00:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right, it is that time once again to hit the books, part of the Hammer Betting Network. Alongside the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish, producer extraordinaire Zach Phillips, I am merely Brad Powers. In today's episode, a special episode of Hit the Books, we are continuing our conference preview series and we're wrapping up the G5 conferences with the American, which last five, six years has been the best conference typically at the G5 level. But they have lost a lot of their best programs here in recent memory. We'll see which program ends up taking the mantle. Is it a Tulane? Is it a Memphis? Is it a, a utsa? Is it a south florida team? That seems to be on the rise. We'll tell you here in a minute. 

00:47
But first we got some breaking news as far as hit the books. We are very happy and pleased to report that we have a sponsor, a new sponsor, for hit the books. You might have heard of them. It's a sports book. It's one of the top sports books here, um, in the legal sports books here in the united states, that being fan duel. Obviously it's one of the industry leaders, to say the least, has one of the best products and prices. Lots of great colleagues specifically for this show. I'm excited because lots of great college football offerings uh, they're for oftentimes first of the market in college football. I can tell you they were first in the market when it comes to all these win totals that we've been talking on a weekly basis during our Hit the Books weekly shows. 

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03:22 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Last of the G5. And, babe, this might be the D. I know we talked we like the Sun Belt, but this conference might be the deepest and the most talented of the G5 conferences. So we got quite the race in, I think, this conference in terms of who could win it. A lot of teams, I think that I'm a little bullish on, I'm going to be honest with you here. So it could go a number of ways, but this conference is going to be one of the fun ones to see play out, where I think a couple of the others, you know look at the Mountain West with Boise, you look at Conference USA with Liberty. I think this one has, you know, a number of ways it could go at the top with a lot of talent on some of these teams. 

04:05 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I agree with that, and there's a reason why I bet four different teams. As far as conference futures, it is one where I think there's a possibility of being there a decent race, at least compared to the Mountain West and Conference USA, like you mentioned, where it's one team and everybody else. Let's talk at the top, though, where I think most people's power is going to have this team number one in their conference, that being Memphis, who comes in with Seth Hennigan, a quarterback returning for what feels like his 10th year as a starter. He's a guy that started for three years, he stayed at one school and now he's going to make it four for four here. It's something that's very rare in the transfer portal days. It's a Memphis team. That I think is better, even though only 10 returning starters did a really nice job in the portal. Uh, I thought, bringing in some key talent, including Tennessee's leading tackler. Memphis, unlike other a lot of G5 programs, actually has money. Uh, this is in the weeds, but they uh have a $25 million NIL deal with uh, a company called FedEx, which is located in Memphis, tennessee, so, uh, they have some money to work with. It's shown as far as the talent they were able to acquire. 

05:06
The hangup for me is this it's quite simple, because I do like the schedule and the fact that you know you're just looking for pure power ratings. They're going to be favored in probably 11 of their 12 games, if not at least 10 outside of the Florida State game. The thing that worries me and I'll actually give you two I'm not a huge fan of the coach, even though they're coming off a double-digit win season a year ago. He's not one of my favorite G5 coaches. And boy, if we're talking and it seems like you, like a lot of these other contenders, kanish in the conference. They have to play at South Florida, at UTSA, at Tulane arguably the three other best teams in the conference. They've got to play all three on the road. So I think you're getting a little bit of wide-bearing opinions. I've seen as low as 8.5 in the win total. I've seen as high as 9.5. I've got to tell you that's a pretty big swing here. I'm betting over 8.5. I'm definitely leaning under 9.5. 

06:01 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what I? Yeah, you know what I mean. If you took this memphis team and I think if you dropped them in some of the other g5 count, you would have just a runaway favorite. And, as you said, this is a team that not only brought a lot back but went and spent the money to get tennessee's leading tackler, uh elijah herring, south carolina's leading rusher, mario anderson. I mean, they went out and got legitimate power, five players with some of that money and some fcs standouts as well. So I mean it's it had a core and they added to it in a significant way. So I think no doubt they're the most talented team in this conference. 

06:38
As you said, though, ryan silverfield doesn't really I. I mean, this is a Memphis team that their MO has to really not be, either to not show up or to lose some games they shouldn't have, or to have, you know, a horrible defensive performance in a certain game. It's just a staff and a program that, under Silverfield, has been a little Jekyll and Hyde. Now maybe they have, you know, at some point there's been programs over the year where you know you load up a team with so much talent and you just win on the field. We'll see what happens there. Obviously, I think they've got, player to player, the best team in this conference. 

07:19
Do I want to bet them at this short of a price though? No, no, not for me. And the under is a little juicy. On the nine and a half, I have to tell you, um, yeah, I hear you, I, I just don't want to lay that much juice on a nine and a half, but even though they've got some of the you know what, that I don't think you know where, the north alabama and troy and the non-con, I could see them winning 10 games again. I'll say that. So, um, it would be. You know, I would need a flat. If you gave me a flat, nine, I think I'd lean towards the over, as you said, with, uh, the nine and a half, and maybe, you know what, with all that juice on there, maybe it gets back there. But, um, I, I think nine and3 is probably the most likely outcome, with the potential for 10-2. 

08:04 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Zach, I'm going to ask you to bring up a menu that we haven't talked in the other G5 conferences, because I think it's more applicable here, since we like a lot of teams. But sometimes, if you don't like the conference odds, let's slip on over to the playoff board, where you might get a little bit juicier as far as the odds to make the playoff, because likely, I mean, the winner of this conference in most years is going to make the playoff. They're going to be the highest rated g5 representative. So, um, if you want to switch on over to the playoff board, I'd like to look at memphis's uh number there that I that is a number that I have bet um, as far as them to make the playoff, the college football playoff Memphis, there you go, plus 550. Okay, not a great bet. Okay bet, not a great one. I was hoping to see like maybe a seven. 

08:55 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, that's what I was too. I agree, if things go right, though, this is a team, I mean also they've got the schedule to do. I mean they've got an opportunity versus a Florida State team that obviously they'll be a dog against. But if you win that game. 

09:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Don't have to win it if they lose by a touchdown or 10 points and look good, that's a positive. 

09:14 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I think that type of, as you said, if you can get that type of performance and run the table, I think, regardless of what would happen in some of the other g5s, if you're 11 and one in this conference with this schedule, call it 12 and one with the conference title game, um, I think they'd be the favorite to get in the playoff at that point agree. 

09:35 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's talk about some of these other teams we like, particularly in this team, utsa. I really like the coach I can't believe he's still here jeff traylor, who's done a phenomenal job with UTSA. This year's team obviously loses their longtime, all-time leading passer in Frank Harris, who's been banged up. It's not like he's been completely healthy the last few years. So some of his backups have been able to get some experience, including the backup won the bowl game. After they're down a couple touchdowns against. Marshall was able to rally him there. 

10:00
12 returning starters. They've had a couple of guys in trouble with the law for them, so that's a little bit of concern. One of their wide receivers is also a little bit injured. So I love this team and some of the prices early in the summer. As far as those off season markets, I'm not as wild right now about this team, but but I certainly think they deserve to be in the mix here. One trailer is one. Every season he's been deserve to be in the mix here. One Traylor has won every season he's been here and in the weeds. 

10:29
But they got a couple of guys up front, a couple of 300-pounders on the defensive line that you just do not see at this level. Legitimate guys that have experience obviously have the size. And then you look at the schedule and boy, they get Memphis at home. I don't see Tulane on the size. And then you look at the schedule and boy, they get Memphis at home. I don't see Tulane on the schedule. I don't see South Florida on the schedule. It's much weaker strength of schedule even though I know Texas is in that conference but a much weaker strength of schedule than the other contenders in this league. It's one of the main reasons why, when FanDuel posted this at 7.5, I told you to go over. 

11:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yep, yep, agree with that, and you know if I was going to place a future in the top tier of Okay here we go. 

11:16 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I wrote this down. Do you like this one? 

11:19 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, this is the one I'd want Of the top tier. That's not like a long shot. This is the one I would take for the reasons that you're laying out there. I think a lot of you know what two of their harder games at Texas State and at Texas not going to matter here, for the conference future. 

11:36
So you know what that 5-1, I agree with you there, where they and, as you mentioned it, in the trenches they just look different. You see this team lining up. They just look different than a lot of the other teams that they have to go against in this conference. They just have a size factor and a physicality that doesn't and, as you said, does losing Frank Harris scare me, because when they were at their best, it was Frank Harris running around making plays. Yes, but Owen McCown got some experience, um, and look, as you said, look pretty good in the bowl game. Return a ton on defense, um, and a defense that I think could be really good and you know what it kind of sets up nice for them in terms of, uh, you know the games that that they have to play Memphis, you, you know it has to go there, and the rest of the schedule, I think you know, in conference schedules, pretty favorable. So, um, yeah, I think you could see this, a team that you could definitely see in the conference title game. 

12:35 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's do a half unit on five to one. Zach, I have bet a very similar price, and it was you that mentioned this. Uh, I think that you can have one nugget, like each show that I just it sticks with me, and this was a couple years ago. I think it was the conference usa championship game. You must have been watching it because I was seeing the same thing utsa, from a skill, just a skill level, was playing north texas, yeah, and it just looked differently. It looked like they were like the p5 team and the other team was the G5 team. I remember it. I know that was Conference USA, but hey, last I checked, north Texas is in here, florida Atlantic. A lot of those Conference USA teams jumped up to the American with them and they just looked different. That was something that stuck with me. That's why I still do the show. You're good for it, obviously the chat and I like working with Zach, so that one stuck with me. So I agree with you. I think it's still kind of the same re-watching some of their games from last year. They've got some guys that you don't see at this level and boy, that schedule really works out for them. I'm hoping, uh, they stay clear of the law. They clear up some of that and I think it was clark. The wide receiver hopefully, uh, he gets healthy, uh. If so, I think we got an awesome bet there, five to one to win the conference. 

13:47
A couple more teams here that we at least think are contenders in this wide open league south florida you gotta love what, what you saw in year one from them. They went from a team that couldn't win a game to a team that ended up winning a bowl game and blew out Syracuse in year one under Golish and this year's team probably even way better than last year's team, at least on paper. 17 returning starters got as much returning experience as any G5 team in the country. A lot of upside as far as that talent. We like the dual-threat quarterback. There's some talent here that he had already to work with that wasn't being utilized. 

14:20
Don't believe me, pach, fire up the Alabama game from last year. That was actually misleading. That Alabama won 17-3 because Alabama scored a touchdown with 30 seconds left. South Florida's got some talent to work with. Now they have some experience. It's year two. I'm not wild, unlike UTSA, about the schedule, but they do get Memphis at home. They get Miami. At home. They got to play Alabama again. Alabama will probably take them seriously this year, but this is a team that I didn't run in the window to bet over 7.5. My numbers actually have it closer to 7, but if they take what they got from last year and combine that with the experience, this is a team very capable of winning this conference. 

15:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, they had some coaching malpractice for a couple years under Willie Taggart, who I know started strong and kind of fell off, and Jeff Scott, of just what was he doing down there. This is a program that should be competitive in this league because they are in a talent hotbed and when they had, you know, even Charlie Strong, who might have not been the greatest you know coach ever greats a football field, had this team perennially, you know, contending in conferences and a lot of talent on their field and that's the type of program it should be. I think Goldschild will get back to that. I will say he might have set the year two expectations a bit high with how hot he came out of the gate. It's a team again very good year one, obviously seven and six and gave them all they could handle in that. 

15:59
I just don't't you know what I I think year two replicating year one would be, would be, would be another good step in in the right direction. Um, it's not a team that that I have interest in in terms of, you know, conference future. I think they're a little bit of a level below, uh, the top three teams there and I know that you know the unders at the under seven and a half has taken some juice now at. I would say I probably would have leaned that way as well. I know in terms of where it. 

