00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off, we're going to talk about a variety of topics and we're going to start with draft betting. Is it over? Is there a future for it? Should content creators be able to give out picks on the draft? We'll talk about that. Of course, the closing line value debate comes up again and again in Gambling Twitter. We'll speak about that. Does closing line value matter? Are there instances where it doesn't? And then we're going to end off with plus ev and minus ev. Myself, johnny zach, give out our positive expected value. Negative expected value takes of the week. It's a jam-packed episode of circles off and it starts now. Come on, let's go. Welcome to circles off, episode number 108, right here on the hammer bettingting Network, rob Pizzola, joined as always by Johnny from BetStamp, and you might set up this week. 

00:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The people are finally getting what they asked for. I'm fidgeting too much with the stand-up mic that Rob currently has. Producer Zach set up the monitor arm sorry, the mic arm. Let's see how it goes today. I'm also on a new chair mic arm. Let's see how it goes today. So I'm also on a new chair, yeah, it's uh listen, not my perfect, not my personal preference favorite chair. I feel like when we get the new table I'm gonna have to pick out a better chair and, um, you know, I'll definitely be springing in on a better chair here. It's important, you know, for the back, but through about 45 seconds of the episode right now I will say I'm liking the arm. I do like the monitor, the mic arm. 

01:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So there was one comment that came in on last week's episode with Professor Shine about Johnny not asking a whole lot of questions. So during that episode I could see the pain that Johnny was going through in the existing chair we had in there with him and I told him off air before we started. I'm like, dude man, like next time that happens we record these episodes. These are not live. 

01:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was the headphone thing too. I just didn't want to interrupt the headphones. 

01:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Three weeks ago. Zach comes up to me too. He's like hey, you got to talk to Johnny man about the microphone. I'm like, hey, you got to talk to Johnny man about the microphone. Like what are you talking about? He's like man, he's always like picking it up and putting it down and like makes these loud banging noises. And he's like I have to adjust the levels, it takes me an extra hour. I'm like you set up a different mic, mic arm form. 

02:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You wanted this mic. Now we're all good. We need better chairs, obviously. No, big time, big time. And honestly, my headphones last week midway through the episode the right ear was like faded and it was just popping in and out and I was just getting a headache from. I'm like, oh my god. But I didn't, I didn't stop it. I tried unplugging and plugging that's why I was taking him off a little. But uh, we trucked through. It shine great episode last week and uh, we are here today with 108, so number eight we have my favorite player growing up was number eight which was troy aikman troy 

02:50
my favorite player growing up. 

02:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Not bad. Who else you got for number eight? Okay, so number eight. Well, quarterbacks. I know kirk cousins wears eight, now lamar jackson, but cal ripken jr wore Major League Baseball. Are you familiar with the Cal Ripken Jr conspiracy theory? No, not at all, zach. Are you familiar with the conspiracy? Because we had you doing conspiracy theories for a while for YouTube Shorts. Do you remember it? 

03:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, but no, I don't. I'm not going to say it because I'm going to get the details of it wrong. 

03:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay. So there's a bunch of different ones, but they all are relatively related to the exact same thing, which was Cal Ripken Jr was going to miss a game for the Baltimore Orioles. He had the Ironman streak going, so they just basically unplugged the lights or caused a power outage so that they had to cancel the Orioles game at Camden Yards so that his Ironman streak wouldn't get ruined. Why was he going to miss the game? So this is even better. But the conspiracy theories or the reports were that Kevin Costner, I believe. 

03:59
The story is that Kevin Costner slept with Cal Ripken Jr's wife, or was caught sleeping with Cal Ripken Jr's wife, or was caught sleeping with Cal Ripken Jr's wife and they got into an altercation. They basically got into a fist fight and either Costner knocked him out or Ripken Jr was like he was just like too broken up to like go into the ballpark. But this has never been like debunked or proven in any way. People just like dance around it. They don't talk about it too much, but apparently, yeah, he was like either too traumatized to play or too hurt and uh, there was a power outage just conveniently when he was gonna and he didn't miss his iron man and he didn't miss his iron man and he went on with that. 

04:42
I just I don't know about that like the the Kevin, the Kevin Costner stuff seems like pretty far-fetched, because apparently this was like around Field of Dreams time. He was sleeping over at Ripken. Like, imagine, like you're sleeping over at Ripken's house, it seems a little bit far-fetched that you would go sleep with his wife while you're there. That's tough, I mean, if you're, let's just say you wanted to, you know, insert yourself into another marriage. You're probably not doing it while you're sleeping over at their house. 

05:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's a tough look. I mean, speaking of Ironman, not number eight, but number 81. Okay, three-time cup champion. Yeah, phil Kessel, phil Kessel man, how does he do it? 

05:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Didn't even play in the playoffs he forced out of Toronto due to eating too many hot dogs. For those that don't know, that are not Toronto sports. That's quite literally. There was an article written about him. Who was it? Steve Simmons? Yeah, that wrote the article about him eating too many hot dogs, said he had his own personal hot dog vendor. 

05:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I have two quick number eights, two of, uh, some would argue, the worst defenseman in leafs history ackieberg, yes, and mike, commissary awful on both accounts. 

05:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Commissary came into the league with such potential and then just like really shit, the bed really quickly. I liked some eights. They'll grow like. One of my favorite players was always team usulani oh. And. 

06:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I used to play like he wasn't number eight, though when he did that, glove sell-in. 

06:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think so, for Winnipeg. He was like 70-something, yeah, 76, maybe, hopefully my memory is You're talking about, when he threw the glove up in the air and shot it. 

06:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, his legendary yeah. What tough to see 13 and 13 in that look up the one where you find the where you threw it up. Damn damn, that's not. 

06:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's no good team, is so any mark recce was another favorite of mine that war eight, but also special place in my heart. I hated him as a player but loved him in his acting role in dumb and dumber as sea bassass. Cam Neely wore number eight To this day, I think, still my favorite role by an actor, by an athlete, as an actor in any movie. Just an epic character. Truck stop, like the whole thing, is just such a good scene. 

07:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Cam Neely. Guys, I think I might be out to lunch on Salani. He was 13. He definitely wore, Guys. I think I might be out to lunch on Solani, it was 13. 

07:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He definitely wore eight, right, I'm not out to lunch? 

07:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No no, he wore eight on his second stint. 

07:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, because I remember Solani wearing eight, this picture that's up in front of us here, which we'll insert into the broadcast. 

07:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Is he? Wearing eight there 13 on this one, that's 13. 

07:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
In that one, too, Solani was the best man. Was that a Jofa helmet as well? Oh yeah, he wore it his whole career. Those were disgusting. 

07:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was like the last guy to wear the Jofa helmet. 

07:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Jager wore one for a while no. 

07:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think, jaramir. 

07:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Jager wore one of those disgusting Jofa helmets. They're so funny to look at now. 

07:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, he wore that well into his like. This guy was still playing like when was his last year? He played long. He was like played one year where they're like he's only going to play half the games for workload yeah. 

07:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He did. Yeah, yeah, he's awesome. 

07:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Those Jofa helmets are nuts. And then what always gets me is every time I see old hockey highlights of like the guys like Chris Osgood that wore. Like Osgood that wore like those stupid masks with the player hockey goalie helmet, the player hockey goalie helmet with the the like neck protector thing that they yeah, yeah, that would always used to get shattered or fly off their helmet whenever they got hit with a shot. 

08:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I can't even believe Dominic Hasek Hasek wore them? 

08:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And um what was his name with the Bruins Uh? 

08:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tim Thomas. No, tim had a different mask. He had a different mask. Tim Thomas didn't have a player mask, by the way, he had a version of. 

08:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He had like a custom mask. 

08:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He had, like the mask that Dominic Haschuk used to wear at the end of his career. It's a different one. It's way different than the Osgood mask. You look at Thomas' mask. That was his mask. It's still a goalie mask. 

08:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just yeah, those listening. But if you do want to look it up, you can look up tim thomas mask and you'll see exactly what we're talking about. 

08:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tim thomas also literally came out of nowhere and was the best goalie in history. 

08:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For one season he was unreal man like and won the cup. He I listen, I I don't get into like political stuff, for I don't really care about that stuff, which what are your political beliefs are whatever but he got canceled like, did he? Well, he was like one of the first people Honestly didn't even hear about this. Okay, this was long time ago, I think. I think Tim Thomas was like one of the first people Athletes. 

09:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wait for what. What do you do To? 

09:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
ever be. These pictures are too funny that Zach's bringing up. 

09:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No mouth guard. Look at that Exposed jibs. 

09:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't remember what he did. He like okay, like. Tim Thomas hasn't spoken about anything publicly since his retirement from the NHL in 2014. He's never returned to the TD garden for any Bruins events since a split with the team back in 2012. That wasn't really all that amicable. I don't really remember like what it was. Oh, he refused to meet meet barack obama at the white house. That's what it was. That's what it was. 

09:52
Now, listen never, you just never went I yeah, he, the team went like he just refused I'm pretty sure multiple people now, since then. 

09:58
It's happened a million times, but he was like the first guy that said like no, no, I'm not. I'm not going to the white house or whatever. And I don't remember if it was political beliefs or whatever, it doesn't matter what it was, but like that he was. He was one of the first. I'll never forget tim todd. He just like dropped off the face of the earth, completely dropped off the face of the earth. You know he's not dropping off the face of the earth, they're actually growing in market share. That would be the Pinnacle Sportsbook, now available to bettors in Ontario. They're the world's sharpest sportsbook. You can find out what professional bettors have known for decades Pinnacle's where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus in Ontario, please play responsibly. Not available to those in the US. The Hammer Betting Network circles off here. 

10:44
I've been partnered with pinnacle for a long time. We're expanding that partnership going forwards. So starting in july we'll be producing a lot more educational content in a shorter form variety. So listen, we get all your feedback all the time you have questions. We answer them in q and a's. But, like I said last week, sometimes people ask us questions and we're like, yeah, we can't turn that into a 45 one hour minute episode. That's a two to three minute talking point. We'll start putting out some more videos for that. So make sure you're subscribed here on Circles Off and, of course, make sure that you subscribe to notifications. You get new alerts whenever we post new episodes. 90 Degrees is coming in hot G-Stack. George syphilitis had his first episode last week with whale capper. That was a great listen. Actually I've been. He got whale capper before we did. He's been on the podcast before. 

11:33
Yeah, in some shape or form we had him live from the super bowl row media row twice fucking big shot drew dynsic super bowl. Uh, super bowl media row. 

11:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So speaking of the draft, actually let's go for it. Did you bet the draft NBA? I did yeah. It would have been last Thursday, so a week from when this episode's out. How'd you do? 

11:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I did well. It was the fifth overall pick that I did really well on, which was can't even tell you, it was the twin brother that went second, osner Osner Thompson. Yeah, like let's. Let's be honest here. This is open forum, for I don't follow the nba closely, but I work with different people on different sports and some of them are very like good with information and they'll reach out to me and be like, hey, I'm pretty sure like this guy's gonna go here and over the years you just start to weed out the guys who aren't reliable, right? Like, wow, this guy gave me this tip and it like it didn't work out. But there are some guys that are pretty money when it comes to that. So I I hit that, tailed a few other bets, did well, took that the free money on the number one overall pick made a couple hundred bones there. 

12:43
That's not bad, it's not bad at all. I mean, stay tuned to our plus ev, minus ev segment later on. I'll piggyback off that a little bit interesting if they're going to give. 

12:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you follow the steam second overall? I did not, did you? 

12:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
take scoot. I didn't, I didn't, I didn't have a bet on second overall. Everybody had an opinion on second overall because there's the Woj versus Shams. But no, that's not how. I prefer to bet the draft right Like there's too much uncertainty. 

13:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, you want the guaranteed stone cold lock of the week winner. 

13:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
NFL draft, I'll do differently because I follow the NFL way more, right? So if I have a strong opinion personally on something that I think will happen, even if it's not rooted in information, I might bet it. We have the NHL draft this week as well, right? Zach and Alex Moreto have been doing some NHL draft content. If they feel strongly about something, they'll bet it. It's a sport they follow more closely, but the NBA I don't have a clue, right? Some people are like, oh, this owner, he'll do this. 

13:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This GM has full autonomy, right? I don't know that stuff. Like I, I can't make an informed decision, right? You see what happened with the uh, the old shams I did I. I did see what happened with the old champ. So some people called it a sham, some people maybe they explain the situation for the listeners here. 

14:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sham wow, sham, wow. So we'll bring up a tweet here that's just from Jin Varlock at Jin NBA says Shams might be in trouble Thoughts and he tagged Shams in it and it's basically a link to the Wall Street Journal article with the title Reporters tweet moved NBA draft odds. He also works for a gambling company, so, and Shams works for the Athletic, he also works for FanDuel as well, and-. 

14:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It doesn't really work for FanDuel. 

14:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He has a partnership with. 

14:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
FanDuel. I wouldn't say he's like a fan, that's not. I don't think that's his main thing, right. 

14:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So the focus of this article was around the fact that Shams got the second overall pick wrong, publicly tweeted it. And there is it's from the perspective of a, I believe, an Indiana-based college bettor who basically threw down I think it was $1,000 or $1,300 on Scoot Henderson to go second overall and lost. And the kid came out afterwards and said oh, I typically only bet a couple hundred bucks, but I trust Sham so much that as soon as, as soon as he tweeted it, like I, I was going balls deep on it. Basically and I'm paraphrasing yeah, choda deep. This guy went 1300 bet size instead of his average 200 and, of course, it lost. So now that there's there's all this widespread criticism and there's debate on whether or not someone who works for a gambling company should be able to put out information like this, yeah, which? 

15:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
everyone that works for every which literally happens every single day and they literally all lose I mean at the hammer. 

15:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We like to think that. You know we track publicly on bet stamp positive rois on the shows. That's probably that, that's not. That's not a gambling company technically not, but their sponsorship. So let's we track publicly on Betstamp Positive ROIs on the shows. That's publicly tracked. 

15:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's not a gambling company? 

15:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Technically not, but there's sponsorships. 

15:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But what I mean is this you go for the whole like I'm a solo influencer. Yes, it's a bit different. 

16:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For sure. But, like the issue here to me, this is a reporter basically guessing who's going to be picked second overall. He obviously didn't know. He thought he knew or had some general insight into who was going to go second overall. Got it wrong In the past. He's been right many times before. But at the end of the day, the onus has to be on the better Like it has to be in this situation. 

16:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You got to be responsible. You can't just like dunk money and expect it's a sure thing. Literally, if it was a sure thing, there wouldn't be odds up for it realistically. 

16:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is just passing and assigning blame to someone else. 

16:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, Also you don't have the inside info. Buddy Shams tweeted it out Exactly To the whole world you don't have the inside info. It's not that much of a lock. If it was, you probably wouldn't have got plus money on the bet Like it's crazy, but like there are the. 

16:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What really gets me is every time something like this happens. By the way, then we got the conspiracy theories that float around right, which are like did Shams purposely tweet the wrong pick so that FanDuel could make a bunch of money? 

17:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, that's not good. That's honestly not true, obviously. 

17:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think anyone I don't want to demean by saying this, but I'm just going to say it anyways, because I say what I want to say I think anyone with a brain can figure out that that's obviously not true can figure out that that's obviously not true. The complete downside reputational downside and risk for Shams is like way like through the roof. No one would do that, first and foremost. But on top of that the action's going to come in. 

17:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's the draft. He's not like he doesn't own FanDuel, he's a paid partner of FanD. Fanduel he's just a. He's a paid partner of fanduel. It's a completely different thing. Like his main job is to be an nba beat writer and try to be the best in the world. Right, and yeah, he's obviously not gonna. It wouldn't even also benefit fanduel that much that's what I'm, that's. 

18:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's another thing too. Like on top of that, it's not a, especially with the limits on the markets too. Like, okay, go and try to bet the NBA draft at FanDuel and listen. Like I'm not here to rag on FanDuel. I actually like FanDuel's product Generally speaking. I think they're more fair than a lot of sports books on limits, generally speaking. But there, this is not like some. You know $20 million operation here. Get everybody that can bet 50 on the second overall pick to bet it. Like it's. It's borderline absurd. 

18:36
At the end of the day, when you're betting on sports, on anything, you're accountable for those bets, plain and simple. Like, to me, this is very much along the lines of the refund me for my player prop because he got injured in the first quarter. You are making a bet, you're accountable for that bet. There's lots of information that gets floated out there. This is an information betting market, but at the end of the day, the onus is on you to try to figure out what's right and what's wrong and that's it. Now, what I think will happen honestly is I actually think this will hurt the ability to bet drafts in the future, because there's so much it's already done though it is already cooked. 

19:27
It is pretty much already cooked, but it might get to the point of it's officially cooked. 

19:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well it's fine. Draft betting is already completely fried. So the NFL draft had one good year during COVID where you could bet a lot, and that's because there was not much else going on there. But after that the limits are just toast. On NFL draft, all the markets are not really up. It's not even really fun for recreational bettors anymore either, because, like, the major markets get taken down and these guys just want to like only have up the ones they literally only want the props with like the worst absolute hold to be up on draft day, not to mention all the other stuff with the uh, you know limits getting cut and whatnot. So all in what I would say, drafts already done, I'm not even like worried this this year's nba draft was already toast agreed and the nhl draft is coming up. 

20:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Or it would have had never been their sports books when's? 

20:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
the nhl draft. 

20:17
I think it would have been like it's wednesday yesterday yesterday yeah, as of this thing coming out and like nhl drafts already done too, like you can't really bet much on anything. I took a look there's there's three markets open for it. It's like who will go second overall? Because obviously bedard's first overall, yep, no doubt. Okay, done, that's already out of the market. Now they have the market for second overall, third overall and like an over under on like forget what. Which goalie or something. First goalie taken and that was it. I looked, checked a bunch of different sites, like not much up right now and obviously the limits are done. So drafts in general fun while it lasted, see ya, well, this is like. 

20:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So again, I have a lot of close friends of mine that always complain about draft limits. Right, Hitman Tsuma, like? These are friends of mine that I interact with regularly and I read the complaints and I'm like what do you expect? Like who's going to offer big markets on draft? You're just going to get cooked. Like it's different, right, like, for me, it's a complete like lack of respect and a slap in the face If you're limiting, like someone who's betting NFL sides to five bucks. Like what are we doing here that I get? But like when you're complaining about your NBA draft limits being reduced and it's like, oh, you won't take a bet. Or you're limiting your profiling accounts, it's like, of course they are. Like you know, it's an information-based market. Who are the people that are winning off of this? The people that have information. 

21:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They're likely to kill you in the long run. Yeah, I know I saw a couple offshore bookmakers um, two main guys that work for the same company tweeting about it a lot this past week and they're basically saying like okay, chill on criticizing us for this. You realize how impossible it is. Like five minutes after, one guy'll tweet something. Five minutes later it goes from whatever plus 500 to minus 500 and that's probably even short. Like you can't really book these things without severe, severe downside and extremely limited upside agreed. 

22:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, like I agree with you, it's fun. While it was lasted covid year, we got the nfl draft, tons of markets and whatever. But that was also a different year, right where access to information wasn't available either. It was not like there was teams watching practices and stuff like that. Beat writers weren't there. It was way harder at that point to actually benefit from information. Nowadays it's like you know. You see the steam on these markets. Look at the steam on these markets, like on the night of right Leading up to the pick. The information is out there. It's literally a foregone conclusion. 

22:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I have a suggestion for the draft, by the way. So you're beef to pick with every, every sports draft, every league's draft, okay, top. There's one exception to this, which I'll get into after. But how, vf, do you not know who you're going to take second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, up to at least top 10 overall? Right then, and there, yeah, you should have a list of like. Okay, if this guy's there, we take him. Just rank your guys one to ten, call it a day, that's it. If they just did that, then what they could do is do an actual draft show instead of us having to basically wait around. No one even has fun watching the draft because it's so horrible, because it's 10 minutes in between 15 minutes or some sports in between picks. 

23:30
Hey, some of us do live watch alongs for those drafts and you need a live watch long because it's impossible to watch on its own. You literally need a live watch along because you need someone to talk to in between every single thing. And the guys that are just getting interviewed like, okay, maybe it's cool to interview the first overall pick, maybe second, but after that what do you care? Interviewing the 23rd overall pick who just went to the Vikings? It's not like these guys are crazy personalities. You're just getting an interview and they're all saying the same like oh, yeah, I get it. You've got to work hard hoping to make the team honored to be here. That's it. All it is is that I disagree. 

