00:00 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions it's circle back, episode number 13, presented by underdog. 

00:56 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It's our first episode here of 2025. Happy new year to everyone out there, whether you're watching on youtube or listening to us on spotify or apple podcasts. I'mizzola, joined by Kirk Evans, jeff Feinberg, jacob the Giant Romania. Happy New Year, boys. Good to see you again, good to be back. Everything go okay over the holidays? Absolutely, yeah, I felt we were gone too long, I agree. You did a little bit of vacationing. 

01:19 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, sure I got to get out of here. It's freezing cold, but still it's like. Oh, christmas time feels like the busiest time of year for this. Yes, people got after it with their eggnog. 

01:32 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
People had too much time to get the holidays they provided us a lot of content to work with here and typically we like to keep these shows succinct and tight. It was really really hard to pick the topics we're going to be this week. Thank you to everyone who used hashtag circle back on Twitter or X. That made it a lot easier to find stuff to talk about this week. And we're going to start with Blesbets. See Bles who is Blesbets? You may ask. I have no idea, but he's come onto the scene and he's taken gambling twitter, I would say, by storm in a very, very short period of time. So I'm going to paint the picture for everyone out there. As to Blesbets' last month or so on gambling twitter, he says there's so many frauds and scammers in the sports betting handicapping space. He's going to change the industry for the better in 2025. That's the starting point. 

02:31
Now he's come on the scene. He immediately did a bankroll challenge where he started with, I want to say, $10,000 and tried to build it up, lost a bunch of that in the challenge. I don't know what the final results were, but bankroll challenge, which typically we associate with more of like a recreational content creator. He has some graphics now with the edge meter. Love it, love it. I honestly do love it. Great engagement. He's breaking down matchups. Georgia. Notre Dame physicality coaching program you know, Bengals quarterback coaching desperation. 

03:09
The edge meter has appeared on Twitter. We have videos of him claiming to be kicked out of sportsbooks, so showing him going to place a bet, and they're saying you're not welcome here. I don't know whether they are real or not, but they're there. We have mentions of the algorithm. This is the big new one. Now the algorithm has a play in this game. Give me comments and likes, I will post the play. He references the algorithm in his videos as well, so kind of alluding to the fact that there's some sort of mathematical approach to whatever he's doing, he's saying, he's the algorithm. 

03:47 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I think that's what I took from it. 

03:48 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
He himself is the algorithm oh, I did not understand that. Are you sure about that way? Well, I think he has an algorithm. 

03:54 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
That's the only way I took it I I immediately thought interesting. 

03:59 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Well, either way, there's a there's some sort of algorithm involved in this type of situation, so we have that going for him as well. Now we have the standard high roller pictures uh, you know, wearing the nice watch, getting a manicure, stack of hundreds, stack of money laid out on the table. This is a classic influencer type of move over time. But then we have pictures of him in his place which are, uh, pretty bare bones. It's like a lot of garbage on the floor in the background looks like no furniture. Um, we have a picture of him with a mattress on the floor in the bedroom. This is how I stay locked in 100 of the time. Very minimalist approach. 

04:42
We have him betting at circus sports. They're known for being a sharp sports book and tagging jeff benson in. Like all the tweets posted a video of jeff behind the counter so trying to, you know, ingrain himself in the sharp community. We have the end of game live reactions, which I don't know that they're actually live or not. In my opinion, they might not be. I'd wager they're not. The angry throwing this stuff across the room holding the head. Can't believe I lost. At least he's posting the, else I will say, uh, we have a tweet where he is in a sense I don't want to say promoting sean perry, but gambling twitter community does not like sean perry. He's here saying he's got nothing but respect for a guy that's able to bet 200k on an nfl game. So we have all of that to deal with. 

05:37
Now there's a lot of haters of bllesbets. Number one hater, steve Fezzik. Steve Fezzik I want to estimate responds, quote tweets about 50 percent of Blesbets tweets calling him a loser. Basically, um sports betting fake expert fraud alert 101. Show pictures of money. Show picture of expensive watches. You know, don't do this type of stuff. Talks about him being, you know quote unquote limited at these sports books. Fez is taking shots at blez. So we got we got an internal rivalry there. 

06:15
Now we got another guy, steve mcqueen. This guy is convinced that blez bets is a loser. He's gonna post all of his plays for free. Uh, steve McQueen also does this with some other um touts in the space as well. So he's going to post his plays for free. He figured out, you know, he tracked down where he lives and that he's renting the place. He says he's 3 and 18 in his lap. Steve McQueen, another guy who's not buying into Blesbets being a winner in the long run. Then we have Snack House Racing, who? This guy dug deep and found multiple pictures of Blesbets holding a stack of hundreds in his hand. But he pointed out that in these pictures that are taken at different times the serial number on the bills is the same at the top. So it's calling BS, saying that he's just got this stack of bills and he's using it regularly for pictures. I got to say that's some real good detective work. 

07:17 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They don't. They don't forensic like that on the tick talk, do they? They do? 

07:21 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
not forensic, like I mean, this guy went deep. He dug deep, deep, had some serious time. Dan's picks points out that, um, he's a quote-unquote professional who sells picks but often gets bad numbers. 

07:32
Bets the stealers plus two minus 110 plus three minus 115 was available early in the week. He calls him scum. We have storm pig, who actually tags bles's brother, who's a high stakes poker player, and says you know, I used to play some private games with you before. How do you feel about your brother behaving like this? Are you not embarrassed? So there's a lot of hate haters in the scene that are happening here. Who is Bles Betts? 

08:05 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
This is a fascinating, fascinating induction into gambling Twitter. I don't think I can really ever remember coming someone coming in so fast and everyone's seeing them All of it. I don't follow him Every single one of his tweets are on my feed but after going through that, it does feel like he's an AI robot of like, a mix of like. He wrote into chat gbt, mix up Bo Wagner, sean Perry, um Bender, wins, put them all in a pot and I want to act like that person. Like he hits the pictures at circa the getting rejected, the uh bank builder. He's just an AI version of what like a tout is in 2025. 

08:49 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But he's also like he sees how easy all these real pro bettors are, as like marks Yep, yep, as in like not say they're idiots, but when it comes to like deciphering what's probably true and fake and engagement farming, goes like way over their head. The empty house. There's a picture you didn't put up. He's like topless Nipples are out, like he is straight. 

09:12 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I purposely chose not to. Yeah, that's fine. 

09:14 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But he's just purposely like playing this, like he's purposely mocking, in my opinion, the community. He's even having fun tagging Benson and like he is hitting, as you said, like he is hitting every like quarter leading off our show this song. 

09:32 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, he is leading off like. 

09:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I believe it's. I'm crazy enough to believe it's calculated. Yeah, and he is crushing it based on what he was trying. We're all played. 

09:42 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So I'm dying to have a conversation with this guy. I really, really want to have a conversation. 

09:47 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
There's no the bedroom. Come on, I care, that's not even the master, that's not even the master. That's like the off bedroom with the guest bedroom, with a little off washroom. There's a much bigger bedroom with a real bed in this house. 

10:03 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So my, my bedroom, with a real bed in this house, is that what? So my, my first foray into this, I saw some original tweets of his when he was small like I, like less than a thousand followers. I don't know what he's at now. I think he's jumped up to like six or seven k in a very quick span on twitter, but I saw him playing over the counter at um circa. I'm sure I got served those tweets because he's tagging jeff benson and everything. I interact Jeff a lot and I'm like all right, just like another guy that's placing bets and wants the world to see, and I'm like he's probably gearing up for a tout run. 

10:34
He is selling picks now and that happened really quickly, so he's got like some sort of VIP package 8.5K followers, by the way 8.5K, so like that's skyrocketed in a short amount of time, but as time has gone on, so I went from there to like okay, this guy's very obviously a fraud. At this point To now being in this state of limbo of like, I really have no clue. He obviously exhibits a lot of behaviors that I would not say are typical of the best bettors. He bets late at post, sometimes into what is considered one of the sharpest sportsbooks on the planet. However, lots of runners would do that. Some movers would do that, for very large groups Could easily be a beard for someone Not getting great numbers, so it makes it less less and less likely. Um could be just. Honestly, you remember when, like joe quinn, phoenix had pretended like he was crazy for a while? I've actually started to think that maybe this guy is just just playing everyone. Yeah, is that within the realm of possibility? 

11:44
Yeah, I think that would be my favorite right now, I think that's the favorite, because it almost seems like too yeah, it's too great Too over the top to actually be a true shtick. 

11:55 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm not sure what would fake mean. Like he knows that what he is doing is only for. Yeah, he knows how to rattle the pros. Yeah, he knows how to rattle gambling twitter and he's having fun doing that and would that also mean he knows he's losing better or he's not even betting in general? 

12:18 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
well, it does show slips, that's yeah, then it's like partially real. 

12:25 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Okay, you're right. There are like losing bets that happen for the bet, so it's not like totally fake. There are bad numbers and there are bets, but nothing like it's a high level recreational numbers. 

12:39 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yes. Well, without a doubt, this is engagement farming to the max. We can all agree on that. He is trying to drive engagement. He is doing it very successfully. We are talking about him. Fez is tweeting about him to 90K followers every single day. Mcqueen's finding his house. 

12:59 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
The forensic detectives of Twitter are out there getting him, which we always appreciate when it's not like you know, getting him, which we always appreciate when it's not like you know. I believe this guy is playing, but there are a lot of people who aren't playing and you still appreciate all the efforts made by people you know go, you know, doing their forensic detective work. 

13:18 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, I've I've. In life I've been very quick to jump to conclusions on people that I've been very wrong about, and I am much more hesitant about doing that nowadays. I like to see like the full picture, truly understand what's going on. There's some pieces that don't make sense, like if he has a very successful brother in the high stakes poker world. 

13:40 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He knows how to troll these guys. I mean like, if he has a-stakes brother, he knows enough. 

13:47 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I believe A lot of these big poker guys have gotten into sports recently, in years as well. Is he betting on behalf of his brother? I don't know what the answers are to all of this. All I know is I need to find out. Okay, agreed. 

14:03 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I believe it's entertainment, with the cost of of you know bad lines and more losing bets than winning bets. I after like the 15 page slideshow. I believe he is um having fun. 

14:18 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah I think the goal is probably to make money selling picks. Yeah, I think he probably knows he's not a winning sports better and very much knows he is a spectacularly good engagement farmer. 

14:31 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But once you have like, let's say you have enough people, is it just worth it? Worth enough to you to just buy some other people's picks and then just like throw your clients some of their bones? 

14:42 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
it depends on who you are as a person. Some people have made a living off of touting other people's picks that they know are sharp. Some people just don't even care enough and they just they live um solely for the purpose of making money for themselves, and they don't care that it's going to fall back on their clients that they're giving out losing plays. I don't know. I don't honestly know. I'd love to know the end goal for one. 

15:06
I'd love to know whether or not he actually thinks he's a winning better or not. I would say the proof in the early going is pretty overwhelmingly towards the fact that he is not Just judging by the numbers that he's playing relative to what the games are closing at pretty standard, consistent bet size across the board, which is also slightly unusual. I won't say that it doesn't happen. Some people like to bet flat stakes. I don't want to put too much into that. Definitely, the ones that really get me, though, are like the watch pictures and the rolls of cash, because that is the most standard influencer move. You tend to see this on TikTok a lot more than twitter. 

15:46 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Maybe that's why it's ruffling feathers a little bit more as well it's also, it's the house picks that get me thinking like it's no, there's no way it's real I I do agree with that but he's also selfies like yeah, he's betting a very small amount of money for this type of influencer. 

16:00 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Like normally, this type of influencer is trying to show that they're betting like 50 grand, 100 grand, like sean perry showing 200 grand. So this is like this role, like to have the watch in the cash and to bet three grand is like that's a bit inconsistent to me of like I just think this is all probably a cash grab to for a touting service. 

16:18 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Is anyone a big watch guy? Do we know the approximate value of that watch? 

16:22 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
no idea no, no neither do I, is up. Is this the cushion here ripped in the car? I just kind of noticed this. 

16:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Wow, good that could be a crumpled up receipt that could be a losing that could be a losing I don't know, I'm just yeah, I just noticed that it does kind of look like it could be a rip as well. 

