00:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right, let's do it. Let's hit the books. Part of the Hammer Betting Network. Alongside the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Kanish, producer extraordinaire, zach Phillips, I'm merely Brad Powers. 

00:20
Today we are talking one of the big two conferences. Of course it's the big 10, or is it the Big 15? Or 18, 16, 20? I'm not sure. I lost track how many teams are in this conference, but it is the Big Ten Conference. Obviously, we're talking Ohio State, we're talking Michigan, we're talking the newbies, oregon, usc, washington and obviously UCLA to a lesser extent. We'll break all that down and more. But before we get into that, let me remind everybody, in case this is the first conference preview that you've seen for the upcoming season we are proud to announce that we have a new sponsor. You might have heard of them. They're called FanDuel Sportsbook. Fanduel Sportsbook and obviously condition myself super excited to have them as a partner. 

01:08
Obviously one of the industry leaders, specifically college football. One of the best products and pricings. Lots of college football offerings if you've been following and watching along all off season. We've talked about fan duel since they started putting win totals up in february. Great live menu as far as college football goes, first to market. Often for college football, whether it's sides, totals on a weekly basis or the the off season. We love that. Uh, lots of fun, different types of bets, whether you're betting on awards or whatnot easy to use, fast payouts. 

01:30
Now I will say week zero isn't until the end of next week. You still got about 10 days in between. And if you're looking to fill the void as far as summer goes, we still got major league baseball. Last I checked, that's the only thing getting us through the dog days of summer. And FanDuel is hooking up all their customers right now with a booster bonus daily. That's right, there's something for everybody every day. For the rest of summer, you can take your booster bonus and bet on everything Major League Baseball related, whether home runs, strikeouts and even the final score. Plus, with FanDuel, you can combine your bets in a live same game, parlay for a shot and an even bigger payout. So head on over to FanDuelcom. Start racking up some runs in the sun. 

02:07
Disclaimer you must be 21 plus 18 plus in DC and present in select states. Optional requirement wage requirements apply. Bonuses awarded as non-withdrawable bonuses, bets or profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including bonus expiration. See terms and conditions at FanDuelcom Sportsbookbook gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Or visit rg-helpcom in colorado dc, illinois, iowa, kansas, in affiliation with kansas star casino. Kentucky, louisiana, michigan, new jersey, north carolina, ohio, pennsylvania, tennessee, vermont, virginia, wyoming. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text next step, 2-533-42. In arizona, 1-888-789-7777, or visit ccpgorg slash chat in connecticut, 1-800-9 with it in indiana. Visit mdgamblinghelporg in maryland or visit 1-800-GAMBLERnet in west virginia. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline maorg. Or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24 7 support in massachusetts, or call 1-877-8. Hope new york or text hope new york in new y. You've been waiting for this one Kanish. This is your baby Dow. I grew up in Big Ten country. Let's not beat around the bush here. Let's break some of these teams down. I mean because we got 18 of them to break down now. 

03:15 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I was going to say the Big Ten, nothing like a good old UCLA-Oregon Big Ten matchup to kick it off. But yeah, home of the national champs, baby. And I mean, some people think there's a back-to-back potential. I might be too humble to think they're going back-to-back, but bringing a lot of talent back, we'll get to them. 

03:38 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know about that, to say the least, coast-to-coast. Now we're in New Jersey to LA of you know right, smack dab, kind of in the middle of the coast, coast. Let's start off. So obviously, when these previews, we're just going with my power ratings, we're starting from the bottom, we're going to the top. At the bottom is a first year coach that I know you and I like quite a bit. We love the higher, just don't love the team for this upcoming season. Actually, michigan State is at the bottom of my power ratings for the preseason. Jonathan Smith said again one of my favorite coaches out there. I think eventually he'll figure it out. He's just going to take him a couple years to do so. 

04:13
This is a Michigan State program that's obviously bottomed out the last few years under Mel Tucker and then the interim last year. Schedule boy. I mean after the start, after the Prairie View and Boston College games, I mean you're looking at Ohio State, at Oregon, iowa, at Michigan. I mean that gets tough for a team that's got some depth issues. Now I am hearing I've read some of the fall camp reports. They love Aiden Childs. I know that's a guy that you and I both like, but you're going to have to give him time as well. We're pretty pessimistic on Michigan State. In fact, long-time viewers of the show if you're following along March, april, may took under five and a half. Go through the past shows we gave out under five and a half. It's safe to say that's no longer available, but we took that original position, kanish. 

04:59 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, I think that was one of our favorite of the portfolio that we were talking about in the summer, one of the favorite positions there. And I agree and this is not to be a hater I like Johnson's pistol, I like the hire. I think you know, in terms of losing Mel Tucker in that type of fashion, that they couldn't have done much better than getting a program rebuild guy, a guy who took Oregon State from the dumpster uh, made them a pac-12 competitor every year. But I mean, this roster was um, it just it fell apart last year. They do bring in again eating chiles, kind of a year zero here. I hope they don't get him killed because I think the offensive line is going to be quite porous. 

05:41
They lost and to say almost that, like Smith, lost a lot of their like four or five starters in the spring to, yeah, you know, like that, that to me was like that. I didn't think they were going to have a great year and then a team that couldn't afford to lose any talent lost four or five guys. He didn't really, you know, go crazy with the portal either, which I don't blame him. To me that's the. It isn't like a we have to win this year turnaround type thing I would be, you know, build with his guys. Um although from this is from some local, we'll call them knishi moles this program's not spending a lot of money right now. Um, the the word was kind of we're going to see what Smith can do and then maybe the funds will come back. 

06:26 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
But part of the reason they lost. Oh no, that's not the way. 

06:28 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I know, I agree that's not the way. That's part of the reason they lost some of those guys is because there's not a lot of NIL going around right now. So I think this could be a real. I mean, they have that four-game stretch where I mean I was talking to one of my state buddies like how many games, how many points do they score between the Ohio State, oregon, iowa, michigan stretch? That's as hard a four game stretch as anybody in the country has. Um, I yeah, I mean this team is not getting the six. We obviously do. You know we're on the under five. I'd be surprised if they got to five. Um, I think five and seven would be a a great year one for Smith, and four and eight, three and nine would not surprise me. 

07:09 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, you mentioned a couple of those key transfers post-spring and that's when we took advantage of the Michigan State win total. Zach's telling me May 6th is when we gave it out. I think that was our first show post-spring. Keep in mind, the portal closed what April 30th and we're just reacting to that. The market. That's new as far as that, that portal schedule and just telling you in the future you might want to watch them shows post uh portal, because the market doesn't react to a lot of those portal news, especially when it's not quarterback. And it's like a position group, a key position group, like the defensive line, that where michigan state got decimated, there let's talk, uh, a first year coach. Next up indiana, tough tina power, right, because it's basically an entirely new team. It's basically james madison from last season I mean they imported about half the roster, it feels like, from james madison plus another a lot of other key guys. It's basically uh, to tell you it's, it's a really good group of like a group of five all-star roster curtis work at quarterback. A lot of those james madison kids, uh. So we're gonna see what a group of five all-star roster Curtis work at quarterback. A lot of those James Madison kids. So we're going to see what a group of five all-star bunch can do in the new big 10 schedules Not overly difficult. 

08:12
I mean. Yes, ohio state, michigan are on there, but you know, penn state, no Oregon, and outside of those two games I mean there's a lot of winnable games that could go either way. It was a team that I again Fando, did a good job, had these win totals posted in the Big Ten in February. At that time I was thinking how in the hell does Indiana get the ball eligibility with this roster, especially coming off a couple of I mean we're talking two, three win type of seasons? So my original position was under five and a half. I no longer like that position. Not that I'm running to bet, you know the over right now, but I just I think five and a half is about right. I will say there's some sixes out there that I would lean under because I think seven's pushing the limit here. But again, it's just a. It's a tough team to power right Cause it's new and they got a lot of coin flip games that could go either way, starting with, I think, week three against UCLA. 

09:03 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That'll be a big game for both first year coaches yeah, totally, and I think you know what, if you want to make the the pessimistic case, we both love Curtis work. Part of the reason we had a bunch of Ohio positions last year was because of Cordes. He doesn't have the greatest clean bill of health, so that's one of those things that really could derail the season. I like what he's done. You know, again, he wasn't going to get you're not going to get a ton of, you know, p5 talent to come in, so bring a lot. He brought a lot of guys with you. 