24:10
What they've got to do. I'm in between here. Here's what they got to do. Here's what they got to do 10, at least the first 10, but they could do, honestly, the first 30. You should have to submit it in advance, yep, and then it's locked in, yep, done, and then now they could run through at least the first 10 or 15 picks. In the first 30 minutes of the programming. 

24:27
You get 15 picks and they make it a crazy thing where they can actually get the mashups, they can get the people the correct jerseys, they can actually do it as a production, not pre-recorded, but almost pre-scheduled, so that it actually flows smoothly. 

24:41
And there's pretty much absolutely no way that if you're and I know there's trades, that's the only thing. That that was. I'm saying like the exception is if there's trades, and there always is then it's like okay, well, we can't maybe pre-screen the whole thing, but you should be able to pre-screen like the first 10, just to make the production better once you get into like all right, cleveland's got sixth overall and they also have 15. Now, 15 is contingent on who they pick for six. So I understand you can't do this like overall and you do need to give them like 10 minutes at least to make the pick, but make the beginning of the draft way better, production wise to watch if it's first 10 and, like everyone, will tune in and actually enjoy that part as opposed to like all right, I'll check it tomorrow because I don't want to watch like three hours for one round. Fair enough, zach your opinion. 

25:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
A few things. I mean, you mentioned the trades. So yeah, okay, fair enough. But like that's one of them, and part of what goes into that is that the later and later it goes and the closer and closer you get to the picks, the more intensity that goes into it, just like the trade deadline. Every time you get closer and closer to the trade deadline, the valuation of everything goes up and then each gm on either side gets into a little bit of a panic either way to make some type of move. So you can't I don't think you can rush that or put that in advance. 

25:57
Um, then the other thing is concern about submitting this, the picks, early. If you submit the first 10 picks, guess what? All 10 of those picks they're gonna end up on twitter because woge knows every single pick 35 seconds before it goes out. You don't even need to watch the draft to know who's gonna get announced next by the next team and then guess what happens, like for nba, for example. More specifically, no one watches the draft and by having this, people actually watch it. So it takes away from the nba's night of having people to tune in and watch it, in my opinion no, I think this, I think this would do the opposite. 

26:32
I think no because I think, though, if you go to that, people are just going to be like I'm not going to sit here just to watch what these people have to say, like people are not going to care, like. The other thing is like people might tune into this and like, have it on in the background and not give a shit what the people who get drafted have to say, or whatever, but they're gonna look to see who that pick's gonna be. 

26:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So then, but you don't need that show anymore. That show is completely useless. You can literally just turn on a notification from the one guy who's breaking the thing and you can just see all the picks. Or, even better, just look at any app or like the nflcom and just see when the picks come in. There's no value, what? What I'm saying is this I'm not saying there's no value to follow the draft and in real time and see oh it's cool, they made a trade. There's no value to watch the TV. 

27:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That thing is just dead right now, I kind of. So I think that the drafts suck themselves the actual broadcast. 

27:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've always wondered why, if you didn't have money, you wouldn't watch it. 

27:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree, and you probably don't even watch it. I didn't. I personally was in the live watch along of the Hammers NBA draft with what Jacob Grummania ran and the hitman was a part of that, joey Kanish was a part of that and I was just kind of like seeing what they. I tuned in because I wanted to see what they bet and I kind of wanted to see their reactions when I give up my bets and kind of see their reactions or whatever. But why don't they just do the draft behind closed doors in its entirety and then turn it into like a two-hour show and you put a publication ban on it? You basically threaten the media credentials of anyone who leaks any information. You would now get a two-hour pre-produced show. You don't have to wait 10 minutes for every pick. You'd have, like the you know still the player reactions getting called and whatever. But you just put a ban on anyone who. You basically say anyone leaks the picks in this day. Your, your, your nfl press credentials are for life. 

28:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and your company or you know we won't deal with your company or whatever another thing is, is. I would even be more likely to watch a two-hour or a half-hour pre-produced start pick 1 to 15 of the draft, even if I already knew the picks, than just watch the current one right now. 

28:40 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I disagree because I would never turn it on if I knew it there. 

28:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But you already do know what they are, so what's the point? 

28:47 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, you only find out like, but you already do know what they are. 

28:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So what's the point? Well you only find out like before. 

28:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I will say like before yeah, exactly, you find out before it goes on the TV. 

28:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I'm not a person that can avoid looking at the odds, Like so during the NFL draft, which I did a live watch-along for. You know who they are. You know who every pick is because the odds reflect that in live markets like, you basically know what every single pick is going to be if you are following along in real time. 

29:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, and then you also get the guys who just break the news, like sometimes a minute or two beforehand, and it sucks, it honestly sucks. 

29:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It takes away from the broadcast like I remember watching. Like you, I don't know if you've ever seen like the original nfl drafts with the guys in the phone in the rooms. There was like it was. It was literally you go to the war room. It was a war. It was just all the gms in a room together with like telephones, literally like fucking old school, you know you can that's how old not pressing the buttons on, and it was just like quick, get up, announce the pick. And that's like way more interesting than the amount of pre-produced segment. 

29:55
Like I don't need like this is no disrespect to like Mel Kiper and whatever. Like I don't need a three minute montage or B-roll of every single player that's in the draft and them telling me why this guy's going to be an all pro or like a pro bowl player. Like we don't need that anymore. We're not. We can seek out information ourselves and, like, honestly, most people I don't think care that much anymore. 

30:21
On the sportsbook side of things, though, there has to be like a creative solution like okay, so you don't want to offer draft props, run fucking draft pools. Like run pools where people get to put together mock drafts or stuff like that and they can enter in. Like make it like DFS. You can enter in small competitions of like 10 people or big ones or whatever. Like that's some sort of scoring system that everyone knows about beforehand. Like there's got to be another way to gamble on the draft. That's not like the sports book just getting you know, having like all this massive liability, they can they take two percent off the top, whatever they want to take five percent and just run pools like how march madness? 

31:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you know fair enough. And like the people sometimes say, oh, but does? Isn't it cool to watch like these kids reactions like they got drafted. It's like okay, honestly. No, they all know they're getting drafted. If you're like projected top 10 pick to the nhl, what's the lowest? You're gonna go 30th, 35th, you're still getting drafted. Yeah, I would prefer to see that for, like someone who wasn't expected to get drafted and got taken in the fifth round of the nhl draft and it's like a dream come. They're like I'm going to work my ass off and make it, but you don't even get those ones. They only do it for. 

31:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh yeah, because that kid's also not going to show up to the draft. 

31:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, that's what I'm saying. Not only is that kid not at the draft, but they don't interview at that level. They like the draft, like okay too is all of the rest of the picks. So, like they do it off for a reason, right, because they don't. People want to watch the first round, but they don't give the same amount of coverage. And all the answers that any one of these kids gives is always generic coached up answer, pr, trained. Yeah, I'm gonna work my ass off these are hockey kids, though, that's what. 

32:03 - Zack Phillips (Other)
But all them, every sport forget about it and it's. 

32:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like I, I get it, I. But you don't even see any raw emotion anymore. You just see them getting a coached up answer like I'm happy to be on the team, I'm going to work my ass off this team, I'm blessed. They're like did you want to go to this team? Like they used to ask back in the day, like did you want to go to this team? This is your hometown team. People be like yeah, like f that team for not taking me now. They're literally like no, I'm happy to be anywhere, I just want to be given an opportunity. It's like they're literally just coached up answers now anyways, it's crazy. But I digress. 

32:32
The drafts are done I, I agree I mean my friend zach phil, can confirm my friends, regards, regards from toronto. 

32:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh yeah, I mean, I just think that there's like some sort of creative solution to do it. I mean, like we should be able to bet on this stuff but not have the sports book assume like a massive. We should be able to bet on this stuff but not have the sportsbook assume like a massive liability and also be able to bet something that's of significance. You know what I'm saying? Like it's actually ridiculous at this point. Yeah, fair enough, but anyways, speaking of ridiculous, it's the CLV debate again. What happened For the millionth time. What happened was, uh, shane trail. This avatar is familiar. I've seen him tweet something before that I almost shredded, but it's okay, that's for a different time. Um, nfl analyst action. I didn't even know this. Now it's gonna look like I'm picking on Action Network. Guys, I'm not picking on Action Network. This was a big tweet this week. Okay, look at the interaction 106.8K views at the time of recording. 

33:35
Clv is the most pointless metric used in comparison to success in the sports betting industry. Obtaining CLV indicates you are on the right side and is essentially just a pat on the back that you're at least competent at selecting the correct position. I firmly believe gaining five cents or a hundred cents of CLV doesn't sway the outcome any differently. The quote tweets, replies to this, are rad because they're all over the place. There's like you got, you got the the Twitter gatekeepers that are like you're an idiot, what are you talking about? Whatever. Then you have the people who agree. Then you have, like, the people in the middle who are like, yeah, clv matters sometimes. Sometimes it doesn't matter, and I understand that. 

34:25
This is like a a very uh, touchy subject, because subject, because it comes up so often, right, and people are so like, rooted in their beliefs on whether or not closing line value is of significance. Years ago and I've talked about this on this show many, many, many, many episodes ago but there used to be, and still is, this flow chart that circulates out on Twitter that was created by an Eastern Canadian that goes by Sprager, where it was basically like this flow chart of whether or not you should ever consider buying picks. Now, I don't necessarily agree with everything in that flow chart, as I've voiced before, but it was like this logical, somewhat logical flow. We almost need that type of flow chart for closing line value in real life, because it's not not everything is apples to apples, right, and there's like a ton of scenarios that where I think maybe closing line value is less important or maybe it's not important for some specific few people that exist. But for the millionth time I have to stress that when you bet on a game right at post a minute before it's about to start, the limits on that game, every sportsbook including Pinnacle number one 

35:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
sportsbook in Canada. Please play responsibly. 

35:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absolutely, which actually doesn't limit players either. So the limits are going to be the same for everyone. When you bet at post, they are going to be higher than when you bet earlier. This is a fact, especially on major markets. So to say that you firmly believe that gaining five cents or a hundred cents of clv doesn't sway the outcome any differently, you can't say Wait wait, wait. 

36:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Technically, though, it doesn't sway the outcome Of the game, but it sways the amount of money you win, therefore swaying the profitability of the bet. But yes, it doesn't. He's right in the literary sense Whether you bet on the game or not does not sway the outcome of the game, whether you cheer for it or not. 

36:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean unless you're at the game live in which some would debate that cheering would have a positive effect. 

36:56
We I, I know what my effect is on games specific zero on certain teams and that's zero. If not negative for the home team, why not negative for the home team? I'm a mush man. I go and I bet on the home team and they lose robbie mush, robbie mushes, no. So I guess, technically speaking, you're right. However, again, because of the limits at post, the implied probability at that time is a more true indicator of the actual probability of the game than any other point throughout the betting part market. 

37:29
Plain and simple, jeff feinberg tweeted something which caught my eye. We've had jeff feinberg on circles off before. Did one episode with us. Jeff is a friend of mine, he's a golf better. Jeff is a friend of mine, he's a golf bettor. He tweets I think I'm up for an award the worst bettor to be banned or significantly limited at most sports books. 

37:59
The system is so broken if I'm being banned I suck. These books have no clue who's sharp. They just make it up. I'm sharp because I got Tom Kim at 50 to one and he goes off at 50 to one and he goes off at 30 to one. So again, I'm not going to debate the merits of sports books, limiting you or whatever. I think it's kind of shitty, especially if you're in Ontario and you're a better and you have accounts everywhere and you're limited at 95% of the outs and pinnacle is the only spot where you can continuously bet the money that you want. I think that sucks. I think that needs changing. But this is an example, a real life example and again, I talked to Jeff very regularly of someone who's not a good sports better in their own eyes. 

38:42
He's quoting himself. So it literally says I suck, but he's betting golf outrights and consistently beating the market and maybe he's not winning all of those bets, but he's consistently beating the market and that's what's causing him to get limited. It's not the fact that he's winning, it's the fact that he's getting a better number than what the market is closing at. And this is the universe we operate in. Ask yourself why a sports book would care that somebody's not winning, but they feel like they still have to limit them. And the answer is very simple because what Jeff is talking about here, you know he thinks he sucks. He's actually doing something that in the long run is likely going to lead to him winning. 

39:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Now, golf outright market we can debate like there's a lot of hold in these markets and stuff like that like 50 to 1, going off at 30 to 1, like that doesn't necessarily guarantee that that's a good bet, depending on the hold in the market. You know where the price is elsewhere. I know it moved which it seems like a big move, but that's not that big, it's 1.2 percent, yeah like barely over one percent yeah, and the hold of the market's high. 

39:51
So so honestly, like in that scenario, it's no. It could have been a good bet. I didn't follow that exact market. I don't know what tournament this was for, but there's no guarantee, just saying agreed 100, but again. 

40:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So those who want to dismiss closing line value, I find what happens in a lot of cases there tends to be like one bet or a few bets over the course of the week that they get really frustrated with, right, like, oh, I beat the market by so much and lost again. I never win these bets or whatever, because humans are conditioned to like think about the negative generally and you feel like you're. You feel like by beating the closing line, that you deserve to win Because that's kind of like job well done, you know, you give yourself a pat on the back. I got a good number, whatever. This is that. So people lose that. And then they just get like disillusioned and they're like oh, closing line value, whatever and this and that. 

