00:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right, five o'clock on a Monday. You know what time it is. All right, five o'clock on a Monday, you know what time it is. It is time to hit the books, part of the hammer betting network, alongside the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish, producer extraordinaire, zach Phillips, back with us after a much needed vacation, and, of course, we got all you guys in the questions and the comments in the chat. Before we get to all that, and a hell of a lot more, including a best bet, let me remind everybody that Hit the Books is brought to you by Gillette Razors. Oh, no, sorry. Hit the Books is brought to you by Betstamp. 

01:15
The easiest way to improve the sports better is to use multiple sportsbooks and always get the best odds. We recommend using an odds comparison tool like Betstamp. Betstamp compares odds across every sportsbook for games, futures and player props. You can save time and money by checking Betstamp before you bet. Download the app today. If you're looking to sign up for a new sportsbook account, please check out the offers available at betstampapp. Slash hit the books or you can hit the link in the description. If you sign up through this page, it does help support the show. Kanish, what's happening. Man, I see you're active. There's a couple of newsworthy events. Over the weekend you were pretty active on Twitter. 

01:50 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what Well, I've been mandated from the sea level not to discuss that on company airwaves. But, yes, some interesting times in this country, as always. But hey, hey, another. The bottom line is another week closer to CFB baby. So, yeah, hey, hey. And if you're a gamer, it was today, right, the NCAA EA Sports dropped today and all that. I've been out of the game a little out of the game, gaming a little too long, but I know some people were looking forward to that. Hopefully, you know, can get a look. Even some people had. You know, some old guys like us were getting, you know, getting the sticks back and getting into it. 

02:41 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I've never been in the game when it comes to that, so I like to deal with reality, not fantasy, but I guess I won't go on. I think it's kind of sad that 40-year-old plus guys are getting all excited about a video game. Our grandfathers fought in wars for us to have 40 to be talking about arguing over player ratings in a fucking video game, jesus it's not my cup of tea, but hey, everybody has their own thing. 

03:08
Uh, kudos, I I think you can be more productive in life than that. I don't know. That's just, that's not gonna be a hot, that's not gonna be a well, a warm welcome. Uh take, considering how popular this video game seems to be. Uh, it's tough finding actually college football stories. Everything's on this video game yeah, so like two, four, seven individual sites, like 10 stories. 

03:31
It's either recruiting or the this EA Sports game. I mean, there's nothing like on the upcoming season. Right now, it feels like, with the exception of some breaking news from just about an hour ago Jeff Tedford, fresno State head coach, dealing yet again with some health concerns he's going to step aside and we'll just get right to it. Trip in the chat. Does the Tedford news trigger a bet for me with Fresno's win total? It did. I bet under eight, not a big bet, but a bet that I made. Tried to get eight and a half. Somebody beat me to that at Willie Hill caesars. Uh, that was like eight and a half minus 160. Did not get to that quick enough but uh, I think under eights. Uh, positive vv and not a big one, but uh, bet that I made after I read that news yeah, I uh, I agree I took a little position as well. 

04:17 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I was able to find a juiced eight and a half, but nothing um again on those, the just the head coach ones, just like we talked with Utah state and Blake Anderson. Those aren't ones that I like to unload on um in terms of you know, just uh, as we saw we we've referenced Northwestern a few times last year, I think a lot of times when the rest of the staff remains in place, um, unless you've got a, a head coach with a huge, you know a big time advantage guy like um, a kaylin deborah or something like that, missing the season would be more um that one. 

04:51
And again, I like jeff like a lincoln riley calling plays on offense yep, yep, exactly, and so, um, yeah, it could be a little bit of a, you know, a downgrade there, but I think Fresno will probably probably be all right for the most part. Um, I again same thing like if you lost a starting quarterback or something for the year, though those are the ones that I think matter a lot more than than head coach. But hey, I can't say it doesn't, doesn't mean anything. Um, and then a little bit of kind of where, where does Fresno go from there in terms of the transition? 

05:25
I know Tedford kind of brought them back to relevance, which I came back, so I don't know they haven't. It's a school that should be, year in, year out, super competitive in the Mountain West because they have a recruiting base when a lot of the other schools do not. They haven't really, outside of tedford, um, been finding that that to me is a great up-and-comer job. Like that is a job I would agree, especially with the current state of the mountain west. If you're trying to make, like the jump, as you know, the level jump before power five, that's a job you can. 

06:00 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You can win 10, 11 games at no one of the big boosters at Fresno. 

06:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Okay. 

06:07 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And people probably won't believe this story. But whatever, I can only tell you what happened my side of it. When the Tedford, when he got rehired, they asked me this guy power player asked me, you know, for a list. I gave him. The guy number one on the list I gave him was Troy Taylor. At the time, uh, he was coaching Sacramento State. I was like that should be the guy you hire. So I think they made a mistake. Should have hired him instead of hiring. Not that you know. Obviously Tedford did bad in a second going around. I just I was worried about the health and you were not in. Today's day and age of college football is not to jump back into. If you're an older guy that has health problems, it is, it is. It is a young man's game right now to say the least. 

06:49
So uh, it'll be interesting. I'll see if he. I'll let you all know, uh, if he reaches out again. Uh, but you're right, I think it's a really good job. I thought, uh, I haven't even looked at the interim same interim as the bowl game because he did a really good job. I mean, he beat expectations. They hammered new mexico state in the bowl game, uh, when tedford stepped away even for the bowl game this past year. 

07:10
So I'll read more. But again, I made me go under, and mainly because unlv, washington state air force, there's like three or four swing games on their schedule. Obviously there'll be underdogs at ucla and then the big underdog role, week one against michigan. So that's kind of why you know a couple of them games maybe swing more towards dog instead of favorite role. Not that our head coach is worth three or four points, but you know, maybe a point since he was heavily involved. As far as play calling, all right, let's just jump in the chat. It's active, to say the least. Uh, today, unless you got any newsworthy stuff, uh, that uh happened in the last week for you, no nothing. 

07:48 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Uh, you just say, you know it's a little, I'm just it's a little slow. To be honest with you, right now I'm I'm filling tennis and soccer leagues from, uh, you know, the middle of middle of nowhere. So, uh, yeah, I'm, I'm very I'm happy to talk more college football, say that charlie in the chat thoughts on georgia tech. 

08:04 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Florida State hoping for a 14 on GT. It looks like it's drifting the other way. I need a 14. I mean, a push came to shove, I probably I'm going to lean Georgia Tech right now, but I haven't made a bet on that game yet. I think you were asking me like six months ago. I want to say about what my numbers were, because you're looking at georgia tech. Am I right in recalling that? 

08:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
yeah, yeah, no, I I do recall, because this was one uh, we had like the early right, like the, when these lines came out, like in, uh, you know, I think there was. 

08:33 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think it came out like during the national title game. That's how long some of this stuff's been out um, but yeah, it's one. 

08:40 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree, they're like would love a 14. Don't think it gets back to 14. Probably sits in the zone between, you know here, 11 and a half and 13. If the game was tomorrow, would I bet Georgia Tech 13? Probably small, you know, smaller. Again, it's one I don't love, but it's one of those that you know. That'd be the way I was leaning. Hope that again early in the market, maybe as we get closer, more liquidity, we'll have some differing opinions. There'll be some people that like Florida State in this game and we'll get there, but for the most part just kind of sit letting this one marinate where it's at for the moment. 

09:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Kyle in the chat, mississippi State, over 3.5 minus 168. Decent chance they start three and oh and have umass on the schedule and arkansas at home. Dks4 other books four and a half. Yeah, I mean there's a little bit of difference opinion got out to four and a half, I think. Uh, uh, mr pitching intent uh, gave out under four and a half. So that's why I think fan duel jumped to three and a half minus 168. As far as I would, I would play over three and a half. That's just me. I think the offense is going to be better than expected. But man, it's a it's a first year coach with zero returning starters. On offense Tough, I mean, there's just not a lot of games. It's not like they have five or six winnable games, it's really like four, maybe five if you're super optimistic about the team. So there's not a big window there. I mean they're gonna have to run the. 

10:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
They're gonna have to, you know, almost be perfect in those winnable games, because they're gonna be a significant underdog in like seven games this year yeah, I mean, this is one, this is one that you know we're 20, we talk bandwidth of where teams can go and it's usually teams at the high, the very high end, the very low end of the spectrum of his team's going to win two or maybe three or nine or maybe 10. That Mississippi state kind of falls in that where you'll probably know by September 14th what this is going to, what this is going to do, because their conference schedule is absolutely insane. So they got, they got no favors in this sec schedule. You could talk me into that. They have. They have, you know, two winnable sec games, um, and then you know what, what are they gonna do in the conference? They obviously, you know you should beat eastern kentucky, but then you know you not like arizona state and toledo slam dunks. 

10:59
I mean I, I think right right like it's not like you, probably, if you're going to hit that, you know over three and a half, especially over you know you need those three and I would say I mean worst case two of the three, but probably all three, and then the UMass game and then maybe you pick up an SEC win somewhere along the line. But yeah, I'd lean that way on the three and a half. But it's one that, like if the number probably should definitely be four, if you played over three and a half at a good price, if you played under four and a half at a good price, that's one of those. It's it's, it's kind of one of those that I think, think without any, you know, if you're talking about where should the number be? 

11:48 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
should be right at four. So I don't have a strong opinion outside of that, unless you're getting 3.5 or under 4.5 at a good price. Yeah, and 3.5 juice minus 168 is getting near range where I mean, if you factor in the juice that's close to 4. So I mean full disclosure, because I'm sure people bought my preview. I bet over 4 when the market was I mean the entire market was 4.5. It was pretty much close to the spring game. I watched the spring. I'm like this offense can do some stuff. But uh, right now my numbers pretty much have it at four. So again, under four and a half, over three and a half shop around. 

12:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I, I did bet. There was one. There was like the game of the year on the egg bowl. Um, I just took a price. It was like 21 and I I listen, this is maybe maybe I'm a ant. I know you're wearing the reds hat today, maybe I'm too anti-kiffin, just the way that series usually plays out, about some 21 and 20 and a half there, um, in that one year play. So yeah, like, do you? Why you on the other side of there? 

12:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
no, I took 23 and a half oh you, son of a, yeah yeah, I think my numbers don't call for it, but I just think, man, a lot of them rivalry games. I just throw it out. I think, uh, I see some people were betting michigan state, uh, and then circuit came in with like a four point lower number when they released the game of the years, uh, but yeah, I, just, you could, some of them rivalry games, you get above three touchdowns. I mean, just give me the dog, uh, and again I kiffin, we'll see how motivated they are. Mr bc is gonna be wide open. I like the levy higher. So long term, uh, I I well, 18 and a half. 

13:21 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
There you go getting some clv, mr clv hey, that's, that's what we do on the show. We got to cash more tickets, but the CLV is usually never a problem there. That's one. Yeah, I just I agree with you. Like you get over three touchdowns in a game where you can like, first year you're just going to be able to go you know what Empty the playbook type of thing, and I think, yeah, able to go. 

13:44
You know what empty the playbook type of thing, and I think, yeah, I think that you know it's lended itself to be more competitive than that type of rivalry. So I don't think Ole Miss is that far and away in the stratosphere where you can't compete Like last year. You used the Michigan State. Last year was the first time in 15 or 20 years where one team's been national title elite and the other team's been, like you know, a dumpster. So, and that's the only time you've seen that type of spread where you know the game's 40 points. So, yeah, I agree, anytime it's reasonably, their teams are in the ballpark. Take, I like the points in that type of scenario. 

14:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Korean chat. Do you guys have a? Oh, this is a good question. Uh, creating a chat. Do you guys have a? Oh, this is a good question. Uh, overarching question do you guys have a separate bankroll for futures? Trying to figure out how much money I can have tied up until december? Yeah, I think that's probably a good idea. Uh, to have entirely separate bankrolls. Hey, this is how much I have for the season here's. You know how much I have a set? I'll say this the lines are starting to get worked into shape, to say the least. Uh, if you're jumping into futures now, I'll just say you're a little late to the party. I wouldn't be going too overboard now. I mean, would you concur there? 

14:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I would concur. Um, yeah, I agree, and and you know what the, the weight, how am I going to phrase this? If you're going to wait closer to the season, you would be one of those people that need so much liquidity, Like your portfolio or your bankroll wants to be able to get a large position on a lower ROI. You shouldn't be asking that question. It's like I got to decide what I'm going to bet on there At this point. If you haven't already you know taken positions, then I would say, you know, leave the majority of your bankroll for the weekend, week out stuff, or maybe some, you know futures throughout the year picking up some, you know Heisman or some, make the play off that portfolio. So, yeah, at this point I wouldn't go too crazy. But, yeah, if you've got a, you know, if you, if you're willing, if you want to go early enough, then yeah, set a, set aside a, you know a percentage that you feel comfortable, um, and get in and get in what you want. 

15:53 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean just to put in perspective. I'm like 250 plus bets in. I don't expect to have too much more other than just betting news like today, tedford stuff. I need stuff like that to bet now. So that's all I'm really betting is news now. I'm not just blindly going out. Oh, I look like I got a good, sizable advantage In this win total market right now. Win total has been up for months, so I think that value there is getting dried up, so there will be other stuff opening up. Keep in mind there's like what 50 or 60 fbs versus fcs games. That'll be a new market coming up at the end of august that you can, you know, take advantage of and just bet news as it's breaking now. Those would be the best roi decisions you can make right now. Uh, let's get rolling. Uh, oh, I do see this, uh, live. Uh, did you see this? Uh, 200 likes. Make sure you're hitting that like button. We'll live stream you building a dynasty at ball state I was gonna say well, yeah, you know what? 

16:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
yeah, I, I, especially after that anti-gaming, I've got to save the show on gaming where, uh, you know I know by uh, by a p. I didn't even know this is. This tells you how washed I've been in gaming. I don't even know what the current rev of the xbox was, that I needed to even play it, so uh I don't think you can do it on xbox one. No no, it's like the xbox, I think it's like xbox 25 and that the boy. This is, uh, this is uh, is it available? 

17:13 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I don't know what's playstation up to now, five, yeah, yeah, I was gonna say what's the, what's the lady? 

