00:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right. Special edition of Hit the Books. We are officially starting our conference previews for the upcoming 2024 season, which is fast approaching. We are now less than a month away from week zero. Before we talk, mid-american Conference, our favorite teams, the teams flying under the radar, the most overrated, underrated sleeper teams, best bets you name it. Before we get into any of that, before I get to the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish, let's talk about our new sponsor here at Hit the Books. It is none other than you might have heard of this book. It's called FanDuel, obviously one of the market leaders when it comes to not only market share but offerings. And let's talk about some of the offerings and why we're excited to have FanDuel as a partner for sponsoring not only these conference previews but hit the books all season long. 

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02:34 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Oh, baby, best book, best book in the country. And so, yeah, no, I, I'm a fan duel, better myself a fan duel user, a fan duel lover. Shout out to also the great people at FanDuel Motor City Detroit. I love the group crew down there. So, yeah, great to have them on and great to be talking about a conference that I know is near and dear to both of our hearts. Two Maxion men, one Maxion gradsman, which is you. 

03:04
I was an honorary Western Michigan. I spent so much time at Western Michigan's camp, I think they gave me an honorary degree, but I didn't get a real one. But, yeah, midwest action, baby, I don't know, maybe not the best rendition of the Mac that's ever taken place. I think, in terms of what, uh, what we've seen happen now with the transfer portal and everything it's, it's a, it's a tough gig running, running these back programs these days, uh, and, and I think it'll be, uh, it'll be quite competitive though on the on a Tuesday and Wednesday and, uh, when it's 30 degrees and snowy, I think we're going to have some, some, uh, quite competitive games all throughout the conference this year yeah, I concur number one. 

03:47 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think the max down, especially down I mean I'm getting aging myself but definitely down from where it was when I was attending bg, when you had, like, urban meyer was the head coach when I was at bg, uh, and then not only that, but rothlisberger was quarterbacking and my ohio uh to Toledo teams were good with Gradkowski, I mean it's just Pennington, randy Moss, marshall, I mean it literally was not exaggerating For those that are new to college football. There was a time period when the MAAC you could have said was the best small conference in college football. 

04:18
Talent-wise MAAC. I mean, it was just a fun conference, no longer the same. Those days are long gone and they're not coming back, folks. Uh, transfer portals hit this conference pretty hard. Uh, there's no really dominant teams, to say the least. But I'll tell you, what we'll do on these previews is we're not going to deep dive every team and we might mention every team maybe even if it's only for 30 seconds, but we'll always start at the top of the conference and I'm going to start with my power ratings. 

04:44
I think the best team, at least on paper, coming into this season. Not a big surprise. Maybe you're thinking I'm going to say another team, but I think they lost too much. I am actually going to go with the defending champ. I think there's just as far as stability in the program. I'm going with Miami. Ohio, who won the Mac last year, pulled a big upset over Toledo as a touchdown plus underdog in that mac game. But I like what they got coming back, provided gabbert can stay healthy. Big assumption, I think you know. Meet some meat and potatoes of the team pretty good. I like the salopec kid at linebacker. Obviously he's the mac defensive player of the year. Uh, then you know, chuck martin's been there forever. Uh, not a dominant mac team, not going to be confused with those Roethlisberger Miami teams from 20 years ago, but a team that I think deserves to be the Mac favorite, at least on paper. Heading into the season, what say you? 

05:33 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You know what I think we're. We're in lockstep here. I agree with you. Know, from a roster point, is there a ton separating them in Toledo? Not really, but, as you said, they've got Gabbert coming back. Hopefully he's healthy and I just I like Chuck Martin as a coach better than Jason Candle. It's kind of a program that they've run some stability, especially on defense as well. 

05:55
You know where Toledo has has really faltered in some cases here in the last few seasons, and last year was kind of their their unpinning. So, yeah, I think you know, and over at uh, fanduel, miami, ohio, I think they're plus 230. So the the conference favorite this year and, I think, a well-deserved favorite, um, not something that that I'm jumping into, as far as you know, wanting to play the probably the top here in terms of the cream of the crop, wanting to it's not a conference, I'll say that I'll be looking to play the top of the board, um, but I do think that it is our favorite and and the best team by uh, maybe call it a moderate margin over toledo and one that that is, I think, installed as correctly as as the favorite here yeah, not not significant favorite over toledo. 

06:43 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
In fact less than a field goal in my power rating. So not much separating. Let's talk Toledo, though, and why Toledo is not number one, even though consistently they bring in the top recruiting class in the MAAC. And you know, on paper they should have been the MAAC champs last year they at one point won 11 straight games. First time Candle showed some consistency in winning the games that he should. 

07:02
But reason I'm a little bit down on Toledo this year is, you know, just lack of returning production. Not much of it whatsoever on this Toledo team, particularly on the offensive line, which is usually their staple of success year in and year out. Zero, big fat zero returning starters on that offensive line for Toledo. They lose some playmakers, to say the least, and these are guys that could have came back to. Kwon Finn, he's at Baylor now. Penny Boone left, he's at UCF, after, you know, a short stint at Louisville in the spring. So I mean that's two marquee players. Their top offensive lineman is going to be a starter at Texas Tech, that offense line. So not only players that were good for Toledo, but players that are likely to be starting at power. 

