The WNBA Has a BIG PROBLEM... | Presented by Kalshi

00:00 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
coming up in today's episode of Circle Back. 

00:02 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, I mean, at this point I'm working more than half the Canadian staff, so there's no surprise on that. Let's go ahead and get started. 

00:09 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
You know, in all seriousness I know I stutter, it is who I am Just got to take it. 

00:16 - Joey Knish (Host)
And he's not okay. Chris, that's totally separate from the stuttering, but he's not okay. 

00:21 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
You know we're the weird ones for taking this seriously. This is supposed to be kind of a fun, entertaining product. I have no problems with these guys sucking at betting and, honestly, the fact that they're not pretending to be guys who win at betting is fine If you can't get the bets. 

00:36 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
Your record doesn't mean anything. Like I could probably be up thousands of units in the last two years if I took all the lowest hanging fruits that you can get $7. 

00:46 - Joey Knish (Host)
Maybe there's then a Sophie Cunningham branded. You know one of those, or you know, maybe you know we start really, you know gearing up and getting the things going because people are buying it. It's going up, so it's catching attention. 

01:01 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions circle back here on the circles off channel. 

01:53 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It's part of the hammer betting network and it's presented by kyle she. This is the show. We cover the latest and the greatest stories on gambling twitter, with myself here hosting jason. We're filling in for the last time for jacob gromenia, alongside chris deer. Kiss to my bottom, uh, joey knish, diagonal for me and then mr peanut. Better in the fourth seat, mike. Uh, filling in for us here. 

02:17 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Mike, welcome back yeah, I mean, at this point I'm working more than half the Canadian staff, so there's no surprise on that. Let's go ahead and get started. 

02:26 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, we don't have the show next week either. 

02:28 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I mean, that's how lazy they are. 

02:30 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I mean, yeah, I was going to get to that later on in the episode, but yes, no show either next week Tuesday for the original Tuesday crew because we'll be at Bet Bash. So yeah, I'll have you know, though I'm feeling refreshed, I've taken the Monday off really helped out getting me recharged and ready to go for an incredible episode of Circle Back. I will say I will say the number one complainer about us taking time off is Mr Joey Kanish, and I feel like I've earned the time off with how much time I've had to wait for him to do these damn recordings. 

02:57 - Joey Knish (Host)
So well, you're. I mean, listen you're, you're one, You're the only guy you know north of the border. Uh, that worked for the hammer that's actually put in a shift in the last two weeks. So I'm told, rob, to give you a little double time or something for, uh, the bet bash oh well, I appreciate that. 

03:11 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, speaking of, uh, getting shafted with time, let's start up here with our first topic of the day. It's uh, the wmba, and I mean I don't know what else we could start with here on a sports betting show. I mean mean Dave Mason running absolutely buck wild with this whole phallic objects being thrown on the WNBA court. For those who don't know, and those have been living under a rock, in the past week or so, we've seen three separate times where a for lack of a better word phallic object has been thrown on the WNBA court. We've seen players kick them off, we've seen staff pick it up with a towel and it happened again. This was on August 5th. Listen, I'm going to avoid saying the word because we can't really say this within the first five minutes, but yeah, a green phallic object has been dropped on the court for a third time and Dave Masonason, working overtime, posting lines. Um, recap the color it's green, which was minus 175. Uh, which side of the court it will land on? Uh, the home side wins at minus 110. How it will be handled? Kick slash feet, winner minus 135. I mean. So many other funny things to see. 

04:21
This is one of the best, I think, gambling stories of the past week, dave Mason waking up in the middle of the night just to kind of grade this stuff. How do you guys feel about these sorts of markets or these sorts of things that get posted where it's like almost an anomaly that happens? Listen, kanish, I know your girl, sophie Cunningham. She said, hey guys, relax, slow down, some of us could get hurt here. And she get hurt here and she actually got hit with one of these objects. So, uh, as a fan of the wmba, how do you feel about, uh, this stuff happening and how do you feel about these markets being posted? 

04:50 - Joey Knish (Host)
well, I mean, I love, I listen this. This to me is like the wmba content this year has been electric, whether it was the angel and cc battle. This is why the league, this is why the league is exploding. Uh, I love it. Now has it gone a little bit. You know, I saw the. 

05:08
The last kid who did it got arrested. His bug shots out there, and that do you probably have to curtail a little bit. But I mean, again, for the last week, we're leading the show with it. This is like the best bit in sports. Uh, I wish that you know to me if Joey Kay was the commissioner, maybe we lean into it a little bit. Maybe there's then a Sophie Cunningham branded. You know one of those, or you know, maybe you know we start really, you know gearing up and getting the things going because people are buying it, it's going out, so it's catching attention. So, yeah, I understand, you probably can't have people throwing them from the third deck. You know hitting somebody in the head with it, but I, I would, uh, I would capitalize on this I mean, yeah, we I mentioned it last time we've seen florida, the florida panthers with the rats. 

05:56 - Jason Cooper (Host)
They throw the rats on the ice after the win. Maybe for the indiana fever we can get uh green, phallic objects being thrown on the ice. Let's make them rubber, though, and like a little bit safer to throw, instead of the uh silicone ones that they have out there, because I think those might hurt. I don't know, kanish, you would know better than me. Uh, do you have? Do you have any, uh any opinion on this matter? 

06:13 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I echo, uh, niches thoughts here that this is just top content, very, very elite. And I would just caution those betting into this. This is an information. I'm not going to say don't bet it, because this is like preseason type betting. It can be very profitable, but only bet it if you have the information. So this is an information market. If you're betting it out of a hunch you're probably punting. So just a little caution there. You can make some money with this. 

06:43 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, and there's been a lot of talk about quote making some money on this. We have Scott Barrett DFB at Scott Barrett DFB on Twitter saying Infinity spelled wrong money glitch. Buy a WNBA ticket $29.99,. Buy a blue phallic object $15,. Max bet blue phallic object at $5,000, which I don't think is possible based on the limits, but I'm sure there's ways around it and then throw said phallic object onto the court profit 69. Let's just call it 69, 420, just for the sake of this, this episode. And then another tweet coming from abnormally distributed distributed. Someone who joined poly market in the last couple of days bought 19,000 shares of phallic object. Yes, polymarket in the last couple days bought 19 000 shares of phallic object yes, at 60 68 cents as their only trade. How lucky listen. This guy might have a plan, but there's been an update to this story as of, I believe, recording they've stopped allowing bags into nba game or sorry, wmba game, so it might be a little bit tougher to sneak in these objects not impossible, though not impossible. 

07:44
You're right, there's ways of doing it. There's, I mean, we can go into the many different ways, but, mike, I know you sometimes like to bet into like more, more of these like niche information based markets. Do you have anything here, was that you may be on on on this, on this market, or no? 

07:57 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
yeah, yeah, I'm the one person who wins, uh, consistently on the calcities given off in this market. Uh, flip, actually, before the show was explaining how you could get it into the game, um, and had some diagrams he was showing us. I don't want to get into it, uh, but yeah, I think that they say that those who, uh people, make their own luck in this situation. If you want to get lucky on a bet, you have to go in there and you have to do what needs to be done, um, if you really want to win in this market, uh, if you want to win in this sports gambling thing, you have to show that you want it, and I think no better way to show partners and potential people that want to work with you that you're willing to do what it takes to get a betting win oh my gosh, all right, this is already going off the rails six minutes and thank god I had a little bit of time off because I was not ready for, uh, this. 

08:42 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I want to hear your thoughts, I want to hear the commenters thoughts in the comment section down below. I mean, like we've seen this stuff all over twitter, I want to hear if you guys have an opinion, if you like it, if you don't like it, if you, if you feel like, excuse me, it's gone way too far, pull the flop there. Uh, yeah, we want to hear your thoughts in the comment section down below. Let's get to the next topic where we'd like to talk about, uh, small big things with small markets. But, uh, uh, this one's coming from our sponsors over at cal she. 

09:08
Um, it's about the nfl and trades this off season. Just as a quick reminder, if you want to sign up to cal she at any point throughout the show, check out the link in the description. You click that link and you sign up through there. Help support us. So if you haven't, if you haven't been on cal she let yet and you want to bet on this kind of stuff, make sure you use that link in the description. 

09:25
I mean, as you can see right here, guys trades this offseason. I know the NFL is coming around the corner. It's about 28 days away 27 days from when you're probably watching this, and we see guys like Trey Hendrickson, terry McLaurin, brandon Ayuk, even Micah Parsons, potentially getting traded this offseason with a bunch of different odds. Um knish, I know you're a football guy, let's start. Or sorry, excuse me, flop, I know you're a football guy, let's start with you on this one. Uh, any opinion on this market at all, anyone you you're looking to take, or is this just more of like a case where you almost take all the no's or as many no's as you can? 

