00:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right, it is that time again to continue our 2024 prop preview. As far as the upcoming season, with today's episode we are going to do Conference USA, obviously the smallest conference in college football, but a conference that sent a team last year to the Fiesta Bowl in Liberty went unbeaten in the regular season. And I'm here to tell you there's a very good chance that they could send even a team this year to the playoff with Liberty schedule. We'll get more into Liberty in a second, but before I get into all that and preview each and every team here, before I talk to to the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish, before I bring up producer extraordinaire Zach Phillips, who will be working behind the controls, let me remind everybody this is why we're excited to be doing these conference previews this year. We have a new sponsor you might have heard of them. They're called FanDuel, obviously one of the nation's largest sports books, and Hit the Books is now sponsored by FanDuel. Not only these previews that we'll be doing, but obviously Hit the Books regular weekly shows that we'll be starting up doing three a week. That's right, three a week Mondays, fridays and Saturdays during the season, and I know we're going to be talking a lot of college football. 

01:21
Obviously, this is a college football show here and I know we're still a few weeks away from college football. But in the meantime, major League Baseball is the only thing getting us through the dog days. And this summer, fanduel is hooking up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily Daily, that's right. There's something for everyone each and every day. For the rest of the summer, you can take your boost or bonus and bet on everything Major League Baseball related, from home runs to strikeouts and even the final score. Plus, with fan duel, you can combine your bets in a live same game parlay for a shot at even a bigger payout. So head on over to fanduelcom and start racking up some runs in the sun. Obviously, fan duel is an industry leader. It's one of the best products out there. Lots of college football offerings. We'll be talking about a few offerings that they posted here. Great, great line menu. It's first to market in college football A lot of fun bets. So we're excited to have FanDuel as part of a sponsor. 

02:10
I do have to read this disclaimer and I don't know how old you are, but if you're old and you're a kid from the 80s or the early 90s. I'm going to read this like the Micro Machines guy. Keep in mind if you are betting at FanDuel, you must be 21+, 18+ DC and present in select states. Opt in and require wage requirements. Supply bonuses awarded not with tradable bonus bets or profit boost tokens. Restrict and supply, including bonus expiration See terms and conditions at fanduelcom Sportsbook gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rghelpcom in Colorado, dc, illinois, iowa, kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino. Kentucky, louisiana, michigan, new Jersey, north Carolina, ohio, pennsylvania, tennessee, vermont, virginia and Wyoming. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777. That's four sevens. Or visit ccpgorg slash chat in Connecticut. 1-800-9-with-it in Indiana. Visit mdgamblinghelporg in Maryland or visit 1-800-GAMBLERNET in West Virginia. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinemaorg or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts. Or call 1-877-H-HOPE slash New York or text HOPE New York in New York. Kanish, a lot of me talking man. 

03:18 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm going to let you do the rest of the talking for the rest of this show. I'm glad you're the read guy, because that would have taken about 86 takes of me doing that. We would have been here until midnight with me having to read that. So I'm glad you're the take guy. Conference of America's conference, conference, usa baby. But first, last week you know what we said. We were talking about a couple of award markets and we said you know, fanduel didn't have those up yet. We'll ping the trading team to see if we can get those up. 

03:50
A couple of people were, you know, in my dams chirping. Well, what does this new sponsorship mean for the listener? This is what it means for the listener. Baby, zachy Phillips, pull those up. Now we got some Doak Walker. Now we got some Belitnikoff Bird stripping. 

04:03
Might have a couple more to come here, but a few of those award markets, including one player I'm not going to give it to him because if you would have listened to some of the previous episodes you'd know what player we like in that Bolitnikov market that is there for the best price in the market. But those are up Lowest hold Most offerings in those two award markets, with a couple more, I think on the way, most offerings in those two award markets, with a couple more, I think, on the way. So, hey, that's it. That's what we do. Baby, we answered the bell, we answered the bell, fanduel answered the bell. So that's part of the partnership here that we can bring to the listener. So excited about that Nice job on the read and excited about talking about what we'll call it one of the most interesting conferences out there for the America's G5 this year. 

04:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Look, I love college football Leaves a bit to be desired. I know I say that term a lot, but Conference USA, obviously, from Power Rangers' perspective, outside of Liberty, the weakest conference in college football. But speaking of Liberty, let's start off like we've done with some of these other conference previews that we've already done. We'll hit on each team, we'll talk more about some teams than others, but we'll start always at the top, liberty, who clearly, if you pull up Zach the conference odds to win the conference deserves to be a slam dunk favorite over the field here. As far as a power rings perspective, I have liberty 10 points better than the second best team uh in conference usa on a neutral, and keep in mind conference usa uh has a home game. So liberty likely uh will probably get a home game for a second year in a row. 

05:35
This year's team, you can make a case it may even be better than last year's team. Cadence alder's back, cooley's back at running back. Nice additions, some sneaky additions in the transfer portal. Obviously they get the coach back. Jamie Chadwell, that's all he does is win. Going back to Coastal Carolina, there's not very many in the last four or five years. As far as any head coach in America. It's won more games than him, so there's a reason why the win total is 10.5. There's only one game in question as far as whether Liberty will be an underdog or not. That's, at app state, a non-conference game. I think they'll have to run the table. Considering that was a terrible performance in the fiesta bowl last year. They'll have to go unbeaten if they want to grab that playoff spot. Uh, as far as that first one for for the g5 conferences, but getting jacksonville state and western kentucky, the other two contenders, um in this league, both at home, I mean, this team deserves to be a minus-money favorite versus the field. 

06:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, no, I totally agree with that. I mean it says something about the power of this program that they were able to keep Salter. I mean that was a guy who, if he would have put himself on the market, would have had no shortage of Power 5 suitors looking to get him and paying him a good money. The fact they were able to keep him and add, as you said, I think it was seven power five transfers to add, which, again, you putting them, putting that type of talent in this league, just makes such a, you know, a differentiator from some of the programs that they're going to go up against. Yeah, I, I think you nailed that. I don't think there's a ton of interest in it. 

07:04
It would almost be borderline shocking if they weren't in the conference title again and didn't win the conference. Can they run the table and make the playoff? As you said? It has to be undefeated and I'm going to tell you, I think it has to be undefeated with almost a lack of other suitors. After that Oregon performance. That would be the question that I would have in terms of staying away from them. In regards to can they make the playoff, it's all set up for them to run the table. But if a team from the Sun, you know, an 11-1, 12-1 Boise, 11-1, 12-1 team from the Sun Belt, I don't know. I don't know. We'll have to see what the committee does here, but I think they've got to go out, They've got to run the table and they've got to put some of these teams into the blender to have a chance to make the playoff. But in terms of this conference, it is head and shoulders above the field. 

07:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
No question, there's not much else to say there. I mean, this is a team that a program I should say in a school it's just got. Their budget is, you know, significantly higher than everybody else in Conference USA. Let's talk about a couple of teams that might be able to give them a game or at least make the Conference USA championship game. I'll start with Western Kentucky. You know a team that's been okay. Helton's done okay, he's consistently won right around eight games. 

08:26
You and I last time, I think, we talked to Western Kentucky was we were doing a live show and they had a comeback. You might have remembered that in the bowl game against Old Dominion with a backup quarterback but that quarterback's back. But on top of that they bring in Finley, tj Finley, formerly of Auburn and had a nice season at Texas State. So I think they'll be okay at quarterback even though they lose a two-year starter. There Consistent 7-8 win team. That's where the market has Western Kentucky's win total right around 7.5. They haven't gotten too involved. Again, I always shop around. So I mean, if I saw seven which I did at a few other books, I'm a little over there. But a team that I don't think necessarily is being is overrated or underrated so far in the offseason markets. 

09:12 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean. So here's the concern I have is Western Kentucky. Tyson Helton, his tenure was a little bit on the rocks. He hits an absolute home run with the Zach Giddey hire and the offensive coordinator hired to bring him over from Houston Christian and brings all Bailey Zappi, brings all the talent with them. They become this, you know, greatest show on turf offense and then they lose a little bit and the offense, you know, go after 21. It goes from a top 10 offensive college football to about 40th and they lose a little more and it drops to about, you know, in the mid 50s and they lose a little more and it drops to about, you know, in the mid-50s. Now, really, all of those pieces that they had from the original. You know FCS transfer, getting all those Houston Christian. Well, that's all gone. So now it's kind of as you said, they bring in TJ Finley. They've got all new personnel. 

