00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off, we're joined by a very special guest. His name is John Fendler. You see him on the Hit the Books channel talking college basketball. With March Madness right around the corner, You're going to want to hear what he has to say about how to bet on college basketball and, if you stay tuned right to the very end of this episode, johnny from BetStamp giving out a very infrequent pick, you're going to want to listen to this one. All that and more on this week's circles off. Come on, let's go. Welcome to circles off. Episode number 90 here on the circles off youtube channel, a part of the hammer betting network, rob isola, joined by johnny from vet staff. Number 90 couldn't be more timely for us Leafs fans. Ryan O'Reilly Ryan O'Reilly just traded to the Leafs. Pretty exciting moment. There is a former Leaf. He didn't wear 90 with the Leafs, but Jason Spezza, when he played for the Stars, wore 90 for many years as well, spez, the hometown boy O'Reilly is one of the few guys that doesn't wear the visor. 

01:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, so nails His grandfather did. 

01:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love that. That's unbelievable. You don't want to mess with a guy and even in men's league there's a lot of guys that wear the half visor. Some of them wear the half cage or even the full cage, but half cage. You can mess with that guy 100% If you're wearing a half cage, bro. 

01:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What is of? Yeah, you know, you know I'm talking about like the half cage, and then it's or the half visor, and the cage on the bottom. 

01:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, that's the worst, does he? Do you know what I'm talking about? Plastic or metal? I'm talking about the top half of the helmet visor is visors, the bottom half plastic I, I never got close. 

01:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, what he's referring to, by the way, for anyone who plays puck is uh, he's talking about a fishbowl this. 

01:43 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, I. I have a fishbowl. The fishbowl is nice, but the cage on the bottom is not. 

01:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's why I asked him If it's plastic all the way. That's the fishbowl. Oftentimes it's actually a hot debate. Some people like it, other times you'll get definitely chirped for that and then other times it's kind of cool. But it depends on your skill level as a player as to if but it depends on your skill level as a player, I say if your fishbowl is cool or not. The cage at the bottom visor in the middle is frowned upon heavily, very heavily frowned upon in the industry. 

02:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I never wore that. I was a visor guy personally. But the visor sucks because you got to like spray it before the game. It fogs up. You know what I'm saying? It's that was the day where I had to wear it. Nowadays like I don't play men's league anymore, but I just don't want to get like. I don't ever want to have to do like stuff with my teeth. You know, I've seen guys take like an accidental puck that just like hits a stick, goes flutters, hits them in the teeth. They lose like three teeth. Like I don't want to deal with that. No, I'm a full cage kind of guy. 

02:38
Yeah I don't want to deal with that. 

02:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Zach goes visor yeah your, your visor, it'll will. 

02:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, the only problem with the full cage is like if you get into like men's league scrap, they can just grab the cage really easily, buddy, that's nothing, that doesn't, that doesn't do anything. 

02:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What? 

02:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
do you mean it doesn't do anything? 

02:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Buddy come on Okay. Who's letting? 

02:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
you're letting guys grab your cage in the men guy that ever wants to fight in any sport. I'll tell you right now Like I'm not, I just don't want to deal with it. Like I don't play sports to. Like I played ball hockey, competitive ball hockey for years and I'm like the guy every game in ball hockey where you're trailing like by two if the game is a two goal game in the third period, somebody's getting fucked up in the ball hockey game and it's usually going to be behind the play in the corner and that guy was usually me just taking chops to the ankles and the back of the knees while just like ref and he's like what do you want me to do? The plays down here in this. And like I just don't want to deal with that. Like I don't want to turn. Like I don't want to turn around, slug the guy. 

03:38
Bench is clear. Like that's not my idea of a fun tuesday night. What happened to you? Like there's some guys that live for that right. They're going to the, the, the rink. They're like yeah, I can't wait. I can't wait for it. For me, it's just like I just want to get some exercise in, have some fun and not get you know, stick across the back of the knees 14 times. Fair enough. 

04:00 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm trying to play hockey real bad right now, but I did, johnny, I got this, you'll like this. I got the golf itch. 

04:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh yeah. 

04:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh, bad, bad. Watch the full swing documentary. Watch four episodes on Saturday. Watch the full finish of the Genesis on Sunday. Watch the Leafs game. Watch the last four episodes of full swing and then, monday, right to the driving range. 

04:22 - John Fendler (Guest)
Did you go to the range? 

04:23 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yep Finished work right to the range. I'm hooked boys, buddy stick around tonight. 

04:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We'll go to the sim, yeah. 

04:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Man, you guys are making me really jealous. I was going to go to the range after we recorded this I was going to go after we recorded this. 

04:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No range sucks. Let's go to the sim. I got a good sim. What range? 

04:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
golf dome they still. Oh so okay, got it indoor, we'll go to the sim after. 

04:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you stick around tonight, I got some work to do after this and we'll go to the sim, guaranteed. You got my word I. I am pebble play. Nice pebble beach with some some shifty putting just goes about. 

04:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If anyone plays golf simulators, you don't know what I mean they're big in canada here, because it's winter, we can't play golf during the year I'm I'm pretty excited for golf now too because, um, I have like good rooting interest. So Max Homa had got off to like amazing start at the beginning of the year. By the way, max Homa is like a very much a bet stamp office joke because CTO of bet stamp Julian Packer jokingly told us one week last year to bet Max Homa not to win the tournament at minus 3,300 in a tournament that he did win. So now it's become a joke. But Max Homa was on fire earlier this year and I bet him to win every single major and to win a couple other tournaments at like 50 to one, 66 to one. Now those are all in like the 15 to one, 20 to one range. So I'm a huge Max Homa fan for this year. Do you have any open bets on him? 

05:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh yeah, on what the masters? Oh, oh yeah On what the Masters oh you like. Sorry, I wasn't. I misunderstood what you said, so you bet like for the Masters, this upcoming Masters. 

05:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Every major. This year, I'm rooting for Max Homa and it'll be a big payday. It would be a bad day for Pinnacle if Max Homa hits it. 

05:57
But Pinnacle, they did take my bets and they always take my bets, because they are the world's sharpest sports book and they're now available to residents of ontario. You can find out what pro bettors have known for decades pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus, not available to us residents and again, please play responsibly. But pinnacle will not be happy if those hit. I mean, no, they're, it's gonna be fine, like they're actually not sweating at all. They're not sweating. 

06:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Pinnacle's going out of business. They're going out of business. They will not be available in Ontario anymore if those hit. 

06:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But no, I mean I'm jealous. 

06:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like my arm's still a little bit messed, but it's getting better and I don't want to Come to the sim. 

06:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't. Zach comes and plays hoops with us. It's like just the local guys every now and then. I don't shoot too much, I'm more of a defender. 

06:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, but Rob has the craziest shot that goes in. I sort of got 90% of the time. It's like the LeBron step-back, fade-away jumper. 

06:59 - John Fendler (Guest)
It's my go-to. It's nuts. 

07:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
From how many feet. 

07:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What it's nuts from how, from from how many? How many feet? What do you think like what? 

07:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
range seven feet. 

07:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a mid-range, it's like the worst seven foot's on mid-range, it sort of is. Though, like here's the problem, right, a couple I'm this is all mostly italian guys, right? So like I'm one of the bigs, I'm six feet, 170 pounds and I'm one of the bigs, but the other bigs are bigger than me, so I all I gotta like find ways to create my own shot, and I'm a little bit more agile than the other big guys. So you know I back them down a little bit, step back, jumper boom, just honestly, exactly like lebron set the record, that's like my goat, that's my goat. 

07:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, that's the shot. 

07:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's my shot, love it love to see it. I hit about 20 on those, but they look good when it goes. It goes, that's it. That's the shot, that's my shot. 

07:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Love it, love to see it. I hit about 20% on those, but they look good when it goes. It goes. That's it. That's actually an injustice. It's way higher than 20%. I swear it's way higher than 20%. Yes, nice, yeah. 

07:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's pretty good. It's pretty good Um. Can I ask you something really? 

07:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
quickly. Yeah, also, I noticed some boxes right beside you. 

08:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I was going to ask you if you've been sweating games lately. Have I been sweating games? 

08:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Have you been sweating games? 

08:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've had a couple sweats, the last couple weeks I've had a lot of sweats and now I found some products that help with the sweats. 

08:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
What did you find I? 

08:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
found some stuff. So Support for Circles Off is now brought to you by Manscaped, the best in men's below-the-waist grooming. Their products are precision-engineered tools for your family jewels. Manscaped's performance package is the ultimate men's hygiene bundle. You can get 20% off and free worldwide shipping with the code CIRCLES if you head over to manscapedcom. 7 million men worldwide trust Manscaped. 

08:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
That's approximately 14 million balls. 

08:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is, it's probably closer to 13.9. If we're being real here, it's not exactly times two equation but what can you buy here? What do you have here? So here's the thing. Manscaped, I don't want for the audience out there make it very clear I promote products that I use If I'm confident in the product or I feel that it's worth it. Manscape, reach out to us. They're interested, like all right, send me some boxes, let's see what we got over here. Okay, performance package it's pretty solid overall. So this is too much detail here that I'm going to get into. But I'm known to be a guy. 

09:31
Go pazola shilling products again listen, I like to keep things clean. I'm a clean guy. 

09:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's just kind of what I am sweating I don't play the clip of when, when spanky had to answer that question on the spaces and he said I'd live with pazola he's. He seems like a clean guy he seems like a clean guy. 

09:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's right. He's right. I don't sweat games all that much. I do sometimes because there's way worse sweats in life and there's worse sweats in life when you're shaving below the waist. Okay, that's a real real, real, real sweat. 

10:03
This package Lawn Mower 4.0, amazing, very safe to use, easy. You can use it in the shower, which is nice Waterproof type of product way, way better overall. But there's these other things here. We got this ball toner, crop reviver okay. But this one, this is the true one the crop preserver, ball deodorant okay. You take your shower in the morning, put this on for the rest of the day. I sit at my desk a lot every day. When I'm not sitting at my desk, I exercise. I'm pretty much in a situation where my balls are gonna sweat at some point or another in the day. I've tried this now going on three weeks. It is a game changer, absolute game changer. It all comes part of the performance package product. With Manscaped, once again, you can get 20% off and free shipping with the code circles at manscapedcom 20% off, free shipping, manscapedcom. Use the code CIRCLES, unlock your confidence and always use the right tools for the job. With Manscaped, this is a performance product and our next guest, he's huge on positive performance. 

11:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Interesting. Use the code. It probably supports the show. So if you're going to buy anyways, just use the code Like we need that support. All right, this show is free. 

11:24 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Look, I used to before I played lacrosse. You take gold bond. That was what we used to use. Use some gold bond, Fire it up. You're good to go. You know you're running, it's hot inside, Wearing the tight spandex or whatever. If you got underneath for your jock Manscaped, this escaped. 

11:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This product comes around easy replacement I'm gonna tell you this I I showered this morning. I put this on. If this works through the entire recording of this show, where it is so hot, it is one of the best products of all time, because my entire body we've recorded for 10 minutes. I'm roasting right now, just an absolute, not too bad stage five roast under these lights. So we'll know in the next hour or so, but let's get to it. 

12:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
College basketball well, by the way, rob, if, uh, if anyone here wants to sign up at pinnacle, rob's gonna do a full, full-fledged call. He's gonna answer, like questions about your betting, anything like that. He's gonna take his time. He's gonna give you I mean, we'll commit to five minutes if you sign up at pinnacle, you get a a minimum five-minute call with Pizzola. It's probably going to be longer than five minutes, but there are a lot of crazy people out there so minimum five minutes. Pizzola's going to take your calls direct. If you want to talk to me which I doubt it you could reach out anyways, but Pizzola's offering this. If you want to sign up at pinnacle, just tell them, get signed up, as well as gonna answer your questions. 

12:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's well worth it, no doubt depends, you know, value is in the eye of the beholder. I guess for some people they but some people be very interested in five minutes chatting with me there you go and it's a done deal. 

13:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's already confirmed it I already. 

13:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I did confirm it at lunch today. 

13:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I did confirm it at lunch today no, you did not confirm it, I just made this up. But it's actually a real offer. And if you want to talk with a combo, should we do an episode where we get phone-ins? I can do something like yeah, we have. 

13:17 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It could be dangerous I. 

13:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I used to produce radio and call-in shows. 

13:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, we can do them pre-recorded. Well, I know, I know. 

13:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We can edit it in post. It's nice. I would love to one day be able to do a live phone-in show, but we would not be able to. 

13:29 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I do a live phone-in show. 

13:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I know I've seen some of your stuff. I don't know how you do it, Zach. 

13:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Would we not get a phone-in show? People can. 

13:39 - Zack Phillips (Other)
For a Q&A episode. Anyways, maybe I'll see if I can set something up for the people. Maybe we'll set up like a voicemail system. 

13:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Seems like Pizzola doesn't want to do it. This is bringing back bad memories. 

13:51 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Dude the live call-ins can be very risky. 

13:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, they're. 

13:53 - Zack Phillips (Other)
If we edit out posts, what's the risk? 

13:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, there's no, there's just Zach's time, which is it's not worth. 

13:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What Guys if a guy literally comes in and starts swearing whatever Custin Opazola saying he wants to play savings. 

14:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, Opazola's bats. We could just cut that whole guy out or we don't, and I'll just sewer him Like I'll make a mockery of that person. I'm very good and quick on my feet. 

14:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm very good, especially when he's hitting seven-foot jumpers. 

14:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, let's get into our guest for today, no further ado John Fendley. We're now joined by our guest here on circles off episode 90. His name is John Fendler. You can follow him on Twitter at John Fendler. He is a trial attorney in Pennsylvania, new Jersey. He is the host of school of thought on the hit the books YouTube channel that's part of the hammer betting network. I'd highly recommend you check that out. He also posts his college basketball plays his college football plays at Betstamp. If you want to check him out on Betstamp, his user ID is JAF373. John Fendler, welcome to Circles Off. 

14:56 - John Fendler (Guest)
Thank you guys Appreciate the welcome and really appreciate you having me on. In general, we're getting to that point now that even the most casual fans have to start paying attention to college basketball, so the timing here really couldn't be any better. 

15:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean that would be me Exactly that I do bet some college basketball, but we approach the end of February and get into the beginning of March and all of a sudden I become a super fan. So it's that time of year for me and I think a lot of people share the same sentiment out there. So, John, we just like to get a background on every single one of our guests when we start here on Circles Off. So give us a little bit about your own personal background and how you got involved in the betting space. 

15:32 - John Fendler (Guest)
I really wish I had a more compelling or unique story to tell you, but, like so many of the guests you guys have had on, it's the same shit you've heard so many times. Started in college thought I was a genius hit. Started in college thought I was a genius, hit a bunch of bets to start and said, wow, I'm smarter than 95% of people doing this. Found out immediately no, no, no, you don't know anything. And of course, that trial and error that we're all familiar with and it just kind of built from there. Unfortunately, I had the displeasure of being a member of the covers forum and the sewer that. That was built up a little bit of a following on there and I think mainly because I could form like a complete sentence. People said maybe this guy does know something. But really I learned more on there of what not to do than actually what to do. But hey, that's a hell of a way to learn. 

16:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, for sure. I think a lot of us. You're probably around the same age as me. I grew up in the form space covers forms, for sure. You're probably around the same age as me. I grew up in the forum space covers forums, for sure, and I think I agree with you in that I learned a lot of what not to do from people in that forum. So I mean, it's a little bit different now. You don't get as much of that. Nowadays. Most of gambling content is on Twitter, but I think a lot of that might still apply nowadays, where the vast majority of the stuff that's circulated to people out there might be more of a hey, maybe you should try doing not necessarily the opposite, but avoiding a lot of the stuff that's filtered out there. 

16:54 - John Fendler (Guest)
Correct, and it's a little different now, also in that more people are putting their face on it, of course, all the marketing stuff that has blown up in the last several years, as opposed to the anonymous avatars that we all used to have back in the day. 

17:05
But yeah, it's the same idea it's, the majority of the content is just not going to be useful or actionable in any way. But yeah, I mean, as time went on, you know, I graduated college, went to law school and found I needed some sort of outlet away from school and this actually ended up kind of being a logical place to go, just because there were some of the same stuff, the same analysis that you would apply to law can be transferred to betting, especially with getting into some of the analytics stuff the last several years. So it really all just took off from there and I finally started winning consistently I don't know, maybe five years ago, give or take. 

17:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, on the law side of things and going to law school, becoming a lawyer, did you ever have any issues with telling other people that you were involved in the betting space? Because for many years there was this negative connotation, this taboo associated with betting. Did you ever think you'd be viewed differently amongst your peers because of that? 

17:56 - John Fendler (Guest)
That's a really good question. I think my answer is different now than it would have been, say, five years ago, just because I mean the very obvious fact that it's now one just legalized and, two, it's become so mainstream Lawyers. I don't think this will be breaking news to anyone in the audience, but lawyers have a very wide array of hobbies, ranging from wholesome things like being in a band or cooking or baking to some less wholesome shit. So this is kind of in the middle of the spectrum and a lot of lawyers of course, personality-wise lawyers have been known for betting for years, but it would be something that you wouldn't necessarily advertise, and I still don't really advertise it or walk around with it on my sleeve, but I certainly wouldn't hide from it at this point. 

18:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Interesting. Yeah, I mean I think obviously with the amount of regulation in the space now, there's definitely a different outlook on betting and the way that it's perceived, because more and more people are just in tune with it or doing it themselves nowadays, it doesn't have that negative connotation associated with it. Really quickly, just to rewind, john so got involved betting from an early age. Were you like a big sports fan in the early going? Did you play sports, any college sports, anything along those lines? 

19:06 - John Fendler (Guest)
I was always a big sports fan. Started watching football at, you know, four or five years old and NFL was certainly my first love. And then college football and then college basketball, kind of from there. But yeah, I mean certainly through high school. College Didn't play anything organized in college other than, you know, intramural flag football, but that was it. But high school, yeah, basketball. I played football for a year, baseball for a year. Didn't really stick with anything long-term and in hindsight, I'm glad. 

19:33
I didn't, because I don't think I would have enjoyed the college sports experience. So that ended up being a good decision overall. 

19:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, so we'll get into, I guess, the betting. Now you are primarily a college basketball better. At least you know that's what a lot of your content's based in. So if you want to just take some time and describe your approach to betting college basketball, you know mathematics versus subjectivity, things like that. 

19:56 - John Fendler (Guest)
It is almost all subjective because I have zero math background. In fact, I was an atrocious math student starting in middle school Once we got past, like the times tables and long division part of math. 

20:08
I was clueless. I couldn't do algebra, couldn't do geometry, trig, any of that shit. So the fact that now I enjoy this kind of metrics stuff is a surprise to me and certainly would be a surprise to any of my math teachers. But it's mostly subjective analysis of angles, the psychology stuff, trying to get into the weeds and find inefficiencies. I can't build a model, or you know, I can understand that the output's coming from it, but I can't build it. So it's mostly based on. Let me back up a little bit. 

20:39
I break the season down into a bunch of different segments. College basketball is unique in that we start early November when, no, no one's paying attention to it because it's prime sports season at that point. So those first two weeks are very different than the rest of the season because that's the worst time of the year for the model, like the kenpom model that everything's kind of based off of now. That model is as weak obviously in the beginning of the season as it will be at any point. But obviously the further along we the model gets sharper and sharper. Three months in now we're mid-late February. At this point that model is razor sharp, to the point that I'm more interested in the game. 

21:17
Let's say, a game that opens plus, you know should be a team should be plus eight according to the model, but it opens short at like plus six and a half. It gets bet down to five. Now we're three points off this model, which is operating at its peak efficiency at any point this year. I'm now more interested in that game, the favorite at five, because why is the market moving it that much when this model is as tight as it's been at any point this season? So my approach changes quite a bit throughout the year. I mean even from, you know, when we start pre-Thanksgiving. I've tried to start adapting by, like around Christmas, trying to find newer stuff, and I've gotten killed in the past where I have a great start to the year and then it all just kind of goes to hell in January because I'm trying to bet the same way I was in November. So that's been a big difference the last couple of years trying to find new ways to approach this. 

22:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For the viewers and the listeners. So I mentioned earlier that John tracks all of his plays on Betstamp at JAF 373. He has about 2,400 plays tracked at the time of this recording, plus 93 units 3.5% ROI, 2.6% CLV. This is, per John's words, 100% subjective-based analysis on games. So we've had episodes before where we talked about what's the PETA way, many ways to. I can't say skin a cat, peel the potato. 

22:43
Many ways to peel a potato right, and this is one where he's having the results by doing something completely different. I think you mentioned a lot of interesting points there, so I want to. I want to start with one, because I've noticed this exact same thing with my own personal betting over the years, where you have like this repeatable trend of I do really well at this point of the year and then I start to bleed units at this point. Do you then stop betting? Do you alter your betting at that point? What? What changes for you? Let's say, at the midway point of the college basketball season, or now end of February, as we head into conference tournaments and March Madness, what do you have to do differently? 

23:27 - John Fendler (Guest)
Well, the last couple of years prior to this year it was the exact same pattern. I would have this like at the start of the season that, like first two or three weeks, with these really soft lines, I'd go up like 20, 25 units I'm a single unit better Probably I would say medium, medium volume overall and I'd have this immediate spike at the beginning of the year and then it just looked like someone whose heart stopped, like it goes up and up and up and then it just flatlines and it's flat the rest of the year. I wasn't losing at that point, I was just not gaining anything, and so what I did this off season was try to look for new ways, and I think I spent too much time in the past like kind of trying to fight that Ken Palm Vegas model. I tried finding and saying okay, no, no, the model's wrong, my numbers are right, whereas now I'm trying to work. I'm almost saying let me, let me be with the model, and when the market goes against it, I'd rather be on the model side at this point in the year and I think that shift happens more in like early conference play, but we at that point you have, for most teams, have played maybe 12, 15 games, and some of that early season flukiness has now been filtered out. So now you have a pretty sustainable sample size of games and you can say, look, this model is pretty honed in and you start to trust it more and more. It didn't used to be this way. When I started 10 years ago, ken Palm was there, but it wasn't like Vegas was ripping lines straight from it like they do now. So that's probably been the biggest adjustment is to stop fighting that. 

24:46
I've also tried using I have used a lot a site called Shot Quality, which some of the listeners may have heard of at some point. This is a brand new thing in the last two to three years, completely different than the other analytics sites, because it's taking every shot taken in 363 gyms and it's saying what are the chances, with this player taking this shot from this spot on the floor, that that shot will go in or miss? Completely revolutionary for the game They've gotten into betting in the last year or so? That wasn't the initial purpose. It was really for coaches to sign up to try and generate the best shots. 

25:21
I ended up I found it just by chance when they first started, texted the guy who started it and said look, I'm not a coach, I'm a better. What are the chances I could pay you for access to this data? And he ended up giving me access to it pretty early. I didn't know at the time. I was the first better to have access to this stuff and it completely changed the way I watch. I can't even watch a game quote unquote normally. Now I can't walk into a bar, see a game on tv and watch it like a normal person, because now in my head every shot I see go up. I'm like calculating what are the chances that? 

25:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it goes in I uh sorry, go ahead, john, continue. 

25:54 - John Fendler (Guest)
No, I was always gonna say was that has made the difference too, because that that uh site is completely different than the vegas and palm torvik type models I can, uh, very much relate to what you're talking about, not even from a sports perspective. 

26:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I, when I was 10 years old, I picked up a guitar for the first time and I became obsessed with playing the guitar and then, over time, I started listening to music and I don't even hear the vocals anymore. All I pick up is the guitar. And I think there's certain people who get really in tune with something and they, they watch the game and they just see it totally differently from everyone else. So I mean that that just really stuck with me. I want to backtrack again one more time. So you talked about Ken Palm and, like the divergence from the spread and the act, the Ken Palm spread and the actual spread. Um, why does that happen? When you, when you notice that that's happening, is that specific to the ken palm model or the public models? Where that's t-rank? Uh, bartorvik site, uh, is it? They can't factor in injuries? Is it news that the, that the market is factoring in what? What do you typically see in those games where there's such a divergence from the? You know, the market spread versus the public model spread? 

27:08 - John Fendler (Guest)
I wish I could say it was something consistent, but it really does depend on the game. I'll give an example. We're recording on Tuesday. There's a game tonight and no one will hear this until at least Thursday, I believe. But there's a game tonight with Villanova and Xavier and the Ken Palm line is Xavier minus eight. 

27:25
But then, you know, nova recently got back one of its more important players who hadn't played all year. He came back about three weeks ago and every Nova game Now when that line opens they're getting that number is getting bet down or bet up in favor of Nova. So, oddly enough, yesterday when this line opened, instead of it opening eight, like it normally would, they opened at six and a half plus six and a half. It's down. As of this morning it was down to four and a half. So now we're three and a half points off the Ken Palm number. 

27:57
And I'm saying to myself you know, justin Moore, this player who came back, he's a solid player, he's not worth three and a half points and that's pretty much the only reason these NOVA games have been moving from the open. The same thing happened this past Saturday at Providence. I believe that one was NOVA plus seven. At Ken Palm that got down as low as three. So now we have a four point move for one player. That's the kind of stuff I'm looking for this time of year. And why is it happening? I think it's just people moving the market believe that he's worth X amount of points, and I just disagree. 

28:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well. So this is where I think that a subjective based handicapper might be able to gain an advantage over a mathematical modeler. So, especially in college basketball, where you have such a limited sample of a specific player, where maybe that data is not telling of what that player's actual worth is, I think this I don't bet a ton of college basketball, so this is like full disclosure for the audience out there. But of the people I bet a lot of college basketball, I don't I don't originate it myself, let's put it that way but of the people that send me numbers, where they tend to conflict with one another is whenever there's an injury on the game. It's what's the value of that injury? And they're constantly arguing. 