16:44 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
That's within the realm of possibility. Now that Jacob has pointed it out Most likely a crumpled piece of paper. 

16:49 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, I think that's like a crumpled receipt. You shouldn't touch receipts apparently. Also, I'm sure, people have noticed, oh I didn't mean to go that route. You shouldn't touch these On receipts. Listen, let's move along, Please. Let's move along. 

17:17 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Well, I'm stuck here now. You're not supposed to touch receipts. 

17:21 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, you're supposed to touch them, but there's some chemicals in receipt paper that apparently are being proven to be bad for your balls. 

17:29 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Sounds like a class action lawsuit. If you ask me if we've been given receipts our whole lives that are bad for testicles, that would seem like a real problem, Would it not? I'd agree. And they keep printing them out, but they're putting warnings on them now, like find some new paper? I don't understand, get a digital copy. 

17:44 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Yeah, so it's coated with a layer that contains BPA, apparently. 

17:49 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Don't ask me why I'm here, why I said anything. Let's just, can we? Let's go. 

17:52 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I agree, let's go. 

17:54 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I agree, I'm gonna get to the bottom of this. 

18:00 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Don't worry about touching receipts all exactly so don't worry about it well, I wasn't I mean grp's got that notebook in his hands all day long. 

18:09 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
What about notebook paper? Does it extend? 

18:11 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
to that. 

18:11 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I think notebook paper's okay yeah um, we're gonna get to the bottom of this at some point or another. It is kind of like a mini upset. I actually am somewhat obsessed with that guy. I see every single one of his tweets the the tweet where he was at the Golden Knights game with his celebrating in the aisles, going nuts had someone recording him. It is such influencer behavior, but he also, like you said, influencer satire. 

18:38
It could be some satire mockumentary of influencer it could easily be a mockumentary On Twitter, though, though it could be, because he he followed me very quickly. I will say yeah, this is. 

18:52 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He's following all, like you said leading off this show, like check mark bless. He's like on his things he's going to accomplish quickly. 

19:00 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, good for him because if you, if you just stumble into gambling twitter and you create a new account, you're going to be led by by x down the path of like, book it trend yes, the more yeah, more recreational side and he very early followed a lot of the sharp side. You know he knows that circa is respected in the sportsbook space enough to record videos there and tag Jeff Benson and tag Benson. Introduce himself to Benson on video. Something is weird about this whole situation. Something stinks. 

19:38 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I agree. 

19:39 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Something real stinks. Speaking of something that's stuck New Year's Day real stinks um. Speaking of something that stuck um new year's day at night, ohio state is throttling oregon brett mcmurphy college football. Uh reporter slash insider for action network has like uh 300k plus followers, tweets out projected point spread for cb cfb playoff cotton bowl game semi-final via call-in one, call-in one being call-in wilson texas minus two against ohio state. I don't know anything about college football personally I mean I. 

20:22
I did know that ohio state had better title odds so I looked at that right away. I'm like that's a little bit weird. Then I saw the results like the reaction start to roll in here, right, so we got jeff benson, lol spelt out. Uh, tailgate tent. There's no way this is real. Oh my god, lol, tailgate tent. A good college football, better dan's picks. Is colin taking bets at this number? Ct bets asks brett who tweeted it. Are you drunk, brett? And this became a huge thing that night. Now, that particular night, what happens is prime sportsbook, another sharp sportsbook circa. They actually opened the game at ohio state minus six. So eight point difference from what colin projected. That is a bad luck, with Texas minus two. 

21:04
Now Colin has gone back after the fact and deleted a lot of the he was responding to people individually, quote tweeting people. He's deleted a lot of those I was following the night of. I know Colin. I haven't talked to Colin in a long time but I used to talk to him pretty regularly in the early stages of gambling Twitter. I was introduced to Colin via Preston Johnson Sports Cheetah, who now owns Crawley Town third division English soccer or something like that. I've played blackjack with Colin at the Wynn in Vegas. We had a great session. I actually really liked the guy, but I thought it was a really bad look for him that particular night. And to me is like a very deep rooted systemic problem with people in gambling Twitter, where there's just this refusal to just say like I was wrong. 

22:00
You know, I think all of this could have just blown over immediately instead of I'll honestly call it reputational damage maybe not from the people that Colin cares about. 

22:21 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But I actually do think that there's like massive reputational damage suffered by putting that opener out there and then just not acknowledging the fact that you got it and then like fighting, picking, like fights, with people calling you out for that. I mean, I feel like I said this to you off air. Colin blew it big time, because apologizing is hard, no doubt, like sometimes hard to swallow your pride. Admit you're wrong. We've kind of all been there, yeah, but this was New Year's Day. You don't have an out like this to be wrong. Much in the year you could say anything. I was out last night. I'm sorry, I missed something in my model, like my head's in the clouds. My in-laws are still here from the holidays. You have so many like outs while you're like backtracking, yeah, to be like I was wrong. 

23:02 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I got got sorry, like total mess yeah but instead he just sort of like wanted to flex on people who were saying I don't think I mean they were probably ruder about it, but pretty much telling him that he had this one wrong yeah, and and this is classic action network like they, we've had this conversation with another Action Network post on their show of it was the total that was 224 and a half, good to like 210. Yep, this is very much in the same range of they don't know, they masquerade as experts but aren't. 

23:36 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And what happened? There is Brent, who is, I believe, espn or longtime CBS, like a true college football insider. Yeah, like listen, jobs in media suck these days. Yeah, Obviously, I'm sure somewhere along the way is cutting costs. He ends up at Action Network to be like an insider who's starting who's out, yeah, all these sorts of things. And he is like okay, I work at Action Network, I'm going to ask an Action Network betting guy. Of course I'm going to stay in the family and get the betting guy. I don't even mean to use quotations to call it. 

24:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It would have been Colin or Stucky Get their opinion. 

24:12 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Call him replies first. Stucky's probably still enjoying his New Year's Eve. Whatever, that's the tweet he goes with, and Brett just eats it. 

24:23 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Look at that man One million. Yeah, brett got fucked. Look at that man One million views. He got absolutely One million views, yeah. 

24:29 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
It's like maybe Brett should know better, but not really no. 

24:33 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Why should he? He's in media and he's like I work in action. They know the betting stuff. I'm asking the betting guy in action for my number. 

24:40 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Way worse. Look for Colin. If Colin had tweeted it it would look way worse than the fact that brett tweeted it. Thank god he said via colin, because it would have been the worst. Look for brett if he had just tweeted it saying projected line minus two for texas. Yeah, listen I I wonder. 

24:57 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He is a college football insider? He's not a betting guy. He's not a betting guy. 

25:02 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Brett is not a betting guy, despite working at action network. Yes, I don't know if now, because you were I don't know if, because now he works at action, they have him making like a weekly pics article I'm not sure I don't have I don't follow up that closely. But he's not a betting guy. He's like a lot of people who were like real reporters who have now gotten sucked into like neat. You know, betting is where there's paychecks. 

25:25 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, so like I follow Colin on Twitter Like I said, I used to interact with Colin really regularly I saw that tweet and didn't see the responses right away. I just saw that tweet and my first inclination was like let me check the title odds. This like doesn't seem to jive with me. And Ohio State was favored over. They had shorter title odds than Texas. So naturally, first thing I'm thinking is like there's no way that this could possibly be right. Ohio state's gonna have to be favored in the game. If they have shorter title title odds, they're gonna play each other this. This is that's gotta happen. But but I I don't echo like everything that you were saying about action network. So I just want to make that abundantly clear. People do hashtag us circle back on a lot of Action Network stuff. I think there's a lot of pretenders in the space I'm very vocal about that. You guys know specifically who I'm talking about, without even mentioning his name that works for the Action Network. I actually like some people that work for the Action Network. 

26:21 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Me too, sean Kerner, me too. I people that work for the action network, I love me too. 

26:24 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I think he's fantastic. I follow all this stuff so I don't want to make turn this into like an action network thing, but but it is a pattern, just saying there. There is not a scenario I'm I'm a big nfl, better I'm a big nhl better. You're a big nba, better we do well betting those sports. That's kind of like. People are always like oh, why is kirk evans on the show? Kirk is a very, very good nba better people want to move his action in the space. He does a really good job and his opinions. 

26:48
So, but if we, were asked to put a number on a game in our sports that we follow really closely. I am never never nfl game, a football game, gonna be eight points off a huge game on a big game on a huge standalone game. 

27:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
This be like you getting being eight points off on the nfc championship like no, no, if I am off by a lot, I can guarantee your inputs are wrong. 

27:16 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
No, but I can guarantee you that the market is going to move towards my number like I feel. I bet it if I'm off, not by eight points. I'm not off by eight points in an NFL spread but if I'm doing a spread show on Sunday night with Clive on Forward Progress and we're looking towards the openers for next week and I'm like no, no, no, this doesn't make sense. There's been times where I'm like, oh, this total 48 is a joke. We're betting under it closes 44 and a half. 

27:40
Move towards my number almost 100 of the time, unless there's like some late week injury stuff, right, you never be there that. But that's my point, right? That's why it is first of all the. The. It's a. It's a really bad look from anyone who knows anything about sports betting to have someone put out an opener that's that far off. It's then compounded so much more by the refusal to just say I put out a bad number. I actually will bet texas in the game at the the market opener, but obviously texas should not have been a my, a two-point favorite I'll go even further than what you said. 

28:17 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Not only will our numbers never be eight off. Yeah, when I'm watching football on sunday with my friends who just casually bet, oftentimes we'll play like the Bill Simmons game of like what's the opener. No one is ever eight points off and these are losing bettors who don't know much about football. They will never be eight points off on a spread. 

28:42 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
A little bit of apples to oranges, because college football has fair teams and there's like a wider disparity among these teams. Talent disc discrepancies yeah, they're two of the top. 

28:47 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
What five teams in the country? It's not. It's not like we're again is this even a conversation? 

28:52 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
if he just like, no like walked it back quickly, well, I, I and I'm I'm purely speculating on this. 

29:00 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
We have the, the graphic at the beginning of the show that goes up, that our legal department suggests it's pure speculation. But when I was going through the replies that night I thought to myself I'm like, I think Colin's drunk, I think he's been drinking a lot, he's just getting into it and Kanish said it. Like to be honest. I prefer the Colin Wilson projections. After eight, whiskey sours makes for better content. That was when Colin tweeted out the Orange Bowl line, Notre Dame and Penn State, and that's another out. 

29:25 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
There's outs. New Year's Day, you can screw up. You have an out. You have lies of outs, you don't have to be true. You have fallback outs that I can now use. This is in my back pocket. Even say, boys, I got after it, I miss that. 

29:43 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I don't know. That's it Done. What was he saying in those replies? 

29:46 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
oh, well, he was going off. 

29:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Well, first of all, I saw him flex on someone that like his college football, betting his bottom boats and broncos I saw that one. 

29:56 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I saw that I was. I forgot about that but he wasn't like doubling down on his number and he was saying that people were then asking, like where can I bet this with you, or whatever? And then he was saying like, if you want to make a bet on the game, like hit me up this and that or whatever. But he was never willing to really take a bet at minus two, I like colin. 

30:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean, I only know him through twitter. I don't know him at all period. I've never, like he's never come across as like phone, like obviously this is a bad and being that wrong isn't like good, but I've like, I've always enjoyed or interacting, so this is, I don't know. 

30:28 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I feel the the. The rundown for today's show was actually tough for me because I knew that I was gonna have to go in on some people that I like, but it's the purpose of the show, like I have to be real, like if it was my, if it was my best friend that put that out, I would still roast him. That's what people need to understand, because you can't. 

30:46
You cannot put that out and then defend it. You simply can't. And in the spirit of that conversation was Colin Wilson versus everyone Plus EV Analytics versus everyone. If you've been watching Circles Off on YouTube for years, you're probably familiar with Plus EV Analytics. He's been in studio with me a couple of times. He did a Q&A with me as well. We had him as a guest recently where he talked about his lawsuit against Caesar Sportsbook, which I honestly cannot believe that they did not rule in his favor on that Agreed A complete and absolute joke, but you might have had some introduction to Plus EV Analytics. 

