FIRST REACTION: Micah Parsons TRADED to the Green Bay Packers | Presented by Kalshi

00:18 - Flup (Host)
This is what's coming up on today's episode of. 

00:19 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Circle Back that you were willing to apologize for it. 

00:22 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
And especially when you're as wrong as much as Chris, you know it takes a lot of guts. 

00:28 - Flup (Host)
I'm sorry, this is the stupidest fucking take. This is ridiculous. 

00:33 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions. 

01:22
The Circle back here on the Circles Off channel. It's part of the Hammer Betting Network and presented by Cal City. This is the show where we cover the latest and greatest news from gambling Twitter and also a little bit into the sporting world as well, because right before we went live with our recording here, micah Parsons got traded fresh on the mind. We're going to discuss that in the lead off here with your friday crew as normal. I am your host, jacob germania. I'm the host of circle back. I'm a producer here at the hammer bed network. Underneath me in the bottom left corner, we have chris deer. Kiss at fluff, no light on twitter, our resident one-time contest winner and professional. Better in the bottom right. As usual. Again, it is joeyish host of Hit the Books here at the Hammerbed Network, our NCAA football content division. Excuse me, and in the top right we have our responsible gaming advocate, isaac. Ron, rob and Isaac, how are you doing, man? Thank you for joining us today. 

02:17 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Pleasure to be here, as always. 

02:19 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
We'll have a lot of stuff from Isaac and a lot of stuff in the gambling space a little bit later on in the show today, but I don't think there was really anything better to lead off with than this one Fresh on the minds for us. As I mentioned here, we have Michael Parsons traded away from the Dallas Cowboys to the Green Bay Packers and along with that he signs a $188 million contract with $120 million guaranteed. A $188 million contract with $120 million guaranteed. The trade is reported by Adam Schefter as the Cowboys receiving two first-round picks and Kenny Clark and the Packers receiving Micah Parsons In the fallout. 

02:55
Rob Pozzola, ceo of the Hammer and Dallas Cowboys fan, said End me A Giants account that I follow, said Jerry Jones just closed the gap between the Giants and the Cowboys, which I also tend to agree with. We have Jonah Tulls who says I want to remind everyone that those two first-rounders will almost certainly be in the 25-32 range. This front office is not serious. And the pro bettor, grp Wins, says I just bet under two and a half wins in division 1K plus 100 on Micah Parsons News. This is how pros operate, flup. Is that how pros operate in the space? 

03:32 - Flup (Host)
You know I looked for a different type of bet. I looked for, you know, just betting the Eagles week one playing the Cowboys. But you know, doing that is also another way to do it, capitalizing on injury news or new news in general. So, yes, that is how the pros operate JRP, showing that he is a pro better. 

03:51 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
But on this trade as a whole. You were the first one to put it in our circle back group chat. What were your thoughts when this trade broke? 

03:58 - Flup (Host)
I can't believe it. I didn't think he was going to get traded. I mean, typically when you draft someone as good as micah parsons, you don't trade them, you keep them in house um, so to see this getting traded I know they got a nice haul to first and like a starter, like a decent player, it it's. It's a lot of, but it's still like micah parsons is really good and like it brings me back to like the simpsons meme where it's like this box could be anything. It could even be like, mean, their first rounder picks of the first rounders they got. They could be anything, they could even be Micah Parsons. 

04:31
Like the reason you want first rounders is to get a player as good as Micah Parsons. So I just don't see the reason why you would trade him and the reason you can't pay him. I don't understand that either. Like the Packers are paying Jordan Love quite a bit of money and they managed to work it out. Yeah, the Cowboys are paying Dak a little bit more, but they could have worked it out. Micah Parsons is worth every penny. He's that good. You could make an argument that he's the most valuable non-quarterback in the league and potentially the most valuable non-quarterback asset in the league, so I can't believe he got traded. This is unbelievable Great news for the Packers. 

05:12 - Joey Knish (Host)
Terrible news for Cowboys fans Go ahead, Kanish. 

05:13
Yeah, I'll flop wrong again. This is classic Moneyball. This is NFL Moneyball. And Jerry, he's been ahead of the curve since he came in the league. Listen, you got the best years of Micah Parsons' career are already behind him. You got the best year. You got three All-Pros. You got that. You didn't have to pay for it. Anything going forward. Now you are paying for past production. Will he still be a very good player? Yes, will he likely be the same All-Pro, maybe best defensive player in the league candidate? I don't think so. And now you're paying him $6 million more than the second highest paid non-quarterback $47 million a year. Plus, you're giving up two firsts. 

05:57
This isn't how you win in the NFL. It's just not. It's not. What did Belichick do? You roll over? You get players on the rookie deals. Then you either sign them to a moderate deal Anybody that gets in this level of contract that's a non quarterback. In most cases you're going to end up regretting it. It's not that you win in the NFL and it's a poor move by a Packers organization that just doesn't have it. 

06:22 - Flup (Host)
Joey, that's ridiculous. Belichick had the greatest quarterback of all time on his roster. They can do things a little bit differently than this. Packers just have Jordan Love. All right, that's all I wanted to say there. Sorry, Isaac. 

06:34 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, now they have Jordan Love, who they're paying a bunch of money, and Micah Parsons, and now a bunch of undrafted free agents that they can't build around. This isn't how you build in the NFL. By trading future assets and paying top-of-the-market contracts, you can do one or the other. You can't trade multiple firsts and pay somebody a non-quarterback, this kind of money. It will come back to haunt them. It looks great for the news, it looks great to casuals like Fluff. It is not how you build winning rosters. 

07:04 - Flup (Host)
Just look at the previous examples. I mean silks traded for jamal adams, bear trades for coleo mac. Worked out great in both scenarios. This is just another example. This is going to work out. Work out great tomato tomato, not real. 

07:18 - Joey Knish (Host)
apples to oranges not, I was getting connected trades, but hey, if you want to use those examples and feel you know that you did something here, it's great. This is a mistake and it's why I stand by the Cowboys' decision to not pay him this amount of money and return the draft capital. Here's the thing the players you get in return don't have to be Michael Parsons, because they'll be getting significantly less money, significantly less capital, and you have multiple first rounders for years going forward now and not having to have 200 million guaranteed to a non quarterback. 

07:52 - Flup (Host)
But you could just push the cap like burden out, like that's what all the good teams are doing. They just create like void years, or just push the cap out and let that problem be later. You can. You can effectively overpay by pushing it out and cheating the cap. 

08:08
And, yes, four or five years from now when the tax man comes to collect the cap yeah that always comes to roost Right right, of course then the Packers will suck again, but they can work it in a way where they're not paying it's not that I mean they are paying a lot, but it's not that much on the cap for Micah Parsons and they have an elite player. This is the year especially with Ben Johnson gone from the Lions and you don't know how good JJ McCarthy is going to be this is the year for the Packers to really make a big play and kind of take over that division. They could really cement themselves as the best team in the division. 

08:42 - Joey Knish (Host)
I think the year for the Packers was the 12 years of Aaron Rodgers prime that they wasted and they're not making any like this. So now this is the year you're telling me, with Jordan Love and you know, a sketch crew. I don't believe it, I don't buy it, and it was an overpay, and one they'll come to regret. 

08:58 - Flup (Host)
So do you think this is a good decision for the Cowboys? 

09:03 - Joey Knish (Host)
I think the best decision would have probably been to come to a deal for them with Parsons. However, it appears his agent didn't want to come to a deal. I appreciate Jerry Jones sticking to his gloves there, but if you're the Packers and now you're giving him the deal that maybe Dallas wouldn't have, and a couple of first rounders on top of it and a starter, a high level starter at defensive tackle, you paid a significant price and I think you paid too much. 

09:32 - Flup (Host)
Agree to disagree. 

09:34 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Yeah, I'm really looking forward to the comment section for this one, what everyone thinks about the Micah Parsons trade and how people react to it. Do you think it is a good trade? I actually was expecting all of us to come in here and dunk on the Dallas Cowboys for making this trade. I was not expecting Kanish to come in defending them like this. So Kanish with some positive outlook. 

09:54 - Joey Knish (Host)
The whole like Donchich. We traded Donchich and Parsons pray for Dallas fans. Get the fuck Donchich. There is no comparison. That is a gross comparison. One's like a cornerstone NBA, like center of your time, like championship player. The other guy's, like you know, one of 52 on a defensive roster. 

10:13 - Flup (Host)
Yeah for what it's worth, like. I don't think this decision is like Dallas gave everything, like they punted. I just think it's a not good decision. 