16:29
If you gave me a seven and a half, that was more around 110 I think. I think I'd be there. It's juiced up now so it's past there, but it's one of those, as you said, I just don't think it sets up great in year two here for for him to get to that eight or nine win level. I think being, you know, going seven and five again would be a nice year too, and then maybe they can make the leap next year. Just think it's going to be tough with what Memphis has, what we like in UTSA and a couple of those games that you know. Having a Bama and Miami, it's just going to be a pass all around for me. On USF. 

17:02 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
If you hear my phone going off, there was a key injury that's breaking, so I will let's just say bad injury for Notre Dame today. Oh boy, oh boy. Yeah, I just got like three texts at once for that. It doesn't rhyme with Shiley, it's not Riley Leonard, but it's at the position that helps Riley Leonard and it was already the position that was the biggest weakness. 

17:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
If it was, I'd say we need to stop recording and go. I'm running into the casino. 

17:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'm going to talk for a while and let you get down. I would say week one is a no-go for Notre Dame anymore. So I'll just tell you that Shop around. Uh, there's a no-go for notre dame anymore, uh, so I'll just tell you that shop around for see if you can find some under 10 and a half on that one. That's the best, the advice I can give people right now. 

17:48
Significant injury uh, let's talk. Another team, let's be optimistic and positive here. Uh, another team that there's maybe some different opinion. I was a little surprised. You're a little negative about south florida. I think I'm gonna be the one that's a little negative on this team, not necessarily the hire. I love John Sumrall as a hire. I mean, that's the guy that came in and won immediately at Troy, had two of the better defenses that I've seen at the G5 level in recent memory. At Troy, won back-to-back Sun Belt championships in a tough Sun Belt. And again, a guy that this just tells me that Tulane's serious about football. You would think losing a guy like Willie Fritz, uh-oh, here we go again. 

18:22
Tulane's back to being a team that can barely make a bowl game. If that to hey, this team can contend in year one. I don't know if they're there in year one. I know there's some people that, like them, I'm not as optimistic on Tulane. In fact, I got an under-win total ticket in pocket and there's a couple of individual games where I bet against them in the game of the year market. Nine returning starters we'll see I I just tend to be in most cases, nine times out of ten, a little bit more pessimistic on year one. But uh, some roles already exceeded expectations and proven to win immediately. Maybe that's what people are seeing. What are you seeing when it comes to Tulane? 

19:00 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm actually you know we're going to be in lockstep here. Okay, I agree, same thing Like the coaching hire, but a lot of talent kind of went out the window and I think you got, you know, double-digit transfers on offense and defense, but not one where you know what. Again, it's one of those. I prefer to see the continuity when you're bringing one thing. If he was bringing over a bunch of guys from Troy and you're able to get it, not really what happened, he does bring over both coordinators. But I think you might see I'm with you there a little bit of a dip year one in kind of where Tulane has been. 

19:41
Now, let's's hope I think there were some better numbers out there, as you alluded to, uh, where I think they now sit in seven and a half with some juice of the over. There was definitely some better prices if you were looking to fade Tulane, uh, that have that from long ago. Um, so I wouldn't be a buyer at the seven and a half. But it's not a team that I think is going to compete for the conference title and, as you say, you know, with a couple of the game of the year markets and probably maybe a couple looking for a few early spots to fade them, if you know what I mean. So yeah, I think long-term this program will be just fine. Short-term, not a buyer on them this season. 

20:24 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Agree, and of those four bets that I made conference futures, believe it or not, tulane was not one of them. Under win total did not? I did bet one long shot. We'll get to that team here in a minute, but Tulane I did not bet to win the conference. I'm surprised you agree with me because there's friends of the program that actually like to link quite a bit Some of the books that are out there. They had much higher numbers than I did. 

20:48
I worry about that early schedule when you got a new coach and you're Kansas State, oklahoma, tough, sneaky, tough game against Louisiana, who a lot of people tend to like that team, and then you at South Florida and then UAB. That that's a tough start to the schedule after facing the FCS opponent week one. I will see if they can survive that. That uh run there. I. I think seven and five, eight and four is, for you know, a good first season for some right. Just, I'm not seeing what I'm not seeing here. What he did, he capable, him capable of doing what he did at troy. Uh, here at least in year one, rice is next a team, that's you know. You want to talk about a steady incline. They haven't gotten to the conference champ. We're done with the conference contenders. Uh, in case you don't know, we're done there. Rice is a bowl contender which is still saying something, uh, but I mean, if you exclude 2020, for obvious reasons, they went from three wins to four wins, to five wins to six last year, win totals at six and a half this year. So I actually, you know Bloomberg has done a really nice job rebuilding this program. Tough place and, in case you don't know, they have one of the smallest enrollments in college football. It's actually a tough place to get into academically, but they probably have benefited from the ucfs, the houstons, the cincinnatis of the world leaving the conference. Somebody's got to step up. Last I checked, it's zero. Some game and rice has benefited, I think a little bit here, and also from some coaching continuity. 

22:17
Speaking of continuity, 15 returning starters not an overwhelming schedule. Uh, in fact, I mean Sam Houston State and Texas Southern. To start. I'm not wild about they beat Houston last year and I'm not wild about this year's Houston team. So there's opportunity here and then at Army and Charlotte. I'm not saying that they'll start five and oh, but I wouldn't be stunned if they started four and one, but before the bye week. So I I'm. I haven't bet the win total at six and a half. I think it's appropriately priced, but I fully expect Bryce to be back in a bowl game this year. 

22:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what we talked a little bit about in other previews, about some teams that we were kind of eyeing and wanting to be a buyer on. This was one that man, I was looking at my chops in terms of when the totals were coming out and the conference futures were coming out. When the totals were coming out and the conference futures were coming out, they kind of came out relatively fair. This was one that I was hoping to take a long price on in terms of conference winner and it just didn't. You know, I think 18 to one is trading. Now I'll be honest with you, when I, when I was, I was like, oh, we're going to get rice 40 to one, 50 to one, 60 to one. That just not so much. I can't bet 18-1, especially with some of the other talent that we've already discussed that's, in this league A big-time proponent of that. We got EJ Warner. It was our guy at Temple. 