29:09
There's some people that are on the light sides of like it barely even matters. Some people will be like oh, this, this and that. But as a subjective handicapper, I feel like this is where the eye test might be more telling than the actual numbers on a player who's maybe played 15 games that season, especially if they're a freshman or a junior and they're getting a lot of minutes. I don't know if you feel like that's a built-in edge that you might have over modelers or whether or not. You think that I'm just overstating it. 

29:37 - John Fendler (Guest)
No. 

29:37
I do think it's an edge, it's hard. It's difficult because you can't quantify it in any way, you can't say it's not repeatable, it's all subjective kind of vibes based, which I hate using that word, even. But that's kind of how it is. But I will go deeper and look and say you know how they performed with this player on or off the court. But college sports in general, because we're dealing with not professionals are so are so fickle in general, because we're dealing with, not professionals are, so are so fickle. 

30:03
Uh, there was a game on sunday, memphis game time call with their best player, kendrick davis, who may be, you know, probably the best point guard in the country at houston. And you could tell the line was like kind of straddling that like will here, will he play spot, and it was like sitting memphis plus 13 and a half for quite a while and then on twitter, like a half hour before the, before the game, you start seeing videos pop up like he's shooting around, he's taking jumpers, he's dressed, line starts to wiggle a little bit towards Memphis and then all of a sudden he's ruled out. So the line goes from plus 13 and a half to plus 15. And I think back in the day I would have said, oh shit, kendrick Davis is out, like I can't play Memphis. But now there's this. 

30:40
You know it started in the NBA the quote unquote Ewing effect, when Patrick Ewing would sit out for the Knicks, yeah, and somehow they played better and it made no sense, of course, but that is really, really true in college basketball and I fought it hard for years because it didn't. It just didn't make sense to me. I'm too rational to understand how this would happen, but I've embraced it now. Something about it that guys know their best players out and there's no way to explain it, but most of the time they play better and if you wait for the move to come, you're getting a better number I mean there there is like a a hypothesis as to why that happens, right? 

31:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so I'm in the same camp as you, right? Like I'll tell you, I I predominantly bet hockey. I can't even tell you how many times I've been burned my ROI on player news this year. So, like a star player being out or a switch from starting goalie to backup goalie is probably negative 10% ROI or worse, whereas all the rest of my plays are very strong and I fought it for a long time. And now it's like there might be something here. 

31:42
But if you're trying to rationalize it, I mean, there is like an element of we don't have our best player. Everybody else has to step it up. Tonight type of situation, right, I played sports. I didn't play it in an elite level, I'm not a pro athlete or anything like that, but there'd be times where player on your team is hurt or just has to miss the game and you know that everyone's got to step it up. You play a little bit tighter. There is a rational explanation for why it happens. But again, we deal with these don't happen a ton, right? And it could just be the range of variance, right, it could just be a factor. I wrestle with this a lot. It sounds like you're more of the. You know I'm trying to word this properly, but you've come to like you watch enough games. You feel like this is an actual factor in it. You cannot quantify it, but you're willing to trust your gut that this is a factor. 

32:43 - John Fendler (Guest)
Yeah. 

32:44
I hate admitting that, but it's true. And you know, I wouldn't have bet that game, like at that line that was sitting 13 and a half for hours and hours, like if it hadn't moved on the news I probably would have just passed. But now it's like all right, now I get another point and a half and I already think they're going to get this mythical bump of sorts. The other thing I've thought of and I'm sure someone else smarter than me has floated this before but when you know the start player's out right before game time, the other team maybe is deflated too. The other team says, oh, they don't have their best guy, and their motivation, their edge, kind of goes down with it. Again, not something we could ever quantify, but perhaps that's also contributing to it. 

33:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I will say this, like and and maybe this is the point that you're going to make, johnny I still think that it's a valuable bet regardless, because if you know the market is going to move on a player being out and you can get three or four points of closing line value, it's a valuable bet in the sense that you then have opportunities right. You can either keep that bet or you can play back at it at another number. You could play back more at another number, like I'm not suggesting that people don't do that Like if you, if you know the market is going to react in a certain way, I think you should bet it regardless. 

33:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So yeah, I've been quiet for a while here. A lot of thoughts, lots to unpack for sure. So, going all the way back to the first point, I think one thing you mentioned was when somebody's out, you might get that extra half point. You might get this. Maybe it overcorrects oh, this guy's not worth that amount. Whatever, what I will say on that is like injury-based news, especially of star players in the NBA, is very easily quantifiable at this point in time. 

34:22
There was a point, maybe three years ago, four years ago, when all the injury news started to happen and a lot of players were resting. And then you enter the COVID bubble and you had rest and stuff like that where it was very easy to make money on that and you didn't need to know what you were doing, you just needed to. You know this guy's out for this team, okay, go bet the other team Done. Nowadays, if you try to do that same thing in today's day, I can almost guarantee the average better is getting burned on NBA injury steam chasing this year and probably last year as well. It's very much more. It's a lot more intricate at this time and that's because over time it shapens up and it's efficient now in terms of what players are worth. 

35:00
And then also the news. Although the news is still coming out at that exact second, there's a lot more anticipation of the news. So a player, you know if yannis is going to be in or out for his next game. The line doesn't just assume he's in right away and then, when he's out, move all those points. It's assuming like a 50 50 chance of him playing and then it's adjusting it's like the memphis guard um that you spoke about like an in-between line so correct. 

35:27
So a few points to make here. I guess to add to the conversation is number one in the nba it's very pronounced as to what a player is worth and that's because you have usually multiple years of history on that player, as well as the team performance within college, especially near the beginning of the season prior to the tournaments and stuff like that absolutely can find an edge on the replacement value and the injury value we talked about in college football, where it's significantly less important. Definitely, definitely an edge in college basketball is if you've got inside information on who's going to play and who's not going to play and then you can scale that back and find replacement level value of the players that are going to come in behind them for sure. Also in doing some work. 

36:06
I know a lot of people have mentioned um. The higher the spread, the more what John saying actually does make sense. So if you've got something where it's like a 17 point favorite and their list, they're losing their best guy. Oftentimes that best guy was not going to play as big a role in that game, given that they were already 17 or 20 point favorites If you dial that back to a pick them, to a pick them. 

36:31 - John Fendler (Guest)
It's a significant difference. 

36:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I don't know about the whole angle there that you guys are mentioning. I don't know how much I buy into that where it's like, ah, if they're losing their best player, they I don't know how much I buy into that where it's like, oh, if they're losing their best player, they actually get a bump. Still just doesn't factually make sense to me. I guess if we had years of back-tested data on that and we can quantify it, great. But definitely at the higher spreads it's something where you have to look at the usage as well for those players. And if they don't have that best player, like, how many minutes were they losing of that player? Losing of that player? He might've might've sat the second half anyways, he might've might've been buzzing around there. 

37:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You never know. Yep, that makes a lot of sense. Um, john, on your end. So I want to pick up on something that Johnny said here, which is access to inside information in college basketball. Right, and a lot of people ask me the same questions about other sports, but I'm curious your take on college basketball. So you feel really strongly in a game, you feel confident about it, you go out and bet that game, and then the market moves away from you and now, all of a sudden, three hours later, or you wake up the next morning, or whatever the case is you're getting a better price than you were previously. Is that something that you know? You basically pause at that point and take a step back and say, oh, maybe I don't know something here, or are you confident enough in your opinions to say that I actually like this price a lot better? I'm either going to average my cost down, whatever the case may be. How do you approach that type of situation? That's a great question, because more often, than not. 

37:57 - John Fendler (Guest)
The line is moving with me. You know, when it does go against me, I will pause for a little bit and I'll look and say did I miss an injury? Did I miss something public? But I accepted in general a long time ago that I'm not going to have access to a lot of the quote unquote inside stuff. It's just not possible. I'm not. I would tell you honestly if I was tapped into a bunch of different sources of injury information. I'm really not. So there's going to be stuff that I'm simply not going to be able to be privy to and I think I would drive myself to insanity if I said every time well, there's something missing and I don't know what it is and I can't do anything until I find out, I'll do my diligence within reason to try and figure out if there's something out there. 

38:37
But I'm not going to be able to cover everything for all these 360 something teams. So if it's something that was out there and I missed it, well that's on me. But if it was something that no one knows about except the trainer and the manager and the guy's girlfriend, there's nothing I can do about that. So yeah, I will re-bet it at a better price, as long as I'm not missing something that's easily accessible. 

38:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Essentially, when we talk about actually betting here, john, um, a lot of times we talk about, like you know, the how you come up with the plays and stuff like that, and that's only really half the battle, if not less, actually physically placing the bets, getting down significantly different. So we know you're based I guess primarily, are you based primarily in new jersey? 