10:21 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
The Dodgers trade is just like were they drunk Like I thought that was a troll. Yeah, nobody saw this one and thought it was fake. And yeah, like hours to be convinced that this actually did happen, so it's not quite as bad. I mean, in the end the dallas mavericks landed cooper flag in the draft, so it didn't all turn out too too bad for them. But I can see why. You know you're both of the franchise players essentially traded away. Obviously one player has a much more significant impact on basketball than it does for football so we'll just have to agree with me, good job. 

10:53 - Flup (Host)
If they don't, they're just casuals. So it's a win-win for me in either, in either direction uh, I feel like I'm a pretty casual football fan. 

11:00 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
This doesn't feel like a very good return for the dallas cowboys, but again, we're just going to have to wait and see on this one how it turns out Before we go to the next topic. If you're enjoying so far, please make sure you do hit the like button. Subscribe to the channel as well. Keep up to date with all the content we have here. We've introduced already some new content to the network and to the channel here, other than the circle back content, so make sure you're subscribed. We have a lot of great stuff in the pipeline. Comment your thoughts on mike and parson trade down below. And important announcement it is a holiday on monday, which means there's gonna be no circle back on tuesday next week. We can't record on tuesday either, because we're doing a lot of prep in the hammer studio for the start of the nfl season. Lots of great content wait what, what holiday? 

11:42
Labor Day weekend, that's not a Canadian holiday. 

11:45 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yes, it is. It's a holiday in both countries. Both have been canceled because of holidays in the calendar year of 2025. 

11:55 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
It is a holiday in Canada as well, and so Monday we're not working. Tuesday I'll have you know. Kanish, the whole Hammer team is in office getting set up for the football season to begin. 

12:05 - Joey Knish (Host)
Do you know what show's recording on Monday? 

12:09 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
is it? That's right, that's right you know there's, there's a lot less uh work. That respectfully, that goes into that show, that this show uh is there interesting? It is uh, the post production process, which also makes it difficult, and also like the setup for that one anyways. Uh, you won't like that. 

12:28 - Joey Knish (Host)
I'm away next week as well, so that's lazy jake i'm'm shocked you're still here for a couple weeks in a row. 

12:36 - Flup (Host)
Did you sign a deal with Rob where you get three months of vacation or four months of vacation? I don't understand. 

12:41 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
So with the upcoming hiatus it'll be 13 days of PTO so far this year. 

12:47 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
But they get to double dip Canadian and American holidays, right, right. 

12:52 - Joey Knish (Host)
So you've got like 87 paid holidays. We get Boxing Day and American holidays. 

12:53 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yes that's right. 

12:54 - Flup (Host)
So you've got like 87 paid holidays. We get Boxing Day and. 

12:56 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Labor. 

12:56 - Flup (Host)
Day. It's ridiculous. 

12:57 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
During the NFL we do typically work through holidays, but in the summer Pozzuolo is quite a bit more lenient to his employees. 

13:06 - Flup (Host)
Isaac, I have a quick question for you. Do the kiosks jam themselves or do you have to work on like Saturdays and Sundays and stuff like that? 

13:14 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
No comment, no comment. 

13:17 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
All right, we'll keep it moving. The next topic of conversation is on a new term or condition that was brought up by DraftKings and it was brought to a lot of people's attention by Hitman at Hitman428. Very good NFL player prop prop better and just better in general. Also does a lot of content with the hammer here on the forward progress channel, nfl content division. Use the link in description to check that channel out. But uh, basically the announcement is that draft kings now has the ability per their terms, to void a bet in which they deem it has been placed after news has broke on a situation. So let's say a running back was ruled out for injury and somebody were to have placed a wager before the line moved, draftkings would now have the power to void that bet. So I don't know. We look back at GRP wins here making that bet. Draftkings might be looking at that one trying to void it. But some of the replies to this one here, uh, basically Plus TV Analytics and Mr Peanut better spoke about it and a lot of what they spoke about is kind of the ambiguity of the rule, essentially saying like okay, so what do we determine as known information? 

14:29
Is it Adam Schefter? Is it a toledo beat reporter. What if the report is the player is 50 50 to play? Do these void? We don't really know. Uh, plus, tv analytics say you can't grant your yourself this power in such subjectivity and in an arbitrary way. If you, if you want to put rb1, must start, condition on rb2 props, go for it. Not like this. And spanky also talked about it saying this better is being uh, the better is being punished for his research and left holding the bag for the bookmakers incompetence. Will the players, his rights, ever get considered? So, uh, we talked a lot last week about angle shooting. This I would say it's a pretty good form of that. Isaac, we haven't heard from you yet. Uh, let's maybe quickly get your take on angle shooting and if you think it is acceptable, and then your take on this situation. Do you think this is a showcase of too much power from DraftKings? 

15:23 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
So I think when you angle shoot, you have to know the consequences, but also, like when you're going up against a sports book I think it's you know they're trying to take your money, you can try to take their money. If a book hangs a bad line, even if it's a mistake line, call me a bad person, I'm smashing the hell out of it with everything that I can count gets cut. You understand that it's a risk. When it comes to this, I mean, my biggest fear is that you basically can get free rolled in that if, let's say, you get the good information and the line moves in your favor or it becomes a really good bet, then they can cancel it, whereas let's say, I think the example I saw was oh, you know, you bet on any time touchdown score and the guy ends up not starting, but he still plays. 

16:11
The bet is valid, and then they're not going to void that bet when it doesn't go in your favor. How much they're actually going to sort of selectively enforce this is up for debate, but for me it just sucks, because anytime you have a bet voided and you have to deal with customer service is just awful, even if they end up ruling in your favor. Oftentimes your account gets cut it it takes so much time. It's just such a hassle. So yeah, I mean anything that increases the likelihood that bettors have to go to some sort of regulator or customer service even when their bets get voided. 

16:41 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Just is is horrible in my book can I say, somebody who tends to take these sorts of shots, I would I would believe you know bet on injury news and make bets in these sorts of situations. What was your reaction to seeing something like this come up? 

16:53 - Joey Knish (Host)
here's my initial guess of what they're doing here, and I'm not trying to. It could be worse, but maybe I'm putting a little, uh, like your water on the flames here. My guess with this is I don't want, I don't know how enforceable it is, and I'm thinking they just put this in here as maybe a bat in case they get something along the lines of like a draymond sgp type of thing, where it's a massive, massive lot, where, like we're talking millions of dollars. It was out there for I don't know five or ten minutes. People sgp'd the hell out of it and they're in like a massive lot and that's kind of what they're thinking in the back pocket. 

17:37
I don't think for your day-to-day, week-to-week NFL NBA games they're really gonna try this. I think it's just a way to slide in some terms as kind of a like disaster scenario that would be utilized in case they take something along that like a draymond sgp line of massive, massive hit, I think. Could I be wrong? Yes, but I don't think you'll see this utilized to void bets on a regular basis I think I think joey's right there. 

18:06 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
And also of note was that literally there was just some new news I think it was yesterday that they're getting sued by that guy from the golf sgp if you remember, they're not the sgp where basically a golf tournament was rained out. The guy parlayed all of the top 10 in that exact order to pay out like tens of millions of dollars. They avoided it. 

18:26 - Flup (Host)
So yeah, I think joey's likely correct here yeah I think joey's spot on here and this kind of bringing me back to my. I've been saying this a while but like these type of bets you shouldn't be making on the, on these accounts, like these you're going to cook your accounts in general with. These are the most obvious types of bets that get your accounts limited and whatnot. And if you're firing, like you, some like some backup rb or start some starting running back, guts running back gets injured or gets pulled, and you bet on the RB2 to score a touchdown or props over and you get a massive CLV, which these type of bets do you're just going to cook your accounts. There's just more reason not to be betting these types of bets in general. 

19:07
If you want to bet this, figure out the injury news before it becomes public. You can't just front run it et cetera, et cetera, because that's not how you sustainably crush these recreational books. And if DraftKings does start voiding this regularly like fuck DraftKings, that's ridiculous, that's insane. I think Isaac's point, the timing is pretty clear. What's going on here? They're scared that they lose millions of dollars in a situation like this again and they want to prevent that. 

19:38 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Chris, I'm not like an injury person. That's not the type of stuff that I bet. But if you get the news before the injury, isn't your CLV going to be the same? Why would it be worse for your account if you bet it before the injury news right after? 

19:52 - Flup (Host)
Fair point bet it before the injury news, right after. No, I mean fair. Fair point. I mean I guess from that point of view, yes, but like this is, this is going to be a little bit worse because it's going to get clumped with everyone running to it at the same time. But you're right, like clv is still not going to be um great, but it's like, in general, this is the learning it before it guarantees you the bet and it's going to be better and, yes, you still might get cooked, but it's less likely yeah, if you, if you place a bet at the same time as 10 000 other fan duel accounts, which are all limited and all following the beat reporter, you're going to get lumped in, and probably yeah I mean, the only issue I have with this is that I don't necessarily disagree with what knish was saying and like this is just kind of the breaking case of emergency. 

