00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. We're talking about the NFL betting market and how you can find value at different points in the week. If you bet early, what do you look for. If you're betting later on throughout the week, what do you look for? We're going to dive into it. Try to find you some value. All that and more on this week's Circles Off. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 120, right here. Part of the Hammer Betting Network, I'm Rob Pizz pazola, joined by johnny from betstamp. 

00:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How goes it? Very good, back in full swing, as always. Number 20, episode 120 20 man so I know it's tough. We got one guy who I can vividly remember on the leafs from my uh, my childhood. He was a net minder. Oh man, what's man Eddie the. 

00:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Eagle Belfort. I believe Ed Belfort once got pulled over for a DUI. Don't want to rehash on some bad stuff, but I believe the story was that he offered the police officer a billion dollars to let him go. I'm pretty sure if you look up an Ed Belfort story it came out he offered the officer a billion dollars. Also, do you remember when Ed Belfort was like Hall of Fame, inducted into the Hall of Fame Jeans and a leather jacket? 

01:12
Oh man, what a look that was. Did you know that, johnny? I did not know that. Oh, jeans and a leather jacket Barry Sanders, number 20. I should have remembered that that my childhood and I was a huge Barry Sanders fan. There was always, like me growing up, cowboys fan. There was always like the debate of who's better, emmitt Smith or Barry Sanders. It was obviously Barry Sanders. Emmitt Smith had like the best offensive line of all time, but that's a big one and current Cowboy. Look at that. Oh that see, this is the. This is the yeah, next to Doug Gilmore there. That that was the look, man. You know what? 

01:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
lean into it, eddie, if that's your style it takes some like you got to be a type of guy to be a net minder in the nhl he would have been. 

01:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He would have been turned away from, uh, the sporting sports betting hall of fame. Induction by spanky. If he was wearing that. Uh, tony pollard right now. Where's 20? Dallas cowboy uh, ed reed was a 20. Good, ray allen. Ray hallen nba yeah, ray, but uh, that was when he was with the celtics. Um, yeah, ray allen, when he was with the celtics, wore 20. Yeah, he wore a different number with I can't remember the number he wore with the. Oh man, I'm trying to remember anyways. Any good baseball players 20. I I never. Do you ever like remember baseball player numbers? 

02:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Just curious if you do Like Roy Holiday, pretty much only. 

02:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't ever remember baseball player numbers, Even my favorite players. Carlos Delgado was my favorite player growing up. I have no idea what number he is. 

02:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even know what his number is either. Jose Bautista, though, did we get him last week or no 19. I don't think we mentioned him last week. 

02:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, we didn't, oh boy. Well, that was a mistake. That was a mistake, jose. What was also a mistake on my part was a parlay the parlay heard around the world this past week that I tweeted about. First of all, the mistake was probably tweeting about it for one, but did you know what I'm talking about? Yeah, I saw your tweet, but I'd love to hear the story. So, first and foremost, I tweeted, I placed a 252 to one parlay to make one of my accounts look square, and it won, lol. 

03:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wait, hold up, Before you get into this story. I think you should tell people about a place where you don't need to make your account look square. 

03:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know why I was going to do it afterwards, but totally acceptable. If I was betting at Pinnacle Sportsbook, the world's sharpest sportsbook, I would not have had to do something like that. Pinnacle is available to bettors in Ontario. Find out what professional bettors have known for decades 25 years actually Pinnacle's, where the best bettors play. Bet smart, bet Pinnacle, and use code HAMMER H-A-M-M-E-R. If you're signing up to Pinnacle in Ontario, as it does, help support us here on Circles Off, you have to be 19 plus, not available in the US. And, of course, as always, please play responsibly. And the beauty of Pinnacle, like I mentioned, is you bet there, your limits are going to be the same as everyone else all the time. You don't have to do what's called like account grooming in the space right now. 

04:01
But anyways, I made this tweet and I'll describe the story. I'm not going to name the sports book because it doesn't matter. People could probably figure it out based off the prices or whatever. But on Sunday this past week, right before the late game started, right before the four o'clock games, I'm like I don't have an account here in this book under my name or whatever. I deposited 2,500 bucks into this and I'm like this was not with the intention of making money. What I like to do with a lot of the more recreational accounts is like put in some more what I would deem square action when I first start betting into the account as to not tip my hand, that this is like sharp, sharp action. Now I'm signed up in my real name so maybe like this is just a fruitless exercise anyways, and as soon as I sign up, they like flagged the account or whatever. But I put 2,500 bucks in and there was four late games in the NFL, the four o'clock games, and right before each one started, like a minute before, I put 500 bucks a nickel on the over in every single one of those games. I think that's like a pretty like square thing to do Bet last minute, throw some money on the over in the game. Well, we're approaching the half in these games. I'm like, oh my, I'm like these are all going to hit to the over. They're going to see that this account deposited 2,500 bucks. It won 2,000 on these. Maybe like some trader's going to review this and like I'm going to be on the radar, so I'm like I got to start firing and donking off some parlays here, so I did. 

05:36
This wasn't the only parlay that I placed. I don't think so. At least, I was trying to rip stuff in real time, but obviously odds come off the board. It's hard when you're live betting to parlay in some instances, but I got a scenario where the Giants were losing 21-0 to the Cardinals they were 10-1 on the money line and the Commanders were losing 21-3 to the Broncos and they were 22-1 on the money line and I parlayed them together at a price of 252 to one and naturally they both won. So, in attempting to literally lose over the course of the day, I ended up winning a bunch maybe costing myself EV in the long run of what this account could be worth over time. But I just thought it was a funny story Like this is why I ended the tweet with LOL. 

06:27
It just happened in my life and I, like Twitter or X is sometimes just an extension of our lives Like lots of people just tweet things that happened in their life. There was no like ulterior motives or anything like that, so I just wanted to put that out there as, like this is the reason. It's just an extent, like I didn't even think about it. Like this happened. Here it is it blew up, got a ton of views like a couple hundred thousand views altogether, but that's a true story. That's what happened. As of now, I don't know if there's if I've been limited on the account or not or whatever, but that's that happened. 

07:06
But I had to congrats so like I didn't even know if I was and it's a small bet, by the way, it's $10 bet to win $2,520. It's nothing. I fired a bunch of little part lays in game. It's not like it's life-changing money, but you just dunked a tenner. Well, russell wilson hits the hail mary for the broncos at the end. So there's gonna be a two-point conversion and as I'm watching that play, I actually didn't know if I was rooting for it to win or not. I was so conflict I didn't know what I was supposed to be. Do you know what I'm getting at? Yeah, I'm like I might as well just take the money at this point. Right, it's that close to winning. 

07:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I might as well just take it, the Cardinals had won already. Sorry, had blown it already. I should say. 

07:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that Hail Mary too. I've watched a lot of Hail Marys in my day. Best one. That one was amazing. It's not getting enough credit for the fact that all the things that had to happen for it to get to the end the ball to get to the end the ball, to get to the end zone first of all that's. 

08:10
That's an endeavor like that ball traveled probably 10 yards further than it would have in any other and russ has got a good arm, yeah, so like he, he aired it out there and the altitude caused to go a little bit more, but all the deflections to get into the end zone. It started like there was a play on sunday night football where there was a blocked field goal, where Chris Collinsworth on the broadcast is like all the teams are going to do this. Now where it was like I don't know if you saw, but it was essentially the guy who would normally be covering the gunner on the, on the panic, yeah, just kind of like. 

08:36
Slowly creep towards the line of scrimmage and ran and blocked the field goal unblocked, and Collinsworth is like you're going to see the whole league do that now. And I'm thinking with this, hail Mary, why do teams not get their best jumper out there to just tip the ball up? 

08:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
into the air 100 billion zillion percent. They should be doing that. When's the last time you've seen a Hail Mary of that many yards get caught outright? I think it's maybe Aaron Rodgers, when he had those two. 

09:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And that was completely misplayed by the defenders. They just like misplayed it and I can't remember who caught it, but they high pointed it, or? 

09:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
whatever. Every hail mary that gets caught now is basically it just there's guys in the back and then they a defender goes and tries to catch it instead of just trying to bat it down or something, or he there's too many hands there. It gets tipped out and then a guy grabs it and how many? We've even seen so many where it'll get tipped up and it's there and then, just like a defender, grabs it. You're like, oh okay, no hail mary, right, but it's so much more likely to get caught like you, just want it just put the ball up. 

09:38
In that scenario they still had. If the guy caught it like they have, literally like the commander's defense could have backed off. Yep, let someone from Denver catch it and then just tackle it. Instead they go for a scrum. It gets tipped up and he catch, double tip, triple tip, catch in the end zone. 

09:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now, I never played like high school or college football or anything Like. I don't know what you're trained in these situations. I know back in the day like the commentators would get so upset when the defender didn't knock it down. But I actually do remember a Hail Mary where, like a defender tried to knock it down and like hit his fingertips and just went like up in the air. So I don't hate that the guys sometimes, like I would at least go two hands and try to like actually pull it down to the ground rather than like the one hand swat where it just like. But this seems to me like if you're gonna do a hail mary, the probability of tipping it up into the end zone and getting a catch is, in my opinion, way higher than just a bunch of people scrum together all jumping for the ball. 

10:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
One additional hack, though. One additional hack. When's last time you've seen a ref throw a flag for, uh, defensive pass interference on a hail mary? Um, I'll tell you when. Okay, never been done, it's never been done. No, like, obviously it has been done, but in a big scrum like they don't call it man. So, just like you know, you got to just grab and claw. They don't call that, it happened uh, I'm gonna find the game. 

10:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It did happen in my lifetime it did happen, I don't remember the game. 

11:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It would probably have to be super obvious Like cause they they don't call that man, they're all. They're all getting mauled there. It's just okay they don't call it for um, it happened two years ago. 

11:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Vikings got busted for pass interference on a hail Mary against the bucks. It would happen in 2020. It was the first time it had happened since 2008, so I've been 12 years in between, but I did. 

11:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's been 14 years for one listen, 15 years and there's been one I ain't gonna be the ref that throws the flag on the hill and nobody. And that's the thing nobody wants to. 

11:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's so many people jostling for position. 

11:34 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Like good, it has to be egregious all right, here's the one I thought about yesterday. I didn't think about the tipping, that's a pretty good one, but the one I was thinking about yesterday is you know who? In rugby, when they pick the, what is it? They call them the hooker. Is that what it is? 

11:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, I don't know the positions. 

11:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, okay, maybe you don't pick the person up, but as they jump, you know when you're like a kid and someone helps, you dunk and they boost you so you get two guys on either side and you pick like the tallest person jumps and as they jump you both push up on either side. That's how you get them up there. 

12:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was the first one. It's like you're raising them up at a wedding or something you know, because, like, is there any rule against that? That guy's going to get clotheslined and let that work. 

12:12 - Zack Phillips (Other)
If that works, bro, there's no way, but he's going up there anyways Like, are you trying? 

12:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
how much are, first see if it works and then they'll bring it to the. I appreciate your thought process and trying to gain an edge. 

12:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don't I don't know how real, how realistic, watching too much kicking and screaming. 

12:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know that movie. 

12:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh yeah, yeah, pass the ball to the italians I'm saying you know the part where they pick up the, the little kid I don't, I don't remember I don't know if I remember that, I don't remember it. Well, dude, that's like the game. Tying goal in the main game Is it in the championship game. 

12:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, Bjornsang. 

12:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The big guy picks him up and then Bjornsang headers it in. 

12:49 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I do remember this now. Yes, that's so funny. 

12:52
The other thing I think just because we thought about it last year and we did like what rules would you change to make the game whatever? I have mine, because I didn't have one last year. I thought about it yesterday. We've been thinking about it for a year now. I was just watching yesterday and there was one play that happened and I was like that's the rule, okay. So there was a punt and it was going to be landing on like the one yard line and the team that kicked the punt ran down and the uh, the guy who was chasing down I guess it's the gunner at that point he's going down there he caught it on the one yard line. Here's my rule if you catch the ball, you keep possession. When your team punts it, you keep possession. 

13:32
So basically, it's as if it's a throw yes, and if you catch it and you step in the end zone, like that guy, like everyone on the other team, just runs away, they don't. They could just do that so obvious. Yeah, but you could just do that. 

13:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so obviously because like you have to that. So obviously Because you have to. What if you fair catch? Exactly how many times does the guy get there before the fair catch, where he could actually catch it? 

13:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, not that common, but I'm just saying, you could do it. 

13:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're forcing the defender to field it. 

13:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It would be able to happen every time though, because they're punting for distance right now. 

14:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If they just punted straight for height, yeah, no distance, you could catch that every time or sorry. 

14:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean like if it's a scrum, then how do you, how do you handle that? It wouldn't be be able to happen in the cfl with the no yards rule no yards, no yards. No one didn't even know what that people don't even know the americans have no idea what you get a flag if you, if you like, are within five yards of a guy when he catches no yards. 

14:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like a. It's like a 15 yard. It's like something absurd. It's the dumbest rule, but I'm thinking we go backwards. 

14:27 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, player safety, take it away a little bit, turn it down a notch. 

14:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, you would force the defender to field the punt at the one. Yeah, I'm down. Like they could call a fair catch and catch it themselves, but then they're starting on the one I just don't see how this rule works, because it'd be a scrum. 

14:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The offense and the defense would be both fighting to catch it, and then who catches it, who gets to catch it? 

14:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think you still have to give the defense priority. But if the guy walks away from the ball and says I'm not going to or doesn't signal for a fair catch, then the offense is fair game. That's my lie, I think this rule is a little bit out there. 

15:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, it is. Yeah, I knew that. 

15:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, I got something actually. So one of my buddies who listens to Pizzola a lot no one knows why. 

15:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sorry, I feel sorry for this guy. 

15:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So he's been betting NFL for about I would say now going on probably 15 years-ish same time. I would say now going on probably like 15 years ish, same time, you know. And um, he's got the exact same strategy every single week, without a doubt. He does this five games spread, yeah. Or if it's a really tight game, sometimes they'll go with the money line, like if it's within minus, like 20 aside, yep. So take five games only. Never will take four games, never will take six games, five a week, no matter what, and he just bets them all for a hundred bucks and then he just sweats those five games out. He just truly does pick the games he likes and if it's not a sunday, if it's like he doesn't have the night game, he doesn't the monday night, it's only sunday, okay, okay, sometimes I love the sunday nighter. Okay, sometimes I'll just like four in the one o'clockers. 

16:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Does he have the expectation of winning money he is trying for like rec? 

16:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's had multiple winning seasons. He's definitely down overall, but he knows that, but he's had winning seasons. Does he care though? Like yeah, he's not, he's not horrible and uh, like you know, since with bet, sam and stuff he is line shopping a couple accounts- now okay but he's not super serious about it to the way he's like he's picking his picks okay, and then he hammers them okay. 

16:36
Now here's the and and also, by the way, just given that like five picks a week throughout the full nfl season, that's such a little amount of bets it's, so it's like very possible to win 100 years in a row. 

16:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, 100, yeah, yeah, even if you have a slightly negative 18 times five. That was, that's what 60. Am I doing the math in my head correctly? 

16:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know, I'm 18 times five would be, nine would be almost 100, 90, 90, yeah, number 92. 

16:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So even, even if you have four seasons, 360 games like that's. That's still well within the range of like random variants and it's all. 

17:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's already on the spreads and now he's line shopping. So he's really, even if he's just coin flipping, it's not that big of a negative edge, but what he's doing is basically like it's a big, uh, fantasy player as well. So he's looking like, okay, this guy, this, this team, this team, and he just figures out like what. He's capping it like the regular fan would got it. Okay, oh, raiders, suck giants are trash this week like whatever. Okay. So if you hear his explanations, it'll sound exactly like the guy who plays fantasy that doesn't know. We and we all, we all roast him for it. It's nothing he doesn't know, okay. So here's what he asked me this week. Okay, he has been listening to pazola. He's actually a fan now of the early week, the, the late night show you have on saturday, on sunday nights, the one that just breaks down, I don't even know what's called what's that show? 

17:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so sunday nights we we just call it forward progress. It's on the forward progress youtube channel. It's myself, it's clive bixby, it's 8 pm eastern time every sunday night and basically what we do is we recap the day that was and we pull up the pinnacle odds board for the upcoming week and say like where we think the lines are going to move, which direction we think they're going to go, both sides in total, so it's about 90 minutes show, but yeah, we have some fun with it on sunday nights so a that's a great show, good recap for everyone. 

18:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Go check that out, um, if you want to recap, if you're not done with football by the end of Sunday. But the question he asked me was he's been listening to you for a while, listens to this podcast and he's been saying he knows now, based on, like the CLV conversation that we had, that he needs to beat the closing line to win money in the long run. But and he knows that the best way to beat the closing line is to line shop as well as to bet earlier in the week. So you have a better chance at a softer line, especially if you're only betting a hundred bucks to go through it. Okay, so he's aware of those two. 

18:52
But the question that he asked me, which I didn't even know what to answer, is he knows he has to bet early week, but how, like what does he actually look for to bet early week? Because this year what he said is he's been. He switched up his strategy. So the thing I told you about 100 now he's doing every monday morning placing 50 on the five sides he wants, okay, and then sunday morning he re-ups to 50, no matter, no matter what, on the same teams. Okay, so let's say he likes arizona plus six or something. He'll bet arizona plus six on monday. If that line's plus eight on sunday, he re-ups another 50. So he's splitting half and half his bets, yes, so that he can basically track it and see, like, if the early would have won more than the late. Okay, what he's asked me, though, is why? How would he know, like, which ones to wait for, which ones to not wait for? So I wonder if you had any insight. Okay, I do. 

19:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can talk about this ad nauseum. I'm not going to dive into his strategy, by the way. 

19:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He knows it's not a good strategy, but it's a fun way for him to not go overboard. And just cap it to I'm only betting five games a week. 

19:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For sure. If people have problem gaming issues or could get out of hand capping it at that, I have no problem with that. But just for the people that don't or like don't understand why I wouldn't like that, any arbitrary number of games. I don't like doing stuff like that, because you might have two edges on one nfl sunday and 10 the next week, but by limiting yourself to five that week where there's only two edges, you're now playing three games that you might not like as much as like a following week or previous, and the weeks where you do like a lot of games you now have to dial it back. 

20:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I'm not a fan. It's not a good. It's not a good strategy. You never want to tie yourself on a. 

20:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I gotta bet only this, or only exactly, but at the same time people, how much do you mimic the vegas contests, right like the circa millions and the westgate? 

20:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
honestly, you've been doing that for as long as I could even remember, before I even knew about those contests. Okay, but no, hey, hear me out, because I do think it's important, like a lot of people are. They have all these random strategies for NFL. They're like, okay, I bet, like you told me there's guys who bet like they'll bet the one game for the one o'clock, one game for the four, and they always bet the Sunday, monday and Thursday so they have one late yep just to watch. Listen, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. It's definitely not the best roi ev strategy to win money, yes, but if you really factor in like the entertainment value of it, like doing five a week or having like a consistent strategy where you actually never go overboard, you don't have the ability to donk winnings or chase losses on the night game, like I think that's honestly, for a lot of people, good I don't disagree. 

21:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I think in a lot of instances, depending on the person, they might be way better off doing that. Like you know the funny, you're a close friend of mine. But he's gonna pick the, the one o'clock game, the four o'clock game, he's gonna bet the same amount on both and then, no matter what, he's gonna bet double on the eight o'clock every single night, like, but it's, that's like his thing and that's all he's gonna do. And worst case scenario is gonna be down four units for the week. He's gonna move on to the next week or. But so many times he just breaks even because he wins the one and the four and then loses the eight. But whatever, anyways, let's get into this. 

21:56
So for those that don't know, when I do forward progress on sunday nights, 8 pm eastern, look ahead to the next week. I do not have my own numbers on the games yet. Okay, I don't make my own numbers or finalize my own numbers personally till tuesday morning. So I'm in the same boat as every recreational better at that point. Which is, which way is this line more likely to move? 

22:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so what have you done, though? You just, you just looked at the look ahead lines and you know who's playing, who. 

22:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's it so all I know is what the matchups are for the upcoming week. That's it. I pull up the odd screen. I don't know what the look ahead line is. That might be helpful for some people but, honestly, because the limits are so low on the look ahead lines, people find themselves like naturally rooted in. That's what the line should be. This is an overreaction or under reaction and they forget about all the things that might have happened in that actual week where the look ahead line doesn't apply anymore yeah, also, even the look ahead line could have just be an offline that gets bet into place anyways as an opener 100. 

22:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So it's yeah, it's not really that valuable. 

23:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll walk through my process on a sunday NFL and I'm not saying every single person has to do it, but this is what works for me. And there's going to be times where we do forward progress on Sunday night, like we did in week one of the NFL season. We did at the end of week one all the, basically every single line that we thought was going to move in a certain direction for week two did move that direction for week two and Clive messages me the next morning and he'd be like holy shit, like these all just moved the way that. Do you think it's us that's moving them? I'm like no, because now this past week when we did it, we got some games wrong and that's gonna happen over time. You just can't accurately predict every single movement. 

23:38
But this is what I do on Sunday. Sunday one o'clock games I watch Red Zone in my basement by myself. You can have your friends, whatever, but I'm watching the games just to enjoy them and sweat bets. Once the one o'clock games are done, I go to my office and my computer. For the four o'clock games I put Red Zone up on the TV in front of me, but I'll be at my desk actually working and the first thing I'm going to do is compile injury reports from the one o'clock games so I have a permanent spreadsheet. I would recommend everybody if you're betting the NFL, you should do this in some capacity and it doesn't have to be like anything crazy. Just list all the teams in the league down the left side of an Excel sheet, maybe break it up by position. 

24:22
This is what I do Quarterback, skill position players offensive line, defensive line, secondary and I just make notes. I go through beat writer Twitter lists which are available to the public. You can literally just search, find beat writer and I just scour through news. This guy left the game. This guy and I just make all these notes into a sheet and I put details on them. So, offensive lineman gets hurt. Did he return to the game? What's the injury Like? Is it a concussion? Is it this? Were there any comments from the team or the coach after the game? And I just keep that and that right. 

25:02
There is probably enough for you to get out ahead of a lot of line moves, as dumb as it sounds, because early week NFL, if there are bad injury situations, the line is going to move against that team. It happens all the time. It's just one of the easiest ways to get like. It sounds so dumb, but you have to remember we did a Cir off episode with chris bennett, who is now basically running the circus sports book, but at the time he did it he was the head of risk and he was putting out their nfl openers and we talked to him specifically about how they put out those nfl openers and someone wants to go back and listen. 

25:42
We'll link that episode in the description below. It's one of my favorite episodes we ever did, because there's so many people out there that think that the book has like all this information and sharp sports book. How am I ever going to beat Pinnacle? They're a sharp sports book. They put out a number that has basically no thought process behind it, Other than the trader that puts it out says, yeah, you know what? 

26:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think this isn't like the right ballpark yeah, and there's no not that much risk for them because, you know, even if it gets steamed one way, all they've lost is a couple bucks in ev right. 

26:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So like literally a couple bucks, as in like no more than a few hundred dollars, right so now, if the trader's putting out a line and he has no idea that maybe three offensive linemen left the game for one team that week because he's just using, like a you know whatever, some sort of power rating model to put out a line, you're gonna have an advantage in that capacity. So, first and foremost, knowing injuries is very important what about the big ones though? 

26:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so this, we're recording this on monday this week. It's not gonna be out till thursday. But anthony richardson, for example, qb on the colts well then, you have to have some sort of like concussion. What do you? 

26:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
do there like well. So that this one's a tougher example, because the backup there is gardner minshu and the fact that there's even a line open for that game tells you that the sportsbook doesn't think that there's a downgrade at all. It's like interchangeable quarterbacks, right. A lot of times. You just won't get an opener for a lot of those games, right, if it's quarterback specific. And let's say, you know, although we saw the Joe Burrow line get blasted the other way this week, joe Burrow after Sunday's game said he tweaked his calf injury, straight up, came out and said it Line opened at six and a half that night. It's been. We're recording. On Monday the line is one and a half. It's been steamed down because Burrow might miss the game this week. Massive move, just knowing that one piece of information, finding one beat writer report that says Can't find that game. Ah, monday night. Exactly. Just finding one report from a Cincinnati beat writer that said Burrow after the game says he tweaked his calf injury was enough. And guess what? Burrow could play on Monday night or whatever. But you're holding a great number right now because the early week lines move a lot based off of injury reports. That's just plain and simple. So if you're not keeping up with that and you're going to bed early in the week, you're doing yourself a disservice because that's just one very, very simple way to get an advantage. 

28:11
So at the end of the one o'clock games, I start with reviewing the injuries from those games. The next thing I'm going to do is review the box scores from those games. I do this in two ways Offense and defense. Yes, I games. I do this in two ways offense and defense. Yes, I pull up a standard box score like standard CBS, espn, whatever you want to do. That just gives you the basic data you need to know as a football fan. Right like this is how many turnovers a team had time of possession, net passing, yards per play, stuff like that. I do that and I pull up a website that was created by Ben Baldwin. The short form is rb, rbsdmcom running backs, don't mattercom, that's how you can remember it easily. Rbs link in the description and you can get each individual box score from an advanced analytical perspective. So that's going to show you success rates, epa. 

29:09
If you're not familiar with those metrics, familiarize yourself with those metrics. But what I try to do is find what I would term to be misleading box scores. I'll give an example just so people can have context right. But if you look at week one of the NFL, the Tampa Bay Bucks went on the road to Minnesota and they beat the Vikings okay In that game. Went on the road to Minnesota and they beat the Vikings Okay In that game. The Vikings, from a success rate perspective EPA per play, yards per play were very dominant on the box score. They had a minus three turnover margin in that game. Two of the three turnovers were from buff snaps like center to quarterback exchange, where Kirk Cousins dropped the ball and the Bucs got that. So that, in my opinion, is the definition of a misleading box score where Tampa Bay goes wins as an underdog, but they do it with a lot of luck involved. 

30:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if those were interceptions, then you don't count, you wouldn't consider it as lucky. 

30:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would, it depends. So, like there's more to this, but like this is just a very easy way of the average fan can look at basic stats. Like honestly, even if you, even if you're not a, I can go to my dad, right, my dad watches some football, doesn't bet on football or anything I could say here, dad, here's the box score for these, this game. What do you think the final score was? And the average fan can come up with like which teams deserve to win or by how much, just by looking at a box score you can do the same. It's not that difficult. But find misleading box scores and that's one. And what happened in week two? 

30:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
the vikings got steamed into oblivion on week two, well, down from like seven and a half to six, yeah it's circa. 

30:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They close five and a half, even short of six. But so vikings catch a bunch of money on misleading and tampa bay gets faded at post against the chicago bears. That number went from two and a half down to one close that pinnacle. That's like the opposites happened. Right now, obviously, tampa bay does cover the spread whenever vikings didn't cover it. Well, they covered the opener. 

31:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They didn't cover the closer by absolute. That was rigged. 

31:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're not getting into the man of the library stuff. 

31:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Why did they not go for? 

31:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
two, I think it's just a brain fart. Honestly, I just think it's a brain fart. 

31:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No it doesn't happen, man. Why did McVay kick that field goal too? That that don't even okay. Things happen every week and I don't know, man, listen, I'm, I'm all for, like this doesn't matter. About the spreads yes, but like something's going on, man did you not? 

31:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
oh, it must be because the writer strike, johnny. Oh, the writer the writer strike. 

31:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, they didn't think it's, it's the backup writers writing these game ends now and they're making it too obvious, way too obvious, way too obvious. Yeah, listen, I think sometimes they kicked the field goal. 

32:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, don't even get me started With Knowing good and well, that was the last play of the game. Yeah, I don't know. 

32:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I honestly don't know what's he trying to do. 

32:09 - Zack Phillips (Other)
uh, dude, there's coaches covering spreads actively now, so someone literally say yeah so. 

32:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So someone would ask okay, what was mcveigh doing with that field goal attempt there? Instead of just throwing throwing the ball, try to get a touchdown doesn't want to. So the argument I would make doesn't want to get blown out, or rather, okay, would rather boost up his ats record for his career and for the year. 

32:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So the argument I would make is that you cannot get um, you can't win the game, no matter what so you lost so you've lost, so don't put your offense out on the field and potentially risk an injury on one play, to like a receiver who gets blown up down the field or whatever. In that case, just fucking snap the ball and kneel. Couldn't agree more right. 

32:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
However, I'm not saying I'm not saying it's rigged, definitely not rigged, it's not fixed yeah, but mcveigh there was very aware of the spread in the game and was like you know what we're gonna cover here for the boys, and he did, and he covered the opener and it's all like the, the fact that the game didn't even close seven and a half and it closed like seven, yeah, or even some people got a six and a half in that game, it. And then the same thing in atlanta and then the same thing in the eagles game. Like the, the openers won. We're talking about betting early in the week to get the best of the number. The openers covered in all three of those games and the closers literally lost or pushed. If you got atlanta minus one, right or but it even closed more than lost or pushed. If you got Atlanta minus one Right, but it even closed more than that, or pushed. If you got San Fran minus seven, right, crazy. 

33:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I mean, I don't think that there's anything to it. I completely understand why people think it, for one, but I saw the man of the library tweet last night which was we have to find this one because it was actually too good. It was like comparing a poster for the the sunday night football game to like jaws or something like that. Like the poster of jaw yeah, yeah, this is the one. I thought that the nfl might give jaws, the patriots, at least game one of the matchup with this clever script. Instead, they made jaws look like baby shark. Out there, come on nfl script writers. Jaws is a classic. Too many young writers that disrespect cinema gold if we click the pictures one by one, so we have this is that you in the bottom right? 

34:24
oh my god, it looks like mcdaniel so we have this jaws poster. Now go to the next image and this is what the NFL used for Sunday night football Game day With like a dolphin, and it's like wait a second, what is happening? And then apparently the main character in Jaws here, who's Brad Power's Twitter avatar, looks like Mike McDaniel. Somehow, I don't know, you look more like Mike McDaniel somehow I don't know. 

34:57
You look more like Mike McDaniel, that's for sure. But the stretches we're going to in terms of like the fixed game stuff now is a little bit too much, Forget about it. 

35:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm joking, I didn't say the like. I'm not saying the games are fixed. 

35:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll revert that Stuff is happening. 

35:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What I'm saying is they're trying to cover the spreads and the Eagles one revert that stuff is. What I'm saying is they're trying to cover the spreads and and the eagles one though that that one makes no sense. 

35:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Man like why would they not go for two? It just makes no sense. I'm gonna give you an explanation. There is none. I'm gonna give you the explanation you're gonna give me an explanation. 

35:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's not correct. 

35:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That I believe there's a 99 chance. That is correct. Go ahead human error. This is the, the explanation. 

35:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They forgot yes, they forgot that they were. They were going to go up six instead of seven with no, no time to get two scores. 

35:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Human error is the explanation. People make mistakes in pressure situations and I'm not saying there's like a ton of pressure there, but people just make mistakes. 

35:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There are only one explanation. Yes, what's because? At the time, how much were they up when they were about to kick the extra puck? Five, five, yeah, okay, so they're trying to go seven. Zero chance that the Vikings have enough for two scores yeah, unless they return a kickoff onside kick, and then even then it'd be very hard. Okay, maybe they're like the only thing that could have saved them was if they go for two and then Hurts throws a pick two. Yeah, makes it a three point game. Pick two, the old pick two, the pick two If they were, if. But if he was looking out for the pick two and not going for two there. No, that's absurd, insane, yeah, they literally went up. 

36:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm telling you, johnny, none of them, none of the explanations, explanations. Sorry, sorry, I don't even think. No, that wasn't even. That's not even correct. I'm misrepresenting the score because the vikings got the last touchdown. I was the need to just go up. I don't remember the exact situation it was. It was it was 14, it was to go 14 instead of 13, or whatever it was very no, no, no, no, it's yes, it should have, obviously just gone, for I'm telling you the. 

