00:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right, it is that time once again. The preview series for the upcoming 2024 college football season continues with the Mountain West. Obviously, this has hit the books, part of the Hammer Betting Network. Alongside the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish, producer extraordinaire, zach Phillips I am merely Brad Powers. Before we talk the upcoming season as far as the Mountain West goes and the team that we're really high on, but the market now has finally reacted to. 

00:37
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02:14
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02:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I listen. You know what Mountain West clean, crisp bear. This is the conference baby. This is the conference baby. This is what I love to talk about. I love this G5 conference. I tell you, other than the near and dear you know, mac, that we both have, you know, blood ties and heartstrings too. This might be my second favorite G5 conference here and excited to get into it. Obviously, we got you know one chalky favorite at the top, but I think a little bit at some teams that could be frisky in this one and part of the way here, so excited. This is always a, you know, a favorite of mine to talk about. 

03:36 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And also some coaching news, to say the least, in this conference. Lots of turnover, lots of recent turnover that we'll get to. I'm going to echo those sentiments, though you know Max always near and dear to my heart, but now that I've been out here a decade and, you know, for several years was a UNLV season ticket holder this conference is now near and dear to my heart. I love the Mountain West and if you follow Mountain West football for the last two decades there is a program at least the last decade plus that's dominated the conference. They might not be as good as what they were 15 years ago, but but they're still the class of this conference and, to no surprise, at the top of my power rings we start the teams top to bottom as far as my power preseason power ratings go. We're going to start off with Boise State who I think obviously not that I think they won the conference last year, but I think very should make it back-to-back. I think this is a Boise State team that might not be as good as what they were under Chris Peterson, but this might be their best team since the Chris Peterson-Kellen Moore days. Lots of returning experience, something that's not always the case with G5 football anymore. 

04:41
15 returning starters I know they have a new coach, but he was the interim last year. I like what he did as far as filling out his coaching staff. Obviously you got a guy that's very familiar with the program and Dirk Cutter calling the plays. Once again, he called them a couple of years ago, saved the season for them when he took over the play calling. Now he's going to be the OC, at least for one more year. They got two co-defensive coordinators that I think are pretty, pretty good, including tyler stockton from a very underrated ball state team. 

05:07
And then you start looking at personnel. Are you kidding me? Ashton gentia running back is arguably the best group of five football player, regardless of position in the country, and then maybe possibly got a five star starting a quarterback in malachi nelson, you might have a five-star kid as long as his head's on straight and marshall at wide receiver. You got some other talented options at wide receiver and tight end, relatively inexperienced offensive line defense nine returning starters from probably gonna be I know it's a defense took a step back, but again I like the coaching hires. I like the returning production there maybe the best, probably the best defense in the mountain west. 

05:43
I guess what I'm getting at is. Well, there's a reason why everybody was betting over 8.5 win total. There is you know people like myself when I say we, I mean me and others To win the Mountain West Conference. If you follow along with the weekly show on Hit the Books, we gave it out. They're now a minus money favorite versus the field in the conference. I even bet Boise State to make a playoff. This is a team that I have as much pro positions on Boise state as any team in the country. 

06:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You know what and as, as you said, I mean you laid out the case there about why they should be the favorite, the deserve favorite, obviously the best roster in this conference to play Deadpool's advocate here. Oh, here we go. I think the biggest question mark you've got here is what do you got in Malachi Nelson Because it's a USC program that seemed to go Miller-Moss and they seemed comfortable with Miller-Moss and I don't know if they were really devastated to lose it. Also, a guy who is we'll call it um. You know very slight build. You know a thinner guy. Yeah, you know. Could he, if he's gonna be running around? You know he's a mobile guy. You know the dual court, dual threat quarterback, take a few hits. You know what do they have behind them in in terms of oh, I like the Madsen kid. 

07:02
I think they're okay there yep, so that would be my biggest, biggest, you know quit was is malachi nelson the guy who he was built up to be as a recruit? Can he be, you know, an elite player at the g5 level? Again, I'm just throwing it out there, they should be the favorite. Over eight and a half was obviously, uh, a, you know, a huge move in the market. That would be. My biggest question is I think they'll be okay on defense, skill, talent for days, on offense and the offensive line, it'll be fine. Will malachi nelson be be what he, what he was built up to be, as a crew? Because if not, then I think the ceiling for this team is more, just, you know, a mountain west ceiling than a playoff ceiling say he doesn't work out, I think they can win games again. 

07:51 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I then maybe they don't make the playoffs, but I think they can win enough games and still win the conference with the madsen kenneth quarterback but remember he was splitting reps and in some cases they kind of preferred him over taylon green last year. Uh, so I I think there'll be okay, provided he's healthy. He's been banged up a little bit, but I hear you on that. I guess what I'm getting at is a lot of pro early positions, everybody. They don't care about what we have in pocket. What do we do now with this team? I think that's where I agree with you. All this optimism that we have for Boise state all that and state all that and then some is pricing the market. I'm not running the window to bet over nine and a half wins. I'm not running the window to lay it versus the rest of the mountain west right now. Uh, I need a plus sign. As far as the conference futures there, uh, and I'm at the, the playoff market again for what you said, obviously shop around, but I'm not wild about. 

