Pittsburgh’s Acrisure Stadium - Source: Unsplash
NFL 2025: Three Outsiders Who Could Still Reach the Playoffs
As we head deeper into November, every NFL game has playoff implications. The front-runners are cruising—perhaps even plotting their postseason rotations already—but a different, more desperate drama is unfolding in the shadows.
In the AFC, the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots (all 8-2) have built fortresses atop their divisions. But beneath that gleaming surface is turmoil: five franchises clustered between 7-3 and 4-5 claw for wild-card scraps, with heavyweights such as Kansas City, Buffalo, and Baltimore all within that mix, lurking with intent.
Turn to the NFC, and the tension only tightens. The reigning champion Eagles and upstart Seahawks (7-2 each) are locked in a heavyweight slugfest for top seed status. The North might be the league’s most fascinating battle, with the Bears, Lions, and Packers all harboring genuine hopes of winning the division. Out West, there is a similar slugfest underway, with the aforementioned Seattle, Rams, and an injury-hit Niners squad all separated by just one win.
But while those sides look like locks to punch their tickets to the postseason, three other teams remain on the periphery, scratching and clawing but somehow remaining in contention... just.
Houston Texans
Forget reputation—let’s talk about reality. Just a month ago, Houston looked cut adrift, a footnote in an AFC South ruled by the ruthless Colts. Yet momentum, once harnessed, can alter even the most stubborn narrative.
In Week 9, Houston eviscerated the Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore 44-10, posting their most lopsided win in years. Then came the divisional epic—down 20 points to Jacksonville deep in the fourth, most franchises would fold. Not Houston. Quarterback C.J. Stroud led a clinical assault, completing 73% of his attempts across the comeback, throwing for 326 yards and three touchdowns, while the defense, maligned early in the campaign, forced two critical turnovers in the final eight minutes to secure the win and perhaps the turning point of the entire campaign.
Still, this is no fairy tale, and online betting sites remain pessimistic. The latest sports betting odds peg the Texans as a +320 outsider to reach the postseason, and it looks increasingly likely that they will have to battle it out for a wildcard slot as the Colts continue to soar. Houston still owns a middling .444 win percentage, but context is essential.
All of their five losses have come by fewer than one score. Most striking, however, is the favorable nature of their remaining schedule. Both the Cardinals and the Raiders must visit NRG Stadium, while a trip to Tennessee should surely yield a win. Add to that an out-of-sorts Bills side making the trip to the Lone Star State, and the Texans are certainly not finished just yet.
Chicago Bears
In the Windy City, stability is a myth, chaos a weekly visitor. The Bears are among the NFL’s most fascinating studies: part offensive juggernaut, part high-wire act, part reclamation project.
Let’s start with explosive Caleb Williams, who has shone in his sophomore year. Since the 52-21 embarrassment against Detroit in week two, last year's number one overall pick has staged a passing clinic over his last four games: 1,100+ yards, 12 total touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a remarkable seven drives of 75+ yards. He isn’t just the engine; he’s the accelerant. The receivers have blossomed with him—the Bears are top-5 in explosive plays (20+ yards) since Week 6.
But oh, the defense. Capable of big moments—see the late-game heroics against the Bengals (a 47-42 shootout)—they habitually surrender chunky gains and are bottom-six in missed tackles. No lead feels safe, for better or worse.
Why do oddsmakers still doubt them (+135 to reach the postseason)? Because the journey ahead is treacherous. Six of the next eight are against legit playoff contenders, with the Packers (twice), Vikings, and reigning NFC champion Eagles awaiting. And yet, if Williams continues to mature—and if the defense corrects even a portion of its errors—Chicago could hit double-digit wins for the first time in a half-decade.
In short, the Bears are mercurial but mighty. On any given Sunday, they can torch a contender or collapse in a heap. If you’re seeking a postseason wildcard with the ability to break the bracket, look no further.
Pittsburgh Steelers
At first glance, the Steelers’ 5-4 record screams ordinary. Dig deeper, and the picture sharpens. This is a franchise both shaped and shielded by adversity—a Mike Tomlin hallmark.
The Steel City side ranks in the middle third in yards gained, but in the top five in turnover differential (+7). Their run defense, gashed early, has stiffened; over their last three wins, they’ve allowed just 3.5 yards per carry. Most impressive, though, is their fourth-quarter steel: the Steelers have trailed at halftime in six games this season—and emerged victorious in four. That’s not luck, but cold-blooded poise.
Tomlin’s approach favors ugly, attritional football, and it may be a winning formula with the vultures circling. Offensively, the line remains a concern—Pittsburgh has allowed 22 sacks, fourth-most in the AFC—but the ability to grind out short-yardage and control tempo late has covered flaws. Expect more of the same across their favorable finishing slate: two games against a Browns team in freefall, a porous Bengals side at home, plus a Dolphins squad also in disarray.
According to the bookies, Pittsburgh is still a +170 outsider to reach the postseason, despite their winning record and the fact that they currently top the AFC North. Considering their playoff pedigree and the fact that they have never had a losing season under Tomlin, those odds certainly seem generous.
