00:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right, welcome to another special edition of Hit the Books, part of the Hammer Betting Network, and we are previewing our conference previews for the upcoming 2024 season. Today we are talking to Sunbelt, but before I get to the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish, before I give credit to who will do a wonderful job, producer extraordinaire Zach Phillips, let's talk about a new sponsor. I'm excited about this. We have a new sponsor this upcoming season, starting with these conference previews. You might have heard of this book. I mean, they're about as big as it gets country in the United States. It's called FanDuel. You might have heard of it. Hit the Books is sponsored now by FanDuel and obviously it's an industry leader, to say the least. It's one of the best products and prices that you find in the market. Specifically, and what we like to talk about on this show college football. There's about as much college football offerings and especially at an early date, whether it's the off season, whether it's early in the week during the season nobody really does it better than fan duel, often first to market when it comes to college football prices, whether it's win totals, individual games, you name it. Great live menu as well, if you're interested in that lots of fun, different types of bets, where I know all you like those same game parlays. Obviously you can. You can get those at FanDuel, easy to use. You get fast payouts. Can't recommend FanDuel enough. 

01:28
Now I will say this we're still a few weeks away from the college football season kicking off. In the meantime, there's a little thing called Major League Baseball. That's the only thing getting us through these dog days of summer. And this summer FanDuel is hooking up all of their customers with a boost or bonus each and every day. That's right. There's something for everyone every day. For the rest of the summer, you can take your boost or bonus and bet on everything Major League Baseball related, whether it's home runs, the strikeouts, even the final score. Plus, with FanDuel you can combine your bets in a live same game parlay for a shot at an even bigger payout. So head on over to FanDuelcom and start racking up some runs in the sun kanish. 

02:09
Speaking of sun, I like that, this good transition. How about the sun belt? We talked baby. We recently did a conference preview on the mac. We talked about the downfall of the mac from where it was 10, 15 years years ago. Let's be positive on this one. I don't think there's a single conference, regardless if it's a small conference or a big conference, that's more improved or last 15, 20 years than the Sunbelt, who used to be by far the worst. I think they're on their way to being the best small conference in college football, why, geographically speaking, they are where you want to be when it comes to recruiting, uh, a recruiting profile, because they get all these kids that aren't good enough to go to the, the big schools in the sec and, my goodness, this is a conference as far as an average team power rating. They're showing it even on the field here in recent years a very deep conference yeah, as you said, I mean, this is SEC light. 

03:02 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Now what I would say is almost pretty much unquestionably now the best G5 conference and a conference this year that's absolutely stacked, I mean, on both divisions, top to bottom. 

03:16
You're out, we'll just say, because we're just coming off the Mac preview. I think there's eight teams in this conference that could win the Mac and if you put them, if you plop them in the Mac, I could be like this team might be the favorite in this one, and that's unbelievable from, as you're saying, where it was even 10 years ago, 15 years ago, even from a couple of years ago, where I don't think there was that type of separation. But now this league absolutely loaded and they've made, you know, just, I mean talk about a great deal with James Madison being like, you know, coming in, and being like we're going to poach, you know, one of the two best FCS schools that fit our geographics, fit right in fit in terms of recruiting, and now it's a conference on both sides that is, uh, is loaded, to say the least now I will say this I don't know if they're going to match last year's historic season as far as the conference, mainly because we saw three of the top teams lose their head coaches. 

04:17 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I mean, they're getting poached as far as coaching staffs, that being james madison, the two-time defending champ uh, sunbelt champion in Troy and also South Alabama. But I don't think these teams in some instances are going to take as big of a step back and we'll get to them as teams that I'd be more concerned about in other conferences like the MAAC. I am going to start at the top, though it's in Boone, north Carolina. Man, if you want to see small school places to go, boone, north Carolina has got to be one of your top of the list as far as small school stadiums. I've been there, beautiful area of the country, and it's a team that finally started getting their act together at the end of last season, obviously making the Sunbelt Championship game, and this year they're the best team. At least start coming into the season. 

05:00
As far as the pure power rating goes. You like what you got coming back 13 returning starters for them. You like some coaching continuity, unlike compared to like some of those other schools that I mentioned James Madison, troy and South Alabama. You also like the schedule. You know, outside of the road trip to Clemson, which is the only clear-cut underdog role for them, you get the big-time game against Liberty at home. You get James Madison at home. You avoid some of the powers from the west division, particularly texas state. 

05:28
Uh, I, I like this app state team quite a bit. I like their prices in the marketplace, though earlier in the summer I think the eight and a half win total price where it's at now is where it should be, but there was some better numbers there early. Uh, in the summer I was a little bit more optimistic, at least early in the summer, on the prices. On App State, even though, I will say this, not a huge fan of the head coach and the offensive line some concerns there. Unfortunately. They had a terrible tragedy their best returning offensive lineman actually died at the end of spring. 

06:02 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So that would be my one concern about this app state team yeah, no, I obviously said really a rough moment for the team there. Hopefully they can rally around. Uh, that and upcoming. But you know what, on the on the football side of things I agree with where sean clark, you know app state, it has been kind of a a feeder place for a while where you know if you, if you can go in there and you can have big-time success. You know you're looking for that next job. 

06:29
No one's really, you know the Power 5 teams aren't coming to call in for Sean Clark. That kind of leaves them in this little bit of a quandary around. You know he's good enough with the talent he gets to win, but maybe not win at the level that App State. And they expect there Joey Aguilar, a guy who's second half you know, first half of the you know a couple games you might have thought woof. They've really taken a step back here. After losing Bryce at quarterback, but second half of the year he was cooking. The offense got cooking. 