08:41
Uh, it seems like this train is getting full as far as everyone jumping on the bandwagon that's a good way to put it Socks' second-best team, and I'm going to flip-flop as far as my ratings here because there's been some recent news in recent weeks. I think his second-best team, at least on paper right now and I'm stunned to say this, considering I've been in town for the last decade UNLV is the second best team, in my opinion, in the Mountain West as we stand right now recording this in early August Obviously a great first year for Barry Odom Exceeded all expectations. Unlv had their best season in any season in 40 years and it was legitimate. I know they ran out of gas a little bit at the end against San Jose State, boise State state and in the bowl game, but uh, then they exceeded expectations and you kind of saw you didn't see nine wins coming. But you like the coaching staff, the coaching hire. You like them firing my. I like them firing marcus arroyo. To me it said, hey, we're getting serious about trying to win some games here. We have the fertilia complex. Uh, that's one of the best training facilities in the Mountain West. We're located in Las Vegas. We got 30-some high schools here. We should be able to recruit. They fired a coach that a lot of people thought, oh, why'd you fire me? He won more games in each season than he had. I liked it and obviously they made a good hire. They got some ROI immediately with Barry Odom. 

10:03
This year's team I is better, even though they lost the quarterback Jayden Maiava to USC. I thought he was. I know he's a freshman of the year but he still played like a freshman at times and was inconsistent. They bring in somebody knows what they're doing and it's probably Marion. The OC, who I really love, brought in two of my favorite FCS quarterbacks the kid from Campbell and obviously you got Sluka from Holy Cross coming in. So I don't think there's a downgraded quarterback, no matter who starts there. 

10:31
They got some wide receiver talent, to say the least. Ricky White would be a second or third team all Big Ten receiver if he stayed at Michigan State. He's probably one of the nation's best group of five wide receivers. I think the defense will be better this year. They brought in a lot of power, five transfers on that side of the ball. There's a lot of excitement here. I will say that the thing that's preventing me from being pro-pro UNLV big time this year schedules one of the more difficult schedules UNLV's ever faced. Not that these games are unwinnable, but they're just. You know, they could get beat up a little bit because they're very competitively priced at Houston, at Kansas, fresno State, syracuse, and that's all you know by the first week of October. So we'll see if they, you know, can live up to some expectations here. I think the future's bright if they can hold on to Barry Odom. I'm not sure that they will, though. 

11:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, as you said, those FCS. Someone was doing some scouting because those FCS quarterbacks I'm surprised they got both of them to come in there and be part of it, because Saluka did some things under our guy, bob Chesney at Holy Cross there, where we're in the weeds, but we've mentioned it a few times. They had South Dakota State on the ropes with him at quarterback and Bob Chesney leading the team there, and then Osmolique Williams all type of talent from Campbell. So they did a nice job there. Going shopping on the market. 

11:56
Ricky White if he can keep his head on straight, one of the you know, maybe the best skill guy at wide receiver in the G5. Not a team that should be short on Chaelan. They also brought in some support guys to sure up some of the defense, some Power 5 transfers. So roster-wise I agree with you, as long as they can get some continuity there on offense, especially with some of the coordinators that I like as well, and Barry Odom being a very good coach, maybe not a great coach, but a very good coach. There's a lot to like going at UNLV, as you said, other than the fact that you know what they don't really outside of Utah Tech-FCS game. They really don't have what you would call. You know, a lot of layups. 

12:45 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
No, there isn't. 

12:47 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So it's kind of one of those that week to week you're going to have to be up. I think they're going to run the quarterback a lot. So the fact that they got both of those guys you know is a nice element there in case one goes down. So, yeah, I think this team a lot of talent. I don't know if it sets up just one of those years that with Boise so good and with the schedule. It would have been nice for them to peak in maybe a different type of format. But they got a lot going in the right direction. I just don't have I don't really have a bet on them per se in terms of where the win total is at right now and where the conference future is at Again program in the right direction, but nothing that I would need a flat seven there for me to want to go over. 

13:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I think that's appropriately priced. Seven and a half under juice, significantly, is where I would price this team. I'll be honest with you. If you told me flat seven and a half, I'd go under, believe it or not, even though I'm very pro-UNLV this year. I just think the four games against power, five opponents is something that they're not used to playing with. And I'll tell you another thing they're not used to playing with preseason expectations. We'll see. Last I checked I know you don't make it out this way too often, kanish, but last I checked, checked there's some distractions in this town and now distractions now with expectations, uh, we'll see if, uh, they can handle it. But uh, boy, on paper that you're coming into a season. I'm this has to be the highest I've ever had unlv power, or anybody's had unlv power rating the last 40 years at least coming into a season. So there's some exciting, uh, excitement there. There was some exciting excitement there. There was some excitement. 

14:26
Originally, until some recent news, fresno State would have been probably my second best team in this conference. But Jeff Tedford, you know, not a surprise considering he's had a couple of episodes of health-related issues, including missing the bowl game this past year. But he steps down. Their interim is going to be the same interim that they had during the bowl game. Fresno State does return their quarterback, mikey Keene, who was off and on Boy, he was really on in the bowl game. There's some pieces to work with here 14 returning starters, a schedule that's not overly daunting. Outside of Michigan in the opener it was a team that I thought I was going to be pretty optimistic on, but that news hit and you just don't know if guys will hit the portal, what to expect. So right now I'm kind of waiting C-mode, but I know when the news broke. I mean, just like any other thing when you lose a coach not that you're going to downgrade the team's power rating significantly but I went ahead and took an under position on Fresno State. 

