"Those who can, WIN; those who can’t, TOUT?” | Presented by Kalshi

00:18 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
coming up in today's episode of Circle. 

00:20 - Flup (Host)
Back. I don't know if this is an insult or a compliment. 

00:22 - Joey Knish (Host)
to be honest, I think it's a positive, because you don't want to look like China. 

00:28 - Flup (Host)
Age-old phrase here is true those who can do and those who can't Fuck. I fucked it up. Can we edit that? 

00:35 - Jason Cooper (Host)
No we can't. 

00:37 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Do it again those who can't speak stutter and those who can speak clearly speak Fuck Disclaimer can't speak clearly. 

00:45 - Jacob Gramagna (Host)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions it's circle back here on the circles off channel. 

01:39 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It's part of the hammer bendic network and it's presented by cal she. This is the show where we cover the latest and greatest stories on gambling Twitter, and sometimes our guests find their way into the mix. But we'll get to that shortly, with myself, jason Cooper, here Filling in for Jacob Grimeña as he travels the world in an attempt to source a knee brace sponsorship for the Hammer. But, chris Kanish, you're back, as you normally are here on the friday show, but today, mr peanut butter, in the fourth chair, this is your second time on the show, third time on the channel. 

02:15 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Welcome back, mr peanut better yeah, well, when rob invited me, he made it very clear it was because someone else backed out, so I think that he was doing that to motivate me. So I have another good performance, so we'll see if I have a third, all right. Well, I liked your, uh, when you came on last. It was because someone else backed out, so I think that he was doing that to motivate me. So I have another good performance. So we'll see if I ever get a third, all right. 

02:27 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Well, I liked your when you came on last time, so I'm sure you'll be great again this time. Now, before we get into things, Kanish, I've got a little bit to talk to you about here. You've been getting in some controversy, excuse me. At the network, at the network new producer over at hit the books is saying you're giving them a hard time, we gotta. 

02:46 - Joey Knish (Host)
Here's the problem. The last I wasn't with the company when we hired some of the last round of producers you being one of them, uh, jacob, and then they didn't get americanized, they got the canadian. Like we work three hours or something. You know if you show up or you don't, if the slide's ready or it's not no big deal, I'm giving them the little taste of actual capitalism that you know we have higher standards here. There's a reason the GDP of America is, you know, 8,000 times what it is in Canada, there, and it's because people actually work here in this country. So, yeah, we'll have to see, you know, if they take the reins and, uh, really show up. Otherwise, maybe, maybe we start looking in, uh, you know, this country for another producer. We'll see how it goes. But happy to have a new official producer, since, you know, since zach now thinks he's, uh, yeah, like on the least broadcast yeah, no, uh, I'm here to. 

03:40 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I'm honestly here to babysit you. That's what moretto and uh rob have tasked me to do here. Kanish, you're always getting in trouble, but that's not the only dispute that you've got into this week. Let's get into our first topic of the day here. Joey Toons officially going tout started off by tweeting a picture of Circa Swim. He says we own the football market. After moving some lines and futures with Circa Sports, we appreciate the sponsorship. Jeff Benson, Vegas looks good. Now I know some of you guys got got by this thinking this was a real thing. Obviously, not a real thing, Photoshop. But in a further tweet he explains it a little bit more. 

04:17
Joey Toons officially going tout specifically referencing how hard it has become for him to get down on legals and bookies with so much limiting and stiffing going on His accounts. Feels like he gets shut down very quickly. Also feels like offshore books are not to be trusted. They're either low liquidity outside of the few high credit spots. And then the last thing he mentions there is that he will now have access, that the people will now have access to plays that were normally private. So let's kick things off here with Joey Toons going tout. Kanish, I know you were big in going after him. Let's save that for a bit, because I want to talk about that a little bit later. Flop, let's start with you. What are your thoughts on Toons and his transition to going tout Well? 

05:04 - Flup (Host)
I think Kanish had already tweeted this out, your thoughts on uh condition or, sorry, on tunes and his uh transition to go in town. Well, I think ignition already tweeted this out. But the point is, what I don't understand is, if it's so hard to get down, how do you expect your customers to get down like this seems like very illogical. So it's like I can't win, so I'm gonna sell a product. So you guys can't win, not not in regards that the picks are are bad, but in regards that I can't actually get money down and I'm stiff to too much. And this just makes it worse too, because if you're betting on like retail books or legals, they're gonna link the accounts even and they get limited even faster. 

05:41
So I think he's just telling on himself like, hey, you shouldn't buy my picks because it's not working out for me as a professional. How do we expect it to work? How do you expect it to work out for you as the consumer? Here it's, it's the weirdest decision, because, like, I don't know, this is like the worst advertising pitch of all time. At least try to be like you know, one of those scam touts that like say they win and win all the time, like this is just terrible advertising pitch yeah, no for sure, and I mean you mentioned it, so might as well bring it up here. 

06:11 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Kanish, going back and forth with tunes, uh, kanish, I guess you can give your little take here. I'll just preface it for the audience. Uh, joey, you, you mentioned on twitter. How can you tell people it's hard to get down? Nowadays can't trust any pph books. Nobody has capitals for accounts. The plays burn accounts, slash too much clv and then turn around and sell those people a pick package for 2.2 thousand dollars. Um toons wasn't afraid to hit back. He said you don't have to be scared to tag me. I know you took the small paying job being pazola's. 

06:38 - Joey Knish (Host)
Uh jokes on him. I don't get paid at all for this, it's all right, neither, neither do I. 

06:43 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I can't say that word because we're still too early in the video giving away bad picks. Or you mean panhandling josh your accounts for mexican baseball? The fact remains, I still have tons of accounts, and everything I said is true. If you were real better, you would know these things, kanish. I think the people kind of want a response to this and a reaction to this tweet. 

06:58 - Joey Knish (Host)
So I mean, the floor is yours well, I mean fluff mentioned kind of the the first aspect of it of. If it's so like you can't do anything nowadays along those lines, let me just sell my information, and maybe someone else that can get to it does a better job. I tell you what, though? This is why there's a nice conversation going on Twitter the last few days about, like, should you keep your job or not? This is why Joey K still has a job, so I don't have to end up being this Joey in a few years. So this doesn't have to be me. So I'm not out there. You know when I'm on my last leg of you know all the accounts are dead. You know some of Fluff's buddies and stuff that can actually get some of the new edges. I'm out there having to sell. You know Joey K's. You know hot dish knits pick to make a living. 

07:53 - Flup (Host)
Hang on a second. I just want to say I think you'd have to keep the job because, unlike the other two members on the panel, you're not good enough to take that next step. 

08:05 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, that's what I'm alluding to, that's what I'm saying. That's where it's all landing. It's like some of the old timers is and I don't want to get, like, you know, super introspective here, but as edges run dry and the counts close and you go over you know the life cycle of a better, it's like OK, you know you hit your I don't know tunes is probably a little older than I am. It's like you hit your 40s. A lot of what you've done and has worked for the better part of 10, 15, 20 years no longer works. What the fuck do you do now? And so his move is like well, now, like the betting aspect is kind of not going any it's, I'll call it, it's dead for me. So now I've got to start selling a pick package just for me. I don't ever want to be in that spot. Um, and I see how it goes. I'll put it that way. What do you think? 

08:51 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
uh, peanut yeah, just piggybacking on what you guys said if he was getting kicked out of books before, now that there's a public channel where you can look and see every single pick that's coming in, like it's way easier for a trader to identify it now compared to before, when they at least had to guess what was coming in, what was his, what wasn't. And you know, betting is something that it's always going to change. It's always going to. Just because you were good 10 years ago doesn't mean that you are good anymore and same for finding outs and all these things. 

09:21
The nature of it it just changes so much that it makes sense that once you've had a certain amount of success, a certain amount of you know, different areas of you know you don't want to grind that anymore. So instead of grinding it and finding ways to scale, you're going to try to use a reputation that you've earned to sell picks. I don't think that it will particularly work for people trying to get down, but you know it's he's not the first person to do this, and at least I don't know. At least I would say that the picks are likely to win If you bet them. I would guess, but I would say that you're likely to get limited pretty fast If they do win. 