17:19 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't know that. That yeah I don't know you need to know about the, the gaming knowledge of this show. But yeah, I uh listen, I, if hey what, I'm the company man, whatever we got to do. If you know, if it's the the plays start going south, maybe I'll start. You know, live streaming, uh, you know me, me beating up on, uh, you know cal at late at night here and uh on a live stream. 

17:39 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So yeah, we're gonna find out. We got a post. Uh show meeting with moretto. He's gonna tell us hey, you got new, we got another new sponsor, ea sports. 

17:47 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah because zach's gonna have to scrub this episode from that. 

17:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, you're gonna have to scrub this one, folks, because I did not give a glaring review. I just I'm not gonna change it. I just I think it's sad when you're in your 40s. How about taking your son out to a place a game of catch? My goodness, I just think it's pathetic. If you're 20 and you're excited and you've never had the game released and you can't remember, by all means man, you should be pumped. But if you're in your 40s, sad, sad, sad stuff. 

18:30
Bill bills suck five, six, five in the chat like the over in the boise state. Georgia southern game. What do you think? Both offenses can put up points and run tempo. Yeah, I hear you on that. I just I'm a little leery of betting a lot of overs right now unless there's like a fundamental change that wasn't like properly priced. Like you know, like pittsburgh's gonna run tempo and you know coming off a slow tempo team right now. I would say I I'm not running the window to bet some overs just because I wait on weather, because I, oh, I got a great bet there and then you know the weather forecast come the weekends, you know 20 mile an hour winds for that game, and then, and then I got nothing. So I'm not there yet when it comes to betting a ton of totals and then I got nothing. 

19:04 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So I'm not there yet when it comes to betting a ton of totals, yeah no, this is one. I could see Georgia Southern having a little trouble with that Boise defense in terms of their system in there. 

19:17 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, they got a new quarterback. I don't know, and who knows, on the Boise State quarterback. I'm super high on Boise, but let's see them play Malachi, nelson or if the other kids even healthy. 

19:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Uh, they got some talent there, but I don't know yet yeah, it's just one of those you know high 50s number that I I'm not dying to play at the moment. So, um, I would say just the same same thoughts as you, just kind of neutral at the moment, not trying to get involved on that one. 

19:43 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I am involved on the side, though I laid it with the favorite. So I am big, big, big big on Boise this year. Rw fan in the chat. Thoughts on Coastal Carolina under six and a half wins. That was a market influencer today. You know who he is. Bet that, I don't disagree. I bet over five and a half, like six weeks ago. So you're gonna hear us say this. It doesn't sound like much, but you know people are gonna have position over five and a half. Under six and a half. A win is everything in a lot of this. So yeah, I don't have a problem with it. I made it six. 

20:19 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So yeah, I would. I mean, I, I know if, just to be full transparency, I I bet some uh over five and a half with with bp, uh, you know, a month and a half ago, two months ago, and then you know, bet some under six and a half uh, earlier today. So, and and a it is what it is. I, I agree with you where that, as you said, a full win is everything in in the, the regular season win market. So, um, it's just one. If you got in front of it or were part of it, you know, with the six and a half, would I chase it now or bet anything around a flat six, that type of thing. 

20:55
Um, it's I, I wouldn't go too heavy on the juice for that one. Um, so to me, to me, that would be one that, again, if you got into a little early, it didn't move that drastically, to be honest with you, um, but I think a lot of these are are more mature. So, um, yeah, I, I kind of prefer our over five and a half position, but, um, yeah, I don't, I don't blame you if you've got a still a six and a half at reasonable juice. 

21:22 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean it's tough because I mean I'm just looking at their schedule, I got like eight of their games priced a touchdown or less. So it's going to come down to that. I think the quarterback position is not going to be as bad as people are making it out to be. Keep in mind, I mean McCall didn't play most of last season, at least the last six games. The Vasco kid looked all right getting in that system. 

21:46
Am I a big fan of Beck long term? No, but I gotta be honest with you. They didn't have much to play for in that bowl game. They went across the world, halfway around the world to Hawaii. Where were what? 10 point underdogs in that game beat San Jose State start to finish the most part of that game. So I was impressed that they got that bowl win and their season wasn't lost after McCall got hurt. So, yeah, I'm okay with it. Uh, they are a little depth shy though. Uh, so they got to stay healthy. Uh there. Uh, zach in the uh in the chat question. Uh there about what a win is worth. A full win is worth, oh my good. Well, over 100 cents, in fact, probably closer to 150 cents. Yeah, that's how much a full win is worth uh, so it's pretty substantial. 

22:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean just even a little more when we're talking about those low bandwidth teams. Close look at carol, coastal carolina, right at six, is going to be a little less than, as brad said. Yeah, you know all those games power rated within a touchdown, so you're going to get more variance, even more when you're talking about a team like georgia, who got you know eight games. They've got no shot of losing. And then you know a three game window where that actually matters. So, yeah, definitely, buck 50 is kind of your average, but you got to shift it in terms of how much variance the season has or where it's at. 

22:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Couldn't have said it more. 

22:58
At the polar opposite ends of the spectrums, the Georgia, the Ohio States, the Oregon, oregon's, up top, a full. I mean imagine that the difference between 10 and a half and 11 and a half on those. And then at the bottom, uh, people are asking me today, like new mexico I thought you liked new mexico, you got him an underdog in every game. Well, there's a big difference between a one and a half win total and a two and a half win total pretty substantial. I, like my over one and a half, would not be betting at all. A two and a half win total, uh. So yeah, I couldn't have said it better myself. There at the ends of it might be more closer to 200 cents because there's just not very many games where it could swing just a few. Uh, d lee in the chat, brad, can you talk? Utsa game week one. Notice a massive difference in marking your numbers. I also saw circa finally moved up penn state 12. Did the boys fire again? Yeah, I can't believe that kept sitting there. That actually worried me. I'll attack the latter Penn State. I mean I fired on West Virginia plus 12. Not a big bet, but a bet that I made. So I haven't looked at Circa today. I've really been at the screen all day. 

24:04
New TSA I mean big overlay there, just because kenesaw state's their first fbs game. Uh, it's pretty substantial that I you know. Obviously I bet utsa in the game. I go back to last year where sam houston state was laying like three touchdowns to kenesaw state. I know kenesaw state almost won the game but UTSA would be laying three touchdowns against Sam Houston State. So yeah, that one that's pretty mispriced. I mean I'm closer to that 27 range there. You can do with that information what you want. Now Kennesaw State runs option, a little bit pistol option. They slow it down. I don't like playing points a lot in those situations but I I could only bet you utsa. I'm sure that's your biggest bet of week one, right? 

24:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
you know, you know I love me a good triple option, but I would lean that way. I do think also utsa, unlike a lot of g5 teams, kind of has that um has that size and depth in the trenches that I would say a lot of the G5 teams don't have to be able to counter the option. But I agree with you, good point. It's one of those where they can slow it down, ugly it up, but it's seen in Kennesaw State for a couple of years and Tennessee State, kennesaw State for a couple of years had the team to like a pretty I would call it an elite FBS level. The last couple though, especially last year, they weren't actually that great. They're terrible. 