31:24
Now he tweeted a screenshot of low VIG. Low VIG is an offshore sports book affiliated with bet online that offers low VIG and he says yesterday I was mildly annoyed at low VIG for limiting me to $1 on parlays. Now I'm a little more peeved to see that they've been short paying parlays all along. He posts a two game parlay, says it should have paid plus 274. Instead they pay plus 254 on that. Now some context here. I don't think I'm saying this. Um, I don't think this is false. It's my opinion, but I don't think it's false. 

31:59
Plus ev analytics is not widely liked in the sports betting community, the sharper sports betting community. He then goes on the next day I'll just fill in a little bit more here. He sees other sports books around that are offering reduced juice and whatever. Um noting again that he is limited on a parlay to a maximum of one us dollar, tweets that out again. Now the sharp betting community starts to come in here and say all right, what's going on here with plus ev? Frank for jolis, me and you interviewed frank for jolis, kirk, um, talking about parlay math, just kind of roasting him for a little bit. Broner, no reduced vig on small markets either. They do do what they got to do, you do what you got to do. So the whole notion of like they're a sports book, they're allowed to do what they want, you do what you need to do. 

32:51
Big Buck Hunter, who's a trader with no VIG, says you only get the reduced VIG on the straights. The information is less valuable when it's a parlay and to me I think there's some very good logic here, personally on my end. But Plus EV takes keeps going. Big Buck Hunters tweet, quote tweets. It says people who were going on yesterday about what's customary in the industry. How do you all feel about this? And to me this is where the biggest mistake was made, because you're not going to get people to change their opinions from yesterday. And brett farve 444 comes in. Brett farve is a very successful better. I feel grateful for the millions upon millions that they pay out. Low vig pays out to the sharp community each year. Your sense of entitlement is wild. Zach 99053 says plus ev tells him the goalposts haven't moved. Everyone has rejected your premise that you're owed an industry standard by offshore sportsbooks. 

33:57 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
You were kirk front and center in this entire conversation, as you usually are yes, so you mentioned there, I think, before we really get into the weeds of the actual low vig you mentioned, plus EV isn't liked, and I think that's a very important point to talk about. Okay, so I wouldn't say, at least me personally. It's not that I don't like plus EV as a person. I'm sure he's a good dad, seems like a nice guy, yep, seems like he does good things, but I don't like him. His role in the sports betting space and I think pretty much no big better who I've ever interacted with likes him His role in the space, not him as a person. Because this is the best comparison I could think of he is a business professor who's in a room with five entrepreneurs who built businesses and he's telling them how they should act and how they should be betting in this case, or how they should be building a business. We saw that in the Caesars lawsuit. He could maybe disagree with that. 

35:03
He's had countless tweets, including this one, that doesn't really show him as a big bettor, because if he was, he would realize that low vig is a sports book you would never go after. They're a company that doesn't ban you. They're offshore and they offer reduced vigs For them to be the book you're going after is just ridiculous and he's tweeted about like betting groups. He pretty much tweeted like people should do. Betting groups Like this is such a good idea. So I think it frustrates people that he acts like he is the expert in the space. He sold courses for thousands of dollars and he a very hard part about being a successful. Better is scaling, and once you take scaling out of your operation, it becomes much easier to win if you're betting $50 instead of $5,000, $50,000. So then to act like you're the expert in the industry when you take out that massive part is very frustrating. 

36:00 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So I will say this, because I know Plus EV well and I consider him a friend the, the, the level. When you say he's not considered to be a big better, right, that's, that's subjective. There's scales of betters. Right, like brett farve 444, he bets a lot more than I do and he would say, like I don't consider rob to be a big better, but then jeff would see what I don't agree, though you don't agree, I think farv would say you bet a lot of money, like objectively, even if he bets a lot more money than you possibly here's the thing with the plus ev. 

36:34
I saw you uh, I'll call it unit shaming him for the 50 that he sued caesars, and it was on a 50 bet bet at Caesars. Now I will say I saw the complete portfolio that he played that year. He wasn't betting $50 on that NFL win future. 

36:51 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
He had a bunch of $50. He had $50 at Caesars but he had like $1,000 on that future across multiple books and he spread it around across multiple books. 

37:00 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So people don't know that and he's constantly ripped for that. And I did want to defend him for that, because I've done work with Plus EV Analytics before. We bet some NHL same-game parlay stuff together and he's betting. He's betting 99th percentile in terms of now. He has a full-time job, he does really well with it, he has the money that he can afford to bet that, but he is betting. He does really well with it. You know he, he has the money that he can afford to bet that, but he is betting like. 

37:26
I don't like when people call him out for the lack of bet size. With this particular argument, though, the stubbornness is very apparent, and the his whole argument is like well, just because the sports books have always operated this way, have an open mind. This doesn't have to be the way that it is, but that's not rooted in reality. Like this is an offshore sports book that gives very fair prices to big bettors and most of us can take advantage of that. Plus ev is looking for some sort of edge shooting on parlays or something like that, which is another part of the criticism of that is typically his betting style. 

38:10 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
That's fine, that's fair. He finds good angles to bet, but the idea that he's entitled to that is just ridiculous. And the idea that you should go after Lovig again an offshore sportsbook that offers reduced juice and doesn't ban straight bettors Like that is maybe the 1,000th on the list of what you should be criticizing in the sportsbook world. 

38:34 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
If he hadn't got completely lambasted for this argument. This was something I would have actually responded to on Twitter. Knowing him as a friend, I was like, well, he's already hearing it from all angles. I could see he was getting frustrated because he's responding. Once people start responding to people and then like subtweeting the next day as well, you know that it's in their heads, right? So I'm like I'm just going to leave this alone. I feel like the guy. This is just my feeling in this moment, right now. You know what? This is a very drastic example. But someone commits murder, right? Okay, they've been found guilty of murder. We go to the sentencing hearing and there's like people lined up to be like, well, this person's actually not that bad of a person. Like, go light, don't give him the death penalty. I've known him for years. He's actually very kind-hearted guy. This is extreme example by the way. 

39:30
That's how I feel about plus ev in the community, right like I understand he has some really strong takes that are counterintuitive to what all of us other betters think. But I, I I see this guy regularly. I talk to him. He's very's very down to earth, normal in person. It's just like sometimes you just gotta know when to say this argument is not going to go anywhere in my favor. 

39:54 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I need to stop. Even on top of that, you also need to know to say okay. All these people who are very successful in this industry disagree with me on a lot of topics and have a problem with me. Maybe that's not all the 50 people who don't like you. Maybe that some some of the onus is on you. 

40:14 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Maybe I would just say like he takes a lot of heat, but is he not liked, or it's just like he's got a lot of contrarian like standalone opinions. 

40:26 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He's definitely contrarian, and I I think that's part of the reason. Though is most serious, sports bettors generally share the same opinions about the industry group think yeah, but it's not. Group think it's because we all live it right. 

40:45 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't have a full-time job to fall back on. Yeah, most bettors believe the offshore books don't owe you value parlay Exactly, and we all live it. 

40:52 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
But that's the criticism of Plessy V. We feel like he doesn't live it and he comments on it, but he doesn't live it. Yeah, he bets, but he doesn't live it. 

41:00 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He doesn't live it in the same but he tells us what we should think that's the frustration. 

41:06
I would tend to agree with you. I disagree with him on many things and it is what it is, but at some point you just got to say like maybe it's not worth it to have it out in this form anymore. Speaking of changing the rules, plus EV wants more limits on parlays. I've had a few situations in the last couple weeks where we've had people who want to change the rules when it comes to how sportsbooks pay out certain bets. So we had JJ Gruden in a conversation with funny enough, now that I see it Blesbets and Benson. 

41:45
Of course it would be these two guys. He says Jeff, why aren't minimum snap counts put on certain player props? I'm genuinely curious. I feel there's an integrity issue there. And then, of course, we got our favorite guy in the world, jeff's favorite guy, nick Wright, who comes out as well and says does this video calling on sportsbooks to do the right thing just have part of your house rules be? If you bet an underdog against the spread of three and a half points to five and a half points and that team loses by six in overtime, we will refund your wager, and this very much. Uh, I wanted to segue from the plus ev thing here, because these aren't the first times. You know people that are going to want to change the rules in the sports betting industry. I just feel like we've had the same rules forever that everyone knows and abides by. What is the point of ever changing any of these things like? What are we even arguing about at this point? 

42:50 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I could use some of those refunds I've gotten. Gotten a lot of these nfl overtimes, uh, denver denver comes to mind something else. Uh, atlanta on that sunday in washington both of those the same week. 

43:01
That was yeah, yeah, so I could I, I mean no, I don't actually agree with Nick. The sooner the Kansas City Chiefs dynasty ends, the sooner this fucking guy will be out of our lives. I love, even as a division rival like Mahomes, kelsey, alt-reed, the greatest, the best. I got no beef with them, but this rail rider of it I can't fucking stand. 

43:28 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
The only thing I think of when I see these tweets Is that in the coming years we're gonna have Insurance Like taking insurance on bets, where you're just they're selling you more juice. 

43:39 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Isn't regulation lines available, sort of Cut you off In some sports. I know in hockey. 

43:45 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, you could technically take overtime out of the equation. Yeah, you could bet three-way lines. 

43:52 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Injury insurance, though they could easily start selling. How has that not happened? It is surprising. 

43:58 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Like a full-year subscription for injury insurance or just being able to click a checkbox where they charge you more on the bet. 

44:05 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
But guess what? If your player gets injured on you're over, we'll refund your bet. How have they not? Because they're talking that they don't do that I mean the fans the fans wouldn't pay for it. 

44:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They just asked for it for free after the fact. 

44:17 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
But if they implemented that, then people couldn't attack them exactly without they could say well, we have the insurance. If you want it, you can pay for it yeah, I agree with jacob. 

44:25 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
If they implemented that, no one has any any leg to stand on and they would make more money off, like that's a rule. Well, that's the the comp. 

44:32 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Nobody is price sensitive yeah, exactly if you're asking for a refund on an injury, you're not price sensitive. It's like a one-to-one correlation. 

44:40 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
100 like and that just seems like a no-brainer to make some extra cash if you're a recreational sports book, because I'll tell you who's going to click that button jj gruden the jj gruden is going to click that button. Any. The vast majority of people. It's the same people who buy points and they don't understand. They're like well, I just want, I want to get the hook. It's like well, you're paying 25 cents for it and it's only worth 18. How can you not understand that Well? 

45:06 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
it's just people bet on a like. I see it all the time. People bet on a like. They're the way they think about bets. Is a bet to bet basis or a day-to-day basis? They don't think about over time, they just think about this bet winning, this bet losing or a winning day today. There is no concern whatsoever about the long-term profitability. It's all short-term oriented. That's why it's just in the moment. 

45:27 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
We see this all the time. And don't get me wrong, like I'm, I'm, I'm pretty square, but I'm I like to think I'm a sophisticated square, because these things, when you tell them to me, like, do resonate. But we've got a frat, we've got a frat. Like you can't put a price on the peace of mind of that $0.25. Well, we can. 

45:46 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Sorry, he cannot, he can't yes. 

45:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
The peace of mind that Dak. 

45:50 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Hook brings him yeah. 

45:52 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No. 

45:53 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He cannot actually help himself. He cannot. 

45:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
There is no. It just brings such peace of mind while he's sitting there stressing the game yes, Even if it's been proven meaningless, because the score is quickly, whether it's a failed two-point conversion or the key numbers are just blown out in the first quarter. The peace of mind that that half point at that surplus brings you can't put a price on. 

46:20 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He would rather lose thousands of dollars more in his life than bet a plus two and a half that loses by a field if that happened, he he could not like I would actually be concerned for his health as a human. If that happened to him like he would be, like what? How did I not fucking buy the point and buy the extra half point? And that's honest to God, truth. 

46:44 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
And that's the type of person who's clicking the box and getting minus 125 instead of minus 110 on an NFL player prop to get injury insurance. 

46:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's also someone who just wants to like survive the moment. It's like a coach where it's like I can extend this game by just kicking it down the road a little with this punt, instead of like going for this key moment right now. Well, that might decide the game. It's the right thing to do, but it like eliminates the last like seven minutes of intrigue in the game. I'm sure there's like an actual term for what I'm saying for you smarter guys, but it's just there is no price that being able to have the protection of that brings, but all that's doing is trying to kick the can down the road to save you, to allow to make your next bet. It's got no long-range planning and how that works in totality over the course of the NFL season. 

47:41 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I would love to be able to run an experiment on our mutual friends account and, just on a weekly basis, charge two cents more for a half point. Like, just keep jacking it up Just to see what the actual threshold is before he says like I am not buying from six and a half to seven because this is getting ridiculous. Now it's minus one. 

48:02 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
At a certain point then he just wouldn't bet it at all. I think when it reaches that threshold of he's no longer buying the points you take the money line, but he just would not, I think, I think he would stop, and he'd actually bet the six and a half. 

48:14 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
But if it, if it ended on seven he would blame the sports. 

48:19
He'd be like what the fuck? It's like that. That's how it has to. Has to happen. But I do want to go back quickly to JJ Gruden's comment, because he actually mentioned integrity in his, which I thought was interesting. So JJ Gruden said you know, refund on all Drake May props, please. That's what started this entire conversation. Drake May got hit with being evaluated for a concussion, left the game. This is like standard practice nowadays. It's actually hysterical in real time. Try this in real time, if you haven't already when you watch a player, leave a game. 

48:51 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Search that player's name with. 

48:52 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Twitter with void with void and watch how many people void or refund. They're always in there. But he did say why aren't minimum snap counts put on certain player props? He did say why aren't minimum snap counts put on certain player props. I feel like that's an integrity issue there. There, I do get that point of view, like thinking that, okay, you know that there could be someone in theory I'm not saying it's, it's gonna happen or does happen but there could be a player who bets a player prop under, for example, and, let's say, goes out and plays one snap and fakes an injury yeah, but like that problem always exists, if, what if it was 10 snaps? 

49:32 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
when he plays 10 snaps and intentionally doesn't get the ball, intentionally goes down like there's all that. Like that potential integrity issue to me is always there. 

49:41 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Yeah, this is just people bitching about injuries yeah, there is a minimum snap count. We said it it's one, it's one, it's one. There is a minimum. There is a minimum snap count if he gets in the gate. 

49:50 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
That's just always been the rules and I honestly would never change that, but I did find that I thought about it. I'm like you know what makes sense. But you're right, it's the exact same problem. 

49:59 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I'll make it because we it hasn't been made crystal clear to anybody who's not familiar with these topics as much, who maybe is stumbling on this If there were minimum snap counts, if they did void for injuries, it would be priced in. You would get a worse price on your bet. Yes, that's why they don't have it. You're paying for your bet with understanding that this could happen. 

50:21 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, and also we have the. Jonte Porter issue. It's not like he checked into the game, played for one second and left. 

50:25 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Actually he played he did that a few times, like three minutes. 

50:28 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
He did do that actually yeah, yeah, I guess that's true he did but he played a lot. I guess it depends on which games they were betting on which there was one. 

50:37 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
He um allegedly faked an eye injury to get out of the game. Yeah, yeah, I guess there were those. 

50:41 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
But so, like in the uk, I'm almost certain that there's like a, a governing body, um, like, like. Essentially, regulators have access to real-time bets and data like that's how they can spot when a fourth division italian soccer game is getting fixed. 

50:58
They know tennis or something yeah, they see like some bet patterns. We don't have that in north america yet. It feels like that solves that problem right, because if somebody saw in real time well, wait a minute, like all these bets are coming in at draft kings on jonte porter unders, maybe there's something going on here then he leaves with jonte porter is the most bet player of the night, like there should. I just don't think the real time reporting is good enough. 

51:21 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
They did find that in the end they did. 

51:23 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
They maybe found it on like the third or fourth time. 

51:25 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah. 

51:27 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
If we're digging into it a little bit further. You may have noticed off the top of the show, we have a new sponsor here on Circles Off. I'm going to tell you more about them. Today's episode of Circle Back is brought to you by our new sponsor, underdog. Now I'll be honest with you. This partnership might surprise some of you, especially those of you who know that we've typically worked with Sharp Sportsbook partners in the past. But let me tell you why I'm genuinely excited about this partnership with underdog. 

51:54
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52:19
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53:08
Now back to the show. All right back here for the latter half of the show. As a reminder, hashtag circle back on Twitter. If you want us to talk about any of those topics. I review them every single week, every single one of them, before I put together the script for the show. As as a reminder, comments help. Let us know what you think about the show on any particular topic. Topic and if you haven't smashed that like button down below yet, smash that like button as well. It goes a long way to helping people find us in the youtube algorithm. 

53:35
Uh, breaking news draft kings users can now buy better parlay odds via subscription. The new 20 a month product, sportsbook plus, is being tested in new york. It will nudge users to the types of bets that are most lucrative for draft kings, obviously, that being uh, parlays. There's an article attached to this. I'm not going to go through the details of it. Obviously, within um the community, that's quite. This was not received super well. We got Uncle K, joey Knish. Imagine telling your wife when she asks what this monthly subscription cost is on the card it's for better DraftKings, parlay boost thoughts, which I found to be hilarious. Ian McMillan says if you use Sportsbook Plus the right way to actually have an edge, they'll still ban you anyways. Probably true. What was your initial reaction to finding out there's going to potentially be a paid product to boost? 

54:31 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
parlay odds. I just don't know what person this is designed for. The people DraftKings want to be betting are the ones who don't really care so much about the parlay odds and don't know what the good odds are or bad odds odds are, and the ones who use it and take advantage of it are just going to get limited. 

54:50
So like yeah peanut butter said it's best. I thought like they want people to be not price sensitive and now they're introducing a product that says be price sensitive. I just don't get it, I mean peanut butter nails it. 

55:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I can't wait for, like you to get your hands on this sucker, and or you and your elk, and like you're gonna teach them a lesson, I think I? 

55:15 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I don't know that that's the case. They're they're. They are known for limited limiting quite quickly. I think they're gonna probably have some sort of detection in place to see you know if people are. I don't know the full details of this and how it's going to work. I'm very interested in seeing this and, by the way, I will pay for a subscription in the early going if it's available in Ontario. 

55:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
If it's a thing I'd love to do the most, I absolutely would pay for a subscription that, like gave me, across the board, better odds all year long. Even though that might be a losing proposition, I'm good. This is what I'm getting at. 

55:46 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I swear to God I think I would. So this is what I'm getting at here. Okay, so Jeff represents more of the recreational community, calls himself a sophisticated square on the show here, but I actually disagree with you, kirk, and Mr Peanut better here, because the sticking point at the end of this tweet is why spend so much time trying to make people non-price sensitive, to introduce a product that points out your odds suck? And I actually don't think that that's the case. I don't. I think people are going to get excited about the possibility of getting better odds on their parlay. I actually think this will be a money maker for draft kings. I think the the price sensitivity is so far gone at this point and it's like not even a thing. 

56:30
What is the cat you know? I think, about my group of friends seeing something like this. Their initial reaction is going to be like it's not going to be well. We've been getting fleeced on these parlays the whole time. We should have been playing better prices. That's not going to be their reaction. Their reaction is going to be like fuck, now, instead of this parlay paying $2,000, it can pay $3,000 and all I got to pay is $20 a month. That's going to be worth it if I hit one of those parlays over the course of the year. 

56:59 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
That's what I think their reaction will be. I don't really care how much their parlay is paying out. I don't think people will spend $20 to get a little bit of extra. 

57:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Well, I don't know what they're actually getting. 

57:12 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Yeah, that's a good question. 

57:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So that's like a great unknown here and I don't know what. Like you said, everyone's got their favorite sort of thing they like to bet. If it includes juicing up NBA prop odds, I'm sure Kirk's going to find a way to try to take advantage of that. Sure, but every rec sports book, we're all going to find a way to take advantage of it, but for $20, whatever yeah it would definitely be worth it if you're winning. 

57:38 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
But again, yeah, it just depends on how quick the limiting is and some people Rob. 

57:42 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
you're not wrong, like okay $20, $20. People are like oh, $240 a month. I make so many deposits a year, I won't miss $240 subscription. 

57:52 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Well, we just talked in the previous segment about JJ Gruden and I'll use him as the example. Right Like, jj Gruden came on and debated Jeff Benson on circles off you. He has no idea what he's doing when it comes to sports betting zero clue. Thinks he's a winning sports better, right, people like that the vast majority of rec bettors who are in la la land think that they're going to win in the long run. Even when they lose, they convince themselves they're going to win in the long run. 

58:16
The thought of getting more money on a part. They will justify the $20 a month by telling themselves like all I have to do is hit one parlay this month. That is the justification. I actually think it's a very good business move. Now we want to talk about ethics and morality of like serving one set of odds to one customer base and then one set to the other. I I can see an issue with that from a ethics point of view, but these companies are not running like ethical ethical you know I mean again, it's all a matter of like what you're getting. 

58:50 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But like upselling customers for things is like common. I'm gonna go to a car wash today, sure, gonna pay x, or if I want to pay five bucks more, you're gonna do the undercarriage and I'll get the turtle wax, like yeah, but okay, let's well, but let's spin it on his head in the sports betting space, right? 

59:07 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
If we're going to the car wash together, jeff, they're not saying well, jeff, you can only spend $100 at this car wash, but Rob can spend $1,000. And that's like a limiting conversation. This exists in the sports betting space, where people are definitely treated unfairly and this will probably happen with us. Yeah, of course you know, me and Kirk go in there and we're like, oh fuck, like we can get these parlays down for big time money that are plus. 

59:28 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Listen, you get a. We're going to be treated like to the door. You take advantage of some deal at Best Buy because they mispriced something. Yeah, they're not telling you Right. Never fucking come back here again. 

59:39 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
We don't want your fucking business. 

59:40 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You loser Next time you need to buy a computer. Don't you dare come here. You got us. We didn't mean to sell you that at that price. Don't you dare walk in here again, Right. 

59:51 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I will say I don't really agree with you. My prediction would be this never goes past whatever testing phase and it never goes wide. 

59:59 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's like the other thing they did the tax. Yeah, yeah. 

01:00:01 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Most of thing they did, the tax, yeah, yeah. Most of these things just never see the light of the light of day. 

01:00:03 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I would be surprised which makes you wonder to peanuts point like what the fuck is robbins and co like doing? 

01:00:10 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
well, there's so much taking shot but there's so much pressure on him. 

01:00:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Like there's a board of directors there, they're shareholders, they're not like how goofy are the ideas that get rejected is sort of my point. These are supposed to be bright people that like built things, that are smart, that are investing in a lot of companies. More successes than failures. 

01:00:29 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I mean Kirk's insurance idea. I mean, I'm not exaggerating. I think that would generate like nine figures. 

01:00:37 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I don't know why they would do this. 

01:00:40 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Charging 20 bucks a month. This is what rolls out. You wonder what doesn't make it out of those meetings. 

01:00:47 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
But also, if we go back to the original tweet I didn't give credit to who tweeted this out, but I think that Ibn Novi Williams tweeted this out originally he did say it will nudge users to the types of bets that are most lucrative for DraftKings. That factors into the equation as well. There, it will nudge users to the bet the types of bets that are most lucrative for drafting. That factors into the equation as well. Right, there is a push towards parlays because the book is going to hold more on parlay. So that could also be just another type of situation where they're trying to gear, you know send certain bettors towards that it's twenty dollars a month and they're actually funneling you to worse bets. 

01:01:23 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Exactly that's at least their goal, but I just don't think it's gonna happen, would be my prediction yeah, I was saying earlier with like people I I know they're, I don't think they're betting enough to think this is lucrative. But like, like rob you were saying your friends would like this, like how much would they put on a parlay? 

01:01:39 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
not in any unit shaming conversation, but like probably betting like maybe honestly between 10 and 20 bucks a day, and most of the bets would be parlays, sgps in specific. 

01:01:51 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
So do you really think that they could justify spending $20? Yeah, they could, If they see. 

01:01:57 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I only need to win one parlay. Like the boost pays for the whole year. 

01:02:00 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
And I'm going to hit more than one parlay. 

