00:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's Circle Back, episode 2. We're reviewing the week that was in gambling Twitter, or X as it's called nowadays Rob Pizzola, jason Cooper, jeff Feinberg, zach Phillips filling in behind the glass on Canadian Thanksgiving today and we're starting it off with, I guess, some hate that was received for last week's debut episode from the shipper Ship, the Justice, very smart, savvy sports better. Previously worked as a sportsbook trader. One of our biggest episodes on this Circles Off channel was an interview we did with the Shipper, but we put out our first episode. Our debut episode, he says, was just trying saying to the fellows you know who I'd really love to hear chime in on gambling topics du jour Jeff Feinberg, Takes by Jay and Jacob Gromenia. This is a dream come true and I got a good laugh out of this. 

01:09
But honestly, the sharp, the sharps in the space I don't think they even have a clue what they want in terms of sports betting content. Like I honestly don't know, because you interview sharps and they're like oh, this was great, do more of that. And then I get messages on the side of like hey, you're like, maybe don't reveal too much when you're talking to this person, and then we have, like, more recreational content. Creators are like I don't want to watch this. The reality is like I'm not going to be able to appease everybody with the content, that we do might as well have some fun with it. Like Like this is an entertainment show. This is not like breaking down lines and things of that nature. This is for pure entertainment and it's supposed to encapsulate all of gambling. Twitter get all sorts of perspectives, so I don't know what am I going to say to the shipper here. 

01:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Trying to make the gatekeepers of gambling Twitter happy is a near impossible task, so it's probably not even worth trying to do. I would just come back at that and say, like this is a show where a couple guys get together, or gals, to make fun or to poke fun or talk about other people's tweets, like it's not a sophisticated show. It's not a sophisticated show. It's not very sophisticated. If you're not satisfied with, like, the level of person who's deciding to come on and make fun of other people's twitter accounts, like I just don't even know what to say. I don't know, even know what the expectation is. This show exists because there's a hole in the marketplace for something like this. I know I want it. I know some of the people I interact with when some of these one-off things happen. We we go back and forth about it in private correspondence. So, hey, instead of another show talking about spreads, rankings, injuries, dumb coaches, we're making fun of dumb tweets, and if that's not smart enough for some people, then I don't even know. 

03:09
It's like going to mcdonald's and complaining to the chef. 

03:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, I agree, I agree, jeff I. But his argument is like well, do I want to hear from a non-sharp who's breaking down the gambling twitter strut and my whole thing is fucking don't watch. Like just don't. If you don't want to hear like no one is forcing in my opinion, listen, I'm a sharp sports bettor. I win at betting on sports. I don't want to watch like all of the best sports bettors out there break. You need personality for one. That's not to say that we don't have sharp content creators that don't have personality, but that's important when you're doing something like this. And also you need different perspectives. I'm sorry, like that's what I think this is all about, because if we're all just agreeing, if it's all sharp sports bettors agreeing with each other on everything, it defeats the purpose of doing ecosystem is huge. 

04:00 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It is huge. It might not be part of like what you think the ecosystem is. Your betting ecosystem might just be really sharp guys, you're out with the squares. You have no time for like content bits, you have no time for like walking bets or a little bit of skin, but the reality is all of it is part of the current gambling ecosystem. You can niche off that ecosystem, but here we're going to try to and hey, I'm sure sometimes I'm going to find myself on that run board, on that run down board. 

04:30 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I would hope so yeah. 

04:31 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Trust me, I don't hit enough. I don't hit that many frozen ropes in the gap. So I'm certain I'm going to come up on there. 

04:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If we had started this show like three months ago, your beef with Rufus and the shit smelling like roses would have been you're absolutely right, that'll happen again. 

04:45 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But to the point, and and Rufus is top of the tier, he's a top tier, sharp top shelf, no doubt about it. But just go watch one of his 15 minute vision set segments that are boring as fuck, where you learn nothing and he tells you about some great minus 2600 bet you might remember. No, I'm not knocking, I am knocking that as a like content. Yeah, now, I'm not knocking, I am knocking that as a like content thing, but I'm not knocking it for how it works for him and his portfolio. And he's very upfront about the risks that he takes and that he does put himself out there, and for that I can't knock him one bit. 

05:19 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I will say, though I just want to apologize to Shipper because we're crushing his dreams today. Zach is in instead of. 

05:24 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Jakeaco. 

05:25 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
So that's like I'm shipper, I'm sorry but also like I think I've commented this on on this before, not on this show, but maybe on previous watch alongs the fact that you like comment on this and you hate this. I like shipper if you're, I'm sure he's a smart enough sports game, but he wins right, like I'm sure that that's the case, that means you're pretty smart, right. But to have such a big ego to like reply to our tweet, give us a massive boost on the tweet of something you don't like because you think people want to hear what you have to say. 

05:50
Yeah, like the ego involved in that is just absurd we're putting air in his tires. 

05:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The point for us is to talk about stuff that's pertinent, that's and that's true, and I will not like someone work. 

06:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
we're coming on here, we're putting ourselves out here by doing a show like this. So I am expecting levels of criticism from all aspects, but it is from, like, the gatekeeper aspect that I will take none of it. I will take none of it because all of these guys, they'll be here every show you release. They'll want to see what's on that run board and either they're going to watch the whole goddamn show, like shipper is, or they're going to pick their favorite two or three things and they're going to watch it long enough for it to register as a view. So I have no doubts. We're putting out the content. There's still the marks in this, and I'm a mark when it comes to everything. Ironically, I'm wearing a Tiger Woods shirt. I'm marking for a new car. I want to buy the car that saved his life. Like I'm a mark, I am a known mark in all aspects of life, but I can also spot a mark too, and all these gatekeepers are are gonna be watching every episode you drop I saw. 

07:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I saw you get into it with matthew trenhale, trench um, who we've had a couple times on circles off, I think, some of the best interviews that we've had on the channel. I felt like that you know the awkward situation of well, I have jeff is my friend and and trench is my friend and they're arguing with each other back and forth here and I was just like that awkward, like I'm going to take a step back and remove myself from this situation, type of thing. 

07:33 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But that's kind of exactly who I'm talking about. Yeah, trench very smart guy yeah, clearly has a system it works from incredibly successful gambler. Yeah, but there's a void in the marketplace for something like this. Trench kind of thinks he wants it, he just wants it done by smarter people. 

07:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, those people aren't doing the show trend also, like they're busy right now 100% and people don't realize they're busy right now I'm available. 

08:00
We definitely did demos of this show that didn't make its way to the channel publicly. They were released to different types of bettors recreational. There was a lot of thought put into how we were going to do this. Some people will like it, some people will hate it, but we'll move on. I did see one amazing response, though I had to shout it out here because it is such a good roast of Shipper. He likes limiting things, so only makes sense that would include interest in content too, and that is a reference to him being a recreational sport. 

08:32 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm a square in points. That limits me, so they don't even know who they're limiting. 

08:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would agree with that. All right. Moving on, plus EV is overrated. This one is a very, very lengthy thread. Could have included a million things on screen. The reality is we got our one guy calling our shot who gets into it with literally everyone in the sharp sports betting community, because his claim is that you do not need to be betting plus EV, or EV plus, as he called it, in order to make money Once Kirk Evans gets a hold of this. Kirk Evans, the ultimate shit disturber on gambling Twitter. I do love the guy, but they're going back and forth. Just because a play is not plus EV doesn't mean it's a bad play. They brainwashed you to sad. There's other tweets in this thread. Or calling our shot. Says he was a stats major in college. He says I'm aware that you can make money sports betting without being a plus ev. Better and only betting based off of finding mispriced lines. This was a huge shit storm, I think, purely because one guy doesn't know what the definition of of plus ev is positive expected value well if you were to explain to him what positive expected value is or plus ev is you just show him that tweet and say what you said, right there 

09:53 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
is plus ev yeah, picking off steel lines that are going to eventually move and you're going to get clv on those things enough to hopefully get rid of the vegan in market. 

09:59 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
That's generally considered plus ev, so like I I. 

10:03 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
Is he just playing dumb? Is he just actually that stupid? It's tough to tell, because sometimes people play up their dumbness right. 

10:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, there's this phenomenon that happens in gambling Twitter. When everyone goes in on one person, it's back against the wall. You defend yourself at all costs, no matter how wrong. Nobody will come out and be like I'm sorry, I was wrong. It doesn't happen, because it's. Everyone gets defensive, but in this particular instance I've went through pretty much every quote, tweet threads. Not a single person even tried to explain to him or like get to the definition of what he thinks a plus EV. That is like clearly that we're comparing apples to oranges here. Something is lost in translation. I don't think this guy actually believes that. You know, getting a plus 100 on a bet that closes minus 150 is not great. I actually do believe that. 

11:00 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
It's just somewhere there's something lost in translation where the definition of what plus ev is is not making sense to this guy and at the same time, like I actually kind of somewhat agree with his take where not everything has to be plus ev, I think that's actually a very take, very fair take to have. But if you're a tout and you have 200 000 followers on twitter, and you're giving out plays that you know are bad. 

11:22
What are you doing? Like what? What is the purpose of that? Like you lost, you lost the plot there. When you do that, I get what you're saying. When not everything. I've played some horrible minus ev bets for wage attainment fun because I wanted to have some fun watching the game. I'm not afraid to admit that. But like I'm not touting it to 200,000 people. That's the difference. And like bridge, like figure it out, bridge that. 

11:43 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean, I spent a lot of time on the internet making outright golf picks, which I would argue are the least EV bets you can make, mm-hmm. So I kind of. But at the same time it goes back to like what Jason's point you have 200,000 followers, it's just. It's reminiscent of like Rovell, where it's like you're when he works for Action Network. You're talking like an expert. You have this, you know banner, as if you work amongst experts, but you don't properly even understand how the bet works or the vocabulary around it or the definitions around the terms you're using, the vocabulary around it or the definitions around the terms you're using. So I would agree I do believe it's a bit of lost in translation here, but when you sell yourself as like a very sharp guy to have any sort of confusion, here is a big indictment. 

12:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This entire thread, or like this situation right here, is a perfect example of gambling twitter at its worst, where people are just arguing with each other, quote tweeting and no one can get to the bottom of what the argument even is like. I don't think anyone really I don't think calling our shot really understands what this argument is all around. Anyways, this happens all the time. I'm sure there'll be more of them on the show. Best fantasy fantasy punishment um. This one came from a, um a fantasy owner that was, um the Will Carly. Here. This is uh, what is this Instagram? 

