00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. We have a big bomb banger for you. You've heard his voice here on the Circles Off channel before, but you haven't heard his handicapping process, and it happens to be a complete 180 from my handicapping process. We'll get into it. Circles Off starts now. Come on, let's go Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 123. Right here, part of the Hammer Betting Network, I am Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from Betstamp 23,. 

00:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
James Jordan yeah who else you got. 

00:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Don't say, james, don't say. 

00:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
James Draymond. 

00:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Green. He wore 23 for like I don't know 15 years. 

00:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Cj Watson, you guys know that story. 

00:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Draymond Green wore 23 too. Yeah, draymond, he did too. Yeah, draymond, he did him. Do you know that? 

00:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
story. You know that story with Conor McGregor. No, when he was about to fight Floyd Mayweather, he posted an Instagram post just in a Golden State Warriors number 23 jersey, like walking somewhere, and it was the old school jersey, number 23. Yep and um, draymond Green commented on his pick assuming it was a Draymond Green commented on his pick, assuming it was a Draymond Green jersey fair assumption. And he commented he said take that thing off, bro. We with Floyd, not you. 

01:12
And then McGregor absolutely body bagged him. He responded back and he was like basically something to the lines of that's CJ Watson the jersey. And he's like that's CJ Watson, mate. He's like I don't know what, who you are kid, but like whatever, he literally just dummied him. He's like I don't care about basketball at all. He's like now, ask yourself, why would I be wearing a CJ Watson Jersey if I don't care about basketball? And then he like basically big times Draymond Green, which he obviously is way bigger than. And then the reason he was wearing that was because CJ Watson apparently Floyd's girl cheated on him with CJ Watson back in the day. 

01:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
McGregor knows how to handle. He's one of the best in terms of handling himself. He's the guy you just don't go after. 

02:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I got to read this quote quickly because it's pretty hilarious. 

02:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, go read the full. 

02:06 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So it starts Draymond. He says we rocking with Floyd, bro, not you take that off. Then Floyd comments splash for the cash. 

02:14
No, Floyd comments, splash for the cash, and then McGregor replies that's CJ Watson. Mate, I don't know who the F you are. No disrespect, though, kid Keep. I don't know who the F you are. No disrespect though, kid, keep hustling and stay in school. Now ask yourself why I'm rocking CJ when I don't know or give a F about basketball. I dribble heads off the floor, not a ball. This is no game here, kid. 

02:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's really good man, he's Bro McGregor, low-key, has some of the most intricate chirps that cut so deep. No, that's like, those ones are all in fun. But if you guys like watch the videos and you got to get some commentary on him when he was fighting khabib, I know he lost the fight and he also lost a flight, whatever made tons of money. But that khabib fight that he fought, the chirps that he had leading up to that fight were legitimately cutting so deep and all accurate. Like this guy had, like a he says if he had a hundred person team digging into stuff, stuff from Habib with his dad, with his coach, from Dagestan inside his camp, how he like took money from this guy and then left him after he went to jail, it's like why not, bro? 

03:17
He had everything and he was going hard and the, the chirps, a lot of like, a lot of them with mcgregor you're like all red panty night, whatever. Those ones are all for fun and people remember that you know, like the who the f is this guy, who the f is that guy, jeremy stevens yeah, those ones are all fun. These habib ones were deep cuts that most people didn't even understand and that was literally why, after habib won the fight. He was like this is not a joke, like this guy is dead and that. And then he literally like storm jumped the cage, hit danis, they're going nuts, man. That was all because mcgregor actually was deep into those chirps and if you guys actually watch a video on it, it's really cool. 

03:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Months ago unrelated but like related to the numbers that we do I was cleaning out one of the bedroom closets in my house where I had a bunch of jerseys and when I was younger I was like way more into jerseys than I am. Now. I don't wear jerseys anymore. I kept one jersey, a football one, tony Romo. I kept my Tony Romo jerseys. What'd you do with the others? I just donated them to to good value village. 

04:17 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You know who the guy is that buys those. It's me. 

04:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what? That's what I was thinking in my head. I'm like listen, I drop them off at like Value Village. They'll put them out there for cheap or whatever. But I did have a 23 Joe Hayden jersey. Joe Hayden, joe Hayden, the Browns, the Browns. 

04:33
And the story with that is I was watching football one day with my Steelers buddy, steve, who hates like everything, non-steelers, but I was big I don't know why like joe hayden was a player I liked, I was like big, upping him all game. We were watching t. I'm like, oh, hayden's so good and it was very clearly frustrating him. He's like if joe hayden makes an interception on this next play, I'll buy you a joe hayden jersey. And he made an interception on the next play. That steve bought me the joe hayden jersey I donated, still with the tags, everything on it. So I don't know what it cost, steve, but it was an official jersey and it's someone bought it at the thrift store for like 20 bucks you know what good for that? 

05:11
they got a great deal on a joe hayden browns jersey. But I'll never forget that. That is like we're not. 

05:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're not going to give our minus ev moves today, but like don't make stupid bets like that just for the sake of showing off like you could have easily just proved your point without making a stupid bet I, I like the uh, so I I keep old jerseys because that's half the fun of having a jersey at the time and getting a current active player is that that player has a chance to be complete trash and then you just have that jersey. So, for example, like I do, have it right here, actually at the office, in my office, there, not my jersey, but a friend of mine who's a san fran fan, that we all know he bought a jersey on the draft day of trey lance no and then I have that now in my office because he was like fuck this jersey, I don't want this, and he just threw it there. 

06:04
Obviously he doesn't want anymore. But now I have a trey lance sanfran jersey. Now, keep in mind, that's not even that funny right now, but in like 20 years I'm just gonna have that jersey and then we'll be like, oh, remember this guy. 

06:16 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's a good story, lance. Yeah, I remember when you bought that on draft yeah, exactly, so that's the fun of it. 

06:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of jerseys, I, I agree. Listen, I don't want to be like the I the old man, like the anti-fun guy or whatever, but, like for me, I do regular closet cleanouts, like my. My rule of thumb is if I didn't wear it in the past year, no, that's. 

06:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That can't be bro, then I'm past one year. Yeah, close my clothes, I buddy past one year, if you cannot justify where's already so many seasons here in canada. You're something. You have stuff that you wear every year and you're gonna literally everything I currently own is what I wear every I will wear it. A vintage raptors hoodie okay, I didn't wear it last year. Yeah, I'm not throwing that out. 

06:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I, I to each their own. That's for you, come on, but for me, I have. I, I like clothes. I buy a lot of clothes. This is part of the problem. Okay, like I don't need clothes, but I still buy clothes. And then I get to the point where I I don't have enough space for clothes. Sorry, like I don't want to be that guy, but like I don't. And then I go through. I'm like fuck, I gotta get rid of a bunch of this shit. And I've just been staring at these jerseys for years. I'm like I'm never going to, like I'm never going to put these on, ever, at any point. Like I could hang them in the background on like some content or whatever. But I might as well just get new good jerseys, no, but just to have I have that nail. 

07:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Remember that nail yakupov jersey. Yeah, we had it in the podcast studio at the old place. See, I had that. Yeah, imagine, imagine now in 25 years, us putting on that yakupov jersey bag. Remember, this guy went first overall. Dude, it's funny now. And speaking of 25 years. 

07:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pinnacle, the world's sharpest sports book available to bettors in Ontario. Find out what the pros have known for the past 25 years. As Johnny mentioned, pinnacle is where the best bettors play. We often preach line shopping here on Circles Off Everyday competitive odds at Pinnacle. We did it a few weeks back. We pulled up the bet stamp screen top to bottom. Look at the NFL card. 

08:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This upcoming week Half the games Rob pick a game Just out of this is ad hoc. Pick a game. This NFL Vikings-Bears, vikings-bears All right, bears, vikings, bears all right. If you want the bears, you're playing at pinnacle and I don't know why you'd want the bears, but if you do, for some reason, if you want the bears, justin jefferson out fields playing hot. 

08:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
if you want the bears, to be an inclement weather game. 

08:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Maybe the bears can run the best price in the market, plus as of this recording, plus two and a half minus 103 here on pinnacle use code hammer, of course, bet smart, bet pinnacle, your trusted sportsbook for 25 years, and, as always, you must be 19 plus. 

08:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Available in ontario, not available in the us. And please play responsibly before we get into our guest for today. I I'm an analytics guy. I look through the analytics. I'm like what the hell is happening to our view to like ratio on this program, what the hell's going on? And then I look back at the previous episodes. I'm not telling people to like the content, so just do us a favor. Pre-like For the first time this week. Pre-like the content. Smash that like button down below it. Pre-like the content. Smash that like. Button down below it helps people find our content, helps us grow this channel. If you're listening in podcast form, rate and review five stars. That also helps and I'll tell you what, like the episode now. 

09:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you make it to the end of the episode and then you regret that, like, go back and unlike the episode, I'm going to allow that. So that's going to be okay, don't worry. No, don't do that. If you really hate the episode, pre-like it now, unlike it at the end, but don't unlike it at the end. Anyways, we are joined today by a very special guest. 

09:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Our guest this week on Circles Off is someone who goes by Shark. You may recognize his voice. We use one of his sound clips pretty regularly on this show big bomb bangers at shark and sports 88 on twitter, the collection of his followers known as sharky waters nation. His twitter bio reads professional sports prognostication and wagering ride the wave or get out of the water, which we've actually said on this show as well. A lot, a lot of phrases from here that are used an entertaining guy. 

10:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Welcome to the program. How you doing today, shark doing great guys. 

10:30 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Pleasure to be here. I was just looking at sports. Today we got two baseball games, hockey, triple header. I'm sure you guys are excited for that. I'm excited to be here. Let's talk some sports and gambling and let's let it flow we are. 

10:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We are fired up. I mean, this is uh, many people say it this is the best time of the year. You can't even argue with it. So so you got september, yo, okay, baseball coming up, whatever. But as soon as you hit october and you get that nhl season going, and then you get the nba season going, mlb playoffs still kicking around, you got the college football nfl how do you beat that? 

11:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
and then college hoops is not too far, either not too far away but you don't. 

11:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't think you get an overlap, baseball playoffs or college hoops it is a great time of the year. 

11:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think baseball playoffs are especially one of the more like underrated. I'm not a huge baseball fan like I can't get through the grind of 162 game season and watching day in and day out but the the atmosphere and we're recording this. On tuesday, monday night we had the phillies and braves uh, big comeback in that game last night. Like it's just, I don't know, I almost get like shivers thinking about playoff baseball sometimes. I'm not sure where it ranks for you, shark, but for me it's like one of the best playoff sports, if not tops no, I totally agree and I think it's. 

11:40 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
it's super interesting because obviously get 16, which theoretically takes away the urgency in the game, and then all of a sudden it's so hypersensationalized to one or two games, particularly with the new format where the first round all games in one gym or arena, whatever you want to call it. You don't even get home field advantage. You got to go in there and win two and comically, two teams did win two road games. So the insanity of just the unknown, I think, is what makes it so entertaining, Rob. 

12:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yep, totally agree. Yeah, it's incredible. So, shark, I guess I wanted to give you a chance here to just talk about your background, how you got into sports betting. What's the deal? 

12:15 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Well, the long deal is just, basically, I went to college and I realized I didn't like class and I thought how can I do something that doesn't follow that route into my actual life? And so basically I started betting in college, really loosely. Like you know, I think everybody starts so public, so not in tune with analytics data, whatever You're watching SportsCenter, you're like I don't bet that team, I'm going to maybe compete a hot take narrative with my buddy. You like it, you, you know it brings such life to every random benign game. And I think that's where I really fell in love with it was really the fact that I could turn on, turn on any single game in any league in the world and all of a sudden I was so into the game. It wasn't even the money when I first started and then, of course, it did become the money over the course of the last 15 to 20 years and I started to really get in there to the detailed analytics. I actually played poker for a living for 10 years, so it's very same, uh, format, game theory, strategy and obviously psychology of players and whatever. 

