How to Use the Poisson Distribution Calculator
The Betstamp Poisson Calculator helps you estimate the likelihood of an outcome based on an average rate of occurrence. This is especially useful for prop bets involving goals, shots, points, or any countable stat.
By entering two simple inputs — an expected average and your target outcome — the calculator instantly reveals three key probabilities:
- Exactly that number of events
- At least that number of events
- At most that number of events
Quick Start:
- Expected Average: Input the average rate of the event. For example, if a team averages 2.5 goals per game, enter 2.5.
- Proposed Events: Input the specific target outcome. For instance, if you're betting on 3 or more goals, enter 3.
The calculator will return:
- The probability of exactly 3 events occurring
- The probability of 3 or more events (At Least)
- The probability of 3 or fewer events (At Most)
Example:
Suppose you're analyzing a bet on the Toronto Maple Leafs to score 3+ goals, and they average 2.5 goals per game. Enter 2.5 as the Expected Average and 3 as the Proposed Events.
The calculator shows:
- Exactly 3 goals: 21.3%
- At least 3 goals: 45.6%
- At most 3 goals: 76.9%
This tells you how often that result is expected to occur, helping you compare your sportsbook's odds to the true probability.
Sharp bettors use this tool to identify value in alt lines and props — especially when sportsbooks misprice events based on streaks, narratives, or inefficient markets.
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