09:56 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
honestly, I think all the no's here besides iuk is pretty good. Um, maybe trey henderson h Hendrickson, but Micah Parsons is way too valuable. His trade request is clear negotiating tactic. I wouldn't worry about that at all. I saw some clip the other day of top five Jaden Daniel plays and they all involve Terry McLaurin. I doubt they give up Terry McLaurin when they have a rookie contract with Jaden Daniels so they have extra money to spend. The Bengals owner is like notorious for being cheap, so I could totally see him getting moved. And then Iuke, maybe because you know they just paid Brock Purdy. But even then I think Kyle Shanahan really wants a Super Bowl ring and Ayuk is very important to that. So more Virginia Futures seems like something they would do. So I would lean towards no on everything, but maybe pass on Trey Hendrickson and be the only one. 

10:59 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, for sure. And again reminded, this is like a low-liquidity market there's only $4,000. This is a rather new market as well. But, and reminded, this is like a low liquidity market there's only $4,000. This is rather a new market as well. But there's a bunch of other names listed as well, Mike do you have any opinion on this kind of stuff here. 

11:10 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, in general for these, I think betting on something not to happen is your best bet. This is kind of like the old Super Bowl props that Rufus would talk about, where you just bet on nothing to happen and it's the boring bet that's more likely to pay off. No nice thing with kawashi on some of these is the interest you earn. So you're not tying up money because obviously you're going to be laying a huge number like 88, 90 and a lot of these. I actually bet no on some of the nba trades, uh, for the offseason. Uh, different guys that I just thought were unlikely to get moved. So, yeah, nfl uh, you know I'm not as up to date just because I spend so much time on college, but I would say, in general for these, bet on nothing to happen is like the general rule of thumb that I would go for. 

11:51 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, that's a great thing to do. Canish. Any more thoughts on this or let's move on to the next subject? 

11:55 - Joey Knish (Host)
No, I just I would tend to, you know, echo those sentiments. I think just in the NFL, in most cases, where in the NBAba the trade requests, you know the player empowerment, can kind of leverage that uh with, uh, you know, the agents and the like, a trade request has a lot more, a trade demand has a lot more. In the nfl you don't have a lot of ways out. The, the cba is also extremely punitive to you, like where they can just start finding you massive amounts of money if you start skipping workouts, skipping camps and that. So I would tend to lean where in most cases it's just a negotiation thing. The trade's too complex and I think that your value is pretty much always going to be on betting nothing to happen. 

12:38 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, pretty much makes sense here. And a reminder you can always sign up to CalSheet using the link in the description. Or, if you want to take a look on screen you're watching on youtube or through spotify, and scan the qr code on screen right now in the bottom right hand corner, take you right to their website. You can sign up through that code or, like I said before, link in the description to sign up to cal she. Um, let's stick with the nfl here. And I mean let's talk about one of my least favorite I don't want to call him least favorite favorite follows on twitter, but least favorite guy to ever see on my for you page and that's, uh, ben fox talking about how one vegas odds maker I'm doing air quotes for those listening on the detroit lions, uh, quarterback jared goff in quotations. I think he's in a system that fits him much better. If you put Hendon Hooker in there and change the offense a little bit, I think he'd look just as good, which I mean is just an absolute abomination of a take. 

13:35
Quickly, before we get into the next slide, this tweet has 200,000 views and 100 likes, so I mean it has the reach. I don't know how he's getting this many impressions but not too many people agreeing with that, including our very own, rob Pizzola, saying tell that odds maker to stick to moving off sharp action because that is as dull as a butter knife. This may be one of the worst takes I've ever seen. And then, following that up one more time, andrew Brandt on Twitter saying Vegas odds maker slash Hendon hookers agent who, I mean, is doing great legwork for his client. Can't blame the agent there. Mike, I'll let you lead on this one. 

14:13 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
The Vegas odds maker thing has become such a crutch by people who actually know what they're talking about and what they are doing. Almost certainly I can't say for sure. I don't know who his sources are. He's talking to some-level trader who's willing to give an opinion because it's meaningless, and these and they because people don't understand any better and they think, oh, the books set these lines. They think that this has any kind of weight or any kind of value to it. I mean you might as well be saying random fan that we pulled inside of detroit said this it means nothing, Depending on where it comes from. Obviously there's different people that he could talk to. I'm fairly certain that this is some trader for a company that moves. That is a softer book that's just basically copying penny lines. It's a meaningless kind of attribution that people think matters. So it's kind of that perfect zone for somebody to use if they're trying to make someone sound more important than they are yeah, listen, I'll give people credit where credit is due. 

15:13 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I'm a fan not I don't want to say I'm a fan, but like I respect when people do engagement bait and engagement bait, well, this is good engagement bait, but like, if you know anything about this kind of stuff, it's absolutely ridiculous flop. Any thoughts on this engagement baiting? 

15:28 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I think I would just add to Mike's sentiment here is even more respected people that are on the other side of the counter, like I've seen Jeff Benson post like odds, and he's missed the mark. I don't mean to bash him in any way. I really respect him, but it just goes to show that you could even be working at a sharp book as an odds maker or on that side of the counter no, he's not in the trading department and still not get it right. So, like Mike said this, these odds makers takes are worthless. Even even someone like Metcalf might not have the best opinion here, because he's his opinion is only based off of others opinions, not not his own. So you know I'm curious what um resident detroit lions fans thinks of jared goff. 

16:13 - Joey Knish (Host)
He's a top three quarterback and worth 20 points against the spread, but we'll see well, I mean, it's one of the worst takes I've seen when you're talking about a first ballot hall of famer in golf to go here. Here's all I'll say about Hendon hooker. Before the playoffs last year, the lions went out and signed Teddy Bridgewater off of the high school coaching ranks from the bleachers to be the backup quarterback for the team in the playoffs, instead of going with Hendon hooker, who's been on the team for two years. So how much faith can you have in the guy and think that, oh my God, like, this is our next guy? Like, if anything happens to golf, when you're signing a guy who hasn't played football in a year, who's coaching high school football, who then had to come in in one of the playoff games, they actually went to Bridgewater. I'm not seriously, I'm not going to tell you golf's like the greatest thing, but there's not a a moment of hendon hooker's career where I've been like, okay, that's our next guy. 

17:14 - Jason Cooper (Host)
So, yeah, I uh I don't know where that one came from, but uh, yeah, I would say credit to mr fox for uh, getting getting the spicy take out there I wonder if you just ask them to say these things so that he can say that a bookmaker said this thing, Because I don't know who in their right mind would actually say that. But I mean, it is what it is. We also just saw Flop call out Jeff Benson here on the show. 

17:35 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
The week, a couple days before he got a bed pass, Jason. He also said Metcalf has no idea what he's talking about Because he only gets his opinions from other people. Which is rich, coming from a top down, better. Getting all his opinions from other people is just suddenly a crime. 

17:48 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
Oh man I never said it was bad. I was just pointing out that you can. You can miss the mark as an odds maker and I wouldn't. I don't think Betsy would ever have a take this bad. The only time he'd miss it. He mentioned when he misses it, usually like by a point or two. Miss it, he mentioned when he misses it usually like by a point or two. It's nothing. This is like missing the mark by like 30 points. So, uh, my kid's trying to, you know, slander me. 

18:10 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It was just listen, uh, the people can check the tape. Um, speaking of missing the mark, fluff you. You completely missed the mark with that take. Anyways, let's move on to, uh, the next subject which we have here, which is, uh, continuing the the apparently of missing the mark and this comes from a bipartisan coalition of 50 attorney generals are missing the mark when they're trying to crack down on offshore gambling. They want websites blocked, assets seized, access to banks and payment processors cut off. The betting community was not a fan of this stuff when the A to Gs advise the offshore sportsbooks over the last 20 years. Devise a system where they don't use US banks, processors or TLDs. So there's not much the DOJ can do. It seems like a futile effort here from the government. 

19:02
One more from Spanky, where he mentioned that this plan looks like it was drafted 15 years ago. It's comical. Um, he lists a bunch of other things that lawmakers can do that can kind of help make the domestic product better, instead of trying to curtail people from going offshore. Uh, those things being stopped, kicking out or severely limiting winning betters. Repeal the stupid new tax law which we might get into later. Make the withdrawal process just as easy as the deposit process which I think everyone wishes was possible Reduce the barrier of entry for new operators to drive up competition and then limit the greedy, insane operator tax rate in some states, which inevitably gets trickled down to the consumer. Mike, I had you lead last time, flop. I know you wanted to talk about this one, so I'll let you lead this time. Any thoughts on this here? 

19:46 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
Yeah, this is just classic effort to posture and raise donations. That's all they're trying to do. They have no shot at getting this overturned and kicking those operators out. They're just trying to pretend like they're doing good. So people donate to them People. You know people donate to them. People, as in. You know sportsbook operators donate to them because they take business away from them. I thought Spanky laid out some actual good points there. They'll never listen to that because that doesn't really affect their bottom line. But thinking like this, words are easy to do. Let's see if there's some actual action. 