09:59 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It's not hard to kind of put it together, hard to kind of put it together, it's the same thing that Raz has kind of dealt with for years. Yeah and uh, kanish, you weren't the only one with the reaction on Twitter. A couple people out there were tweeting about this. Uh redacted gambler, uh breaking. Joey Toons has gone tout. One year, 2,199 for NFL plus the CFB combo package includes one feed me t-shirt. He attached a screenshot of uh, of I guess uh To tunes his website, where it does say yes, along with the package, you do get one feed me t-shirt. And then there's also uh adrian badgerowski at badger sports service times have changed. Bill crackman selling at wager talk joy tunes selling at 2200. Uh football package. After buying sorry, after burying accounts last season and only winning 19 units in 2023, they're saying let's go's go at Rob Pozzola hashtag. Circle back NFL game day packages coming back there for a second. 

10:52 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, for sure Is he. He's promoting 2023. 

10:56 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yes, I did. I didn't even catch that yeah. 

11:03 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
So maybe the winning part I said earlier I might want to kind of pull that back a little oh man, for what it's worth. 

11:10 - Flup (Host)
I I think toons is definitely a proven winner. He's got a good track record. Yeah, I would rather buy his picks than like 99 of others. It's just like the same. It's age-old issue get down without getting limited. So I want to actually throw this back on you, peanut, as the only trader or x trader here. Have you ever had to, uh, buy packages before, like a rass kind of deal, because you wanted to help, like limit accounts when they're coming in? Did you guys do that, or do you know of anyone that was doing that? 

11:43 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Sure. So the book I worked at was actually an odds provider doing stuff for sharper books and we didn't have, you know, great profiling technology, to be honest, and we weren't limiting guys anyway. So it wasn't necessarily a situation like that. We would keep an eye out for RAS releases, during college basketball particularly, but like we weren't going through and limiting people based on what they played into these accounts and stuff like this. But you can see at least, like even from my limited knowledge, you'll see the bet ticker light up and you'll just see a flood of bets come in. Like you can know, even if you don't know who's releasing it, that someone's releasing something a lot of times. So, yeah, you can it's pretty obvious to put it back in a kind of to see where things are coming from. At least, if you're a successful tout, it's going to so it's, you know, one of those kinds of self-defeating cycles. 

12:37 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, and just one more thing here Toons mentioned or sorry, I believe it was, was Adrian mentioning Rob Pozzola, maybe joining the PICS game. Guys, you can catch our football plays over on Forward Progress at ForwardProgressHQ where you can find myself as well, and also Chris at FlupNoLied. You can find him there too. 

12:56 - Flup (Host)
We should pay people to tail us, considering how bad the PICS is. 

13:00 - Joey Knish (Host)
You know what it should be on a half of a serious note and what do you know? What Like it should be on a on a half of a serious note is like what Rob's kind of done with the hammer and the content is a little bit of what he's talked about it before. Diversification, right, whereas, like, if you don't want to be on the absolute grind through, you know, for the next 20 years, like you have been to build a band, you've kind of got to do some other things and so, whereas Tunes and Crack have used their brand and their following to then start selling packages, pizza Man's kind of gone a different way and started, you know, like what we would say like a content company here. So some people want to do that trade. 

13:38
It's just you're very rarely going to find someone that starts off trading or betting and that I mean I know sports gambling and a professional I haven't been around that long, but very rare you see someone that starts at it, you know, at a young age, in the twenties, successful, and then follows it all the way through through like 40, 50, 60. It almost just doesn't happen. It's like you have your run and then you kind of got to. You know you either ride off into the sunset you've made enough money, you do other things or you find ways like this to kind of branch off doing it. You know as like billy walters for 30, 40 years and I love it very, very rare to just you don't hear stories like that I think you see something similar with uh like coaches. 

14:22 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
A lot of times the guys who grind out, uh, you know, are some of the best schematic guys earlier in their career. By the end they're more working on prestige and become more ceo types. Um, I think if you're doing betting successfully, that's something where, uh, you know, once you get to a certain level, you have to have so much under you, um, because you're just it's not meant to grind for 50 plus years and find new edges, and that's why, you know, guys like billy are so rare is because they have that. 

14:46 - Jason Cooper (Host)
But even he, you know, you want to delegate and find people under you as much as possible yeah, uh, you guys are mentioning it's harder nowadays to win, but for some of the younger folks and uh, joey tunes is number one op on twitter uh, they find it a little bit easier to win. Kirk evans, uh, who's on the on the tuesday uh, tuesday edition of this show tweeted out. Not saying this to anyone in particular, but I'll just say in my experience, there's never been a time where it's easier to get down than in the current betting environment. The only reason it's harder for anyone to win is because it's more competitive in the market, so easier to get down. Harder to Mike. How do you feel about that? What's your thoughts on that here? Do you feel like it's? Kirk has the right sentiment there? 

15:31 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Sure. So it's a little tough for me to say, because I wasn't betting seriously. You know, probably only been doing it for three, four years, kind of at a high level where I was trying to get a lot down, had anything to worry about as far as limits. I think that there's probably a difference here between movers and guys who are originating. For Kirk it's probably been easier as originator just because with all these new, softer accounts there's more people who are becoming, you know, kind of focusing on moving and for him it probably is easier. He also probably has better connections, things like that, than he did a few years ago. So I think it probably depends on who you're talking to. In the stack there's certainly ways that you can get more. It's certainly easier for me just based on network, but I would guess for him it's a situation where it's not the same as it is for tunes. 

16:22 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, chris, you feel the same way where it's not the same as it is for tunes. 

16:23 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, Chris, you feel the same way. Yeah Well, I'm kind of in Mike's boat as well with I haven't been betting for that long that, seriously. I've heard plenty of stories. I disagree with Kirk here. I think it's definitely harder to get down compared to even as early as four years ago three years ago but it's still very easy to get down compared to even as early as four years ago three years ago, but it's still very easy to get down right now, like I've been able to get down some crazy like amounts and to win amounts and very obscure markets that don't make any logical sense. If you just know what you're doing, you can get down. But like if you actually were making your bread and butter coming up like five years ago, you probably think it's much, much harder now. So it's tough for me to say it's really what your skill set is and what you know to be. 

17:18 - Joey Knish (Host)
Kind of a nuanced question. I would say, like, for me, the easiest period to get down was right post legalization, especially legalization, my own state where that I had access to a ton of brand new accounts, casinos right next door. So it's a little curated by who you are and what time frame you've been used to there, um, and I think the type of markets too, where, uh, I saw a good tweet from a guy I'd never give him credit because he trolled me in an article one time that he wrote that's a pedicio or something. He's a smart guy, uh, online, but he even he had a post, uh, that I should have sent for the rundown. 

17:49
But a little bit saying like, in the last couple years there's been markets around like live betting or sgps or stuff that you're, if you're, you weren't in the mix, um, or you weren't, you know, you're kind of more of an old timer where you know people. You're saying like, oh, stay away from that stuff. But there's been like big time edges if you've been able to find them in some of that stuff, and so it really is curated to kind of your experience or where you're at in the world or in the country, uh, in terms of what it looks like, because even though, like just an example, like yes, my, you know, maybe the legal aspect of getting down is tougher now than it was a few years ago you have books like boom CalShe that's offering a ton of liquidity on markets that didn't exist a few years ago. So it just kind of depends on where you're at, what you're attacking and kind of what you usually go for and kind of what you usually go for. 

18:43 - Flup (Host)
Something else I want to point out there that was crazy to me is, while I didn't bet this market, they had in March Madness they had half a million in liquidity on either side at a normal $0.20, or I guess $0.10 rather spread money in my line, which was just wild to me. 

19:06 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, I think that's a bigger thing. Here is mr joey kanish, aka mr joey segway, because I was about to bring up our sponsorship. Next with uh. It looks like we're not done with the uh, uh coldplay, astronomer fiasco. 

19:17 - Joey Knish (Host)
Uh me and swap are already broke, so we can leave it to bb to talk. I already lost on my liquidity I. 

19:25 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I was gonna say that they posted a market will coldplay. Discuss the astronomer ceo affair this month. And a quick reminder you can sign up to calci at any point throughout the show using the link down in the description. Can issue took the words out of my mouth. I know that people were clamoring for you and flops picks because they want to fade accordingly, but uh, we got to get the YouTube watch time up right. We need people to watch a little bit longer here, so we'll throw to Mr Peanut better here. You mentioned you actually in our group chat. You have a good amount on it here, so tell us a little bit about what you're doing here. 