07:39
Five places this year, so a lot of big talent exodus for Toledo. I didn't even mention they had a first round draft pick in the secondary. Only the second time they've ever had a first round draft pick in the history of the football program. So not liking it so much, Although I will say schedule sets up nicely, it's not an overwhelming schedule. I just I'm back in. What is Jason candle more often than not proven to me is you cannot trust him to consistently win the games he should. So while I have my short dog against Mississippi state, western Kentucky might even be a short dog against Northern Illinois, who we'll talk about. Can you trust them to run the table on the other games? I can't. So I'm a little bit on a pessimistic view on Toledo this year. 

08:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree, and you know, as you said, offensive line is one of the things that they've had. You know continuity out that they lose this year Also. I mean you mentioned a few, but this is a team that has had the best skill position, talent overall in the Mac for for what seems like going on. You know, you know a deck almost year in, year out. They just had better players at wide receiver, at running back, sometimes at quarterback too, at least a functional quarterback. And, as you said, like those guys, I mean there was a time where I mean they've had NFL talent, you know, in the skill positions, deontay Johnson, those type of players, or at least guys where you're like these are quality player and the problem being now in the transfer portal era is those guys don't really stick around at Toledo anymore. They stick out and you know they put up the big numbers and then they come get scooped up like a Penny Boone, like a Daquan Finn. 

09:14
So, you know, in a year where you know pre-transfer portal, this would have been the out and out best team in the Mac. This would have been, you know, the no, no doubt favorite coming into the year, even though you know big, strong talk. This would be the Toledo team that we're talking about. Is is leaps. You know, a touchdown may be better than anybody, but that's not the era of college football we're in anymore, cause those guys get picked off by, you know, the power four. And now, I agree, I think it's more of a. You know an, you know an upper tier Mac Toledo team, but not a team that I think is going to, you know, compete for the Mac championship. And also you know a team that you would have thought could. If you put a couple of those guys back on this team, you think they can go into a Mississippi state and win that game. 

09:58
Now not so sure. Obviously don't want to touch the conference championship price here On a win total. You know what I believe. At Fandle we're looking at an 8.5 heavy juice to the under. So that's more around what you would call a flat 8 at minus 1.10. 

10:18
There was a time where I liked this number better. I think it was a bit higher earlier in the summer. If that juice was to come down maybe there's some oddity opinion I'd be interested in an eight and a half at that point. Now I think it's kind of been baked in there. So to me it's probably an eight and four type of team, but I need a little less juice to play the under on the eight and a half there. Because, as you said, outside of the Mississippi State game they've got layups with Duquesne, they've got UMass, a Western Kentucky team that I don't think is very good anymore. So, yeah, it'll be one of those. Where in the MAAC, as you said, do they win all the games they should? And under the Jason Candle administration they've dropped way too many of those. 

11:05 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's move to Northern Illinois. I don't have much to say on this team, which is saying something, because you know I've made over 100 season win total bets. Northern Illinois isn't one of them and it's tough getting a good read on this team because, you know, win zero games, win the MAAC championship, losing season, winning season and just not much consistency with this program. You lose a guy that felt like he played college football for a decade, rocky Lombardi. So it'd be interesting to see how they replace that. But it's a team that's got some. You know I like the running back One of the better running backs in the Mac. Their wider receiver core is fine. They've got some pieces to work with, but pretty much across the board, again, it's kind of a meandering. Would I be shocked if they won the Mac? No, would I be shocked if they went five and seven? No, so I didn't make a bet as far as Northern Illinois's win total, which has been sitting six and a half and pretty much been sitting six and a half all summer. 

12:19 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what I'll steal a the type of program that where they, again, they don't have a talent advantage you know over. You know a Toledo or a Romain Mayhem or, to be honest with you, even some of the you know the middle tier. I think there's a couple of more talented teams but they do have a program identity that I think a lot that kind of works in this conference that you know what they can line up, they can run the ball. They do have some toughness about them, usually have a good defense. I don't think Rocky Lombardi is a guy who you can't recover from losing, I'll put it that way, even though he had been in college quite a long time. 

13:00
So I would agree, I think this is probably your kind, you know your kind of staple tried into Northern Illinois team, which in this conference gives them a huge variance of outcomes here where, as you said, could be a four win team, could be in the Mac championship game. I would need trade net seven to one for for a conference title. I would need more than that to want to play them to win the. I agree with you, the six and a half to me, as you said, we're talking about the variance. So six, six and a half is about right. On the win total, seven to one isn't enough of a number for me to want to get involved here on them to win the Mac championship. If I'm going to take some shots, I think I'm going to take, you know, maybe in the next team or two we'll discuss here, but it's not a one for me that I just don't like the roster enough to think that 7-1 is I'm getting any value there. 

13:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's talk the next couple of teams, because I think we'll find a surprise team. You might take one, I might take the other. To be honest with you, I think we would have been block step but there was some market movement this morning before we decided to record this. So I I'm not going to be a homer but I'm just going to tell you what I see and I'm usually anti my teams because you know I read into them too much and I'm always pessimistic and chicken little. Let's talk Bowling Green, my alma mater, who I'm usually down on. But I got to tell you I like what the coach is doing. Didn't like the hire when it was initially made, but he's. 