15:23 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what I mean. Jeff Tedford, uh, was you know I just an unbelievable coach for, for you know a lot of a lot of 10 years, uh, over at kale, and then what he's done at Fresno state and his second time around even, um, just just knew how to win ball games there. Um, as you said, Mikey Keene, when he, when he's on, when he looks right his offense looks pretty good, when he was off not so much. 

15:49
They do have some offensive line talents. A lot of the defense took a step back last year but bringing a lot back this year. I just don't in terms of again, we look at it from the same position of you know, a UNLV, can they really challenge a Boise? I don't think so. I don't think there's enough there. I think the offensive line should be very good and Mikey Keene, when he's right, should make this offense pretty electric. But it's just a little. It's not enough for me to want to go, especially at the. You know the prices there, where they're only you know I think they're what 350, four or four, 20 to one there to win the conference. That's not enough for me to to wanna get involved. Um and unseat boys, have you done anything with the win total? 

16:38 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
you know, under again, always shop for the best prices. This I mean again, you don't have to be elon musk or einstein to figure some of this out. I mean I shopped and bet an under eight when the tedford news hit. I did originally bet four to one to win the conference before the tedford this is early in the summer uh, because I thought you know that there was some. You know, if there was one team that I I was confident that could compete with boise? 

17:00
it'd be them uh, but nah, I don't like that position now and uh, I will say this is in the weeds. We don't always want to go deep into the weeds on teams, otherwise we've been talking three hours but they like uh. Cory foreman, a former uh five star, number one overall player in the country, didn't never made panned out at usc. Uh, he's playing uh up to his capabilities with a new scenery. I was just there at fresno State a couple days ago. That's a pretty stadium, I can tell you that. Pretty surroundings. 

17:32 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Hey, I know we haven't talked enough about the stadium tour. I know there's these previews. We haven't had the weekly show. So yeah, I've seen the BP Stadium Tour was live and full go. We'll have to review it on one of the regular shows. But yeah, it's a nice. And you know what? Um, I took a little, took some random heat on twitter when I said fresno was a decent recruit. I know it's a little bit remote in california but it's typically a program that has a lot of they want going back to pat hill and even, I think, boy, a long time, jim sweeney. 

18:02 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
They've consistently been a winner yeah, yeah, yeah. 

18:05 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
And just, I think they have more of a local talent base than a lot of these teams. So yeah, you know what? I agree, without the Ted for News, maybe it would be a little bit more bullish. Still think they could be very good, just don't think they can get over the hump this year. 

18:19 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Now I am hearing people from inside that, as far as the future of fresno state and not necessarily this season, because I do like the talent and I think they can maybe you know, I would be stunned if they didn't at least make a bowl game uh, the future I'm hearing there's some uh money issues, uh, so uh, we'll see. Uh, if that comes into play. As far as who they can hire as the next coach, boy on paper it should be an attractive job. I'm not saying the most attractive G5 job, but a place that if I was an up-and-comer I would take a Fresno job. Let's start a couple of programs here. One of them with a new coach, a couple of teams that are not getting a lot of publicity this offseason, but two programs that have won a lot here recently in the Mountain West. We'll start first with Wyoming. The that have won a lot here recently in the Mountain West. We'll start first with Wyoming. The team that is replacing their long-term coach, craig Bull, in types, you know, the Saville guy who was the DC, takes over. 

19:15
I think there's not as much turnover with the program. Why would you want a lot of turnover, since they're coming off one of their better recent decades in the history of their football program here, what Bull was able to do? So I don't think they changed much. History of their football program here what bowl was able to do? So I don't think they changed much. Um, I do think they'll modernize the offense, maybe play with a little more tempo. Um, but we'll see. I gotta see that first before I believe that they like their new quarterback, the sabota I know I'm chopping that up a little bit, but they like him, they like some of the guys at wide receiver. Tight end defense should be still fine. It's definitely not a team that's going to win nine games like they did a year ago, but it's a team that I think will be back in a bowl game here in Wyoming yeah, you know what, as you said they, they have an identity as kind of what they, what they want to be. 

20:00 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
They get people up there. You know, in the Wyoming it can. Usually there's a weather, cold, it's not a great off. They do. I agree with you. I would like to see them somewhat modernize the offense. Even though they were able to get results A lot of times. It was a painful watch sometimes playing some of that old school Wyoming football. 

20:21
But again, they lean, know their strength and you can you know in their recruiting. They lean, know their strength and you can you know in their recruiting base and where they're at. You can get some defensive guys, you can get some linemen. They were always pretty good in the trenches, that'll. That'll kind of be the. They're able to take advantage of some of the other weaknesses that that some of the other schools in this conference have. So, yeah, I mean bowl did everything you could want at this program. I didn't say stuck, we wanted the continuity. Defense will be very good again. Just don't see from a ceiling-wise perspective. This was a team that you would call it. The past three to five years had some conference title. You would call it conference title, potential and aspirations Never got there, yeah, never got there, yeah, yeah. 