19:56 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, I was actually, you know, the one person in this chat that made money off the CEO getting fired. I was able to do some quick research on it and actually kind of deep dove into the likelihood of him getting fired and thought it was. You know, I thought it was probably close to 90%, like I thought it was pretty likely. If not, and I think that this one is pretty similar. 

20:17
I am pretty heavy on the no here. They've already had two concerts since this has happened. They made kind of a winking gesture during the one, um, and I don't think that they're just going to go ahead and talk about this during their concert. They're a pretty big band. They're not going to want to have this have their concert be about some CEO cheating on his wife constantly, like if this was some no name band that was looking for the pub, maybe, but Coldplay is a pretty big band. They are trying to sell these people something they don't do interviews publicly. Like I said, I actually went in, researched all of this. So I think no is a good price, even still at the current number. But yeah, I have actually looked into this quite a bit here. 

21:02 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, it'd be interesting to see Coldplay's tour dates and how often they're going to be on the road over the next couple days. Hopefully they don't have like a press junket in there between that, or else things could go bad. Uh, kanish flop, let us know your thoughts. So, uh, the people I know who are watching, they've been watching very, uh, very closely for this. Uh, give your official picks so that people can fade accordingly I. 

21:20 - Flup (Host)
I'm going to sit this one out, considering my horrible track record on these kinds of things. I was one of the donators that shifted my money to Mike's bank account. I want to try to stop doing that moving forward. I had no research in the last time, I just bet it during our podcast. And when I asked Mike for his like reasoning, I was like boy, did I miss the mark here? Like it was pretty well thought out. Okay, I was like boy, did I miss the mark here? It was pretty well thought out. I should spend more than 30 seconds before I make bets in the future. I have not done research on this. I'm going to default to Mike here and I'm going to side with him unless he's lying to us to try to get more of our money, which we never know. 

22:02 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Could be the move, Kanish. What are your thoughts? My thoughts are are out of sheer spite and no research. 

22:11 - Joey Knish (Host)
Give me the yes, give me the yes. Goes on there and re-ups. It gets a little stale and the next show they say oh, hope, uh, you know, sorry, sorry to our friends andy and uh kate whatever her name is coming back. So yeah, give me, give me the yes. 

22:25 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, I love it. I love it. And just a quick reminder you can sign up to CalSheet at any point throughout the show, just using the link in the description, or, if you're watching right now, there should be a QR code on your screen you can scan that. It'll take you right to their website to sign up. Any signups help support our show. Um up. 

22:45
Next we have something that's kind of been making the rounds in in the group chats that I'm in. It's a sports betting survey courtesy of us news, um, and the biggest thing that people were looking at. This is a tweet from alfonso straffen. At a straffen on twitter, he mentioned that one in four sports bettors have missed bill payments due to wagers. 

23:07
There's a couple other things uh, in this article, a couple uh graphs that were sent around, uh, one being would you say you're ahead or behind financially from sports betting over your lifetime? This one was a little bit shocking to me because the majority of the people said yes, they are ahead, and if that's the case, I don't know how the sports books are going to continue to operate. And then another one here have you done the following to get money down for a wager? And it's just a myriad of different questions like credit card or cash, advance, borrowing from a friend, personal loan, payday loan, title loan, and the overwhelming majority had no. I have not done either of those things. Let's throw to flop here to weigh in first. Any thoughts on on this article. I know you gave it a read, so, uh, what are your thoughts on? 

23:49 - Flup (Host)
this. I think it's pretty sad in in general, like I saw captain jack tweeting something like saying oh, this shows that there's no worry. I don't know how he came to that conclusion reading this. I like captain jack a lot here, but I'm looking at this and I'm seeing how many people are taking out loans to make bets. Terrifying One fourth of people are missing bill payments. That's also horrible and it doesn't surprise me at all. 

24:13
The majority of people think that they win because there's like so many studies on this kind of thing. If you ask people on average, like, are you a good or a bad driver, almost everyone is going to say they're a good driver. Well, like, someone needs to be bad, someone needs to be like just the law of averages here. It's the same with, like, sports betting we we know that only one or two percent of people win. Uh, odds are 65 percent of that. People uh pulled are not the one or two percent of the population that win. So it just shows that, like, most people are probably not tracking and if you're not tracking, you can fool your brain to thinking that you're winning or just lie to yourself. And then it's really sad to see that, like a good. 25 to 33% of people are taking out loans and missing payments. 

25:00
To that and I think I've said this before and I'll say it again I think sports betting is really could be the next opioid epidemic if there's not some like good regulation put in place in terms of safety. Now do I trust the government to do that? Absolutely not. So I'm going to oppose regulation in general, but it doesn't seem like there's a way to this just doesn't end very, very poorly for America. I mean, just look at Australia. Australia is terrible. There's so many gambling addicts there. It's just horrible. 

25:33 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, Mike, you had some thoughts here on that. You want to share them a bit. 

25:37 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, it's just. I don't know how anyone can look at what has been put up there and consider it a win. It's certainly not sustainable. If you want to have a business, that is, you know, more than just a flash in the pan. You can't have people missing serious payments and have them continue to be customers at some point or at least you know, in the betterment of society. You would hope that that's not a continuing case here, but luckily they have things that you can go ahead and self-exclude yourself, so I think that that will be enough. That will probably solve this entire issue shortly. 

26:11 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, honestly, I'm actually interested to hear your guys' positions because I don't want to say I'm opposite to you guys here, but I feel like I have a different point of view because I have a lot of friends who are not a lot younger than you guys, but some that are younger than you guys. And I see some people who are not a lot younger than you guys but some that are younger than you guys and and I see them who I see some people who are already financially illiterate falling into these traps and like they would miss these credit card payments, whether it would be from a sports book as a result of gambling or not. I think it's more so to do with, like how illiterate a lot of people are financially, um, than than anything else. I get what you Flop. 

26:44
A lot of people do fall into the trap where they feel like they're winning. Like an example, I have a friend who every year at a Super Bowl party he always tells me how much he's winning at the casino. Then I tell him to pull up his PNLs from Casino Lifetime and he's down and he's always shocked by it. But I've done it multiple times to him, but in his head when that is at the forefront of his mind. But yeah, I can see your point. I can see how things could get a little scary here, but I don't know. Do you guys think that just people could just be financially illiterate in general? Is that something? Or am I missing the mark here? 

27:17 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
No, there's definitely a chance of that. I know people that told me it's actually cheaper if you eat out than if you try to get groceries in because, like, by the time I pay for all the groceries it's more. And it's just a similar effect with sports betting. You can see where people are like actually, you know in the long run I'm winning and they're not, but people are going to fool themselves. 

27:36
The problem with sports betting is, you know, at least in the other one, you know you're losing money of some sort and you have to eat anyways. You might be kind of losing more, but sports betting is the only one where you actually think it's a positive for you in the long run. So it's a little bit different in that regard. But yeah, I would guess that a lot of these people, if sports betting wasn't a thing, also would still be missing bill payments. So it might just be a question of how many bill payments have you met and do you or have you missed and do you also bet on sports? But you know, any kind of extra cost like that obviously is going to be a tax on people who are financially struggling to get by absolutely, and I I'm known to have some bad takes. 

28:13 - Jason Cooper (Host)
So I'm curious to hear the people's thoughts in the comment section down below. I'm sure it'll be lit up with how poor my takes are. But listen, I'm not. I'm not trying to like, make no mistake. The risk of ruin is real. Uh, you're betting. And also it's very real when you're betting super big favorites, like we saw this past week. We have to lead with this one here. Ben Carey tweets out you can't make this up because man of the Vague said there is a 0% chance. 

28:39
Venus Williams wins six games of a professional tennis match today. And then the timeline, the x timeline, doing what it does best, tweet directly below it venus williams, after becoming the oldest wta match winner, since 2004. For those who don't know, venus williams wins her match. But men of the vague was not the only one caught up in this commotion. Fozan poker was another one who I mean I wish I could pull up the tweet, but he deleted his account who tweeted out how I forget something along the lines of would you pick up $200 if it was on the ground? And he ended up fluff. I'm not sure how much he lost because I don't have the screenshot anymore. Do you know how much he lost on that? 

