00:00 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions. 

00:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to Circle Back, episode number 12. It's the show where we review the week that was in gambling Twitter. This is our final episode of 2024. Happy holidays to everyone out there. Hope you enjoy it. 

01:00
Rob Pizzola, kirk Evans, jeff Feinberg, jacob the Giant Grimania how are things, boys, doing? Well, jeff, keep on keeping on, keep on, keeping on. We had an interesting show last week, I thought. Listened back to it afterwards Met with a little bit of criticism off the top. We'll start with Uncle K, joey Knish here, who is part of the Hammer Betting Network here, co-host of Hit the Books. 

01:26
Pizzola, not opening up the masterclass segment to the roundtable. Kirk, unwilling to discuss the Toons beef. Kirk has been beefing online with Joey Toons. Jeff Feinberg, second guessing using children as collateral in a fantasy football league, has circled back. Gone soft, I think. Just before we get into the topics a little bit more, I kind of just want to revisit the purpose of the show, so to speak. It's kind of mixing like lifestyle with educational, in a sense. I think there are people out there who watch us on a weekly basis who are hoping that, instead of this being the view for sports, which is kind of the vision that this turns into like jerry springer or maury povich or something like that, where there's like some bunch of crazy beefs going on. We got to separate each other in the studio and I understand the appetite for that, don't get me wrong but it's not really what it's for. And in the case of your beef with tunes, like we talked about it before, there's like not even a topic. What are we going to talk? 

02:24 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
about. Yeah, and also I'll say this toon sent me some dms and look, I don't think toons is going to come and do anything to me, but like, once you take it there with what he sent me to me, like twitter beefs are fun, but like, if you're dming me crazy stuff, I'll stop talking about it. 

02:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So that's what I'll say. So you did this out of fear. Basically, you don't want to talk about it out of fear, cause I messaged you last week. I'm like I don't think I'm going to put in the rundown Cause we can't talk about this for 10 minutes. 

02:51 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, I guess you could say I'm a pussy and it's out of fear Like I'm soft. So we have gone soft basically I've gone soft Like again. If you're going to DM me crazy things, if I go at you on Twitter and you want me to stop talking about you, DM me crazy things, I'll stop talking about you. It's not worth it for me. 

03:10 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean, there are times when it does turn into like a bit of a mini roast. Yeah, I know, and that like catches the appetite and I guess people really like it. But I would say I feel like those things happen. I don't even want to say naturally, because we could dictate and like force things into the lineup, but yeah, it's this like. Are we jerry springer? Are we like the view where we're just gonna like talk about things and give our opinions? I kind of wish we were more like the View and there was a table here so my gun wouldn't be out there in all of our shows. But it is what it is. But I get it Like. Knish just wants that pot stirring, never stopping. He sees these people yapping about it. Even, like you said, if the beef is about nothing, kanish wants it talked about. 

04:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, there are times where things will turn into a roast, like organically, I would say, because we're picking content for the week which is based off of stuff that did views in gambling, twitter, stuff that was talked about, stuff that was a bunch of people have seen, and sometimes it does turn to the individual content creator. I'm not going to say like we're never going to go after people, we're not going to argue amongst ourselves or whatever, but I think it's kind of disingenuous. It's not really in the best interest of the show to just turn it about. Oh, these are all the beefs that are happening. Let's talk about that on a weekly basis. 

04:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I that are happening let's talk about that on a weekly basis. I don't know how you guys feel about that. That was never really the vision on my end. I agree, I agree with that, and I don't know. I spoke to rob last week like I gave you, I gave you my opinion about last week, like I thought you gave, like people like too much oxygen to a bunch of sheep as it pertained to master class. Yeah, you're like the lion, you're the wolf in this thing, you're just a nice guy. 

05:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you wanted to let the sheep know that you heard them, but it was the biggest, I would say, topic of gambling Twitter last week, so it would be disingenuous not to include that just because it directly affects me. Like, yeah, I don't want to be giving a a sitting solo in studio for 10 minutes explaining myself as to why I did a master class, like I don't shouldn't have to do that, but it's kind of the the culture that we've created with this show where I felt the need to and, by the way, like pizzola, not opening up the master class segment to the round table I I just wanted to give my own personal thoughts and not have you guys sit here idly for 15 minutes. 

05:49 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
You did open it up? Yeah, you did open it up. I didn't really understand that part of this. 

05:53 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
We talked about it. 

05:54 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
You started without it, but you did. You started alone, but then we talked about it. 

06:06 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Well, I think, kanish, really what it comes down to is he wanted to be sitting where you are right now roasting me for doing a master class, right? I don't know, he should have, uh, sent me over a couple of his workshop jokes. Yeah, I think, I don't know. 

06:11 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I I don't know I mean. 

06:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For me what's more embarrassing? Doing a sports betting master class or sending out plays on an nfl sunday morning, pretending like you have some sort of edge in the nfl to promote another sports book? I don't know what's more embarrassing. The people can decide out there. But we haven't gone soft. We just, I guess maybe started soft and like have continued. 

06:34 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Have continued yeah. 

06:35 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Well, maybe we started. There were some things just like, or there were some like heavy things immediately started this right at the gate of this show, which kind of turned it into like a bit of uh. It quickly went into like a bit of a roast. Yeah, direction yeah, just because of how some of those when the show started, you know some of the bigger stories that dropped, but I don't know when people deserve to be roast, I think we'll roast them 100. 

07:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We have done that a million times already. It's not like we haven't done that. I really just think that that tweet comes from a place where Kanish really wanted to be on last week's episode because he had a lot of thoughts and he wasn't and he didn't get satisfied by the lack of beefs that were discussed. 

07:19 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He was not, you said it. He wanted to be in Kirk's seat and he had a lot to say. He had a lot. He workshopped a lot of jokes about you and Masterclass, I know, and they just like died on the floor. Yep. 

07:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tough break. Anyways, sorry, pal, yeah, sorry, uncle K, at some point or another we'll have him in studio here. We're not doing over the, that's another thing too. You here, we're not doing over the, that's another thing too. 

07:45 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm not downgrading the quality of the production by having someone on screen. It's just not well. I honestly think it wouldn't be the worst content or maybe I'm a psychopath if we just let knish like berate, berate you about masterclass for like five minutes or not even like 120 seconds. There's a timer. Yell at me when it ends, you're muted. It's enough. You show up on a, hit the books and just let them yell at you. 

08:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It wouldn't be the worst content, but it would be pretty bad. It would be pretty bad? 

08:13 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I don't know. I don't hate the idea. 

08:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what I could really see two years from now, me and Kanish being real rivals. Like it's just a joke thing right now I could see it evolving into into a true rivalry at some point. 

08:28
I could see it happening. All right, um sharp hunter was getting promoted on gambling twitter this week. I saw it from ben fox. Ben fox used to be um with espn. If you haven't heard of sharp hunter, I recommend checking it out. So he's giving his endorsement. Easy to digest site that identifies betting opportunities using historical data and real-time trends of where sharp bettors are wagering. Free trial available here, naturally. Anytime a new tool comes up in the sports gambling Twitter sphere, it is met with a lot of criticism very harshly. I think the skepticism in a lot of cases can be warranted. I went through it myself with the masterclass side of things. I get how all of this works. I'm curious, jeff, just on your you're more of on the rec betting side of things right. Do tools like this interest you as a rec better when you see, like where bet percentages are a sharp score with money bags and stuff like that, do you find that interesting? 

09:30 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
not really, um, not at all, but I would say, I am, I am in this like area, I am very unique and in many ways yes but in the sense that, like, yes, I am a rec better, yes, I consider myself a sophisticated square Because I know when I'm making a square bet, Like I know that this is. But, that being said, I am also lucky enough to have access to a lot of like really smart, betters, really smart bettors. So, like I have tools that like other better, like rec bettors don't have, yeah, which can keep me away from like the dumbest or overexposing myself in like the worst ways. So that's why I'm a almost like like awkwardly, like a unicorn, because I don't know that there are many, like I'm a very small subset of people that can just like, um, dm, a bunch of sharp bettors yeah, you're, you're. 

10:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're basically your friends. Can't go to the forward progress group chat on telegram before a primetime football game and say hey, who does everyone like for first touchdown score tonight? 

10:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
that doesn't or something earlier in the day before the the props get like handed when when the streeters post fresh props like anything in there, hot and fresh like. So that's why I, I, I don't. I feel like it's unfair for me to comment, wouldn't help me. I think most rec bettors just like to bet what they want to bet. Yeah, and I think ben needed to like put hashtag ad into this tweet. 

11:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, just for some context, for people who don't know Ben, but Ben has come under fire, I would say on the sharp side of gambling Twitter before, because previously he would post a lot of bet splits type of stuff. I think he still does, right? Yeah, I think so. 90% of the bets are on this team at this sportsbook. I talked to this sports book director. You know this is what the breakdown is, stuff like that and generally why do sharps hate that, like I get. 

11:31 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
The public percentages don't matter. You hate it because it could influence a square no, no, no. 

11:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Because, sometimes I'm amused by that information, that's what I was getting at, though, so it does matter to someone like you like you find that interesting, amusing. 

11:45 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm not going to help me make my bet, because I've learned enough that that actually doesn't matter right, it's posting information like it matters, even though it's totally irrelevant. 

11:55 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I think is what pisses the people who kind of know off because ben also he does post a lot of like relevant information. He writes about. I was actually going to say the exact opposite. 

12:10 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, but I mean he writes for a lot of relevant publications. 

12:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes. I guess, his own sub stack. 

12:14 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
now would I've truly never seen him tweet something that I read and thought that is useful information. I think all of it is totally useless. And to get to sharp hunter I've said this before and I think a lot of wrecks honestly do care about this there is no such thing as sharps are on x side yeah if the sharps like a number and it's actually a sharp side the line will move. 

12:40
There's no like oh, all the sharps are taking green bay, so green bay is the play that doesn't exist only for like really unique things like I would say jake paul or floyd. There it's like okay, sharps are just compiling on, but the number is the number. If sharps take minus three, yeah, and it's still minus three, it's not sharp. They probably were just wrong. 

13:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah or like, or reaches the point where it no longer is a valuable position, right? I mean, for anyone who didn't watch the interview with matt metcalf right here on the circles off channel, I would highly recommend that you watch or listen to that in some capacity. Matt used to work as the director sportsbook director at circus sports in las vegas. If you want to understand how lines move, that's the one to do it for you. Now, there's a lot to take into account here. Like Ben Fox, I ran into Ben at Bet Bash last year and we were chatting in the Circus Sportsbook for a little bit and I kind of talked to him about the way that he runs his account and we had a pretty candid conversation and he is running his account in a way that's chasing engagement and eyeballs, right. 