09:32
I think that formula has worked at a number of programs coming over from James Madison, some G5 talent and supposedly you know a program that's spending some money a little bit here over at indiana. So, hey, they were able to retain. Uh, I know for a fact that michigan went hard in the paint after donovan mccauley. Uh, they wanted him, they wanted a, a bigger receiver to get on the outside. Indiana was able to keep him and, um, I'm sure they didn't keep him because you know he, he had school pride. They kept him because they gave him a nice paycheck. So, uh, yeah, they got a little bit of returning talent. They did lose their, I think just yesterday, maybe the day before their right guard that had started a lot of games for them out for the year, name escaping me at the moment. 

10:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So not the left tackle I think the left tackle was really good. 

10:22 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, so they've got some things. I agree with you, though this would be one on six would just have to be an under. Um, yeah, you know, I think if you got into this team when, in the middle of it, when there were some four and a half, some five, I think you got a good price. I agree, I'm not dying to play under, you know, at uh, either way. On five and a half six, though, would be an underplay, even with a little bit of juice. 

10:45 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's talk next up. We're going to fly through some of these bottom teams just because this is the biggest conference in college football. We love you guys, but I'm sure that you don't want to listen to us for two and a half hours. Purdue is next up. Second-year coach Walters didn't have a great year one A little bit of hit and miss as far as performance and consistency. 

11:05
Bit hit and miss as far as performance and consistency. Um, this year's team should be a little bit better. Uh, the problem schedule is really difficult, especially when you got two nine conference games notre dame and at oregon state and you are playing oregon, you are playing ohio state, you're playing penn state and conference. So I mean the win total is among the lowest out of all the big ten teams and it's probably deserving. Uh, even though I I like some of the additions that made. He got a couple of kids from Georgia that I think will contribute. They could be a team that maybe I bet on on an individual game basis, starting with that second game against Notre Dame, if they're getting, you know, I mean that's an in-state game where, if they're getting way more than two touchdowns, close to three touchdowns, you know I might bet Purdue is a sneaky dog in some of them games, but four and a half seems about right to me, with the juice to the under Very heavy there. 

11:52 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm with you. You know what I liked Ryan Walters. I kind of liked him a little bit better as a defensive coordinator as opposed to a guy who's going to revamp a program. It's a tough job now in this conference. This is a bottom-tier job that doesn't have a ton of, you know, portal influence and NIL money. So and they lost I mean our guy if you've listened to the books all summer, our guy Deion Burks was, you know, massive for them. Think he can be huge for Oklahoma. 

12:20 - Zack Phillips (Ad)
That's a tough loss for a program that doesn't have really any superstars. 

12:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So they got Card back, they got Mockney back, they got Reggie Love from Illinois. I think that the offense would be okay, maybe a little step forward there. Defense just doesn't have guys. They did a little bit in the transfer portal but just not a lot of elite talent on that defense and, as you said, a schedule that's not super friendly. So yeah, to me this is. This is not not. I didn't do anything on the wind total either, but it would be a lean to the under if I was going either way yeah, four and a half, it's just. 

12:55 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You know the juice is minus nearly what is it? 178 at FanDuel there. So it's just a little pricey at this point, uh, but certainly a lean towards the under there. Yeah, I mean they lost their dude Scorton off the edge on that defense, that safety kid number 31,. Thienemann is okay, but again not difference makers. Let's talk. 

13:13
Illinois Coach said I don't think either one of us is particularly fond of and he's not going to, while you X's and O's, bielema and Illinois Off of. You know obviously a disappointing 5-7 campaign. Considering how good they were two years prior with Walters as a defense corner, it looks like they missed him last year. You know you mentioned Purdue, lack of defensive guys on that edge. Illinois lost their dude on defense, that being Newton. If you didn't think he was important, go re-watch the Wisconsin game. Where Wisconsin can't move the football game, newton gets ejected at the end of the third quarter. Wisconsin goes down the field twice, scores and ends up covering the point spread in that one late in the final second. So that's a big loss for Illinois. I, you know schedules a little bit. You know I don't see a lot of layups outside of Eastern Illinois and Central Michigan. Is that really a layup? I'm not sure. But, man, after that, again Michigan, penn State, oregon. This is one where I'm on under five and a half. I'm interested to see where you're at here. 

14:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, I'm with you and that was actually going to be. We don't do a lot of like pre-show, we just kind of do it organic. I pre-show, we just kind of do it organic. I agree this was going to be my first actual like play. Here would be let's do it. 

14:25 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That's official. Under five and a half. I bet that that's look a lot of the stuff's juiced out at this point. That's not. That's very reasonable minus 128. So I I made a similar bet this week on under five and a half, illinois I'm with you and you know what I this is. 

14:40 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I think, burt, I think you just missed the window of where, as you said, two years ago, they had a. You would not believe you. Go back and look at some of the guys. They had drafted the NFL talent that Lovie Smith had recruited to Illinois. He wasn't a good coach, he couldn't do anything on game days. He recruited some players and they developed some guys. And this is a roster two years ago that should have played for the Big Ten title. That year burt blew it. 

15:06
They regressed a little bit this year and, as you said, they lose a couple more nfl guys, uh, off last year's roster, a couple guys in the transfer portal and what are you left with? I don't love luke altmeyer, uh I. You know the kind of that big 10 mess. We're gonna man ball that. You know that whole thing, that I think they had a little bit of an advantage. You know, in the Big Ten West, for a minute, with what Burt tried to come in and do To me, that's all gone. The offensive line is regret. I don't see it. I don't see a position group on this team that I'm like. Yes, I like that, and so some of these you know Big Ten coin flippy games where you know they're gonna lose the penn state, you know they're gonna lose the michigan. Oh, we lose oregon, but like at nebraska I don't like them there. 

15:48 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
They're an underdog, they're at rutgers. 

15:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Don't like them there. Uh, I mean, even if I give them, you know, eastern illinois, central michigan, minnesota they're gonna lose to kansas probably, even though that's a home game oh, I agree, I totally agree. So, yeah, I don't see six wins here. I think this is one of those programs that's in the wrong direction. We talked about a couple of resets. This one is trending downward and if they have a real bad year, I don't know. The Burr shelf life of this is going in the wrong direction because he's not really recruiting talent either. 

16:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm glad you brought up a couple years ago, remember they were sitting at 7-1, and they lost not one but two games. I think after that as a double-digit favorite. Yeah, like Michigan State and somebody else, they just win one of them games they play for the Big Ten Championship. Not that they would have beaten Michigan, but it still would have been a nice feather in Bielema's cap to have them win the Big Ten. I mean that window we're going to repeat this on a few of these Big Ten West teams, but the window for opportunity to get to, you know, to make a little bit of a leap in this conference, it's over. You're not playing the Big Ten West anymore. 

16:52 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You're never getting back no it's over. I mean, if you were in Nebraska, it took them, you know, 15 years to get their shit together here in the Big Ten and's over and that by the time they got it together they got no shot. 

17:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
It's well said. Let's talk about a team that didn't make the Big Ten Championship game a few times, uh, here in recent memory, and then last year, I think stunned everybody considering what happened during the summer Fitzgerald getting fired, then it's a the whole. You know at least the college football world watches an isolated TV game against Rutgers where they get crushed on week one. The market hates Northwestern so much that I bring this up. They were literally at points in the week, a home underdog to UTEP. They destroy UTEP in that game and, boy you know, bron does a great job getting this team to a bowl game, to say the least. They win the bowl game. I watch it in person. They were more physical than Utah. I mean that that was as impressive as a coaching job as you'll see. 

17:49
Anybody forget just last season in recent college football history, considering what he was dealing, dealing with on the field and off the field. Now they lost some guys. I know it's 15 returning starters, but a lot of their key guys did go. A couple starters in the secondary are playing for like west virginia and notre dame, uh, so there's some key parts and pieces and parts missing there. Another thing schedule is a little bit difficult. They've never really had a strong home field. It's going to be very interesting to see what that set up a 15,000 seat, you know facility there right on the lake. It's going to be beautiful views, but barely any home field advantage. The only thing I could think of maybe sharp wise is, you know, a lot of the opposing fan bases, like the buckeyes of the world would have way more fans. Now they can control that crowd a little bit where it's 90 northwestern fans getting tickets. 

18:35
So I don't, I don't know what to make this team. I just I. They overachieved expectations so much last year that I think it's. It's certainly a fall down to Earth a little bit. Uh, you know, maybe a bowl game is even beyond their reach at this point yeah, I'm with you there in terms of like, I just don't. 

18:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It's a team that has probably the lowest overall talent level in the Big Ten. Um, and I know you, as you said, bring back, you know, a decent amount of guys, but a lot of these guys they're just I don't know how, honestly, I don't know how, he won eight games last night. That is one of the most underrated coaching jobs of the last decade in college football. To take that team, and I agree there's definitely some regression coming. The problem being is I mean this team's lined at four and a half wins. So you know, and and the market's all over it. 