20:30 - Joey Knish (Host)
They can't do it because they have no power. Yeah, fair enough. Uh, any opinion from you here? Knish, I mean, I I love that. Spanky tree was really good, because I do think there was a point in time if you're old enough where I think there was some actual risk to the offshore industry. And then over the last 10 or 15 years, uh, they made a bunch of modifications to basically get around all of that, whether it be the domain names, bitcoin, coming in and not having to use US processors anymore, everything moves outside of US jurisdiction. So it's a night, it looks right. If you've been out to lunch or you're just somebody in the you know normie who reads that and is like, oh yeah, that's, that's good stuff. Somebody in the you know who's a normie who reads that and is like, oh yeah, that's, that's good stuff. If you're actually in the weeds, you know that, um, the time to actually do anything about that has long passed yeah, I think that's a fair point from both you guys here. 

21:12 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It seems like all the time these uh, these lawmakers, people in charge, don't really know or understand what's going on in this space, and they'll often, uh, create laws or implement things that might push. They'll think it will make people stop going offshore or make people bet more domestically, but in reality, the opposite is what ends up happening, mike. Final thoughts here. 

21:34 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, I'm not as smart as these guys. I wasn't aware how futile it was until Spanky's tweet, and thank God, because PB has some funds tied up in ag, eu and lv websites, so I was happy to hear that this sounds like it's not going to really affect much, and I'm glad it's not. We already have one legal battle going on with the gambling community. 

21:56 - Joey Knish (Host)
I don't think we can handle a war on two fronts like for if I'm playing devil's advocate, the only way I think there would be any is if the us was then able to lean on or leverage a country like costa rica or curacao or one of those that host, you know, a number of these sites. Do I think that's realistic? No, because they get so much. Those countries get a ton of money from licensing gaming, but that would be the the path forward for me to see like any type of actual enforcement is if you got those governments to go against him, which seems unlikely. 

22:30 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I'm shocked. That might be the smartest thing you've ever said on this channel. Joey Kanish, I respect you, I applaud you for it. 

22:36 - Joey Knish (Host)
Hey, you know what I got. A few more. Jared Goff takes coming up too later on. 

22:40 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, I love it From one bad piece of legislation, I guess we'll call it to another. I'm sure this has been on the forefront of everyone, everyone's mind excuse me, in the gambling space If you live in the United States an update from the Advancing American Freedom, which is, I believe it's run by Mike Pence. Listen, I don't know too much about it here, but it seems like what they're trying to do is stop the momentum that's been built, and the sentiment around the better is just trying to stop that in stopping the bill. So all of us are trying to come together to stop this bill from happening. This advancing American freedom seems like they want to kibosh that momentum that's been built up, led by Mike Pence. I mean, chris, you probably know more than me on this one, so I guess I'll let you take the reins here. 

23:28 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
Yeah. So the process to overturn this is going to be pretty difficult. There's two really main paths that can go on here. One, the bill that Dina Titus has put up. It's nice, but it's just a gesture. It will never, ever hit the floor because Republicans will never allow that. They want the credit for it. They're not going to let some Democrat do it. That's just politics. So I know we're supporting her at Bet Bash. It's nice, but unfortunately it has no real legs. 

23:57
The real way you get this stopped is with a budget reconciliation bill, which could only occur post-September 30th and I think realistically the earliest could be November, and then they'll tack on all bills that affect tax there. So this will be one small part of it and in the grand scheme of things, this 100% to 90% budget decrease or for tax deduction doesn't really affect enough people and the amount of people to care about it that it will be its own separate bill and it's going to have to be put on to budget reconciliation Now, if there even is one. It's currently up for debate right now. So that's, I guess, the more difficult way that this could get fixed, and it doesn't even seem that likely at this point in my opinion, especially to fix it by the end of the year. It could get fixed sometime next year, but that would still suck. The other way is unclear what a session is, and if Treasury were to rule on what a session is and define it as one quarter or one year, that would also effectively fix this as well. And all these other bills, like I know, ted Cruz had the Full House Act and we have Dina Titus with the Fair Bet Act. 

25:14
It's all posturing. Unfortunately, it's nothing. It sounds nice to people that aren't in politics and don't know what they're looking at. There's nothing they can do. This American Freedom Act or whatever fight against that. That's also mostly posturing. They are backed by Republicans and they want the Republicans passed the bill. So anything against that bill is against Republicans, and that's really what it is. They don't care if this thing. They don't care about gambling at all. It's all post is. They don't care if this thing. They don't care about gambling at all. It's all posturing. They don't want Republican legislation getting overturned. That's all it is. So I mean it's all fake and their examples are. They're using fake examples. They're not that stupid at this point. They've had so much time to research it. They're just being dishonest on purpose here. 

26:02 - Joey Knish (Host)
I thought I don't. 

26:03 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I don't want to follow that up. Were just being dishonest on purpose here I thought I don't, I don't want to follow that up. 

26:06 - Joey Knish (Host)
I've got about three percent as much knowledge as fluff on this, so, uh, I don't want to be the guy who follows the guy here. 

26:12 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I well said, my friend yeah, just two, two classic midwestern guys here. We can't understand that east coast nonsense that club's talking about. Yeah, you know, just tell me, tell me where to put the money in the kiosk next time you. 

26:23 - Joey Knish (Host)
You know I can't handle this, so you actually don't think you would put like whatever your fare would be that this gets overturned in 2025? 

26:32 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
No, no, no, so okay. So I will be fully transparent here. I did bet that this would get overturned on CalSheet at 68 cents or 63 cents, I think, a little bit ago, a couple of weeks ago. I made the fair at that point closer to 80 or 90. I know I said a 98%, but I'm probably closer to the price I got it now, so I wouldn't buy more at the current price. I think the market is actually pretty accurate here. 

26:59
However, treasury ruling that one session is one quarter or one year is effectively the same thing as overturning it, because if a session is one year, then if you lose, you're still going to lose and you're still going to net it and the only thing that would really affect is if you had business deductions against it. But that would have a very, very small impact at all. Where, if they rule a session is like one day or one, like sit down cash game, poker session, that would be devastating to it and that will not. That doesn't count as repealing the bill, but it does the same thing. So that might be an additional like 30 or 35% equity of happening, which I'm still like optimistic that a fix will get done by the end of the year. It just might not be in the way that we want, which is just a repeal of it, but getting treasury to rule at one session is one quarter of one year, is the same thing and accomplishes the same thing. 

28:00 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, if someone can just like gift the spinning wheel on top of my head. Head here as I try and process what Flubb said there. Listen, this is. This is all stuff going over my head, but I know it's useful for the listeners. So, yeah, I mean, there's nothing really more to add. We have the expert on here talking about the stuff that he knows about, chris. Good stuff with that, flubb. Good stuff with that let's move on to. If you're ready, let's move on to the next topic. But before we move on to the next topic, we have like a little bit of a we'll call it an announcement, I guess, because we have a new show coming to the Hammer HQ YouTube channel and you can go subscribe to that Hammer channel in the link in the description. It's a daily show, running Monday to Friday, 12 pm start time, noon Eastern, hosted by guess who, yours truly, but don 12 pm start time, noon eastern, hosted by guess who, yours truly, but don't worry, it's not just me. We'll have a bunch of guests here, including fluff, including knish, including, hopefully, mike I don't know yet if it's uh been confirmed that you're on there yet but, 

28:55
well, a little bit more work for you, but yeah, uh, we'll be having a bunch of guests on. We'll have a ton of fun here. It's basically a daily sports talk show. Meets, betting, meets, uh, sharp bets. We'll cover everything from the nfl college football, basketball all the way to f1 golf tennis, everything you can think of in between. Of course, it's uh, it's going to be a lot of fun. So, uh, if you're going to miss me as I hand the torch back to jacob on this channel, go head over to the hammer hq youtube channel link in the description. Go subscribe. We'll have that new show coming very soon in the pipeline. I promise you it will not be a waste of your time. And speaking of wasting people's times, we have farley bets who, I mean, uh, has a pretty interesting tweet here. Uh, most of the time you listen, uh, an NFL and sports betting show Excuse me, most of the time you One more time Most of what you listen to on NFL and sports betting shows Keep that in? 

29:51
What did you say? What was that Keep? 

29:53 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
that in. 

29:54 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, I'll keep it in. Most of what you listen to on NFL and sports betting shows are wasting your time. Podcasts are paid to sound smart and overanalyze granular aspects of the game, but beating the spread in the NFL is far less about the micro and far more about the macro intangibles like coaching, on-field leadership and performance in the clutch, which is probably why most podcasters are terrible at real betting. Too much focus on extraneous data. If podcasters are paid to sound smart and overanalyze, what am I doing here? All right, Give me this one. 

