00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. It's a jam-packed episode. We're going to talk about the biggest misconceptions in sports betting. We're debuting a new segment Plus EV, minus EV and stay tuned right to the very end of the show. Big announcement here on the Circles Off channel as well. You're not going to want to miss it. Stay tuned to the very end. Circles Off starts now. Come on, let's go. Welcome to Circles circles off, episode number 106. Here, part of the hammer betting network, I'm rob gazzola, joined by johnny from betstamp number six who do we have? 

00:37
uh, shea weber is a big lebron. Lebron is currently wearing number six. I'm pretty sure like such a loser yeah, I think he wore it with mi six. I'm pretty sure Such a loser yeah, I think he wore it with Miami, but I'm pretty sure he wore six this year. 

00:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, no, he swapped back from 23 to six. Yeah, he did. Yeah, is he wearing? 

00:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
six. He wore six. Six to me like obviously I'm a huge NFL fan, but what resonates to me is like if you wear six as a quarterback, you're destined to fail. 

01:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Six Give us an example Jay Cutler, oh he wasn't bad. 

01:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, he had a long career, but he sucked Like Jay Cutler. I don't know if this is a fact or not. I don't want to spew fake facts again like I did a few weeks ago, but I'm pretty sure Jay Cutler, over like of quarterbacks that have started like 50 games or more in the NFL, has by far the worst against the spread record, like consistently underperformed market expectations, more than any player, any quarterback, in the history of the NFL. We got a fact check that one. I'm almost certain Jay Cutler like horrible and I know from experience, by the way, betting on Jay Cutler this is part of the reason why. But uh, in and around that same era, mark sanchez wore number six, baker mayfield wears number six. Now you, you wear number six and get drafted high okay, cutler was way better than mark sanchez. 

01:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Completely agree with that, completely agree. But cutler, like color, had a massive contract sign where it was like every team wanted him, yes or that. That like yeah I'm pretty sure the bears traded a shit ton to get him the thing with cutler is that like he just looked like he never gave a shit. 

02:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He didn't, he absolutely did not, he literally did not get like some quarterbacks throw a pick and you could see like they're angry with themselves or whatever cutler just like walked off the feet. You wouldn't even have known something bad happened in his life, right there. 

02:25 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I know Trying to find, but I can find. Do you know who has the best ATS record? Tom Brady, no Mahomes, teddy Bridgewater. 

02:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh yeah, teddy Bridgewater, 42 and 20. 

02:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Teddy Bridgewater 42 and 20 ATS. I should have known that. What's Mahomes? 

02:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
33, um 33, 25 and 2. Number two on this list here is josh allen, and then number three is tom brady 165, 108 and 9 on brady. 

02:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just thought brady wouldn't be up there because, like the sheer number of games, it would be higher to get a top percentage no, I say this all the time when I'm when I'm doing um forward progress during football season and talking about it anytime like the patriots. Or brady comes up. If I had just not bet tom brady games in my life like I don't actually even want to think about the, the monetary amount that I've lost betting against tom brady yeah that they used to say. 

03:20
They're like oh, you don't get rich betting against brady and belichick, you see like you think, just how a lot of people are conditioned to sports bet and I'm not saying I do this right, but a lot of people are conditioned to like be contrarian, right, and oftentimes I do think that there is something to this in in the nfl. 

03:38
But, like, once a player gets a little bit too much hype, you know they're typically what happens is like you, you want to. I don't want to say you necessarily like this, is not blind or anything like that, but everyone knew how good the Patriots were for so many years with Brady right, and it wasn't just me like the market used to move against them on game day, like every game, and they would just keep winning and covering and there was like something that was not captured and, like, from a statistical profile, there was something with that team that we weren't capturing, like I I can't explain it, but they just figured out like they always figured out a way to cover. They knew how to win. Even when it was like it looked like they had no hope of covering a game. They would cover the games it was was highly depressing. 

04:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So for today, I know we have a really cool episode, Rob. You want to kick it off. What are we doing today? 

04:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do so oftentimes people reach out to us. We get this circles off at betstampapp. If you want to reach out to us, you can DM us on Twitter at circles off HQ. You can DM me on Twitter at Rob Pizzola. We get a lot of DMS that are just like oh, can you touch on this topic? Can you do this? Can you touch on this? And yes, we can. But a lot of my responses are like we can't. We can't do a 45 minute episode on this one topic. 

04:59
This needs two minutes, right, and what we wanted to do was revisit one of the earliest episodes of Circles Off we had, which was episode number eight of Circles Off, where the latter half of the episode we talked about sports betting myths, and I haven't gone back and listened to that episode. It was literally two years ago. But what we do want to do is go over some sports betting misconceptions in the space and put together a segment that people can refer back to all the time. This isn't gonna resonate with everyone. Some people out there are super sharp bettors and this is not gonna be new information to them, but there's a lot of people who also want to get their friends involved in betting or frustrated when they have conversations with their friends, trying to explain things to them about the betting space. This will serve as a great segment to send over to your buddies, your family, whoever you want to, to say hey, watch this for half an hour, listen to what these guys are saying. It's not just me, there's other bettors out there that are telling you the same thing. So we're going to talk a little bit about sports betting misconceptions. 

06:00
We're going to go back and forth here, but before we do, I will remind you that none of this is possible without Pinnacle Sportsbook, which is available to bettors in Ontario. Find out what pro bettors have known for decades Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. Please play responsibly. You must be 19 plus, excuse me, in Ontario and not available in the US. And for those who know and watch regularly, we preach line shopping all the time. It's extremely important, very easy way to win more or lose less, and you can do that at Pinnacle with the low margins that they have. So solid sports book. Check them out. But let's get into it. Sports betting misconceptions. We'll kick it off with you, johnny. 

06:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I'll start it off. I think we're each going to do four that we handpicked here. So if you hear, if you already know this stuff, sorry If you don't, I'm incredible. If you have any questions on anything that Rob or I touch upon, as Rob said, send us a message. But the main thing we want to do here is send this to your buddies that you might hear say these misconceptions and then hopefully we can you know that you might hear say these misconceptions and then hopefully we can, you know, change some opinions here and everyone could win a little bit more. 

07:08
So, number one successful bettors always win at 55% or more, right? So this is for anyone who says kind of things like oh, in order to be professional, even the best of bettors, they hit 60%, they hit 55%, they hit 54%. If you're just even a little bit good, you can win money in sports betting. So anyone who says that or some variation of that, here is how you know this is the real scoop, is how it works. So Rob and I, anyone who bets, they will know that the win rate is not an important metric. So whether you hit at 60%, 80%, 20% is actually completely irrelevant without other information, the other information that you actually need is what odds you are betting at. So some bets I place might be at minus 110. Some might be at plus 200. Some are at minus 193. Some are minus 500. And some are futures bets. Maybe that might be that some people bet might be at, you know, plus 10,000. So to say, sum those up and just say, hey, I hit 61%. That doesn't actually give you an indication of a how much you're winning. If you're winning better or, honestly, it's completely irrelevant. The info that you need is is the win rate that I have above the win, like the needed win rate for that onset. So if you're betting at minus 110, yes, in order to be profitable in the long term, you need to hit around 54%, but that's if you're betting every bet at minus 110. If you're betting every bet at plus 100, then now, if you're hitting 50.01%, then you're up long term. 