36:48
The explanation is human error. That's it. But what drives me crazy? Because I started. Explanation is that the six was the, the closing spread like I, I started in media right sports media myself I was. I had like some press passes to games where I was part of. I could ask a question that eagles plus it eagles minus six in a scrum afterwards. Why does somebody not ask mcveigh after the game why he kicked the field goal? Yeah, like of all the questions everybody wants to know why like hey sean? 

37:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you know he did one last week too, by the way, like a random weird field goal yeah the game was already over and he was winning, but he kicked the field goal as the time expired instead of going for the touchdown. No, I'm gonna pull this up. He did it in week one too maybe he's trying to get his kicker. 

37:32
Some extra reps, no but they, what do you mean? That's nothing like you did it look. So in versus seattle in week one the rams were up 27, 13. Well, you know what? And on the last drive of the game pulling this up right now, I want to see if it was, with time expiring or not, the last drive of the game it could have been. 

37:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm trying to remember the time was not expiring. 

37:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, three minutes and 16 seconds, all right. They started the drive. There was 11 seconds left on the clock after the field goal had been made. So and let me see when the when he kicked it, he kicked it on fourth and six, so it was fourth and six on the Seattle 26. They're up, the game's already over. There's 15 seconds left. And he kicked a field goal. You know why it's padding stats and or coverage. 

38:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Alternate explanation who's the Rams kicker? Brett Maher? Brett Maher, who shit his pants down the stretch last year? No, just in the playoffs. Shit his pants down the stretch last year no, just in the playoffs. Maybe he's trying to give his kicker some confidence early in the year. Either way, if you're part of that media scrum, know the point spread. Ask the guy. A question like this is the stuff that drives me crazy, because there's gonna be people out there that are like, oh not everything is centered around gambling or whatever it's like. Why are we talking about this? Why is anyone talking about this game the next day because of that field goal? So somebody ask him the damn question of why did you trot out your kicker to kick a meaningless field goal here? 

38:59 - Zack Phillips (Other)
just ask well, like tommy chang, coach of hawaii, lane kiffin, coach of ole miss and james franklin, coach of penn state, all three of them openly, actively try to cover point spreads I'm sure they're aware of spreads. 

39:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now, like they've talked about, there's coaches that have literally come out and said that people are aware of spreads. I get that mcveigh. I don't know. I don't know the reasoning, but I would have loved if someone asked him and he said guess what? You know, the point spread was seven and a half. We wanted to do our rams better. 

39:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like a solid like that would make him the most, even if he just said even if he just said something like hey, listen, I know we had lost the game, but it a lot of people were still watching because it mattered if he said something like that michael's type of situation where you don't actually reference the point spread but you're like, hey, you know what it matters to some people. 

39:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That play mattered to some people and we wanted to make sure that those people support us down the stretch. Boom, easy answer mcveigh's the same age as me. By the way, mcveigh looks like he's 10 years younger than me and uh but a lot of people. 

40:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A lot of people were uh, because if he would have just most, most of the time, if the game's over, you just go for the touchdown. Take the fourth down for the for the touch. Try to get the touchdown, yes an extra rep. 

40:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, whatever, we've gone off on a good tangent that would have been. 

40:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If he got the touchdown, then he would have covered the spread, yeah, For everyone, yes, and hit the over, yes. So a lot of implications on these plays at the end of these games, man To your buddy's point about the early betting lines for everyone out there. 

40:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Most Buddy's point about the early betting lines for everyone out there, most of the early numbers are going to move because of injuries and misleading box scores. Like 90% of the time. That's really all you have to do to get out of a head, and I don't want to say a hundred percent of the time, because there's obviously exceptions to the rule. The last thing I would say is that if you just pay attention to lines every week, it's going to you're you, you're gonna start to ingrain let me use this word carefully, but I'm gonna say trends in your head, and what I mean about this is market timing is important, right? So go back to last year's nfl season. I would always bet the eagles early if I wanted to bet the Eagles, because the Eagles were going to catch money on game day every day last year If I wanted to fade the Bengals. You know, you know the Bengals are going to get faded in market pretty much every week because someone out there that bets serious money on the games and is like a winning better doesn't like the Bengals or whatever. But you will notice these things. So that's like the final piece to the puzzle here is like how does the market typically react to specific teams? Do you notice that this team's total just gets bet over every week? If it gets bet over every week, just bet the over early and you're gonna end up with a good price and then you can decide what you wanna do at some point or another. Some can decide what you want to do at some point or another. Some of these totals move through key numbers. You can, you know, try to middle a total. You can do whatever. So it's injuries, misleading box scores, and then just honestly studying the market and understanding how these things happen. 

42:05
High totals, right, like there was years ago. We don't see totals in the upper fifties anymore, but there was like that. One year would have been, I guess, a COVID year, where there were no fans in attendance, where totals were just like through the roof. Every single total that was in like the high 50s or mid to high 50s. Guess what? On game day that total got bet down big time. So you know, knowing that you can get out ahead of of a line move I'm not saying you have to bet that on Monday or whatever, but if you pay attention to stuff, it starts to root itself in your mind and it just becomes like force of habit or natural thinking. And I understand if you're like your buddy's, like more of a rec better, he wants to have fun with it or whatever, that he's not going to be monitoring an odd screen every single day of the week or whatever. 

42:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, but he still looks at the history and stuff. 

42:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course, pretty easily. Or just check in once a day to see where the numbers are at. Why did this team get bet today? Ask yourself that a lot of times. Right, if it's a Thursday and you see a big line move in the game, why did this team get bet? Go look at the injury report for that day or try to understand why things are happening, and once you can understand that, it just becomes so much easier. Um, you know, for me, I obviously trust my numbers when I bet the nfl generally. But so much of what we do is timing the market, like trying to get good prices on games and like even add to this, like one more step to add to this even further, understand, like, who the market movers are, and you're not going to know every single market mover. There's betting nfl, betting groups that just don't put stuff out there. But guess what? I'm in the barry horse telegram chat. I'm in the joey tunes telegram. 

43:46
I'm in me, you know like I'm in these, and when they put something out, the market's going to move off of that information. When right angle sports something out, the market's going to move off of that information. When Right Angle Sports releases a play, the market's going to move off that information. Knowing who's releasing what and why something moved is extremely valuable and, honestly, sometimes you can even profile these people. Information is valuable. 

44:12
If Joey Toon's going to bet the Tampa Bay Bucks every week I just threw a random team out there and the market's gonna move off of that info then fuck, beat him to the Tampa Bay Bucks. Then you know if he bets them six weeks in a row. If Barry Horse is releasing, you know second half plays and they're always unders and he says a play is coming on this game and you know what game it is, fuck it, just bet the under before, like you know, or just load it up and get ready and stuff like that. So market timing is important, but someone consider that a scumbag move. I'm not saying to blow up the screen, okay. 

44:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough, but quietly toss your a hundred bucks on it. 

44:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So what's the first thing that I know? The first thing that I do when somebody says, like a release is coming, okay, this is, this is me, we're a little bit off topic here but like release is coming, first thing I'm going to do is like, okay, what is the what? What's the play? What's the play? I'm going to try to figure out what this play is, you know, and try to make some sort of probability on it. Then what am I? What am I going to do? I Try to make some sort of probability on it. Then what am I going to do? I'm going to load up my betting screens and accounts and have that play loaded and ready to go. If I think it's likely going to be that and if I agree with that, then the release comes, boom, you're ready to go. You fire on it or whatever. Right, like it's, I'm not getting good numbers is important. But ultimately, for the rec, the casual guy who says like, yeah, I'm done with betting Sunday NFL, like I just lose over and over. You want to beat lines, injury reports, misleading box scores and just what I would call a market study, understand which teams the market is generally high on or low on, and that in and of itself is good enough for you to get out ahead. And one more thing I'll add Use Betstamp. 