09:59
Can this Western Kentucky team kind of be the same? You know it's been a trending in the wrong direction from when they peaked under Zappy. Um, and also you know what I know they've changed defensive coordinator. It's gotten back to a little bit. You know, when we first got there this was like a defensive team. They've tried to reinvigorate that. I know they've hit the transfer port a little hard in terms of defense. I'll be honest with you, I'm not. I'm more of a glass half empty guy on this Kentucky team for the year. I know there was some better numbers out there early. 

10:30
I'm not probably dying to play the seven and a half under it If you had an eight, maybe around there, I think I'd be a little bit more inclined, depending on what. But at seven and a half I think it's a pass for me, gun to my head. I would go under because I think this is a program slightly headed in the wrong direction, while a couple of the other teams in conference usa are, I think, maybe a little bit friskier let's talk next team. 

10:55 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, jacksonville state, who actually transitioned very nicely to the fps last year, and you might have heard of him, rich rodriguez, their head coach, wins everywhere he goes for the last 30 years with the exception of everywhere, almost everywhere. 

11:08
Let me with the exception of ann arbor, michigan. But other than that you can't deny this guy. You know back-to-back nine win seasons for him here at jacksonville state. Not much returning experience for them. Uh, and you look at the schedule, though I think a really sneaky game week. One game where we'll get a good feel and where both programs are is that game where they host coast of carolina on a thursday night. That's a game I'll be watching because it's competitively priced. 

11:34
I'm gonna learn a lot about both programs right out of the gate. Uh, as far as jacksonville state for the entire season, uh, markets, you know right, similar to west kent, kentucky. It's kind of. You know who do you like better in that one? Uh, now, I kind of like I personally lean I know you're a little bit anti Western Kentucky I just like Western Kentucky having that game at home against Jacksonville State this year. So I I give the edge slightly to Western Kentucky as far as that second best team. 

11:58
But what we're talking, you know a difference of a point between them, the second and third best teams in Conference USA Having gotten too involved in the win total. I think they were slightly. If you looked at some of the very early markets, they were slightly overrated, in my opinion. We've seen a little bit of money come in against Coastal in that week one game. But other than that I don't have a strong take on this Jacksonville State team. I mean, I think generally speaking, sometimes when you have so much success and it seems like a breeze and it's an easy transition, maybe there's a little bit of a sophomore slump here in year two of the FPS for them. 

12:35 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean there's some. I probably like this team again. We're, I mean, very thin margins here, but probably like this team a bit better than Western Kentucky. However, there is a lot of turnover on. Rodriguez is one of those guys that kind of reminds me of the late Mike Leach where you almost plug and play almost anywhere. He gets guys, he runs his offense. You know what it's going to be. It's going to be a ton of quarterback run quarterback power as fast tempo as you can get it. And again they brought in Zion Turner from UConn, tyler Huff from Furman, a couple of guys that can probably run the Rodriguez system. You know, to a point they kind of seem like the quarterbacks to fit that mold. 

13:16
The defense, you know, kind of brings a little bit of what I think could be. You know Rich Shroud's always had that aggressive 3-3-5. And you know Luke Olsen from Tulsa kind of comes in here and I think they're still going to run that system has, you know, a decent amount coming back there. So I think in terms of talent, this is a program that even when they're at the FCS level really had an affinity for kind of accumulating. I'll call it ex-FBS talent to be able to get in and having size in that. So again, I think they can be the second best team in this conference. But again, far and away from from what liberty has um and not to. It's another win total, that kind of kind of on the. I'm on the same wavelength here with the seven and a half. Just just doesn't really interest me one way or another speaking of talent, they did lose a very key defender. 

14:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
They're by far their best defender. The hardy kid on the defensive end who was one of the nation's leaders in saxon tfl's last year. Lose him post spring significant loss. I mean, he's a guy that probably worth a little bit, to the point spread even a half point or so, so maybe that's maybe a little bit of a difference. Uh, there I I downgraded jacksonville state, just losing that guy post-spring. 

14:31
Let's talk about next team. It might be a surprise to you. You and I, we don't go over. We're off the cuff here. We feel like we know enough about college football. The fourth team might surprise because I'm going in order top to bottom in my power ratings. Sam Houston State is my fourth best team in Conference USA. I'm anxious to get your take on this because I think I'm a little bit more pro of Sam Houston State than the market. Maybe we got a bet here on Sam Houston State. 