21:06
Never got there and I would say there, I would put them a tier below that now, where I don't think it's what I would call realistic in this year and this year want to, especially with how good we think a couple of those top tier teams can be for them to get there. 

21:23 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, even though I think they're a bowl team, I'm not running the window to bet a conference future. I just you know UNLV's A game is better than them. Obviously, you know Fresno State, as long as they can handle the coaching turnover, their A game is better. Boise State obviously significantly better. So, yeah, I didn't bet a Wyoming future in that regard. 

21:45
Air Force is a team that I think I said. I know I bet with a lot of people, but I think I sent this one to you. I like this Air Force team. A very quiet offseason for Air Force. A lot of people down on Air Force. I get it. They have nobody coming back. Seven returning starters but I downgraded them significantly. 

22:00
It touched down on my power rings but, with that being said, this is still Air Force. This. This is still last. I checked troy calhoun still there. They still got a lot of continuity at the coaching staff. It's still the same system that they run year in and year out. 

22:13
Uh, I think it's a team that's being overlooked a little bit people are forgetting about. Uh, certainly not as good as what they were last year, but uh, air force is a team that I think is back in a bowl game this year early season market did not have them priced in a bowl game. In fact it was five and a half. So over there, and this is how much I like it. If I had to bet it now at six and a half, I'd still go over six and a half wins, and I don't think I'm alone. You look at some of the other books out there that they're hanging seven Fan duel, six and a half yet. So I still wouldn't make a bet. We'll see what we got at the end of this show, but my numbers have this one at seven. 

22:48 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean this is one where a lot of the you know when you go into the returning production numbers and what teams lose, in that you always got to be a little leery of the academies, because it's not like you're pumping in a bunch of new freshmen here or transfer portal guys here. It's guys that have been in the program for for multiple years. So I don't think, even though they've lost a lot off of last year's team, that usually doesn't hit and it's kind of one of those things you don't really know about a lot of these guys until the season starts going, because they didn't have big recruiting profiles. They weren't there, weren't guys on the radar that said not a lot of information coming from the program, um, so we'll see. But again it's, it's kind of one of those. They are the staple of consistency um, with a type of system that that, as you almost talked about, with wyoming there, wyoming giving air force trouble, you know, parentally over the years, a type of system that gives a lot of the other teams in the conference uh, the not wyoming that don't have the personnel to line up and defend this system a lot of issues year over year in the Mountain West. So I wouldn't have a bullish position on where the number's at now. And it's a team that I think had a higher ceiling Again. Do we just talk about Wyoming have a higher ceiling? Same with Air Force, kind of a team that was challenging for the conference title in some years. Don't see that this year. But again, I'm not running to bet under on a team that's been perennially over for a while just because of some returning production numbers. 

24:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
If we don't have a bet there, maybe we have a bet on this next team. In fact I know we do it's Colorado State. The next team In fact I know we do, it's Colorado State. The next team in my power ratings. A critical year three for Norvell, who's off back-to-back losing seasons. Better not have any third straight losing season, although I think it's very possible, colorado State. You know, at times when you look at the skill position, talent. 

24:41
Last year I think everyone will remember the Colorado game. I think 10 million people watched it on a Friday night. But you saw some bits and pieces, you saw the potential but haven't been able to put it together. I'm not sure Norvell's that great of a coach from what I've seen. I expected them to, considering he took Nevada's team with him. I know they expected him to kind of hit the ground running. It just hasn't happened. He stacked together some solid recruiting classes, but I have not just seen it with my own eyes. 

25:12
As far as a consistent week in and week out, I know they don't play UNLV or Boise State, but they do have Texas and Colorado in the non-con and I don't think there's a lot of slam-dunk wins on the schedule outside of the FCS game against Northern Colorado. My numbers have it at six. If I don't think there's a lot of slam dunk wins on the schedule outside of the FCS game against Northern Colorado, my my numbers have it at six. If you're a follower of the weekly show, we give out the under here and I still think that price is in range at the current numbers. I like under six and a half. 

25:37 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what? I agree, this is one of the it's funny Cause we talked about, you know, on some of our preview pods, a guy who's you know bringing over, they they get the new coach, they bring over a lot of tan. Jay norvell kind of tried that when he came over from nevada and brought some guys with them, um and it it didn't really turn into what you would call, uh, you know, wins. It didn't. It didn't really go so well in the first year and I know there's kind of a market expectation here that uh, you know, after you know five, three and eleven, five, that it should go up another level. I just don't know if, if getting to, I think six and six would be a good year for this colorado state program and where it's at, because again. 

26:23 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, fowler, nicol. 

26:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, inconsistent was a great word. I think 16 interceptions last year. Maybe he can cut down on the turnovers a little more. Obviously they've got star receiver Torrey Horton, but it's a team that you know what they return. A decent amount on defense Wasn't a very good defense. They returned some on the O-line Again. Wasn't a great offensive line either. So you know, that's that type of analysis. Do you put more into the returning thinking these guys can get better, or just the fact that they're bringing a bunch of guys back that weren't particularly good? So, even if I'm giving Jay Norvell the benefit of the doubt here in the year three and a little bit of the bump, I agree with you that I like the under six and a half Again, a little bit of schedule favorability too. But, as you said, two non-con games that that aren't very friendly um, that they'll be. You know, one or a five touchdown dog in another one there'll be a dog in verse, colorado and then some I mean going at oregon state. 

27:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
There'll be an underdog in that one that's a tough trip. 

27:22 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Going to air force is a tough trip. Uh, playing wyoming style they play at fresno, so it's one where you know they would need to win every game that they'll be expected to win, plus pull, pull. You know an upset here as as a short dog. 

27:37 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So yeah, I'm with you on the under six and a half in the weeds a little bit, but I really like their tight end, opened up their offense last year. He's gone and I thought you know horton's great wide receiver but I actually thought the best player on the team was kamara kid and defensive end he's gone. Uh, one of the nation's leaders in sacks it flat. He popped. Anytime you watch colorado state, including again that colorado game. So, uh, I don't dynamic pass rushers don't grow on trees in the G5 level, so I'm worried a little bit there. Again, 6-6 should be deemed a good season. 7-5, I think, is really pushing it for what this program can be in year three. Let's talk about another one where I gave you an early bet on this program. I'm very high on this. Higher Maybe not so much right now as we're recording this in early August, as far as the current prices, but my goodness, early on in the betting and also long-term future of this program. Love San Diego State's future with Sean Lewis. How bad was Sean Lewis? I mean Deion firing him must be terrible. Guy was out of work for a week and gets a head job at san diego state. Can you say upgrade, uh, from going from kent state to colorado now to the head man at san diego state. 

28:52
Uh, great for sean lewis. I'm happy for him. Let's see if he's got the pieces to hit the ground running here. Uh, he could I mean at quarterback. Uh, you got a you know, the highest rated recruit in the history of san diego state at least recent history and he also gets the kid from Florida State coming in that quarterback, so there might be some pieces to work with there. I thought he was very smart in the transfer portal. As far as getting some key productive guys on offense and defense, there's still some uncertainty. Am I running into the window to bet over five and a half? No, but one that I sent over to you immediately, and this is these are fan duel and kudos to fan duel for posting these so early, one that I sent you immediately, and I'm normally pessimistic about first year coaches sent you the over on their win total I. I don't think the market reacted enough for how good of a hire this is going to be yeah, I, I agree, I mean you. 

29:42 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You have to love what sean lewis has. I mean what he did at Kent State I don't know if it gets enough national publicity An impossible place to win and what he took them with here. Now, if I'm going to play devil's advocate, it would be that one of our staples of the show since we started doing it is having some concerns about programs that take a dramatic shift in offensive system, like a Wisconsin going from man ball to you know some of what, what they tried under Luke Fickle in year one. With some of the you know we're going to run more of a spread team. So to go from the Brady Hoke Stone Age offense to the Sean Lewis offense could be a bit of a transition Now, as you said, a little easier to do in the transfer portal era where you're able to bring in some new guys, shift it around Lewis, a smart, you know, a brilliant offensive mind. 

30:36
Honestly, the biggest thing I'd worry about is Sean Lewis. I don't know how long he could be if he really hits it up with San Diego State. How long is he going to be in this job? But um could be a bit of a reset on defense too. It was a team that I mean. That was the San Diego State identity, which, again, why Brady Hoke is not out of there, whereas that defense was nasty for a long time, uh, even going back before you know Brady Hoke. Uh, the names escape Rocky Long. 

31:01
Uh, yeah, I mean that that defense was that they got to get back to that. So it's also, when we talk Fresno State, san Diego State, this is a team that should acquire talent from where they're at, and was always one of the teams that had some sneaky NFL guys, especially on defense and on offensive line. So I don't know how quickly he'll be able to turn here, but this is. I tell you what, if I could bet 2025 futures already, I would take one to the window on Sean Lewis for next year. We'll see what he does in year one, though, as, again, great hire and excited to see what this team looks like, because this was not. This was, like you know, a worse Wyoming on offense here for the last couple of years. 

31:41
So yeah, they got. We'll see what they can do. 

31:46 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So good points by you. As far as you know, massive transition, uh like I think in the past could take several years to transition. I mean, san jose state was was an option football, but it was, uh like 1970s, uh, you know, three yards in a cloud of dust. Big 10 football felt like, with not the talent that the Michigans and the Ohio States had at that time. But portal's different. And if a guy like Clay Helton, who I don't think is as good of an offensive mind, can transition Georgia Southern from option football to a bowl game in year one at Georgia Southern, I think it's possible. Sean Lewis can do it and gives me confidence, not only at Kent state. What he did. 

32:24
I again, like you mentioned, didn't get enough credit, you can tell, when he got demoted to Colorado last year because the offense went from like 38 points per game to like 18 points per game, and it was that week with Shermer calling plays. I know Dion wasn't happy with his kid getting hit, but the offensive line sucked and his kids hold on to the football too long. That wasn't a Sean Lewis thing, come on. So if they can keep him for a little bit, there's some things to be optimistic. I am a little disappointed in San Diego State. Though Looks like a beautiful stadium from the outside, they didn't let me in on the inside. 

33:00 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I was even nice in the past. 