13:19
yeah, yeah, ig just gotta make sure, just making sure I I it right. Every week my fantasy league places a 12 league parlay which is funded by the previous week's lowest score. Everyone makes one pick. They hit for $20,000 here. I actually think this is kind of cool, honestly. It's a way to like kind of normally you're gonna lose 10 bucks placing this type of parlay, but it's a way to like kind of normally you're going to lose 10 bucks placing this type of parlay, but it's a way to have fun with fantasy and like still have the group, potentially have like this great winning outcome like we had this week. 

13:56 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
Am I dreaming right now? Are you saying fantasy is fun? Is that what you're saying? 

14:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Let's take a step back Okay. I think the little competition, the comps and, by the way, fantasy can be fun. I just don't think it's worth. The time is all that comes down to. 

14:08 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I personally love this idea and I've actually installed it with my group of friends and we're playing it next week in my main, one of my main fantasy leagues. We're definitely going to lose. You just can't be the guy who comes in last place. It's as simple as that, yeah. 

14:21 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So I really like this. Like you guys, it's obvious, and I'm one of these people who honestly cannot I don't know, I'm not here for these like viral, you lose a pool, sort of things, yeah, like I don't know, that doesn't work. If I ran that by my group, just be like I corner holding a sign in a dress. 

14:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, that's his buddies. That's Jason. They're doing busking if they come in last place. 

14:46 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Or the guys that spend 24 hours in Waffle House. 

14:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm opposite of you, Jeff. I actually love that stuff. You wouldn't be involved in that, or are you just seeing it on the internet? Well, listen, if I'm going to be in a pool and I expect other people to do that if they finish last, it would be me like my brother got had to get pied in the face at the, at the, the fantasy draft, the next year because he came in, whatever. 

15:10 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
well, but like stuff like that, I, I don't know, I love this, though, and even if you don't get all your buddies to want to do it, I bet you there's at least like you can get like half your pool, that you do your own little mini thing and maybe even play for more than 10 ahead, but responsibly. I love this, and it just that group chat must have been goddamn fired yesterday. Of course I'm so jealous for those guys and their vibes and like talk about minus EV bets. Like I get together with the boys we make like everyone's got their bets. We usually get there and there's usually like a team parlay yeah, like someone wants to make one and then like, oh shit, if you guys are all doing it for peace of mind, I can't sit there, I'm not going to let you guys win and I'm not going to win anything. 

15:59
I'd rather lose $20, $50, less, more yeah. 

16:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's like when he gives out bets on the forward progress watch-alongs. I bet them. He's a loser. I know he's a long-term loser. Right here I'm just fucking around, but I'm going to bet them anyways because I don't want to hear him. I don't want to hear him cash a 10-1, and I'm there and other people are tailing it as well. 

16:20
There was the fantasy punishment years ago. I can't remember. I think it was who's on the ringer, simmons. I think it was Bill Simmons who talked about it. I could be wrong, but he talked about being in a fantasy pool where whoever wins the pool the next year at the draft gets to kick someone out of the league for a year, so they always have one extra person. So let's say, if it's a 10-team league, they have 11 people that are in the rotation. You show up the next year to the draft and everyone's prepped because they think they're going to draft, but the winner from the previous year says no, no, no, no, you, you're out this season. They got to go. I actually like it would suck if it happened to me, but I know that it's a possibility. I love stupid shit like that. I don't know why. I would totally incorporate that into my pool. I don't know if you guys think that that's too far. 

17:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
If I won I would want to kick out the guy like you, Rob, the guy in my home league who just cares too much. I would kick out the best, no not even the best, the guy that just like cares so much. 

17:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like you are like, that's where the Like the guy who wakes up at 4 am to do the waiver wire and stuff, like the guy that annoys you, like, listen, I'm in the pool, I'm in it for the vibe. 

17:31 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
We're friends. I'm always in our home league, but A we play for enough money. I'm not looking to raise the stakes. 

17:46 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
But I just can't care. I've got too many single games to care about your roster. So what you're telling me is that in 2025, around August, we're going to be starting up a Hammer Fantasy League and then we'll be able to implement this. 

17:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, we'll do it. We'll do it. I'm vindictive. I would kick out the person that I think it would hurt the most. Like if I was in a pool with Johnny, for example. I would kick out, johnny every year. Because I know, johnny, he can't handle that. He wouldn't be able to deal with it. That would be my guy and who wants to kick out like the Pozzola, who doesn't even care. 

18:12 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
Yeah. 

18:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Like you'd be doing almost this guy a favor, who thinks it's beneath him to be playing for a $200 entry or something, so we can't let him off the hook. 

18:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
See, now there's some game theory that comes into play every year. It's like I can't let the people like I've got to maybe start a bench player. 

18:29 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I've got to pretend to care less. 

18:30 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Maybe, I've got to leave a roster spot empty one week. 

18:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Start a guy on bye. Yeah, start a guy on bye, like do stupid shit to keep yourself around in the pool. All right, darnold, comeback player of the year bets. This was a huge talk this week. It started with, I believe, mike Florio, who tweeted it from the Pro Football Talk account. The real problem is people have been betting on Darnold and sportsbooks have been taking their money. If Darnold isn't eligible, the bets should be refunded. Cleve Thier, who's part of our Forward Progress team oh good Lord, you can't be serious with this. 

