00:00 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. 

00:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions it's circle back, episode six, the show where we review the past week in gambling twitter. Rob pazola here, kirk evans, jeff feinberg, the giant, jacob grimania, producing the show today, got lots of topics to cover. I do want to remind you, if you want us to cover a topic on next week's show, use hashtag Circle Back on Twitter. We check that hashtag every week. We incorporate them into the show. Let's start it off, boys, with the election. Last week. 

01:15
I enjoyed the election coverage. As a Canadian I just like kicking back, switching through different news stations, seeing all the coverage. But on gambling Twitter a lot of stuff happened, started with Rufus Peabody, a friend of mine, maybe an enemy of Jeff's. We'll talk about that a little bit. He posted his election betting portfolio, which was very lengthy positions that he accumulated over the course of months, the percentage of bankroll he risked, the average price and didn't end up too well for him. He did admit to that right after the election was done. I don't love the whole here's my portfolio type of situation, especially when people who look at it can't place the bets anymore, like I don't know what this tweet in particular is serving. 

02:10 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I think I'm in between. In terms of posting your portfolio risk, I can see why it's really annoying when, like, there's no price available, but I do think it is interesting for people to see, like OK, this is how someone who is a pro is betting this. Here's how he's looking at it. He's willing to take both sides Yep. Like I think he had popular vote, both ways, yep. But I do agree with you in the sense that that's probably not why he's posting this, but I think it goes both ways. I don't really have much of a problem with that. 

02:42 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I have no issue that this is posted both ways. I don't really have much of a problem with that. I have no issue that this is posted. I actually don't think rufus. 

02:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't see rufus as an enemy, I no, I don't well, if we could get like a backpedaling sound effect here, that would be. No, I don't, nicely, no no, I have enemies. 

02:57 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I have rivals on the internet. I wouldn't consider rufus to be one of them. We fundamentally disagree about something, but I swear I. I don't even think he would want to spend the time, but I would have a drink with Rufus. I could learn a lot from Rufus. There are a lot of people whose tweets come up on here that I would like how do I put this? That I haven't been nearly as aggressive with on the internet, but I wouldn't want to be within 100 yards of them in real life. Rufus, I absolutely would have no issue. Um, that being said, I also have no issue with this. 

03:31
Rufus is sort of a a pre-eminent figure, and we know that he probably is into this hard, and I wish he would do this for literally an nfl sunday or or or pga event. Yeah, I wish he would after this for literally an NFL Sunday or PGA event. Yeah, I wish he would after the fact, even if the prices aren't available, I'd be very curious. The regular PGA event. I'd love to know when he could post it five minutes after tee-off who his no bets are on. I have no issue with this. This is not for you to go out and repeat the bets. This is not for you to go out and repeat the bets. This is now, after the fact, to show you essentially where one of the guys who is very highly regarded has his positions on the night in a big game or in a big event no different than the Super Bowl. 

04:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I think he's done it with Super Bowl props before as well. 

04:21 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But Rufus isn't going to for the Super Bowl. For every prop, let you know. Every time he placed it, put it on either. 

04:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, I know that that's the issue that I have. So, like I saw that tweet when it went out, I started looking at a few positions. I'm like, okay, can I bet some of this stuff right now? What are the numbers at? A lot of the stuff that was bet was maybe no longer available, or like a very niche market where he got down in a specific spot or a lot of the prices had moved a lot. 

04:47
But my reaction to that was more so. Do people find this interesting? Because I don't. You guys obviously did, cause all I was thinking was okay, here's what's going to happen. Either this is going to go poorly for him tonight and then he's going to have people roasting him on Twitter, which is classic. Whenever you lose, bets, bets. That's what people want to do. They want to pile in. Or it's gonna go really well and people are still gonna be upset because they're gonna be like why didn't you post this earlier? Like am I supposed to? To congratulate you on your winning? Like you, you put yourself into a no-win situation, but if there's people that are interested in it, that's very different. Maybe it's just commentary on me not caring. 

05:28 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
A lot of Rufus Betts put him in a no-win situation. No, I don't say that as a, I just say as the fact of life, because even when he wins it's like, oh great, you can risk like 800K to win that Like congratulations, yeah I remember somebody in particular who said that might have said that to him no, that's probably not me. 

05:47
My, my, you're trying to like have something relitigated which doesn't have to happen on this one. But, um, because a lot of people, this did not go well for me. I got tagged a bunch people like oh, this is your chance to like take a piss on rufus you didn't victory lap this at all I. 

06:02
I didn't. I didn't. He put himself out there, he showed his position. Yeah, he acknowledged that this didn't go go well for me. I don't know, my beef is sometimes when things don't go well for him. He's still like. You know, we'll pull a Nate Silver as well. I guess we'll talk about later. My opinion in totality on Rufus and why he had a bad night is, I think, a lot of those bets he made at the jazz club with a lot of his polling cronies in high society that he has sort of befriended over these few years. And, as we know, the pollings went. So they all took, you know, they all made messy, messy yeah and that's how that happened I, I'm with you. 

06:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm with you. I mean we can. We can move on to this. We'll talk about nate silver in a second. I did see a good book at trent tweet, by the way, on election night as well which was kamala money line is a mortal mega max. And then later on he posts the updated live line, which is trump minus 5000 was a good try. Um, keep it going. 

07:09 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
He's such a way he does have a way of finding the losers. I wonder if he starts to do it on purpose, where he wants it to be the loser but he can't know what the losing side is I know he just has a way of doing it. 

07:21 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Yeah, he's one of those guys who you look at and you're like it makes sense why he's so popular. He's very funny. 

07:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, he's funny and it somehow always works out against him. I don't know, but like it's not like one of those things back in the day. I don't follow Ben the Better on Twitter anymore. I don't even know if it's the same person still running the account, but Ben the Better mush. Whatever that person picked, like the opposite side always seemed to come in somehow, and then people were like, well, is this guy? Is this actually a sharp that's giving out the opposite sides or you know, is this guy looking for the wrong side? You can't just look for the wrong side. 

07:56 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
He has come out and said that like seven times yeah, then the better that. He's like I actually was betting the opposite side every time. Yes, which, which was? 

08:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
surely a lie. A big portion of gambling Twitter's election coverage was Steve Fezzik. Fezzik makes his way into every show. Yeah, I think he might be trying to do it on purpose at this point with some of the engagement tweets 100%. 

08:16
Tweets out no typo. I risked $28,000 to win $100 versus Doug Kazarian. I have Kamala popular vote plus 7% versus Trump Later on during election night. Kw Odds tweets Fezzik got to be a little nervous right now when he's looking at the election winner and the popular vote odds that are up there right now, again, I see stuff happen in real time. I see this tweet come out because I have physic notifications on and I'm my notifications got it funny you got when now that we're doing this show, I got tons of notifications. 

08:53 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Did you have it before this show? Is it just because it's new? 

08:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
now and you know we got to acquire some content this comes out and I'm, I'm just there, I I'm like, no Like, no Like, do not tweet this in particular. But now I'm wondering whether he's actually just doing it for the engagement or not. Like, if you made a bet like this with your friend where you have the potential of winning $100 or losing $28,000, we're not putting that out publicly. Like what is the intention? Go ahead, jeff Go. I would just publicly Like what is the intention. Go ahead, jeff Go. Well, I would just you know what Kurt go first. 

09:28 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Yeah, I think it's like not even a question. Fezzik is very much in the game of all publicity is good publicity. He knows this is his bit and this is what he posts. Like he, he wants it to be close. He wants the engagement to be as big as possible. This honestly, probably was a pretty good bet, but he gets it. He knows that this is going to drive more followers. He's a tout. He wants people to follow him. He wants people to think he's smart and this drives engagement to his Twitter account. 

10:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So all I would like to say on this issue is because I agree with both of you, I didn't need to re-litigate that part of it. But just like julia roberts and the democrats thought that the women and the wives could just go into the booth and vote whatever they want in secret. Well, they didn't okay. But here's the truth. You can bet whoever you want in secret you, you can. 

10:23
You don't have to tell anyone who you bet. That's between you and the book, okay. So you want to bet on the Carolina Panthers and don't want to tell anyone, so they don't laugh at you like I did on Sunday morning. I guess now I'm post-Vic laughing. This is past posting. Jeff Come on man Too soon but I didn't want to even talk about it. But I made that bet in privacy like a vote. Yes, In that booth you can bet whoever you want in privacy, but the thing is he's definitely not ashamed. 

10:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I actually think this was a good bet. People don't understand the final line. Here I have Kamala popular vote plus seven percent versus trump the the way that this was termed, like worded all the retweets that are happening. It finds its way into non-gambling communities as well. People thought that he was betting that kamala was going to win the popular vote by more than seven% against Trump. So at the end of election night, literally 90% of the responses are like pay up buddy, like post a receipt, you lost, you're an idiot. This and that because of the wording and it making its way out onto the internet even further. This I mean frankly was I don't want to use the L word like a lock. You know there's public, there's polling that's skewed. It was a very. It was going to win. 

11:50
Like 100% of the time it was going to win. 

11:52 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
The real line on this probably way more than minus 28,000. It's a great bet. 

11:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But when you put this stuff out there now, it's open to interpretation, especially on a bet like this. Yeah, so physics playing the game right now but it worked against him it worked against him I don't think so, you don't think. 

12:11 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
He just wants engagement, yeah, he just wants engagement and the fact that people interpreted wrong drove more engagement. It worked out exactly how we want honest question. 

12:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What do you think is more important to steve fes and I know Fezzik. He stood up for me against Darren Revell. I'll never forget that. I'll never forget that until the day I die. No one else did, fezzik did. But what do you think is more important to him? Getting engagement or people thinking that he's smart? 

12:42 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Getting engagement Number two Because I would bet a lot on people thinking that he's smart Getting engagement Number two, because I would bet a lot on people thinking that he's smart. 

12:49 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
No, I think after the Purdue bet became such a big hit, he realized this is a really good way of driving engagement. 

12:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Okay, it's easy for me to say engagement as someone who he doesn't write paragraphs to in their DMs. 

13:05 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Yeah. 

13:06 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So it's easy for me to say it's an engagement bit. Steve, like he's very fascinating. Find it interesting Because again, he is of how do I put this? Like in the sports gambling Twitter space. He is in the like 0.01% of like older users. 

13:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes. 

13:30 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Right. 

13:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And he's got personality, he's a character. 

13:33 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So there's like a cross there that there's not many people in that tier. 

13:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, like election night is very divisive for a lot of people for obvious reasons. You cast your vote, you're rooting for that side to win and the with the Fezzik thing I you know, I'm, I'm Canadian, we, we, we have rooting interests, obviously, in us politics, but I'm not like it's the end of the world. If Kamala wins, then the world of Trump wins. I'm not in that and most of my friends are are not in that camp as well. And we got a side chat going on in whatsapp the you know classic friends chat and the Fezzik tweet got posted in there and people were just rooting for him to lose all night. And I'm trying to tell people like it's not happening. And they're like Rob, like it's getting closer and whatever, and it's like it's not happening, he's gonna win. You're not understanding the bet, you're not doing this, but I don't think that's what fezik would want in the grand scheme of things. I don't think he's like he wants people rooting against him, calling him an idiot for making big money line plays, like he wants people to people. That was a great bet, as much as it just didn't need to be out there and it caused the adverse effect in my opinion, caused the adverse effect in my opinion, caused the adverse effect. In my opinion, nate Silver published his simulation prior to the election. 80,000 simulations were ran. Harris won in 40,012. 

14:56
A lot of people were not a fan of this, by the way, because especially Harry Crane, who's been beefing with Nate Silver, if anyone hasn't noticed what's been going on, harry Crane, who's been beefing with Nate Silver, if anyone hasn't noticed what's been going on, nate Silver, obviously a very famous figure from previously, with FiveThirtyEight posting numbers on the election, frequently basically At the end of the day. 

15:29
Nate Silver took the L on this by saying the election was 50-50. Very clearly it turned out to not be 50-50. And Harry Crane took the big W on this and kind of crane took the big w on this and kind of called out silver for past posting, because silver then posts the map of how the actual election played out, says took me a bit to realize this. It turns out the actual election map we got on tuesday was the models modal map, the one that occurred by far the most often in our simulations. This, this is past posting 101, I would say If this happened in the betting community they would be roasted. Harry Crane roasted him. I'm just curious on your perspective of this entire situation from the outside, looking in. So I have a lot of strong takes here. 

16:19 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
First off, harry Crane talk your shit Like you got into it on Twitter for months. Yep, people were dunking on you. Talk your shit, absolutely yeah. 

16:30
But I have a serious problem with how people analyze the election after it happens, like no one. Let's say you bet on Detroit last night or you bet on Houston and you got it wrong and you thought of a game script and you got that game script wrong. No one's going to say like, oh, you were so wrong about that. Like there is a lot of unknown and there is a lot of variance. Obviously, politics is a little different, because if you have perfect information, you will know what happens. But no one has perfect information. 

17:05
So you getting that wrong doesn't even necessarily mean your process was wrong when you were doing it. There could just be things that are unknowable. And it's one bet and then it's a series of extremely correlated bets. So I have a hard time Like no one. If you bet a lot on the Super Bowl and Rufus bets a lot on the Super Bowl, let's say, and posts all his picks and all his props and it's a bad game, no one thinks, oh, he's a bad bettor because of that. But people think, oh, nate's off, nate's washed, whatever. I just have a tough time with that because elections are so singular and people draw such massive conclusions from them. I don't know, it might just have been unknowable and his model could have been right, but there could have been things in the polling that weren't possibly to be known and crane could process, could have been wrong, and it's just one event, one event that he got lucky on. 

17:57 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, exactly, that's fair that is fair and like, definitely in the range of outcomes. But nate definitely, you know, was talking out of both sides of his mouth a lot through the entire process. 

18:13
Yeah, and you know he had the equivalence of like bragging, like he kissed a girl, when you find out that girl's his sister yeah yeah I agree and, and to your point, internet rules state like harry crane, buddy, throw him like he doesn't just get, like one in the holster like lucy yeah, had you know. 

18:37
Per internet rules, right, he has. He's got a week of whatever he wants to unleash on these people. And I firmly believe, as someone who, like a lot of people, got inundated in the process, the political theater of it you could tell for a while all of these pollsters. They were just out there protecting their industry, just out there protecting their industry. All they didn't need, all they were desperate to do was be relevant again in two years and in four years and in six years there was a, a collective of. If I'm a pollster, what is most important to me is is protecting this industry of polling that we have created, that has made us a lot of money, um. So it's always good to see them, see them get it wrong and unfortunately, like I said, for a while a few of them thought they knew everything in the world and they gave rufus some bad information at the jazz club. 

19:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep, I I'll say this in regards to so I I have met both Nate Silver and Harry Crane before. I think they're both extremely intelligent people. 

19:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm not debating that Nate's a genius 100%. 

19:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But to me, like Nate was working with flawed data, and I went back and I revisited a lot of the arguments that were happening in this situation and Harry was one of them. That was kind of like pointing out that, yeah, there's a lot of the data that here is flawed. I actually think Nate Silver's model is the best election model With the amount of time he's put into it. He's consistently put. But when you're working with flawed data and plugging that into your model, you're going to get flawed outputs. So it's not a criticism of the model itself, which I actually think is very good. It was the data being fed into that model and that was Harry Crane's point. 

20:35
That was, if you guys saw the French guy who won like 40 million betting on Polymark, everyone was wondering, including myself. We've talked about this. All this money is coming in on Trump. For a month leading up to the election, million dollar bets at a time, and the prevailing theory from a lot of people was maybe this election market is not efficient at all because you got one whale who's supporting Trump that's just dumping money into the market. Well, it turns out it wasn't a whale supporting Trump, it was a quant that was basically looking at data and saying, well, I'm matching, you know, the polling in previous years to specific regions and it's not lining up with the way that they actually vote. On top of that, there's this effect of people who don't want to reveal that they're voting for Trump. That's a very real thing and he just applied logic to this and he made a killing off of it. 

21:28 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Guess what happens nowadays, like I know, it's an easy low-hanging fruit thing to say I've never been pulled, I've never been exit-pulled, I've never been anything okay, and I'm home to answer that call. That being said, you come knocking on my door now. I got that fucking thing on my phone. I see exactly who's there. I don't move a muscle. Okay, I don't move a muscle. 

21:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Doorbell rings at the Feinberg home. You see them with the pins on and like the badges at the front door and you're like no, no, no, yeah, listen, I got better things to do. 