20:31 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
The language does suggest they they have the ability to use this whenever they want. So that would be my issue with it. It's like the okay, probably won't treat it this way. And you know, if, like the micah parsons news comes out and then fluff bets on uh, the eagles in week one, let's say, um, I don't think they'd use it in something in a case like that, but they can if they want to. So I guess it's just kind of a wait and see situation for this, because we don't know how exactly they're going to treat it. But that's kind of how I took it originally. Seems like quite a bit of work for the trading team, but there was some push Go ahead. 

21:09 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I'm curious for Kanish and flop, like have you guys ever had bets on regulated sports books that you think were manually voided, like where it wasn't just an automatic trigger and the rules, where you actually think someone went in and made the decision to avoid that bet? Because I'm looking back, I feel like every time that I've had a bet voided and I've fought voids before it's been like because the rules were automatically applied. 

21:31 - Flup (Host)
I don't know if it was an actual trader that did it uh, the only time for me was just an offshore like yeah, I yeah, it was clearly like off and like bookmaker was like fuck you, and they voided it and yeah same thing here. 

21:44 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, I had a lot of those back in the day of similar scenarios where it was just cherry picking, uh, something that was significantly wrong. It was like a hobby, so I mean so. But now, different story at the legal books. 

21:58 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Uh, there was a little bit of pushback. Uh, on the reaction. The reaction was mostly negative to this new draft kings rule but uh, there was a bit of pushback to that from some of gambling twitter, first of all from louis at l master 99 says sure, this creates a slippery slope, but jamming bets after the news but before the odds change is loser behavior anyway. Go place a real wager. And man of the VIG at VIG police said hot take, but this is only bad for low IQ individuals. So I kind of want to get your reaction to that. I mean, my reaction to it is like think it makes you a loser if you make a bet that's going to get insanely good CLV, you understand the risks it does to your account but at the end of the day, like you know, money is green. It's like the conversation of people who look down on top down bettors. It's like those people are making money as well. So I'm not really sure how that's loser behavior or not. A real wager, isaac, what's your thought on that? That's? 

22:53 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
loser behavior or not? A real wager, isaac? What's your thought on that? Yeah, it's just kind of funny. Like you know, 99% of people lose at sports betting. And then you have like the 1% of the 1% who are saying like, oh, these other ways of winning are not as good. Like there are ways in which you can bet that are going to get your accounts to last longer. That will probably help you win more in the long run. But in my book, if you have figured out any way to make money gambling sports betting, however, like you're already a winner in my book. Like, look, you're probably not gonna. If you get tons of clv, you're not going to keep your accounts open that long. You're not gonna make a ton of money. But if you can come out one cent profitable, even if it's just like hedging promos from sports books, like you're a winner in my book You're ahead of 99% of people. 

23:40 - Joey Knish (Host)
There's also books that won't cut you and books that won't limit you and like if you get in at those books, you know, if you're quick to the trigger, then I mean it's kind of a win-win scenario. Also, a little bit unrelated man of the vig on a legendary, horrible Twitter run, like some of his takes maybe not directly related to this over the last week. What a fucking moron. I mean, where does he get this stuff? 

24:06 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Where does he even come up with this. It's like he almost chooses to be contrarian. 

24:11 - Joey Knish (Host)
Right, right, like yes, yes, let me give you this insanely annoying take. Okay, I got to agree with Sir Benedict here. 

24:19 - Flup (Host)
I'm sorry, I have to agree with him here. I agree with your larger point, but I got to agree with him here. Yes, he's on a generationally bad run, but, like, if this hurts you, you're probably not that great of a better. Like, if this hurts you in a significant way, you're probably not that great of a better, and so I'm not really concerned. 

24:40 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I think the precedent here is more alarming, rather than, like this, I don't think this is hurting, really making a significant impact on somebody's bottom line Because, like I mean, if it was, you probably were already limited upon a bunch of accounts and maybe just have great access to accounts, but this just kind of feels like an ugly precedent to me. I think that's the bigger issue. Anyways, I feel like last week when you said when you post something on CalSher or something and it gets filled immediately, you know you're in danger. I feel like when you agree with ManAtTheVig, that's the same feeling where it's like, oh man, I might be on the wrong side of this one. The man of the Vig agrees with me. But speaking of Kalshi, there was a market that we showcased. I believe we showcased this on the Tuesday show. It was who will headline the Pro Football Championship halftime show? Did we talk about that last week? 

25:34 - Flup (Host)
Or was about that last week, or was that tuesday? 

25:35 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
those two or it was like two. We did show. We did talk about? Yes, we did. Did we do this in the live show? Maybe we did. Anyways, we talked about this somewhere. Uh, who will headline pro football championship halftime show? Uh, we have taylor. Swift trading at 57 on cal she post, malone at 21, metallica at nine percent and fluff. You brought this tweet up where you said I respect both people. By by the way, I love gambling and it's one screenshot that says somebody messaging you is there a lot of money on couch for Super Bowl halftime show? I think Taylor is like mega locked. And then there was another person who said was going to tweet about it, but def going to bet it Taylor Swift not to host Super Bowl halftime show. And you said you respect both these people. What's the thought process from both of them? 

26:18 - Flup (Host)
If you could spill a little bit on this situation, I don't want to give too much away because I want to respect. I don't really like leaking, Of course, You're fine with this, of course, but I just thought it was funny. I got these texts within 15 minutes of each other. They both knew each other. I know they're both big winners and I just like added them to a group chat. I asked them both whether I'd go with it and they bet against them or they did some deals together. 

26:45
I was like I don't know, like, as a top-down guy, I'm scared of adverse selection, so this is just is just terrifying to me. I don't want to go against either of them, so I think it was pretty funny. I lean towards her not going being the right side here, because it seems like the argument for the pro to do it was all based on these Easter eggs, because Taylor's supposed to make Easter egg but the no. It's just like it's just fading hype and like are they really going to upstage? Like Travis Kelsey in his last year? Like what if he goes to the Super Bowl? I don't know if he's going to play or not. 

27:23
Like it doesn't seem that great here. And you get, you know, plus odds, 57% is you know, you get almost plus 150, plus 145, plus 135, whatever the math works out. I don't know how these stupid Canadians do their decimal laws or whatever. So I think it's very funny that both people are winning and both have opposite sides. Typically, that's why you have steam people agreeing with each other. But this is gambling. You have smart people on opposite sides and we'll see who comes out on top of this one. 

27:53 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Anything from you, Isaac, on this one. 

27:56 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, I mean. So you're saying you know you're scared when you agree with man in the vague. I'm scared to agree with Chris on a calci market here. I almost made the mistake of just pulling it up because, yeah, 70% seems way too high for me. So I do lean towards definitely fading the hype there. But no, I agree with him. 

28:14
These are the most fun, most interesting spots where no one really has any idea and you get smart people on both sides. You know, a few weeks ago there was a similar spot where this billionaire, bill Ackman, played in a professional tennis match and, of course, like no one has any idea what the line is and I was really big on one side and I knew other people on the other side and neither of us had any idea. Like we're literally pulling up YouTube videos of him playing tennis from 10 years ago to try to see how he's good, how good he is, and in the end, like it turned out, even though it was a pro match, the other guys just didn't even try against him. But yeah, these are. These are the best spots in gambling when no one has any idea. These are the best spots in gambling when no one has any idea. You know you're Mayweather McGregor. Hopefully you get a lot of rec action in here as well. So just tons of fun. 

28:56 - Joey Knish (Host)
You guys are burying the lead. There's a reason why Isaac's here and not Storm and not it's because Mr Peanutbutter wouldn't show and face the heat for losing his first ever circleback Kelshi bat, and in Fosen style he lost so much on this it actually negatives him for the other three bats in the show. So old PB, now you know he's like oh yeah, look at that, look at that, and would you believe it? That now is like. This is like. You know he was clicking off like foes. Oh, I hit all the big. You know, I hit this, I hit this on three and oh, now, with this l it's over for pb. He's down on the season, down on the circle, back thing so, and he wouldn't come to face the music. So so very tough scene, but not surprised. 

29:54 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I will say I sent my mom sent the news to our family group chat. She was like what do you guys think? And I sent a screenshot of Mr Peanutbutter's wager on it and she was like your friends are fucking idiots. 

30:09 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Well, I think in general, when anybody not privy to professional bettors sees somebody betting on will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey get engaged this year, the natural reaction is why would you bet on something like that? 

