00:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to circles off episode number 65. You got number 65, eric carlson wow, of course, eric carlson. 

00:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I got a better, a much better player you got a 65. 

00:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, maple leaf's legend, ilia mckeah, ilia mckeah yes, uh, once you get into the higher numbers, it's way harder, obviously. 

00:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Carlson, though he was at one point yeah he was a great player. 

00:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He was the best player in the world for a period of time. 

00:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

00:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I actually have an Eric Carlson jersey that I used to wear for exclusively outdoor puck playing. For those who don't know what that is Canadians, yeah, okay, okay, we're gonna get roasted. Uh, outdoor hockey on the pond. Um, just, you know, bring the sticks, bring the gloves, bring the skates, put on an old jersey and play some shinny, as we call it. Uh, so yeah, I had a carlson jersey because at the time I was like a big fan of him and he would go like end to end and he had the flow and everything. But I couldn't actually I legitimately could not bring myself to get to buy an ottawa senator's jersey ever. So I got the carlson team sweden yellow jersey, which was oh, that's, sick, yeah, that's a better jersey anyways than this, and I would never be caught in a censor. 

01:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A habs jersey I um, I got invited to a senatorators playoff game it was the semifinals years ago from a friend of mine in Ottawa. It was Senators-Penguins playoff game in Ottawa. They play in Kanata, out in the middle of nowhere. I took the train to Ottawa on the day of and I went in like I don't know, I was dressed in business attire. I showed up at my buddy's house and he tosses me a Sens jersey. I'm like Ies me a Sens jersey. I'm like I'm not wearing this. He's like no, you got to wear this. Like we're going to be in a section with a bunch of Sens fans. Like I'll never put that on in my life. He's like you're going to go to the game in like that dress, shirt and blazer. Like I hate the Sens, I mean, but it was the most miserable experience of my life. 

02:09
Ottawa scored like four goals in the first 10 minutes of the game. They smashed Pittsburgh in the game. I was distraught being there. Like just think about it for anyone out there. Like if you showed up to a playoff game for your rival team. They smoked the opponent. Everyone's having like a blast. You're just there and you you can't get in. Like you should be having fun with everyone, but you can't. 

02:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's just so depressing yeah, no good, definitely no good. Um. So, rob, today what we want to get into is uh, nfl season is rapidly approaching. It is, some would say, right around the corner. Can I say that the office today was absolutely electric. 

02:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A lot of this is because football is coming around the corner and people are getting excited. Also, I mean it's completely non-football related, but we did a pinata picks today again, which we've talked about on this podcast before, and, um, johnny missed the first pinata picks. 

03:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He was well he did his first one ever last weekend, true, and we won. 

03:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I usually abstain. I went in last weekend we popped the pinata pick. Three golfers, one of which patrick cantley, cash cash it, so everyone in their office is happy. Um, it's a good amount of money as well, one for everyone. And uh, this week I actually missed the first one and these guys got john rom. So I had to negotiate a deal with rob to buy in some shares. And then, um, we, we pressed for a second and we got scotty scheffler. 

03:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So now we are rolling scheffler and rom this weekend to make it two pinata picks in a row it's actually amazing because we have people in the office that could care less about golf who are all sweating. On sunday last week, our telegram our bet stamp telegram chat, was going wild with the amount of people watching. Scheffler in the bunker on eight, not, scheffler can't be in the bunker on 18 absurd, by the way. I watch internet. I stream internet, right. I pay for. I don't pay for actual cable, so I'm 30 seconds behind everyone. I know the outcome of every result, but I'm trying to act like in real time. I know what's going on, just to be part of the conversation, which is hilarious. You gotta go you gotta. 

04:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you're like final hole, then you can do that, but if not, you gotta go on Twitter and find the tracker am sep strokka. 

04:21 - Zack Phillips (Other)
There's a sep strokka tracker he was one of our golfers last week this reaction of last weekend just got so much funnier to me because I didn't even think about that until you just said it now and I can remember one specific shot me and jacob immediately messaged the group and was like what a shot and rob replies instantly. That was incredible and knowing that you hadn't even seen it yet now yeah like let's fucking go. 

04:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know like I'm like, all right, let's go. I don't know, I did. 

04:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, like I watched everything happen. I just watched it about 15 to 20 seconds after, you know, so I knew that it was a great shot out of the bunker there and I'm typing like amazing shot, incredible shot. 

05:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I had no idea yeah, I gotta be honest, I wasn't actually watching either, because I was at an event. I was an event, but I was rapidly following twitter, which is a fast source right. 

05:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's quick, it's real time essentially, but that was really fun. I just wanted, I just wanted everyone to win. Yeah, it's, it's. It's a great feeling. You know that's. We were gonna wait for you today to do the. The. Uh, john, you know the john rom we Rahm ends up being like 12 to 1 to win the tournament. We have him at 25 to 1, which is great. What was funny, though? I mean, I'm not here to throw a sports book under the bus, but it's actually hilarious when we did draw Scotty Scheffler, no one had any idea what was going on, because we hit the button to get the random bet and it says Scott draw Scheffler, and we're like what? Like, everyone took like 10 seconds to process what was happening, till we realized that because he has the word tie at the end of his name scotty t-i-e at the end, it automatically changed tie to draw, because they must have some like automatic rules that do that in their system so we have scott draw scheffler, uh, at 25 to 1, when he should be 2 to 1. 

06:12
We did press a little bit on some belgian grand prix, pinata stuff. What's our net? 

06:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
position there not good, not good really bad first. 

06:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, so we're pressed on um what lap will the first retirement of the race be? So we have 21 completed laps and 27 completed laps, so we need 22 or 28 for the first retirement of the race, and that's 44 laps yeah, it's 44 laps so halfway through the race possible. 

06:40 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It could happen. 

06:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You never know it's, it's just not. We don't really have good positions there we we joke about these a lot. 

06:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Honestly, they're a lot of fun, but just for everyone out there, by the way, like this is not for like any, any amounts of like real money that we're putting up in terms of this is more like just like a fun thing around the office, um, just to like be there with the, with the people here and um and do them. But yeah, I wouldn't recommend like betting these seriously for a lot of money we know that there. 

07:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We know that, like the likelihood of obtaining positive expected value is very low. There is, however, fun to the randomness, like we could honestly just go out and bet a golfer. 

07:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Every it's two bet sweats because you get a sweat on the actual spin to see who you got and if you got good value, and then you sweat that guy out for the week like the for dgen fund. 

07:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For about half the year, we were betting golfers that we wanted to bet at the best prices, which is fine. We end up with a lot of good positions, but it's just not as fun as everyone around hoping we get a good golfer, clicking that randomized button, essentially, and then actually getting a good golfer. It is really depressing, though, when you get like aaron wise, you know well, it is what it is and you have to press, but definitely the vibe in the office today electric. 

07:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We do have afternoon soccer and baseball happening um rob almost lost 40 grand trying to win a quarter. 

08:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, first of all, first of all, yeah, so I mean no, you didn't almost lose wait what? Was the game, it was a yeah, so it's over they did get a run they 14-2 final braves, they got a second run. Braves are up 14 nothing on the pirates going into the ninth inning and a co-worker offered me 40, what like one 10 000 you plus, he offered you 40,001. Opposite way. I had to pay one to 40,000. 

08:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, so he offered 25 cents a quarter a legit quarter, not 250 bucks an actual quarter Yep For 10 grand 10 grand. 

08:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I had to risk $10,000 to win a quarter on the Atlanta Braves going into the ninth inning up 14-0. There has never been a 14-run comeback in the history of Major League Baseball Ever, let alone in the ninth inning, very large sample size. 

08:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you bet that, we would have been sweating because Kevin Newman homered to lead off the inning, they had a ground out and then a single double and a walk. They had the bases juiced one out down by 13. I can assure you, homered to lead off the inning, they had a ground out and then a single double and a walk. 

09:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They had the bases juiced one out down by 13 I can assure you you would not have been sweating, that I would not have been sweating not only did I literally 10 grand to win 25 cents. 

09:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You wouldn't have felt like embarrassed well, I listen. 

09:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Obviously, if I lost that bet, which was not going to happen, it would have been a game over for betting. The odds were extremely in my favor. Let's put it that way like what are the actual, true odds of a team making a comeback in major league baseball? Down 14 to nothing, headed into the ninth inning? 

09:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
let me see where they were in the order as well. I just want to get it has to be in excess of 250 000 to one like it's human bats okay, they were batting the two out of the two slot, if that factors in okay, it does like in a very small way they're pinch hitting. 

09:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The problem is they have to get to that part of the order like two times over. They're gonna have to go through the bottom of the lineup twice. Correct, like, correct this was not gonna happen. 

10:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. In fact I stand corrected the way the position at which they were starting. 

10:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The order is largely irrelevant when it's 14 yeah, well, I mean, you want your better batters to get more bats, but no, like it's actually irrelevant, because the number two hitter, which is newman, let's say so. 

10:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You homers lead off, then you can get 13 more runs. I guess in a tie, plus two outs and some of their 15 batters 16, he wouldn't even bat three times. 

10:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it's done, it doesn't matter like I'm trying to think he can't physically bat three times. I'm trying to think of other sport equivalents, right, honestly, I think it's like you have a team that's up 42, nothing heading into the fourth quarter of an nfl game, maybe even, honestly, it might even be higher than that, like 49, nothing where the other team needs seven touchdowns and a bunch of extra points. 

10:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like that's what I really think is an equivalent but it's never over in baseball, because the time is not on your. The time is not a factor, the time the game could go theoretically go on forever. 

11:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is what my wife said. This is what my wife diana says to me when we go to a. I'm not going to a baseball game. I'm like why not? She's like the game could actually go on forever. I'm like it's not, it's not going to go on forever. She's like, yes, but like it could it could in hockey too, in playoffs it could, yeah, it could in any sport in playoffs right in playoffs it could. 

11:18
But she's like that's why I like to go watch other games, because you know that there's an end point. I'm like, yeah, but there is an end point in baseball, it's the amount of outs. You know it's there is an end point. But she's like, yeah, but it could be like what if all the pitchers get hurt? And I'm like, well, then we'll just leave the game like we don't have to stick around until the very end, last pitch of the game how far? 

11:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
what's the longest you ever stayed at a baseball game? 

11:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
18 or 19 innings. It was a jay's game, did for a double header they did not score a run. Neither team scored a run over the course of like 10 innings yeah, but you're committed at that, and if you stay, 15 innings you're committed. 

11:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Jay's canada day game yeah, I was there. I was right behind the the uh bullpen and justin smoke hit a home run right in front of me. I was on tv and then, uh, I think they were playing the braves they scored a run 1-1, 19 innings. It was like who won? Uh, I can't even remember, to be honest with you uh, years, years ago. 

12:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it was the year that pittsburgh played nashville in the stanley cup final. I went to pittsburgh for game two of that series, but that was a night game and the pirates were playing in the afternoon. I'd never been to pnc park before I was with a friend of mine. I'm like this is supposed to be a great ballpark, let's go catch the pirates game. So we did. Pirates diamondbacks sat second row behind the d-backs dugout. Paul goldschmidt good dude, at the time at least, I thought so. I'll elaborate. But essentially he hit a game tying home run with two outs in the ninth inning to extend the game into extra innings. After he hits the home run it goes into a rain delay. Game would have been over. We got like an hour rain delay. I'm with my buddy who doesn't want to leave. He's like let's just stick it out. We're here, like what are we going to do in between? Stanley Cup final game is, you know, a few hours away. We're just going to go back to hotel or Airbnb. I'm like, all right, let's. 

13:15
So we waited out this rain delay. We watched a bunch of extra innings go up in, like the top of the 14th or 15th. I'm like, okay game's gonna end. No, the pirates tied it up in the bottom of that inning as well, ended up leaving that game to go directly from there, which was a one o'clock start to the stanley cup finals, so I would have missed the start. That's how long the game ended up being so. That's kind of the longest I've really waited it out where I I would have just at that point stuck it out to the end. 

13:44
But I do get the frustration, especially if it's outdoor stadiums, like we're in Toronto. We have a dome, we have, like it's going to rain is close a dome. We don't have to wait for delays. But those outdoor games, yeah, I wonder, like I always see after like the three hour rain delay, the poncho, yeah, yeah, no, but you have like a three-hour delay, literally, and they come back from the game. The stadium's empty, but there's like 100 people there. Like who are these 100 people that are just waiting out there in three? 

14:10 - Zack Phillips (Other)
hours. They just love the game. 

14:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They just want to move down seats, right. They're like yeah, you know what, let's wait it out, we can get closer to the game if it starts again. Or they just really love the game. They don't want to go home to their family that could be another thing too. Like it's like oh man, I can go home. I'm gonna have to put the kid to sleep or it's. 

14:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Either it's one of three things love of the game, money on the game, which is another big one, or they just don't want to go home to their family. 

14:35
Very possible, but uh yeah, all right, let's get into some nfl stuff. Uh, the the meat and potatoes of the episode, as we'll call it. What we wanted to do today was nfl's rapidly approaching, as mentioned around the corner. As mentioned, we want to be prepped for it. We want you guys to be prepped for nfl season as well. 

14:53
Um, undoubtedly best time of the year for sports bettors. You got the nfl starting, which is the best, the best sport to bet on, bar none, and on top of that you got college football in and then, just right around the corner from that, you now have nba, nhl, everything firing back up again. Mlb playoffs you still got your mma events. You got some soccer. You got all the rest of the stuff in there. Can't miss time of the year. 

15:16
So how do you get prepped for that? We're going to talk kind of about how that um that goes for rob and I, because a lot of the times for sports bettors, when you're looking at getting prep, um, it's, it is a lot of stress and it's like holy shit, I got, I have all this stuff to do and there's only like a week or two left, and stuff like that. So we want to talk about um things that you might want to try starting a new nfl season to become better at betting, but then also, you know things that you might want to get prepped ahead of time, as we're just just over two weeks out from that first Sunday. 

15:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know that the first Sunday of the NFL year this is a true story because it happens every single year I'm in a WhatsApp group with all of my closest friends. They're all going to give me some sort of pain story about depositing into a sportsbook on the Sunday. Be like, oh this sportsbooks down, I can't place bets, I can't get money in. Like you have so much time in advance to get everything ready for nfl season, don't wait. Don't be that guy that waits till the first sunday at noon to to deposit into a sports book and try to place your bets. Like that's the most frustrating. Every year. I give them the same spiel every single year like how are? 