01:02:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's actually simple math for the casual to see that maybe this is worth it. They're not saying it is it's, and they're like breakdown, yeah, of betting or how they make their own, like apologies or or defenses for things they're doing. I could see it's actually a really simple sell. 

01:02:19 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So another like wreck. Behavior that I see amongst my group of friends is all placing the same bets together right, cooking up a parlay together. Yeah, buddy what's gonna happen when, uh, when, your four buddies cook up a parlay together and three of them get 10 bucks to pay 100 and the other guy gets 10 bucks to pay 130 and he's? 

01:02:36 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
laughing. They all pull their money together and put it on one account no, but you share the subscription but yeah, I wonder how that's gonna work. 

01:02:43 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
we're gonna to have a Netflix situation with people logging in from like 17 different IP addresses to share a Parlay Plus Sportsbook Plus subscription. I'll be interested to see how it plays out. Honestly, I kind of like when stuff like this happens, because it's just talking points for us for one, but also it gives me a good gauge of where the leaders at the top tables are not necessarily that where the market is at as a whole, because I I do have a, a prevailing theory. It's kind of the way we built the hammer was. 

01:03:19
The thought was, five to ten years from now, more people are going to be seeking out trusted sports betting content, sharp sports betting content, and not necessarily sharp in the sense you bet everything, you're going to win. But hearing from people who actually win and at some period in time, people are going to lose enough money that they are going to naturally be forced to become price sensitive, and the only reason I say that is because I lived that experience personally. So maybe, maybe it's not going to happen and we're not going to see the scales tip, but my thought is, at some point you can only take so much losing before you say this this is not working and products like this, if they succeed, it's it kind of just goes to show that we're still at the state that I thought we were five years ago, where and it probably will be honestly, sadly, I haven't seen a huge change in um. In fact, like the more I watch tiktok videos and instagram reels and stuff like that, it it makes me sad. 

01:04:22 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Well, the channel's growing Circles Off is growing, so maybe there is hope. 

01:04:28 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Some people are subscribing here. It's true, like the positivity Jacob, I'll flip from positivity to negativity real quick, as I've been known to do. Nfl Incentive Week got to be one of my least favorite weeks of the year. It's the final week of the regular season now. For some context, years ago uh, I want to say five years ago, I'm just roughly estimating there was a pretty good I'll call it a hidden edge in the sharp community from people like hitman, who was really good with this stuff, that would seek out these incentives behind the scenes and they would bet them and make a lot of money. 

01:05:05
And the final week of the NFL regular season, from a props perspective, was like a moneymaker because so many of these players were priced like they were for the rest of the year when they all had incentives to hit and you could hit some overs, make a lot of money. I think Sal Vitry was the first person that went out and started to publicly tweet about the incentives. And now it's this huge thing and we have everybody putting together everyone with a following, putting together some sort of incentives list for the final week of the regular season, saying you have a massive opportunity to make. You know when sal put out this thread this week, there weren't even lines up yet on literally not even lines that you can bet into. And he's saying you got to go and bet this player prop over without even knowing the numbers. 

01:05:56
And now it's gotten to the point where I actually agonize Like I'm in physical pain when I see this type of stuff and I wonder if I'm just like being completely over the top with this type of reaction. I know Hitman is like voice this pretty vocally as well. I just I feel like there's always something that gets put out there. Market catches up to it. It's no longer an edge because everyone knows about it and then it gets fucking beaten to oblivion by the biggest influencers in the space. And I think what? What I find particularly frustrating about this is I got to hear all my friends talk about this on a weekly basis and someone hits their player incentive over and they're like I told you, it matters, it means something, and this and that, and I don't know how much longer I could possibly do this. 

01:06:55 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean, this is just like it's just the natural evolution of a the sports books getting bigger, props getting bigger the like community or thought exchange that can happen on social media. Like it's annoying. But like Hitman, he's a smart guy so he had to see this like dwindling and five years ago he had to know in five years, like there's probably no chance that this is going to exist. I do not. I would say I find these threads so fucking annoying. I find my friends, as you mentioned, we're watching ball, like they're caught up in this shit as if they just discovered it. It's really annoying. But that's like I'm perpetually online and love football, so like that's my fault for being annoyed by it. But I don't have sympathy for like the pros who now, like lose their chance to bust some loads. I don't not have sympathy for that aspect of it while simultaneously being annoyed as fuck about these stuff. 

01:07:57 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I think you can see why everyone tweets it. Both these streets have massive engagement 3.3 million views on Alex Caruso's tweet he was late to the party. 

01:08:04 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He was even early he did this. 

01:08:06 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He did this right at the end. Actually, if we take a look at the next slide here really quickly, I think someone pointed that out. So, michael fiddle fiddles picks, here are 17 best bets from sal. However, there are no best bets listed, no odds given, no book named. He gives out Mike Evans over 88 and a half receiving yards. That's non-existent. It never opened there. 

01:08:27 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
It was never there anywhere and he landed on 90, I'm pretty sure. 

01:08:30 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yes, so are we supposed to pay Vig for an outline and move it down? This is horrendous advice. There's still no price to understand it. Locky Lockerson, sorry yeah. 

01:08:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Ne, no price to understand it Lockie Lockerson. 

01:08:42 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
sorry, yeah, newy Newy Newy Eerson. I love how he changes his name all the time. Ken Barkley being the last person to sell this to people after thousands of influencers and even DraftKings themselves, is tremendous. Like no, no, no, guys, you don't understand. There are incentives. It's ridiculous now. 

01:08:56 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, this is like a long line of things, like in terms of market efficiency. I would say you know, an average prop, an average spread, hasn't gotten that much more efficient in the last two, three years, like open to close. 

01:09:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But you know, incentives, yep, drafts, yep um teasers first, touchdown, I would say, maybe not to that extent, but the life has just been squeezed out of it. 

01:09:26 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
All the really low-hanging fruit. Those are the things that have become like those don't really exist anymore in the industry. 

01:09:34 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So I tweeted about this this weekend as well, but then I got all these responses of like no, there still is an edge, just bet all the unders. And I'm like I don't want to do that either. No, you should, but you shouldn't do this when you're bet right. You might have some hypothesis on an individual basis. 

01:09:49 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, there might be an under there's can I tell you I had a friend who got roasted I'm sure we all did on mike evans. Now what happened was he had significant FOMO because a bunch of us about a month ago, three weeks ago, fanduel put out a prop on him to get to this 1,000. Yeah, I think it was the week after the Bucs played the Chargers. I kind of saw it with my own eyes, like we are doing this, they are doing this, it is a goal, right. So going into yesterday, we all had the 88 or whatever the actual number to hit 1,000 was. He felt the FOMO of wanting it and got in at the prop number which lost in that middle ground and it was like you guys all won, I lost, ha ha, but you missed the boat and your FOMO got the best of you, 100%, jacob. 

01:10:41 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Go back to the previous slide really quickly here, like. The point I want to make is that everything is relative to price, right, in sports betting everything is relative to the price. That's it at the end of the day, right? If I tell someone to go bet Eagles minus three and the number is four and a half, well, that's not what I told them to bet. I three and the number is four and a half. Well, that's not what I told them to bet. I told them to bet three. You don't necessarily bet four and a half because it's not an edge at that point. 

01:11:05
But if we look at these, like some of these examples outlined, right, kyler murray of the arizona cardinals can earn 750 000 if he achieves 50 rushing yards plus one rushing touchdown. Okay, so now people are going to go bet 50 plus rushing yards on an alternate line. His game total line is juiced up to 37 and a half, which you don't regularly see because of that, like it's built into the price rushing touchdown closed out like plus 120. He has mostly been lined at plus 300 in games this year. So again built into. Now. Hitman actually played a kyler murray rushing touchdown. I him why he read through a lot of beat writers and said like they're really talking about this. Maybe it's not factored enough into the price, but everything is actually relative to the price and the whole like blanket, do this, blanket, do that. It's so played out in sports betting. 

01:11:55 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It drives me insane. I mean, they were not letting you by the weekend, they were not letting you make the correlated parlays Correct, they were not letting you play. Like you know, if this result happened on Saturday, then that sets up the Sunday game by a certain. They said no, no, no, none of that, which they're entitled to do, of course, because they were good bats. Yeah, sure, they didn't want to take them anymore. 

01:12:17 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I saw some cases. I think like Tyler Lockett needed five receptions, some places like you could not bet exactly five. You could bet four, you could bet six, but you could not bet exactly five. 

01:12:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Chasing the incentives, I feel like a lot of them hit, but at the same time my mind's like you're going to get burned. 

01:12:37 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Well, the incentives may have hit, but not necessarily. 

01:12:40 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Correct. 

01:12:40 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
That's the big story. Mike Evans hit his incentives, geno Smith hit his incentives. 

01:12:44 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He made $6 million. He didn't hit his passing prop. 

01:12:46 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Mike Evans hit his incentive. 

01:12:47 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You're right, evans landed in the dead zone on the prop and listen, there are some guys that did hit, I think. Courtland Sutton did hit. The books are going to squeeze the life out of the middle ground between incentive and number 100%. 

01:13:02 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
If Saquon was going. For the record, he didn't play Saquon on Sunday. They chose to rest him. But if he was going, he needed what? 100-ish 17? 

01:13:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't know the exact number. 

01:13:14 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
If he needed 117 yards, it would have been 121. They would have put it at 130. Yeah, and people would be betting the over because of the incentive. What the like? Think about that. Logically, you would need him to have a huge run on his last run for you to hit that prop, because as soon as he hits that prop, he's coming out of the game right like evaluate them on an individual. 

01:13:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
but to your point, like the pros, like guys like hitman that are so on the ball with this shit, sure, they have lost the windfall of just free but, they're still finding ways to do this shit when you lose a big edge. 

01:13:51 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I can speak from experience it's extremely, extremely frustrating. The biggest edge I will ever have in my life that I don't have anymore was knowing the Super Bowl National Anthem title. 

01:14:02 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But every year you did it, you like, I like you'd almost joke this, probably the like, even before it became the last year every year you had for the last like six. You were like cherish this one, boys, like it could be dying at any moment and it took one guy who I think the super bowl was in tampa. 

01:14:19 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He recorded it from outside the stadium and posted it to Twitter. To, by the way, that one of the most infuriating days of my life, every recreational content creator was like oh, thank you so much for doing this, or whatever. I'm like you idiots, this is coming off the board now. You're not even going to be able to bet it. Thank you so much. And it got nuked till the end of time, and that was the big. So I don't remember who that guy was. 

01:14:47 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I remember his face. I don't know his name. I'll never forget that fucking face. I will never get over it. But no one should be mad. No one should feel bad At the same time, like when I said like I don't feel bad that a pro lost his week 18 windfalls, yeah sure I feel bad for myself. 

01:15:04 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you, jeff, I said it to you every time, you know, everybody has it All right. 

01:15:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Rob, I was a Super Bowl king I don't know how to put it. A Super Bowl king and their friends and their wives be like what do you mean? What are you doing? And it just be as simple as he fucking knows. Shut up, it's in, it knows. And then I'd spend like the you know before I'd start losing my bets walking around like a peacock. All the super bowl thanks to rob. 

01:15:34 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So my super bowl was decided on the national anthem every year. Like my wife would be like, okay, what are we rooting for now? Like it doesn't matter we're done. We've done and it got to the point when, 13 seconds under, I hit all there was alternate unders on the national and alternate lines no joke, it got so pure like my friends would be in there like sweating with the stopwatch. 

01:15:58 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm not even like watch, I'm like this game's. In five minutes I'm going outside for a smoke this is how like in the bag. This shit is yeah. I know I don't even need to watch it with you it's in the bag. 

01:16:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
But losing that, losing people, so I get it for hitman losing that. 

01:16:11 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
But remember if it wasn't exposed by that guy, somebody eventually yeah, another year, but one year can be a lot. You're right, could, could have been every year. 

01:16:20 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He also thought like I think about it in hindsight. He also was not nuanced enough to realize what he was doing. He thought he was doing good for everyone. He thought he wasn't doing it for engagement farming. He put it out there because he legitimately thought To like help people win free lunch. 