13:43
He's always been part of the media and he wants to put stuff out there that he thinks people are interested in. Not necessarily he's not putting that out from a value point of view, right. The bet splits. It's like people find this interesting, so I have a duty to tweet that I get that. It also still bothers me a little bit, his angle because I believe I do follow him like. 

14:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He wants to write about gambling for legacy media. That's been his career. Like that is right, and now gambling is getting bigger, so some of these stories, right. He sells himself as like a reporter on gambling. 

14:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would say that's fair. 

14:28 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
yes, I'd say that's fair so this has to have an ad on it. 

14:32 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Agreed. 

14:33 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Because I don't know what this is. I just came up with this take. 

14:35 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
But he's kind of you know like what's his name? Dove Klein, Dove Klein. 

14:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, dove, klein, hold on, Don't talk to Jeff about Dove. 

14:42 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Klein. What Dove Klein is of the NFL, ben Falk is of gambling. 

14:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Twitter, I mean Dove once upon a time was good. I loved when he would spoil the draft picks Like way back in the day, but he's long sold that account. 

14:59
Yes, whatever the sold account is, maybe like a season and a half ago, and now it is just like the most repugnant force in football internet. It is. It really is. Yeah, it is just disgusting, but I think it jumped the shark where. I don't think it garners any modicum of respect. It used to, though, because Axton used to be good. Maybe people would disagree with that. I would agree with you on that. 

15:30 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Like when he first started. Yeah, I agree. We used to talk about that account. 

15:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, it was a hidden gem for a little while it was a hidden gem for a while, but then it got huge and then it was able to generate some money and then he obviously sold at the top. 

15:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So good for the original owner, but he left like a overflowing cesspool I did some research into sharp hunter and it's from the uh true media team. True media is a data company that a lot of uh legacy media sites use as well. I read the true media notes every single week. They have some really interesting stuff good researchers, I you know. Plus, ev Analytics says what's your data source to know which bettors are placing bets at which times? How do you identify sharp bettors in this data? I think that this is a fundamental problem amongst the industry. True Media does like really good work in. On the football side of things, there's a difference between knowing ball and then knowing betting absolutely, and I think so many of these products I I actually don't think that they're put out there as like a snake oil. I actually think people believe in what they're building because they don't understand betting and they know ball. 

16:41
Yeah, yeah, exactly, they're like well, this is but that tool in and of itself. 90, like 95% plus maybe that's a rough estimate of the population that bets probably believes that bet splits matter for sure In some capacity. They don't really understand the nuances of why bet splits do not matter. So these types of products will do well in the space, but also, I think the people that are behind them. They actually believe in them as well as well. 

17:10 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, potentially, but I think that's giving them a little bit too much credit. Even if they believe it's good, like if you're selling and you think your is great, it's still on you to know it's, even if you don't know. Oh yeah, I'm not absolving you, I know. 

17:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm just saying I'm saying, yeah, there's so many of these exist like that, that product, if you can go back, jacob, just to the screenshot here for those who are watching on on youtube. This exists on action network already. It has existed for four, five the exact same type of thing. They even throw in like uh, like check marks if it's like pro steam and like, uh, if they're. If they're, they're handicappers internally, like the same side, and stuff like that. 

17:47 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
All of the stuff is nonsense it's crazy that when you say the words action, network, my like I get angry, like I have such a deep hate for them. Oh my god, sorry, irrelevant though, make your point I used to hate them. 

18:02 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't anymore. Anymore, no, I'm just past it, my point being that this might not land well. 

18:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Don't get soft. Don't get soft on us Even though public splits don't matter. 

18:20 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You give me an NFL divisional game that has as much action as any game, more than any game in the season. At that point and if I woke up that morning and was on the same side, the books needed I wouldn't mind that. I wouldn't mind that. That's the dumbest thing. 

18:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For me it doesn't matter. I don't even look at that stuff, right? 

18:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
no, but let me just say, like if I was wait, it's game day now, yeah, and I'm waking up. I don't even have a bet on the game yet. Yeah, but I'm now gonna watch this game and, uh, I'm not gonna bet. It's small, yeah, but I'm not gonna to bet it for 20 grand. 

19:03 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Not 10% of your net worth 500, 1,000. 

19:07 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'd be like I don't know, and you said Benson or Burns is like we need this side bad today. I want to be with you guys. 

19:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know, but they're booking the action All week at different numbers, at different numbers, at different numbers. All week they're getting plus 110 because they're taking the minus 110 bets. You have to bet it at minus 110. 

19:30 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I know, but at the end of the line, when it's like we're about to go, I'd want to be with them. 

19:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And also you don't know where the true liabilities lie. Are they in parlays? 

19:44 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
You don't have the full scope of what the traders are looking at there, but what jeff is saying is why this is going to be popular it's true. It's actually why it will be a good product, like a perfect encapsulation. I don't bet on game day? 

19:57 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
yeah, because, like you know if I, I'm obsessed with the nfl, so I know the injury news. I know what the advance lines are. People don't like to bet early, like you, because you can't get enough down. I'm more than happy with what I can get down early. So I'm not saying I'm not betting game day, but if I woke up on game day and I had yet not made a bet, it's like fuck it. My wife's out with the kids all day. I'm just sitting here watching this game. I'm going to bet it. I get. I like I guess I want to be on the side that the, that the towers need that only get torn down to build new ones. Now I get it. You're telling me my the liabilities are all over the place. 

20:39 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
So that's like uh, even if they weren't, though, it wouldn't it's just such imperfect information, right? 

20:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, of course, right. 

20:47 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean it is imperfect, but I still even like on a floor. I've got a 48% chance and I'm betting recreationally. 

20:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, my whole thing would be that you just handicapping the game without that information is going to perform at the exact same level as you handicapping the game with that information is going to perform at the exact same level as you handicapped that game with that information. 

21:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But if I also hated the team from my like ball, knowing I don't know that I would side with it, but I'm just saying it'd be part of like if I came in. 

21:14 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
It's a little bonus to know that, that's on your team as well. 

21:17 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I will say this and I believe this, but it's not like a well-thought-out take, but it's not like a well thought out take. I think that there are people, or could be, that use this public bet split information For every bet no, not for every bet to get sharp picks, like I'm sure there's a way. What do you mean? To get sharp? 

21:42 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Like. 

21:42 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I think there probably is a way that you can use public bet splits. I don't know, Like I have ways in my head of how I could do that, oh for sure, but it would depend on which sports books are releasing them. 

21:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you had the numbers available, I think this is a good example. 

21:55 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I don't know when you can see bet splits or like, how and this probably is a dumb thing to say but like and this is probably a dumb thing to say, but like DraftKings for the Christmas Day games that come out weeks ago, yeah, if they have bet splits for those games, I guarantee you you could see what line you should be betting, because DraftKings doesn't move because they're not at sharp books yet they take a long time to move. If you saw that 100% of the bets are on LA Golden State under 233, I don't know, can you see the amount bet? 

22:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They show the pro versions of these show the ticket count and then the dollar count. 

22:37 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, like if you could see the dollar amount bet on Warriors Lakers under 233.5, if they showed that you probably could find an edge there. 

22:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I do believe that, but this is what people do, right? This is the whole concept of reverse line movement, but they're already betting into a market that has set the fair price. 

22:56 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
No, I get that, but I'm saying there are unique cases where if a line's been up at a rec shop for a long time, yeah, but hasn't opened up at pin bookmaker bet online, yeah, I don't. I don't see why not. Why there's not? 

23:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
someone who. That's a super rare edge case that's what I'm saying. 

23:11 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Sorry, I'm obviously the like general got. It is yes it's dumb. 

23:16 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Before we leave, I would just like to acknowledge in the way that there could be like a divisional nfl playoff game. You have no opinion on the side, the line is perfect. You are not betting it Right. I'm sure you're filled with props. I am, because I love betting on football and I don't need a plus EV situation to bet aside in a divisional playoff game. Then I believe, like on low end, my like what are my odds? 

23:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're talking about different types of betting. Yes, yes, because you're talking about betting, but you don't even have the expectation to win at that point. You're just betting for the sake of. 

23:59 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, this is four hours. This is four hours of my favorite thing in the world the NFL on a divisional playoff game. 

24:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, but the goals of. 

24:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, I know I'm not making a plus EV bet today. I just want to bet football. Sure, that's my point I do that as well. 

24:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
By the way, all the time, if anyone who watches the live watch-alongs on Forward Progress, I make in-game bets. I do prop bets that I don't necessarily think have great value, but I want something to root for in the game. With that said, there's never going to be a point where I'm going to go and look at what other people are betting to determine what I want to bet on the game. To each their own. I'm not. There's no listen. You do whatever you want to do, jeff I think jacob said it best. 

24:42 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, when I'm already in this situation where I'm just betting I know it's minus EV. It's just like another check in the box. You're looking for a confirmation bias. 

24:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I want to be with the towers. You're like. You know what I like the Broncos in this game. But let me just double check the percentage. Okay, public is on the other team Now I'm clicking when I don't have a clue. 

25:02 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I want to be with the Towers, Got it? That's I guess, and I know I'm negative. 

25:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, EV Fair enough, sign me up with the Towers. Speaking of minus EV GRP wins, he just ran bad. He was playing in the best PLO game in the country in the last four hours. The problem is it was a big game. He ran bad, lost 5K, his worst day ever as a poker player. But he's proud of himself because he played great, which, by the way, people were getting him on calling him out on. That's the least of the problems with this tweet. You can easily play good poker and run bad. It happens all the time. Steve Fezzik responded to him, said if it's such a great PLO game like, why did you you leave? And he said because I have a rule if I ever lose 10 of my net worth in one day, I should stop gambling that day I'm like hurt, how long is this rule? 

25:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
because I have a rule I I love that's so specific I'm a fan of george for, like what it is, it's like an entertainment thing. But this was like going behind the fourth wall of george. It's like I know wrestling's fake. Like I know george isn't in a great spot. Yeah, there's a lot of like signs. I'm smart enough to deduce that like that, like this guy's not leveling up at any point, but to like to hear it put like that it's like, oh, it was just like a gut punch, it's hard to read. 

26:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's uh, it's tough. 

26:33 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I I have a lot, it's like oz coming out from behind the curtain in like underwear and like cheetos grease on his chest, like don't show us this george. 

26:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's tough because george is like he's such an interesting character in the sense of him. 

26:51
He's on the scene to try to like police in a sense, you know, gambling to. He's like tracking, churn off. He's like I'm gonna be this guy that's gonna track adam and and all this stuff. The guy lost. This is not 10 of bankroll. Okay, this is 10 of net worth, not bankroll. He lost 10 of his overall worth as a human in in a poker game. I mean this is like this is problem gambling to the max at this point. And he's like the one charting all this stuff in the notebook. It's important for you to keep track of your bets. I'm on. I mean like this is a real issue. 

27:32 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
This is sad. It's actually sad. That was exactly my point. Like it's objectively hilarious, yes this tweet. Oh, I saw it and I was dying of like it is so funny but also it's objectively sad and george should not gamble, and on top of sports. Or, like he said, I'm proud of myself. 

27:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I played great and I agree that's plausible, but also unlikely well you well, I mean, you should not be playing with five thousand dollars on the table when your net worth is 50k I root for george. 

28:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I root for george me too. 

28:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is hard. You know what the sad thing about all this is. He actually had a big win last week. He cashed I root for George. I root for George. Me too. This is hard. You know what the sad thing about all this is? He actually had a big win last week. He cashed his Travis Hunter Heisman for $7,500. 

28:16 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
He pissed it basically all back at the poker table afterwards. Man this guy. I don't think it's fair. 

28:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
$7,500, that must be the best day of his life. I don't think it's fair for Fezzik to call out George when he's had the weather opportunity of a lifetime and only a 21 in his Circa account. 

28:29 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Well, that's that true. Fezzik's getting to Zilbert territory. We shouldn't even talk about him. He's so goddamn annoying. 

28:36 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's actually a Zilbert. It's a Zilbert GRP Mathis like hyperbreed. 

28:44 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
It's gotten so crazy, it hyperbreed. 

28:45 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's gotten so crazy Hyperbreed it is tough and I'm in the vortex now and I'd love to get off the ride. 

28:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He tags you in all the tweets. 

28:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He made a poll about me. He tagged me in a blue horseshoe. I'm now getting DMs. I got one this morning. I think it was criticizing you, Rob, but I didn't getting DMs. I got one this morning. I think it was criticizing you, Rob, but I didn't really read it. 

29:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
From Fez? Yeah, it definitely was. I think I need to have an offline conversation with him at this point because we've got to hash it out, the first line of this message is I don't know what Rob is doing. 

29:22 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Okay. 

29:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Continue on. 

29:24 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's something about a binomial simply does not a 34-8 binomial. Oh, I know exactly what you're talking about. 

29:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So he's already lost he was watching the show at least. Thank you, he was watching the live watch-along. Somebody asked about. But why would he message me that? Because I'm going to argue back with him at this point. Someone asked Maybe I'm going to argue back with him at this point. Someone asked road favorites in the NFL are 34-8 against the spread this season. And somebody asked me on the live watch-along road favorites 34-8 against the spread. They said what is most likely contributing to this and my response was I think the most likely scenario is just random variance. 

30:07 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Right, but I ran a binomial um probability on it, assuming that every game was a coin flip sure, the bad teams are just worse than ever this year, like there's more bad teams and they're fucking shit no, if you look at market ratings from year to year, similar. 

30:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's there, you. You, I mean, listen, the giants this past week were rated as like a historically bad team. 

30:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Um, we've seen that at times with the panthers this year, so I just mean, like last year, five wins would have gotten you fifth overall pick. 

30:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This year it's gonna get you like 10th or 11th overall yeah, that's I, but like from a pure market rating standpoint, I don't think we're seeing extreme changes from previous years. Anyways, I said it's most likely random. I ran a binomial 34 to 42, assuming a coin flip. It's a real, real high likelihood, that extremely unlikely that that would happen, but it still can happen. 

31:03 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm actually so mad. I did this because now Fezzik will see that I am a good middleman to yell at Rob through, and I don't want to do that again. 

31:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's okay, I don't care, it doesn't bother me. He could message me. Well, I'm in the vortex. 

31:14 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, and I'm like a kid who just went on a ride he didn't want to. 

31:21 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I, yeah, you could block him, I guess. 

31:23 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't want to block him either, though I like Fezzik too much. You're in a tough spot. 

31:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a tough spot to be in. Just ignore him. I don't know what I would do. 

31:32 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I got tagged on a blue horseshoe. I would have had to delete my account if that lost. 

31:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know. 

31:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It didn't, and I was rooting for him. I don't even remember what it was. It was a college money line. 

31:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll say this a million times I would sit down for breakfast, coffee, lunch, have a beer with Fezzik anytime. The online persona drives me insane. It really does. There's certain things that get me in the sport and to a sense, george does a lot of this as well, where it's like this is the way it has to be and to a sense, george does a lot of this as well, where it's like this is the way it has to be and anything that's contrary to this cannot possibly be right. And there's also like some hypocrisy built in. 

32:19
He went on like I try really hard not to just keep including Fezzik tweets in here because we could do this over and over on a weekly basis. But he had another cold weather tweet this week. Right, it came from college football games tweet this week. Right, it came from college football games and it was like, uh, something along the lines of are we undervaluing these, these, uh, warm weather teams that are going to play in these cold weather games? Well, you can't say that. And release like smu first quarter at penn state, when penn state would be this. Like he's releasing that because it's a math play and there's like some sort of derivative there that he's calculated, that has value. But you can't say like weather matters and then go against it. You just it's too hypocritical at that point, right? Can't victory lap the Dolphins in cold weather and then go and play. It's the hypocrisy is too much. 

33:06 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I think in my head for a long time I kind of put Fezzik in this box of like, like oh, he's actually like really smart and like a really good, better, but like does some weird dumb things. But I'm just coming more and more to the realization that he fucking sucks and is the worst and is a scammy. 

33:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I think he is smart and wins a betting I 100 percent like I guess he on fezic undoubtedly is a winning better, you know do you think anyone who uses his service? 

33:28
that's a different question and that if the the interview I did with uh me and johnny did with fezic, uh, it'd be over a year ago now. I was really uncomfortable in that interview because fezic and johnny were arguing a lot. But as I go back and I think about it more and more, right, um, the whole point that johnny was making was exactly this. Right, it's like, yeah, everyone can win at betting. It's. And it sounds like arrogant when we say, but it is actually quite easy to win at betting. But can the service, can people win tailing that service? That was a big question and I'm subscribed to the service now, by the way, and the more and more I see, um, some of the plays that I would question that mightily. Because, like, no, I I mean I can't go bet at the south point. If you release a line that's at south point and draftings, guess what, I'm not getting anything down on it. And then I have a question with ask myself do I take the line? That's 10 cents worth, like? 

34:17 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
there's so many things that I would agree with you from that, and what john Johnny said on the podcast is a hundred percent true. If Fezzik was what he presented himself as and he's been betting for this long he should be riding in the sunset with his millions and millions of dollars, and quite clearly he is not so can I ask this about any service? 

34:39 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Sure, is it possible to win with any one service. If you have like a real job, like let's say you're a doctor or a teacher or any like, if you're not perpetually online, how do you even take advantage of the service place? Or you're just happy to get them and you're kind of a sophisticated square because you're smart enough to kind of lean on someone, but you don't mind losing the half point or point, because how can someone with an actual job that isn't perpetually online able to take advantage of I'm not even saying Steve, anyone- the market is too quick. 

35:21 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
The only way is if you find someone who is sharp, who doesn't exactly know what they have, but they're really small, better, and like they are a winner, but they're not moving the market, so like if they have 20 people who pay for their picks and the market hasn't really realized, ok, this is clearly someone who's sharp, that can happen, but that's like a few months and then it goes, but no, it just doesn't exist. 

35:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Theoretically, I mean. The best tools you can have available to you nowadays are definitely not tout services Like if you want to be a top down better. 

35:56
It's an odd screen that clearly you could win off of using an odd screen at any point of the day whenever you have free time. You'd be able to do that. I think the perfect product would be a real-time model that's constantly updating as news became available, that's showing true numbers on games, but it would also have to have some sort of testing framework that shows that it's, I mean, better than the closing line essentially. And at that point why would somebody publicly be putting that bottle out there so like it just doesn't really exist? 

36:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Like I just pictured, some Amazon delivery driver subscribing to the tout service and like I don't care, they're going to pull over and get the bed in Rush. Or you try like, okay, after this package, I'll get the bed in, or I'll get off the freeway. I'll get the bed in or I'll get off the freeway, I'll get the bed in and it's just gone, yeah and drive. 

36:46
You gotta drive over to the south point to get the bed in and you get double because not only are you betting stuff that's bad, because even if the original bet was good, it's now moved, you're paying for it, and at that point you'd rather just be paying your own, playing your own ball, knowing exactly, just pay the vig yourself. 

37:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, exactly, I think one of the biggest questions I mean for a very long time has been around, you know are is this tout a winning? Better people and for me a lot of them are it's just they cannot translate that via a service to other people because there's so many things that happen, like who is? There are very few people that are going to grade against a true, widely available. Like how right? Yes, hitman does that. I mean, and I support hitman anytime because I think he actually runs his tout service as properly. He's not giving out the best price in market. He's basically only giving out a prop when it's widely available. It. It's available at PPHs, which is another important thing, but you can't release an NFL side before it's even available at a Sharp book or PPH. 

37:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Do you think someone pays for RAS and then they cancel because I'm in a meeting? I can never get the odd. 

38:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What was the point? You think that's happening For sure. I don't think the vast majority of people who actually pay for rass are are care about the number itself but rass is such a like because they move it so hard, so quick, so that's why I use it's so expensive though 

38:16 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
so like I think people paying for that are more knowledgeable than like people paying for whatever the guy's name was last year who did like plop and I'm not knocking Razz. 

38:25 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
That just shows their ability to move it quick. But unless you, like you said you're, you're like dealing stocks or crypto in front of your computer. How do you? 

38:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
even play it. I experienced this when I when I so for one year I ran a company called prediction machine. 

