00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. It's Berry Horse, part 2. Need I say more? No, let's get right into it. Circles Off 122 starts now. Come on, let's go. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 122 right here. Part of the Hammer Betting Network presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. I'm Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from BetStamp. 

00:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Rob, today it's a special day. You might have noticed from the title that you read before you click this episode that we are joined by our first ever repeat guest other than myself technically plus cv analytics yeah, but we look, let's just throw him aside for a little bit. So we, without further ado, welcome in friend of the show and second time appear, barry Horse, sir Horse how's it going? 

00:49 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I missed 21 for uh for Bitcoin, but I'm here. How are you guys? 

00:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, doing well. We're. We're doing well. It's. Uh, I'm wearing the exact same outfit. I guess not the. I do have the hat here, but I didn't want to put it on, uh, because it's got like some sweat stains. This look pretty ugly, but this is the same anyone who watched, like the original barry horse interview that that like flows their way in. We're wearing like the same shirts on purpose but different background. 

01:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We hit. So barry horse came on opening day for this season and then we're recording. Today. This is tuesday, october 3rd. The jay's first playoff game is about first pitch in a couple hours here. So, uh, we got. We got mr horse on to talk some playoff baseball betting now he's got. 

01:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's got to start with the traditions of circles off here first, which is it's episode number 122. We typically go through numbers. You're a big baseball guy. We need a number 22. 

01:44 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I mean, I think it's easily Kershaw, who actually I think the average person he might be kind of like a little bit of a victim of his own success. I think the average person might not realize like exactly how much by far he's like the best pitcher of my generation at least like it. It's not quite like Barry Bonds level with some of the crazy stats, but he has like some pretty insane out there. Like once in a lifetime type like his, his monster 2014 season. He started I think he missed like three or four starts in April but he pitched from his first start that year until August 27th without throwing one pitch with the bases loaded. That like that one bends my mind every time I hear. I think there must be some caveat like bases loaded, no outs or something crazy. Like he did not throw a pitch with the bases loaded from opening day until august 27th. He had a as a hitter. He had a higher on base percentage than the hitters he pitched to that year but he effectively turned the opposing lineups into a lineup of pitchers. 

02:45
Um, and I think, like people know, that like four or five year peak window was like so stellar. I mean he was like a shoe in hall of famer before he was 30, which is not a soft sentence to say about baseball. Like that's crazy. And I think because of that, people kind of like relaxed on anything other than like a sub-2 era is boring from him and like even this year, like people are like trying to never talk about him. He he's having his worst year since 2010, basically in whip and basically everything, and he's leading the national league in whip like he has a higher whip than smell's gonna win cy young strider burns web all these guys. So I might have just front ran and screwed myself out of a Dodgers money line in game one or two next series. But for whatever I'm going to hold on that might be whatever three, four, 5%, I'll give up .03 units to a legend of the game. 

03:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The thing about Kershaw, though, is like when I was growing up so you referenced 2014. Around that time, I was like the most recreational better ever. Growing up, so you referenced 2014. Around that time, I was like the most recreational bettor ever and Kershaw was amazing, but he basically shit the bed every year in the playoffs, and it was like the thing that was going at the time. It's like Kershaw great regular season bet against him in the playoffs at these inflated odds. I think we can get into that topic of conversation as we go through MLB postseason betting and whether or not that's just small sample size, if there's something to it, but before we do, Hold up Kershaw. 

04:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A couple facts about him. Number one I believe one game he lost 1-0 to the San Fran Giants versus Madison Bumgarner, and Bumgarner hit the solo homer off him. So that alone I think Bumgarner's a better pitcher for the generation. Homer off him. So that alone I think baumgartner is a better pitcher for the generation. Doesn't even include his uh, incredible, uh, playoff performances and epic world series run where he got jobbed of getting the third win by a egregious stat statistician. In addition to about clayton kershaw most people don't know this about him he also is a childhood close buddy of matt stafford. Grew up with him in the same town and same high school, I believe from when they were six years old. Every single person in the world knows that one I don't there's that. 

04:53 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Okay, let me one up you okay what else great one called discovered pluto renaissance family really no longer part of the solar system. 

05:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't even I don't even call that stuff I did. I didn't find out about that until years ago, but when I grew up and we were educated, there was nine planets in our solar system. Pluto's not in this. When you went to school, was Pluto in the solar system? 

05:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I was at the tail end. I was actually in school when it got booted out. Tough break for you. And then some were like, yeah, Pluto's a planet. 

05:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And other some were like, yeah, Pluto's a planet and other people were like no, it's not. And then there was a for a year. It was a transition period, it's not considered part of our solar system. Yeah, bumgarner, I remember that very clearly. But it's funny you mentioned that because, like Kershaw was always considered like the better pitcher, but if you wanted like one pitcher in the playoffs, it was Bumgarner. Our perceptions change, based off like a few starts in the playoffs on a year to year basis. We're going to get into that a lot of baseball conversation. 

05:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We've got some other 22s. Go for real quick Jim Butler, jim, jim Butler, jim Butler. Najee Harris currently playing on the Steelers. You got Derek Henry oh yeah, a really great, really great, running back and hopefully it doesn't fall off. And then another one, which you have an incredible tweet oh yeah. 

06:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Back in the day. So Daniel Sedin from the Vancouver Canucks. I remember somebody sent me a message on Twitter and they're like have you seen this? And I'm like, no, what is it? So I clicked it and it was NHL players. This was like before Jimmy Kimmel had people reading mean tweets. It was the NHL, like having players read mean tweets or tweets about them. 

06:28
And the first one was Daniel Sedin and he read a tweet that I made about him a long time ago. So for those who don't know much about hockey, daniel Sedin is the twin brother of Henrik Sedin. They basically came through the NHL at the same time. They were drafted by the same team. They played together their entire careers. But I once tweeted Daniel Sedin is my favorite Sedin, aside from Henrik and he read that and like, with zero personalities, he's like ha ha, I like that. And they moved on to the next one. But it was definitely one of the shining moments in Daniel Sedin's career and I grew up with Emmitt Smith as the as the goat number 22. Really, Barry Sanders is a lot better, but we'll stricken that from the record because I am a Dallas Cowboys fan. 

07:14
The goat Barry Sanders, the goat of baseball betting, barry Horse and the goat of sportsbooks, pinnacle sportsbook available to bettors in Ontario. Find out what pros have known for decades, 25 years to be exact. Pinnacle is where the sharpest and best bettors play. We preach line shopping all the time. Price sensitivity it's very important in the betting world. Pinnacle has the best prices in market, plain and simple. So bet smart, bet Pinnacle, your trusted sportsbook. For 25 years. You must be 19 plus. Not available in the US. And, of course, as always, please play responsibly. Barry Horse, it's been a long time. It's been since the beginning of baseball season. Now to the end. What's new and how was the season? 

08:01 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I've just been studying Clayton Kershaw stats season. I've just been studying clayton kershaw stats. Um, yeah, fine, it's kind of an interesting market. I think I bet like by far the most favorites I've ever bet, like by far. Um, I think on average in my career before this year I probably the average price of the money line I bet in baseball was like little over $130,000. I think I averaged prices like minus $05,000 or something. This year it was pretty bizarre. Now every year you got to do work on the actual physical ball itself and the equipment. Pretty boring year in that regard. Yeah, it was a decent year. Everybody would always want to be better, but interesting season well fired off the telegram chat. 

08:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um, I'll say for my personal experience, you definitely cost the bet stamp office a lot of work hours overall because I think about 80 of our staff joined the telegram chat and would fire on the baseball bets. So thanks for that, mr horse. But uh, I know you provided some good winners. Everyone's happy, we're fired up, so we're happy about that. But how was, overall, the telegram chat experience? 

09:16 - Berryhorse (Guest)
yeah, I kind of just want to experiment with like what. How the market reacts is obviously like I observe it with other people too just like see what happens. Obviously, if there were, um, like a handful of like silver bullets, great stuff, you know things worth a lot of money, I wouldn't be sharing that with the world, but I do think still, even in 2023, I know lots of people strongly disagree, but I still think there's like pretty fundamental, just material. Obvious sounds so like arrogant, but like just close to like just an arguable inefficiency in baseball. That's not like super rocket science. That might as well be shared. 

09:57
I know I could bet more, but I just kind of want to experiment with like seeing how the market would react, how much that could handle. Like I know what one small private entity can move or bet. So I kind of want to estimate like how much worse of a price if, say, like 500-ish people are following in there, how much worse of a price are they betting at, and like how much can that collective of 500 get down? Like how does it look? Just kind of see what's there. So definitely interesting. 

10:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
My favorite part of following the telegram chat was not necessarily the pics. Pics are great, obviously. Whenever you're tailing someone who's winning, you're getting good closing line value. That's fantastic. But every now and then you kind of would have like your own personal introspective, I would call it maybe, where you'd record like a voice note for like three or four minutes and I'm like be like I wonder what this guy is up to now, like I, I did. I didn't know what state of mind you were in. If you're, you know you're drinking or you're like what not? 

10:51 - Berryhorse (Guest)
from from the masters until thanksgiving, I basically don't drink a sip of alcohol. I have one week for golf right before the football season where I go have fun, but I'll take the soccer series yeah, yeah, I um, I also notice you particularly. 

11:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, I'm just guessing here get triggered by, like some of the emojis that people immediately post on in the telegram groups not really and I I can turn them off. 

11:16 - Berryhorse (Guest)
triggers probably are all more, more amused and like I don't like probably a vast majority is just like fun, light-hearted trolling, but just like I can only imagine if people are betting real money, obviously like there could be different emotions and sometimes I address that. 

11:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So what was the final results for the season? If you want to pump some tires here, More wins than losses. 

11:42 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Baseball, yeah, is yeah baseball, yeah, I mean like tracking anything, and I'm not doing any of this to like brag or show off, but like anything where you just put a unit kind of just means nothing, is it? You want 20 units and paraplegic college women's division, four water polo or baseball money lines where you're not taking the best number, like late in the day when you can bet a lot. So you know, against I I think pretty um strict rules about like no injury games, like stuff. That's just kind of like the market's calling the numbers there for everybody to bet. That's kind of what I put in there for the baseball um, and I think up just under 16 units on the year, taking you know like kind of a median of the market, making books for price. 

12:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So question for you here and this is congratulations, by the way, on the success, because for everyone who's not actually familiar with it, as you mentioned, you're not just picking off numbers, you're not like hitting best price in market and just, like you know, essentially are a bit in scalping way to like a 16 unit season, which is not too difficult, that the smallest bet sizing you are betting like essentially that 16 units could be like 60 times 50 grand technically, if you're looking to get down or more. 

12:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A lot of the plays were when the market had already matured exactly exactly oh yeah, not, not branding, but all of them yeah, all of them. 

12:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All of them, exactly. So my question to you then would be in this scenario, where it's not necessarily sending out openers or like monday nfl or tuesday college football, stuff like that do you actually think that the people in the chat were able to get roughly equivalent or better prices to the plays that you gave up? 

13:21 - Berryhorse (Guest)
um, I would say it's. It's probably like net, something around 5 cents worse, like some they beat me, some they match me, some they're worse. There's also plenty like. At the start I was pretty clear Never be on money lines 3 cents worse than me or more than 30 seconds after me, because if the market hasn't moved or responded to it, that's enough signal to me that there's opposition that should be respected. 

13:51
Obviously, in our first episode episode we talked a lot about like how much faking of clv goes on. So obviously, when I know that's happening and the number is still available to bet it's. So on a couple of those I tried my best just to give out like hey, you know it got shoved in my face, but I kind of know why. Or, if I don't know why, I still think I'm right, like you can still bet this. So they've still probably got better prices than me on some of those which one Like again, this is your eight out of nine in baseball for me where my negative CLV games have done better than positive. So yeah, anyways, probably like five cents worse, with which, on like a hundred games would be like two and a half units worse than me. So I probably bet I don't even know actually something between 200 or 300 games call it 200. So they're probably five units behind me on average. So 11 instead of 16, something like that. 

14:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Still a profitable year, though Pretty good. 

14:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Barry Horse, did you notice anything fundamentally different about the MLB market this year? The only reason I ask is like we're seeing this with football now, with the nfl, college football now, different sports, because you have um, a week between games, a lot of times um, but there's been a lot of talk about how the market's maturing a lot earlier in the week. People are betting earlier. Did you notice the same thing with mlb, like, what was your volume like relative to years past? 

15:03 - Berryhorse (Guest)
uh, I would say I I mean in telegram I only put like half the games I bet or something like that um, so I mean it's going to be less every year, unless you're, you know, evolving and finding new stuff, which I obviously try to do so, um, relatively similar. As far as like timing, uh, baseball is just a little different because it's just 24 hours every time and there's only so much like things that could come out and a lot of stuff if it's like a star player gets hit by pitch. You know, in football if there's like a questionable player, they might have a pretty good idea the day after the game on like monday or tuesday, but in baseball, if you don't know until the day after, there's still gonna be high limits for that when that news kind of underground gets out there. You know what I mean. So it's kind of like you can only go so early in baseball on like the questionable injuries and stuff like that. 

15:54
So not a huge difference, to be honest. But yeah, I mean obviously, like every year more people bet. Every year that means there's more intelligent people betting and dumber, but also intelligent. And every year that means there's more intelligent people betting and dumber, but also intelligent, and every year that means there's more intelligent people who are betting $500 or less, who would be happy to bet overnight, so that'll always trend that way. 

16:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What's the main difference between regular season and then playoffs? Obviously, starting today, people listening to this will have the opening weekend like ALDS and NLDS coming up. 

16:28 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I mean in pricing, like a game it's really not too dissimilar. Like there's small edge cases where the bullpen might be managed more aggressively in a postseason game, where they might have rules in place in the regular season like they're never going to let a pitcher pitch three days in a row or four out of five days or maybe even three out of five days from the bullpen um, to keep them healthy, and like they might be okay making their win percentage in a regular season game 59 instead of 60 if that preserves them being able to be 61 instead of 60 for the next two days. You know, but that doesn't happen as much in the playoffs. Definitely like uh, deciding games, but honestly there's not like a crazy. Obviously like just because of the time of the year the weather gets colder, there's things like that. 

17:10
I mean the big thing from a couple years that I'm pretty fine talking about, just because it's pretty public, is like the actual physical ball itself, which is a whole tangent on itself. I don't know if you guys know the factories here in costa rica in tangent on it. So I don't know if you guys know the factories here in costa rica in quick sidebar, but like the most random city, ever not close to any port for shipping or airport. I have no idea how they picked it, but my girlfriend's, like whole family, works at the factory. So I went there before the season trying like you know, I'll take care of you guys like, can you tell me what? Because every year they like have a pretty material change in the baseball which you can imagine. Every year they like have a pretty material change in the baseball which you can imagine has a crazy effect on totals and everything, um and so, like different years past, I think 2021, they use a very obviously different ball than the regular season for the playoffs. And so my point is, even like the factory work, I'm at the point where, like it's, it's arguable, I think baseball is not doing anything intentional. It might, might just be accidental, I have no idea, but that's me saying I have no clue. 

18:07
But you can know pretty quickly and basically there's two traits of the ball that you really care about for gambling, for pricing a game. That's COR like coefficient of restitution, that's how bouncy the ball is essentially, which is not that changing really ever. As far as I can tell, that's easy to see just from bat speed and point on the bat is now tracked from the cameras too. You can see exit velocity based on that. If anybody plays golf it's like smash factor. It's easy to see. If you know the ball speed and club head speed, you know what the smash factor was. 

18:44
The bigger thing is the scene height and the drag coefficient and that's actually like you can tell that pretty quickly, like you need maybe a hundred four scene fastballs. Obviously you'd prefer a thousand, but you can tell pretty quickly and there's, you know, normally more than a hundred four scene fastballs in a single baseball game from both teams. So you can see the velocity out of the pitcher's hand and at home plate and know the air density in that game and you can see what the drag coefficient will be. So my point is like today we're recording this on the first day of the playoffs we'll probably know by tonight if there's, like at least for these four games, some material change in the ball it's funny. 

19:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You mentioned that and people who are watching on video on youtube rather than listening might have noticed me like laughing for no reason while you were talking about that, but all I could picture in my head was like you picking up a box of baseballs prior to the season and throwing like throwing them at a fence in the backyard or something just like testing out the spin and funny I went to the factory. 

19:36 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I literally went to the factory and met, like five other workers. No one has any clue what's happening. It's crazy it's literally at the point where, like I think it could be something as dumb, as simple because, like they're profusely denied any like minute which of course they could be lying but like part of me just wants to say, it's just like yeah, they might not know. 

19:55
They might not actually know like a couple like if you switch like this actual scene, like the string manufacturers and then like different stadiums manage the humidors differently now, so like maybe out of the factory here in Costa Rica they're identical, but after they ship change environmental conditions a bunch. Or you know again the humor was there the seams stretch out and grow Like it literally could be something that. 

20:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I see, it seems to me like there could just be some quality control issues in the Costa Rican factory, but I mean it's pretty, it's pretty obvious. 

20:21 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Like there, like last year was a really obvious, like you literally could just blind bet every under a post and win like four units in April last year. It was crazy, I forget. It was like May 18th or 23. I forget exactly. Somewhere around there it was like night and day. Obviously they changed the ball. So it's not like some stadiums have it, some don't. Some days you know it's pretty undeniable and then you know it is pretty undeniable and then you know there's obviously just day-to-day fluctuations. But I have no clue. Did you get like this shit did? 

20:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you, did you figure out, like, where the balls get shipped, like if they ship all of the balls for the whole season, like at the beginning, or if it just comes in like weekly shipments? 

20:57 - Berryhorse (Guest)
yeah, they have a bunch of batches and then there were like a surplus excess last year, so like that was, I think, the start of 2022. Last year they were using like some leftover balls from the year before and then, like halfway through, might have switched to a new one, but and then there was like a clear hybrid. Meredith Wills, I think, writes for the athletic. 

21:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you google her name and like baseball 2022 or something like that, there were like three pretty obvious distinct balls that she labeled and found all the games that were using them last year when we first talked to you prior to the season, we did basically like a regular season baseball primer and we asked you a lot about the rule changes that were coming up this year and you kind of walked through what effect you thought they would have. 

21:40
I'd like to do some sort of like a post-season primer here, because a lot of people who handicap baseball feel like it's a very different game in the postseason. I just wanted to pick your brain on some specific things. So in the postseason we don't see this in the regular season, where we get starters on like short rest, potentially pitchers in the bullpen who might not have been available in the regular season, that pitched back-to-back days, but now might be expected to pitch back-to-back-to-back days. And I'm curious if you have like an actual method for accounting for this, because it's a very small sample, even if we take like the history of baseball and the amount of people who've pitched on three days rest, and also, on top of that, whether you actually need to be able to quantify it, or is it just like your best guess might just be better than everyone else's best guess? 

22:34 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Okay, so there's no objective way to go about pricing literally anything Like. Of course there's all kinds of like, heuristics and best principles of doing anything, but even like a really popular book called I think it's just called the Book by Tom. 

22:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tango and Mitchell Whitman on baseball. Tom Tango, you know Tango Tiger, right? Yeah, it's called the Book. Yeah, it's the Book. I read that when I was younger. Yeah, something like that. 

22:59 - Berryhorse (Guest)
It's called the Book amongst baseball fans. I think it's called the book on baseball, but it's it's kind of like any. You don't need to be technical or mathematical. I think anybody who has a pulse could pick it up and understand, like most of what it's trying to communicate, and just basically goes through a series of like a hundred different things like that, like starters on short rest, platoon splits, how many play appearances? Do you need to be compelled that some picture is so unique they don't have the tune split like a bunch of stuff like this. Now, granted, I think it was written in like 2003 or something and a lot's evolved. 

23:30
But my point in bringing that book up is just like the process for that is unbelievably logical, really good to read through, but there's no guarantee that it's right or logical to look at things the way they do it, and same just I guess. 

23:42
First I'm answering like how would you even go about checking or answering that or attempting to price that, rob? 

23:49
And you know like there's plenty of all the typical people you'd think, like Russell Carlton, tango again, like plenty of people have looked at stuff like that For me, like almost always, unless it's one of like a very small number of MLB teams left to, in my opinion, are not so analytically great, but in 2023, like almost every team other than two or three is really pretty sharp and you almost can just outsource all of that work to them. 

24:17
In my opinion and this is unbelievably lazy, but assume they wouldn't be doing that unless they had their own models internally using data. I don't have they wouldn't be doing that unless they had their own models internally using data. I don't have that like I'm gonna assume if milwaukee pitches corbin burns on short rest instead of wade miley, that milwaukee's, who's a very sharp team, has done enough work to make sure that that's like a risk reward they're settled with and that, um, there's just like so much they know and do that like nobody on the internet even knows about, unless you've been inside a team like I think, one. Sorry, you're on too much of a tangent no, no, keep going. 