30:25 - Joey Knish (Host)
Give me this one Fire away as a guy who's paid to sound smart on multiple shows and may maybe not even sound that smart, but at least bring some level of entertainment. The one thing this is always people. Sometimes this take kind of recirculates every once in a while. Let's say that I had the best numbers in all of the world on college football and I came on to hit the books every Monday and I said you know what? This number, my number, is basically the closing line every single time. And I said I make that game Houston versus Florida State 8.6. That's it, that's all.6. That's it, that's all you got. That is that. And then boom, who the fuck is going to listen to me? Show up and say that's my fair 8.6. No other analysis, no other. There We'll go to the next game 8.7. 

31:20
To me, there's a big element in sports content and sports, that is, you have to talk about those things, you have to get some granularity, you have to, you know, even go to narrative street and a little bit, you know, crazy, because that's what people want to hear. There is no entertainment if you're just like a robot, I can look at a spreadsheet and see fairs. I don't need to listen to an hour podcast there's. It's an art form, it's entertainment. It I don't need to listen to an hour podcast there's. It's an art form, it's entertainment, it's what you want to listen to. 

31:48
And even, like I know, going into some college football podcasts or NFL podcasts maybe these aren't the sharpest guy in the world, but there's an element I still listen to Bill Simmons after 20 years. Do I think Bill Simmons knows shit about helping me beat the NFL? No, but there's an entertainment value there that I get out of it, that I value. And which a bunch of podcasts out there. That that's. That's the model they use. So is he technically, I don't know right, that is there. Is there some truth in that statement? Sure, but you don't listen like the best betters, most of the greatest betters in the world, the smartest, are not the people who are going to then one go on a podcast and share everything about their numbers every single week and to offer any type of entertainment yeah, that's fair. 

32:35 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I mean, one of my favorite shows that I listened to in season and in the off season is hit the books, and I mean yours truly is on that show. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed, but still listen to it Still actually a lot of funds, I'd argue it's one of the best college football shows out there. And I'm not biased at all because I actually kind I don't know if you guys heard that, but anyways, uh, fluff you're. You're a constant contributor to forward progress here on the hammer betting network. Uh, do you have any opinions on this? 

33:01 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
take here um, actually I got a question for mike related to this take here, because he talked about farley, talked about you know you have to. It's like ball knowledge. You need to look at things like coaching tendencies, but can't you quantify that, like Like I know, I know you do this a lot, like in college football? Can't you look at like hey, a head coach goes for it more. That affects the total X amount. Like can't you just like actually quantify this? 

33:27 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Well, first I want to say if you really want to waste some time, you know, have Jason, try to read off a tweet to you will listen to him, do that um, I mean, as joey k's favorite hit the books listener, he knows I know how to bitch about a podcast. 

33:41
So I what I want from a podcast is I want to hear every little piece of data that I might be missing and incorporating into my numbers. So there's just especially college football, so it's a little different for nfl. There's so much going on. You just want to get as much info as you can so that way you can look at what you're projecting as a number and adjust it accordingly. Or maybe most probably most frequently, you're going to have something that you're missing due to adverse selection. So why am I making this number seven when it should really like in the rest of the markets, three? If you're listening to a pod you might be like, oh, there's something that I'm missing there. So in this kind of case I like the details are what you want to listen to. So I I think it's. At first I thought he was going to go into these giant matchups and how people can get too focused on one thing and things like that. 

34:37 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, no, I totally agree with what you're saying. It's one of those that I agree. I've listened to some other, especially some of the ones that I've seen you comment on during the season, just to find some nuggets out there that were, yes, you know, maybe for 45 or 50 minutes it was a lot of stuff that I already knew or for a number. So if you already have baked in, but there's those, you know, those three minutes, five minutes, something, the way of thinking that somebody else has, that I like to get that opinion in. Or maybe they have something, or maybe they have a piece of news about somebody you know through a source or an injury or something that I don't have. So I do think there's value, um, in in kind of gathering a lot of sources and other material and and listen, even if you're just doing it for you know, the enjoy or the listening, stuff like that. 

35:23 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
Uh, I don't see nothing wrong with that yeah, yeah, go ahead I think mike said that with adverse selection is probably the most important thing here, because if you've ever seen a lion move against you and you don't know why, that's the scariest thing. So listening to all those details hey, maybe you missed something or maybe people are truly just overvaluing one thing that you think is not as important as they might think it is, or make it in terms of spread. So that can be really helpful. So having all those little details is really important and really can help you get fucked in some really bad spots. 

35:56 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, I was going to say, and I'll just say I do like hit the pucks, but there are shows I listen to for college football that I genuinely don't like that much Just because they're going into detail on stuff that I wasn't able to catch up on over the weekend, or especially some of these like smaller level conferences. So the more details the better. I don't need someone to give me their opinion on james franklin or on dabbo sweeney or those things. I have an opinion on that. What I don't have an opinion on is how the backup quarterback for southern miss played when he had to come in due to uh injury last year. So the fact that he's mad that these people aren't giving you details, it's like I don't them for the big stuff. Everybody knows how to do the big stuff or they at least have their own process for it. You're not going to get value there. Where you can get value is on the edges. 

36:42 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, that's well said. It's important to be granular about stuff. Well, some people might not like it, it seems like it can help you down the road. And speaking of being granular with things on Twitter at Nick Jarris over here, Nicholas Jarris could have would have paid off a little bit if he was a little bit more granular and you know what read the sports book rules. Got to be granular here because he went on a little bit of a complaining spree on Twitter after he had a bet on chase Burns to go over eight strikeouts but the game which he started ended up getting postponed and Chase Burns only played one inning and, of course, the postponement in baseball, the chance of that pitcher playing again is very unlikely. So he felt that it was unfair for his bet not to get voided as it was almost impossible for Chase Burns to get the eight strikeouts, If I mean, if there was only one inning played in. The game got postponed. 

37:36
But be better, I think comes in with a very good take here. This is a rare instance where you I'm on the sportsbook side read the rules, accept the, accept the results. We are gambling at the end of the day. I mean why? Why should the sportsbook have to cover for if there's a a rainy day and a game gets postponed. It's in the rules that if the game starts and the listed pitchers starting, the bet stands regardless of postponement. So I'm in agreement with that. A couple other people in agreement as well. At hey Rosenberg, Adam Rosenberg said the amount of people who bet and don't read the house rules kind of blows my mind. And then finally, from Hoffie8121, Max Hoffmeyer. This may be an unpopular opinion, but if you are betting a substantial amount of money, you should be checking weather reports and house rules. If you're betting not a substantial amount of money, didn't check the weather and then blamed the book. That is some loser mentality. Mike, I'll let you lead with this one here. What are your thoughts on someone who's betting on sports not checking the rules? 

38:40 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Do you feel like they have the? 

38:41
right to complain here or you think these are all good takes from the twitterverse. Well, it's a shame kurt's not here. You know to go on, and but I think to a point. Yes, obviously, there, the rule has to be within reason. The sportsbook can't say that if you know something, uh, you can't make a rule that actually, if the player doesn't play at all and you bet on something and they're scratched late, that you still lose that bet, but you know he has to play for it to hit. Like, there has to be some kind of house rules that are reasonable. But as long as they're reasonable and with weather delays in baseball, they're pretty much all reasonable to me, because you can take so many different stances on it. 

39:20
Yeah, to not know the rules and then to complain about it as wild, um, have I fired into a few markets and not done the legwork that I should have? Yes, but, uh, I wouldn't be crazy enough to blame the book on that. You see this happen all the time, uh, with overs and baseball games that are rained out and they say what happened to my over? Uh, it already hit, but the game was delayed or whatever. Um, and you know this happens at least a couple times a year with baseball, it seems uh, specifically yeah, I think that's so fair. 

39:45 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
Go ahead, chris my god, I gotta disagree with you the part about the house rules being reasonable, because if it's in the house rules doesn't it not matter? Like if it's reasonable or not. Don't bet there if you don't like the house rules. I mean, what's the issue? I'm not sure how you can make that argument If they want to make it in their house rules. If a pitcher gets scratched, you still lose. If your bet is over, that's fine. Just don't bet there if you don't like the house rules. I don't understand your argument from that your argument from that. 

40:18 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
So I, for I, would say, for a normal better. It's not reasonable to expect them to check the house rules on every single market that they bet into, no matter what. So if you were to the most extreme example of this, say that if you bet a side and a green dildo gets tossed onto the floor, the bet is void. That would, to me, I would say that you have a right to be like hey, what are we doing here? Why are you voiding this bet, even if it's in the rules? So as long as it's something again with baseball whether and that to me is well within I would have a very large window of what I consider reasonable. 

40:46
In this case, I would say that it would have to be something, you know, totally nonsensical for me to get to think it's upsetting. Or, uh, you know. Otherwise, I totally agree with you. I'm just saying, uh, you know all fans aren't going to read the rules for every market. Um, as long as you make it your most fair attempt, I think that that's, uh, a reasonable attempt by the book yeah, I think that's fair from uh, from both you guys here. 