19:27
Yeah, yeah, it was one of the. You know you were. Maybe, if you're, oh, maybe we can get a six and go under. No, no, no, it was. It was easily, you know, kind of baked in there. And, as you said, where are you get Eastern Illinois at home? But this is a program that has lost to directional FCS schools recently, like within the last couple of years, and has lost to Mac schools recently and that's the kind of like not to be, you know, begrudge what they did last year. But that's almost the kind of like those games are never automatic wins for for the Northwestern talent, the program that they have. So I don't know, even at four and and a half I'd still lean to the under. It's just kind of a murderous. You know, bro, that those last six, eight weeks are really tough, with not a lot of layups. Um, and I don't know, I mean Miami, ohio isn't a game. 

20:16 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Give me week one so four point favor in that one yeah, I laid it a little bit early on Northwestern, but uh, you know. You've seen Fando's current numbers Northwest Northwestern up to 4.5. Something tells me if it continues to climb, there'll be buyback on Ohio at some point. Boy, look at that total. They're already into the best piece of advice, but I think the market's getting aware of this. Look at that total of 41.5. I visited this facility this spring. Any type of wind off that lake is going to really have a significant impact on this stadium. I mean, it'll be something to look for. Their home games not all their home games, there's a couple of them. They're going to play what at Wrigley, but a majority of their first four games or so are going to be played in this facility. And I've got to tell you you're going to see under money as soon as those totals open up, and we've seen that in that game. Let's keep it moving. 

21:11
Next team up a team that's gotten a little bit more optimism as far as the betting markets. Minnesota is a team that the win total opened four and a half. It's up to five and a half now in a lot of spots. Pj Flex up to five and a half now in a lot of spots. Uh, pj flex had success here. Uh, not now. Last year was a little bit of a down year. You can see that over at fanduel now five and a half almost flat. Well, with the under juice, just a little bit there. Uh, this is a minnesota team breaking a new quarterback from new hampshire. The market expects it to be a significant upgrade. Taylor running back, provided he's healthy, should be fine. 

21:42
There still comes some concerns for me. You know I was talking to Bud Elliott before you showed up fashionably late at Circa I'm joking with you. You had a flight and he brought up a good point and it was a good conversation I was having with him. You know they lost a defensive coordinator, a longtime defensive coordinator, joe Rossi, yeah, went to Michigan State. He doesn't have prior experience with jonathan smith. Uh, yeah, he maybe got a little bit more. But that to me, those types of lateral, uh per se moves, what is that? A leading indicator, that something you know is not right in minnesota, because last year was underwhelming and you know a guy like that leaves I just, uh, it raised my eyebrows a little bit, not that you know I'm part of the over four and a half. You know we like them to beat North Carolina in week one, but that's just something that is preventing me from saying, yep, this team's right back to Slamley. You know they're right back to 6-7 win team. I don't see that. 

22:38 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I think it's going to depend a lot. As you said, the coordinator, you know the guy from Rutgers comes over Corey Heatherman. So you know I kind of like what he has and they bring a decent amount back. So I think this defense can get back to I'm not going to make maybe the peak of the Fleck era, but I think it can be very good again. 

22:55
The question that you got to see is and I think we'll lead into our next discussion here for the Rut, rutgers going like I thought Cali McManus was the worst quarterback in the conference last year. I don't know why Rutgers went out and got him. I love that that Minnesota went away from him. Um and again, and FC, I don't Max Brosmer, I mean I think he'll be an upgrade. I don't know if they have much past him. He better be an upgrade because I think I don't know if they have much other quarterback talent in this roster. But again, and darius taylor, from local guy from around here, a guy who michigan tried to get back at the last second running back, uh and running back and they couldn't get. 

23:37
And yeah, he can play. I think you can go back to a little bit more fleck ball here, uh, with a stable of backs. They got a couple in the transfer portal, bigger offensive line, um, and I just think it'll be back to a more classic minnesota not the, you know again, not the three and do I think they go like seven, eight wins? Probably not, but I think they're a bowl team, um, and I like that prosmer can give them a little bit more. They got Daniel Jackson as well. It's never going to be a team. I mean, for a couple years this is a team that had some really good skill talent. I don't really see that on the outside, but I think Brosmer can give them at least some passing threat. Where Kaliak Manis, I don't, I can't. I think he should be back at the FCS level, so I'm surprised he's still a Power 5 quarterback. 

24:26 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You brought it up, let's talk Caliak, maness and Rutgers. It's the next team that we're previewing here, rutgers, team that I like personnel-wise. Besides the quarterback, you talk about a running back. They have one of the more underrated running backs in the country. I like their meat and potatoes on both sides of the line of scrimmage. If you don't believe me, go watch them play Miami in the bowl game. They beat up Miami physically on both sides. You know Mario's all, cristobal's, all about the physicality. I mean Rutgers, shiano took it to them that game and I boy, I just we talked about this on the weekly show Missed opportunity for Rutgers because, man, when you look at the schedule and we talked about this I don't see Michigan, I don't see Ohio State, I don't see Penn State, I don't see Oregon. 

25:12
This was one where, if you got the quarterback right not that you needed a Heisman-level guy, but just a functional quarterback hey, if the breaks went our way you look at the schedule we could have won eight or nine games In this version of the big 10. I mean that would be an historic, like a really great season. Uh, for for Rutgers they don't have the quarterback. Uh, I think they can get to a bowl game, but I don't see much past that. That's where I'm at on Rutgers it's. 

25:38 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It's just bewildering that they didn't I mean, especially with some of the guys. I mean go and get an FCS level. I like what some of the G5 teams did at quarterback in terms of four better than one. You know we Right, they got two. How could you not get one of those two guys? You know I? But to think that Kelly McManus is going to be the answer for a team, as you said, the roster, a lot coming back. They've got some real deal NFL talent on that team, the schedule set up, like it's all set up. 

26:09
And not only are we both down on Calik Maness, but then that decision runs Gavin Wimsatt out of town, who I didn't think was any good. I mean, but now, if Calik Maness isn't your guy, you got nobody. Like there's nobody who's going to come in and be like, ok, we can have, we can run this guy out there. So I mean, at least Wimstaff or nothing else had a bunch of experience and some athletic ability. But I mean, yeah, I am shocked that they did not go out and make a stronger move in the transfer portal, or at least a couple of guys to throw at the problem, than that least a couple of guys to throw at the problem. Um than that, and and I think that sinks them from a potential like that was a ceiling. If you get a decent quarterback, big 10 championship type of schedule type of team that they had back where you like, that would have been a fun long shot of you know 100, 150 to one or something to sprinkle a little bit on. 

27:02 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Not with that quarterback room, though speaking of quarterback room and lack thereof, maryland has an overhaul at the quarterback room. They're next up a team that you know. I got to be honest, I think he's done a pretty good job here. At least he's exceeded my expectation, mike Loxley, the last few years, I mean Maryland's been pretty consistent. Now they win the games they should. They lose to everybody. That's worth a damn. But I think what helps them is they're no longer, you know, playing in that Big Ten East where they have to play at Michigan, ohio State and Penn State. They couldn't get over the hill there. They're definitely not going over the hill with this year's offense. That, I think, takes a big step back. This year's defense should be maybe, maybe his best unit. 

27:45
But uh, you know we saw the market very pessimistic on maryland open seven and a half, uh, down to six and a half, with the under on six and a half juiced. Uh, there you can see a fan duel. You know, under six and a half minus 142. So I mean literally legit moved more than a win here. I'm part of it, I agree with it. Now I will say this the one positive for Maryland at schedule, I mean Connecticut, michigan State, at Virginia, villanova, at Indiana, northwestern. I mean, even though I downgraded their power rating pretty significantly from last year, they could be favored in those first six games. It doesn't mean that they're six and oh, but I could see five and one. The problem is, after that, usc at Minnesota, at Oregon, rutgers, iowa, Penn State. They might be an underdog in all those, or maybe a favorite and only one, six and a half, seems about right to me. I'd probably actually lean under, but that juice is telling me to stay away at this point. 

28:38 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't, as you said. I mean, this is a team that has never been a team that I'm going to rely on, to rely on their defense and just that quarterback position. I don't love Billy Edwards Jr. They brought in MJ Morris from NC State. I don't think he was. You talk to people at NC State about him and he was definitely not the answer in terms of what they were doing. And again, it's a team that for a lot of years under Loxley had some really athletic, some really high-end skilled talent, put some guys in the NFL. I don't really see that as much on this offense in terms of what they've got all over the field. So it's a team that they kind of ran and, as you said, to go almost 500 for years in the Big Ten where you're having to play all the you know I mean Michigan, ohio state every single year. 