23:33 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
There you go. 

23:36 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
When he was in the lineup. Temple was a buy. The overs were a buy. They all cashed. When he was out of the lineup they were. Temple was a buy, the overs were a buy, they all cash. When he was out of the lineup, they were an ultimate fade. I love bringing him in um also. I mean they bring back almost everything um and I think upgrade. Well, I mean, listen, I know JT Daniels maybe you're not what depends on what you think him in as far as uh, an upgrade, but I like EJ Warner a lot. I think he could be a better college player uh than Daniels. Was I just, oh god, I, I would have you know what at a flat six or that I would be in. I I can't get, I just cannot get there on six and a half um, and having this team to go to seven, you know, as you said, could start out very well, um, but then they're in the mixer for for some tough games in the last six, unless um. So I don't know, did you, did you have did? 

24:33 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
you, I didn't, I didn't. I saw some other friends of the program were over six and a half. I just, I, my numbers, I mean my power rings, are right at like six and a half and I just man to bet rice to go to seven. I, I'm just, I could see it. There's a lot of toss-up. 

24:49 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I is, yeah, I know even though, yeah no, it was just one. I was expecting a five, five and a half. Was gonna love that, expecting some 50, 60 to one in the conference, was going to bet that just came a lot sharper. And so, unfortunately, you know, credit to the trading room over at this place for you know, putting up for FanDuel, they were on it with this Rice team because I thought there was opportunity there, just couldn't get to it where the numbers are. So, yeah, a team that I think you know, if everything goes right, has that type of potential. But do you do anything with them on week one versus Sam Houston? 

25:28 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
No, are you hearing whispers? 

25:30 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, I tell you. 

25:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
If anything you give me the hook, I'll take Sam Houston. Yeah, you know, as we get closer we'll talk more week one. 

25:39 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Maybe we'll have a head-to-head there for week one. 

25:43 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'll do head-to-head right there. I'm not doing 11 and a half. 

25:48 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Somebody keep that down a little bit, and then we can do it at 10. 

25:54 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We'll talk totals as we get closer. I might be interested in the total there as we get closer. Again, make sure you're watching Hit the Books weekly. We are starting up our two shows a week, starting here in a couple weeks and we'll go every Monday Friday. Obviously, when week one starts we'll do Monday Fridays and game days We'll do a special show. So, again, excited to be talking with the man, the myth, the legend himself, canish three times a week and, obviously, producer extraordinaire Zach Phillips. Let's get to the next team, one that I did take a long future price on, I think, a team really flying under the radar East Carolina. 

26:31
I know a team I don't kind of nobody's talking about. Uh, although, hey, now the wind total is up to six and a half. I might, I must not be the only one that likes this team, considering that they had a, you know, they bought you. Talk about bottom out. They bought him out last year, particularly on offense. This year's team 13 returning stars I kind of like the coach houston. He's the one that originally got that james madison program going. Then he had success. He had back-to-back bowl games here before you know falling some hard times last year. 

27:00
I really like the schedule. I mean, again, this is one of the tougher, uh, you know, schedule, uh, conferences at the g5 level, but they have one of the easiest schedules in the entire country. Um, you know not conference. Uh, you know, app state and liberty are tough, but I can tell you what isn't there? No power. Five teams are on that schedule and even in conference conference play. I don't see Memphis, I you know. Do you see Tulane? No, I don't see Tulane. South Florida on there? No, south Florida is not on there. I mean, they don't play any of that. They play one big boy, utsa, and they get them at home. So I don't want to talk too much on this team, but I got a funny feeling we're going to be talking to this team a lot because I am way higher on them not just in certain aspects, particularly on offense than the market. Let's just say this I bet over five and a half. I would still bet over six and a half. That's how much I like East Carolina this year. 

27:57 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Okay, I didn't know you were that bullish. I will say you know what it's a team, that it's funny because they brought in another Garcia, mason. Garcia was like their everything recruit. He was going to be the guy you know looked incredible in practice and he just wasn't. I mean, he was just you would get him into the game and the guy was just terrible. 

28:21
And so I think you know what, going in, they did bring in Kent Hauser from Michigan State, who didn't have the most illustrious career at Michigan State, but I would say I think he's definitely an upgrade. I mean, towards the end of the year I think they were going Alex Flynn. So they brought in also a different Garcia, jake Garcia from Missouri. So that to me, is along with everything else you mentioned in terms of the continuity and in terms of what they're bringing back in terms of flying under the radar a little bit in the schedule. 

28:53
I think this team has the potential to have a major upgrade at the quarterback position if one of these guys because they brought in I'm pretty sure they brought in all three they brought in Hauser, they brought in Garcia, they brought another guy from Georgia State, so I think I mean they needed to bring in a new like they had to switch it up the quarterback position. They obviously identified that in the transfer portal and to me if one of those guys hits that, then I think you're you could be getting that type of season that you're talking about, because the quarterback play last year was what held this team back almost all season long. And if you can get an upgrade of you know three, four, five, six points to the rating at the, just at the quarterback position alone, then you know you got some going there you know you got something going there. 

29:42 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I was able to watch another guy film their spring. That, you know. Not like any media, but I was able to watch quite a bit of their spring game. Yeah, I liked what I saw, I just put it that way. It was sharp contrast, offensively, uh, compared to what they threw out there last year. Yeah, yeah, we'll be talking east carolina. I can tell you that won't be the last time you hear ecu out of this, uh, beautiful mouth. Uh, for for the 2024 season, let's talk. You know we're talking. You know optimism, uh, let's talk. Pessimistic, because I don't think that my views have changed too much here, even though I think they could go to a bowl game this year. But I don't like the next coach, trent dilfer, I don't like the hire. It went about as what we expected last year. Hold on, we had a head-to-head on this. Yeah, we did. That was one of the very few times I got you on them. 