41:08 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I think there's kind of sort of differing uh points of view, but but an agreement in the end there. I think it's fair if, like you said, mike, if, if, if you feel like an unfair rule is there and you tweet about that's fine, complain about it. But if it's a weather delay, which happens all the time in sports and this is pretty common occurrence I mean like shouldn't be complaining about that. I feel like that's uh kind of like what max said at the end there loserish behavior, kanish any input here before. Well, I just I think there was. 

41:32 - Joey Knish (Host)
You know, sports books kind of opened the can of worms on this with the injury voiding a while back, and then they've never really been able to put the tooth back. They paste back in the tube here of you get people. That the only thing I'll say is also is I would wait. I'd love to know, like if you can go in somebody's account you know you can like click track on what they're going into, how what percentage of users who have placed a bet have ever actually read the house rules? Because I would. I would think it's like less than 10 percent, that is, 2 percent, less than 1 percent. 

42:09 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Less than 1 percent, guys. I, if I pull all my friends who bet on sports, I guarantee you zero of them have read the house rules. Yeah, and again. 

42:18 - Joey Knish (Host)
I know books, you know that's the language, that's what they'll use. But when you start voiding bets in the past for trivial reasons, you get people like this who then expect a refund or a void for a very trivial reason, even though that now seems on its way. It's one of those things that's very hard to unpack now that people have, you know, used to it. 

42:42 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I got to disagree again here with the. 

42:44 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Kirk Kirk support. 

42:46 - Jason Cooper (Host)
What's going on here? It's Kirk in the room with you Show us the room. 

42:51 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I'm not coming into the defense of the sports book, I'm coming into the defense of the player. This is not a trivial void. In my opinion, this is kind of a niche spot. How often is there a rain delay and it causes the pitcher to get pulled in that specific spot? That's pretty niche. It's not like the pitcher got injured. If the pitcher got injured and he's complaining, I kind of agree with you guys here. But I actually think he's got a valid complaint here that it's like it's a pretty specific spot and it's like hard to hard to plan like an injury, like a rain delay. Obviously they can't. They're worried about picture rest and everything like that. So I kind of think the sports books are a little out of line here and you guys are the ones defending the sports book. You're the Kirk Evans, not me. 

43:39 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I don't think that rain delays are that rare that a pitcher a starting pitcher gets taken out for a rain delay semi-regularly. I would say it happens more than an injury just eyeballing it. 

43:47 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I guess for what it's worth, I don't bet a ton of baseball. 

43:50 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Either do I. 

43:59 - Joey Knish (Host)
I don't bet baseball at all, but just, uh, you know eyeballing it, it just seems like one that you would go on and be like, you know, like if this happened to me, like it'd be more like a lol, I post it. Be like, ah, it burns over eight strikeouts, you threw four pitches or something. I wouldn't go to you know FanDuel, and be like I need my money back right now. 

44:08 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It's just, it's kind of the incorrect line of thinking that I'm more having an issue with yeah, I would complain that I was running bad, not complain to the books yeah, and I another thing I'm gonna throw in there is that, uh, you can just kind of tell uh, listen, I don't know much about nick nick jars here, but you can kind of tell the way he's wording stuff. And yes, his response it's one of the things he said was two of three in my parlay. Yeah, I need void bets, like I think. I think we know what type of better he is. 

44:34 - Joey Knish (Host)
The real question though. Jason, you picked up on that because I saw this almost in real time, like maybe 20 minutes after he tweeted. It was going to go dunk on him then like read the text exchange, looked down his timeline real quick and was, like you know, I'm just going to let that one go by, like yeah, I'll stick to that. I'm sure Nick's a very nice guy in real life. 

44:57 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
But uh, no, I've always said, joey, you're known for your restraint on oh, man, definitely didn't pass the smell test there, I mean. 

45:07 - Jason Cooper (Host)
The real question, though, is what happens more often a pitcher getting kicked or pulled out of a game from a rain delay, or a grand slam on a full slate. That's an inside baseball reference to last week. Hopefully you what you were listening there speaking about more baseball. Uh, we have some questions about volatility from giuseppe. Giuseppe paps on twitter saying always funny hearing cappers say that they can can't wait for the nfl because mlb is too volatile. I've modeled both extensively. Mlb isn't just more predictable, it's in a different universe. At least it's a dead. At least it's a dead giveaway. They have no idea what they're talking about here. Listen, I'm not someone who models mlb or nfl. Um, I guess, uh, mike, maybe you're probably better suited to talk about this than me, but uh, is this a dead giveaway for uh cappers? 

45:56 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I I mean, I again don't bet baseball, but everything I've seen is that baseball is the most solved market that there is. It's 10 cent lines, everything's as thin as possible. You go to the game and the guy sitting in the third row is keeping score and knows the pitcher's spin rate of his last 14 outings and things like that. So this is, it's an individual sport. There's a million stats on it. It's by far, I think, the most analytics friendly. It seems pretty reasonable that it's going to be have the least amount of variance compared to a game played with a egg shaped football that is heavily decided on turnovers, which are very random, as we know. So I pretty much agree with everything that he put in the tweet and it is probably a dead giveaway if you're complaining about the variance in baseball. 

46:46 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, fair enough. Just to pack up, mike, there's, I think, 2,400, some 2,430 or some odd games in a baseball season compared to, like what is it 270, 272 or something in an NFL season. So you've got like 10 times the amount of actual samples and games to go over. So you know, over the course, like you could be making good numbers in the NFL and have a losing season just because there's not enough of a sample You're, you know you might only have 50 bets in a season, whereas mlb you're gonna have, you know, hundreds if not thousands of plays, um over that campbell. So yeah, that's uh, I I think it's a strong, it's a strong tweet. 

47:25 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I'm also curious. I don't bet enough baseball to know the answer this, but I wonder how many teams that started in the ranked by preseason odds in baseball as like a bottom five, bottom 10 team that ended in the top five or top 10. Yeah, probably, my guess would be not that many, whereas in football I could take a couple examples just last year where the commanders and my Jets were like two good teams, like the Jets we thought would be a top 10, ended up bottom 10. And the commanders, we thought would be a top 10, ended up bottom 10. And the commanders I thought would be bottom 10 and ended up top 10 so 49er go to the superbowl, miss the playoff exactly exactly. 

48:03
Well, that was more injury, but still, like there's so many examples of like massive change and variance in the nfl and baseball, like, like mike said, it's just individual sport that they play in a team environment. 

48:21 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
To that point. Flop, I think Impredictable did a study. He got some good work over there where it goes over the volatility of each sport and I believe MLB was by far the lowest and it also gives you. You don't have teams that are secretly kind of bad. That masquerade is good halfway through the season when, like in the NFL, you might have a team that you know Vegas oddsmakers might know isn't that good and they're eight and two and they're doing whatever In baseball you can tell right away. You know game 20, there's a team that's four and 16. You're like oh yeah, you know we have 140 more games of this. 

48:51 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
My favorite example of this is is this was like a couple years ago. It was like the viking, like a 12 and 1 vikings were playing at the the cowboys or something like that, and it was like the cowboys were favored and what does vegas know like what? What is going on? That stuff happened. I love it when that happens in in the nfl where, like they have a bad team, that's luck, box, a couple like weird round-shaped turnovers and um, they get a better record so that the fans think, oh, they're a good team because of the record, when they're actually quite bad yeah, fair enough, all right, plays right into the volatility we were talking about here. 

49:29 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Um, we're about to get into your comments and, as a reminder, if you ever want to get in on the show, drop your comments down below. We run through them and take a look at them every single week. Also, on twitter, hashtag circle back. Uh, you guys help out with the process of this show. If you guys want to have your voice heard, be in the conversation, hashtag circle back on twitter. Uh, before we get into those comments, though, uh, one word here from kirk, because kirk was so mad he missed the tuesday show. He wanted to get a word, and so, k Kirk, take it away. 

49:53 - Kirk Evans (Host)
What's up, kirk Evans, here? If there's one thing, bettors need more of it's accountability. If you disagree with something I've said, call it out. If you've got a better angle, share it. If your comment starts with you, simp congrats. You're very original. But seriously, the comments are where the real value is Iron sharpens iron and where the real value is iron sharpens iron. And if you've got something to add, I want to hear it. Scroll down, drop a take and let's have the kind of conversation you don't get on the timeline all right, kirk, thanks for that. 

50:22 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Uh, no, sportsbook simping there, maybe a little bit. Uh, we'll see. But uh, let's get right into the comments here. I'm starting off with this one from uh, I don't even know how I would say this guy's name vikas vikas vikas maker. Uh, there he is. Uh, there should be a separate pod for joey k he's. Is this actually your cousin? 

50:42 - Joey Knish (Host)
no, but uh, if he wants to join the family, I'd let him after all right saying there should be a separate pod for joey k. 

50:48 - Jason Cooper (Host)
He's the star of the show, though he takes everyone's screen time. The man is totally unhinged. Uh, kanish, I'll let you take this one. You want your own show. 