38:42
People don't really know how that came about, but essentially the founder was Paul this year, and he sold the company to some mutual friends of mine and they reached out to me and they're like fuck, like we just bought this and we have our developers like looking through the logic of and nobody understands it. Like we need somebody to run it. I'm like I'm not interested. They're like what's gonna make you interested? I said what's gonna make me interested. I ran it for a year. I learned this firsthand with Bet. People are not price sensitive at all. You know you could put out baseball plays for a day. Yankees minus 120 is your biggest edge. It moves to minus 145. 

39:18
People are still going to bet it no matter what, and I think Because they want to be on your side. 

39:26 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
100 the number does not matter. My loss is going to burn me much more than your loss, of course and the same, with the underdog flipped around right. 

39:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like I. I actually kind of feel this pain when I do shows, where we have we, where we have like a really good night with winners, and people dm me afterwards. This actually happened as I came in today. Some people took some legs that I gave out yesterday as part of an sgp that lost by the hook on cowboys minus two and a half alt line. It lost. But people were messaging me saying like thank you, I won this, I did this, I did this and whatever. But I was looking at the prices that they were playing and I'm gonna have to go when they show you on thursday, when this ticket? 

40:03
is shown and I'm like oh man, I'm like I would not have played it if this is what you were getting paid, and that's the real issue. 

40:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They want to ride with Pizzola. 

40:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They just want to ride. 

40:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Sometimes I want to just ride with Pizzola. I know. 

40:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
People are all like that. My buddy messages me on the side. He's like it's kicking off in five minutes. Dude, I could bet $500,000 in three clicks. 

40:24 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
If I watch it and he doesn't care, he'll lay $0.40 more than you on a prop 100% or a spread or whatever. 

40:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I won on New England Buffalo over $44.50. Anyone who bet that afterwards is the best possible price you could have got in the week when we did forward progress Sunday night last week. 

40:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It all matters, they'll buy the full point. 

40:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now they're laying 30 cents, they'll do all sorts of crazy stuff. They'll do all sorts of crazy stuff. Uh, mr peanut better, who has become one of my favorites in the gambling twitter sphere, says betting under half threes is the worst sweat in sports. Anyone who bets this and isn't a professional, slash, semi-professional bettor is an absolute psycho. I think I agree on all accounts on this. 

41:12 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I guess I am a psycho, because I couldn't disagree more Under half. 

41:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But he's saying anyone who is not a pro or a semi-pro, no, no, no, no, no. 

41:22 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
But take away me betting to win. If I'm betting, like last year, on Sundays, I'll bet for fun, and last year I would bet like my most common bet in my parlays was no touchdown for, like specific players, half bet, because you're winning most of the time and then it's over, like that. So I like the feeling of being in the lead for most of the time and then also if you're sweating under half a three, under half a steal, it's like you get to watch it and for most of the time you're not even really scared of what's happening. Maybe sometimes he catches the ball behind the three-point line and you're a little worried, but I like I much prefer betting under really small numbers than a star player over points. 

42:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Those are different scenarios though, so I bet no touchdown score. A lot of NFL props. I will bet this player to not score a touchdown in the game and that's a sweat, but it's really only a sweat when they have the ball, and more so when they're in the game. And that's a sweat, but it's. It's really only a sweat when they have the ball, and more so when they're in the red zone. Under half threes is a sweat on every possession. When they're coming up the court in game it is. 

42:35 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I would not watch the games if I bet under half three but if a guy's lined at half a three he's probably not hanging out that much behind the three-point line. 

42:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He might not be playing that much on, yeah, but you're going to be fixated on him every time off the court. 

42:46 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Be like get in the post. But you get so many possessions where you're so happy, where it's like oh, another possession, no three, I don't know, man, I understand your take, I just, I personally cannot get there as a human. 

42:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you're in the lead, the whole game. 

43:10 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
You the whole game. You're winning your bet for the entire until you've lost. But that loss is just like imagine it comes in the fourth quarter. Yeah, on a three-pointer. That's sickening. I've had some tough ones for how many, how many threes you think a guy's attempting for a line like this probably like one to two, a game like yeah, like bam out of bio, would get a line like this exactly so you, you have to sweat two plays. 

43:20
Every other possession is amazing I agree it's a horrible sweat because you always have to think about it, but there's not going to be many moments where the guy is actually going to take a shot from three Like maybe like a Jimmy Butler, where he has the ball a lot more and he's on the perimeter a lot more. It's worse, but yeah. 

43:36 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Usually like it dawns on you like a little bit after the fact You're like, oh shit, like when the fullback catches the pass. I, you're like, oh shit, like when the fullback catches the pass. I don't really play these sorts of props, yeah, I do, but it'd be like oh you're watching the game, You're focused on the eight different things and it's like, oh shit, that three Like that just happened killed me. I kind of agree with Kirk, though this is my kind of sweat. 

44:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You like this one. 

44:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, just more in the like. I'm playing from ahead, from go. It's maybe unlikely and I enjoy it's not a sweat I bet but I'm not a professional or semi-professional better. 

44:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Would you bet something like that? Would you bet no? Here's another one that's in a similar vein. I posed this no, I wouldn't on sunday night football um live watch long on forward progress. I posed this question in the chat and Drunken Goon said I bet no booking in soccer games Player not to get a yellow card. 

44:32 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I was going to actually bring that up. That's one of the worst sweats. 

44:35 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
That sounds like so much fun to me. That is fucking brutal. 

44:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
How can you watch that game with a significant amount of money on it? I couldn't personally. That would ruin the enjoyment of that game. 

44:46 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
That'd be fun. And then think about it. 

44:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That'd be good, I think it'd be really fun. 

44:50 - Mikey Overs (Caller)
Yeah, I might start betting on that. You guys want to do a squad ride on no booking, absolutely. 

44:56 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
For the three-point bet. Here you're not going to be typically paying a ton of juice for under-half threes, but you could be you could be, I know you could be. 

45:04 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I bet Zach Eadie under half a three in the title game minus 1,100. And Didn't chew one. I think he shot two, threes all year Past post. I think that's relevant. 

45:16 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
For an NHL player not to score, you're typically paying a lot more juice. Your average not to score in an NHL bet is you're paying a lot more juice. Like your average not to score in an NHL bet is you're paying a lot more juice than what you'd be paying on a under half a three in the NBA. So in this case I don't think you're sweating a ton of money. But for like an under, like no yellow card or the worst would be like no yellow cards. 

45:40
way worse because think about it relatively it can always happen at any time, exactly the player is on the pitch for the entire game. 

45:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're watching that player run around the entire game, at least on basketball. They go to the bench hockey even more so they play less of the game, like when, when I'm betting a hockey player not to score a goal, I'm dodging like 12 minutes of a 60 minute game. 

46:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
15 minutes of a 60 minute game it's a quarter of play. 

46:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A lot of times it's in the defensive zone. They're not even so. It's a little different. You can't compare all of these, but it's still a shit experience. 

46:14 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I don't watch those, oh, those are my favorites to watch. 

46:17 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree, those would be my favorites to watch. 

46:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll tell you what my favorites used to be. I also mentioned this on Sunday night, but me and Austin Mock, who I have on in the fourth quarter on Sunday nights from the Athletic, we used to model out NBA first to score. I've told this many times before, right, but basically the prices used to be really bad because they were priced as derivatives of the game and really didn't account for who was winning the tip. And for us, Andre Drummond used to be like our go-to guy because he played with the pistons. He was 80 percent jump baller. Pistons were underdogs. In every game they were going to win the tip. We get underdog prices on them to score first. Some of these games, though, it happened on the first possession. Some of them would take three or four minutes before and you would watch 10 shots and you're living on the knife's edge. Your team gets an offensive rebound, puts up a layup, it rims out. Those were honestly that's the goods. 

47:13
They're great bets. Looking back on them now, amazing. But when you lose one of those, it's the worst losses imaginable. When your team gets like four or five chances to score the first basket and they miss all the shots, including like wide open looks, and you lose that I'm honestly lucky, like when I was in college, like there were props, but there weren't props. 

47:36 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, it's different time now and you could just like, like what me and my buddies would be doing, like through one game would be disgusting, and I with the phones in our hands. 

47:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So god bless, god bless the stuff I'm betting now, like I am literally betting, will, uh, this game total, finish otter, even right now, and I'm going through all the permutations in my head in like the fourth quarter of what I need to happen. This it's my brain is like it's crazy football you can't basketball oh yeah yeah yeah, football. 

48:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
There's clear permutations once that came through the fourth quarter. Sure, yeah but it's. 

48:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just a new world now with the amount of bet types available. I'm sure these existed in the past. They just weren't all as widespread as they are now. All right, next topic over here I don't know. You all right there, jeff? Yeah, okay, kyle Hunter Picks posted. Let's take a little long shot. Stab with UC Irvine Moneyline at plus 130. It lost. He gets a response that says good one. He then follows it up with a tweet saying in response to taking a plus 430 money line, live. I see why people don't like posting free plays. Very often news flash, huge underdog money lines will usually lose. This is the opposite, anti-physic physics usually posting the big favorites. This one's going big money line and loses. I do have some sympathy with people who do post picks that are likely to lose and put them out there. You're rolling your eyes at me right now. You don't have any, no sympathy. 

49:18 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Okay, kyle Hunter picks sells picks right? Yes, because he mentions giving free plays. Picks sells picks right? Yes, because he mentions for selling giving free plays. Like, if you sell picks, like the world's smallest violin for people shitting on you if you lose, like this is what you're posting plays. Because this is what pisses me off. He's acting like posting free picks. Is this utilitarian thing that he's just trying to make other people money? Yeah, bullshit. He's posting it because he wants it to win, because he thinks it's probably good, because he wants more people to pay for his service. So if your play loses and people shit on you, sucks to suck ah, eons ago. 

50:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I did some stuff with kyle hunterons ago. I do strongly believe he is a winning better. 

50:06 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I'm not keeping up with what he's doing nowadays or anything like that I'm not even saying that he's a loser or a winner or whatever. I'm just saying if you're selling picks and then you give out free ones and people shit on, you sucks to say. 

50:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I think at the end of the day, if you are putting picks out there regardless, you have to be able to take the criticism of whether it's going to lose exactly what did the guy say it was just a very sarcastic one, exactly go go to any account of the sickest highlight from the nfl this weekend and the comments on that. Oh, that guy's mad. That guy's a loser like who gives a shit. It's an avatar list like this is just the barometer of playing on the internet yes, totally so that's the thing like the entry level for for playing on the internet is having. 