30:32
What was the number. 

30:35 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Zach would have to find the old sheet. What was the number on their total last year? Five and a half, that's what we bet, I think. Hey, you got to find the old sheet. What was the number on their total last? 

30:40 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
year. Five and a half. Okay, yeah, that's what we bet, I think, hey, you got to remember the winners. They were few and far between last year, so I'll be interested to see your take on this year. All jokes aside, I think this year seems better. The schedule's not overly difficult. 

31:01
I will say this I liked some of the things they did offensively last year. Zeno was, you know, obviously pretty. You know wasn't throwing it, you know, you know, every past 20 years down the field, but I mean completely 74 percent of his passes. That's, you know, top 10 in college football. So he's back, uh, and again, and you know outside of at arkansas, who I'm not wild about arkansas, and at memphis, I mean at south florida. But other than that, I mean where's a lot of the slam dunk losses on the schedule? I don't see that. So I I think they got to make a bowl game this year and I think they should make a bowl game now. I'm not betting over six and a half because, again, I there were still some times where dilfer left a lot to be desired. 

31:40 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I would say, sadly we're not going to have a head-to-heading it because I agree with you, I think the offense and the offense was really, you know, pretty electric in a lot of places last year it just the defense absolutely fell off a cliff and this was a program. That was, you know, when they were in conference titles. They were so known for the defense in that. So, yeah, I agree with you. Also, some of the stuff that's come out about Dilfer and then the program, you have to be concerned that there could be an issue. 

32:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Off the field stuff. 

32:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah an issue. So they did bring in some transfer stuff to try, I think, double-digit guys on defense to try and sure up along with some of the experience they had last year, sure up the defense, but it was bad. There's no other way to say it was bad. I mean, this was week in, week out. The defense was getting absolutely shredded and Zeno's going to have to I mean the offense is going to have to carry this team again. So I think they could be better, even if you give the defense a nice bump and the offense still being very good. But seven and five better, no, thank you. So yeah, to be honest with you, if anything I would lean the other way there, just because I know the schedule is a little friendly. But that's quite the jump there I'm surprised. 

32:55 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah again, if you have to bet it, I would bet under six and a half. Honestly, I'd fire him if he went. 

33:01 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
five and seven, I agree, because this should be an upper-tier program in the AAC Like this is not a, you know, a rice. Like this is a program that has way too much talent locally and history of winning, especially recently before he got there yeah, bill Clark showed that you can win, no matter the circumstances. 

33:25 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You can win and win big immediately there. So, uh, questionable higher I, I still don't get that higher. Uh, another coach in year two. Right, in fact, we're gonna have a bunch of coaches running off here in year two. As far as this conference goes. North texas uh, some positive, some negative. Uh, positive would be more on the opposite side of the ball. Last year. Uh, negative would be one of the worst defenses in the country. On this year man, a lot of roster turnover again. We're talking 50 plus new players out of the roster in year two. That worries me a little bit. What also worries me is they got a new quarterback who you're not a fan of, if I remember, and what hurts him, he's not been quarterback you want with team in the spring. He didn't join the team until the summer. We're talking Chandler Morris only eight returning starters. I have not gotten there yet, but I I'm not going to deep dive too much, but I could only lean under here. On North Texas under five and a half. 

34:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm, I'm totally with you. I am not the long-standing, not chandler moore's guy. Uh, you know, tcu, and they had their run, was it? It was basically, you know, worked out beautiful for them that he got hurt in the first time when they were going to lose to colorado, um, and then the tcu magic, you know, kind of went from there once he went out. I don't see it. You and this is a team, as you said it. Basically they have to be electric on offense, to compete and to win games. And I'm not, I'm not, I'm not there. 

34:51 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
They downgraded a quarterback. Rodgers is better than Morris, in my opinion. 

34:55 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I agree with you, and so it's a. It's a defense that I think is I mean, they were dead last and I think defensive S&P plus last year and so, yeah, you could say maybe the only way to go is up, but I think it's a defense that's still going to be brutal and an offense that's not going to be able to kind of keep up. I'm under on this win total, even at five and a half. I think there's under five and a half plus money now at FanDuel. 

35:25 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, let's go. I am not bet this, I'm gonna bet this. 

35:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Uh, I'm waiting this one the few teams I haven't bet yet. But I'm glad you agree, I'm, yeah, I'm with you because to me, I think I think south alabama week one's a loss. I think texas, texas loss. I think wyoming's a potential loss in the non-conference and there's just a lot of teams, as you're saying, and they go kind of to me. This is a three or four win team. Um, that I would be. I, I would be shocked if they got to six. To be honest with you, to get plus money at under five and a half. 

35:46 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I like that all right, there, you guys go a bet. So we got a few bets in. We got a conference future on utsa, uh, at five to one that we like in north texas under. Well, we might have a few more here in this conference. 

36:00
Another second-year coach, Florida Atlantic, Tom Herman, in his second year. Year one didn't go well as expected. Then kind of a similar situation here A lot of roster turnover yet again in year two, Only seven returning starters for them. I think the difference would be in this one would be have you seen Florida Atlantic's schedule? I mean, you know Michigan State in week one, but after that and I can say UTSA road game, Army in the non-conference, FIU non-conference, Wagner in the non-conference, unbelievably weak schedule. Army is in the conference this year. Connecticut is in the non-conference. I well, I don't like this year's team but I plugged that power rating in even though, look, last year's team was bad and this year's team doesn't have anybody coming back. I downgraded their power rating and even plugging that in, I came to six and a half. So I I know some people love the six and a half under I I can't bet under six and a half under the schedule. In fact I rank the only other schedule I have easier in the entire country is Liberty. 

37:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That's saying something when you're in this conference and I think head and shoulders above Conference USA, yeah, I mean. And even the game where even the game, week one against the Michigan State team. 

37:16 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Would you be stunned if they beat Michigan? 