22:00 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah we're not moving a muscle, so they're all just making up whatever they wanted they may like. I'm telling you I don't even believe people were afraid to to say this time around, I believe the whole thing is like a sham well, there's the, the neighbor polling that has been talked about now, which I think will be a big thing for next election. 

22:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But um, what does that mean? Again, so it was. It was this french guy who made a killing on the election remains anonymous. But um, basically, there's a new form of polling where they ask you who you think your neighbors will vote for, and a lot of times people. It's a more accurate representation of the entire market, because people give their own voting preference, as if that's who their neighbor is going to vote for. Because it's kind of like a way to seep into the unconscious, so to speak, if someone doesn't want to admit who they're voting for. But now you ask them who do you think your neighbors are going to vote for, they're probably going to respond with who they're voting for. 

23:03 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Yeah, I think that makes sense. I don't know that I read that with, because that's what the French guy was like. A lot of his thesis was yeah. Again, I would just say it was one at one event. It's one event Like, again, the rules of the internet I totally agree and the rules of life. You know you can't get paid in theoretical money. 

23:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that guy made 40 million and talk his shit, but again, when you're actually evaluating it, it's a one, it's true, it's one of that you could pick you could pick any one super bowl that I bet on and got completely wrong, and say rob's a complete idiot and someone who's a complete square got it right, and say that person got it right and it would be a total injustice to do that. It'd be a total injustice to do that. Speaking of injustices, the NFL two-point conversions conversation. Two two-point conversions were widely discussed in primetime games. Last week. Monday night football the Kansas City Chiefs took on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Buccaneers scored late in the game. They decided not to go for two. They didn't see the ball again. Game went to overtime. Chiefs won the toss. They went down, scored a touchdown. Thursday night football it's Bengals-Ravens. Bengals score late in the game to cut the lead to 35-34. It's 38 seconds left on the clock and they to cut the lead from to 35 34. It's 38 seconds left on the clock and they decide they're going to go for two. They don't get it. They lose the game. 35, 34, two different decisions. Both teams lose the game. 

24:33
Lots of conversation about whether or not it was right or wrong, and we see all sorts of stuff stemming from this. Jacob, you can advance. Uh, here the slides as well. Ian McMillan, love Ian. I'll take some shots at him for this particular conversation. Everyone was just calling the Buccaneers idiots for not going for two in this situation Monday, but now the Bengals are idiots for going for two tonight. I don't know why people can't just evaluate each individual instance like it's its own separate situation, because that's what these are like. There's no right answer of always go for two here. Always you have to evaluate all the things so by comparing one game to another. It's not apples to apples like there's very different instances. Here might been similarities on the clock, timeouts, things of that nature, but it's very fair to roast one team for making one and also agree the other instance. It's not correct, but that's within the realm of possibility. 

25:35 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Yeah, the Bucks were nine-point dogs and the Bengals. It was a pretty close spread. I think both teams were wrong for going for two. But I totally agree. They have nothing to do with each other other than they're like somewhat similar. Yes this. 

25:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
To me, though, is the most polarizing discussion on nfl gambling twitter is the conversation of when to go for two. It happens all the time, and the reason that it frustrates me so much is because 99 percent of the people have no fucking clue what they're talking about when it comes to this, but they're so vocal in their opinion of whether or not it's right. Keep going ahead here, jacob, really quickly, but we see a few things that influence One. We got Seth Walder posting. The ESPN probabilities of this is what the win expectancy is if you go for two versus if you kick the extra point. The problem is that he says this comes with the important caveat that it assumes a 50 50 overtime. So already this is useless because your probabilities are skewed overtime's not 50 50. It always favors the team that is is the better team or the favorite team. 

26:42
Then we got more stuff here. Uh, jacob as well. Where we look at, you know, roger sherman, here's why going for two was the right call, because the baltimore ravens scored four straight touchdowns. Obviously they were going to just go down the field and score another touchdown if they got the ball and then digs. Who's one of my, you know a very sharp nfl better. Here's why you don't know what you're talking about and he circles the time, and that that's the thing. Like most people are making opinions on this stuff that are completely uninformed, and it drives me fucking crazy, jeff, it drives me nuts I would. 

27:21 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I do agree each, each instance is its own organism. Yes, and there were also instances last week which didn't like. The Eagles went for it a ton and didn't get it, and then it left them in that weird spot at the end where it almost cost them and they needed the pick versus the Jaguars. Yep, the Patriots tie it with like like an insane, like 14-second play. So I think I mean I don't know whether Mayo would have gone for two, but if you watch that live, you could see how the whole offense was probably exhausted after the play. That just happened. They kick it, they lose anyway. Yep, yep. 

28:01
Right, the Titans got the ball first and pretty much held it for eight minutes and kicked a field goal. So everything is its own organism. As a guy that takes in all the ball, the eyes are blurry from all the ball watching. I really thought Tampa needed to go for it. Now, the caveat in all of this is and if you watch the Sunday Nighter this week with Detroit and Houston, it's become quite apparent They've already acknowledged 50-yard field goals. We've already hit more of them across the league this year than ever. Right, so me starting at the 30, only needing pretty much to get to the other 40 at this point, because the 57s are in play now Right With a high NQb and my timeouts seems pretty achievable, like so I don't really have an answer other than um, I agree, they've taken up the discourse and I've wasted too many words saying I don't have an answer. 

28:58 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I think what people don't fundamentally understand and it was on the tweet as well. I know you're criticizing the 50 50 thing, but the esbn tweet made I think what is the point that people don't understand, yes is that if you kick the extra point, you change the mindset. Yes, versus if you go for two. That is what people do not fundamentally understand. Yes, if the game is tied and there's 38 seconds left, the teams are willing to run the ball, or if they're in any sort of bad situation, they will take the overtime. 

29:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is quantifiable too as well. You can look at past game situations over the years and see how teams fare. So here's the difference. Right, if a game is tied and you have the ball and you're starting whatever on your own 25 yard line, 30 yard line and the first play you take an offensive holding penalty and you're going to first and 20. Now a lot of coaches in that situation will try, like a shorter type of play, to see if they can pick up yardage to determine whether or not they want to push forwards, and there's a higher likelihood that a team will just say you know what, it's not in our best interest to push here because of the probability of a turnover. 

30:12
There's so many negative plays that happen and on top of that, they punt on fourth down. If it gets to it like if you have fourth and four random numbers by the way, fourth and two on your own 45-yard line late in the game and the game is tied, the vast majority of the coaches are going to punt. But now if you're trailing by one, they're going to go for it. In that situation it's not the same. So all these things play a factor, but it is a quantifiable math problem, like you have. Live odds over the course of a game. If sportsbooks can build out an algorithm that tells them what the live odds of the probabilities of overtime are, other people can as well it. It's very justifiable to just kick the extra point when there's more time left because you do not want to incentivize the team to have to go for it. 

31:02 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree, but in some instances it's like 25 seconds, yep, and that's literally. Yeah, if they don't have time, you go for two, yeah, no, but that's literally. But the other team I mean that's literally. Even if they're tied, even if you kick it to go for one, they'll use those 25 seconds the exact same In some instances, sure, because there's only enough time for pretty much. I'm going to burn it or I'm going to get there. 

31:29 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
But, some teams will shut it down. Yeah, exactly, teams will shut it down. 

31:32 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, some will shut it down, but we're not talking about those teams, we are. 

31:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, we're talking about those. Kyle Shanahan would shut it down with the 49ers, but in the instances that people are talking about. 

31:43 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
we're talking about Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. If they were to go down one, yeah, so I could see that potentially a little different. I maybe it's just my perception of it. No one is better. You talk about that first down play. 

32:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

32:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
The Chiefs will get 8 to 12, at least in kelsey's day. He's a little past it now, but yeah, they'd get 8 to like 14 yards on the first play. Yes to him at least every time versus the chargers, I know for a fact. And then the winning drive is just like off and running chiefs and bucks let's, let's, let's just say the bucks go for two and they get it. 

32:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
In that situation we now know the chiefs are trailing, they're gonna have 30 seconds, they have their timeouts and they have four downs, which is a big difference. That is like they are going to use all of their downs no matter what, with those timeouts. Now I'm not saying a field goal like you get into field goal range, you have to kick the field goal. That matters too. But there's so many circumstances we see it at the end of first halves all the time in the NFL Chiefs that first down play. Mahomes takes a sack, mahomes gets. There's a holding penalty. Now it's first and 20. They've run time off of the clock. And guess what? That second down play doesn't go well. If the game is tied, there's there's propensity for teams to run a draw on third down kneel. It just go to overtime, play for overtime. It's the motivation that makes the big difference in a, in a tie game, versus trailing game. 

33:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
State the chiefs. One bothers me so much because todd bulls and I, even after the fact, wanted to hear his post-game presser and his day after, yeah, media scrum to hear what sort of moronic response. Yeah, he would come up for it, because I'm not. I'm not debating the two now. They got a first and goal from the one with a running clock, yeah, and he stopped it right away and he's like the offense looked confused. I didn't want a false start, so you keep him in a huddle, you let 15 seconds burn and then you use the timeout. That was, it's like his answer, his answer just made him seem dumber. 

33:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, listen todd, listen, todd bowles runs a very good defense and this isn't like NFL radio here, but coaches do dumb things all the time. That was way more moronic than the decision to actually yeah, that was no matter what Exactly. 

34:11 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
It's a classic thing that all the focus goes on one thing that decision was pretty marginal. When there was a decision 30 seconds earlier, that was way dumber, way more clear. And this is why nfl teams should have like the best madden players in the world on a headset. Yeah, giving advice, because madden players have had reps. Yeah, they know they can. I literally said no, no I said. 

34:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I said you wanted to win the chargers. I mean they never should. We're going back now with anthony lynn. You know how. They put nasa astronauts in a simulator, yeah, and they make them troubleshoot. I swear to god, they should build one of those fucking machines for coaches and they just make them simulate it on the fucking floor how to tell the time, because they don't even need to make one of the machines. It's literally a ps5 okay but I'm saying, you even make it more elaborate um the problem? 

35:05
the problem is that in so for so many of these teams, it's systemic right like no, but it's like they put the racers in, they put drivers into a simulator but so many of these, these teams themselves at the top level, don't even understand that there's problems within the decision making. 

35:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like you watch teams throw a goal line fades over and over with no success at the top level, don't even understand that there's problems within the decision-making. 

35:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Like you watch teams throw goal-line fades over and over with no success. It does seem like some of these teams even hire these analytics guys just to get the nerdy bloggers off their ass and they actually don't even. They'll pay these guys a salary, a whole department, just to keep nerd NFL media like off of them from being stupid. But they don't even listen to the opinions that they're giving them listen? 

35:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I would never. Eric Eager was part of the hammer betting network. He's now the VP of analytics for the Carolina Panthers. I would never reach out to him and talk to him about this stuff, nor would I expect him to talk to me about this stuff. I see some stuff happening with the panthers organization this week, specifically the contract extension to chuba hubbard, and I'm thinking to myself. I'm like I know eric, I've worked with him in content. I talked to him every day for years. There's no way he advocated for this. So you, you really have to wonder, exactly like you're saying, jeff, whether or not teams are even in the position to make proper moves, because it's still so old school in a lot of instances, to be fair. 

36:31 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean, in some of these cases it's like you know. And then people you know, we see some of these tweets only because eric's my friend and I take some of it like slightly, maybe more personally than I should like people blaming him for things the panthers do. Yeah, I'm like this is a guy, it's his first year on the job. It's not like he's the gm, it's not like the decisions are his. I'm sure they invite him into the room, they ask him his opinion, yeah, but once they make a different opinion, um, he's got to get on, he's got to get on board with it and there's probably lots of things people don't know. For all people know they'd have paid Chubba 10 and a half a year if not for consulting. 

37:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Eric Yep, the thing that gets me with the two-point conversation. 

37:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
One here Love him. He's from up the road, bro, he's from here, he's local. 

37:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's a local guy. Chubba Really yeah. 

37:18 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
So is John. 

37:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Mechie caught a touchdown. Canadians are taking over the NFL. They're taking over the NFL, in particular, this conversation. The thing that gets me is listen, everyone's entitled to an opinion on everything, but this is not like opinion-based, really. You can argue that some of the math that's being used is a little off in some situations, but it's not something that is rooted in stating an opinion. It's quantifiable. It's quantifiable, so, like I don't, I like to speak on things that I know for pretty high degree of certainty are true. Everyone weighs in on this conversation. It's no different than me. 

37:57
Like standing over a surgeon when he's operating and being like no, no, you don't do this, you know there's too much blood there and whatever. And he's like well, you know, this is what, like it, I, I don't give up, but this is. It drives me insane because people argue to the death about oh, you gotta go there, you got, then you get. Like the results based analysts are like look what happened. They ended up losing the game. You could make the right decision and lose the game. That's like that happens regularly, right? It's these types of things that drive me crazy, about the discourse on gambling, twitter in particular. Agreed, what are you gonna do. Such is life. I'll just live with it for a long time. 

38:34
Uh, fake bet slips question mark. A few people sent this to me via dms and I had never noticed this before, but now I'm gonna talk about it a little bit because it's I find it really weird. So Trent is up here again. Uh, it's not the tweet I'm so much concerned with. It's the image attached to the tweet. If you're listening, you might want to hop over to YouTube If you want to see the image. Um, trent tweeted this from his account and I noticed that book it has started to tweet it from their main account as well, which are bet slips that aren't bet slips. They're just a graphic of a bet slip, but they oddly include the wager amount on the slip and it could very easily be misleading. I I don't know like, does this bother you at all? Or because? 

39:24
a couple people sent it to me. They're like no, this is not right. I was like I get it. 

39:28 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
What's supposed to have the games? There's just supposed to be odds on this fake. 

39:32 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
No, just the fact that they have a fake slip with money to imply he's betting a lot of money, but with no proof it's that those two thousand dollars have actually been wagered. Yeah, I think. I think it coming from Trent especially is bad, because there's kind of the allegations of like is he even betting real money? 

39:50 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But like, if you're doing a show and you're someone like a producer's building, you Chiron for the show and why would they ever put the wager amount on the bets, though? 

40:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Every single graphic in the history of like play, this parlay is just the legs of the parlay well also, it wouldn't be. 

40:07 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
It would be a lot less bad if it was ten dollars right to win whatever, yeah, versus the fact that the wager amount is two thousand and the whole bucket brand is like bet, stupid stuff for a lot of money. 

40:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a bad luck I think so too, like I it's. It's just so odd to me that they would put that in the graphic. I don't know why. I'm hung up on it now, but it doesn't like. It's one thing to post this, post a slip like, post a screenshot of whatever your sponsor is and the amount, the dollar amount and what you're winning. That's fine, like you. But once you're not posting the real slip, there's no reason to have the bet amount on there at all I agree that should just have the odds of the ticket. 

40:46 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, we're supposed to have the wager, the win. I agree. 

40:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think it is plausible that this was literally a design guy in the back and no one didn't have a fucking clue, he just they actually sent him a bet slip and he just replicated it because they don't want to post, like a specific book, necessarily something, but that is plausible. 

41:04
And and it could be completely nothing, but it also could be nefarious yeah, I wonder if we just start producing graphics like fifty thousand dollar bets on jeff's uh three game, uh, pga tour parlay this week, you know yeah, we could just say this is our version of the notebook, like it's yeah, we can actually have an actual notebook, fake handwriting, with the wager amount and to win yeah, really unusual. 

41:30
I still am like I don't actually think it's deceptive, though Like the people that sent this to me, they really want me to go in on. You know, this is a joke. I actually think that the most plausible scenario is someone said we need a graphic for the Fugazi 5. Here here's the bet slip. Turn it into a graphic and the graphic guy just threw the wager amount that was on the bet slip in there. But it shouldn't be there. 

41:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, book it in turn. Exactly, didn't know. 

41:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, All right. True worst beat. We talked about bad beats last week with Malachi Corley dropping the ball, walking into the end zone. Uh, we tweeted from our account what's your worst beat of all time? You can follow us on Twitter at circles off HQ. Uh, Van Zach says 2017. Masters, I have a Justin Rose future on a BTC exchange Bitcoin exchange that will pay 105 Bitcoin at that time, about 125k. Horrible late collapse with the lead made it a normal bad beat. The fact that 105 Bitcoin at today's price is around $8 million makes it the bad beat that will never go away. I have a lot of experience with betting Bitcoin exchanges back in the day and you got to not do this to yourself. Like if you're betting in a currency that is not like a stable amount and fluctuates as heavily as crypto, you cannot go back and look at your past bets. You cannot do it. It's not good for your sanity $50,000. 

