00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it's been an incredible past few years, but also a bit of an announcement here. It is uh. 

00:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 186, right here, part of the Hammer Betting Network and presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. I'm Rob Pizzola, joined in studio by Johnny from Betstamp. Hey Rob, how's everything going? It's going. It's holiday season. This is coming out the day after Christmas, but we're recording before Christmas, and you know there's a lot on the go for me in my personal life right now. I've just moved recently, plus I may have procrastinated a little bit on gifts as well. Oh, tough, I'm in a tough spot. I've been dealing with Uber Eats recently as well. Customer service. This has not been a great couple of days. 

00:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, big win for the Steelers yesterday. Huh, Beating the Chiefs. 

00:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Here we go. 

00:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was a crazy win. I can't believe they pulled it off. 

00:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You remember the last time we did that was Conference Championships last year. We recorded, before we knew the Super Bowl final right. We recorded, yeah, we did, and we got the teams right. We nailed it. We nailed it, chiefs and 49ers. 

01:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, we nailed it. I think we nailed Chiefs winning the bowl. If you go back, I think so too. 

01:18
I said you said who do you have in the bowl? I said I got the Chiefs winning. And then you say, yeah, Chiefs, no Niners, but yeah, big win for the Steelers. Yesterday that was a crazy play by Pickens. He's in. Is he in Pickens? Was he in? I didn't notice him. He must not have played much Najee Harris, though. Nice touchdown there. Anyways, yeah, Christmas shopping can be difficult for a variety of reasons, but you know what's not difficult, that's getting down whatever amount you want at the sharpest sportsbook in the world. 

01:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Absolutely. You can do that at Pinnacle Sportsbook. They've been in business for the past 25 years for a reason and honestly, like Johnny said, high posted limits, which is beautiful. As a bettor, there's nothing worse than going typing in a bet amount, getting referred to trader, it coming back that you only have a smaller percentage of that overall bet. With Pinnacle, you see the limit, you can bet the limit and it's going into your account. No ifs, ands or buts. Make sure you check them out. Pinnaclecom slash hammer you must be 19 plus, not available in the US. As always, please play responsibly. 

02:26
We're going to do an educational episode here in a minute and also stay tuned right to the end of this episode. Some announcements for 2025 that we want to get into. That's coming in right at the very end of this. Before we do. I did mention the Uber Eats stuff on the top. I want you to know, I want your advice on how you would have handled these back-to-back situations. Oh, I can't wait to hear these Back-to-back situations. Two days in a row, I order with my wife and my brother Swiss chalet Festive specials, but the rib and chicken combo Okay half rack. 

03:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Third rack what are we talking about? 

03:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think it's half rack of ribs and then quarter chicken and whatever sides you want to get as well For those who are watching in the US. What's the closest comparable to Swiss chalet? Applebee's maybe? No, I don't think there's a good comp. 

03:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We have Applebee's here. 

03:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but there's not good. 

03:20 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know what the comp is. I can't think of a comp Like yeah, I don't know what the comp is, I can't think of a comp Like rotisserie chicken, it's a rotisserie chicken place, yeah, but that just sounds like you just don't have those. Really a lot of those, right. 

03:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, I ordered this and with the tip for the driver it comes to exactly, not exactly. I always put it to a certain cent amount, so I know it was me that did it, but it was roughly $100. It was roughly a hundred bucks. Okay, food delivery comes. It's tightly packaged, like usual. 

03:47
So the ribs are there for me and my brother. I lift up the ribs. They didn't put the chicken underneath, so neither myself or my brother got the chicken as part of the combo. No quarter chicken, the no quarter chicken. It was just the ribs with no chicken. I also ordered an insane amount of extra sauce, the chalet sauce, because I love to absolutely dunk my chicken in that sauce. So I'm like a little bit cheesed. I'm like, all right, what am I gonna do? Just, they didn't bring the chicken. Uh, contacted the driver. He's like I brought everything that's there. I'm like, all right, we just eat the meal. I'm gonna complain in the app afterwards. I brought everything that's there. I'm like, all right, we just eat the meal. I'm going to complain in the app afterwards. So I complained in the app. I explained missing items or whatever missing chicken. These guys gave me a $6 refund on a $100 purchase. 

04:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Can't have that. 

04:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I was flipping out. Okay, I let it be. I'm like I'm not going to deal with this customer service now. I don't want to, I'm not in the mood. I went back to it I want to say four or five days later and basically the customer service told me that they could do nothing for me because the complaint wasn't within 48 hours. I'm like, but the complaint was within 48 hours. I've just chosen not to follow up until afterwards, like it's done. Deal, I lost it. I'm like I use uber eats all the time. I'm done, I'm switching. Then I tried the alternatives. I was back to uber eats within a day. 

05:18
But second experience I'm in my new house. I forgot I don't have, like, my coffee machine unpacked or whatever. So I wake up in bed in the morning like I gotta get a coffee. I'm uh, you could upsell me really easily. I'm a uber one guy. I needed 15 bucks for free delivery. So I got a coffee from um local place ball zacks. Ball zacks, I knew it. Yeah, I got a coffee from Balzac, but I added in like some fucking crazy croissant, some cookies, to get it to 15 bucks. Okay, packages delivered, I go out, I get the stuff. There's no fucking coffee. They delivered just the croissant and the cookies, with no coffee. 

06:04
At that point I was furious in absolute orbit. I requested a refund on uber eats. They refunded me for less than the amount that the coffee was in and of itself, but on top of that I didn't get the other items. I only got the other items so that I could just get the coffee for free delivery. I'm fucking done with these apps Done. Haven't used one since. I'm sure I will in 2025. But what am I supposed to do? Just sit there and take it Like they definitely think I'm a complainer on file now? You know what I'm saying. 

06:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, see, this is why, honestly, bro, it's like you can't be complaining over the small stuff. You got to save it for the big stuff and complain on the big ones. If you get no bagel, you got to just take it. You got to take the hit a couple bucks and complain on the big ones. And complain and get your full order covered, like that Swiss Chalet. I would have complained full order. There's no exceptions there. Not getting the chicken is a detriment to your meal. 

07:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wanted the chicken man. It's a detriment to your meal. I wanted the chicken man. 

07:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a detriment to the meal. 

07:06 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
They wouldn't give you that refund, though, if you asked for the full meal. They wouldn't though. 

07:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, but you can't just give me. It's unacceptable. You can't just be getting just a Like. Let's say they forget you order like, for example, a burger, fries and a drink, okay, and they forget the burger. 

07:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, your meal's ruined. 

07:27 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I agree with you. They don't refund the burger. You can't just refund the burger. That's what Uber does. 

07:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then they refund the burger, but then the fries and drink were probably more expensive due to the combos. You're only getting back like six bucks I want those. 

07:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I want to hit the burger. See, I will complain in app whenever something is wrong and it's fucked me. Now I've known it's no different than like if you get a bet incorrectly graded in your sportsbook account and you're like, ah, this is a winner, they should grade it a winner. But if I complain now, someone's going to do an account review. You know what I'm saying. And I might be better off just accepting the l on that bet than having someone manually go into the account and start looking at the individual wagers. And I fucked that up years ago. I complained about little things being missing in the meal. 

08:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's all coming back to bite me. It's all coming back to bite you. You have too many strikes in your account. 

08:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Ah, fuck, that's a tough one. 

08:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tough. I've had a couple bad ones, but at the end of the day I don't even complain anymore at this point. I don't even complain anymore at this point, unless it's a really bad one. I'm just like ah, I took the L I don't know if I ever mentioned this, but I got the grocery one time because I got a good promo. It was like spend $70, get $40 off. I'm like, oh, okay, sure I'll get groceries Ordered, the groceries no message from the guy, nothing. They literally came, brought me the groceries but apparently one item was missing. So they didn't know, they didn't even sub it. He just didn't bring that item, which then dipped me below the 70 bucks so that I didn't get the 40. So I didn't get the 40 free. 

08:55 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
It was no way that did me below I thought I thought you're gonna say like when they sub it without your permission and they bring you something that you absolutely do not want, yeah you're like how was this the substitute? 

09:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, no, he just didn't bring that item. It dipped it below the 70. 

09:11 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I didn't get the 40 bucks off, so I paid like I paid like 65 bucks and I was supposed to pay 30 much worse than I was expecting. Yeah, oranges. 

09:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Substitute for for substituted with grape fruits one time. Those are very different fruits I know that they're similar that they're citrus. But if you like oranges, it's not guaranteed you're going to like a grapefruit. 

09:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll get to another thing. Here's one for us. It should be saved until the end of the show, but I have a plus EV move. It's not even worth it to complain about stuff on bad customer service because it's too much. They probably do it on purpose, but it takes too much time to potentially get a refund on anything that you just got to eat it. It's done. You lost a bet. Take it too bad. You get, like you get boned on your seat at the airplane, Like I just like just happened to me last week. It is, it happens. It's a quick, quick story Like I. Happens. It's a quick, quick story like I. I paid for an uh, an exit row seat. Yeah, um, I paid for an exit row seat, extra leg room why not 58 bucks? You know nothing? Major 58 us 58 us. 

10:15
It's like 100 58 usd will buck 42 exchange angle not quite like people actually think you're serious it's not that bad, it's pretty. 

10:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it's got to be close to 90 Canadian now, okay whatever let's say. 

10:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Let's say I paid. Let's say I just paid 60 bucks. Yeah, anyways, I pay 60 bucks. It doesn't even matter if it was 20 bucks, I pay it. I got the exit row. I get to the airport Flight's a bit delayed so knew at the same seat I walk in the aircraft I no longer have an exit row seat. I had the same number. You guys should have seen my face when I walked right past the exit row and looked at my ticket and so I didn't have the exit row and they didn't switch it and um, yeah, obviously you don't get a refund. And like, what am I gonna do? Call, for I'm gonna call. I'll probably be on the phone for like 30 minutes to an hour to potentially get a refund. Ev's not there. It's done. I just I took the L. 

11:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I just hate having those conversations. I don't want to have to do it. I just don't even want to have to have that. 

11:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want to have to pick up the phone wait on hold but you're going to call them for a chance to get 50 bucks. It just it's not worth it. 

11:19 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I agree with you. I I think you would have gotten the refund in this case. 

11:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But even if I would have got the refund and it took me 30 minutes the time is valued and it's not even 100% likely to get a refund. 

11:30 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
From experience with this airline, their hold music is horrific as well. I don't even want to deal with that it would have been horrifying to listen to it for an hour. 

11:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want to deal with that, if you honestly producer. Jacob, if you want to call, this has just happened. You can call and if I get the refund I'll give you back. 

11:46 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I'll give you the full refund, maybe not this week. He doesn't even want to do it. 

11:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wouldn't want to do it my. 

11:51 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Mondays are crazy, man. We circle back in the morning. We're here this afternoon. 

11:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There you go. So yeah, an early plus EV there. 

12:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I hear you We'll do plus EV, minus EV at the end of the show today and an announcement as I mentioned, we're going to do an educational episode. Haven't done this in a long time. This is going to be our last Circles Off episode of the year 2024. And one of the most common pieces of feedback we get are people who are looking for some sort of all-encompassing episode about sports betting in some capacity, sort of all-encompassing episode about sports betting in some capacity that's all inclusive of how to find an edge, managing your bankroll, all those things. And we have bits and pieces of that all over this channel, but thought we would create one evergreen episode that people could refer to at any time if they're new to betting, if they are losing better, if they just want to improve their craft. 

12:43
Whatever, me and Johnny are going to go through it. And I don't want to like guarantee profits for people. I'm not. I'm not that guy, I'm not like the marketer, like you will win by doing this. But you have a pretty damn good chance to win if you can follow this stuff and if you can't, then you should realize that you're betting for recreational purposes rather than for the money, jacob, you better clickbait. 

13:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
this thing Guaranteed. 2025 winning betting strategies in the thumbnail. 

13:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wow. 

13:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Late break there, you all right? No, just a chair. 

13:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wow New chair and budget for 2025. 

13:25
So we're going to provide some practical and actionable advice for people on how they can improve, especially going into a new year. Everybody sets their goals for the new year, right? You know how January is always packed at the gym. There's like a million faces that you've never seen there before, and then by February it's back to the way it was before. Hopefully this lasts longer than just January for you people out there, but this is the stuff that you need to do to succeed. There's no fluff in here. It's just straight to the point, to the fact, to the point. 

13:57
Betting's a skill game, basically, and you require some sort of strategy when you are betting. So let's start with, I think, the biggest pitfall or mistake that people make and, johnny, you've mentioned this before when people say that they're winning at betting. We've done interviews before where people are like oh yeah, I'm a winning bettor and you're like what's your edge? And then you start to see people go through their head and try to explain why they're winning bettors and we can very quickly tell whether it's real or not. But I think for any better who wants to succeed in 2025 or going forwards, you first have to identify where your edge is actually coming from. 

14:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree, I agree. So if you're putting it into like one specific sentence, it's just if you want to win at betting, you have to identify a specific edge in the market, and that has to be your mentality. Every time you place a bet it has to be for that specific edge or a specific edge. So you're not going to win if you're just all over the place placing bets on whatever you think or whatever you want, or just like going, and it's like firing some darts. Every bet you place, you have to be able to somewhat even evaluate and figure out how much that bet is worth. That's, that's one. I think. If you can, if you can do that, you've conquered probably 95 of the game. 

15:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you can just do that this one thing, you know what I mean yes, so people overestimate personal intuition and this is the biggest mistake that I you have friends that do this. I have friends that do this. Jacob, our producer, used to do this not anymore. He's learned now at this point and he's been updating the board in the background as well. 

15:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, which is nice I want to make a quick call out here. I did notice earlier in the day that jacob was watching on his phone darts yeah, I went to lunch and now I literally look at him right now and I see he opened his phone to a video. I'm gonna assume it's darts. So my question is, yeah, who do you have and how much money? I? 

16:02
don't have anybody, this one no, there's no way he follows. There's no way you're watching darts with no you know. There's no way you're raw dog in a darts match. 

16:09 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
No bets yeah, no way I watched the world championships right now I watched them all time this comes out, the fourth round will start tomorrow, so you don't have anything right now. Uh well, I few not none of them are playing, but I do have futures okay, all right, fair enough. 

16:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I assume that you knew how to find your edge in those darts futures, right? Oh yeah, you're not overestimating your personal intuition. 

16:34 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
No, I waited for the, so I was watching the draw live and was just quickly going through their road to the final and the players that were lesser ranked. So one half is stacked in this draw. The other half is a lot easier to get to the final. So I was finding the best matchup, the best road to the finals, as it happened, and after that it steamed in the right direction. All right, understood, very nice. There you go. 

17:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's some very clear logic to steamed in the right direction. So good to watch there Understood. Very nice there you go. 

17:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's some very clear logic to you determining the price there, what people often do and it's very typical in the NFL, but happens in all sports, and I made this fundamental mistake many times in life but it's because everybody watches the sport and they think that they're going to handicap in their own way and by just handicapping the games themselves they're going to have some sort of edge betting into a market, and that's just not the way it works. Right, the betting market is bettors against bettors. Yes, you're betting into the sportsbook, sportsbook's going to move the lines, but they're moving the lines based off of other bets that are coming in. So if I wanted to win money on NFL major market sides well, there's ways to do that. One would be betting earlier in the week, when less professional money is going in. Second would be to figure out something that the market is not accounting for. That's not going to happen. You're not going to be able to do that nowadays. 

18:02
So to find edges nowadays, I would definitely say get ahead of line moves. I think we can both agree on that. Like, if you want to bet major market stuff, there's no sense in waiting until the pros have already shaped the line. If you're going to do that right Like at that point, you're basically drawing dead as a better. I don't care how big of an NBA fan you are MLB fan, nhl, nfl If you're going to wait till the very last minute when sportsbooks are taking the largest bets that they've been taking all day or all week, you're not going to win, and that's just the reality of things. 

18:35
I hate to be very blunt, but that's the case. You can specialize in niche markets or smaller markets, like props. That's a much better way to go about things than to just fixate on. I want to predict the side and total of all these major market events. You can use the market as your North Star and take like a top-down betting approach, which is probably the easiest way for someone to do it nowadays. Or you can start to build out some sort of model, leverage data and analytics, but understand that it's going to take a long time for you to get to the point that you want to get to. You might want to watch last week's episode with Andrew Mack if you're interested in heading down that path, but these are different ways that you can find an edge. I don't know if there's anything I left out there. 

19:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No. Just to summarize, I think there's three ways, and they're not necessarily tied to specific sports. So you mentioned major markets, Any market, any sport, any time of the year. There's basically only three ways to get an edge. Number one is, as Rob mentioned, the market. So basically, your edge being this place is better, is a more proven number, and they say it should be this, so I'm going to trust that and I'm going to get this, which is a contrarian, uh, you know price to that. Therefore, I have an edge based on that source of truth. 

19:57
That's number one works with any market. Number two is, as rob mentioned, basically like making your own numbers. So the way I kind of see this is like doing a bunch of data and analytics, building a ground up model or having something that you do that's not factored in and saying, all right, I can beat the market because of this thing that I have, and then comparing your number to the market number and say, yep, I'm better because of this. That one, honestly, is extremely hard to do and pretty much no beginner is succeeding at that right now. It does take a lot of time and there's a lot of room for mistakes. And then the third one, which Rob mentioned, the, you know, the top down whole thing is the easiest. I think the easiest one is actually this third one, which is just leveraging like news. 

20:38 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
So if you can. 

20:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you could just be a bit quicker to news, then that's an easy one, that's automatic and like pretty much carefree. So if you have the news that a certain player is going to be out, or if you're just hitting the book before it moves on the news, then pretty much automatically going to have an edge and over the long run that automatic edge will compound. You'll be certain to win. So those are the three ways. If you're a true beginner, what I would do is probably start with the news-based stuff and then slowly kind of combine that in with a little bit of top-down source of true stuff. And then, if you want to start your own origination, maybe in some small markets first, some prop markets first, and then move up to the major stuff if you so get there. But that's the way I'd kind of look at that. Outside of those three things there's really no, you know, proven edges. 

21:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I would say that some things that people might do is like blindly tail picks from other people Nowadays. I would say that we're at a in an age of misinformation where it's pretty easy for someone to convince people that they're winning better when they're not. There are apps out there like picket nowadays where let's just say it's pretty easy to mislead other people that are out there in terms of thinking you're winning better. So I would strongly caution against blindly tailing picks and especially if you're going to blindly tail picks because someone is quote unquote hot on a hot streak over a small sample, because water is going to find its level over time. So when, when we're talking about finding edges, listen, I'm I'm not here to tell you that you can never find someone who's publicly posting picks that you can tail. You probably can. 