33:06 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
They didn't let me in, so I'm a little upset with that. But a brand new stadium and obviously a recruiting hotbed there. Uh, beautiful city. Yeah, let's talk. 

33:11
Another coach, another team with a new coach, and this is recent. It could be a program in turmoil here in utah state. Uh, who's been up and down if you followed along, and a guy that we, you know, won wherever he was at arkansas state and utah state immediately anderson turmoil gets fired. Uh, you know, I think last I checked he's gonna sue the school, uh for it. So a lot of off-field distractions for a team that I wasn't wild on to begin with, for, even though they got some returning experience with 14 returning stars, although I think their top wide receiver just hit the portal, he's heading the old Miss. I think that one Miss just collects everybody. Um, I, as soon as the news broke that I didn't bet the win total yet, but that's all I needed about the win total. I, I've been under five and a half and I know it's juiced a little bit here, but I, that's the only way I could go on Utah State with the turmoil yeah, I'm, you know what I honestly I'm. 

34:03 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I okay, even at the 170. I think as long as you're getting the five and a half there, I don't think this team can win six games. As you mentioned, I liked Blake Anderson a lot, a phenomenal Corey, if you ever go back and read into what happened with his wife who passed away, and kind of him going out to Utah State and making Logan you know Utah a couple you know making the run into the you know the championship game and that, and I think he was an incredible guy. I again some of the fall off last year, mixed with what just recently happened, mixed with I don't. 

34:40
I don't love a lot of what this team has coming back, especially at quarterback. I know that I mean to me, if you're bringing in Spencer Petras to like who was like retired at Iowa, to come in and be like an answer for your, I mean seriously, like that is, that's like an alarm, that's like a five alarm fire bell for me of like if you think that guy's going to come in and be your answer at quarterback or you think that's concerning, mixed with the fact that I don't know, I mean they win in the transfer. They did, I think, a lot of transfer portal plus Jucos, so I don't really know. And the fact that the guy who was mixing all this together when you're having that much turnover, then he gets fired, I don't like it. 

35:26
I could see, I could see this kind of being a bottom out year for Utah State. Oh wow, I mean I know they have Robert Morris and Temple in between USC and Utah there, so they should get a, you know, start two and two, but to win, I mean, then you need to win four games in the Mountain West. Um, and I just don't see it. I I really don't in terms as in terms of who they're going to go against, um, I like under five and a half, even with the juice yeah, let's, let's book it under five and a half wins for Utah State and Royals back at wide receivers. 

35:59 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Their second leading guy that just I mean literally in the last week transferred to Ole Miss. So that's a loss there at wide receiver, but under five and a half wins for Utah state. We got an under six and a half wins bet already for Colorado state, especially if you've been watching the weekly show. So let's see if we can find another best bet in the last four teams that we're talking about and tell me if it sounds like a broken record. But another school with another new coach san jose state, ken niyamata lolo comes in. Uh, is he gonna run the option? No, he's actually gonna run. Uh, more of a spread version. Um, actually gonna be more four wide receiver sets from san jose state. Do they have the quarterback that can throw the football? Do they have the wide receivers? I'm not sure. 

36:40
This is one that I also sent to you early. I, unlike san diego state, I'm not wild about this one particularly. I'm just not wild about the personnel six returning starters, anybody that's worth a damn. Pretty much left with brennan to go to arizona. Uh, you know, big time transition. You know I wasn't a huge fan of neomata lolo at the end of the Navy. Obviously they weren't. They fired him. I'm not sure this works out, at least in year one. So I'm more even at the current number. I'm more pessimistic, and boy that last half of the schedule. I mean there's a possibility they're an underdog in their last seven or eight games. 

37:18 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean fascinating situation I'll call it that in terms of bringing in a career you know military option guy to come in and and change the system along with you know, as you said, a lot of roster turnover, just in terms of of what they brought it is. This doesn't to me you know, we always go back to the Texas State example from last year this doesn't to me seem like the type of transition that is going to be a year one success. I think it's more of a we'll call it a year zero situation here, where they try and kind of build it up and go back to, you know, some of the the old concepts. I don't know. I just when you lose so much and you don't have a guy who's coming in and bringing in a ton of his own you know system to bring in some type of continuity, that just spells trouble for me. Um, so I think the offense might be. 

38:16
I'm a little I'm more optimistic on the offense and the defense, but, as you said, I mean they, they got it. They better beat Kennesaw State and Sacramento State, uh, and they've got to get you know at home versus Nevada, because those are the three likeliest wins and that second half of the schedule. Um, yeah you're, you're gonna be in a lot of trouble those last six, seven weeks, um. So they got to better rack them up early if they want any shot at going over. I'm with you. 

38:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I would still lean under at the four and a half. Yeah, san Jose State had downgraded double digits in my power running, so I think they take a massive step back. I thought Brennan was a really good coach there and in the weeds. But Sacramento State's not a layup in the FCS. Sacramento State's a legit team, ask Stanford. 