07:00
They returned a bunch, as you said, in terms of quarterback skills, position, talent and I think the offense will be very good defensively now. They were, they were young. They return a lot of talent. Can they get back to that app state. I mean, that was always their calling card when app state was winning the sunbelt and and you know being. You know, one of the better g5 teams in the country was defense that that had kind of fallen off the last few seasons. Can they get back there? To me that determines whether they're a 7 or 8-win team or a 9 or 10-win team. So, yeah, the offense will be very good, defense a lot to prove, but again, probably, player to player, the best team in this conference. With that said, again, I'm agreeing. Agree with you. Some of the early prices were more attractive. Do I want to bet them 270 in a in a conference that I think there's seven or eight teams that that can can be in this conference title game? No, that's a pass for me agree. 

08:01 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, it's kind of a little pricey. And again, trust factor is not completely there. As far as the head coach, even though it's only his second year of being a head coach in FBS action, the guy that I am starting to trust a lot is the next head coach or the next team. I don't know if there's a program as far as a power rating. From when we were talking about this team in the summer last year to how we're talking about this team right now, that's improved as significantly as Texas State and I don't think it's a one-year wonder. Gj Kenny, that coach I'm talking about, might be one of the best offensive minds young offensive minds in all of college football. Took over an incarnate word team won immediately. They were. I mean, they had North Dakota State on the ropes at North Dakota State in the playoffs, a game that they easily could have won. 

08:48
He takes Texas State year one. This is a team that never had been to a bowl game, never had a winning season in FBS play, and then they're in a bowl game. They're a legit team. Yeah, you would like to see them a little bit be more consistent on a week-in and week-out basis, but when they were on, they were on and I expect them to be on more often than not this year. I can't believe they're going to upgrade a quarterback. You lose a guy like TJ Finley. You're like, oh, I mean, they're going to take a step back this year. So what does he do? Goes in the transfer portal, gets the Sunbelt Offensive Player of the Year at James Madison last year transfer over. So I don't think the offense misses a beat. The moddy kid of running backs as good as it can be, they get the top two running backs from utep who are both really good there. 

09:29
I think and this is maybe the best offense at the at the power and not power g5 level. Um, here at texas state defense needs to be a little bit better on a consistent basis. I like the bell kid off the defensive end. I like the schedule too, especially especially when you get some you know you talk about. 

09:46
I forgot to mention App State getting that key game against Liberty when you're talking about who's going to make the playoff at this level, because obviously the G5 gets a playoff bid this year. App State hosting Liberty could be a good feather in their cap and I can tell you what could be a really good feather in Texas State's cap is having two winnable games at home against UTSA and Arizona state and they can win those two and I think they're both kind of toss-ups boy. I mean this could be, you know, the playoff favorite, at least at the G5 level, to get that bid after just week three. So I like the schedule. It's a no similar to app state. I like the pricing three months ago compared to what I do now. 

10:26
Uh, I think the market's kind of on top of this yeah, this is one that people definitely caught on, uh, in terms even today, like I'm talking a couple hours before we did this show, there was money continuing to pour in on this texas state team yeah, and you can see why I mean you listed it. 

10:42 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
the offense should be absolutely electric again. Ben Bell, who you mentioned, defensive end the only guy in college football who had a better pressure rate at the edge last year was UCLA's Latu Latu, who went 15th overall, went in the first round. 

10:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
First defensive player taken. 

10:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah. And that guy, I think he had a 21.8% pressure rate, the next best in the country Ben Bell, 20.1%. So you're talking about a big-time guy at the edge for them, a guy who has an NFL future Mix that with some of the other young talent they had on defense. And, gee, jake, somebody's cutting checks down there in San Marcos because he brought in some talent last year from the portal. He brought in some more talent this year. 

11:28
I don't know what he's selling down there, but it's working and I don't know. I mean, maybe they got the boosters you know, the NIL collectives going, because this is a very talented Texas State team and one that two years ago was not at all. He comes in, he starts bringing in guys and you talk about not just in terms of his offensive IQ but his roster management and what he's been able to do. I would say, if things go like we think they'll go, this is DJ Kinney's last and not to rain on the parade of San Marcos, but this is his last year at Texas State I would expect him to get a power job. 

12:05
Yeah, a power job or maybe an NFL OC type job after this season, if it goes how we think it'll go. With that said, on the betting aspect, this has been a popular one. If there's one left that I stink with, it would be Playoff. Yeah, yeah, that's where I was going, zach, if you can pull up, let's go, let's do it, let's do it. 

12:26
I love that bet to make the playoff Cause I think that was a lot the conference titles gotten back down, the wind totals got bet up, the to make the playoff has has kind of hung around at somewhat of a a more attractive price that hasn't gotten as beat up in the market. So I think what was it 16-1 here that I was seeing when I looked earlier? Yeah, 16-1 to make the playoff at FanDuel for Texas State. To me I think that's worth a little bit of it, because that I tell you what, if this team wins the Sun Belt and looks as attractive with that type of talent, I think there's a shot, especially after, you know, maybe a Liberty or something goes undefeated. A 10-2 Sun Belt champ with this type of talent, that looks good. 

13:18
I think the committee might say to themselves that team gives whoever they're going to face a better game, a more attractive game to play in the playoff than you know, a Conference USA Liberty who got smashed in a gamers' organ last year. So I think the narrative could be there. I like 16-1 with a little bit of a sprinkle, do you? 

13:39 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I do and I bet at exactly that price, so I love that bet. I've said this on other shows. That would be my long shot to make the playoffs favorite bet that I made. 

13:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
If I'm on the committee, I want the Sunbelt champ, I want them in there. That's my G5 team, because how stacked this conference is, I'm going to make the K, I don't care what's going on elsewhere, and I know some people like Boise probably runs the table first. You know they're, they're, you know peasant schedule. But hey, you give me a, a the Sunbelt champ. Texas state wins this, uh, the Sunbelt this year and, and you know, 10, 11 wins. I think they got a real good shot to be that playoff entrant. 

14:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You bring up a good point. It is a TV show, so you've got to think about what would be attractive. This Texas State offense, like we've said, could be the best at the G5 level, although I think Boise State probably gets benefit out for brand recognition Fair, but I still like it. I bet it at this exact price. I love that we're going in on a long shot to make the playoff. Can you imagine us saying this a year ago when I was betting under their win total at four and a half and now I'm thinking that they can make a college football playoff? That just shows you what he's done and they were such an unknown last year. He hit a home run on almost everybody. They took with them from Incarnate Word other players that he brought in. Very smart individual. This would be his last year in San Marcos. Uh, let's talk about a guy with we've been big fans of for a while. Uh, at the fcs level, and I think it was a really smart hire for james madison. 

15:12
We love bob chesney, their new head coach. We don't necessarily love what they come back, what? What has coming back? So as returning production, only six returning starters, basically half the team literally, and almost all the good players left with Cignetti to go to Indiana. So a little bit of a rebuild here for Chesney. But I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and I won't talk at length here. But one of the reasons I've given him the benefit of the doubt is they play maybe one of the weakest schedules in the Sun Belt and I don't see a lot of games outside know games outside of at North Carolina, at App State, that are scaring me. In fact I think they're probably favored in their 10 other games that on the schedule. So are they anywhere near what they were from a power rings aspect each of the last couple of years? No, you got to downgrade them, at least a touchdown. But my God, I don't know if the win loss record gets that much worse this year just due to a relatively advantageous schedule? 

16:08 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'd say nobody. There's no show in any facet of college football. Even if in the great Northeast that loves Bob Chesney like we do on this show, I cannot tell you how much I mean. You talk about after losing Cignetti being kind of like where are we going to go? I love that, hire, I love you. You talk about this was a guy who, when he was at Holy cross, had South Dakota state on the ropes in the playoffs at South Dakota state scholarship team. 

16:40
Yeah, non-scholarship team to even make it hard. I mean this is hard. I mean you've seen a lot of the premium FCS coaches. When they come they usually bring a lot of their guys with them. At Holy Cross he didn't really have FBS-level talent and that many. I think he brought one or two guys on the defense, but those guys weren't there. So he's doing this at the FCS level and what he was able to do there is fantastic. I think he will with with james madison's budget and recruiting chops, I think he'll get it rolling. But, as you said, they did lose a ton of talent. Um brought in some guys I know dylan morris comes over from washington. Uh brought in a you know a couple of guys from the lower levels that that you know to fill some gaps. As you said, I think from a win total perspective, this could be a team where you know the schedule. It's a nice transition year in terms of-. 

17:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That's going to look high for a lot of people, but it's just that they play such a weak schedule. 

17:36 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, it's just one, I don't think it's not one, even at 850 that I'm. I don't think this is a Sunbelt championship team. It, you know, could break right for them to get, you know, the right games in there. Maybe they make the championship. But I wouldn't have them, as you know, I would say they're more talent-wise fifth, sixth, seventh best team in the Sunbelt and being priced up there, obviously because of the schedule. So nothing for me on where the win total is at, or or the conference futures. But um, hey, love, love the hire, love the direction of the program yeah, and I am not about their win total. 

18:12 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So I and we haven't seen too much movement, a little bit on the under, but it's not like it's moved to halfway, it's just the juice has moved a little bit. But uh, love, like you mentioned, love the hire. And if, oh, you guys just mentioned some random South Dakota State game in the playoffs, go watch Holy Cross play Boston College last year. Go watch Holy Cross Should have beaten Army. Go watch that game. That game was very misleading. They dominated Army in the box score. So he's a really good coach. I'm just saying you know, look out in the future and they are not afraid to spend money there. They have facilities. I've been there. This is a program that's not going away. 

18:48
Louisiana's next A team that a lot of people are extremely high on. This Louisiana team, whether it's wind toll, conference, futures I originally took a pretty good position. At least I thought I was anti-pessimistic on Louisiana. I even told you under eight and a half wins. I thought was good to go, because I don't like the coach that much. He's entering his third year off back-to-back losing seasons. I think a lot is expected of this team to automatically make that jump. Now I will say I've upgraded their power rating as much as any team in this conference. The strength of schedule is relatively weak. I can kind of see it. You're at texas state, don't like you there? I still like app state better than you. Uh, you know, I two lane games, kind of a toss-up at wake forest. Uh, I boy, a lot of people seem to be higher on louisiana than me. What were you at on this team? 

19:40 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm, I'm, you know what I? I I'd love to go some back and forth here, but I'm in lockstep with you. I can't believe. I mean, I will say, of the conference futures that are out there right now, this would be like the least attractive price to me is betting Louisiana at where it's at currently, at the 550. I want no part of that. I mean there's teams, I would almost say the next four, five, six teams in a row. I would rather bet at bigger prices than taking this 550. I just don't think this team is particularly elite in any aspect. As you say, after Napier left, you know it's so big time hard. 

20:22 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
That's not good when you're going from 13-1 to losing record. 

20:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Right, right, it's so big time hard. That's not good when you're going from 13 and one to losing record, right, right. So you know, do some new, as I'll say here, I just haven't you know particularly. I know they bring back a decent amount there on a lot of the offensive line and you know the run the ball and so I see it in some aspects some of the you know the positivity, but the ceiling on this team to me is not Sunbelt champion. So no, I'm, I'm with you. I know we, we both took part in some of that early FanDuel. You know regular season win, total number and hey, what, guess what If it gets back there? 

20:59 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'm fine, again yeah. 

21:03 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I say I don't mind that was one we did hit at FanDuel, so yeah, I know that I will say at seven and a half it's probably a pass for me, but in eight or eight and a half, if it gets back there, I'd be. I'd be no problem. Double dipping in that in that pool for some more under there. 