08:52
So the actual percentage, in fact, never matters, and instead, what I would urge anyone to do who wants to have a better metric to track success of their bets is to track the ROI of the wager. And what that would be is you take the total amount bet of all of your, of all your wagers and then the total amount won or lost. So, for example, let's say you bet 10 bets, whatever ranging in size, and that totals up to be $10,000, or let's say you bet a hundred bets, it totals up to be $10,000. And then you end up winning on that $1,000. On the average of all your bets you won $1,000, and your total stake, total handle, total risk amount was $10,000. You just earned a 10% ROI. 10% ROI is phenomenal, it's a great ROI. 

09:38
So now to put this back into perspective, when people say, oh, even the best professionals, they'll only hit 60%. Really, the way it works. And most professionals will talk in terms of ROI, like what is your turnover and then what is your ROI. So when you're looking at the best professionals, what do they hit? I would say, depending on the market, something like a 5% ROI would be very good. Something like a 1% ROI would still be enough to keep the lights on and make a ton of money, depending on the volume. 

10:07
So if someone says, hey, I hit 25% ROI, that's probably false and they don't really know what they're talking about. It's not really possible to hit that much over a long term. You know, maybe you might find one segment or one thing where you can, you can get achieve ROI, but overall, in the total betting portfolio, it would be extremely hard. And then if someone says, hey, I'm hitting 75% of my bets, you really have to ask them like, okay, are you betting all minus 300s, Are you betting all minus 1000s? Because if you are betting all minus 1000s and you're hitting 75%, you're down money. So that's the end of the rant. I hope this clarifies some stuff as I mentioned. Any questions, fire them in and we'll be happy to expand more. 

10:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's all relative to your average odds. Basically, you know the people can say exactly like Johnny said right, I'm hitting 70%, okay, what are your average odds? Because you know if you're hitting 70, this is not gonna happen, by the way but if you're hitting 70% on coin flips that you know know betting plus 100, then you know that's phenomenal. But if you're hitting 70 percent, your average bet is minus 1000, then that's nothing. So it's all relative and this is like another one. That's where relativity is important. So for me, one of the biggest pet peeves I see, if you google sports betting information, sports betting strategy, you're going to see something that very commonly comes up and it is true for a subsection of bettors, but it's not necessarily true for everyone. And the one thing that drives me the craziest is people who say that too much volume in sports betting is bad or that you should limit the amount of bets that you place. And in reality this is good advice for a large portion of the population, because if you don't have an edge and every single time you make a bet you're making a negative expected value wager. You don't really have an edge. The more bets you place, the quicker you're going to run out of money. Essentially, the quicker you're going to lose your money. But there are people who do have edges in sports betting and not all of them are capitalized. And when I say that it's like there are people that bet, they do. 

12:12
Well, I'll use our producer Zach, as an example. Zach's not betting a thousand bucks a game, betting 20 bucks a game, but he's winning. He's capitalized. He's undercapitalized, but he's winning, or not getting down like a life-changing amount of money on every single bet. But he does a good job. And Zach plays a ton of volume. And there's a reason that if you have an edge, you want to play more volume because you're finding valuable bets. And the more and more valuable bets that you find, the quicker you're going to be able to build your bankroll. Producer Zach started with $2 bets over a year ago. Literally $2 bets. He is 10 times his average bet size, if not more than that right now, purely by playing volume. And when I say playing volume, again, this is a real edge, a quantifiable edge. He's betting a number and the line is closing at a better price than what he's betting. He knows that. He knows in the long run he's going to win, so he's looking for as much volume as possible and generally, as a rule of thumb, if you do have an edge, if you're tracking your closing line value, you're beating the closing line 80% of the time, 90% of the time by wide margins. 

13:21
You should be looking for more and more of that right, because the more you can bet of that, the quicker you're going to increase your bankroll. And the exact opposite is true. Like I said before, if you have no edge, you're just a coin flipper. You know you want to have some fun recreational betting. That's when you probably want to limit what you're doing, because every single time you make that negative expected value bet, there's negative expected value built into it. It's more likely you're going to lose your bank real quickly. So don't just buy into like these preconceived, you know blanket statements because, yes, this applies to some people, but if you're someone who has gone from a losing better to a winning better or you're currently a winning better, volume is actually your friend. Find more winning bets. 

14:03
I also see people a lot of times that are originators. They do a bottom-up approach to sports betting. They make a probability on the game and then they go shop books and they bet their edges. But I see people say like, oh, I only bet my top edges, right, I only bet my biggest edge every single day because they want to reduce risk. Now, I'm not going to tell you how to bet your own money. Everyone's own personal preferences apply here. Some people are just risk averse, and that's fine. But when you just start limiting yourself to betting your top edge or your top two edges, you're actually leaving money on the table if you actually do have an edge. So let's say I ran my model in one day and I had a 10% edge, a 9% edge, an 8% edge, a 7% edge and I'm just throwing a random example all the way down to 1%. Personally, if it were me, I would bet every single one of those, but I would adjust my bet size accordingly. I would bet more on my biggest edge and less on my smaller. Some people only bet the top ones, and that's fine If that's their strategy. They want to avoid risk. 

15:08
But in my opinion, volume is good for you in that type of situation. When you find edges, you want to play them. It's no different than if somebody came to you and I'll put this into just like language that every single person can understand. But if I went to Johnny and I had a coin and he knew it was a real coin and like not a weight, like forget about the weighted coin stuff, like that I actually just brought to him a nickel and said I'm gonna give you plus 200 on every single coin flip. 

15:38
How many times do you wanna flip this? He's gonna say to me, like as many times as possible. Right, because he's gonna take plus 200 on a 50-50 as many times as possible. He's not going to say I'm only going to flip this once. And that's a known quantifiable edge. It's a little bit different than sports betting but generally speaking, if you have an edge, if you're finding good bets there's proof of concept that the market is moving your way then don't worry about the volume. Too much volume is not bad for you. In that instance You're finding as many valuable bets as possible. 

16:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I think also to add to Rob it also diversifies things a little bit more as well. So you're going to actually have less overall losing days and more overall winning days. So it's like to his nickel example yeah'd take the. I'd rather flip it as many times as I can. But if he came to me and said all right, you get one flip and settle up after that, or you get a thousand flips and we take the average and I'll pay you an average, I would rather take the thousand flips and take out the average, because I know on average we're going to go 50 50 on that and I'm going to get the plus 200. So I'd rather have something like that as opposed to just like a one flip. 

16:46
That is truly what the value is in betting a little bit more. But again, as Rob said, this is only if you have an edge. Betting more just to bet more and chasing losses and just throwing, dunking money and random stuff is obviously not good. Number three so number three is pretty much. If anybody mentions Vegas in any betting-related tweet or post or anything, or if they say the word Vegas, it's typically wrong. 

17:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Vegas knows, you know anything. 

17:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If they say, hey, I went to Las Vegas, then yeah, ignore that. Hey, I went to Las Vegas, then yeah, ignore that. And if they say like, hey, I placed this wager at Circa Sports in Las Vegas yes, those I'm not complaining about. But pretty much outside of those two scenarios, Anyone that mentions Vegas in anything it's a complete falsification of what's going on, Like they don't understand. So if you say, for example, wow, Vegas had this at minus two and the game landed on two, Like what are the odds? That's crazy. Vegas knows better than you. Or if you say, wow, Vegas had this game at this and they ended up closing in at this. So they're so sharp. Vegas knew the spread. Vegas called the game. 

18:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
How does Vegas do? 

18:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it like anything in regards to vegas is usually wrong. So, in order to kind of explain this, what I'll say is the whole vegas misconception. People think that the odds for betting is vegas. I don't understand how, how it's being said, but it's just like oh, oh, so what are the odds? Oh, what is it in Vegas? That's what people say. What's it in Vegas, what does it do in Vegas? They assume that, like there's just like these people in Vegas or the whole place, vegas just makes odds and they're just the exact odds for the game. Okay, so I'll explain a little bit about how it really works. Which is someone who owns a bookmaking operation or one of these sites or something like that, will make the numbers for the game. They will be like all right, the Jays are playing the Astros, I think it's going to be Jays minus 147. And they will open the lineup and let people bet at it at a very small limit, let's say at $100 for simplicity. So they're like all right, I'm going to let anyone bet this at $100. 

19:12
The shops that typically do this are not in Vegas. In fact, they're not in Vegas, not typically, they're just not in Vegas. The people who open the lines first are not in Vegas. Now, circa Sports we've had on Chris Bennett, jeff Benson, a few of our friends. They're the closest to it and I think for some very few markets they do open first. But for simplicity, those shops are not in Vegas, they're actually located offshore in the islands. They're not in America, not in Canada, they're not in the UK, they're not in Vegas. Where they are is somewhere offshore and they will open up these bets and they'll say all right, this is what we're going to have. Here you go, they'll let people bet at them and when people actually bet at those lines, they will adjust the odds in accordance to where they bet and in accordance to how call it sharp the people are who bet them. So if there's one better who's really, really sharp and he constantly beats the hockey lines, and they open it up and they see that this guy's betting this side, this side, this side, this side, this side, they will move those lines to make sure that they are now, quote unquote, on the same side as that pro better who has historically won on hockey and has a proven track record of winning on hockey. 

20:31
So now what happens is, during this process, the sports book who opened the lines they've now only taken, like a few hundred dollar bets or $500 bets, whatever it is, depending on the sport. So they're like, okay, that's not that bad, I know that this guy's going to win, but he's only going to win 500, a thousand, 2000, 10,000, max, all of the rest of the sports books that you see. The majority of them will then copy those lines and then they will basically grab the same odds from that. And then now they will. Some of them will do their own trading based on who plays there, and then others will just leave them and then copy them Whatever. They'll look online like, oh this guy has this All right, perfect, I'm going to move this to 150. Now, that's how it works. So what's really happening is when you say, oh, vegas nailed this spread. Some guy in Costa Rica or girl, some person in Costa Rica made a number for minus 147. The best baseball bettors in the world continued to bet that, and if they bet it, the one way it is going to move up to 175 minus 175. 

21:35
And then what happens is the game gets played and the number that is the closing number, meaning where it was bet to, is always sharper on the long run than the opening number, meaning Vegas itself did not make any of those prices, and even the closing line. When you say, oh, this game opened at minus three and it closed at minus six and it landed on six, the Dolphins won by exactly six. What are the odds? It wasn't Vegas, it was the pro bettors that moved that number into the range that it was. So the bettors make the number, the sportsbooks just post the initial and then move based on the information that the bettors get. Of all the info I just gave, if you're a super sharp bettor, you're going to be able to poke holes in a slight bit of things. That's only because this is for a beginner and I don't want to get into everything, but roughly, that is how it works 99.9% of there is what you said. 

22:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There is like of course this is. 

22:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We talked about this. I can't rant on this for like. I can't rant on this for like 30 minutes. 

22:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Every baseline. Possible with every, every single thing, but that's the crux of it. And again, possible with every, every single thing, but that's the crux of it. And again, if you're in ontario and use pinnacle as an example, right, you can use this. You can actually see this firsthand with anything that you do, anything that you bet right now. 

22:54
But let's say, for example, in an nfl season, pinnacle is going to put out the lines for next week on sunday night and the one difference between pinnacle and a lot of the regulated books is that you can see exactly what your max bet amount is on anything, and you'll notice when, let's say, week one is just over in the NFL, it's Sunday night Pinnacle's putting out numbers for week two. You can go and bet those and you'll see that you can typically bet something like 500 bucks, 700 bucks, a thousand bucks, and then midweek that week you can bet 5,000 bucks, you can bet 10,000 bucks, and then, guess what, on NFL Sunday, you can bet a hundred thousand, 200,000, leading up to game time and ask yourself why a sports book would let you bet way more right when the game is about to go off than when they just opened up the game. And it's because they've used all this information from the betting market all the bets that have come in to be able to accurately price the game at that point. That's how the market works. They've used the information from other bettors. It's the bettors that determine the market and the sports book just moves based off of that information. 

24:08
If no one placed a bet, it would just stay there forever. They have no information to move it. It would just stick there. No one placed a bet, no one got injured. The line would be what it was when they opened it up, because there's no other information, but they have the ability to process this. 

24:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and it's not. It's not just the actual limit, it's how much they will move off the hit as well. So if you bet a $500 max bet, it's minus 130. That might move to minus 144, which is a significant move. Yep, if you bet a game that's minus 130, that's a 100K limit. It's probably moving to minus 132. Yeah, which is less of a significant move. So that's just another thing there for the uh, for the pros. So you don't get a complete, so you, so you get some new info. Yep, you always got to wonder how vegas knows this I don't know how they know. 

24:55
And it's like how is vegas so sharp on the closing line? Doesn't make sense. 

24:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
How are they so much sharper than everyone else. All right, pazola, the only spot with betting in the world, obviously. 

25:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The fourth misconception. 

25:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right. So this one drives me crazy too, because I think this will vary much. If you're a recreational better, obviously we don't discriminate against any type of better. If you want to bet for entertainment, you do what you want to do with your money. We just try to educate as best as we can. But there's this huge. There's this huge. 

25:25
There's this notion of hot or cold in, like the recreational community right, you win 10 bets in a row, you're running hot. You know you lose a bunch in a row, you're ice cold. And there's this notion and I hear it from my friends all the time that you should adjust your betting strategies based off of whether you're hot or cold. And I'm sure people are watching this and it's either you're like I've done this before or I know people who do this, but it's like I'm hot, I'm gonna press. I'm seeing the board clearly, I'm pressing, I'm getting more money down, I'm putting down, I'm cold, I'm gonna take a few days off, I'm gonna step back and listen. There's like there's a mental component to betting as well. If you're cold and you're like you're struggling with it, you're losing money, you want to take a few days off, go for that. But hot and cold streaks and like seeing the board clearly and not seeing the board clearly. 

26:20
For 99% of people this is just a figment of your imagination because there is a lot of randomness in sports. There's a lot of variance in sports. Go back to the example of flipping a coin. But if you flip a coin 10 times, it's not always going to come up five heads and five tails, even though we know the probability of both sides is 50%. There's going to be times where you get 10 heads in that coin flip. It's not because you're hot, you're seeing the coin flip clearly, calling 10 coin flips properly or anything like that. It's just random variance. So with hot streaks and cold streaks, when people say that they're hot, they're searing the board clearly. Ask yourself, ask your friends, what are you doing differently right now than when you were losing bets before? When people say I'm on a hot streak, I'm reading the board so well, what are you doing differently than when you were on a cold streak and most people say nothing, I'm just seeing it like you're not doing anything differently. It's just the variance of the actual bets. 