29:30
I agree with you, I think Loxley has done a decent job. It's just timing wise. I think there's some teams that really could have, you know, like some older Maryland teams that could have given the conference a much stronger run than this version. It's it just kind of like by the time they just got out of the big 10 East and get a lighter schedule. Now it's like and I don't really love this team, so I agree with you those early seven and a half were were money. Still would lean under at six and a half, but not going to play it with that juice. 

29:59 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I thought there was times the last couple of years and look, he's done three straight bowl wins. There was times where I thought this was maybe the fourth most talented roster in the Big Ten. 

30:07 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
They had Ohio State on the ropes a couple times. 

30:09 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And your boys. Do you forget? They had Michigan. That was a tight game last year, last, actually two years. They played Michigan tough so they just couldn't get, didn't get that big-time win, that breakthrough. But I still think he's doing a good job. He's obviously recruiting very well. It's just maybe missed that window a little bit. When you bring in teams like Oregon, I mean, that's, that's another loss on the schedule, uh, ucla's. Next, speaking of one of the new teams in the Big Ten, uh, boy, we talk about teams that have been bet down in the market. My goodness, I would argue that UCLA's win totals probably move the most towards the negative. 

30:45
On the Bruins, nothing but one-way action against this team. I see it. There's certainly question marks about the inexperience of this coaching staff. Deshaun Foster has never been a coordinator. Some people really like to be enemy hire. I'm kind of a wait-and-see there. The offense should be okay. Defense, I think, takes a pretty big step back. And then I think the big thing that's holding UCLA back is, boy, the increase in strength of schedule. Because when you play at Hawaii which is not a gimme, we see the market been very anti-UCLA there. And then you're at LSU, oregon, at Penn State lots of travel. I mean there might be only three or four games that they're favored in. You're starting to see why the win total was early six and a half, now down to four and a half in some spots. 

31:32
Yeah, this is as you said Four and a half there at FanDuel. That's amazing. 

31:39 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you just don't see that. I mean, you just don't really see that in this era of sports betting, college football, that type of movement, you know, two-fold wins, although on uh, on a season win total, and I mean, am I gonna make, am I gonna make the devil's advocate case for UCLA here? Um, they do. I mean they were Ethan Garbers, I think is okay, I'll give it that they had kind of a. It's like under Chip Kelly. They went through this transformation of trying to be more of like this. By the end of it it was like this physical defensive team. So they bring a decent amount back on defense. I don't really know what to think of either coordinator or hire. Bien-ami was a guy who, like three, four, five years ago, you're like who's going to hire him to be the next NFL coach, and now he's, you know, taking the OC job at UCLA and I I just we're going to find out. 

32:34 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
all the people that cried and, you know, wanted him to get a job, so we'll, we'll see what he's made of. 

32:39 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, he's, he's going to have to show something this year, Cause yeah, and that, as uh, our producer points out that that insane Deshaun Foster oh my god, it was almost like a skit, like an SNL skit, yeah like did this guy take an edible before he came out here, like what, what is he? 

32:54
what is he like? He seems like he was spaced out in the zone. So yeah, that that. That isn't really reassuring if you're uh for a Bruin fan, but I don't know. I think uh, and as you know, you talked about the, the and as you talked about the fade on the week one game versus Hawaii is another one where they have been faded significantly in terms of that game, moving to under a touchdown, under 13, mostly painted 13, touched 12 and a half some spots. 

33:23 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So yeah, I'll give you something. I think it comes down again. I think, being honest somebody that's watching right now I'm telling you sometimes market timing, I think you could have gotten a better number. You've you fired a little too early. I agree, I'm not against it. Uh, I do think it's getting to the point where it's getting the market's getting too cute. This is in the weeds, but we saw the market, specifically week one, get too cute with Stanford at Hawaii last year, washington State at Colorado. 

33:53
State, so this kind of reminds me of that. So I was hoping the market would really bottom out on this game where I could fire some UCLA. But I'm kind of in between now. I do like my Hawaii, like 18 and a half, but we'll see. And if you follow the show, I think we're talking about this one. It was still what? 17, right. 

34:13 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it was still a good three, four points above where it is now. 

34:19 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
One more positive about UCLA. I snuck on the field a couple weeks ago. Love the Rose Bowl, Rose Bowl baby. 

34:25
The Rose Bowl baby and the surrounding community around it. Yeah, love it. Beautiful. If you're a college football fan and you don't need all the bells and whistles, you just want to look up at the mountains and look at the scenery and soak in the history and the sun, nothing better than the Rose Bowl baby. A team that's never been in the Rose Bowl as far as you know, obviously never been in the Rose Bowl as far as you know, obviously didn't win a Big Ten championship is Nebraska. That's the next team A lot of you know. 

34:51
Unlike UCLA and Maryland, this is a lot of expected of Nebraska this year. This is one where the market likes Nebraska particularly. They like that early schedule where they're probably going to be favored in their first seven games of the season. Lots of returning experience, 16 returning stars for them. I like what they have up front in the defensive line. I think they're improved at wide receiver, I think, but nobody really wows me as far as wow. That's a skilled position guy you can really count on. They love Raiola. He looked good in the spring, but now you're asking a team that's had seven straight losing seasons. Your win total is at seven and a half. You're going eight and four with the true freshman quarterback. I have my doubts. I I'm. 

35:30 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I want to hear what you think, but I'm on under seven and a half yeah, and you know what rayola not only I mean, I know, you know one of their, their highest recruits. They've gotten in a long, long time, but he was a guy I think four different high schools throughout his tenure. At tenure in high school he played four different. 

35:47 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
His tenure was like in a 24-month period for school. 

35:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah. So I don't know, man, I agree with you Relying on him to carry an offense which has been pretty miserable for years, even going back to the magician Scott Frost era. There they just were never really able to get it going, and that's not really Matt Rule. I think the defense can be good to very good this year a lot returning, a lot more experience, I don't know. To get to eight wins, I just think you have to kind of be a high. Now again, you don't have Michigan, you don't have Penn State. No Oregon, yeah, no Oregon. 

36:28 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Still out of Ohio State to kind of be a high no again, you don't have uh, michigan you don't have penn state, but no oregon, yeah, yep, no oregon. 

36:33 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Ohio state at usc I was gonna. I mean, they got three really tough iowa, uh, no games, yeah, like. So I agree, it's, it's light early, um, but man, I, I just I can't, I'll own it. 

36:46 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
It's even. It's what plus. It's even money. I'll own it under 7.5 for me. 

36:50 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'll take it. That's the only way I could go as well. 

36:53 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, so best bet under 7.5. I bet a very similar number Not one of my favorite bets for those watching, but it is a bet that I made and I haven't played back because I still. That is giving Matt Rule a lot of credit. And it's not like I don't like this year's team. I mean I upgraded my touchdown over last year. I just to ask them to win every single coin flip game when they have proven to be the worst team in the history of college football their last five years. I know people are regression, regression because they're what eight and 30 in their last 38 games decided by one score Regression, regression, regression. I've been waiting on it for five years. It hasn't happened. So, wolf, it's going to have to happen this year for them to beat us on this win total that week two game against Colorado. You want to talk about NBC's licking their chops for? 

37:36 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
TV ratings on that one, that is, a on both sides, what I'd call a must like both both players need that game. 

37:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Bad and obviously listeners from last year. I just got reminded of this freaking game right before we started recording this. Of course we had Nebraska in that game last year against Colorado. Well, jeff Simms is not the quarterback anymore, so thank God. So, yeah, we lost that one. It's unbelievable. 

38:00
Washington next up the Huskies obviously off a national championship game appearance that came up short, to say the least, against Michigan there. But where they really come up short here is returning production or lack thereof. How about a big fat zero returning starters on offense for the Huskies? New coach Jed Fish, who you and I both like underrated as far as I'm concerned. Now they got some pieces. You know. At quarterback getting Will Rogers. You know that's a guy that's got a lot of starts under his belt in college football, in the SEC. I mean you're not going to replace Michael Penix, but that's a pretty good option. 

38:39
At running back, I thought they did a good job getting the Arizona kid to come over Coleman. So I don't think that's a significant downgrade from what Washington had at running back last year. Wide receivers a massive downgrade when you lose three NFL draft picks, although that Boston kid's pretty good, uh, where they really are short, and it showed up in the spring game to me, man o-line, d-line and going to a more physical conference. They are decimated there and I'm worried how they're going to hold up or won't hold up this year. So it's another team where we've seen a lot of movement on. 

39:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
The under went from seven and a half down to six and a half and I right now, if you know push came to shove, I'd probably lean under six and a half yeah, as you said, uh, I don't think, you know, even though the defense brings some back, it wasn't, I mean, it wasn't a great defensive unit, so I'm not particularly bullish on the defense. 

39:27
And the o-line, um, I just think, is a massive, massive concern for Will Rogers, who's not a guy who's going to run around. I mean that I don't. I think you almost we'll see what Jed Fish does and this is kind of, uh, if you're bullish on Washington, it's kind of in Jed, we trust type of thing. He's a guy who, very similar to Kalen DeBoer, good offense everywhere he goes. He never really short on having you know an offensive scheme, that I believe in him getting the best out of his personnel on offense. But this to me is going to have to be almost like a, a Mike Leach type of Will Rogers you know offense, where they just get the ball out like boom, boom, boom, boom, like boom, boom, boom, boom boom, they're throwing short passes. 

40:04
They're doing all that like classic spread type stuff and I don't know about, you know, in the big 10 for that type of travel up in. I don't love that idea of um. So again, I agree with you, I agree with the market there move um but I mean they've got that. The start of the schedule is pretty easy though yeah, I was gonna say they, can you know those first five weeks? Uh, they've got some definitely. 

40:27 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean you could come out of that four and one pretty recently or five, and oh so yeah yeah, so yeah, I, I don't again, I didn't I'm not running the bet under six and a half yeah, for sure. 

40:40 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So to me, yeah, it's kind of uh, probably a pass on a team that we'll see what jed can do, uh once he gets some more players in. 

40:48 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Anxious to see, you know, say they are 4-1, 5-0, and then they get that big home game against Michigan. That would be a big barometer game for them. Anxious to see how the market prices that one, because at that point Washington wouldn't have played anybody. Michigan had already played Texas and USC. So that's a game I'm kind of focused on and maybe once we get there we can find some value. On your Wolverines is what I'm saying. Iowa's next Boy. I got a feeling we're going to be involved on this team. 

41:17
The market loves Iowa and what they love is the schedule that they see. You can see Iowa probably being favored in 11 of their 12 games, with the exception being at Ohio State. They see one of the best defenses in the country. They see the return in production. People are going to love that. They have 16 returning starters overall. 

41:34
I mean I don't know if a returning starter on offense is a good thing for Iowa, considering how freaking bad they were offensively last year. They're in the top 10 in a lot of returning production rankings. I mean, just because they're a short favorite against Iowa State, minnesota, washington, michigan State, wisconsin, ucla, maryland, nebraska, just because they're a three, four, five point favorite in those games doesn't automatically mean that those are all wins, especially when you're coming off a season where somehow, someway, you had one of the worst offenses. Not only in the country last year, but in the last 15 years of college football there's only been eight worst offenses and those uh, those eight worst offenses averaged win total for the season. What those teams won? A game and a half. Iowa won 10. I just I. You could be a much better team this year and not even come close to the win total, and that's where I think you and I agree on this year's team. 

42:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, this is probably as diametrically opposed a position as we've had to a market number and a market since we started doing the show. I know I used to have a friend at the show but Elliott gave out them to make the Big Ten championship game the win total. You know eight and a half sitting there, you know, heavily juiced under, but there's some know eight and a half, uh, sitting there, you know, heavily juiced under, but there's some other eight and a halves out there with with less. I. I don't believe in it. I don't. I'll tell you that. I don't believe in the new. I don't believe in their quarterback room, especially I don't believe in the new offensive coordinator hire. I don't believe the offense style is going to drastically change. I don't think their offensive line's very Lost their best lineman off last year's team they tried to bring in that Alabama transfer came to left tackle. He goes back to Bama. I don't see it. I just don't see the offense being dramatically improved and I could see the defense taking a small to medium-sized step back, even though they're bringing some back. Some of the best players off last year's defense were gone and just medium-sized step back, even though they're bringing some back Some of the best players off last year's defense were gone, and just, you know what? 

43:31
They were running the heater last year. Baby, they're at the blackjack table. They're hitting blackjack, blackjack, blackjack. You know what? At some point, as you said, I think, the water finds it level. And we're not talking about, like you know, the late-score gamebraska streak or anything. We're talking about this team being a historically bad offense that won 10 games. When the bell curve here is, you should have been at the complete opposite end and won like four. So, yeah, I'm, I'm out on iowa. Needless to say, uh, I'm under on the win. Total Eight and a half wins. 

44:07 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
A heavy juice, but that's one I'm not afraid of. I don't see nine. 

44:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, no, no, I tell you listen. 

44:14 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think you're probably closer to six and six than nine and three. 

44:18 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I agree, and you know what I think by if you bet that eight and a half, I think by middle of October, I think this team's three and three and you're already to the window there. I'll say it like that because I think they're not going to beat Ohio State and I think some of those other early games are very losable, I think, at Minnesota's. Losable, I think Iowa. State. 

44:44
Yeah, I think Iowa State's losable and I think Washington could come in and give them trouble and even it was so to me under at any any number any number. 

44:56 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Eight and a half are becoming more and more widely available. Shop around for the best price, but we'll go ahead and market the fan dual price here, minus one 88. It's heavy juice, but again, I can't kid him anywhere. Just to put it in perspective, I bet under eight, thinking that was going to be the best number. I was going to see was under eight. So I can't believe all this love for this team. Speaking of love, normally in this type of year you hear all these glowing practice reports all across the country. Oh, okay, this did not get down in iowa, just the opposite. The scrimmage. I have not read a worse practice report as far as any position group, any. Uh, you know the offense or defense in the entire country this fall camp than what I would did on offense. Uh, last week's scrimmage Horrific. 

45:44 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Even had the chance, what was? 

45:45 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
it McNamara, 8 out of 24. 

45:47 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, 8 out of 24. I had to pick a sack and try to fumble and, as you said, usually the reporters on those scrimmages you lean a little bit to the Kool-Aid, right it's when you hear something really bad. That's the type of nugget that me and you are like whoa Usually. Like whoa, like that. Usually the guys over the team have to be a little bit more, you know, like, oh you know, x looked great for the making the guy look great. Both quarterbacks were like oh my God. So I don't think I've got. Mcnamara was a okay game manager at Michigan two knee injuries ago with significantly worse talent at Iowa. So, yeah, I'm as you said. I don't think we could be much stronger than what we just said here. We're both anti Hawkeye. 

46:31 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Two other quick notes and we'll move on. Cooper DeGene was maybe their best offensive player, getting them stuff as far as special teams and considering also special teams, maybe their best player on their entire team and best guy for their offense was the punter Taylor taylor, the last couple years giving them short fields, uh, pinning the opponents down inside the 10-yard line. Defense forces a three and out. I was still putrid, even though their average starting position is among the best in college football. I just, they don't have those two guys, I just. And a lot of 17, 14 wins can turn to 17, 14 losses, just like that. And the margin of error for a team like this is so small and I don't see it. So there we go under eight and a half wins for Iowa. Wisconsin's next second-year coach, luke Fickle, kind of underwhelmed a little bit. Obviously there's still question marks about his offensive philosophy and whether or not it can work. Tyler Van Dyke, as we're recording this, has just been officially named the starting quarterback. The Miami transfer, not wild about it. We'll see. 

47:33
I think this year's team is better than last year's team. I think they'll be a little bit healthier on the offensive line. They need to stay a little bit healthier at running back Schedule's. Not very forgiving, considering Alabama, week three. Then you're at USC. Penn State's on the schedule, oregon's on the schedule. I lean over six and a half, but again it's. I don't see eight and four. It would have to be. You know, seven and five, I think, is what they'll go. I, this is a team I don't think can run much better than that. 

48:03 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean I, I mean it was ugly last year. The long go offense, the transition from the man ball to the we're going to spread and throw it around, didn't go well, didn't go well at all. They still, you know, we're able to even rely on their defense. I'm, I'll be honest, I'm just not, I'm not a fickle guy, not a bit. You know, like I don't think he's bringing, you know, wisconsin back to the promised land and Wisconsin, for all those years, you know being able to, you know, beat up on the Big Ten West, there, that's all gone. I don't know, you know what I thought they had a system that worked well for the region and the talent that they had, and going away from it. I think you're going to regret it because I just, I don't see a lot of improvement here. I don't love the guys they have in terms of just, you know, like, all over the offense. 