25:41 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean their only three wins are against D2. And when I mean D2, I don't when I mean d2 I don't mean fcs, I mean d, division two, the lower level than even the fcs. I don't think they were trying, uh, so it's really tough to get a power rating. They were at, you're right, they were at a top 10 fcs level for several years. Then they dipped to like five and six and then last year I don't even think they tried, so, uh, very tough to get a market reading on them. 

26:04 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, because it's that one thing where you'd like you want to what what Sam Houston did when their first year they were coming up. It's like they said, all these guys so they don't want to lose a year of eligibility and then yeah, it's a very, very hard to price type of thing, but yeah, that was like their worst year in a long, long time. So yeah, I think just raw numbers you'd be like, oh, this should be a burial, but I think you're not totally sure what you're going to get from Kennesaw State in this game. 

26:33 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I haven't touched Kennesaw State's win total. It's at two and a half, even though I don't have them favored in any game, even though they play an fcs opponent too, I, I just there's. I don't. There's a little too much uncertainty there for me. Ideally in the chat. 

26:46
I did not know this. This must have just happened today. And if daily you're still in the chat, when did this drop westgate massive game of the year menu? Did you know about this? No, I was. I've been. I heard it was gonna happen last week and I've been checking every day today. Of course I didn't look at it. I'm sure they gave out like 200 games. I have not looked at it yet. I will be diving into that as soon as this damn show is over. I say that wink, wink kidding, but I will be taking a look at that because there will be a lot of urgent numbers, because I'm sure they'll have probably at least 50 games that haven't even hit the board yet. So I'm not there yet I do. I'll say this, and people get after me. I don't care, I, I notice things. Uh, they never release those until the guide comes out. Never, it's always. The day my guide comes out is the day, those gets released Three straight years, this being the third. 

27:44
See how I tweeted that today and all of a sudden, those things are up, coincidence, I don't know Well look at that. I was going to say here they won't say no. I'm telling you three straight years, within 24 hours of me tweeting or sending out the guide, those get popped up. So I think that's funny. You don't believe me? I was just telling somebody about this last week. You can ask them. 

28:13 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, I like that. They have those posted on there. We'll have to see. Yeah, I haven't looked at it either. To be honest with you, I'm sure there'll be some. 

28:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'll tell you what I haven't looked at it either to be honest with you, I'm sure there'll be some. I'll tell you what. I'll tweet some out. So you know what I'll tweet out a ticket or two tonight. How about that? 

28:31 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
There you go. 

28:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Look for that. Thank you for that. Thank you for that for reminding me on that. A line in the chat. I would also love to hear thoughts we gave them on Mississippi State. So a line in the chat. I would also love to hear thoughts we gave him on Mississippi state. We think it should be for shop around. Over three and a half, I think it's fine. Under four and a half, I think it's fine. I don't have we'll be favoring him five games. I don't. I will say that I don't have him favoring five games. I I don't have. I'm down on Arizona state this year but I I don't have him favored on the road at Arizona State. I got him like a two-and-a-half-point underdog there. Eastern Kentucky, toledo, umass those three games underdogs at home against Florida and still an underdog against Arkansas. So yeah, be careful with that one. Ryan T in the chat. 

29:17
Thoughts on ULM under one-and-a-half conference wins. That was a market I bet a little into in the last week. I saw DK put these up. I could see that the only favorite role for UL Monroe is the FCS game against Jackson State. So I don't know if I can see two conference wins. I will say their entire roster is different. A lot of portal guys, a lot of juco's could be wild. I was pretty down on Texas state last year and look what happened with them One year later. I'm betting them to make the playoffs. So it's these rosters that completely change overnight. I mean, you can look really sharp or really stupid, so I I'm kinda I did not bet ULMs win total yet and I didn't even bet the conference win total. That's not one that I made. 

30:10 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I saw a friend of the show was on the ULM season total under today. 

30:13 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Really, who was that yeah? 

30:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
And hold on. I'm just trying to make sure. Are you sure I could be wrong? 

30:21 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Oh, maybe your friend, not a friend of mine. You sure I could be wrong, maybe your friend not friend of mine. 

30:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, I could be, I could be wrong here, but, um, again, just conference win wise, it's gonna be real tough. I, I don't. I don't hate the under one and a half play there. I will tell you that, um, even even in their non-con, um, jackson state, obviously you know talented, they're gonna have a rough one. We're off go of it. So, yeah, I would. I don't hate the under one and a half there, or, uh, you know, if you can find, you know, two and a half in terms of, uh, full season wins, because, yeah, one and a half. 

30:59 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, on conference wins, that's good. I would lean under two and a half too. I mean, look at how that's priced. That's priced like two. And again, I'm telling you, their only favorite role is non-conference Jackson State. So that's a good one. I did not see that. So, ryan, I think that's thumbs up. I wish I would have gotten to that. I'm sure it's gone now, the way we advertise and people move our stuff. I wish I would have gotten to that. I'm sure it's gone now, the way we advertise and people move our stuff. 

31:25
Ryan, in the chat, brad bullish why am I bullish? On ball state Bet, the board was pessimistic. I don't know if I'm, you know, bullish, I just you know markets painted four, four and a half and I circa open three and a half. I bet over three and a half. That's I didn't overthink it there. I mean by the time Circa, I think, posted their season win totals. It was already, in my opinion, starting to get to a mature market where 10 books are already up. And if it's painted four and a half and sometimes you've got to respect that, some of the sharper books when they make a little bit of a line like that other instances I'm like nah, you guys shouldn't be shading that like that, you shouldn't be shading a full win off market at that point. 

32:08
So yeah, I bet over three and a half on ball state. You're right, I don't. I don't like. I think this is Mike news last year. Defense takes a big step back, but I think there'll be okay Offensively. 

32:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, again, I agree, I agree, I think that they definitely won't have the same level of defense, um, no, but yeah, I don't know, I just it seems like that that's just not able to replicate at the MAC level, um, but again, I'm not, I don't think it'll be a total fall off, uh, and, as you said, offense may be a little bit improved. But they're kind of in that you know, there's like six, seven teams in the MAC, kind of in that middle of the MAAC mixer that I would just put them in where you could see you know what. I could see four wins, I could see seven, and I feel like that about like five or six MAAC teams. So that's kind of one to throw them. I wish I had stronger takes there for you on the MAAC, but it feels like there's kind of that jumble of I don't even think the top's any good this year yeah, that's true. 

33:05
Yeah, no, that's fair. I mean, the whole conference is one big, uh, you know, one big dump. 

33:09 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, it's bad and kent state and akron are terrible, but they're better than last year. So I you're right, it's a big jumble so I could look like an idiot when it's all sitting down and that one or like you mentioned, I think there's some variance with some of these teams. That's why in the mac I think I bet five different conference futures that was the most of any conference because I I would not be a bit surprised like a central michigan or a western michigan or someone like that ends up winning the mac this year. Uh, a lot of parity there. Uh, c4 see again. Okay, it's shaded, it's four and a half shaded under there. At FanDuel, again, I bet over three and a half. That's the only reason why If it was four at that particular book, I wouldn't have bet it. So I'm going to chat. And again, when a half wins worth $0.70 and people are like well, your money's tied up, man, I'm not going to make a lot of bets where something's off like $0.70, even during the season. So that's why I'm not afraid to let my money be tied up. I don't bet baseball, I don't bet basketball, so this is all I'm betting. So that's why I'm not afraid for them to have my money tied up a little bit. Tom in the chat. 