50:56
is that good one? Yeah, I'm sure there were meaner ones, but for like, of course, kyle, this isn't your first rodeo and and maybe it does suck, because there are good people who make good picks, who make good live bets, but are just like you know what, even for their own mental health. I don't even just want to post this Win or lose Like I don't care, like I don't need a post that's like plus 800. That should be plus 550, because I don't need 12 of those. 

51:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's gotten sad, but that's just the entry level of playing on the internet. 

51:30
I totally agree with you. I went through this phase as well, where I used to post picks on Twitter. I don't anymore. Most of the picks I give out are either on our own network, here at the Hammer for progress or other shows as well. But I had to get to the point where I was prefacing like every pick I would give out with. Something like this pick will probably lose, you know, five times out of six, but at this price I still think it's worth a good bet. And you know it's sad that I even had to think about applying context to picks. But even if I was to go back to posting picks, I very likely would do that honestly. 

52:12 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, I just think I agree with Jeff. It's just the rules of the internet, like if you're going to post something you might get shit on and it is what it is. 

52:19 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It was a great pick, like you posted, a golfer like 90-1 that loses by a stroke to like a super elite. 

52:26 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
It's like a losing pick. I looked this up. They lost by 14 in the end. So maybe there's like they didn't even come close and the guy's upset Like they didn't even get a sweat out of it. That could be possible as well. 

52:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Also, when you're on the internet and you tell someone else's pick, guess what Responsibility is on you for? 

52:43 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
that pick. 

52:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absolutely pick, guess what responsibilities on you for absolutely, absolutely. I mean there's, there's, it's just really my favorite. 

52:47 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
That, uh, people who sell picks use, is that. 

52:50 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Read my write-up and decide for yourself, oh my god, yes, that's the best one yeah, so it's like the onus is on you because you bet it yeah it's actually your fault if it loses, but if it wins, right it's. I'm right exactly it's also. 

53:04 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Here's the thing if you get so big right, even someone like trent, as an example, like you, you're so big that it's almost impossible to like read all the messages. Yes, like there's just so much coming in, you can never actually. If you do read your messages, you're like you're scrolling for a minute. You'd get like a small, small percentage of what's coming in. Someone you know, like you, rob, or like myself, like you've got a big audience, you've got a platform, you got a big following, but it's like not big enough where, like, if you're in a waiting room, if you're sitting in line somewhere for four minutes, like you can see all of your mentions yes, yep, right, so it's like I don't want to do that. But if you're big enough where, like you're not gonna, maybe just like I don't care, I can post anything I want, like it doesn't even matter anymore people just yelling into. 

53:57
Yeah now, like you're so big, you're just getting yelled at, even if you post. Have a lovely day everyone yeah all. 

54:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Before we get to our next topic here, I do want to remind you if you are in Canada, make sure you check out Pinnacle Sportsbook. I've been betting with Pinnacle for a long time. They've been in business for the past 25 years for a reason. But if you are someone who cares about betting limits and not getting shut down at a sportsbook because you're winning, pinnacle's going to be a spot for you. They post the limits right on site for every single bet that you make and you can bet up to that maximum amount. You're not treated any differently from anyone else. Find out what pros have known for the past 25 years. 

54:34
Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus, not available in the US, as always. Please play responsibly and if you do want to check them out, go to Pinnaclecom. Slash Hammer. All right, moving on here to the latter half of the show, if you haven't liked the show yet, smash that Like button down below. Of course, if you're not subbed here on Forward Progress, make sure you do so as well. There's a video that circulated this week of Mikey Over from Book it. He was sitting at one of our tables last week on the show who's at your table, jeff? 

55:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
yeah, when I saw this, yeah, like I was like oh, I guess, uh, they put I'm at the short bus table, which I was flattered to be included. 

55:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But now it's like oh, we would rather not been included than put at the short bus well, they're advertising for prize picks and in this video he specifically says that they offered three times the odds of other sports books on a parlay that he's betting placing any prize picks entries over two legs, because there is no point in my head. 

55:39 - Mikey Overs (Caller)
It is so much easier to get two legs right and the two leg pays out 3x. So there's, I think, 99 less room for error on a two leg and you're getting paid triple what you'd get paid at any sports book uh dgen weekly uh commented on this video and said I used prize picks for months before realizing the 3x payout is not 3x. 

56:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you bet $100, you think you're winning $300. Not the case. You win $200 and get your money back. I asked Underdog about this. Apparently it's a loophole in the law for daily fantasy companies. I don't like it, but can we really blame them? Most businesses take advantage of loopholes, so until they are forced to legally advertise the payouts correctly, I guess we'll just have to know we're being misled. So to clarify if I was going to bet a parlay that paid two to one $100 to win $200, and I did that at pinnacle, it's listed at plus $200. And that's where it's listed pretty much everywhere Prize picks would include the risk amount and would make it plus 300 instead of plus 200. 

56:52 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, that's really where I have the problem with it, because 3x payout since that's not comparable to what other sites advertise, you could kind of say it's not that deliberate. But the fact that they post plus 300 when your actual odds are plus 200 is completely insane and and I think, yes, we can blame them and anyone who advertises like, fine, yes, most businesses take advantage of loopholes, that's fair, but like this is insanely scummy behavior. I did not know this before this post the fact that they're posting plus 300 and it's actually plus 200 like that's scum of the earth stuff. 

57:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do think that dj weekly has some points here in terms of how businesses are run. It is a competitive advantage for them in market to have to not adhere to regulation that some other sportsbooks have to, and and, as a differentiator, they can use it to their advantage. Now would I do that? No, but I'm a shitty CEO because there's ethics and morals that come into decision-making for me altogether. I can totally see why a company like PrizePix would do that. I actually have more issues with the influencers who are promoting that. Either you're a complete moron if you're Mikey over, or you are intentionally misleading people. Yeah, and like. You got to draw the line at some point and be like this is this is ridiculous. 

58:18 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, I just I just think it's both like I agree with you in terms of it obviously helps them as a business, but there are obviously our lines where a business can do something that is good for them. But past a line of being really shitty and like obviously your sports book, you're already like kind of shitty. But this is to me that's like really intentionally misleading. And the fact that he said they talked about it and underdog is like totally aware of it, of it, or prize picks aware of it, whatever, that's like really really scummy. 

58:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And I agree the influencer part of it is also totally scummy yeah, it's all dirty and even uh, I mean it's probably a worse. It's a bad look for prize picks. But Mikey, like you said, either playing so stupid that he doesn't know what he's saying or he's promoting their grift. 

59:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, I think it's a bit of both. It's a bad look for prize picks to guys like us who understand betting, but most people I mean I like, Degenerate a lot. 

59:24 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, I think he's a bright guy. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. I don't think it took him months. 

59:30 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Well, I was going to say that I don't. 

59:32 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Months is tough, I think it took him getting paid a couple times, realizing like, no, actually like. Knowing what you deposited, knowing how much you won on your tickets, to quickly realize I Caused it, knowing how much you want on your tickets to quickly realize. 

59:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I feel, very confidently that us four in this room, our first bet at prize picks, when we put together a parlay and saw the payout, would be able to identify that this is not the payout that's being advertised. 

59:55 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I feel very confident. It would take one bet. It would take me months. 

59:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it would take one bet. 

59:59 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree, months is a tough luck. But that's not exactly the point. 

01:00:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is kind of insane that they can use it as a competitive advantage, though. 

01:00:08 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Oh, it's gross. 

01:00:12 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
There's a reckoning a-coming, just the fact that it's plus 300, when every other book would be plus 200. So it's such a direct line of comparison, but the actual payout is the same. 

01:00:26 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
That's like way past the line of scummy. Where it's more scummy is like plus 300 plus 200. Like it's so different that you feel like something's up. What would be the real scummy thing would be posting like plus 210 plus 220. So it's like right there, Do you think? Oh, it's slightly better. That's a lot harder to notice because it's like okay, this one's just a little bit off market here. 

01:00:42 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
No, I don't think I agree. If you see plus 300, you think oh okay, this is plus 300. Of course, every bettor who's ever bet interprets plus 300 the exact same way. 

01:00:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then another site has just decided we're going to include your risk amount as a winning on top of this and boost. 

01:01:03 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
If the market was plus 200 and I saw plus 300 at one spot compared to the rest I would really investigate before placing that bet. 

01:01:12 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I'm not sure I would. I think I just trust plus 300. 

01:01:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Honestly, the first time around? I almost certainly would For sure, but you would pick it up fairly quickly. 

01:01:26 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I'm not saying like okay, I'm scared, I like this bet so much that I'm scared to bet it. I'm not saying it like that, I'm just saying like it would come up in your accounting though? 

01:01:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
right, because you're doing figures for a week and if you're tracking stuff at plus 300 parlays and it's winning and and then there would be a discrepancy between your figure, and then you would figure it out fairly easily. Yes, that's where bet tracking comes into play. It really does. 

01:01:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Well, I mean I guess lucky for these guys, all the attentions on healthcare CEOs. 

01:02:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And not the sportsman CEO. 

01:02:00 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Well, Kanishn is Antifa Blue Sky. Kanishn is Antifa Blue Sky friends, they're being distracted by healthcare CEOs at the moment. It's true Because. 

01:02:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going soft. It's going to shift to sportsbook CEOs at some point. Taylor Mathis back on the show. Oh God, the return, the return. Walking Bets Monday Night Football edition. I see Jacob conveniently cut out the video for this one. Sorry, this is text. Only it's opposite day, because I need to win a bet. Crying face emoji. Four picks for the Monday Night Football game. Are you fading these? I've seen this song and dance before on gambling Twitter. This is there's lots of things that rub me the wrong way. The old opposite move are you, you know, fade? These is the classic content creator free roll. I'm just going to call it out for what it is because there's a couple of options here. Well, there's many options content creator free roll. 

01:03:01
It's the content creator free roll it's the. 

01:03:03 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Every video she makes is a content creator free roll. It's the content creator free roll. It's the. Every video she makes is a content creator free roll okay, that's but, this is like when you've yeah yeah, listen, as long as it's not in a hoodie and sweats from her couch. Every video she makes is a free roll well, she has the ultimate trump card. 

01:03:23 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
if something goes wrong, she just just hey listen, it's a triple free roll too, because it's opposite day, but then also are you fading these. 

01:03:30 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
So if they lose, they win. If they win, they lose. What does she want you to bet here? 

