00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. It's a Q&A episode. We asked you for questions. We'll have the answers. We'll break them down. Some are sports betting related, some are more personal. On top of that, we give our plus EV and minus EV moves of the week. All that and more. This week's Circles Off starts now. Come on, let's go. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 111, right here on the Hammer Betting Network presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. I'm Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from Betstamp. How's it? 

00:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
going Rob nice golf shirt. Thank you. 

00:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Were you wearing that in Myrtle Beach? I was not. Maybe it would have helped. The Myrtle Beach clothes are good. They're going to be burned Like. 

00:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I just brought my suitcase back, my carry-on and I'm going to just burn it, so you, want to tell everyone what happened. 

00:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, very depressing week for me. Um, last week I played in uh. I played in a head-to-head matchup against rufus peabody, uh mini golf in myrtle beach. It was originally supposed to be joey knish. He had to pull out for some personal reasons don't really want to get into it, but it was serious personal reasons. He couldn't make it. So on very short notice I was scrambling to find a playing partner. I knew Rufus would play immediately. When I called him, I did. He made it out to Myrtle Beach, we got to play one-on-one and then we got to commentate a pro World Putting League event afterwards, which was a blast as well. 

01:29
But in but in the head-to-head I lost and uh, unfortunately, when you put yourself on the line in competition, like public competition, you just can't live that stuff down. Like you lose, it's just it's around forever, right. And uh, I not only lost, but I had a blow-up hole which you don't want to have because it's just like an embarrassing. Like you look like a complete idiot, can't make a putt very challenging hole. But ultimately I'm here now and I uh, I have to live with it would you say you're owing to yeah yeah, like the first event. 

01:57
So this is the second time I've done this. The first event was a threesome against jeff feinberg and andy molliter. Technically it was a larger thing, like we competed in a world putting league event and we finished like very low. But us three were paired together. I wanted to beat them that I like I felt like I should have won that Right. So I was very, very disappointed afterwards. Like Andy didn't even get to practice the course, practice like one or two times Jeff. I consistently beat him in the practices so I figured that I would beat him in the final round and I didn't. He played really well that day. 

02:32
This one against Rufus was a lot more challenge, like he's better than me, he's a better putter, but like I felt so much pressure. Weird, this is so weird. By the way, there was no, no regulated sportsbooks that could list me versus rufus because it's we're amateurs, right, we can't, they, they can't integrity of the game totally get it. So it was like offshore sportsbooks betting exchanges that were listing rob versus rufus and I got up to like a minus 200 favorite. And I'm thinking in my head like it there's no way wrong team favorite 100, wrong team like rufus is like an eight handicap golfer. I'm like an 18. He actually practices putting regularly, like legitimately, goes to the course for a couple hours and will practice putting and uh, it created like an extra element of pressure where I felt like I needed to win. And uh, it didn't work out, but it was fun and I'll play in like a million till I win. That's kind of the end goal for me. Just play till I win. 

03:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're just gonna keep going down, get up. Well, actually you got a harder opponent than last time. 

03:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I got a harder opponent than last time. I need I want to play knish head to head. I will smoke like I quote cut, cut the clip, save it or whatever. I will bury that guy in mini golf. I know I know everyone thinks like they're a pro at mini golf, but does he claim he's good? He at least was practicing for the event. He was sending me videos of him like walking to like the local mini golf places in detroit or whatever, so he was trying, but I will take him down when we play eventually. I love this stuff. This is like some of my favorite form of content creation because you just get to be yourself. Like I'm playing mini golf. People want to sponsor it, cover it like grow up mini golf league. It's amazing. It's really fun. It just sucks to lose because there's like a lot of eyeballs from my peers really fun. 

04:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It just sucks to lose because there's like a lot of eyeballs from the my peers 111 who you got number 11 uh, julio is my number 11. 

04:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Always think of julio, jones, yeah I like larry fitz. 

04:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, that guy was just so reliable for years and years and years. And they also. You know what I believe the stat is more tackles defensively than drop passes over his career. 

04:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Really that makes a lot of sense. I can actually picture Larry Fitzgerald making tackles in my head right now after interceptions, Like just he was like a pure hustle guy would always make the play. Fact. Check that, Zach. 

05:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't want to, you don't have to fact check Larry Fitz more tackles than drops over his career. 

05:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're used to giving out bad facts here on Circles Off. I mean, that's very possibly true. 

05:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's see if that checks out Any other sports Like 11,. We got Kyrie. Kyrie wears 11. Anze Kopitar on the Kings. Kopitar wears 11. Mark Messier back in the day. 

05:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Owen Nolan I 11 mark messier, back in. The owen nolan, I haven't heard that name in forever. 

05:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Owen, nolan, owen, nolan when I was first when I was young. Yeah, it's confirmed 41 tackles, 29 drops put it on the board. 

05:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yes, uh, owen nolan, when I was young um, I, when I was young and probably when you were too, maybe zach as well I used to love like all-Star games when you're a kid, Like home run derby, NHL, All-Star game, skills, competition, Like that was my jam. And yeah, he pointed like on a breakaway I think Dominic Kasich was the goalie. He just like pointed, wristed it into the corner. It was amazing. It was like such an epic thing to do. You look like a real asshole. If that doesn't go in. You look like a real asshole. Nah, not even it's an all-star game. It is true, it's an all-star game. Now it's like they're really trying to step everything up every single year. Home run derby like we didn't get to talk about this. The home run derby now I bet on it. It still didn't make it fun. It sucks. The time limit has to go. There's too much happening on the screen. It's impossible for me to watch the picture, like I have no, no idea how many home runs there's actually no, you're right, and they also don't. 

06:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The commentary is like god, there's another one. 

06:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But they don't actually keep the count, bro, there's no count the count doesn't happen in real time, first and foremost because I don't know what's going on. But it's you can't. There's too much going on on the screen. I can't, my brain cannot process watching the batter and the outfield that this, like there needs to be time to see that ball land. That's what it comes down to. 

06:53
Back in the day it was outs, you had a certain number of swings and outs. I know that they just want guys to mash and they think that this is good. But like the, the quality of the of, like the actual video is, it's tough man, it's painful. And also these kids in the outfield see the kid that got smoked by a Vladdy line drive right in the head. They have no time to. There's a million balls coming down them all. One ball's in the air. Everyone's got their glove in the air trying to catch this thing and then there's a liner coming right at them Like nothing. There's been no talk. 