34:13
Power five teams with the widest range of outcomes factors to focus on new quarterback, new coach joining new conference. I mean, yeah, he's hitting all of them here. Breaks falling off Clemson yeah, I think some of the new conference stuff. You know we talked about the Big 12. We just talked about the MAAC being wide open. Big 12 is the power conference. That's wide open. There's a wide range there. But yeah, I mean portal's like everything. I mean I tend to take a more pessimistic tone to the portal but I mean UCF could be a high variance team this year where I bet them under the win total but also bet them to win the conference. Hopefully that makes some sense there because I think they have a high upside with the transfers they brought in, like KJ Jefferson. But I also don't trust Malzahn completely and when you're relying on transfers, I mean it can be hit or miss. So I think that's just the new thing. When you're talking to wide range of outcomes, I mean it's all, but it comes out of the portal at this point. 

35:10 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, no, I agree, I think we both lean toward being negative to teams that that portal. I think the data has kind of proven that out teams that are heavy, heavily reliable on the the portal aren't aren't the teams that are going to over perform. However, there are going to be test cases, as texas state we've mentioned a bunch of times last year where it all comes together and you, you know you kind of far exceed your expectation and a team that you might be two touchdowns, you know, two and a half, three touchdowns off on um. So I would get I mean, I only advise there would be kind of limiting exposure there. But if, if you've put all your exposure across, you know, evenly across teams that have been heavy on the portal um, and lean towards the negative or the unders or what, that I think you'd come out all right. 

35:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You're just going to get burned on a couple absolutely um 20 mc20 in the chat, good clv on most, all of them, but with a few months more prep. Do you guys feel any differently on any of the early bets given out, trying to think I think we did you and I did a pretty good job? I don't think I have any regrets on any of this stuff and we'll have to get a spreadsheet together and go through it been. 

36:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You know he's been candid todaying all summer, so I don't know if he's got it together yet, but uh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, we've given out about 10. 

36:30 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
But my goodness, we gave out Clemson under, looks good, duke under, arizona under, michigan State under. I think the only over yeah gave out was maybe Stanford last week was Texas I I love, I love my personal portfolio I. If there's a show per portfolio, I we can't get much better than what we've been given out. That's probably why some people are pissed at us. The stuff we were given out, uh, but uh I I. Is there something that you would regret? I don't. 

37:01 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
And I I'll tell it like I'm not sunshine and rainbows types of guy. 

37:05 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'll tell you if I, if I sucked on some, I don't think anything. We've given out as the best bets been gone the other way, has it? 

37:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, I agree, I agree Anything that you know we've given on the show. Now there are a few head to heads between us that I might like to have back by a number, you know that. But uh, stuff that we've given out for the people on the show, that no, I think everything's obviously moved the way we wanted to. And I, I again, I, just as you, the ones you listed, the ones I have off my head there's nothing I'd be like. No, I'd buy out of that or cash out of that or anything. 

37:34 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So, um, did you give out cal? 

37:37 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
yeah, yeah, we had stanford over Cal under um and I'm with both of those. 

37:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So, yeah, I, if you've been a long time listener of hit the books this off season, you're in pretty good shape. We always think that, but I, I'm telling you you're in pretty good shape with the wind total market right now. Uh, according to Zach, we will have an official sheet. He doesn't have a, a, a TBA on that, but, uh, we will have a sheet of integrity soon on that and we'll be doing conference previews soon too. I know we keep promising that we will get to that. 

38:14
Uh, mason, the chat chats active. Let me say this Uh, our chats not playing video games right now, cause it's active. So, thank you guys for tuning in and watching when you could be playing video games like everybody else. All the losers, mason, in the chat Thoughts I'm just going to, I'm just going to roll with it today. Right, might as well, lean into it. That's what I've been told. Lean into it, take a position, lean into it, go, go wide into the spectrum. Uh, mason in the chat thoughts on hawaii over four and a half. As of yesterday they were uh, over four and a half minus 150 on. Uh, dk. Uh, circa five and a half minus 125. Uh, I'm on the over four and a half train. I have made it an over four and a half bet and, uh, you know they got two fcs games that I think they'll win. They'll win a couple conference games. So I like Hawaii. This is Timmy Chang's best team. I like that they haven't quit down the stretch of either the last two seasons. I got them at five and seven. 

39:14 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree with you. I think if you can find a decently juiced four and a half, that would be the way I play it. And you know what, if there's a team I said that I know, I know they suckered me in last year, um, but there's the team that maybe that has some upside from the, the mid tier, the bottom tier of the, the mountain yeah, I would tend to agree. I think you could. I think they're the only one I'd put in that category. And again, I'm not More about Colorado State. You know I just man, I have not. I know that was like the sexy pick with the Norvell. He's going to get it going in that it hasn't. They need a big jump because I will tell you it hasn't looked great so far. So I mean to be honest with you and I know their totals. I think they're six and a half, kind of on market total six and a half. 

40:14 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I haven't bet it yet. I'd lean under. 

40:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I would agree. I'm not there yet on that, so to me, even though we're talking about, you know, I'd rather bet hawaii number at hawaii at the prices than I would colorado state, to put it like that I agree. 

40:27 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And hawaii just beat colorado state, win bowl eligibility last year, final game of the season. And if you want just 20 minutes and watch the last five, six minutes of that game, watch is. It's very entertaining. I just tweeted it out like a month ago how ridiculous that the the ending was. But Hawaii beat Colorado state. Colorado state had everything to play for. Hawaii really didn't quite beat them. Couldn't, couldn't agree more. I mean I Norvell seems like a little aloof. That stuff about a Fowler Nicolosi the transfer, kansas state going to pay him 600 grand or whatever. He just seems he's a little weird man. 

41:00 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Uh, I've seen that guy play and that'd be about uh 580 000 too much for him, that's great. 

41:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I just it didn't make sense. They got avery johnson. I, I just, I, I don't know, uh, that that was a little goofy there. I I'm not buying him under six and a half. Well, we might come back to that later in the show. I'm just thinking. Guy asks what do you guys think about laying eight with Colorado's first game? Colorado might want to make a big, bold statement early on. I originally took North Dakota State. The more I think about it, the more I think Colorado's going to end up being the right side there. I've not played it back yet. Full disclosure. 

41:46 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Have you gotten anything yet? No, I haven't gotten involved on it yet. Uh, I know I was less bullish on that game than you with the north dakota state side. However, we we've got a hit on it today because I I argued with them for 30 minutes today oh my god, yeah, get on it. 

41:59
I'm anxious, anxious All right, the Travis Hunter Heisman. I mean, I told them like I would book, like I don't see, I just don't see it. I'll put it that way, I don't. I mean and he's talking to me about the Charles Woodson it was 30 years ago. It was 30 years ago Nobody, people ran the wishbone. Then Nebraska won a national championship running the triple option and when Charles Woodson was winning the Heisman, so like get out of here with that. I don't, I listen, I don't. 