14:25
You know the back-to-back bowl games. You start re-watching last year's games for BG. Look at who they lost to Liberty, michigan, toledo, minnesota I mean all teams that you know I'm Ohio and Ohio two teams that won double-digit wins coming out of the MAAC last year. There's really not a lot of bad performances and I thought the Michigan game intercepting McCarthy three times was pretty impressive. Outright win over Georgia Tech, which was legit. Almost beat Toledo. That game down to one play, lost by a point. I thought they played physicality-wise. They held up well against the Minnesota team in the bowl game. I like what I'm seeing and up well against the Minnesota team in a bowl game. I like what I'm seeing. And in fact I mentioned I bring up the last couple of years because I actually think this year's team is better than the last couple of years. I think they're deeper. 

15:10
It's taken a while for him to get the roster set because it was a dumpster fire for those three, four years under Mike Jinx. But they you know I'm not wild about the quarterbacks, but they're both back for the third year in Basilak and Camden Moore. That could be a good thing or a bad thing In Portal, if you're any good, you're gone. So yeah, they're mediocre. But the one thing that they do have is experience and this BG team, 14 returning starters. There's some pieces to work with. I like the fanning kid that they utilize. He can play running back. He can play, you know, in line tight end. You know they can line him outside the numbers at tight end. He's a prospect to watch. 

15:47
I like this team and why. I'm going to take a flyer and this will be the first bet and you can say hey, you're an idiot, you're being a homer. I don't want that. But this is a bet that I am made at this exact price. I bet BG to win the Mac at plus 750. And I'll tell you why I like it. You look at the two teams they're kind of in the mix with from a power ratings aspect Northern Illinois, western Michigan, both at home. I am Ohio's, also at home, so I'm not saying that the Doit is some great home field advantage, but what we're talking about a lot of these teams being pretty close in a power rating and they get them all at home with the exception it's legal, but that that game has come down to one play each the last two years. So I don't think that you know they're going to be scared to playing. You know, 20 miles North, I like this BG team. I like them over the wind total. 

16:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I like them, plus seven what we're in lockstep here. Uh, especially at the current prices. Now, as we talked about some, some prices, you know, have moved around recently and I think that's left a a absolutely viable price here on bowling green, uh of, and this will be our first, as you said, bet of the day for conference title 750. Uh, I like that quite. I think they are better and, zach, if you can put those conference title odds just back on the screen real quick, I think they're better than Western and Northern Illinois. 

17:11
And so now you're getting. 

17:12 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And they get them at home. 

17:13 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yes. So to me I think, where you're getting quite an opportunity there at 750 to get you know, do they? Are they going to be in that elite tier of a Toledo, miami, ohio? Should they be priced like that? No, but I definitely think they should be the third favorite in this conference. So 750 to me has some value, as you said, fan. I'll tell you what and we'll see if we can get our our friends at FanDuel to put this up for Mackey award, some of the player awards there. 

17:43
Harold Fannin I know there's some price around that. He's quite a big price there and I know a lot of college fantasy guys that think he's going to have a massive year NFL prospect there. As you said, as a Michigan guy, during the regular season last year no defense gave Michigan as much trouble as JJ McCarthy in the passing game as Bowling Green did. They had him in the blender in that first half, really confused with what they were doing, had a great game plan and played Michigan tough for a half. So yeah, I mean it would not surprise me at all to see this team go you know, win eight or nine games being a MAAC championship. 

18:21
Uh, and I like seven, 50 and agree with you on the the regular season win total over as well. So, yeah, both of those, I think, especially now with the prices that, upon recording here are, are quite a nice opportunity. 

18:35 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, and I I'm telling you that plus money, I'm okay with over six and a half wins too. I always shop around for the best price. I think I'm not. With over six and a half wins too, I always shop around for the best price. I think I'm not. Let's just take the conference odds on this one, cause I I you know shame on me, I didn't look around at a bunch. There has been some other books that I've offered, like six, and you know a half a win is 70 cents. So shop around. But if that is the best price over six and a half, I think some are playable as well. But let's just go conference with them. 

19:03
I do think leffler the coach, uh, understands the area of the country playing in michigan. That's probably why they were hyped up for that. When the defense coordinator is a former michigan player as well, yeah, they just run the football, play good defense force turnovers, take care of the football that one when woody hayes was coaching in that area of the country and one when urban Meyer was coaching BG, and it wins now. So I think he understands that area and what it takes to win and kudos, well, what we call at Bowling Green a Ziggy Ziggy Zumba. 

19:33 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
And listen. It might not have the best atmosphere. We'll be on safe. This gets close to a Mac title. We might be doing a show from from the stands in the, from the second deck over there, and, uh, you know, getting getting brad powers. Uh, his, his alumni statue if this team wins a conference championship. Well, long overdue. 

19:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So, yeah, let's go, uh, let's go, bg here, baby let's go, uh, let's talk about the team that had some price movement right before we came on, western michigan. I didn't mind the prices that were given out on that particular team because I mean, there is some stuff to like with Western Michigan, particularly when we talk about, okay, a lot, a lot of these teams that got, you know, rated by the portal and whatnot. Uh, western Michigan is the best returning production of any of the Mac schools 16 returning starters. They're in the top 15. Uh, any of the experience charts returning production rankings that you look out there. 

20:24
Second year of a new head coach Did upgrade their power rating three points. There's a lot to like here. I think they're in better shape than what they were certainly a year ago. The thing that worries me a little bit is I would have been like pounding fist on the table. Western Michigan's my sleeper, my surprise team in the MAAC this year Lost both OC and dc. I don't like having a new oc dc second year in a row for a second year coach. I like having that continuity, at least for two years. I know it's tough to get continuity. Another thing I I'm not wild about, even though, again, I bet that you know what price is long ago. Nobody wants to hear that. A couple months ago conference title was in good shape over the win total was in good shape. Now, at the current prices, I'm more stay away. The thing that concerns me is the team's got to stay healthy. Play Wisconsin and Ohio State to open. That's two very physical teams that they can't get beat up too much there. 

