00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off, we're joined by a guest. He used to be a trader for a recreational sports book and now he is a full-time bettor. He's going to take us inside the trading room. He once called me a moron as well. I'll ask him about that and a lot more. This week's Circles Off starts now. Come on, let's go. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 121. Right here, part of the Hammer Betting Network, I am Rob Pizzola joined by Johnny from Betstamp. 

00:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We got an amazing guest for this week. Should be a great episode, especially if you're a fan and found out about this show from the Twitterverse. Definitely going to be an interesting one. Number 21 here For me, it's easy. So we got Coach Prime Coach Prime Deion Sanders. You got to let that in. He's a hot topic right now. Who? 

00:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
else you got for 21? Okay, so, because I had him in fantasy football for so much of my youth LaDainian Tomlinson, okay LT. 

00:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Also Ezekiel Elliott. Yeah, not good anymore, but still a stud. Back in the day I'm going to look up a Leafs player. 

00:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
James Van Rensdijk Borey. 

01:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Salming worked for 21. Okay, I think this guy was 21, and Zach's going to go nuts if he knows this guy, but let me just confirm his number Yup, 21. This was in the heart of the Leafs dog days, when we were absolute trash. John Poole, john Poole. 

01:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Johnny Poole. I saw John Poole score a goal. 

01:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You remember? 

01:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that In real life I was at a Leaf, but Peter Forsberg was a 21 and why he was one of my favorite players ever. Was it because of the Forsberg? No well, that was great, but it wasn't because of that. When I was in university, the NHL was on strike. There was a. There was a strike year. Okay, this is when, when the penguins ended up winning the draft lottery and they got five or six. 

01:51
So five I would be in the computer lab doing computer science and I was betting already. Back then I was betting the swedish illiterarian league and a lot of the NHL players went back to their home countries to play and I bet on Peter Forsberg's team, moto, all the time and they always came through and, listen, I definitely did not have an edge right. Like, thinking back, like it's so dumb. I'm like, yeah, I'm going to bet Moto, they have Forsberg or whatever. I was like, oh, I can remember the teams, like for Wanda, whatever, like all the Swedish teams, but I won so much money betting on moto and Peter. What was the league called? 

02:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The Swedish, swedish illiterate Is that short for Swedish? It's? I'm just known as a. 

02:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Swedish elite league. Yeah, it's the illiterate and it's the elite league. Is that a short form? Is elite short Elite is short. 

02:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I guess I there's no way or maybe, like eletzerian, is just the way to say elite in swedish. You know what? Speaking of elite, all right, no you didn't get it for the queue up. 

02:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So here's the thing. There's I. I queued that up, bro. It was actually a great queue up. Here's the thing. I had a couple other 21s in my head that are absolutely pure elite. So I thought you were teeing me up. Tim Duncan was 21. Timmy Duncan, by the way, when I was growing up playing basketball more about me, by the way, let's make this entire show about me. Tim Duncan, I tried to hit jumpers like he did for so long. Backboard, the backboard monster Like that guy, just the little kiss off the glass or whatever. But when you're doing that On, like your high school basketball gym, the backboards suck and they just hit the backboard so hard. It's impossible. Tim Duncan, roger Clemens, sammy Sosa All 21s. They grew up Different era. They were elite, but also elite. 

03:43
Pinnacle Sportsbook I appreciate you teeing me up on that. I was trying to cue him up. They're the world's sharpest sportsbook available to bettors in Ontario. Over the course of this next episode, you are going to find out why Pinnacle is an extremely valuable sportsbook to you. Listen to the entire thing, but I promise at the end of the day there's no BS with Pinnacle. Good limits they treat everyone like the same type of better. This is why they've been in business for 25 years. Bet smart, bet Pinnacle. If you're going to sign up in Ontario, use code HAMMER to do so, as it does help support us here. On Circles Off, you must be 19 plus. 

04:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And, as always, please play responsiblyibly, sorry. One other thing on pinnacle, by the way. A lot of comments and stuff coming through about people having trouble like directly signing up and getting the funds in wanted to also offer. If you are having trouble with that, reach out to us directly and we'll see if we can help you with the troubleshooting or send anything direct. Didn't want to get everybody playing on pinnacle. 

04:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We, we, we value the feedback and there's people who've been reached out to us. Can we get the limits increased on deposit at pinnacle? Well, they just have done that as well. So a lot of the feedback we get we relate directly to their team. They work on it. So 100 reach out to us. Circles off at the hammerbet. We read those. You can reach us on Twitter as well, via DMs. It's Circles Off HQ and we will get to those. We value the feedback. Now to our guest. We're now joined by our guest this week here on Circles Off. He goes by Shipper. You can follow him on Twitter at ShipTheJustice. He's a former sportsbook trader, now turned full-time better. He also once called me a moron, which I'm gonna ask him about a little bit later on. 

05:32 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Shipper, thanks for joining us here on circles off. What's up, fellas? It's nice to see you in person. Well, I suppose over a video link. I do have one thing I needed to share, which is in an honor number 21. It's a Dion Sanders prime-time T-shirt which is big. Here in colorado. It's been the big news over the last, uh, last month or so yeah, I was a true fan of the show yes, I was a huge deon fan growing up because I was a dallas cowboys fan. 

05:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, I probably still have some old deon sanders swag as well. That's a good shirt too. That is a sick shirt. Coach, prime man, coach, prime Coach, prime, all right. 

06:05 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
That's it. I'm heading out for the USC game this weekend, which should be fun. It would have been. I think Boulder Colorado would have blown up if they had beaten Oregon last week. This was Williams versus Shador, undefeated. But alas, it should be still fun anyway. 

06:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know if it's going to be fun, if you're a Coloradoado fan, but we'll see. It'll be fun to drink and go to the game, I'm sure. All right. So, shipper, uh, we wanted to basically get into your whole backstory. We know you're not originally from the united states, came on over. I want to just ask you, like you know what, what's your story, what you're all about? 

06:36 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
uh, I have a background in the in the uh bookmaking industry from uh sort of once I finished college I I started at the New Zealand TAB, which is kind of like a monopoly book in New Zealand, similar to Proline from what you guys have in Canada, although just a little bit more, probably a little bit more free and modern. From when it first went up you could bet singles. There weren't any rules like that. I started out my bookmaking career there, which was really fun. The tech was really really bad. We had to buy, hand and put all live prices on the site. So for tennis, for example, if someone had a winner you would literally hand, type in 1.36 or move from, say, say, minus 250 to minus 275 on one side and then adjust the other side. Uh, and you would. You would do that for the set prices as well, uh, which was, which was a really good grounding. I mean, you got to learn a bunch about uh, how the, how other books, models worked and other books and play modeling worked, uh. 

07:42
And then after that I kind of got um, I moved over to australia and started working for points bet in australia, uh, and then kind of pretty quickly, maybe two months in or so, uh, they were really expanding in new jersey, uh, and without a ton of experienced traders over there, they uh sent me over to try and run the show a little bit at age 25, which was a fun experience, being out in kind of the wild west of or wild east, I suppose, of it being in New Jersey, but the wild west of sports betting when it was first coming online in America. So that was a fun challenge. Couldn't get a visa right away, so I originally went back to Australia for a couple of years and then over and have been in Colorado from about mid 2021. And then finished up with PointsBet right at the start of this year. Been full-time betting since then. 

08:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So here on Circles Off we've had bookmakers on in the past, but they tend to gear towards the sharp bookmaking industry. Whether that was Matthew Trenhale from Pinnacle or Chris Bennett from Circa, I think this is actually the first time that we've had someone who skews more towards the recreational bookmaking side of things. There's obviously gonna be some listeners out there who are very familiar with how bookmaking works, how trading works in specific. But just for those that don't, that are watching this, what are the main differences between operating a trading team for a sharp sports book versus operating for a recreational sports book? 

09:17 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Well, I think firstly you need to describe the environment that the two operate in and especially the tax environments the two operate in. So while this often is a moral judgment and a business judgment because of the ease of bookmaking, it is also sometimes a necessary one within the tax environments that are applied. The Softish Sportsbook their goal is to take purely soft action. They want to take wages from players who are going to lose in the long run, and this goes for all kind of softer books in the industry. Once they get whiff of you being a winning better, then they're trying to take that out of their book so that they are not losing money to those people in the ecosystem and trying to maximize their profits just by having soft clients. 

10:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
In your experience working with the softer recreational sportsbook model, are the traders typically incentivized based off of like hold percentage, how much the company is earning? I'm just curious, and if you can speak to that, typically speaking, you know I've talked to bookmakers in the past where, just like salary only type of thing, is there an extra incentivization to hold as much as possible? Basically? 

