These Are The Lessons That Sports Bettors Learn The Hard Way | Presented by Kalshi

Circles Off

2025-11-14

In the ever-evolving world of sports betting, knowledge and strategy are key to turning potential pitfalls into opportunities. The latest episode of Circle Back on the Circles Off channel, hosted by Jacob Germania, dives deep into the intricacies of sports betting, offering a wealth of insights and strategies for both novice and seasoned bettors.

Meet the Experts

Joining Jacob Germania are some of the most insightful voices in the betting community: Mike, aka Mr. Peanut Better, Joey Knish, and Porter from BA Analytics. Each brings a unique perspective to the table, dissecting betting odds, market dynamics, and the often-overlooked aspects of bet sizing and market liquidity.

Decoding Market Dynamics

One of the standout topics of the episode is the discussion on betting odds for Florida's next head coach, as highlighted by a recent tweet from David Soderquist. This conversation opens up a broader dialogue on how bettors should approach market odds and limits. Mike shares his personal journey from misunderstanding to mastery, emphasizing the importance of understanding betting limits and how they contribute to market efficiency.

Porter further expands on the discussion by exploring opportunities in smaller, less scrutinized markets. He underscores the significance of bet sizing and liquidity, drawing attention to the discrepancies that can occur across different betting platforms. This episode is particularly eye-opening as it challenges the common perception that small bets, such as $25 limits, lack significance in the larger market picture.

Challenging Misconceptions

The episode also addresses the role of the media in shaping betting narratives. Kanish highlights the pitfalls of using betting odds to drive sensationalist stories, which often overlook the complexities of market hold and implied probabilities. The conversation underscores the importance of critical thinking and due diligence for bettors, reminding listeners to approach betting odds with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Conclusion

Whether you're just starting out in sports betting or looking to refine your strategy, this episode of Circle Back is a must-listen. Packed with practical advice and expert insights, it equips bettors with the tools they need to navigate the betting landscape more effectively. As always, remember to engage critically with betting odds and market trends, and to form your own opinions based on thorough research and analysis.

Tune in to Circle Back on the Circles Off channel to unlock the secrets of smarter sports betting and elevate your game to the next level. Don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe for more valuable content from the Hammer Betting Network.

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Episode Transcript

00:00 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions.

00:37
Welcome to Circle Back here on the Circles Off channel. It's part of the Hammerback Network and presented proudly presented, that is by Cal Street. This is a show where we cover the latest and greatest topics that come from gambling. Twitter and a lot of the topics this week are focused in on the lessons that sports bettors can often learn the hard way. We're looking to change that here today. A lot of advice is going to be thrown your way on today's episode, so if you get any value from it, make sure you do hit the like button and subscribe to the channel for more content. Just like it. I am your host here on Circleback. My name is Jacob Germania. I am a creator and producer for the Hammer Betting Network and joining me on the show. Today we have the normal two of Mike aka Mr Peanut Better. Then we also have Joey Knish, co-host on the Hit the Books channel, which is the Hammers NCAA football content division, and our fourth for today is Porter of BA Analytics. Porter, how are you doing today? Thank you for joining us.

01:32 - Porter (Host)
Doing good. Doing good. Haven't been on in a while. Glad to be back.

01:36 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
You've been ruffling some feathers on Twitter as of late, so good to have you on. You get to really give your opinion on some of these things here today. But without further ado, let's jump into the topics for today. Like I said, a lot of the topics today are going to be focused in on helping giving advice and things of that nature. And the first topic that we have comes from first of all. It comes from david soderquist, who says updated betting odds for florida's next head coach, per BetOnline and what it does. It lists a bunch of head coaches that could potentially be getting hired.

02:11
And a quote tweet came in from the tailgate tent, who said would caution people into believing things based on $25 limits. Dave Mason of BetOnline has been doing this for over a decade and he's damn good at it, and I really like this topic because it brings up a conversation that I really want to have. But before I get into what I want to say, let's go first of all to Mike. Mr Peanutbetter, do you agree with what's being said here by the tailgate tent?

02:37 - Mr. Peanutbettor (Host)
For sure. Yeah, I used to kind of see these things before I understood how limits worked and all that stuff. Whenever I would see these things, I would immediately take it as oh wow. People give probably a false level of expertise to professional bettors and the knowledge that they know, especially about things like this. So I think that, yeah, a lot of people just see those odds. They don't understand limits. Why would you understand how much of market is more efficient, made by its limits kind of, if you weren't in this business? So I think it's a great PR strategy, but it means nothing in the long term.

03:11 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
And we'll go to you, porter, I guess for today anything to add on this conversation.

03:16 - Porter (Host)
Yeah, so I mean obviously what was said before accurate. You know you always have to pay attention to bet sizing, but you know this same exact market also exists on CalSheet and there's quite a bit of volume you can get and if you take a I just took a little look over there the numbers don't really line up between the two sites. So yeah, it's true that here you know you're not really going to get any information from $25 bets, though I have seen other head coach markets and the lines are moving. So even on those $25 bets, mason over here is moving lines. But really if you fish around there's other places where you can actually get more down on this. So like, while this market might be small here, there's liquidity sometimes in other places to find.

04:06 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I think my biggest qualm with with markets like this is when reporters often use the odds to drive a story. So, for example, they'll take Lane Kiffin, who is minus 300 at BetOnline, and they'll take that and say, well, he's an implied probability of 75% to become Florida's next head coach, not taking into account the hold that is in this market, because the second person on this list is that plus 120, which is like 45% implied probability, and already we can see that we are well over 100%. So there is a ton of hold in markets like this and it doesn't lead to accurate stories but can make for a very clickable title for articles. Kanish, do you ever see things like that? Does it agitate you as much as it agitates me?

04:41 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, I mean Mason's running the old play. He's been running this playbook for a long time with the $25 limits, but I agree Also great, I mean that's why we brought him back on the show. Great segue. Now, in the prediction market era, there is actually maybe not a ton, but much more liquidity than $25 with like.