13:09
And when I started to really understand the psychology of team sports, that's when I really got serious about making money professionally doing it, because I realized there are patterns, there are things that repeat themselves. Situational analysis is very real and Vegas sports folks do tell you very good stories with their numbers and the line averaging patterns. There are things that repeat themselves. Situational analysis is very real and Vegas sports folks do tell you very good stories with their numbers and the line averaging and stuff. So it's been a 20 year process but it's been something I always enjoyed. I would say I enjoy it now in a different way. You know, when you're a fan, you have a sweat. It's, it's very entertaining. Now it's enjoyment from really a standard of lifestyle, but I've always enjoyed it and I really love doing it as a career. 

13:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What do you say are the? 

13:49 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
main sports you're betting right now. Right now I'm really tuned into football Obviously. Last night I had Monday Night Football, vegas Raiders and I see them come through for us there. But NFL, I love the NFL. I grew up in the New York area, obviously in Florida now. But you know New York I'm sure you guys know is not really a college sports town, so it's very much professional sports and I've always been a big NFL fan. 

14:09
Nfl Sundays were always what I would call trophy days with my guys. You know now you get 18. You used to get 17 on Sundays. You know you wait all year for those days. I love pro football. I don't love college football as much, from a growing up standpoint Again, rutgers being just an absolute disaster of a program until recent history. But I love the NBA. I've been a Knicks fan since I was as far back as I can remember, probably 1990. They've let me down continuously. But that's a different conversation and I do like the Yankees and hockey for me is a little bit off the grid in terms of it Still follow up. 

14:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But that's probably my least favorite sport Interesting. Out of curiosity, before we get into, I want to break down some of the situational analysis stuff that you were talking about at some point as well, but just more on the background side of things. You go by an alias. We call you Shark here. Where did that like? I'll call it a gimmick. I don't mean to call it a gimmick, but you know that's the nature of an alias. Where did that come from? Where did that originate? 

15:05 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Very random actually and it's a funny story. Actually I was playing poker in Florida about six or seven years ago. My brother, who you guys might know as Old man, bets on Twitter. That's actually my little brother. He started doing gambling Twitter and I was in a card room and he hit me up and he's like yo, check out this account, old man who Bets. And I was like what is this, bro? Like you know what's Twitter? What's gambling Twitter? What's going on? 

15:27
And again, I was betting pretty seriously at the time but I had no intention of really creating you know a channel or even media. It was. It had never even crossed my mind. And when I stumbled upon my brother's account, he was hitting me up pretty relentlessly about it. I started an account and I didn't know what to name it, and so he was old man who bets. So I called myself middle-aged man who bets, not like zero planning whatsoever. And he hits me up and he's like bro, I'm getting trolled. People think it's a burner. I'm like what's a troll? What's a burner? Like what is this? So he's like you gotta delete it. And I was like bro, I just created an account. Why would I delete it? What's going on here and uh, so he's relentless for like three or four days and I'm probably like all right, all right, I'll change it. 

16:11
And at the time I had I'm sure you guys remember five dimes. Back in the day they used to have two, two um poker rooms connected to the sports book and one of them was called fish pond and one of them was called Fish Pod and one of them was called Sharky Waters. And I remember back in the day this is back when I was probably 25, I always used to play in the Sharky Waters. So I was like you know, I'm a young kid, I'm a shark, I'm not a fish, you know, I want to play in the Sharky Waters. And so when my brother told me no middle-aged man who bets, first thing that came to mind I was probably having breakfast, like five or six years ago I was like sharky waters. And then I was like nation, because it's got to be, you know, connected, community, whatever. And that was it sharky waters, nation. So that's where it came from and that's obviously the personality within it. It became the shark, obviously. You know the whole thing, but yeah, that's the baseline for it so what? 

16:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't mind that at all I always get to hear five dimes be brought back up it may. 

17:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, the five dime story. I've told tons of five dime stories on this program before and um, rest in peace, tony. I will say that, who was always? He was always straight up with you. That's the one thing about tony. Didn't always make the decisions in favor of the player, but at least he was very straight up with you hey, you got any five dime stories. 

17:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Shark, did you ever play sports? Not? 

17:20 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
not terrible ones. Uh, my butt. I mean obviously there's some notorious stories about, you know, withholding funds and I mean really, you know, even the, we don't want to go down the wormhole of how he's no longer on this planet but. I think it's very interconnected, potentially the sketchiness, the brand and the payout structure. But I don't have any, but my friends certainly did. My friends certainly did. I got a couple buddies from new jersey who definitely had five fingers held on that side and never got it back. 

17:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, shark, you're one of probably like at least a half dozen people we've had on this program who started out as a poker player and then eventually ended up in sports betting. Now, what's been interesting is that's kind of like the same path for me. I played poker professionally for a couple of years before I got into sports betting, but the paths of these people tend to be very different in terms of why they made that transition, why they went from poker to sports betting. For my case, it just like the edge dried up. I was no longer a winning poker player at the limits that I needed to in order to successfully do this as a career. Curious what made you make the leap from poker to sports betting? 

18:22 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
That was part of it, for sure. I mean particularly online, because I started playing online back in the you know, the Chris Moneymaker boom days and I'm sure you remember the beauty of it was there were international sites for all countries in the world, so it just opens up. You know, we call it the fish pond. It opens up the fish pond. I mean there were fish on the site 24-7. And I remember playing overnight. 