16:20
How is this possible that after all these years of knowing me, you're still waiting until 12 noon on week one of NFL Sunday? Or it's the Thursday night football game, like five minutes before. There's a lot of traffic on these sites at this time, a lot of deposits being processed, so on and so forth. Just get everything set up beforehand. Like that's the starting point, really right? Is me and Johnny both bet in different ways For me? 

16:48
I'm always looking for as much liquidity as possible for football, so I'm going to get all my ducks in a row going into season saying like I can get a bet here for this amount, I can get a bet here for this amount, I can get a bet here for this amount. But even for someone who's not looking to bet, you know crazy amounts of money on NFL. You really should be starting with what your bankroll is going to be for NFL season and then starting to distribute it amongst different sports books. And even if you're a guy that can't afford to put money into 20 different books, don't put in 20 different books, but at least give yourself a fighting chance and put into four or five different books that have different odd sets so that whenever you're going to go place a bet, you can reduce the vig on that and you're all set up and ready to go for the season yeah, we should clip this for sure. 

17:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Make a plan for nfl season. Everyone, you're going to bet nfl season. We know you're going to bet nfl season. You know you're going to bet nfl season. Make a plan now, while the season is still hasn't started yet. And in that plan, what you need to include is mainly three things. Number one is how much am I putting in this season? 

17:50
You don't want to go beyond your means. You definitely don't want to dunk a bunch of money. For some people it's 10 grand. For some people it's one grand. For some people it's a hundred bucks. Whatever it might be five bucks, doesn't matter. Set aside the money and say, okay, this is how much I have for this football season. 

18:04
From there, you then need to set aside, as Rob mentioned, what sports books are going to put that in. So once you know how much money you're in you're in for, you can ask us Come talk to us. We'll help you. We're helping people set up this year for sure. We're definitely explaining a lot more about how sports betting works this season within some of our bet stamp setup session. So feel free to reach out on twitter if you want to join one of those. 

18:26
Uh, we can definitely help you guys get set up on the right combination, the best combination of sports books. 

18:32
So you might want like three separate odd sets, or maybe you want to do some live betting, you want to do some in play. You're going to get on a few different sports books and then we will try to help you make sure that your bankroll is evenly distributed amongst that. But that's the first step. Before you even figure out, most people go crazy Like what am I going to bet on? Whose plays am I buying? Who am I going to tail? Wonder if Pazola is doing a show again? I can bet. Before you do any of that, main things how much money are you going to put into this? And then, secondly, what sports books are you going to use and set them all up now, as Rob mentioned, no sense to actually go through and wait until Sunday morning of the first week because you're going to be scrambling, you're not going to get your deposit in on time, you're going to bet at bad prices, you're going to be frustrated, you're just going to have a bad Sunday. 

19:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, everyone has their different motives for NFL season, right, and they have different things that they like to bet, different things they like to do. People, they, you might want to extract as much as you possibly can out of bonuses before the season starts and get a lot of bonus dollars to play with. That's completely fine. Um, for some people, they might be looking for a book that is heavily focused towards player props or game props or whatever. So, like johnny said, you got to set a plan for yourself, right? It doesn't take a whole lot of work to do the research. We can assist in that as well. For sure, betstamp DMs always open on Twitter as well. 

19:48
However, set a plan, figure out what you're going to do. You want different odd sets. You want to be able to bet the stuff that you want to bet. Like, don't go depositing into a book that doesn't post their props until a day later than every other book. If you're a props better, that logically doesn't make a whole lot of sense for you. So, um, really plan it out beforehand, like you would do with pretty much anything else in life, but for sure, around football season especially, you can take advantage of the bonuses. We've talked about this many times before. There's a lot of sports books that are competing for your dollar and they're going to offer lucrative bonuses. It's it's free money, essentially like you know if you have. 

20:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you have money in one book right now, great, that's one of your books, perfect. Now is the best time to try multiple books. Try another three to four for this football season. Undoubtedly, some of those books gonna be dog shit. It is what it is. Some of those books are going to be dog shit. It is what it is. Some of them are going to be so trash. 

20:47
You're going to be like I hate this book, had trouble depositing, got my bonus, but then I had to submit my ID to get my money out, all this stuff. Oh well, so be it. You're going to learn that's one hassle book and then the other three might be amazing. And now you have those three in your rotation. So figure it out and then at the very minimum, at least you're getting bonus from all these books right now to build that bankroll. 

21:08
So if you're saying at the start hey, I'm putting in two grand for NFL, that's my budget, um, you might be able to take advantage of a one grand deposit match right off the rip, a two 50 deposit match right off the rip for some someone else, and you can probably at least double that bankroll to start. So if you're putting in two grand, you're probably starting with around four grand net expected value roughly, and that makes a big deal out of it. If you're just using your same sportsbook and you reload two grand, you start with two. If you try a few new ones, start with four. Now, pretty much doesn't matter how shit you are of a better, you can still make money this season, even if you're dunking on parlays, same game, parlays, futures, whatever, you're still going to make money in theory and expected value, because you just started with 2X bankroll versus one. 

21:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep Agreed. So I mean this is just common bankroll management techniques. At the beginning, starting point like we said, figure out what you can put in play. I mean, we can't preach it enough, but you never want to be risking money that you can't afford to risk. Sounds like common sense, but it's probably the biggest mistake that people make in the first place. I think probably the biggest mistake is people risk a certain amount of money to start and they think that there's no possible chance that they can lose all that money, when in reality there is a chance. You can lose that money, especially if you're not disciplined, especially if you start chasing losses. So figure out what you can afford to lose. I'm not saying that you're going to lose. Your goal is obviously to win, but you don't want to put yourself in a position that if you were to lose everything, then it's affecting your livelihood and your personal life. So start there, spread your money around different books and then you get into the strategy of how to bet and what to bet on Hold up. 

22:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I feel like I'm talking to, like my friends, like a couple of buddies are, like people that I mean definitely a lot of buddies, if you are listening to this have improved significantly over the past two years, three years and, like, actually started winning at sports betting now just from listening to a few small tips. But the message is this and if you're a sharp, better listening to this podcast, you want to get through to a friend, someone, you, everyone has that buddy who just can't win. He's just dunking money every year and he loves gambling. Like, do you like losing? Show him this clip. Do you like losing at sports betting? Why do you keep losing? Why do you do the things in the rest of your life that will save you money? Why are you not going to the club because you want to save a hundred bucks, but you dunk money at the online casino, at a sports book. Why are you doing this? Be smart. 

23:34
This football season a small, small lesson. Put a little bit of time into it, put a little bit of investment to it, both in terms of money and your, your work, and you can make money this season. This is the year. You turn it the fuck around. You're winning money this season, but do it smart. 

23:51
Come, reach out to us. We'll get you guys in a setup session, we'll help you out, we'll do the bankroll management for you and actually and hopefully can instill a few principles and then you want to run on your own. You can bet whatever you want, you can figure out betting strategies and stuff like that, but you can make money this football season. Everyone should be making money this football season. Whether it comes via bonuses, whether it comes via following someone's picks who has a hot year, or whether it comes from making your own picks based on dunking money on your favorite team or on Lamar Jackson every single week, you are going to make money this season. If you do it smart and put the time in and expected value, you will make money, especially in the long run. Would you agree, rob? 

24:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well said, there are some principles here that we should probably hit home on, like, if you're going to be the guy that is going to bet 15 minutes before every football game, it's going to be a lot harder to make money. That's not to say you can't capitalize on bonuses you still can. 

24:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But what I'm saying is anyone who does any of these bad principles that you're about to talk to, so still don't do these things Rob's going to do. But if you just double, I'm saying don't do the things that Rob's is going to say not to do, obviously. But what I'm saying is if you just open a few accounts this year, get some bonus money and then stick to some sort of strategy, it's going to be extremely hard for you to lose money this year. It's going to be extremely difficult, especially if you're in any of the new legal states or provinces. All right, now I'll turn it over to Rob. But, yes, even the 50 minutes before stuff, whatever you could even do all that, as long as you do this stuff that I'm saying first, it's gonna be very hard to lose money. 

25:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So let me piggyback on what Johnny's saying here. I obviously firmly believe in the product that we have in Betstamp. I use Betstamp on a daily basis. You need to get into the habit of going to an odds aggregator, of going to an odds aggregator. I would highly recommend Betstamp. Before you place your bets. 

25:45
If the sports book is your first stop, you're probably in trouble, unless you're manually shopping all the lines yourself, which you can do. But it's also a pain in the ass, like if someone's going to do it for you in five seconds, why is it going to take you five minutes to do it? It's a massive time suck. Get in the habit of using an odds aggregator. Go to bet stamp Before you're going to place a bet. It will tell you which sportsbook has the best price. If you want to customize it to only include the sportsbooks that you've deposited into, you can do that. If you want to customize it to show the best price in the region, state, province that you live in, you can do that. But the best price in the region, state, province that you live in, you can do that. 

26:23
But Johnny brings up a great point and I use the analogy of like the gas station example every single time I've probably said it on this show before, but all the media I do in terms of like educational betting practices. I try to relate it back to something that people are experiencing in their day-to-day lives, and lots of people obviously are very sensitive to the price of gas. Right now, it's double what they used to pay for the price of gas. Every time you go to fill up your tank, it's costing you two times what it did a year ago. If you were to find a gas station across the street that was serving gas for a much cheaper price, you would fill up at that gas station. People do this in their day-to-day lives, but for some reason or another, they don't do it in sports betting. Why? Because it's like a five-minute nuisance to sign up for a sports book and make a deposit. Like this is stuff that is going to turn you from a losing better into a winning better, or is going to turn you from a winning better into a more profitable better as well. Like this is just a standard practice. 

27:18
So for everyone who bets on the NFL, the biggest single piece of advice I can give you is before you make your bet, find the best price. Plain and simple 99% of the time. Obviously, there's going to be some instances where you just have to bet quickly. I get that Tom Brady's out for the bucks. Okay, I know I got to move on the other side and if I quickly find the best line, it might cost me, but for 99% of the bets that you make, find the best price, it could honestly turn a losing season into a winning season for you or it could turn into an even more profitable season. Cannot preach that enough. I know sometimes it sounds like beating a dead horse, but there's still not enough people that actually listen to that. So, um, I mean, that's number one. 

28:06
The second thing I will say there's a lot of people in the off season who are putting in a lot of work into the NFL. I'm going to be the realist here. I'm going to be the asshole that says this. If you read some sort of preview magazine over and over over the course of the off season, it's not going to help you beat the NFL. I hate to break it to you. It's nice that you might know about more about the players and more about the teams, but especially if this is mass produced stuff that is sold to a lot of different people. You're all reading the same stuff. You're not going to have a competitive edge over other people and, frankly, most of the stuff that people are consuming in the off season is not going to help them win. There's lots of different ways to win at the NFL, but just understanding what teams are, especially when it's mass produced stuff, is not going to be the stuff that gets you over the edge. 

28:59
Finding prices that are off market that's going to help you win. 

29:04
Betting earlier in the week, when your competition is less professional bettors and more, let's say, a softer market, so to speak, that's going to help you win. 

29:17
Reading a preview magazine and forming the same opinion on every other team as every other person is not going to give you win. Reading a preview magazine and forming the same opinion on every other team as every other person is not going to give you a differentiator in market. It's just going to have you betting into a market where that information is already being accounted for. So, as hard as it is to process, try to think of outside the box stuff and if you can't, and if you don't want to do it or you don't have the time to do it, try to find prices that are generally off market and just get good numbers, like get in the process of forgetting about the teams. I think that's the biggest mistake that people make overall is they just get infatuated with teams and then they just want to bet them regularly on a weekly basis. Start to get in the process of this number is valuable, more so than this team is valuable I I agree, I agree, go ahead zach I just have a question. 

30:06 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I guess like taking it to a more like basic level as well, and with what rob's talking about, with finding an off-market number or betting earlier in the week and finding these things to be able to win. Um, and I'll just give a little bit of context, for it is like for myself, I bet mlb, especially during the summer. A lot of times what I'll do is look at the overnighters the night before I can find some of the off-market numbers or things like that, and then I can see okay, I know where this is going to go by tomorrow and figure that out. I get good closing line value etc. I've been doing that for the summer. It's worked out pretty well for the NFL, in my opinion. 

30:40
I look at this from like a uh, let's just say I'm a recreational better, uh, I look at it as a harder thing to predict or understand. What advice would you guys give to people who are looking at this? Say, you're going to look at early in the week for the Sunday NFL game slate and you're looking at this going. Okay, this number seems off market. Is there any kind of advice you could give to people into determining, like, what direction things might move in, or being able to interpret that, or how things may move, because, hey, maybe I'm going to look at DraftKings and it's got uh, it's got minus 120 and Pinnacle has minus 145, and I bet it, because I say, hey, this is good, but then I don't know, by then, by sunday, maybe things go the opposite way for me if I'm a recreational better, like what would you give to people looking at? 

31:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
that kind of stuff. I think rob and I'll probably disagree on this answer, so I'll let him answer first and then I can give a hot take. I almost want to hear the hot take first now you can't put me on the spot for that. Okay, I know what you're going to answer. 

31:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's correct, but go ahead. There's two things right. So when I tell people generally not to bet on Sundays, I mean that because most people who bet on Sundays or Saturdays or whatever, let's say, as the market goes on over the course of the week, they're going to do so because they think that they're processing all this information about teams that come in over the course of the week, like a lot of my friends are like why would I bet? Why would I bet on Tuesday when I haven't even seen the injury reports yet, I don't know who's playing and who's not playing. And my response to that is do you think you're actually going to be able to process those injury reports better than a bunch of quants who know exactly what this player is worth, type of thing? And in their minds they think so, and I would strongly disagree with that. If you're going to bet on sunday morning, you can still find value, but most people just don't want to do it in the way that they should. 

32:36
Where it's, we have a bunch of sports books who are taking very big bets. I'll reference some offshore sports books, doesn't matter to me. Bet Chris Pinnacle, even Circa in Las Vegas. They're taking large, large bets. Now you have a bunch of sports books that are taking much smaller bets, won't let you get anywhere close to the amount down. So, generally speaking, if you're just thinking logically of, we have these sports books that are willing to take a massive bet, these sports books that are not willing to take a massive bet, who do you think is more confident in the number that they have? It's the sports books that are willing to take a massive bet. So now if you start to assume that they are the source of the truth and start using the other books and kind of picking off numbers where they differ, you're probably going to be fairly successful. Now that comes with other problems down the road for sure. Obviously, we know about sports books limiting people, so on and so forth. So I'm not suggesting you cannot bet later in the week, but overall, typically speaking, I would look at what are called the market making books and I would use those as the truest source of the number at the time or the truest probability that we have the game at the time. 