43:00
NBA props. Yes, I used to bet on nitrogen. I don't think nitrogen exists anymore. They kind of do, but we don't want to give any publicity. 

43:11
Sure, back in the day I would just fire bets like sweats. I'd get home and I'd be watching a game and I'd be like, all right, I'm just going to fire. If I go back and look at those, like those were half bitcoin bets. It turned into like forty thousand dollar props, literally on on a game. I don't even want to check if they won or lost and I'm up long term off those bets because I'll tilt like you gotta. You gotta. Just not think about it that way yeah, so I think. 

43:40 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
One, this is obviously like a very funny tweet. Two, I feel really bad for this guy because, like that this is something that I would lose sleep over for sure. Like I can already. I like think a lot about like big edges that I've had that I didn't like go hard enough on, like, yeah, that those things definitely get to me so I could like this guy can never go to sleep the same again. But also, realistically, if he won 125K and 105 Bitcoin it's not actually 8 mil Like he's probably taking most, if not all, of that out of Bitcoin. Like the idea that he would just sit that money in Bitcoin for these seven years and it would accumulate to 8 mil Like that's just not what would happen. 

44:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You glass half full kind of guy, but it's a funny tweet it is. I mean, listen, I famously told this story, but we have a lot of new viewers here who never heard this before. But when I first started betting full time and I was working with a group, it came time to settle. And they're like send me your Bitcoin address. I'm like like fuck, is a bitcoin right? Like I'm like can we just like you send me cash or pay me like via paypal? Or they're like it's got to be bitcoin or so I'm. I'm searching bitcoin on google. I'm getting bitcoin. Is a scam this? And that? I'm like what the fuck? You guys are trying to scam me out of my winnings? Like I won 40k. I want the money. They're like you're getting bitcoin or you're not getting anything. 

45:05
So I registered. You know, I created a, a wallet at that time. Electrum, I think, was the. The wallet I created. I accepted the bitcoin and I accepted it at. I don't remember exactly how much they paid me at the time. I I want to say I was like 400 US. What Bitcoin was worth at? 

45:24 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
that time. 

45:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It came time to. You know, I moved into a new house, had to let the foundation settle for a couple of years before you can finish the basement, or else you void the warranty of the foundation or whatever Came time. My wife's like we got to do the basement. I'm like all right. Like where are we getting the money to do the basement? She's like why don't you sell some of your Bitcoin? I'm like you know what it's at 1,300 bucks, I've tripled. All in all, a $30,000 basement renovation. It's. 

45:58
It was over a million dollar renovation in today's you, you know, six years later or whatever, and at the time, like I, did think about it for a while and now I just look back on it and I laugh. And, by the way, that's, that was like a substantial chunk of Bitcoin. If I, if I had kept it, I'm probably not doing the show. 

46:17 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
You probably would have used it on something else. It wasn't a basement. There would have been another thing that would have come out Bingo. 

46:22 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Also, the thing about this tweet specifically is like if he believed enough in Bitcoin that he was going to keep 125K in it I don't know this guy he could have easily bought a lot of Bitcoin himself, which he probably didn't. So the idea that he would keep that money again is just super unlikely to me. But I and it's it's tough to think about. 

46:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's tough. I mean, listen, I've, I've I, drunk sent a crypto sports book uh, bch, bitcoin cash instead of bitcoin. One day I was hammered, I got, I sent like eight. I lost eight thousand dollars in one transaction, didn't know what I was doing, never recoverable like I've made so many mistakes in the crypto space before. I think, though, as long as you got in on crypto early, you can kind of look back and laugh now. 

47:07
But, word of advice, do not go back to old crypto sports books and look at bets, because you were. If you were betting strictly in BTC or some other form of crypto, they're going to look like massive bets. Now, that was never your intention at the time. Golden state warriors futures I forgot. I put in a future at the beginning of the year. By the end of the year was was five times the amount, and I was sweating so hard. I'm like I didn't mean to have this much on the warriors to win the nba title. I only wanted the amount I put in at the time, but the crypto is fluctuating. It's crazy. It's crazy. That seemed like a long time ago. 

47:44
Also a long time ago, 25 years ago, pinnacle came into business in canada, and they've been here ever since. It's because they treat their players fairly. They got a great product, low margins. They post the risk limits so you always know how much you can bet on any possible game prop, whatever you want. It's great sports book. Make sure you check them out if you're in Canada Pinnaclecom slash hammer. If you want to do so, I highly recommend them. Been betting with them for a long time Must be 19 plus. Not available in the US. As always, please bet responsibly. 

48:16
Before we get into our next topic here as well, 70% of people who watched last week's episode are not subbed here on the Circles Off channel. Take two seconds. Hit that subscribe button down below. Also, if you enjoy the content here, make sure you smash that thumbs up. Leave us a comment as well on any of the topics that we cover today. 

48:35
Chicken Dinner is a brand started by a friend of mine, sam Panijatovic Sammy P as he's known, and one of the schticks for years from the Chicken Dinner Twitter account has been the bartender the bartender being a friend of Sam's, who is square, who is the guy that's always like I got the lock for this week. Sam tweets out the picks and over the years, he's accumulated a bad record, roughly 40% over a large sample. But then this year things are turning and the bartender's starting to hit. He's starting to win, which prompted Sam to tweet Bartender is dot dot, dot. Good question mark. I'm curious if both of you have someone that you just blindly fade or like hate their opinion so much that when they're on the same side as a bet of yours, you actually become like scared and consider even dumping the position that you're on. 

49:33 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Yeah. So I would say in terms of the mush character, I don't really have that. Maybe if Bucket with Trent was on a really big bet I had, maybe I'd be like oh god damn, but I don't really think about that. The only people I've ever faded and I will say I've paid for their service before and I think they are good bettors, but not a pure blind fade, but it's certainly pretty aggressive is RAS NFL. At least last year they had a stretch where pretty much none of their plays closed on NFL, or the vast majority didn't, to my memory. I'm sure they'll be in my mentions talking about this. 

50:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, you've already beefed with Ed from Right Angle Sports. 

50:22 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Again. Also advice to Right Angle Sports change whoever runs your Twitter. But, that being said, when they steamed the market two and a half points in an NFL side and pretty regularly were maybe getting a half point of close, I thought that it was worth fading and I did it. I think maybe made some money on it. It wasn't like something I was super aggressive with, but that's the only person I've ever that's interesting. 

50:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you didn't fade someone because you thought they were just gonna be a bad better in the long run. You just fade them because they over move the market yeah, yeah exactly. 

50:54 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
The market moves a ton and I just thought that the market thought they had a much bigger edge than they did. 

51:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Are you a blind fader or are your friends the guys that fade? You? No, I mean maybe at times. 

51:10 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm sure there's lots of people who watch some of my things and want to fade. I am a sophisticated square Because when I'm being a square, like 99% of the times I know I'm being a square Right. So I don't really pick on like actual sharps with models. It'd be more in like a personal level, friends of mine, group chat, like you just know who like that number just seems small, it seems weird and they're like absolutely on it. It'd be that sort of thing. People in the workplace I could think about people I've worked at at every single place I've been who, uh, anytime a game is being is being discussed, uh, our boy, cam stewart, these days does videos, um, for like a hockey group, yeah, and his buddy who he does those with I used to work with, openly faded him in the office. I'll openly fade him sometimes when I watch those videos. 

52:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you do, you do openly. 

52:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't have an opinion and I want to bet a TV game. 

52:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I strongly believe that you might as well just randomly throw a dart, because it's the exact same thing. 

52:19 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, that's fine, but I know that person loses more than they win. So, in the same way, you are sharp and you're an edge. I know there's no edge here. This is a historically losing better, so why not just fate like it's a TV game? 

52:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll just go against you. So here's the reason why this is, this is my. 

52:38 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean, I do this a ton, it's not like I'm, oh, no, no. And, by the way, I'm so stubborn I've got my own opinions like I've got to be opinionless. Yes, to need to be hunting, the fate got it and desperate to want action on like a late night awesome tv college game or thursday night football. Yes, that's not like normally how I bet, but if I'm hunting for it, this is how I would hunt for it. 

52:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, and listen, you're entitled to bet however you want to bet. My whole thing is do you like? And this is where the bartender thing, where it's rooted in, because Sam used to message me on the side. He's like, ah, like bartender likes this, I'm like I don't care, honestly, because probably what, after this guy picks a thousand games, he's gonna be close to 500 and he will have just lost because he's gonna juice out on all these games. Right are, are there people, people that are so bad that they're capable of picking 40 percent over a very, very long stretch? That's where I doubt it I doubt it. 

53:31 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, but here's the other part of it. In the same way, like you and all the sharp bettors out there, like really sharp, um, how do I put this? And listen, I gave sharp bettors. I guess I give them a compliment. I was like saying, like you guys, you know you're, you're way less lazy than I thought, or something. And and digs was like no shit. Well, I take it back when it comes to Diggs, because that guy's got all the free time in the world to watch every single piece of content that's ever been created. He should be working harder at making bets. 

54:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, he's attended like four fucking Taylor Swift concerts. He could be. Yeah, I don't know. 

54:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Maybe he should be working harder at bets than accounting everything Hitman and Fezzik say. I mean I enjoy the content, but maybe he could. He could pick up his uh, he could put a little more time into those, I think I think he's at the desk working hard all day. 

54:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All day, for especially during nfl he spent too much time distracted by other people though other sharps that he's like he's hate following or or hate visually I can't hate on this because I do the same thing, observing the hate steam. 

54:40 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I will say I will say in defense of digs, at least in my defense of something I do very often. When I tweet something inflammatory, it's when I've been working at the desk a lot during a day and I know I need to be on my computer for the next six hours and I don't have much juice. So I'm like, okay, I'm gonna send something that I know is gonna really piss people off. So people start replying. 

55:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's next level stuff. It gets me some more energy. 

55:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I got no issue when he wants to. 

55:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's crazy. 

55:08 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
The hate fuels me. He does this to get energized. I like that I know I'll stay at the desk if I'm getting spammed by people. 

55:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
so mad at me If a person you really hate sends you a comment that pisses you off, it like Exactly. 

55:20 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Yeah. 

55:21 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, and listen, respect to digs like because the service is appreciated, like time stamping other touts yeah, listen, tailing other touts Like I'm not saying that's not an appreciated, uh service. So I I simultaneously thank for it, but I want to. I didn't even mean to go there, I just wanted to get back to so in the pro betting space, your edges, they're everything. You'll play them to my casual friends who want to bet on a sunday, and sometimes me. Every game isn't a one-off, it doesn't affect a mortgage payment or it's not their fucking job. So you me having 50, you having 53 ping pong balls in there and me having 47, like it's still fucking, yeah, you're still throwing a dart. 

56:11
You're still throwing like pretty much the same dart on this game. I get how you need that edge to bet every day on anything you need to sustain a living and to be responsible and methodical, but it's all just fucking dart. 

56:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Slightly. I know what you're saying but that difference of six points, six percentage points, is enormous in the betting space because it's the difference of overcoming the big, but not if you don't care. 

56:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But to who works all day and has like a real job where they're getting a a nice paycheck every two weeks. The effort to offset that might not be worth their time agreed, so they're just bad in the game. 

56:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would I mean, if I have a full-time job, I could never bet nfl the way that I do or hockey the way I do now. 

56:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But I agree, like Pizza Buffet, you do a great service on Sunday morning. It doesn't matter who you are, what you have, you should not be unloading. This is not when you should be unloading on these games. There's just such a better way to do it, agreed? 

57:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, I'd love to get that message across If you don't know what we're talking about. Like Sunday morning, nfl limits are pretty high. Sports books are taking big bets. The reason they're taking big bets is they're very confident in the pricing that they've set at that point, like that's not your time to bet Bet earlier in the week. But yeah, I mean that's I don't. I used to fade people when I was younger because I thought it mattered, and then I kind of just realized that it does. I'd rather just flip my own coin on a game. Honestly, I would rather just quote, unquote, really put like a shitty handicap together for a game in two minutes and bet my own opinion, rather than just blindly fade someone else's. I think other people do it too, so that they have someone to blame other than themselves. 

57:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Maybe, but that's also why I love sports betting so much more than if I go to. I'm not really into blackjack. I feel like I'm fighting the felt the whole time. I just like to make my own decision. If I've got a 47% chance here, I'd rather be a stubborn sports fan and make my own decision than play the cards. 

58:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Got it. Money line hit rates. Our next topic here, uh dan's ai sports picks is the gambling twitter account at dan gamble ai. I was floored by the amount of followers that this guy had on twitter. I've never seen this account before. It's a good thing I haven't. Um, I got tagged in this, of course. College football hit rates. Here are the teams playing this weekend with the highest hit rates on the money line ats and totals, and it's just a list of money lines, eight spread records and I don't know what we're supposed to get out of the highest hit rate on money lines are just undefeated team. 

58:55 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Yeah, so ai is really. Uh, the power of ai is how we're supposed to get out of the highest hit rate on money lines are just undefeated team yeah so ai is really uh, the power of ai is how we're getting it out of control that they can tell you that miami, who hasn't lost a game, has a 100 hit rate on on money lines. 

59:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's unbelievable oregon minus 3000 versus maryland. I mean, they're 100 hit rates. What is the value in tweeting out anything related to this team is 6-0 straight up. It's essentially the same thing, right? This team is 7-0 straight up this week and they're minus 380 on the money line. Who cares? It's the same as saying like a team is 7-1 ATS this year tops in college football. 

59:33 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
It doesn't make a difference. It's way worse. It's way worse. It's way worse. The money line saying their hit rate against the money like there could be information in a team being 7-1 against the spread versus just saying a team's hit rate on the money, that's literally nothing. That's just their record. That's just their record. 

59:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just their record. Artificial intelligence at its finest right here. 

59:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So there's a lot of times where I don't want to say that many, but there's a handful of times where these tweets come out and I feel self-conscious. I'm like, am I really stupid? Because I don't get it. 

01:00:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, no, you're not stupid. There's nothing to get. 

01:00:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Okay, thank you, Because this one I really just don't get. 

01:00:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There is nothing to get. Also, I hate to call you out on this, because this is something else that I don't get, and I just noticed it right now as you changed your position. But the socks with the slides is not. 

01:00:29 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I don't like that. Look. I love socks and slides. Questionable to wear it on a podcast. Be fair, do you like? Live close by? Did you walk here? I did walk here. I live like five minutes away from here, but yeah, that changes it a little bit. I'm like a very much you know what I do. 

01:00:44 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
What I do, I don't have to go into an office it's a massive benefit to me. 

01:00:50 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I don't really report to anyone, so I like living my life comfortably. It's good. So I I don I did questionable on a podcast, To be fair. I'm really pushing it. 

01:01:00 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean not even on a podcast. If there was like a desk and no one had to see that you could get away with it. 

01:01:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I never liked the socks and slides look. But it's better for the podcast than being barefoot. I don't get people who say I don't like socks and slides Like what Podcasts? 

01:01:14 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
and being barefoot. I don't get people who say I don't like socks and slides Like what. You want me to be barefoot? That's disgusting, I don't mind, okay. Like if my feet were out right now. Yeah, no that's weird. 

01:01:25 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Socks and slides like by the pool is weird, but in general, if you live in like a city and you're just running an errand or something, I actually don't think it's that weird. In the summertime this is me. 

01:01:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is the way my brain works. I can't explain why they don't mesh for me. I just noticed that you crossed your legs the other way and I saw it and. I was like I have to say something about this. 

01:01:49 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
It's just I could see myself getting flamed for it in the comments. 

01:01:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't, maybe not, I could probably get flamed for it in the comments. 

01:01:54 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I don't, I don't, maybe not I, I could probably get flamed for it. Yeah, I guess I guess the people who watch this podcast are probably socks and slides guys I'd agree maybe yeah, is is. 

01:02:04 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Are you roasting the people who watch this stuff? Well, no, I wear them. 

01:02:07 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Obviously I like it. I think people who bet competitively like if you're our trailblazer they do what they want. They do what they want, they do what they want. 

01:02:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't put on socks until I have to leave the house. Is that unusual? 

01:02:21 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
My feet get cold, but I don't think that's weird. I get on my girlfriends like that I'm the opposite. 

01:02:25 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I always have socks on as soon as I, as soon as I get up on socks. 

01:02:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm everything I'll clean your house. 

01:02:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, keep your house Well it's not, I don't put on the socks because I have a dog who sheds like crazy, so it would be a nightmare to constantly I like the Uggs. I've seen you wear Uggs before as well. I need to get a pair of those they're like the flip-flop Uggs kind of. 