21:26 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
This is in the weeds. They got to figure out quarterback and I know Woldrich and Fields and stuff are back. But the guy I really liked for them last year, zion Chris, before he got hurt I was like, oh, this is a guy you can build a program around, at least at the G5 level. He transferred, he's out to Houston, so Willie Fritz knows what he's doing there. So I think that's a sneaky loss. Where you're looking at Statista, zeon Chris, whatever they got these guys coming back, I think they were building it. You know the going to be built around him. Nice guys, I am there. So, yeah, I'm not as wild about this team. Uh, and I know people are gonna say regression because they have such a terrible record in close games last couple years. Hey, maybe it's just bad coaching. He's a young coach not making you know in a bunch of close games, which I expect to be the case even this year and I got a guy that's proven that he doesn't make the right decisions under not at seven and a half though. So let's, let's wait. There's enough people giving out overs on this team that I think we're going to maybe see it. So make sure you're watching it. The books sponsored by fan duel, the weekly show as we get closer and closer towards the season. 

22:25
Let's talk next couple of programs. We're going to talk about big time transitions, big time downgrades because they got new coaches. South Alabama grades because they got new coaches uh, south alabama. We'll talk first now. Maybe there'sa little bit more continuity here than than at troy. But south alabama, new coach, apple white uh, you might have heard of him. Texas quarterback, uh, you know, actually was uh nick saban's first offense coordinator in alabama, but that's how much of his track record and was the offense coordinator here. So there's a little still some continuity here. But only eight returning stars. They lose a bunch of guys. I'll say sneakily and that's not a word, but I like using it I like the quarterback. Remember, we got to see Lopez a couple times. I thought he hung in there tough against Troy in a bad spot last year and I also like that we. What I love about bowl games now is they're kind of forget, you know. Know, all capping off the season, they are more becoming more and more preview for the upcoming season, because a lot of guys opt out. 

23:22
Uh, and south alabama a lot of the key players that weren't starters all last season but did play in the bowl game went out and destroyed eastern michigan, lopez being one of the stars of that game at quarterback. So this is a team that I thought was probably look, I downgraded them more than a touchdown. Statistically they were much better than their record last year, but I thought the market was kind of too down on them, at least in the early pricing yeah, I agree, I'm not, you know, the biggest major. 

23:49 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't love major Applewhite, uh, as as a coach. And John, I don't think his you know ceiling is that great. But for you know what, for a south alabama in his first year, I I don't think it's a you know what I would call a, a bad hire, a disastrous hire. Um, I agree, I mean the entire offensive line returns. I don't think carter bradley was exactly particularly an elite player himself. So to say that you know geo lopez, who I think showed some flashes, could come in and kind of match that production Plus, you know they were relatively active in the portal. 

24:20
So you know, yet replacing Colin Lacey is going to be tough with Damian Webb's out. So yeah, it won't be as, maybe overall as talented a team as they had last year, but still, I think a lot to like on this team and I'm kind of you know what. It's not an attractive enough price for me to want to play. Uh, I don't think the ceiling is conference champion, especially in a tough conference. But I'd probably lean a little bit towards, uh, being a bit more optimistic. On the rental, but again, one I haven't't gotten involved in on either way, but I kind of like this roster, more so than kind of the negativity in the market. 

25:02 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Where are we at on the win total on this one, because there's starting to be some people releasing stuff now. Yeah, it's a little too pricey. Shop around If you get a little bit better juice, like a net minus 135 or less range over 6.5, I think is good, but not a 160 because that's getting priced closer to 7 there. So, yeah, as always, shop around a little bit there. But we love FanDuel here. 

25:27
Next team Troy. I mean not hardly any continuity whatsoever, only five returning starters. New coaching staff lost a really good coach in John Summerall. I came in and won immediately here, not expecting the same for Jared Parker who comes over from Notre Dame as an offense coordinator. Next results there at Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame people for the most part were happy that he's going to be the Troy head coach and that they upgraded. I downgraded Troy's power rating 10.5 points and I'm usually conservative in those areas, not expecting much for the. I mean, at least comparatively speaking the two-time defending Sunbelt champs, probably fighting just to get the ball eligibility this year. I don't know if I can say it any better. 

26:10 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean this in terms of fall off. I think this is one of the risks. This is not a program that has a ton financially going for it. Do not love the hire and I know you're plugged into the ND stuff down there and, as you said, not a lot of people really go into the tissue box when he was leaving. So I don't love that Mix in all of the. I mean it's a team that was just stacked on defense Best G5 defense last few years, I think, almost without question. I remember what they did at South Alabama because I remember, because I had South Alabama futures at some great prices there On the road there. That defense was just absolute nails. Yeah, two years ago I had South Alabama futures at some great prices there on the road there. That defense was just absolute nails. 

26:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, two years ago. I know what you're saying, yeah. 

26:59 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, and now you know and you know what. All good things eventually come to an end. So, yeah, it's going to look a lot different, troy. In terms of what they brought back, it's not much. I don't think they haven't been active enough in the portal to fill the holes. So yeah, I think, unfortunately, I kind of lean towards an under 6.5 here as far as a win total. Where are you on? 

27:29 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I can't get there at that price. Oh, yeah, yeah, because I mean I'm still looking at it. Uh, nevada's an easy game, florida a m. So there's two wins in non-conference ul monroe, we're gonna talk about them. They're terrible. Uh, yeah, I'm just not there. I think southern miss is at home. That's probably a win. Uh, yeah, I'm just not there. I would probably lean in there. Not best bet, though not the current numbers. Uh, we could come back to it if you want to go lean in there. Not best bet, though not the current numbers. 

27:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
We could come back to it If you want to go under six and a half best bet. I mean I wouldn't say it's a bet, I definitely. You know I'd lean that way. I don't know if I'd put it in the best bet category because I know there's been some better price out, but I would lean under. I just struggle to see this team getting to seven. 