33:48
And the reason I suggest for most people getting down earlier in the week is because if you start to pick up on certain things, especially over the course of NFL season, more data becomes available. This team gets bet every week. Number starts moving here, so on and so forth. You can just make better bets If you start getting into the process of let's even say you forget about handicapping the game, like a lot of people want to do. Luke in our office, for example, is going to come up to me every week and he'd be like, oh, this guy's going to have a huge game or whatever. I'll be like luke, forget about that man. Just one number is this way game gonna go. Stop thinking about the players. You'd be a much more successful, better overall, um, that's why I suggest betting earlier in the week. You tend to see you have a better chance of obtaining a good number. 

34:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But, um, I'm curious where okay, you might disagree so I I wouldn't say I honestly, I I don't disagree with what rob said in any way, I just disagree. And then that the fact that I would give a different answer and this is the reason why so what rob is saying is 100 factual, all of those things are correct. You, you should not be betting late in the week and just trying to originate an opinion, because that doesn't really work. You want to be betting when smaller limits, when there's more movement. You want to be picking off stuff earlier then, and it's way easier to win like that. No doubt, what I'm saying is this is why my answer wouldn't be to bet early in the week. 

35:08
For anyone who's listening to this podcast, that's like starting up opening up four accounts once. Try to win this sunday, uh, or sorry, this nfl season on sunday. What I would recommend actually is just and I'll just say this candidly I would just recommend bet on whatever the fuck you want, anytime you want any. Anytime you see a bet, for whatever reason, a narrative, whoever gives you the pick, bet on that. Just make sure you're getting the best price. Okay, and I would bet on Sunday, if you want, and I bet on Saturday if you want and on Friday if you want, and the reason is you are in a spot where, if you want to be serious about betting and actually win real money and start to make it a hobby, then, yes, do what rob said, but for the most part, I know that that is. That is probably going in one ear and out the other for like 90 of people, true. So for those 90 who are like I don't want to make this a ton of work and stuff like that, I just want to bet on, have fun with my, with my buddies, and I want my buddy to to send me that lamar jackson as a touchdown in seven straight games and then we're gonna bang, bang that prop for the eighth game. 

36:07
That's cool. I'm telling you straight up. You can still win money doing that and that is what's so amazing about the current state of betting legal betting within canada and the us is that, even with that, as, as you odd shop and as long as you take advantage of the early season bonuses, you're still going to make money on the whole season, even by just dunking on whatever you want. If you are a Buffalo Bills fan, you can literally say this year I watch every Bills game. I want to bet on the Bills, spread the Bills money line and Josh Allen to get a rushing touchdown every single game. 

36:38
You can predetermine that before the season and as long as you have the right combination of books which again we can help you out with. But as long as you have the right combo of books and then as long as you bet at the best price every single Sunday you can even bet it Sunday at 1254 Eastern, six minutes before kickoff, usually for Bills games you can still win money over the course of the year. All in, so I would say yes, the smaller things, like if you're originating a side, you obviously want to better than the week, but I wouldn't even my point to betters, wouldn't even be. Don't bet on Sundays. I would even go as far as to say bet on Sundays and actually for that bet whenever you want, anytime you want. Just always get the best price on the books you have and obviously try to have as many books as possible so you can get an even better price. 

37:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, fair enough, a lot of what we talk about, a lot of stuff that's open-ended and we're trying to make it like all inclusive, right, there are different, different motivations to betting. For me and you, the motivation to betting is to win money, I think. For a lot of people it is. For some people, the motivation is to get entertainment value. For some people, the motivation is to be part of a community, to bet with other people, to have a little bit of a rush, or so on and so forth. Right, I approach things a lot of times from the perspective of how to win money, and you literally see people every day. I'm very consumed in twitter, obviously, so I mean kind of tractor beam sometimes, um, in terms of like the way I see things. But you'll have people who handicap sports three hours a day. They spend three hours of every single day going through the nfl. They might know a ton about football and they watch capping they're they. 

38:19
They watch the games, they watch the you know, they watch the replays of games, they're going through some trends and some stats and whatever. They spend three hours a day on average and they don't know about betting. They just know about the teams and they think that they can translate that to betting. Then you might have a person who I could sit down with my 20 year old cousin as an example 20 year old legal betting agent, ontario. By the way, for any of the Americans who want to question me, my 20 year old cousin who I could sit down with, I could teach him in 15 minutes of how to log on to bet stamp for one minute a day and I would put my money on that person who spends seven minutes a week, a minute a day, betting on sports, versus the guy who's capping for three hours a day, because understanding how to win at betting and understanding sports are very different things. So people always think that it's the amount of work that they put in that's going to lead to success and in a lot of cases in life that is completely true. You put a lot of hours in. It typically leads to success. 

39:29
It's sometimes counterintuitive for sports betting. It sometimes doesn't matter. In sports betting it's work smart, not necessarily work hard. You can do both. You can work smart and you can work hard. My 20 year old cousin if, instead of logging on to bet stamp for an hour a day, a minute a day, and he spent an hour a day on it he's going to find more good bets over the course of time and his ROI is going to go up. But don't think that this is just like oh, you know, you know how many times are we going to hear it on a weekend, on a Sunday morning, like this guy's out Okay, we've known he's out since Thursday, it's already factored into the line. Like you're making a bet based off of Chris Godwin being out. 

40:12
No, julio Jones even worse this year's Julio Jones A guy who's like hasn't even impacted the spread for years, but is now even less of an impact. This is what I'm saying. So, like, understanding betting and understanding sports are very different things and sometime I think it's okay for someone who's a huge sports fan to take a step back and say I need to understand how betting markets work a little bit more, and that's my best chance for success. If you don't want to do that, I get it. I'm just telling you your best shot at winning money. But if this is entertainment thing, you can go the route that johnny said. I have zero problems with that. I don't like. 

40:45
We've had the chance to chat the chats about the content space before and people like oh, this guy's putting out garbage bets and whatever and this, and that it's like well, this guy knows he's putting out garbage bets and he says it every single week, so what's the problem with it? You know, know, just let him bet Like he's betting for fun, so on and so forth. People get their, their. You know, I don't know what I don't know. 

41:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like if this was me, if I wasn't so serious into betting right now and I just wanted to have fun, the thing I would do would be every single weekend I'd sit on the couch, grab a couple of brews and sit and watch it with all the buddies and just watch football, and I would have my phone. I'd probably bet on my phone. I'd link a couple accounts with BetStamp, probably end up rolling like five or six sports books deep. I can give recommendations, message me. I don't want to mention like the specific book names on the air that I would go with, but obviously, depending on your state, region, stuff like that, I'd probably roll like five, six books deep, load them all up with like two grand each at the start of the season. 