18:43
I'd get up at five in the morning to play people from, you know, overseas in Asia, russia, china and I remember thinking to myself at that point in time, not totally in tune with the geography and the culture behind it, but there's just a more of an aggressive gambling mentality from the cultures over there in a lot of ways, and they really are what you call in poker, more spewy players, less conservative players, way, way more apt to dust off stacks with hyper-aggression. But when the sites and Rob, I'm sure you remember this in 2011, when internet poker was banned in the United States, that's where it was my first disruption point and at that point I had never really played casino poker I started playing casino poker. I can't say I really liked it from the standpoint of how long it took. You know you got to commit six, ten hours smoky casinos, like you know, playing in your living room, playing in your office. You get coffee, you can walk around. Just so much more agreeable to me from a lifestyle perspective. So that was where I started to, I think, just just gradually go away from it. 

19:42
But I think when I was in the card rooms in Florida when my brother created Old man and Bets and I started to get my mind thinking the whole thing, it really did come back to this idea for me that the zero-sum nature of poker is really just grading on the mind, subconsciously, that there's no money external. There's no money external. It's all this money traveling within the player pool. And to win in poker you have to take down other people financially, you have to out-strategize them and of course that's the beauty of the game. But from a real survivalistic perspective, it's life and death and it's circling this money and I just felt like that's not where I wanted to go for the next 50 years. I envisioned myself being 70 years old doing this and I was just like this is not what I'm going to do. So I gradually got out of it. I still play occasionally, but that was the basis for it. 

20:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, just out of curiosity, do you not consider it the same with sports betting, though, like it's a little different, because when you're sitting at a poker table it's it's much more clear, right? If I'm playing Johnny heads up, either I'm taking his money or he's taking mine. We throw shark in the mix here. You know it's circulating amongst us. With sports betting you do have the sports book as an intermediary, but ultimately to win at betting you're still very much reliant on people losing, right, like I get why you might consider them dissimilar in the fact that it's not a, you know, a head-to-head interaction because you have that intermediary. But I've always viewed sports betting as kind of the exact same thing well, it's certainly similar, obviously it's it's risk and and whatnot. 

21:12 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
But I do think, the key point being that you're playing against the house and, as you said, as the intermediary, but I would say more so, just as the one-on-one, because you know we're we're not taking action. You know we're putting out plays, people compete with us in terms of you know the angles, the narratives, whatever, but we're not actually going back and forth monetarily in a, in a literal way, and I think that's the differentiation, differentiation point for me. Like I, I would feel again like just a subconscious burn, like I'd be in hotels and I, you know, I'd stack some guy for you know a thousand, two thousand, whatever I go back and I'd be like you know, fucking, hey, man, like, like what was that guy doing now like and it would just burn on me. 

21:49
So I don't disagree, obviously the risk and the whole, the whole enterprise, whatever. But I do think the fact that casinos are competing against the player let the subconscious burn morally beyond the casino more so than us, if that makes sense. 

22:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I think it's a that's a fair point to make, or at least a judgment that I can say makes makes logical sense to me. 

22:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, shark, guess, my next question is more in regards to like you know what. I don't want to ask this in a bad way, but like, obviously you're doing a lot of stuff on the media and you're actually quite good at it in terms of someone who's very entertaining. We've we've talked on this podcast many times. You know whether you're going to win on the picks, lose on the picks, whatever. At the end of the day, you're one of the most entertaining guys in the space. But how are you actually earning right now? Is it primarily through your actual betting and winning money off the sports book, or is it more on the media side of things? 

22:43 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
whatever, that monetization and angle is as well it's a great question I appreciate you saying that, because I really do love to bring the entertainment um. The last year for me has been difficult. It has been difficult. I was breaking it for about nine months. I've really started to hit an upswing now. Uh, started in the middle of baseball season. I had a couple really nice bets in Wimbledon, actually on the women, which was very surprising to me. But I saw it and I hit it and I was like all right, you know whatever. But football's been good and we're going to get an upward movement. But I do profit primarily from sports betting. 

23:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I have made some money content-wise, but not a ton, because I will say this it's been all entrepreneurial for me. 

23:20 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I started shows on my own channel. I was working with Jay Money on his own channel. We were not sponsored and we were not hired by anybody. So my profit for the last five to six years has been almost exclusively my betting and obviously people will tip, you know, in very nice clusters and whatnot, but it is primarily my actual bets. Going forward. I do look to monetize. Obviously I'm not, you know, given the ability to you know, express conversation through sports. There's a lot of adventure and Avenue there, but I'm going to be actually working with a company coming up for a basketball season. That'll be my first season working with another company in terms of paid content and whatnot. 

23:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, we'll decide. We'll dissect that a little bit more, but let's talk about your betting as a whole. Obviously, we're content creators in the space as well. We've had like the whole argument before, or conversation, about what constitutes a professional in betting, right? Your bio on Twitter says professional sports prognostication and wagering. Actually, before we actually get into your betting style, I'm just curious in your eyes, what do you think constitutes being a professional in the space? 

24:27 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I think, just blanketly, it's somebody that does this as their primary source of income, an occupation, if you want to call it that. I think there's no, that's it pretty much, and I think that something that I've talked about. Of course, it's great to work with you guys for the first time, but I've talked about this for years, really years that 95 to 99% of people that are putting content and pics out there do this as a side hustle and a secondary endeavor, and it's very easy to get confused when you're a follower, because most people don't know what they're looking at and they're bombarded by thousands of accounts, all marketed reasonably well. And again, I would firmly agree with you you didn't even say it, but I'm preemptively saying it 95 to 99% of people in gambling Twitter are not doing this professionally. 

25:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Right now. I agree completely, by the way, with that. Like, if you make that's what I've said, is my answer in the past is to be deemed like a professional. I think you got to be basically making your primary income that you live off of from betting. If you're making income from betting and you're making whatever 10 grand a year not saying you don't win at betting, but just like you're not a professional, that's not, that's not professional. You know what I mean. Like you're, just you're still. You still need more money than that to actually live your life. 

25:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think what starts to muddy the waters a little bit, if you know, excuse the pun, but is when you do start taking sponsorship money elsewhere, Like we're sponsored by Pinnacle. 