24:51
One of the things we talked about. Yeah, one of the things we talked about in the last one was how I think I almost accidentally stumbled into like betting what's called seam shifted wake pitchers before that phrase even existed because of stuff my computer is seeing and like reflecting a little further, honestly, because I'm kind of like everyone I think everyone's full of shit who claims they win a bunch, and like I kind of in retrospect too, especially going through the last few years and seeing like how hard I just grinded for six years or for sorry, for six months to like in that telegram, barely win 16 units and like just how hard it is to win and whereas, like before Twitter and that one year on Twitter were just like monster years for me in the baseball, I think a good chance. What was happening is kind of falling into the seam shift to wake stuff. One thing that was super intentional was the pitch framing stuff, um, and just like other kind of oddly specific analytical things like that led me into betting on teams, pitchers, players who had a lot of like one plus one equals three, going on like it. That led me like one team as an example would be like the 2016 Cubs or 2017 Astros like Cleveland back then. They're a bunch of the Tampa on the Twitter year where they were doing these two or three things I thought were really important and I thought it was a genius for discovering that. I thought was like the only reason I was winning. 

26:21
But in reality that stuff was all mispriced and underappreciated by the market. But me leading it led me to betting on those teams and they also had like 1700 different things I'd never even thought about that were also huge in a local edges that compounded to where, like, the pitch framing seems to have to wait. All this stuff might have been worth two or 3% when I thought it was seven, but it was showing up as seven to 10. Because of all these things I wasn't even aware of. And my point in all of that is just like there's so much going on in all of these teams to answer all of these questions that it's like, unless you're literally using the exact same data and everything they have, it's like such a losing battle to try and like. It's really pretty crazy, arrogant and hubris. Basically, you'd be saying like this team spending millions of dollars on analytics is making a bad decision and I'm smarter sitting here on my excel sheet trying to, like right, figure out what they should do. 

27:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But doesn't that exist for nfl? Like not to switch to nfl here, but how many times do we see the coaches make a bad decision for, for example, like for sure. 

27:20 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Yeah, this is a baseball. 

27:21
You know all that stuff, so you're saying mlb, mlb is far sharper in terms of analytics decisions yes, yeah, and especially like if you know the teams to like, you know there's yeah, I pay a lot of attention to like where these teams are putting money, what they're paying attention to like what. Like the next thing in analytics and saver is for all of them, um, and most playoff teams every year only get there because they're sharp. Obviously there's a couple who don't, but, like I would be comfortable, most of the teams anyways. That's kind of my opinion. Now, of course, like there's all you can go and look at like every pitcher ever, but it's, it's so person by person and I'm just gonna. 

27:59
And then the other thing like this shows up in so many sports is like, say, I mean you're almost with an individual player, like, say, madison Bumgarner or whatever. I mean I don't know how many times he pitched on three days rest in his career. I mean it literally might be four or five times, which is nothing but like even somehow you got a hundred or something. And it was like holy crap, he's so materially worse when he's on three days rest. It's like inarguable. 

28:27
This is a split that's also only describing that in the last 100 times it happens that that is what it was a huge penalty, but it doesn't ensure or guarantee that going forward it will, because the players themselves and the teams are also aware of that and maybe they've changed the rehabs like schedule, like like in golf, for example, like maybe people think like putting on different grass types is like this crazy different skill on Bermuda versus Pest, palum or Poa or whatever. 

28:52
And maybe by the time you have 25 rounds of strokes, gained data of that pitcher or, sorry, of that golfer putting on Poa and Bermuda, you can say, oh, this is so stark it's like inarguable. This golfer definitely has the skill of putting better on poa than bermuda. But so does that golfer now know that information he knows what to work on is going to prove it. So it's like by the time you have enough of a sample to say describe historically that this has been a thing, it's still not enough always to prescribe in the future what's going to happen or if that skill is going to persist so can you say with certainty basically, that? 

29:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
or I mean not doesn't have to be with certainty, but to the best of your knowledge, what you're basically saying is, for the layman's terms, all of these mlb teams are much smarter than the average person might give credit to. Would that be fair to say? 

29:41 - Berryhorse (Guest)
yeah, and like the average twitter fan on like managerial decisions freaks, like even an expectation. First off, yes, totally, they're way smarter. But also, even if they weren't, it's a smaller difference than people realize. Like, unless you're like truly trying to be stupid and like if houston threw jose or kitty instead of justin verlander because of something they saw in his eye last start, you know that was just obviously idiotic. Like everybody in the world knows Justin Verlander is better, but unless it's something like that, any of these things that are like remotely close or arguable are usually like max swing in a game, like three, five percent, usually less like, and of course, they can blow up and look horrible. But that's just one of like a thousand different things that could have happened and everybody on twitter freaks out, but like, yes, they're smarter, but it also matters less than people think usually well, yeah, I, I think just from my personal experience, this applies across many different sports as well, obviously. 

30:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, I'm known for being more of a hockey better, but I, you know, would see people engage pretty regularly on twitter about, like certain hockey metrics and it's I'm thinking in my head. I'm like, yeah, okay, you know this team lost because of X, y and Z or whatever, but the team also has access to so much more information that's privileged data that you, as a fan, are formulating opinions on like incomplete data. Basically right, like the expected goals movement in hockey and soccer. A lot, of, lot of people get go up in arms like this team deserve to win or deserve to lose because their expected goals is. This is why expected goals is like a very inexact metric. 

31:12
If you're not accounting for the pass before the shot, you know what are we doing here. The team is accounting for that stuff. They all know that internally and I think a lot of times as sports fans, there's like this data movement. We get to see all this like baseball is movement. We get to see all this like baseball is great. We get to see the stat cast data now and there's these projection systems, but like it's also incomplete. The teams have access to so much more generally speaking, and we're formulating our opinions on like an incomplete data set, basically, and they also know if you know why didn't they throw that good relief pitcher in the seventh? 

31:43 - Berryhorse (Guest)
well, they also know if he has a blister on his thumb that they're never going to talk about or say to the public, or if their girlfriend broke up with them last night or they didn't sleep or they're having a shit day, you know there's, yeah, lots more than well, this, this happened with toronto recently. 

31:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like they threw out jordan romano. Um, he had like a finger problem or like a broken nail and they they didn't play him for a couple games and then they threw him out and I believe he gave up like a game-winning homer to the Yankees in the ninth inning. And Toronto sports media is like, oh, how did John Schneider put Romano out there with like a busted finger? It's like, well, obviously he didn't have a busted finger anymore or he wouldn't have been in the game. Like I laugh. It's funny how like traditional media really skews the average fan's perspective on things as well and they just are like it's everyone's questioning every single decision that's made. And listen, I'm kind of part of the problem too when we get like the NFL fourth down scenarios. 

32:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Time, time, time, time out here, if we're going to. So baseball maybe, maybe, but to defend the average fan and all of us here, there is some god-awful decisions in all in all sports. Like to compare this to nhl even. Yeah, like, look at the deals. We're obviously myself, you zach, like leaf fans, like I get it. I get it. Like I know they have an analytics department. But like, look at some of the trades we've made. When you make, you make a trade and then you're like that is obviously going to be a bad trade ends up being a bad trade. You have all the lineup decisions. Two years ago, playoffs, matthews is getting 13 minutes of ice time in the full game. You have, obviously, nfl Teams are legitimately burning timeouts in the third quarter. There's nothing. I get it when you're like, oh well, you didn't know if jordan romano had a busted up finger. Like well, you know what, I didn't know you'd have to burn a timeout in the third quarter. 

33:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, that's for sure yes, definitely not coming out of the commercial break to decide whether or not you were going to kick a field goal or go for it, because now you've completely eliminated your edge that you had in going for it by burning that time out. 

33:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, and you know what else? I know for sure, you don't need extra room to punt, you don't need an extra five-yard penalty to get a better punt. So, like all these things, when we're talking about this now, the average guy is like, oh really, they must be really sharp in baseball. But like, of course they're going to think that they're not sharp because you see so many bad calls in NFL, where it's so much more obvious to the fan that it's not, that it's a bad call, yes, and then we're like, what are they doing? And then even NFL, you see, like players, there was one yesterday's game at the half, right before the half kenneth walker ran out of bounds. 

34:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He ran out of the clock now it ended up being enough. 

34:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Nothing because the giants took a penalty on the next play for running into the kicker, but that play by kenneth walker was probably like worth like 1.2 points I think nfl's a different breed. 

34:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I've talked to eric eager about this a lot before right, and he's consulted for many teams when it was with pff and now with sumer sports and coaches in the nfl are basically just watching tape non-stop. It's like quick, like let me see this, let me see this, let me. There's not a lot that's being put into decision making from a coach's perspective in the nfl. Like look at ron rivera this past week. Right, they tie, they they're. They basically had a chance to go for two. 

35:06 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Obviously need to go for two. 

35:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They ask him after the game why didn't you go for two? And he's like my offense was tired. I'm like they were. They were tired enough to score on fourth down to almost tie the game. Like you have one play, you're at an eight point under, an eight and a half point underdog in the game. Go for. Every fan knows this, yet the coach himself doesn't, because they're so fixated on tape. Mlb, though, I would imagine, is just very different, because you're just mired in numbers and like you have access, like as fans, like, like, like barry horse was saying here, like we don't know the ins and outs of a team, we don't know if. Like, oh, why didn't they use this pitcher in the eighth inning? Well, also not real time, that's. 

35:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're not making the decision in like one second. You get the time to say, okay, I'm bringing this pitcher in, and so to that I'll give it credit that it should be more efficient. It's not real time. 

35:55 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I want to say like the real answer to Rob's wonderful question is like if there's enough weird things going on, like a pitcher on short rest with like 17 other weird factors that are already kind of like difficult for me to naturally price, you don't have to bet every game like I like, unless the price is egregious. And I really want to look into like why it is. And if it's like I make a game 160 and it's 130 because people are discounting this picture being on short rest, then I'll spend time to see like okay, maybe 160 is wrong, but how much could this really be worth? And if I struggle to really make any way where it could be lower than 145, then I could bet the game, but like I'm not. If it's like gonna be crazy work and I have to like bend all these numbers and do all this work to convince myself it's an edge, there's probably better games to bet do you think that staying on top of uh news is like a more valuable skill set in the playoffs? 

36:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I don't know how much stuff ends up being public, but there was someone that I was going back and forth with on Twitter before through DMs that was talking about the fact that they think that they could just beat baseball playoffs by like keeping up with the news, because there's so much more possible information out there that could affect the game. So, for example, like a manager making a random comment about um, you know, potentially the starting pitcher being on a shorter leash or things like that, just from your experience, do you think that that it's, you know, keeping on top of the news is a more valuable skill set in the playoffs? 

37:25 - Berryhorse (Guest)
my instinct would say it's the opposite, like it's it's really the only time of the season where you truly know for sure Every team is doing everything to win that game and not saying like any baseball teams ever intentionally try and lose games. But there's definitely some where they they might like cluster rest three stars in one game or like clearly be planning to work some middle relief bullpen pitcher into that game who's you know meaningfully worse than what a normal bullpen would be. Um, and obviously those are pretty valuable and there's just you know whatever almost more than double the teams in the regular season and way more games. So that would be more valuable and less watched and analyzed. Obviously like the second, to the extent something like the manager saying this pitcher is on short leash, which I would also challenge, is like that's also probably for a reason and probably helping them win For 28 of the 30 teams. I would trust them. 