19:04
There are very differing viewpoints on here, so I just want to clarify that I listened to you Better you Bet when Ken Barkley, lockie Lockerson did this big rundown on this in the offseason, saying the NFL is now guiding the voters towards picking players returning from injury, not picking players that are returning from being crap. Basically, now, this isn't a rule. Voters can vote however they want. So technically, darnold is eligible to win comeback player of the year. The league is just strongly advising that people don't vote for him. What do you do in this? Is it fair that sportsbooks put him, offer him? 

19:46 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yes, because in the summertime I love league minutia, like I do, like when Florio talks about like the nitty-gritty, some behind-the-scenes lawsuits, all that shit, even them. Like they paid off that NFL writer, jim Trotter, this week in a big civil suit. Good payment, good for him. 

20:06
You would know that All sorts of league minutiae I love, so, someone who's into league minutiae, I was very aware of that AP story this summer, as bettors were that they reached a guideline. But let's call this what it is and, as Neil Armstrong, I'm allowed to speak on this is what it is and, as Neil Armstrong, I'm allowed to speak on this. This is simply needed to happen. Because DeMar Hamlin did not win last year, the league and the Associated Press probably wanted to name the freaking award after him. Okay, so they had to send like a reminder that you actually have to overcome something, yeah, okay. That being said, this summer there was still so much gray area. Like a lot of betters, hardcore football fans, we love this award Every offseason and when we talk about it, there is gray area, there's gray area, but this summer the books were still working with that gray area. They don't care that. The AP sent out a tweet that didn't mean anything. 

21:06
So, that gray area is allowed to exist Now. Going forward, I think it will be a question to how they price it, what the off-season board looks like next year. Maybe that could be a difference. But I don't blame, because the books have gotten maybe killed in some instances. I don't want to say killed ever. 

21:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, they've had some liabilities in some instances. 

21:27 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, on these awards in the past. The narrative streets, and they get caught off guard, but there was such gray area here. I don't actually mind the books having a robust marketplace. I will maybe call them out for it next year, though. 

21:40 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
So the only thing is that, like Rob said, sam Burrow can still win the award. Yeah right. So it's like, how can you not offer him, if he still has a chance to win? Agreed, maybe the odds aren't great for him because voters might, but it's also on the better when they're making. 

21:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
When you, when you make a bet, you have to do your due diligence. You don't just get make a bet on an nfl game and then you're like oh, I didn't know that. You know, patrick Mahomes was out for today. 

22:04 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yes and no, because I think the Florio aspect is this is essentially like offering a player who's not even on one of the teams in first touchdown market. 

22:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, but he can win, he won't win. You shouldn't bet Sam Darnold, no, because now it's almost like he is ineligible. 

22:19 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
What Florio is saying is these players who are ineligible shouldn't be there, but he can win it won't happen. 

22:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, if he gets hit by a bus and plays on sunday if sam donald goes for 100 touchdowns this year at least I'm doing extreme example like he can win. 

22:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's not that he's ineligible, and even the thing is when, like our friend at grp wins, we talk about him and betting, darnold, don't even get me started about myself and other people be like george just want you to know there was a clarification sent out that that might make him ineligible. Just be heads up and he's rebuttaled me like well he had an ankle injury last year. 

23:00 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
Yeah, of course. Okay, man, I will throw this out there. I'm willing to say that I I believe there's a chance that sam darnold receives a vote, and if he receives a vote, there is no doubt in my mind that he should not be voted whatsoever. 

23:12 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't think there's any okay, there's a very fair chance. People who vote don't even didn't even get for sure. Yes, the memo for the new criteria. I wouldn't put past that. The voting. 

23:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If I was, if I was running a sportsbook right now, I would honestly email people that bet Darnold already and say we'll void the wager at the end of the year if it doesn't win. As just a marketing tactic. They're well within their right to do that. I think that some sportsbook should do that as like a show of good faith type of thing. It's like listen, if, if he wins, we'll honor the bet. He's not, he's not gonna win, probably not. If he loses, we'll. We'll give you some back credits or we'll refund your thing, like I think that's totally within the realm of possibility. But you, you can't just pull people like he's eligible for the market, people are betting him and the market is the market. If people are betting him, we move lines and things happen of that nature. So I don't know. 

24:07 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I think yeah, I just want to throw one more thing out there the irony of taking the basically implementing this rule last year, because DeMar Hamlin should have won the award and he didn't Shout out to Jeff for that call. 

24:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then also, this year, him actually. I don't want to say having a realistic chance, but like DeMar Hamlin, could win. 

24:25 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
Could have won Comeback Player of the Year this year because didn't really play much last year. Now he's a starter, like there's a chance that he could win and now you're just taking away. 

24:32 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I think that's the irony I actually I actually again I want to say I believe forward progress until there is documented proof. I know a lot of people got onto it later and made documented claims later. If there was a notebook it'd be written in it. Forward Progress was the first audio-visual on the Internet last year to say miss me with that DeMar Hamlin shit. 

24:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now, that being said, I still owe Jeff another round of golf. 

