The UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 7th for a stacked PPV card headlined by Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja vs UFC newcomer Kai Asakura. The much anticipated co-main event features two undefeated Welterweights in Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry.
The main card is set to begin at the regular start time of 10pm ET/7pm PT on ESPN+ PPV. With the preliminary card getting underway at 8pm ET/5pm PT on ESPN2/ESPN+.
Come back here every UFC Fight Night for great off-market picks that we identify, and bet all of them over the long run to grow your bankroll!
How We Make Our Picks
Our proprietary Betstamp PRO player prop comparison tool generates our player prop picks. It identifies bets where the odds offered are significantly higher than the true probability, known as Positive Expected Value (+EV) betting (Click HERE to learn more about what +EV Betting is!!). Our data and math-driven approach has won users MILLIONS over the past 3 years, and we aim to uncover valuable, mis-priced bets across various sports to provide disciplined, sustainable profit to users!
Brown vs Battle - Welterweight, 3 Rounds
Our Pick: Fight to NOT Go to Decision -120 @Betway
Edge: 5.7% Expected Value
Betstamp PRO identifies this bet as great value with our true line at -136, while Betway is set at -120, providing bettors with a 3.03% edge. Most sportsbooks are pricing the fight to finish before the final bell between -135 and -145. Plus, BetOnline, known for having sharp odds in combat sports, has this bet at -161, which really shows how much of an advantage Betway's number gives you. So, don’t wait too long—this line is likely to move before fight night!
Chiesa vs Griffin - Welterweight, 3 Rounds
Our Pick: Moneyline Michael Chiesa -110 @ Betway
Edge: 2.74% Expected Value
This pick on the Moneyline for Michael Chiesa at Betway offers good value as Betway lists it at -110, while the true line in the market is at -117. This discrepancy provides bettors with a 2.74% Expected Value, suggesting a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity. Michael Chiesa's grappling prowess, with an average of 3.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 51%, could play a decisive role against Max Griffin, whose takedown defense sits at 68%. Furthermore, Chiesa’s ability to absorb fewer strikes per minute (1.72) compared to Griffin (3.81) indicates a potential advantage in a controlled, tactical bout.
Maximize Your Sports Betting Winnings
One of the key things to keep in mind when betting Positive Expected Value picks is to make sure to properly manage your bankroll & only bet the correct percentage based on the edge identified. Click HERE to learn more about BANKROLL MANAGEMENT!
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