29:18 - Flup (Host)
Well, he lost $4,000, and then he tried to bet on the Dodgers to chase and I had to tweet. I tweeted that because I took the opposite side of that just to troll him and he lost that and then he deleted his account. I tried messaging him on Telegram too, and he deleted that too. So I think he doesn't want to hear any negative comments right now, which I find pretty funny. I'm sure he'll be back at some point and he's obviously up still very, very much, so it's not a big deal to him, but it's just funny to see that it finally blew up in some small way. 

29:59 - Joey Knish (Host)
I love it. I love it. And you know why? Because I know he's listening to this. I know he's still dripping out there, and that I love. He couldn't take the heat in the kitchen, baby. It was all gravy for Fosen when these minus 10,000s were winning. He's gaining followers. Everybody's fine. Everyone's doing their own. Like you know, people are tagging him like oh look, free money, fosen, what a great idea. And then it all burnt down one sweet day in July in the hot summer in the Midwest. I know he's in Iowa somewhere, you know, in a basement right now, shivering, thinking that it all fell apart. And to give, I got to give. 

30:38
You know Fluff, the fact that not only was it a tennis loser, venus comes out smokes to whoever she was playing. Then Fluff doubles down on the other side. He'll be back. I love that little snake. You know he's a little snake. Crawled in his cage after a couple losses. He doesn't like the DMs oh, people are being mean to me in the DMs. Oh, couldn't take the heat. I know we'll be back, but I love that he had to tap out and it finally caught up to him. 

31:10 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Baby fades in his back well, sorry with all due respect to fosen, man of the big is having one of the generational fade runs of all time. We're talking a guy. He can't pick nba winners. He can't pick tennis winners. I don't know what he's doing claiming to be, you know, some betting expert. Here you, I found myself with a sizable position against Venus Williams. I keep adding to she doesn't have the coaching, you know, or the effort when the players are actually trying. 

31:38
I will say, at least you know, he continues to give bad take after bad take and stays on Twitter and takes the bullets whether it's, you know, betting, financial, whatever it is just general life takes. He takes the bullets instead of Fosun, but I think he's a real story here. 

31:54 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, the generational loser. But you know what, being willing to take the losses and roll with the punches, that is incredibly admirable. I was sad to see Fosun delete his account. I just think that screenshot that I took this morning for the video is hilarious, chris, what you tweeted, because at the bottom you can see the post from this account no longer exists for those watching over on youtube. And hey, if you're watching on youtube, do us a favor. Smash that like button. Goes a long way for us in the algorithm. 

32:20 - Joey Knish (Host)
One last thing on it is I, I, we, we had a conversation. I, I like foes I know we're joking around here I like the guy, I know he's, you know, successful over the long term. I did find it a little dangerous in terms of and I think he got some of that feedback via dms, where people who are for lack of a better term kind of retarded out there that don't understand it's a bit and don't understand, like you know, he's kind of doing this as a thing that you have some people then who are like, oh, I can just bet minus 5,000s and win, and then like, oh, if one loses, then I'll just go bet this MLB favor and lose. So I do think that that messaging could have been a bit you know. 

33:04 - Flup (Host)
To be fair, like he says every other tweet, don't tell me he has it in his bio. Don't tell me he has it in his bio. Don't tell me these are negative EV picks. Like what do you want him to do? I don't know. Yeah, I hear you. Like a giant red X on every post, just like, don't tell me, don't tell me, I'm a fish. Like what do you want him to do? He's being as like, honorable as he can. He's having a lot of fun. You can't protect every idiot yeah, correct. 

33:32 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, you can't. Yeah, just at some point, people are going to do what they're going to do. 

33:37 - Flup (Host)
So, and I mean I think uh mike brought up the most important issue here is what is man of the big gonna do to turn it around? I mean, has this got a hit on? Has this been on the right side of anything in the last four months? Here we need a community effort to help him out. I'm worried that he might have to declare bankruptcy at some point. He hasn't been right on anything. 

33:58 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
He could. Maybe he could try to sell his accounts to Toons who needs them at this point in time. 

34:08 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Try to get some more down. All right, I hope for the best for man of the vague here. I mean, he's on a generational bad run. Um, I don't know what he's gonna do. Which brings us to our next topic here, which is the development in the uh, terry rosier case. According to covers, espn is reporting that a better place? 30 wagers in 46 minutes on various sports books at book apps in $13,000 on Terry Rozier's unders during a 2023 game between the Hornets and the Pelicans. All 30 bets won after Rozier exited 10 minutes into the game with a foot injury. Shout out to Joseph Frida at Reload Sports for the hashtag circle back. If you want to get on the conversation on Twitter, just hashtag circle back at any tweet. You see, and it'll probably come up on this show. Um, who wants to lead here? Uh, mp, I'm mpb. Sorry, mr peanut, better. Uh, you want to lead here for this one? 

35:02 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
yeah, I. I think it's really misleading and you can tell who and who hasn't jammed the kiosk based on these uh things. It's actually three bets that lost and it's 30 bets in the sense that they made a large wager at the counter, then went to the kiosk and jammed it as much as they could, making the same bet over and over and over again. This is something that I've probably done 50 plus times. You know Joey loves kiosk as well. I'm sure he's done something similar to this. 

35:29
It, you know, leaving the middle of the game wasn't on the injury report before it. That can be sketchy, sure, but a player going and betting what they can at the counter, getting a large bet, then going to the kiosk and betting it as much as they can, is something that happens quite often and I think you could tell who and who hasn't, you know, bet that way based on how they reacted. And if you think this is like it's not actually 30 bets losing, it's essentially a bunch of bets that they made smaller amounts in just so they could bet a larger amount. And if they are rigging the game, please do it for more than 13K. Yeah. 

36:05 - Joey Knish (Host)
You had some good tweets that are like responsive to this about people. I feel like it was presented in a very either people didn't understand the method, like you're saying, or it was presented in kind of a disingenuous manner to get a bunch of clicks and rage bait and all this and so now if most normies that are seeing that tweet or that information presented that way are like guilty, they're like putting the hammer down like it's absolutely, it's a scam, the league's rigged, everything's going to win in some situations, jonte porter, and that there was obvious, like you know, a backup evidence to support that in this instance, it doesn't. I don't see, you know, like a lot of you know, nefarious action, or at least what's out there so far, especially the way you presented it. Um, that that like anything happened here, but you would get them right now, the majority of people would tell you that, yes, that was obvious. Cheating rosier should be suspended, all that he's, you know he's gaming that type of scenario hold on flop. 

37:08 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Have you ever dealt with a case where people went off on assumptions and assumed that there was cheating, when there was pretty clear evidence that it wasn't going on? Could you ever speak to something like that? 

37:20 - Flup (Host)
You know, I think something happened on Twitter a few weeks ago and it ran amok, and unfortunately, this is what happens when you have uneducated people educating other uneducated people. It doesn't end well. And something I just wanted to say is Mike and Kanish are like much better at the kiosks than I am at this point, but I've done the same thing. It's like there'll be a palp and like you'll hit it on like a retail book and a way to get more down is just like parlaying other like aspects, so I'll just like mash one side and I'll have like a hundred different bets with one key leg and a different thing. It's like if you looked at my account, you'd be like, oh my god, I must be like rigging the games or no. I'm just trying to get more, more money down. It's like I don't even know how do these people like get these positions to write these articles. This is truly incredible. 

38:15 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
The article itself, to be fair, is a little more clear than what it's being presented on Twitter. So the article goes into it's actually, you know, three bets, that whatever, and then, of course, you can take the most headlining part of it and post it, and whether it's actually not reading the article within or it's a situation where, more likely, I think, they want the retweets of 30 bets. 

38:40 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, and you guys can correct me if I'm wrong here, jacob would have been better suited for this. But the Jaunte Porter situation you guys can correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe they were in the hundreds of thousand dollars on, uh their positions, over 1.2 million, I think. Oh wow okay, so it's like like again, like terry rosier, being in on this for 1300 seems a little bit fishy. Probably more like a kiosk jam than anything else there is a chance. 