37:17 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
State. No, because it's a state team that lost one, lost a ton, didn't have that much talent to begin with and lost a lot of it in their four or five of their starters in the spring. So if there's a team that's ripe for an upset week one under a total rebuild in Jonathan Smith, it would be right there. So I agree, I mean, and listen, I, I, from the standpoint of these, I'm not going to call it a panic transfer overhaul, but when you're bringing in that much tan and it's not like the you know the type of you know fcs thing we've talked about, or could you go from somewhere else there, um, it's just one of those that it feels like a lot of movement for a year or two with not coming back. So I agree with you on the downgrade, but just too many layups on the schedule and the easy. And Cam Fancher for Marshall, you know I don't. I like him better than Spencer Petras at Utah's or some of the others, I agree. 

38:21
Some of the other ones we've talked about. So I don't hate it. Um, it's, I mean, six transfers at wide receiver, six a defensive line. Yeah, it's, it's, it's a lot and usually that's a bad sign. Um, but the schedule might be so soft. And herman, you know what I, for all his faults as a uh, you know, from texas, and that I still think he can be a decent offensive coach. So, yeah, I didn't get there on anything in terms of their futures or win total or any of that. 

38:48 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean I want to get to the under. It's just that schedule is so freaking easy. I agree with the fan shirt that was going to clip something. That's funny. I'm not even sure he's gonna start again. I there was another team that I got some clips from the spring game that other kid that's in competition with them. I'd go with them, I. I, I don't like this. I know they brought him in though because I think he'll start. I don't think he's any good. 

39:14
Let's talk army. Who does, in my opinion, and I mistakenly, you know. Good segue, I was talking about non-conference games for Florida Atlantic. I got to get this in my head Army's in a conference. Now the American. 

39:26
They joined, obviously Navy in this conference, first year for Army and a team that has some continuity, as far as the coach has been here a while, I wonder because the strength of schedule is going to be much more difficult. Army was playing a lot of years. A couple of FCS teams and some other like the UMass's of the world, were filled on that schedule. That's no longer the case. Notre Dame's on the schedule, navy's countering as a non-conference game, air Force non-conference game. So their strength of schedule got much tougher. They're in that transition of what do we do on offense because of the new cut block rules. Well, they wanted to go more passing wasn't working for them last year, then they went back to what was their bread and butter. 

40:11
I do like Daly as a quarterback. They got some experience on offense, but they lost a lot of their best players on defense. I sent this one to you, uh early. I I I like the, the original under six and a half. Five and a half is where I I think this should be priced at. But I gotta tell you, yeah, of one team, this co in this season that has a bunch of toss-up games, I think I have like nine of their 12 games priced at a field goal or less. 

40:37 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So they could go either way totally and and, as you said, it looks like they're going. You know what? They tried to go a little outside the box, do some shotgun, do some different things. Didn't work. All indications are it's just going back to basics. We're going triple, we're going to try it and see. You know what? I don't, I would me, I would push the limits If I'm a true, you know, a military academy and say how many cup blocks are they going to call on us? You know, if they there you go. 

41:07
And try, like the old Mark D'Antonio defenses where they just, they just pass interference every play and see how many flags you're going to throw, yeah, so yeah, we're going to run this and see how many you'll throw on us, because what they tried woof, uh, that did not work so well. So to me, I I don't blame them going back to a little bit more physical triple option, they got that, uh, kanye udo, who's a, uh, you know, real physical, rush, five yards of carry type guy. So, yeah, I like him. Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know what I think you know I don't. I I like the idea of the back to basics. 

41:42
Um, this was a, you know for, uh, I forget I forget the old defensive coordinator. He went to unc, but that was when army was uh, you know for, uh, I forget I forget the old defensive coordinator. He went to unc, but that was when army was. Uh, you know really, when they had that defense, yeah, yep, they had defect rolling for a couple years. Don't think it'll be that good this year. 

41:57
Um, and, as you said, unfortunately for army, you know, joining a conference uh means that you know the, the morgan states and the teams that they could handpick to run it up on Friday. They still got Lehigh week one, but the problem is going to be, as you said some of the toss-ups and the fact that they have to play, I think, a more consistent schedule and a schedule that's probably going to give their defense a lot of problems in some areas. So, yeah, I like that. Nobody wants to hear that, uh, you know, but I like the number we got at six and a half. I don't even know, I, I, I wouldn't be an over buyer on five and a half. 

42:37 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I, I would no, I wouldn't be either. So in the weeds a little bit. But uh, you know navy, you know, typically, when one of these option teams come to the conference, I actually like to bet on the option team because you know teams aren't used to playing the option. Well, I mean Navy's in the conference. 

42:53
So they've actually, you know a majority of these teams have already, you know, accustomed to at least one week a year playing the option. Navy took the conference by storm. Originally, first couple years. I think they made the conference championship game year one. I I don't expect army to to have the same uh impact here, uh. And then we see navy. You know, as you're playing legit opponents week in and week out and they're used to playing at least one game against the option each year, you just don't have the same advantage, uh, and they just recruiting wise that they don't get the type of guy that an Air Force can get in. It's more sexy to fly planes instead of, you know, drive Jeeps and be on the front lines. So I do like Army as far as the coaching continuity, but other than that, it's kind of I don't know if this is going to work out long-term for them. 

43:46
I like my service academies, at least Army and Navy being independent. Me, I'm old school. Salsa's next, another second year coach, uh or no. Navy's next? Navy's next, let's talk navy. I skip over the rival there. Navy's next, uh, who has a new offensive coordinator, a guy coming over from mercer, who I like quite a bit. I won some money betting on mercer last couple years. So he's he was the head coach in mercer. He comes on over uh and he's gonna run uh a unique uh. It's gonna be a little bit different. He didn't. He's not gonna run, you know, total triple option. Uh, it's gonna have some wing t principles. So it'll be another team that I'd like to see what this ends up looking like under navy. 