22:28
In fact, there's a few people that I leverage on bet stamp for sports, that I don't handicap myself, that I feel very strongly about their ability to win in the long run. They track against sharp sports books. For one, I could tell by the times that they're making their bets, that they know what they're doing, things of that nature. But don't get into the habit of just blindly tailing anyone because you see them come across your Twitter timeline or you watch a TikTok video or anything like that. And also, at the end of the day, if you don't have an edge, that's fine. You're gambling for entertainment. At that point, it's totally okay. But don't expect long-term success. Right, there's nothing that now there's a lot of things that bother me. I was going to say there's nothing that triggers anymore. That's not entirely true, but the people who post and they're very disappointed with theirself when they're on like this losing streak and they're like I can't overcome this, I'm not seeing the board clearly, they very likely didn't have an edge in the first place. 

23:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Star winning streak starts today. That's it. I'm sick and tired of this. I'm done. 

23:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm working an extra hour, I'm setting the alarm Tomorrow morning 5 am bright early going to do whatever it takes to handicap these games. These people don't have an edge is the reality. And again, if you want to find out if you should be tailing someone or if you think that someone's worthwhile, you can always ask them that question what is it that you are doing that gives you their your edge in market? And if someone's just saying like, well, listen, I cap the games hard. I spend a lot of time on this, I'm sorry. Watch a lot of nfl yeah I watch all the games. 

24:02
I know all the fantasy players. 

24:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've been playing fantasy for 15 years. 

24:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, like that type of stuff is not going to work for you. So figure out what your edge is going to be and then everything stems from there. 

24:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I want to get into one thing. If your edge is one of those three things I'd say, you have a chance of winning. There's a few very minor other things I'm not worth mentioning of ways that you can win as well, but in general, if you're betting and your edge is not one of those three things, it's going to be extremely difficult to win, which is okay as long as you have the expectation that you're then just betting for recreation, for fun. So the common mistakes, as Rob mentioned, though, would be obviously like blinding, tailing picks and stuff like that. 

24:47
But really the most common mistake we hear is people just saying that they follow the sport. It's a sick and twisted trick, but, as our friend Plus TV Analytics has in his pinned tweet, which I recently saw but it is a crazy, crazy, crazy trick when you know the sport and I do mean this genuinely you will lose more money than someone who doesn't know the sport. If you don't know how to bet and you just follow the sport but you're not a better, you will highly likely lose more money than someone who's just coin flipping, which sucks, but that's historically been true. 

25:22 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Explain that. Explain that theory. 

25:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've lived it firsthand right. I used to do some work with other people who were modeling baseball. We did that as a group and there was one player who played pretty competitive college baseball who thought he knew the game inside and out and was kind of like manually overriding a lot of logic because of the way that he saw things from his own particular perspective instead of actually backtesting this stuff. So sometimes it can be a flaw right. It's like you know the sport so well that you can often miscount stuff, double count things. There's like a lot of negativity that can happen. 

26:05 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I just bring it up because I've been in the position where I've needed a video like this. So I'm thinking of what somebody would say to a coach. 

26:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're not calling you out for your darts expertise, if that's what you think is happening. 

26:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But basically think of it this way If you play fantasy football, you're going to look and you're going to say, oh, I know these sports, I know all this stuff, whatever. You're going to literally look and you're going to see that, for example okay, this is just a random example you're going to look at the Houston Texans and you're going to say, oh, diggs is out, tank Dell is out. I'm obviously the Houston Texans are. Yeah, sure, collins is in, but they lost their two of their three top receivers. Like they're, I'm going to bet the other team who's Stroud going to throw to, when in reality that doesn't impact the spread much. 

26:52
So if you were a better, you realize that, okay, what happens when a guy's actually ruled out? Does the number move? Does the market respect it? Where does it go? 

26:58
So oftentimes we see people play NFL. When a running back gets ruled out, they'll go rush and bet the other team, thinking it's a good bet, when in reality they're just wasting money. And usually those people, because they think they have an edge, are not doing the things that it takes to be successful without an edge, meaning like line shopping, market reading, things like that. So I've had, you know, a perfect example would be somebody running to bet the other team when Aaron Jones jones is out on the vikings, which does quite literally nothing to the spread and he's out. 

27:29
So these, these little things, back and forths they will add up and when you have the confidence to think that you know the sport, you're going to blindly fire more, more recklessly, not be careful, and you will lose more money than if you just didn't know the sport at all and said, okay, I don, I don't know the sport, but you know I might just pick this side today and I might just pick this side today. Sure, I'll fire these three games for fun. You're not going to get aggressive, you're not going to chase losses, you're not going to bet too big on one side, for example, like overall. There's a lot of different things that people do, but typically, when you have overconfidence and you think you have an edge, but you don't, oftentimes you'll lose a lot more than if you just know you don't have an edge and you're betting for fun completely agree, uh. 

28:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So the first question you ask yourself when you're gonna go bet in 2025 here is why do you think you're going to win? What is your edge period? And if you can answer that, then and it's not because you're gonna to work so hard on handicapping the games and anything like that then you're going to be fine. But you have to figure out why you're going to win, and there's more ways, like johnny mentioned just outside. 

28:34
Listen, if, if you're not taking this too seriously, but you still want to win a little bit of money and your whole thing is you're going to play uh, I don't know odds boosts and that's all you want to do, but you're going play. I don't know odds boosts and that's all you wanna do, but you're gonna price shop them against other books and say this is actually a plus EV odds boost, I'm just gonna play those. That is a way you're going to win. Now, you might not be able to scale that, but at least you've identified an actual edge there where you're gonna return something, and that is actually a real edge that you can take advantage of. The second question that you're going to ask yourself is are you betting responsibly or are you setting yourself up to go? 

29:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do want to say one thing before we get into this. Sorry was, if you want to say, hey, this is my edge, that's great. But one step further which I think, if you like I said, if you can get to this, you're 95% of the way there is calculate what that bet is worth. So not only just saying do I have an edge, like simple yes, no, but saying like, what is my edge, how much is this truly worth? So if you have something at plus 500 and really you think that should be minus 500, well, that's a massive edge. So if you're betting a hundred dollars on that, that's worth quite, quite a lot of money. Right, it's worth above plus five, maybe 500 bucks. Maybe 400 bucks like, depending on exactly what you're pricing, the true, fair value that is. So when you're, when you have an edge, typically that edge is not going to be greater than 10 percent. It most of the time it's not going to be greater than 10 percent. 

30:03
Typically, the best professionals are grinding out and around the range of like 1% to 3% edges and grinding them with a ton of volume. But they know, hey, if I have a 2.4% edge on this bet and I'm betting on this, $6,000, $1,000, $160,000, whatever it is. They quantify that and say all right, this bet, when I click this button, I will have theoretically made $1,600, or I would have theoretically made $24.26. And they know that amount in turn. So when you do that and you're actually getting close to that calculation, once you start to see and put more volume through and bet more, you can then basically take your theoretical that you calculated, take your actuals and see how far apart that is. So if you can just calculate what your edge is and what you think it is, and then you start to see that your actuals are coming in close to that edge, you're set, you've done it, you've mastered the part that 95, maybe even more, will never get to in the in the age of not just sports betting but any betting whatsoever yep, agreed. 

31:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, then it's about setting yourself up not to go broke, basically so betting responsibly in a way that you don't go broke. It's kind of a sad story. We laughed about it on circle back earlier this week, but a member of Gambling Twitter, grp Wins, lost $5,000 in a pot limit Omaha game this week. He was asked about it. He said he had to stop because he lost 10% of his net worth in that day, and that's a rule for him. I'm going to stop when I lose 10%. That was 10% of net worth, not bankroll. Okay, it's a crippling amount of money for any human being to lose. I'm going to stop when I lose 10%. That was 10% of net worth, not bankroll. Okay, it's a crippling amount of money for any human being to lose, and I don't want to make it a laughing matter. 

31:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It kind of can be, because GRP and like the character- that he is, but he's going to put in his bio that he was discussed on Circles Off Now. 

32:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think he's already has it in his bio that he's been. He's been on the hammer betting network, so considering we're there he might put like a 2x next to it at some point. 

32:08
I'm happy about that, uh. But we have to talk bankroll management basics right now. Right, because by far it's sports betting is challenging, but it's usually a combo of somebody who doesn't have an edge and a combo of somebody who doesn't know how to bet right, and there is a um, a lot of stuff that's easier said than done. Right, avoid chasing losses. Well, when you've lost a lot of money on the day and there's one game left to get it back, casual, better for them that can be an opportunity to get it all back in one shot. We've been there. I've been there before. 

32:47
I don't know if Johnny has or not, but people have been there before where you lose a bunch, you try to win it back all at once. But when you're betting, you kind of especially when you're betting for income or trying to make some revenue off of this you got to take a look at the long picture. I know it sounds like really cheesy and really easy to do, but if you're actually betting a set percentage of your bankroll based off of your edge, and it becomes almost mathematical for you or formulaic, it's a lot easier to follow that and not deviate than it is. If you're just betting. You know willy-nilly, so to speak. 

33:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's true. We've seen, obviously, a lot of horror stories. As you mentioned, it's once you've got an edge which is like again, you're far along. Now it's about obviously not messing it up and continuing to bet, but there are still just a ton of things that people do even when they have an edge. So I think when we're talking about bankroll management now, we're going to more gear towards assuming you've already got that edge. If you don't have an edge. 

33:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you haven't answered question one of like what is my edge, you might as well just stop at this point, because you need to answer that Well at that point. 

33:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Your bankroll management should be just bet an amount of money that keeps it fun for you, where you're not impacting your life. You know, 20 bucks for some people might be a thousand bucks for other people, depending on how much you have and how much you want to bet. But that should just be. Hey, I bet, I bet 500 bucks. That's what I bet. I call it a day. I bet five games a week. All good, If you, if you've answered question one, now we get onto the bankroll management. I was going to say with you, Rob, so we're not even going to talk here like, oh, don't chase your losses, don't blow your thing. But when betting with an edge, what are the most common bankroll management practices that people get? 

34:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
wrong, I think, that they don't adjust their bankroll over time. So, for example, if you start with an X amount in a bankroll and you have a very bad losing streak to start, most bettors actually do the opposite of what they should do. They should actually be scaling back their bet sizes proportionate to what their updated bank roll is, but instead they actually try to win it back and by doing so, they perpetuate the problem even further. Right, and I think maintaining like a um, a rolling bankroll over time is a good way of doing things. Right. If you start with and doing things right. If you start with and this is just random numbers right, you start with 50K as your bankroll and you have a really good winning week or winning month, and now you're up to 60K. Okay, now your percentage, your bets, are going to increase a little bit as your bankroll has started to increase. 

35:22
Opposite thing holds true as well. If you have a $50,000 bankroll, you have a shitty month, shitty week, you're down to 35K, 40k. Well, you're not betting the same that you did when you had the 50K bankroll. You have to bet proportionally to it. So to me, that's the biggest mistake that I know that other people make. That are smart, they just they're not adjusting with the waves of betting. They just they're not adjusting with the waves of betting. 

35:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I would agree on that. So, basically saying, if you had a $20,000 bankroll and you lost $2,000, then your bet size has to be diminishing. There you can't. Maybe you were betting $600, that's got to be down to $500. Or maybe you're betting $200, that's got to be down to, technically, $180. And oftentimes I do feel like, yeah, it is hard for people to do that once you've got the taste of starting to bet bigger and bigger amounts. 

36:09
But the way I like to kind of segment this and what's always helped me is it's not necessarily about how much you're betting. How big you're betting is not the answer. It's how much money are you making on that given bet? Roi wise, how much? What's your actual expected value of that bet? So some people you'll see them they're betting like a straight bet on the NFL. It might be betting the Kansas city chiefs about a hundred thousand and you're like, wow, they bet a hundred thousand dollars on that. They're betting a hundred thousand dollars and likely have what they consider to be maybe a 1% edge, meaning the expected value when they click that bet is $1,000. I might have a bet where I place something and I might bet it for $6,000 or $5,000. And I say, wow, this is actually a 20% edge. So my $5,000 is returning me the same net money as that $100,000 bet. 

37:08
So when you're looking at the sizing, betting bigger doesn't necessarily mean winning more. It's all about betting bigger and having that edge. So if you're betting the major markets and you're betting down these major groups, if they're betting two, three million dollars a game, they know that their edge is not 4%, 5%, 10%. They know their edge is thin and they might be getting that volume size up in order to raise that expected value number to a number that they have to. But if you're just starting out, you have a 20K bankroll. 

37:39
Don't worry that your bet size is only $500. Worry about making that. 20 bucks a click, 30 bucks a click, 50 a click. And if you look at it in terms of how much you're making per click, it becomes a lot easier to size down when you're on a bad run or size up, because it's not like you're betting between 2000 and a hundred thousand. You know you're betting. Essentially you're making between, let's say, $1 and $50 per click. So now it's, it doesn't seem that crazy to make a click that's worth only $17 when you used to be clicking to win $22. 

38:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I think part of it comes with unrealistic expectations a lot of times as well is people don't see that growth quick enough lots of times and they all take things into their own hands to get that growth to be a little bit quicker, right? For some people, like you, have a 50K bankroll. Expectations for certain people are going to be different, right? And for some, the idea of growing that bankroll you know, $10,000, 20% of your overall starting bankroll over the course of a few months, that might not be exciting to someone who has 50K to bet with in the early going they're like, wow, I can just go bigger bets and I would make more money. But the expectations have to be realistic and I love the way that you think about that, because it's kind of the same way that I think about that when it comes to betting is like okay, I've made the click, the line is very likely going to move into this spot. I know that when it moves here or this is what the true line is. 

39:07
At the time that I made the bet, this click was worth X amount of money and you just keep trying to stack those and stack those. But ultimately you do have to have some sort of strategy in determining your bet sizes and what that's going to be. And there needs to be some sort of consistency there. And when I say consistency, I'm not saying you bet the same amount on every game. I wouldn't say do that um no, I always use the same example, but it's an easy one to understand. If I'm going to flip a coin right and johnny's going to offer me plus 100, I get to pick heads or tails. Well, I don't have an edge there. That's the 50 50 on a coin flip. 

39:42
But if you probably do it, for you'll probably do it because I want to gamble a little bit right and and you know me and Johnny got a sheet At even, at even, and I've got to try to let him win his money back, of course, on the sheet. But if he then offers me plus 110, okay I'm going to make a bet because it's in my favor. Well, if he says to me now, Rob, I'll give you plus 150, well I'm going to ask him for a or something stupid like that. First I'd make sure it wasn't a weighted coin, because you know you gotta make sure it's fair. But I would then take a bigger bet. So you do want to bet according to your sizing. And then I would consider especially for those in the early going who don't have the best bankroll management principle some sort of cap at like. 

40:24
This is going to be my max bet where I'm not going too far overboard, unless it was an insane edge type of situation. So for me, you figure out how you're going to stake. There's many ways to do this. I don't even think you need to use Kelly criteria and I think that's overkill for a lot of bettors out there, especially if you're if you know, if you identified your edge is reacting to news in real time. Well, guess what You're not going to be able to compute a formula of exactly how much you should bet when Kevin Durant is out for a game and you've got to fire immediately. You're just already going to have that prepared. So your bankroll strategy should depend on correlate to how you're betting as well, and I've mentioned this one before. 

41:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But the biggest mistake I see actual smart bettors that have an edge making, especially when starting out, is like they don't factor in the the long odds into how much they're betting. And especially now with these sgps and stuff, a lot of couple guys have some edges on same game parlays 100 to 1, 500 to 1, like I see a guy a guy will send me a screenshot he bet something like 500 bucks to win like 600,000. And I'm like dude, your bankroll is like a hundred thousand. You can't be betting $500 on stuff that is, you know, so crazy long odds Like that bet for your bankroll, you know, depending on the odds, should be sometimes even like 30 bucks, 60 bucks, like it's not. You'll really realize it when you have like the long odds of something. 

41:52
If it's like 2000 to 1, like you really don't, you can't be betting that much on that. So that's never going to be something you can bet three grand on. So that is the one area I've actually seen like successful bettors with an edge who are betting 2000. A game will fire 600 on a long shot sgp, which is it. It's just way too much. You cannot be doing that, agreed. 

42:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So step one figure out what your edge is. Two, set your bankroll and bet according to that bankroll. Then there's multiple other things we can get into here. We talk about this a million times and I know that I already can see some of the sharp guys on gambling Twitter being like why are you even mentioning it again? For one, there's a newer audience here that we have on Circles Off. Appreciate everyone who subscribed to this channel. Push us to 15K subscribers. Hit that subscribe button if you are new here and you haven't subscribed to the channel. 

42:45
But I would ask yourself, are you maximizing the value of every bet that you make? And the easiest way to maximize the value of every bet that you make is line shopping. I know it's a simple concept. I still cannot understand why the vast majority of people well, I can understand it. It's because the vast majority of people are betting for entertainment. But if you are serious about sports betting, every cent literally every cent matters, and if you are going to take plus three at minus 120 instead of minus 110, because you don't have money in the book that's offering plus three, minus 110, then frankly, you're doing yourself a huge disservice and you might as well just be betting for entertainment purposes at that point anyways, because that would be a very clear demonstration to any sharp better that you're not serious about the game, and I just don't know what else to say other than that it's one of the most crucial aspects to success. 

43:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Every single great better that I know is extremely price sensitive to the point where they will do anything to save even a cent on a game, and that has to be the mentality for there's guys out there that will literally make a fake twitter account, tweet the wrong news to get a half point of value Literally, and those are some of the most successful bettors in the world. What a pro move that was. What a pro move, just an unbelievable move. 

44:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Luke absolute legend but also there's tools and resources available for this nowadays. This isn't 20 years ago, obviously, you had Don Best still. But this isn't back in the day when I was young, in university or college, and if I wanted to bet, I actually had to open up every sports book. 

44:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I couldn't, you know, afford a don best computers weren't even that powerful to be opening all those tabs at the time it's true that would be like I could only I only had one monitor at that time. 

44:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was like there was no chance I would have had multiple monitors at that time. But literally there was a time where you had to price compare manually, like I was going to go place a bet on an nhl game. Okay, I have to log into this site, check it. By the way, you actually have to log in to all these sites to even see their odds as well and go through one by one. It's not like that anymore and obviously myself and johnny are co-owners of betstamp. It's a very easy, free tool that you can leverage for any sort of line shopping full game sides and totals, player props, game props, anything like that. But it's not even that hard nowadays. It's like it's it's five seconds of your process if you're watching this and you're not betting big. 

45:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
you want something free? Use betstamp. It's right there. It it's free, you have it. If you're looking for you know you're a bit of serious better, who's watching this and wants to win more? Buy the pro. You will not regret buying the pro. Betstamp pro. Reach out contact at betstampapp. You will not regret buying the pro. Literally, there is genuinely millions of dollars being made as a community using this tool, not going to last forever. But if you don't want to pay for anything and you're just starting out the free app, it's not the best. I'm not going to say it's like the best. There's nothing wrong with it, whatever. But you can go on there and, just like you know, click around and you can see your price discrepancies amongst books. It's not as easy as the paid screen and it doesn't guarantee you free money, but for a free product, I do still believe it's the best free product out there. 

46:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, completely agree with you and it's just simple. I mean it should be part of your betting process right Before you're about to place a bet. You like you know everything's relative to the market price. Right, you like an NFL side or whatever. It should be relative to the price. But let's say you're betting regardless, you want to take the Rams in a game. You just open up, find who has the best price on the Rams, go bet it at that book. And some people might say, well, that's a lot of work. I got to deposit into multiple books. That's what it takes in sports betting. I mean it makes a big difference. I honestly it's painful for me when people post. We do this all the time, me and johnny privately. I'm not going to call people out in public for this, but, like johnny will send me a winning parlay that somebody posted and be like dude, like, look at this, what do you notice? I'm like, oh, I mean the guy should have got paid an extra thousand on this parlay literally for small money. 

47:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sometimes it's like this guy literally left 180 000 on the table like he listen. 

47:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You celebrate whenever you're going to win in sports betting, but if you could have won a lot more money, you'd obviously want that opportunity. And, in the similar vein, if you could have lost less when you lose a bet, why wouldn't you want to do that? I so, it's sure, a little bit of extra work up front to diversify, be able to get money into different sports books and things of that nature, but at the end of the day, if price sensitivity is not a concept that is for you, then seriously don't bet with the intent of making money. That's all I can really say. 

47:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Another funny thing is sometimes I'll send Rob a screenshot or he'll send me one and we'll be like I don't even know how he got like plus six and a half, like I didn't even know that was ever even available. Like he should have been at least like plus eight and a half, nine and a half like, not for football, for basketball, something like that. I'll be like how, how did when? Was it even six and a half Like? So yeah, people definitely are costing themselves a lot of money on wins, even six and a half Like. So, yeah, people definitely are costing themselves a lot of money on wins. 

48:11
One cool thing here that I don't normally say is you got to kind of, if you want to really win betting you, you kind of got to not care what you bet on. It's very important to not care what you bet on, meaning you might be a Vikings fan, okay, but if you log on to the account and you find an edge on the Packers playing the Vikings, then that's what you got to bet. There's no, there's no, oh no, I'm not going to bet this because they're playing my home team. If you're really in this to make money, then you don't really care who you're betting on. You don't care what it is the money is green if you're betting on the Chargers, it's green if you're betting on the Vikings and it's red if you're betting on the Packers and the Seahawks at those prices. So you know, you make the call, but it kind of doesn't matter about what your favorite team is or who you want to win or who you think you're going to win. You're betting the numbers, not the teams, meaning you don't really get a choice. Whatever's there is there, you don't make the call. Yep, if you're going to go in with that mentality, you're going to win a lot more money than also saying, hey, I want to bet the Seahawks, let me go find the best price on the Seahawks. It's just night and day, night and day difference. 

49:16
And I think the casual better not understanding that one thing is what's costing them more? Because at the end of the day, you don't even really need to line shop every book at the same time and have every single book open. So I'll give you one example is like let's say, you only have an account right now, you only want one book, you only have enough money to put in one book, you only want to bet on bet 365. You got to just find all of the edges on bet 365. Yeah, you can't now be like oh, I want to bet the Seahawks, but they're a better price on pinnacle and this I'm not going to bet them. I'm going to bet them or I'm not going to bet them. You have to just then be like okay, I have bet 365. Let me see what's good on the menu at bet 365. What's good value here today? And if you can pick off that good value at that one specific sports book, that good value, you don't even want to watch it. 

50:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But that's the value. That's the value. It might be a rule at the sportsbook that they have, like their bet 365. Is an early payout sportsbook right If a team goes up X amount in NBA, mlb, nhl and it's auto payout. So you know when you're betting an underdog, potentially on the money line you might want to get paid out even if the other team comes back. It's like little nuances within each book that you're going to look to capitalize on yeah. 

50:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So what I'm trying to say, though, is people get discouraged, like, oh well, I'm not going to open up 13 books. That is the way to do it. Yes, you definitely need to do that if you want to win long term, you want to win a lot of money, but if you just have one book, you can still win, but then you have to just play the best stuff at that book. And to Rob's point about the shopping is if you're, then if you're, if you're going to play something and it's not the best price in market, well you know, you can't really afford to be doing that at the level that you're at at the beginning stages. You can't afford to be taking something at minus one 11 when another book has that exact same play at minus 106. Like that is not something you can afford to do. At the lower levels, you really have to be grinding out every single thing you can get. 

51:15
So that's kind of another thing where, when it comes to line shopping, people often say like you need to open up every book, put money in every one and be like an exact thing. You don't even need that, just whatever one you have, just get the best plays on that book. Simply put and by the way the BetStand Pro does that you can sort by book. Let's say you just have a FanDuel account, you just have a Pinnacle account. You just sort by that and it'll show you the edges at that book. So now you don't have to worry about having like 20 open. Maybe you have three books, maybe you have one, maybe you have it'll show you that. But you definitely need to be making sure that you're not picking your own plays without actually looking at the numbers. 

51:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Speaking of looking at the numbers, I think a big thing. One of the first episodes we ever did it was in the first 10, was Sports Betting Myths. That's actually one of my favorite episodes. It still holds up even if you go back and listen to it now I've got to go back and listen to it. 

52:07
Yeah, we did five myths each at that time. Still a good listen. If anyone wants to go, I'll check it out on Spotify or Apple podcasts one of our first episodes that we ever did. But one important question to ask yourself is is what flawed thinking is holding you back from being a good sports better? And I think people need to focus on data and logic and less so narratives and gut feelings. So for your example, johnny, of just like using an odd screen, it's understanding this is how the market works, this is how I can benefit from that, and you use an odd screen to do so. I can't tell you how many times I hear the dumbest shit on a daily basis of like, ah well, you know what I'm like, I'm an underdog. Better, and the favorites are coming through in the NFL this year. It's like, well, you could just be a favorite better than you know, if underdogs were winning over a long period of time, why would you? 

53:04
why would the market never correct to that? It will, is the real answer. Right. If, like, there's an edge that exists over a longer period of time, eventually the market is going to correct to that type of situation. So things of that nature are not viable strategies in the long run of like. Oh, I focus mainly on underdogs. I only bet this, I only bet that that's not going to get you anywhere. 

53:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I also don't like the fact that people, people look at the games and they let the result of the game dictate whether it was a good bet or not, not the actual pricing that they got pregame. So they'll look at something and be like, oh yeah, sure, I had the Cowboys and they lost, but like they almost won and like if this guy didn't fumble it they would have won. Like that's, that doesn't make it a good or bad bet. What makes it a good or bad bet is you had two and a half close. You had minus two and a half close, minus three juiced. You had a good price relative to the market. As soon as the game starts, bang, you're, you're done, your work is done. You, you got a great price. Now that bet over a million sample size is going to win. 

54:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if you, if you're going to talk and say like oh well, if this guy didn't fumble it, I'd be up on the year. As soon as you start talking about that. You've already lost. You're done Well to your point. 

54:16
Sample size matters, right, and I think a lot of people can get hung up on. You might make five bets on an NFL weekend. Let's take this past weekend in the NFL, for example. You might have bet Arizona minus four. They closed minus six and they lost. They didn't cover. You might have bet the 49ers as a pick-em they closed two-point favorites against Miami. They lose, they didn't cover. 

54:32
There's a lot of examples in the last week of NFL where sides got steamed and they didn't cover and you might in a vacuum say, ah, what the fuck? I got great numbers and I lost. But you've got to take a step back and say, well, this games five games, it's. It's an insignificant sample size and if you keep doing this over a long period of time the efficient market hypothesis you're going to win out at the end of the day. You keep getting good numbers, you're eventually going to win out over a longer period of time, so strive for that. Obviously you can use secondary metrics as well. We've had many guests on circlescles Off here. Talk about that. I like to do that for my NHL betting. I track what price I bet at, what the game closed at, but then also I use the expected goals from the game to derive a probability that my bet should have won as well. 

55:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, that's in originating. In originating, it's more important to actually see how the game's played out. But if you're just like market reading, you're just going after the pricing, don't, don't be, don't feel like you got slighted because you know yokich hit a thing and it sent it to overtime and then now you lost the under because it went to ot. Like sure you did get a bit unlucky but at the same time, like you, got the price. That's what's going to determine whether your bet's a winner or not Not. The way the game plays out is, I would even say it as far as to say go as far as to say, if you don't watch the game at all, you had no idea and you only were just exposed to the final score and the results. Meaning, if a game ended, an NBA game, you had under, you know, 221 and a half and it landed 260. It may have gone to overtime and maybe you lost in overtime, but or maybe you lost in double overtime, right, but whatever happens, happens, you lost in double OT. If you just get the box score like hey, it doesn't even say OT, not just okay, I lost, I had under one, uh, you know 221 and a half and it landed 260, you're, you're done. You can then just evaluate that and say, oh, but I did have a good price. 