30:22
So I could see why that's the case. But just to kind of preview this topic, just to go through this topic a little bit more, Mr Peanutbetter posted while he was at Bet Bash if Taylor Swift announces her engagement to Travis Kelsey on the podcast, through this topic a little bit more, mr peanut better posted while he was at bet bash if taylor swift announces her engagement to travis kelsey on the podcast, which was the new heights podcast, I will commit blank live at bet bash, which didn't happen but did lose in the end. Says did not happen at bet bash. So I do get to live a life that will be dedicated to seeing travis kelsey's downfall. Um, and just another little uh piece to kind of add to this story here. This one was brought up by Domer at Doma with four H's and showcases that there was a user on Calshi called Romantic Paul. 

31:06 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
On Polymarket, not on. 

31:07 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Calshi. Oh sorry, different market. Apologies, but there was a user called sorry, it says Poly. There was a user called Romantic Paul on Polymarket who started aggressively buying Taylor Swift to be engaged yesterday afternoon, so the day before the announcement came out at 3 pm, brought the price from 25% chance all the way up to 45% chance. So people were kind of digging into this one and we have Diggs at Diggs Yet Again. Prominent on gambling, twitter and a very big Taylor Swift fan showcased a screenshot of Paul Sedati, who is a guitarist and vocalist and has played with Taylor Swift since 2007,. Wondering if he's connecting the dots there between romantic Paul and this Paul, the guitarist for Taylor Swift. Do we think there's a connection there, isaac? 

31:53 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I thought the best part of this was people were like replying to him saying how did you do all this research? He's like you guys don't know, paul. I knew this off the top of my head. Basically don't know. 

32:03 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
A true Swifty digs. Yet again Flop. Would you classify this as the angle of shooting that you would not condone in this space from romantic paul? 

32:17 - Flup (Host)
this is okay. 

32:17 - Joey Knish (Host)
If people like blew up at me, it's like far worse, far, far worse than what I did like I love lifelong friends, like oh, I'm getting a gazes and you run right to polly and like, slam it in and especially if, like, like, the username fits so well romantic polly. 

32:36 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
So what's it like? 

32:38 - Flup (Host)
yeah, his first song. You know, his first song was a love song. So it, you know, it does make sense, it does kind of line up. 

32:45 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I feel like if you're gonna do this, you should probably not use your own name just to like not bring any attention to you, because, especially in the taylor swift universe I'm sure digs is in like is nowhere near the the upper echelon of like crazy taylor swift fans and swifties. Taylor swift fans will find out anything as kind of proven here I. I do wonder what would you, what would you guys make the line that this is actually the same guy this is? Would you, would you say comfortably above 50, 50 under 50? What do you guys think? 

33:14 - Flup (Host)
I'd go like 30 yeah, under like 20 for me, just because if he's, like been with swift for all these years, he's got to be like mega rich. That's already. And like is he really gonna just like torch his reputation with taylor to pick up like 30, 40, 50 000 dollars? Like I don't know how much he made, but like, unless it was like millions of dollars, which I don't think the market was deep enough to make that much money I don't think it's worth it. What's probably more likely is maybe, like he made an off-cam comment to someone and, like one of his relatives heard, or one of his relatives heard, or a friend of a friend eventually heard and was like oh, let me pound on this. 

33:59 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Makes sense. By the way, guys, if you ever want to get involved in any of these markets on CalSheet like this new one up Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey be married this year, which is currently at an 8% chance of happening? If you ever want to get involved in any of these markets, head over to CalSheet. You can use the link in the description at any point while you're listening or watching, or you can scan the QR code on screen. Right now, a lot of these unique markets with oftentimes a lot of liquidity involved. Get involved with our sponsor, calsheet, today. Do yourself a favor by doing that and you can support the show in the process. 

34:29 - Joey Knish (Host)
I will say Go ahead Totally objective. The show in the process, I will say but go ahead totally objective. Now I'm not like a swifty or any of your big fan. Breathtaking engagement photos, I mean really phenomenal. That one where they're in the garden, he's on it. I mean like that was not that one specifically, but the one like the pan shot where the full garden. 

34:46 - Flup (Host)
I mean I tell you what that's, that's nice work they probably got are you gonna give the future mrs knish a 550 000 engagement ring like uh, travis kelsey did it's? 

34:58 - Joey Knish (Host)
in the. You know it's in the, it's in the realm. I mean, he's making, uh, you know, making some of us hard-working men out here look a little rough. Uh with that, you know that's that. But uh, hey, how do you say no with that, with that photo, that ring. 

35:12 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
How do you say no? 

35:13 - Joey Knish (Host)
How do you say no? 

35:15 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
On the next topic, we do go to our fourth for today, which is Isaac at RoundRobin42. You shared the video which was coming for a while and you let us know beforehand. 

35:26 - Joey Knish (Host)
As if mainstream media could be any more dead. 

35:31 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
There was a CNN, I guess, documentary where they went through the story of a person who suffered with problem gaming and it's called Sports Betting America's Big Gamble, and you were involved in this project, as were a few other people. There's some photos here with yourself involved. There's also Jeff Benson and some footage taken at Circa Sports and you said had a great time filming this, very happy with how it turned out. Credit to all the crew and producers. And then you talked about it'll be available on HBO in a couple of weeks for everyone who does want to watch. But you are the resident responsible gambling advocate that will come up a couple of times in the show a little bit later on. But talk about how this documentary came to be, talk about how you got involved, talk about the message that it's trying to send. 

36:17 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, so they reached out to me a while ago. This was supposed to come out like a couple months ago. We filmed, they followed me around for the Australian open, so in January of this year, and then we flew and did some stuff in in Circa as well. They reached out to me I'm friends with Danny Funt who was also profiled in it, and he recommended me and they wanted someone who was a winning, better, but then also someone who could talk a little bit about the industry. And they also wanted someone kind of younger, because obviously this is something that's mostly about young men. And I met with them and they liked me and so we just sort of went on from there. There's a lot of filming. 

36:54
I will say I thought it turned out pretty well. But to clarify, I had no editorial discretion over the overarching documentary and even my own scenes. I didn't see them at all until they went live. We filmed for like five or six hours of me personally those scenes and it got condensed to like five or six hours of me personally those scenes and it got condensed to like five or six minutes. So you know what you see there. They you know I'm not upset with how they framed me at all, but like, if you're, if you're mad at anything, if you liked it, thanks and I'll take the compliment. If you didn't like it, it's not my fault, it's the producer's fault. But no, overall it was. It was really great. 

37:30
My scenes, we sort of went once again. They followed around me betting, showing some prep, prepping some SGPs, placing some live bets and then talking a bit about the industry as well. I will say the one sort of thing that I didn't love about it, which is you probably could have expected, they focused on a little bit on me and then a lot on sort of the addicts and people who've been really harmed from gambling. Obviously, you're missing the 98% of people who are engaging with these products and kind of a normal, safe ways, but you know that's not really an exciting part of the story. So yeah, yeah, but I had a great time doing it, excited people really think it's 98% or no, I think it's. 

38:12
I think it's a. It's a complicated question, right, I would say there's a few percentage of people who have really big problems and then a lot more than that have sort of somewhat of a problem. So it's probably not 98%, but there's a big gray area. Like I don't think it's helpful to be like. You know, 2% of people are addicts and 98% of people are totally fine, right, like I think we all know you can gamble a lot and not have it ruin your life and still have it be kind of dangerous or not healthy. 

38:39
You know, the way you define gambling addiction is like the set of criteria and if you, you know, fulfill nine or five out of nine, you have a gambling addiction. If you fill one or two, you have a problem, minor problem, like I know we all know people who fulfill a lot more than one and we probably all fulfill more than one ourselves. So, yeah, I just tried to be pretty honest in my depictions of both what I do as a gambler and also you know how this can be a dangerous activity for some people, not something that should be illegal, but you know you should recognize the harms. I also will say I connected them with a lot of other people. So Rob spoke with the producers, a couple others just tried to give them kind of an unbiased look at the industry, because obviously I don't know everything. 

39:24 - Flup (Host)
I think the real MVP was Kenzie, with the Asian quad really dialed up to the max there. That was the best part of the documentary. 

39:31 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
That was my favorite part too yeah, I enjoyed it. 

39:35 - Joey Knish (Host)
Look forward to the uh, the full hbo, uh hbo, inside stuff coming out when, uh, when it does me as well. 

39:42 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
So, uh, is that the only way to access it? Isaac's in a couple weeks. 