44:19
But I don't like the head coach though, even though I give him credit for making a good hire. At oc, I saw the army navy game and went there in person, and one thing I like about actually going to games is I I focus on like the sidelines. What's the sideline look at? Like uh during games and plays, and they had clock management issues, uh, getting plays in and out. It's just it was discombobulated on that sideline uh, so I don't like the coach. As far as the returning experience, they actually have some 14 returning starters. I think it's a a team better than last year, but, uh, I haven't done anything with the wind tool, in fact, uh, it's another one where if I had to bet it now, I'd bet under five and a half I'm with you, I'm, I'm leery, uh, I, I really don't like the coach in Newberry. 

45:09 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean that was about as bad a year one as you could say, and what Army did was at least under Munkin to try and salvage. Some of the season, was kind of realize what was happening wasn't working. And they get in, they beat Navy in that. I don't know. I don't know if Drew Cronin can come in for Mercer in year one and fix all that in. You know it's interesting because it's a high variance. You know it could come in and improve and you know you get a little bit of a bump. I'm leaning the other way, though I would lean with the under 5.5 too, and I don't think the defense will be anywhere near good enough. I mean they should. You know you start with Bucknell and Temple, but after that you're going through a ring out a little bit. 

45:51 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
There might be only one other game they're favored in Charlotte at home. That's it yeah because you've got six wins. I don't know we might come back to this. Where are the six wins? Two and a0 start. Are they going to get four more? I don't see it. 

46:07 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't see it either because I don't think this offense will be able to keep up with anybody, and they're just going to play some offenses in this conference. I mean, you've got Memphis, you've got UAB, you've got Notre Dame, you've got Rice, who we talked about, then you've got South Florida, tulane, ecu. 

46:21 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's just walk through it 2-0. Let's give them Charlotte, hell. Let's give them Army, even though I don't think either one of those are slam ducks. Hell, it's Navy, they'll offset somebody. There's five. Where is the sixth win? 

46:33 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't know. I don't know. I like it. I'm with you on under 5.5. I just don't see it. 

46:49 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Even though it's juiced under a under five and a half. All right, like it under, love it. We got some bets going here under five and a half on navy and that's he again that's giving them the benefit of the doubt, right right another second year. 

46:57
Coach calsa, uh, ken wilson, uh, who did kevin wilson? I should say uh, who did a decent job. I know he's doing a really good job in recruiting classes, but a little too young for them to make a significant difference. Only eight returning starters for them, that's kind of you know where are they at as a program trying to find themselves. I think they just got to give him some patience. I actually like I think he's a good offensive mind. It's, you know, not a recruiting hotbed, even though he's been able to recruit there. There's some things that I liked. Last year I was watching Tulsa-East Carolina game. I thought both teams were fighting tooth and nail in the finale. The game didn't mean anything for either one, but I liked the fight in both teams. This one, my numbers are calling for over four and a half. I just haven't gotten there yet. 

47:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm with you. I just for this to really function. I like Kevin Wilson and you know some of the things that he's done in his career and it's almost like he reminds me of a little early, you know, philip Montgomery era. You know when Montgomery had it kind of rolling before it fell apart there at the end. I just don't like who they have at the quarterback position. They brought in Cooper Legas from Utah State. Don't like him. 

48:07 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
They've got Cardell Williams from Kirk Francis last year Francis' kid's all right, but he's not going to wow you physically, I agree with you. 

48:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I just don't think he has the requisite and, as you said, he's got the recruiting coming in, so it feels like it's going to go. It feels like they win a little bit more. We're going coming in, so it feels like it's gonna go. They feels like they win a little bit more. We're gonna try and build the program, then transfer everybody in, uh, a little bit, which, long term, as long as they're patient, I think should be okay. I just don't see it this year. I it's. He's the type of guy you have to have a quarterback in this system to work, because I don't think the defense will, you know, be be anywhere near good enough, especially with some of the offenses that they're going to play in this year, to kind of really be competitive. So I'm not there with you either. I know, as you said, just from a numbers standpoint, the four and a half might be a little low, but I don't love this. 

48:56 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
They don't have a lot of slam dunk wins outside of Northwestern State. 

48:59 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, and I don't think the team itself is going to have the offensive identity to be able to run away from some of these teams. So, yeah, it's probably a pass for me. I can't get there on this over. I don't. I don't see it. Next year would be the you can, maybe a make or break year, as you're talking about getting some in. I'm surprised they didn't get a little bit more aggressive in trying to get people in, especially on offense, for this year, because what I see on the roster right now just just isn't enough tell me if you heard this before. 

49:29 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
A second year coach uh is our next team, charlotte bitpoji uh, who you know was part of that michigan machine for a couple years there before heading over to charlotte last year. I like him, he's quite a character, to say the least. Uh, another team tough to to get a feel for him transfer portal heavy. Unlike uh Tulsa, they've hit the portal hard each of the last couple years. They get the Florida kid uh Brown at quarterback. We'll see. It's certainly an upgrade over what they had. Yeah, they had one kid that couldn't throw and then they had another kid a walk on uh Trexler, ivy kid uh. So they'll get an upgraded quarterback. 

50:05
The thing I don't like schedule man I outside of gardner webb, I'm not sure that they're favored in any other game. So I like biff poji I. I like these brought in a power, a lot of power, five kids I just if they hit, then okay. Then then we can look back on it and say, yeah, why didn't I bet over three and a half by? I just I'm not not there. I just again when I got a team that's not used to winning. I look at the schedule and I only got one win on it. Where are the three other wins? Right now, I don't see them. 

50:34 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean again Biff Poe. I will say he was maybe the biggest. There was a great story on the mini-athletic about turning around the culture at Michigan under Harbaugh. I don't think the Michigan, I don't think Harbaugh survives the downslope he had at Michigan without Biff Pogge on the staff. He might've been his most important hire ever and so I do think he can make this work at Charlotte. 

51:01
I'm with you, though I mean it was so bad year one and I know he had kind of one cycle of transfer portal bringing in a lot of you know x power five guys. He did it again. Oh, they, just they, just you know it was so bad last year quarterback. Maybe max brown can give them a leap. I, just as you're saying, just on the numbers, they're probably a dog in you know, in in 10 or 11 of these games. 