01:03:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Basically, as long as she doesn't go 2-2 here, she's had a winning night, yes. So if these four picks go 4-0, 3-1, 1-3, or 0-4, she can claim a winning night, no matter what. I've been on gambling Twitter since 2010. I've seen this happen an abundance of times. It's the one that pisses me off the most. I am in a rut, so now you need to go the opposite of my picks the dumbest thing that's happening here is she is pretending that it matters. I know, that is the dumbest. 

01:04:08 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No one gives a fuck. Listen. You use what you got, yeah, and you take it as far as it can fucking take you and I support that, yeah. And if that means getting in a Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition and living out your dream like good for you, you all the power to you. But the dumbest part of all of it is she plays into the charade that it matters it doesn't make a difference, just make your picks. 

01:04:37
Who gives a? If you are wrong, we are. We do not need to respect you. Like you sell insurance or real estate. 

01:04:48 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
That's well said, but doesn't she want to be respected? 

01:04:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
She does, but you can't, you can't, god Jacob, you can't have it both ways. 

01:04:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yes, you can't Play it? Play it, write it, write it. 

01:05:01 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
That's why she wants to be taken seriously, that's why it matters to her. 

01:05:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So she's got to be self-aware enough to know like that isn't in the range of outcomes. I'm not sure if she is. That's not in the range of outcomes. 

01:05:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
When she films the video at the end of a day where she lost, and she's like we lost again and this and that. Do you think that she's actually feeling those emotions? Like, what do you think is driving her to put that video out? There, is it? I'm looking for engagement. I actually want people to sympathize with me. Like what, what is driving that? 

01:05:37 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
she, she wants, uh, you to know if you're telling her pick that she's thinking about you. 

01:05:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, I think, if you're, if you're in the simp army and you went down with ezekiel elliott touches. You know she's here to be like she's shocked that it didn't happen Again. It is only like you can't have it both fucking ways. 

01:06:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I am in 100% over your daughter. You have an open highway. 

01:06:06 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You have like an early 2000s Kansas City Chiefs O-line filled with Hall of Famers plowing holes for Priest Holmes to blow through. You have them. 

01:06:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you Very interesting, obscure reference? No, I'm just saying. How did you? Chargers fan. He remembers it very clearly. He remembers all the Priest Holmes just running all over them very clearly. 

01:06:30 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm just saying you have it. You have your lane like your lane is perfect. This is so unnecessary, it's so I don't know what the right word is and I'm not a wordsmith. It it's hard to do, but it makes you seem too stupid to actually play with the the hand you're being dealt. Yeah, yeah, I don't deviate from that. 

01:06:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I like where you went with this, because I don't know if it made any sense. It does. It makes a lot of sense to me. It's just I, I notice, and this will come up over the course of several years of doing this show. 

01:07:10 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Hopefully fingers crossed, but no one likes when a real capper yes, like a pro or someone who facades as a pro has a nice hit and then they have some bad weeks and it's just all followed by these like long-winded tweets. People don't respect that from like real pro bettors. Let alone, because people are actually tailing those but let alone like from this, yes, from this, it's like worse, because this is this, um, it's not real who is betting these picks. 

01:07:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is what I want. 100 like it doesn't matter, like none of it really matters in the sense that, okay for one. If you want to get this, like, take it seriously, it seriously, you've got to take it seriously, she could go 2 and 98. 

01:07:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
She would not lose a fucking follower. Yeah, it doesn't matter. 

01:07:59 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I actually think if she ran so bad, she'd actually gain followers because she'd get more engagement. 

01:08:04 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah probably, but she's got to be smart enough to know what matters. Yes, I guess that all comes down to like my issue. Yes, I guess that all comes down to my issue. Okay, I'm just like oh, it's on a platter for you to hit the hole. 

01:08:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, my opinion of this was I see things that over time have been repeated by many people in the rec betting space opposite day as it stands has been repeated many times. I've seen the victory laps from people when they go for no and they're like, well, you shouldn't have faded, like I'm back, I'm back now and this and that, or told you to fade. There's it's, it's setting yourself up to win, no matter what. I hate that in the sports betting space. 

01:08:48 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I find it extremely disingenuous actually getting you to bet, like if you read this and you actually wanted to tail. What would you think she's telling you to bet here? Because I would think she's this is her normal picks, but the opposite. So I I would think she wants to bet robinson over four and a half receptions, but then that she posts under I I. 

01:09:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think that her actual picks are what's on the screen. She wants you to fade it and she wants you to fade them. 

01:09:15 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I thought the opposite. 

01:09:16 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
It's not clear as to whether I thought it was what you were saying, Jake I think it's what Rob says those are the bets. 

01:09:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We don't even know what the real bets are. 

01:09:25 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
That's even more. 

01:09:26 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Those are the bets, and she's saying play the other side because I'm cold. 

01:09:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, because she says are you fading these at the end. 

01:09:34 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I did not interpret it that way. I interpret it as she liked, B John Robinson over. But since she'd been losing she posted under. That's what I thought, but then if you fade, then you're on what she originally liked. Who fucking knows? I agree, it's a charade, it's not real. 

01:09:47 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
It's a Fubazi, it's a. 

01:09:48 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Fugazi, it's. Who fucking cares about? There's not a price? There's not like. 

01:09:53 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
This isn't about betting. There's no price. All that matters is that she goes outside and makes the picks. 

01:10:01 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Or in front of the chalkboard. It did have a video that accompanied the post. 

01:10:04 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Okay, or she can give a master class at the chalkboard. Yes, 100%. 

01:10:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just don't like things that set up people to be to victory lap, no matter what Classic move. 

01:10:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
She can't victory lap, no matter what that is like, never mind. Okay, let's move on. 

01:10:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know what you're saying. I get it Christmas around the corner. Happy holidays to everyone out there who celebrates. Happy holidays to whatever you celebrate. At my cousin's job this got tweeted by John Nucci they do a white elephant where you have to buy a $20 gift for someone else. One of her coworkers gave someone the rights to a. Printed out plus 8,914 nine-leg parlay. Incredible move. Parlay did end up losing by a couple games quickly, very like. It lost sunday morning. Sunday morning, chelsea lost chelsea they tied, they drew, so it lost. That pick lost. Um, curious what you think of the gift in general incredible intent. 

01:11:07 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I've actually done this before. Oftentimes I'll give like if I'm giving someone a wedding gift, I'll give the gift and then in the card I'll have like a ProLine ticket. Okay, the execution's terrible. 

01:11:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For those that don't know, proline would be you go to your local convenience store. You'd be able to play it over the counter. They print out an actual slip for you. You can insert that. 

01:11:27 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yes, exactly, you need need to give someone the actual slip, or yeah, like print it out from a casino because this is like kind of meaningless. The money would go into your account, then, like you're transferring it to them in the states, like, yeah, it's just, it's just what happens if it actually wins. Well, the person. It's just all a weird execution, but I like the thought a lot. 

01:11:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I like the thought. Right, like um makes sense. Here's some office secret Santa plays. Well, also, shout out to John, I know he's. Uh, there's a lot of like the live PGA legal stuff on Twitter, so I'm a fan. I would say this is it's a like, the idea is right. But this also reeks of when my mother-in-law wants to get me something golf, because she knows I like golf and there's nothing she can get that would ever go into my bag, into my cart, into any part of me and my golf. So you're like oh, but it's nice, right, like oh, you like betting. Whip this up and Rob would see this and be like you fucking, why'd you put the Lions in this game? And so you're on the wrong side of the movement. Like it would just give, like you agita, like it would just like really, even though it's a $20, nothing good gesture, it's sad to say. I'd probably rather $20 to Domino's. 

01:13:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, like I'd, also like yoga. 

01:13:03 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, I'd rather just like a $20. You know I don't, but you've got to give the person props, so I think this is bad. 

01:13:12 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I think it's a lot worse. You can get for a $20 gift. 

01:13:14 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I agree, I don't want to shit on it. I don't want to shit on it. 

01:13:17 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I would say at least have it be fun. So like a sweat, like a parlay, which I guess the Notre Dame game would have been Saturday, and then two Premier League games in the morning, then a bunch of Sunday football, then one Monday night football game, that could end relatively quickly. If it's a season-long prop, I think that's a lot more enjoyable because you've got the full sweat. 

01:13:37
But then again now you have to hang on to the ticket all year and you have to keep up with the person. If it's your office Christmas pool now are both people still working there at the end of the season? But I would say you want to have a little bit more value to it than just a parlay that gets cooked the next morning. 

01:13:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I like the premise. When I first saw this, by the way, I I thought I'm like oh, this is pretty cool. And the more and more I've thought about, I'm like first of all, exactly what you said, jeff. If someone got this for me, I'd be like what the fuck is this like? I don't want this take it back cash it out. 

01:14:08 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Give me cash out to make my. Let me build it. Let me build again. 

01:14:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Give me the 20 bucks and let me build my own damn parlay for a while yeah yeah. Also like I could never give this to someone else either. I just find it really weird. You know, like scratch cards are one thing To your point, right. It's like the ticket is there, it's theirs now, exactly. They can gamble of scratching it and in this, yeah, they get the satisfaction of sweating it or whatever there's. There's a lot of logistical issues with if this parlay hits what. Did that pay it like 1800? 

01:14:38 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
yeah, not a ton of money, yeah, but someone, so it's a good number someone's on the hook for those taxes now. 

01:14:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Whoever played that in their account? For first and foremost, that happens in a lot of us states, luckily in ontario in Ontario. Here it's a hobby. 

01:14:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I like the gift I've found my way into. It's hard to buy things for people and at this stage in my life I actually like paying for either being teammates in a Survivor or a Golf 1 and and done. It's just like it's gonna make me like look really bad when it's clipped, but it's almost like I'm paying for, um, like camaraderie with a friend. Yeah, but I think which I don't think is unhealthy because like we don't talk at all. 

01:15:28
Yeah, like we're good, we're lifelong friends. Yeah, we're busy with our jobs or our kids. Like we're not. Like we're guys we don't like, yeah, we're busy with our jobs or our kids. Like we're not. Like we're guys. We don't like call each other to be like, oh, what'd you do this weekend? Right, I need something to talk about. Like, who are we picking who's in our circa? Who's this? Yeah, who we taking in one and done that's. That's what I like to do that's a really fair point. 

01:15:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's very valid, but this is a hit. This is like a quick jam. I also wonder about the legality of this. 

01:15:57 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
What at the office? 

01:15:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like you're promoting gambling, no, but technically, this is a bet for someone else into your own account, and you're now publicizing that that's the case. 