48:55
And I know, listen, depending on what you think of Van Dyke on there, can he, should he be better than last year's? You know, quarterback, yes, but I'm not, I'm not super bullish on them. Um, again, not bullish on the long go, not bullish on where the program's headed, not bullish on the overall roster. Uh, the defense again was solid. I think you'd be solid again. I'm not. I'm not a buyer, though on wisconsin I will say the number, though, isn't where I I'd be. Look, you know six and a, and I can see why some people might be buying the over. If you're buying in it, it's not, I would need a seven or a seven and a half if I wanted to go under on this team. 

49:36 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
In the weeds and I don't want to sound you know me, I'm not a Notre Dame homer, but I follow it and a lot of the guys and hear me out as far as the connection here a lot of the guys that were responsible on the field and off the field for the Cincinnati job and obviously you can't argue with the success Fickle had at Cincinnati a lot of those guys are not with Fickle anymore. They're on Notre Dame staff A bunch of the assistant coaches for the Cincinnati teams, recruiting coordinators and whatnot. So I just find it interesting that they all chose not that Marcus Freeman's proven anything yet, but given the choice, I know Notre Dame's a little bit better program than Wisconsin, but I just can't believe everybody that's been given a choice between let's work with Fickle or work with Marcus Freeman. They've all chosen Freeman. So yeah, I'm a little pessimistic on whether Fickle can get this turned around, especially this another team program, big turned around. Especially this another team program big 10 west. Yeah, they'll be all right. Now it's no longer the big 10 west, now it's just the two best teams in the big 10 and I don't think they're getting in that mix anymore. So really, this, this addition, really hurt, uh, the wisconsin, the iowas and nebraskas of the world, yep, next up. 

50:42
Next up is one of those new newbies, usc, who again I think there's question marks on how they're going to handle the new conference as far as from a physicality, especially when you've got a coach that's not known for his physicality. This is a team though I think maybe is a little bit under the radar because obviously the guy like Caleb Williams I just go back to, I thought by far their best performance last year was without Caleb Williams. That was the bowl game. I don't know if there was a little bit of locker room issues or what, but they look pretty good without him. At least first test in the bowl game. We'll find out right away against LSU right here in Vegas. 

51:16
I love the defensive hires, not just Lynn on the SDC but brought in basically an all-star defensive coaching staff. That has to be a significant upgrade over what they've had the last couple of years. Uh, gonna have to be. I just I worry about when you also lsu, notre dame, non-conference, you're playing michigan, penn state, wisconsin, nebraska, a lot of physical teams, uh, I just their weakness would be up front, o-line, d-line. I don't know if they have the competitive depth yet to hold up. So I I kind of understand why the win total is 7.5. I can tell you this USC fans, when they started 11-1 under Riley, weren't thinking by year three they'd have a win total of 7, 7.5. 

51:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I will say I'm probably more bullish on this team, definitely than the market is All right, but I think this offense can be back to I. It's like people didn't lincoln riley didn't forget how to coach offense, um, so to me, I think a lot of the problems are on the defensive side of the ball, which I'm not going to say they're going to sure you know, totally sure it up in one year. But they actually hired a real dc, some defensive staff. I like they had been spending money on to accumulate some defensive talents which didn't really translate into better defenses. But I think those players are there and can be kind of a, you know, an instant upgrade in terms of the and I I know people. 

52:40
He was, he was very polarizing, but Caleb Williams, I know he was, he tried to do so much of his own thing last year that I think you saw in the bowl game that if you just run the Lincoln-Riley offense, you run the plays, you deliver the ball like you should on time, like Miller-Watts has the capability to do, it can be a very good offense and they've got a lot of guys Zach Branch and the like that that can take advantage of that. So the only if I'm gonna be a pessimist, it's. I mean, you got LSU at Michigan, wisconsin, penn State, notre Dame at UCLA a lot of physical teams yeah you. 

53:24
just you didn't get a very nice introduction into the big 10 in terms of the way it's set up. 

53:31 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So I had a second toughest schedule in the country, behind only Florida. 

53:36 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'd lean, lean over, but lean over. 

53:39 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
What is that, Zach? Could you please bring that up? Where's that Seven and a half you going? 

53:44 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
best bet over man. Eight is tough, I feel like that. I feel like they get to. I would say you know, feel confident they get. If you're giving me like a you know flat seven, I like, okay, let's see if they can get to eight. I'm I'm bored, I do like that. I will say I'm in on them week one, though versus lsu. There you go best bet that one. Yeah, I like. I mean, I know they're it flickered to seven during the summer. I don't think it gets. I'm in on them week one, though versus LSU. There you go Best bet that one. Yeah, I mean, I know it flickered to seven during the summer. I don't think it gets back there, but I like it at six or better. 

54:14 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Six and a half. There you go. Mark that one down, zach. Six and a half USC Trojans Fight on. I'll be rooting, honestly. I'll be rooting for USC in that game. I hope Brian Kelly loses. I might be there to root that one on. There you go. That is the legend himself. Joey Knish producer Zach Filtz I'm merely Brad Powers. Normally you'd say hey, we've talked 14 teams, we're done with the conference, we've got four freaking teams left here, starting with the defending national champs, the Michigan Wolverines. 

54:50
I don't even know why I need to. You know queue this one up. 

54:52 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
In fact, I'm just going to go to you, knish, give me the breakdown on your wolverines. What they got, yeah, I mean this is this is one of the if I know jim harbaugh and what he did and taking this program to heights that we hadn't seen in many a year, uh, we'll get all credit to they have and they and listen. I know some of the defensive staff left but they bring in Wink Martindale, dc. I think the defense still has the opportunity to be the best in the country. That's the type of talent it has and, I think, returning, maybe not the type of depth it had last year, but we're talking two first-round defensive tackles, a lot of guys, a first-round cornerback and some guys that Jay Sean Barnum transferred from Maryland to where everybody's talking up. I think the defense can be elite. 

55:30
The big question mark is what are we getting on offense? And I know I've been dreading this moment because I know my guy Jackie Taffer, summer hit the books listener. You know I'm a Jackie Tuttle truther. Word on the word on the streets and all in the hard streets of ann arbor is uh, that, unfortunately, my guy jackie isn't a hundred percent and it's gonna be our man, uh orgy leading, leading him out there week one versus fresno. Um, depending on whose camp reports you're going to believe, I don't know. He's a guy. I got to see it to believe it Because when I've seen him on the field I've seen a great athlete that I don't want to throw in the ball 20 times a game. We'll see if he's matured and can take that next step. So if there's question marks with Michigan, it's definitely going to be at the quarterback position. 

56:33 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You think wide receiver too Offensive line, takes a step back in my opinion. 

56:40 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't like the coaching staff. 

56:42 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Honestly I'm just being honest I think Martindale has seen his better days. Who would you rather have? They've had three guys from the pros, the last three, you know. Obviously Minter, who was the guy that started it McDonald's, yeah. 

56:57 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, they both, you know. Yeah, I mean yes, who would you rather have? I think that's a significant downgrade. 

57:06 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I don't see it, buddy, and I'm just not being an ass towards you. I got to tell you one of my favorite bets I made all offseason and I got 300 plus is against you under 9.5. 

57:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean listen, I agree they do play. I think the role that I'm going to love Michigan in most this year is Sing that again underdog role. 

57:32
Is that short dog at Texas game? All right, that Texas game. I love them as a home dog in that game. At a field goal or higher, love, so that I like. But again, as you said, they got to play Oregon, they got to play Ohio State, they got to play Texas. They don't. I mean they're going to have to, you know, really have it together for a lot of the year and, as you said, if the quarterback position doesn't come through, then you could be looking at, yeah, in seven, eight win type of year. But I think the defense can be that good where, if you run back the offensive playbook, physical offensive type of season this year, yeah, we'll see. Did I jump the gun a little bit on the 9.5? Yes, maybe a little post-national title afterglow there. 

58:21 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'd rather be in your position. Give me the title and then you look like a fool for the next five years. 

58:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Just as a fan. When you win one of these and you're not alabama, I don't. If we go eight and four this year, I don't give a damn. 

58:35 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'll go watch some youtube by the last year's season I think you'd be, you know, if you went three and nine and one of those wins was against the buck guys. So you'd still be like life is good. Uh, yeah, I, I got question marks with. That being said, all jokes aside, I do think, provided they don't have the depth as last year's defense, but if they stay healthy, I do think it's a top five defense in the country. And speaking of defense, transition here a little professional broadcasting. Uh, penn state has had a good defense but specifically last one of the top three defenses in the country, manny Diaz has gone as defensive coordinator. A couple other studs on the defensive side of the ball, but I got to give James Franklin credit. We like both hires that he made at coordinator Kotel Nicky on offense, tom Allen on defense. 