14:56
Generally speaking, unlike Jacksonville State, it was a tough year, one transition. However, there's a lot of things I liked One they were competitive. Even though they started off 0-8, they didn't get down on themselves. They didn't quit on the season. They were competitive in a lot of those games, including on the road against Liberty. They gave Liberty the Liberty's toughest game of the season last year and they finally broke through, won three of their last four games. I like their head coach, casey Keeler, against a Hall of Famer, in my opinion, when it wins everywhere he goes. 

15:27
I think in a day and age where we don't have a lot of returning production, particularly for the group of five schools, they have enough, in my opinion, uh, for 14 returning starters. The offense was abysmal last year. It can only get better. I like what they did in the transfer portal at quarterback. I think that'll be an upgrade. I think the schedule is not overwhelming. A couple of tough games early, but after that, uh, and obviously liberty at the end. But uh, I I bet over four and a half, so where are you at? On sam houston state, I bet over four and a half, so where are you at? On Sam Houston State, that's still four and a half. 

15:56 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Well, where I'm at is I still have PTSD from the first month of the season last year, having to watch that offense when I think we were backing them and I thought what we thought was some inflated numbers and they couldn't get a first down for like three straight games. I think they had seven total points over the course of three weeks. However, as you said, it was a team that late, sneakily, kind of got it together, brought it on. Now they are replacing a lot on the defense, a defense that was kind of carrying them through the first part of the season, but they were able to get it together. And I agree, now the non-conference there is you know it's not for the faint of heart there because it's a rice team that I, you know they were going into the rice game game week one having rice there, ucf, obviously very tough. 

16:40
A Hawaii team that I think we're both a little pretty bullish on um. They've got Texas State so they didn't get, I would call, you know, any schedule favors, but a team that if you're looking at how I think they match up with some of the other what we call it middle and lower tier of Conference USA. I agree with you, I would kind of be leaning towards where I think you're going with this win total. It's just can they get one of those coin flip games we'll call them? Can they beat Hawaii in that at home to get over this hump here, what do you think? 

17:15 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, you know, zach, you can mark me, I'll own this one. I'll go over four and a half. You know, last year they had a tough non-con. You mentioned, hey, they couldn't get a first down in the first three weeks. Well, they played BYU Houston and I'm trying to think who else. They played Another. Really they played another really tough team to start the season. 

17:31
So they had a tough go at the start. They were able to survive Air Force's defense, which was really good too. So it was BYU, air Force and Houston, so I think they won't be overwhelmed. I think the Hawaii game, at least with it being at home, is winnable. The other three probably not, but again we can come back to it. 

17:51
I'll own it over four and a half, but I think you'll like it more as we dive into some of these other teams, a lot of them with new coaches. I mean, who do you like over this team? There's just more continuity at Sam Houston State Some last I checked zero-sum game Can't have a bunch of ties anymore in college football for the last 30 years. So I like them better than a lot of these teams, including better than a lot of these teams, including the next couple that do have new coaches. Middle Tennessee would be one, and obviously they bring in over Derek Mason after firing their coach after two decades. He wasn't my favorite coach, but you know, anytime you can last two decades in today's day and age in college football, you've won enough. Obviously, mason should be familiar with the area he just coached, you know, after getting fired from Vanderbilt just a couple seasons ago. 

18:34
Not a big Derek Mason guy, Not a big fan of the returning production or lack thereof. Only seven returning starters Heads is not overwhelming. So I mean Ole Miss is obviously tough. Duke, I mean I think, is down. Memphis is tough, but you know, again in conference outside of Liberty, I mean it's not like they're much worse than some of these other teams. I haven't gotten involved. Win total sitting at four and a half Seems right to me. 

19:05 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm with you here. It's just again stock still up and down, 10-year I think you know he had the bet when his son, I remember, when his son was coaching for him they were able to kind of whip it, ring it around. They were kind of a fight. He won a lot of games that you wouldn't think. They had some up and down years, but some conference title appearances I'd say for a large part of his tenure they were pretty fun. 

19:28
Derek Mason doesn't strike me as fun or competent. I don't love that hire Defensive coordinator Brian Stewart. His last stop was in the XFL. A lot of turnover, I'm not really sure Under Derek Mason. Vanderbilt was kind of trying to be like a, like a run. You know I am. When you're a program that's on the fringe I think the last thing you want to do is try and like, line up and be physical and do all that stuff, because that you're never going to get those players to do it. So we'll see what type of you know offense you know Mason comes in with and how this looks. But I know it'll. It'll definitely be a different from what stock still ran out. I don't love, uh, the coaching staff hires. I don't love the returning production um, I don't so why haven't you been under four and a? 