39:02
And speaking of this, I can't believe I haven't mentioned this yet. Blame, blame me. Uh, you know, obviously the mountain west has a deal with the oregon state and washington state. The remaining two members of the pac-12. San jose state plays both, uh, the oregon state and washington state, both on the road, and then they also still play the top two teams in the top three teams. They're at fresno, boise state, unlv. So I mean, this clearly is one of the tougher schedules in the mountain west this year. They just don't didn't catch a break whatsoever. And I again, even though it's moved to win under four and a half. Uh, we'll see, uh, if that's an additional best bet here. Uh, we'll talk to some other teams here. 

39:37
Let's talk hawaii. I think we'll be a little bit more optimistic on hawaii, although the market seems to be finally reacting to them and, uh, to say the least, returning production, to say the least. Unlike a lot of these teams we discussed in the g5 level 17 returning starters. I like what timmy chang is doing. I know it hasn't necessarily turned in the win-loss column yet, but his team fights hard. In fact, a lot of times they're playing their best football at the end of the season, which I like. I think this is by far his best team that he's had. Not a lot of slam dunk wins on the schedule, but I like that. The quarterback's coming back. I know they had a recent loss at wide receiver, but I mean they returned their top six receiver, so I don't think it's that big of a deal there. I like this Hawaii team. I mean they got two FCS teams on the schedule. I'm not sure that that means that they got to win seven games to get to a bowl game. 

40:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
They won't do that, but I think they can flirt with six wins. Yeah, no, I'm with you here. I think the offense could be. I loved the hire when it happened. It hasn't turned totally into. I think this might be the year where it can kind of break right for them in terms of getting to a bowl game, as you said. 

40:46
Connor, returning talent I don't this type of system. I think you can get away a little bit in terms of like offensive line just not having an elite offensive line, but they got a bunch of skill talent. The defense, you know it hasn't rated great. I can tell you they play kind of an all-or-nothing style. I mean last year the metrics are brutal. So I think almost a little of nowhere to go, but up in terms of the defense from where it was rated last year. But you know what I mean Northern Iowa, delaware State, sam Houston, three of the first four weeks. And that's a game where they bring in UCLA who a ton of turnover which we've seen that steam way down there. So some friends of the show thought even a little too much. But I think it's a team that you know what. Hey, it's a little frisky and it's one that I might have sprinkled a little bit of long prices here on the conference. 

41:45 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Where are we at on that one, Zach, as far as conference futures. 

41:48 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I think it's come down a bit too much I want to say I played some 60 to 1. 60 to 1?. 

41:56 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
See, when I see good prices, I'm calling you. I don't get to call when I get. 

42:00 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Where are you at at 30? I think 32 is a little thin for me, are? 

42:04 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
you? Yeah, way too thin. In fact, I was just looking as high as 70 to 1 was available just about a month ago. 

42:12 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It must have been you that wiped those out Again not one that I think is going to go to the window or one of the longer shots that I'm loving, but they get Boise at home. If you want to dream and some of the other teams coming in as well is the home schedule, so I think this team can definitely go bowling and then maybe Remember they've got to win seven to go bowling. Yeah, yeah, so All right. I don't know if we've got a bet there. 

42:42 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Are you out about over five and a half? I'm not. 

42:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm not. I'm not crazy about it. I think it gets there. I were getting pissed at us. We were giving out too much. 

43:02 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I don't know how to win with y'all. 

43:04 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I know If you follow the weekly show you also got a great number on Hawaii versus LA. 

43:09 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So yeah, that's moving. Three, four points. We're not alone there. Two more teams left here and tell me if you heard this but two teams that have new coaches in this league. Uh, that's why we like the hawaiis and some of the other teams of the world in this conference, because they have continuity. These two teams do not have continuity. We'll start with nevada. Uh, new coach that I like comes over from texas, originally was at montana state. He was the guy that got the montana state program uh, running there. His name is Jeff Choate. I was being impressed with some of the interviews. Obviously, I get a little bit of Nevada coverage here, being in Nevada and the state. 

43:49
I hate this year's schedule, to say the least. It's one of the tougher ones in the Mountain West. Boy, the steam has come in big time against them in week zero against SMU. Where are the wins on the schedule? Even when Eastern Washington, the FCS team, is a game that's not a slam dunk win. They'll be an underdog in 12. They play 13 games. They'll be an underdog at least in 12 of them. There's a reason why the win total is 2.5, and there's a reason why it hasn't moved off at two and a half. 

44:28 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I know cho thinks he's gonna uh, he expects to go to a bowl game this year. I would be stunned if they even flirted with a bowl game this year. Yeah, I mean, as you said, like like the hire, I mean this is if the in the weeds but it was montana and montana state were kind of polar opposites in the fcs for a while he was part of the, the kind of the revamp of Montana State to get them back to an elite level in the FCS. But I mean there's nothing here in terms of, you know, quarterback room. I think is rough. They brought in Shubba Purdy from Nebraska which almost like the Spencer pre-take. 

44:55
You're bringing in Shubba Purdy from Nebraska and having that be like what you might think is your answer to the quarterback room. You're not in a good spot. Defense going to be overwhelmed, talent-wise and just you know a lot of the teams we talked about either had, you know, a lot more talent than them at the top of the conference or coaches returning. That we like this is just a complete rebuild for him. I'm a little surprised he took this job, to be honest. So I this is a tough place to win um and and a program that has kind of bottomed out here recently. So this is going to be a real, I think, a multi-year turnaround for him to get them back to where he wants to be in terms of bowling or any of that. So, yeah, I yeah again. The win total solo didn't do anything with it, but I think it should be that low for a reason. 

45:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, obviously a proud program. Chris Hall of Fame are there, so there's some winning tradition, but they're off back-to-back. There were seasons in school history and I'm not sure again that it gets much better this year In the weeds and again we'll save for a lot of the in the weeds for the weekly show, but as far as to start the season, a couple of their best players might not be ready to start the season. A kid particularly they're projected starting running back from Boston College might not be ready to go at the start of the season. So there's a lot of negativity. I'll give you another negativity. They didn't let me in the stadium. They did five years ago, they didn't last week, so that bothered me. Anytime I don't get into a G5 school, I'm just like why that's Nevada Reno? 

46:28
as we call it here in Vegas. We don't even give them the distinction of calling them Nevada, we call them Reno. New Mexico is dead last, maybe in a lot of teams' power ratings for not only the Mountain West west but maybe nationwide. Here's another one where we love the coach, I'm sure. Uh, yeah, I love this hire. I think it makes sense. 

46:48
As far as new mexico is concerned, bronco men and all. Obviously he wanted to get back in the game. He's very familiar longtime defensive coordinator way back in the day under rocky long in the late 90s, early 2000s at new mexico. Uh, back in more of his region of the country where he's a longtime byu coach. Um, not a lot to work with here, to say the least, particularly on offense, although I kind of like their quarterback. I know he didn't do it, he didn't have a bunch of snaps last year, but in the, in his action that he did play on the damp beer kid, I think's pretty good. 

47:18
Seven returning stars on defense, more mendenhall's forte on that side of the ball. Maybe they'll be able to do something there. I probably would have been a little bit more optimistic on New Mexico, but again, we'll talk schedule. I mean underdog in every single game in New Mexico this year, maybe the closest one to be at New Mexico State, and I think a lot of people are surprised because the line's up and let's give FanDuel credit for posting this line. They're an underdog against Montana State in the opener and a deserving underdog if you can catch the hint there. 

47:53 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, as we you know, almost similar to Nevada, who I think has peaked a lot more recently than. 

48:03
New Mexico. Again, like the higher I just there is, this is going to be another. I mean, this is yours. This might be a year minus one here in terms of what he's had to come in with. They just have nothing in terms of a roster and weren't able to really I mean kind of scramble and bring in a bunch of Jucos or a bunch of transfer. I think it's one there. Bronco's probably content with a little bit of a year zero here and kind of trying to build it up his way. I think he might have some success. Just know, just in that his name's known in that part of the country and, you know, with some recruiting and uh being able to bring together, I just don't have in terms of being able to like players. I know devin dampier, I believe his name, you know it was a little bit uh showed some flash last year, but I mean this is basically a middle tier fcs program in terms of talent that's having to play on a Mountain West schedule. So yeah, I mean I know the under 2.5. 

49:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Zach, bring up the win total, I think I mean I'll say the big difference. I bet over 1.5 early but there's at the opposite ends of the spectrum that half win win is significant. 

49:21
I'm telling you under two and a half would be. That's the only way I could go there, because where's the three wins? I don't see the three wins we got. We're wrapping this up. We got Colorado State under six and a half. We have Utah State under five and a half. Are we going for a third one? Are we going to do New Mexico under two and a half? Are we going to do San Jose State under four and a half, or are we just going to be happy with the two? I'll let you decide. 

49:50 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm with you on the New Mexico, I think. The ceilings too, I mean, I think you and that's giving them benefit. 

49:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
out Again. Underdog in every game, yep, give him a benefit. 

49:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Out again, underdog in every game, yep, yep. And so to me it's one of those where, like I, just you might be able to. You know, I mean I don't think they're going to win the Montana State opener. Then you got Arizona and Auburn. I mean, yeah, as you said, new Mexico State and Utah State as two of the most winnable All the other games. I just I don't think most of those would be competitive. So, yeah, I agree with you that I think two and a half is the look on the under. 

50:27 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's go under two and a half. I made it two and again, because there's another show that I do I gave out over one and a half. There's a big, freaking difference when you're talking about that, and even the half win half win is typically 70 cents about that, and even the half win a half half wins typically 70 cents. At the. When you're talking 10 and a half to 11, and at the bottom end of it, one and a half to two, two and a half to down to two, it's even worth more than 70 cents. So, uh, I I'm okay with the under two and a half minus 150. That'll be the third bet. All unders. Uh here, utah state, with a new coach, colorado State coach that might be on the hot seat when it's all said and done. Too much expectations Under 6.5 there. New Mexico, even though they like Mendenhall, under 2.5 wins. There's three best bets no conference futures, right, hawaii's priced out. 

51:15 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, I agree, just a little too short of the number on the future. 

51:19 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And if you watch the weekly show, part of the Hammer Betting Network, now sponsored by FanDuel, hit the books Mondays, fridays and a special thing that we're going to do game days, believe it or not, this upcoming season you'd have gotten Boise with a plus number. We talked about it several months ago, so that'll do it for the Mountain West preview, for the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Kanish, I'm Brad Powers. For Zach Phillips, that'll do it. You just watched hit the books, part of the hammer betting network.