21:20
If they survive those two, then I think this team has no as much of a chance to northern illinois bg in the mac, but again they play at bg. Give me bg in that game. That that's where I'm at. 

21:31 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
We're uh currently on western michigan yeah, I agree, you know this one is coming to the range where, um, I would be no longer interested for me. I know they have a ton of returning production. With that said it was, it was a 4-18, you know, ranked 121st in S&P Plus last year. So, although they return a lot more than anybody in the MAAC, the question about the quality of what they're returning. I think this is not a team that has by any means top-end talent and, as you said, both new coordinators, both new coordinators that haven't really had success in a little bit Walt Bell, a guy, a name five or six years ago that you might have been excited about bringing in as an OC, and his trajectory has trended in the wrong direction, to where now he's the OC at Western Michigan. And Scott Power, another guy who you know, I don't know. 

22:26 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Got fired last year. 

22:28 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't particularly love either. So, yeah, two new coordinators that I'm not particularly high on, mixed with the fact that the returning production isn't exactly in the elite tier, so this is one that again, maybe long ago in the summer. Do I mind a sprinkle at some of the original prices that were up? No, now, no way. This team is not better than Bowling Green, so there's no way I'm betting them at $650 when I can get Bowling Green at $750. In the game they play head-to-heads at Bowling Green. Yeah, probably if ABG crushed them. I know 650 when I can get Bowling Green at 750. In the game they play head to head at Bowling Green, so yeah probably a BG crushed him. 

23:06 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I know it's last year, it's one game, but I mean that game meant the same to both and BG went on the road. I kind of liked Western in the game. Yeah, bg worked them pretty good on the road. So yeah, that said, echo your sentiments there. Let's get to a team that I think we'll both agree, probably the team that takes the biggest step back this year, that being Ohio the Bobcats, a team that's off back to back 10, 10 win seasons First time they've ever done that in school history. So I mean kudos for that, especially when they had a first year coach go three and9 his first season. 

23:43
You're thinking, ah, this guy might not be long for the job. But you know Alvin's done pretty well the last couple years. Really up against it this year. Only five. Now I'm not talking on one side of the ball, I'm talking offense and defense. Five returning starters for them and some returning production rankings. I mean they're dead last. I think Phil Steele's experience chart, they're dead last in the country. I got them nearly down double digits compared to last year. What does that mean? It means I'd favor last year's team by double digits over this year's team. You know anybody worth a damn transferred out. You know Rourke at quarterback, probably a starter at Indiana, a bunch of other guys you know gone and they haven't recruited consistently among the top teams in the MAAC year in and year out. So I think they take a massive step back. Right before we got on this podcast, there were some anti-Ohio bets coming in. I'm anxious what is FanDuel's current win total on Ohio? 

24:38 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Because I did agree with that bet that was sent out. Yeah, and that's still. I think that's still that's playable. 

24:42 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We can chart that one under under six and a half minus 144 is still good for me yeah, this I mean in terms of what college football you know we talked about transfer portal. 

24:53 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
This is kind of the the ugly side of what can happen to to your program in an office, and then we're not even talking about a coaching turnover here. Uh, we're just talking about a team that got absolutely rated and we saw it, you know, when Rourke is, the team that you know took futures on last year was super bullish on last year. You lose him, you lose almost every other relevant player they had and I think now they're added 17 FCS or lower or D2 or D3 guys. So it could, I mean, listen, if Tim Malbin's got, you know, an eye for talent and he can pick up a bunch of guys from the lower divisions that come up here. But I mean, that's hanging a lot on. Usually you would want to be taking. 

25:38
I think in some of the G5 instances we've seen, like at Texas State last year, you've poached guys off of Power 5 rosters who weren't playing. We haven't seen so much outside of. Maybe you know when Western Kentucky brought over their whole team and staff. You know from Houston Christian, we haven't seen a lot of guys going to the lower levels and completely turning over a roster with a bunch of success. So Ohio's going to try that this year and I'm not super optimistic in how it's going to go. Also, they play at Syracuse week one. 

26:14 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
A lot of money on Syracuse in that game. 

26:17 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I think that's one that even at 14.5, 15, 15 and a half, I think Syracuse that would be one. I would be surprised if it didn't close at least a couple points higher from where it is now. I could see them getting run out in that game. So even Syracuse under a new staff has a propensity to do that. In the non-conference it's Ohio team that will be breaking in a bunch of new guys and probably not ready for that type of performance week one. So yeah, even I know the 15 and a half there, that's still okay for me because I think that close. 

26:51 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You're giving out a week one best bet too. 

26:55 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Hey, if you're good. I mean, I know we're early in the season here, but that's one that I don't know. If, by the time we get to week one, that that's still under 17, we'll call it. So yeah, I. I just, I don't know how they're going to be able to put it together this year and get to I mean, get a need, especially on that wind total, to get to seven. 

27:16 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That big swing game, that South Alabama game, which I think they'll lose, There'll be a home underdog. But if they? 

27:22 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean at Syracuse, at Kentucky, south Alabama. I know they have Morgan state here, but I don't know how this I I would expect this team at best to go into conference play two and two, if not one and a three. 