27:26
So do not get caught up in this stuff, because sometimes you can make bad bets that win. Sometimes you can make good bets that lose. This happens all the time. It will happen for the rest of your life, for every single type of better. So forget about whether you're hot or cold. 

27:42
Try not to vary your bet amounts too much based off of whether you're hot or cold. Try not to vary your bet amounts too much based off of whether you're hot or cold. Obviously, there's like standard bankroll management principles that come into place If you're constantly losing. Yeah, maybe you want to reduce your bet size because of, like, your bankrolls going down in general, same as if you're winning a lot. Okay, you might increase a bit because your bankroll is going up, but do not press three times on a bet because you've just won four in a row. Do not like you. I mean, you can take, like take two weeks off because you lost a bunch of bets in a row, just because you can't stomach betting. That's completely fine. I'll never discourage that. 

28:20
But the whole notion of adjusting your betting based off of hot and cold is just based off of luck. 

28:26
It's based off of randomness for the most part, unless you are actually doing something completely different. 

28:32
Like, say, you were just, you know, picking teams based off of their mascot and now, all of a sudden, you're running some sort of sophisticated model. This can apply to a nobody, by the way. If you're doing that, then obviously that's something different. Nobody, by the way. If you're doing that, then obviously that's something different. But like, if you're doing the same thing you've done for the last seven months and you won 12 games in a row, it's probably just luck if that's the case. So be aware of that and, honestly, just like general rule of thumb is just understanding that there is a a portion of luck that's involved in sports betting and it's always going to be like that. So I, you know hot streaks, cold streaks yeah, technically they exist. Technically, if you win, you know 14 games in a row, you're running hot, but you haven't done anything differently that led to that 14 game winning streak. So don't don't feel like you need to bet a bunch more money all of a sudden, because you just are on the right side of variance. 

29:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree with Rob completely. There's a reason why if you've ever been to a casino and you see the roulette wheel, they put up a little board there that shows all the historical numbers. Okay, now, quite obviously it doesn't matter If it's come up 38 times red in a row. The casino doesn't adjust the odds. They never will, they never have. What they put that up for is for people who are believing in fictitious stuff, like, oh, I'm superstitious and like it came up red, it can't be bad for the casino. It's crazy. It's like, oh, 30 in a row red, like it's going to be red again, I got to go. Or someone will be like, no, it's due for a black. Of course, it just incentivizes more betting, entices you to bet. 

30:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No matter what. There's going to be someone who says red is hot, I need to press red, and some guy that stands there and says, oh, red is the due factor on black, we're betting. No matter what, it's just encouraging, just encouraging betting. 

30:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And I think Rob did touch on. The one thing that actually is important within winning more or losing more is you should have a bankroll that's just for sports betting. You should never be betting with like your life's money or money that you might double for rent or anything like that. So if you just have your sports betting bankroll and that's $1,000, your average bet size shouldn't be $100. It should be closer to $10, right. But if you just doubled that bankroll because you went on a massive hot streak, now you have $2,000. In theory, you can now be betting 20, 25, right. So you can bet more based on your bank roll if it grows, and you should bet less. If you now cut that thousand and now you're down to a hundred, then your $10 unit size is too much. So, anyways, great, great observation and that's one that I think I see a lot is like I'm hot, and then you always see when people are hot, more people tail them and then they're just like for what Like. 

31:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
In my inner group of friends this is the most common one by far, like I. You know, like we get together we watch an NFL Sunday at one o'clock. One guy goes like seven and one against the spread Cause he bets every game all the time and then like what's he back for the four o'clock? 

31:29
He pressed. He's like taking all of his profit and he's going to press it on the four o'clock games and it's like you know, it's just not ideal, especially in like an eight game sample. He goes seven to one on eight NFL games which are very close to coin flips. I mean, they are coin flips if you're betting two minutes before the game, like he is anyways. So he's done nothing other than just win seven coin of eight coin flips, yeah, and he thinks that because of that, that like the ninth and tenth and eleventh coin flips are more likely to work in his favor. That's just not the case. 

32:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, misconception number five sports books move the odds. This is a continuation of the last. Sports books move the odds so that they can get an equal amount on each side and then they just profit the juice, the vig that they charge. So this one is. It's funny because people who like say this are typically people who think they know more about sports betting than like the average person. They're like no, you don't get how it works, like the sports book moves it. So they're even no, you don't get how it works, like the sports book moves it. So they're even like, aware of the odds. Odds movement, right, which is, which is a little bit more, even more frustrating. So this is completely false, 100 million percent false. 

32:47
There are going to be some situations where a sports book will move to manage a position, but the goal of trading sports betting is absolutely not to balance the action on either side and just make the juice. This would also be impossible. The reason it's impossible is because the most commonly bet wager types are spread bets or total bets, and on a spread or a total, let's say the game is at Miami Dolphins at home to the Jets, it'd be minus three. If I'm taking a lot of bets on minus three. I can either move the juice to minus 45, minus 55, minus 75, which nobody does or I can move the game to minus three and a half as soon as I move that to minus three and a half. Good luck now with your balance action. How are you going to balance your position? You might take wagers on now the jets at plus three and a half and you had the dolphins at minus three. If it lands three, you just got middled, you just middled yourself scalped. So basically the way it works is what I explained in the previous misconception the better comes in, the better moves it, based on how sharp he or she is, based on the profile of the account, based on the amount of the wager and the time of the day and the amount of the betting limits. If you move it heavy in one way, the sports book could move that and entice action on the other side, but they would be doing so at a complete dog shit price. That doesn't make sense and therefore would actually be losing more money. So the real sportsbooks that are actually booking bets legit and trying to make money are always going to have positions on one side of a game. It'll be extremely rare. 

34:26
I've talked to some people who manage the largest sportsbooks in the world. They will say every day, let's say a slate of MLB games, you have Moneyline, you have Side, you have Total, forget about first half, forget about every player prop, forget about every parlay. By the way, it's another thing. How do you manage position with parlays? Because you might have the Miami Heat and then you might also have the Miami Heat parlayed with the Boston Bruins. Good luck. What if that Bruins won? They both had seven o'clock start. How are you doing that? The goal of the bookmaker and sorry, to finish up, my last thought was on the whole slate of mlb, let's say 15 games on the day, you have spread, you have total, you have money line. So 15 times three bet types per game, you have 45 different things that you will have a bet on. There might be maybe one on the full day where the bookmaker will win regardless of the outcome and where it's balanced and they don't care about the outcome. 

35:22
Every other game they will need one side to win and one side to lose in order to be profitable. They have incredible prices because of the juice and because of the exactly they're able able to win on the total portfolio. But there's, there's just no practical way to balance action in today's sports betting environment and it absolutely doesn't work like that. Nor is it smart to actually balance action. It's better to have plus EV positions as a bookmaker and flow those through your entire, your entire sheet. So you, so you want like okay, top, game one, I have all these good positions. Game two, I have all these good positions. Game three, and then yeah, it's not. It's very, very common for a bookmaker to lose on one day on one sport, like, ah, we lost on mlb today, we may have lost on mlb this weekend, but on the season we're up, totally agree with everything said and for those that don't know, I made it very clear on past episodes as well Johnny has never worked for a sportsbook. 

36:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually have. I've consulted for several sportsbooks before. So people might say, oh, who are you guys to say that? Whether this is true or not, well, I've seen it firsthand with my own personal experience. If you still don't believe that episode 61 of circles off chris bennett we interviewed that, we referenced this interview a lot the director of risk at the time for circus sports since been promoted. Congratulations, chris, by the way, on that. But listen to that episode if you do not understand anything about how bookmaking works, because you're getting it directly from someone who is the at that time director of risk for a massive betting operation circa Las Vegas. So, just if you don't believe us, listen to him, but definitely check out that episode. I'm going to reach into my pocket here for the next example Hold up, send this to. 

37:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if you have buddies that have said these in the past in group chats, whatever it might be, hey, sportsbook set the odds, or balance action, or like oh, vegas knows the spread. What is this guy doing with his fake money, his fake Canadian? 

37:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
dollars. I actually want real money for the video for the next example that I'm going to use. 

37:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, but send this to your buddy. So Zach is clipping these up, where there'll be timestamps for each example. If there's an example, what you can do on YouTube is you can share the video at that exact placement. So go to it, click share. Your buddy will open it up as soon as he clicks it. 

37:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
he's right on that example. Do it Send it out to at least one person today, and there's also a reason that that's one of our most highly viewed interviews of all time. There's a lot of great nuggets in there. Also, if you ever want to check out Matthew Trinhale from Pinnacle Sports, who we had on who's the head of growth trading there as well Another great interview to get into the mind of what a sportsbook operation is like. 

38:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and how it doesn't actually work like most people say. All right, rob's got some Canadian dollars. 

38:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Honestly, this is not planned Like 100%, I would admit, if it was planned. 

38:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But for the listeners on audio Rob has it's about 200, 205, 210 bucks which is honestly the perfect amount to illustrate the next exam. 

38:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, let's see, because, anyways, fading the public I want to talk about this. People ask me all the time this is the most common one I get fading the public, is it a viable strategy, is it not? I'm going to explain to you why fading the public and what people think fading the public is isn't really the exact same thing that they think it is. So I'm going to give Johnny a hundred bucks here in twenties, green twenties. 

38:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm going to keep 110. 

38:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
By the way, I do like Canadian money better than American. It's a little bit easier for me. 

38:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
See the colors and stuff. It's a little more plastic. I think it is plastic, but it's just a little more plastic. So like you can, you don't like it. 

39:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're not a fan, zach, I said durable. Durable yeah, durable this goes through the washing machine all kinds and you know, comes back out like this all right so rob just gave me 100 bucks in 20s. 

39:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay. So when I go to place a bet on an nfl, spread right. Generally speaking, this is the perfect amount of money. 

39:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't believe I actually could not believe I was looking for 110, but then I'm like I'll have 210 exactly 1650. 

39:28
Go ahead, go ahead yeah, I don't want to do 11 and 10 and show people what loonies are in the us. That has sent people into orbit. But if I'm going to place a bet bet on NFL and I'm betting a spread on a game, generally speaking at most books you're paying 10 cents. So if I want to win a hundred bucks, I'm betting 110 to win a hundred. So let's just say Johnny's got his bookmaker's license for a second here and he wants to take my bet. I'm risking 110 to win 100 from him. We don't really need the money for this example, but I do like the visual anyways. 

40:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so you're paying the 110 to win 100. If Rob wins, I pay him his 110 back, plus this 100. 

40:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So let's say, I'm the public side. Okay, I'm on the side. You went to some website and you saw that 69% of the bets are on the Falcons this week and you don't want. You want to be on the other side because you want to fade the public. You're fading Rob. You want to be on the side of Johnny. Johnny's the book, right. Well, guess what? You're not going to be on the exact same side as Johnny, because Johnny has a bet right now of $100 to win $110. His bet is $100 to win $110. You want to be on the same side as Johnny. You got to put down $110 to win $100. 

40:45
It's not apples to apples. It's not the exact same thing. The luxury that the sportsbook has and why the public generally loses is because there's a vig on the bets. It's this extra 10 bucks is the vig right here on the bet, where this is the built-in edge. If you go to a casino, you play casino games, there's built-in edge. This is the built-in edge in sports betting. And now, in order for you to fade the public, you want to be on the same side as the book. You're paying 110 to win 100. You're not paying 100 to win 110. There's about a 5% difference in the win rate that is needed for you to win your bet. So this whole strategy is not apples to apples. There's no blind strategies that you can just go out and like, copy them word for word, like implement them where you're just going to win money. 

41:40
These are betting markets. This is not the way it works. If, all of a sudden, only underdogs were winning, everyone knew that the market would adjust to that. If it was all the anti-public sides that were winning, every single week, the market would adjust to that. Over enough time the market catches up to that. So use this as an example. Think about this every single time. If you want to be at the side of the book, you want to be on the side of Johnny's favorite Vegas or whatever offshore book regulated book you're not getting the same price, and price is the most important thing with betting. So just be very, very cognizant of that. And this is why people think I have this vendetta against the fade, the public people. They don't really understand what they're preaching. They really don't. The whole thing is the whole premise is built on. Well, go look at the Vegasgas strip, you know. You see all the buildings there. How did those get built? Well, mostly from casino money, not sports betting money first and foremost. But this is the whole premise that casino is the same. 

42:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's the same. 

42:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Shit, it's the same it's the same shit, it's. This is the whole premise that this was built on, and people get fall into this trap all the time. You can't, you know, forget about like. This is just purely a mathematical. I can go on for days about how the numbers you're looking at in terms of the public bet percentages are meaningless because they're mostly coming from sports books, who limit sharp action anyways. There's more and more to this, but this principle is very understandable, right? It's not the same bet. You're never getting the same bet as the sports book. If you could, then sure, but like those are, that would be an off market price. Those don't exist. So remember, every time you bet you pay a VIG, you're paying extra money to be on the same side as the sports book, and Johnny's can to give me my hundred bucks back as well. 

43:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But, for example, throw this in the middle I'm pinnacle right now and Rob's the better. Okay, he just threw in 110. I throw in 100. Whoever wins their bet, which is 50-50, takes it. Whose side do you want to be on, exactly? So it's fine to bet that 110 if you feel that you're not 50-50. But to just say, oh, I want to be on the side of the bookie, like, if I win that bet, I just grab 210, now for my 100. If Rob wins the bet, he grabs 100. It's very, very black and white here. You cannot just say I want to be on the side of the bookmaker. You should want to be on the side of the bookmaker at the price of the bookmaker. 

44:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I generally think and again, we can do like a very, very big episode on this at some point or another Generally speaking, I think that thinking contrarian, not only in sports betting but in life, is a good habit to have. I believe that Some people may disagree. This is just pure opinion, but I think being contrarian, thinking outside the box, more so than just, like you know, fading everything that everybody's going to do, but just thinking outside the box, I think that's a good quality to have. But this is just like sheep to the slaughter type of stuff with the fade, the public stuff, because it's not the same thing and you have to understand that it's not the same thing all right. 

44:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So my fourth and final example number seven sports betting myths is and this one it's it's a myth, and we'll explain exactly why it's a myth here is parlays are sucker bets, okay. So, generally speaking, when you hear someone bet a parlay like this guy's a massive square or you might say, hey, this guy is a massive winner, he won this big parlay. And a lot of people, when someone posts a parlay, a 5X parlay, they'll be like, oh, this guy, he can't be a winner, he's betting parlays. So all I want to do is explain what an actual parlay is for everybody. All you are doing is just pre-placing all of the next bets with the same amount of money. So if I want to place a $10 parlay and I now do two games plus $100 on each game, the payout on that is going to be $10 for $30. Yep, three to one, assuming plus $100, plus 100, you're getting fair parlay odds. So you'll be betting 10 for 30. Okay, this is just the exact same as me placing, let's say uh, my parlay is the perfect example. 

46:05
Jays are playing a double header. First, the white socks game one. They're plus 100, and this is a 1 pm eastern start. Game two is a 7 pm eastern start and they're also plus 100 in both games. So if I place a bet on the jays in game one, 10 bucks, wins, returns another 10. So wins 20, returns 20, wins 10. So now I place 10 bet on the jays. I got an extra 10 back because they won that game. Now I have 20. I roll over that 20, place it on the Jays for the night game. I win that bet, they give me another 20. I staked up my initial 10. I've doubled up. Then I've doubled up again. I now have $40 in my possession. Okay, so I bet the Jays and then I rolled it over and bet the Jays again. This is the exact equivalent as if I just bet the Jays parlayed with the Jays. Double equivalent as if I just bet the Jays parlayed with the Jays, double header day night, plus 100, plus 100. I'm going to risk my 10. I'm going to get 30. So in total, in both scenarios I have the exact same amount of money. I won the exact same amount of money In the first scenario. 

47:08
If I bet on the Jays game one and they lose and I don't re-up on game two, which is the same as a parlay, I'm out 10 bucks. If I bet on the Jays in game one, they win, they lose game two. I had doubled up. I'm down 10 bucks. So in both scenarios, all you're actually doing is just rolling your money over. 

47:26
A parlay is not some trick. It's not some like oh, this is crazy. This thing is for suckers. You're taking so much like different stuff here, taking more vig. It's not how it works. All you're doing is rolling more over. 

47:37
The reason why parlays are generally bad it's because people just say I'm gonna risk a dollar, I'm gonna try to win 10 000 on that dollar, and they put in a bunch of positions and each of those positions in general are negative ev positions. 

47:52
And when you have all negative EV positions in a parlay, you're even more likely to lose because you just compounded your edge and most of the time you're playing super general long shots that are usually not going to hit. So people think, ah, if he's betting parlays, this guy sucks. But and it's mostly true and if you see someone betting parlays on Twitter and they're posting five-team parlays of all these player props and same game parlays, yeah, it probably sucks. I'll say it as it is most likely is not a winning bet, but just to educate on what a parlay actually is. I think it's super important for people to realize is that the parlay itself is not the bad part. The bad part is that you're just dunking a bunch of money. It's the same as just betting a 100 straight bets and having them all be negative EV positions. You're going to lose the same amount Yep and there's one thing I will add to that. 

48:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Actually, it's a very good explanation. So, like, just understanding what a parlay is is very important. Before you any bet type. Before you want to dunk on a bet type, you should understand it. In you know it's complete completion. 

48:51
Another thing with parlays are suckers bets. Talk to any pro about ways to work around getting limited on an account as well. I'm not saying this like listen, I don't have the insights to every single sports book and how to like avoid getting limited. But generally speaking, if you are winning better, oftentimes you might wanna use a parlay as a tool to avoid detection. It's not foolproof. Some books profile very differently from others. Again, I have some experience in this, having consulted for sports books before. But there's way more to parlays than just they're a sucker's bet. For a lot of people they will be a sucker's bet. Like Johnny said. Some people, as he said, which I enjoyed. Some people suck. He as he said, which I enjoyed. Some people suck, they just suck at betting and it is what it is like. That's just the reality of the situation. But for a lot of people they can be useful and understanding how they work you can use that to your advantage yeah, and and just so, just so we're clear here, I'm not recommending playing parlays. 

49:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
In fact, I would strongly recommend you don't play parlays and only play straight bets. But, with that being said, I did want to like take the time to actually explain like what it is. But, yes, for a general rule of thumb, if you're starting out, if you're someone who your buddy sent you this episode, you're trying to learn like some misconceptions and you are playing parlays right now, 99.9% of the time time, you should just cut those out completely and not play them, and that's what I would recommend for that. Um, newer, type of better or existing better, who might be experienced is trying to look at ways to, you know, win a little bit more final one for me. 

50:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This one drives me nuts. Sports books try to bait you with odds boosts. This one's like the galaxy brain meme you know all the time and I've talked about this recently for more of the recent viewers Odds boosts are just a promotional tool for the sportsbook. Johnny's already talked about how betting markets work things of that nature. There's no baiting happening. 

51:03
All of this began when I believe I could be wrong, but I believe it was DraftKings this year that offered an odds boost on Justin Herbert to throw a touchdown pass. One plus touchdown pass odds boost and in that game Justin Herbert did not throw a touchdown pass and immediately the conspiracy theory started. First and foremost, when you're looking at a range of a quarterback's outcomes of throwing a touchdown pass, zero is a possibility. It's always going to be a possibility for any quarterback. There could be injury in the game. There's just lots of games where they don't throw touchdown passes, so it's going to happen. But that bet on that night happened to be a very good bet that didn't win and there's no baiting that's happening here. 

51:48
This is again just a marketing tool. If there was baiting into this, ask yourself why most sportsbooks are limiting you to 50 bucks on an odds boost. If they actually knew the outcome of the game and were baiting you into betting something that was a horrible bet, predetermined, why would they only let you bet 50 bucks into your account? Just think about that like from a logical perspective. For all the conspiracy theories, sports are fixed, predetermined. The sports books Vegas knew whoever else knew like. Why would you? Why would you not just be able to bet whatever you wanted on an odds. 

52:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
People are literally saying now if a book boosted, I'm betting the other side on purpose at the regular odds instead of the boosted odds. 

52:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Use odds boosts to your advantage. Honestly. Now I'm not saying, go and bet every single odds boost on the planet, because not every single one is a good bet. But the beauty of odds boosts is you can almost always price out this bet at every other sports book, or you can even take four or five other sports books. Right, let's say something is boosted to plus 200 and now you go to five other sports books and you take a look at what the price is. Oh, pinnacle has this at plus 100. You know other sports book has this at minus 110 and you're getting plus 200. Guess what? That's a good bet and you should make that. 

53:13
Now, oftentimes there's odds boosts that just aren't very good. You can go and price shop, you can compare to other sports books and be like oh, this isn't actually a great price. I can get a better price if I go bet it over here. Then don't bet that. But the notion of being baited with the odds boost I can't even and again, this is from experience. In my lifetime I've experienced this. The amount of effort that goes into picking an odds boost is equivalent to somebody throwing a dart at a wall and it just lands on a ramp. There's literally times where someone will just pick. 

53:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hold up, just so people know we're a sports betting affiliate at BetStamp. Here. A lot of sports books will just come and we have a rep with them and they'll say, hey, you want to pick a BetStamp odds boost for today and we just send them in whatever we want. 

54:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They literally let us pick it before. 

54:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We were picking the odds boosts for other books For multiple, not like we still do. 

54:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it's absolutely just a random thing, like it's not, like they're crazy picking and I can assure you that we don't sit in some boardroom together as a bet stamp team and be like oh what could we bait the people into betting? We bet the odds boosts that we pick ourselves because they were bets that we want to have this. I don't know where this started. I don't know how it's still going. Honestly, I don't like blanket rules of thumb on anything, but I'll give a blanket rule of thumb here. If someone preaches to you that sports books are trying to bait you with odds boosts and to not bet these and even further, like Johnny said, to actually go out and bet the opposite sides at like horrible prices, their opinion on sports betting should be dismissed entirely. Like this is non-negotiable. This is there's. There's nothing to this and I cannot preach that enough from personal experience multiple times in life. 

55:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But Well, okay, a lot of times now sports will, sports books will put up like 25 odds boosts and half of them are not like the vast majority are not actually good bets and they just they're just a little bit better than they were, but they're not trying to like it's. It's crazy, like the ones that are actual, true promo bets, like that justin herbert bet, people were acting as if when that loss, people were like reacting as if the bet was like justin herbert to attempt one pass like, which is that one would be nearly like a travesty if he lost, but this one's like had a very you can bet how many passes will justin herbert, how many passing tds will you have? Zero, one, two, three plus and the zero is not like it's probably it's, it's definitely not even like it's not 20 to one, like it's under that, like it's within the realm of possibilities look at some of the odds boosts for the Super Bowl every year. 

55:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, there are legitimately odds boosts that cannot lose Sportsbooks will offer. Will there be a point in the game at plus 100? It is basically a free $50 for you if you bet that, like there's no fix, the game isn't getting canceled. There's not going to be like a bomb threat that calls the game off and everyone's going to lose their 50 bucks. 

56:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Super Bowl's getting played every year Like they did each team to score a point. Now, is that a guarantee? Technically, no, you could get shut out Exactly, but like at plus 100, like that's. That's just a promo. You take it anyways. We got a new segment as well. We do. To close off, I'm a little short on time so I'm only going to give one this week. Um, unacceptable, I will give. So what's the segment? 

56:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
okay, cue it up so plus ev, minus ev every week that we don't have a guest on here we're going to talk about. It doesn't doesn't have to be related to sports. Sometimes we'll try to keep it to it. But each of us myself, johnny and zach give out a piece of, uh, life advice or sports advice or whatever, just anything that we think is positive expected value and a piece that is negative expected value. So johnny's johnny will kick it off. He's going to give out one for this week, all right. 

57:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So this week I'll give out. I'll give it a negative ev. Play my. This is all opinion based, by the way. I'm not saying I'm right, not saying I'm wrong. This is my opinion on all of these and I'll try to keep them not that obvious ones, okay. So massive negative ev. Buying anybody a card to accompany a gift or ask their gift, which is even more negative EV. So rationale behind this? Okay, this is for everything birthday, wedding, anything we just went to a wedding this past weekend. 

57:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You didn't buy a card Like what do you put the money in? You gotta put it in a card. 

57:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I had somebody else take care of it for me. Would you do like a crypto transfer? You interact? I had I had a buddy's fiancee added grab a card and I said at like, just loop me in on this and here's the, here's the cash. So, so, like that was just the the solution around it, that that was more in regards to me, just not like being in a tight for time on that day and not every time to go actually physically grab a card. Yep, but in general, cards now inflation way up. 

58:22
You're gonna go buy a buddy a birthday card. You're looking at seven. You're looking at, honestly, between six and ten dollars it's actually a joke for the envelope and the card. Okay, when you're looking at giving them a gift let's say you're giving your buddy or you're giving your nephew. You're giving your nephew, who's seven years old, $100 for his birthday and you're paying 7% tax to put that in a card that he's never going to use, ever, never even going to. Probably may not even be able to read the card depending on the age If they're young enough can't even read the card Completely useless, throwing straight in the garbage. You're buying your nephew a card, take that money, give him, hand him $107 and say, hey, I didn't get you a card, but this is life, you don't need this card. There's $7. You're going to invest it. Compound this. When you're 30 years old you're going to thank me because I'm giving you so much more than everyone else has given you. A hundred in the card Massive negative EV buying a card. 

59:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually strongly agree with you. I went so we had a wedding this past weekend. I'll show a picture. You probably won't be able to see it on here. We don't have the zoomed in view, but this is a Shoppers Drug Mart wedding card aisle right now Completely sold out of wedding cards. I even asked someone do you have more in the back? Completely sold out. So this business is thriving right now. But yeah, I just called home to my wife Diana. I said do we have any like random cards lying around the house? She's like yeah, there's one here that says thinking of you. I said, boom, that's our wedding card. 

59:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Cash in the envelope, put a little sticky note hey, it's a joke man, you want for a card, Are you, are you? 

01:00:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not cheap, but like these things, you still go to the dollar store and pay a dollar for it. 

01:00:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You literally throw that out and listen. This is just another another play here, and anyone who listens to this podcast you know the same me. But bad for the environment as well. Save that environmental stuff. 

01:00:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's good man, let's say you're coming around you're recycled, by the way. 

01:00:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, I do recycle where applicable, but here's what. Here's what I'm also saying. Like you're also just buying that and that's literally going straight in the trash. Like, if you keep cards, you're a psychopath. 

01:00:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
If you keep all the birthday cards you ever got for your life. 

01:00:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're a psychopath. You throw those out anyways, immediately. What is the point? Anyways, rob. So that's my negative EV play of the week, all right. 

01:00:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Zach, let's hit you plus EV and minus EV. 

01:00:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
All right. So, first and foremost, I got the positive EV play. Here is Phil Mickelson going to live All right, secures the bag, gambling debt's gone, that's it. And yeah, it looked bad in the moment but at the end of the day, like this guy changed the face of golf here, all these PGA guys, they're going to be getting paid. He's going to be coming back to the PGA Like that whole little legacy period it's going to be at some point. People are just going to look past it, they're not going to care and he's walking away with an absolute bag. So he's walking away with an absolute bag. So, basically, what I'm going to say here is if someone offers you that much money, take it. Like if the Saudi betting network hits me up, rob. 

01:01:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm gone, dude, nobody can recruit Zach away from the hammer. We're very reliant on Zach right now. That's a message to people out there. But yeah, I agree on the Mickelson stuff. Like in the moment he looked like a bit of a scumbag. 

01:01:43
Listen, like michael vick ran like a dog fighting like and I just like back in broadcasting now like people don't people get over this shit. So like when you're offered life changing money, I'm not saying you do whatever you want it. You, you do. You make your own decisions as a person. And there's like a humanitarian side of things. And I'm not saying like Saudis have done some bad things, like I'm not supporting that, but like he's now in the situation where he's just he's having a good laugh at everything that's happening. You know he's having a good laugh. 

01:02:14
I just I like the Harold Varner move more than Mick Cause Harold Varner went to live and everybody's getting asked that like why are you going to live? And good golf and this and that. And Varner just came out and straight up said he's like bro, he's like the next. You know, 20 generations of Varners don't have to work a day in their life. Like I would be an idiot not to do that and like anyone who's saying otherwise, that that I respected a lot. But I agree with you, zach minus ev for you, zach. 