42:31
But if you were giving me like 200 to 1, but Travis, travis Hunter on a and I know you're Mr Kyle, mr Kyle, but like on a team that what's, what's the ceiling for this Colorado to seven wins, um is gonna win the Heisman. He would need like video game type numbers, uh, like that you know my ball state ea sports type numbers to even conversation. And uh, and him at 50 to 140 to one. No, thank you, I don't see it. Um, I wouldn't even, I wouldn't even think about it under 100. So I, I just I don't see this. Also, I don't think he was caught like streaming trashing other players on the team, like yesterday. I don't think CFB voting media really loves Deion, his son and Travis Hunter. You know that combo of play. I don't think they're very endearing to the voter base. 

43:25 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Um, so I'm not on that, I'm out and I'm way out he wanted me to argue with you on this with a pro travis hunter. Take, I'm just like no way, man. First off I was like what, what? I was wondering what the position you were gonna have. Like you're a pro hunter and he's like no, he's uh, knish is anti-travis hunter. Well, that's the correct take. 

43:49
I mean, I think it's a five and seven football team so well, I mean, when's the last time somebody won the heisman with a losing record? Paul horning? I mean 70 years ago, come on, it ain't happening. I mean I again, I don't think colorado wins again. I don't think Colorado wins Everyone's, I just don't see it. And I'll say another thing when they start losing games and they will, because there's not a lot of slam dunk wins on the schedule they're going to be in a fight for their life every week. In my opinion, good or bad Gets nicked up. He's got to play a bunch of snaps because the games are close. Gets nicked up. I mean it ain't like he's got another year of eligibility. Next year is the NFL, I'd be thinking NFL draft. So I don't think he plays as many snaps as last year. I don't think they win enough games. I hate that bet. In fact, if he moves the market so much and one of the books gives me a no, a good price in the no. 

44:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm betting the no. It's fine because I said that almost to him verbatim. I'd rather have the no price if Circle puts it up on that one, just because I agree. And especially, as you said, that's a team and that's a coaching staff and a couple guys where if they start losing, I think it totally goes off the rails, kind of how it did that. Where, like, deion's probably going to leave His son's definitely both his son and Travis Hunter are definitely leaving after this year. Where, like, if they go, if it goes bad early, I think it goes real bad and the ceiling I don't think it's high enough to even get them in the conversation. I mean, what scenario? Does this team win nine or ten games? 

45:25 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
all right, you bet over five and a half against me but but the over five? 

45:30 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
what am I? 

45:31 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I didn't take you know, like I don't, it's gonna have seven, eight interceptions and a thousand yards receiving I. 

45:41 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I just I don't even know if that does it like I don't know, I don't think so so I just I'm, I did not like that I told him that too, yeah, and I I. I'm usually. He's a guy who I've made me money on the eyes, you know, so I usually like his heisman take, I think. Outside of that, I agree with the bets so far. I just that, that's one. I was like no, no way. 

46:06 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I love his Gabriel bet and uh, that one moved the market loved it. So if he's listening, I know he is. He's one of our 65 very trustworthy uh listeners and viewers. Appreciate you, thanks for watching us again today. We love you, but uh, we do not love Travis Hunter and the Heisman bet. 

46:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Also, as you said, his Heisman bets tend to always you can still find Hunter at some prices out there that were there before it. So I think that tells you a little. Birdie action I think that's the only one that he's given out in years that you can still get at none of those prices. Or better, uh, action that, uh that I think that's the only one that uh he's given out in years that hasn't that you can still get at none of those prices or better. So uh, I, I, if I was in the trading department, I'd say give me all the, give me all the action you want, I'll have the best travis hunter price in the market where the gabriel move was. 

46:58 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, very sizable, very quickly. 

47:02
Yes, and that was just like a confirmation for everybody. Oh, we better hit it. It's now or never. On gabriel uh egg in the chat. We're not gonna I'll make this an awesome, we're not gonna get to all this chat stuff today. So I apologize, guys. I mean you guys were very active, uh egg in the chat. What do you guys make of circa having julian saying 25 to 1 for eisman? I, I don't know, I just think it's. I don't know, I just think it's. I don't know I'm you heard anything? I haven't heard anything yet. I'm too busy reading EAA, ea sports player rating stories. Uh, I, I haven't heard anything yet that he beat out Will Howard. I didn't see it with my own eyes in the spring game. I didn't see it from anybody there. So I, I, I didn't see it from anybody there. So I have like 10 Heisman bets. None of them are from Ohio State. 

47:44 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I swear to God, on the show we talked when he was like 150 or 201 or something months and months ago. I think you liked it at that one right and if I go through my pending, I think I sprinkled it at that price. With that said, I still don't think it may be. Listen, maybe somebody got some info, went to the place they could get the most liquidity on it and hit it. Maybe it's just you know people liking that. You know, if he does, just the chances, if he does get the job, they bet some higher prices because, well, howard doesn't give you I mean, even he's a guy who I think is solid, but he's not going to give you a Heisman-type numbers season. 

48:25
I'd still be surprised if they went into this year where he was the start. I mean, I don't see it. I'll put it this way. I don't see them starting the season with Sane, which again makes his campaign that much where, if you're going to be a couple weeks behind, um, so yeah, I'm not. I don't know I would. That's, it's, it wasn't me. I'll say that I liked it at like the 250 to one or something when we were talking about it months ago, not the 25 to one we got uh, celebrities in the chat, berry horses in chat. 

49:03 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
He likes Liberty, conference USA, the Berry shoe. Yeah, look at that. I do too. I like it and I laid it. I made that bet. I just think obviously very likely that they're playing in conference USA championship game. Obviously it'd be a home game. Very likely probably a double digit home favorite, anything less than 200. Good to go. I, I bet a better price than even that. There's not. There's not really. What are the losable games on their schedule? And conference? They get both of the contenders sort of speak. Both of them are at home. I mean they're just generally speaking Liberty. I mean you're just talking money. They have 2X, 3x, maybe even some levels, 5x their salary cap compared to everybody else in Conference USA. It's that big of a disparity between them and the rest of the conference. 

49:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So I agree with Barry let's kill two birds with one stone, cause I saw somebody ask about them four to one to make the playoff. I like the conference. I agree with the, the Barry shoe and BP over here. I would lay the conference bet before, because I think there's a scenario where they go undefeated and don't get in because the schedule is so trash and the fact that they you know they got absolutely blasted last year. Uh, when then people remember that? 

50:22 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
they have to go undefeated or they have no shot. Half state would be a decent feather in their cap, provided after he wins the sun belt yeah, so, yeah, I, I. 

50:34 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So to me, I don't want to take four to one when I think like there's a shot. Uh, four to one when I think like there's a shot that they might, they could even like to me. If you're 11 and one Boise or something like that, I I don't know I could see Liberty getting left out. So I, if you're going to bet them, I'd lay the juice on the conference before I'd look at the playoff Boom. 