59:20
There's some bits and pieces to work with here. I still got some concerns on the quarterback. I just have not seen him throw the football down the field, forget consistently. He didn't even try last year. We'll see if Cole Nicky can scheme some stuff up for that offense. Sophomore slump for their two running backs last year. Hopefully they bounce back to where they were as freshmen. Look, james Franklin, I mean the jury's. I won't say the jury's out, but the book is there. He beats the teams he should. He has not been able to beat Michigan and Ohio State. Michigan's not on the schedule this year but Ohio State still is and they're at USC. But I really, right now, looking at it, I only have an underdog in one game at home against the Buckeyes. So I think it's a 10-win team. I think they. 

01:00:09 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, as you said, this is a talented team and I think it really depends most of it we both. It has not been a in Franklin's tenure. He is a coach that has to have coordinate. He's not a schematic coach, so he's a rah-rah guy. He's a recruiter guy, he's a culture guy. He's not a guy who can fix the problems on offense or defense when they occur mid-game or during the week. So he went out and he hired two guys who we really like and I think they're both upgrades over guys they've had, not just last year but in kind of the recent past of Penn State. I think they are the best coordinators Penn State's had in a number of years on both sides of the ball. So if you believe that and, as you said, you know a schedule that sets up where to me that if I'm paying jame franklin this kind of money and I'm spending this kind of money in the program and I'm getting ohio stuck got, it. 

01:01:05 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
He needs to win one of them. 

01:01:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, they gotta win that game. I I totally agree like that, the whole like show. If I'm paying this guy this kind of money, he goes out and wants raises every year trying to, you know, ready to show himself to other jobs. I just spent money on these coordinators. I got this type of roster coming back. They need to win that Ohio State game, even if you could, you know, maybe a drop in that USC or something. But that to me is a I don't know if I call it a must-win game, but for the Franklin, franklin era this whole word the third, fourth, best team that's got to be over To me. They've got to have that game at home at Penn State. 

01:01:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
They're an underdog in that game. But you know what? I agree with you. I haven't talked about this publicly, that's a bet that I made. There's those memes out there I don't know if you saw the, the shooting in the Olympics, like the people that have all the glasses and all the, and then the guy just sits up there with a gun. Sometimes you know they're like hey, you know the guy with just a gun, that's the feel betters. And then the person oh, I got my, you know my system and my analog and all this stuff, that's the one with all the glasses and all that. The Ohio State-Penn State game that was just a feel. It wasn't like a big. You know, I got a big overarching thought it wasn't anything over three. 

01:02:21
I like Penn State. I'm in Cheap three and a half, yeah, three and a half. You can shop you might find something a little bit better than that. But again, fanduel's got three and a half. It's got three and a half. It's cheap, I think it's. I, you know. 

01:02:37 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Here's what I'm getting at, feel I think Penn State might win that game this year. I just you know what, if I agree, even if they, I, I don't see like to me that's a game, that's a, that's going to be a game, like I, I don't think you know you're like to me, I would. I love getting over three there, because if they lose it, to me that's a close, like that's a, that's an all-in type of Penn State game for this guy. You get the whiteout. It's going to be probably a night game or something. It's going to be a wild environment. Yeah, I agree, that's a nice field game. 

01:03:04 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, and if you look at it, since they haven't beaten the Buckeyes since 16, but they've had three times where they've led by double digits. They've just blown these games. That's a field game where I would not be stunned if Penn State just won that game. So I have bet in the game of the year markets, I have bet Penn State, and if you're out there and shop around, anything over three is good there. Next up, two more teams left the newbie Oregon, the Ducks loaded. Recruiting classes have been back-to-back-to-back really good in the Pac-12. In fact, if you stack them against the Big Ten this year, right up there with Ohio State, transfer portal and the Nike money backings has done them wonders, including a quarterback, dylan Gabriel. They bring in Dante Moore's insurance policy as a backup. 

01:03:48
I think the jury's a little bit still out on Dan Lanning as a head coach as far as managing games when it's close Got outworked against and kaylin devore then those three matchups was the favorite in all three games and went oh and three a straight up. So I think there's a little bit of you know needs some questions that need to be answered there. But I mean I they got wide receivers. They're solid at running back. I don't know if they're lead at o-line, d-line, but they got enough guys where I I mean this team, it would be. There's a reason why I ran to the window and laid minus 200 for this team to make the playoff. 

01:04:17 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I just put it that way yeah, I mean I think you could make the argument that you know, player to player, that this is, you know, outside of Georgia. 

01:04:27
I mean you could even I got maybe you stack them up to Georgia like they this is, I think there's. I could even make the argument if you put in, give me Dylan know, dylan Gabriel over and Will Howard head to head, that it might be a little better just you know, they're starting 22 than Ohio state, like this is a team that is stacked. But as you said last year I mean they were a team that that I think was better than Washington player to player loss and and continually got outcoached and lost that game. So, yeah, this is what this is, a and with the, I tell you, with the money of this program throws around, um, this is kind of one that I it's it's tough to call the first year of big 10, um, you know make or break type of thing, but they've got a national championship type of roster and boy that game and they get Ohio State at Austin that early. 

01:05:17 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think they can win that game. It's just that then they have to beat Ohio State twice in the same season. That'd be very tough. 

01:05:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
But if you win, they have that game in the chamber. They're probably going to the Big Ten title. Oh yeah, so yeah. 

01:05:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And even beside that game. I mean we're at Michigan but they're favored there and I know you probably like Michigan plus the points, but I like Oregon to win that game. I mean there's just not a lot of. Those are the only two games where I haven't lined in the single digits. I mean they're a significant favorite in every other game on the schedule. 

01:05:50 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yep, yep, and just 18, you, every other game on the schedule, yep, yep, and just a team that you know what I? I really like the upgrade, uh, and it just it seems like dylan gabriel just fits it. I was not bo nicks in the big time, in the big games, just wasn't a guy who I I loved having, as you're like to me, dylan gabriel, I think, is. I'm not gonna call him a massive upgrade, but I like him having behind center a lot better than um, than my last year with new. So, yeah, I'm I think this oregon team is is no, have you? 

01:06:23 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
bet the win total. I I mean, I think it'd be a disaster if they went 10 and 2 and it hasn't moved. It's flat, I just so you think a disaster at 10-2?. Yeah, that means they'd lose to Ohio State and Michigan. I mean you got to win one of them, right? Yeah, I mean I guess not. 

01:06:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I agree, I kind of agree, I don't know I would be like 10-2 Dan Lanning. 

01:06:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You know he doesn't have the chops yet. 

01:06:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, it is tough to see, like I mean, it really does seem like they've got pretty much, you know, two losable games. 

01:07:03 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I just, I mean, zach, if you could I know it's a different menu Can you bring up the to make the playoff menu at FanDuel? I just I'm anxious to see that price. Now. On Oregon, I put it in this perspective Ohio State and Georgia were priced at like minus 500 or greater to make the playoffs and Oregon was sitting there earlier and you see the prices there. I still think Oregon's offering some slight value there, that number. They are much closer to Ohio State and Georgia than that market's giving them credit for. Again, I I just said I think 10 and two is a disaster. Tenants too Might still get them in the playoff. 

01:07:41
All right, I, you know what. I'll own that one. You don't like laying three to one, but I, that's a. We need wins man Minus 300. Let's go. And again, the insurance policy. Not that I'm a big Dante Moore fan. If Gabriel gets banged up, I got to back up quarterback. I like the Novusad kid at quarterback. So how many teams have like three functional quarterbacks? Right, right, right. I like the schedule. I'll just put it that way. So best bet for me Oregon minus 300 to make the playoff. 

01:08:08
Let's talk the next one. I'm sure we'll have some thoughts on this program. The Ohio talk. The next one. I'm sure we'll have some thoughts on this program. The ohio state buckeyes. Final team on our list here is previewing the big 10, a team that I have, number two. My power ratings. Oregon would be three. Obviously, georgia one. But the buck guys. 

01:08:22
A lot of talk this offseason. Obviously a lot of money was spent. Uh, player retention, a lot of guys on defense back. Everyone decided to come back. They go out and get will howard. We'll see how that works out. 

01:08:33
Looks like Will Howard is going to be the starter. I don't know if he starts the whole season. I'll put it that way Chip Kelly's brought in as the offensive coordinator. As much pressure on a coach as any that I've seen, probably in recent memory. Obviously you've got your hot seat coaches each and every year. I'm talking about a guy where it's getting close to national championship or bust. Certainly the Michigan game could be bust, like he could be. 11-0 lose to Michigan and the fan base would want him gone to lose four straight. So a lot of pressure on Ryan Day. I don't know if he handles it that well. You saw the post game, the Notre Dame game. That seems like a guy that's wound pretty tight. I want want to beat up an 86-year-old man. I don't know what that's all about, but you can just feel that there's some tension here. 