38:20
It's usually not even the manager's decision. They're more like puppets. But even if you thought that was an edge or whatever, like to the extent it was the second, it's public and obviously watched by 10 times the number of eyeballs and ears during the playoffs. It gets priced in. So I would probably say the opposite, but obviously, like, information is always important and everything, but probably manager interviews are not the best, but honestly there's like plenty in the regular season where people aren't grinding all those always and there's, you know, some stuff that's like worth a lot with a real player that's not priced in the next morning I think one of the issues is you also have to take the manager's words at face value if you're, like you're now getting into, like the deciphering I know all the liars there's, there's. 

39:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I have a list I do for nfl draft as well. 

39:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know which gms are out there lying publicly and which gms are honest. But yeah, that's, that's one of the inherent challenges. Um, we started this interview by talking clayton kershaw. Johnny brought up madison bum, gardner um player experience, clutch performances, anti-clutch performances these are often highlighted every single year by traditional media. This guy's built for the playoffs. He elevates his game. This guy fails in the playoffs consistently. Does that factor into your decision making or modeling at all when it comes to playoff baseball? 

39:46 - Berryhorse (Guest)
the one kind of quirky, weird thing like that that has shown to have something. And look, I'm only saying this because it's written about publicly, obviously, hopefully it's obvious. If there were like a few silver bullets that I thought were an edge and not priced in the market, like clutchiness or playoff experience or whatever, I would not be sharing on a podcast with a thousand people listening, um. But the one thing that is and this is already priced in, so don't think you're going to hear this win because of this but just to account for is there has to me and there's again 10 000 different processes to do all this and there's no guarantee any of them are right or the most logical. But in my opinion, if you follow, like russell carlton's work, he has kind of like I don't know if you two are familiar with what's called the log five method yeah, like you can price how, how likely a plate appearance is to end on this strikeout, based on the strikeout rate of the pitcher and hitter and the platoon split and you know, possibly you know 50 other things, but making your best estimate on the baseline of the players, it looks like for pitchers whose team clinched early in September, there is something like on the order of a 1% uptick in walk rate and 1% downtick in strikeout rate for the pitchers on teams who clinched early. It's almost never on its own something to bet a game just knowing that, but that's like the one thing for clutch I mean. No, like there's. 

41:13
There's certain non-random, like truly predictive things where players can materially change their like approach and overall skill profile in a plate appearance. 

41:25
That might be, you know, bases loaded two outs in the ninth inning or whatever, where they're playing more for a ball in play or, you know whatever the situation run around third with less than two out, you know all that stuff. 

41:35
Um, but that's just like a skill change in the player. 

41:39
Um, and, and in a lot of those like high leverage moments, the best players get kind of an adverse selection. Like if Mike Trout's up in the eighth inning with bases loaded two outs, he's definitely going to face the other team's best pitcher every single time, like 100%, and frequently be pitched in like the shadow of the zone and not throw pitches versus. Like Michael Stefanich on the Angels is probably not as likely to have the closer come in early in the eighth inning for him and he's probably get more pitches to hit. So, um, there's that, but in terms of like, almost like a character judgment of like who's built for the moment, who can handle the pressure, uh, again, you can go through the usual list of suspects russell, carlton, tom tango all these guys google uh whatever mlb clutch performance or whatever. All you know, the top 20 known saver matricians have written plenty about this and basically no, if, if the way you asked that question was like does this guy have balls or not for the play in that type of like machismo type way that people talk about? 

42:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
no, so this has been the hardest one for me, one of the hardest ones for me in all of sports. Uh, and again, the old clutch factor. Yeah, I'll remind people you can see by my body stature I'm not a professional athlete, nor have I ever come close to being a professional athlete, but I did play like rep sports when I was growing up and and sometimes you just are surrounded by guys that you feel are generally going to cave under pressure, like I'm a big believer in anti-clutch, if that's I feel like all those players are not in the show right now there's also like plenty of those for for whom they're just like missing a bit, like it's a material skill thing, rather than like they're mentally weak or fragile human beings like. 

43:22 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I'm all about calling greg norman all the bad roads in the book for plenty of other reasons, but as a golfer I think people overly shit on him for choking Like I think it's 96 masters, the main one against Valdo, but like he was fighting like a wicked double cross weeks before that and kind of like got hot and timing his hands for three days to even have that lead. Like there was a material flaw in his swing that just got exposed under pressure. It wasn't like you know, his head getting in front of himself or him not being able to handle it or beating out of his shed. Like that happens to everybody, including michael jordan covey, whoever on the name of clutch team, like anybody who's not lying um. From my perspective and understanding of chemistry, biology, everything but don't they? 

44:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
okay. So people have done research on this. Now, I'm not sure the caliber of the research. It hasn't been the level of stuff that, like we currently might do in sports betting. 

44:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But, like the, the players who are the most clutch are simply just either no sample size or the best players, which just adds exactly yeah yeah, the the no sample size is always going to be an issue, because you're just not going to be presented with enough opportunities to have an at-bat for your team to win the game. It's just never going to happen. I'm a big believer in sample size to justify opinions, but there's a lot of things that are going to happen Over the course of an NFL season. Let's say we're modeling nfl. We're never gonna have like a real enough sample size on every player to know exactly what they are. But you can see enough over the course of three or four weeks to be like this guy's having a great season, he's gonna be a great quarterback, he's gonna stink, he's gonna like there is, there's still something there. You know what I'm getting at, but so you're saying for NFL even. 

45:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
For everything. But was Tom Brady clutch? Because he was just Tom Brady and he was good as well? Because I know I get it, he did outperform? The guy was obviously clutch, yeah, but was that just because he was a great player? 

45:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Generally speaking, the guys who are going to be clutch, I would agree are probably going to be more talented. 

45:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Good player-coach combo as well. 

45:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's a lot that could go into it. 

45:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's a ton that could go into it Anything that anyone else could look at to get an edge on the playoffs right now, like, for example? Would you say, like maybe the series prices are a little weaker than the straight games, I would assume. So where would people be able to bet that can give them a little edge for MLB right now, postseason? 

45:50 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Stop for the best price using Betstamp. There you go. Yeah, I mean obviously anything good. I'm not going to say. 

46:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, even just like, for example, the series prices, do you bet series prices heavily? 

46:09 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Sometimes, but almost always, if those are real edge, it's basically as big of an edge with less big to bet money lines. Baseball money lines are pretty low big, so those are almost always better to bet and definitely on futures, you're almost always better off rolling over series prices. Like the only reason basically ever to bet those futures prices would just be to like flex for your ego the ticket that you called it October one. Who's going to win? Or whatever you bet it. 

46:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough, okay, so who? Who's a good team that you think right now is undervalued versus market? For? Not, maybe. Actually, maybe it's going to give who's a good team that you think right now is undervalued versus market. Actually, maybe it's going to give away an edge we can't even give it. What can you give? How about this? Who's a player that can win World Series MVP right now? If we want to go for a long shot, dunk. Who's good value. Who's your bet? 

47:00 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Long shot. 

47:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It doesn't have to be a long shot. Whatever it could be. 

47:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Ronaldonald lacuna you think that just off the top yeah, we won't have you run the numbers? 

47:07 - Berryhorse (Guest)
but someone who you think would be a valuable yeah, I mean I, I I would say, you know, because of the uh um top end rotation I'd say atlanta and because of home field, which is that's another thing. Back to sorry, I'm fine talking about this because it's really like well understood. I feel like, and just every year I bet more home teams than away teams and like it's not really a secret, like obviously I was willing to put it all on the telegram, like people can see, I bet like a proportionate, disproportionate number of home teams. I think because of like some things changing in football, people just like I know this is nothing to do with world series, mvp, but it came to my mind. 

47:46
So whatever, um, people think like home field must just be disappearing in every sport, I mean baseball, home field has been 54 percent like every single year since before world one, when planes didn't even exist, since before the wright brothers, like I, I'm not really compelled to believe that like flying first class and staying at the four seasons has anything to do with home field, and actually it's kind of interesting to at least check that off for baseball. I mean, I guess you could argue something about the hand-to-hand combat of like moving another man in football could be related to sleep or rest or something I don't know, but like knowing that that, like the quality of travel basically has nothing to do with baseball, home field is probably pretty helpful for that. But anyways, that's why Atlanta needs to be a material favorite over the Dodgers, and Alvarez is a switch hitter, so we'll have more of a opportunity advantage throughout the whole series. 

48:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Hey, every now and then in baseball playoffs you also get some hand-to-hand combat, If we remember Jose Bautista and Rugned Odorore that was a game that was a regular season. 

48:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, no, no that that was a regular season game. It was a right. 

48:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then they just end up playing in the play the texas game. 

48:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The texas versus toronto game was a game that was the jose bat flip, bat flip, yeah deep left field. No doubt about it. Yeah, I, I, I remember watching that game. That actually might be the most I ever sellied for a sporting game. I'll tell you this. The one that I did remember was the Edwin one against the Orioles. Yeah that was big too, the walk-off, but that Bautista one man, everyone was so mad because of that absolute job call. 

49:23
We just got the half inning before. If you guys remember it I think it was Shinsu Chu on Texas, if I remember this correctly he basically just got a free run because the ump just didn't call the play dead. No, so what? 

49:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
happened was this was actually ruled correctly, but Toronto fans weren't having it. In the moment, Russell Martin went to throw the ball back to the pitcher and it hit. Shinshu Tu's back. And it's on the catcher actually at that point, and it was just a live play and the runner scored from third and no one had any idea what was going on. I think John Gibbons is the manager of the Jays. He sauntered out there very slowly and it was the right call. 

50:01
But because of that it was the right call, but because of that it created the environment of like this, this hostile environment. 

50:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So when that home run happened, absolutely and that and that home run was off of two errors, I believe. Yeah, it was error, error. And then bautista, and then he bat flipped, wow, wow that's shivers. 

50:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually I don't know if we could tell that I have goosebumps right now, but I actually do thinking about that. 

50:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And he was. He was always like a little bit of a feisty guy, bautista, but like the passion in that flip. 

50:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, now it's very commonplace, right, like the bat flip is just like a thing that it happens in like a regular season home run. Now, when the game is like eight one for a team, a guy flips a bat after. 

50:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Every year there's actually two bat flips that end up being deep pop-outs. There's always like over under one and a half per year. Now the guy flips. 

50:53 - Berryhorse (Guest)
A dual Herrera is the best at that. Yeah, he bat, flips every single one. 

50:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, Barry Horse, we went through some MLB. We also want to talk NFL College football too, I guess. You know what I want to talk, talk, some of the footballs as well. So, first off, how's NFL going for you betting-wise, I know you've been sending some second halves. 

51:14 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Yeah, literally all I've bet is Baltimore last week pregame and then literally what I put in there NFL like I mean I think the stuff I put in there is a favorite to win, but I don't plan my life around needing that to win to make a living. 

51:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Why'd you bet Baltimore? 

51:27 - Berryhorse (Guest)
God bless everybody who does. 

51:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Deshaun Watson out. Oh yeah, steam chasing. Some injury news, or what? 

51:35 - Berryhorse (Guest)
No, I bet the close. It's a very strong DTR opinion that I'm not ashamed to share publicly. You just don't think he's good. I never think the market will get that enough. So yeah, well, you know what I'm I've kind of want. 

51:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You want to know I I here's what I've noticed might be the only game this year. 

51:51 - Berryhorse (Guest)
My sorry to cut you off, rob, but like truly like I I mean I think your audience probably understands better than any of like sportsman stuff but like I can cuss right, yeah, go for it. God fucking bless you if you want to like grind like real nfl pregame, to like live on, like you know, there's no secrets in that stuff. So my only thing I think I have a chance to have an edge on would be, like you know, I can talk to you about rice's third string quarterback right now. So on, like the rookie college quarterbacks and stuff, like I have, I feel like a decently above average chance of knowing who can play against like a real nfl defense. And like I think probably the market misunderstood just how much literally a different sport preseason games are and like thought he was competent in the preseason this is what I want to get at right like. 

52:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So this is, this is um I. I use this word a lot. I don't know why I say epidemic all the time among sports bettors, but it kind of is like every even aiden o'connell starting this week, right, I got so many messages about aiden o'connell. He looked great in pre-season whatever. 

52:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Exactly like derrick carr. By the way, if you guys didn't even pick this up, he literally looks like derrick carr. The stashes was getting me. He's the same number like. If you just put that highlight film from last year, you'd be like that's Derek Carr throwing People get so infatuated with young quarterbacks that look good in preseason. 

53:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It happened last year with Skylar Thompson for the Dolphins, who had like a great preseason, and then these guys start games and like guess what, they're not ready to take on a NFL first string defense. Like it's very, very different and I was on Baltimore last week as well, but yeah, I, I don't know what it is. I don't really have the understanding of why people like it's not like a ton of people even watch NFL preseason but we get a lot of young backup quarterbacks now. It's very different than it was 10-15 years ago where, like the backups were like these career journeymen and you knew that coming in there was going to be like they were going to suck Brian Hoyer but they weren't going to throw like four interceptions or something. 

53:53
We're going to manage a game Like that's what they were going to do. Ryan Fitzpatrick could come in as a backup. Like a million times he's going to manage the game. 

54:07
Fitz was probably honestly started more games as a starter. Yeah, he did, he had. He had a long career. But nowadays we got a lot of these. Backups are just like these rookies or young players who come in completely inexperienced and yet like the market seems to like them more, maybe because they have a higher ceiling, but they also have a extremely low floor relative to like the career journey way more important than that really low median like. 

54:26 - Berryhorse (Guest)
If you just do any basic bayesian process of like what a fifth string rookie would do three weeks after, like first playing an nfl game, it's like staggering. So yeah, I mean, they're just, they're the sexy woman in a red dress that's fun for people to overrate. 

54:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know yeah, so you're saying your edge right now is more on the college football side. 

54:48 - Berryhorse (Guest)
We'll get into that in a second, but I know notice you started to cut you off, but I actually just to make the point it's not so much that the nfl closing lines are so like staggeringly perfect, it's just the number of games. Honestly, college is pretty efficient too. If you really wanted to bet on Saturday and say you want to lay a favorite who's 13 everywhere, if you were willing to lay 13 and a half, you can bet real money on these college football games on Saturday. It's just more like there's four times the number of games every week In NFL. A really nice bet might literally like in three weeks I bought her. Four weeks. 

55:29
However, it's been high Baltimore and you know there's other been decent bets. Obviously that I'm just not betting, but like say that you had three 55% bets a week in NFL for you know, count the playoffs, call it 20 weeks, 60 games on. I don't know what you think you're gonna go like if you're amazing 35 and 25, so you're five bad beats away from 30 and 30 and losing money. So it's just like I just don't have enough bets in the nfl to really like focus on it. It'd be, you know, if I was like a retired billionaire. I still think you can definitely be profitable and have it be like a plus ev hobby but it's hard to rely on for like earning yeah, fair point College has more games. 

56:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it's 14 games on this one. 

56:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, no, 100%. I totally get it Like now, of the 14 games this week, I'm probably going to bet like eight to 10 in some capacity. 

56:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, if you go, total spread money. 

56:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Total spread, whatever. 

56:15 - Berryhorse (Guest)
But for me it's like, yeah, I should also start a cut shot Like I meant more like bet a lot, you can make so much money, you can make a comfortable US living on props and stuff, like of course. 

56:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like really good living. So it's a matter of perspective, right? Because I don't think that I'm capable of beating Sunday full limits NFL. In fact I think I've proven that over the course of, like the last three years, doing pizza buffet on Sunday mornings 11 am. I'm basically like a minus I don't know exactly one and a half to two percent ROI betting into 100k limits at Pinnacle on Sunday morning. So that's not my bread and butter. But nowadays, like Monday NFL sides, it's not hard to get down 70 to 100k. I'm not that's what I'm betting. I don't want to put it out there but between pinnacle circa some offshores, some other outs that are available, um, you could get that amount down on sides. Totals are a different story. 

57:17 - Berryhorse (Guest)
It's a way smaller market on mondays but you can really get out ahead of a lot of these line moves with significant liquidity if you try, and I mean only on the spread, only on the spread yes yeah, I mean for sure, and but like even not to keep going back and forth, but like even for me I'm just kind of a little scared of like even eight games a week is like you know whatever. Uh, 20 weeks, 160 bets, like yeah, I get it, I don't know what you're gonna go 90 and 70. That's again. It's 10 bad beats away from losing money. 

57:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It freaks me out you could basically have one baseball bet per day and then that would equal the same amount of games. 

57:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But not gonna argue that. I think part of it is an ego thing to be, if I'm being completely honest. There's just so many people who are like, oh, don't bet the nfl, you can't beat the nfl, that it's like I really just want to win and excel at this sport. That's the honest truth and it's also a passion for the sport. I think it's just way easier to bet something when you enjoy it and you're passionate about it, like I'm sure I could make way more money betting NBA than I do NFL, but I'm not an NBA fan, I'm not interested in it. So it would feel like such a grind whereas I I work really hard. 

58:28
And look you, you put in tons of hours on MLB and even you mentioned it, barry Horse. Like okay, 16 units for the telegram chat, a little bit more for yourself if you're only giving out half the bets or whatever. But that's a large amount of investment for what you're getting back. But it probably still feels worth it because you care about MLB. That I mean you. You correct me if I'm wrong, but it probably still feels worth it because you care about MLB that much. I mean you correct me if I'm wrong, but it probably feels worth it because of your love for the sport. 

58:52 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Yeah, I mean it's also like it's a good. I mean it's a real market, like that's a you know, 20, 30, 40 units, whatever you win. That's like a good earning baseball. Yeah, totally, absolutely Okay. 

59:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So second half market I want to talk about specifically because I actually didn't know you did second halves prior to. We didn't talk about this in our first interview. I didn't know this about you in the past. Is this a new thing or has this been something you've been doing for a long time, long time, okay so what-? 

59:19 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Yeah, I've had a bunch of stuff. 

59:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What made you want to take a run at the second half market? 

59:26 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I mean basically the same as any sport. Like you know, you can make a number on it, you can bet real money on it and I think I could look at the numbers and see they could be priced differently. So if things move, I feel like there can be an edge and I've seen them move before and so you know also, just like logically, you're gonna let me watch 30 minutes of the game and then bet it again and just like as dumb and simpleton as that sounds like, that's enticing okay, let's walk through the main differences. 

59:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Obviously there's a shorter time span, so, like, when you're betting MLB, you can pick a time to send you're, you're sending out, the pick out into, like a mature market with second half lines. It's very competitive in a short amount of time. Um, so like are do you encounter any issues where you know you get beat to numbers more regularly? Do you find it more competitive? 

01:00:18 - Berryhorse (Guest)
let's start at that yeah, they move quick, but like the stuff I give out is as mature as a halftime could be, you know, like it's everyone in the world's up and everything's still in calm. That's kind of the only point of the teller. I mean, I like I could give questionably followable things in there, like where three places in the world have the price, but it just doesn't seem like that would be delivering much value. 

01:00:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You think it's easier to find an edge on the like at the? 

01:00:41 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I guess the spread at the, I guess the spread at the half or the total. Uh, depends on the sport, but yeah, I mean total, just logically. I mean Chris is taking like five times more on sides at halftime. 

01:00:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What's the, what's the which I? 

01:00:57 - Berryhorse (Guest)
disagree for sure with that gap. I mean, you look at my results in the uh baseball. If I'm, if I'm up like 16 units, I think I'm up like 30 something on size and down like 15 something in total. So I I I think people like I don't know, like the average bookmaker who has like triple or quintuple the limits for size is probably overestimating the gap between the two. So are you? 

01:01:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
genuinely watching the game and then like figuring out all right, this is, this is what's in this game like, or is it more model based, like math? 

01:01:26 - Berryhorse (Guest)
no, I mean there's so little information that can be learned from 30 minutes of football. Um, I mean everything. 

01:01:37
Well, okay, the model word is like like a lot of people talk about like kind of these two, two buckets of objective, math-based models, or subjective like pen and pencil, like our friends Boston Red or Eddie Walls I think you had on this probably. It seems like a false dichotomy to even make. I promise no metaphysics on this one. Every subject is an object and every object is a subject. And whether I'm running advanced machine learning models and these artificial neural networks on silicon chips in some data center in Virginia from Google or whatever, or any walls or Boston Red, whether they know it or not, are all running neural networks inside their brain that just passed like a four and a half billion year rigorous selection process for our brains to be as good as they are right now. All of us are always making models of everything, every second of the day, and I'm not trying to be overly philosophical, but how do you make a number on anything? It's always a model. I mean, of course you could define a rigorous machine learning statistics-based model or whatever. I'm going to close my eyes and grab for my cup of water here using a bunch of models. That's all me just making a bunch of predictions and of course the models would break if I went and grabbed it and couldn't find my water cup. All of that's probably going on too much of a tangent, but my point is like everything matters. So yeah, there's a lot of just like basic Bayesian In an NFL game. 