25:50
We're very proud to be sponsored by Pinnacle on this program. It's a sports book I'd recommend for anyone. But as soon as that starts to happen in the space and you start to monetize your content creation, there comes a wave of people again pardon the pun, I don't even know where these are coming from, but there comes a wave of people that just start to question your ability to win in the long run. Why would a sports book sponsor this content, or a brand or whatever sponsor this content if they didn't think it was going to be beneficial to them in the long run? So I think that's something that I mean. If you're going to take sponsorship dollars down the road here, Shark, I think that's something that's like a fair criticism in the space. I'm curious what you think on that and how you would rebut someone who says, well, if you're a long-term winner, why would you consider even taking a sponsorship? 

26:33 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Yeah, no, I mean, I agree with you 100%. I've seen it. Even I did a promotion for DraftKings last year. I wasn't paid for them. It was a one-off promotion to the NCAA tournament. People started coming down immediately. So I get it. I understand the cynicism of people is very real. But I will say this this industry is in the beginning of its outward growth, in the United States in particular. Obviously, it's only become legalized in the last couple of years, state to state. But these companies are putting out content that is fairly irrelevant to the actual wagering and they're taking wagers. It's largely just a way to promote the industry of betting and get an energy behind it, and there is a possibility. I mean, it's not everybody, but there is a possibility, but there is a possibility. You guys, myself, you can be a deeply analytical, successful, better and also good on screen and conversational with an entertainment. 

27:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So it's a rare person but it certainly is possible and that's what I do and that's what I believe can be done. Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, it's got to be like a synergy. The reason why we choose to partner with pinnacle here, and why we're fortunate enough to be connected with that brand, is because pinnacle is actually like a brand that accepts all winners. We we preach here like this is how you can get better at betting, how you can improve, and then also we're connected with a brand that it's like hey, you can play here still, even if you're the best in the world, you can still play at our book and we're willing to take on any and all action. So that's why I think like there's a synergy there. 

28:05
But I agree with you, when you start getting into some of those other books or even just other brands outside of gambling, there's like if there's no connection, a lot of times it looks bad on the creator way more than it looks bad on whatever the brand is just trying to promote an industry or product. Um, you want to get into betting now? Then rob, yeah, let's do it. 

28:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, um, you talked a little bit off the top about, uh, being somewhat analytical, looking for situational spots in sports betting. Um, let's. Let's just say the nfl is an example, because obviously people's handicapping processes differ depending on the sports. There's different processes. But for the nfl, what's your typical process for selecting a bet? Um, or just like, essentially creating a betting strategy, something you wanted to look at for that specific sport? 

28:48 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
You know it's interesting. You ask that because I've become so focused on numbers in other sports baseball and basketball. I was actually losing in NFL last year and I had to really take a step back after week one this year and go back to what I was doing actually during the quarantine season. 

29:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I was I was winning at a very high rate. 

29:06 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I was in the finals of a competition but I had forgotten that it really is these one-off games that have no real connection to anything else, numerically, and it is such situational analysis like a good example of this. I was actually thinking about this before we we started the broadcast. But the kansas city chiefs at the vikings last sunday, I think, was a perfect example of the unique handicapping within nfl. So obviously, sharp versus joe public is this indefinite conversation sharps for all of the vikings and sharps look at the chiefs as obviously the champions. You know the best team in the league theoretically, you know maybe the niners, whatever, but we'll stay with the chiefs. And they say this line is short. And I used to say that and I, as I was saying before, I used to be super public and then I think I went too contrarian. But the crucial point was I got too detailed, I got too deep into what I call static analysis, where I look at one game as just total tunnel vision to the game and I say chiefs should be laying seven and a half, nine and a half to the vikings in this matchup and that used to lead me astray because I would take the vikings. Then I'd be like I can't believe the public got lucky with the chiefs and what I realized is that again, it has to be more situational analysis, particularly pro ball, and I said said this on the show that I do on X and YouTube on Sunday regarding the Vikings or, excuse me, regarding the Chiefs. 

30:28
The Chiefs just play to the spot because they have the best quarterback in the league and they have a Hall of Fame coach. They're so damn consistent. Prior to this game, you guys probably remember they did not cover a game in primetime at the Jets. Final score was 23 to 20. They were like eight points. They're 1-8 now. Last eight games outside of the division against the AFC 1-8. They're 5-0 at the NFC in that same window. So you just see a direct polarization and it's not as arbitrary as people might think. Afc plays a different brand. It's different stadiums, it's more familiarity. When they go to the other conference they turn up. It's teams. They don't play the other teams just don't have enough tape and scheme and experience against them. For whatever reason. They play excellent ball and that's why I took the Chiefs. It was short, it was public, the whole thing, but the point is it's deep situational analysis and it stands alone in pro football just because of the lack of games okay. 

31:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, uh, there's tons for me to unpack there. So we're very different style of bettors. I don't want to make this come across as like one way's right, one way's wrong or whatever, but I do want to. I do want to get into that a little bit more. So for a starting point, um, you were talking about, okay. You made, uh, kansas city much bigger favorite in that game, somewhere in like the seven and a half to nine and a half point range. My question is why even care what other people are betting on in the game? Like, why even look at the public stuff? If you're going to make a number on the game, why in your process do you feel it matters to look at what other people are betting? 

31:58 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I actually don't. I just said that for the sake of that conversation, conversation just acknowledging that there's a split in the market and a deep conversational split across the country, in the world. 

32:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't look at what other people bet and I'm actually very passionate about that. 

32:09 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
To be a super effective, better you should be so honed into the game itself, numerically and psychologically, and then whatever everybody else is doing, you know, let them do it and let your handicap stand for yourself within the game analysis okay, fair enough, that's that we we can agree on then. 

32:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
From that point of view, now, a lot of what you talked about there is very it is very situational and like I won't be careful when I say this, but like honing in on specific situations in the past and saying that this has some predictive value that I think other people are not accounting for going forwards in the future. It's a very different style of betting. It's stuff that's available to anyone else out there. What do you like? What is it that you think you do in particular that's going to separate you from other bettors in the space, because really, what you're describing is, um, a lot, a lot of people can do. 