01:02:43 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Okay, minus ev. Uh, we're having to deal with this right now, or I guess I am at this point. We just moved the office downtown and it's just driving downtown. It is fucking hell like. There's no other way around it. I haven't moved down here yet. Um, it's a rough goal driving down here today to record this it's raining. I haven't really dealt with driving downtown when it was raining like bad weather or anything like that. Now, not necessarily to say it was horrible weather, but it's just it's. 

01:03:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's hell like yeah, a commute is negative, that's listen, no one's gonna argue that to a major city. It sucks. Commuting anywhere is negative vb. 

01:03:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No one's gonna argue that ever so basically, sometimes I, sometimes I like to go for like a bike ride or something. 

01:03:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Go bike around your house, around the block, and then you at least don't have it's like people saying, oh, I wanted to get a spot that was a 35 minute walk away from work, because then I get to walk 35 minutes into work every day. Okay, buddy, buddy, get a spot one minute away from work and walk around the block for 35 minutes if you want not the same. 

01:03:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, it's not the same because listen, I agree with you most community it actually is the same, it is the same no, it's. You see, I want to walk I want to walk 30 minutes to work? 

01:03:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
okay, great, go walk 30 15 minutes one way, then walk back a different way and and walk 30 minutes to work you can always walk longer to work, you can walking okay, it's you see no, no, no, there's just no way. 

01:04:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You walk by the dog park or whatever. 

01:04:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Anyways, you can make your work. So let's say you walk. Let's say you live a minute away from work. Yeah, you can make your walk to work as long as you fucking want. 

01:04:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, of course you could. 

01:04:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You could do, do whatever you want you can. 

01:04:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can never make a 30 minute walk a one minute walk. 

01:04:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can make a one minute walk a 30 minute walk, okay, therefore, you're safe to say oh, I'd rather be 30 away because I like to walk into work every day. Well, you could do that anyways. Okay, you could literally live in the same building, yeah as you were a different path and walk. 

01:04:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can walk 30 minutes to work. That I fair point. I did not think of that. Uh, plus EV. It's funny because probably if you asked me this five years ago, I would have said this is minus EV. But my whole perspective has changed. Plus EV attending live sporting events. 

01:04:52
There was a part in my life where I was like why would I want to go to this game when I could sit at home on the couch, be comfortable, eat whatever I want, blah, blah, blah. This last week in Toronto we had the RBC Canadian Open Fantastic event. I was able to get out there go see live golf in person. It's so fun, it's amazing and like these people are amazing, like seeing professional athletes up that close, especially if you golf yourself, and you're like, oh my God, like the way that these guys hit the ball absurdly good. On top of that, I took my godson to his first blue jays game on the weekend on sunday, seven, six jays comeback against the twins, uh, with a couple home runs. Kid had a blast, I had a blast. 

01:05:36
Forgot how fun it was going out to live sporting events. So do it as often as possible. It's easy to just like get sucked into, like nowadays, and like we're lazy or at home we have everything we could want on our couch. Get out there. You just don't have those feels if you're sitting at home on your couch. Minus EV this is a betting related one See this a lot and I saw it this week Again. Positive Rob, I've turned a new leaf. I'm not going to roast anyone or anything like that, or else I'd be a hypocrite within one way. 

01:06:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
With that being said, he's about to roast someone, so let's see who's gonna know, but I want to. 

01:06:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is a larger. This is not a personal attack. 

01:06:14 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's not at those shitty points bet traders. But don't. 

01:06:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Please, let's not get into this like that again. Let's not pretend we didn't work for points bet. Let's not pretend that this didn't happen. Okay, like, come on people, I know who people are out there, you don't have to pretend like anyways, minus EV, I don't care about points bet, by the way, I don't care. It's the hypocrisy of like thinking you're changing, like everything, the betting community for like anyways, and now half people don't even understand what you're talking about I look like a complete like it's like an old man you know, you know and yells at cloud type of moment. 

01:06:51
I'm done with that minus ev. Do not reference the pre-game betting line. When you say that your live bet was a good bet, okay. You cannot say, oh, my live bet was, you know, my live bet of plus 14 was good because the pregame line was plus eight. Stuff happened in the game that is changing the lot. This is why we have live lines. There's things that happen in the game, there's injuries, there's whatever team could be shooting poorly or whatever. You cannot say, oh, I would make that bet a hundred times out of a hundred at plus eight, plus 14, because the the pre-game closes plus eight. 

01:07:31
It's not how this works. You have to adapt to new information. So please, first of all, don't do that. If you're just doing that as a betting strategy, it's not a good one of just being like oh, pregame closed. Here I'm going to just try to get everything like around that pregame number Not the greatest, especially with the amount of VIG and the live line. But on top of that, do not use this as like a way to pat yourself on the back. It's like a closing line value argument that doesn't exist it. It's not the same information. So that's it Plus EV, minus EV. 

01:08:05
One announcement before we're out this week 90 degrees here on the Circles, off channel, youtube and podcast form. We'll continue, but without Kevin Davis. We had Kevin Davis on a couple weeks ago. Big life change for Kevin. He's the best. Still love kevin, talk to him all the time. He cannot do the show anymore, cannot do 90 degrees. Don't want to get into the reasons why. It's like no falling out, no firing, nothing like that. It's all good, everything is good, but kevin davis will no longer be the host of 9K. 

01:08:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let me just say it. He took another job in the industry that prohibits him from now doing the pot. I think that's fair to say and it's perfectly acceptable, and we're super happy for Kevin. 100%. 

01:08:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's the best. So we were scouring for hosts and it's just common there's a lot of guys out there that love this guy. There's Egg Pete. 

01:09:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's a shipper the shipper sprats better the points back, all those guys, I heard that the fanatics as they, the fanatics, they are huge fans. 

01:09:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, there's like real frank costanza too. There's a. There's a bunch of them out there that are huge fans of g stack, george George Sifilidis, who will be taking over as the head coach, as the host of 90 Degrees starting next week. George Sifilidis will be in the chair. We welcome him to the Hammer Betting Network, not only in the co-host role for 90 Degrees, but also for some stuff on Forward Progress. If you're not subscribed to Forward Progress on YouTube or in podcast form that's the NFL content division of the Hammer I'd highly suggest you do so. But G-Stack George Sifilidis, you can watch Kevin Davis. By the way, none of this was planned, by the way. I cannot believe how this worked out. You can watch Kevin Davis's last interview with George Cifalitis. Somehow this worked out right here. You can listen to it in audio form as well. 

01:10:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We had Kevin on here, Kevin had George on and then we did an alto transition. 

01:10:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's honestly, though, like we really wanted to. I love Kevin a lot and I wanted him to get like his shining moment and like learn more about his story. Got a lot of good feedback from people who like get to see the side of Kevin's personality that a lot of people don't know about. But leave it to me Like this is my luck in life as a person that we would do like a show with Kevin to promo 90 degrees, and within two weeks he has to leave, but we wish him the best. George sifilidis. Tune in for him next week. 

01:10:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, let's have a good week everyone. It's going to be a sick week. Let's sign up for everyone. Sign up for one new sports book. If you don't have it, grab a bonus. Mlb got some. Ufc we got some, a bunch of different stuff. Sign up for a new book. Wwwbetstampapp. Slash circles off link in description. Qr code on screen. Sign up for one new book. See you guys all next week. Peace.