10:42 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
No, no, not necessarily. I think people are just trying to do what is best for the company and what and what's kind of laid out by the directives, I suppose. Um, once you get up to the higher levels of trading, then then, uh, often the trading managers may, may, potentially have bonuses around whole percentage, but it's more around, um, the entire amount, entirety, amount of money that they can hold. Um, you know, you often see the argument out there that if they just held a little less, they could take away more of a of a slice of the pie and, the way, make way more money. If that was. You know, these, these are billion dollar companies. They, they are not doing things in a nonprofit, profit maximizing sense. They are certainly making optimal decisions in terms of trying to operate within their own environments and make the most amount of money possible so you just limited guys out of the goodness of your own heart not, even, not even a commission, I don't just kidding it's, no, it's, it's. 

11:35
It's a good point. Um the like morality of doing it. I don't think you would find anyone who works within the uh regulated industry, including the including the ce CEOs of these places, really, that they truly believe that this is how the world should work. But obviously the goal is to maximize the profits for your shareholders, right? That's the goal of any business, and so, working within those constraints, it's just the optimal way to go about things. 

12:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I got a couple of follow-ups here. Number one we're going going to start late. You mentioned moving the odds and it was decimal odds, you know, like 1.83. How was that shift over? Like, do you, does your mind still operate in decimal odds or are you for american, american odds now? 

12:20 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I'm fine, fine, speaking both languages. I can speak some, uh, I can speak english, uh, the english, the queen's english too, and do our four to seven and and five to eleven and everything like that you can do the fractional as well. 

12:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's a skill. See a man who could speak three languages. Uh, what do you think's the best? 

12:35 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
odd set like american decimal oh yes, decimal by far, it's not even close you know you got. I mean the canadian you can. You Canadians grew up with mostly decimal, is that right? 

12:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So anyone who bet on just Proline did decimal. But if you had any other books it was American. So I mean, I personally grew up American odds only. I understand decimal, but it's not good to compare prices. It's only good for the stuff that you're going to lose on, for example, parlays. 

13:07 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Great for the books. You're going to lose on, for example, parlays. Great for the books. It's so easy, it's just like a simple multiplication. Um, yeah, I, I do think that that's right, and that's why some people believe that americans may potentially care more about price, because the move from, say, minus 155 to minus 160 is, you know, it's a two cent decimal move, but it's a five cent move in american odd sense. So so that that is kind of like a theory as to why, and and also then the straddle as well, you know, like a 20 cent straddle between minus 150 and and plus 130, uh is you wouldn't see that in, uh, in decimal odds, because it's taking less juice than what a minus 110 to a minus 110 is of course, of course, okay. 

13:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So that that's the first question. Second, more just a statement for us here. We have had someone else on the podcast who was a trader at a rec book. Now I'm not going to say who it was, but for everyone listening, go back through all the episodes. There's someone that is. It might have not been talked about publicly in the episode, but it's there. I'll just leave that tidbit out. I'm a hundred percent sure we have one. Um, so Zach and Rob don't even know who it is. That's incredible, don't, don't say it. Everybody looked through the episode comment and, uh, you know, I don't even know if we'll be able to confirm it, but comment, comment below. 

14:17
So, shipper, you hear oftentimes you just mentioned it yourself. You say a lot of times people think, well, if you could just hold a little less and accept, accept sharp action, you can make way more money. And there's a lot of people in the space who agree with this. Whatever you want to call it, a theory, potentially right. 

14:33
So to back it up for the listeners, what a lot of people have referred to this analogy as like spanky, for example, is you know you have a leaky bucket, but instead of actually patching up that hole. You just keep filtering out the water and like throwing it up, throwing it out, throwing it out, so that you eventually throw out all the people and still the leak is not actually fixed. Right, most people in the regulated space right now are not operating the sharp model like the sponsor of the show, friend of the show, pinnacle sportsbook, who actually will not kick anybody out. Do you actually think, shipper, that kicking somebody out is the most profitable term for the sportsbook? Do you think they're doing it suboptimally right now? What are your thoughts on that, given you're a person who actually ran that? 

15:15 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yeah, I think it is the most optimal, almost undeniably, and the key there is that you get the information for free most of the time by looking at the screen. Yeah, you don't get the perfect information. You don't have who placed the wager. Let's just say that somebody sharp places a wager at Circa Sports. They move the price, they hit the screen, they move the price right. You see that that price has moved and you can make the assumption, typically, that Circa has made a correct move. You can follow that and you don't have to get hit, you don't need to pay for that information. 

15:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So do you think that if you were to actually limit, you would be able to have a sharper line, accept bigger bets and then potentially beat people who are quote unquote sharp, so for example, people who might be wanting to bet 50 K on MLB or an NHL side? Do you think that having the ability to book that and then having the best profiling not necessarily for kicking people out, but just for actually profiling and having the sharpest number, can you then earn off the not only the rec bettors but the pseudo sharp bettors as well? 

16:19 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I just don't think that that pseudo sharp uh that in that area is anywhere near as big as what people like Captain Jack and some others like to talk about. I just don't believe that. There are people, for example, that might beat softer markets and then might donk it off into the sort of more major markets. But you can just configure your limits that way so that they can't really wager that much on the prop markets and then they can bet a whole bunch on the, on the really, on the stuff that you're you're pretty confident about. 

16:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I want to follow up on that the size of the semi-sharp market there, cause I tend to agree with you in terms of I think people overvalue like how much of the pie that is right now. 

16:58
But I think personally I'm seeing like a shift, a dynamic shift, where I think that that section of the pie is becoming larger and larger and larger and I personally think that it's going to continue to grow as betters become a little bit more educated over the next couple of years. Curious whether or not you actually believe that as well, because I know there's people that are on like completely opposite ends of this spectrum. There's guys that think that, well, the sports betting has been this way forever. This is going to continue to be this way forever. I'm of the opinion that I think a lot of people have entered this space in recent years, sadly lost their shirt in some capacity, thinking that I know sports, I can bet on sports, and that there's, like this, going to be this yearning for education in the spaces as time goes on, and I just am interested in your take on that I mostly disagree. 

17:51 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I'm interested to, I suppose, uh, to turn the question back on you guys, and I think about what sort of bettors do you think that they'll end up being? You've, you've kind of. You guys have kind of talked about how most of the bettors that are looking to come into the space now as guys who are winning and like winning in like a reasonable capacity, are top down bidders. Do you think these guys will largely be, uh, looking to to go chase steam, or do you think, um, there's going to be like a new wave of originators that'll come through and and also, what markets do you think they're going to be bidding into that? 

18:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a good question. So we might disagree and I'll just give my opinion on this. So I think that the market has overcorrected towards the top-down approach because it's easier, right, and I'm not saying like I don't want to dismiss one over the other, but I could teach my wife basically like top-down in an hour and she could probably have some success doing that. And that's not to diminish what people do, because there's still a skill and like there's going to be better top down, betters than others. But the bottom up is like a lot of work, essentially Like modeling is work and it's upkeep. 

18:56
So I think we've gone too far. My experience at Bet Bash was a lot of people coming up to me saying like I've done top down, I've done really well, but now I'm just stuck Like I've lost my outs, and I think eventually a lot of people are going to get to that spot where it's like, okay, what do I do now? And we're gonna see like a shift back the other way and then you know it's just like a perpetual cycle of back and forth. 

19:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And that's what I personally think is going to happen over the next decade. But you know, do you agree with that, or so I think okay, I was actually just looking at something on this right now because it's this is. I was doing work on this literally yesterday. Okay, I think the top down betting thing and the whole like give me the pick industry is actually the same and what I mean by that. It's a weird take here, but a lot of people want to bet sports because they just they don't want to necessarily have to actually originate the game, because then they feel like absolute shit when they lose. So people basically want to have something where it's like oh, this is a good pick. That way If it loses they can say well, it's, it was what it was, I bet, a good pick, I'm good in the long run, and they can continually churn and churn and not necessarily I would say it's way more fun that way. 

20:10
You know, definitely don't want to get into like problem gaming things where people go too far, but for the average person who's like just betting recreationally, you can hide behind that thing and still like enjoy what you're doing. A bad day doesn't seem as bad when you picked off good numbers, a bad day also doesn't seem as bad when you bought picks from a tote who came in and sold you those picks and you you have in your mind like, okay, this guy wins long-term, so I'm good. It's the same way. The mentality actually shifts for those betters is the same in the top down approach versus the buying picks from somebody else approach. One of them is probably going to win you money. Top down one's probably going to lose you money. 

20:47
Buying picks, however, you, you both think that they're going to win you money and because of that, you can keep going and going and going on that strategy and have fun, whereas when you're making the picks yourself, if you have a losing day, you start to question everything. I'm like am I personally? Shit, do I even win at sports betting? I made a bad bet. I'm not thinking straight. I need to do this. I need to wake up an extra four hours earlier and do more capping tomorrow like these. This is where I know it's a long-winded rant here, but to simplify your answer, I don't think the top-down approach is going anywhere because I just think it's such an easy way for people to bet hide behind any results they have, whether good or bad, and in general have fun with it. So why would you stop doing it like that? 

21:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll let shipper jump in in a second here. The only counter I have to that is I think that that takes the ego of the sports fan out of the equation, like my friends don't want to do top down, because they want to believe that they can handicap the games themselves. 

21:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's that's literally okay, a hundred percent. You're right. Yeah, that's a separate side of people who don't even bother buying picks you don't even do this and they're just willing to dunk money and probably lose on their own opinion and still be happy to lose, thinking they're going to win. And those are the people who the books that we're discussing here want to book and want to have. The people who are in the other end, which is significantly growing versus the right side of my equation so the right side is the people who just want to lose money and don't care about it and are ego driven Yep, that part, I think, is shrinking now. 

22:15
And I think the growing part is the people who are betting sports, thinking, yeah, I'm still trying to win, even though they might not win long term, but they're actually at some point putting in some sort of effort. And those are the people who, in the long run, if they're using top down or buying picks or whatever and have that mentality like they don't, they're either going to be not profitable for the book or very small profit. Shipper, what do you think? 

22:40 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yeah, I'm somewhat similar to Rob in the sense that I don't. I think it's really hard for my brain to grasp that it would be more fun to bet top down than bottom up. Like, do you know what's really fun? Betting your opinion and then being like I'm the man, I was more right than the books? Like that is so sick. You're also right, though, johnny, that you do. 

23:02
When you, when you know you got it in good and it's like not your own play, you can rationalize the losses a lot easier. You just say, well, I was going to, I won. Theoretically it's fine, it doesn't matter at all. Whereas, like, if you beat, if you just like win as an I mean sorry, if you lose as an originator, you just kind of you don't really know whether you got it in good or not. Like, especially if you're playing in a market where, um, you're creating your own clv, or or you're not, or there's no, like there's no um way to beat the clothes or anything like that, uh, then you know you really don't know whether you got it in good and you kind of have to just rely on your bank account, which is which is like kind of more difficult and there's certainly more swings, uh, in that side. 

23:43
Um, to me, I think the only way that books are going to want these like semi-sharp clients is if you can grow that right side, the person that does believe that they can win, betting their own opinion because, like you're just not going to beat top down, like you're not going to beat top down betters, but, um, taking the best price and betting steam all the time, I just like a soft book. It just isn't going to be able to do it, because if you, if the price was right, these guys wouldn't place the bet I think there's also like the combo better as well, right which that has the general idea of how to win. 

24:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So here's the example like and I'll use my inner group of friends, right, my friends watch brad powers release show monday mornings on hit the books part of the hammer, and they'd watch it because they know that or they feel as they're going to get a valuable bet from brad powers on college football, or two bets, three bets, four bets, depending on the day, and they're going to go out and bet that all the games that he gives out, and while they're logged into their accounts, they're also going to bet like five of their own opinions for the week as well. So it's like they're they're cognizant enough to know that this guy is a good better. He's beating the close for the most part. He has a long-term track history of success. I want to tail this guy, but I still want to be able to bet my own stuff as well, and I actually think that that's like becoming more and more dominant in the space if that makes. 

25:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
From what I'm seeing personally, from what I'm seeing like I don't even think that there's that many of those people amongst the younger generation. I do see a lot of that amongst like my, our, our ages, our three ages. In the room right here I see a lot of what rob's saying when we start going into the whole, like TikTok betting, now it's either people who are making the content, saying this shit slaps, this is going to win, fire me up. Taylor Swift parlay 22 yards. Travis Kelsey there's that, there's that better, or there's the better. Who's like I'm tailing this guy to tail his picks? I haven't necessarily seen the originator guy who's just like the this pick slaps guy going for the other side and I haven't necessarily seen them overlap. But that's more amongst the younger generation. Now, our age, I have seen that way more. 

25:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, obviously what I consume is going to influence my perspective on things. Right, I mean, I'm in my mid thirties. My social media of choice is Twitter. I see things differently than someone who's 21 years old who spends their time on TikTok and Instagram and stuff like that, which is why I'm very interested in Shipper's perspective here, because no one is better like suited to make that judgment on how the industry is evolving than someone who sees that action coming in regularly. Right, and I don't know like, have you seen, have you noticed significant changes, even over the course of a couple years of regulated sports betting in the us, or does the behavior seem like it's? It's just the same as it was a few years ago? 

26:39 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
oh yeah, absolutely, absolutely, it's changed. First I want to address, like the, the next bit of the guy who wins on some picks and doesn't win on other picks, if they, if those picks are all kind of placed at a similar time. So if we're using the Brad Powers example, let's say it's Monday morning or whatever, and they're placing both you know, the recreate, the wages based on their own opinion that aren't going to win, and then the Brad Powers picks that are going to beat the close and win opinion that aren't going to win, and then the brad powers picks that are going to beat the closing win. It's just like that, better a is a is very rare, but b? Um, it's really easy to tell whether the, the package of that person's wages, are good or bad for the book. Right, like you, just like you just run a report. If the um, if the implied uh probability of them winning or losing by the closing price is, you know, if it's like, if it's going to say that they're going to be a winner, you don't have them. If their totality, even with the some winning bets and some losing bets, is going to be a loser, then you keep them. It's like really easy to do the more way. 

27:35
More common is like you might get somebody who's put like moving for somebody and then also bet themselves. So they might bet some early week stuff, uh say on a tuesday or whatever, and they are moving, moving for them and then they also bet their stuff. They're like um, their recreational segment, parlay or whatever at kickoff. Now you now the key is, can you keep that better around um by taking a bet on the um on the earlier wager, but certainly not trying to take a bet so that the mix is a negative one for you. You know you want to take 80 of it to be a recreational wager and then 20 of it to be um, to be sharp stuff. That's absolutely fine, like there's no problem with that, because it all just comes down to the calculation at the end, like is this person going to be profitable for the book or not? 

28:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so. So let's get into that now, because I know we were going to get into. This is great information for anyone listening right now. You're not going to find this on other podcasts. Circles Off number one podcast rate and review five stars Smash. Absolutely obliterate that like button. 

28:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We didn't get enough likes last episode because we didn't actually say it, but actually right now, take two seconds, seconds, smash the like. It elevates our content on youtube. Other people can find it and I think this is going to be very valuable information for people. 

28:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so shipper? This is the question. Then you mentioned running reports. You've seen the back end. You've managed the back end hell. You've limited multiple players, probably including myself, rob zach, everyone here. If you've been limited, it might have been at the hands of the shipper, all right, and you ship in the justice. But what goes in to limiting a player? What are the main factors that the book looks like? You mentioned running a report. How does it work? 

29:11 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
let's go well, one of the things I tried to um it's it's hard to hard to say too much here. I tried to build um my brain to be the report basically Okay, what do I see of the people that are profitable bettors and how can I catch these bettors? The easiest one is if you beat the close. That's the simplest thing, that is just so black and white. Say, you bet something minus two and a half, that closes minus three and a half. You have the implied probability of what the two and a half is at kickoff and then you multiply that by the stake and that just gives you an EV on that person's bet. You aggregate all of those wages together and then it's just going to spit out a number and like and then a percentage of sorry, an ROI, an expected ROI, on all that person's wages. 

30:05
The thing is is that bet mix and bet patterns. It converges to their long run average for most people so quickly so you can catch somebody in literally like one bet some of the time. Like a really good example. Actually, the first funnel that you'll hit is a promotional funnel. So let's say that you have a book where it's a 5K risk-free wager. 

30:34
Hopefully Ohio doesn't catch me and fine me for saying, risk-free or riskless, that the optimal way to use that wager is to bet it on an underdog right, and a lot of people have spoken about this and it's correct. It's what the educators should say. If you place a wager on a risk-free bet and it's say, on a plus 500 shot, you need to be able to lose that risk-free wager most of the time to get the benefit of it. So if you just see that you have a $5,000 risk-free bet, the first person comes in. They get a $5,000 wager plus 500. What proportion of people who do that go on to be profitable bettors for you? Very few, very, very few. And it just sticks out like a sore thumb and so that person is straight away got a monitor on them. 

31:26
So people just optimally using the bonuses 100, yeah, and then if that loses, then they use their free bet, say, say so. The second one would be then they use their free bet on a long shot again, bang, perfect. What proportion of them nailing it twice in a row? What proportion of those become, go on to become long-term losers? Almost zero, like practically zero. So trying like that you, that's just a way to get yourself binned straight away, uh, and and and, making it through that first promotional funnel, then you start getting to future funnels after that it's funny that you mentioned the real knowledge here. 

32:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, dropping the real knowledge on circle because there's an EV calc that can happen on both sides. Right, there's an EV calc that happens on the book side where it's like, okay, what's the EV on this person using their free bet? This way and from a consumer perspective, you can calculate the same thing. Right, it's like, well, what if I actually just donk away this free bet in like the least optimal way possible? Yes, I'm losing EV on that actual free bet, but the likelihood that this account is gonna last X amount of time you can come up with like a rough EV of making a bad free bet. 

32:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, what if somebody doesn't accept the bonus? 

32:40 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yeah, that's a really interesting one. You see it at both tails, like you see midwit meme, kind of the midwits in the middle. They're the people who maximize the bonus. It's interesting If I had to just pull numbers out of the top of my head. If it's like this person is going to be limited in the future, probably 90% of them use the bonus optimally. Probably 90% of them use the bonus optimally. The next, like 8% or 9% use the bonus almost optimally. So they bet $4,999 or like $5,500, so that they don't exactly fill promotional terms but they still like maximize that or like go close to maximizing their EV by doing it. And then like 1% or 2% of people just like don't use the free bet in an optimal way what about if they just don't take the free bet? 

33:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
they opt out of the book? 

33:32 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
then is that suspicious or no? Well, that's the thing, like that's where it's midwifed. They either suck or they are amazing, like are really a really good, better and so. So that can be a way you know, especially if you can pair that with looking stupid in the next few bets. 

33:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now that's when you're really starting to get somewhere it's funny, um, that you mentioned that and this is actually all very fascinating in terms of uh and, by the way, this is like one opinion. I should just point that out there. Obviously, shipper has expertise in this space. Doesn't mean every sports book is going to do things. This is just through his experience, what he's speaking to right now. 

34:09
But you mentioned right away closing line value right In terms of the easy way to spot a winning better versus a losing better, and sometimes you can do it within a few bets. What about if a player is getting good closing line value on parlays? So, basically, taking all these individual bets and rather than playing them as straights which would make it very obvious that all these are beating the line throwing them into like five and six game parlays, is that a type of strategy that might potentially get someone under the radar? I've talking to spoken to several people in the space. I should use my english properly talking. I've spoken to several people in the space. I should use my english properly talking. I've spoken to several people in the space and they all have different, mixed opinions on whether this works for them or not. Curious how a trader views the parlay wager relative to straight bets it's going to. 

35:00 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
It's going to depend. It's going to show up in the clv calculation. It's going to show up right at the top, right, like what's the most CLV you can get on a straight. Let's say 10%, right, and let's say that you get 5%, 5% CLV wages all parlayed together. You know, I'm not 100% sure what that would be like, what that would math out to be, but it's going to be really high and it's going to be a lot more than 10%. So they're going to show up right at the top because you might run a report and it's just going to be sorted by X ROI and the top person is just going to be some ridiculous outlier where they might've got either one crazy wager where the starting quarterback got ruled out or whatever, or there's going to be a parlay of a bunch of things together. 

35:44
So the trader is going to see it, but whether they go in and are actually going to get rid of you kind of depends on how deeply they're going to look into it. I wouldn't do it under an account named Rob Pozzola, that's for sure. I may do it off of an account not named Rob Pozzola, then you may get away with it. The other thing I just wanted to leave as a disclaimer is you talked about how this is my experience. This is also, in fact, probably mostly, my experience as a better, more than it is point-span specific for all of these things. 

36:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Interesting. So we talked a little bit about limiting based on CLV. Now, not for anything but the book's limiting based on clv, the betters are winning based on clv. Is this not a major point forward in the clv debate that this actually matters and is the truest indicator of if you're going to win shipper? 

36:42 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
well, I think. I just think anybody who's like who is a non-clv trupper? They're just obviously very stupid, right? Like there's not even really any point paying attention. If you're debating this at the moment, you probably believe the earth is flat. I just can't. You can win without CLV and the best do win without CLV. But like why are we concentrating on this tiny little percentage? There's no point. 

37:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you want to win, if you want to win, get CLV's probably the answer agreed and and I mean hearing it now from the other end, by the way for a lot of these, for a lot of our listeners, and I think it's just like the last kind of nail in the coffin. 

37:20
Like you look at the book, they're limiting you based on if you're getting clv or not. Obviously that means you would prefer to not get clv and win, but it just shows how difficult it actually is to go ahead and do that and how much of an indicator actually getting the clv is to you winning. Because they're like you're hearing from shipper right here like points bet is not even limiting base, or sorry, I wouldn't say points bet specifically but books aren't even limiting based on whether you win or lose. That's does that not like open up so much in your head like they're not. Even if you could win a massive bet and have negative clv, and they'll be like, yeah, keep keep on dunking, keep on going, whereas if it's reversed, five, six bets in a row see ya, we don't want your action like it's the truest indicator of success. Closing line value you know what. 

38:02 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
You know what people really love in the corporate world is slide decks, uh, like, like, uh, powerpoint presentations and uh, I know my accent sounds funny when I say Dex, so I really tried to say it a little bit different. But I created this like beautiful graph where it's like the winner in the short run, the way that you can tell that they're a winner. The first one is how they maximize the promotional terms. Second one is when they place their wages. Is it early, is it late? Do they use parlays? Do they not use parlays, whatever? Third one is CLV, after X amount of bets, which is typically really low. And then the fourth one is whether they win in the long run. That's how you tell whether a better is a winner in the small sample. Now if you look in the large sample, it's the complete opposite way around. In the large sample, whether you win or lose, that's the, that's the most important thing. And then it kind of goes down in importance from what's a large sample Like? 

38:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
is it a number? 

39:00 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
of thousands, thousands of bets. 

39:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay. So I was just going to ask that because, uh, I've always been curious. I mean, and this is just, this is just again your experience but have you ever encountered a better who, over a very large sample of size large sample size was getting poor clv but continuously winning? In your experience, does that actually ever happen? 

39:26 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
yeah, but like you're not going to spend that long trying to find them and ultimately it only comes to a head when they win a bunch of money and then you really truly dig down into what they're doing and most of the time they will trip up in another area, something like their betting pattern they bet the same thing all the time, or they bet the same thing all the time, or they get the same way all the time. That exploiting one weird area of your same game parlay engine, they're exploiting one, uh, like little quirk and correlation that you don't have quite correct and like there isn't and maybe the whole market has it incorrect. But if they're just betting the same thing every time, what's the probability that that person is a loser? Do they really love beating this like exotic thing or do they really love beating this like exact, like. Uh, you know this exact wager type all the time? The person who beats the major market without getting clv uh, you know that's a real unicorn and that they're probably not getting it points bit. 

40:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So has there ever ever been scenarios where you looked at a guy's profile guy or girl's profile and you're like you know what? I'm gonna let them fire away, they're not gonna beat me and check back maybe a couple weeks later only to found find they they. They basically took you to the cleaners and has it ever happened to you? 

40:46 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
never, never, when you're 100 sure, but uh, there's certainly times when you're a hundred percent sure, but uh, there's certainly times when you're like I think this guy's like 70% good, 30% bad, and then you come back two weeks later and it's uh, it's pretty pretty, uh, pretty conclusive that you got it wrong. 

41:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay. So you've never been a hundred percent sure that someone was a square and they beat you up. 

41:07 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I don't think so Okay. 

41:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Good, good Fair think so. Good, good, fair enough. 

41:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
One thing on my end. So you mentioned basically running your own version of reports in your head, sometimes like an EV calculation. You also mentioned actual reporting, like a closing line value report. I'm interested in the software or the tools that are available to traders to help with their risk management responsibilities. Like what are we talking about here? Like there's people out there that thinks there's like this level of sophistication from sports books, that's just like extreme, Like they have all the power in the world to immediately identify this, that and the other. How much manual digging do you have to do? Is there a possibility that stuff can fly under the radar? I'm curious in terms of the level of sophistication of the software. 

42:00 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Some of it. Yeah, you get pretty good signal for everything. But the other thing is, from my experience, every book is so different in the way and what works and what doesn't. You've kind of got to test it out to see which stuff, stuff, uh, slides through, um. I don't really want to get into specific examples of how what things work at other books, um, but I would say that most of the things, I would say that a lot of bettors don't think about what books can see when, when you place a bet, like you know, the, the, the one of the first things that people will get caught with when they try to bid into a book is, you know, a device match, um, a device match is when you have a, an account, and then you use someone else's account on your on that same device. That's going to get caught by pretty much every book. Like, probably, probably, don't do that, a, you're not, you shouldn't be doing that anyway. 

42:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's like you shouldn't be placing 100. 

43:00 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
You shouldn't be doing that and and it's and it's arguably against the law. Potentially, I don't like we haven't seen anything tried for that uh, which is going to be really interesting once it does get to that level. But yeah, that's like probably the most rookie era. Other things will be IP matches. You know, say, you're using the same device, but I've been a different device, but you're using your laptop instead of your phone on your home Wi-Fi. You're going to get in trouble there. Those things are all linked. So you've just got to think about what things could potentially identify you and then how could they link you to a bed. Um, you know, if you have the same last name, that's also going to get caught. Like, just if you, you, you need to think about it. I think. If you're, if you're from the better perspective, we're talking about people. You know what percentage of people get limited? Not really that many, I know you know what do you have a percentage? 

43:48
for no, I, I, I really, I really Projections. 

43:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Three, maybe 3%, 3% of bettors get limited. Something like that. 

43:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But because that's that's like industry standard of the percentage of bettors that wins like roughly right. 

44:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, I know, I know I'm just saying 3%, 2%, 3%, like it's good to get a nice percentage in there. 

44:06 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
That would, that would. That would be the guess. Yeah, and it's just, you know, people I think would consistently overestimate that just because they might have their ticker set up. And this kind of answers your question about what traders you see. They have a bet stream, All the bets come in, you know, and they'll have some form of filter on there. Some of the time it might be a percentage of the max wage of the book limit that you have for a standard client in that particular wage of type. So let's say that the standard limit for a standard client, before it gets sent to a trader or gets sent for approval, is 10K. 

44:43
On a point spread like kind of close to the jump on the NBA, now maybe a trader might have they might see all wages that are above 50% of the max bet. 

44:55
So on a prop, let's say the prop is 500, they would see all prop wages over 250, and then they would see all side bets over 5,000, something like that. And some traders might have a hard stake limit. They might have, say, all wages over $100. Some traders might have a to-win or a liability limit where it's all wages, where the book will lose over $1,000 if this bet does hit. So you kind of need to try and figure out what the trader may be seeing on their end. Again, you've kind of got to think through these things, you've got to test them. The point that I wanted to get to around inflating the number of accounts that get limited, is you don't see those $1, those 50 cents in game parlays. They just don't hit your ticker, and so you're just kind of always going to pay much attention to like the bigger and the sharper wages I swear we will move on from this topic at some point very shortly here. 

45:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But one last thing that I'm curious about is how much of the limiting or profiling of players happens in real time relative to after the fact, because nowadays you have obviously like big services like right angle sports, right. I'm just assuming that a trader would have some access to real time wagers that are coming in one by one. A release comes out from a big service or something and just the screen starts lighting up with all these wagers would seem pretty easy that the trader could just then click that account and be like limit limit, limit limit, like how much of that actually happens, versus it just being like a CLV report at the end of the day. 

46:37 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yeah, most of them are getting caught by a CLV report. And the other thing is like you've got to think about the size of the book. The smaller the book, the more manual or the easier it is for a trader to spot your stuff. You know you are getting at a book that doesn't doesn't have a ton of action or that has a really low market share, then anything that you do is going to um see greater attention than if you are bidding at draft kings or fandor where they're taking tons of wages. Um, yeah, that's so. So I would like add a guess. That's probably something like you know, five percent of people who are no far less than that, one percent of people who are getting limited, are getting done in real time. Um it to talk about the example, though it is really easy, it sticks out like a sore thumb when you, when you tail right angle sports just for the audience out there. 

47:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do want to preach this one more time. We've talked a lot about limiting and you know, doing things to prevent your accounts from getting limited and so on and so forth. One spot in Ontario where that will not happen to you, no matter what, is Pinnacle Sportsbook. They offer the same limits to every single person. No matter what you bet, you're going to be able to bet the same as your friends, me and Johnny got the same bet limits and and we don't have to rob that might have more of that limits actually possibly. 

47:50
I'm kidding we're just joking, we, we, uh we don't have to worry about that we just do not have to worry about that all altogether. 

47:56
So if you're in ontario and you do want to sign up for pinnacle sportsbook, do so using code hammer, as it does help support the show. Um, in the same vein, chipper, but like a little bit different, curious what your thoughts are on responsible gaming and, more specifically, whether or not limiting winning bettors is a direct contradiction of all of this responsible gaming push and these campaigns that are coming from sports books right now. 

48:29 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yeah, I think books do take responsible gaming seriously. You get trained on responsible gaming when you're a trader, and that's happened at every stop I've been to, if you spot it. Although people may think that traders of these regulated sports books are vile and immoral, they also they are human. They like feel um an obligation to report any any um responsible gaming issues. It then goes outside the trader's hands and is dealt with by, like internal uh responsible gaming um teams. 

49:03
Now the difficulty is that often these, these um irresponsible gamers are very profitable for the books and so limiting winning bet is kind of antithetical to responsible gaming in a sense, because you know what can potentially be irresponsible is losing a lot of money. Winning a lot of money is never going to be irresponsible, right? Is losing a lot of money? Yeah, um, winning a lot of money is never going to be irresponsible, right, or or maybe. But winning a lot of money sustainably is like is almost never going to be irresponsible. So it's hard, like when you kick out those bettors. 

49:40
You're certainly not doing so for responsible gaming reasons, and one of the issues that is probably going to come on shore in the states and in canada um in the near future and we're're seeing in the UK is books having to deal with responsible gaming issues and then using that as a tool to kick out winning sports bettors. Things like source of funds, checks and kind of limiting people by placing large wages based off of how much they have in terms of income and all that sort of stuff like that will disproportionately Like when a book If a book is able to apply that and are the arbiter of doing so and there's no and the commission isn't, or the gaming commission or the regulator isn't doing a good enough job of policing it, then that will disproportionately affect winning peters. That is really icky, really disgusting and hopefully something that the usa will be able to deal with in a manner that is kind of a little bit different to australia and the uk yeah, what's? 

50:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
what's extremely hypocritical, I think, from my perspective is listen, I'm glad sportsbooks run responsible gaming campaigns. Like I said I've I've I've told my story in the past before, but I grew up and I lost a lot of money betting on sports and I wish that there was like a little bit more education out there at the time that I was growing up. So I do applaud them for that. But it seems extremely hypocritical to say, like we care about responsible gaming, bet within your limits, but guess what, we don't want any winners. Like we're only taking your action if we know that you're going to lose in the long run. Like to me, there's a clear divide between those two like campaigns essentially right, or one campaign and then the behind the scenes we don't want to take any winning, winning action whatsoever. I I just that that really bothers me about the space right now is that there is this push towards the public facing responsible gaming, but behind the scenes, with the rec book, it's like well, guess what? If this guy's gonna win, see you later. 

51:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
To the limits, we don't want the action anymore you basically, and the press conferences are more like well, it's for recreation only, so like right for recreation, it's for losers only. 

51:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like is basically what the translation of that is. And that's where I have an issue with like the outward facing responsible gaming campaigns now, because I just think that they're it's all fluff, like it's all pr. It's just, it's just trying to put a different lipstick on a pig type of situation. 

52:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think it is peter might have some in his table. Oh sorry, I don't know if I can say that I'm also. I'm a, I'm a vegan myself. 

52:13 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
So I do, I do uh, I do uh enjoy that you guys have stopped uh talking about killing uh two birds with one stone very very, very feed two birds with one scone, as peter would like to say I wonder if lipstick on a pig is actually one of them. 

52:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's, that would be. That would be funny if. If not, they gotta make it. Sorry. Sorry, shipper, go ahead. 

52:32 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
No, that's all right To discuss the matter at hand. 

52:33
I think like, yes, it is hypocritical, but kicking out winners is like a different part of. 

52:44
As long as you're not removing winners using responsible gaming, then to me these are two separate issues. Using responsible gaming, then to me it's. These are two separate issues. Like, if you're using responsible gaming like um, as as a guile or sorry, it's like something to hide behind to um to say that, like you're removing this person because you don't think that they're betting responsibly, that's bad. 

53:07
If you're kicking out all your winners and then you are applying responsible gaming measures to the remaining pile of people who are going to lose long term, that's fine and, in fact, very good in my opinion, as long as that's done in a manner that is like truly you know, adhered to and people and these books aren't getting greedy. Now you've seen some massive fines occur in the uk. I think intang got fined 18 million dollars or something, um, and so if the fines are big enough, then the books should hopefully act in their, in what is their best interest, and and that best interest would align with, uh, with responsible gaming, um being adhered to as well fair enough, fair enough, all right, chip. 

53:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We got a game for us here. This is for all the gambling. Twitter faithful, you guys are going to thank me for this. One should be pretty fun, right? So our friend here, rob isola. He's compiled the list. 

53:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's got five names, five different I got more than five, okay, okay, we're top five in it. 

54:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, maybe we'll go deeper. He's got a list of names that have appeared on the shippers timeline and let's call it a negative light. You know, maybe not the most positive light, who knows what exactly was said, but there's some people in the space that you should be familiar with that the shipper disagrees with in the industry. So what we're going to do is we're going to list out name by name and we're going to get the shipper's thoughts on that person in real time to anybody whose name is on this list. I don't even know who's on the list right now, who we're going to mention. It's all fun and games. If you want a chance to defend yourself, comment below and while you're there, like and absolutely smash that like button. All right, go ahead. 

54:43 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Rob okay, let's start with book at trent yeah, he is an interesting character because I agree with you that his content is entertaining and it's well. It's not entertaining to me, but it's definitely entertaining to plenty of people. Like watching this like fat white dude, like twerk after losing bets is like pretty funny, I suppose. Uh, that that to me is is like entertaining, provides entertainment value. I agree with you that he doesn't represent himself as a winning better, but he does represent his life like pretty good. He hangs out with his friends all day, he gambles all the time, he goes to these sporting events and like to me it's like incredibly good marketing. 