50:58 - Joey Knish (Host)
I saw someone comment to me on twitter uh, the other day about one of the the chops we did from last week. That was like lay off the caffeine buddy, here's the, here's the rub. I've been off it for two years. My man that said that that's all right here, that still comes, I don't even need it. So, uh, appreciate that, but I guess. But no, uh, listen, it wouldn't be, it wouldn't be a true circle back without all members of uh of the team here. So I don't you don't want to hear me here's you know what. 

51:25
Just to go way off the bat, there's something. I said this in a group chat this week. There's something I find very odd about people who do solo shows like Jim Rome, like when you would just like it, when it's just you, or like the Josh Pate CFB show, when it's just you talking into a camera, like to nobody. I find that dynamic like those people always to me seem a little off, like there's no back and forth, there's no nothing, there's just you talking for an hour to like the screen. That's a weird concept to me. So yeah, I don't know, the solo thing is a weird thing, but hey, glad you're enjoying the show, my man, I appreciate you great, great way to segue into our uh, our hammer daily show that we have coming out, hosted only by me, but don't worry they'll be guessing the thing. 

52:14
Like they're right. There will be some back and forth there will be back and forth. 

52:18 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I was just busting your balls, they're just playing around. Uh, last week everyone was all over chris giving them a ton of love. Um, this week, giving kanish love. We have to flip the trend here. Chris, you're getting shit on a bit. Is this chris guy? Okay, stutters every studies, stutters even over the MLB scandal, and I stuttered as I'm saying it, chris, any response to at Chris Wright 3097, your namesake brother calling you out. 

52:43 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I mean, that's not very nice, you know, in all seriousness, I know I stutter, it is who I am Just got to take it. 

52:53 - Joey Knish (Host)
And now he's not okay. Chris, that's totally separate from the stuttering. But he's got to take it and he's not. 

52:58 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Now he's not okay chris, just a river that's totally separate from the stuttering, but he's not okay. Not okay, but knows a lot about the tax bill, which is very helpful for us here. On, uh, circle back, uh, last one here, uh, so here we go, you guys b820, saying you guys really need the week off. 

53:11
You can record the day before. Pathetic, uh like. If I may go into this one here. Uh, brother, we record the day before. Pathetic, uh like, if I may go into this one here. Uh, brother, we record the day before. That's when the holiday was. That's the entire point of why we were taking the day off. It's a statutory holiday in canada, like what do we do? 

53:26 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
question why did you not record the day before the holiday? 

53:29 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
then it's a sunday oh, it's a sunday oh my good, why don't you record the day off? Yes, play j off. Yes, he's not here. Oh my gosh, you're talking into a microphone. It's so taxing. 

53:41 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
What are we doing for 90 minutes, for not yet oh, do the kiosks like do they work on on sunday? You guys like get your bets in on Sunday? 

53:53 - Joey Knish (Host)
24, seven, three, 65 in the casino industry. Baby, just how it should be in the content industry. But no, apparently, if you go North of the border you get. You know even the content folks get and you know what Hashtag return fire. There is a member of that show that agreed with me and we DM about it this week. I'll leave that open to interpretation. Who agreed? There's a member of that show who was not very happy. 

54:25
And so let's just say he knows himself some golf and he knows himself what it takes to be successful in content. 

54:33 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, fair enough. I think I know who we're talking about here and I'm going to have a very strong word with him Not at Bet Bash, because he probably won't be there. Let's get into our next topic, which is, I mean, from one media company to another. We're taking a look at Barstool here, where their pick show called Pick Central Over 10,000 picks overall over the past two years. They are down a whopping 495 units which, listen, if you're keeping score, is actually a better ROI than Fezzik for this year year to date. But anyways, interesting to hear the breakdown of how everyone is in different sports on Pick Central. They kind of gave a little breakdown on how good and I mean how bad mostly everyone's done on the show. The overall record here coming from Pick central has been a rough two years for the crew bracket, except hubs, who's up 13 units. Clemmer, down 30 units. Marty mush, down 81 units. Great name Big Ev, down 184 units, and then Rico Bosco team to do 260. 

55:36
Hashtag may do wish he was still on the show because he would be going off on rico bosco for this one. I mean, listen, not really much to get into here because I doubt you're you're watching pick central for specifically their picks. I think you know what you're getting into, but uh, kanish is someone who has a show that's currently down, uh, in the calendar year on hit the books, uh, any uh here. 

55:58 - Joey Knish (Host)
I mean listen, I think Barstool it's funny, they own it. I think Powers used to actually do a weekly segment with Bosco. 

56:07 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Well, I want to throw something out there. In the video, clemmer did well on college football and Rico called him out for tailing Powers' plays. So hey, there you go, right. 

56:17 - Joey Knish (Host)
So yeah, in some, in some like three-year universe here we've got some connection, um, but no, I I mean credit to uh. What's the guy's name? Uh, I don't actually know. I know a lot of the barstool personnel. I don't know who hubs is, but hey, 13 units keeping it, uh, keeping it rolling. So uh, I'm happy for happy for the nadeau crew that Bosco's lost two and a half bankrolls in two years. 

56:40 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Chris, any thoughts? 

56:42 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I mean, like you said, the ROI is actually not that bad. It's like a little bit better than minus 5%, which is about what you'd get, picking a random minus 110 side. If you're a coin flipper, that's what you get on those kind of shows. If you thought differently, I don't know what you were watching. 

56:57 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, no, no fair enough here. Mike any thoughts? 

57:00 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
if you're following marty mush and you're expecting to, this guy's gonna take me to the promised land, like what. This is the perfect example that, as long as you're not pretending to be anything than what you are, that's totally fine people. These people are having fun. Uh, you know, they get to if you take a, if you tail them at all, and you get to hang out with your friends and say, oh, we're all cheering for the Saints side. We're the weird ones for taking this seriously. This is supposed to be kind of a fun, entertaining product. I have no problems with these guys sucking at betting and, honestly, the fact that they're not pretending to be guys who win at betting is fine. 

57:36 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I want to add on to that. Like them, and like Barstool and Bookett, I don't think they advertise themselves as super sharp. Yeah, we're not doing that. This is why we don't like our show, which attacks a lot of touts and people losing what. We don't attack them because they're not claiming to be. Mike nailed it here. 

57:53 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, great takes all around here guys. Yeah, yeah, great takes all around here guys. Yeah, pretty much that's all you can say. We talk about it quite a bit here. If you're not presenting yourself as a winner and you're losing, we're not going to go at you. That's just the way of life, right? But if you do the opposite present yourself as a winner and you're not a winner then you can find yourself on the show like someone will be later on in the episode Bosco, definitely a guy who will not be in circus sports. 

58:20
But uh, that's where we find our next topic, where we find jeffrey benson kind of pulling out the big gun saying this will not be live at circus resort and casino. Please remove that from the graphic or our legal team will be reaching out on a now deleted post benson whipping out the big guns. Instead deleted post was a graphic for jp versus jw lucas live at circa resort and casino. Why anyone would ever make this graphic, I have no freaking clue. I mean slated to happen monday, august 11th, during bet bash. We'll see if any of that happens. I hope not because, uh, it would ruin a great day at bet bash. But I mean, you guys have any opinions on that. Uh, mike, I'll start you with you here. 

59:01 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Is this the undercard for Kanisha? First of all, I just don't think that the JP fellow stands much of a chance in that fight there, just based on what I can tell from all the graphics. But just an absurd thing to have it at circa and, uh, obviously have no kind of backing, no notification to circa. To put that up is just, especially because it's something that you don't need to include. But yeah, I'm just looking forward to that as an undercard until we get to the real main event yeah, on the streets of vegas off strip should be a fun one, if anyone wants to attend that. 

59:36 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I doubt anyone will be, though uh kanish any thoughts on this now that you're on the? 

59:40 - Joey Knish (Host)
uh, the main yeah, I'm not leading to the uh, the main event, but I I honestly I I don't know why elf is still do trying to push this bot, like the boxing, like it. Was there not some indication that after the original one, like it, had lost the juice, and then how many times? I don't even know, and I've been, you know, I think we've been checked there's not some indication that after the original one, like it, had lost the juice, and then how many times? I don't even know, and I've been, you know, I think we've been checked out of the space. For I don't even know who this JP guy is Like. I don't know his handle or anything. I don't know anything about him. 

01:00:09
So this isn't even like we used to, you know, a few months ago, when I was like you know if, when I was like you know if they ended up doing I'm kind of out on the boxing, but if it ends up I'll tune in for the stream. This is one like I'm not even. It's just lost all juice, it's lost all of it. So I don't know. I hope they, whatever they can try to move on to something else, but the whole boxing thing I think is cooked. 

01:00:31 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, I feel like he's burned all the bridges there. Flop any opinion? 

01:00:34 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
here. Just shout out benson exerting this, that dominance, like he got it, that tweet deleted, like that. Just that shows you the power and respect that benson has. I thought that was pretty epic and I kind of understand his point of view. Like if they had, if that fight actually happened at circa, that's very bad yeah, right, right it fights there, so totally understand where they did it on street were they playing one of those? 