01:16:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Help people win Win free lunch. 

01:16:36 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
It's like warning people about Mikael Bridges playing. 

01:16:38 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, well, we'll get there, We'll get there. 

01:16:40 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It really outed it really, though outed like the people who don't understand how this space the people who were immediately in the replies of like thank you for posting. 

01:16:49
They've lost my respect for, like you just don't know what you're talking about. In terms of betting, incentive week, there's live betting. I will say that actually can be very viable for incentives. We all talk about it from like a pre-game perspective. Now the pre-game stuff is done, but, like you can see a lot, mike evans live is a perfect example where his numbers were adjusted down quite a bit and they were going to force feed him at the end of the game. You get him those numbers like that's an angle you can. 

01:17:14
So incentives matter, but incentives matter relative to the price just like everything else um, in the football conversation we're removed off of, uh, sam darnold shitting his pants on sunday night football against the detroit lions. But there's been an ongoing conversation, um, ever since mike florio tweeted this from pro football talk. The ap confirms that comeback player of the year votes for sam darnold will not be rejected even though they don't comply with the revised criteria for the award. So, going into the year, ap revised the criteria. They said basically you got to be coming back from something. You're not coming back from sucking, basically coming back from injury. That's what we want you to vote for. 

01:17:59
However, now as the year's gone on, darnold's been listed in markets all year and people are, you know they're saying you can vote for him. Jay Croucher, who I have a lot of respect for, um, I think he has some Sam Darnold comeback player of the year stuff. Shout it from the rooftops. Tell your congressman Sam Darnold is eligible to win comeback player of the year and is favored to do so. Now he's no longer favored post sunday night football but he's advocating for him. I bet, pal, the spreadsheet version virgin says the whole darnold's comeback player of the year situation is bullshit. Can't tell everyone he's ineligible and then just decide that he is two months later. 

01:18:38
I I understand where he's coming from, but and this whole thing's been a shit show, honestly whatever stating from the beginning of the year when people bet darnold and wanted refunds on darnold that are now live. 

01:18:53 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They're not asking for those refunds come back. Player of the year? It's never been I get. They tried to put the criteria. It is like the crack cocaine of not just like betting of like awards betting criteria. It is like the crack cocaine of not just like betting of like awards betting yeah, it is like betting on the dog races of of awards for any sport. So I feel no sympathy. The bullshit like you would play in that market. You want to swim in those waters like bullshit is open. Yeah, like it is, it is lanes of bullshit. Okay, so I don't stand for the spreadsheet Comment. The league, like DeMar Hamlin, broke them. They wanted him to win the award, they wanted to name the award after him. 

01:19:32 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
You're the only guy that didn't want him to win the award. 

01:19:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Well, other people did Okay, and now this is the problem. Everyone that voted for fucking your, you know Rivers came off a bad year won this sucker. Geno came off a bad year won this sucker Flacco from the clouds. So anyone who has spent the last couple years I gave my vote to Geno Smith you better goddamn believe Sam Darnold is worthy of my vote. Yes, okay, but my overall arching thought on this is just like Paulie market. Yeah, the books are right. What the books are doing is what is happening. The books didn't remove him because the books had a sense that people would still make him on ballots and ballots wouldn't get rejected. Yes, like, just like Paulie market. Ignore Paul, whatever. If you want to see how this thing is trending, you look at Pauly Market For this thing, the sports books, they're right again. I'm not saying he's going to win, but they had the instinct that like no, he's here, he belongs, he's not actually ineligible. 

01:20:44 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
These groupers that voted for Joe Flacco are going to have a hard time. Not like giving it to a guy who 10x Joe Flacco, yeah, yeah. Well, I do agree with you. It's definitely like a bit of a Fugazi Fugazi award, so bitching about it is just like you can't really do that you have no what you like to fucking stand on when it comes to comeback player of the year, but I also will say I don't think like it wasn't, I don't think it was criteria like you have to bet it was a guideline. 

01:21:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It was like take this path. We want you on this, exactly, exactly. We want you to take this road. If you want to detour no one, I guess you still have the right. 

01:21:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Well, this was talking about ad nauseum, before the season, where people were pointing out what the guidelines were, it wasn't okay, I would have never placed a sam darnold bet at any point in this season. I did? 

01:21:18
you were spooked by the criteria, because I'm spooked by the criteria, but that's my prerogative. That's how I'm handicapping the market right. These are two different things. You have the AP, associated Press, who they don't give a fuck about the betting markets. When it comes to this, now, in my opinion, it's pretty dumb that they put out guidelines instead of an actual set of criteria. 

01:21:37
Yes, like they should say, this is who's eligible, this is who is ineligible period the fact that the fact that it's like open to interpretation as to what you're voting on is is brain dead as it gets in my opinion. But that's an ap issue. From a sportsbook perspective, I think they did everything correctly. Sam darnold can get votes and he can win the award. They don't want him, they've. They've strictly. Ap has said we've the award. They don't want him, they've strictly. Ap has said we've set these guidelines. We don't want you to vote for him, but you can. I don't see what the problem is at that point. If people want to vote for Sam Darnold, it's their prerogative. If I had a vote, I would probably respect the sanctity of the guidelines that were laid out to me. And since Joe Burrow had such a fantastic year coming off, how many games did he miss? 

01:22:24 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Like the last six. 

01:22:25 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Barely. 

01:22:28 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I know, but your issue is with the award as a whole. 

01:22:31 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Sure, I'm still saying, sam Darnold still deserves Justin. 

01:22:33 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Herbert could be eligible for comeback play. 

01:22:35 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He broke his finger last year. He missed the last five games. 

01:22:37 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I know the award exists for stories like Alex Smith where it's like a really feel-good situation. 

01:22:45 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, but they didn't give it to a player who died on the field last year. Jacob, that's gone, it's out the window. 

01:22:50 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He died, he literally died, and last year they priced DeMar Hamlin like it was an Alex Smith situation. But what actually happened? 

01:22:57 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Players who contributed to their team actually winning games ended up playing roles, and those players had name equity, alex Smith, on top of almost not being able to ever walk again, came back and played pretty well. 

01:23:10 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
But offensive lineman Nick Gates suffered like a Right See. 

01:23:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
That would be a good example you remember that with the Giants. 

01:23:15 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He completely blew up his leg and he came back and played the next year. 

01:23:19 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
That's a nice comeback. He finished seventh in voting, I think, or something like that, jamar. 

01:23:23 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Hamlin becoming like an above average. Nfl safety is a separate conversation, but when he that whole incident happened, no one made it out Like he was just like a special teamer with a special team's future. Nowhere in the discourse of Hamlin was like this is a guy with like the ceiling to be a an above average. 

01:23:45 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I know so I actually I know, he doesn't deserve it to me. He should get two years of eligibility for dying well, you fans becoming famously said, if you recall, and why you didn't like the bar hamlin for comeback player of the year last year. You famously said all he had to do was wake up. There wasn't even like a rehab, he had to wake up. The man died on the field. How did that? Not him just coming? 

01:24:09 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
back to be able to play again. It's like you'd wake up and just Exactly, the award is so stupid? 

01:24:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, again, I'll make the polymarket point like the books, like wherever the money is feeling is probably is accurate, and they didn't budge and they're right. 

01:24:28 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I'll make a point. You're saying they left it up because they still think people can like people would vote for donald. I feel like they left it up because I know people would still bet it and I think both. 

01:24:37 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I think both. 

01:24:38 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
If they they remove guys who are like, but they also squish the number, where it wasn't like people were like it's not like it was a big number, didn't? 

01:24:46 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
GRP bet Darnold Preseason and people were roasting it. Yeah, at the preseason I said, george, I was like. 

01:24:52 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
George you didn't read that you aren't aware of the criteria. 

01:24:55 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
So Darnold's plus 190 now, and Burrow is minus 250. 

01:25:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm a Sam Darnold truther. I probably would have bet Sam Darnold at the first inkling of life in September, but I was spooked by the criteria. I still believe he should win. I have no action on this market. I don't actually give a fuck. 

01:25:21 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I think from a sportsbook perspective, you the responsibility or not the responsibility, but you should list as many options that you believe can actually win and he was never ineligible period he could win. I may have, if I go back in time, I may have said at one point he can't win and I was speaking from the perspective of like he's not going to get both. But we've seen as the year's gone, it's like the perfect year that played out for him, right, yeah, he, he had the year that he needed to have away the standard for which it was already being given. 

01:25:50 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He didn't like meet the standard of gino right from a couple years. He blew the doors off of the standard for which people have been voting this award and his biggest competitor is not making the playoffs, didn't make the playoffs as well. 

01:26:04 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Now whether or not that factors in, but he had the year everything aligned for Darnold to get votes and that's where we're at now. We'll end off on a number of things we missed over the course of the holidays. Again, we had two weeks in between shows, took the week off last week, gave everyone a little bit of extra time missed over the course of the holidays. Again we had two weeks in between shows, took the week off last week, gave everyone a little bit of extra time away for the holidays. But there was too much that that happened that we can't. We can't ignore and I just mentioned grp george riley panagakis. He gifted his mom 40 worth of lottery tickets and then tweeted the pictures of the tickets saying I never give up an edge. I want the chance to inherit the money for fucking christmas. 

01:26:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You know I like george, I'm an apologist. Anytime he can annoy you he'll win me right back. You know, like a shower hair looking good, all that stuff. If I had to take a notebook and power rank the most low rent george things, it is probably how he gifts his mother for christmas. 

01:27:12 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, this is one of the funniest tweets I've ever seen. His mother like. He lives with his mother. 

01:27:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He's dependent on her car. She's stranded at home as he's playing PLO. Okay, she can't go anywhere. 

01:27:29 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Again. He had just cashed a Travis Hunter Heisman future for like $7,500, and he blew $5,000 of that playing high-limit Omaha. And then he bought his mother $40 worth of lottery tickets. 

01:27:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And that's the gift. And they lost. They both lost. Of course they did, but this isn't like the stocking stuffer, to like a much nicer gift. This is the gift. 

01:27:52 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
That's the point made two weeks ago about the parlay as a gift, like your office Christmas party, like it'd be good as like an ancillary gift to the main gift. 

01:28:00 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's not your mother, that's. 

01:28:02 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Sheila in accounting, that's your mother not in the main Christmas party. It's an unacceptable gift, but it's so funny, it's actually so funny. 

01:28:12 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
It's kind of not funny, though really I don't think I disagree. 

01:28:16 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It's funny from the outside looking in, but then I think about it aware? 

01:28:20 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
yeah, do you think he's like aware of? 

01:28:21 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
like how low grade it makes him look. He's gonna be aware when he watches this show this is where already george. 

01:28:27 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
George is not just together. 

01:28:30 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I can't, I can't look at this and say this is not a bit he didn't even play the mega plier or the power play no, mega plier no power plate. I don't want a unit shame or anything. But he bets a lot of money. He's got more money to spend on a gift Like only 40, like, no matter what the gift was only $40 on your mom Posting breakfast and lunch slips His stinking dunking sweater is worth more than that fucking lottery ticket. 

01:29:00 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He could even get a gift where, like he is, obviously he's trying to be the beneficiary, he wants to inherit this money. But he could even get something like a kitchen, like a new toaster for which he gets to use. But, like mom, this is a gift, a gift like two lottery tickets, for if you're the power rank, like the, I think it'd be number one, unlike the george. This is worse. 

01:29:23 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Look, george we're trying to apply logic. Look at this picture his sweater is in the steak. 

01:29:29 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
We're gonna get to this in one second before we do. For those who watch or listen to our other content here on circles off, we have the flagship show of the station, which is called circles off, and we do a segment called plus EV Minus EV, every single week where we give out some Plus EV and Minus EV tips in life. I'll tell you this Big Time Minus EV is posting a lottery ticket publicly, because what's going to happen is people will inevitably play the same numbers as you and, should you actually cash, you are now diluting your winnings and splitting them with other people. It's no different than when you go get some Chinese food, they give you a fortune cookie. You got to read your fortune. They got the lottery tickets at the bottom. Do not play those lottery ticket numbers. So many people play those lottery ticket numbers because they think they're lucky and they've been mass produced. I just had to get that off my chest. Do not actually post the numbers publicly. Gray them out, do something. 