27:34 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And then you got to play at Miami, ohio, you know you need to win and you're talking about having to sweep every other game, and I just don't see that. 

27:42 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I feel like they're a long way away from that. That's probably. I think that's the best win total left on the board there for the MAAC at the moment. 

27:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We might have another one that's off market at FanDuel, oh baby. But I do like. If we're talking consensus win total, I agree with you Ohio under 6.5. And anything. If you're talking by price, minus one, 60 or less for me again, fanduel had it in that minus one, 40 range. So that's the best bet there, I concur. I bet Syracuse in week one. I think they crushed Ohio in that. 

28:15
One new coach, a lot of excitement. They'll want to run it up. So there you go, 15 and a half there at FanDuel. Again, you can shop around at other places there, but we'll lock that in at that price. I mean we're okay with the key number of 15, which means it'll be 3520 Syracuse, knowing what happened to us last year. But yeah, we'll lock that in as well. So now the bets are starting to flow a little bit. 

28:38
You know I don't know how much we'll talk about the bottom six teams, but you know I don't know how much we'll talk about the bottom six teams but there might be a couple that got some win total thoughts on, I'm not sure about this team in Central Michigan. I'm not sure the market knows because there's some people that like the under. In fact, my initial gut instinct was to take under Central Michigan. I haven't liked what I've seen from the last couple of years, the look of this program, mcilwain's, kind of a unique, you know, let's just call them a different breed of cat, so to speak. You know, if you'd have told me when they beat Washington State it was on CBS and the Sun Bowl and controlled matters, I thought, hey, this is going to be the best team in the MAAC the next couple of years. 

29:13
And they haven't been. They haven't been able to figure out the quarterback position. Bert Emanuel Jr is a great athlete but he's not really a quarterback. He can't throw. They got some returning pieces back but a lot of their best players again transferred out. I don't know, that's kind of an enigma team for me. Priced at five and a half, I could see it going either way. I could see they can make a run towards the MAAC championship or I mean this could bottom out and McIlwain be fired? 

29:38 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean you know, first, two years, eight, four, nine, three, mac championship. You thought jim mackleway, I can't believe he's been there. This will be a six year now. You thought he was kind of returning to like he'll be back in the you know, the sec or something here in a minute um, and then these last couple years, especially offensively, it's like they haven't been able to like throw the football at all. 

29:57
They they've, and they've only recruited, you know, quarterbacks that that seem like they-trick ponies, that they're kind of just been able to do nothing but you know, kind of run a read option or almost like a direct snap, like a wildcat offense they've been running. And again I know, listen, bert Emanuel, fantastic athlete. I like Marion Lukes, they've got some receiving talent. I mean this is a team that has offensive talent. I just think you're asking a lot in one offseason of a manual going from a guy that is almost they just are scared to throw the ball with, to being able to operate a dual-faceted offense. I don't think you can run in college football. It's like why Navy and Army are going away from the triple op. Run in college football, it's like why, why navy and army are, you know, going away from the triple op. You just can't run a, an offense that that is only doing one thing, that doesn't give you multiple looks, that doesn't give you, and so I I think the cat was out of the bag. Now could maclean change it up over the offseason or some new? Could it get fresh new ideas a little bit different, maybe, um, but I think that's asking a lot. 

31:02
They do, again, do have some skill talent. So if, if it breaks right, could I see this team, you know, being a high-flying offense and, you know, with an average defense and maybe they, they kind of are a surprise contender, maybe, um, but I will say they're at the type of I need a little bit better than 16 to 1, but you're starting to get in the price range where, in a conference that that that has no elite teams really at all. Uh, you know, I don't hate the second half of the board. If you've got a gut feeling on a team that they might be able to hit a ceiling, is this the team in Mount Pleasant? Eh, probably not for me, but, um, I could see. If the offense comes together and and has one of those, you know, low barrier, low range outcomes and really looks good, that may be this team turns into a Mac and tender. 

31:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, a lot of swing games. I don't have a outside of the FCS game in the opener. I don't have a single one of their games priced, with them being more than a five point favorite. So I mean they're going to. If they figure out the quarterback position, then they'll win more of those swing games. If they don't, then I think my original gut instinct of taking the under the win total will probably end up being right. But who knows Swing game here? A lot of swing games, a coach that I'm probably a little bit more confident on. 

32:19
As far as a hot take, let's talk ball state. Mike knew, almost here a decade already, only one winning season, that being the coveted year where they actually won the mac championship, won their first bowl game ever in the history of the football program, but hasn't been good and I don't think it's going to be good, particularly this year. On the defense side of the ball. I think a huge step back, for that defense lost everybody, including the defensive coordinator, tyler stockton, who I liked a lot. I don't know if they totally figured out what they want to do offensively. There's some pieces back, eight returning starters, but they moved the Kelly kid who I thought was their best athlete. He's going to play corner and this is post-spring, after he hit the portal and he came back. He's going to play defensive back. I don't know if they got an athlete there that can overcome some of their defensive efficiencies. You know I look at the schedule. Oh, not a lot of surefire wins. My hot take is this this is it for Mike new. This is his last season. 

33:12 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean they, they lost, lost everything on defense and weren't really able to bring in. Uh, I think they only got four transfers or about four or five transfers in after losing basically everything on defense. 