39:18
I know you're, uh, doing something in pennsylvania as well, which is also so you live in, you live in pennsylvania, all right, got it, so you're. So you're still still regulated state for sports betting, although less uh, less outs than new jersey. So how is that coming into your day-to-day now when you're betting, like, are you betting mostly for yourself? You know morning, night, how, which sports books using a variety, like if you want to get into that a little bit, it's a variety offshore, uh, domestic, obviously, like like anyone, as you guys have talked about many times on the show. 

39:49 - John Fendler (Guest)
You know the regulated sports books are difficult to get down at for anyone who shows a pulse. So yeah, I I have to do more offshore than I'd like, a little bit of PPH more than I would like, but that's just part of the deal at this point. But as far as timing, I pretty much know exactly the number I want on any given game. You know, barring a late injury or something like that, I know what I want. So if the line opens, you know an hour later and the numbers are there, I'll just play it at that point, even if the limits are a little lower. Sure, you know, I'll play it at that point. Same thing is true at the end. If I want plus seven and I can't get plus seven until five minutes before tip, that's fine, I'll wait until tip off, and if I never get it, then I'll just pass. So I ended up kind of betting. 

40:33
There's no consistent pattern for when I bet, just because it's all based on when my number comes, if it comes at all, but I try and do. It helps to not sleep much. I I sleep five hours a night. I also have a seven month old baby. 

40:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I certainly don't sleep now. Congrats, though, by the way. 

40:52 - John Fendler (Guest)
So I've gotten used to this, this lifestyle. So you know I do a good amount of research late at night. Place come in at one, two in the morning. So, it's, it's all over the map. 

41:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We've had a few questions come in at one, two in the morning, so it's it's all over the map. 

41:03
We've had a few questions come in in regards to this topic that I'm about to ask you about. On bet stamp, most of your bets are like flat unit size. So obviously when you're doing flat unit, if you're saying I'm betting and again I know these are not the numbers but if you're betting a hundred bucks a game, you can typically get a hundred dollars in the morning, a hundred dollars at night, a hundred dollars at night, a hundred dollars overnight, a hundred dollars right before the game starts, right, and it's easy at that point, given that you mentioned right now, sometimes you'll bet early, sometimes you'll bet it late. A lot of times what we get questions on, in regards to college basketball specifically, is in the morning the numbers are more readily available, but you can't get enough down before the game. You can get enough down for a lot of people, but it might not be as sharp of a number. So question for you is how do you tackle this situation and do you see significantly lower ROIs in the stuff that you're playing right before the game? 

41:51 - John Fendler (Guest)
Yeah, this is something I've wrestled with a lot and I think I'll go back to that very beginning of the season as the best example that first week the market is so volatile because the numbers are so weak. Of course there's one game in particular that jumps out. This year I think it was the most movement I got on any total. It was Charleston versus North Carolina opened like 150. And I said this game is like 10, 12 points off, which sounds insane. You would never get that outside of the first week or two of the season. So I have a choice at that point. Do I either take the number at low limits and say hey, at least something's better than nothing, or do I sit there with my thumb up my ass, knowing someone else? 

42:27
is going to bet it because it's that far off. And then I'm betting. Instead of getting 150, over 150, I could play 154, 155, whatever it is. I think that game closed like 162. And I kept. You know, I hit it every book I could possibly get to. When I had to play a couple numbers higher than 150, it didn't end up mattering. But yeah, I wrestle with this all the time. I would rather people I'm sure think I'm crazy, especially the pro guys. I would rather get something down it's decent at my number that I know is going to move a decent amount in my favor then sit there and watch the numbers pass me by. That's just my philosophy. I'd rather get put something in my pocket, even if I'm sacrificing a little bit on the back end. 

43:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean there's listen, there's a math equation. I know you're not a math guy, so you can completely dismiss that because you can calculate, kind of your expected value based off of your betting times. But it's different for every person, right, and there'll be people that listen to this interview that are probably furious with your last answer because they're like what the fuck, john? Like you're betting small limits, you're causing the line to move three or four points here, like wait it out a little. 

43:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wouldn't be surprised. It really does depend on the amount For sure. If you're betting if your standard unit is $250,. If you're betting, if your standard unit is $250, then there's no reason to ever wait and it just doesn't make financial sense. If you're betting, I would say even under 10 grand a game, it almost doesn't make sense to wait. 

43:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Agreed and a lot of times it doesn't. And I think that's like kind of what I was getting at is like to each their own right. It's going to be different for every single person. You know, if I was producing the exact same numbers, that if I, if I, if I was a twin of john and thought in the exact same way um, I don't have a job, right like I'm reliant on my betting to supplement my income I wouldn't be able to bet uh overnight market and college basketball, for example. But to each their own uh type of situation. I'm. 

44:19
I'm very interested in the stuff about like betting before the game time because we're conditioned to believe in uh closing line being the most efficient line for the major sports. And you know you mentioned betting five minutes before game time. If we'll put this up in in on the screen as well, so the viewers can see your historicals on bet stamp for an entire college basketball season. But basically, your ROI continues to go up. Your closing line value, as the year goes on, goes further down. So does that concern you? For one, if you're betting into February or March, you're not attaining the same closing line values you did earlier in the year. Do you end up having less volume. I just want you to talk me through that a little bit, because I'm sure that's something you've noticed as well it is, and there's been years where well every year the clb will go down every year, inevitably just the tighter market. 

45:11
It's going to go down. 

45:11 - John Fendler (Guest)
I don't know, I imagine there's not a person alive who can maintain that clb from the first two or three weeks. The rest of the I don't know how you would, but no, it doesn't concern me that it's going down. 

45:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The reason. 

45:22 - John Fendler (Guest)
I'm betting more often now, closer to tip. That's something that's more so happening in the last month. It's kind of related to what I was talking about earlier, where I think the market just overcorrects on injuries or on a particular angle. What we're into now, as we get closer to the tournament, is you get these narratives of like teams in these quote-unquote must win games, this team must win this game because they're on the bubble, that type of shit, and that is so. You know, it's probably the worst angle in college basketball but in my opinion I'm sure people disagree. But you know, 10 days ago, oregon uh playing ucla at home, a game that they quote-unquote had to win. It's their last big chance to get a quality win. 

46:03
And Ken Palm had Oregon plus five. First of all, the line already opened short, it opened three, so we're already two points off. Throughout the day it's going ticking down, ticking down, ticking down. It gets down to one and a half Oregon plus one and a half Five, ten minutes before tip and I was watching it all day and finally decided to move. So yeah, I'm not getting any CLB on that number, but I think I have a bigger edge five minutes before tip than I would have at any other point that that line's been available. 

46:31
So, I think that's the way I kind of offset the CLB quote unquote losses by finding these edges, by getting the best of the number, even if it's a number that's been steadily, you know, it's been going the other way all day. I'm still getting the best of it and as long as I'm not missing an injury or suspension, then I generally feel okay about that. 

46:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
One thing I love about a lot of the creators that we have at the Hammer Betting Network is that a lot of us speak our mind, and I think you're no different than that on Twitter. I followed you for a while on Twitter. You're just you'll put it out there. If you think something's bullshit or like, don't do this, don't do that, and we have a lot of people that are like that. It's sometimes a blessing, it's sometimes a curse, like obviously there there's a lot of things that that come with that all together. But you just mentioned too, but like the lazy narrative of this team needs to win games. One of my biggest pet peeves is when a game is labeled as an upset if the lower ranked team won the game, even though they might've been a big underdog in the market. Does this type of stuff bother you? And, on top of that, just to further it, what are some of your biggest pet peeves in the betting space or the college hoop space? 

47:44 - John Fendler (Guest)
I would really be underselling it if I said it bothered me. I am absurdly triggered by it, to the point that I cannot focus on anything else. 

47:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's one of those things Madness upset, these are the best. 

47:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah well, the tournament it's going to happen. Right, you're going to have like a 10 seed favorite over a seven and it's upset because people are filling out their brackets. Upset city. 

48:07 - John Fendler (Guest)
I completely lose my shit, unfortunately. But it's just a personality quirk, I guess. But this doesn't happen in other sports. I mean a little bit in college football, but this doesn't happen in the NFL. For example, right Like the Bears, are seven point dogs to I don't know the Niners or something, and the Bears win that game. Everyone, from the most recreational better to the sharpest better to the people on ESPN, everyone's like oh yeah, that's an upset. But in college basketball, you know, when number 15 goes on the road to an unranked team with their six-point dogs, obviously we all know what you would have to pay to get that plus money on that unranked team. So, yeah, it drives me absolutely up the wall, it's so I mean, yeah, it's just as lazy as it gets. There's no excuse now, in 2023. If you're on TV or you're in media or you're on the radio, five years ago was there? Is it possible? You didn't know the spread, sure, but there's no chance now that that's the case oh, in. 

49:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
when you look at, this used to happen in nhl and nba as well, though based on the seating for the uh playoffs for nhl there would be back in the day, the three versus the six was the key, because you had to put the lowest team yep. Oftentimes what I mean by that is that the three division you had to put the lowest team yep. Oftentimes what I mean by that is the three division winners had to get the one, two and three seed of the eight in the nhl, but oftentimes it'd be like one division which was really poor and that team probably would have been like the seven or the eight and they ended up being the three. So they faced the six, which is strong, and then it's like, wow, the upset. They like they won, these guys got upset and it would have been a favorite and that stuff always used to be weird for me. 

49:42
But man, like you said, john, in today's day you cannot possibly have that, even the upsets, for, like UFC kind of just fixed this this year. But they used to say stuff was an upset because the guy won the belt off the champ and the guy would be like minus 450 to win and who was like challenging for the belt, and they'd be like he upsets him. 

50:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like they, we have a new champion in town, but it's crazy. But this is all rooted like it all comes from the same source, right, which is just shitty ranking systems that that causes. Like if the if there was no ap poll and it was just like, okay, they, you know, I don't I'm gonna say vegas odds makers now, but it could be whatever. Like market odds dictated what the seating was. We would never have this happen, right, but it's because there's like these arbitrary, like the number one seed just loses some random game and they drop to four for no reason, even though they'd be favored over every other team in the country. 

50:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like none of that makes sense one of the favorite features we put into bet stamp. My favorite feature is um, just all we did is, right beside the odds of the game, we put a little percentage like a red and green percent. All it is is the money line odds for the game. Stripped out the vig, so you have best, best money line, best money line on the other side. Strip out the vig and then you put a percentage what that is is roughly accurate of what the percentage chances are that each team will win the game or each fighter will win the fight, whatever it might be. 

51:08
If you don't think that's accurate, you can win a lot of money betting. So it's, in theory, the most accurate thing we have, and I've been pushing this as like an alternate use for people who don't even bet on sports, who even friends and family guys, girls, I know that that have have the app on the phone, even just to support friends and family, and they will use it sometimes and be like oh, can you believe this fighter is only 29 chance to win and I'm like wow, like that is a small feature that just made you so much more knowledgeable now than all the commentators who are commentating this shit I've tried so hard to make headway with some of my friends who are sports fans, but they're you know the definition of the casual better and I have made no headway whatsoever in trying to get through on this particular topic. 

51:51 - John Fendler (Guest)
But I will keep trying. But I will say just as a broader point about college basketball in general the sport is. I don't know how, but the sport is covered the same way in 2023 that it was covered in 1993, even though we now have access to incredible data that was inconceivable even 15, 20 years ago. Like I said, you know where every shot and every gym in the country is being taken. Now it's all trackable. But media, who covers the sport, really has not evolved at all, for different reasons, and I can't say I follow some of the other sports well enough to say if it's the same type of issue. I know you guys are huge hockey fans. There's a whole world of hockey analytics, but you know I have heard you say that it's being integrated into the broadcast, at least in the NHL, that there's been some attempt to incorporate more analytic stuff, more betting stuff. That really hasn't happened at all in college basketball. For the most part it's still stuck in the dark ages. 

52:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
See, this is one of my biggest pet peeves in sports. I mean, you do see a little bit more evolution in the other sports, like the NFL has. I mean, the problem is a lot of these are like second stream experiences or secondary broadcasts where you can see all these advanced stats. They're not incorporated into the main one just yet, but like it drives me crazy when I watch an nfl broadcast and whether the commentator says it or a graphic comes up on screen that says this is the number one offense in the league and it's based off of yards per game or points per game, like they don't even reference what it is sometimes it's total points, doesn't even factor that one team passed the buy already. 

53:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's what this is when they go nuts, you know what I mean. But or even even the ones in the nhl. Sorry to derail a little, but they'll show the points and they'll be like if the season ended today, these guys would be the number two seats, like they have. They literally have four games in hand. 

53:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I know like they play four games more than every other team, or sorry, four games more. 

53:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Just at least put it as like a points per game or something like. You gotta do something. 

53:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I, I, I don't, I don't know why this still happens, honestly, like is, is it that we, we are the outsiders in the sense that, like, we've evolved too early, like is? Is that the case? Because, because I watch a lot of the broadcasts and I, honestly, maybe this is just a me problem, but like I get stressed out sometimes watching these and like I get angry, like I literally get angry watching a broadcast, saying like why are they talking about, why are they showing this? And I wonder if it's like just some of the betters in the space. 

54:19 - John Fendler (Guest)
I've just evolved earlier than everyone else, I think that's pretty much exactly it, and I'm projecting here or assuming, because I don't know any TV network producers to ask them this question directly. 

54:30
But I think what they probably tell you is well, we don't think the audience, the casual broad audience, is interested in this kind of stuff right now. But that kind of creates a chicken or the egg question. If you show the audience this stuff, maybe they would become interested in it. You'll never know. But they sit there and say well, you know, we don't think this would have any broad appeal, and that might be true. I mean, certainly that's the approach that Turner takes for the tournament, when they bring on Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith who don't watch college basketball all year, and anyone who's a fan of the sport can sit there and say these guys are idiots, they don't know what's going on and it's obviously it's apparent within 15, 20 seconds of watching them. But that is a conscious decision by the network to bring in a very NBA centric audience. So I think that's probably what it's rooted in. We'll get better over time, hopefully, but probably going to be a while. 

55:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, we'll see. I feel bad sometimes for a lot of the broadcasters, though, because they're doing so much different things, so many different things, and a lot of times you're covering different sports. And think about. Think about it. If you have no job, you do nothing else other than bet on college basketball. You see it and like, yeah, of of course, how do you not know all these teams? How you not know all these things? 

55:40
But when you look at it from a broadcaster's perspective like these guys have families, they have things like that. They go to their jobs like you can't be expected, there's so many games right for college. And then now you talk about nba and stuff like that, and oftentimes, like stephen a smith, he gets like ridiculed by the sharp community about like this guy doesn't know what he's talking about, and then you really break it down. You're like they're asking this guy to cover so many different sports there and yes, basketball you should know. But then it's like you'll have to give nfl hot takes and then I'll have to give whatever, and they put him on the mma broadcast once, or a boxing one or something, and he, he didn't know. It's like how are you going to blame the guy though, like how can he possibly be expected that at his age he's expected to just follow every single sport in that much detail? Like it's not going to happen. 

56:23
It's the mistake is like from the network side of things putting him on and calling him an expert in MMA I you can't really expect the guy to go through all that. So a lot of times I do feel bad for the broadcasters themselves. 

56:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
but the same probably happens with producers, right Like no-transcript, but 2013 to 2023 in a lot of sports. You'd look back and you'd be like, ah, you know what? This really hasn't involved a whole lot. 

57:17 - John Fendler (Guest)
It really hasn't. But I do recognize that they can't produce like we can't be the target audience. I truly get that there's nothing produced, for the most part on TV or in any mainstream capacity. That's going to be. That's going to say we want you, john Fendler, to be the target median viewer. 

57:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's never going to happen, and I've accepted that and that's fine. 

57:38 - John Fendler (Guest)
But I do wonder, if you know, as you guys have covered, as this all becomes more easily understood, if there's going to be any sort of shift. I think for some of these guys, especially the older broadcasters, like you're never going to get Dick Vitale to be able to understand any of this stuff, and that's fine. You wouldn't expect him to be able to. But I I'm hopeful, as the younger generation starts matriculating upwards, that you see something of a change. But no, I I fully understand why they can't make it, uh, the center of the broadcast well, I mean, listen, there there is. 

58:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I had. I got into this argument on twitter that it was the most triggering argument ever that we covered on this show before when, when I basically said that the nfl nfl can't exist like at the capacity that it is right now, without sports betting and fantasy, and that triggered a lot of people, which I I mean again maybe I'm just living in my own shell but a lot of these games that we're in canada here, it's a little bit different in terms of what we get in terms of accessible college basketball games. We pay for a package. We don't know what we're gonna get, but, like tonight, we're getting missouri state and murray state. Right, who that? 

58:42
banger who is watching that game that isn't betting on that game, right, like, especially in canada. So, like I feel like even in the us, like it's on cbs sn I don't even know what that is in the us, john, you probably know what it is. But, like, unless you're a missouri state fan or a murray state fan, like the rest of the people watching that game, like 90 plus have wagered on that game, do you like? Should we not appeal to that audience in some capacity? 

59:13 - John Fendler (Guest)
I would think so. We also have now and you guys would have this too, because it's's it's a internet based, but ESPN plus, which I think does hockey as well Yep. 

59:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, we, we, we're blocked from ESPN plus. 

59:23 - John Fendler (Guest)
Okay, all right, so that is now, within the last couple of years, has changed college basketball viewing, because on a college basketball Saturday with 150 games, just using that app you can get see it. The quality is often pretty bad. Right, who is watching it other than the fans and the betters? But it's like a stuffy broadcast. That just hasn't changed at all. I would yeah, I, I would love to see more of it. And, rob, I heard your. I heard you guys talk about the whole NFL thing. Obviously, I agree. I wonder if the NFL, specifically the league, is still, even though they've embraced some betting partnerships and whatnot, if they're still a little bit hesitant to go all the way in, if they're still worried about pissing off older fans who still view gambling as some sort of heresy, and they're hesitant for that reason? 

01:00:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it is what it is. 

01:00:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's an element like professionalism that goes with these broadcasts as well. But like espn plus tons of games tonight, st louis at richmond, right, why not put you know your play-by-play guy? And you got a guy or or woman on each side, won that bet on st louis and won that bet on richmond. And let's go do a broadcast with people for opposite sides, with a play-by-play person. 

01:00:40 - John Fendler (Guest)
Yeah, that was I think Barstool did that. 

01:00:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But these are good. Like this is. I say it's good ideas or whatever, but this is like what the younger demographic. This is gonna be the evolution eventually. Why not start it now? Why do we have all these dinosaur broadcasts with like a 77, and, by the way, I'm not suggesting that every 70 year old person that's a play-by-play person or a color person cannot do their job or cannot evolve. But this is like. 

01:01:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is the new age okay, but people don't realize how. I think most people uh in the space don't have a clue about how many uh views, concurrent views, these broadcasts actually get. And I I do have a semi good idea for some sports college basketball I got no clue. But for nhl, for example, like I know roughly what a tuesday night leaf game does in terms of viewership and concurrent same with like saturday night games and how those go and the numbers on there, when, when you see like scale that down and see like a college basketball game and how many people are there, if you had a bet cast type thing where it's guys talking about betting, we've run some stuff on the Hammer Betting Network where we might even see a couple hundred concurrent views for NFL and stuff like that. 

01:01:51
Obviously the NFL broadcast is doing way more views than that concurrent. But when you scale it down to college basketball, we're not talking about millions of views concurrent for these games, way more views than that concurrent. But when you scale it down to college basketball, it's not us. We're not talking about millions of views concurrent for these games. We're probably not even talking about hundreds. For some of the games it's probably less than 10 000. And then you're like okay, if it's less than 10 000 people viewing this on espn plus, or maybe it's 20 000 or 50 000 concurrent viewing it, then if there's a betting show that's going to garner 5,000 concurrent and growing, that might be something worthwhile. 

01:02:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But who knows? 

01:02:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It all depends on the numbers of how many people are actually viewing these on ESPN Plus or on whatever thing, and I guess they have the numbers there to probably make better decisions than us. 

01:02:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just wonder, like if we Sometimes I take a step back and I'm like do we see this in this lens? Because we are the ones that consume betting every day. We bet on sports we want, but there's obviously a cultural shift that's happening towards it and I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet, especially when we consider regulation is now. It's not new Like this started in many of the us states several years ago now people are betting. It's I, I, I'm. 

01:03:04
I'm just actually floored that it hasn't happened yet or that one of the major networks hasn't just drawn a line in the sand and said we're going to do this going forward, so we're going to have a betting analyst as part of the broadcast. We see it with mma. The ufc does it as part of their broadcast. Now they're embracing it and we still don't see it anywhere else. But I don't know. I think that you want to engage the younger demographic. They're betting, they're playing fantasy. Obviously, you have to be a certain age to bet. I'm surprised we're not incorporating this into, or at least starting to work it into, the broadcasts where it's not just shoved down your throat or it doesn't hit you over the head, but it's like people are starting to get introduced to it a little bit more. 

01:03:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, show idea Day one of March Madness. Watch along Again. If you could just stream it with the game on would just be so much better. Obviously, with the rights you can't do that, but but picture this. Watch along, they won march madness. You get like a guy who's betting, good personality or a group of people and then they just like place their bets, live bets throughout. They have pre-game bets. Like, oh, this game's about to start, I'm getting this in pre-game. Here we go, whatever the viewers at home can follow along, tail those same bets and sweat the action with them. And then, if they're tailing all the same bets, their broadcast would in theory flip back Like, okay, this game's going to the end, we got to watch it along. Think about how good of an experience, fun of an experience, that would be. 

01:04:30 - John Fendler (Guest)
So this is betting red zone college basketball. 

01:04:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Red zone for college basketball or an NBA night or an NHL night where you could just follow along with bets on the thing, and then if a game's going OT, like hey, let's go to OT, we got to get it, and if you don't have a bet in there, jam a liver in right before the shootout. That's what you got to do, like. Think about how fun that. Then you're actually using betting for what it's intended to be, which is like a incredible night of entertainment, and you're going to lose 100 tonight. You're going to win 95 tomorrow. All in, you might lose a couple percent, but it's well worth the time spent bet casts. 

01:05:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Bet casts are the way of the future. They haven't. They're not happening at scale yet, but five years from now these are going to be happening at scale you do. 

01:05:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Someone has, like you have to watch with the game because this is happening on youtube without the games right right. But it can't, you can't have like it's so hard. 

01:05:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But here's what I'm saying Like. So me and Eric Eager on Hammer HQ one night we're just doing a halftime show of a game and all of a sudden there was like just thousands of people flooding into the comments all at once and I had no idea what was going on. And it was a bigger YouTube creator, I think, named Tom Grossi, that sent over his entire following that was watching his stream over to ours really quickly and they're like oh, you know, I can't remember what they're saying like we're taking over this and that I was like I couldn't process the amount of comments that were coming in in real time. But after it was done, I figured out what was going on. 

01:05:54
I went to check out this guy's channel. He's doing like 100K views of Sunday night football watch-alongs and he doesn't even have the game up on screen. He just has the time and he's just watching the game. Half the time he's not even talking. He's drinking a beer, he's a Packers fan, whatever. And then I started to look and there's views there's ones that are even bigger Like this is happening, just not on TV right now. It's happening in a digital setting, but eventually it will happen on TV. 

01:06:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It will find its way there. Well, the Manning cast, I guess, was a good attempt at it. 

01:06:26 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Steve Dangle. Yeah, yeah. 

01:06:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But Dangle, it's not really betting centric. It's like, in fact, I do like Steve Dangle, for those of you who don't know he's a Canadian YouTuber or whatever. But Steve Dangle for those of you don't know, he's a Canadian YouTuber, whatever, but it's it's. 

01:06:41 - John Fendler (Guest)
It's tough to watch that one to be honest, if they could do the sky cam stuff for all these like alternate angle type things. I mean March Madness. For years they've done these, these homework broadcasts where they put like the very, very biased announcers each team gets their own channel. So if you're a big Kansas fan, you can watch the Kansas channel. If you're a big Duke fan, you Duke channel. Oddly enough, that often leads to people just stumbling into the wrong channel and being like these announcers are so biased. 

01:07:02
This is ridiculous. So if you could do that, of course you could do a betting-centric one too. 

01:07:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, that would be cool. John, you also bet on some college football. We noticed just by scrubbing through your BetSan profile Doing quite well on that as well. For for ncaa f, any uh plans to scale that up for this next year, like you know? Where does that? Where's that coming from? Is it the same subjective analysis there? Well, I mean as far as the volume, I was thinking about that. 

01:07:27 - John Fendler (Guest)
uh, yesterday, when I was thinking about ideas for the show and you know my clb in 2021, almost 200 bets was 4.2%, and then last year, a little over 200 bets was 2.9%. But last year ended up being kind of a mediocre year. I only ended up 53.3% win rate. 

01:07:50
And I started thinking maybe my volume just has to be higher, because I'm getting great CLV, but my volume probably isn't quite high enough for that to pay off. I don't want to get into that irritating CLV, but my volume probably isn't quite high enough for that to pay off. I know I don't want to get into this. You know that irritating CLV debate that comes from Twitter, but obviously the more bets you have, the bigger the sample, the more it's going to pay off for you. So I'm starting to think that I just need to bet more volume. In general, I have enough of an edge, I think. So yes, as far as scaling, I would like to get involved in more games, but it's something I'll have to look at. Once college basketball ends and we have five months before football starts, that's probably the number one thing for me to look at. 

01:08:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think there are definitely people out there that value your college football a lot. For those that don't know, john was writing for the Hammer HQ during college football season and he put out an article early in the week about things to keep an eye on. Basically. As soon as we posted that article within two minutes, those lines started to move very quickly, so there's people looking out for it. I think that's probably one of the truest indicators that you have something of value and that you should consider maybe putting more volume down overall. 