01:30:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Don't give someone the opportunity to play the exact same number. He had to flex on his great gift. 

01:30:31 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He could have done it. He could have graded that. Yeah, just put like a white sheet of paper over the numbers, that's it, I mean. It wouldn't. That's it, I mean it would have had the same effect. But anyways, we'll move on to the steak. The steak heard around the world um, my mom's more famous than that steak? 

01:30:46 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
that got replied in that circles off post oh, definitely, or johnny's steak I feel bad for john. 

01:30:50 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Johnny actually can cook a mean steak but the barbecue at the old uh office could not get to a high enough temperature to get a good sear on the outside, so he unfortunately got got massacred for that steak back in the day. 

01:31:06 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
That was a tough one for him. He got roasted more than his steak did. 

01:31:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, it was. I mean, it was a good. It was cooked well on the inside. He just didn't get that great sear that you're looking for. But Adrian Badgerowski tagged me in this tweet and essentially we got George, who's he's very much known for taking pictures of his food went out for a $95, I think, porterhouse, and it's taking a picture and as he's leaning over, his entire white sweater is in the plate of the steak. Now this gets posted. The best part about this whole thing I can't even say with a straight face is he then records a three minute video afterwards in the same white shirt with no stain, talking about how, like people were complaining about his shirt being in the steak, but it's actually clean. You can see that it's clean. There's no issues here. I honestly love them. It was really late in 2024. I think this might've been the tweet of the year. 

01:32:03 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah that that is an incredible tweet, like. 

01:32:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Jeff is actually dying here. I feel I gotta he can't breathe at this moment. This, this picture is so good I I actually have to print this. 

01:32:19 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
We got to put this up in the studio. 

01:32:25 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
This has to be a permanent, yeah it's not even like just touching, it's on top of. 

01:32:33 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
And then the video yeah, sorry, rob, you're looking for a photo to be framed behind you in the Circles Off studio on that brick wall. I think this might be a good contender. For sure that might be the one. 

01:32:43 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I might actually have to put it out A long time ago and I'm just going to completely rehash this a plus EV move that I gave out on Circles Off was always taking into consideration what you're wearing when ordering your food. Because white shirts sometimes like if you're going to have pasta or spaghetti or something. 

01:32:59 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Because white shirts sometimes like, if you're going to have pasta or spaghetti or something, snake is not a dangerous thing, but it's not. But it would apply to. 

01:33:03 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
GRP because he takes a picture. 

01:33:06 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
He should never wear a white shirt. He should never wear a loose white shirt. 

01:33:11 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
He can never hold his camera out quite far enough to sit up straight and get his food in the shot. He's always hunched in a little bit. 

01:33:18 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He also does it with two hands. You notice that, yeah. He doesn't do a one-handed selfie it's always two-handed. 

01:33:25 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
The lighting and the framework. It's never good, but one out of 100, there's this incredible. He frames it perfectly. There was a time he was at McDonald's and he had those golden arches through the window at the back of the video. It wasn't on purpose, but yes, yeah, he's a sloppy film. 

01:33:43 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It's a fluke. So, adrian, we didn't lead our rtmz show with george and his ability to eat in a white sweater, but we did work it in here for you as well. Like I, I will never get over that one. Um. Also, over the break, we still got this lebron james to score 10 plus points thing and in the early going, this was priced like minus 850. 

01:34:00
It was being talked about the, the infinite money glitch I have really seen now the the sharper basketball bettors take notice of where these prices have gone and it's actually really aggravating people. Now it's for alex bartlett. I never actively want to root against lebron, but, good lord, I want to see these morons get buried on just one of these and it's funny because they keep hitting. But the entire, not the entire, because you're part of the sharp betting basketball community, but there's more and more of these coming out. This, this cannot. I mean at minus 7,000. 

01:34:33 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
This cannot be. This kind of reminds me of the incentives of like good idea originally. Now minus 7,000 is definitely not good, but yeah, it's gonna lose and it's gonna be really funny. I agree, part of my ignorance. 

01:34:45 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
What was this price? 

01:34:47 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
like, like before it got, I think minus 850s, I think, like I saw minus, like 1500, I saw it. 

01:34:52 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I'm for sure saw 1200. I might be misremembering with the 850, the old uh roger, clemens or andy pit steroid abuse. I misremember when it comes to that, but 7,000, I will. What is it about sharp bettors that root for other people to Well? What do you? 

01:35:13 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
think it is when they're not price sensitive, and they're doing this. That's when people like you want Darwin to step in. 

01:35:21 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Well, the way I justify it in my head is you know, the more money fanduel draft kings pinnacle take and win, the more I can take from that. 

01:35:30 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Fair enough, fair I've always perceived it I'm obviously not sure, but I've always perceived it as like sharp. You'll want others to be taught a lesson the hard way. Yeah, like you're gonna learn once this loses. Well, I was taught those lessons a hard way, yeah. 

01:35:39 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Like you're going to learn once this loses. Well, I was taught those lessons the hard way myself, so I guess that yeah. 

01:35:43 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
but it took me a lot more bets to lose that kind of yeah Well, not minus 7,000. Not to say I was betting that, but it would just take a lot longer to learn my lesson because I wasn't losing on a minus 7,000. 

01:35:57 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
The guy who comes in and loses the first time will learn a serious lesson. 

01:36:02 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I mean, listen, I've done the dumbest things in my life. What was the year that the Yankees were up 3-0 against the Red Sox? 

01:36:10 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Red Sox came back 0-4. 

01:36:11 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Okay, so I'm 18 years old. At that time I quite literally believed in the curse of the Bambino. Okay, I bet the Yankees in Game 4, game 5, game 6, game 7, martingaled Lost, then convinced myself that I think it was the Rockies. 

01:36:30 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah. 

01:36:31 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Was it the? 

01:36:32 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Cardinals or Rockies. Matt Holliday was on the team. I think the Red Sox won World Series against both of them. I actually think it was the Rockies. I think it was the Rockies in 2004. And the Cardinals? 

01:36:43 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, matt Holliday was on the team. I remember because I had Matt Holliday in fantasy and I loved the guy. I then convinced myself the exact same thing in the World Series. 

01:36:51
They swept him. They swept him, yeah, so that's my lowest point as a better. I've been there. I I've been there. I've done really stupid shit, like I actually believed that there was a curse on a franchise where they were not going to be able to win the World Series. So that's a little bit about my past life before. So I can see it, and people will unfortunately learn the hard way when it comes to some stuff. 

01:37:17 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
One day, what will happen? Because it's very unlikely to me that LeBron will be in a game where he's not at 10 and doesn't just absolutely chase it, because it's been going on since 2007. What's going to happen one day is I hope it doesn't happen he gets injured and he comes out of the game early, before the 10 points, and that is going to be the best show for the old time james void yes. 

01:37:41 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Twitter reactions. That's going to be an insane one. 

01:37:43 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Right that is because that's how it's going to happen. For sure that's how it's going to happen, yeah it's gonna. 

01:37:50 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
They're gonna have to roll them out in a wheelchair, like paul pierce or uh or my guy uh, who did? I bet on that I didn't know. 

01:37:55 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Bob carrington bob carrington. 

01:37:57 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
what's bob carrington's real name? Againton? 

01:38:00 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Carlton. I've always known him as Carlton. 

01:38:01 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Carrington because of the MetStamp app I've never had any idea. No, he's Bob. Bob on the wheelchair, all right. That one happened. Then we had Kirk beefing it up. Kirk incites some serious fire on Twitter. You and the Raspix account don't get along. 

01:38:16 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Kirk tweeted this. 

01:38:22 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Rasp, uh, kirk tweeted this. Raspix and fesic sports seem to dismiss criticism as all these guys just hate touts. You know who? I see zero criticism of establish the run. Is it perfect? No, but they're running 10 plus roi on originated stuff and they actually care if the people paying are making money. I agree with that being true, I'll just I'll just give the entire situation here and then we'll dive a little bit deeper into this. Um matt says kirk, evans and whoever runs rast twitter need to have christmas dinner together. So you're going back and forth with raspix on christmas eve. Fezik, who was tagged in your original tweet he actually thinks right angle sports is is going after him. So he now quote tweets that, defending himself, saying how he's always defended right angle sport. 

01:39:06
This is a diatribe. I can't even read this on. Like you, you're watching on youtube. You might want to pause and read the whole thing. I'm not reading it for the listenership, but it was past festivus, so I can't call it a festivus miracle. Miracle, but this was for me christmas Eve. I'm with my family, but I'm checking in on my phone every now and then we're the family's playing bingo. I'm not a huge like bingo guy up you know whatever, but I'm going through this. I'm like thank god for this content tonight. Kirk, just going in Rass Steve Fezzik, so walk us through the entirety of this situation on that night for you. 

01:39:41 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Absolutely Well. I think important context is I'm Jewish, so no Christmas for me and all my friends were away, so a lot of boredom. 

01:39:50 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
People were going after you for that. They're like touch grass. It's Christmas Eve, yeah, exactly, but I'm like to me. 

01:39:55 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I'm originating NBA props for the next day and I'm bored and no one's around. But so the one thing if you go back to my tweet, I regret obviously I shouldn't have said zero criticism for ETR, even though I actually do see zero criticism for ETR, but obviously it exists, because that's really what Rass hung on to and was like oh you, you clearly aren't paying attention if you think ETR gets zero criticism. But it's just frustrating to me that anytime one of these guys who have totally convinced themselves they're the good type of tout they're. You know, all these other guys are scams, but I'm really worth it, even though rath ran a college basketball service that was negative 30 units for a full year. Never I haven't seen any apologies on twitter. Never says like we talked about earlier in the show, like like you know what we were wrong. Our edge is clearly eroding. Maybe we should charge less. 

01:40:46
I did all the math. They're 1.6% ROI over their last, like multiple thousands of bets, yet they're tweeting about how their first half results are really good and they're just running bad. So the point is that establish the run lets you subscribe monthly yep for a much more reasonable price than rast. I actually subscribe weekly to establish or weekly, weekly, so you can stop at any time. So if it's not right for you, they want you to stop subscribing. They run a 14 roi in basketball. That's the one I subscribe to, and rass's point is always oh, how easy is it to get down on an nba prop market one not that much more difficult than the random ass college basketball. 

01:41:29
They're betting added games or extra games exactly that yeah and two, who cares what you can get down when the play is moving in two seconds? In both scenarios, if you subscribe to ETR or you subscribe to RAS at least before I don't know about anymore, because they've lost a lot of edge the line would move immediately. It's not like you could. You know, the market, being a million dollar market, really matters because it moves right away. You're getting it maybe on one book, one quick click and they're still going to ban you and restrict your bets either way. 

01:42:02
So, yeah, it frustrates me that RAS just has no, never admits. They're wrong. You know, even in this tweet they say we've been doing exactly what you described for 25 plus years. No one gives a shit that you've been doing it for 25 plus years If for two years and thousands of bets, you've been horrible and charging thousands of dollars and still act like you're the best in the industry. So that's why rast really frustrates me, and whoever runs the twitter account is like, just dive so deep and can't admit any fault. 

01:42:34 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
And whoever it is, they should take the twitter away from you does this seem uh petty to you, jeff, from the outside looking in? No it seems. 

01:42:42 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
no, I, I, I totally get what kirk is saying and, I'll be honest, is like an observer, an outsider. I do see like razz is in the crosshairs a lot more than etr, but I think if etr deserved to get dog walked, people would be dog walking Exactly Like, exactly Like. No one is immune from getting dog walked or gambling Twitter. 

01:43:07 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
You know, if you release thousands of picks, so that would be. 

01:43:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
that would be my, my overarching thoughts here. And yeah, I don't know, christmas Eve Kirk's Kirk got audit. 