01:02:48 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
Oh, whatever, I mean, there's a whole variety from indoor to outdoor. I might need to get a pair, maybe two. Honestly, I'm a big Crocs guy, like the Ugg slippers. 

01:02:57 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
You're a Crocs guy, I am now, because when I tore my ACL, I needed a pair of shoes for like inside to wear that had good grip, because I like it was just too taxing on my joints, on my torn ACL my repaired ACL to be walking in socks, so to be walking in socks. So I got Crocs to wear in the house and now that I'm mostly healed I still wear them because that's all. I'm just very used to it and I prefer it now. 

01:03:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, I'm going to be less. I'm going forwards, I'll be less judgmental. You know I've come around. I'm hearing different perspectives now. I find it a little bit unusual, but I can live with it I wear socks and sandals. 

01:03:31 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Podcast. 

01:03:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's whatever I could wear them for a podcast? 

01:03:35 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't know for a podcast. I was leaving my house to do I know yeah, now that I'm thinking, more about it. Those are two different things it's okay it's the crocs. I feel like once I get into them, like I haven't made that jump. I feel like I'd like them too much and be like full on um well, yeah, I'm not wearing them. 

01:03:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You look very comfortable today too, jeff. Let me tell you. 

01:03:57 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, listen, it's a cold. 

01:03:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Monday morning. What is the material of those pants? 

01:04:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
We're just it's a victory Monday. We are comfortable, All right. 

01:04:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Speaking of this will be uncomfortable, I guess, for Chris Farley Betts. This has nothing to do with sports betting. Other than that, farley Betts is in the betting community and I did notice this tweet, which was every day this fucking guy for at least an hour at a time. It's unreal and it's a nine second video of him with the leaf blower. So Farley's looking out his window at a neighbor with a leaf blower going at it for an hour and I really resonated with this, because there's so many things. My home office is where I work and I'm in like the suburbs and I'm home during the day, but there's all sorts of crazy shit that happens in my neighborhood that it's like supposed to be like a quiet street and there'll be stuff like this that goes on during the day while I'm trying to bet and it drives me insane nuts. 

01:05:04 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't know if you got any specifics, jeff I mean, I have specifics, nothing that I care that much about, a bunch of little things. I would say it's an impossible ask because it's almost. Um, I'm gonna go off on a tangent for a moment, I think, but purchasing the house like, oh, there's the house you like, it's for sale, it becomes such a quick process I know where you're going. 

01:05:31
You're not gonna stake out the house thank you I wish you could stake out the house for like two weeks I know, I wish there was a way plus, even over the week there's so many things that you don't realize this corner or how, like when it snows, how it, where it piles up and where the snow flowers will push the snow to. 

01:05:54
Um, I mean, this is just like one of a trillion things. But no, my wife is like freaking out. We've got to put in the offer. We've got to put in the offer now and you make it feel like there's so much pressure, there's no time to waste. You're getting hammered on all sides when I literally want to just be able to stake out the property for a week. 

01:06:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just bought a new house. 

01:06:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm so worried man At nighttime on the weekend in the summer, what are the neighbors like? Are there people throwing parties? You know, a guy moved in, not near me but a couple blocks away where my buddy lives, and this is like an aspiring amateur DJ who moved in. So you hear, the oomph, oomph, oomph is coming and it's like just kill me if that's me. So yeah, the oomph, oomph, oomph is coming and it's like just kill me if that's me. Yes, so yeah, I mean I feel this way about beds. I've done this rant for you too. You go into a bed store. I'm supposed to like just lie into this bed. I'm supposed to replicate me being skeezed out, comfortable watching the game at home in a bed store in front of the saleswoman, like it doesn't work like that yeah, you can't eat, like potato chips on the bed, in the bed, in the sleep country or something like that. 

01:06:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's what I mean. 

01:06:58 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, and it's like okay, so we're just going to go try beds out on this very busy street in this front window, like, yeah, get comfortable. And then I got really high and my wife was really mad at me and she doesn't get mad at me that often for being high, but I'm like this was like you don't get mad at me for being high to go to your parents' house but to try out beds. You're upset when I'm trying to replicate the feeling of at ease and comfort and going to bed. So I don't know where I took Farley's thing. I appreciate how he was feeling here, yeah, but it made me have this thought of like full forensic on when you want to buy a house and there's no way to do it, you could spend more money than you spend on anything in your life and then you find out there's a melon two houses over. 

01:07:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, yeah, you, you have to you as a better I've. So one thing I I have now I have noise canceling headphones that I wear at my desk at all times. It creates another problem altogether, which is when my wife is trying to call up to me like oh, lunch is ready, or whatever, and I'm like just send me a message on WhatsApp or on Telegram or something and I'll come downstairs. But noise-canceling headphones are huge for bettors if you're operating out of your own house, because stuff like this happens all the time. 

01:08:16 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I live my life 98 of the time with noise canceling headphones. That's what's going to be my advice. So, yeah, like that sucks, but just wear noise canceling headphones. It's not that bad. And I totally agree. Like you can get like a tv you buy, you can watch it for like a month. They'll give you a 30-day guaranteed return house biggest purchase of your life. You got to roll the dice. 

01:08:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And it's the dumbest thing, and I am such at times like listen, I wish we were. I don't mean how do I put this. I'm going to say it away. The internet's not going to take as a joke, but I just mean like I can be like fragile in the head at times with like things that mean nothing. Diggs responds to this clip by saying no shit by the way sure, I know, but I, I wouldn't even deny that. 

01:09:01
Yeah, like I, okay, yeah, um, and it's just like I could feel so happy with this purchase. And then, like you, find out something like across the street, how they just like do something all the time, or how they do their lights on the, on a strobe light at christmas, and you're like I'm dead, like I'm dead, what am I supposed to do now? And you don't want to confront like you could I've confronted neighbors before. 

01:09:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I try to do it in a good way. So I have a neighbor in the summer who will cut his grass on saturday morning and I'll like roll over to my phone. It's like 7 am. I'm like dude, what are you doing? I'm like just wait, and, and I've talked to him before, and he's like7 am. I'm like dude, what are you doing? I'm like just wait, and, and I've I've talked to him before and he's like listen, like this is my only free time, or whatever. 

01:09:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And I you know you have to respect that a little bit I do I also live the. 

01:09:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
my backyard, uh, right now borders on an alleyway that has garages for the houses that are in front. Every fucking morning there's this one blaring horn, like in the morning car horn. So one time I heard it I'm like I got to get out of bed and see what the hell's going on here, and it's like one dad who's going to take his kids to work to school every day, but he gets in the car first before them and he waits in there and then he just starts blaring the horn I mean it sounds like a divorced dad who's picking up the kids and he doesn't even want to go to the door. 

01:10:23 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I like I and I've been dreading that conversation. 

01:10:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's not an easy way for me to get to that house either, which sounds really dumb because I have a high fence in the backyard but I see it out my bedroom window and I'm like come on, man, like come out at the same time with your kids, sometimes like the neighbors. Anyways, I don't want to be that. I'm sure I do things up, other than people too. 

01:10:43 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
What we need is a list of previous house owners. 

01:10:47 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So if you ask the current owners, they're not going to tell you anything bad with the house, if you can get a hold of them, which I don't know if it's possible I don't know but we need that, somebody needs to set up now it's almost like you just gotta like you can't do a full stakeout, but maybe you like solicit a little bit on the street. I don't know, no one's gonna bash their own street you can't do nothing. 

01:11:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can't do anything, man. There's nothing you can do. Full stakeout would be the way to go about it, but even then you'd have to like creep onto the property at times you would never get a stakeout. Wouldn't even work, because I need stakeout seasonally yeah, it's true, you need to take out in the summer. You don't know where the snow's gonna. 

01:11:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, when the kids are off school when they're all like there's a whole. 

01:11:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sometimes you just got to take some chances yeah exactly, it just is one of those. 

01:11:37
Sometimes you, you, you know you sell 30 bitcoin to renovate a basement and it blows up in your face. What are you gonna do exactly? You? Just, you just move on with life. 