01:00:59 - Joey Knish (Host)
somewhere in the bill, like at saginaw's or like I, when he says that like they weren't renting out, it was like, hey, we're gonna fight in the circa parking lot I, I have. 

01:01:10 - Jason Cooper (Host)
No, I have no idea what the plan was. Obviously not a lot of thought went into that. Uh seems like, yeah, just got to be careful, because you send out to like tweets like that. There's been too many times you get close to a lawsuit. A lawsuit might eventually come, who knows. You just got to be obviously very careful when you do stuff like that. But that wraps it up for uh, that topic. Uh, on to the next one uh, speaking of uh fights and whatever, maybe a little bit of back and forth. We've seen kanish, you were getting kind of called out by steve fezik and guess what, another week, another topic on steve fezik. So I'm sure you're gonna get called out again here. By the which, by the way, I don't know why he was calling you out. I I tweeted out him that uh about hitman at like as if he he was tailing hitman's plays. 

01:01:53 - Joey Knish (Host)
Um, I mean, why would he also blocked me, to like now he blocked me and then now he wants to go on a rager when I can't respond to anything so listen, I've been. 

01:02:02 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I've been trolling him in the comments. Don't worry, I'm fighting the good fight here. He's yet to respond to me or call me out uh on twitter, but whatever, maybe he will after this week. Uh, this one comes from adrian badgerowski, frequent uh fez fan. Uh always hash using hashtag circle back. We appreciate that. He's saying Fezik is so desperate for units, he's giving clients 90 second windows to live at random MLB games on a Monday. You just happen to take a phone call or take a number two and poof, no chance to play this Meet the 2025 Fezik. 

01:02:34
The Fezik playing question was a two-star play, which is a two-unit play Detroit live minus 135. He writes Detroit trails 1-0. Bottom of the first about to go and of course, you had like literally 90 seconds between innings to bet that. But that wasn't the only live bet that Steve Fezzik gave out this week. Fezzik update the grift is wide open right now. So in-game bets are stealing units. Commercials are two minutes and 30 seconds total. This bet and someone complaining is a perfect reality of what Fezzik is right now. So a plus three pushes the a-okay to play Detroit plus two and a half. Not so much, and I'll bring up the bets right now. Uh, this one from this, uh, play from Fezzik here, two star, another two unit play Detroit Tigers live. Plus three, minus 143. No game, is that commercial break? After the fourth inning right now, and as you can see, the score was four one. At the commercial break he says a-okay to play detroit, plus two and a half, mind you. Mind you, which he's called people out before. 

01:03:28 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
No price attached to the plus two and a half it's not like a half a run is like a negligible thing. That's because it's gonna be worth like 40 cents live. I don't know how much this is worth. 

01:03:38 - Jason Cooper (Host)
They a-okay with no prices, absurd behavior absurd and I feel bad for anyone who actually did tell this and did play them two and a half, because, as you can see on the screen right now, the detroit tigers end up losing by three. So the three pushes for fezik who gave it out. He's not tracking it at the two and a half, but if you ended up betting it at two and a half you got cooked. And that leads us to Johnny California, who's a subscriber of Fezzik. I mean, I'll read the whole thing here just for a little bit of schadenfreude. So here we go, the onslaught of in-game bets that very few people can access, and those who can have a small window to's doing log in, find the wager if odds have not changed. Unless, like Fezzik, the client is not sitting at a panel of computers logging in, monitoring and ready to go knowing a play is coming. It's very hard for a guy to do that. It's not practical and unprofessional to send those and count them, but we will see more. It's 11 minutes to wager second half, let alone one to two minutes to wager an in-game bet If you have access to it and you never know when it's coming. It's not at a specific time Doesn't seem very happy from Johnny California. 

01:04:43
Then we asked your opinions and you guys let us know on Twitter at CirclesOffHQ. We tweeted out is giving out live bets as a paid service? The not low 75.4% of the people said yes. There, Kanisha, I kind of want to get you in trouble here, so I let you lead. What are your thoughts on that poll? Do you think giving out live bets as a paid service is the nut low? 

01:05:02 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, I'll tell you two things. I would qualify this with One if you're giving out live bets as what I'll call an adder or a bonus and not tracking them to your main record. So if part of your thing is just like I usually do pregame bets, halftime, whatever, but I'm going to throw some live out there when I think it's good, I just won't count it either to your play total or to my record total, then I'd say it's OK. Or two, it's a legitimate, like live betting service where someone is like I, like all these players are going to be live, so you've got to be logged on from, you know, 5 pm to 10 pm or something like that, where that, in this instance, obviously neither of those apply and it's just Chase. 

01:05:49
Is it what it is? It's chasing. Obviously, the record's not been good for the year. So it's like I'm going to try and find a way to chase and claw back some with live plays which I, you know I can see as a subscriber, plays which I, you know, I can see as a subscriber, and you know johnny c says it there that people are not happy with because it's not, it's just not tangible. 

01:06:05
Yeah, right, for most people. And there's nothing more like imagine you're a client, you're down whatever 50 or 60 units, you miss the live play and then it wins. How triggered are you? That's like. Now you know I've already lost 60 units. I missed the play he gave out, it was a winner, and now I'm even more, until because I couldn't get to play it in time. Um, yeah, I just I don't think it's uh, a good way to to run it, or ethical, we'll call it that yeah, we're seeing a slow deterioration of his uh service over this past year for sure. 

01:06:36 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Um, chris, any opinion here? You don't want to poke the bear, knowing that that batch is next week it's totally fine. 

01:06:42 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
I want to see a physic first. Uh, kanish fight. I'm really excited. But I think this is the whole problem with like couch, like tracking units and like advertising the record, even like people that have winning, like units or positive records, if you can't get the bets, your record doesn't mean anything. Like I could there's like I could probably be up thousands of units in the last two years if I took all the lowest hanging fruits that you can get seven dollars in. It reminds me one that had that punt prop like years ago. 

01:07:14
Like this doesn't. It doesn't matter if you win, if no one can tell you or no one can get it, if you're a tout and like you. This is why, in my opinion, you shouldn't ever buy picks, because it's so hard to get everything right. To get someone that can win and that you can tell is extremely difficult and that you have access to that won't kill your accounts. All of it is almost impossible to do Right. There's been like brief stints where people have done it right over the time. Rast did actually somewhat do it right for a couple of years Not in my opinion, not anymore but, like with physics, maybe he did it right Two decades ago, definitely not right now. So we'll see. 

01:07:57 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, fair enough. Definitely not right now, so we'll see. Yeah, fair enough. Mike any any thoughts here on this? 

01:08:00 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
so I I don't follow fez's service. Never have, do you guys know? Does he email clients? Is that how he, like, notifies him of plays? I don't I have no idea, honestly I'm telling you, if I got an email on my phone and I was sitting at my desk, I don't know if I could get to it in time to play it on a live mlb line in the commercial break. There's just no time. What is the probability that a sub got this in? 

01:08:23 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It has to be, under 1%. 

01:08:25 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I mean, this is even more ridiculous than the obscure CFL line that he has at South Point at 2 am in the morning. This is a crazy line and you're not getting anything that's close to this price either, because the game's totally changing so you basically have no input. Um, basically, it feels like he's kind of jumped the shark lately. Uh, we kind of have gone from someone who was, like you know, a little wacky and uh, he might do a couple things that are a little strange and stuff, um, but now it's just like we're giving away mob monday lines at 2 pm games and you know, if you don't get it, the website is something out of a 1990s hell that I've never seen. I don't know what's going on. It's the first time I ever visited pregame or whatever. I saw that I was like, oh goodness, this is a whole other level. So, yeah, we kind of jumped the shark here. On Fezzik, I feel, unfortunately, he's kind of starting to lose some of the fun that made him at least you know, a fun jousting partner before. 

01:09:24 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, I mean, he's literally floundering here, like he's essentially losing, like he's down 60 units this year, 62 units Should be 64 because he included the push, but whatever, that's besides the point. But yeah, he's floundering here and you see, someone who's in real time is losing one of their abilities to earn One of their main. I don't know if it's his main source of income, but it's one of the ways that he earns money and this is negatively going to be affecting him. If he continues to lose, people won't buy his services. It's as simple as that. I think that's the biggest problem here, and that's why it's becoming less fun is because we're seeing a man and I hope a Kanish lands the knockout punch. 

01:09:57 - Joey Knish (Host)
You know what? Yeah, and then a boxing gym right after this this is not happening, by the way. 

01:10:02 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I'm just letting everyone really not happen. 

01:10:05 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
He really hits rock bottom here. We get them to take a dive in the fight in a specific round and we really profit. 

01:10:10 - Joey Knish (Host)
I can be. You know, first punch Fez out and you're slipping them. You know an envelope afterwards here and I'm walking around like Sam. 