01:16:08 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know, I don't think this is particularly sharp. I feel like we're really overthinking it. Also, hold, don't know, I don't think this person's particularly sharp. I feel like we're really overthinking it. 

01:16:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, also Hold on a second. You can't, that's fine, fair point Completely dismissed. What do you notice about the selections? 

01:16:22 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I think, it's the craziest part about this whole thing Is the six points on the Ravens. 

01:16:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, exactly, Vikings Moneyline. They were three-point favorites in the game. Lions were also six and a half, but they laid the six. The Ravens were obviously the best bet. They loved the Ravens this week enough that they're like fuck, we're not taking the Ravens money line, we're laying the six. Just give a $20 ticket with the Ravens minus six. 

01:16:43 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
No, but that's way less fun. You want it to be able to be a big payout. To me, the craziest part about the whole bet that we haven't mentioned fract odds. I've never met anyone who's used fractional odds that must be a bloke yeah, that's serial killer behavior this 

01:16:57 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
is also a really silly question. Yeah, do the sports books have gift certificates? No, definitely not wow, I swear, I swear to god I got I got a 200, or maybe they just Someone gave me $200 of party poker once, or am I making that up? I don't remember. 

01:17:16 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Party poker. Maybe there has to be something illegal about that. 

01:17:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You might have been buying a gift. You're right, you're right? 

01:17:21 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
No, you can't. Yeah, it's definitely not legal. 

01:17:23 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
There's no way they wouldn't do that. I'm making that up, maybe gift cards back in the day. 

01:17:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe Do you remember that. You know what I'm talking about. 

01:17:32 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
That was a big scam, I would say for a gift like this. I would not advise anybody to get your friend some of this Christmas. But hey, you have a gift already and you want to just top it up a little bit. I think this is a good ancillary gift. Get them the actual ticket. Get them the actual ticket. 

01:17:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I've come all the way back around to this being amazing. 

01:17:52 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
It's great. Yeah, it's a good gift. Give him the real physical ticket. 

01:17:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Honestly yes If somebody gave this to me. I would probably question a bunch of the. It's my nature as a bettor I'd be like I don't know, but I would appreciate it. 

01:18:04 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
There's a lot worse to get for $20. 

01:18:14 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And like, yeah, just like a long shot type of parlay, I'm in, I'm back in. So I don't know what to get you wrong all the way. 

01:18:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know I think this guy's got a good chance at the masters. 

01:18:21 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I put 50 bucks on, that's it beautiful love, something like that also very important part of this. That makes it a much better gift. You have to also be on it, yes, yeah, of course like if $20, if you gave the person $20, you also need your own $20 on it yeah, yeah. Yeah. 

01:18:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
We got to be in this together? Well, because you also can't have that ticket hit for your own peace of mind. 

01:18:42 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yes, yes. 

01:18:43 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You've got to nibble it in case it actually hits. 

01:18:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to start doing this around the holidays for account priming. I'm just going to play parlays for all my friends and give them tickets Smart. 

01:18:52 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
That's plus you move of the week. 

01:18:53 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And we don't have the tax issues here. 

01:18:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You've come all the way around, all the way around. Now I'm thinking about how I can get hundreds of these parlays. 

01:19:00 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's like one of my buddies is getting like a Korean baseball parlay. He's not going to know what hit him. 

01:19:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm showing up to Christmas Eve at my mother's tomorrow night just handing out printed pages of the parlays. 

01:19:11 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Instead of cash in the card, just put a parlay slip. Oh man, Can't wait to be doing this. 

01:19:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You could dummy that account. Why not? There's NFL NBA Christmas Day. Why not get a Christmas Day parlay going? 

01:19:23 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
Yeah. 

01:19:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right Perfect. 

01:19:24 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
You know what that would be decent Like a Christmas Day NFL SGP. Yeah. Because you it in the morning and you can watch it during the day with whoever you give it to. That makes it better. 

01:19:34 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Oh for sure. If you can sweat it together with people, for sure. 

01:19:38 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
When you mentioned it should be like you're on it as well. This would be really good for, like, a bachelor party where you give all your groomsmen or something a bet to sweat that night or one of the nights. Absolutely, I think that'd be in the right context this that night or one of the nights? 

01:19:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
absolutely, I think that'd be in the right context. This is a good guess. Oh, I'm back around on john nucci. John nucci, very clever, love that idea. Uh, we're gonna end with, uh, raheem palmer's tweet uh, which blew up this week, uh, which was about how he would fix the nba. So for those that don't know, haven't been keeping up with the news, nba tv ratings have been down. Raheem palmer says this is how I'd fix the NBA. 

01:20:14
Shorten the season 66 game season. You play every other team twice except the teams in your division. You play them four times. Maybe you make up the lost games with the in-season tournament in some capacity. Get rid of East and West. The best 16 teams make it to the playoffs. Get rid of the play-in tournament 16 teams make it. We don't need any more. 

01:20:32
All the play-in tournament does is reduce the value and stakes of the regular season. Point differential should determine home court advantage, not record. Also, home court in the playoffs gets five of the potential seven games in a postseason series. You want to take off one night in December because it doesn't matter. Well, it does now. Now, and playoff teams can pick their opponent. There's a draft before every round of the postseason and this can create additional content for the league. We talked about this on Circleback either last week or a couple weeks ago about the picking your opponent. Before we get into the suggestions here, why is the NBA losing market share? Because I will say I loved the NBA when I was younger. For many years. Since the Raptors won the NBA title, I'd say it's gone downhill for me. I don't know why I can't place my finger on why I don't watch nearly as much NBA as I used to. 

01:21:27 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, so I don't care that much about this question because realistically, like, I love watching the NBA so it doesn't matter so much to me if other people like it. 

01:21:36
But obviously I have given it some thought and you said you can't put your finger on the reason why, and I think that's because there's just a lot of reasons. One I think there's some self-fulfilling prophecy of people start hating the NBA and then it becomes kind of popular to hate the nba and people think it's a bad product. I think definitely the resting, the injuries for sure, and I actually feel bad for these players because I actually agree a lot with a lot of what raheem says. I think, for whatever reason, especially in the nba, when people, when players don't play, the immediate assumption is every time they're just resting, which just isn't true, like the NBA season is insanely taxing on some, on a person's body, sure, so they players get hurt all the time and also a lot of the time it's just in the team's best interest for the player not to play in a certain game to get some rest and then I think, but to jump in on that, like when I grew up watching the nba, it was very different than it is now. 

01:22:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was intense. Yeah, you know you drive the paint in a playoff game early in the game you are going to be sent a message. Yeah, I think it does feel it's different, soft and sometimes you think like is it? 

01:22:50 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
am I just a boomer? Yeah, or is it? 

01:22:52 - Mikey Overs (Caller)
different, but then you're like boomer, yeah, or is it different, but then you're like I don't know, I watched Dennis Rodman, I watched Charles Oakley, I watched, like these guys. 

01:22:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Ben. 

01:22:59 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Wallace and Rasheed Wallace and they didn't like each other and there was more drama. Yeah, there was like sorry and like obviously the games are dramatic and the end of a game is dramatic, but I mean there was more like drama surrounding the league. The league to me at this moment just feels like it exists from October until the start of the playoffs in like Twitter clips. 

01:23:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what I? Resonate with that. 

01:23:28 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
The regular season? Yeah, people don't care about the regular season at all. And now what's happened? 

01:23:31 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
to your point. In the pile on is what the league used to live on Twitter via Twitter clips, and now it lives on Twitter getting shot on. Yeah, yeah, it's getting. I cannot go a minute, and maybe it's because I watched one or two videos in the last month about, like, what's wrong with the NBA. I don't believe it's political, neither do I, and I'm pretty. 

01:23:52
I don't think it's and I People can say I kind of get hyper politicized in the current climate. I actually don't believe it's political. I believe there is something that isn't resonating with the current competition or game play and in the way I know, like football they got so few games the way, like it seems like every single one of these guys does every single fucking thing they can to play, to play. Um, I don't know, there's just a mindset because people aren't watching. But everyone's watching football and I'm not comparing the two. I'm only saying whatever you need, whatever you're paying for to watch football on those national packages, you have access to basketball. You're just choosing not to watch it. I'm one of those people, but I wasn't really watching the basketball like five years ago either. 

01:24:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The reason I brought up like what is the actual problem here is because Raheem is like this is how I'd fix the NBA, and I think in order to like fix something, you have to know the root cause of what's turning people off of it in the first place. I definitely think the amount of rest is impactful for people for sure like you. You. You can buy tickets to a game in the top three players hold on, though. 

01:25:08 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Do you know what else has killed the NBA, which, as a fan, I like the championship or bust. And listen, we grew up with the Michael Jordan heyday, so we watched for an extended period of time no one else other than Hakeem Olajuwon win a couple championships, but it didn't feel like it was championship or bust through the whole ecosystem of the league, like it was championship or bust through the whole ecosystem of the league. Everyone else and their shitty players, like Mitch Richmond in Sacramento mattered and was a star, and it wasn't like, oh, he doesn't have a championship, he sucks Now. Maybe that's like social media and the discourse, and I get it how it pertains to quarterbacks, but again, like Brady, ate a lot of Super Bowls where it allowed not a lot of other people to get the opportunity to be champions, and that's held against some guys fairly unfairly, but the championship bust mindset isn't healthy. That being said, I'm a fan. I'd rather my team win two games and draft first or second than eight or nine and be in the middle of that fucking pile. 

01:26:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Because no man's land is death. Well, even as we're wrapped me, kirk and Jacob has Amateur Hour Sports on YouTube. He does live watch-alongs of Raptors games. I can't watch a full wrap. I don't know how he does it, man. I can't do it Because to me I you go into the year with the expectations of your team being crap. I I did a circles off with this guy before the year, um, where we were, we were doing a co-hosting and we did an interview, um with an nba better as well, when we were talking about how crappy the raptors are going to be, you know, before the season even starts, I'm like, yeah, I don't even, I don't even have interest, I am I guess for for. 

01:26:50 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
For me, with all the NBA, I'm truly like I don't know the right words entranced, but I seriously enjoy individual journeys that these players take. So if one guy has progressed his game incredibly to being end of the bench, to being somebody who has found this little niche part of his game that makes him super important on a night-to-night basis, I find that enjoyable. I find the development of the players enjoyable. I do agree with jeff, though part of the issue is like, like for the raptors, most, most fans go to every game wanting the team to lose because, okay, what's the sense of finishing nine or ten? If you even make the playoffs, you get railroaded by the celtics in the first round. Is that better than getting a top pick in a really good draft in 2025? It's not. 

