on Twitter, but like I'm on all the time and like I know everything that's going on, right. Like I send you guys screenshots and stuff, right, but so I see the same things you guys see, right and um. There's when I see stuff that is just wrong, right, um and like, but I know that I'm not gonna get like a, like a, like a, like an ego-driven, man-child response. Then like, yes, I will reach out to that person and like, most of the time it it's like a proper discourse, right. And then I feel that in those situations that, like, I am kind of doing my part because we've all made the same mistakes, right, We've all like to like get to a certain level, we've all lost a lot of money to get to that point. So I do feel that responsibility when I see things that you know, this was the same thing that I was thinking and I lost a lot of money this way. 

01:08:21
This was your tweet, right? Like this is what I think, right. And then. So you have that. Now you also have people that I they're, they're in it for the clicks or they're being purposefully obtuse or, um, like, they're just just disingenuous in general. Right like I, I don't feel any responsibility there. Like, I'm just not going to engage. Like like I know you're not in it for the right reason, so like, like, whatever you're saying, like just whatever, right like it. 

01:08:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like in those situations I'm not going to get involved well, you're a better man than uh, me and kirk, because you dm people on the side and we just quote, tweet them and blast them publicly. I should probably take a page out of your book. Honestly, it's a good way to go about it. Just try to have a personal conversation first before putting someone on blast. 

01:09:06 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
But I'm all in on putting them on blast yeah. 

01:09:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you're, you're. You love to stir the pot, man, you. You are me Probably five years ago. 

01:09:17 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
We get a lot of comments on that. 

01:09:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Somebody responded the comments last week and they're like it looks like Rob brought in his younger brother for this episode this week. Yeah, no, it's, I'm listening. I like that answer, I I. I have reached out to people before via DMS, but it's not the first thought sometimes, and maybe it should be, maybe it should be. Um, anyways, we'll end on this. Uh, doesn't have to be related to sports betting. It can be related to sports betting. Completely up to you. One thing that you think is plus EV in life and one thing that you think is minus EV in life. 

01:09:52 - So Money Sports (Guest)
So, plus EV and I'm looking directly at the both of you would be don't fight on the internet, yeah, yeah, like it's one of those things where, like I'm not, it's just, it just doesn't do anything right. Like you're not the people you're going to reach are going to, you're going to reach organically anyways, and the people like you're not the people you're gonna reach, you're gonna go to reach organically anyways, and the people that you're not gonna reach. Like it's just just a waste of time for me. 

01:10:23 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Well, yeah, it's like that would be like a minus. 

01:10:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Always can go either. By the way, this is why I created circle back on this channel as well, so I actually didn't have to fight on the internet. I could just roast people without even getting the repercussions of doing it on this channel as well. So I actually didn't have to fight on the internet. I could just roast people without even getting the repercussions of doing it on this channel. 

01:10:35 - So Money Sports (Guest)
See, that's a lot better and that's a better use of your time. 

01:10:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, because then, like the comp, listen, people are entitled to comment on every video. I encourage you to comment on every video. It tells YouTube that people are enjoying the content. But yeah, on circleback I can read them and I can be like you know what. I'll just let this be. This person commented it's actually benefiting our brand. It's not harmful in any way. But if I get into the back and forth on Twitter, I completely agree with you. I mean you, of all people. Kirk should know how much of a time suck it is to argue with people online. 

01:11:10 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yes, I wasn't going to say this, but now I'll tell this story. To be fair, look, I don't have that big of a following and I didn't get all my followers from fighting people on Twitter, but I did send a text message in the last two weeks saying me having a Twitter personality is probably my biggest financial windfall of my life because of the connections it's made for me. So you know, I don't know, maybe it is plus EV fighting on the internet. 

01:11:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, but maybe you could have got the exact same points across as though fighting Like if all you're trying to do is prove you're like a sharp basketball guy. People want to work with you. You could have just tweeted. 

01:11:48 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, but maybe if I never fought with people, I never got as many followers. And then someone doesn't see me and you know, all right, so you're just on his plus cv I'm fighting on the internet in person all right uh minus ev, so money um, I say this all the time it's, uh, watching your unders in like in, in like any sport, right. 