01:10:18 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Fair enough, yeah, but just again, benson, if you're listening to this hopefully you are this is not going to happen. Anyone else listening? 

01:10:24
to this as well. This is not going to happen. We'll have fun with you guys at Bet Bash next week. But anyways, let's get into the chopping block and close out the show here, starting with our good friend Matt Zilbert. Starting with our good friend Matt Zilbert who, by the way, this tweet was requested from Jacob. Jacob sent this to me and said hey, make sure you include this on this week's edition of the chopping block here, because he knows that Zilbert's a big fan of him and a big fan of the chopping block. 

01:10:49
Matt Zilbert saying tonight's over under A's Nats on this fine taco Tuesday, no one's had more glaring home and road splits than luis everino. So let me try and capitalize on, in total, this high he mentions over under record, over under record at 73, 54 and 5 I believe it's 73, sorry, 72, 54 and 6 if you include that one push or the loss, whatever. Anyways, that likely leads the continent is what he says. His record 57 likely leads the continent. Rufus comes in and says so looks like you're plus 7.52 units on 151 bets. If your average price is minus 115, that's 4.33 percent roi. You think the 4.33 percent roi and plus 7.52 units is the best in the content. I want to hear what you guys think. I mean, I completely disagree with uh rufus. You're how could you be slandering our boy zilbo? Come on man, one of the best bettors in the world, uh rufus, you have a podcast on uh at bet bash, but matt zilbert has his own panel. 

01:11:44 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
Okay, show him some respect, please flop, go ahead well, I think rufus is completely out of line here, because all of the mad silver bets are minus 110 ish. Where do you get this minus 115 number from? That's just pure blasphemy from rufus, and I support Zilbert and his endeavor. 

01:12:00 - Joey Knish (Host)
Even so. Even so, if he's getting down a million a play, he's up $7.5 million on the season. So I mean, I don't know, he might be the best in the continent. 

01:12:12 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
The problem with that is, if he bet a million a play, he'd lose his hunger, and we don't want that to happen to him, you know, is if he bet a million to play, he'd lose his hunger and we don't want that to happen. 

01:12:20
You know he's on he's. I love that. He's the best on the continent. He doesn't know about the rest of the world. So he says the continent and I think that, uh, you know, zilbo, he doesn't follow that, plus ev, math, nerd stuff. He just he's the best on the continent because he has a great winning percentage. The race for 60s on, I still believe he can do it with the heater. 

01:12:38 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Uh, to end the year yeah, you can see like maybe rufus should start be start betting in the mid two figures, because in his response you can see he's lost all his drive there. So anyways, let's move on to the next topic here, coming from raheem palmer. Uh, people are in their mid to late 40s. Is there anything more depressing and maddening than when you they talk about athletes in in their thirties being old and over the hill and you're now older than those athletes? Listen, I can honestly currently relate to that, because I was thinking that Mika Parsons was a little bit old, but he is younger than me, so like that, one kind of threw me for a little bit of a loop. Let's go to the some of the veterans here on the show Kanish. 

01:13:20 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, I mean, it's a hard pill to swallow. I'll tell you that I the first. There was two segments of my life where this first was like I always loved like drafts and stuff, and when I, you know, you hit, like your your low 20s and you're like, wait a minute, all these guys who I've been, you know, following they don't. When I was sportsman 10, 12 looking up like, oh, they're old, now I'm older than them as they're getting drafted, and now it's I'm in the second phase of everybody in every league that still plays is pretty much younger than I am. So, yeah, it's a great tweet by Raheem because, yeah, you just got to take it day by day, baby. Yeah, it's a tough one. 

01:13:55 - Jason Cooper (Host)
One thing you can't dodge is old age. Mike, I don't know how old you are, but can you relate to this at all? 

01:14:01 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Way older than us, jason, yeah, yeah, but he's like, I didn't know you were so old when we were in the car. No, I remember I went to a football game with my dad when I was a little kid and people were booing the opposing team. It was a college game, uh, and he wasn't booing. And I asked him you know, dad, why aren't you booing? He goes ah, they're just kids. And I thought what a pussy. You know, these are kids, they're athletes, they're. And now I watch them and I'm like, oh, you know, he's just a 19 year old kid out there. I like it really is. When you see the college players that really like realizing that these guys are just like their children, uh, compared you. I think that's even tougher than seeing the pro athletes that are 33 and washed up. It's really, really humbling. 

01:14:45 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Chris, you're shaking your head here. What's going on? 

01:14:47 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
there. When I see an 18 year old or 19 year old kid miss a free throw, that cost me thousands of dollars. Fuck that kid. 

01:14:56 - Jason Cooper (Host)
OK, chris hashtag. Fuck them kids. Uh, what was that? Michael jordan who said that? I don't know. Anyways, let's move on to our last topic here. 

01:15:04
Um, talking about photoshopping bets, which is pretty dog shit to do, um tadpole sports betting said this shit is so photoshopped it's insane. The ticket is real, but he posts dozens a day. I think he's putting 750 on each one. Look at the color. I hate these mfers lying, lying cheats dudes with low life. I'll send the whole post to my next tweet trying to put y'all on some games. Shout out to him for doing his investigative journalism there, taking my job from me, finding out that these two plays, or this one play at the top where he won $23,000, is Photoshopped. You can see the color is completely different on what would normally be a fan duel. Uh, green winning ticket. 

01:15:40
Um, and then, uh, kenny at. Kill kenny on twitter said if you bet, if you get caught photoshopping tickets, you should immediately be blackballed from the space. Enough is enough, man, expose all these clowns. And I thought it was pretty ironic talking about being blackballed from the space, because in a follow-up tweet, kill kenny posts his original tweet, a story in two pictures. It's. One picture is the original tweet. The other picture is the person who uh, photoshopped. It has blocked him and, I guess, essentially blackballed him from his feed, but I want to hear your guys takes uh, should we be encouraging the blackballing of people who photoshop tickets? 

01:16:15 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
uh, chris, we'll start with you yeah, I think it's also funny that I saw on that all in eight guys twin uh pin p a pin tweet that he's got like a thank you fando sports book for buying me my new car or whatever and it's like all he's like faking all the slips and everything like that. Like this is just pure posturing. It's obvious how these guys make the money. If you are faking slips, you deserve to be blackballed. And it's also funny to see other scammers in the space. I'm not the two guys that we linked. I don't know anything about them. I'm not referring to them. I'm referring to other people. Criticize people faking tweets when they are doing other things that are just as bad. It's very funny to see the the tout wars here yeah, tout wars going on and on kanish any thoughts? 

01:17:02 - Joey Knish (Host)
yeah, just the all-in-aid guy is like the, the modern day vegas dave of fake slips like he. He's like, he's changed the. You know the game. If there's one guy out there, I think he's the guy who's doing like, just like massive uh, yeah, and he's, I don't know he's. I think he has a big following too. So, yeah, good to see some people calling him out. It's just how many people are actually, you know, out there still buying into what he's selling. So, but credit to those guys for for doing some of the legwork. 

01:17:29 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, all good, michael. Let you close up the show here. 

01:17:31 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, I just get your investigative reporting skills on. I got a source actually that sent me in something earlier today. Uh flops, koshi tickets. I think that there might be some questions about how real those are. Maybe I've gotten a little birdie told me that maybe there's some Photoshop going on there. I don't know. 

01:17:51 - Chris Dierkes (Host)
Oh, you'll never know. You'll never know. 

01:17:53 - Jason Cooper (Host)
We'll have to address the allegations next week on circle back, which, by the way, um, we'll have to address the allegations next week on circle back, which, by the way, um, no show next tuesday, like we talked about here earlier, but there will be a show live at bet bash. So if you're gonna be at bet bash, come by check us out. I think it's sold out. 

01:18:07 - Joey Knish (Host)
Uh, the the show, yeah there might be a way that you can. I don't know, are we recording and distributing that, or is it? 

01:18:12 - Jason Cooper (Host)
just, we are going to do our best to record and distribute, but it's sort of out of our hands, so we'll see. It's a tbd. We're going to do our best to record and distribute it, though. But if you're going to be at that bash, uh, yeah, do us a favor, be there, show up, shake uh, say hello to us and hopefully, if you're not already signed up for the show, you can kind of squeak your way in there. I won't tell anybody, I promise, um, but yeah, no show again next tuesday, like we mentioned another canadian holiday. 

01:18:37
We're traveling for bet bash. I don't know how you want us to record that Right. Like it would, we would have to record on Saturday, which is the day after we work a weekend. 

01:18:46
We covered everything that's happened so far this week. We got to. We got to leave some room for things to breathe on the gambling Twitter spaces. They're not. There's not enough stuff in the off season that we can go through anyways, that wraps up the show for us here today. That's it from circles back. Thank you so much for tuning in. Please make sure you check us out on twitter at circles off hq. Make sure you hit that like button if you enjoyed the content. Subscribe as well if you're new to the channel, if you want to see more content like this. We'll be back very, very soon and we hope to see you then.