28:13 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think we got to bet on the next team, a fun one, because everybody I know wants to bet a little to win a lot and we'll see. Maybe you're too anti this coach, but Arkansas State's the next team in line and I'll tell you why I like this Arkansas State team. I follow recruiting and I think it's kind of a precursor. You can kind of see it coming down the pike and I hated what I saw from Butch Jones as far as his first couple of years here but finally clicked last year. That was his best team and I think this year's team's even better. And I look at recruiting. Why do I bring it up? Because Arkansas State's had stacked the other three top 80 classes together in three straight years. Maybe doesn't sound like great. That's really good at the G5 level. They have three straight years in the top 80. So I think you know in some aspects this is going to be one of the most talented rosters in the Sun Belt. I like their young, dynamic quarterback. That's when they took off last year, when Rainer took over at quarterback. 

29:10
Let's have some fun here in the conference futures market when you're talking about new coaches at South Alabama Troy, james Madison we didn't like some of the price movement, we think Louisiana is a little overrated. Too much buy on, obviously Texas State so far. I like Arkansas State A long future to win the conference 16-1,. I'm okay with that. Yeah, I mean this is. 

29:35 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
They brought in, not only did they have, uh, you know, a Rainer, kind of kind of basically get it going second half of last year, um, they brought in, you know, timmy McLean from UCF, um, malik Hornsby this is a team that there's some weapons. Yeah, they got some weapons. They got some exciting athletes. Uh, that's a pretty stacked you know, uh, athletic room for, uh, for, you know, at the g5 level. So, and I agree, as you mentioned, they returned some nice talent. They've been recruiting, well, kind of like this year and again butch jones. 

30:12
Now I wouldn't they're not gonna be on the on the Joey K Hall of Fame for coaches here, but I tell you what he I don't mind you know it started off bad, real, bad, real ugly. He has slowly been, because I tell you he replaced Blake Anderson, one of my favorite all-time coaches at the G5 level, and what he was able to do at Arkansas State and then Utah State before being let go recently, but I thought this tenure was gonna crater. He's been able to kind of claw back out of there and Butch Joe finally get to a year where, like, this team should definitely be a bowl team and maybe can make a little noise. I don't mind that for a sprinkle there. As far as conference title future, so yeah, I in, especially because you know we've talked that there hasn't been that many G5 futures that we've loved in terms of, you know, any long shots. That's one I think's got a little juice. 

31:06 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I think so, boy, I thought he'd been fired last year. If you watch those first two games against Oklahoma, memphis, you're like he's cooked, he's done, and then they just they turn it on. Sometimes that happens when you start stacking recruiting classes together. Michigan and iowa state I don't like non-conference but man conference schedule. Look texas state. We love texas state. There's a reason why. But I'll say that they get south alabama and troy at home. They don't play app state they don't play james madison, so this team. State they don't play james madison, so this team it would. I mean wouldn't be a stunning, you know shock to see him and you know, definitely late in the season with a chance to get to the sunbelt championship game. So I'll take that at 16 to 1. 

31:45
Uh, what win total? What's the win total? That's been all over the market. It's open. As low as five. I've seen as high as six and a half. Uh, kind of depends there, it's all over the board. Yeah, I don't want six and a half. It kind of depends there, it's all over the board. Yeah, I don't want six and a half. Nope on that one. And you can see why the six and a half is juiced to the under. So there's a little bit of indifference on this team as far as how to price them. We're a little bit more optimistic. 

32:06
Another team that's kind of meandering in the market different schools of thoughts on this team because they got a much different roster than what they've had in the last three, four years. That being coast of carolina, second year for their head coach, who I thought actually did a decent job last year, particularly in the bowl game beating san jose state to get the eight wins. Coast carolina is up next. Uh, you know, I know a lot of people are saying grayson mccall's gone. Grayson mccall wasn't playing quarterback for coastal the last half of the season. They actually got decent quarterback play. Uh, the problem is they got a lot of roster turnover, even though 12 returning stars but man, everybody else it seems like you know guys that are too deep are gone. You and I bet an over five and a half early. There's a lot of people coming back in under six and a half. I prefer our over five and a half still on this team. 

32:52 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I tend to agree with you. 

32:53 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You know it's a program and don't let me know, so we can get heads back a full one, different. 

33:01 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, I, I listen, I I like the. I know some others in the market, like the, uh, the under six and a half. I prefer our, our over five and a half position. 

33:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think they've got I mean especially, you know, starting out the first four weeks four out of five very winnable games uh, and I don't think even virginia is that great, where they, you know, go like as far as we get them at home, they'll be fired up to have that game, yeah so, uh, it's a team, especially, you know, in the non-con, that I I just I kind of like how the schedule shapes up. 

33:31 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
they brought in I I would say they brought Noah Kim in from Michigan State, who was decent over there for some depth at the quarterback room to have, you know, go along with Ethan Fasco and I think Ted Hudson as well. So they've got some options at quarterback. They brought in some other transfers. It's a program that I think recruits decently well has done all right in the portal, bringing some guys there Kind of you know a place that's in the coastal Carolina and not hard to get people to, you know, to the beach there. 

34:01 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm not a beach area, if you're not familiar. 

34:03 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I think the schedule sets up all right. I think there's enough still on the team. You know, again they lost a decent amount but I think they brought in enough to kind of stem the tide. I just don't see this team falling off a cliff to like four, five wins, that type of thing. So again, I think it'll be a six and six or better type scheme, probably not a conference championship threat but one that yeah, if that gets, you know, again it's moved around a little bit, but if the negativity keeps the four in, I would be that's another. Call it the hit the books double dip. That would be another one at five and a half, even with some juice. 

34:46 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I wouldn't mind going back in on we might have to coin that because we do obviously a couple shows each week. We might hit the books double dip. 

34:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I like that. Yeah, yeah, tell you know, uh, zach, zach, to make sure we got that. 

34:59 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, you know yeah yeah, we might be doing that uh more than this year. I like that uh also, this is in the weeds, but you know we're getting more closer to the season a little bit more liquidity in uh, week one markets very intriguing game that they play at Jacksonville State. We're seeing more money on Coastal. Did you see that that went from above three to three in the last couple of days on the market getting trade. So that tells me we're probably, you know, outside, you know uh, a wind total market can be obviously less liquid. Uh, and some people just don't even bother because you're tying up money. I. I think reading the tea leaves a little bit more in that week one game at jackson will stay with more and more money coming on coastal tells me that I like our over five and a half position there. Uh, a team that we don't like as much. 