39:46 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
You have to wait, yeah, a couple it might go back on cnn in a few days, um, but yeah, it'll be out on HBO in a couple weeks. It's sort of like a licensing deal, like when you see a movie it doesn't go directly to Blu-ray or whatever, but yeah, hope people enjoy it. Definitely some funny scenes in there. Yeah, I will say I mispronounced this tennis player's name on there, which is pretty embarrassing, and so I'm excited for the Brazilians and my DMs yelling at me. But besides that I was happy with how it turned out. Lots of Capri Sun. The Risk Takers pod came after me for drinking Capri Suns. They said it was a bad look for professional gamblers. Not serious enough. 

40:25 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Is that this photo here? 

40:27 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, Well, in all of my scenes I tried to have Capri Sun I'm a big Capri Sun guy. I was scenes I tried to have caprice I'm a big capri sun guy. I was. I was angling for the sponsorship there. 

40:40 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Anybody knows, anybody at capri sun hit me up. I want the sponsorship, but uh, no, hopefully I I repped pretty well, all right, we'll move into your guys's comments from the previous week's episode and a very rare poll from twitter, not just youtube comments, because I thought this was excellent from bernabee joe who said if you're not making monthly public apologies, you are not acting aggressively enough. And that is in response to fluff apologizing yet again last week. Uh, this time for angle shooting is. Is that how the pros operate, fluff? 

41:07 - Flup (Host)
that was a great tweet. I I died laughing. That was that's one of my all-time favorites right there. But what other times have I made them like? I don't publicly apologize like every other fucking week that? 

41:18 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
they're making. 

41:19 - Flup (Host)
I recall the, the poker stuff and this well first of all, people should be apologizing for me, not the other way around on that one, because I didn't fucking do anything in in that one and was just slandered by some members of community well not to reopen this, this can of worms, but you did apologize for the texts that were in the background that wasn't. 

41:39 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
That was not that bad compared to like it wasn't, but you did apologize for it, which, whatever you say about chris at least he admits when he's wrong. 

41:47 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I that's, that's a pretty pretty uh not many people can get great exactly second comment. 

41:52 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
There we go 85, who said Fluff's ability to admit what he's wrong is underrated. Great quality to have. So people did respect and it wasn't the only comment that brought it up that they respect that you were willing to apologize for it. 

42:07 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
And especially when you're as wrong as much as Chris, you know it takes a lot of guts as much as Chris. 

42:11 - Joey Knish (Host)
It takes a lot of guts. I agree the internet is the one thing that has changed people's ability to have any self-awareness and admit when they're wrong. It is a great I would agree with that great quality to be when someone actually has an authentic change of opinion and it's not based on they're not going to like what do you see on the internet? 99 of the time, I'm going to double down, I'm going to triple down, I'm going to dig my heels in and then I'm going to either, you know, block you or put my head in the sand. 

42:41 - Flup (Host)
so yeah, I agree with that well, I like as it top down better. I go with the market. 

42:45 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I change my views based on the market, so that's, that's how it is doubling, tripling, quadrupling down can lead to you know your service going down 80 units before you know it, so you got to be careful and be prepared to apologize, maybe react to new information. The last comment comes from at TD Coral 085 says legal books exchanges, pphs, offshores. No one is safe from a angle shooting from me. These entities target and take advantage of people with gambling issues, with no consequences, so I'll never be sorry for taking a shot at them. We'll go to our responsible gambling advocate once again. Isaac on this one. Is this maybe how you feel about angle shooting as well? Because you does? 

43:27 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I'm sure the documentary touches on some of these practices as well yeah, look, I agree, I think when it comes to a casino, yeah, like if if you go to the, you know you're at a, you're at a table and they pay you out accidentally, like you bet your ass I'm not going to correct, well, maybe I'll correct it. I don't want the dealer to get in trouble. But, like you know, if you get paid, if I get paid wrong at a sports book, they grade a bet incorrectly. Am I going to DM customer service saying, sorry, you misgraded my bet? Hell, no, I think. Chris and I both come from the poker world and so it's more peer-to-peer and there I'm very anti-angle shooting. When you're taking money from someone across the table from you, it's a dick move, it ruins the vibes, all these things. But when it's player versus the house, I very, very rarely have an issue with angle shooting. 

44:15 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, I used to have maybe the most hard line, like anti-book stance in regards to this of a life, especially, you know, back in the more of the offshore days. I mean, I haven't gone full Kirk Evans where now I'm, you know, calling him up and offering him a fruit basket to, you know, void my void, this air. But at the same time I've softened the stance just a bit. With that being said, I agree In most cases, you know, know, I'll put it this way if I'm passing on an angle shot, it's usually because of, like, the ramifications of, I could lose the account, it could get limited, like you think? 

44:53 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
it's you think it's minus ev? 

44:55 - Joey Knish (Host)
yeah, yeah, yes, exactly great good analysis there. It's a minus ev play as opposed to the moral authority of me just deciding not to. 

45:05 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, I think that's the thing right. When you see people arguing about getting their bets voided or these angles on Twitter, they're usually in the wrong. I have no problem with shooting your shot, but also, if the voids a bet that was clearly mispriced, it's like fair enough. 

45:22 - Flup (Host)
Yeah. 

45:24 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Both things can be true. 

45:25 - Flup (Host)
I disagree with that. I think bitching on Twitter is probably the way to go to try to get the money back. But that's just. That's just me. 

45:32 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Maybe not for everybody, but that's Flop's way, and we look forward to whatever next month's apology will be. We don't know what it is yet, but there'll be something there. But it's because you're taking those risks trying to make a little bit of extra money, exactly. Before we move into our next topic, let's hear a word about the newsletter we have here at the Hammer. What's up, guys Jacob here, if you like the content we're putting out and want to get even sharper as a better, you need to subscribe to Kirk's Hammer, our free newsletter. Kirk Evans is one of the smartest people I've worked with. He breaks down the market strategy, modeling concepts and betting theory in a way that's actually digestible. And, with football season around the corner, the newsletter is only getting better More insights, more value, fewer Zilbert-style show-me-the-records debates. Hit the link in the description and get signed up. It's free and it's worth your time. 

46:20
Our final full topic for today's show comes from Jeff Zuccottini. Hopefully I said that correctly. It says updated list of things online sportsbooks are doing in response to the Illinois per bet tax. So we covered it on the channel already, on the show already, but Illinois is introducing a per bet tax, a small tax to pay on each wager. Now some sportsbooks are going to charge a fee to the better, but to circumvent this, there are some sportsbooks who are actually going with bet minimums. Circa has already discussed going with a $10 bet minimum. Others have done a $1 bet minimum, a $2 bet minimum. Some sportsbooks are doing $0.25 fees, $0.50 fees and so on. So a lot of sportsbooks handling it in different ways. 

47:03
Isaac, once again you have a tweet featured here because you said less than $10 minimum bets are not sustainable. Would guess within a couple of months all those operators will follow DraftKings FanDuel and directly pass the fee on to its users. If not, there'll be some very funny trolls ways to screw over the house $1K, $1 bet versus 1K bet, for example. A decent bot and a commitment to the bit could literally transfer many millions from ESPN to the Illinois government at minimal cost. So why don't you elaborate on your stance on this one? Then we'll hear from Fluff and Kanish. 

47:33 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, I mean, first of all, this is just one of the worst policies I've ever seen. It's just so bad. You talk about this in line with the big beautiful bill 90% deduction. It's just horrible policy. Obviously it's bad for us as sports bettors, but it's just really dumb. If you want to jack up the operator rate, like they have in New York, that's fine. You can make arguments on both sides. This is just really stupid. 

47:59
It gets passed fully onto the consumer and then, from a responsible gambling angle I mean literally the response of a lot of these places is to jack up the minimum bets. 

48:08
You think about what's probably the worst possible thing you could do from a responsible gambling angle is to not allow people to bet $0.50 or $1 and make them bet a minimum of $5, $10., 50 cents or a dollar and make them bet a minimum of five bucks, 10 bucks. It's just really bad policy. It's really upsetting to see this happen, but then, yeah, if the companies are not going to pass it on, if you bet a straight bet for $10, you're usually only going to lose about 5%. You're losing 50 cents, right. So if you place a $1 bet, you're losing 5 cents, but if the operator has to pay a 25 cent fee on that. You could just imagine someone botting in and placing millions of $1 bets, even if they're slightly minus EV, they're raising literally many millions of dollars for the government. It's just a bad policy. I can't imagine that's really going to happen because no one has an incentive in the government to do that. But yeah, just stupid stuff. 

49:06 - Joey Knish (Host)
You kind of agree with him there. Knish, what do you think on this? I mean, honestly, I like I'll go even a step further. I think this is probably the worst policy I've seen enacted in any state, like since gambling has been legalized. This seems so stupid that it may. I can't get any logical sense out of it. And the fact that the majority of your players now, for especially a lot of these rec books, are what is it? It's become kind of like the penny slot SGP. That's what people want to play. That's what your typical rec better is doing. He's betting the $1, $. You know two dollar, you know 12 legs to win. And it's like now you're de-incentivizing the thing that has kind of revolutionized sports betting and it's passing it on to the people that you know are passing it on the customer, passing on the people that pay the tax. I can't believe this is actually getting through um and just do. Another element of how stupid some people that are in legislation don't understand sports betting yeah, I mean isaac came to that. 