55:30
Bookit is like incredibly good at how they market and if, if they weren't so bad in their responsible gaming, they would be snapped up by a regulated book right away. Like the deal with prize picks can't be big enough that fandor draft kings wouldn't go and get them anyway. Um, what they, what it shows, is it? It's almost this like it's almost building up what losing how like, how great. Losing is like cool. I lose all the time, but I still get to hang out with my friends all day. I still get to go to the games. I still get to like have these sick sweats all the time and it's there's no consequence for his losses. But and like it models, it models the losing behavior to the books, which is why it's so brilliant okay this is very interesting. 

56:15
This is your episode. 

56:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I I won't debate this for like half an hour. Um, it came up on on the bet bash panel. With that I was on with darren revell and it was a little bit misquoted in rufus's tweet thread, which was just him typing things that weren't necessarily brought up in the right context. One day, the video of that is gonna come out and, like what I said, will be explicitly clear. 

56:40
I did not shed light on the book at brand as like being this, oh, this great brand or anything like that. It was just that Trent is a big personality that I think is real with his followers. Um, now, your point is well taken about like living the lifestyle, and he's doing that using prize picks, money, essentially to go to baseball games, hang out with friends all the day, all day and shoot content, and I understand that. But, relatively speaking, for someone with that following who makes light of the fact that they're not a winning better, they're very open with the audience about that and just that they want to build a community of people to like sweat games with maybe not like completely kosher, but I also don't think extremely harmful. So that's my take on that. You can. You can feel free to rebut that yeah, um no, I agree. 

57:30 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
And the funny, the funny thing is like obviously my twitter is so black and white. Uh, every like with everything there's there's always shades of gray. There are aspects of what trent does him. His transparency about losing is like it's very good, that's like somewhat that's like a positive mark in his camp and I agree with you that that is helpful. The other thing is, is the bet mix too? Like he is the model character, like obviously he's being told to bet parlays and then when you bet parlays, you can like hype up winning each leg, sweat each leg perfectly, make it look even more and more fun, give these huge bangs when you hit the first leg of your six leg parlay. Like these are these are really good things. Um, from a marketing perspective, if not through view through a marketing lens and just through an entertainment and like losing lens, then like I think it's fine, but I truly believe that he causes the most harm of any of any individual. That doesn't work for a sports, like doesn't technically work for a sports, but fair enough, all right. 

58:39
Up next. Okay, okay, uh, plus ev analytics. Friend of the show. Friend of the show, I think. 

58:41
I think with plus ev analytics he's very clearly somebody who can win. 

58:43
He's very clearly somebody who can uh price markets in ways and like deliver lessons that are like really handy um to some bidders. 

58:51
It's just like really difficult to square that away, with um not trying to like maximize his edge a little bit and just like tweeting out. Tweeting out about these things, like just I suppose it's kind of difficult because, um, I'm making a moral judgment on someone else's behalf about like just man, just be quiet and like bet these things, rather than um having to having to like educate people. The other and then the other thing is that I think parameter uncertainty and and talking about a lot of um talking dealing with like variants is helpful on some things, but I think he focuses on areas of getting a better price, or having a better price than what, or having a better fare than what market is, without actually focusing on the interesting stuff, which is having, instead of understanding the variance of a player, understand whether that player is actually good or not, or whether that team's actually good or not. It's just like not the content that I'd like to consume, I suppose fair enough. 

59:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, I get the point like, especially the the first point about you know him being a winning better, just like, keep the stuff to yourself. I think that's probably pretty much echoed by a lot of winning betters uh, in the space, and I think that's uh, that's totally fair. Uh, rex buyers tv by the way, great guy. Yes, shout out plus yeah, we I'm I'm friends with plus ev. I'll make that known out there. I think he's a good dude, um. So yeah, that's it. 

01:00:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I just wanted all right, I'm next. 

01:00:24 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Sorry, go ahead I'm not surprised that. Plus, if he's a good dude, I definitely don't think reussiv is a good dude. I definitely don't think Rick Spires is a good dude, right Like. There's just no way, actually, contrary to that. 

01:00:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say so again this is all through our own personal lenses, right, and sometimes like one or two experiences with someone might completely change your opinion of them. I would honestly say that this interview with you, shipper, has largely changed my opinion of you. That's honestly say that this interview with you, shipper, has largely changed my opinion of you. That's the honest truth. Just a one-hour interaction, very articulate, and we can engage in good discussion, whereas online we can't. Rex Byers. 

01:01:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Shitty Points. 

01:01:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Bet Trader joins for a discussion I don't remember if I called Shipper the Shitty Points, bet Trader or Sprotz, better it was one. But whatever, I think it was Shipper. It might have been Shipper. It might have been Shipper, was it you buddy? 

01:01:24 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yeah, it was me, but you've got to take it that two former Points Bet Traders now very successful. I like to think of myself as very successful. Sprouts is definitely very successful winning bettors, so it's fostered some winning bettors. 

01:01:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, it's funny because here's the thing that really gets me is that there's a lot of overlap between people that we generally deal with, especially myself and Sprouts, yet there's like this vitriol online, like this hate that spewed. Anyways, we'll get into that in one second. We started with rex byers. I said the name already rex byers I've met in person several times and he's probably one of the most enjoyable people to be around, as a, as a human, just like a generally good guy, very friendly. I don't think it necessarily always comes across, maybe on twitter, and that might be where you're going with it yeah, I think I think like this one is just sorted by political differences. 

01:02:23 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I think, um, more than anything, like a. I don't think that he's incredibly smart, um, just by some of the way that he thinks about things. He's very old school, you know, like probably like pretty smart and like a reasonable person to be a trader, but certainly like not someone who's incredibly brilliant. The issue, most of the issues I take with him is is like he's just happily, you know, doing everything, but calling people the N word online, online, like it's just not good. Um, yeah, you, I mean you can, you can dig that back through some, uh, some past history. Uh, he's, he's a, he's a. He's just a proudly right-wing man, which is fine, um, but I yeah very happy to take issue with that okay, fair enough, uh brock landers brock landers I think is a funny one. 

01:03:12
He's kind of one where it's been. I think I'm kind of surprised where you got where you've been um a fan of his, at least in the past. Because you've talked about misrepresent, misrepresentation, um, I think he kind of at least somewhat, represents himself, as you know, know this winning baseball originator, and then often it's not really that. He's a tough like. I just think he says some, says some like really stupid stuff sometimes, like he tweets out that Sandy Day every time Sandy Alcantara pitches, or like or Otani Day or like I don't know. I don't really have that much of a problem with him. He just kind of is funny to laugh at. 

01:03:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's some people that can rub you the wrong way. Definitely. I'll push back a little bit on the misrepresentation with him because I don't think he outwardly says that like he's this full time pro and great originator. Like going into the interview that we had with brock landers, I just didn't really know much about him, um, and we asked the questions. It came out that he has like a secondary business and I think a lot of people jumped on him for that, thinking that you know, maybe sure he's representing himself as a pro better. I didn't get that personally, but I get that final one we're going to throw to you, uh, the circles off channel in, specifically me, johnny from bet stamp I think you spelled it j-a-a-a-h-n-n-y. Uh, kevin davis, I think those would be the three that you've had some issues with over the last couple. 

01:04:37 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Oh, I guess go one by one here yeah, uh, I think it's like so easy to just call out. Like, when you guys are producing so much content, it's so easy to call out something that you've got wrong. Like, even if you're not, it's the same way as if you're booking if you have 99 correct prices on site and one percent bad, you're gonna get smoked on the one percent. It's the same with you guys. Like, you guys will just get some things wrong sometimes or like some things that I disagree with, and then I will call it, call that out, without ever, ever actually praising you for like the good stuff and the stuff that I agree with, and that's why it's so like so, um, kind of divergent, um, given davis is a little bit different like I think that it's pretty easy to say, it's like easy to say that you guys are winners, likely winners. Um, that that would be my opinion of percentage in the long run Well over 90, I would guess. 

01:05:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For me it's 100. For you, I don't know. 

01:05:40 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I did go in and both ban you before you even made your first bet. What's bet? 

01:05:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I believe Stop right there, stop right there. I have to discuss this. 

01:05:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We were at no. I can't say that. We have to discuss this. We were at no. I can't say this. We can't say this Is it mine or yours? I'm going to say mine only. I'll say this. I'll say this I can't play at points bet. Never once placed a bet. I'm banned. There were some notes on my account. I don't know who wrote the notes. I don't know. I'm not going to disclose what those notes said, but all I can, just all I know is that shipper has confirmed that it was him. 