51:26
So to bet over 3.5, juiced, yeah, I can't get that. To me it doesn't compute. So maybe the ceiling of this team is just going to be better and they're able to get there and Biff kind of wows and I know they went 3-9 last year. But I don't, as you said, it's going to be rough for them to get to four wins just based off what they're having to go up against. So I can't get there, but I'll be rooting for him. I think he's a good coach and can get this program eventually over the hump, just numerically. I don't see it from where it's at now. Yeah, interesting fellow, I mean a story, I don't see it from where it's at now. 

52:05 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, interesting fellow. I mean his story. I agree with you. I'm glad you brought up that athletic story If you just want general football stories, if you're a football fan or even a life fan, you know what he did in the inner cities in Baltimore. 

52:16
I remember watching him. He was ESPN, had a couple of his games on Friday nights, hit him with the sleeves off and stuff. It was a good read. So look that story up. Uh, I will say another. I know it's not going to move the needle as far as. Oh, I can't wait to watch this game, I man. 

52:33
I think week one against James Madison I'm going to learn a lot about both of those teams. Very good, because there's a lot of uncertainty about both. Even though I love Chesney, I mean they lost that entire roster. So I'm going to learn a lot about whether I'm right about Charlotte or wrong. It seems the same with James Madison. I think I'm going to know in week one with that game. I bet a little Charlotte in that game when there was a, when they were getting doubles there. So it's not like I'm way down on Charlotte. Last team I'm really down on. 

53:01
We'll wrap this up, unfortunately with a negative tempo. I'm not big on laying huge juice. I told you that's the one to bet when it was 3.5. It's moved to full win. You heard me on different shows talk about the importance of a half win or a win when the total is so low. I'm here to tell you that under 2.5 is still good with Temple. As far as I'm concerned, I'm at least a five point underdog in every game. I don't like anything that they got coming back warner we already mentioned earlier in this uh preview is off the rice. Then they're only redeeming player in my opinion. But they got a defensive end. That's pretty good. But outside of that seven returning starters, a coach that's not only in the hot seat but this is it could be a lame duck situation, especially when you look at who they start with I just don't see any redeeming factors for this team. Honestly, I could see an 0-12 type of season for Temple this year. 

53:56 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I can't point to one thing in terms of the direction of the program. What they brought back, I mean their two best players, warner and their tackle, both left. They went heavy Juco route which in this day and age I don't think is a fix anymore. I don't think this. I mean I would have to worry about where this program is financially Because they went from a disastrous higher end Rod Carey where everything just fell apart, to Stan Drayton, which looks miserable. I'm with you. I still think. I know we bet some under three and a half. I still think under two and a half is good. I don't know where this team gets three wins at and I'm not saying, yeah, are we doing best? 

54:38 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
bet I'm okay with under two and a half. I'm with you. 

54:43 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Under two and a half best bet. I mean maybe give them, I don't know a split between Army and Navy. If I give them Utah. 

54:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That's tough to do, man, even there, even there. 

54:53 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I just I don't know. I don't know where the wins are going to come. This team was only competitive in games last year when Warner was throwing for like 400 yards and looking like one of the better G5 quarterback and he's gone. When they had no Warner, this team was getting blasted. The defense had fallen off a cliff. They don't have a quarterback like and they don't have. They did not replace Warner with any functional quarterback and their best player in offense, their left tackle, transferred out. So who's left? And I don't think they had a receiver that left to. I think it was pretty good name this gave me last year, but I don't see where it's at with this program. I think Drayton's gone and it's it's a one in 11 type of year. 

55:37 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And we even seen guys like myself laying it in week one against them, and guys I don't like laying points. When I fell I laid 37 and a half 39 and a half, it don't matter against Oklahoma. Oklahoma probably beat him by 50 60 points. So yeah, uh, this could be the worst team in college football this year if it wasn't for, you know, uncertainty with Kennesaw State coming over in that, uh, I, I would be slamming my fist on the table. This is the worst team in college football this year. I might have the worst record, because, man, man, I just don't see it. So under two and a half, there we go. So under two and a half Temple we got that in pocket. Wow, a lot of unders. I like it. That's right. I know where we're going. Under five and a half Navy. Under five and a half North Texas. For those that like to bet a little to win a lot five 5-1 UTSA Conference future. Am I missing something? Those? 

56:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
are four. That's a pretty good show. Yeah, I agree, I think we got a couple. And again, just because we bet we might have not gotten to the over on some of those teams, but there's a top half of the teams that we were pretty bullish on. I know you with East Carolina, I'm even bullish on Rice. You've got to bet the numbers, not the. You know, just because and I think it's a great example of what kind of what we preach on the program of you might have been real bullish on East Carolina. I might have been real bullish on Rice At the numbers that we're looking at currently. You don't just make a bet to make a bet, even if you're bullish on a team. There were numbers maybe at some time ago that those were bettable, just not where they're at currently. 

57:11 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, but those unders I think that we gave out. I think those are more good. And if, again, we still gave out four bets that we like and if you want more bets, obviously you can tune in to us. Monday, that's really enough in the week to get bets. Friday we're going to give you some late week backs. Keep in mind different derivative markets, like first halves and whatnot, open up. We're going to give you some late week bets. Keep in mind different derivative markets like first halves and whatnot, open up. Plus, we're going to have some fun with some parlays that we particularly like. That'll have some correlation. And then Saturdays, we're going to do some different stuff with games that are up as far as second halves and whatnot that we're seeing. So there will be stuff that it won't be always. Oh, I got it at this number, I got it at that number. We will be doing stuff off the fly with the weekly show sponsored by FanDuel That'll wrap up this G5 series of previewing the upcoming 2024 season. 

57:53
As far as the American goes, for the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish. For producer extraordinaire, zach Phillips, I'm merely Brad Powers. You just watched Hit the Books, part of the Hammer Betting Network.