50:05 - Flup (Host)
Why not just increase the ggr tax? Just go from like oh they're 30 to 45. That would be better. And his point of responsible gambling is so true here. Because if, if I bet a bunch of like $2 or $3 wagers and I make like $500, $2 or $3 wagers throughout the year of 10,000 to one long shots and that's my promotion, I'm actually betting quite responsibly. I'm losing $1,000, $1,500 a year. It's pretty responsible. But now they can't have that per customer anymore. It's like ridiculous. So it's like they're barely even increasing. It's like ridiculous. So it's like it's it's they're barely even increasing their increasing revenue, but they're seriously damaging their constituents in the state by doing so. 

50:46 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
So it's also and also, you know you talk about the offshore industry, right, and you don't. The whole point of legalization is to bring people from the offshore onto the legal, regulated market. I mean, this is just pushing people back there, both in terms of if they want to bet small or if they just don't want to pay these fees. It's funny I had a meeting with an economist who's doing a study on gambling and gambling taxation last week and he was like could you explain this Illinois tax to me? I don't get it. He's like I don't understand why it's so bad, and he didn't realize it was a per bet tax. He was like, oh, I had read that, but that's just the stupidest thing I ever heard. I couldn't imagine that was actually real. It's just so silly, it's distortionary, it doesn't make any sense. As Chris agreed with, just jack up the tax rate, even do it on handle, but having a flat rate on every individual bet, especially when most people once again they're betting their $1, $2 SGPs Just yeah. 

51:37 - Flup (Host)
Nothing else we can say besides horrible, we know what happened. Right, like this has to have happened. They're like saying, oh, there was like X million number of bets at Illinois. Right, right, let's just make it $0.25. First of all, probably not realizing that, like customer behavior is going to change, obviously. And two, like the books are going to find ways to fight this. And it's just ridiculous all around. 

52:00 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
It's just once again a showcase of the disconnect between regulators and the sports books and the customers, which is why there's people advocating against this, which is why there are groups of people who are just in general, trying to get bookmakers and regulators to have a better relationship and work together. But I feel like you know, every month we have another new example proving that things aren't really going in the right direction with regulation. I wonder if we do eventually kind of go all the way back to like offshore is kind of dominating space. Do you ever think that's going to happen? 

52:31 - Joey Knish (Host)
um, probably not. Uh, just due to, I think, some of the, the barrier to entry factors that would come in with, with, like the way the legals are cemented now and some of the. I mean you've already seen some of the government try and take shots at some of the bigger offshores that have been out there. So I don't think it'll ever go that way. But you've got just being, you know, but you've got just ding, you know, sponsorship places like Kelshi and others that are kind of making their way through that avenue in the prediction market thing that that could end up maybe taking a lot of handle from your, you know, your traditional DraftKings, vandal, one of those That'll be. That's just kind of a game changer in terms of where we're like, where it might be going. A lot of the, especially the big liquidity in some of the markets, may be going, so it'll be interesting to see. 

53:27 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, I think it's not only, as Joey said, about the friction, right, like, if you have to deposit somewhere using crypto, you're just not going to get a lot of people who are using DraftKings and using Venmo. I think the other thing is just the product itself. It's just far superior on a lot of people who are using DraftKings and using Venmo. I think the other thing is just the product itself. It's just far superior on a lot of the legal, regulated apps in the offshore industry. Right, like a lot of offshore, they don't have SGPs, the UI interfaces aren't as good, the apps aren't as smooth, all of this stuff. And yeah, I mean talk about the sponsor of this podcast sort of getting into more of these other markets that people are more interested in. 

54:00 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
that's, yeah, definitely where I think you're gonna see potentially more volume, not the offshore industry a decent segue into the chopping block for us today, because one of the lead-off, the lead-off topic for the chopping block chopping block is just the stuff we didn't want to cover in full scale segments but still wanted to touch on on the. It is the life of a capper series that we introduced on this channel. That is the most recent episode on circles off, before this one. This one does come out. One of the questions that I did ask to all of the people who were interviewed there, which include Isaac and flub, were about where sports betting is heading, and a lot of people did mention prediction markets and places like Calci being maybe the norm in 10 years time. 

54:39
But the first question that was featured on the show was what is the sketchiest situation that you've ever been in as a better, and a couple things I want to highlight here. First of all, uh, isaac, you, you are, like I said, the responsible gambling advocate and your story right after. By the way, this is how it happened I got robbed to give me the tagline for everyone involved, because some people are professional bettors, some people are not. I just wanted to make sure I had that information correct, but under yours it was responsible gambling advocate On a video where he talked about taking a train out of state at 2 am to place bets, where you had to climb a tree to be able to access somebody else's Wi-Fi to put in a bunch of losing bets. Access somebody else's Wi-Fi to put in a bunch of losing bets. So I don't know if you realize this is my YouTube account that commented Isaac the responsible gaming advocate climbs a tree at 2 am to get losing bets in. You said lots of bangers here. 

55:28
And Kirk Evans I think was a really funny one because the older guys yes, indeed, there are stories where you know I was worried I was going to get kneecapped. There was a mob enforcer at this lunch saying we're not going to get paid. Captain Jack said he got chased by security. And then you have other people, younger bettors, like Mr Peanutbetter. It's just sketchy going into a casino with a lot of money in a backpack and you're worried you're going to get mugged. That's just kind of duality. So Kirk Evans says maybe regulation isn't so bad after all. Kanish, you weren't featured in this, unfortunately, but just curious. Do you have a sketchy situation you can share with us on the spot. 

56:07 - Joey Knish (Host)
Listen, if you've ever been to a Detroit casino late in the hours on a weekday, my entire life is a sketchy situation. So yeah, if you ever come to town I'll treat you to uh, let me tell you, the late night weekday detroit casino crowd is uh is something to behold, my friend. So, um, yeah, hopefully one day. Uh, you know, we all get to experience it together yeah, I think kirk, kirk sort of like. 

56:33 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Obviously, you know, not as crazy as going to lunch with the mob enforcer, but I will say the first time you like, walk around with a lot of cash, like late at night. It's one of the scariest feelings, it's very frightening. So I don't want to downplay the people who felt pretty sketchy doing that. It feels pretty sketchy to carry around a lot of cash really in any context, especially for gambling. 

56:55 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Flip, do you think you got overshadowed with your story by some of the other ones in here? 

56:59 - Flup (Host)
Oh, for sure, I mean, I don't have that interesting compared to, like basically everyone else. 

57:05 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Anyways, if you want to go check out the full video, it is on the channel and I would recommend entertaining and lots more content in that series. On the way, isaac is the star of today's show because he has another tweet featured here. It says we talked about this before on the Tuesday show, but I kind of wanted to get your guys' opinion and Isaac, because you tweeted it. You said genuinely think, if you're betting for fun, you should reserve about 10% of what you would bet on a player slash team for if they go down, so you can double down at a better price without chasing beyond your means and then Flop. I didn't include your reply, but your reply was is this responsible gaming advice? Your reply was is this responsible gaming advice. 

57:39 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
So I would like to clarify. I did say right after that that this might be a horrible take. I'm honestly still on the fence. My logic here is that a lot of people, if they are going to bet on a game and then watch it, if their team goes down they are going to double down Because you know you bet a team at minus 110, they go down a couple touchdowns, it's halftime. You can get them at minus 110. They go down a couple of touchdowns, it's halftime. You can get them at plus 500. You're like, oh, you know, I might as well add to my position, sprinkle in. 

58:09
And all I was saying was that if you are the kind of person who's going to do that, which I think a lot of recreational customers are, then bet a little bit less initially so you save a little bit to go. You know, place that bet. Some people were telling there in the comments like, oh, it's not a comparable bet because it's, you know, the game state has changed, it's minus EV. This is not an EV question, right? This is a question of if your team is down, are you going to chase If you know you are bet a little bit less at the beginning so you can chase and not bet too much. But I know Chris disagrees with me. I don't know I do this so, uh, yeah, it works for me I'm sorry, this is the stupidest fucking thing. 

58:42 - Flup (Host)
This is ridiculous. Um okay, your point about it being a better price. 

58:48 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
It's not a better price because the situation has changed like oh it's a better it's, of course it's a better price no, it's not a better price because, like it's not a better price from an ev perspective, but it is the. You're betting on the same outcome and you're getting higher odds. It is higher odds, better price. When I say better price, I'm talking about it in the rec sense of the odds are higher, more bang for your buck, not the EV sense. 