39:06 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
someone could have known that his foot was hurt, um, and that got leaked out and they thought, well, well, you know he might be hurt and Rozier had no idea that this information leaked out. That's obviously far, far different than a game being rigged in that, so you know, inside information leaking out to I. You know it's not ideal, but it's something that can happen, I think, without the integrity of the game being ruined. Something like Jontae Porter is totally different. 

39:30 - Flup (Host)
Was, I think, without the integrity of the game being ruined. Something like Jante Porter is totally different. Was it you who tweeted out Peanut about how, like you over here, like a janitor over here, is like something being said like oh, roger's injured right now, or something like that? And then this person who gets this information that's making like not a lot of money, might have a connect to someone and be like, hey, can we earn off of this information and that $13, like not a lot of money might have a connect to someone and be like, hey, can we earn off of this information? And that $13,000 means a lot of money to them. And it's like perfectly logical that Rozier had nothing to do with this at all. Like I, this is just a very possible theory and I think this is a lot of how information gets leaked in ways that the athletes themselves had nothing to do with it. 

40:11 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, that makes perfect sense, and we see leaks like this happen all the time. Um, when it comes in the gambling space, it's part of the game, right? So, whether you think it's good or bad, curious to hear your comments down below. What's up everyone? Jason cooper here. Some of you know me as takes by j on twitter. Look, I'm not going to sit here and pretend I'm the sharpest better on this network. That title apparently belongs to Uncle K. Just ask him, but I do know this. 

40:34
Supporting our sponsors is one of the best ways to help us keep making content. We're picky about who we work with. If it's not a good product or something we'd actually use, we don't promote it, period. So if you're watching this and you want to support what we're building at the hammer, check out the sponsor in the description below you. Clicking that link helps me keep talking sports and, occasionally, saying something smart. Speaking of your comments, let's get into your comments right now. We got a couple of comments from last week this one also, by the way. For these comments, fluff. I don't know who you paid off to source these comments that I got sent because they're very positive towards you. So I don't know who you paid off to source these comments that I got sent because they're very positive towards you. So I don't know, something must be going right there. But somebody said Chris looks, I don't know. You can tell me if this is positive or not? 

41:17
Chris looks like the opposite of what a professional sports better would look like. China looks exactly what I think a professional sports better would look like. Do you agree with that, chris? Do you like being billed as a sports better? Do you it look like? Do you? Do you agree with that, chris? Do you like being billed as a? Uh sports better? Do you want people walk around? 

41:36 - Flup (Host)
knowing you're a sports better. Are you okay, uh, with the mask that you wear, looking like a normal dude? I don't know if this is an insult or compliment. 

41:39 - Joey Knish (Host)
To be honest, I think it's a positive, because you don't want to look like china. 

41:42 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, his hair's been gone for 30 years, so now that's a win I'm curious if, um, joey and Mike, if you guys do this at all. Whenever I go to the kiosks which I don't do too often anymore, but when I did, I would always wear like I would dress up a little bit more degenerate. I would wear like I bust out my Jordans on, I had a Jersey on and I would come up and like, oh, I want to bet on this Cause. I thought you know, when I'm betting at the counter, like hey, if they look at me, maybe the manager approves me. But if they look at like I guess someone like China, they're like not this guy. I don't know if you guys do that or think it helps in any way, but that is something I do. 

42:22 - Joey Knish (Host)
If you're an infrequent flyer, if you're going to someplace for like the first time or something, I could see that. But uh, you know if you're going to a spot over and over and over again that it's going to get you, no matter what, no matter. You know if you're dressed like in a hoodie, like China, or you know you got a suit on. 

42:39 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
So yeah, I, last time I went, I hadn't been in a while and I was cashing just a bunch of tickets and, uh, the lady handed me back and it was, you know, over the limit where they would check your ID and she goes oh honey, this is over, because she knew that I would go right up to the limit of where they would check your ID back in the day before. Oh, as much as you could cash without them actually checking. So she gave me the ticket back and I told her it's OK, you can actually check it this time. 

43:03 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right. Well, let's get on to the next comment here coming from Civilly anon, which is a play on civilian and anonymous. Uh, they ask, do you get any less satisfaction? Winning off of picks from people that you're moving for be serious joy. I guess I could throw to you for this one, uh, any takes on that? 

43:21 - Joey Knish (Host)
um, I mean and at the end of the day the money's all green but sure you would have some sense of more personal satisfaction around something that you have, you know originated, even if you're not what you know quote, unquote originator. But if you dug into something and you know found it or it's like my own opinion or that, then yeah, you'd get a little bit more personal satisfaction. But I think part of it. If you're going to be like moving professionally or moving at a high level, you've got to take that ego and you know, unbiased. If someone is sending me an MLB position, a WNBA position, things, leagues that I have absolutely no idea about, you just make the fucking bet. You know what I'm saying. 

44:05
I'm not going to be like oh you know, I don't know, belferese A plus eight I think there should be nine and a half, because you know, I saw, you know, a TikTok that had them looking pretty good or something. So yeah, I think it's just personal satisfaction. Do I like when I come in I can, you know, rub it in somebody's face? If it's my own take, then yeah, but otherwise you kind of got to take that unbiased you know nature of it than than getting in there and kind of being like I, I have all these takes. 

44:34 - Jason Cooper (Host)
So yeah, do you make sure that everyone who sends you, uh, indiana fever plays. They have the sophie cunningham factored in there. 

44:38 - Joey Knish (Host)
You make sure that's baked in yeah, if they, depending on if, when she has the pre-game walk, if she's looking like super fine, then you got to upgrade the pr by a half point, so that that's the joey kpr rating. So if he's looking good then yeah, the fever should be a little bit higher rated all right model, then you know what I mean, money is green, right, so like it doesn't matter. 

44:58 - Flup (Host)
The only thing that really affects me is if, um, if I can't get a big enough fill now and I'm moving for someone, that means I've got to like give them a piece. But like I just had a spot a little while ago where I got an enormous fill on a new partner I'd never bet with before and I was plenty happy to win that one, even though I didn't do anything to come up with the bet. It was a nice experience there. 

45:21 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right. Next and last comment here If the likes of Brett Feinsod can get on that show in reference to the poker show that you guys talked about last week fluff is more than qualified. Would love to see him play on the stream. Let's start the campaign. 

45:36 - Flup (Host)
Let's start the campaign right now fluff I'm actually confirmed on, I will all right. Well then, that's easy. 

45:42 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I was gonna say make your case right now, but like, all right, you're gonna be there, tell us more about it yeah, um, I was giving giving Ryan Feldman about this. 

45:49 - Flup (Host)
While I'll be on the show on August 6th, I'm hoping to get onto a little bit of a higher stakes game, but typically they need to vet the players more for that because they don't really want a lot of professionals there, which kind of makes sense. So we'll see if I'm able to get on. I'm excited for that. With respect, I'm not really wanting to play as low stakes as Brett is. 

46:13 - Joey Knish (Host)
I have a bit of a bigger bankroll than he does, so yeah, With all due respect as you shove the knife right in his back. 

46:22 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Well, if you have any kind of you know stones, you go ahead and you push someone's chips over at that next one. 

46:34 - Flup (Host)
Tell. 

46:34 - Joey Knish (Host)
Pizzola that you're there. I never you better fucking again talk about that. 

46:39 - Flup (Host)
That was okay. I told rob like calmly, like hey, in private games in in like those kind of setups, it makes sense if you know the person and rob just like ignores all that and attacks me in the return fire, which I found very offensive and ridiculous, like that was just pure slander I was gonna say that it's something about you know canadians they're not as hard on each other. 

47:01 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
And then you say, well, it's offensive that he was picking on my tape, so you really kind of ruined that attack for me flop yeah, I mean, uh, listen, I I want to. 

47:11 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I want to go after kanish right now for this entire poker segment because I I need the the chat here to back me up, because before the show I talked to you guys about this, one of the one of the creators on there, one of the people on that show is named sashimi, named after the japanese food, sashimi kanish. 

47:25 - Joey Knish (Host)
You've never heard of sashimi before, apparently neither is anyone else on this show if had heard of this if you've ever had sushi, you've had sashimi. 

47:33 - Jason Cooper (Host)
That's a real thing, please. Uh, everyone comment down below so these guys can stop gaslighting me that sashimi is not a real thing. It's a very clearly a food. Uh, that's there. You guys are making me go crazy over this. Anyways, that wraps up the comment section. As always, drop your comments down below. If you have any takes about the show you may have, you have a chance to get referenced next next week on on the friday edition of circle back. 