01:27:36 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'd rather win one title and be fucking god-awful for 14 years. That's what the Raptors did. But I'm just saying, like I get it and that's like I'm a fan. My teams don't win championships, so it's like, would you trade a? Like the Broncos? They haven't even made the playoffs since they won a Super Bowl. I make that trade as a beaten down sports fan, I got a Super Bowl. You mean, I don't? 

01:27:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
make the playoffs for deal. Well, people roast me as a Cowboys fan. It's like, well, I've watched the Cowboys win three Super Bowls in my lifetime. Now, granted, I was young and it does suck to suck for you know, two decades afterwards, but I've seen it happen. There's way worse than that and I, you know I wouldn't it. It is what it is, but I gotta talk to you about this because I I see so much about this of like analytics are killing the nba right, it's like a new game now, it's not that it's three like who. 

01:28:25
Who are the people who are like they want to see more mid-range jumpers like is that gonna? Is that all of a sudden gonna change the entertainment value the game? Instead of shooting a three, the guy takes two steps inside the three point arc and shoots a deep two. 

01:28:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, like what, it doesn't matter watching like two big guys hang out atop the arc is just. I think that like people hate that right I think I agree with you. 

01:28:47 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I don't think the three point stuff matters at all. I think the things we about, I think these are a lot of good ideas. I know you said this pre-show that they're never going to go to 66 games. 

01:28:57 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
In the same way, baseball's not going to 140. No, I actually just can't. I would bet the. 

01:29:01 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
NBA will go to 66 games. I think they will do that. 

01:29:04 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't think in the recent what about start at Christmas Day? 

01:29:06 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Exactly Start makes a lot of sense. I love the five of seven potential in the nba, the. The regular season is so devalued that needs to be picked up and teams would go very hard for that. I love the draft. The thing we haven't talked about end of game fouling. That is killer for the nba. There's that. Fouling in general is terrible in the nba. There's way too many fouls. There's way too much foul hunting. They did a better job last year and then I don't know why they didn't really go back to it this season. There needs to be more physicality. For sure the players flop and they go for calls and the refs incentivize that way too much. And then the end of game fouling is terrible. There's seven timeouts. Everyone thinks that, and it's true that the last two minutes of an NBA game takes 30 minutes. They should go to the Elam ending. It's an extreme change, but it would make the game way more exciting. So those are, to me, the two things. 

01:29:59 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Everyone's too rich and there's too much good guy culture, Like even the last guy on the bench is making too much money, At least in the NFL and the NHL. There are too many people on the fucking ice, on the fucking field, who at every moment want to prove themselves for a piece of the pie, and there is a disconnect in the NBA on some level. Maybe I'm dead fucking wrong, but it just feels like there is some level of disconnect. 

01:30:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, it feels real to you, at the very least For me, and basketball fans will jump all over me for this, but this is the way I truly feel about the NBA. I know this is not the reality of it, right, but for me, I can't sit down and watch an NBA game start to finish because the play in the first quarter and the play in the fourth quarter are so different, especially on the defensive side, and the play in the fourth quarter are so different, especially on the defensive side of the ball, that I feel like I'm just wasting time watching the first half of an nba. And there will be basketball purists who'll be like, uh, that'll jump all. This is just my take. 

01:31:03 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Okay, I do not find the analytics guy be like every shot. That shot's worth the same as your shot working off of screens and stuff like that. 

01:31:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It feels like I'm watching a practice for a lot of these games. It really feels that way. 

01:31:16 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't disagree, but then you hear stories about these like pickup games these guys play in the summer and these like ymcas, yeah, and they sound more competitive than any nba game you watch in the league I. 

01:31:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know what the solution is. I love the idea of point differential determining home court advantage, not record I love that. 

01:31:41 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
You can't do that and have the draft your playoff opponent though, because then you can do all that work and then still get taken. 

01:31:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I like the idea of draft your playoff opponent in principle, but it's never going to happen. We might as well just stop talking about that. 

01:31:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
The leagues are not gonna ever someone might bold I don't know someone might be like you want to add like a pre-postseason spectacle, like a tentpole event, true, like the draft. Yeah, playoff night round, one draft would feel tentpole, and while like maybe including this at the end I'm happy rob did it is we're just piling on like the rest of the internet right now and picking on the nba. Yeah, but it is undeniable that something has happened. No, a league like the nba sure, the nfl is bigger than everyone, it's not even fair to compare but a league like the nba to have its two biggest tentpole regular season moments feel meaningless is so fucking weird. This week, christmas at Netflix, two games Beyonce's performing yeah, is it? Mariah? Someone said Mariah Carey. 

01:32:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know the performances, are you? 

01:32:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
do you know how hard it? I'm not saying it's hard. We're all technologically advanced. I'm sure if you like it you'll have multiple screens. But to the casual it's a little more annoying to switch out of the app that is Netflix to go check out the NBA channel. 

01:33:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll tell you what I'm not going to be doing is checking out the NBA on Christmas Day while the Steelers and Chiefs are playing and the Ravens and Texans are playing. 

01:33:13 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
True, but a lot of America. 

01:33:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You go to family house on that day, it's on Netflix and you're like change it to basketball. So I'm like this fucking guy wants us to change the TV to basketball. Sorry, that was three years ago. Christmas, Football's here now, Football's here now, and then the All-Star game. So between Christmas Day and the All-Star game, these two huge moments that made the NFL in this meaning we all acknowledge regular seasons are long in every sport, but football they kind of feel meaningless. Those were the two events where the NBA was like elevated, and now those both feel like what are they? And Christmas isn't their fault. When the NFL decides to play on a wednesday, yeah, what can the nba do? But almost surrender right. 

01:33:57 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, the only thing I'll say is I think there are obviously problems and to me that's how I would fix it fouling the late game, fouling go to elam ending and then I like this five can you explain that the elimending is you play to a certain point in the game timed normal. But then, once you get to that point, instead of the time going you play now to a number. So let's say it's 90 to 80 and the target score is 100. It's just first to 100. So no late game. 

01:34:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I actually love that. I don't mind that. No late game, that's pretty sharp. 

01:34:33 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
They introduced that to the all-star game a few years ago and it made it amazing that's pretty sharp. 

01:34:37 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I love that. Everybody loved it. 

01:34:39 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
It's way better every game ends in a buzzer beater, the issue is if it's a blowout and you're down by 30 and then it goes to Elim ending those minutes, don it still matters? So there should be a certain point. You have to be like, let's say, the I think there could be something there, though, you have to be within 10 or 15,. 

01:34:56 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Let's say the late games. 

01:34:58
Even as a massive NBA fan, it's unbearable the fouling and also, now that teams sharply start fouling on threes like you're whatever. You're up three, up three, so foul and it's in the bonus You're fouling, it becomes unwatchable. Also, they need the reset timeout which is in WNBA. That's a smaller fix. It's just a timeout where no commercial break, you just advance the ball but no huddle. But the only thing in defense of the NBA is I don't know how much it is the NBA ratings are going down and it's a total catastrophe. Or it is. The nba just signed a massive deal. All the players are making insane amounts of money. The nba, mlb and nhl ratings are all kind of going down together and the nfl is just a singular beast. That is just. 

01:35:44 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You can't compare anything to I I I I mean, I listen the nba like a lot of sports that aren't the NFL. They're all capitalizing on the desire for content, sports being like the last vestige of live content. People who are buying these deals like this NBA deal is maybe the last. All these current TV deals right now are probably the last ones in this linear TV world. So it is so hard to quantify and to the naked eye it's like how on earth are the broadcasters going to make their money back from this NBA deal when stars play less? When they play more it's less minutes, but I don't know. There's so little in the content game. This is their last grasp at it. 

01:36:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'd be interested for people in the comments down below. Let us know how you would fix the NBA. I think possessions just need to be more important. You can't manufacture that. And then I put the TV on and the bucks are in blue. 

01:36:52 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
You can't manufacture that, you can't no but less differential. 

01:36:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then I put the TV on and the bucks are in blue Like you've got to stick with tradition and the court is like I've got to wear sunglasses to watch the NBA Cup, You've got to stick with I don't know. 

01:37:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
There's a level of like tradition that you can't piss the people off now. The Raptors came in Toronto when we were like 8, 9, 10. Yeah, now we have the purchasing power, yep. 

01:37:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If we wanted to own. Speak for yourself. Kirk, I don't think was even born yet at that point. Buy tickets. 

01:37:22 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm just saying right, like Rob, you and your friends know the NBA came when you were a little kid. Now you have the purchasing power. If you want to buy tickets, season's tickets, all of that I don't. But I will say I go to like two Raptor games a year and the NBA in person is still awesome. 

01:37:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love the NBA in person. 

01:37:40 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't watch a lick of it on TV when I go. 

01:37:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think they put on a lovely show there's crowd involvement on every defensive possession. The NBA product in person. 

01:37:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I took my kid to the game. Like it, there's stuff happening, it was yeah it was a good experience, but I don't go home and watch. 

01:37:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You pushed a couple people out of the way to catch one of those flying t-shirts t-shirt gun. In your section you're pushing people over. No, you're not one of those. 

01:38:04 - Jacob Gremegna (Co-host)
I'm sitting when the t-shirt my wife can sleep in this shirt. 

01:38:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, no fair, like I got a hand. I've gone to enough sporting events. I got enough Gildans in the closet, but that's like the brand that makes the T-shirt. That's like on your chair when you get in there. Yeah. 

01:38:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Good thing you explained that. I wasn't going to explain that to the people as well. 

01:38:27 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Classic t-shirt brand. 

01:38:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's notorious. 

01:38:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, 20 cents a shirt yeah, I've got enough free gildens. 

01:38:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, no more. Happy holidays to everyone out there. If you did enjoy this week of Circle Back, make sure you smash that like button. Let's get us up over 15K subs for the holidays. If you're new here, you're not subbed here on Circles Off. Please do so. Helps us grow our brand. People find us a lot easier, so make sure you're subbed here on circles off. Excuse me, circles off, yeah, circle back. It's also confusing. You really gotta streamline this a lot more. Uh, happy holidays to everyone out there. Appreciate you tuning in. We will not be back here next week. This is our final show of 2024. Cheers to a happy 2025. Thank you for supporting the show. Peace out. We'll see you in a few weeks.