33:06
That is what I'm getting at here, right, whereas it's a lot harder for someone to take all this data with the nfl, run it through some sort of algorithm and come out with like a very good projection. That's much harder and again, I'm not diminishing in any way. To each their own with betting and let me just make that explicitly clear to people watching. You bet your own style. At the end of the day, if you have results, you keep doing it. If you don't, you go back to the drawing board, you change it. But what makes you different? What makes you being able to discern this stuff, these patterns in the data, better than other people? 

33:40 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I don't know, I think. I think part of it is just you know your mind is what it is. You know you're born in a certain way. You see things, you understand human patterns and frequencies a little more clear way. I don't disagree with you, obviously, you know creating your own model algorithmically. You know weighting different points is incredibly sharp and I'm right there with you and I don't want to come across as just trend betting or just narrative betting. I don't, actually. But this is just exclusive to the NFL. So I do feel like the NFL is so unbelievably. What's going on this week, what they do last week? How are they going to react? Is this division out of division, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I really think it's the only sport that you can handicap that way. And that's where I was saying I had to adjust because I was losing in previous seasons with my actual analysis and I had to go to this totally different strategy for the NFL only right. 

34:21
In other sports I'm very numerical. I don't model my own and make my own numbers. What I do is I go to the biggest algorithms and I look at their numbers and I track their numbers in terms of weighting. So I like to see in terms of particularly like basketball, hockey and baseball, where teams play, you know, four, five, six, baseball 12, 15 times, whatever, and just see how the number moves game to game versus the results, to see how the books react to the previous game and if they adjust it up in terms of a continued buy on the same team that already won or if they're moving it towards the team that's in the revenge angle if there's a zigzag, if there's a cluster coming, et cetera, et cetera. 

34:57
And that's how I handicap all other sports and I agree with you a hundred percent%. It's incredibly complicated and it really is the deep. I call it the interweb of the 82. In basketball, you know, you get six and a half months, 30 plus teams all over the country, all different schedule spots. There's so much complexity to it and the numbers really do weight what they're going to do, far more so than any sort of standout narrative on a given night. 

35:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I'm right there with you so when you say the vegas algorithms, you're basically doing like some sort of market analysis, right, like you're looking at lines from previous weeks. Maybe if a team blows out another team, you're checking to see if there's like some sort of inflation next game, like that. 

35:35 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
That's what you're referring to yeah, and I'm talking specifically about the opening number, not what people are betting in the final line. I go directly to the opening number and that's what I track and something that I've tabulated over time. I was talking to a couple bookies going back 10, 12 years and they said to me there should be generally a three to four-point gap home to road between two opponents, just expecting neutrality. Nothing in the game is going vastly differently in their grading of the game and that's what I've gone on a baseline point with most sports, particularly the NBA, and it's been extremely effective now for five years. And again, it's just this general idea. 

36:15
Say, the Boston Celtics are on the road at the Knicks laying one and a half points. If they come home based on just neutral, nothing has changed it should be around minus four and a half, but it won't always be minus four and a half, sometimes it's six and a half and in my grading of this that speaks to two extra points of strength to Boston, which makes that a Boston side from the books. And it's it's particularly strong if, say, they lost the previous game at minus one and a half road to the next. So it's actually the books are telling you the result of the previous game was a bit of an anomaly versus the line and the result is such an anomaly we're going to actually overreact our line number to tell you how strong the reversal is coming in the next game. And that's what I look for. I try to find discrepancies between numbers and results and what the book is telling you in the next line so, shark, you mentioned, uh, the opening number, tracking against only the opener. 

37:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Why aren't you tracking against the closer? 

37:19 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
because I don't want, I feel it's. I feel it's contamination. Ultimately. It's like rob was saying you don't want to, I feel it's. I feel it's contamination. Ultimately. It's like Rob was saying you don't want to know what other bettors are doing. I don't want the final number, like it's been on the street and tossed around for a week and just contaminated by all different angles. I want to see what the sports books, in the most very, very clear way, think about the game and and that's it. I just want no market contamination on the number. 

37:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But historically the closers have been significantly sharper than the opening lines. So technically the betters are actually sharper than the sports books. 

37:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Shaping the market better Shape the market better than the sports books. 

37:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if you did look at the closers, I think potentially it would paint a better story. However, obviously, looking at the openers and knowing where those are going to be has value as well in terms of just like early yeah, yeah no, I don't disagree. 

38:08 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I mean, I obviously it's. It's incredible, coming in here, you know, five years later and talking to you guys, and I think that a really interesting snapshot is we've all been doing this for a period of time and we just, you know, come together in this one specific moment. Of course I don't disagree with you, but I will say, when I started looking at the opening number and I'm talking really specifically about nba basketball, more than any other sport, the nba has been a very unique way. I think that it's the people who bet it are just different. They don't bet college as much, they're very centered into just the nature of the sport. Again, 82 games, six months, team dynamics, not only that. 

38:41
Basketball is such a unique sport. I've said this for years. But five on five, no pads. It's very bare bones, it's wilderness. You can go out in the middle of a field and throw up a hoop and just run. You don't need hockey pads, ice arenas, you don't need 53 on 53, 10 coaches, helmets, the whole thing. Baseball bats, pitchers, bullpens the most basic bare-bones sport in american sports is basketball, and that's why there's such a psychological angle to the game, because it really is controlled much more by effort, emotion and strategy, and that's why people who bet basketball, I think, are very unique bettors, because they center on this idea, even if they don't say it outwardly. Um, and that's why the number actually has so much more transparency, because I think books have more of a grip as to what's going to happen in the game, because it does play more literally to the expected point of motivation and whatnot. And again, I don't disagree with the market movement, but just in my experience with that, with professional basketball specifically, the opening number is more clear. 

39:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, a couple of other things. 

39:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um, so I got one thing, but sorry before we move on to the next question. So for all the listeners out there, I want to recap one thing. So, whether you agree or disagree with Sharky, uh, or you know, obviously we've given out some opinions that match, some opinions that are contrarian. On this podcast We've had tons of guests, over a hundred episodes. So, um, you know, not every single opinion is gonna be the exact same. 

40:04
One thing I did want to say that shark you mentioned that I do agree with, might be a little bit different than, uh, people would expect is on that NFL angle he mentioned earlier. So the the chiefs versus Viking games from the previous weekend. Um, shark mentioned, obviously that the chiefs are have a good quarterback, have a good coach, which is very true on both ends, and then basically noting that the teams that they have played in the AFC one and eight in NFC, five and oh. So if you just blanket take that statement and you know kind of related to every single game, you're going to just find yourself in a rabbit hole where you're like looking through every single team and you're going to find some trend, because if you look long enough, you're going to find all these guys are 0-8 on monday nights or 0-8 on, and it might span back three quarterbacks, in which case, you know, what do you care if the giants are are, um, you know, 28 covers in a row on this time zone, if it's like four different quarterbacks. But at the same time, what I will say is where I very much agree with Sharky is these angles, so to speak, although it might not be blanket correct to say, yeah, versus the NFC, kansas City is a better team, but it's possible that, given the fact that they have the number one QB in the league and one of the arguably number one coach in the league, they probably will be better versus teams that they play less. And the reason is very clear they have the stronger in the positions where the actual game planning and the strategy is going to matter, and not having like as much tape on Mahomes or not having as much tape on the other team in general, will lead to, you know, if you have a better coach and you don't have as much tape should be a good thing for you, andy Reid, historically coming off. If you have a better coach and you don't have as much tape should be a good thing for you, andy reed, historically coming off. The buy is a better coach than rest of league. 

41:48
That's not a trend that doesn't matter. That is a trend that matters because we have such a long sample size of that and it makes sense. So when we're evaluating all these trends, I think it's very important, speaking to the listeners here, to to realize that not all of these trends are valuable, but also not all of them are garbage. You have to really pick and choose and a lot of times what Sharky mentioned, which you know a lot of people probably disagree with. He's like well, sometimes it's just in your brain. You got to know what's good and bad and like I actually agree with that completely. Sometimes you just need the logic to actually realize this trend has something to it and then you maybe go or you say, hey, this trend obviously doesn't matter, but it literally does come from in the brain. You can't possibly run an algorithm that maps out every single trend and evaluates what's good and bad. 

42:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The challenge I have with the situational handicapping is more so of how do you know whether or not other people, like the market, is already accounting for this Like here's one example right, like I'm just throwing out a random example but the Broncos, uh home record in september for for like the past dozen years where they had like an amazing against the spread record and there was some sort of logic that's applied to that trend which is like well, guess what? 

43:04
Denver plays in altitude and the rest of these teams are going into denver, they've practiced there in the off season, they're in better physical condition to start the year and they win. I found myself betting against the Broncos early on this year and this isn't to do like the Barry Horwitz pat on the back, but that doesn't mean anything to me because at some point you get to a point where everybody now knows that, everybody now understands that, like it's just talked about ad nauseum, the Denver Broncos this, their home field advantage, is way higher than in september and it starts to get accounted for in the line. And that's the challenge for me, shark, in trying to use this type of handicapping is how, how do you know when that is being accounted for already or when it's not, and I've just never been able to come to grips with that well, I I agree with both of what you're saying. 

43:52 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I think most trends are very anecdotal. To be perfectly honest, I hate trends. I really do, and I don't even look at trends and what I do is I actually pull up the schedule in front of me as if I'm reading a newspaper and I actually go through it visually in my eyes to see if I can pick up patterns and zigzags and situational points that are more consistent than not. And when I do, that's where I pounce and you'll never see me say something like you said, like there, you know the last 10 years, this, this, that it's not, that it's very case, specific stuff like that and you know, even going back to the chief spot, just for one second. Another thing that I really loved about that spot out of, of the five games they had played at the NFC where they were 5-0 ATS, four of those five games were off of a non-cover the previous week against the AFC. So it's very reactionary as well to the way they play at the AFC, bouncing back, and that's what I do. 

44:49
I really don't trend bet and I do want to make that clear. I don't trend that at all. I really do go through the box scores and the schedule, as if I'm reading a newspaper. And that's what Johnny was saying about you know logic and figuring it out. I actually have talked about this for years. But it's like analytics in baseball and you know analytics in football, where they just use these long-term averages that just take all the variable points and put them into basically one mushed number almost, and that's where guys make tons of mistakes because they're just taking away all the spot specific analysis and I've said this so many times, for me that's terrifying. I could never bet unless I'm in the most precise possible informational scope points, which are the box scores and the schedule. So I'm actually not trend betting at all. I'm going into hyper detail analysis of the schedule and seeing what patterns I can find and repetitions and whatnot. 

45:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's an interesting conversation for sure. My pushback would be I, I completely understand what you're saying and like the logic and, as you see it, the only challenge I have with this type of handicapping is that, um, you, you reference the five and oh, against the spread for kansas city, non-conference um opponents or or whatever. But for me five games is such a small, like a sample, that I can never do anything with. That's the challenge for me, right? Because if I flip a coin and I'm not suggesting your coin flip or anything, but I flip a coin five times there's going to be times where it comes up five heads. There's going to be times where it comes up five tails. 

46:26
We know what the distribution is right and with the NFL, this is what makes it challenging. And there's other people that I respect in the space. There's part of, uh, the hammer betting network. Cleave ta is is a great example of someone that likes to take situational analysis into account when he's handicapping games. The issue I have with it is that we deal with such small samples in the nfl where it could just flip on a dime so quickly. So it's like, how are you confident in something that only happens three, four, five, even eight, 10 times, and enough to say that this is likely to happen again. Going forwards. 