35:47
Next up marshall, uh, only seven returning starters. And keep in mind this is not like they got a new coach. This is a coach that should be entering the prime of his tenure here after getting things going early, including an outright upset over Notre Dame just a couple years ago. But man, a lot of tunnel roster turnover, to say the least Bring in 30-plus transfers, but lost 30-plus transfers and also lost potentially what was supposed to be one of their big incoming transfers the quarterback, the kid from Wake Forest. And all of a sudden, nope, he's not going to be the quarterback. So I don't like the schedule. Virginia Tech and Ohio State might bang you up early and when not having a lot of continuity. I'm a little bit more pessimistic on this Marshall team. I don't think they make a bowl game. 

36:35 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, this is one where you know we talk, we usually, and we talked up Texas State and what DJ Kinney was able to do in terms of personnel management transfer portal, bringing in On the. I would say, the majority of the time, though, we usually tend to lean more pessimistic when a team does that and you're doing almost a a full roster overhaul here, um, and that that's kind of where I'd be with marshall. Uh, didn't really love either of the mitch griff or braylon braxton who they brought in. Um, as far as the quarterback room, I mean everything, everything. New receivers, tight ends, couple offensive line spots, a ton on defense. It's just like a. You know, we shipped everybody out bringing a new in and Charles Suff, I mean it's a Marshall team. 

37:22 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Should that be happening in year four? I don't think so. 

37:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That's the problem is, you know, when it's year one or two and a guy and you're kind of changing that out, then I think there can be some more uh, what we'll call optimism in year four, especially when they had some success previously. Yeah, I don't, I don't love that, that trend line there. So, um, yeah, not not particularly optimistic of where this program's heading at the moment and did not love, uh, especially at quarterback, some of the guys they brought in. 

37:56 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So let's do a little cross promotion here. I don't know how the algorithm works for YouTube, but if you're not, if you're just watching because you're a fan of the Sun Belt, you're watching a conference preview to get you ready for the upcoming season. We also do a weekly hit the book show all off season and as news is breaking that the quarterback from Wake Forest, mitch Griffiths, wasn't going to come to Marshall and you know he was just going to end his career we gave out under six and a half wins. Market has agreed so far it's moved to a full win, but we gave that out live on the show. I remember that as one of our best bets. It's like let's go ahead under six and a half wins. Here we go, baby, so love it. 

38:36 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Next up, no, I was going to say I love under 6.5. 5.5 would be a little bit of a question. 

38:40 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, we're not recommending that. 

38:41 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Under 6.5. 

38:42 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We're not recommending that. Georgia Southern next up Boy, another kind of coach that could go either way this year, with Clay Helton in year three. He's done an okay job transitioning Georgia Southern from the option offense. But last year left a little bit to be desired, especially the bowl game and the reports that were coming out of that bowl game Speaking of the Coastal Carolina and they're in the Myrtle Beach area sounds like Georgia Southern was participating in some of the activities off the field in there got blown out. 

39:13
It's a tough team to tolerate. Again, a lot of guys you know they're key guys not coming back. Uh, it's a team that you know I'm, I me personally, I'm a lot more pessimistic on it, at least when I look at wind total Market. I bet the under uh Boise State, I bet big as far as week one. That's fading. Georgia Southern, so, uh, southern. So I don't see a lot of surefire wins on this schedule. Nevada probably on the road, although that's not a slam dunk in non-conference, obviously the FCS game and maybe at Georgia State arrival. But there is the possibility that they're an underdog in their last seven games. And oh yeah, by the way, they have not finished the season very well the last couple of years under Helton. So I'm kind of more in the under five and a half on this team. 

39:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, no, I mean, and this is last year one of the, I think, five worst defenses in the entire country and I know they bring a lot back. There's a lot of young guys, so a lot of mistakes being made by was just brutal on defense this year. And this is a not, I mean, you have to say, is Clay Helton system, is it a Mike leech? I can plug anybody into this and they'll throw, for you know that type of yardage Cause I, you know, the quarterback room for a team that is going to have to be driven by offense and quarterback play, I don't, there's, there's not a guy that I particularly love. 

40:37 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
No, I agree. Who's going to be that guy? I don't know if they had. You knew who the quarterback was going to be the last couple of years to transfer. 

40:43 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yes, and now that that to me is a big question mark. And if this system and this offense doesn't have a functional, or I would say a plus quarterback, then then this, then everything that Helton structures the team around falls apart. So again, could we be surprised by a couple of the guys maybe that they have there, but I didn't like Dexter Williams at Indiana, they had a couple other guys in camp, so it looks like the battle will go into the fall. And if this team can't put up 4,000 yards passing, that type of thing that that clay helton did in year one, year two, uh, it ain't gonna be carried by the defense. And and I just don't see you know a lot else to like here and in terms of what they brought in some division, two guys wide receiver, so he were really kind of scraping the barrel here to, uh, to kind of, you know, backfill what they lost, um, and I don't think it's going to be enough. 

41:37 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah. So we'll see if we've got better bets on the last four or five teams that we've got here, but I'd certainly lean under five and a half there, agreed. Old Dominion's next. Maybe we have a best bet here. 

41:49
Speaking of pessimism, I have a lot of it on Old Dominion this year, particularly because of the schedule. I think it could be the toughest schedule, not only in the sunbelt, but one of the toughest at the g5 level. Uh, because I look at it, I don't have. I look at my power rings, I project them out. That's what I bet on. Uh, I don't have a single game on their entire 12 game schedule for old dominion this year where I have my clear favorite zero, uh, the. Yeah, there can be some toss-ups there, but nine of the 12 underdog and then the three favorite roles basically right around one. So, boy, they're up against it. And not only that, but I don't like a lot of the lack of returning production, particularly on offense. Don't see it. A lot of their skill guys that I liked last year are gone. Even some skill guys on defense that are gone in the secondary that I like that that ended up transferring to power schools. 