41:42
Um, and then this is again. If I was just trying to bet for fun or maybe whatever, maybe it's not too great, maybe it's 10 or maybe it's one or a hundred, whatever it is, it doesn't matter and then I would probably bet like three to four games a week, maybe a long, sharp parlay a week, maybe a first touchdown scorer for every single game. Just throw like 50 bucks on a first touchdown score for every single game of the week and I would just sit there, have all my bets tracked in BetStamp and then I'd just roll it and watch all the games three TV set up, as I have here and then would just be rolling, three TV set up, watch all my games, and then you just see those notifs pop up Bet won, bet lost, bet won, bet lost. Those notifs pop up that one that lost, that one that lost and then you grind it out. I wouldn't chase for the sunday nighter, but I'd have a predetermined budget for the sunday nighter, probably a little larger than the rest of the games. Just, you know, standard fun hit those bets pre-game, figure out how you're doing, figure out where you want to go, and then they're having the best sunday of all time. 

42:36
This is how I would do it and honestly, I wish I could do it like this. Betting is is ruined for me. Now I don't get to have fun betting anymore and I used to do that and I had so much fun doing it. So anyone who's listening or watching this on cam, I envy you. You're about to have the best, funnest football season ever. If you just, if you just do that and you don't even have to worry about it. It's no sweat, you're crazy, I wish. 

43:00 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I could be like that. Okay, then a question just to add on. I know we've talked about different types of bankrolls and how and how to manage your bankrolls, but we're probably got a lot of new listeners and stuff. Now, people listening, they're going to bet on NFL for the first time. You sign up at these books, you deposit, you say this is my bankroll for the year. What would you recommend as the easiest or the best way for someone who's just starting? What bankroll management method I know it's differs for everybody and it depends and like there are a lot of variables in it. But like, hey, I'm going to start tomorrow and I'm going to start my betting journey what's the one you'd recommend or the easiest way to manage your bankroll you'd recommend for someone just starting, right? 

43:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I mean, obviously the easiest way is flat betting, right when it's just the same same size bet, no matter what. So let's say you have a hundred dollar bankroll. Typically, you're going to bet 1% of your bankroll on every single play, a dollar, whatever, so on and so forth. With that said, you're leaving money on the table. 

43:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, let's say, go to go like a reasonable amount, that people who would be listening to this would start with me like two grand or something Sure For the year, like, okay, I have two grand, that if I lose two grand I'm not going to be upset, that's my money for the year that I'm good to dunk. So how much are you betting? So I probably honestly do two and a half percent bankroll. I probably do $50 unit size for two grand. 

44:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would say this, in my opinion, because if you're someone who's going to literally play a hundred things over the course of the week, you're probably going to want to play a slightly smaller unit in general, so that you don't put your entire bankroll into play over the course of weekend. That's fine for some people I'm not suggesting you would never, ever do that or put your entire bankroll into play but for some people, like especially in the early going, it's about not going bust, right. So I would say that the unit size would depend on your risk tolerance personally and your volume at the beginning. There's no right or wrong answer for me. Typically, I'm playing one to two percent of my bankroll, uh, as my average size, betting size, and that differs by sport, so on and so forth because of the volume. Um, so there's no, in my opinion, right or wrong. It's just a comfort level type of thing. 

45:05
But what I would say, and where I'm very adamant about something that you should do, is if you are more confident in a game or less confident in a game, or your selection, or so on and so forth. You should be adjusting your play size like. This is just common sense, if you think about this from a common sense point of view. If you like a game a lot more, don't bet it the same amount that you play a game that you like a lot less. Put a little bit more on it. That's fine to do. 

45:31
You can vary your bet sizes. You don't want to get out of hand. You don't want to be playing 1% on one game and 20% on another game. That's insane. But to go from, you know, maybe a double play or something like that. Or maybe you want just some action on a game and you're not confident you have an edge, but you're like I want a little bit of action on this game, I'll put a smaller amount. That's totally fine. You don't have to bet everything as a standard unit. So you want to vary it based off of confidence level. And again, risk appetite is very important for some people. I will preach this. I'm very sensitive to problem gaming. I think I have an onus to preach responsible gaming to people. If you are like really sweating watching a game and it's affecting your wellbeing at any point, you have too much money in play period. Whether that's your average unit size, your total bankroll like this has to be a comfort thing for you. That's your average unit size. 

46:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Your total bankroll Like this has to be a comfort thing for you Easy. Yeah, be smart. Yes, just be smart. You know what it is Be smart. 

46:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So that's the answer, zach, to you. I think you, you know you don't have to go full math Like if you really want to learn about the Kelly criterion. You know that's complicated, it's for that. 

46:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not for the average person, right, but also as and I'll say it once more all of this stuff that rob's saying like you could basically forget about this until you've completed all the beginner stuff, exactly until you've completed all the beginner stuff, do not worry about whose picks you're gonna get what, how much you bet. How much you bet is largely irrelevant unless you've actually got the groundwork done for the initial process. Completely agree. And I want to say one more thing, which is I think really it's tough to grasp for a lot of people, but if you can grasp this concept and and you're okay with this then it's going to help you save a lot of money and make a lot more money, which is, you have to learn to not care about what you bet on, what team you bet on, and what I mean by that is if you have, if a sports book that you have is offering like a promotional boost on one of the teams, um, and that's a great value play because it's meant to be a promo so you might be able to bet 25 bucks on, uh, the bills to score over 20 points, and then it's a $25 max bet. It's at plus a hundred in their. Their point, total might be 28 and a half. So you have a good bet there and it's a promo bet for 25 bucks. If you then look at that and say, ah, I don't like the bills this week, right, you're what. You're leaving money on the table, right. But if you can detach yourself for what from what you actually want to bet on and instead just look for good value bets in order to chase wins, instead of chasing what you think will win, you can make a lot more money. 

48:04
Another example which comes into play a lot when we're when we're looking at like beginners who are looking to have fun and do this is let's say, you had a bad week in one betting account and a good week in the other betting account. So now you're loaded up with only a hundred bucks left in one betting account and you've got 600 in the other account. So you go you line shop and you're like okay, betting account, and you've got 600 in the other account. So you go you line shop and you're like, okay, account number one is a hundred bucks in. These are my three plays for account number one 33, 33, $33 risk on each. I'm out of money now. I'm out in. 

48:31
It's all in play in account number one. You go to account number two. You've got 600 bucks there, but you might find like, oh shit, I want to bet the Falcons, but the Falcons' best price is actually at account number one. I'm out of money there, so let me just bet this at account number two at a bad price. That's a big no-go. You're going to want to try to pick something else where the best price is at account number two, where you have the money in. And if you're constantly finding, ah, this account never has the best price, I don't use it, then now would be a good time to hit the rollover, withdraw and redeploy into another, a new book. So it's really complicated if you think of it like that, because it's not. 

49:05
I guess at the end of the day, betting is supposed to be fun. Um, so if it's like your favorite team and you're like a hardcore jets fan, like you don't want to bet against the jets, that's cool. When you're looking at another game jags versus titans and you see a derrick henry booster and you're playing him in fantasy, you're going to be like I hate Derrick Henry's in a bad week, like that's a good bet. If you want action on the game. Place good bets and detach yourself from what you think is going to happen and instead look for good numbers. The market's significantly smarter than you in most cases. What would you say, rob, on that? 

49:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I completely agree with that. I mean, I think what really separates even if you're recreational, I think what really separates the best recreational bettors from the worst really where the divide is is that you need to be able to think probabilistically in the NFL and not speak in terms of certainties. So what I mean by that is how many times have you watched a game in the NFL where it's week four of the season and you're like I can't wait to fade this team next week, or I can't wait to bet on this team this week, next week, and then you ignore the price when you go to bet them the week afterwards? What I would highly highly suggest for someone who's betting the NFL is to make your own numbers before you look at what the book's numbers are. This was a turning point for me in my betting career, because I used to fall into the habit of oh, there's no way the Packers are losing two games in a row. No way the Packers are losing two games in a row. They lose a game. I'm going to hammer them to win the next week. Of course they can lose two in a row. There's a probability that they can lose two in a row. 