46:01
You can find bettors on Betstamp that win at sports. You can analyze, you can build your own analysis of every single better Okay, but you can definitely break it down by sport. You can dig their plays how early in the week do they bet? Where are they betting? You can find other bettors, a portfolio of people that you can reliably tail if you want to. It is a powerful tool. People wouldn't post publicly if they didn't want you to see this stuff. There's nothing you're doing wrong by somebody releases a play on FIU plus 13 and a half and you go and bet it yourself afterwards Like there's nothing wrong with that. But it's a powerful tool in being able to find other people as well, and some people better lean the weak. 

46:46
If you're not confident in yourself to make this, then find other people that can do it for you. Like, honestly, you know people are like oh, don't tout this, tout that, don't follow this, don't follow that. No, no, just do what works. Like, figure out what works for you to beat the line and then just continue doing that. Right. So that's another shameless plug but honestly a really good one. And lots of my friends do that. They just find other winning bettors on bet stamp and they're like, yeah, my friends do that, they just find other winning bettors on betstamp and they're like, yeah, when this set set alerts, this guy released a play, I'm gonna tail the play and I'm gonna find the best numbers. Sometimes they get even better numbers than the guy who released it because you have access to more sports books. 

47:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You have access to pinnacle in ontario 100 100 so you had you talked about what you do basically monday night, sorry, sunday night. Yeah, then I know you wanted to get into kind of like the rest of the week and like process for you specifically. So what's that look like after you've completed that injury report? And then you know, now your four o'clock games are done. You record the show with Clive Bigsby. Everyone tune in on Forward Progress YouTube channel. And then what? 

47:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So this is. People have to remember that this is not going to be the process for everyone. I basically am working like 80 hours a week during football season because I'm doing my own football betting, plus I'm running the hammer, which is essentially a full-time job in and of itself. So there's a lot for me that's going on over the course of the week. But Monday is a day for me to watch condensed game film as much as possible, because I watch Red Zone during the week. 

48:13
The only Sunday game that I watch in full is Sunday Night Football, but I'm actually not even watching it in full because I'm doing a show during the first half, so I don't see the entirety of the first half. So I watch condensed games Most of the time. I watch games where the box score was misleading and I try to go and actually see like, hmm, was it misleading or was there something else at play here? And that's just like what I like to do. It's. It's another element of me saying, hmm, maybe my, my number on this team doesn't match what I actually think that they are, but that's, that's just part of my process on Mondays. Monday night, I do the Hammer HQ watch-along. Every single week it's on the Hammer HQ YouTube channel. Honestly, we've had some great watch-alongs so far this year. Lots of people in it, good community involvement. I just watch the game and react in real time. 

49:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A lot of fun I joined a couple last year. 

49:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Fire out some prop bets before the game. Don't want to mush it so far. Some prop bets before the game. Don't want to mush it so far, so good. Three winning streams. We'll see what what tonight's brings is. We're recording on monday you had a first td the other day, did you not? Yeah, I got tj hawkinson first td, 20 to 1 20 to 1. 

49:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Eh yeah, it's a big first. 

49:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a good first td win first, first, first tit, by the way, that was such a good one. Jake ferg uh, I did not have jake ferg. I did not have Jake Ferg. 

49:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, jake Ferg. Yeah, my buddy with me did yesterday too. He's going nuts. He got the same number I did. What'd you get what number? I don't know. See if I can find what it was. 

49:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it was probably solid. Yeah, yeah, it was probably solid. 

49:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But Mondays is just want to be usually first touchdown, tight ends and backup running backs what I noticed um, like I, I've been high on dawson knox so far this year. 

49:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know they have like a new tight end as well don't kinkade. But, like early in the year, these teams are still very loyal to their veterans. Like they're not just letting the rookie come in and take all of dawson knox's snaps in the red, so he's getting snaps still. 

50:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh yeah, big time big time dawson knox still has. He hasn't. His numbers are not? They haven't gone way higher. Like dawson knox should be way more of a dog to be getting touchdowns oh yeah, I'm not, I'm not using his for example that's just a random example, but jake ferg, jake ferg jake ferg was. 

50:27
It is a good bet he's he he's a good bet, yeah, and hawkinson too, at 20 to 1. No, that was, that was. But that one see, you got to realize also, like the teams that are dogs versus the teams that are favorites plays into the number, it plays in more than people think yeah, has to way more, of course it has to like dallas being what was it? 

50:46
eight and a half point favorite in that game, yeah, versus, um, the six point favorite that we're just talking about the eagles right there. That's a big difference in percentage change for that team to even get the first touchdown 100, and nowadays the coin flips are 50 50. Everyone's typically deferring, yeah, so you never know who's going to start with the ball. It's pretty much going to be a deferral. So the team that's favored, the odds need they do. They do reflect it, but you need to factor. Then you can't be like, oh, jake ferg, 1800 last week or next this week is 3300, like it doesn't work like that, because you got to know when that how big of a favorite they were in the game. 

51:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Exactly yeah yeah, totally so. That's the monday watch alongs, but the rest of the week, honestly, is not. It's nothing crazy. Tuesday morning is when I finalize my numbers. I work with a larger group of people. We all contribute numbers and we basically decide what we want to target for bets as a group and then we try to figure out the timing of those bets. Do we need to act on this now or are we likely going to get opposed on this and we can just bet it at a better number later in the week? What's the injury reports look like for this game? Like, do we risk losing this number and whatever. So Tuesday is more of like assembling what we want to target and deciding when we want to bet that. And we will do some betting on Tuesdays as well. 

52:04
Wednesday, thursday, friday we're doing betting. But Wednesday, thursday, fridays, when you get your practices in the NFL and this is what's going to affect the lines on Wednesday, thursday, friday there's not a lot of people that I think are really betting out their true positions unless, like, they see something in the injury report that makes them need to bet at that point. Right, like you, like one team, and then the other team's injury report comes out and it's bad. You're like, okay, I got to bet this now type of situation. But that's most of your movement. Wednesday, thursday, friday, wednesday injury reports. You often see like some guy veterans take a rest day or whatever. Um, you know you don't put a ton of stock into them, but it gives you a little bit of information. Thursdays is more, friday's your final one. And then you get the friday afternoon final injury report. This player is questionable. This player is doubtful. This player is probable. 

52:53
I like to follow twitter doctors. There's a lot of doctor accounts out there too many, some would say. Now, some would say too many. But I find it actually really helpful in determining whether people are going to play or not and whether we need to bet. But that that's it. It's just keeping on top of the league and understanding like, when do I need to place this bet? So Wednesday, thursday, fridays mainly just like monitoring what's going on in the landscape and just deciding when to place bets and obviously, like we're not always placing bets through sports books, there's something called crossing. Some people might call it cross booking. We'll talk about that on a future episode because I think that's just a topic in and of itself, but it's just navigating the landscape of the nfl. 

53:35
I listen to as much content as possible during nfl season. I listen to adam churnoff simple handicap. I listen to you better, you bet. I listen to everything that I can, just to understand. Like what's out there some, some person might say like something relevant that you pick up on that it just I don't know, it's just part of my process and what I do. But we don't bet a lot on the weekends. We we rarely place anything on saturday unless it's a weird injury that comes out from a chef or tweet or something. And sundays I do pizza buffet in the mornings. The limits at pinnacle are 100k. Like do I really want to be firing on sunday markets only if I vehemently disagree with something, which was the case yesterday as or, you know, this past Sunday as an example, but it's very rare. 

54:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So that's it. 

54:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Take down pinnacle for a hundred? Uh, not anymore. You used to. Well, collectively, I listen, I'm not. I'm not to make myself seem like I'm a bigger, better than I am. I have pretty decent-sized bet on the NFL, but I work with a larger group and collectively we're trying to get X amount down. Most of the time we can get our bet filled earlier in the week. 

54:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, absolutely, especially on NFL. So one thing I want to note, by the way, great analysis by Pizzola here, like really understanding the sport to a level that is not just like, oh, I watched the games and the Giants look like trash this week. So picture this now, because a lot of people were asking me about college football and college basketball and stuff. Nfl think about how many friends you have that know every quarterback, all of them. Who doesn't know a starting QB in the NFL? If you are a fan of the sport, if you play fantasy, you know every player. How many people know NFL? Every player, offense and defense? Now, we're way lower. Not that many people know offensive line, defensive line, and maybe you know a couple studs on D. That's it. Go to college. How many people know every QB? Not nobody, no one knows every QB. How? 

55:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
many people know Powers and knish would know every qb. I would bet it in in what for every team they know the starting qb for this week powers would know that every division one qb. But there's so few to your point. 

55:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's so few people that that know. So that's qb. Okay. Now, who knows full rosters? Obviously nobody, because it's college and they're changing so much more than nfl anyway. So now think of this If you follow like we mentioned in a previous episode I think it was with John Fendler we mentioned following basically certain divisions, certain conferences, certain teams, and that was a bit of a different sport discussion, but let's say we were college football, which is more timely right now. Imagine following like 25 teams or 32 teams like the NFL, and then just knowing everything about those teams, you're going to actually be able to get a leg up on market for all of that stuff. 

56:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is my challenge. So people are always like, ah, you bet the NFL. Like why don't you bet college football? I can make a number on every college football game. I've done this in the past before. We could win a little bit of money doing that, but I'm, like, nowhere near the best people that are in that market. And again, sports betting is a competition, right, Like I'm competing against other people in this market who are just going to be way better than me at it. So what, what's the point of investing my time into that? And that's like the reason oh, you do NFL, why don't you do college football? I don't keep, I can't keep up with college football. I have so many things going on. Plus, hockey season is going to start for me at some point in like a month as well. I gotta add that to the mix. Like I could never do it. So, to your point, like, yeah, it's, it's. It's just like a massive, massive, massive grind in terms of keeping up with everything that's going on in that one sport agreed. 

57:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Incredible, that would be incredible how much work it would actually be to do every. 

57:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I respect these guys, man who can do that? It's nuts, but like it's, it's an ultimate element of respect. But for me it's a minus EV move to do college football. Yeah, too much, cause it's taken, it won't be my minus EV of the week, but it's a minus, all right. 

57:27 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Let's get into let's get into that. Start producer zach here. Um, yeah, I don't know if I have a minus ev, but I I gotta tell you guys this story. It's basically just like I've opened myself up to taking a couple l's here on the show and people know it now and have gotten used to that. So I'm gonna tell you guys this story, a little lighthearted one, to close off, one that we got a little in depth on. So here, here's the. Here it is thursday. I guess we go because our buddy gets engaged. Uh, shout out josh, congratulations, engaged. Now. He was crazy moment he was good. 

58:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He was on an episode of circles off before. Yes, when ontario legalized congrats, congrats, good, yes so he gets engaged. 

58:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Um, we go out for drinks with them after, whatever. But we had to go get this table before he him and his now fiance were coming to meet us. So sit down at the table. Waitress comes over to me. She's talking to me and my buddy were holding down the table and while we're talking to the waitress ordering our stuff, this girl comes up from behind and walks around like oh, like hey, how's it going? It's this girl that I know from high school. I haven't talked to since I went to high school. So I stand up and kind of like make small talk. She says she saw me there. 

58:36
This is where it goes bad. So she says to me she's like, oh, how have things been? I said, pretty good, what are you up to? And she's like, oh, you know, and does this hand motion, that kind of like goes around the room, like showing around the room, and says, oh, you know this and I have a day job. This is where I said one of the stupidest possible things ever. I say to her I didn't realize what was going on and I said, oh, I have a day job too. Which is like, why the fuck did I say that that was just dumb in general. So then she leaves, I sit down. I said my buddy, dude, I said the stupidest thing. I tell him he's like, oh, that is pretty fun, whatever. 

59:20
So she goes one way around the bar. There's like two ways to go to the washroom. She went one way around the bar. Okay, she had told me in this conversation too, by the way, she lives in the city in the area with her boyfriend, so I just assume she's there having drinks or dinner with her boyfriend. 

59:37
So I get up to go to take a go to the washroom. I said to my buddy I'm gonna go that way because I don't want to pass her going around that side. Walk around the other side, go to the washroom, come back walking out. You walk head on at the bar. She's the bartender. She's standing there staring at me and just like she looks at me I lock eyes back with her. I gave like the most awkward, like nod and wave, and then she just looked at me and was like little nod and then I just kept walking and was like holy fuck, that was one of the stupidest interactions, pretty embarrassing it's a tough look yeah, I, I don't really have like a negative so negative play is just is just having an awkward interaction with somebody. 

01:00:18
Yeah, like seeing someone that you haven't talked to in a while. It's obviously weighing on him too. 

01:00:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like he's been thinking about this for a while now. It's weighed on him Like he goes to sleep at night and he's sitting in bed and he's like why the fuck did I say that? 

01:00:29 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I had to tell you guys. I had to tell you guys, like that was a, I didn't know what the negative EV of that one was, but holy shit, it was uncomfortable. And I had to tell you guys, yes, yeah, so that was a tough one. 

01:00:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, all right, I got, I got one. So the positive EV move is always say hi on, like, get, get to know the, the condo concierge, the doorman. Positive EV as you can get I forgot. 

01:00:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You live in a condo now, but, like I, I lived down the street from where you currently live and my doorman his name was fabio and we were like on, like he was the best. You get on good terms with that guy, buy him a glass of wine for a starbucks line for christmas or something like that, like it's like tip the pre-tip. You know what I'm saying. 

01:01:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Pre-tipping seems such a good move, like there's just so much stuff that first off, they appreciate it, they're doing, they're doing jobs sitting down all day, like how annoying would it be if you go and a guy everyone's just like ignoring you like it's nice to say like hey, how are you, how's everything? A couple of the guys that are there is three main door guys one of the guys that had a great conversation with him the other day telling me about, like his family. He came over from like a foreign country. He's been working hard. He's been working this job for like he's working at a condo doorman. 

01:01:42
Different condo moved over to this one. This one's way better, this is in. This guy literally knows I had to go put something in a locker. The guy's like like you're in this unit and then he was like you're this locker and he just knew it off by hand from me walking in. He knows every guy in the whole condo's unit locker and I'm pretty sure he knew my parking space number as well. So this guy's just like he's in and just such a genuine nice guy like brought him a coffee the next day too. I'm just gonna, you know, you guys just get to know the guys. They're all great people, but they can also do so much shit for you. Like you don't want any hassles in the condo, this guy knows all all my stuff, haven't. Now I have a guest up, okay, perfect, go, go up buddy over. 

01:02:22
Okay, yeah, no problem. So where's this guy from again? He was originally from pakistan. He came over to canada, oh well this. 

01:02:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll tell you what's gonna happen. Now there's this there's going to be a pakistani, johnny from betstamp. This guy's doing identity theft. Man, he knows everything about you. 

01:02:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, he knows he knows everything about everyone in the in the condo no but great guy, that's my plus. Ev move of the week is like the concierge at the condo. That that's gotta those gotta be your boy. I like that. All right, all right. 

01:02:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, so for plus ev, for me, I'm not. I'm not a handyman. I didn't really like learn the skills of putting shit together when I was younger, aside from like playing with lego blocks or whatever right. Here's my advice to you people out there if you're not good at something like, especially if you're not handy, just pay someone else to do it for you. I cannot recommend this enough. I bought a new TV. The studs in my house are not like the proper distance apart. In my office they're supposed to be like 16 inches, I think, and these are like they're not. So I'm just struggling there Like stud. I'm knocking the wall like an idiot. I'm drilling holes Like I don't know what I'm doing. I'm there for like an hour and a half and I'm like I'm reading the instructions. I have no fucking clue. I'm just causing myself so much stress. I ordered like a task master, master or something like that guy came to the house grab it, whatever it was. 

01:03:44
It took him like half an hour to hang this tv. Like honestly cost me like 40 bucks, zero stress done, just do stuff like that. Like I'm the type of guy like yeah, yeah, I'll figure this out, or whatever, and it just causes me no, like just grief for no reason. So my plus ev move if you're not handy, just pay someone to do it for you or just apply that to life, like if it's going to cause you problems. Think about what your time is worth and the stress and pressure that you feel. I got my wife watching me try to hang this tv. I'm like no, like this ain't happening, you know what very fair, all right I'm. 

01:04:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm typically the guy who would agree with that, a lot like I'm always to each their own. 