01:11:44
Uh, we'll end it off here with chuck goldberg, who, um, if anyone is not familiar with chuck goldberg, you may have seen some tweets of his back in the day, when we did tweets that trigger us on circles off here. And chuck is amazing because he created this tiktok account. That, basically, is the short form, short form version of this show. It's like one minute, two minute tiktoks of other tiktokers talking about sports betting and him roasting them. That's basically what happened. So he tweets, somebody tweets at him Chuck, why don't you post bets anymore? He responds I know enough to know. I don't know shit, likely more qualified than 95% of people posting pics, but that doesn't mean much. Sure could say we all knew it was in good fun, but for every 25 of you who knew, there's one person that I might be misleading and I had a moral problem with that, and god, I gotta tell you this was one of the most refreshing tweets I've seen in a long time, because I live the same dilemma as chuck. 

01:12:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He should be on the board of forward progress. It's got to be. It's so tough Because that is like, at its core, what you hope to achieve. Obviously, the internet and running a business can create problems with that sort of morality, but I respect that and in some ways I'd respond to that by saying it's exactly why I told Rob we got got to do this show. Because I can't do a best bet show anymore. Yep, like he can't For moral reasons for you, well, not even moral. I just like I can't phony it, like there's too much good information out there that it just doesn't even. I don't even mean phony it because I like to think I'm being very authentic. Yeah, but I'll do a golf show with my boy, pat Mayo, on Monday. I'll give my opinions, I'll say who I want to bet. If I don't post a card by Wednesday, people are like where are your picks? Where are your picks? And I'm like I honestly don't know anything. I hate my picks. 

01:13:58 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
You know anything, I hate my picks. 

01:13:59 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You know, like you don't want to end up as content for this show. You don't want to be a story for a show like this. No, I don't. I mean posting a losing pick. I don't think makes you. 

01:14:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You gotta go a lot deeper into your losing posting a bunch of losing picks and telling people their locks and they can't lose, like that's a different thing. But like, how do you respond to stuff like that? You just say, like, do not respond. Do say, here are the picks, but I don't think they're good. No, I give my picks. 

01:14:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Listen the fact that it's outright golf. As I've said many times, that's like buying jewelry or a car it depreciates the moment you've driven, made that pick, the moment you've driven it off the lot the hold the books have on that is such a high. It's really an entertainment stake market. It's not like I'm being like these are my head to head, yeah, lock 50, whatever. So, like I've joked, said with you many times personally, there's like a safety net in betting into a market that is, um, like no one expects you really to win anyway, yeah, unless you're picking like the chalk of the board right yeah, no, and I, yeah, I just think there's a great tweet. 

01:14:59 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I don't know chuck goldberg very well, but I think they're to consider the morality of giving picks away, even if they're free is a very real thing and I like this tweet and I like this guy, is it though? 

01:15:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
yeah, because I've like just I've never heard you before. I see I'm not even going to bet these fights tonight. I don't even bet fighting. God damn it, chuck. I guess I'm betting that fight with you. I can admit I'm that. 

01:15:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, it's an entertainment stick. Here's my question, because I agree with Chuck here Do you think that for people who end up watching or listening to this, that this kind of borders on ridiculous to them? And here's what I mean by that. I I give the pizza buffet sunday mornings. I give the same spiel every week. This is not the time to bet nfl or whatever. I get people in the comments are like that, are like picks. I know it's not the right time. What do you like? This and that? You know I get that all day right and at some point you do your due diligence. What am I supposed to? 

01:16:02 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
do now. Well, I'll be honest with you, rob, because I like watching a guy who. It's Sunday morning and I only have two bets on the board and I want five or six bets on the board. I'm just like. I just want to know Rob's. 

01:16:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Rob's lean is better than my opinion so, rob, but it's not really see like this is when you just give me your lean because it's better than my opinion. 

01:16:24 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So I'm just telling you, at times I'm watching that being like just give me your lean rob, well, I think. 

01:16:31 - Kirk Evans (Guest)
I think it's not that giving away picks for free is always wrong. I just more so mean it's not always right and you can do things wrong if you're doing it. So look if you're giving enough background or it's super obvious. I don't have a problem with it and I actually do agree that your bets on Sunday morning NFL probably have less than a typical theoretical hold would say. 

01:16:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Like it's not positive, I'm not gonna beat but but you're right, it's maybe not negative five, it's negative three yeah, yeah so it's a bit better, but I just like the fact that he's thinking about that like it is something to be considered he's even acknowledging yes, like 99.9 percent more know exactly what I'm doing here, but, like me, just knowing one guy out there thinks that I'm like a savant is enough for me to be like. I don't want to do this, yeah. 

01:17:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It used to be. Nowadays on Pizza Buffet, I actually just post my model numbers for every game and I basically give my breakdown of the game, why I think I might be off market or something. But I don't explicitly give out picks anymore because I want people to be able to do with that what they would. And like, the point for me was a couple of years ago when I used to explicitly give out picks but then at the end of the show or like the end of the day, people would DM me and they'd be like oh you know, thank you for thank you for the Cowboys play. And I'd be like oh, you know, thank you for thank you for the cowboys play. 

01:17:57
And I'd be like I didn't, I didn't give out the cowboys. And they're like well, I, I knew you bet it earlier in the week because the way that you were talking about it. So I just wanted to be on the same side as you and I'm like, fuck, like I really gotta watch what I say on these shows, because if I go on and I say, listen, you know, I I have, I'm holding cowboys minus three, but it's got out to three and a half now. If I didn't have that bet. I wouldn't bet it at this price. 

01:18:21 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
People will buy it to the three to be with you. They'll buy it to the three, sure, or they'll just bet the three and a half because they want to cheer on the same thing as me. But they're like I'll eat 20 cents to be on what Rob's on Exactly. And that fucks with you a little bit and you are like and I know from your angle, you're like that's not what I bet, it's not, you're not betting what I bet. 

01:18:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The 20 cents is the reason you bet yes, exactly, in a lot of cases it's really challenging when, when people like, when you know that that's happening, it's it actually does weigh on you. It's tough because you're like, what if this was the other way around? How many times is it the other way around when I said I bet something, I no longer want to bet it and it lost? 

01:19:02 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
When we do the NBA show in the mornings, when Pips has like a lean that he's like thinking he says I may have a play here, we'll see, and then he'll go okay, turns out we don't have a bet here. People in the chat will ask for what the play was. Yeah, they can know. We're like we're not going to tell you because we know a lot of you will bet it and we know it's a bad bet. So we literally cannot tell you what the bet is. 

01:19:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But but but when does the onus go on the person consuming the content? Because if you are out forthright and be like exactly that jacob where, and then you give it out, that onus is now on that you have, and then you give it out. 

01:19:39 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
The onus is now on them. You have to think about the people that are there for the first time, or are there for the second time? If you watch every show, you should trust the creators enough. But if you don't watch every show, you think it's just a show that gives out winning picks. You'll tell something like that probably. 

01:19:53 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And creators will get away with that. And then victory lap it by saying it was like a pizza money bet or like a lot like right, like lunch. You just just bet like a free lunch on it, not like a normal bet or something. So they can dance around the verbiage of um, how? 

01:20:14 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
they do it, which is hard because hard? 

01:20:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
because we've spoken about it before You're doing content. There's a big game. Your model says it's a good line, it's perfect. People still want to bet the game and they're coming to you. 

01:20:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I used to work with a guy who provided some very nice PPH accounts, high limits, that we could bet into before. But he used to ask me every single day repeatedly, like what are your hockey bets? Who are we on this? And that. So eventually just gave him access to, um, my, my real-time numbers a spreadsheet that had the real-time numbers. I told him I'm like listen, just for visibility do this, but like don't double up on bets or anything like that. 

01:20:54
And like a month later he comes back to me he's like I've been betting them right before the the games so that I don't influence the moves, and he's like we're not winning. I'm like have you seen your accounts, man? We're winning. 

01:21:07
You're just betting all the plays where there was either a injury news that went against us or like some sort of market resistance I'm like this is, this is not the time and he just he could not comprehend that and he was and I just want to be on the same side and and it's it really drives me crazy um had to stop working with that guy. Unfortunately, it was just too much to handle. But chuck goldberg great tweet. Really appreciate it. Really appreciate everyone out there who watched and listened again this week. If you're listening in audio form, please rate and review Five Stars. It helps us a lot. If you're watching on YouTube, smash that like button, subscribe here on the Circles Off channel. We got some interviews dropping in the next couple weeks as well that you will want to stay tuned to Some very interesting characters. Definitely stay tuned to that here on Circles Off. Thanks for tuning in everyone. We'll be.