50:56 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Good job, mary horse. Agree with that, ryan. In the chat Opinions on Boston College over 4.5 minus 150-ish North Texas 5.5, 140-ish Lean BC over 4.5. I made that bet but I wouldn't lay 150, just being honest. I'm not bad. In North Texas. Yet Another team, north Texas. This is year two under a coach and they got 55 new guys coming in in year two. They've overturned the roster twice. I mean I don't know anybody. They don't even know who Chandler Morris is going to be their quarterback. I mean he's. He just got on the on on campus in the last like two weeks. I just too many questions and answers there. I I would be more pessimistic with North Texas than B and BC. 

51:39 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Me too that's funny because that's where I was right was going to go with it. I would not go back to my Twitter feed from two years ago I'm not a Chandler Morris guy From him that first half against Colorado when he looked like crap and I had a big position on TCU in that game. 

51:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
The third-string quarterback that came in at the end looked better. Yeah, yeah. 

52:01 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So I just I don't think he's any good. I think he was overrated recruit and it hasn't put in the time to get better. Maybe he's got some, I don't know awfully doesn't take the game, so I don't know what it is, but I don't like him as your, your QB going forward. So to be honest with you, I'd lean the other way on North Texas and agree with BP a little bit to the lean of the over on BC, but nothing significant, Um, especially now that it's a little juicy. 

52:27 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Zach in the chat thoughts on Luther Burton four to one to win the Blitnikoff at a local book. I'm not bet them. I. I'll refer to you Cause I know you're in touch with franchise on those I. I I don't know on that one. 

52:38 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't love taking and again, I love his talent, love his skill. The problem with the awards is betting the short guy on the is really like you can get some people out of the woodwork for receiver and running back that can like put up just stupid numbers. And so Ollie Gordon last year, running back Exactly, exactly where it's like okay, where, where does. Now he's putting up you know 800 yards a game, so at a four to one like, and it's one of those where, like you know, he could have a good year and have like a couple of games where it's like you know three catches, 60 yards and a touchdown, whereas some other guy from you know Eastern Kentucky, he's putting up, like you know, 8,000 yards or something. So I don't love playing the short prices on the awards, especially preseason. So that's one Um, but I didn't didn't really touch those. 

53:28 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Couldn't agree more. I'll be looking fall camp, maybe reading some tea leaves. I mean looking out front of the Missouri's team, cody Schrader being in the mix out of left field. Give me an expansive menu on some of them and let me bet some guys that, like you know, 50 to one or greater. Uh, that that that are. You know I liked what I saw in spring, like what I'm hearing and reading in fall camp. Uh, rw fan 23 in the chat, just a few more guys and we've got to wrap it up and we promise we'll. You know, ask it again or ask it on Twitter. We'll get to you. Uh, tennessee under 9.5, minus 155, still worth it. 

53:59
I wouldn't make that bet. I don't like 10-2 Tennessee. I obviously don't think they'll win at Georgia. You know I think they'll be a short home underdog to Alabama, even though I mean they could win that game. Obviously I don't think NC State's a slam dunk. I think they'll be. I have bet Oklahoma and laid points with Oklahoma in that week four game. So I mean I think they're going to be. They're clearly right now in the books an underdog in three games. Is NC State a slam dunk? They've never had great success with Florida. I like under nine and a half. 

54:38 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, this is kind of one I like the team better than I like the schedule, cause I agree with you, they've got, I mean that, that at Georgia it's almost like you're starting the year with a loss in pocket there and then having to go 10 of 11 to, you know, hit the over there on the nine and a half. So, yeah, that's it's. I would lean that way too. Not, not that's it's. I would lean that way to, not one that I'd want to like, delay that kind of juice to get involved in, but I could only play the under. So it hasn't been one I've actually bet, but would lean that way if you get. But that's this. Another one. If you gave me, you know, eight and a half, I'd I'd take over. So I think nine is the right number there and it's kind of priced in there. 

55:16 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I have laid 160 in that RWA fan. I just looked at my portfolio so I laid a heavy number on that. Tennessee. I mean I made it like closer to. I know there's eight and a half, nine and a half in the market. I wouldn't be closer to that, forget nine. I'd be closer to the eight and a half range. I like that one quite a bit. I think NC state's live in week two in that game. Uh, zach's got some records, records. Uh. 

55:36
Conference previews last year, roi, how about this? 17 on our conference previews? 22 and 21. I went too bad there. I. I think we hit some, a lot of conference winners, a lot of over a lot of season win totals. So I know we had a losing record during the season, but previews were good. We were uh, we were active, look at that. And that was late in the summer too. That's not like uh. So you can see there that's late july. A lot of them, uh. So those will be coming up. 17 percent, roi. And what is the s&p 500? Historically 10, we're 17. So yeah, we don't mind here and hit the books. We don't mind holding up the money when you're getting almost two to one payout compared to the S&P 500. So, yeah, hold up my money when you got a 17% ROI. 

56:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Who needs a hedge fund when you got HDB baby? 

56:28 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, we do live for this and you have more of a betting background, or at least a longer one than me Obviously a bigger one because you got more liquidity than me. But I have been living in this preview stuff now for like 15 years. I wish I should have been in the betting, but I can break down a team in the offseason. I can tell you that Sometimes my in-season stuff doesn't go as well as planned, but it is what it is. Let's keep it going. Chuck in the chat, surprised we didn't see the minus 20 and a half get taken out. Michigan laying that versus Fresno on the Tedford News. Yeah, I mean, what's the head coach? We're at half point, point. Yeah. 

57:08 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It's a little To me, I think especially the head coach it's more the sum of the part in terms of what we talked about like a regular season win as opposed to like an individual game basis. Man you're on fire couldn't say yeah, we're, we're just, we're going back and forth. 

57:22 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
This is, this is like uh yeah, that was a good, very good point. I'd rather that I couldn't have said it better. The sum over time the coach becomes worth more and more and more individual game. I mean, look no further. One thing I loved about covid was man, we got a really good stuff. We've never seen before Saban's in's out for a game against like Georgia, where it matters. I mean that market only moved like a point. We're talking Nick Saban in the most important game of the year. He's in, he's out, he's in. I mean we can see the market moving on something like that. And that was only like a point. So yeah, head coaches, individual games just aren't worth that much. Much. Uh, egg in the chat. Oh, this isn't going to be good to you know. Start to close out the show michigan missed the playoffs minus 130. 

58:09 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
What's your thoughts on that? Yeah, well, yeah, he'd listen, but the early buzz in the, you know, around the the building is uh, things, things are gonna be uh. I do worry about quarterback, I will say that, but um that's one. 

58:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You gotta wait another one, let's see what fall camp's going I can't tell you right now, after a slow start, the michigan wolverines are officially on fire in recruiting. So I I do, I mean my father. There ain't nothing else going on right now unless you like video games recruiting uh is doing. 

58:38 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Well, just, this is two in the weeds, but uh, they totally re one one hardball left. Hardball was not a, it's funny, because he had some like weirdo recruiting stories of him, like spending a night at a kid's house, going climbing in a tree. He wasn't that great at running a recruiting department. They've, they've revamped it, uh, and they're reaping the benefits pretty early there. So, um, and also word on the street is uh, some michigan michigan wasn't exactly known for being an il factory under harbaugh and uh, they're, they've changed so, and again, not saying it's texas a&m, but just saying that, uh, they're. 