50:46
It might be unlikely, but if you're, you might end up making a really bad bet where, probabilistically, you should be betting the other side. Try to think in terms of a probability. You don't have to be a math whiz Like you don't have to. This is not like you don't have to be a math whiz like you don't have to. This is not like you don't have to come up with some intense, crazy model. Just tell yourself what you think the point spread should be before you even look at the spread of the game, because I think that's going to save you a lot of money and you might actually find yourself betting on the other side of a game that you you know where you intended to go in and bet the one team. There should always be a price on both sides in the game where you would play either side Of course, always. 

51:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's so easy when you think of it as like a coin flip, yep, or a dice roll right, it's very easy. But with betting sometimes it's not. But yeah, like. 

51:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Because people fall in love with teams Like their eyes. Tell them something, right. They're like, ah, this team got lucky or unlucky or whatever, I'm going to bet them next week, so on and so forth. It's fine, go ahead and bet them, but tell me what? Do you think that the price should be next game? You know, you watch the Packers smoke another good team. You're like, oh, this team's on fire, I'm going to bet them again next week, okay. 

51:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tell me what the spread should be, and then higher than that? Yeah, of course. Of course. It's easy, like if I give you 10 to 1 odds on a coin flip, only if you pick heads, you're picking heads, right, right. 

52:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then if I give you three to one on tails, you're picking tails and it doesn't matter if you think it's going to come up the other thing, you're going to take that bet regardless. Yeah, because you know. You know it's 50, 50, yeah, right well I would think I, if you give me three to one on tails, I think you're scamming me I. I think it's a weighted coin, so maybe not a great example, but that but that's it Like it's. 

52:25
You know it's simpler than it seems, right. I mean, I know tons of people that do this. Now just make your own numbers on a game and then like, start tracking this stuff, tracking, bet tracking huge. Nobody wants to do it, it's. 

52:36
It's such an easy way to see whether you have something that's worthwhile or not. If you're consistently beating the market, that's a great sign. If you're consistently not, that's a horrible sign. I mean, if you notice that you're doing really well on totals but you stink on spreads over a long period of time, okay, you can refine. You can bet more totals, bet less spreads. Like there's just so many ways that you can become a better, better that aren't extremely labor intensive. It's just applying like simple concepts, getting out of the mindset of falling in love with specific teams and starting to think more probabilistically. And obviously this comes from a guy who you know I was always good at math in my life. But it doesn't matter, it doesn't really matter. As long as you understand the concept, you will be better off. One more thing I want to talk about controversial. People will get on my case for this as well, but I'm going to throw it out there anyways, following other people's picks or following, or paying for the announcement Pazola is going to sell his picks. 

53:39
No, it's not in the. It's not the announcement. I often wonder why I don't. That's a story for another day. 

53:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Pazola has gone tout Kanish roast them. 

53:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The truth being, when I see what other people in this space are making off of pick sales, I often want to vomit, and I've. I've often wondered why I haven't sold picks sooner. Maybe one day We'll see. Anyways, here's the thing. You can make money off of tailing other people's picks. You can make money off of buying other people's picks. I'm going to be very, very specific with what I say here, though, because it's important that you understand certain things. 

54:18
Okay, when you are buying someone else's picks paying for a service you are essentially making it more difficult for yourself to profit in the long run, because you're already paying a VIG every single time you place a bet. Hopefully it's something less than minus 110 because you're line shopping, but now you're adding an additional cost on top of that. You have to win at an even higher rate. That is very difficult to overcome. Second of all, people often get obsessed with small sample sizes in the NFL and they think, because someone won for three weeks in a row and went 13-3, that this is going to continue until the end of time. Please understand the amount of randomness and variance in football. The best NFL bettors on the planet will have losing seasons by pure variance. I can almost guarantee that over the course of 50 years, if that person was to bet, they'll have a losing season in all likelihood. It's more more likely than not that they they would vegas dave, I think of course he hasn't had a losing season 

55:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
sweat investor as well, I've heard no, vegas dave, he went 16-0 again last year I actually saw his image up at the Vegas airport. 

55:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Who Vegas Dave? He put it up. 

55:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, he's racking. 

55:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's doing really well off his NFL bets. I believe he's 67% lifetime. No, he surpassed Warren Sharp last week, I think in terms of his lifetime record 10-0 this preseason lifetime record. Tend to know this preseason. 

55:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I can't even comment on any of these. 

55:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm joking. For those who don't understand the sarcasm I need to put out there, that's just this is don't don't buy Vegas. 

56:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Dave's picks literally 100%. Don't buy Vegas Dave's picks the better. Literally go buy a fake Gucci bag with that money. 

56:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A fake Rolex. When you're looking to tail someone else, look at a few things For one. When they're posting a play whether this is on social media, whether you're buying the pick, whatever make sure that the line actually exists, that they post that. A lot of people get away with saying, oh, go out and bet minus one and a half. It's not minus one and a half anywhere. I would honestly say that this happens with like at least half of the cappers that are out. There are posting lines that have already steamed. That is not helpful for you. You can do that yourself. You can look at what the line was and some other sharp bet it and move the line. You can go find, find that old price at at least one sportsbook. You can do that yourself. Don't pay someone for that. What you want to look for is a large sample size of someone who's beating the market at real prices, plain and simple. That's your best indicator for long-term success in the NFL. Don't get sucked into tailing someone who's on a hot streak. Had a great year last year, it doesn't matter. We're looking at long sample sizes with good closing line value. Because of that, it's probably best not to buy picks overall or to tail people, but if you're resigned to doing it, this is what I would look for. Period Could be props, doesn't matter. You want to look at larger sample size. The line existed and they're generally getting good closing line value. 

57:40
I would suggest to use the BetStamp marketplace as best as you can to look at verified records of people. At the end of the day, it's on you. However, you want to do your due diligence, but please, for the love of God, do not get sucked into the small sample sizes that people promote. Johnny said that one of the best things that I've ever heard in my life, which I love to repeat every single time. If a capper promotes that they're 11 and one in their last 12 plays, you best believe that they're 11 and two in their last 13. These people are marketers. 

58:14
Okay, you need to understand that. Please. Even if you're on a losing streak, a bad losing streak or whatever it's gonna, you know you're gonna feel like you can't do anything. Right, I gotta find other people that win. So you are more. You are just as likely to win as most other people that are in the space, because they're a bunch of coin flippers. So if you are resigned to tailing someone or buying picks. I'm never going to suggest to you you know I don't like to use the word never like, never do this, never do that. But if you're doing your homework on someone large sample size, good closing line value, real lines, period and if somebody posts bets without a VIG attached to it, ignore them completely. If someone says I bet minus three, what did you bet minus three at? Was it minus 105? Was it plus 100? Was it minus 120? I bought a half point. What did it cost you to buy the half point? What did you pay for that? So on and so forth. 

59:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So some people do say I've seen two people that I like they'd say, say I've seen two people that I like did say, hey, I'm giving out my picks. Every single thing here is at minus 110. I would bet this up to minus 110. Don't ask me for the year. I'm going to give you my three or four or five picks for the year. They're all going to be spreads or totals. They're all going to be minus 110. That's what I'm tracking against. That's fine. I think that's transparent. But yes, it's more when you do money line Carolina Panthers money line Minus 55, minus 87, minus 210. What are you betting? 

59:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know. I know. The only reason I say this is because I do know a person who is a semi-pro bettor that has never originated anything his entire life and all he does is look for other people that win. It can be done. You can find people that win. It can be done. You can find people that win. You can see people who have an impact on the market, whether or not you actually agree with the play or not. 

01:00:04
If somebody releases a play at minus three, minus two and a half let's use minus two and a half as an example it almost will never happen. But someone releases a play at minus two and a half, you know that this person is going to move the market. You should jump on that bet regardless. There's so many things you can do with that at the end of the week. If he bets minus two and a half and you know it's going to move to minus three and a half, minus four, especially for some of these preseason games, get on top of it, because now you have an option later in the week you can buy back on the four. You can keep the minus two and a half Like you have a good position at that point, so that's a pretty good giveaway of like people who generally win. It's not entirely true, but if they are moving market, get on that Sure, why not? Like, you want to take advantage of that as best as you can. 

01:00:53
So this is, um, we, you know there's a lot of I don't want PETA after me, but there's a lot of ways to skin a cat. Let's put it that way. You can do a lot of uh, you can do a lot of different things in the NFL. Me and Johnny, despite the fact that we're good friends, we bet in completely different ways, but we apply a lot of the same principles, and that's what it comes down to. You can you can carve out your own niche, embedding the NFL. You can do a lot of things. You don't have to mimic anyone else's style or whatever, but there are certain things that will make it substantially more difficult for you to win in the long run. There are certain things that will make it easier for you to win in the long run, and the intention of doing this podcast today was to help you identify some of both. 

01:01:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well said, rob. I think in Ontarioario this year a lot of new sports books, good times. There will be no more dfs darts for pazola or for I actually I will say I did notice. 

01:01:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yahoo, who does not have a sports book in canada, has a dfs offering now, oh no, I can't, I can't. 

01:01:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Don't tell me that they do uh, so well. 

01:01:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I only noticed this because we used to DFS little darts, Little darts. Did I ever tell you about the dart when I was the first radio producer? 

01:02:07 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I think I might have told you this recently. 

01:02:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, when I first started out as a radio producer I used to produce Gabriel Morenci and Cam Stewart. I was 21 or 22 years old. I used to come into the office every day and spend not an exaggeration one to two hours putting together a dartboard with every team's logo that was playing on that day. Literally, I got paid peanuts at the time. I was like $28,000 annual full-time salary but the first 90 minutes of my day was taking a dartboard out of a room, printing off logos and taping them on, just so that they could do a show where once a day they could each throw a random dart and bet on the team where the dart hit. And I started to cut corners after a while too and like started avoiding, like not put some teams on or whatever. 

01:03:01
And they would actually notice there's like 60 teams on that board during like an NBA and NHL season. And they'd be like oh, I don't see the Portland trailblazers on here. Pizzola, you're slacking this and that. I'm like. I literally spend 90 minutes a day day. I'm getting arthritis at 21 years old from using the scissors every day. So you guys can throw one dart at a board. Half the time it doesn't even stick because they don't know how to throw darts properly, so they don't know where it hit. I have to like, consult the cameras to see where like what. But that was, it was a great job, but, my god, I don't. 

01:03:35 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I do not miss that at all this is gonna be to be me, and I'm going to be like I was 23 years old producing this show. I had to spin pinatas. 

01:03:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I used to tell the. You know this is almost 15 years ago now. Okay, there is a site that still exists randomorg. I used to tell these guys every day like I can type in a list of all the teams no, it's not even fun. 

01:03:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Don every day, like I can type in a list of all the teams. No, it's not even fun. Don't even ever suggest and put it up on the screen and you guys can click like go. 

01:04:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What do you mean? 

01:04:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it's not even fun we do pinata picks every week, I know, but I'm saying like the point of the show is to literally throw a literal dart at the dartboard you, you guys, you don't even know I'd love, I'd love to throw. I'd love to throw some dfs darts this season, but I actually don't have the time for it. I don't have the time to be putting together DFS darts and also Yahoo Fantasy is probably not going to be good. I don't play regular fantasy on Yahoo. I don't need an additional thing. 

01:04:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love DFS because it's the one thing you can do half an hour before kick. Well, you'd trade props or whatever, but I don't Half hour before kickoff. 

01:04:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's great for me, I'm doing nothing, you're doing nothing, I'm doing nothing. You got the Pizzola Periscope. 

01:04:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know, I do my Periscope. Periscope doesn't even exist anymore. I do my video, I do the pizza buffet pozzola periscope. 

01:04:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Everyone knows that. 

01:04:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's what they pizza but coin flipping season, whatever you like to call it. I do that. My wife makes me lunch. I quickly eat a lunch, go right back to the computer and I'm just hammering away. 

01:05:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Dfs line we should call it the pozzola dart, pozzola's darts, and then just you also, while you're talking, or hacking a dart I'm actually smoking a cigarette. 

01:05:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, I mean, I know I can't I would not be able to get away with that I. 

01:05:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I kind of like the idea like that's a show for someone else. 100 it's like a good gimmick. But they're there for the toronto-based sports people. They remember that dark guy yeah, yeah, yeah yeah that guy literally made a living off. He just showed up to a game with a cigarette in his mouth yeah, no, no, no, he. 

01:05:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was much more than that. He was dressed up well. 

01:05:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's a face paint and everything, at least toronto maple, he's face paint or whatever. But dart guy, he was just dude. He broadcast one day they showed one guy in the in the stands, and that's it. 

01:05:49 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He got his own show on toronto sports radio, because he got caught in the camp in the stands with a dart in his mouth and his face painted and then he got hired as a junior, a scout, in like a local junior A league yes, he did. Was he good or no, I mean. 

01:06:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't want to speak to the quality of his scouting, yeah. 

01:06:06 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don't know, but I know the team that hired him is in my hometown. That's crazy, and he worked as a scout for them. That's crazy. 

01:06:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Also, I do want to mention uh, if you're still listening at this point, then you're obviously a true fan. So I do want to mention thank you no, thank you for your support, obviously, but, um, we do want to mention that we got some real big things coming on the content side this year. 

01:06:27
Little teaser probably make a big big, a big bomb banger announcement next week. And, um, a lot of people have been asking rob for his content. We got some big stuff coming the pozzola periscope I don't know if that's going to be there. I don't know if it's going to be somewhere else. I don't know what's going to happen with that. And, uh, definitely going to be a lot of great stuff coming over the next week. So stay tuned for announcement. We'll probably touch on it next week in circles off. 

01:06:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Thanks everyone for listening before it's done, keep the music playing. It's good, I like. I like this song. It's good too. Uh, catch me in vegas at circa this weekend. There's a lot of people who've messaged me want to introduce themselves. I'll be the guy walking around circa sportsbook. I'll put a dart in my mouth so you can recognize me, the skinny, 160 pound guy with the dart in his mouth. But come say hello. Seriously, um, signing up for the Circa Millions and the Survivor should be a great week For those who are following on YouTube. Please hit that like and subscribe button and that's it. We'll catch you next week.