40:41
Sometimes they apply it to markets where closing line value doesn't mean a whole lot, generally speaking, where there's not a lot of competition in that market. Got to consider that as well. But overall, if a sportsbook is scared of a losing better because they're beating the odds, that's a pretty good indication to anyone else out there that that's probably a way to win long-term just by consistently getting the best number. Nothing in life is guaranteed or whatever. There will be seasons where you get good closing line value and you lose. But everyone who falls back on the actual results. You really have to understand how much variance there is. Like you can be betting an average price of plus 100, over 400 bets and go 250 and 150 and you could be still getting very lucky. 

41:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, how about this? If you win money and don't get CLV, you don't get limited. 

41:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's it. 

41:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Lose money. 

41:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Get CLV see ya, that should be all you really need to know. I mean, just think about it logically, right, like? Forget about your beliefs, your opinions on anything like that. Just think about how sportsbooks profile Period. If you're one of those people that's consistently winning, not getting good CLV, I would ask yourself are you doing something in market that is distinctly different from everyone else where you might actually have an edge? And if the answer is no, if you're just handicapping baseball games by looking at the pitchers, expected era or whatever, guess what? Everyone's kind of doing the same stuff. 

42:39
There are scenarios, in my opinion, where there can be people who win with negative clv. Usually those cases are they have access to data that's not publicly available. They're doing something or approaching the sport in a completely different manner, but they're not doing just like the same thing as everybody else. Period period anyways. I hate having that conversation. It's not apples to apples. It's not always like oh, this amount of clv guarantees you this, this, it's all like. There's all scenarios right. I would actually love if, honestly, it's a challenge, it's time consuming for people out there, but if we could, as a community, put together like a CLV flow chart, questions and answers and whatever Pizzola chart. Yeah, something like that. That would be pretty cool If anyone wants to take an initial stab at that. 

43:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That would be pretty cool. 

43:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We can debate that at least, at the very least. But to say that there's no difference between, you know, beating a line by 5 cents or 100 cents I typically think of in terms of probability instead of cents, but whatever, there's absolutely a difference between those. Yeah for sure, like it's not even close. Beating the line by 5 cents, you probably didn't even have an edge. You probably would still lose in the long run anyways. 

44:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, yeah, likely, depending on the numbers, but yes, so we said last episode that was just rob and I we said we were going to give out a positive and a negative ev play of the week, not for guest episodes. Last week it was actually two weeks ago. Last time we did it I gave out. Given a card for a gift with money inside is a negative ev play. All All right. 

44:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is polarizing. By the way, A couple of people said I can't believe. 

44:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You said a card was $7. You could buy them online 30 for 30 bucks. It can be a dollar, it can be less than a dollar. All right, here's what I'm going to say to counter this back, because I didn't have a chance to say it. The price of the card is largely irrelevant, is largely irrelevant. If it was one cent, it would still be an overpayment for the value that it provides. 

44:49
Secondary, if you actually truly feel that this kid is going to open that card and read that card, I don't know what to tell you. You're giving a kid a card, or even if you give your like, unless the person specifically really really enjoys a handwritten note in a card, or even if you give your like, unless the person specifically really really enjoys a handwritten note in a card, get that card out of there. If they do, then that part of the gift is not even like giving the card with money. You're just giving them something. That's a different part of the gift. But I stand by that. I'm willing to triple down. I get it. You can order on Amazon 30 cards for 30 bucks. Ship them to your house, store them in your house, have them there for every occasion. Prepay for the money. That'll save you money. That's a good EV. Movers buying a $7 card at the drugstore, but still negative EV. I'll triple down, so listen. 

45:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I like to write personalized messages to people. It's just who I always have been, so if I go to a friend's wedding, I'm gonna write, not a generic oh, congratulations on your wedding. I'm gonna write a personalized message in the hopes that they read them, but the card has nothing to do with that. I could fold a piece of paper and put it in an envelope. It's accomplishing the exact same thing, or send a text. 

45:59
Just don't. The cards are a joke, bro. The prices of the cards are absolute fleecing and I will not stand for it any longer. I listen, I can afford a seven dollar card, it's not a problem, it's just a matter of principle. Where does it stop? Like in my lifetime, I'm not paying ten dollars for a card. 

46:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You've probably wasted already so much money on card. It's a joke, man it's a joke. 

46:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I will fold a piece of paper and put in an envelope. I'll write a personalized message. The cash is going. They care about the cash anyways, Like let's be real. 

46:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You just read a card in front of someone, literally just to be nice. 

46:33 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So, John, did you get your dad a Father's Day card? 

46:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No. 

46:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absolutely not. I've never gotten my dad a Father's Day card. 

46:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He wouldn't even appreciate that. Another thing is he wouldn't even appreciate that. But no, I didn't, I didn't book around a golf me my dad go play, and that's I could buy him cards for the rest of life. It will never be the equivalent of that. Anyways, that was even last week, that was two weeks ago is negative ev. Move of the week. Yes, this week, I guess. Zach, did you have any prepared? Yeah, all right, we'll give we'll, we'll toss it off to you to start, okay uh, so this is more in relation to the john moran stuff. 

47:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Okay, it is negative ev to have lighters that look like fake guns, because even if you're flashing them off in an instagram video and they are just a lighter, that is a stupid move for an nba player to have that on his instagram live because now, regardless of if it was a gun or not, you are suspended for 25 games. So that's just the stupid move. Um, positive ev here uh, I have the new patios at the blue jays game because you can buy 20 entrance fee tickets or you can find cheaper ones, maybe last minute or something. Maybe you're it's friday, saturday night with your buddies. You can find some like last minute, 10 bucks. Whatever you get in, you rip up to those patios that they have there. You're basically paying cover fee to go to a bar and there's a baseball game going on in the background yeah it's, I agree environment. 

47:59
I think it's uh. 

48:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think that's positive ev boys for those of you who are like oh, what do you mean, zach, saying you gotta wait 10, 20 bucks? That's like just the cost of tickets at some parks In Toronto. We get absolutely reamed on tickets. 

48:12 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Maple Leafs and Raptors get absolutely reamed, Jays. 

48:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you can kind of pick up at a reasonable price. Anyways, Pizzola. 

48:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not what they did to the Rogers Center. For those that don't know outside of Toronto, but they basically stripped out a bunch of seats in the outfield, renovated it like zach said. They put a lot of different bars and stuff. It's all like. Anyone can go there with a ticket to the game so you can get a general admission ticket for 20 bucks. You can drink five beers before you go. You're already hammered anyways. 

48:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Throw a couple more at the game you know the 17 beers and you have yourself a night yeah, the negative ev, though, is by the time you get the jays, games just go so quick and they stop serving the beer pretty early. They stop at what? The seventh? Inning stretch Seventh inning stretch. 

48:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's actually quite tough not going to lie, so you got to do your drinking beforehand and then like rub set and then you're good. All right, that's it. 

48:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pizzola, what do you got? Okay, minus EV. I'm not going to throw out the specific person in this office that did this. It's not a matter of just like throwing out names or whatever. If you work in an office environment and you go into the kitchen and you microwave leftover fish, get the fuck out of the office. Like you do not. I don't even know what I like fish. I eat fish. I eat mostly like a Mediterranean diet lots of chicken, fish, beans, stuff like that, salads. But you, it's like office rule 101. You cannot get rid of that smell there. It's stuck for the entirety of the day, if not week. Like. It's not like a home. You open up all the windows or whatever. When you're in like commercial buildings it's not that easy. Just don't microwave fish in the office. You got leftover fish, just like. Leave it at home, eat it for dinner the next day or whatever. Absolute no, no, don't be that person. I will assure you. If you are that person, everyone talks about you behind your back. I'm just telling you right now don't be that person. All right and positive, positive, ev. 

50:09
This one's actually a sports betting one. It's relatable. I've talked about number one overall pick in the NBA draft as it stands right now. Fire last minute bombs on the huge favorites when the outcome is known. Okay, in these markets they don't lose. When the line steams to like minus 10,000. I know it's a sweat People are like, oh, why would you do that? You know to win nothing. You're going to win 10 bucks or what it's a free $10. They don't lose. The line is the way it is because the outcome is known. Literally, people have been betting so much on this market because they know the outcome. 

50:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Just fire the huge favorites in those markets buddy, when badard doesn't go first overall, we're gonna clip this. No, we're joking. He's obviously going first overall. Hammer badard, good to any number. One way for a sports book. 

51:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
To just ruin me right now would be to do, would just be a fake line move. 

51:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, but only for like. The one overall is like okay, wemby was going to go one. Like you could have bet that at minus 50,000. You're going to win that Like there's no way he wasn't going one. It's already known like there. 

51:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No bookmaker is doing this. But let's say I was live trading the, the nfl draft, for example. Right, and we get the seventh overall pick. I would absolutely jam a random person to like minus 50 000, like just jam, just to see if someone gets, just to see if, just to see if someone goes, and you obviously that means like the other odds on, like there's going to be a player that's going to go seventh overall, it's going to cash yeah I like plus 500, but I would just want like one person to. 

51:52
I mean, this is my name. This is tells you a lot about who I am as a person. 

51:55 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, but if I was trading? 

51:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, I, I would be like that guy in the office, like look at this loser, just like just jam this for whatever. Whatever, the limit is 500 bucks, but anyways, so far, so far. Right now, as it stands, these win at an incredibly high rate. I would come as far as saying that they win at a nearly 100% rate, again because the outcome has known and has leaked into market. So last second bombs on huge favorites. 

52:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, my positive and negative. They're related for this week. For anyone out here who's playing any casino games, all right. Positive EV of the week Line shop at the casino, online or in person. All right, severely severely. You can look at what the hold percentages are at online casinos. So at least in Ontario, where we are, there needs to be like a legal disclaimer of what the what's called RTP is. 

52:57
Return to player Return to player. So that means you can see if a slot slot machine is completely rinsing you. If the return to player is 80, then that means, in theory, every dollar you put in, you're getting back 80 cents, so you're losing 20 cents on that dollar. There is some slots, though, that you know bookmakers and online casinos will have on promo where the return to player is 99.9. If the return to player is 99.9, fire away and have some fun, and that's a good way to play online casino. If that's like a vice errors. If that's some way you de-stress or you want to have fun on a night, right, obviously, play responsibly. But just saying here I don't necessarily think you're going to find a crazy edge like you do in sports betting. Likely not going to happen. 

53:40
But if you shop around on the online casinos, check out the RTPs, especially for games like slots, you actually will be able to find stuff that's not completely rinsing you and might not cost you a whole lot. It might cost you, like, over the course of the whole night. You might be spending all night, your EV might be negative $10, which is a fun night, and one night you might win $1,000. One night you might lose $1,000, but you're not getting destroyed. And then negative ev move of the week is casinos putting it's positive ev for the casino, negative for us. On the roulette, the third green space and on some casinos now the fourth green space. On the roulette, these greedy mother effers are putting. How dumb are people to roll. It was supposed to be literally okay, red and black. You get red or black and then they put in one green which is the house edge. 

54:35
The house edge is, it might land on the green. So you don't truly have it. These greedy mother effers. Two greens now is the norm. You barely find a table that's not two greens, three green, and now, when I saw the fourth green, almost lost it. It's only a matter of time before we have like a seven green, and then they're just spreading out all the greens in between the thing. Absolute travesty, we're out. But I guess the positive EV would be don't play at a roulette table unless it's one green. And if you're online, same deal. Find a table that's usually called European roulette instead of American. That's only one green, saving so much money. Let's go. 

55:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's what I was going to say. I don't know the origin of that, but I know that European roulette is one green zero. I think American roulette wheels will either have a green zero than they adopted the double zero. 

55:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, one zero, double zero. Now they're just making stuff up. They're not even triple zero. They just put logos of the casino in there and they're scattered all over the place and you're like what the fuck is going on? I literally can't. You can't even play at those tables. Like don't play there. I literally can't. You can't even play at those tables, like don't, don't play there. 

55:47
I mean, that's like you can't let this be the norm, like they're. They're. They're just reducing. Casinos make enough and they're reducing everything. Now you go play blackjack. Blackjack pays like, and then they just reduce it. It used to be like hey, blackjack pays two to one, Now it's like blackjack pays six to five. Come on. 

56:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, listen, come on. Well listen, it was some fair odds. I have been known to go and dabble in the uh charity, the cne, canadian national exhibition charity casino, back in the day, because there's no casino in toronto. Believe me, the first time I sat down and played blackjack at that casino, you're in for a rude awakening in terms of the rules what seven when you think you've pushed a hand and they just collect your money. 

56:26
And you're like what the fuck is going on? And it's just like a sign that says, like dealers went on the push. You're like what world am I in right now? And then, like you're trying to, they don't even let you chase at these casinos. Like if you're playing a $50 table and like you're trying to chase to win your money back and you throw down like a $300 bet. I don't recommend this, by the way, don, I don't recommend this, by the way, don't do this. And they're like uh-uh, they like point to the sign. It's like min 50, max 100. You can't even like try to attempt to win your money back. 

56:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's uh, yeah, that's crazy. 

56:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's absurd. You'll catch me there this summer. 

57:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, the stags are. What about the stag games for like promo games? 

57:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
there you're, like they're like, you're like, oh, nice, bust. And then they're like nah, dealer wins on 22. So you want, you want to know. Like nobody's gonna have any idea what we're talking about, because stags don't exist anywhere outside of vaughn ontario. Yeah, I know they don't exist in italy they don't exist, they're just so. What a stag is essentially is a fundraiser I'll announce it here. 

57:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm never going to a stag again. I love, I love I fundraiser. See, I'll announce it here. I'm never going to a stag again. I love stags. I'm out on stags. I'll announce it right now. I'm out on stags. 

57:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to clean up at the poker at stags. It's a horrible place, despite the rake. The rake is absurd. I'll still win at the stag. Games in poker. A stag are for the group. It's typically done at a banquet hall. They sell tickets beforehand for usually like 120 bucks or something like that, which will get you open bar and uh and a meal a shitty meal, not always, but usually just like hall food or whatever. It's not not the best, usually buffet style. Yeah, once you get there then there's like blackjack, casino games. There's raffles for prizes which, by the way, like it's a fundraiser, so you're not going to be the guy that's like no, I'm not buying tickets for the raffle. And they have like hostesses there, girls, women who walk around trying to encourage you to buy raffle. This is not like some sort of strip club or anything like that, but good looking women who are trying to get you to buy raffle tickets. When all is said and done, you go to a stag. 

58:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're dropping like 300 bucks, probably roughly yeah, I mean, if you're gonna buy, there's these scam games like joker poker scam games like this. 

58:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's. It's the scam of all scams. Did you have a stag when you got married? I did yeah, I did sc, I did, I did, I made did you make money off it? I made, uh, I don't know, like 8,500 bucks, see, that's, that's another thing, that's crazy. 

58:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, you literally call in every favor in the book. You call up every guy you know to go to your stag to make 8,500. 

59:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay. 

59:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So here's, here's the thing. Everyone spends a cumulative like 56,000 for you to make 8,000. 

59:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sure, but on top of that, like in my life, I've contributed more in buying stag tickets than I made off my own. 

59:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I fully imagine that. No, no, no, because there's so much. There's so much that goes to like the other people. So if you go to yeah, I agree. 

59:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And on top of that you're like oh well, rob said he always wins in poker there. Well, there's a rake and the rake goes to the groom right, and I keep those tables going. Believe me, like I, you know, sometimes I'll play two tables. It's very frowned upon, but I'll pick the corner seat so I can play both tables. Nobody wants it to happen, but it happens anyways. So but this is like a thing that only exists in our community. Like I tell other people about this, like what the hell are you talking? Like, yeah, what is that? I took an out-of-towner to a stag once, one of a betting partner of mine that came into town. They're like what the hell is this? I, this is like I've never seen this before in my life. It's 150 guys in a room just gambling and buying raffle tickets for like a playstation and a big screen tv and a toonie toss. Oh, my god, god, the toonie toss. 

01:00:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
These American people are literally laughing at us Like you wouldn't believe. Right now, at a banquet hall. 

01:00:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You got your dance floor right. So there's a thing called a toonie toss. So, uh, for those Americans that don't know, in Canada we have a $2 coin. It's called the toonie. So typically what you do is there is a prize for the toonie toss and they usually put it at one end of the dance floor and from the other end you kind of throw these toonies along the ground and some people get really low to the ground, Some people have like their special tosses and basically whoever ends up closest to that prize by the end of the night without touching it wins the prize. And it can range from like a bicycle. I was at a stag once it was a Vespa. The last stag I was at was just a wheelbarrow of booze. 

01:00:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like a thousand bucks of booze in there or whatever. It's usually a decent prize, like a couple hundred bucks to a thousand. 

01:00:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, and it's like if you've never seen that in your life before and you walked into like a and just saw a bunch of guys throwing coins on the floor like a giant bottle of whiskey or something like that. You're like what the fuck is going on here? 

01:01:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
and the idea is like you, you buy the toonies for the value of, so you pay like whatever. You'll give the guy 20 bucks, they'll give you 10, two dollar coins and you throw those it's like two bucks a toss and then all the coins they just like, pick them up, resell them and then that money goes to the groom for the fundraiser the best thing thing. 

01:01:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're talking a lot about this, but people really need to experience this, like I should. I should like sneak a camera into one of these one day. The best thing about the Toonie Toss is they can never end this fucking thing. Like they tell people like Toonie Toss is done at 11 o'clock, but then there's like a line they'll announce, like anyone who still has. 

01:01:42
Toonie there Like six Italian guys fighting for last these things end at like one o'clock because everybody wants to be the last person to throw People. Like they literally bring stacks of Toonies with them to the event just so that they can still, and then you know they'll go up and be like no, where did those Toonies come from? Like I bought them off you or whatever. Like it's crazy, they go forever. They cannot end this damn thing and then cannot end this damn thing and then there's also, uh, the, the, a very common one, as well as the prosciutto hold, oh, that's that where I am disgustingly bad at that. 

01:02:12
Well, I mean, put, put a bunch of men in a room together and see who can hold a prosciutto out like this the longest to win the prosciutto, and it becomes very competitive. Yeah, yeah, and there's always like some guy who's like trained on this for like months. He's showing up, he's sweating you. You know that he's not going to give. You know like you have to hold your arm out full parallel for anyone who's listening. 

01:02:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you hold your arm out straight to the side of your body and you hold a string and that string is attached to a full prosciutto which it weighs about 30 pounds, maybe of 30 pounds, maybe 20 pounds, I'm gonna look up. It's not too heavy, but boy, is it tough on the shoulder. Oh yeah, you, you, you guys like what's, what's, what's, uh, well, I mean, obviously it depends on the size roughly six kilograms. 

01:03:02
So, like it depends, there could be different ones obviously, but yeah, so this one's about 14 pounds, so call it 20 pounds is like maybe an average. You'll see you'll. You have to basically hold. 

01:03:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Consider it a 20 pound weight on a string perpendicular he's got to be smaller to your body, because the ones I've seen at some of them are yeah, they're honestly more than 20 pounds. 

01:03:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah and uh and yeah, like the right. So like someone will go up and then usually it's like oh, this guy did it for like a minute 10 and then another guy will get like a minute 40 and then they'll just be trying to break the minute 40, usually, like I think the most I've ever seen is like three minutes. 

01:03:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was wild, I've seen guys just like the, the amount of sweat, like it's, it's actually disgusting also this is like while wearing a dress, shirt of course you're wearing nice shirt, like you don't show up at a stag dressed like a bum, like you could wear jeans or whatever. 

01:03:44
But you're wearing nice shirt, like you don't show up at a stag dress like a bum, like you can wear jeans or whatever, but you're usually wearing a colored shirt of of some capacity, decent clothes and just like these you can see, like these guys shaking. They're like like whole body, like you're going to call it, like people are, are for a frigging pursuit, like there's, like some, always, always disputes. 

01:04:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If his shoulder too low and it wasn't, it was no longer perpendicular and they're like, no, that's out, it's out. And then he's like he'll raise it back up. Call violations anyways. We've gone on too long. This has been episode 108 of the legendary circles off podcast, right here on the hammer betting network, presented by pinnacle. We will see you all next week, peace. Thanks for watching, guys.