01:03:15
Say it closed 48 and home team seven point favorite, total 48. And the first half played out where the home team the favorite received the opening kickoff, meaning the dog is going to receive it. In the first half played out where the home team the favorite received the opening kickoff, meaning the dog is going to receive it. In the second half, there's a very high chance that it's probably going to come like 24 and 3.5 or 24 juice under 24 juice over maybe 3 juice or 4 juice. But that's what the price is going to be and usually what it should be. 

01:03:46
But there's so many caveats of, like, the types of teams in college. I don't think I'm really building anything up if you watch any of their games they played this year. But like it's not really a secret, james franklin really loves covering for penn state um and so like. There's tons of different coaching things. Obviously injuries are just like material facts. The different coaches coach to in different ways. Like you know, we're recording this, I think two days after a kansas city game that the market's getting a lot better at coaching that guy in the second half. On pricing that guy, um, but like andy forever has basically been like an auto under bet with a lead in the second half, um, and like different things like that what do you think on that slide there? 

01:04:29
not much. 

01:04:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's a good, good move yeah, such a move, such a good I think the I think the under already won by then, but yeah yeah, the under is guaranteed. 

01:04:36
I mean unless it somehow they kick the field goal and then uh went to ot or something. Maybe jets tie it with it and then miss the extra point, who knows, uh, I going to say on the under there. I actually texted a couple buddies right before the play and I said I didn't say Mahomes, to be fair, the exact text I have it. But I said Pacheco's smart enough that he's going to go down at the one if he picks this up. And everyone was like no, he's not going to go down. Everyone was going nuts. Obviously, mahomes picks it up, goes down. Absolute, 100%, correct. 

01:05:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But it was probably also like it was probably coaching as well. 

01:05:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was before a timeout. They obviously told him. 

01:05:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They were very much reminded to go down and like I cannot handle the fixed game stuff. Like it really I'm not putting it past like individual, like little things possibly to be fixed in sports, like it's it's within the realm of possibility, but like the whole like scripted game thing, when players get injured it's like yeah, they scripted it so that this player was going to tear his acl and miss, miss. Like what are we doing here? 

01:05:38 - Berryhorse (Guest)
people like that really frustrates me very horse I uh, life's very short and you gotta pick what you're gonna care about, and that's not one for me. 

01:05:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, I should take, I should take that advice. Uh, I should take that advice. This is a very personal question, just out of curiosity. So, uh, you're betting second halves, you're modeling second halves for nfl and college football. Um, obviously, in order to win at that, you'd have to be better at pricing those than than these typical standard sports book pricing. Have you ever thought to actually approach like a market-making sports book and offer your model as a service similar to, like the deck prism type of a situation that that seems like it could be very lucrative and like pay you in perpetuity over time? 

01:06:28 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Possibly. I mean, now that you bring it up, like I could consider what the economics would look like, but in my head it doesn't seem crazy expensive for them to get to like a decent price and like. It's not like I think I'm a massive favorite to win on those, but it's not like I have some 20% ROI on betting every game every week where I've found some hidden gem no one knows about. It's not that, it's just some things are minus 110, and they should be minus 125 or 130, and I bet them. I guess it would help them. But I also don't think they're really getting crushed on those, because if it's there for me to bet, that means everybody in the world's had a chance, and so if I'm the only one doing it, you know the cost of my bet is probably close to what they would pay me for, but I could be wrong. 

01:07:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know I was just curious. There's nothing. There was. No, I was not angle shooting or anything, they're just general uh sentiment because a lot I know that a lot of people have been trying to model second half uh in the past few years to actually source deals with sports books because they feel like there could maybe be some uh better opening lines on those second halves. I honestly I'm in like the point now where I I do like live watch alongs for every monday night and thursday night football game. You were actually part of one um or showed up in one um last week as well. 

01:07:42
But I've gotten to the point now where I'm basically running a version of a model in my head where I can very easily price the second half line based, like I talk about this, like at the two minute warning. Like this is what the second half line should be. If we see any differences, we'll like go and bet it and it almost always falls like right in and around that number. So it doesn't. It does seem like it's. It's pretty easy to arrive at a standard price. I'm just wondering if there's, like you know you mentioned not really watching the games or like finding that as an edge, but I'm wondering if there is actually something to that in terms of I don't think I said that. 

01:08:21 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Okay, I agree with you on that, yeah, okay. 

01:08:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Or or or maybe I misunderstood, but it seems to me that that's somewhere where now somebody might be able to pick up on something that may not be reflected in, like the quote unquote algorithm for the second half. 

01:08:39 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Agreed, but at the same time like, unless it's a material change in information, like an injury, I mean, yeah, there's just like if, if one team's just blowing the other off the ball, like it's very an NFL, at least I mean you guys know. Like, yeah, but there's some big difference in in coaches and quarterbacks, but like all these rosters, from player five through 40 are like they're all freak athletes and pretty similar and some are like better organized because of the coaches and stuff. But like most of these players are like relatively close to each other. There's like five players who matter on each team. If that and so like if there's a half of one blowing the other off the ball, like who's going to be some psychological wizard to tell through their screen that that's going to persist in the second? Or even like how much that's worth if it is going to persist. Is that worth 1.5 points, seven points, half a point, you know, um, but yeah, I mean I definitely watch everything a couple questions for you here real quick on the college football side. 

01:09:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Here number one do you think actually watching college football and knowing all the players helps you big time with the nfl draft? 

01:09:51
like betting the nfl draft yes, because I've heard conflicting opinions here a lot of times. People like watch college and they they think players who are better in college or would be fits for the nfl should go higher. And essentially what they do is they rank their own mocks based on how good the players are. You kind of fail to cap model the way the teams are going to actually take the players. So what do you think on that? 

01:10:16 - Berryhorse (Guest)
no, I hope this doesn't come across as like condescending or from my high horse, but that the draft betting has just never been that interesting, for it's hard to get crazy amounts and if you can, it torches all accounts and it's just like never been really interesting to me. But like, yeah, I mean, if I get something good, um, and I have friends who have accounts that they don't mind putting it in, like I might as well make money, but it's not a fair enough money. 

01:10:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Do you do college football futures? 

01:10:43 - Berryhorse (Guest)
rarely what's again same thing you're almost you're on all these things like. There's a couple of futures. I've made um in my life but like and obviously they're fun, but like they're, it's almost always better. Just roll over money lines, almost always like. It gives you optionality, almost always going to be equal or better price and I just always prefer that and way better limits okay, we can get back to sports if we have to, but uh, obviously we're about six months back. 

01:11:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You gave an epic bitcoin rant. Went uh pretty viral within the clips, as well as on our podcast actually our second greatest viewed interview on youtube and if you add the audio, we have to check the numbers. I think you might. 

01:11:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I looked, I looked at it. Right now you're barry horse's number two, slightly trailing uh matthew trenhale. Wow, okay, it's cool you're on the. You're on the mount rushmore, I don't think anyone would deny that, uh, barry, but yeah, a little bit behind trenhale right now I just took a brief, um, a brief look at, kind of. 

01:11:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, we obviously we know roughly where the price is Hasn't changed much. So it went up a little, went down a little. It's back kind of steady, right where we were last time we chatted with you at the beginning of the season. So what I wanted to do is actually A first off. I'm assuming you're still bullish on Bitcoin, let's get this out of the way first. 

01:12:01
Okay, yes, so we had some crazy reactions to the last pod in some of the comments, so I'm going to read out a couple of them here and then we'd love to get your response back. Okay, okay, number one. Anybody who says this is in regards to your Bitcoin rent for anyone who's clear listening Okay. Anybody who says stuff like that just wants people to buy so the value of their own holdings go up. Either that or they just have no concept of how a currency actually works. So it's a two part question, two part comment. What's? 

01:12:35 - Berryhorse (Guest)
that person's name. 

01:12:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a Ulster 10, 11. Oh, we're calling out people here 10, 11. 

01:12:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well it's, it's public, okay, this is a public youtube comment on the last video we said so for that question, I think, um, what a lot of people that, and I I vehemently disagree with this. But what a lot of people do think is, like anyone who has a lot of bitcoin or appears to have a lot of bitcoin, these big whales, people who are very early on, like people, think that they're just like greedy and need people to go in for their exit liquidity. So what are your thoughts on that as like a counterpoint to buying Bitcoin now? 

01:13:11 - Berryhorse (Guest)
So like roughly, how many people do you think listen to the first episode? 

01:13:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So the YouTube viewership which is public right now is roughly 5000 views listenership. I can't really comment on that, but it's a substantial amount of people. 

01:13:26 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Okay, let's say there's more on that. But like, if, if we're really going to be real, like how many people? I know you have really loyal listeners, but I don't know what number is going to listen to every minute of my rambling spiels on all this stuff and I know Bitcoin triggers, so I don't know what number actually listened to that whole part. Let's just be generous and say like 5,000. I feel like I'm being unbelievably generous and this is like a crazy. I always get this confused. If it'd be left skewed or right skewed, but like obviously the mean would be way bigger than the median, but if you just took, like the net worth of those, let's say, 5,000 people. 

01:14:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tom, we did put a clip. The Bitcoin rant was in the Twitter clip and that alone had like 50K impressions. Not again, not sure how many see it, but I think it was above 5,000. 

01:14:09 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I'm just trying to roughly estimate for Ulster 1011, the number of people and, like the max, if I'm really generous how much impact these rants could have. Let's just for the math, say 5000 people and let's say like something like an average net worth of a million. Obviously the median would be much lower, but I'm guessing you have, you know, being some sports betting podcast there's a lot of successful people probably that drag that up and let's say, somehow my words in the best case, compelled every single one of them to put every dollar to their name into Bitcoin in order to inflate my bags. It would be something approximating like $5 billion for 5,000 times a million, and the fully diluted market cap of Bitcoin is something hovering around like 500 billion. So in the absolute best case, I might be inflating my bags materially through converting these 5,000 people something like 8%, which Bitcoin, since we started this podcast, has probably moved 1% in either direction. I have no idea, and so that's not my intention at all. 

01:15:17
As for like not understanding how the currency worked, I agree, I'm 28 years old and you know I've spent the last nine years, the majority of most of my years, learning about money and basically come to the conclusion, you know, like all 8 billion of us could spend every waking hour of the rest of all of our lives trying to answer the question what is money? 

01:15:37
And would fall woefully short, but I'm definitely on that pursuit and so I love learning about that. 

01:15:42
I do humbly think I understand, probably more than the average person, but I appreciate the feedback and, honestly, like I'm saying, like I'm just in that or, like you know, it's just for gain, I mean it's really like a losing proposition for me to talk about it as strongly and as often as I do, almost like a reverse free roll. 