56:31
Next time I'll probably win this bet. You know, it was a good thing. I'm not doing anything wrong. There we go. If you're going to go and with that mentality, you'll win. If you're going to watch all the games and then start adjusting your next games based on, oh, but this guy played good, this guy it ain't it, it's going to be very, very hard for you to continually win. Again, this is for numbers-based bettors who are doing that top-down approach or maybe news-based approach. If you're originating, then maybe there's something in the game that you're impacting, you're creating in your model that you might actually need to be watching for and adjusting. So in that scenario, sure, but in the top-down approach, I see too many people getting good prices and then complaining that the bets didn't go their way when in reality, like, the money was made when you made the click, not at the end of the game. 

57:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, um. Finally, I think for 2025, do your best to leverage tools and resources that can help you. I will share a personal story about me. But I was a losing better for a long period of time who thought that I was a winning better. There were several people in an online community called Seville who used to roast me on Twitter, basically called me an idiot. I would dismiss pretty much everything that they were saying because there was some hostility involved. 

57:41
And then, after a couple more years, I was able to be very real with myself and say you know what I'm not winning? Maybe I should start listening to the advice that I'm getting from other people, and I started to absorb as much information as possible from people that I consider to be sharp within the betting community. To this day, I still listen to Bet the Process with Rufus because Rufus might in a way, rufus likes to talk about himself, let me just put it that way he might reveal something that's a little bit maybe too revealing in a sense where I can pick up from that and I might learn from that. I try to absorb as much information and listen to as much content from other people that I know to be sharp as possible, because there's all these little tidbits that you might pick up and, in addition to that, whenever I hear of new resources that are available out there that might help me in any way, I'm always quick to look at them as well. For some people out there, that might be bet stamp, it might be unabated, it might be whatever it is that's out there, but you can check out these things that will make your life a lot easier and in a lot of cases, these things are free to use. There's bankroll management apps that are out there. There's bet tracking software that you can download and create your own Excel sheets, or you can leverage the bet stamp tools. 

59:02
There's all this stuff out there that's actually available to you that can help you learn that people are just focused on the wrong stuff. A lot of times they're listening to the podcasts that are spouting off. You know thanksgiving day trends for the nfl, which are not going to help you in any way. You have to define your own process and you have to be able to learn yourself. You're not going to just be able to rely on listening to content that's out there and winning forever. That's not going to happen. So that type of stuff. 

59:31
Um, there's resources in the form of books. Uh, logic of sports betting obviously is like a good starting point for anyone. Matt david down, ed miller. There's, um, you know, we had andrew mack on last week. Again he wrote introductory modeling in excel and r. You can leverage stuff like that, but there's, there is stuff that exists out there that you can leverage stuff like that. But there is stuff that exists out there that you can leverage if you look hard enough. And don't be dismissive of things that other people in the sharper community are saying. 

01:00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think oftentimes people they don't really know where to get started in a lot of these things, and I understand it's daunting, but you know, really the one thing I'd focus on for 2025, if you're in that, in that area is like, know where you stand, like, figure out right now. 

01:00:20
If you're listening to this podcast, if someone might've told you to listen to this, to get started, figure out where you stand. Do you have an edge? Yes, no, are you just betting Dgen for fun? If so, yes, let's go a different way. If not, let me figure out what is my edge. What do I got? Quantify that bankroll management, go through the list and then start to take it seriously or, at a minimum, just understand hey, I don't actually take this seriously, it's okay, I'm not gonna beat anything, I'm just betting for fun. Here you go. 

01:00:47
So I think the main thing when people are getting started is you know, don't worry about all this stuff, don't worry about everything right now. I know it's like it's a lot. Oh, I got to do this, I got to do this, I got to get, I got to buy these tools, I got to get this. I have to listen to this guy. I got to listen to all these podcasts. The starting point is just figure out where you are right now. Are you winning currently? Do you have an edge currently? And don't say, oh yeah, I'm up so far $6,000. But really you just hit an $8,000 parlay and then lost 900 bets for a dollar each. Sure, you may be up monetarily, but you're down back. 

01:01:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You gotta be real with yourself. Realistic expectations are important, right At the end of the day. Listen, if you've made it this far into the pod for this week, I would suspect you're committed to learning, and that is important. We have lots of old episodes here, whether that's guests, educational content, q&as that you can listen back to. One of my biggest sources of pride in doing this podcast is the DMs I get from people on Twitter who are like I found you three months ago. I binged every single episode and now I'm winning at betting, or now I understand, or I don't do this anymore because I realize that it's worthless. 

01:02:02
You have to commit to learning more and eventually, if you are serious about success, you have to treat your betting like it's a business in a way. And if and if, again, if you are serious about success, you have to treat your betting like it's a business in a way. And again, if you don't want to do that, that's fine. That's a different type of better. But commit to learning more. Treat betting like a business and kind of go through these steps that we've laid out today. Know what your edge is. Manage your bankroll, shop the best lines. Avoid falling into the stupid pitfalls and and traps. I say traps maybe the wrong choice of word, because it's not. I'm talking about the traps that the books are laying out for you. Use resources wisely. 

01:02:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All of that stuff seems very high level, but it's it, uh like absolutely will contribute to success in one way or another and and I have a final piece of advice in regards to this whole segment is, if you are betting and you start off with a little bit of money, okay, it is actually imperative that you do not take that money out of your bankroll. Okay, because we see too many times people will, you know, make $50,000 and then put $20,000 to go like, put a down payment for a car or something like that. And just if you're taking this seriously, I would strongly, strongly recommend leaving all of the money you make into your bankroll, because that's the way you're going to actually grow faster and taking, when you're, when you get from 25K to 100K, taking 75K out and going back to 25K is costing you so much money that 75K that you took out is stunting your growth to potentially be able to run from 100,000 up to a million. It's completely stunting your growth. So what you really need to do and I know people have, you know, sometimes living expenses and things like that, but if you want to be serious about this, you know, especially in the starting stages, until you've gotten to, let's say, a bankroll of I would I'm not even going to name a number but until you are no longer constrained by bankroll management and instead you are constrained by how much the sports book will let you bet. 

01:03:59
You should not be taking any amount of money out of your bankroll, and those who know will understand what I'm saying, um, and those who don't, there's an even better reason. Do not take any money out of your bankroll until you literally cannot bet enough because you want to bet more, but the book saying not no more, you can only bet this. Once you get to that point, then sure, feel free to start spending some money. Maybe, you know, buy some luxury stuff and enjoy, but until you get to that point, it's imperative to not be taking out 25K, 50k, 70k, buying all these things. It really does stunt you tenfold 2025 can be your year. 

01:04:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I say that in all sincerity. Success in betting is easy. If you make it easy and if you want to bet for fun, that's totally fine. But if you're disciplined, you put the effort, effort in, you listen to smart people in the space, you will have success. So best of luck in 2025. My dms on twitter are always open at rob pazola. I try to respond to every single one. You can message me at any single time. I also read every single comment that comes through on this channel, for better or for worse. Maybe I should stop. But seriously, if you have any questions, we like to incorporate them into Q&A episodes. I do answer them as well. Anything that's there, we're more than happy to answer. 

01:05:15
Speaking of 2025, circles Off is gonna undergo some changes for the new year. We are off next week. We'll be back with some fresh episodes at the beginning of 2025. One thing that we've done for a long time now is a weekly episode of Circle Back and Circles Off. That kind of has been the schedule. We're going to get away from that in 2025. 

01:05:41
I do want to let people know that You're accustomed to this episode dropping every Thursday 4 pm Eastern time. We're not going to go that route in the new year. There are plenty of reasons that I've chosen to go this way, but I don't get breaks during the year, if I'm being completely candid, and it can be challenging sometimes. So there's going to be months where we drop a lot of episodes. There's going to be sometimes two or three weeks where we don't drop an episode. 

01:06:12
I'm still committed to putting out the best content possible here on Circles Off, but I do want it to still feel fresh for me. And, yeah, like if we have two guests that can go back-to-back days and we can get two interviews out in short succession, we're gonna do it instead of holding onto this stuff so that we have to release it at certain times. So 2025, a little bit different Circle Back is gonna remain the same. We're having a lot of success with that show. I do enjoy doing it, as do the rest of our cast Seems like we're getting really good feedback. Youtube metrics are great. Listening metrics are great. Gonna lean heavily into that. You're also going to probably see some different lifestyle content coming up in the spring and summer here on circles off as well. More on that ahead, but also announcement from johnny quick announcement from you guys. 

01:07:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So rob and I started this podcast. I think it's been almost three years, so we did the first one at the uh the brady buck super bowl winner. Right before that was our first episode, the first one I the Brady Buck, super Bowl winner. 

01:07:09
Right before that was our first episode. That was the first one, I believe. So, yeah, so a while back. So we started this with the intention to basically create authentic and original content in the space, which we didn't feel existed at the time. I vaguely recall me sending Rob a PowerPoint outlining all of the content in the space and how for lack of a better word it was all dated and we weren't doing this and we weren't doing this and we put together a plan that would hopefully revolutionize the content in the sharp betting space. So it was something that, when we grew this podcast, we're extremely proud of. What this is right now, this is. This is an amazing channel. 