07:26
I researched the next day trying to figure out what happened to that kid. I have no idea. It's nowhere. That kid just got absolutely drilled with a liner directly in the head and laid down on the ground while more homers were being mashed, like no one even thought to stop this thing. Imagine that, like they couldn't have just had like a timeout on the field, like someone stepped in to stop to check on this kid, vladdy's just still ripping homers Like come on, man, that was I don't, I shouldn't laugh. I shouldn't laugh. It's not funny. Kid got smoked in the head. But like in the grand scheme of things, if that kid is okay it's funny that they just continued on as if like nothing happened. 

08:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, honestly, the all-star games are all downhill, every sport. 

08:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The best tweet that I saw about the home run derby was that they should take the kids out and let drunk college kids try to catch the balls. But even then it would be. It would not be fun for our viewing experience because we can't like there's too much happening in real time. Slow it down, man. These guys are just ripping pitches in. The batters can't even breathe. They're literally calling timeouts because they can't breathe. Like listen, vladi is a little bit out of shape, I get like a bigger boy, but they they're. They're dying out there like they're dying at the plate, calling timeouts because they're out of breath. Like that's when we have a problem. Maybe reduce the number of pitches. Just a thought more gap between pitches might help these guys could also make it like a jackpot style for the catch. 

08:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, get people from the crowd beforehand, give them a glove 100 bucks ball. Whoever comes up with it, that would be more entertaining than the derby. 

09:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, like if it was one pitch at a time, you could assign a monetary value to each Money balls 200. No, just like. Even it doesn't have to be anything crazy. 

09:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You ever play pop 500 when you're a kid. Yeah, but I'm saying like just a hundred bucks a ball, yeah. So everyone's like trying to get that ball to win the hundo, yeah. 

09:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
and then it could even be like whoever comes up with it doesn't even have to be a, a dead catch I like that there should be one ball in the pitcher's basket that's just like covered with a one thousand dollar bill or something like that, and you never know which one it is it's inside the ball you have to open up every ball. 

09:47
No, they got to do something. I want to watch these. I want to enjoy them, right, like there's obviously betting associated with it. I want to enjoy them and I don't want to say like I didn't enjoy. I watched the whole thing but it was a little bit of a painful watch and that's what we've gotten to with. Like, the all-star games always sucked, but the skills competition type of stuff has to be better. Man, remember the quarterback competition when we were young. The quarterback competition where there's like the, the bullseye is going by on, like in the qb's got like the chalked ball hitting it. You could see you exactly like that stuff was fun. Which qb's can throw the ball the furthest? That bring that back into my life at like a good scale hockey, baseball, basketball, dunk competition. 

10:38 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I mean, you can only dunk the ball so many ways the only one that's good in hockey is the uh, the target shooting. That's the only one I like, because it you gotta ding off the targets as quick as you can and there's like it's like 10 seconds max like. 

10:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's why I remember they tried to introduce like. I don't even know if they still do this. When they try to introduce like these passing drills where there's like these little tiny nets on the ground, they like flick it over like I think I think they do, bro? Those stink, absolutely stink. Once you have to introduce passing drills into the hockey skills. No, no. 

11:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I actually I like the ones that are more quick and they don't require someone facing off against another person other than like a time limit or an amount or like a hardest shot, for example. Yeah, it's like, okay, you all go, bang, hardest shot. You don't have to like face another guy and then it's like, well, they're both going same time. Whoever gets a shot off first points whatever. So I like that. And then I like the accuracy. Yeah, for the nhl actually went to the all-star game this year. Scales comp 2 wasn't that good. No, also straight up, that one was ridiculous. They would do one event and then take like a 15-minute break and then one event, 15-minute break. And I don't mean one event as in like the whole event. I mean they do like oh, we're doing the semifinals. For the accuracy Bam, okay, now we're doing the finals, now we're doing this. It took forever Even for watching at home. You can't even really watch that. It's not a full night, you have to watch something else you have to flip between. Yeah, I it's. 

12:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I couldn't. I can't make it through that stuff anymore, but might as well just watch the highlights on social media afterwards. You're gonna see all the good stuff. Anyways, why waste my whole night like the guys who are watching, like, uh, the nba? Uh, you know, when the point guards are like dribbling and they're bouncing the ball into the, yeah, see, that's what I'm saying. 

12:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You face someone else, are fucking jogging out there. 

12:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They don't even give a shit. Like why should I give a shit if these guys don't give? 

12:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it Like horrible. The only good event, honestly, for all the sports all-star games, I mean the NFL one. I didn't really watch as much last year, but three-point contest, hardest shot. Call it a day For NHL. 

12:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Hardest shot, NBA three-point contest All the rest ofater one just because they're giving it. 

12:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They're actually trying to, but honestly, though the thing with the fastest skater is, I guess it's the same as hardest shot. I would also like to see a league-wide contest, not necessarily all-stars, because when you do that, think about it, there's probably guys who are faster skaters who are just not in the NHL. Sorry, not an all-star, you don't have to be an all-star to be the fastest skater in the league. 

13:11
Yeah, I'd like to basically be like every team nominates like one or two guys, or you nominate one guy per team and then they rip it, but you actually nominate your fastest skater, you actually nominate your hardest shot, and then we see what the contest is there's, there's, we can go. 

13:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can do like a six hour episode on sports. 

13:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's what I'm gonna say, because, like, the guys are not leaving a player from every team is a fucking joke too. 

13:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like I get it. Like you want everyone's fans to be interested, but don't put some like stinker in here because he plays for the worst team in the league. Like and and deprive a great player an all-star spot. 

13:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like also straight up, let's do a hundred meter nhl fastest skater. Hundred meter, like they do in track and field, yeah, full straight away. And then, like you got to extend the the rinks that they don't crash, and like obviously it'd be way bigger. But I'd love to see that like a hundred meter skating race as opposed to like the whole turn, and then we actually could see who's got the highest burst and sustainability the. 

14:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm very interested in you bringing this up because for a long time I've wanted to see like the all-stars of one sport play different sports as part of the all-star game. Like why not nhl all-star game? Why not have the guys do like a pickup? Basketball, they did the golf one this year yeah, they had, like the one, the nathan McKinnon. 

14:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They played golf with the hockey stick, yeah, but I think it was with the puck. 

14:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Trying too hard. Put these guys on a track and field thing, man. Have them run 100 meters against each other. 

14:34 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Remember when. 

14:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wayne Gretzky dusted some. 

14:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Who did he? 

14:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
dust. Yeah, yeah, they were past their prime, like Sugar Ray Leonard. Who else was in that race? Some soccer player? Who was the soccer player? Pele. 

14:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pele and Bjorn Borg. Wayne Gretzky literally looked like Usain Bolt in this race. He dusted these guys. 

15:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm pretty sure Gretzky was in his prime though. It's not even fair when you consider the age discrepancy, but yeah, honestly, guys who are great athletes are going to be good in the long spots. That was not even a 100 meter right. 

15:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was like a 60 meter and he won by like 10 meters. He absolutely dusted them, left everyone behind. We got a Q&A plan for this week. We asked for your questions. You submitted them on twitter, on youtube dms to circles off, dms to myself as well. We're going to get to them, but before we do, just a reminder. 

15:29
Pinnacle is the proud sponsor of circles off. They are the world's sharpest sports book and available to bettors in ontario. Find out what pro bettors have known for decades pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus not available to those in the US and, of course, please play responsibly. It's part of this Circles Off channel. We're expanding our content. I'm making some content for more recreational bettors as well, some topics that maybe, for the more advanced out there, not suitable for you, but if you do have friends that are new in the betting space, hook them up. Send them over to Circles Off to watch our shorter form betting content. I wish I had stuff like this when I was younger, instead of having to learn lessons the hard way. New video dropping next week in terms of educational content. 

16:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Q&A. All right, so we're going to do the same as always. I'm going to read them out here and then Rob and I will both try to answer where we can and provide the most value, as always. Please, everybody, absolutely obliterate that like button before we read any questions. Obliterate, you're right there on the YouTube. Hammer that like button. Want to make sure that you don't rip those clicks? Rip those clicks. Want to make sure that you don't rip those clicks? Rip those clicks. All right, first off, this one I'm going to give to you, rob, here. How do you handle it when you're off market by a lot? Do you bet your large perceived edge aggressively or do you tend to doubt your number in that moment and trust the market as a whole? 

16:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A very good question. So whenever you're off market by a lot, as an originatorator, the first thing that I like to do is try to understand why. So it might be a certain projection that's causing it, and then I ask myself whether or not I agree with it. At the end of the day, if you have a model, you've back tested that model, you think that this is worth betting, then I bet the edge aggressively. I personally do that. If I show a large edge and I understand why it's happening and it's not just a bug, because sometimes that happens Like you'll have bug you import player data, it screws everything up. You have like some sort of error. If I don't have an issue with that, then I will just bet the edge aggressively. 

17:43
Now where it gets real tricky is if you start to get market resistance on that. So you're betting this thing hard and the market is working against you. That's when you maybe wanna take a pause and say, okay, maybe I'm missing something here, but overall, what's the point of creating models to bet if you're not gonna bet? Your biggest edge is hard, right, like why even do it in the first place? So I think you have to trust what you're doing and the only concern I have is market resistance. Then maybe you go back to the drawing board afterwards and say you know what am I missing here? I'll look into something, but no, I mean, you create models to be off market is the reality. You don't create models to be on market for everything, and then you could just take the market. Well, that's what I'm saying. If you're doing that, there's no point in even having the model anymore. All right Up next here? 

18:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What does a professional bankroll look like? I mean, do you store it in cash? What seems like a suboptimal way to use a big chunk of cash that you only infant infrequently use on a big drawdown? Sorry, I sometimes like stutter on these questions because like they're written, well, because you highlighted this one in orange no, but it's because I I don't know what it is like sometimes when I'm reading these. If the thing isn't in the grammar that I prefer, I switch it up, you myself subconsciously. 

19:03
Not that this is in well, it says what's a professional? Yeah, like I just swap them up. 

19:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I sometimes sorry we're going completely off track here, but Zach obviously sees me like reading off a prompter sometimes and I just like formulate sentences in my head that aren't there, like I don't know why. I do this because I write the script myself, but I still like completely mangle it a million times. 

19:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, I'll take this question, though. So what I would say here very plain and simple you want your bankroll working for you, right? So there's really no reason to say, have a large bankroll if you're not going to put it to use. Putting it to use could be having it posted up in multiple betting accounts. That way you can get the best price, get more money down, things like that. But also, if you're betting where you need to maybe settle up in cash or send a transfer, you also want to have some sort of buffer there as well, or at least have access to money. 

19:56
Nobody likes someone who's like in a slow pay, definitely want to not get in trouble and bankroll managed correctly, not just with your total stake but also, like you know, per account. So you make sure you have, you know, enough on hand to potentially settle. So, that being said, like there's pretty much, you're not going to store your entire bankroll in cash, obviously, unless you're only betting in places where you have to, like, send cash every single week, in which case you're betting on credit, yada, yada, yada. But for the most part, I would say, if you look at a better, a lot of their bankroll would be especially at this level, you know, just tied up in sites or in reserves. 

20:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I think if you ask different professional bettors, their bankroll is very much going to look different depending on where they're actually placing their bet. 

20:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you ask a true bettor, a lot of their bankroll is going to be tied up in AR. 

20:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A lot of their bankroll is going to be tied up in AR. Yes, up in ar. A lot of their bankroll is going to be tied up in ar. Yes, I mean like if I was living in vegas and I was betting mostly over the counter as an example, obviously your larger portion would be cash on hand. If I'm in ontario, like I am now, and you have access to 40 different sports books, including pinnacle, and you know you, you want to get money into accounts. You want to do that easily through your bank, so, so you plan accordingly, but I don't think that there's one right answer here. It just depends on where you know. You just try to be as liquid as possible in wherever you're betting. 

21:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Up next our good friend Ben Carey. Congratulations to Ben Carey on the birth of his first child. 

21:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Congratulations Ben. Congratulations Ben. So should the birth of his first child. Congratulations Ben. Congratulations Ben. 

21:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So should we be measuring CLV differently in the earlier part of a season versus later in the season as the market matures and becomes more efficient? 

21:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you want to give me your thoughts? 

21:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sure, so it's definitely you want to be measuring CLV the same way every time. So first off, like in terms of clarifying the question, you want to be measuring it the same way. Basically, what I think you know Ben's asking here is do you weight it differently earlier? So should you be as focused on CLV earlier in the year versus later in the year? My answer to that is the market is always going to be as efficient as it is in any given moment. So even though it's more efficient at the end of the year, the difference between your price and the closing price is still going to be the best indicator of efficiency that you have. So in terms of weighting it, you could say that getting CLV at the same level later in the year or at the end of the season is better. But also, in my opinion, what I would say is it's going to be so marginally different that I would consider it the same way the entirety of the year, in fact, sometimes near the end of the season, which is actually a misconception. 