25:02 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Because of that, I've only paid off two of the three that being said to Jason's point and I might just be having fun with the bit I almost believe what he went through is worthy of two years of comeback player eligibility. I don't want to get into this debate or conversation with you. 

25:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, it's very possible. You just want to talk about irony. So we talked about GRP, who we covered on our debut episode last week, the we talked about GRP, who we covered on our debut episode last week, the irony in GRP doing a full video after the Lions smoked the Cowboys. About how if you bet the Cowboys, you need to stop betting. You've lost your mojo. Don't even try to have sex tonight or anything like that. Your mojo is gone. For a guy who's been betting Sam Darnold comeback player of the year, a guy who has a 0% chance to win in the market, imagine the irony in someone doing that. 

25:50 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He told people not to go to work today. If you bet him and listen, don't get me wrong when I get my ass kicked on an NFL Sunday, my dick won't even work anyway. 

26:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, I hear you. 

26:03 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's like one of those where you go to bed and there's a chemical imbalance. That has happened in me. It's like I'm not turning down the sex to watch Sunday Night Football. I'm turning it down because that shit's broken. 

26:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it doesn't work. 

26:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Especially like a Brandon Staley Chargers loss. There's no, there's a bit of a recovery time for it. But shout out to George for essentially telling anyone who pretty much bet a 50-50 NFL point spread that they should be cuckold, Like I mean, that's essentially what he was calling out. He loves to listen, george is. 

26:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's a showman, through and through. He's a showman. He advised taking the panthers week one against the saints. They got destroyed in pretty much the exact same fashion. He didn't film a video about how. I mean, in fairness, he has filmed videos in the past saying he did lose his mojo as well on like so listen, but he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew exactly what he was doing. He knew exactly what he was doing. Chris, olave concussion won't return Sunday. You know what that does to gambling Twitter, especially the newer bettors, recreational audience. Everyone wants Olave voided. We've talked about this before. There was already a bad precedent set by books for voiding these in the first place. From a marketing perspective, I get why they did it, but you set the precedent. People are upset. The thing is like it bothers me so much that people don't realize that they can bet the unders on player props it's just I don't. 

27:43 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't want to turn this into like a societal thing, because that's an area we're not going here on this show, but it just almost speaks to how soft I believe these people are. I just like how coddled they must have been Spoon fan of it. 

28:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I kind of think of Jason in this light, honestly. 

28:07 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You know like truly part of that generation that got a trophy for everything. 

28:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like I just don't understand. We sound like boomers me and you, jeff but I'm with you. 

28:17 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't understand how you can have this view. And sure the books put themselves in a pretzel, because they probably did it for some polarizing crime time game. And now it's a sunday, one o'clock shit that people are trying to hit them up of. I've got no time for this. This is this. I mean. Harassing a player to me is the only thing worse than this. 

28:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, in some cases, they will tweet directly at the player. 

28:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They'll be like or they tweet at the league they think it's rigged. 

28:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They think like people. Only like it happened with Jordan Mason on Thursday Night Football. He got one carry in the second half. He's testing out whether he's injured or not and he comes to the sideline he says I'm done. But why didn't that happen? Like at Tien Nha yesterday? Because it doesn't, because it's not rigged. I'm sure it did Because it's not rigged. This is a very natural situation. Player goes back out for a carry to see if he can play and he can't. So he comes out and people are like, oh, it's fixed this and that they gave him a carry in the second half, so they had to honor the bets on the orders and whatever, and the thing is it's built into. 

29:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm dumb enough to assume it's built into the price of the odd on the under yes, into the price of the odd on the under. 

29:26
Yes, yes, the range of outcomes. It's a very small percent of injury. Yes, the range of outcomes actually has me that I could be one yard away from hitting this and the guy gets banged up and his day is just over. So it's in the range of outcome in the odd in which you're betting. Anyway, I just got no time. I got my yeah. Like you, rob, I'm just maybe an angry old guy and I'm not even a unit shamer. No, I don't care, I'm not a unit shamer. 

29:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Somebody might make a $5 bet and it means something to them. I would just be so embarrassed to hit fire on this. Like. Imagine tagging a sportsbook and firing off a tweet that's like hey, can you void this player? It's old school, it's 100% old school. I'm sure there'll be people watching this who are like this guy's out to lunch, what a boomer. Whatever it's definitely the mentality of I grew up betting through local bookies. I can never imagine showing up to pay the guy and being like hey, by the way, like this guy got hurt, can we take $100 off the total? Like the guy would laugh in my face and that's what should be happening here. But there's so much competition for players nowadays that some books will avoid. 

30:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They pay so much money for acquisition yes, and they don't do enough in the broader picture, be it with bonuses or stuff for retention, that they're scared shitless, that this almost becomes their retention effort is playing to these games, which hurts us all. 

30:57 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
The best part about these tweets, though, is that they come out almost immediately when the player gets hurt. What the fuck are you doing? Go bet, but means the score. 

31:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Exactly, Go bet but means overs. 

31:06 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
When you see this, don't tweet about it. 

31:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Exactly, you're doing the wrong thing. The player gets injured, go bet the backup Anytime. Touchdown, it was overs and stuff like that, instead of complaining to the sportsbooks. One sportsbook, though, that is fair to everyone at all times would be Pinnacle Sportsbook, business for the past 25 years, for a reason. They offer fair limits to everyone, great customer service, very good menu of options as well, and, of course, you're not going to get limited if you bet winners at Pinnacle Sportsbook. So if you're in Canada, check them out. Pinnacle Sportsbook Use code HAMMER on signup. If you do so, it does support us here on the Circles Off channel. You must be 19 plus. Not available in the US. As always, always, please play responsibly. 

31:46
100 hit rate bets might be one of the dumbest things I've ever seen in my entire life. Uh, this comes courtesy of what I mean. Look at the. Look at the. I never saw the twitter handle nerfy algorithm. Um, all right, as far as I understand it, this person is giving out parlays that he calls 100% hit rate, taking statistics from the year so far and just throwing them all together. So Jameer Gibbs has had 40 plus rush yards in every game that he's played so far this year. I'll take him 40 plus rush yards at minus 310,. Throw it into a parlay Rico Dowdle 25 plus rush yards. Throw him in the parlay. Throw it into a parlay Rico Dowdle 25 plus rush yards. Throw him in the parlay. This has to be one of the dumbest things that I've ever seen someone concoct. I've seen dumb things on gambling Twitter. This one is like the galaxy brain meme. 

32:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's like the opposite of um, like me, and you were old enough to remember when, like, like people called Peyton Manning like a choker, a guy who'd never like win a big game. Yeah, it's like it never happened, so it will never happen. Yeah, this is the opposite, but maybe even dumber. 

32:55 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
The funniest part is the hit rate. If you go look at the hit rate for Chris Godwin, it's 12 of 12 games, which means we're going back to last year. Oh, but then cd lamb is nine of nine, so we're only going back to last year up to a certain amount. It's like. It's like okay, 12 of the last 12, he's 12 for 12 but 12 of the last 13, he's 12 for 13. 

33:13
like I will say though this is actually very genius in a mark from a marketing perspective yeah, it is, it sadly is, and the 100 hit rate parlay the stupid 100 plays yeah, they're gonna. Yeah, I believe this is for sure hitting and like I mean I can't imagine that at plus 2221, a five leg parlay with half the guys getting 40 plus 60 plus rushing yards. That doesn't seem like it's a very plus ev move. But hey, if you want to play a minus ev I would rather do not. 

33:39 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Everything has to be plus. 

33:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Ev jason not everything has to be plus EV. Jason, Not everything has to be plus EV. 

33:44 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
We did on last week's show, the Ohio's Tate from Barstool, his quest to like play Super Chalk. Yeah 100 a day or something. I would rather do that 100 times out of 100 than this Play. One of these, for sure. 

33:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, like this is if you want to dumb it down. In its simplest form, this is trend-based betting. Yes, Right, if you want to dumb it down in its simplest form. 

34:08 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
This is trend-based betting right Trend or trend Trend Trend. Okay, sorry, no, that's a fair question. 

34:11 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
It could be both. 

34:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, but it's trend-based betting, right. It's like people who very much nitpick sample size for one and they just say like, oh, this thing has happened on the last four Tuesdays, it's going to happen on the next Tuesday again, and that's just not how things work. Like you're not looking at this. This is not judging the quality of opponent. As an example right in an extreme example, you might Jameer Gibbs might have went up against very easy run defenses but the funniest part about this is just just a reference. 

34:43 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
this past Sunday Travis Etienne had negative on rushing and receiving hits yeah. 

34:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, you're saying he lost. 

34:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He got hurt yeah. 

34:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I don't even care if they won or lost, because I could tell you in the long run that I would like, if I was a bookmaker, I would love to book this action. It's quite literally the dumbest thing. We're going to see more and more of this. I mean, we've already seen a lot of this over time. But like systems, like the systems that come out, the chase systems you ever seen the chase systems? It's a 100% MLB chase system. They just keep martingaling until eventually it wins, when no one can bet anymore. I mean, if you have an unlimited bankroll, that'll work. Yeah, not even. I think you get enough bad streaks for it not to work. But yeah, it's an ugly one. J, yeah, it's an ugly one. 

35:28
Jj gruden. Uh, jj gruden appeared on this channel before, where he went head to head with jeff benson of circus sports. Um, watch it if you haven't watched it already. It was interesting. Jj gruden um, I haven't really been following him for a while saying he's having a good year in the n, but he put out a max play which I assume is just a bigger bet where it lost and a bunch of people started calling him out. He is upset about this. He doesn't want to. He's given out plays almost every day for the last five years. I've killed the NFL for four of those five years. I don't know if I believe that to be true, but uh, that's not the point of this. But um, anyways, he doesn't want to call out his big play bets anymore publicly because he he just doesn't like the criticism that comes with them okay, I could see, and he doesn't sell picks he doesn't sell picks as content creator. 

36:19
Okay, I could see he's related to uh, the gruden family. By the way, in the nfl, this is not an exaggeration, yeah um, no, that's see, that's a good, it's cool. 

36:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Nepotism's always. Yeah, those I mean, on a separate note, those john gruden videos. He's, they're fantastic. Yeah, he's helping edit them or something. They're great. Um, I could see how in his head he's like I don't charge for picks. Yeah, I'm pretty good at this. I should have the equity to not get torched. Yeah, my response to that jj would be like do you know how the internet? 