01:07:51
We have had a lot of copycats, a lot of people who now are, you know, putting up similar channels or trying to do educational content, and we're super happy that we were able to like lead the way on that, and we definitely wanted it to also be something that could be listened to like every week, any week. You don't have to have just like the whole you know, week two picks and then after that it's kind of garbage. So you can actually go back and I'm really proud of this. You can listen to every single episode that's currently on the YouTube, spotify, anywhere you listen, and you should be able to get at least a few pieces of value in every single episode, no matter when it was released, dating back to our first one over, you know, almost three years ago. So it's been an incredible past few years. But also a bit of an announcement here. It is, uh, it's time for me to step away from the pod as a as a permanent co-host here. So it's it's a tough call and I actually appreciate and uh, respect every single person, all the friendships I've made over the years from this podcast. It's been amazing, built so many relationships just from being on here and being alongside Rob Legitimately. There has been actually hundreds of instances where people have either messaged me or seen me in person and told me that this podcast has actually changed their life for the better, and when I say hundreds, I actually mean hundreds of times this has happened. So it's insane what we've been able to build. I will be back. It's not like I'm, you know, gone forever. I'm sure I'll be, you know, in and around here episode of Circle Backs and watch along stuff like that. But it's not going to be as consistent as it has been in the past, obviously. So everyone obviously in good hands with uh, with Rob here. 

01:09:34
I do want to give credit to everybody who has ever watched the show, like subscribe, shared it with a friend, left us a comment, shared us kind words or even shared a hate comment. It's all good. I want to say, like thank you for being a part of it. Um, producer Zach he's not actually here but uh, you know he stepped away as well but was amazing working with him and uh, you know he, he made the audio and video quality so much better than what it was. He really did step up the show. Producer jacob I mean, he's already actually better than zach because he's actually updating that show, since rob said he's actually updating that zach just left it it at zero. So I'm sure Jacob will be a great producer. And, of course, robby Pozzola, my good buddy. I have to say genuinely thanks for everything you've taught me, not just from this podcast, but even before then. 

01:10:21
It is crazy to think about, but I don't actually know what my life would look like if I never met you years ago. It would definitely be a lot worse than it is now, but I don't even know what I would be doing. I may. I may not even be betting, I might not be in the betting space, I may not have all the like. It's. It's crazy. 

01:10:39
I owe a lot to Rob. He is, uh, he is one of the best in the biz. I would even say as far as when it comes to sports betting content and I'll time stamp this just in case someone better comes along in the future, entering 2025 there is actually nobody better in the sports betting content game than rob pazola and I, and I mean that genuinely, because he doesn't just like a lot of the guys that you listen to, and I mean this with full sincerity. They don't. They don't walk the walk, they talk, talk the talk, and it's nice and whatever. But Rob is actually a genuinely good, better, he's a sharp guy. You give him an account. He'll find all these edges, he'll figure out how to win. He does win a lot. He's won for a number of years. 

01:11:19
He's doing the content stuff because he enjoys it and, quite frankly, obviously enjoys it a lot more than guys like me or some of the others in the space, and that's why he does this. But he is actually. He doesn't need to be doing this. He does this in addition to being one of the top bettors in the world, not so he can supplement his income and make another whatever couple grand here and there. And obviously, rob, you guys are in good hands with him. He's carried the show and you guys are in good hands with whoever is going to be on here as a co-host is going to be uh, just a mere formality. As you have, rob pazola, that the a1 I. I do want to come back for sure for the episode and and hang up the 100k subs plaque when we get here one day. When we do get that, I will come back and hang it. Just as we started the channel. I gotta be here to hang that up for sure yeah, I think. 

01:12:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, we'll get some comments about favorite Johnny memories, but certainly the Johnny versus Fezzik episode has to be up there. 

01:12:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
My masterpiece, that was my masterclass everybody. Yeah, that was your masterclass. 

01:12:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There you go. Masterclasscom slash Rob Pozzola. No pressure, by the way, if you ever want to check it out, but if you're interested in sports betting you can check that out. Yeah, it was a pleasure doing the show with you. Obviously, I think some people know the writing's been on the wall a little bit, with you being in and out. Um, there's going to be a few changes to circles off. I may retire the uh, the closing question that we asked the guests at some point and change that up a little bit. Plus ev, minus ev is gonna stick around, though, good, and we might as well might as well go out on a plus EV, minus EV for this week. 

01:12:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, I don't even have a great one. 

01:12:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Mine are definitely not good either, but it's not about I mean. Nothing can be worse than the first. 

01:12:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll say my last one, but it's not going to be my last one because it's just. I'm just, you know, temporarily leaving for a bit and I All right this is to everyone who's probably younger than me out there listening this is going to be a very controversial one, okay. So you have to take it the right way here. Diversification is actually for morons, okay. You don't want to diversify when you're young. It is the opposite of what you want to do. 

01:13:37
If you found something good, you made money in sports betting, you've made a lot of money, you have a good edge. You got a double, triple, quadruple, quintuple down on that one thing. Make that your thing, make that your identity, go all in and be the best in the world. If you start to say, oh, I made a bit of money from sports betting, I'm going to take a hundred thousand, buy a house and put a down payment for a house. That way, I have that house for whatever happens. 

01:14:01
What you're essentially doing is not believing in yourself, and I understand about having a backup plan and all this stuff, but if you really are the man, if you are the nuts and you're the guy, you go all in on yourself. None of this investing. I'm going to put some money in the stock market, I'm going to put some money in crypto, I'm going to put some money in this, I'm going to put some money in housing and then I'm going to have a diversified life and I'm going to be set for life that doesn't exist. You double down. The best investment is in yourself. If you find success in something, you go all in to that one thing. Make it your identity and win and try to. You may not accomplish it. Try to be the best person in the entire world at that exact thing and it is controversial advice. I know a lot of people. 

01:14:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's my plus EV move of the year you gave out the credit card one once. There's nothing more controversial than that. 

01:14:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Than what. 

01:14:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The credit card advice of using the credit cards to get like a little bit of extra bonus money for betting. They're like specific gambling. 

01:14:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No it wasn't that, it wasn't the gambling cards. I just said use it, use like arb credit card bonuses. It's like just a good way you know you should be signing up every couple months. Get a new one, get the five percent cash back, then it goes down to one get the new card. But anyways, that's I said. I said that's only if you're younger and trying to grind down a couple extra bucks, that was. 

01:15:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't support those gambling credit card rules. 

01:15:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But this is my plus V move of the year and the reason I say it is because at this current moment in my life that's something that I feel like you know I could have done a lot better when I was younger maybe 20, 22, 24. 

01:15:31
And I do wish I can go back and change a lot of the aspects of life that I made in some mistakes I made in that exact thing. But the one thing when I really look back at the last 10 years of my life and if I could go back five years and talk to a previous version of myself, that is 100% what I would say I would say fuck everything else that anybody tells you You're the man you go in 100%, all in, triple down, quadruple down, quintuple down until you're the best in the world at whatever it is you wanna be. And that's advice that I'm living my life by right now. But had I had that when I was 20, 25, I think it would have been life-changing for me at that time. So that's my Plus EV move of the year and hopefully it goes out with a bang there. 

01:16:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, it's a holiday season. I hope for those who celebrate you had a Merry Christmas yesterday. For me, plus, ev Move is regularly calling your parents, your grandparents or other older relatives just to check in and see what's going on. We talk about ROI. In betting a lot, I believe in something that I call the emotional ROI, but strengthening your relationships with people around you and, you know, establishing and having those meaningful connections goes a long way. Also, these people have especially if they're older have a lot more wisdom than you do and I'm pretty arrogant and cocky sometimes, but I'll admit that I don't know it all and sometimes, just talking to other family members about things, you get valuable perspectives that you just don't have People who've lived through similar experiences to you. So, yeah, just do it. I think it's great to check in with other people. It's good for your own personal sanity from the emotional ROI perspective and you get another in with other people. It's good for your own personal sanity from the emotional ROI perspective and you get another perspective from other people as well. On the minus EV end, I just moved this is kind of like a dig at my wife, so I don't really want to say it too loud but minus EV move. 

01:17:33
Buying cheap tools or appliances to save money, just don't do it. First of all, it's a higher long-term cost anyways, because the shit breaks down quicker. It doesn't function the way that you need to. It causes a lot of stress. There's like a frustration tax associated with buying like really shitty stuff. It's not me by nature. Listen to each their own. Sometimes you buy what you can afford. I totally get that. 

01:18:02
But a reliable, well-made appliance or tool can improve your life so much more than you ever know. Like you don't think about the little things of and this is just random, by the way of like going to your fridge every day and using the water dispenser. That's on it and it works properly. Or the ice machine just works and you want a drink and you don't have some frozen grapes in the freezer. You want to throw a couple ice cubes in, you throw them in. The ice dispenser works. All that cheap alternatives they just don't match. So that's my minus ev of the week for some. You bet you buy within your limits, just like you bet within your limits, but if you can afford to get something that is going to make you happy and not cause you long-term stress, hey, hey, that's not bad advice. 

01:19:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not bad advice. I can't stand stuff breaking and me having to fix it. As you know, right now I'm a renter. I don't own the home that I live in, and the reason for that is just-. 