59:12 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, but then you're just like being totally like anti-responsible gambler. 

59:17 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
The reality is Chris doesn't live in the real world. Right, like anti-responsible gambling. The reality is chris doesn't live in the real world, right, chris? Advice chris gives is like, oh, take, take more risks. Like take more shots with your bankroll. He's appeals to, like, the one percent of people who are think they're going to be pros. It's ridiculous. I'm trying to appeal to the masses, chris. Chris wouldn't understand that from the person. 

59:33 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Okay, if there's genuinely someone who is going to double down regardless, this is probably safer for. 

59:43 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Jacob, of all of your friends who bet, jacob, who are like normal people who bet, how many? If they're betting on a team pregame and their team goes down two touchdowns at half, are they putting a little sprinkle on the team because they got good odds? 

59:54 - Flup (Host)
Okay, but what about, I don't know, I don't think so Times where, like you, bet on a? 

59:59 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Their K doesn't matter anyway. 

01:00:00 - Flup (Host)
What about the extra win? And then you didn't get that extra 10% that you could have bet in the initials, so you lost money in that way. I mean this is just terrible. 

01:00:08 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
It's just ridiculous in general it obviously doesn't appeal to me, but I just cannot imagine sacrificing 10% of what I wanted to bet on something from like an EV perspective. I can't imagine sacrificing 10% on something that may be available later and will be minus EV in all likelihood. I just obviously this, this isn't for me. I don't think my friends maybe one of them would would double down. I don't know, my friends are idiots, like they bet parlays and stuff. So this doesn't I don't know. 

01:00:35 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I bet parlays too, I know, but I sorry. 

01:00:39 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I mean, they're at the front of the bell curve of like. They're idiots. They know betting parlays are bad, but they don't care enough to learn, even though I've tried over the years to explain things to them. Anyways, I don't know this. If you're, if you are genuinely going to bet again if your team is down, then I think this is this going to bet again if your team is down, then I think this is this is advice that could be helpful, because at least you're not betting like 110 of the position. But I would say, just don't just stop betting at halftime when your team is down, like I. Just it wouldn't. I, I think the responsible gaming advocates they just don't fucking double down. Yeah, you're probably right, you're probably right. 

01:01:16 - Flup (Host)
You can't. You can't have this like both ways. Like'm a responsible gambler, but if you want to de-chain, here's the optimal way to de-chain. 

01:01:24 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Go to a different state at 2 am to fire your bets. You got to do what you got to do. Double down at halftime and your bet's losing. 

01:01:33 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Do as I say, not as I do. 

01:01:35 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Right, or maybe don't do as. 

01:01:38
I say in this case the next one that we have is on losing runs, and losing runs in particular, and how people fail to grasp losing runs existing in sports betting. 

01:01:50
I see, all the time somebody will have like even a bad day, like somebody will give out seven picks, they'll go 0-7, something that's bound to happen, something that I think all of us have suffered through, or maybe even larger losing days than just that. Having a bad day like that doesn't make you losing better, nor does a losing streak Now it might make you mean you're losing better, which is highlighted here by Joseph Buchdahl. Hopefully I said that correctly. It says the inability to understand losing is arguably the biggest reason why people fail at betting. It says the inability to understand losing is arguably the biggest reason why people fail at betting. Also, it's important to recognize the smallest difference between the expectation of losing streaks between sharps and squares, illustrated here, showing that squares have a slightly likelier chance of a large losing streak, but only slightly compared to a sharp better. So losing streaks are bound to happen. Flop, do you want to add on anything to this? 

01:02:38 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, this is really good and it kind of even I opened a little bit for me. I didn't even realize it was this close. Like I feel like I have a good grasp and like part of how I track is our team tracks standard deviation of downswing. So I can say like, hey, we're on a two center minus two standard deviation downswing or etc. Etc. And I never like looked at it from this point of view but it shows just like how close you know the difference between sharp and square is, and even a sharp better can experience a very bad downswing that you would think that only would happen to squares. But that's just not the case and I would encourage people to track kind of variants in some way. We have a system set up that can easily do it, but it's not an additional ton of additional extra work. It can really help people visualize hey, am I maybe doing my process wrong or am I just on a bad downswing? Because when you make thousands of bets, bottom 1% runs will happen. 

01:03:35 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
We did touch on this last week. I think Flip had already stepped out before then. But, kanisha, I know you did speak on it a little bit, but maybe just for this specific example here like if you're moving for somebody and they're on a very large losing streak, how much leniency is there from your perspective on that? Like, do you understand that, like, losing streaks are going to happen? What's your opinion? 

01:03:56 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, I mean there's so many like complex factors that go into it, whether it be like are they getting clv? How long have you been moving forward? Do they have an established uh criteria like what? Have they changed anything? Do you see anything differently and how like they're reacting or when they're sending in that. So, um, I mean, there's a little bit of like feel into it too, like can you sense if somebody might have like the markets caught up or they lost their edge or something like that? So a lot really goes into it. 

01:04:27
But for the most part I think it usually just lean on like historical. I've had guys that you know I've been moving for for a long time that have had you know off seasons. Or one guy that you know wanted to then move later in the day to get bigger fills and didn't do as well and then you know like had to like lean it back to and the time they were filling. So there's so many different like market dynamics and little niche things, uh, that you can kind of pick up. Um, I, but I would agree that for the most part I don't. Really it's got to be a you know what I would call some red flags going off in terms of like sustained losing, bad market reactions to make me think that, ok, this person has lost their edge or there's something other at play here. 

01:05:13 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Anything to add Isaac, Go ahead. 

01:05:14 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, I mean I agree with what both Joey and Chris said. I'll say also I'm a big fan of Joseph Buckdahl. I mean I agree with what both Joey and Chris said. I'll say also I'm a big fan of Joseph Buchdahl. I think this is an excerpt from his book Monte Carlo or Bust, which I think is a great book for aspiring sports bettors, if you want to sort of learn more about the math behind this stuff. 

01:05:35
But yeah, downswings are absolutely brutal. They used to do these experiments where you would have people write out a series of coin flips and AI and like computers can basically tell with 100 percent uncertainty whether or not it was actually random or written by humans. And the way that they tell is that humans don't include enough streaks. They alternate back and forth too much, like heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, where in reality it's like heads, tails, tails, tails, tails, heads, tails, heads, heads, heads Like there are just a lot of streaks. It is a super hard thing to internalize. I don't totally agree with him that it's the main reason people end up failing at sports betting. I think it's one of them. But yeah, I mean I know personally, playing a lot of online poker, you just lose eight all-ins in a row and you kind of get numb to it. But yeah, you got to learn how to deal with a long losing streak and no matter how long you've been doing it, it is super fucking painful. 

01:06:27 - Flup (Host)
Great point about the streaks of AI. I didn't know that. That's very interesting to hear, isaac. And then on the poker thing you're talking about you know, for those who play online poker, there's graphs that show you're all in ev and what your actual results are, and I see some graphs that have like substantial dollar amount difference and it's like this would be a good example of like if you're all in, ev is positive but you're all in results are negative. Your process is right, you're just running bad. And like the same could be applied for what joey was saying earlier. Like if you're checking, like if you go 40 and 60 on the next 100 minus 110 bets, but you've got clv 100 times, or 80 of the time, your process is very good and it's likely you just ran bad. So learning how to evaluate if you're if you're bad because you suck or you're bad because of unluckiness is very, very important. 

01:07:21 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I agree. I will say just a couple other things there. First of all, this changes a lot if you're betting long shots. Your variance, if you bet things that aren't minus 110, is just way, way higher. And then also, people are just really bad at evaluating when they're getting lucky or unlucky and they often just ignore the times. You remember your big losses and you don't remember when you did get really lucky, right, I think, like you know. Just poker example again here Right, if you get it all in with aces versus kings and you lose, you're going to remember how bad you ran for so long. But if you win, you still got lucky because you only had like 82 percent equity, right? 

01:07:57
So to that point you're also lucky to get aces in Exactly and there's all these ways, whether it's sports betting, poker, any form of gambling where there's so much luck involved, and we as humans are just very sort of inclined to see all the instances when we get lucky, but then attribute all of our luck to skill. So yeah, being able to kind of accurately see when you're lucky, when you're unlucky One of the most important things, both if you're just a pro or if you're a wreck, just for your mental sanity in general, incredibly difficult thing to do. 

01:08:28 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Well said, let's get to the next topic. Kanish, you're featured in this one because Novig posted a. 

01:08:35 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, Jacob just to be clear. Let's not do a roundtable on this one. It's just go to me, it's my tweet and then we'll move forward, since it's the chopping block. 