01:04:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But like I, what's the point? I could have been there, all I could have figured it out. I could put this tv on my wall. It would take me eight hours, probably over the course. 

01:04:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, you got you got to some stuff. Like you know, it's nice to figure it out on your own. That's what I do. 

01:04:37
I will say, like it's nice to figure out and complete the task, but so many of those things I agree with, like you're looking at like, yes, everyone could technically learn how to like paint the wall yes but to go through the hassle of like painting your own wall versus paying someone else like you, also got to factor in that something like painting you're doing a shittier job, like that wall is not getting painted as good even if you try really hard it's not the experience. 

01:05:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm totally with you on that. Listen, there's some people who might find it rewarding and they want to go down that path. If that's you, then do that for me. I would just highly recommend stay away from the stress. Move on with life, get somebody knows what they're doing. 

01:05:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What about people who wash their? 

01:05:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
own car every week. 

01:05:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, my God man, the people over there, you wash your own car, zach. No, listen, not that I'm going for car wash all the time. Park underground, I don't need a car wash all the time, but so much nicer to just go through a nice car wash. Autoglide, yeah, but the thing is with those is like you can risk scratching your car. That's over, you have that you're risking. 

01:05:41 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's more than it's not. It's not as much about the car itself. It's, like some cars, the type of paint that's on them or whatever. It's just recommended to not go in certain kinds fair, fair, I mean don't, don't bring a ferrari in there, but like yeah, yeah, but, like you know, what I'm saying is like all right if, maybe, if you don't own the car or whatever it is, there's some that you're not supposed to go through, based on the type of paints. It's funny that all it is. 

01:06:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's funny that you brought up washing, because this is in my minus ev move of the week, which I've been waiting for a couple weeks just to see if it was like a one-off. But now that I'm a very perceptive person, once I notice something I'm going to like notice it forever. And there's like an epidemic going on in the world right now of these people who take a shit in a stall and then they like walk out and they turn on the tap water and they just like run their hand on, like very, very briefly, just to like show everyone around them that they're there and doing something, but they're doing nothing. Like what does it take to act like there? There's the fake. I've seen fake soap guys. 

01:06:36
Okay, so now that I'm really paying attention guys who come out, they turn on the water, they fake to pump soap into their hand. There's nothing there. They do this and then they rinse and they go. It's like dude, who are you fooling man? Like just what. It takes 30 seconds to wash your hands. Like you, just you do a quick rinse, boom, and then they go get a paper towel, everything, like the whole process. 

01:06:58
You're also spending the 30 seconds this is what I'm saying like, just if you're gonna. 

01:07:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't see that off. I'm a big hand. 

01:07:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now that I told you I'm a massive hand wash 100 like, now that I've told you this and and you listening or watching, you will see this happen more and more around you. It's actually an epidemic. Like people do not wash their hands, it's absurd to me, especially if you're in, like a public washroom, you take a dump or whatever. Like the least you, if you're gonna pretend to wash your hands just wash your hands. 

01:07:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I haven't seen this, but I'll keep an eye out. 

01:07:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have more respect for the guy who just comes out of that stall and walks right out of the room than I do. The guy who fake pumps soap into his hands does like a quick rinsing of the fingertips and is out of there. 

01:07:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, you know what it is too. It's also a full admittal that they should be washing their hands anyways, because they're saying to everyone else I know you think I should be washing my hands. I'm gonna pretend to wash my hands to satisfy you thinking I should be washing my hands, because I should probably be washing my hands anyways. 

01:07:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
More respect for just walking out there's there's two minus ev moves in here. One is not washing your hands after you take a dump, but number two is pretending to wash your hands which might even be more minus, ev, because you're not actually washing your hands and you're still taking the time to do so. You're still taking the time to do so. This has been a great episode. 

01:08:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've really enjoyed it, honestly just wait, I didn't give my minus ev. 

01:08:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think I gotta give one quick oh yeah, you give a plus, yeah, you give a plus. I thought the car wash okay. 

01:08:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
One minus ev is the guys or girls who have a bunch of stickers all over the back of their laptop. Okay now, listen, I know it might be some people in this room. I'm not trying to rip zach, but there's a lot of people here. Listen, I'm not saying you can't have a sticker. I have a sticker on my laptop is a bet stamp sticker. You're allowed a few stickers, but like how many stickers you're gonna put on your laptop? Like you're just putting any sticker on there, like random randomness, like you're literally zach's pulling on his laptop right now this. 

01:08:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This might be too many stickers, bro. I my home, the other laptop I have at home. 

01:09:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You have a spotify stick. Okay, I guess, because you do podcast, you got the bed stamp sticker. Okay, fair enough, it's got two bed stamp stickers on tip tipsy elves yeah, what is that lug? I was given to me. See, you don't even know what that is and you on your laptop and Zach's laptop, he's got a lot of room there for more stickers. I'm talking there's people full laptop covered in stickers. They don't even know you're supporting brands yes, quinnipiac Bobcats though. 

01:09:24 - Zack Phillips (Other)
National champions yeah, all right let me grade these stickers massively fan beat yale, yeah, my sisters went to quinnipiac. 

01:09:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's a rival game, okay. Okay, you have a vans sticker. You don't even wear vans, bro, I do, you wear vans, yeah, all right, you got a yeti cooler, uh, a yeti cup mug, travel mug all right, all right, I got some stickers to sell zach. I actually will say though I don't buy these. 

01:09:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't. I don't necessarily agree with you here, but there has been. I put a Bitcoin sticker on the back of one of my laptops once and I went through customs at the airport Massive negative emails Massive bro. Don't do that, don't do anything. If you're gonna put stickers on your laptop, think about bringing that laptop across the country borders and then ask yourself should I put? 

01:10:15
this sticker on this laptop. You're not putting like canna brands on there and stuff. No, I had a bitcoin and like a also like what an idiot. I bought a trezor wallet once. I put like a trezor sticker on. I'm like why would I be advertising that? I have like a trezor wallet and like bitcoin. Like just anyways, don't do stuff like that. That that's, that's a big mistake. If you want to express yourself, I don't have a problem with expressing yourself, although I mean that seems like a lot of stickers on. 

01:10:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A given to me. No, and I wasn't even targeting. This was not targeted at Zach. This target was a bunch. 

01:10:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You looked right in his eyes when you said it. 

01:10:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You looked right at me. To be honest, can I say this if we, if I was gonna laser, that you would have cut him right in the no no, hear me out, I have a note. 

01:10:54
I have a notes the the regular notes, where I put all my positive and negative evs. When I see them throughout the week, I just write them down for the show. I've got a bunch banked because obviously, you know, sometimes you come to the show like, all right, what am I doing? All right, I'll give out these two today. This one actually was from I saw someone in starbucks at the base of this building, like this week, this upcoming week, sometime last week, that had just like one of those big laptops not not a mac like one of those massive ones full covered with stickers and just like all over the place, and then you could tell was putting stickers on the stickers already. And then at that point I'm like, all right, this is negative v, she's repping brands that she doesn't even know, like there's no way she's supporting all these things. And then, as I was giving out here, I remembered, ah, fuck, zach's got a lot of sticks on his laptop. 

01:11:41
Really did well you I can't see his laptop from this position. By the way, he was in his backpack, so like I didn't just give it out like that. Anyways, this has been. 

01:11:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
her community is gonna come after us. Now, that's fine. Fine, that's fine, go, come after me. What are you going to? 

01:11:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
do Put another sticker. I hate circles off, put it on buddy. 

01:11:59 - Zack Phillips (Other)
There you go, you know how, like Rico has his army, the riders or whatever. I'm going to start having an army behind me and they're going to start coming after you. You're going to get put on blast. 

01:12:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm sorry, bro, rico's Riders. No, it's okay, zach's. 

01:12:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Jabronis. Zach you gave me a beatdown in fantasy this week. 

01:12:16 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Philly's Flyers. Philly's Flyers. 

01:12:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Zach gave me a beatdown in fantasy this week. Oh no, yeah, too many players. Anyways, this has been episode 120 of the Circles Off Sports Betting Podcast. We'll see you all next you.