01:19:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, you don't want to go to your bankroll. 

01:19:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, no, yeah that, but no, in general. The main reason is this is, I guess, another plus TV move I've always believed in is like you don't have to own the home that you live in. There's a lot of benefits to doing that, but there's also a lot of drawbacks. If you rent the home you live in, there's a lot of benefits. Obviously you can't just like say, oh, you're going to do nothing with that money. But in general if you rent your home like everything's covered in terms of, like you know, maintenance, stuff, like that something breaks, you know you are able to kind of get everything fixed without having to dip out of pocket or without even having to just deal with it. 

01:19:50
So I'm more of a. I'm more of a rent now. But it's also mainly because I enjoy the flexibility. You know it might be here for a year and then somewhere else and then a year after that and yada, yada, yada, and I don't have to really do it. But when I do eventually own the home I live in, you best believe I'm taking that advice especially with, especially with the small things. I don't want it's too much hassle to have stuff breaking all the time. I'd rather just do it good once and avoid a lot of the repairs down the road. 

01:20:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, listen, you got to get like an extra toaster that has four slots instead of two and it's going to cost you like another 40 bucks, but you can put four slices of bread there instead of having to pop into and then wait another few minutes for just get to spend the 40 bucks and get the four toast. You know, you know what I'm getting at. Like, there's these little things. You just just think it through from your own perspective. 

01:20:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
By the way, that's not the real life example I'm just it's actually unbelievably how cheap certain things are and like where you look at it, you're like, oh, this has to be bad quality, Like this thing can't be $6.99. This can't be $8. 

01:20:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And you, you could still price shop too, Like if you, if you have something and you're like're like, wow, I'd really like to get that. Wait for it to go on sale, wait for boxing day in canada, black friday, whatever, you can still price shop and things of that nature. Just because it's cheap doesn't mean it's bad, but but avoid cheap. 

01:21:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I bought a blender once on boxing day for like 1999, and obviously within the first year the blade fell off while I was making a shake, and to which I I said, ah, this was only $20. So I deserve this. 

01:21:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But then you had to go out and get another blender. 

01:21:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually I never I never got another blender. That's it, that was it. That was the last shake. 

01:21:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I ever made. See, that's, literally, that's literally me, though I'm like no, I don't even need that now. 

01:21:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't even need that blender. So yeah, it is what it is. We're off the rails here. Jacob, you got a plus EV, minus EV. 

01:21:39 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Yeah, my plus EV move of the week, kind of hearing Rob talk about his late Christmas shopping. I think Christmas shopping should be done on Black Friday. That, like your entire Christmas shopping list, should be repaired in advance and done on Black Friday. Number one you don't have to worry about it again for the rest of the month for any of December. Number two you get better prices by doing it at Black. 

01:22:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Friday. Or you could just play an eight-game parlay and do a printout and send out that to everyone and say they got a piece of the parlay. 

01:22:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's actually good for a friend's Christmas. 

01:22:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I come around on that a lot. 

01:22:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, I don't mind. Also, I'm now the guy for Christmas. I don't for like little cousins and stuff Cash. Just you know I don't like it. 50 bucks, 100 bucks an envelope. It's all done, All good. 

01:22:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can get whatever they want. 

01:22:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They can get whatever they want. I agree to get him a gift, but if they're like 15 yeah cash. 

01:22:36
They're gonna actually appreciate that more. Anyways, plus saves the work. I don't mind being that guy. I can be. I can be the guy who gives out just an envelope with a thing in it and uh, definitely, as we mentioned before, don't get someone a shitty gift card with chris is coming up. Don't get him a gift card to a shitty place that they don't want to shop at. Get them cash. You're not saving any money and we we brought this up before stop getting shitty gift cards it's true, just give them cash. 

01:23:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you're gonna get a shitty gift card, at least they have the option of where they're gonna spend cash is better than a gift card. Yeah, come on dude. 

01:23:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know some gift cards are technically as good as cash. I'll give you that some of them you receive like all right, I will use this this year. That's okay. But you cannot be getting guys gift cards bro to to these places. 

01:23:18 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
They're not going to shop the only like what would be other than like a coffee shop. What would be an example of a gift card that somebody's like definitely going to just carry around at all times and use it? 

01:23:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
okay, amazon uber, you load those into your account. 

01:23:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You'll use them, okay, obviously maybe you don't use a thousand dollars in uber, but you might you don't use $1,000 in Uber, but you might Don't get me a bed bath and be on gift card. 

01:23:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, enough, enough with those Like serious, don't do not. I'll tell you what to not get. Don't get someone a Subway gift card. All right, I know they got the deal, I'll buy a sub, get the gift card. I don't want that. That makes it worse because, like, like you know, they only got that gift because they got. Don't get somebody a subway, the one I used to get when I was a kid. That used to drive me insane. I, when I used to get an hmv gift card, remember what that was. 

01:24:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Compact discs man. I used to get hmv every day you can get cds. 

01:24:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wasn't even a big music guy. I was right on the end of when cds were even a thing I had. I was care. I think I might have been carrying around a $50 HMV gift card for three years without spending. 

01:24:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That would have been a great gift for me back in the day when I moved recently. I purged a lot. I brought almost nothing with me. I refused to throw out my CDs. That's fair. 

01:24:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Those are part of your life. I still have a box of. 

01:24:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
CDs that I just cannot part with, no matter what. I will never listen to them again, ever. I don't even own a compact disc player anymore. I literally can't. 

01:24:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, you can't throw those out. Those are part of your life. They are. 

01:24:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Every time I see them, they actually just bring me joy in some way. 

01:24:49 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
That makes it worth having. 

01:24:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, just seeing them, but that was the only thing I couldn't get rid of. 

01:25:02 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I have old video games that I will certainly never play, but I love those things. Yeah, there's something could not part with my sake my old consoles. They're at my parents house, my dad's like what are you doing with your xbox 360? I'm like you cannot get rid of that. I don't know what I what I'm going to do with it, but one day I'll fire it up. 

01:25:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah don't, I'm not throwing out my xbox, my regular xbox, regular that that thing. You know how many games you never got red ringed. No, I it's. 

01:25:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I still have it in New York was there even a ring on the yeah, on the little thing. I got red ringed and I never got it fixed. I just gave up on. 

01:25:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm still well, who knows, it might not even work. 

01:25:28 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I haven't played it in years and we sent it in and it got fixed yeah, I know it would got red ringed on the original xbox. 

01:25:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was years after all this time. 

01:25:38 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
So I was like you know what it's done I 

01:25:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
think that's it. I think this is a sign at that. Fair enough, yeah I I got. 

01:25:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have so many games that I'll I'll certainly never play again. Like what are the chances I ever toss nhl06 with vinnie lecavier on the cover into my regular xbox and play it on wired controller? There's just no way I have the way I have the exact same, but that's just like that's part of my childhood. I can't throw that game on you. 

01:26:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can't, sometimes you can. I got my NHL 97 Sega cartridge with John Van Biesbroeck. There you go. That was a legend. I can't get rid of it. 

01:26:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll never play it again, but I can. You know I I used to know who was on the cover for every NHL. But then now, like the past, like Just turned into a blur at some point the past eight years. I just didn't follow because I stopped getting the games. But I can name like every guy, like you can name a year and I would tell you Try one, give me one. 

01:26:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I can't verify Name a year Any NHL. 

01:26:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Back in the day. I don't want to was actually a very tricky one. So 04 started off with Danny Heatley on the cover, but then he got in that accident. And then he got in that accident and then they replaced it and then they put on Joe Sackick. That is correct. 

01:26:50 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Yes, wow, I even gave him an accidental curveball and he still got it Accidental curveball. 

01:26:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, danny the Heat Dog, but then they put on Joe Sackick. But yeah, I used to know all the covers. 

01:26:58 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Man, that's a nice one Minus EV move of the week is, I think, in general, dieting. But dieting around Christmas is just so minus EV. It's like one week of the year Don't go to Christmas dinner and say I can, can't have dessert or I can only have one plate. Like listen, one week is not gonna change your life. Enjoy yourself. Enjoy the memories Like you mentioned, like calling parents, calling family and stuff like that. Like these are like really good memories that you have once a year. So just go and enjoy yourself. Don't worry about all that stuff at this time of year. Don't be a nuisance to anybody else or you know, if you seriously have to, don't make it a topic at dinner either that you're not having this because of a diet. 

01:27:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know what you're saying. Don't make it awkward. 

01:27:54 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Don't be on some health kick, and if you really have to be, don't make it anybody else's business. 

01:27:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, try it. Try like a little bit of the tiramisu. 

01:28:02 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
you know Be like oh, it's a smaller piece, I'm kind of full but give it a go One day is not going to ruin your health, kick or whatever it is. 

01:28:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Enjoy your week, I like that Telling your in-laws to put the Chief Steelers game out in the background during Christmas lunch. Like me, don't be that guy. 

01:28:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, are we closing off? Here we are. I want to leave everybody with one thing Sure, 2024, if it wasn't your year, that's all good. You're going to get back. You're going to get all the money back in 2025. If you actually work at it and grind it out, don't expect things to change unless you're actually changing. But if you do, best of luck to everybody. If anyone needs to contact me, you can do it through Betstamp, dms, circles Off DMs. Send us an email. I'm sure it'll find its way to me. Thank you everyone for the love and support and peace. Thanks for watching.