47:57
Let's get into vouching and the topic of vouching. Um this one. This tweet comes from tom senior at tom junior seat. Jrsr talks about a little bit story about getting a vouch for a PPH. He wins a little bit Accounts, gets closed, asks for a settle. The guy says that you're insane. He brings up the vouch and then chaos ensues. You can see it on the screen right now. 

48:24
I'm not going to read through it all, but this kind of spawned a greater conversation about vouching and what is vouching? Ferris saying tom senior obviously in the right, and the other guy sounds like a piece of shit, but this also does pop up monthly these days. I think it's time to replace the do you vouch for so and so with if I win money and this person refuses to pay, are you willing to pay me the money? Oh, the term vouch has become too ambiguous, as flop has learned. And then, finally, from big buck hunter, people are afraid the answer to the specific question will be no, and the onus is on them to make informed decision, a decision, excuse me about the risk. Uh, flop, I want to start with you here. What's your opinion on vouching? Do we need to, like, change how we talk about it as betters? Uh, what are your thoughts here? 

49:12 - Flup (Host)
yeah, I think um henry big mac hunter really nailed it here with that comment. Um, something I do a little bit differently when I'm asking for, for stuff, I always clarify I I say, if I'm stiffed here, will you pay back? At what amount to? It's not like, yes, I'll pay back. Because another thing that's that's not even they didn't get mentioned here is if I say, hey, I hard vouch um joey knish. 

49:40
Well, if someone, like if someone, uh, if joey knish were to scam someone for five thousand dollars and I hard vouch, I'd pay it. If it was for five, I'm sorry, you're out of luck. I'm not giving you $5 million. Maybe I'm a scumbag at that point, but that's not happening. So it's on the onus of the person to say you hard vouch and how much do you hard vouch. So it needs to be very, very clear and, like Henry said, you guys, the audience and other bettors need to be very, very clear and specific here. I think Tom Jr, I like him, but he should share some of the blame with this for not being more specific. Now, maybe he was and I'm not seeing it, but if you're not specifically clearly asking, I kind of put the onus a little bit on you. 

50:28 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, you know what? Yeah, I think in today's climate especially, you know it was obviously labeled like a pph account and that the the stiff risk just from the bookie on the end of it is is at such a high risk now, depending on you know what tactics you know tom's using to get down plays and all that that it really has to be either defined beforehand or, as you're saying, fluff. You kind of have to if you're going to be in the industry. There's like an assumption of risk that you're going to have to take. If you're doing high volume PPH accounts and we talked a little bit about at the beginning of the show the stiff risk is probably as high as it's ever been. 

51:12
And if I'm vouching for somebody or I'm vouching for an account same deal where, like, if it's a few dimes, I'm just going to eat it. You know what I'm saying. I'm going to eat it, I'm going to pay it. That's why, like you know, in the old days you would have I'll just speak on PPH accounts in general like 10, 20, 50, 150k PPH account limits In the modern era. For me, like I'm staying away from that type of credit in the PPH world right now because of when you combine it with the stiff risk and just the over, like the calculated risk that you're taking on, I just don't know if that calculation makes sense anymore, and so it's one of those things that obviously, the way Tom dealt with it, nobody wants to get laid down on. But in that scenario it's tough because you want the guy. Yeah, you're like everyone would love to be. Like yes, like hey, I gave you this account, the guy stiffed us, it's on me, like I'll take it. 

52:12 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I don't know if that's the norm in the industry these days yeah, it's getting tougher and tougher, uh, each day, as we talked about earlier on in the show, um, getting in tougher and tougher and tougher to win as well. When you talk about your past roi versus your future roi, which is the next segment here, clark coming in here, future betting ROI is probably less correlated with past betting ROI than we think which is music to my ears, because my past betting ROI is in the negative that hey, there's a chance that we can get some variance the other way and swing in the right direction. Mike, you want to lead this one. 

52:47 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
It depends kind of on the timeframe that you're looking at. Maybe ROI from five years ago isn't necessarily predictive of what ROI is now, especially kind of as markets are changing with legalization. But in terms of just whether you know, whatever predictors you can have for if someone is going to be a good better, not you know, smart is able to model, knows a score, et cetera. All that to me, smart is able to model, knows a sport, et cetera. All of that to me fails in comparison to did they win or have they won in something before. So like, if you give me a winning CBB, better I'll take him any day in a football market over someone who is close to winning but isn't really winning in football. 

53:25
And I think once you kind of get into the green or into the black, it's a lot easier to understand what you're looking for and things like that. I never understand the books that limit by sport. To me, if you're a winner in one sport, you're going to be a winner in another and basically it's kind of, you know it sounds simple, it's not this easy, but you know, you either know how to win or you don't. And once you kind of learn how to win, I think that's the biggest step towards, you know, having success long term. 

53:52 - Jason Cooper (Host)
So you're telling me I'm cooked, all right, sounds good. Flop, any, any, any thoughts here? 

53:56 - Flup (Host)
Honestly, mike kind of hit the nail on the head here. Nothing really more to add. He's pretty spot on. He posted a poll too and I'm happy to see the majority got it right. That was, I believe, the CBB better had like a five percent roi was more likely to win on nfl. That's absolutely the correct answer nailed it all right. 

54:17 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Uh, let's get to the next one then everyone's favorite twitter handicapper. This one's coming from, uh, adrian badgerowski, who was featured earlier on the show. Uh, and this one has to do with a uh, steve fezik seminar which, uh, I looked through it apparently dinner is not included. So adrian here is saying what would old 2000s fezik say if someone was down 37 units on the year and is running a betting seminar seminar for two thousand dollars 1495, with a discount? He is full blown. Exactly what he bitched about was wrong with selling picks back in the day. And he includes a screenshot where this, where it talks about the how the three day immersive bootcamp kicks off on Friday, looks like the week before bet bash and, yeah, optional Q and a tons of different things here. 

55:04
I guess there is a. There's a brunch, not a dinner, but yeah, I mean Fezzik running a seminar. He's down 37 units. I will say, to his credit, he was down 50 units halfway through the year, so he's, he's gone on a little bit of. We'll call it a heater in the short term. Um, chris, do you want to lead or fluff? Do you want to leave with this one here? 

55:21 - Flup (Host)
Well, yeah, as the only contest winner here, I feel like I'm most qualified to speak on topic. I think really age-old phrase here is true those who can do and those who can't. Can we edit? 

55:37 - Jason Cooper (Host)
that. No, we can't. I literally refused to edit this part out. 

55:42 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Those who can't speak stutter. 

55:44 - Joey Knish (Host)
And those who can speak. Clear your teeth, Fuck. 

55:52 - Jason Cooper (Host)
That was great that was great. You literally can't cut it now, so I'll filibuster here for a second. Control yourself. Get some breathing exercises in. Maybe do a quick google search on what the actual phrase no, I got it, I got it. I got it now. 

56:05 - Flup (Host)
All right, the floor is yours the phrase is those who can't teach and those who can do. I think is very, very accurate here and it's like physics spot on, like he's clearly so washed at this point. I mean, he clearly won and clearly was a sharp guy. That won at some point, as Mike always likes to tweet about One at some point, as Mike always likes to tweet about but in my opinion he's well past his prime and probably not winning long-term for his clients. Maybe he is, but it's not worth paying for his information at this point. It probably was 20 years ago, not true anymore? 

56:46 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, kanish, I've gone at FedZik a couple times here on this channel, uh itself. There's been plenty of instances over the past couple years where he uh is in other. He calls himself I'm not that this isn't exposing him at all, but uh, he obviously has his own plays that he gives up. But he also aggregates other people, people's plays, which I think if you're paying for that, that's a little uh, disingenuous to your customers, even if they're aware of it or not. I just don't think that's really fair to them or the people who you swipe plays from, whether they agree to it or not. 

57:15 - Joey Knish (Host)
Anyways, he does love to release a play after you know I hit the book show, or after a hit man you know, released 10 minutes later, allegedly. I will say I need, like I need our investigative reporter who's a, coincidentally you in on how this whole like betting boot camp the guy hasn't tweeted about it. It came me. I don't know how we get the advertising get out there. I need to see like who's there. This is one of those like who showed up. 