33:24
The Kelly thing is odd, because he was kind of their only real weapon on offense was him, I think you know, average six point one yards of carry last year and so like the fact that I mean I maybe you know, you understand it from him why If he wants to play professional football it's not going to be a quarterback. So he said, make me a corner and maybe he has a potential NFL career. But where that leaves them on offense, I don't know. So when you talk about what they lost on defense, plus as rough as it could look on the offense from an explosive standpoint, which they don't have much kind of selling here, yeah, I wouldn't surprise it either. 

34:06
I think it would in year nine for Mike New, just not many. You know what we talked about at Central, where there's a small, know, a small percentage chance things can break right. I I don't see that here, like I don't see a ball state scenario, um, that things can really break for them to be like a six, seven, eight win team, I just I don't know where that comes from and I would agree I would lean towards more of an under on the win total, um, and kind of a season that they might you know this might be a 2-3 win team. 

34:37 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, 4-8,. You know anything under that 4-1⁄2, which is considerably the favorite there? You're looking at the juice there. Fan duel means he's done. And then one more final note on Ball State. A ridiculous schedule. They have a bye week in week one, which is less than ideal, then they play an fcs team, that's not an auto win either. That fcs game no, that's not a slam dunk win. And then after the fcs game. So their first two weeks are by fcs. Five of their next six games are on the road. It's just a just. 

35:10 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It's about as bad of a schedule set as anybody in the country, and then they go to Vandy during the middle of conference play like with no bye week there have to go to an SEC school, which I know is Vandy, but to me that's I mean, listen, we're being honest, what that is, that's we need to check. Like it's a program and a conference that is scraping every dollar that they can together. And you've seen it here from Ball State they basically gave up their midweek buy to go play at Vanderbilt and get a check. So, listen, that's the life in the MAAC in 2024. So, yeah, it's going to be tough on them. 

35:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's talk Buffalo, and I'm just going to have Zach pull up these odds the season win total for Buffalo, which I kind of like because, number one, it's off market and anytime you're off market you get bets from me. So this is a bet that I made literally just a few minutes before I did this show. I kept it light. It hasn't moved, I kept it quiet, so to speak. I didn't bet you know any and you know I'm flagged uh in some instances. Uh, but I like the over here, and let me tell you why. Over four and a half. Yeah, some people I know blue horseshoe like under five and a half. That's okay. I mean not that I disagreed with that, but man, four and a half when the markets painted five, five and a half in some spots. I'll take the over four and a half. 

36:35
Number one I like Pete Lembo quite a bit. He's their new coach. I think he's an upgrade, significant upgrade as far as the head coach. He understands how to win the MAAC. He actually won at Ball State. I don't know, I can't believe they fired him. You know they fired him for going five and seven and now or two times. So I think he's a pretty solid coach. Obviously he's led the special teams the last few years at South Carolina, some of the best special teams units in the country. 

37:01
Now there's not an over amount, overwhelming amount, of returning production, particularly on offense. I don't necessarily like the quarterback situation but what I do like, like that back seven on D they had one of their best players on defense transferred to Utah State. Decided to come back. I think that's probably a you know move. Where, not how much, can a linebacker be worth a team's power rating? Well, when it's one of your leaders and you're on, you need every player you can get. At a school like a Mac school, it might be worth a half point or so that that might not be properly priced in. So I'll take over four and a half. I don't know if this is best bet because it's only available at one book, but it is a bet that I made yeah, you know what I again I agree with you. 

37:40 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I like the hire. Um, you know what I think sometimes, you know the special team coordinator can be a really good special team coordinator kind of be a sneaky hire for, uh, for getting out of programs. As you said. He knows the mac landscape, been in the conference before the only new coach. Can you believe that the only new coach in the Mac which kind of speaks to what we talked about at the open here of used to be a conference where you'd kind of get in and then move your way up and and then you know, be looking for the next job. It's kind of become like a I don't want to call it a retirement home, but I, you know I got more of a guys you know, on the second half of their career that are coming back into the jobs. And Lembo, here you know he could be one of those you know new risers. 

38:19
I think Mo Linguist was we'll call it a little early for him in terms of his tenure at Buffalo. You know it didn't totally translate. I thought he would do a better job accumulating talent and recruiting. That never really materialized. I'm not going to be against you here, I will just say I'll be more optimistic, probably next season. I think you know, lembo, I like the hire. You got to do a lot to talk me into this offense, because I don't think there's much left there. 

38:53 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, there ain't much there. 

38:55 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't really like even the quarterbacks. They brought in um old dominion transfer jackson, like I just don't see a lot in terms of what they can do on offense. Uh, and it's a team that, yeah, I mean, listen, they've got two winnable non-conference games there. Uh, or well, not non-conference for for a while there with the umass, but lafayette and umass there and then ball staying kent state at home. 

39:17
Yeah so connecticut non-conference, that's, I mean, that's not a slam dunk loss yeah, I mean, I don't hate it, I, I will say that, just I. I think it'll take a year for him to kind of get some talent accumulation and get his feet back under him. Um, because yeah, I don't love what was left here by a linguist. 

39:36 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
The soccer coach I think we both do like, and probably another long-term tenured coach who's record If you know nothing about Eastern Michigan football, you would think, ah, this guy's not very good. But when you compare it to what Eastern Michigan was prior to Chris Creighton getting there, he's done about as well as you could. At a place like Eastern Michigan there's some excitement. They got a donation, got a new field. Max Crosby donated some money there. So you know, I went there a couple of years ago and was impressed with what he did. As far as recruiting profile, I mean there's license, but I was in the parking lot that they were practicing next door, a licensed place from like Texas, wyoming, virginia, there's all over the country. So I'm like, how the hell do you get the? I mean you know the area. How the hell do you get these kids to ipsilanti, michigan, uh, so, uh, somebody's doing something. 