01:08:45 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Gotcha. It says what sports will have you like this, and it's the tangled meme of the character with all the swords pointing at him, except it's an AI image of GRP wins in the middle. Instead, you said tennis is the worst sport, the worst spectator sport. Most points mirror each other. No in-depth strategy, constant breaks is horribly boring. And then Ferris, well-respected on gambling, twitter added a few other sports WNBA tennis, golf, preseason football, and then F1 and NASCAR to this list as well. I'm not sure if you agree with those, but tennis, which is Isaac's main sport. 

01:09:22 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yes, you find it boring. I mean it's just a brutal watch. Even I remember isaac in one in our sort of back group chat, like pinging us when it was like I don't know, I don't even remember what the final link it was at alcatraz center or something where, like you gotta watch this. I actually flipped it on for a few games and was like I can't do it. 

01:09:40 - Flup (Host)
You don't like the French Open outfit, do you? You? 

01:09:43 - Joey Knish (Host)
just don't like the French Open outfit Like. 

01:09:46 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I'm out I appreciate you saying that because it was a great watch. 

01:09:50 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, I don't even need to respond, the fact that Joey, just Joey, just in complete self-own. There I will say the one thing I have to add. One of the comments that Ferris made was that right now in the men's game, there's like these two guys, alcaraz and Sinner, who are the best, and so it's kind of boring that they win all of the tournaments. I do get that and I think the reality is, as a fan, as someone who's played the sport for a while, their level is just so high that it's just incredible to watch. But if you're not a fan or you haven't seen it for a long time, you don't really get that and so it just that's. You see that consistency, the same guys, and I can see how it's boring. I will say you know live spectator sport. I think it's great, like there's a lot happening. You're always playing. Talk about live football. I mean there's freaking 17 minutes of play time in a three-hour game. You ever go to a football game live? 

01:10:38 - Joey Knish (Host)
it's miserable, but the beauty of football is between snaps you get all the different, you get new play, you get new strategy, get new defensive schematics. There's a lot of engagement that goes in between snaps. 

01:10:53 - Flup (Host)
That's really intriguing, whereas tennis there is none of that, there's just joey, do you know, like there's different types of like serves you can do, there's different types of like attacks you can serve to the inside or serve to the outside very very intriguing. 

01:11:09 - Joey Knish (Host)
You can serve it hard. 

01:11:10 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, look I love football, but it's like, oh, football you can pass or you can run. 

01:11:15 - Joey Knish (Host)
I mean, come on, you're being no, no, no, very very different um, and it's like, almost, it's like, it's like almost like why people don't watch, you know, cross country and cycling, it's just like you know. Oh, what's the, what's the most impressive thing about stamina, like I mean just a all-around brutal watch, um, and a game that that is long past its time in, uh, in, you know, sports culture all right, I would love to hear opinions on tennis in the comments down below. 

01:11:46 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Are you a tennis enjoyer? Uh, are you another sport that was mentioned there? Are you an enjoyer of that sport? Do you think condition is out to lunch? Give us all of your thoughts and opinions and comments down below. And maybe your obscure sport you like watching, such as darts, for example or before we go up, go ahead growing up the cal sheet thing. 

01:12:04 - Flup (Host)
It is kind of gross that you know carlos and yannick control 87 of the equity. That is pretty disgusting, like, like. But and I do, I would agree like someone like in the in the majors, like round one, round two, it's kind of dumb watching, just like yannick steamroll or Carlos steamroll, but man, when they play even other top ten guys that they are still heavy favorites, it can be very interesting. 

01:12:29 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I'll say yeah, I'll give a shout there. I'll make another horrible prediction here Novak Djokovic at 5% looks good there. I mean I know he's going to get steamrolled by Yannick, but 20-1 for one of the goats. It's hard to ignore. Probably will be sprinkling that. 

01:12:45 - Joey Knish (Host)
Do you like Tiger Woods to win the next major as well? 

01:12:48 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Yeah, you know. Well, you know I'm sad. Soon enough Kalshi will allow us to parlay, so I can get that. I can get Novak Djokovic and Taylor Swift no. 

01:12:57 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Just remember when you make that bet on Djokovic, save about 10% for when he's down in his first game there we go, yeah, when he's down two sets to love versus center and it's 5,000 to one, absolutely. 

01:13:09
So I ruined my good segue, but that's okay. I was going to segue into another sport that's not super popular, which is flag football, and I just can't believe this is. This is real. A lot of people reported it. Rayjean rondo, former nba point guard uh, two-time nba champion, if I recall, top of my head is now officially the number one ranked flag football quarterback in the us. Uh, he claims, rondo, that he could have gone pro if he had chosen football instead of basketball, dropping dimes on and off the court. Now. Now, my what I? What I first thought about this is that on the I don't know if it was this cast, but on Circleback we talked about flag football in the Olympics and flag football guys saying that they're better than the NFL guys. They should be at the Olympics. Nfl guys should not be at the Olympics. If fucking Rayjean Rondo can be the number one ranked quarterback the most important position after retiring from an NBA career if he can be your best quarterback, there's just no fucking way that an NFL player can not perform. 

01:14:04 - Flup (Host)
You're missing the point. You're missing the point entirely. He's played flag football for a while now. If the NFL-. 

01:14:11 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I'll tell you who's played a lot of football Josh Allen and Patrick fucking. 

01:14:14 - Flup (Host)
Holmes no, no, jacob, jacob, if the Chiefs roster and they picked the best players right now and they play a match this Saturday versus top flag football team, I'm taking the flag football team. 

01:14:28 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Oh my God, what would be your timeline? How many months would it take for you to then favor the NFL? 

01:14:35 - Joey Knish (Host)
Four hours, two, three months. 

01:14:39 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I'm thinking like one month, they'll get it down one month two days, give me you know we should get a hammer, a hammer flag football game. 

01:14:48 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
I think even rob could play right, if he's not, if he put on some glasses we should do uh canada versus usa flag football and the beak the only two people left that still think the flag football team has a shot. 

01:15:01 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, beating that when rondo, who's like 40 and retired, is now the best flag football player I do kind of want beak's opinion on this. 

01:15:08 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
how, how can rayjean rondo I get? He's played flag football for a while, but this is a guy who dedicated like 15, 20 years of his life to the nba. He was not practicing flag football and and he just rolls up, he's 40. After a couple years and he's 40 years old. 

01:15:23 - Flup (Host)
This kind of shows you that intelligence is the best part of being a quarterback Right around to be a point guard, and he was a great point guard in the NBA. He was there because he was very smart and could read defenses and play call just as he can do in the NFL. 

01:15:41 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Sorry, in the flag football league I just the first thing I saw with Olympics Beak. If you want to call, call us out again on this one. Please feel free and explain how Rondo is able to do this. Uh, yeah, not I. I don't, I don't believe it. Uh, anyways, last one, ben DiNucci, former NFL quarterback, who has played three games in his NFL career with the Dallas Cowboys, says Not many beer is better than the airport. I just got cut from the NFL for the seventh time. Beer, trust me, you wouldn't understand, and it's a nice-looking pint of beer at the airport. Kind of wanted your guys' thoughts. What is the best beer? Not like the best brand or type, but the best vibe, or? I know Flup doesn't drink, so maybe I don't know. I don't know what we can do for you. Flup, you can find your own, but what's the best? 

01:16:27 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
beer, a nice apple juice. 

01:16:29 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
What's the best vibe for a good like crisp glass of apple juice? Beach what's that? Beach Beach beer. 

01:16:38 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
Beach drink. Yeah, what's that? Beach beach beer, beach drink? Yeah, I don't know. I will say I was, uh, I was on a early flight and uh, a few days ago, at like 6 am, and I just thought it would be a funny bit to go to the bar and get a drink and uh, yeah, that was, uh, that was a brutal. Look the way the bartender was. Like this guy. It's like 5 am time time shifts off at the airport there. 

01:16:57 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
There is no time. You can get a beer at the airport any time of any day. I would say my choice for the best vibe for a beer would be the Friday 5 pm beer. That's what you can enjoy later today. There's no better 5 pm beer than the one before a long weekend. It is a long weekend coming up, so, hey, responsibly enjoy your 5 pm on a Friday beer ahead of the long weekend. But unfortunately that long weekend does mean that there is no show coming to you guys on Tuesday as the Hammer team, including myself, prep for the start of the NFL season. A lot of great content on the way there. Check out all of our other channels with the links that are in the description. If you enjoyed this episode, hit that like button, subscribe to the channel for more and we'll see you again very, very soon. We'll be back with this cast next week, but another circles off video will be ahead of that, so make sure you're tuned in for whatever we have on the way.