57:44
How did they get people to pay for this? Does this really exist? This is the most like under the rate. I thought it was fake. I thought when I first saw them, like no, this is like, this can't be legit. But I need to show like how many people did they have show up? How did they get the message out there? Uh, we gotta, we gotta dig in here. I'm hoping for some like you know somebody you can be like in the back of this betting boot camp with like a hat on, like filming, like how many people are in there? Um, because I don't know who the fuck he's paying to attend this. 

58:12 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, it feels like lately Fez has kind of been a caricature of himself, where he's, you know, going on these rants about Starbucks or he's, it's he. I first I thought it was some kind of engagement bait, but this one he managed to slide under the radar. I want to see, I want to know how many attendants are there and I want to see, I want to know how many attendants are there and I want to know kind of what the discussion is as they're going through these things. Uh, I, I do think that back in the day he obviously uh was pretty successful. He has six contest wins. It's six times the amount that club has, or maybe he has 10. Now, I'm sorry, you know, I don't want to get slandered I depending on if we count jimmy's in his basement that he had with his three friends from high school. 

58:49 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, the college basketball office pool one he just won with like six people Like oh, add it to the wall here. Give me the flag. 

58:57 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
But I do think that this is, you know, the perfect definition of. You know, the game's changed here and it's not what it was before, and Matt Brown is no longer a good college football coach and Steve Fezzik can't win a gambling. I shouldn't say that, I see. I think that he is trying to find ways of uh supplementing his gambling, perhaps winnings or losses. Uh, you know, we just got a letter recently that told us be careful what we say here. So I'll be careful on it Um and say that we'll just you know. 

59:30
You look for other revenue streams depending on how your betting is doing. 

59:34 - Flup (Host)
On that note, I want to say it. What I said earlier it was in my opinion. I'm pretty sure that physics is not winning for his clients long-term right now, but we can never know for certain. 

59:45 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah and uh, I believe flop, even though I gave you a hot minute there to collect yourself. The saying is if you can, you do, and if you can't, you teach. 

59:54 - Flup (Host)
So hey, there it is. 

59:55 - Jason Cooper (Host)
You butchered it twice, but I think we all know what's going on there allegedly. 

01:00:00 - Joey Knish (Host)
It's those who can do, those who can't teach. Well, I fucked it up too. Wow, there we go, there we go. Look at that. 

01:00:11 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Who would have thought uncle k knows, uh, knows, a thing or two about sayings. Um, speaking of uncle k, you want? You specifically suggested this next segment. You're looking to papow return fire here? Uh, last week on the show, I believe uh rob was talking about in a discussion with caitlin clark, probably mentioning that if Tiger Woods didn't exist I think it was Phil Mickelson would be Tiger Woods. You have a response to that. First of all? 

01:00:39 - Joey Knish (Host)
yes, I do. Second of all, that has got to be. There's been some bad takes on this show and you know Flops owned a few Joey K hot dogs. But what the fuck is he talking about? That Phil Mickelson would have been Tiger Woods if there was no Tiger Woods. And second of all, feinberg, who's sitting right there, mr Golf, the Hammers golf guy, just lets him get away with it. 

01:01:05
It's not just like the difference in level of player between tiger and phil, it's phil is like your every other golfer in the history of the, fucking like pga, like a kind of overweight guy, white guy, country club guy, likes to golf, pretty good at it. Tiger woods was like a social icon that transcended the world in terms of like the way he approached the game, his work ethic, his like, like his aura, the whole like tiger aspect of like holy fuck. It's like he meant so much more to the game than just being great at golf, which he was so much, significantly better at than phil. And I know Rob in the chat is trying to tell me oh, phil would have had how many more majors without Tiger. Give him two more majors, give him three more majors, doesn't fucking matter. Nobody would talk about Phil Mickelson in this era like they would be Tiger Woods. It's not even the same planet. The guy was like the most popular athlete in the world. Forget that shit. Ridiculous comparison. 

01:02:08 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I gotta say even his scandal is more boring than tiger scandal. One guy's been sleeping with everybody on the planet perkins waitress the other guys you know has a stock thing like that's the most boring scandal of all time. 

01:02:21 - Flup (Host)
So in every way you gotta admit that like tiger is at minimum more interesting than phil well, I feel like I got to push back a little bit here, kanish, because it sounds like you're saying the tiger was mostly good because combination of like him being not like the average golfer and him being dominant in my opinion from an outside view I'm not a golf expert or anything, any mean it looks like he was so popular and dominant because almost 99% of the reason was he was so dominant. I mean he won like that one major by like 15 strokes. He won 15 majors to Phil Mixon, six like you're to your point. Even if you gave him like four majors, he's still, you know, five less than Tiger. So, like to me, I don't know if it mattered, like if Tiger was actually just also a fat white guy but still dominated at the level I feel like he would still be pretty damn popular because people like what, like to watch greatness and watching Tiger was watching greatness, and if he didn't exist, phil's just a good golfer. He's not Tiger-level great. 

01:03:29 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, and it wasn't just great, it was we're watching the best of all time, like right now, like something like when you watch Michael Jordan, lebron James, I'm watching the best to ever do it, potentially right now, like that's what you're getting. You were never getting that with Phil Mickelson. Even if Tiger doesn't exist, he might have had a ton of career accolades, some additional career accolades, but you were never like I'm watching the best golfer, the best athlete in the history of the sport right now to do it. You were getting that with Tiger Woods. At no point were you ever getting that with Phil Mickelson. 

01:04:05 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
This is how I feel with Fzen and man of the big. You know fozen is a good loser, don't get me wrong. But we're watching greatness there. We're watching one of the greatest of all time all right. 

01:04:17 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Well, I can't wait to hear the return fire on, the return fire on the tuesday show, which you can catch here on this channel with rob, with jeff, with kirk. I'm sure they're going to be going in on you for that. Take Kanish. That leads us to the chopping block to round out the show, matt Zilbert's favorite segment here on the show and the first tweet we have on the chopping block from maybe the worst follow on NFL Twitter. I hate this guy, but you know what he tweeted it, so we have to bring him up. I tried to find a different tweet. It was suggested this week. Anyways, breaking. 

01:04:50
Espn reported nearing a deal to acquire the iconic show NFL Red Zone and the NFL Network. The deal is rumored to be worth over $2 billion. Via the New York Times. Firstly, I want to get into this breaking. You stole this from a New York Times article. It's not that breaking. I hate the way this guy tweets and I'm curious to hear your guys' thoughts on red zone in general, because I'm listen, I love the NFL, but I'm a multi-TV guy. I have three screens in front of me. The screen in the middle is quad box. I can watch every single game at the 1 o'clock slate with ease. I don't know who wants to lead this one off here, but flop. I know you're an nfl guy. Are you big on the red zone? Do you like to follow that way? Are you a multi-tv guy, catching every game at? 

01:05:31 - Flup (Host)
once I love the red zone. I have red zone up and then I have my jets up on the other screen and then about 15 minutes later, when they're down by two scores, I'm just focusing back on red zone. So it was. It was interesting to see that they they were going to buy it. I think it's a good purchase by ESPN. It's a great product. 

01:05:46 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, it's because there's some more came out today that, like the NFL and talks to like take a 10% stake of ESPN. So I think there's kind of some more, probably some more layers to this as it comes out of, like how this is going to be structured, cause when I first saw it I was like that that seems weird, that, like the NFL would sell off this product, but if they're getting a piece of like the overall network, then maybe and you know what this sounds weird, like it feels Red Zone, feels like an ESPN type of product, like I could see that being on ESPN, just in general, and I'm a Red Zone guy anyway. So, yeah, I think if it went to ESPN, I think you'd be fine, yeah. 

01:06:33 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I was told Jason is an investigative reporter on the team. He says he can't find another tweet. The guy references the New York Times. Just click on there. They clearly are going to have another tweet of that. 

01:06:43 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I know it's just it takes a lot of time for me to do, and you know what it's. I got to give Jacob a ton of credit. It's a lot of it's a lot of time for me to do, and you know what. I got to give Jacob a ton of credit. It's a lot of effort putting together this show on the Thursday. I'm doing double duty right now. 

01:06:53 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Journalism dies in darkness okay. 