01:09:19
I love the look outside of quarterback. I think I'm being nitpicky. I don't know if the offensive line is elite, but it's still good. Defense alliance really good. I know a lot of people are going to say it's great. I didn't see great. In the second half against michigan, missouri and notre dame. I saw three teams go up and down the field on them on that defense. So there's some questions there. But I mean, I I'm getting being nitpicky. They deserve really are the second best team in the country behind georgia. Uh, they're going to be favorite in every game, with the only exception being at oregon. Uh, what's your takeuckeyes? I'm anxious to hear what you got. 

01:09:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what I mean. I kind of there's, as you said, as talented a team as you can have, it's just. But that quarterback coach combo just doesn't have me running to the and, as you said, like maybe a little nitpick with the O-line, I think they'll be fine there. Every other position group you've got four and five stars all over the place. You've got returning talent. There just really isn't a way to play them. In terms of the betting market that I'm super interested in, I don't want to bet them the heavy juice to make the playoff or win the national title or that quarterback or 150 for the conference. There's just not a lot there in in terms of how I want to play this team. Uh, that I think is is really bettable for me. So again, I think they're very good. 

01:10:46
I don't really trust, when I don't trust, the quarterback. I mean this is a guy who couldn't, couldn't get over the hump with CJ Stroud who you've seen in one NFL year. Looks like he's going to be, you know, a top three quarterback in the NFL. And now they've changed. That's the other thing, the stylistic. Like when Ryan Day was first coming in, they were thrown all over the park NFL receivers everywhere. They still have that type of receiving talent, talent, but now it's like we're going to chip kelly and we're going to run up-tempo man ball. I don't love that. I didn't love it at ucla when he was doing, at the end, I think, just some of chip kelly and we talked with martindale, you know, having a maybe there's best years behind him and chip kelly's best years behind him. 

01:11:29
So, yeah, very good. There's just not a way that I I really want to back this team with. That said, I'm not, I'm not fading them, uh, in any matter, there's a couple of individual games. We've taken some spots that uh, the penn state game. We just talked about the michigan game. I've taken some, uh, you know a few numbers uh there, uh, that have been in michigan. So I almost like kind of that position if I'm going to play it against them in terms of just a select few games. I know some other people that I know have liked playing Oregon at home versus them. 

01:12:00 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I played that. 

01:12:02 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, so those are to me, those are. I like that better than any of the you know, the future market or any of that stuff there. 

01:12:09 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean individual games. I talk about Penn State possibly beating them Oregon, but I didn't run in the window of bed under 10.5. 

01:12:15
I mean no, even though it's juice to the over. I understand that. Look, running back one-two punch is as good as I've seen. I mean probably Reggie Bush, landale White type. I mean what they have at running back. I think their secondary is elite. It's just, you know, you hear comments like yeah, I know he's a former Ohio state coach, ever Meyer but he's like this is the best roster in college football in recent memory and I, that's what I'm grading it at. Is it the best roster? And right? 

01:12:41 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Right. 

01:12:42 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, again, I don't even have number one this year. I have Georgia number one, so that that when I'm being, people are getting on me and I'm being nitpicky. That that's what I'm grading it against, because I know this Buckeyes, if they don't win the national championship, I think there would be a large portion of the fan base that would act like this season is a disappointment again. Even with a win over Michigan, if they went undefeated and lost the national championship game to Georgia, there would be people disappointed. That's the expectations this year. 

01:13:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean you just can't right, literally cannot get higher than the bar that they they've set this year with the money they've spent and the chirping from the media and stuff. And, as you say, it's a coach that hasn't really come through under pressure in his tenure and the pressure. It couldn't be any hotter, it could not be turned up any higher than than what they have this year. Uh, with the expectation where any loss is going to be unacceptable, uh, maybe and what does say they lose one of them games. 

01:13:39 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
what's happened? What happens this team are they want? How tight are they wound? Uh, I have heard again this is in the weeds being nitpicky that judkins isn't wasn't a great teammate at old miss last year? Uh, is he not? If he's not getting his carries, I don't know. There's just there's stuff there that I'm not like pounding my fist. This team's going to win the national championship this year, but it's still a great team from a great state. It's my home state. I'm wearing the Ohio State hat, so I do think the Buckeyes winning are good. It's good for college football, just like Michigan winning was good for college football. Closing thoughts Honestly look, you know me, I'm pretty self-deprecating. I thought this was our best show. We did all offseason so far. 

01:14:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It's our country man, it's our land man, big 10, you know Big 10. So I agree, this was good. I wish you know what we didn't give out. I don't did you play Anything in terms of conference futures for this conference? 

01:14:31 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I did. It's terrible, though I mean Ohio State plus 165 to win it. I think I played a little bit of Oregon to win the Big Ten at like right around that price at plus 220. I think plus 220 is still playable. In fact I got to look what I played. In fact I might have played a worse price than that. I'm a little kudos to FanDuel for putting that up that. I'm a little kudos to fanduel for putting that up. 

01:14:56
I I never know when to attack markets now because it's just uh, I don't, plus 220 is exactly what I bet, so let's go with that. Are you happy with that plus 220? 

01:15:05 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
yeah, no, I I like that, um, because I agree I I played a little penn state at a number that was that was higher, though, so I don't know? 

01:15:11 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
yeah, I did too. Those are the three that I played. You Did you play any Michigan? 

01:15:15 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Not yet. I kind of I will tell you though, that's one of those. If they lose the Texas game, then maybe I'll jump in. Then I think at some point, if you get an early, if you get a loss on the schedule Michigan's one that I'd be looking to play after a loss. 

01:15:33 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
What if they beat like? I don't understand the thought process. What if they beat Texas? What's that have to do with I? Would rather play them after they beat Texas to win the Big Ten. If they can beat Texas, they can win this conference. 

01:15:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, I mean I just the fact that they've got. I just don't know if the schedule lines up right, because I think that Ohio State game, I I'd rather just play them in the, that that game either money line or straight, that then have to play that game and then the big 10 championship the week after. 

01:16:03 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So you, like them, plus the points there, if you want to bring that up, zach. I think like nine you want to give that one out if it's more than 10. You liked it like. You're like seven and a half. Give me that. 

01:16:14 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Give me michigan hey, buddy, you're gonna get double digits. I got some 11, uh, so I, I, yeah, I got, I got a few prices on this game. Uh, that, uh that, but I, I do, I mean, at double digits. Is there some risk there if michigan offense falls off cliff? Sure, but to me, uh I well the bucket. 

01:16:34 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'll say this on your behalf on that game If they're going to decide to play this different type of style offense, where they're not throwing it all over, that plays into your hands as far as taking the double digits If you're going to go old school Woody Bogue type of game there. But yeah, if Michigan's getting 10 and a half or more in that game of the year line, uh boy, nine and a half. You must have hit that before we. I've seen you must have been hitting that recording, I gotta fill myself up okay, you hitting the kiosk on that one. 

01:17:07
thank you, zach, for pulling that up and I'm gonna be uh zach, if you want to recap our uh bets from from the show real quick. I know I'm putting a lot on you, bud he is. That is Zach Phillips, the star of the show, folks. 

01:17:20 - Zack Phillips (Ad)
So here's what we got Coming into today. We had one Big Ten bet. That was Michigan State under 5.5 wins minus 150. That one you guys talked about already. And then we added Illinois under 5.5, minus 128. Nebraska under 7 and a half plus 100 even money there. We have iowa under eight and a half minus 188. We added oregon to make the college football playoff minus 300 and oregon big 10 outright winner plus 220. So, by the way, minus 300. 

01:17:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That is the largest number we've ever laid here in the history of hit the books yeah, oh, the pressure's on me there and I don't did you mention it penn state plus three and a half against ohio state uh, so as well, the weekly bets that you guys are bringing up, we added uh, we added the penn state plus three and a half. We also threw in usc plus six and a half. 

01:18:13
That was another one that was added in there from knish boom, that was a loaded show again, I think our best show the whole off season. Closing thoughts I'll leave to the man yeah, hey, baby, we're, we're getting close. 

01:18:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I can taste it and you can tell hit the books is getting it, getting in mid-season form already, baby. So, uh, one more conference preview to go, and then then we got the live shows coming back. Thank you to our friends at FanDuel. Baby and excited to get the college football season started. 

01:18:40 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That is the man, the myth, the legend himself. Joey Knish For Zach Phillips, I'm merely Brad Powers. You just watched Hit the Books, part of the Hammer Betting Network sponsored by FanDuel you.