01:12:08 - So Money Sports (Guest)
So, um, when you have a basketball under, like like don't watch that game, right, like, it's just you're, you're just going to be sweating like the like the whole time, right, and like I don't watch my, I don't watch my nhl unders, right. So like, anytime I've got an under in a game, I just, I just don't watch it totally agree on basketball. 

01:12:27 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
completely disagree on hockey. Nba unders I'm on a a lot of NBA unders in the next few days Just torture. Feels like they can never get a stop. The players are robots, they hit every shot. Torture. But hockey unders I like watching. Most of the time there's no goals, so you're in the lead for most of the time. So I personally like that, but I feel like people don't agree with that take at all. 

01:12:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I hate unders. I bet unders often, but I hate watching them. I watched, I bet under in Browns and Bengals this past weekend and the opening kickoff got returned for a touchdown Took 12 seconds and I you know my first instinct is okay, what's the live line now? Okay, I'm completely underwater on this bet. I don't want to see any more of this. Luckily it won, but it's terrible. It's a terrible feeling. I don't like that at all. 

01:13:10 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Yeah, that reminds me of an under I had a couple years ago, first game of the year, pittsburgh-tampa Bay. I had under six or six and a half or whatever it was. The game's coasting right. We're like 1-1 in the third period. We're good, right. That was when Mike Sullivan started pulling his goalie down like three goals Right, and Pittsburgh it was actually under six and a half actually and like and then like Pittsburgh just kept pulling their goalie Right and you go to the third period and like that was the way that my season started, I lost an under like that Right. And like you know, like we've been doing this for a long time, and like you know that like, like things don't carry forward into the next game. But as a person, you're just sitting there like this is the way that I want to win right now. 

01:13:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah Well, sports betting can be cruel sometimes. Three years ago, opening night of hockey was a Saturday night. I had eight plays Went 0-8. Six of them were side plays that lost. Five of the six lost an OT or shootout, and the games were spaced so nicely apart from one another that I just kept turning from channel to channel, watching myself lose over and over. And my wife was actually with me. She's like which of these teams were we rooting for? I'm like the one that lost. She's like how bad is it? I'm like I'm not going to tell you how bad. 

01:14:38
You don't actually want to know how bad it is. 

01:14:39 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Anyways, that's sports. Zach, you have a plus EV or minus EV. Yeah, minus EV is sending bets to your friends that don't care about learning or anything like that. I will like. College football is the perfect example for me. I will have. I will like college football is the perfect example for me. I will have, I don't know, over the course of the week and then into the day, maybe like 30, 35 bets that I have. My friends say what are you betting today? Ok, the easiest thing to do is just send them everything that I have. First of all, a lot of them will have moved and they'll still bet them anyways. Second of all, they don't want to bet anything that's an under, an under on a total, an under on a player prop. They don't want to bet them To them. That's not fun. And then also I will give like. Here are some of the long shots I have. The first thing you guys probably have this too the first thing they say oh, you think this is going to hit. 

01:15:24
It's like no, I bet 190 to 1 on two plus TDs on this back half tight end on Iowa Do I think it's going to hit. 

01:15:31
No, but it's a good number. So then they bet it, it lose. And they say, well, why'd you give me that? And then I have to deal with that shit. And then, like yesterday for example, I had Jermichael Hastie anytime TD. I didn't give that to anybody, it was 17 to one, I just had found it bet it myself. It wins. I'm with my friends. Oh, why didn't you give us that one? Of course, like you know what man, there's no winning here. I can't give you this stuff unless you're going to bet everything I bet. When I bet it, it's not going to be the same. And then it just turns into them being like, well, why can't you give me winners? It's like, well, sorry guys, I can't, it's not going to happen that way. 

01:16:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I was looking for that Jemichael Hasty. As soon as I saw Antonio Gibson get hurt in the London game, I was trying to find Jemichael Hasty any time and it was unfortunately off the board. That would have been a nice one, yeah, kirk. 