01:08:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh and and 200 plays. That's, like you know, maybe less than than a tenth of what you're doing for college basketball. So it makes sense that you might have a break-even year or a slight positive year. 

01:09:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But that's still roughly 20 plays a week, right? I mean, if you count bowl season, maybe 15. 

01:09:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No less less. 

01:09:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's more than 10 weeks yeah, so 15 roughly right. 

01:09:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, it depends. If you count bowl season, yeah, I guess it depends, but it's actually not that low of volume in retrospect. Compared to nfl, you probably have less volume, like how many plays you have for nfl? Uh, six to eight, so not so, not like around like large like a normal size and normal season. 

01:09:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, total I I'd have to go through, but it's a couple hundred, probably that. That like a normal size play. Let's put it that way. 

01:09:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, no, it makes sense right. 

01:09:37 - John Fendler (Guest)
So in one way I could potentially and I've done this the last two years one way I could get a little more volume. I've gotten involved in the FCS market, which is like the wild west that that shit is. I have not seen any other market like this, because it doesn't open at least in the U? S doesn't open till like 9am Saturday morning. You have games kicking off at noon, so you have games kicking off at noon, so you have three hours for this market to settle. Nobody knows what the fuck's going on in general. Uh, so that's. You know. I've gotten some pretty wild clv there, but it's not like I trust it. It's not like the game starts like oh I beat the number by five points, I still walk into that like shit. This can go a bunch of different ways yeah, fcs, the absolute hammer but but at least you can. 

01:10:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You at least, when you lose that bet you can fall back on. Well, at least I got a good number on the bet right. It's much worse than the market moving five points against you and then losing that bet as well. 

01:10:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, so John, as we mentioned, was doing the written stuff for the hammer and recently there's been more of a focus from Rob on the video stuff. So just also for the listeners here, if you are coming and you're you were a fan of john's articles or anything like that you can now find him. I'll let rob do the plug actually here, because you know the dates. 

01:10:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So john every week does a video on wednesdays where it's called school of thought. It's on the hit the books youtube channel, so head over there, subscribe it. You can check out john's videos, but typically it's a focus on a very overrated or underrated team in the market and specifically why he thinks that they're overrated or underrated. It's not a long watch 10 minutes, 10 to 15 minutes on a weekly basis but lots of valuable insight in there. I watch it every week and I started to learn new metrics that I didn't even know existed from college basketball. So there's that too. If you're just trying to pick up some new things, want to get with the times, I'm sure you'll you'll learn a ton we're really trying to focus on evening out each of the channels here. 

01:11:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know what I mean. So if you lost a bunch of money on joey knish tailing his football picks, then maybe this is a good time to make some back on college basketball season on the hit the books channel. He's not going to appreciate that too much I had to get that plug in. I don't even know, for definitely I don't know if you're trying to even out the channels or not. I just had to. I just had to throw the hit. 

01:11:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're trying to produce as much good content as we can and stuff that like we would all watch, right. I think that's the goal is I want to produce content that I would watch myself. Pretty easy ask. And uh, john, produce. John does a good job with that every single week. I want to leave you on this, john. Everyone can follow him on Twitter at JAF373. I highly suggest that you do. We have the same final question to everyone. If you could go back five years and talk to a previous version of yourself, what advice would you give to your former self? 

01:12:14 - John Fendler (Guest)
I think a little bit more humility would have been nice. In general, I fell hook line and sinker for the whole, and this was in vogue years ago I don't know five years ago, but maybe like seven, eight when I was starting to kind of wind my way through this the whole faith, the public mentality, the whole like fake contrarian bullshit that Sports Insights and Action Network were pushing, that Sports Insights and Action Network were pushing, and it made so much sense to me that, oh well, yeah, most people lose at this. So therefore, most people are wrong when they're mostly on the same side, and I've learned through experience that that's just not true. That's not why most people are losing. 

01:12:48
Almost anyone can, over enough sample, be a coin flip, 50-50 capper. It's not that. And the quote unquote sharp stuff or public stuff is all noise. It's what people make of it and none of it really matters. Just focus on getting the best number, focus on the approach that works for you and drown out all the other bullshit, because you guys have earned anyone. The space is full of nonsense and noise that goes nowhere. 

01:13:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well said. Yeah, I mean, it's always challenging and you shouldn't blame yourself too much for that from five years ago, because I blame myself for that from 10 years ago. But the reality is that's a lot of what is in the space, right? I mean, if you start googling stuff of how to win at sports betting, watching videos, I mean look at some of these YouTube channels that have hundreds of 1000 of subscribers. We broke one down here on one episode with an NBA live betting strategy which has like 70K views and it's like absolute garbage. So don't blame yourself too much for that. But I think the evolution of a better is very important and realizing, when something's not working, to be able to say this ain't working, I gotta do something differently. Appreciate your time, john. At John Fendler on Twitter. Again. Check out School of Thought on Hit the Books YouTube channel. Subscribe like Anything else out there, john. 

01:14:08 - John Fendler (Guest)
that you want to promote? No, nothing at all. I wish I had something to sell people, but I really don't. I'm just going to post the plays and you guys could do, you know, whatever you want with them, but there'm never going to sell picks or anything like that. So, hey, it should be a fun month ahead here with the season winding down. If you're just joining now, you're hopefully in at the right time. 

01:14:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Notifications on on BetStamp. That's how you're going to get the plays fastest at all times, so that's an easy one, I'm going to go turn them on right now. 

01:14:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
John JAF373 on BetStamp. Appreciate it, john. All the best. Good luck with all the upcoming trials as well. 

01:14:39 - John Fendler (Guest)
Appreciate it. 

01:14:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Thank you guys Well that was a good interview, yeah, very entertaining, and I like the guy, like he's pretty well-spoken, and I've tailed him on BetStamp for a long time, so good deal. 

01:14:59
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01:15:34
So I actually did use this for my face. Right now you can be the judge of what you want to do. I'm going to tell you why this is great. I know I will highly recommend it to you. Again, I don't promote products that I don't believe in. 

01:15:44
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01:16:23
I seriously will not go back to another beard trimmer and my poor barber, niall, who's used to doing my beard. I'm just going to have him give him an extra tip for the hair now because he's not going to do the shave as well. So go 20% off free shipping Our as well. So go 20 off free shipping. Our code is circles at manscapecom. Once again, code is circles at manscapecom. The manscaped beard hedger pro kit all right. 

01:16:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We promised that if you got to the episode, johnny was going to give out a pick, so I got my pick locked and loaded. I don't often give out picks. It's a big risk for me to give out a pick, but I'm going to go with my guy. Jake Paul Still can get him at minus 140 against Tommy Fury. It's hammer time. Jake Paul is probably going to win by decision, but give me Jake Paul versus Tommy Fury as a favorite. People don't think it's a real boxer, but he is thanks for getting to the end of the episode. 

01:17:21 - Zack Phillips (Other)
What would you play that? 

01:17:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
up to because this is coming out. Yeah, this is going to move now based off you, so you got to it's still hanging around there. 

01:17:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't anticipate it moves like. You're probably going to end up getting this a little bit now. I got to give a playable price too. See, that's tough, that's tough, that's tough, right now let's go playable price. 

01:17:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What's the probability of Jake Paul winning? 

01:17:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
this fight Probability. Well, you can't just say like a little bit above the odds, otherwise no one does that. So what I'm going to say is he's in 99.9% stone cold lock. Oh my God, playable up to I'll give a playable price. But see, here's the thing, if you're gonna have to lay like minus 180 or minus 190. I'd play it. I'd play a decision prop depending on the odds there, but let's go with minus 70. We take still minus 170. 

01:18:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You take. 

01:18:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Minus 170 on the money line is an implied probability of 63 percent minus 70, we still take, although you you can't grade me on this as uh as my well, we're gonna, we're gonna have to grade you on this. 

01:18:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're gonna get, we're gonna grade you. 

01:18:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, we're great, I will only preach is get best price in we're grading you at minus 140, you get the bet at minus 140. 

01:18:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so so if it loses which it won't, because I'm going to bet it, and whenever I bet these types of gimmick fights, I always win- Okay, if you have to lay minus 170, I'm preferring Jake Paul by decision. 

01:18:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Anything better than plus 230? 

01:18:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You heard it right here on Circles Off, episode number 90. 90 is the implied probability of Jake Paul in this fight. 90%, there you go. He said 99.9%. All right, like and subscribe. Be sure to do that. Rate and review five stars if you're listening via audio In the comments. If Jake Paul loses, make sure you roast Johnny. That's it. We'll see you next week, episode number 91. Peace out.