20:21
half I'm. I'm not gonna argue with you if I mean some of honestly. The reason is because of some of the other teams we've still yet to talk about here in this conference that, uh, that think I mean, listen, they've got a returning quarterback. 

20:35
That I think is all right. I just they're going to have some games Like I mean I'll give you four games Kennesaw State, utep, New Mexico State, fiu, la Tech. I mean they have Tennessee Tech for FCS games, so like they've got five or six. You know you call them winnable games, some coin flip games, so I mean if I had to play it I would take under. But it's not one of those that I'm like running to the counter here and saying we got to go under four and have, just because of some of the lower tier of this conference that are with. 

21:08 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'm with you, I know that. Yet for me, if I had to bet, it under. 

21:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Let's talk another program with a first year coach. New Mexico state. It's your guy, baby, tony Tony. 

21:19 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Tony Sanchez. Yeah, I, I think he got a bad rep, rep, uh, rap rep, whatever you want to say. Uh, as far as UNLV, he laid the foundation. As far as fundraising behind the scenes, he was unlucky in a couple seasons where they lost some coin flip games that would have put him in a bowl game. So I actually thought he did a better job than people probably remember. 

21:41
At UNLV Takes over New Mexico State. He's a New Mexico State alum. He was on last year's staff. But boy, this is one where I'm surprised. The books were really on top of this. 

21:51
I thought I would have an anti-New Mexico State position as much as any team in college football this year. I downgrade them as much as any team in college football. This year they only have eight returning starters total. I'm always about historical outliers. Well, new Mexico State's off arguably their best back-to-back seasons in the history of their football program. Obviously, jerry Kill leaves Everybody else, diego Pavia, everybody else, except with the exception of the offensive line that returns all five starters. Everybody's gone from them. So I think they take a massive step back. 

22:25
But the market, you know, a team that won 10 games last year opens four and a half win total. They were on top of this downgrade. Actually we haven't, actually we haven't even hardly seen too much line moving a little bit on your money. But you know it's not like it's moved off of four and a half. That's what it opened at and it stayed at four and a half. So I thought this is one that was. I was expecting five and a half, maybe six. I want to go under now. Never got there. So it's a program that that I'm boy I. It would be a tremendous first year for sanchez if they got back to a bowl game. 

22:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't, I don't see it, though. I I mean I remember us in the early, early, uh, you know, in the winter here in michigan, uh, talking about, uh, you know, eyeing this as a potential uh win total, but hey, it came out pretty sharp, um, I think juiced under four and a half is probably right. I mean, this was a program that we had a lot of fun with last year. You know, had the future rolling into the championship game at big prices. A team that we were backing a lot last year, fun, fun team, you know, jerry Kill getting, you know, a program that's been on the mat for, you know, 50 years up to one of their greatest. But I mean, you said it, they're kind of all-everything quarterback. I mean, the offense was basically Pavia running around like a maniac last year and a team that was carried in a lot of games by their defense. The defense is like all gone. 

23:48
And now we said Pavia and our man, you know, jerry, jerry Kill, who you know know one of the all-time um, the coaches who can do the most with the least type of guy there, um, and now, and as you said it, maybe tony sands will be able to up the, the talent profile eventually to this new mexico state team. But this year seems like, seems like a rough one, um, and I, even with, even with the schedule, even with, even with the number coming in a little better, I probably still lean under here with the four and a half, so didn't get to the window on it, was hoping, as you said, for a better run, but I just don't see a lot of reason for optimism here. With the schedule, maybe there's more that looks better in the fall than we we think, but there's just so much turnover here for a program that, as you said, is usually, uh, scraping the bottom of the barrel. So it's going to be a tough year one for tony. 

24:41 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's talk about a coach that has had a tough couple of first two years so far and that's combi at louisiana tech. Uh, back-to-back three and nine seasons. You take it back to the previous coach. Louisiana Tech had three straight three and nine seasons this year. Not much coming back. Seven returning starters I mean that's just only two. On offense. A lot of their best guys are gone. The Smoke Harris is the world, the Allen kid from that wide receiver transferred to Texas A&M. Not a lot to work with. 

25:12
I thought the market was extremely aggressive with the opening number at 5.5. I went under that. Now I think obviously I'm closer to where it is now at 4.5 wins. So I originally took a fade position on the Louisiana Tech team. 