01:16:04
Like you know, if people do find their journey down the Bitcoin rabbit hole like enriching in their lives whether that's because the US dollar exchange rate goes up or because it helps teach them more about personal responsibility, whatever else there's awesome, awesome, awesome messages of thank yous that I get from that, but like it's not I've yet to receive a check for doing that Like I don't get like financial value from doing this and there's plenty to lose. Like absolutely I, I like all walking humans, I feel like complete and utter if I lead anybody in the wrong direction on anything at my words, and so, like you know, there's there's plenty of ways where, like, I'm not going to get max credit or reward for orange filling people, uh, and have plenty of ways to, you know, have it bite me. So. 

01:16:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, Respect on that. I think that the argument is not necessarily even that you specifically impact the price. It's more just like early adopters of Bitcoin. There's some people with massive followers like would be able to influence millions and then just like the concept of that being the exit liquidity. Like I said, though, I don't agree with that. 

01:17:16 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Well, it's also like just if somebody's dedicated their life to fitness and thinks everybody should exercise and eat well, and it goes around trying to tell people you should exercise and eat well, here's how you can do it. Are they like scammers trying to pump their back? 

01:17:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But that more people working out doesn't make you healthier. More people buying bitcoin inflates the price, making you richer. Whatever, we'll move on from this. I actually, like I said, I'm arguing now, aside that I don't believe in, so I don't feel right doing this. I'm just you're playing devil's advocate. I'm saying what this person would be saying and what a lot of people have told me as an argument, but I don't believe this, so I don't want to be that guy. 

01:17:58 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I don't want to be the guy. My final statement is just don't buy it, move on and don't watch it exactly all right. 

01:18:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So second, we had another one here from stacy silverman 6366 all right, keep in mind this was six months ago, right after the pod. All right, and this one I've actually heard variations of this texted to me from like people I know as well. All right, so this one is not just this person, this was at least a five person opinion. I hurt my own ears from my outburst of laughter when he said he had every dollar in bitcoin. Come on, bro, it's astonishing how people can be so smart in some areas and just oblivious all capitals in others. I think Bitcoin will do fine, but there's certainly a real risk it gets annihilated. Imagine torching tens of millions and being left with crumbs because you self-impose the need to stake your entire net worth on a system. It's so unnecessary. And, to add additional context, like I mentioned, a lot of people did text me about this. It wasn't necessarily that they disagreed with the opinion on bitcoin. It was that they disagreed with the hundred percent of net worth in it being an ev move for life. 

01:19:13 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Okay, um, so, like, on the topic of all of us having different models, like some of the bitcoin breaks, basically anybody's model who was not born in the last couple years and most people were in the last couple years aren't even thinking or talking about bitcoin, because it is unlike anything we've ever seen and completely, sometimes, sometimes harshly conflicts with what every other person's mental model for how money should look or operate would look. And so, rob, you asked me a question like you're risk averse, how are you all in on this? And I don't think I said this or explained as well as I could have saying like what else could I own? But like, just to be more explicitly clear, like Bitcoin, for the first time that humans have ever been able to interact with, is the first ever property with zero, absolute zero, counterparty risk. You could argue the counterparty risk is the laws of thermodynamics and physics. That's like the counterparty risk. You could argue the counterparty risk is the laws of thermodynamics and physics. That's like the counterparty risk. There is no other version of property. 

01:20:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If I said I didn't know what that was just speaking for maybe some audience members here. No, the thermodynamics and physics. 

01:20:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Hypothetically. Hypothetically. 

01:20:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If I didn't know what that was and I was an audience listener. What would? You say it was. 

01:20:35 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Okay, bitcoin. I didn't know what that was and I was an audience listener. What would you say? It was Okay. Bitcoin is the only model or map in the world that's usable. That is not wrong. So every single model in the world is wrong. They're all useful. Some are useful fictions, most are harmful. Some are useful, but none of these maps or models are the actual territory themselves. Bitcoin is because the territory is inherent to the map itself. So the ledger is currently secured by hundreds of exahashes of hash hash rate, all globally distributed across the planet. 

01:21:16
And what this means is and if there's a high chance that I don't explain this well, as anybody who's somehow tolerated listening to this entire episode knows, I'm not trained in communications or speaking or education but what this means, and if I haven't explained this well, I can link you to whatever document or video that could explain it better. But what this means is by simply looking at a number. You know for sure, with the laws of thermodynamics and physics for sure, that somewhere in the world electrons moved across the MOSFET. You don't know if that was because of burning coal in Kazakhstan, or some hydro plant off of the Iguazu Falls in Paraguay, or some geothermal plant in a volcano in El Salvador, though if you really tried you could find out. But you know for sure that electrons moved, work was done and there will always be a cost for this. 

01:22:06
Obviously, moore's law will keep making computers faster and better and cheaper, but I'm sorry to get too much into like the quantum physics, but at the absolute most basic level of how our universe works right now and at least as far as we understand in 2023, electrons will only ever move down to where you really get into wave-particle duality and a bunch of complex things that are waiting on the scope of this podcast will only move from injecting, usually a photon and adding energy to the system and they can change energy levels and absorb the photon and change states, and that will always involve some cost or movement of anything like. 

01:22:47
There's no possible world, at least in the way we understand quantum physics in 2023, where there could be some like crazy telekinesis, where we can just move electrons without exerting some type of cost. And so that's what I mean by thermodynamically Bitcoin proof-of-work. Mining thermodynamically secures the network across the most unthinkable nation-state level collusion you could ever think of. Every nation-state in the world could collude against Bitcoin today and it would have no chance. It's so many orders of magnitude, the strongest, most powerful, secure computer network in the history of the world that's impossible to describe on a podcast. 

01:23:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think we might need a top hat and a pipe to understand that one. 

01:23:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, here's my follow-up to that. 

01:23:35 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Sorry to cut you off, but that's just explaining why there's no counterpart risk and because I'm risk adverse, that can't be seized for me. So that's all I own. What would you say if quantum computing becomes? 

01:23:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay time, though People argue that quantum computing will become so fast and so powerful in our generation that it will be able to brute force it and hack the blockchain. 

01:23:56 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Is that possible? Post quantum cryptography has been a field of study for several decades and breaking SHA-2. If SHA-2 breaks, we have so many bigger issues than what happens to the Bitcoin network. It's not even funny for any other remote way you could store your wallet in 2023. It's a non-issue. To answer Stacey's thing on diversification and stuff, I don't want to hold any property that isn't and in many ways, bitcoin's the only pure property on the planet that humans have ever had, and so that's why I only own it. And so, as far as diversification, which I really just view as selling the winners to buy the losers, which I really just view as like selling the winners to buy the losers. 

01:24:40
It you know. Again, this is why, like, my model of the world is just different from Stacy's because of the things I've studied and what I've learned. If Stacy would like to learn more about the things I have, I'm happy if he or she wants to DM me to send some resources. But it's to my level of understanding of everything. It's akin to like somebody 300 years ago walking to Manhattan and seeing wow, I see this vision you guys are building for this city. Like the single blocks of Manhattan are going to be worth multiple billions of dollars and I can buy one now for 10,000. Like, I should definitely do that for the future of my family and everything. Like you're blessed with this amazing natural resource of this bedrock of granite that you can build this massive city on and create the biggest city in the us. Um, however, it's a little risky for that entire bedrock to be 100 granite. Why don't we just make it like 10 or 15 cotton candy? It's, it's cute and it tastes good and it looks so pretty. It's pink, I mean. Why would we want to do that? And you know, anybody with like a pulse of engineering or understanding how architecture works, would think there's like a complete bumbling buffoon, and that's kind of what I think about. Uh, no offense, anybody who owns stuff that's not big. It's like like a passenger in an airplane getting on and saying, hey, engineer or pilot, like I know, we've been iterating on these airplanes since the Wright brothers over a hundred years ago and through a series of rigorous tests and failures and engineering processes we've driven at the conclusion these should be made out of aluminum, mostly on the outside, but just in case, like why why don't we make it 10% or 20% Sarayan wrap, just in case. I mean, the plane obviously would go up in flames and everyone died immediately, like it would never even take off. And so to me is like a very obvious, inarguable way for money to work. And it looks like Bitcoin and there's no second bet. Of course there's trade-offs and risks to everything, but to be fair on those risks, I shouldn't say there's no risk. The risk I see the very slight caveat on the quantum stuff you asked about, johnny, would be. 

01:26:52
I don't know how much you or the viewers know about Bitcoin address architecture, but almost all of Satoshi's coins are stored in an address format that's called pay to public key. So if anybody listening to this has ever sent Bitcoin transactions, you might have noticed if you were using Bitcoin maybe five plus years ago, usually they started with the number one. If you started using Bitcoins, maybe like two to five years ago, they usually start with the number three and in the last two or three years they usually start with BC1. Bitcoin's gone between using different formats for address types where it used to be just in plain text, plain sight. You could send Bitcoin to an individual's public key. Then, when you went to pay to public key hash, pay to script hash, and now we have all these complex segment addresses. I think it's about 1.7 million coins that are Satoshi, anda, couple other like Hal Finney's. Probably a few people are stored in these pay to public key addresses. 

01:28:03
That it is conceivable, because those are in plain sight. You can almost think of it as like you could. You could mine Satoshi's coins with quantum computing if somehow, like the biggest innovators in quantum computing, wanted to dedicate all their resources to that and not like commercializing it, which would probably be worth more than that in my opinion. But I guess it's arguable and even that is not a compromise of the system. People would freak out, just as they did when half of the hash rate of the network shut off overnight in China in 2021. And three or four months later the price was higher and so it would cause a short term price thing. The greater threat that again is something like one in a million to ever happen. 

01:28:42
But if Bitcoin mining ever got so centralized that I kind of view miners in three categories. There's complete home miners who just plug ASICs into their home. There's kind of like intermediate sized miners who have clusters of 300 or 500 ASICs in like one of these shipping containers and either they bring it to the energy source or have it on some grid, however they do it. And then there's like the crazy publicly traded like Marathon Riot, huge data centers. You know tens of thousands of ASICs like multi-megawatt facilities. 

01:29:19
If we ever got to where 90-ish percent of global hash rate was in a dozen or so in this oligopoly of those megawatt type mining facilities and if all nation states colluded to shut those down at the same time near a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment like, let's say, within an hour or two, it doesn't really matter, you'd be close enough to make a big difference we could totally survive and not even bat an eye and lose 90% of hash rate and we'd still be secure about to like the most absurd level of nation state level collusion of the actual network working and securing the bitcoin. However, the network itself would become pretty unusable after that. Like the block intervals instead of 10 minutes would start to look a lot more like 100 minutes. And so now, instead of where you can pretty easily we're recording this in october 2023, you can send billions of dollars across border without permission in 30 to 60 minutes for like 5 to 25 cents. I don't I can intuit what the fee structure would look like if that happened, but, um, bitcoin would probably look decently unusable for 20 weeks if something like that happened, but like, we'd be fine again. It would just be like not optimal usage and if you really need to send money, you could pay the fees for it. So those would be the risks I see. But yeah, that's why I have all of it. It's the only way of my. 