01:16:24 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
So my plus EV. So last week we had Kaiser on and he mentioned a massive way to increase your edge is just cutting out your bad bets, and I was trying to get this in but the conversation went Totally agree with that. And then, just to add on to that, betting more on the stuff you know is good. I think I see a lot of people in the space, especially new bettors, obviously don't overbet, but I see a lot of them dramatically underbetting and edges just erode over time. So you're not going to have that much time with this. Don't massively underbet, especially the stuff you know is good. And then negative EV. I just had thinking in absolute. 

01:17:06
So the fight on Twitter I had with Chernoff, that really devolved into a lot of stuff. My main point was don't think about a line of oh, you can't bet this side and you can't bet that side. You've got to think in terms of percentages. Or think of okay, at this line, I would bet on this team because there's value. Don't bet, oh, this guy's going to score 25 points for sure. He has a 30% chance of reaching 30 minutes. You know, 70% chance of getting to 25 minutes. Okay, what does that cumulatively add up to versus thinking in absolutes? 

01:17:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, I still think you were in the wrong in that argument but of course you do. 

01:17:44
It's okay, I know what you're getting at. I know what you're getting at. It's content creators do it all I do at. I know what you're getting at. Yeah, it's content creators do it all I do. I, I'm for sure have done that before. I for sure have been on a show where it's like I absolutely cannot bet on this team next week and I don't actually mean it, because I know that there's a number where I can. But yeah, do you hate me too? 

01:18:05
I don't hate anyone call me in the hammer, it's all love. 

01:18:08 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, I. There's no one on twitter who I hate, other than maybe one or two that come to mind. 

01:18:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But if I'm responding to people, it's no hate, it's all fun I'm gonna piggyback on the don't argue online from so money and this is going to be very open-ended. But I'll give a specific example so you know what I mean. But I think plus ev move a lot of times is choose the path of least resistance. All right, and just think about that in your head. For me, I have lots of people who message me, dm me on Twitter. There's one guy who's a really nice guy. I've met him in real life. 

01:18:44
Good dude, we chat, but he's going to message me every single week with, like his favorite NFL play and if I tell him I don't like him like it or I'm on the other side, we are going to argue for 30 minutes and he's going to give me all these things that I think make no sense and I'm going to be upset. So I just stopped doing that. After a couple of times I said you know what I'm going to take the path of least resistance. After a couple times I said you know what I'm going to take the path of least resistance. I'm going to say I'm neutral on that game, or just not something that's going to fire him up to send off more messages that are going to upset me, and I think it's a decent way to approach life. 

01:19:23
If you're constantly finding resistance points, it's a waste of your time. It honestly makes you feel like shit Arguing with people sometimes as well. Just choose the path of least resistance. That'll be my plus EV move of the week. So Money. If you could go back five years and talk to a previous version of yourself, what advice would you give to your former self? 

01:19:45 - So Money Sports (Guest)
Do we have another hour? Yeah, there's like. I mean, there's so many things right, like we're constantly growing, constantly evolving. The biggest thing I would say to myself would be that it's going to be okay, right, like, just don't sweat the small shit, it's all going to work out as long as your process is right and I'm not talking about sports betting, I'm talking about life in general right, like, if your process is tight, the results are going to come, and just don't sweat the stuff you can't control. There's no point, right? So I think that, even like, if your goal is to make more money, right. Well, prepare to make that money, but don't chase the money. It'll come if your process is right. And I think you can apply that to um, to sports and to life in general well said. 

01:20:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I really like that. His name is so money sports. You can follow him on x at so money sports. You can catch him on edgework three days a week with producer zach phillips as well. Moreto Matt Alber rotating cast there. Find that on YouTube at Edgework HQ. You can also get that on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. We'll drop that down in the link in the description below. Thank you to everyone who tuned in this week. If you enjoyed this episode, smash that like button down below. Make sure you're subbed here on Circles Off, as we got two pieces of content dropping every week now with circle back as well. Appreciate you tuning in. We'll see you next week, everyone. Peace out.