01:06:56 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right. Well, let's get to the next one. Let's talk about your favorite horny cappers. Favorite handicapper, taylor Mathis is back. She posted a video talking about, uh, the 101s of blackjack classes in session for blackjack 101, says taylor mathis, dk dfs quote tweeting it I want to uh on a live after watching this. Uh, I mean I've I've said my piece about taylor mathis. I feel like I said all I can say at this point. I don't know who wants to talk about this. Joey, I guess I'll throw to you as being the resident ball-knower of this channel. 

01:07:37 - Joey Knish (Host)
I will. I found it interesting that Amanda Vance stole T-Math's block today. Amanda Vance, going with DK T-Math, is struggling. Listen, today amanda vance going with dk t-math uh, he's trying. I listen, do? I find I know that she has a uh big following little. I don't know if I even want you can cut this, if it a little right before she was having a baby and right after she's doing this little. Uh, just to me, we'll call it that. That's joey k's opinion. That's a little. It's been a little bit, a little bit odd. But yeah, the whole like we're teaching blackjack now seems a little like like how, when those crack streamers were like doing like the crack slot streamers were doing it, you know that they brought up like, oh, come and look how much you can win. So, yeah, I don't maybe that I'm being naive I don't love people promoting casino games uh, in the manner that. It's that like that. We'll say so for what? 

01:08:38 - Jason Cooper (Host)
for what it's worth. I got a little bit of flack for calling out for her calling her out, I believe back in march for doing a little bit of a uh, what was it? It was, uh, some form of a giveaway or something, and I found out the guy didn't get the money, so I just tweeted hey person hasn't received the money that was. 

01:08:53 - Joey Knish (Host)
That was jason premium jason investigative reporting wait, wait. 

01:08:57 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I do want to say that that is. I believe this is the same company that she was working with, so maybe they had this, something like this, in the pipeline for a while, but then a baby came a knocking and decided to derail these plans for a little bit, after she lost that DK spot or after she whatever happened with the DK sponsorship. 

01:09:11 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
But yeah, this is probably in the books for a while. Who's going up for Fezzik as a better or Jason as an investigative reporter? That's what we need to have as our next market up here on Kelsey, but is this not like the perfect kind of spot for her? I mean, blackjack 101 is pretty basic. A lot of people don't know it. You could teach it on a video and it's not like giving picks that are guaranteed to lose. I think this probably slots in actually nicely. If I'm going to have someone teach me Blackjack 101, that's a fine person to teach, I think, and I really don't know the basics about Blackjack, honest to God. So I think this is probably a good place to slot in. 

01:09:49 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, and Joey couldn't tell you the context of the, the contents of the video, because I know he watched it like 10 times but he forgot to turn the volume on. 

01:09:54 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, I didn't see anything about Blackjack. I spent a half hour watching. I still don't know anything. So yeah, I'm not sure what that was about. 

01:10:00 - Jason Cooper (Host)
So weird, six hours long and there's no sound to it, to it at all. Anyways, let's get to the last topic of the day. On the chopping block it's coming from Sports Betting Education, which is kind of an ironic name. When you look into this tweet a little bit more, he says I've never seen a sports book move a payout from 80 to 1 to 40 to 1 so fast. I'm just a degenerate. No need to move that line. Like the line. Like that DraftKings. I don't know what I'm doing. I swear the line. Like that draft kings. I don't know what I'm doing. I swear hashtag circle back. 

01:10:29
I know he did this because he wants publicity from this show, but maybe we can talk a little bit about how. It's not that really big of a move. He placed three separate bets on a very unique market it's a ufc market to be the champion on the 31st of december 20. Is that 2026, 2026? So I mean tying up thousands of dollars this much in advance, not for me, but whatever, teach their own. 

01:10:50
He placed three separate bets. Uh, one for a thousand dollars at plus 800, or plus 800 to one, one at 1500, at 700 to one was at 70 to one. I'm blind, sorry, I can't see this. Uh, it's 70 to one. Sorry about that. And then the last one was a money line bet on I guess I don't have never even heard of this guy, rainer DeRitter, to win his bet. It seems like this guy's a big Rainer DeRitter fan. If I'm pronouncing that correctly, I mean 80 to one to 40 to one is only like a one-ish percent move. It's not that crazy of a move. I feel like you guys are probably better suited to weigh in on this than I am. 

01:11:33 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
But yeah, sports betting education you feel like you guys need to educate him here. Well, I think that go ahead. Uh, yes, uh, I think these like random markets, like this you got 180k to win and you're acting like them, moving it like that's an insane number. If you were betting at any place in the most liquid market like I guess not the most liquid market, but a lot of markets are going to move if you put 180k down to win, so yeah, I'm the most random market that dk basically only has up the fact that they even were allowing you to get this down uh, there you go that, uh, you know, either there's been some account manipulation here and the guy actually knows what he's doing, or my or my more accurate guess is that they have no idea what's going on and are surprised that lines move when you bet amounts on them. 

01:12:16
You know, and whatever DraftKings has, draftkings isn't moving on a ton of action, but even 100K I mean even the most wrecked person's 100K, 180k risk. You're going to move on. Yeah, you could going to move on. 

01:12:28 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, you could be the biggest fucking idiot on earth and you're talking about, like a knee. How much action do you think DK is taking on this market? It's like the champion, the UFC champion, a year and a half from now, like, oh, this guy just bet to win 200K on it and we moved. We didn't even move. It sounded like they went to like know three to one or something like, oh, can't believe they moved so fast. Uh, so also, yes, as uh pb alluded to, if this is your personal account and this certain book was letting you bet those amount and rebut and bet those amounts, uh, yeah, there's uh that you're kind of telling on yourself in another way there. 

01:13:08 - Flup (Host)
Flop any thoughts? I think Mike and Kanisha handle this pretty well. I mean Kanisha's talking about himself in third person. You know, biggest fucking idiot in the world. But you know, if you are he's right though. Like if you are betting, it doesn't matter how sharp you are. They can't afford to have that kind of position on that random of a market. You, if I'm a trader, I'm sure mike could think of the same way. I don't care what the account looks like, I'm going to move off of that because that that concerns me. Maybe they start telling their friends, even if it is a square bet, I just don't want to lose, like potentially hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars on a random market that I don't even know that well. 

01:13:48 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, I had. When I traded one time there was a real rec guy. He was betting into a market and you know when you're first trading you're like I'm not moving off this action. 

01:13:57
You know I'll take whatever liability. I feel good about the number and then my boss goes. You know $300,000, still $300,000. Whatever you think and you can think, this account's wrecked, but at some level, when you get a lot of money on a side, they're gonna move it. Um, you know they're. You can never be a hundred percent confident, uh, that the action coming in is not sharp and you're gonna move it based on that, no matter what, uh, regardless of liabilities and everything like that, you just you never know if an account is actually wrecked and if you bet an nfl futures pool or an NBA championship or something, the weighting will balance itself out with the risk. 

01:14:34 - Joey Knish (Host)
This type of bet who knows how long you could even really keep it up. I mean you might be able to keep it up through the duration of 25 or something into 26,. But how much action are you going to fucking take on this? You probably took like that. I mean they're probably in the hole for 200K For that. You might take a couple dimes of other action on some other, like the favorites or anything. But yeah, this is one that you would have to be either incompetent or really risk tolerant to just like keep that at 80 after taking a couple massive bets. 

01:15:06 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, that makes perfect sense here and I think you guys also hit the nail on the head talking about being able to get that much down. Uh says a lot about the person betting. You can make your own conclusions. I just want to say that just because we reference people on this show, that doesn't mean it's a voucher. That doesn't mean we uh support them or agree with them in any way. 

01:15:23
It's not a hard vouch at all, because I've seen spe c Cody interact with us a couple times on Twitter and I've gone through his profile. I've gone through some of the things that he does. I believe he sells pics. So I wonder if he maybe was just tweeting this to try and get on this show to maybe I don't know get some more eyeballs on his account. And hey, maybe if you want to do that, head over to the Elf Show, not here, but anyways, we gave him the free publicity regardless and that will wrap up the show for us here today. This is it from circled back. Thank you so much for tuning in. Please make sure you hit that like button. If you enjoyed the show, make sure you're subscribed to see more content as well. Like this we are back on tuesday with jeff, with kirk, with rob and myself. We hope to see you there.