01:30:45
And then you know, honestly, the other thing that's like really big. Well, a couple things. Sorry for rambling, but like all, all of like this broken fiat, inflation money has caused the average person to almost have to like train themselves to become a financial analyst, like like my mom. I love her and she's amazing, but like I think she would probably right now struggle to like really sit down and solve 2x plus 8 equals 20 or whatever, or explain the quarterly reports of Apple and what the future of quantum computing and AI is and what companies should be invested in. 

01:31:25
And because you bleed 10% of your money every year by saving right now in any fiat currency or if you're in Argentina or Venezuela or Palestine, much worse, you almost have to like become a financial analyst and look at investments and become a stockbroker on top of like your day job and like the mental stress that I become alleviated knowing my money is safe for the rest of time is like pretty hard to calculate. 

01:31:53
Like the opportunity cost. If I was trying to like manage all I need gold this month and stocks this month, and like what's going to still even exist in 200 years, where I know bitcoin's rock solid for the rest of time, um, and then the other thought just to finish would be like it excites and invigorates me and it's like the world I want to live in and you know, don't get me wrong like I want to be rich, not right like if. If there's a greater thing to store wealth in, then I will consider it, but I've not been presented with that and until it does, a really nice added benefit is like the morality and like the moral case for bitcoin in the world that, like um, I definitely want to vote with my wallet on that. 

01:32:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I think, um, since we're all sports bettors here, comparing this to something else would be like, let's say, you had a 99% projection win rate on the Atlanta Braves for tomorrow, would you dunk a hundred percent of your bankroll on that? 

01:32:57 - Berryhorse (Guest)
No, not even close. 

01:32:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So then, how are you dunking 100% of your bankroll into Bitcoin? 

01:33:04 - Berryhorse (Guest)
But it's not 99%, you're 100.0. 

01:33:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah Well then that's hey fair answer that checks out. 

01:33:10 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I'm not, I think probably, maybe I don't make it this well or misunderstand it. 

01:33:14
I think people just view it as an investment to get more US dollars or are focused on the exchange rate price, which just doesn't mean much to me. There's no other thing I could own that I can know for sure I will have tomorrow, no matter what. I think we talked about this before on the last one, but, like you know, at the most basic level, until, like, I want to be humble enough to admit like all the stuff we're talking about today and all of this would have sounded absurd to anybody a hundred years ago. So who's to say in a hundred years? There isn't some way to channel telekinesis or whatever where we can pick up on the electromagnetic radiation from our brains and our private keys can be stolen from us. 

01:33:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But, like, until then, how are you going to get 12 words in my mind? You ever heard of oz the mentalist before? Wow, wow, listen to bear us this point the fact that you said but it's not 99, it's 100. Listen, you could disagree with that if you want, but many people do but hand this man hand this man a crown. He backed up. 

01:34:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No it checks out. He's just went from Sir Horse to King Horse. 

01:34:21 - Berryhorse (Guest)
The other thing. Sorry to cut you off, but I run Bayes' theorem on this every day and my prior is that this is like the most surefire, thermodynamically secure version of money that will ever exist and has ever existed, and I should have all of it in. And I try so hard to break that prior every single day of my life for nine years now and I can't see any rational argument to like remotely intuit how any of this could break and if you guys have any, I'm willing to listen to it, but I don't see how it could ever become feasible. 

01:34:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Fair enough. We wanted to give you the platform to it's been six months to defend yourself from the people who just don't understand or like, don't have the context into your thought process, and I think you have totally done that For the audience out there watching on YouTube. If you've made it this far, chances are you have liked the content and you've been entertained. So make sure you hammer that like button down below and subscribe to the circles off channel if you're not subscribed yet. For those listening in podcast form, please rate and review five stars. We're gonna forego our final question because we asked you this last time wait, but did we do a? 

01:35:22
plus ev, negative. That's what we're not gonna forego. We have a new segment here on a weekly basis, me and johnny give out, like our. You know, something that we've noticed doesn't have to be sports betting related. That was plus ev or minus ev, so we're going to throw it over to you. Totally up to you what you want to go with here. 

01:35:39 - Berryhorse (Guest)
One thing you think is plus ev in life and one thing that you think is minus ev in life I think paying for, if you play golf, a really good club fitting is like psychotically plus, if you like, the amount you play, pay for like a round of golf or like two dozen balls is like roughly what you pay and, honestly, usually it gets waived if you actually buy the clubs themselves and for the length they're gonna last you. It's kind of my and I think a lot of people either a like their apprehensive, never had a lesson shared to show off how bad they are, like they're swinging stuff somebody else like a professional, or scared of judgment, whatever, um, or like think like, oh, I'm a 20 handicap, it doesn't really matter. Like, uh, I've just noticed like crazy changes and like little things like shaft flex and weight that um, help your game a lot I would have. 

01:36:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would have made it a minus one thousand and honestly you guys I know you probably have- a lot of uh canadian listeners. 

01:36:33 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Those txg guys in toronto is like you know, I'll admit they're probably pretty pricey. I and honestly you guys, I know you probably have a lot of Canadian listeners. Those TXG guys in Toronto is like you know, I'll admit they're probably pretty pricey. I don't even know, to be honest, but they look like they'd be pretty premium. But I'm sure those guys are great, Like they have really good content. I don't get paid anything from them, just saying. 

01:36:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know I'd reached out to you privately before about this and you recommended TXg. I would have laid minus 1000 that you would have worked somehow worked golf into the plus ev and minus ev. I knew it was coming, but right out of the gate, uh, and by the way, so a good club fitting I. I've done club fitting before, when I took up golf. It did make a very big difference for me, like I, I and it's it. 

01:37:11 - Berryhorse (Guest)
The difference is shown to you I thought it was the biggest scam in the world. I mean, like like I'm going to swing at 115. It's going to my ball speed is going to be 170, whatever. Like how much of a difference. It's crazy how much like it changes launch and spin and like literally zero physical changes to your body or anything. You get 20 yards if you're not optimally fit for your driver and like so much or more forgiving, which was like a big problem for me. 

01:37:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know I'm with you on that. I would echo this 100% as a plus EV move. 

01:37:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I got to just get better at golf, though. 

01:37:42 - Berryhorse (Guest)
Yeah See, that's where I disagree so strongly, like so many people, say that I did get a fitting, by the way. 

01:37:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Didn't need it, but got the fitting and somehow I'm worse now. So listen, that's anecdotal, that's anecdotal, that's definitely not the norm, but I am worse now. Okay, wait, wait, wait. Sorry, bear Harris, we got a little backtrack, though you got to give some context of when did you get the fitting and how much have you been playing. 

01:38:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you played way less this year. Yeah, because that's what I was going to say Way less. Guys, way less this year yeah because that's what I was way less. Yeah, guys, yeah, I got the fitting. I'm absolute straight trash now, but you played way less, is that? Yeah, sure, I played less. Dude, you had a golf simulator in your house last year, which you don't have now. You were definitely ripping a lot of shots last year that you're not ripping. 

01:38:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah I ripped the new clubs on the sim okay, and I am straight trash, okay. But with that being said, I then went back to my old clubs and I was also trash with those, thus leading me to believe it was absolutely never the clubs, and that's why I said about a minute ago I just need to get better at golf, to which berry horse disagreed I see how we've come, come around. That's the logical thinking that that's going through my head right now. But anyways do you have a negative EV Barry horse? 

01:39:04 - Berryhorse (Guest)
I'm sorry to take this so seriously, but um, it's just honestly what came to my mind most um, or be so serious, but like don't text and drive. 

01:39:13
I think like the only kind of like interesting point would be people really struggle with like the one in a thousand or one in a million price, like when you get into like the really low or high probabilities, um, like pricing, those tail events and I think maybe the way people's brains work, because of course you can't, you have to conceive like there's some benefit to being able to like do stuff while you're driving. Driving it's like a crazy waste of time, which I guess the privileged answer to the plus ev thing is hire a driver. But but uh, for the minus ev. Like I don't think enough people like they count death of themselves or something as zero and multiply the whatever 0.01, oh, however many o's you want to put times that and arrive at like zero plus some small positive from being able to do it without adding in like all the negatives of like the other people you're threatening life for. So don't text and drive, all right, minus ev fair enough I did. 

01:40:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
With that being said, also hold up, sorry, rob, like I'm also a very passionate about not drinking and driving, so for anyone listening right here, yeah, absolutely do not drink and drive. Um, you know, not even in my opinion, honestly not even one drink, because it's just irresponsible in today's day. There's back in the day it was more like oh, you had to get a designated driver, you had to do this like people didn't necessarily have a million options like uber is is so cheap that just get an uber wherever you go and actually plan ahead. 

01:40:38
Uh, so many people's lives get ruined. It hits close to home if you're listening and we can even help one person. Like, just don't drink and drive, it's actually the negative ev of all time to drink and drive. You don't even realize also you're risking so much more, even if you just like, let's say it's not the worst case scenario, you just total your car like you're gonna have to deal with a lot getting a dui. Technically you can potentially get a criminal record off that prohibit yourself from traveling. And then in the worst case, like there are scenarios where if you do something really bad, like you are facing jail time, things like that for something that's completely stupid in a split second decision, especially people who are, you know, 18, 19, 20 years old, just getting their license here in canada, where the legal drinking age is 19. Here, like do not drink and drive. Grab an uber, get a buddy to pick to pick you up, get your mom to pick you up. Do not drink and drive well said, well said. 

01:41:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, I just want to work in a listener, ev, which I got about an hour ago. He says to me that we don't ask for other listeners to give us like ev and plus minus, plus ev, minus ev. But I got a dm on twitter from john charles that says I got a sneaky value play for ev move of the week on your next circles off. He follows that up with tailing the ambulance after it passes and everyone is pulled over. Still, there's always that one guy who's just flying up behind the ambulance while everyone's still pulled over. I gotta say it, it does seem like if, if, if, value for you is time. This is a very good way of like of getting some time back. So, plus ev from john charles. His name is barry horse, but it's not his real name, but his alias is Barry Horse. He also goes by Sir Horse and King Horse today as well. You can follow him on Twitter at Barry Horse, underscore 29. Appreciate you joining us, barry Horse. It's been a splice. I said splice, not slice. Splice is what. 

01:42:31
I said why did? You say that I haven't said that since I was probably 16 years old, so I can't tell you why it's been 20 years, but make sure you give him a follow. Check him out on Telegram as well. For myself, rob Pizzola, johnny Berry, horse producer, zach, this has been episode number 122 of Circles Off. We'll catch everyone next week. Thanks for watching.