25:25
I'm not sure I really like what I see from Cumbie. I mean I know a lot of people will look oh, the close game due for regression because he's had poor luck. I don't know if it's poor luck or poor coaching, because two things when you lose a bunch of close games each of the first two years, two things I look at turnovers and penalties. And Louisiana tech has not cleaned up Turnovers, has not cleaned up penalties. In my opinion, a couple of signs of not that great at coaching. You lose your close games why You're not playing smart football and with hardly anybody back. I know they got a little bit better depth, but not experienced depth. I don't like this team either. 

26:02
This year. We're going to sound pretty negative, this preview. But even at four and a half I'm not running the window to bet. You know to go for a middle, because I bet under five and a half and you know, okay, I got a win difference. Let's bet over four and a half. I'm not there yet. I can tell you that I would need probably at least four. 

26:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, I'm with you here, especially because I don't. I think this could be a. You know, this could be it for Cumbia If, come be honest, if they don't show something, if they don't get over that win total, I don't know if you bring them back for a year four, because, as you said, there's not a lot of. I mean, last year I think they had a just a better roster, a better talent at hank bachmer court and it did not did not come in. Um, you know, and this is a traditionally a program that should be better than where they're at in this conference. It has more talent, local talent and resources than a lot of the other teams that we're talking about here at this realm of the conference. So I don't think the program is going to be satisfied with three, four, five win seasons. It got Skip Holtz fired after one of those three and nine and if they go back to the well here with a four or five win, I think he's out. 

27:13
And I don't have. I mean, the three line, the three lineman transfers are all from the FCS level. I don't love, you know, a lot of the what they did in the portal. I think it almost reeked of a little desperation. I don't, as you said, a coaching and underwhelmed. If anything, I don't see why they would be. I think they're potentially even a downgrade off last year's team. So yeah, it would be even at 4.5, it'd be an under for me. 

27:47 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You know what worries me and I'll have to dive in and there might be some program issues here, because I thought Skip Holtz was a pretty good coach. They got rid of him and I know it's not apples to apples, but Skip Holtz, what's he do? You know, right after he won everywhere he went, including Louisiana Tech. He's won what? Three straight UFL or whatever league it is yeah, yeah. 

28:06
Three straight championships in the three years he's been gone. I don't think he's got better talent Again. A lot of their marquee guys that at least impressed me on tape are gone. So I'm definitely on the sell on Louisiana Tech. I don't know if we got by teams here, but let's talk FIU. 

28:31
I like McIntyre. I think he gets the most out of his team. I'm stunned that they were able to win four games each of the last two years. You look at them statistically, they've been more like a two-win team, at least the last two years. I think this year's team's much better. But I don't think the record gets better. He's got 14 returning starters. Does lose one of his best players at wide receiver. Chris Mitchell is going to start at Notre Dame. I don't know if that's poor on Notre Dame or wow, big loss on FIU. Probably a little bit of both. But man win total here four and a half. I want to lean under. To be honest with you. It's just that, mcintyre, I don't like laying 170 at this point. Mcintyre's got again. I think this year's team's better than the first two and both of those teams won four games. He just finds a way to win. But this might be one of those cases where, hey, this year seems much better, but the record doesn't reflect it. 

29:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I, you know what I agree I'm. I love mcintyre as a coach. I think he's he's he's gone into some situations like he is just like, he's like the fixer, like he goes into these awful program situations, comes in and is able to get you know whatever you can get out of. This is a program that like that was having trouble affording practice, you know material and just having like in terms of financial resources they have almost none. Um, and he's, as you said, a respectable four and eight the first two years. I think he's a better like, if we're just talking, I think he's a lot better coach than most of the other coaches in this conference that he's going up head to head against. They return a decent amount. 

30:07
It's just if I would let you know, like if you gave me a four, a flat four a year, uh, I would be much more inclined to play over than on the four and a half. I think you can replicate that. Uh, you know that four and eight, with maybe a bite at the cherry at five and seven. And you know what non-con. You've got central michigan coming in. They got monmouth coming in, plus you know some of the other bottom feeders here in in uh conference, usa. I think they can get the five I need. I would need a four, though, to play it. So this is one of those. We'll talk to you on it. You know, shop around type, that the four and a half gives me a little leery. I would want a flat four, um, and that would be a bet for me, even if I had to pay a little bit more juice, because I think they can get to four. Five would be kind of the the over the hump type of season let's talk, maybe one of the more high variance teams in my opinion. 