36:53
works, man yeah you put out something that says max it loses, there's gonna be menchies that say, bro, you're an idiot. Like that is just entry-level internetting 101. If you're not self-aware enough to know that's not how it works. You've been doing this long enough. Four or five years. You've lost big bets before you've got to have thick enough skin to know how that's going to work. So it's like I hate. I don't mean to pick on JJ here, but I'll say he forgot here. Forget how the internet works, because he knows how it works. He's too bright of a guy and his uncle's, his family's, NFL coaches. 

37:40
See what people tweet about coaches. 

37:43 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
You know how the internet works. Yeah, it's like it's honestly crazy because I'm willing to stake money on this. I don't want to say majority of his following, but a large amount of his following probably found out about him as a result of these big plays, losing over the years and gaining traction on Twitter through the algorithm by getting his tweet pushed and just getting his account pushed more. So it's like you're doing it wrong, buddy. You want that interaction, you want that negativity because it boosts you up, but it just comes with the space. 

38:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Absolutely, if you are putting out plays publicly, it is, honestly, in a lot of cases, thankless because when you're, when you're doing well some people will tell you you're doing well, but when you're doing poorly, there's going to be more people who are vocal when you sell picks, you are held to a higher standard absolutely and you are like, open yourself up to way more criticism. That might even venture into a personal territory if you piss people off who are paying you. Yeah, I'm not saying that's right, I'm just saying that how it works. But when you, just because you don't sell pics on the internet on on x, formerly twitter you are still culpable to to what comes with it yes, yes, like that's all. 

38:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Is that not a pet peeve of like? For me, it's a huge pet peeve. When people are like, well, I'm posting this stuff for free, it's like, well, that doesn't make it. If you have a following and you're selling yourself as I've won for the last five years in the nfl and you're posting your records, only when you're winning and stuff like that, people are gonna follow you. Yeah, and when you, when you're winning and stuff like that, people are going to follow you. And when you lose, you're going to get the blame because people want to blame themselves for putting that bet in. That's just reality. 

39:22 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
That's the reality of the world we live in To me, this is the equivalent of Taylor Mathis posting a walking video and cropping it from the neck up. This is part of the internet. You've got to play the game. 

39:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love we were almost at the end here and there was no mention, yeah, no, but hey, of course jason was a minus 1000 favorite to mention taylor. 

39:43 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But he's not wrong. There's levels of like that. Sometimes, when it comes, you got it like use it, that's perfect, build yourself with it, but don't forget how this fucking thing works. Agreed Well. 

39:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think about it from a perspective of our network and the hammer gears towards, I will say, most of our content, towards a sharper audience or rec plus. Most of our content creators not you guys specifically, but on other channels are either semi-pro bettors or pro bettors. That's what makes up most of our network. Hitman, who's a professional bettor better, who I know well, wins every single year gave out picks last week on last year on forward progress best bets, where he went three wins and 16 losses on best bets last year. You know how much that must eat at. Someone who bets for a living is a professional. Not only did he not, he not meant, he embraced it, it was. It became like a running joke of like ah, it's gonna lose it. Like that's the mentality you need to have knish right. Like I'm sure knish doesn't want to give out losing picks on hit the books, but they've lost. For the majority and of you know the time that they've been giving out picks, condition powers, and we own that like we publicly keep the records on bet stamp. There's, for the majority of you know the time that they've been giving out picks Kanishan Powers, and we own that Like we publicly keep the records on BetStamp. There's no like. Oh, like Kanisha isn't coming to me and be like Rob. We're not doing picks on the show anymore because we lost. 

41:07
And some guy left a negative comment on our YouTube Like it's not happening. You have to be able to deal with it If you can't deal with it. I know this might sound a little bit like victim shaming. I don't mean it to be. I also think it's shitty when people just trash you. They're like oh fuck you, you suck at picks, you loser this and that. Like that's a shitty thing to do. At the end of the day, you have to be accountable for placing your own bets as well. 

41:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But you also have to understand. You got to be real and understand what line of okay, but I would bet most of the people also, uh and I'm not defending jj for being real soft yep, but if you like, open the accounts of the people calling you a loser for losing a bet that you post bets regularly, yeah, and are not like horrible at it. You might not be the best, but you're not horrible at it. I actually have no idea how good or bad he is, so I assume he's better than average. 

42:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would not make that assumption. I'm also assuming, but based off the conversation he was on Circles Off with us, I do not consider him to be a winning guy. 

42:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But I assume that person's feed, if you looked at like most of their tweets, are probably just harassing guys who had bad sundays sure, like I imagine, most of their comments are like most of that you check their replies and it's like oh, these guys like just 89 of their tweets are just troll based tweets anyway just mute and move on yeah, if you can't handle it, okay on that note, on that note I know this can be very dangerous and like this whole political blah, blah, blah, you can't handle it, just mute, log off. 

42:37
On that note, and I know this can be very dangerous and like this whole political blah, blah, blah, you don't want to hear other voices, but you're allowed. People, I think, underestimate how much they can curate their own online experience. You can block or mute whoever you want. Now you have to get like pretty personal. For me to block you, yeah, but I can mute. If I just find you annoying, yeah, I might mute you, but people underestimate how much they can curate their online experience yep it's the best, best advice you can give someone if you. 