40:23
As far as scouting, uh, I'll say this when you see a win total four and a half with chris creighton as your coach, you want to go. Let's go over. Problem is they were extremely fortunate to get to a bowl game last year. You look at their basic statistics. They were a bottom five team in the country last year. I mean yards for play margin, yards for game margin, scoring margin Finally probably got exposed in that bowl game. I mean they got absolutely destroyed by South Alabama. I want to go over four and a half. I mean, if you tell me you're strong on it, I can agree and I'll finally bet it. I haven't bet it yet, but they don't have much coming back. They do have the buffalo quarterback with, you know, coming in, which I think can give them a little bit of an upgrade there, but only eight returning starters from a team that I thought was a really phony six and six team and at least in the regular season a year ago. 

41:10 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
And that's where I started understanding why this win total sitting here at four and a half yeah, I mean what I I will call him the, the mac bill snyder here of what you've been able to do, um, incredible, it's year 11 for him, uh, and that nobody's we've talked about that a few times on the show over the years of how no one you know decided to to poach him. Um is interesting. But I mean, as you saw, this is one of those that they just don't have much. I mean, they didn't have much going last year and he was able to kind of you know, magic, magic being their way to six wins you. You have to think at some point, um, even with Creighton and what and what he's able to do, that it water kind of finds its level here. I again, as you're saying, with four and a half it kind of makes you want to jump and maybe we'll, you know, at the end of the year kind of look back and say it was great and we should have just took it with. 

42:04 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Eastern. 

42:04 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Michigan. He gets there every year, but it's just on paper or data or any of that, like hard to make the case. Because, as you said, this was a really bad team last year by almost all accounts. That, uh and and a team that didn't didn't bring a ton back off of that and in an impossible place to recruit um. And, as you said, when we were, you know, when we were younger men, this, this was a team that was, you know, there's, oh, it's or one zero or one wins every single year, um, for for a long time. So, uh, yeah, one of the hardest jobs in the country, um, and he's done an incredible job, but there's, there's not enough here for me to to want to be, you know, say that that they can get to five and seven, so, um, especially paying a little extra juice there. So I think this is one we will probably leave alone. 

42:56 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right, fair enough. Two more teams left here in the MAAC. Excited, I didn't know how these were going to go. Honestly, I've been happy with it so far. You know me, I'm pretty self-deprecating, so two more teams Shouldn't be a surprise. Talk about two of the worst, worst programs. Uh, in the country facilities wise, or at least kent state facility wise, akron's got a nice stadium, not in a nice neighborhood, but uh let's talk akron joe I'm not kidding, I went there. 

43:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Look, I've been to 65 different uh colleges. 

43:29 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
The only one where I kind of was like oof, I mean, I'm kind of I'm glad I'm not here at night, I would be worried about my truck getting broken into was akron, but it is. I, I would argue from a facility aspect. I can't believe they built that thing where they did because it's, it's super nice uh. What hasn't been super nice uh has been the record so far under joe moorhead. He's made some strides. They have just not been able to get over the hump. That maybe flirt with ball eligibility and I'm not sure that this is the year that they do it here. 

43:56
Only eight returning starters on a team. That wasn't very good. I know there's some people out there in the market that kind of like this team. Man, I can't get there. You know how many games are you putting out for a three and a half win total? How many of them are winnable? Colgate, certainly. Eastern Michigan, maybe because it's at home at Kent State. Buffalo, okay, they'd have to win all four of those, right, and can you trust them to do it? I'm not sure that's the case. So I haven't made a bet yet. I'm just uh, I'm a little surprised that the market was super optimistic. 

44:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
There was a lot of, you know, three going to three and a half earlier this summer yeah, I, to be honest with you, I kind of lean and I know you'd think you'd think that like, okay, morehead year three he did a little bit more of what we we talked about earlier where um ohio, instead of going to the lower ranks, morehead was taking so trying to find some of those guys around the power five guys that he could get an opportunity and it just didn't really. It didn't really turn into wins. And now they lost so much production off last year's roster and he hasn't been able to kind of re, you know, dip in and kind of reinvigorate the program with more of that talent. 

45:05
It's a team where you know they lost quarterback off last year's team to graduation Irons and just when healthy, he was their playmaker the last couple years yeah, like it's one of those that I, I don't, I don't, you don't really love too much of what's left and I and more heads a guy that you know I I thought was a pretty good offensive mind. Um, I thought I was a really good hire I just yeah, this is a terrible job it. 

45:32
It just hasn't, you know, it hasn't really translated so far. And you know, again, I know year three is that, you know, kind of make or break year when you're talking about a coach who in the transfer portal era that that's kind of changed where you can lose all your. You know, between two and three you can lose a lot of guys. And now, year three, you're sitting here kind of wondering what happened as you go into it. So, yeah, sitting here kind of wondering what happened as you go into it. So yeah, I don't, I don't have much, much in terms of what's what's here like or what to sell this team. If anything, I would lean the under three and a half as well. Um, and you know what I think it's, it's a team that I I think I sprinkled last year to win the conference. That thinking that and, to be honest with you, I like that bet last year more than I like you know, anything for the long shot this year. 

46:17
So uh, yeah, it was. 

46:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
It would be an under three and a half for me, or nothing yeah, because they had some sneaky like town, dj irons you could see hey, if he works out lingard at running back yeah, lingard, at running back a former five-star prime, was one of their best offensive players last year. He's gone. I'll give you a name, though positive so so we're not so negative. On akron the kid, a defensive end, I really like number 91. Yeah, that kid's good, nunnally, or, however, yeah yeah he'll, he'll get drafted. I, I like him. He's. He's their best player on the team yeah, that's great, that doesn't help you with the win total. 

46:52
Though a defense, I just to say something positive. 

46:57 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
He's a good ball player, I mean, he's going to go in the fall. Yeah, if I was his agent, I told him to get out of there, but I can't believe he didn't transfer Like. 

47:04 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I was telling him that he came back like, ooh, maybe he got a tire deal or something there in the, in the in the rubber city, kent state's last and shouldn't be a surprise that they're bringing up the rear. 

47:17
Although before I even break down the team and tell you what I think about them, I just want your thoughts on Kent State. Obviously, you and I were betting on them quite a bit. If you watched the Hit the Books channel last year, we were like this number can't get any lower, can it? There's got to be value. On Kent State, we couldn't win and then the one week we didn't pick them was the final week. And here we are in the fourth quarter. I'm texting you. I'm like are they going to win outright as a three touchdown underdog in one game? We don't pick them against Northern Illinois. 

47:48
I will say this One thing I really like about this year's team is keep in mind last year, terrible situation zero returning starters on offense, eight on offense. This year, zero returning starters on the offensive line. Last year, all five back this year. I think this is a much improved team. In fact, from a pure power ratings I'm not talking win-loss record, pure power rings this is the biggest upgrade I had of any team in the Mac yeah, I mean, uh, this, this team was the the bane of our existence. 

48:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You know, last year, in terms of we, it just seemed like you know it's one of those. This has got to be the floor, right, and they would somehow somehow find a way. I mean, as you said, do bring a lot back. You know, in a conference that you know there could be a number of teams taking a step down. What's it? Two and a half is just a juice pretty over here, and they've got a juice over. 

48:49 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That's what I want to get. I like two and a half over. I have made that bet. I just don't know. Because of the bad vibes, we want to lay a lot of juice on over two and a half. 

48:59 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I was going to say at that price. You know what it was at minus 160, it's steep. I do think this team can get the three wins though. 

49:07 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I do think they get the three wins, yeah, so shop around. I don't know if I want to run to the window, to you know minus 158, but over two and a half is a bet that I made. I like over two and a half wins on this Kent State team. 

49:23 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
We will make it a best bet. It's a team that got you know St Francis and FCS team, Eastern and Akron all at home, yeah. So if you hold, serve at least in the end All states at home. That's a winnable game. 

49:35 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Ohio State's taking a big step back. They're at home. There's some winnable games here and they're all at home, Not that Kent. 

49:43 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
State is at home, not exactly LSU at night. 

49:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think they get the three wins. I like the offense. It's maybe one of the more improved offenses uh in, uh uh in the country. Um, you know not that they're gonna start scoring 35 points a game, but they were the worst offense in the country and there's some. I like one of their wide receivers. I think they'll figure it out. A quarterback yeah one thing christian mccray. Yeah, that's another sneaky, really good player in the match. 

50:17 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, that. 

50:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I can't believe didn't hit the portal. 

50:22 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean, I tell you what, what Sean Lewis did here, going over 22 and 21 in three years at Kent State. I think we'll look back and maybe I'll be an old man sitting on my rocking chair saying how the hell did he do that in three years at this program? I think we'll look back and maybe I'll be an old man sitting on my rocking chair saying how the hell did he do that in three years at this program? So yeah, when we get to the Mountain West maybe I'll have some more Sean Lewis takes, but yeah, really tough place to win. Do you think they can get to three wins this year though? 

50:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Not a best bet, though, at that particular juice. So shop around. It's an extra bet. If you want it, shop around. I just want to recap our bets here as we close it out. Obviously long shot for us, sort of long shot Bowling green plus 750 to win the MAAC. We like under the win total in Ohio, under 6.5 wins. If you want to bet a number that's off market, I personally like Buffalo over 4.5 wins. We just, you know, kent state's a bet that you can make. 

51:19 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Did I miss anything there? Uh, did we just reaffirm our our BG love our our bowling green? Uh, you know, uh take it to the window, baby. 

51:28 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, and again, if you want to shop around about the wind, total as well, that's so. I mean, it's all in your guys's hands there, but uh also boys week one uh, syracuse, ohio. 

51:39
Oh, there you go. I knew there was one syracuse lane 15 and a half against ohio, that is in case you didn't know. That is the star of this whole. There he is, zach phillips, producer extraordinaire. Uh, the man the myth, the lead, the legend. He might be the man, the myth, the legend, the real one, I'm joking, but that's producer extraordinaire, zach Phillips. I want to thank again FanDuel for sponsoring these. I want to thank you, kanish, first one that we did. I thought we did a good job here. As far as conference previews, we got eight more of them coming your guys' way here in the next few weeks as we lead up to the season. Any closing thoughts? 

52:15 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
no, hey, good, good to kick off with, uh, you know, uh, our, our, our country, here with the mac, and then we'll keep it rolling, baby all right, you just watched the 2024 mac preview. 

52:25 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Hit the books sponsored by fanduel. We'll talk in a future preview, me.