22:44
Here CLV actually means less Oftentimes near the end of the year, which is actually a misconception. Here the CLV actually means less. Oftentimes near the end of the year, sportsbooks actually reduce limits. So middle of season is really where your peak. So for MLB, like right now, would probably be most efficient. Once you hit deadline, players change teams. Now you have a new level of sub-efficiency and then, near the end of the year, you really don't know what teams are tanking, what teams are going for it, especially in a sport like, for example, hockey, where you know Rob would know all about it. Like you, you really, near the end of the year, are like in more difficulty than the middle of the year in terms of, like putting together the roster constructions, who's going to be playing, who's going to be playing, who's going to be out, who's shut down for the year, what teams have the motivation factors and things like that. 

23:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For me, I would say I don't measure CLV differently, like I measure CLV the same all periods of time, regardless. 

23:35
However, I will say that there are different viewpoints or feelings that I have at certain points in the year, like if the market moves against me in, like week two of the NFL, I'm concerned. I always, I always like to beat the market, but I don't think it's the end of the world. Cause I think that there's so many differing opinions at the start of the year? Cause you're very reliant on, like previous year's data. There's going to be more of a divergence of people's numbers, like through the first four weeks of the NFL season. Then there's going to be more of a divergence of people's numbers, like through the first four weeks of the NFL season, than there is going to be like in week eight, nine or ten, and I'm not as concerned. 

24:13
Ultimately, I do want to beat the closing line as much as humanly possible, but for the sports I bet early on in the year. I think it's just honestly. There's more differing opinions, is what it comes down to, and I'm less concerned about not beating the closing line earlier in the year than I am later in the year where we have, like all these data points available to us, if you understand what I'm saying. 

24:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so you are valuing it a little bit differently. 

24:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I am, but like. So I'm valuing it differently, but I'm not measuring it differently. 

24:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, of course, and I think that's what Ben's asking here. So, ben, I guess Rob and I are giving kind of different answers. I'm saying like straight up, the impact that it will have is so marginal that it's not even worth it to like take any, you know, take it with a grain of salt, it's not really a big difference. I understand the way, the ways in which it would be considered more or less valuable, but I don't think there's like a major um enough enough of a difference to make it worth it all. Right, um, up next. I'm actually gonna skip that question, rob. 

25:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's, there's no way we're in a good groove here this is going to very much get into a political answer that I don't want to give, so we let's keep moving. 

25:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
These two are related, so I'm gonna read both of them and then I'm gonna let you answer these, rob, because they're more up your alley here. So do you think nfl teams are handling travel better? If so, how does it factor, I guess, into your modeling process? And then the second one, very similar, is the rest advantage I see going around for nfl actually useful in handicapping? 

25:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
okay. So definitely teams are handling travel better in the NFL. You've seen over the course of the last two or three seasons, even a little bit further back, stuff that we would have never seen 10 years ago, like a team taking a road trip out West and then staying out West for another game, and there's examples like that. Look at the London games that they play now and how teams used to used to take bi-weeks immediately afterwards. Now they're requesting to not have the bi-week immediately afterwards. There's so much more in terms of sophistication around this. How does it factor into your modeling process? The same as everything else travel, rest, all these things you just constantly keep on top of them and there's like a certain amount of number or like docking of win probability, uh, based off of situations. 

26:33
Now jrod asks is the rest advantage I see going around for the nfl actually useful in handicapping? I'm not sure specifically what he's referring to, but I often find that this is over accounted for or overdone a lot of times in content, especially when we're trying to justify our positions. We're talking about the rest situation, but most of that is already built into the numbers. I mean, this is not like. This is an information that people don't have especially rest situations like team playing on a short week against team playing with extra rest, like there's a way to quantify that that's already accounted for in the numbers. So I think, typically speaking with the rest situations, people just go way overboard on that. 

27:16
This is not information that's hidden from the public. Everyone has access to it. If you're not accounting for that stuff, you're doing something wrong. So in terms of its actual usefulness and handicapping, you have to account for it. But it's not gonna like separate you from anyone else. I would never pick a game Like I'd never go out and say you got to bet this team because they're playing on short rest. They're playing on extra rest against a team on short rest. That's already factored into the number. 

27:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, good answer here. So this is a really interesting question that I'm pretty fired up to give a take here on. So rex at rex five king asks five pro bettors with a five hundred thousand dollar bankroll each independently price an mlb game at an average price of minus 150, okay, okay. So we're follow along in here. A syndicate with a $25 million bankroll, so 10 times as much as the combined bankroll of the five pro bettors, makes the exact same game. Pick them. So plus a hundred fair price instead of minus one, 50. Will the market generally reflect the sentiment of the syndicate? And essentially he's saying if you had to pick a side, what side would you pick? Won't give out the numbers and confuse things a little too much. 

28:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so you also said plus 100 instead of even money. Even money you gave away yourself as a fake sportsman. 

28:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm a fake, fake sharp. So what I would say here is when you sum up the five pro bettors, take a look at that 500K, 2.5 million total is what they're kind of working with. Let's say they're betting 2%. Let's say they're betting 1.5%. They're looking to probably bet a cumulative 40 dimes on the game on back. 

29:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Totally redeems himself. 

29:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So they're looking to bet 40 grand on the game, total okay, base price or potentially, yeah, like it'll be a little bit more than that, kelly staking with the minus 150 and it looks like they have. They seem to have a big edge, so they'll bet a little more than that. The 25 million dollar bankroll is going to significantly bet way more than them. They're going to bet roughly 10x the amount the end of the day. There are certain scenarios, so this is not 100%. There are certain scenarios in which this will not hold true. We can't really get into those on the show. It's like higher level stuff. But there's a lot of scenarios in which you know it's not exactly going to run like this and a couple of people so you don't come after me, I'm aware it's not always going to be like this and a couple people, so you don't come after me. I'm aware it's not always going to be like this, but the majority of the time and for the most amount of people here, is how it will work. 

29:52
The syndicate price will be the closing price and the reason is the money shapes the market. Whoever has the most money will shape the market, end of story. There's no other. There's literally nothing else to factor in, unless you're going to talk about, like some random one percent stuff that I'm mentioning in the background here. But for the average better to understand this, if, especially if you're just learning betting, the syndicate will shape the market price 99 of the time. 

30:18
Reason being more money shapes the market. They're going to be able to bet more based on their staking amount. They're going to be able to shape that market. Therefore, with just this information, would I bet the team A at minus 115 or team B at plus 105? In my opinion, the only correct answer is you'd bet team B at plus 105 all the time. So you want to be getting the CLV and this price will likely close around a true price of plus 105, meaning the plus 105 will probably be about neutral and the minus 115 would be negative EV. So, in summation, actually, probably in this scenario, wouldn't bet either of those prices. However, if I had to choose one, I bet the plus 05. 

31:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think that's a good answer. Few caveats, obviously. Like, the notion of a syndicate is that they're sharp. So like these, these there are going to be scenarios where someone has a big bankroll, puts down money that's not going to move the market. 

31:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is all of the info we have right now, correct, correct, and if you're going to say so, I've made this argument. Sorry, because you make a really good point that I forgot to mention. If it's a syndicate, if it's just like a rich guy who's dunking money on games, but, that's not what we're talking about. 

31:28
We're talking about a syndicate with a $25 million B roll and in this scenario, the way I look at this is this is the info we have. This is the move we make. The other info we might be able to get is all the syndicates losing. If they're losing, they're not going to have a 25 mil B roll for long, and if the five pro batters are winning, it's going to auto-correct in the long run. So this might not be efficient over a one game sample, or even over a one or a two year sample, but in the long run, that's how it works and if you're looking at this scenario with the info we have, it's quite obvious. 

31:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think this is a really good question, honestly, maybe one of the best ones that we've ever gotten. So at the end of the day, the syndicate has a $25 million bankroll. For a reason I'm a big believer in crowdsourcing. Like I would love to have access to five pro bettors numbers, but they're betting at a certain level that is not the level of the syndicate and that makes that opinion that much more important. In my opinion, there might be a chance at one of those times that those pro bettors will. They're gonna increase their bankroll over time, but that syndicate has already realized like a very large edge and got to that overall amount. I would give the same answer to you. I'm very, very interested in the general discourse around this question and if people do wanna answer in the comments below, would love to hear your answer. I am a believer in the closing line. 

33:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Great question, all right Up. Next, what's the best way to get sports books to offer a sport that they don't currently offer? So I guess honestly, rob, you can answer this one, because you got World Putting League odds up. 

33:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, yes, yes, now there's a little bit more momentum behind that. Obviously, if you want a book to offer a sport that they don't currently offer, it's probably because you think you can beat this sport. So I think, do not ever do it from your actual sports book account. Like, don't, don't message customer service or email them with the account on hand that says like, hey, can you please add x, y and z. That's probably going to get you flagged at like 99 of the shops. Just don't do that period anything. But that is totally acceptable. Like, go, if you have an alias on Twitter, reach out to them on Twitter. I'm a big fan of this. It'd be great if you could add it. You got some burner email addresses, email support or whatever. Just don't do it from the actual account that you're betting. And also, I'm not. I live my life in a very kosher, you know, straight ahead manner. I'm pretty honorable guy generally speaking, but I would probably add something about along the lines of you're just a fan of the sport, just to make it seem like. 

34:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hey, can you add this QB player prop for XFL for Sunday. 

34:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That now that's way like that's more challenging, cause that's a specific market right when it's like there's there's that's more challenging for a specific market right, where it's like that's more challenging For a specific league, like a smaller league. I mean, you're probably not gonna make it a lot of headway if it's not widely available. But just the one thing that you don't do is do it directly from the account that you wanna bet into it with. 

34:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right. Before we continue with the questions, I just want to say if you're a fan of the show, if you enjoy the content we produce, if you guys want to support the show, head on over to betstampapp. Slash circles off. You can sign up for a new sportsbook. There's really no reason not to, unless you're fully maxed out and sign up on every single sportsbook in your region. You're not making enough money because you can get the sign up bonus. You can actually sign up and get better odds added into your rotation. Easy money also, again, help support the show. We would really appreciate it. Links in the description. Please head on over. Next question is each way betting on golf outright slash horses becoming more popular in North America with the influx of UK bookies opening up. So for each way betting is essentially you bet the winner, you bet the top five, you can do the top 10. It's just like combines it into one. So if you miss the outright but your guy still come, your golfer still comes in the top three, you'll win some money. 

35:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so I can't speak to the horse racing market. In fact, in ontario there's no regulated. You can't bet horse racing at a sports book anyways. Um, but when covet happened, golf kind of blew up because it was one of the sports that was back earlier. It was one of the things that people could bet on and there was just way more betting content and popularity amongst the sport and naturally each way betting became a little bit more popular at that time because of the fact that it's kind of like risk mitigation, hedging bets and like a lot of recreational players will tend to do that instead of putting all of their eggs in one basket. So I think it just was the popularity of like golf really that has made this more popular in other markets, rather than the influx of UK bookies opening up. 

36:37
That's my opinion. It's just like a standard type of golf bet that when there was more popularity and more people started infiltrating the golf market, it started to spread into some other stuff as well. That's my two cents on the situation. I could totally be wrong, but again, I've been betting for a long time. I'm surrounded in life by people who bet not just professionally but recreationally, and this is my experience with that. 

37:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I lose in football every year, says Blair Scouts. Is it even worth it to bet the NFL if you're just a rec? Better, honestly, of course. If the fun outweighs and the entertainment value outweighs the amount you are losing every year, then that's a fair EV move. If it doesn't, then obviously you need to be quitting and stop betting. You shouldn't be betting if you know you're going to lose and it's not fun for you. But I would say try to improve a little line, shop around, make sure you're not getting too much bad value. Maybe follow some picks this year, take some of the stress off and enjoy it and have some fun. It's not going to be easy to win and turn a profit. If you're just a rec bettor and you're not taking it too seriously, that doesn't mean you have to quit betting altogether. As long as you're using it as entertainment value only and getting good value out of it, no issue. 

37:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think Blair can watch the video that I recorded entitled One Simple Trick to Win More Money Betting on Sports. That would help him a lot. The reality is lots of people lose betting the NFL just because they don't give themselves the best chance to win. Like I don't have enough information to answer this question, if you're losing money year in, year out betting the NFL, you're doing something wrong, obviously. So now it's identifying the root cause of what you're doing wrong. Are you placing all of your bets on Sunday, the day of the games, like you're not going to win doing that Flat out? There's very few people in the world who can actually win doing that, so it's not going to be some recreational better. I hate to be candid, but that's going to be the case. If you're betting at one specific sports book, it's going to be very hard to overcome minus 110 betting on NFL sides and totals right. 

38:53
There's not enough information for me to answer this, but obviously what you're doing is not working. So you have one of two decisions you continue going down that path because you're getting value out of the entertainment of betting on the NFL and you say to yourself I'm not going going to win, but I have fun doing this and you're betting responsibly. That's okay. Or number two, you figure out what the root cause of your horrible track record is, whether that's through tracking your bets via third-party app, likestamp or whatever it may be. But you got to know the root cause of why you're losing and I would say that I wouldn't give you know. I didn't give up. I lost money betting on the NFL for 10 years regularly. I just took a step back and said obviously what I'm doing is not working. I have to figure out how to do something that works, and that's led me to where I am now. 

39:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What percentage edge do you consider a worthwhile bet? For example, if something's minus one 10, no VIG, and you make it minus 11, would you bet a one cent edge or do you have a threshold? So I'll give out some like actually try to give out real info, like most pro bettors will do, like you can either do 0.5% ed and up 1%, one and a half, two depends on the threshold, how long you've been in, and then the hold of the market. Only thing I'll say is this if you're going to do a 0.5% edge and above and you're picking off the best prices and the best price is a 0.5% edge, which means that the market is probably a bit regressed from from that best price, it's probably not the best thing to do. So, all in, like I'd be careful. 

40:30
Um, now, you definitely you don't want to be betting minus 11. If you make some, you don't be betting minus 10. If you make something minus 11, it's it's not. If you even just look at kelly staking, you'd be betting so little on that. Anyways, what I'd say is probably stick to around two percent though yeah, I would. 

40:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's no right answer. Completely agree with you. Depends on your risk tolerance as well. Uh, I think people. 

40:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wanted to give a percentage. I don't want to say like oh, it depends on your risk tolerance, I'll give them two percent I. 

40:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I use a one and a half percentage, okay to justify a bet in in pretty much all the sports I do. Um, at times it was 1% before, but I've since upped that and that's been based off of tracking records for years. Right, there's another thing you want to do. If you're actually modeling and you have percentage edges, bucket them and track them. How do you do on bets where you have a 1.5% edge? How do you do on bets you have 2%? How do you do on bets you have 3%? The big mistake I see is people actually, you know, have an edge and then they pick a, a like a margin that's too high, like the, the I'm only betting 5% edges and they end up with like not enough volume. Don't do that either, I mean. But yeah, one and a half percent is me personally's like real, my models send me alerts. 

41:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Real value what percentage value of a free bet amount is a fair price to sell the free bet to someone? For instance, someone lets you help play a promo that results in a free bet and for convenience settling up, it is easier to have them buy the free bet and bet it themselves. All right, so I I vaguely understand what you're saying here, but so you got a free bet of $1,000. 

42:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What are you selling it to? For someone else. 

42:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, so we can quantify that pretty easily. The value of the free bet again try to give a practical info here roughly around 60%. So if you're just selling it, if you gave me no other info other than I got a free bet, I'd say you sell it at 60% of value. However, it honestly very much depends on the terms of that free bet. So can you bet it on a plus 1,000 straight? Can you bet it on a parlay? Can you bet it on only odds up to a certain range, obviously. What sports can you bet it on? Does it expire? Yada, yada, yada. 

42:45
So I wouldn't necessarily say all free bets are equal. Even within the regulated US brand sports books, canadian brand sports books, it would be significantly different in terms of the amount of value. I touched on this before. When you have a free bet, you want to place it on something that has as high a plus odds as possible because you don't return the stake amount. However, if it's a free bet that returns a portion of the stake now it's a new calculation that we have to do so without any other info 60%, but you should be able to calculate it yourself. 

43:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can calculate the EV on this Really. At the end of the day, what would I sell? 

43:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it for Probably the EV plus a dollar, if you're asking me, but also like if he's just trying to sell it for simplicity and it's like a wreck better, and stuff like that. Like, just do it, like honestly, 50 percent 50 50 split seems more than fair. 

43:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, on something like that all right up next. 

43:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, this one I'll let you get again, rob. Here it's on some ranking stuff, so would love to hear your thoughts on rankings. Looking at nfl right now, everyone's releasing their team rankings. Are they useful garbage? Is their value in pre-season versus during the season? Are they useful for a big picture type of thing? Great work, as always. Love listening each week. Thank you very much. We appreciate, uh, your support in the show. Go sign up for another book, if you haven't already, to support the show. But also, rob, what are your thoughts on the? 

44:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
rankings. Okay, this is a very loaded question. So are rankings useful? Depends on who's putting out the rankings, like when pro football focus puts out their nfl rankings on mike florio you know, had a couple glasses of scotch before he set up the graphic and sent out the tweet. Obviously that's not useful. If you do have someone with like a long-term track record of success giving you rankings, even if there's not power ratings attached to something, it might be helpful in some way. 

44:35
Ultimately, rankings are more of a content play than anything else. If we're being, you know, real here, there's not a whole lot of value that you're going to obtain. Other than that, there are going to be people that you respect in the space that you know, with a pretty high degree of like likelihood, that they're winners. That might put something out that causes you to investigate a little bit more, maybe even substantiates, like your opinion on something that's important sometimes as well, where you have like an opinion on a team and then you see someone else who shares that opinion and you value their opinion. That like gives you like a confidence boost or something along those lines. But I mean candidly, probably not of immense value in any way. 

45:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Practical advice, definitely no value. Practical, practical advice, no value. Because people look at those and they think they can bet the games based on that. Like, think about this, you don't even know how much is actually going into modeling up ground up NFL right now. So to think that you're going to beat it because one site said the Buc bucks is ahead of the panthers, and then you have them higher on the power ranking and then you look at the game and it's pk like that. How? Where are you using the rankings like? I don't understand how the average guy would just take the rankings and use that to beat sports betting it would be near you, you would have to like add another layer on top but that's what what I'm saying. 

46:06
Practical advice, yeah, the rank and again 1%. Maybe that you could do something with yada, yada, yada, but practical advice probably not. 

46:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm not going to be the guy on gambling Twitter that gives you, like, every edge case possible. I think it's important to speak in terms of like, generally speaking, and I think they're good for content. I think they're good for content, I think they're good for discussion, like if suma, for example, put out he's not going to do that, but if he put out his rankings from 1 to 32, I would gain some value in that, in the sense that I now, a kind of logically, know what teams he's high or low on compared to market, and I might be able to use that to my advantage. It's an extreme case, though, and it's very, very unlikely going to happen. 

46:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough and no, and there's, if he was going to give you like it's not. I'm not saying it's not accurate If you had another pro better who was shaping the markets rankings, excuse me, from one to 32, but I'm again generalizing here for like a rankingscom style site, no that and, by the way, as soon as that's out there again, every person now has access to that right. 

47:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not just you. You know if you really really respect a football handicapper and you know whenever they tweet, it's gonna move the whole market. I'm not. This might not even exist, but let's say it does and they now put out their rankings. You're not the only person. Let's say it does and they now put out their rankings. You're not the only person that's going to see this and in fact, I would argue that what might actually happen is an over-correction. We've seen that in recent years with, like football bettors and influencers where they put out plays, and I think the market sometimes overmoves on that stuff, so potentially it does. 

47:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right. If you could only bet one league for the rest of your life, what league would it be Very easy, NFL. Quick answer yeah. 

47:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean it's not the most profitable league. I cannot imagine my life without betting the NFL. 

48:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Seriously Too much life EV to bet on NFL. To let that go. 

48:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There is nothing better than Sundays during football season. There's nothing that comes close to matching that, especially when it's a good Sunday. 

48:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Last one here, Rob. Favorite games on the golf course Favorite games on the golf course. 

48:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I've played a lot of different games. I think for a fun betting game with friends, wolf is quite fun. Match up with different partners on different holes You're still playing your own game. 

48:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, look up the rules, you don't have to get into it. 

48:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Wolf is fun. I did recently play a betting game that's 2v2. So when you play in a foursome, you take your best golfer and your worst. You pair them together and your two middle golfers pair together. Everyone hits their t shots. Then you play your partner's ball for the second shot and then from there third shot on is just uh is best ball, scramble or whatever scramble or best ball, uh, wherever you're both placing the ball at the best, yeah, so scramble, nice. So that was very, very fun, especially when you play with uh. I recently played with with a friend of mine that's like a three handicap and another person who's like a 40 handicap. So the three handicap is literally bombing 300 yard drives down the pipe and the 40 is in the woods and now the three handicap has to play that buck guy's ball out of the woods. 

49:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Ah, that's actually a good way to play with if you have a good goal and the bad goal he's in the middle of the fairway like shitting his pants because he's like 100 yards in. 

49:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's like sweating. It's so much pressure on him every single time it's a good game it's. It's actually very fun very. 

49:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That is honestly a good game have you guys played high low no, have you played that, johnny? No, oh, maybe. 

49:54 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I just don't know what's the rules basically you go 2v2, you get your partner and then on each hole its points are handed out based on who had the best score and who had the worst score. So if you have the best score and then a guy on the other team has the worst score, you take two points from that hole, got it? So then you eliminate points throughout, basically because if you have the best score and the highest score, then you only get one point on that hole, like et cetera. So that's how you go through. I played that on Friday actually. 

50:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah. 

50:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a pretty fun way to do it, especially if you have like a fairly even group, because then if someone's having a bad hole, if a guy on the other team is having a bad hole like you're not out of it, you can still beat that guy. There's tons of fun games. I I just like to keep the pace moving, that's personally my favorite game by a mile 2v2. 

50:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You pick partners that are like you know where it's going to be a fair game and just rip a 2v2 scramble all the way 18 holes skins. That, personally, is my favorite gambling game for a golf course because it's just like it's fast, but also like when you're playing with another person scramble, which is again you put the ball at the next best spot. But whole way scramble, including putting. When you have that first off, you break par, which is fun to break par. 

51:11
But, also, in addition to that, the pressure on when the first guy goes and shanks, the drive in the woods, and also the game theory in the play of okay, this guy's good, but on this hole we're down, we need to go for the green. You lay up and then I'll try to bomb a three wood onto the green and then another one where it's like, all right, we need to hit the fairway here. On this one, let's go six iron first. If it misses the fairway, don't hit a driver. Hit another six iron just to get on the fairway here. So, like the game theory and that also ends up being an additional avenue that I like- the most game theory I've ever had in a golf game. 

51:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Again, don't know the rules of the game, but it was very interesting. It was a 2v2. Everyone's playing their own ball and their own shot, so me and you are paired up, let's say against another two people. So me and you are playing 36 holes. We only get to keep 18 holes or scores, but we have to choose right at the end of every hole. So at the end of that score, if you keep it or not. 

52:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if you get a bogey, do you keep it? You should, for 36 holes. 

52:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It depends If you get a bogey on the first hole, do you keep? It is a good question. 

52:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Me personally yeah. 

52:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Because what are the chances I'm going to get 18 depends on what the part is as well, but if your first hole is a part five and you bogey, you're gonna have a six on your scorecard. Oh, it includes it includes a total score. It's the actual score that you card on that hole. Oh, you can never. Ah, okay, would you keep like? 

52:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
would you. 

52:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, I wouldn't keep a six. 

52:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, because like then you, you could just bogey, yeah, the par threes you could bogey, and that'd be a four what sucked about this game? 

52:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually like this in theory If you're the only people that are out there and you have time to think about it a little bit more, but I just like to keep playing with golf. I don't want to be standing on the tee talking to my partner for three minutes every hole deciding if we were going to keep the score from the. Each of us is going to keep a score from a previous hole. That was fun, though, and we ended up tying that round as well. 

53:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Nice. All right Time for the positive and negative EV moves of the week. Producer, zach, you're up. 

53:20 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, first and foremost, my positive EV move of the week. You'll like this one. It's line shopping insurance. I got an apartment, apartment had to get uh tenant insurance. Shop around, got the. Not only did I get the best price on insurance, but it actually lowered my car insurance. So money there bundled that all together, I felt like I was stealing from them. But hey, line shopping it applies to everything. If you're gonna line shop, why wouldn't you line shop for your gas, your groceries. 

53:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How much was your tenant insurance? 

53:51 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Like total. I think it's like 45 bucks For the year, no per month, sorry 45 a month. Yeah. 

54:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have no context as to how much this should cost. 

54:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wouldn't put that as a positive EV move of the week. 

54:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm saying the line shopping. He shopped it, but he could have shopped it but it's still minus EV. 

54:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you get a $1 deductible? This guy must have got a sick insurance policy for 45-month line shopping. I can show you what it is. 

54:20 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's also, I'm a 25-year-old male. Yeah, that's true. 

54:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Fine. 

54:24 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's like when I have my car insurance and I was 21 years old buying the car. 

54:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's fair. It is a little more for that. 

54:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, that's the way to do it Okay and negative. 

54:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No great move on the line shopping. Though you don't want to just take the first insurance place, you got it. 

54:40 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, negative EV is basically. I thought it was positive EV to start, turns out not. I'm playing in a lacrosse league now and I hadn't worn my cleats in like six years to field lacrosse and they're a little too small now and I was like all right, whatever, it's like seven games. I'm just going to keep these ones. Negative EV to buy new shoes for it. Yeah, terrible, terrible idea. Blisters all over my feet like two weeks in a row now, bleeding bad, bad move just by the shoes. That would have been the positive ev. That's very it's just a personal one, but that was my negative just just soaked the shoes. 

55:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Man, I heard you're originating some lacrosse now too. 

55:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, we'll talk about that after world-class lacrosse, originator from what I understand, uh, positive ev. I'm gonna go to a tweet from jeff feinberg, um, which had me howling but also reminded me of some stuff that I used to do which is probably really frowned upon. Uh, pro tip, when you tee off in front of old guys who have a ritual tee time and move around the course very fast, if you want to get them off your tail, just toss some old, dead balls around hazards. These men won't be able to resist breaking out the retriever and chance of loose pro v, there is nothing worse. You've played you played with me a lot last year in the mornings. That is actually hilarious, where you have these old guys behind you that literally play the same time every day and you're actually playing fast, like ahead of pace, and they're still up your ass the entire time. I didn't do this, but I would drop range balls on the course near the cart paths that were visible to try to slow them down. Mark can attest to this. I think it was with Mark last year where I'm like Mark, we're like half an hour ahead of pace of play here. These guys are on the tee, they're yelling, they're hitting balls Like I can't stand for that. Like, honestly, these, these guys that go out early in the mornings, they want to get their round done in like two and a half hours. They don't even, they don't even chat with each other to like the. It's like a. They're not even enjoying the round, it's like you're just a boom, boom, boom process. I can't handle that. So, yeah, I, I, I kind of like to fuck around with people that are are like that. So, yeah, I kind of like to fuck around with people that are like that. So I think that's a very plus EV move if you want to keep people off your tail, and negative minus EV. No matter how many times I tell myself not to do this, I do it because I have a problem. 

57:11
Flying hungover is one of the worst things imaginable. You're always like you got the early morning flight. You tell yourself like, ah, is it even worth it for me to go to bed for a couple hours? Wake up for this flight, I'm just going to stay out of later. Have a few drinks you get tanked, you're at the flying hungover. Drinks you get tanked, you're at the flying hungover absolutely is one of the most miserable, worst experiences you can ever have. That final night of vacation. Just take it easy. Get a good rest. Get on that plane. You feel good about yourself. You're not in like, you're not sweating like profusely. People next to you are wondering whether or not you're sick. You actually are. You need to yak everywhere, but you don't want to yak on the plane because you want to be that guy. It is a disaster. Take the final night of your vacation. Your work, travel, whatever you got to do. Tone it down. Get to bed, get to the airport. 

58:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Don't be hungover Very, very bad don't experience it, don't don't experience that all right, I will start with the negative ev move, commenting something negative on twitter or, I guess, on any social media platform. Negative, ev, because there's literally never been anyone that commented something negative on the post that was like actually got anything out of that. It doesn't exist. If you comment something negative, that just brings negativity back into your own life as well. That's number one. Number two who are you? Who are you all of a sudden? Well, my positive one is going to be more of me. 

58:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I was like what the? 

58:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
hell. That was my negative one. My positive EV one is this one. It doesn't affect a lot of people, but starting the cooling function on your Tesla on a hot summer day, right as you're about to putt on the 18th green what a plus EV movement. You will get into your car at the perfect crisp temperature. I hate getting into my car when it's too cold or too hot. Everyone does, I know everyone does. What a move. That is an. 

59:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
EV move For these next two minutes. This is the most unlikable we'll ever be in the history of this podcast, is what? But this is absolutely one of the most plus ev moves imaginable. Like I don't even do when I'm on the green, I do it like when I'm hitting my t shot on 18. It's the first thing, or we've never even talked about this before. But what a move. You also have like the vent feature right. So so I'll like round the ninth hole or whatever. I can check the Listen. I'm not getting paid anything by Tesla. This is free. Tesla is a very quality brand. You get the interior temperature thing, so I hit the vent, pop the windows a little bit, but as soon as I hit 18, I put those windows back up. Reduce that air conditioning. It's a life changer, man, I think sometimes. What about the winter too? 

01:00:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Winter, the heat, the heating feature. 

01:00:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Honestly, I have only good things to say. But I still have a secondary car which I've shared on this podcast before. It's a Chevy Volt. Okay Now, my wife, diana, mostly drives the Chevy Volt, not because I'm like some elitist male who says, oh, you can only drive the Volt, it's because we have a one-car garage and typically I leave first. I take the Tesla, which we park outside. Don't ask me why we do that, but anyways, we do. Sometimes I have to drive the Volt volt and I'll drive it to golf. Man, I'll get in there after the round. I'm like suffocating, I'm, I'm, I never. It's like a sauna when you get into that car. You can run the air when you're, but it's already too late. Yes, it's already. So, anyways, I hope. Yeah, so, uh, so anyways, I hope yeah, so listen. 

01:01:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Is that an unlikable, you know? 

01:01:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
what you guys are saying. You're walking off the golf course into your pre-air conditioned Tesla. 

01:01:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, I didn't think about it like that. Yes, however, I have worked hard in life for the things that I have and, in terms of plus EV, what this segment is if you got a Tesla or any car Any car where you can preheat, the thing when you can preheat pre-air condition. This is absolutely and you golf, this is a must do. It is the best Getting into that cold car, oh man Listen the point of this segment it's better than the golf. 

01:01:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What Rob told me. The point of this segment was this he, he thought of this and he's like all right, whenever you just in, when you're like during the week and something happens, just if you think it's a bad move and you notice it, write it down and say it on the show. If you think it's a good move, say it on the show and without a do I was golfing I was on the 18th. 

01:02:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Where did you play? 

01:02:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I played. We won't get into it, but I played it wasn't. It wasn't a great round, I'll say that, okay, terrible round, but I played. I was on the 18th green the previous round. I forgot to cool my car and I went there and I'm like holy, why did I forget this? Now I have it in green, 18th green. When you step up, you put the driver cover on. That's another EV move. Put the driver cover on after you hit the drive Every time On 18. 

01:02:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, but every time I put the driver cover on, I take it on and off. Okay, that might be a negative. No EV move. You got to protect the technology. 

01:02:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You protect the technology, but at what cost? It's not that it takes five seconds, it takes five seconds, all right. Anyways, I did it this week and I walked in the car a nice, cool car and I said, wow, now that's a plus EV move of the week. 

01:02:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I totally agree with you not to extend this even further. But if you, I don't know what you have black interior. Yes, yeah, you got it, it's. It's so much. I got black the car. What is like 45 Celsius in Fahrenheit justheit just for the american listeners. But like that's what the car gets up to, it's absurd. It's like 113, it's nuts. That's what every car gets up to, pretty much in the hot side. That's what I'm saying like you gotta, you gotta, you gotta do it you gotta do it anyways. 

01:03:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This has been episode 111 here on the hammer betting network. Thank you everybody for tuning in. See y'all next week.