43:04 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
If you don't like the content, don't watch it. If you're tired of people yelling at you, log off. 

43:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Simple as that yeah, and I would say for the people who do call out jj as well, like you're responsible for your own bets. There might be people who are not betting his stuff and they're just, they're just trolling, but like everyone, yeah, that's expected, mute and move on. Yeah, uh, we'll end it off with Fezzik. We started with Fezzik last week, we'll end with Fezzik this week. Fezzik put out um what I would consider to be maybe like his best tweet ever his Mona Lisa yeah, it was like very surprising that I didn't know he was this in tune with gambling Twitter. 

43:37
He did a swimming bet, I believe, at Caesars Palace. It looks like in the background there. 

43:41
He gave out a look-ahead number or whatever on the NFL, but really embraced the shtick a little bit more. This was Joey Knish of our network was the first to do a quote-unquote swimming bet. A little bit of copyright infringement, I would say, by Fezzik here, but it was pretty funny. Man like I. I laughed when I saw this. I didn't realize he had, like the self-awareness to do something like this, because most of the tweets are like old man yells at cloud type of tweets. 

44:11 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
This was great work credit when credit's due the only thing I want to see is a minus 1000 and up, given from a fool. That's that's what I'm looking for now. 

44:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh well, it's okay. He gave uh minus 370 maryland earlier in the day and uh, they lost that right to northwest. They got smoked, yeah, they got smoked. 

44:30 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I forgot about that. I need to turn on my tweet notifications for fesic just for when he gives out those big plays, just so I can fade him Like I need to. This is something that I need to do at this point. 

44:39 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Maybe that's mean I don't know it is yeah to your point, rob. It's always good when, like you see, they can play like. 

44:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They can play it up. 

44:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They can like interact with the crowd a little bit more. Right, because like Fezzik, I assume he gets a lot of uh, maybe like Rovelli and Rovell light, like a lot of people just uh like to yell at him. Doesn't almost matter what he says, uh, but in a way where like a Rovell could never play around, fezzik, like I it's good to see like okay, good, well, I like it. And also you mentioned Joey, like beautiful Caesars background versus Joey's, you know like His backyard, pool His backyard pool. 

45:26
I liked it all. I liked it all. Good Fezzik looks like he gets to the gym so props to him. 

45:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, that's the thing. Like Fezzik, definitely, he's got a big upper body there. You know, he went out of the way, out of his ways. He's got a clean look. Listen, I'm saying this as a heterosexual here. It doesn't matter what your sexual preferences are. But, kanish, when he did his video, he shaved his chest very clearly but he left like all this shoulder hair and I was like what are you doing here on the side? Very random things that I think about when I watch these videos. But you put it out on the internet. It's there forever. I can't unsee this by the way like Francesco Greco this guy photoshops my head on everything. 

46:03
I don't even know when this first started, but at this point I've kind of had enough. 

46:09 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I think you look. I think you look great in it. I'm not gonna lie, I think it looks great. 

46:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've kind of had enough of these. I'll be honest, I've seen too many of them over the course of the year. But yeah, I don't know. 

46:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Fezzik to me is like Bro, what do you think we could do in the winter? Like there's just got to be, because there's, I'll do curling bets. 

46:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Curling bets or like shoveling. Shoveling you put like a helmet of a team that you're betting against and you just shovel the snow on top of it, you bury it alive, just trash can like taking out the recycling this? Is a fad, though it's going away at some point. 

46:46 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I saw something on Twitter and I wish I have it right now, but someone released a stocking bets which sounds like a great Stocking, Stocking. 

46:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
S-T-A-L-K. Like things like what you do to uh okay well, wait, wait pause I was gonna say I assume it's not. 

47:01 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
He's not actually stalking someone, but he's hiding in a bush and giving out pics while whispering with binoculars. So it's like it's really good, but like I really hope that he's not actually stalking someone. 

47:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That is honestly such a good shtick. That is such a good shtick. 

47:22 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
I can't believe we didn't think of that and stalking back and back, stalking back. 

47:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So absurdly good. We've got to find that guy. We've got to try and get him on our program or something. I love that Credit to that guy. 

47:36 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But do you think is that in like? Clearly that's in response to the like, the walking bets. 

47:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's a rhyme of walking. It's very intentionally done. That's what makes it so great. 

47:46 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
What a great idea that is, oh my God, Like stakeout bets. 

47:50 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
Stakeout. 

47:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, oh, my God. 

47:51 - Jason Cooper (Co-host)
Stakeout stakes a little bit of a podcast maybe stakeout bets you just in the car with the stakeout, with the seat rolled down like a little bit. This is, this is we're gonna have to build out a studio for this. Now, fake minivan like oh, that would be so good tinted windows fake minivan there's like balconies here, get some good binocular shots. Well, I mean, just bust these guys behind us open. 

48:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, bust the windows open back there. Appreciate everyone who tuned in to our second episode of Circle Back. Leave us your comments below. Let us know what you think. You can weigh in on each of these categories as well. If you want us to react to something on next week's show, use hashtag Circle Back on Twitter. You can respond to the tweet. You can quote, tweet it whatever. Hashtag circle back, make sure your sub to your own circles off and, of course, smash that like button down below if you like the content. We'll be back next week. Peace out everyone.