01:43:16 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, I, I personally subscribe to ETR. Do your own research with anything you're ever going to subscribe to. I find value in some of the things that they do there. I've interviewed Taylor Cabby before on Circles Off, who's the CEO of Establish the Run. I went at him with some of the criticisms of and I mean I still can be open-minded and critical as well. I like Taylor. I think he's a good guy, the big one for me that they get a lot of uh, free pass. It's not a free pass, but you know, I asked them about um, availability of lines, because they'll release a play if it's only available at fan duel or if it's only available at draft kings, because their premise is that well, well, the vast majority of Americans have a DraftKings account or a FanDuel account, so we consider that to be widely available. Personally, I don't. I like to see PPH open on plays. I like to see at least some other books where I'm able to get down, or else it's everybody just chasing the same line at one book and it's really hard to get. 

01:44:20
At the same line at one book and it's really hard to get so at the same time. Yeah, so, like a lot of the etrs having a good year, I would venture a guess that the roi is inflated on that because it's the numbers that they release and not everyone can get that. The same way that a right angle sports numbers would technically be inflated because not everyone can ever get those numbers. Pretty much every tout service is inflated in some way and that's just because they're picking like a widely available line, right? Uh, phezic, who's involved in this conversation? Right, I'm subscribed to phezic's packages. How many times do I get a play that's available at stations south point and win? Guess what? I'm not in las vegas. This line's not open anywhere. Pph is not open anywhere, it's a joke. How many times do I get a line that's only available at draft kings and south point like it? 

01:45:06 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
so I think that's every tout service is guilty of that in some way yeah, but the thing I'll say is that if your roi is 14 and it's inflated, that's one thing. If your roi is 1.% over two years and it's inflated, that's a huge problem. When people are paying thousands of dollars for your service, sure, and I would agree with you. 

01:45:26 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I do think at least they release at what I would call real numbers. I will give Right Angle Sports credit for that. You're going to get real numbers that are available to bet. It's going to happen like that they got to be. It's not for everyone, but they do that relative to lots of other services who don't. I'm not advocating for any service again. Do your own research on anything at the end of the day. But the etr does get some criticism yeah, no, I agree with that, but there's no perfect standard for honestly, maybe that's an episode for us in the future like the, the perfect, tout service. 

01:46:01
Yeah. 

01:46:02 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Because you know what Kirk. 

01:46:03 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
There's going to be a point where we're going to have a subscription for the hammer and this is going to be used against you. 

01:46:09 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah, people will shit on me for that. 

01:46:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I will say over the holidays, Fezzik has come into my DMs to show me what he's got. 

01:46:17 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah. And it's been quite enjoyable dm'd with him a little bit over, like he seemed like at least I thought the variance I was getting was was bang on. 

01:46:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So I don't know by by the byproduct of doing the show he's trying to show me the goods and I don't know. Good seemed pretty good, all right I'm happy. I mean, that's a variance. 

01:46:38 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It's a small run, but I I thought you know I I'd hope his clients had a lovely holidays yeah, maybe I'll do a a physic um sequel on circles off, because it's been a while since we last talked to him. Johnny's no longer in the equation. Uh, I've kind of turned into like a johnny against him not necessarily against him, it's just like certain things I just bought I. I'm naturally someone who can be rubbed the wrong way and when I am, I'm going to be very vocal about it. In some instances he does bring up good points, like I was chatting with fezik over the holidays and he was like well, you know, the records for forward progress, uh, best bets suck this year. And I mean we talk, I talk about it on the show every week. We do a recap every single week. We, we, we put out one best bet on usually a wednesday afternoon. 

01:47:25
Market has kind of matured. At that point there's no practice reports that we can go off of. I'm not making excuses, even though actually I am making excuses but the record has sucked. I don't stray from it at the end of the year. I still believe the show is valuable in some capacity. But his whole point to me was like well, if this was, let's say, a guy like Simon Hunter or someone that you don't like, that was, had those records over the course of a year. You would roast them and I'm like let me give that some thought. But I did give it some thought and I'm like I don't. I don't really roast people for bad records, that's never. 

01:47:55 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You've never been like oh, you're down X units, yeah, just be transparent about it, If it was someone who was getting good numbers it was getting, like you could tell, was getting good numbers. I don't think you would give them a hard time for losing. I definitely wouldn't, at least in the history of this show. I don't think you've made fun of someone for being a losing bettor. It's either how they've gone about losing or how they sell themselves even though they're losers I will say I listen. 

01:48:21 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
You guys know this by now. I listen religiously to the favorites with with chad millman and simon hunter. 

01:48:26
It's a product yeah, your beef has never been simon's records it's never and and they recap every week they do a sunday night show. We went this over the course of the day. I listened to their year-end show this morning. They did a full recap of every bet. What they ended up like that's not the issue. It's more so that simon has sold himself as something that he is not right. It's fine, he, you can be a professional better like. He's obviously, very obviously a tout. He's admitted that on and like a professional mover, but he doesn't really have any insight into how to bet the nfl. That's very clear. So that's my issue with that and that would be my response to fezik as well is that, like it's not about the records for me, and I want to put out winning bet. Everyone wants to put out winning bets, without a doubt, but to me it's just being about transparent about about who you are, the content you're putting speaking of transparency, you think you can finish this sucker in five minutes? 

01:49:18
yeah, let's do it um, kirk I, I, I wanted to paint you in a good light because you get shit on quite a bit agreed, because you're in there you're in the shit you're in the shit storm absolutely at all times but you tweeted out something nice, which was very few times. I regret going after someone on twitter. Last year I was totally wrong how I went at DKDFS on the Mikael Bridges stuff. 

01:49:44 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Yeah. So just as a quick overview, dkdfs put out a massive Bridges edge where he was only going to play the first quarter. All the Bucks took him off. I did get down on it myself. I was frustrated that I was starting to kind of give it to friends. It was honestly top three biggest edges of my life and I don't regret going after DK and DK now admits that he was wrong and shouldn't have done that. The thing is I just said like I think my tweet was like I wish only bad things happened to you. Obviously that was too far and I didn't mean that. Well, you meant it at the time. Yeah, I guess I meant it at the time. Yeah, I guess I meant it at the time. But I didn't like he had the right to put it out and that's his right and he can do that if he wants to. But I should have tweeted at him like this was really dumb, but I shouldn't have been that mean to him. 

01:50:34 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
That was the regret there you go kirk evans not really a 100 piece of shit for raspic's twitter account. 

01:50:41
There is, there is a real 95. There is a soul behind this man. Even though you don't get along, I'm sure you'd get along in person. Honestly, it's really weird, very, very weird stuff. Uh, finally, it's christmas eve. I'm in a telegram group chat and, uh, one of my buddies posts uh, this tiktok, which is, uh, christmas day nfl trends. I tweeted the link to it. No, no need to model out the games anymore. When you got this, I got to tell you we're not going to play the full video because it's an abomination. 

01:51:08 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
It was insane. 

01:51:09 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It's like actually insane trends that people think matter. I don't know who this is. I found out after the fact. His name is Johnny Junta. He does a Blue Jays podcast. He does some work for owner's box. I don't honestly don't follow this stuff. I don't pay enough attention. But what really got me after this was okay, you know what I roast the guy I gotta be expected to take, take some back. That's just. That's just what it is. I actually kind of like this zinger here, ryan surah, another guy from owner's box. He posted, uh, my merry christmas message to everyone where I say you know, I can be an ass sometimes. I'm working on it. I have a good heart. I care for those around me. Wishing you and the loved ones a joyful and peaceful holiday. Johnny, the guy I roasted in the video response, saying excited for him to go on his grown man gossip show and talk about how dumb other people are for 3k views, viewership's a little bit higher. 

01:51:59 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Listenership is through the roof but yeah, definitely I'm gonna talk about this, those are those are two funny tweets 

01:52:05 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
yeah, they're pretty good, solid, I saw I thought they were good beefs. 

01:52:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Honestly, I have no issues with that I kind of laughed it off. 

01:52:11 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
Yeah, you gotta eat that yeah, yeah, I don't. 

01:52:13 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I you, you gotta expect it. Right, you give it, you can take it. But then they were going on and on and I honestly didn't even see this stuff in real time. People are just sending this to me, they're tagging me in this, but johnny says pro sports better, I'm so fucking sure man put the fries in the bag. And someone starts going after him saying just because you can't do it does not mean others can't? He put fuck, I'm not a pro sports gambler. How the fuck will I recover from not being called a made-up, self-proclaimed title? And at the end he says I got terrible fucking news. Man, there's no such goddamn thing as a pro sports bettor. It's like a truck driver calling themselves a professional driver. It doesn't exist. 

01:52:59 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Well, a truck driver is a professional driver. 

01:53:01 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It doesn't exist. Well, a truck driver is a professional driver? 

01:53:02 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
Of course they are. That's what they do for a living. It is their profession. That's the dumbest thing. 

01:53:04 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It's like a pro athlete. 

01:53:06 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
You're an athlete who's professional? 

01:53:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I think to myself a lot of times. I personally think to myself a lot of these guys are baiting. I watched that video and I'm like this this fucking guy just seeking clicks, absolutely, and they are seeking clip clicks, but he actually doesn't know any better like he literally has no fucking clue that putting out a trends video on christmas day trends is meaningless, like these people are so far off and this is what happens when, like, everyone's going to get involved in sports betting. Yeah, frankly, that's the case you just get a punch. 

01:53:45 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
He has a sports podcast. 

01:53:47 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
He wants to get involved and, and that's it, um sandy, who I think is part of um, the owner's box team. I don't know. It's also confusing. I didn't look into it too deeply. Surely the ceo of bet stamp isn't chirping a company that his business has contacted numerous times to partner with crying face emoji? This is like oh, they got me. I'm not the ceo of betstamp, I'm the ceo of the hammer. I'm a co-owner of betstamp. I have no day-to-day involvement with betstamp. At the time, about four years ago, we had an influencer program with betstamp. This was our attempt to reach out to other people in the space um and try to get them all tracking within. Bet stamp itself turned out to be a failure. You want to guess why? Because no one wants to track. Well, they, they track. And then what happens? 

01:54:30
most of them lose and they go over to pick it where they can hide picks and stuff like that. 

01:54:34 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
They used to ask us not these people in particular. These people have asked us because I used to be part of the best in team to change their record for them because it looks bad. Can you restart? Can? 

01:54:44 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
you reset my record. Can you delete? 

01:54:46
these plays, this and that it used to happen all the time so definitely we would have reached out. In fact, I might have met these guys. I think there was a time at our old office where the owners box guys came into the office and I met them. This might have been just after COVID, I don't know, I can't remember, I kind of remember that happening. But I just had to point it out because, like so many times, these people tweet these things like they think it's like some sort of Like a gotcha we weren't reaching out for them. 

01:55:15
Like it's like this we were just trying to make a name for ourselves in the space by approaching as many people as possible and and getting the names out there by getting other people to track. Little did you know that they didn't. But uh, yeah, man, no such thing as a pro sports better the ec like this is. This is another classic. Like dig the feet into the sand and no matter how many people come from our side of gambling twitter and say, dude, you're wrong about this. It's just a fight to the death on something that someone is so convinced of that they couldn't be more wrong on, and it's very, very frustrating. 

01:55:50 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
That's kind of the theme of Twitter and this show. Honestly, just people digging their heels in. 

01:55:55 - Jacob Gramegna (Announcement)
I know I actually kind of like it, including us sometimes, we dig our heels in. 

01:55:59 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I will say I mean, you tell me, if I'm out a lot, I consider myself to be open-minded, does that not yeah? I try to think from everyone's perspective, I would agree with that. 

01:56:09 - Kirk Evans (Co-host)
I think the perspective here is they don't know anything about us, but I think everyone thinks they're open-minded to be fair. 

01:56:12 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, that's true. I think I'm self-aware, though. You're pretty good, all right. Well, I'm going to wrap it on that Hashtag Circle Back on Twitter. If you want to get a topic into the show Got a big interview coming up on Circles Off next week Make sure you're subbed here on the Circles Off channel, trying to push to as many subs as possible. I do want to get that 100k plaque on the wall behind me at some point. Still got a ways to go. So please, if you just found us and you enjoy the content, please hit that subscribe button. I think it's just a vanity metric, but it helps nonetheless. Of course, leaving your comments will really help here on the channel. Anything related to the show. I'm more than happy to discuss it. I read every single one. I respond as well. Get your comments in. Make sure you like the stream. This has been. Circle back episode number 13. We'll be back with a brand new episode next week. Peace out.