59:18
They're okay, paying market rate, if you know what I mean I like that, I, I like that. 

59:23 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So, uh, yeah, I. Just why do you follow recruiting? Because, man, it's kind of reading the t leaves. Maybe it does. Obviously doesn't affect this year, but man, you start seeing stuff down the road, uh, setting it up. So I'll tell you another real quick. Out there, everyone, oh, nick save and gone alabama. The recruiting's gonna take a hit. Have you seen what kaylan devore's been doing on the? I'll tell you another real quick. 

59:39
Everyone, oh, nick Saban, gone Alabama. The recruiting's going to take a hit. Have you seen what Kalen DeBoer's been doing on the recruiting trail? Woo Roll tide. They're not going away, folks. No, they're not going to win six national titles in 15 years. But if you think they're going back to eight and four, you better get your kicks in this year. They're going back to eight and four. I don't mean you better get your kicks in this year because uh, after, after this year, it's back to. They're gonna be a tough out, to say the least. Spammy sosa in the chat. Olympic bets are you gonna make any appearances on that? Have you heard anything on that? When does that start next week? 

01:00:15 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
uh, I think about two, yeah, two weeks or so here for the. I'll try to have some to be able to give out on next week's show. I've been hitting, I've got my network working on it here, so I'll be running around filling some Olympic bets, but yeah, I'll try and have some on the show. Also, I saw somebody Chuck asked about Home Run Derby. I got nothing. I was trying to get a couple people under me to work on it and nobody put in the effort for it today. So unfortunately don't have nothing on the Derby. 

01:00:47 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That's tonight. Yep, that shows you how much I've been paying attention. Wow, that used to be something. It really used to be. Yeah, a lot of used to be's Fabulous one in the chat, and we'll wrap it up with this one or the next one. 

01:01:04
I know we faded Iowa a lot last year, given their schedule, heavily juiced over 7.5, or mildly priced over 8, look appealing. Have we talked about this? I'm not there, man, and let's just I tweeted today. Teams you know, these are the teams I have favored in every game this year. These are the teams I have favor in 11 game, 11 or 12 games. This year I have iowa favor in 11 or 12 games. However you put that into, you know, give them, you know, their three-point favor in this game. You give them so much of a percentage of a win for that game. It's still, even with them being favored in 11 of 12 games comes to like 7.6. So, no, I'm not betting over seven and a half. I earlier, uh, bet under eight earlier this summer. I'm not buying iowa. I'm not there. Are you? 

01:01:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I know you're not oh, no, no, no, no, I'm just, uh, the tent is blowing me up to you know, add on my phone here about uh, the trolling on show. But no, I'm like, listen, if you want an anti-Joey K team that I'm and I know people are buying, this is one that I tell you what. I will probably be looking because I know some others in the market have been betting over on this. I'm going to be probably looking, you know, right before the season starts, to play back under and I get the schedule sets and listen, if you do as you're saying with, with some of the power in the schedule, it's just the team that I overall, the roster, the program, the quarterback room. 

01:02:31
I don't believe in Um and I think they're, they're due for big regression after last season. Um and, as you said, like Kate Mack. Kate Mack, I don't even know if he's going to like, I don't even know if he's going to be healthy enough to start the season. I don't like the Cole Sullivan kid, I don't like anybody that have an offense, like one guy, that one receiver that got from Ohio State, the one transfer, yeah he's okay, yeah. 

01:02:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
The Shea, if he's healthy, a tight end. I don't think the offensive line is anywhere. What it's been five years ago, this is in the weeds. But they get further and further removed from their strength coach which was, which was a top five strength coach in college, and it just you see stuff like they can't run. The iowa can run the football, at least offensively. Now they can't run the ball and and we saw it with stanford had an elite strength guy. The guy under hardball stayed on for like the first five, six years under david shaw. Then, for whatever reason, got fired. Oh, what's happened to stanford football? Well, year after year after year, without that top five strength coach in the country, you started to see they couldn't run the football. They weren't as physical as they they were used to be. So, uh, keep that in your back of your mind when you're looking at that. Especially in today's day and age, strength coaches are everything totally right that's what it's like year three or four without that strength coach. 

01:03:42
I know he's a racist and whatever, but he was pretty good. 

01:03:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I spent. When you want to be a program, like in Iowa or what happened at Michigan, when you want to be a physical trenches with like, that makes all the difference, especially especially at the program like Iowa, where you've got to take these three-star linemen and turn them into like 20, 21-year-old guys who are maulers and that If you don't have the strength program right, when you can't recruit the highest level, you're not going to be where you want. 

01:04:11 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
What's our best bet? Is it Liberty? 

01:04:15 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Do you want to? Oh, we could steal it from the Barry shoe there. You could jump in there. What do you got? No, what you were saying earlier on the Colorado State. 

01:04:26 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, the Colorado State. I like both Colorado State under six and a half wins. Yeah, boom, I made it six. I'm not buying, I didn't like with the press conference from this past week. He just seems goofy. I know they got some talent there, but nicola follower nicolosi's got to seriously clean up the interceptions. They don't have the tight end like they did last year. They really the one guy on defense that was elite kamara on the defensive end. He's gone. Uh, I obviously think they lose to colorado in week two or week three or week three. I think that one is. Uh, yeah, I, I like hawaii more a little bit. Uh, I think san diego state would be a little bit better than expected. So, and obviously they're still behind the poisee states of the world in conference. 

01:05:08
So yeah oh, colorado state under six and a half wins. Love it. Oh, here we go what is this? Is this the one is the one, oh one year anniversary of you, uh, with the mexico state. 

01:05:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
What a call there by rw fab. I mean r dub. I gotta give you credit that it actually is the one year anniversary of uh, the, the, the aggie nation, new mexico. Uh, las cruces. Uh, bro, that was a fun. I tell you that was a fun one. Um, I'll say it, don't think they're gonna to repeat this year. Now, I'm not sure they're getting the title game again this year after this offseason. No, they're not. Hope you enjoyed it last year in Las Cruces. Yeah. 

01:05:49 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I don't have a lot of 40-1s this year in conference. Have you bet any of those? Do you have? 

01:05:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
them. No, I remember we had them, Literally the night came. I remember talking to him like man, this sucks. 

01:06:01 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
It does suck. Heisman market conference went to. What is going on Sucks. But what doesn't suck is our Colorado State under six and a half win total. Best bet on today's show Also doesn't suck is if you've been watching us all offseason. I've told you I'm just not, you know, talking us up. The portfolio looks really good at this point. Kanisha has been looking good Dapper. Look at that hairdo. 

01:06:29 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So, after we a lot of positive reviews last week which I'd much appreciate, some people in the DM. Thank you very much. 

01:06:34 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I pre I know, hey, I noticed it right off the bat. I was like whoa, who the hell is this Summer glow? 

01:06:41 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
up baby Ready, Especially with the new sponsor that might be upcoming here On the way up got to be looking the best, looking sharp. 

01:06:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right For the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish. For producer extraordinaire, zach Phillips, I'm merely Brad Powers. Thank you to all the questions and comments. Sorry, we didn't get to them all. We got next week. We'll see you next week 5pm Eastern, same channel you just watch hit the books, part of the hammer betting network.