42:40
Uh, and then the, obviously the best player on the entire team is henderson, a linebacker, the absolute tackling machine, but he's coming off a significant injury and knocked him out of the bowl game. Is he going to be healthy this year? Is he going to be? You know, even if he is, he's going to trust that leg. Uh, sometimes when you've got a significant injury, yeah, you're just not the same. So if he's not the same, you're all leader on defense. I I don't know where the slam dunk wins on this schedule. Man, I don't see it. I'm under four and a half. 

43:07 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That's my best bet I'm with you, uh, I mean 11 one score games last year, uh, for this ODU team and it's one that kind of got some of the, probably the positive variance in some of those games. And now I just, in some cases and as you see, the schedule obviously the non-con is really tough and then it didn't really in terms of in conference I I feel like they just they got, you know, they got the, the short end of the, the stick here with all of the teams that were kind of what we would say down on they. They didn't get most of them, they, they, they ended up having to play you know the, the cream of the crop. 

43:51
uh, in all these they've got the texas state, the app state, the arkansas who like James Madison, so even at Coastal Carolina. 

43:59 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We're high on BG. 

44:00 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
We're high on Virginia Tech. 

44:02 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think East Carolina is much improved this year. South Carolina some people like more than me in the market. I mean every team that they face. We're kind of like all the teams we hate, they don't play All. 

44:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
the teams we love, they don't play All the teams we love, they do play, yeah, so I'm with you there. I just think they got a really tough schedule break. It's a pro. I think there's some. 

44:21
You know this is not a old dominion, it's kind of a it just it is what it is. They're a bottom tier Sunbelt program that that I mean, you know had had punched above its weight for a little bit. And you know Ricky rain added, you know, adam, at six and seven for a little bit. But I mean this is usually a bottom of the Sunbelt type program at a really tough place to win in a conference now, where a lot of the conferences is kind of trending on the upwards, um, and, and it just has has more, you know, better players, better talent than they do. So, um, yeah, and as you said, henderson, you know all all conference, everything in terms of it. But is he going to be, is he going to be at 100? Because he, he has to dominate for them to, you know, even, you know, be in a lot of games. So, yeah, I agree with you. I think best bet, we can go under on this one. 

45:09 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Love it and, similar to Charles Huff, I mean this is year four or five, I don't know. You can't count the COVID season because they didn't even play football, but you shouldn't be having this much transfer. I know you're going to get raided in a little bit, but man, to have that amount of transfers again, I don't know. I to me that doesn't give me positive vibes. Speaking of transfers a lot, but there's a reason behind this one georgia state's next in line. Talk about a coach putting a tough spot. I mean he's hired during spring practices, uh, where the head coach has a couple of spring practices, sean elliott, and decides oh, I'm out of here, I'm not even going to go for a coordinator job, I'm just going to go for an assistant coaching job at a skilled position at South Carolina. 

45:50
So McGee, I thought was a tremendous hire for such a late in the process move, for Georgia State Comes over from the Georgia staff. Filled out his coaching staff pretty well with at least some experience there, but still you got to downgrade Georgia state significantly by the touchdown. So much uncertainty. I think he did it about as good of a job as he could trying to fill out this roster in a portal that they are kid used to be a Penn state and Pitt a quarterback. We'll see if he can take the job. Other guys are in the mix of quarterback. I haven't bet it yet, but you know, just generally speaking, I want to be pessimistic on Georgia State. 

46:29 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean it's a tough, really tough spot to be in there with kind of the spring turnover, yeah, and then having to bring in guys and, you know, see what you can grab out of the portal there. They did get some kind of maybe high-ce ceiling guys that haven't worked out at other places, but it's going to be quite a task. For Del McGee I agree, it has some potential and to be able to get that guy, you know, after kind of the turnover and the coaching window is all closed. But you know, I think 30 plus out, 30 plus in in. So, as we've said, and you know, that'll be kind of a staple of this show when you're and again year one, so maybe a little bit more optimism, but when you're turning over that much your roster, uh, I tend to lean more negative than positive. So, um, with that said, I, I haven't, I haven't gotten involved on their window, yeah, I haven't bet it yet. 

47:22 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think if uh, you know, you see the juice there at FanDuel if it's slightly less, like $0.20, $0.30 less towards the under, instead of paying that that's almost treating it like it's four. If it was minus $1.34 instead of minus $1.64 at FanDuel, I think I'd be involved. So shop around. I want to read more fall camp. I guess I'm having you know. I agree with you. I want to take a pessimistic approach with these first-year coaches' roster turnover. But then I still remember seeing a guy that shocked us all, GJ Kinney, last year, who I was so pessimistic about and he just crushed my expectations. I knew I had a loser in week one when he beats Baylor. So I want to read how fall camp is going on a few of these before I get too involved on some of these first year coaches. A couple more left is all Southern miss could be. I like this coach, but he's just had bad injury luck and now he loses a lot of his best players. 

48:17
Only six returning starters for Southern. Miss Will Hall brings in some guys I think they can be much better at quarterback. Brings in the kid from Florida state, but Frank Gore jr. Will Hall brings in some guys. I think they can be much better at quarterback. Brings in the kid from Florida State, but Frank Gore Jr, who was pretty much their all everything the last couple years, finally departs. Hey, I'm more pessimistic on this year's team. I think they could be underdogs in 10 of their 12 games and we saw some win totals in that four-and-a-half range. I'm more pessimistic on Southern Miss this year. 

48:44
You know, Uh-oh, we got a disagreement. 

48:47 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You know what I might scurry on this. I do, like you know what Rodmaker to come in. I thought it was a nice pick and I agree with you, they have been. 