31:00 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, in the entire, not only this league but in the entire country this offseason, tough team to power right utep. Uh, only five returning starters, a brand new coach and scotty walden comes over from austin p. Why, why aren't you just automatically fading utep? I've said this on a few other shows and, man, they remind me a lot of what texas state did last year really good fcs program, everybody transfers, with scotty walden over from austin p, a lot of excitement, young coach um. In just a very short period of time he signed by far the best recruiting class that utep's had in modern history, brought in a ton of transfers, to say the least. And we're talking, you know, 40 or 50 spots higher in the national rankings on a recruiting class he put together in a month. So a lot of energy. 

31:49
I've been in El Paso recently. I think everybody there's a misperception about El Paso. Oh, it wore as Mexico, it's a dangerous thing. It's actually a nice city, man, the facility, the sun bowls on a very nice stadium. So I can see why he's able to. You know, a young guy with some energy is able to recruit there. I didn't like their last coach, the low energy. So it's a completely opposite vibe. But I mean, my gut normally says hey, they got nobody coming back, not necessarily a good team, a terrible program, historically the last three, four decades, my gut says go under. But Texas State last year was a team I went under on and got my teeth kicked out of my throat. That's the only thing. If there's one team that reminds me of that, a young coach coming in with a bunch of FCS transfers, this is the program. So that's why I haven't bet it yet. I haven't bet under four and a half, even though my numbers call for it. 

32:42 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You know what I tell you. This seems to be the form. If you're one of these kind of middling G5 programs, this is the formula that I would go with, where you're taking an FCS coach and as part of it I'm going for a good FCS team that's been together, where I can bring 30% of the route, 10, 15, 20 guys, mix in some transfers, mix in a couple of the guys I have left and then go out there and see if we can put together a competitive team. You know what let's get a little spicy here of the futures in this conference that I would play, this would be the only one I'd be in If you're not laying the chalk on Liberty just to get there. 

33:32
Utep at 60 to 1, and again, one of those that I know we call it a value loser. It'd be a tough one to get home, obviously, and to be Liberty, you know. But if one of those has the opportunity, if everything breaks right when they come together, if you have a, they're not going to be as good as Texas State last year, but they don't have to be because this conference is terrible. So all you need is you know the continuity to come over over the new coach a program that I think, as you said, recruiting a little bit of talent, they bring over a lot of starters. 60 to 1 would be the sprinkle for me in this conference. 

34:11
Uh, as far as a conference future here, not not one of those, I think it's uh going to the window. You know, new Mexico State last year I had more confidence in than this 60 to 1 um, but this would be the only future in terms of. I think the upside is there for them to potentially make a championship game run if everything goes right, oh, but the downside is there as well for them to go under the win total. So I variance team will call it. 

34:35 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, so what are we doing? A quarter unit, 60 to one? 

34:39 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm in. I like it. 

34:41 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, because I mean, if they hit it, there's certainly a possibility. I I will say, um, just for those. Oh, fbs so much better than fcs. I power right the fcs all. At the end of last season austin p would have been favored over utep. So bringing in a bunch of guys, his best players, he's not going to bring in the guys that he, you know, doesn't think it's worth a damn. I mean, he's got a 1400 yard rusher coming over, a bunch of wide receivers, uh, but there's some stuff to work with. I actually watched utah spring game. There was some energy, believe it or not, that somebody was on the on the field and took video of play by play by play. I was like, yes, this is the stuff I like. Yeah, I think there's possibility there. There's also possibility that we look like an idiot and they go 2-10. But yeah, it just screams Texas State to me. So we'll see. 

35:32
Speaking of the FCS, there's a newcomer to the FBS this year coming from the FCS. It's Kennesaw State. Comes over. If you don't know where Kennesaw State is, it's in the greater Atlanta area. Kennesaw State is, it's in the greater Atlanta area. 

35:43
Kennesaw State program. That was a pretty good FCS program for a while, but the trend line hasn't been good the last few years. They lost their defensive coordinator, navy, who's now the Navy head coach. That kind of started the downfall a little bit Last year, kind of a throwaway season for them. What concerns me is they went 0-6 against the FCS. They won three games when it was against legit D2 teams. So they didn't try, but they didn't look good as it was last year. So they did play Sam Houston State and almost won that game. 