01:06:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I will also say that I won't give the specifics cause I don't want to get anyone with this brand in trouble or anything like that, but I have seen a note on my points bet account Now. Now that I know that it's come from you, it's actually incredibly disappointing. I take back all the good things that I said. I wasn't even looking to bet a lot on that account. I like I maybe deposited like 5k or something like that, like it was a small amount doesn't matter. 

01:06:44 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Are you gonna lose, like are you gonna lose or you're gonna win, and what does it look like. What does it look like? What does it look like, as well, selling up the like. What does it look like, as well, selling up the chain, like, if you do win, like I, the only question was, like, is it worth keeping you around to foster, um, you know, some benefit? But positive promotional media, true story. This is a true story. 

01:07:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I ended up winning I don't know roughly 4k on that account and I did that on like $50 bets, if not smaller. I just kept clicking. It kept telling, by the way, that software I don't want to get into like a whole problem, but like I couldn't place a $50 back, I had to place $49.99. Don't even get me started on how annoying that was, but I did it out of pure spite. You understand that, like there are sports books who limit me like can be books, I'm limited to way less than that, like $8. And I will first of all refer everything to trader out of spite, cause I want somebody to have to click like no, don't take this. Uh, just take a second out of their day, but I will play on that account more, just just to take a little bit of money. 

01:07:53 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yeah, absolutely. But like is a $50 bet on? So we talked about taking sharp action previously. Is taking $50 from Rob Pozzola actually a good move? Like, hey, two bucks in EV to move the price would be pretty good. Wow, you know, if that's the cheapest we can get you to continue to play like, that's probably pretty good. 

01:08:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's basically a trader. 

01:08:10 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
50 bucks Exactly get you to continue to play like that's probably pretty good. He's basically a trader, exactly and isn't, and 50 bucks like at least a little while ago points, but used to take at least 50 bucks in every prop and 250 bucks on every site in total, which like, yeah, that's not not very much, but hey, it was bigger than what. Uh, some of the can be books and other and everyone else did so like we actually did find some value when we could take it at that low of a level, like there was actually a bit of value in taking those bets. Um, you talked about I'm the idiot now. 

01:08:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
By the way, today I thought I was doing you guys a disservice you were working for points, but for two bucks a click 4k and they made like 50k off of it just by moving you consulted for them for six months for 4k sons of bitches. 

01:08:52 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Exactly. I used to one funny thing about sending things to Trader. I used to put 50 cent bets through to a place called Crown Bet in Australia and they like turn my account off and put me in the naughty corner for six hours. Every time I do it Just get so annoyed and just send 50 cent, 50 cent, 50 cent, and then I have to reject it over and over again because I was everything with Sensor Trader. So yeah, I too enjoy the spiteful wages. 

01:09:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, chippers, this has been an incredible episode so far A lot of value. I think we wanted to then shift now and talk a little bit about the betting side as opposed to the sportsbook side. You're now betting full-time, presumably doing really well, and wanted to kind of get your thoughts on something that's really timely NFL biggest market right now. What are you betting on in NFL? How are you getting an edge? What can we give out that's providing even more value and fun for everyone? Listening here. 

01:09:47 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I will preface that I don't focus really at all on the NFL. There is some markets that I do play in that I kind of want to keep quiet. What I would like to talk about, though, is like how to attack it. I think, if you are coming from a recreational background or a background where you follow the NFL like intense, intensely, and ways that you can win, I wanted to talk about we kind of talked about how sports books are pretty greedy. They're kicking out winners, um we, we kind of talked about how sports books are pretty greedy. They're kicking out winners. They are, um, are letting losers wager a whole bunch of money. They have ways that they want you to place wages. 

01:10:24
Now, same game parlay is obviously the golden goose for everybody, right, like that's how sports books have begun to fatten up their uh, fatten up their profits. I obviously don't go in and just like donk away your money in same game parlays. You can win in same game parlays, though, like almost without a doubt, if you truly understand how the correlations work of these things. Now, if you think, for example, that Tyreek Hill has, is he going to have the same correlation as just a you know, a Julian Edelelman, for example, in terms of the his receptions to receiving yards, um, and the way that the sgp engine is dealing with that, um, things like, uh. And then also understanding some game script stuff, um, where a team with a really strong passing offense like this is probably more NCAA football. 

01:11:17
But let's take Colorado Deion Sanders, as we said, number 21, episode 21. They have an extremely strong passing offense and an extremely bad run offense. So when they are in the lead, what do these engines, what does the pricing engine say about their run pass distribution? Now, it's going to be like, and does that reflect reality? Now you can just hone in on these specific teams and you're a super fan. You know everything about these teams and the sport and the players. Now you can start to think okay, how does my team differ in the games when game states are in specific states, versus what the entirety of the NFL does? And is the same game parlay engine or is the pricing engine offering a blanket price for everything? 

01:12:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is actually some of the best advice that's ever been given out on this channel before, because essentially it's attacking the markets that the sports book wants you to bet into, but understanding the limit limitations on the algorithm within that market and looking for, essentially, a way to exploit that. 

01:12:30
It's similar to an episode we talked about in the past with live betting algorithms before and exactly how a live betting algorithm might work for an NFL game and how it might not take into account certain things, but the tendencies, I think, are extremely important and that's someone that even like a recreational better, can easily filter through stats. Look at game scripts in the past. See that a team that potentially is up four touchdowns might not behave the exact same way as another team who's up four touchdowns might not behave the exact same way as another team who's up four touchdowns. You talked about this for years Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans, and how they would lean on the run. Johnny, this is one of the first conversations we ever had in terms of like second half betting when the Titans had a lead, and how they were just basically gonna feed him the ball 90% of the time in those second half. So very, very good these are angles. 

01:13:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can get sorry if you actually watch the games too, and a lot of people do enjoy watching the games. That's where you're going to get like these little tidbits do exactly, and this thing is. 

01:13:25 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
This thing is not only, um, something that's going to stop you from getting limited, it's also really fun. Like it's really fun to like know that derrick henry's uh, average yards per carry is not affected so much by having eight men in the box versus seven men in the box like he. He is, like, defense agnostic, so we would, we wouldn't expect his yards per carry to come down as much in the second half, even when the other team knows that they're running. Things like this is like. This, to me, is how the recreational NFL better should be looking to attack these markets. It's just so much more interesting, I think, to me than trying to get ahead of a line move or bet some top-down stuff. 

01:14:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is interesting. It's definitely more work and I think that's where a lot of it and especially when you think about what the recreational better might value nowadays in their handicapping, which is like public betting percentages and short-term trends and stuff like that, it's definitely getting out of your comfort zone. If you're watching this or listening to this and you care about public betting percentages or you're using trends in your handicapping, I think what we're trying to say here is like get away from that stuff and start to figure out other ways, because in the long-term not going to be successful. Uh, do you do this for other sports as well? Uh, shipper. Or or, specifically, you focus on nfl yeah, like a really good example. 

01:14:47 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Um, you can do this and basically everything trying to understand, uh, understand where variances are different across across teams. Like, let's say, a sportsbook trader example I used to ask in an interview was let's say that both James Harden and Victor Weminyama, for the upcoming season, are expected to average 20 points per game. That's their mean. Now, who is more likely to average at least 18 points per game and who is more likely to average at least 18 points per game and who is more likely to average at least 22 points per game? Now, the variance on women, yama is much different to james harden, because james harden's been in the league forever. We are so sure about the the or the um, his true probability being 20 points per game is much more likely than when manama, which has a much wider distribution. 

01:15:38
Um, now, a really good example of this is like um, a few years ago, james wiseman came into the league and he was in for about 8.5 points. 

01:15:47
Uh, on his prop market he has exactly the same variance by the sports book as every. As like pj tucker being in for eight and a half points and like a there's, we're unsure about how many minutes james wiseman was going to play b. We're unsure the sports book as every, as, like pj tucker being in for eight and a half points and like a it is. We're unsure about how many minutes james wiseman was going to play. B. We're unsure about how often he's going to get the ball. And then c, we're unsure about how good he is. He has a far greater likelihood of scoring 20 in that game. And that that sort of thing was priced at 100 to 1 um. And so looking, trying, just trying to think, I suppose, like use your intuitive and logical knowledge about how these sports work to try and find the holes in these sports books. That's a much greater idea than, yeah, as you said, looking at public bets, bet percentages, things like that. 

01:16:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you dabble in the more traditional markets, like are you betting full game sides and totals across major sports, or have you shifted to like these alternative markets? 

01:16:41 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I do not, I will bet some. I will bet some of these things and in specific situations I will place these wages. I won't do it a whole bunch and they certainly don't make up the staple of my wagering. The staple of my wagering mostly comes from uh, from betting international basketball, uh, which I am betting sides and totals, but I but is obviously not, you know, the nba or the nfl fair enough and and and to get to that point. 

01:17:09
It's it's because I and johnny kind of talks about this all the time, it's. I came into this, I came into this whole whole thing with the assumption of efficient market hypothesis, and it just kind of so happens that each year there are more and more and more things that you find out that doesn't fit the bill of being efficient or of market efficiency, and so there are more and more things that you can add, that you can end up beating Plus EV, minus EV. 