48:56 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah. 

48:56 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Rodmaker's a good, that's a good move. Yeah, ultra super reliant on Frank Gore for a while, line on Frank Gore for a while. Um, they they took, like this just insanely aggressive blitz defense last year which I, I don't know. I kind of like that when you don't have that much going on. Um, you know, in terms of talent, you just kind of, and now again they gave up a ton of big plays, but uh, it was, it was a style I I tend to like the coach as well will hall, it hasn't totally come together in any of the you know the, the, the teams he's had so far. I probably, I think I bet this team, uh, a lot of you know thinking they're the you know the upside would go, would come together in a you know in a few cases, um, what's that zach pull up. 

49:43 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh up that pricing on the win total. 

49:48 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I think I need a three and a half. 

49:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Of course it's four and a half. You need three and a half All right. 

49:56 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
If you gave me a heavy juice three and a half I think I'd be in no. Four is probably the right number. 

50:04 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Four is the right number on this team. Four is the right number. Yeah, give me three and a half. No. 

50:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean it's one side. Let's say, maybe we got somebody. 

50:14 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
And you know four is going to push, Don't worry about it. 

50:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
We're the new FanDuel guys here. Give me three and a half. 

50:19 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, no, no, you can bet on a fan doing it. You're not betting it with me. 

50:25
I think four is the right number for them. One more team and bringing up the rear, to say the least, ewan Monroe, who doesn't have much as far as facilities Although they did, I did see they struck up some social media love, deservedly so. Going to have some new helmets that are pretty sharp. They'll make some waves, but I don't know if they're going to make any waves outside of fashion on the football field this year. Only seven returning starters from a team that already enters this season on a 10 game losing streak and after the Jackson state game. We're talking about a team that's probably a significant underdog, at least a two touchdown underdog in 10 of their 12 games, and then I'll still be an underdog against Southern Miss. So not expecting much. There you go. Look at that, see. That's why he's the producer extraordinaire. I love those helmets. That gives you a cool look. 

51:14 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That's nice. Now I mean listen, maybe upgrade them a little. You know 10 or 15 cents in the market for that. 

51:21 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean that for that. Yeah, I mean that's somebody at least using it. You don't have much of a history you've, since you joined the fbf 30 years ago. You've only been. 

51:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You don't need to have the same helmet you did in 1946 yeah, you can't, so I like it. 

51:34 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'm in. Look, I get accused of being a boomer. Uh, old man yelling at clouds. I like that. Look a lot. In fact, I like a lot of what people are doing the jerseys and stuff. In the last year or two, after wandering around in the stupid wilderness for 20 years of stupid jerseys people are doing, making some good, fashionable advice, that being one of them, strike up some some, hopefully some positive momentum. They did some things in the portal, some interesting guys. They got a four-star, juco kid. We'll see how that works out. Uh, first four-star ever for uo monroe. He's on the defensive line, a 300 pounder. Maybe, if he works out, that could be a. You know, we'll see, but they ain't got much. Vincent's a decent hire for this program. I thought he probably should have gotten a full-time gig at uab and not trend dilfer, uh. So I just think you got to give him time. This is a losing. This is one of the worst jobs in the country, so it's going to take three, four years in my opinion. 

52:32 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
This. I tell you what, like. I'll give you the 15 transfer. So 15 portal transfers from other FBS, fcs school, 27 Jucos 27. That's on top of the 15 transfers they brought it. I don't remember 27 juco's is like when. That that's like pre-transfer portal, when you get like a lower level job and the only kids you could get in one year that were eligible were juco's. That that's like a throwback there. 27 shows, uh is so. I mean this is a brand new team, with, that said, probably going to be a rough year one. I know the win total is juiced heavy under on the two and a half it should be. 

53:15 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I know I think optimistic is two and ten. 

53:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean it's going to be a tough introductory year here, although UAB trent dilfer, come little little revenge spot in year two, jackson state fcs. Could they be two and oh to start the year? Yeah, I don't think so. I don't think so either, but probably oh and two, and then, you know, one and 11. But um, oh, listen. Well, this only caveat I'll say is we just listed. There's like 45 new guys. Maybe they hit on a decent amount of them in the team. 

53:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, and we could be wrong. 

53:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That's all I got. 

53:53 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, that's where you start betting. 

53:56
That's. You know, this is the type of team. There's quite a few of them. We got to watch them early weeks, yeah, and maybe we'll find some. Hey, I like what I'm seeing here. Market will be too, you know, too slow to adjust and maybe not for them to win a bunch of games, but maybe we find some prices we like as far as betting them on individual game bases, maybe we like what we see against Jackson State, uh, and we bet them against UAB at home as a double-digit home underdog. We'll see, because we I don't think we either like uh, dilfer, yeah, closing what did we give out? Win total Old Dominion under, is that it? 

54:28 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, oh, arkansas, state Arkansas. 

54:31 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
State conference future. 

54:33 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Is that it, though Texas State a little sprinkle to make the playoff? 

54:38 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
There we go, that's three. That's going to be enough. Abc one, two, three, that's enough right. 

54:44 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Okay, you know what Plenty more to come too, in terms of conference, future stuff. 

54:49 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We will have a stacked portfolio. I'm guessing we'll have 30-plus bets. We did a very good job last year. And then you know the difference between last year and this year, not only our sponsor FanDuel, who we love, but we were doing we weren't doing a lot of off-season stuff and we've been giving out on our weekly show, you know, win total bets all off-season, where I think we just got it kick-started last year with a conference preview so we had like 40 or 50 bets. So a little bit less volume as far as these conference previews, but we'll still give you some. We've got more volume as far as the weekly show. But for the man, the myth, the legend himself, joey Knish, producer extraordinaire, zach Phillips, I'm merely Brad Powers. Thank you to our sponsor FanDuel. We'll talk to you in the next conference preview here on Hit the Books.