36:15
So there's at least that. Maybe that was the one game that they circled. But I just got a lot of uncertainty here. I think they're certainly not going to pull a Jacksonville State what they did. I think it's much more similar to Sam Houston State. In fact I'm probably even a little more pessimistic on Kennesaw State than I was even on Sam Houston State last year. I win totals two and a half and I haven't played it yet. But if I had to I'd probably go under, because I'm not even sure they're favored in the UT Martin game. This team would probably be an underdog in all 12 games. 

36:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree. I mean this is one where a couple of years ago also a franchise KF, a friend of the show, honorable Kennesaw State alum little. 

36:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Tim Fitzgerald. Yeah, what's the inside info? What's going on? I was going to say I know, I said you should. 

37:02 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I said you give me you should be on the sidelines Some of that spring game footage there, though. But I guess this is this seems like it's going to be a rough one. I mean this is a program FCS wise a few years ago really had it rolling. I mean they weren't, they were in the playoffs, they were. They were in the playoffs, they were upsetting teams, they were making a playoff run. And then we can say that they didn't really. They were trying to transition to the FB. 

37:28
But last year I mean you can transition but also not look like you've bottomed out here. And last year I mean last year was absolutely brutal. So to think you can recover from that, go up a level and now try and win three, four, four games, I, I just I don't see they. Also, you know, they've kind of changed a little bit of that. I, I would have preferred it. They reached, they ran this more about what was a base triple for a while. Then, you know, with a little bit of modernization to it and they've kind of tried to get you know, get a little bit of modernization to it and they've kind of tried to get you know, get a little bit further away from that and then I don't think Well, you add to the rules. 

38:06 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I mean, that's why Army and some of the they don't know what, to do. 

38:10 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You're right. And so now it's kind of left them. I think, in this no man's land of like, what are we as a program? Because that was our identity for a while, that we could lean on, and that was tough to play against for a lot of teams. And now it's like I don't know. So yeah, I would, I would go, I would lean under two and a half too. I don't know if this team can you know, I don't see three wins. 

38:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Now folks. That's why he's the man, the myth, the legend. I think that is part of their. Their problem is the new rules. As far as the cup blocking, they're struggling like a Navy and army. Last year flip their offense and decided to flip it back Cause it wasn't working. Yeah, and I saw state who was significant. Triple option is also dealing with those issues. That's Joey can ish, also producer extraordinaire. I'm merely Brad powers. We've come to the end here. What are we doing? I'll own Sam Houston State over four and a half, you like, and I also agree with the high variance UTEP to get them in 60 to one to win the conference. Anything else that we're betting. This is not a conference that we're wild about. There was a lot more pessimism than optimism here. 

39:18 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what I mean. One, we, we both liked utsa in uh week one against kennesaw. That number's run out a bit now. Um, yeah, I think it's. You know what? What is that? Even is there a fan duel, looks like. Is it 24 and a half? Said that there might even be a little bit further than that. If it's still sack, you get the kennesaw stavers. Utsa week one, uh 24 and a half. Yeah, no, no yeah, yeah, yeah, I agree, I passed that party there. 

39:51 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'm looking at week one to get and see if we got something. Oh, I don't know if we have anything, week one might be a total. Uh, but I I don't want to give out overs, overs when I don't know the weather yet. So, hey, folks, a long shot, you guys like long shots, and I have bet Sam Houston State over four and a half, so that's one I'm very comfortable with. I'm not putting up my own money. I expected to win when the books have it for three, four months. So I made that bet. I like Sam Houston State, so that's what I got. I got nothing else really. 

40:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, no, it's definitely a conference that hopefully, as we get into the season we'll see where some of these new coaching staffs are at and go from there. But yeah, it could be what we'll call a down year for Conference USA as they try and add some members and build up. 

40:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And it will be a conference we won't overlook during the season. If you know us and hit the books, we'll hit any conference and if we think there's some value again, whether it's UTEP, which we hope exceeds expectations, or if it's one of the other coaches, like you mentioned, either really failing or exceeding expectations, then we'll be talking this conference on a weekly basis. Keep in mind, on a weekly basis we are going to be sponsored by FanDuel. We thank them for sponsoring us. That'll do it for the Conference. Usa preview For the man, the myth legend himself, joey Knish, I'm merely Brad Powers. I'm producer extraordinaire Zach Phillips. You just watched Hit the Books, part of the Hammer Betting Network.