01:17:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You listen to the show. Give us your uh plus ev, minus ev of the week this one's this one. 

01:17:43 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
I'm not even sure whether it's good or not, I think plus ev is not closing out your bar tab and just walking away like not having to deal with the admin of closing out the bar tab. You're very rarely. You're like almost certain not to get stung there, just walk away, don't deal't deal with the interaction that you have to do with. They're just going to add the regular tip on. You're going to give the tip anyway. Just don't deal with that. 

01:18:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wait, wait, wait, hold up, so still paying for it, but then don't they have your credit card. 

01:18:10 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yep, yeah, which is fine. In America, they just hand it back. At most we have a different tab. 

01:18:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Thing. Us Canadians have a different system here In Canada. If you open a tab, you have to give them your card and maybe an ID, and then they hold it and then you get it back at the end of the night. So the hassle of then having to go the next day and pick up your card would obviously be For sure. 

01:18:33 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
No, that's a terrible idea for Canadians then, but probably in over 80% of places that I've been over here, you hand them their card. They run the like. They kind of get the card on file, hand it back to you and then you can kind of just, you can just leave and they'll add a generic tip on top 18% or 20% or whatever. 

01:18:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Massive plus EV move. I would do that every time. Yeah, why would you want to then go off the weight and then like write it down? 

01:18:54 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
because, because, like, because someone might, like they might accidentally screw it up and add too many drinks to your bill or or whatever. So you're kind of like running some risk of doing that, although it's never happened to me in my in my couple of years over here. 

01:19:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you start, hopefully there's no bartenders listening, listening to this if you start an open tab, you get what you get like, so you might have someone put an extra drink on there. 

01:19:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, but even think about say you do this like every single time you go to a bar and one time they accidentally screw up and put an extra drink on it or whatever. It's still way more valuable, like your time and like sifting through everyone at the bar at the end of the night to close out. I would still rather that happen, okay good move, good move, all right. 

01:19:35 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Negative uh, negative ev, I think, is stressing about spend in your day-to-day life, like if it's on well, it's hard because this is kind of just the plus ev flipped around. You guys always talk about this but like worrying, like going to, worrying about going to whole foods instead of like uh, somewhere where, where it's a little bit cheaper, for for the Like, it's almost impossible to spend too much money if you just go and get groceries all the time, because the amount of takeout meals that it takes to like overcome that edge. And if you are like really annoyed with, like, your rotten onion that you have in the fridge or something like you just have like slightly higher quality quality vegetables or or whatever like, if you just if you spend more money on the uh, on the produce and stuff itself, you're more likely to cook and then you save yourself money in the long run okay again though this is the plus cv flipped on it. 

01:20:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's okay, it's a dumb segment. 

01:20:36
We just continue rolling with it anyways, because it's entertaining I agree with the not stressing over money although it does seem pretty high society to say that because there are people who are like I need to save the hundred a week on stuff and like, and you know, get the loyalty points and go and actually like, do all that stuff and that's. 

01:20:54
I will say this to add to this point. 

01:20:57
I used to be a guy who was like, oh, let me like get the hacks at the grocery stores when I this is when I was significantly younger I also worked for a company that you know preach that in the marketing. 

01:21:08
But I would like do loyalty point offer combined with this go here, make sure I got all these offers, and then like, I do it, and then I'd end up saving so much on my groceries and I'll be like I got 12 bags of shrimp for like $7 each, like I'm a stud and I'd literally like just be so fired up about it and I realized now, okay, obviously I don't do that anymore. I haven't haven't used a loyalty card in like four years, five years, but at the same time, those principles that helped me, that the principles and skills I learned in that are so transferable to everyday life. So when you're like, oh, don't stress over that, like going and grinding it out, the principle of that, to combining that with the regular life where it's more important, where now I can do that in business and maybe instead of saving six dollars I could save six thousand Yep. Now it's somewhat significant, isn't that crazy? 

01:21:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think it's crazy. 

01:21:59 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Absolutely. I think, like I used to always rip on oh, I'm sorry I have ripped on people worrying about taking best price, and you guys are obviously all about taking best price. I certainly used to when I was coming up in the industry. You need those like foundational things so that you aren't just some bozo who's just like donking it off on the worst price all the time. Right, you need to choose to take the worst price, for for another reason you say the worst price, because it keeps your accounts alive, like it's like the next evolution. You should all like you should always think about getting the best price on your groceries, on your fuel, on a sports bet at the start. From that point, you can then make a decision to deviate away from that path, based on values that you already hold. 

01:22:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's an interesting point you bring up from you specifically. Maybe people you associate with are you are looking for a podcast or YouTube video or whatever that is at your educational level in the sports betting space, which is extremely high. Like you want to tune in and hear stuff like compelling conversation. Our audience is very, very mixed, like extremely mixed. In fact, 75% of our audience now comes through organic YouTube, so people that are just searching for sports betting content on YouTube. Guess who's not doing that? Sharp bettors, right. So we have like an onus here to try to reach all of that audience. 

01:23:33
I'm not gonna say dumb it down, because that's not what it is, but when we preach best price, you're absolutely right. There's going to be instances where you don't necessarily want to get the best price and that could be for a variety of reasons. But for the vast majority of people, that's applicable and like they should be doing that until they reach the level of understanding why they shouldn't be doing that. Until they reach the level of understanding why they shouldn't be doing that and hopefully at some point we do get to a level of audience that everyone's extremely sophisticated and we can just have those conversations. But it's an inherent challenge for us, and I did want to put that out there. 

01:24:08 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
Yes, that's no for sure, I agree, and it's like that. I suppose the problem with that, that I have with it and that's kind of where this podcast will be hopefully of quite a bit of value is like following that path is like really good at the start, but the problem is they just leave. They just follow the pied piper off the cliff and the cliff is taking them straight. One-way ticket to bandville points that ban draft kings, ban vandal band, and so like. Then you don't really know where to scale from there, I suppose. Suppose that's kind of like that's the, that's the, that's the inherent challenge that you guys have to have is is catering, catering to the masses, and then also also I'm upskilling them from there. Although I suppose the answer to that is like, once they get to that level, hopefully you would think that these people have some critical thinking, that they can begin to make their journey forward. 

01:24:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I agree with both those ev moves. I have one of my own that's been on the chest that I got to get off this week not sports betting related. Okay, I want to hear what you guys think of this one. All right, my ev move of the week, and this is one that I'm extremely passionate about charge your goddamn phone. All right, there is absolutely zero excuse for your phone to ever be dead, or even below 50 ever in history. There's so many outlets never have a dead phone. Only bad stuff could happen. My phone has literally never died. I guarantee this. My phone has never once died ever in history. Any of my friends can. I've never had a dead phone. It will never die, ever, no matter what. Charge your phone, be responsible. You're going out at night and your phone. You're leaving the house with the phone at 38% battery. Are you joking me? Right now, charge your phone, everybody it's only positive free roll. 

01:25:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can guarantee you that 90% of the listenership right now just looked at their phone battery. 

01:25:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And probably is under 50%. 

01:25:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm at 73% right right now. 

01:25:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm very rarely below 50, but you're, you're allowed you're allowed to be at whatever percentage, like you're allowed to be at any percentage as long as you are consciously aware at all times of what percent your phone is at and you know when and when not. You can get to a charger real quick if you're. For example, I haven't charged my phone yet today at all. I'm at around 50% on my phone. However, I'm about to go plug in, dock up right after this podcast and charge my phone back up to a hundred, so I'm zero risk to ever drop the debt. 

01:26:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a good move. It's a good move, I want to say after last week I shared the bathroom hand-washing stuff. The amount of people that reached out to me this week and they're like you know, I never really thought to pay attention, but now that I do nobody washes their hands properly is actually unreal. It is actually an epidemic in the space. People, the fake soap people are, are by far the worst human beings Like. If you're going to take the time to fake soap into your hands and fake scrub, you might as well just do it. I don't understand that, but there's, I'm teasing. I'm not going to give a plus EV or minus EV for this week, but I am teasing. Next week we might have some extra footage that will accompany my plus EV or minus EV of the week. 

01:27:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm happy about that. Very, very triggering. All right, Chip. Final question question here and then we'll close off. If you could go back five years, talk to a previous version of yourself. What is? 

01:27:25 - The Shipper (ShipTheJustice) (Guest)
a piece of advice you would give the old shipper. Uh, it would probably be to uh bet more parlays. I think uh place, place more parlay wages. Uh, try to try to like burn the candle on your edges. If you have some edges, bet them really hard and try to extract them. If you're going to win, make a pay. I think is probably the answer. 

01:27:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, Great answer there. This has been an unbelievable episode. Thank you all for listening. Please like, subscribe, rate and review five stars. This is episode 121 of the circles off podcast here on the hammer betting network. We'll see y'all next week. Peace.