47:04 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Because I'm able to. One of the things that I really pride myself on in terms of statistical analysis is knowing when to zoom in and knowing when to zoom out in terms of the law of averages, and what is zoomed in and going to continue and what needs to be zoomed out and understood as a situational small window outlier. But if you look at what the Chiefs have done, that spans, I believe, four seasons. So you find just this deep consistency Againomes, reed, and it's such a crucial point because there's such turnover in this league quarterbacks. I mean, every other year there's a new quarterback for half the teams coaches. The carousel is indefinite. 

47:44
So the point is, this is very just situation and we could we could honestly sit here for 24 hours and go game by game and we pick out games. This was totally the wrong level of analysis. This just happens to be like a hyper-specific spot where they're so sustainable because the personnel, the coaching, the professionalism is so good that they do almost they almost perform robotically spot to spot. But that's again, it's so case specific to a championship team with top players over the course of years sure I get it. 

48:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I know you're looking for specific things and and um, this is not uncommon in the space, so I don't want to make it seem like it is. Um, I'm just, I'm more curious with this type of handicapping because it's it's very foreign to me. I don't do it. I obviously have my opinions. I'm pretty opinionated person. I'm rooted in them a lot of times, but um, yeah, I'm just want to get some perspective. 

48:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So what if? Okay, well, hold up on this same stuff. Trends wise, yeah, because I actually do. I do believe in this stuff. I, I really do in, not in the way that the average guy gives out, but for, like, when it's actually the same team playing, like even Dallas versus San Fran. Yeah, like San Fran has actually dumby-dum, yes, in the last couple of games. Yeah, if you're going to now go in and be like shocked that San Fran won that game, it's like, okay, they basically played the same team last year in the playoffs. Exactly, they've played before. Exactly they play. They've played before. Like, okay, maybe they have something, maybe the styles mesh. San fran has a very unique style of play. Yep, so there's something to that. 

49:15
But when I, when I get into these trends, it's like rob mentioned small sample size. So five and oh. Right, first off, as we've mentioned, that also means five and one last six. True, yeah, it's five and oh, that means five and one last six, because otherwise you would, we would go six and oh. But what if it's four and one last six? Because otherwise you would, we would go six and oh, but what if it's four and one? Okay, does that have the same effect? Now, what if it's four and one in the last five, cause then that's also four and two in the last six. What if it's, you know, 10 in a row? What if it's nine in a row? Like, where do you actually draw a strong suit? Like what? Why five? No, this is what I struggle with a lot too. 

49:51 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Yeah Well, a lot too. Yeah well, I'll answer that question for you. It's not about the number for me again, because when I'm doing this, as I said, I'm going down the schedule, so I really am like, so into their, like into their psychologists, as if I'm in the locker room and I'm seeing what they're doing and it just is again the pattern where bad, bad, afc game, nfc, every single time it just so, so repetitive and consistent. And let me flip it for a second because I think we could go to a different type of angle. And I do want to just repeat again this is so unique to NFL football because I realized, at least in my witnessing, that to beat NFL football you really need to be looking at how the teams perform in such spots, specific environments. 

50:30
So let's look at Cincinnati. This upcoming week they're playing Seattle. I just played Cincinnati last night at minus two and a half, my first official play of the week, and I actually don't like Cincinnati generally, like it's not a team that I bet a lot. I think they're kind of lackadaisical, particularly before week eight. They kind of just screw around early season. Obviously Burroughs hurt, although kind of just screw around early season. 

50:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Obviously burrows hurt, although I think, if you guys watch the the tape from the air fine, yeah, looked fine in the air yeah, what? 

50:56 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
yeah, bro, I went on the show on sunday. I was like this guy should take a month off. He's hurt. He's coming around like, doing like perfect footwork, chop, step 360s in the pie. I was like, bro, what happened? Man? 

51:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
he actually evaded sacks in the, a game like with his legs, where it looked like he couldn't walk the week before. I'll never whatever. 

51:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, you have a good number right now on Cincinnati. 

51:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It went up to three. It went up to three yeah. 

51:19 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Right. So one of the things that I really love and this is why I took Las Vegas last night because they were on an 0-3 sample and three and O to start the season, and I felt like green Bay was highly unsustainable and Las Vegas was also unsustainable, but coming from the opposite angles. One was too hot, one was too cold. Perfect merge to buy one and sell one in the one-off environment, and I kind of feel like this is what Cincinnati versus Seattle is. If you look at Seattle, seattle is three and one on the season. They hammered the giants 24 to three. 

51:50
The giants have been absolutely terrible. The previous week they covered a home game against the panthers, who are oh and five, oh four and one against the spread, and the previous week they beat detroit on the road and that game was tight. Um the quarter. Who's the quarterback for detroit? Uh, golf golf threw a pick six in the third or fourth quarter, which was the entire game and they lost, I believe actually yeah, they did yep, and it was 31, 31, I believe, going to ot and. 

52:20
But again, just understanding, there's something guns picks loves and I picked this up from guns picks is looking at the box score and understanding what plays are outlierish and, you know, not expected to continue. You know a pick six is one of the most outlierish single plays in the sport. So just understanding that game, seattle covered that game because of a pick six by a quarterback who's only thrown, I believe, two or three picks all year, so it's even more outliers for the player. But even go back to last year, which I think is a really important point. Last year Seattle went into Detroit as an underdog and also won a high-scoring game 48-45. So that's a pattern and that's a repetition where they function well against Detroit as an underdog on the road, both high-scoring, back-and-forth games. So this is where it gets interesting If you're allowing yourself to say that they perform very similarly in similar spots. Last year they were 1-1 ATS on the road at the AFC. They covered up the chargers, they were plus five and they they won the game just authoritatively, 37 to 23. But I think if we're going to correlate cincinnati to um, then they also played the chiefs last year. Who's cincinnati more close to the chargers or the chiefs? The chiefs, they play the chiefs so tough. So if we're going to use that as a corollary, last year, late season in December, seattle went into Kansas City and did not cover the spread 24 to 10. And next week's game, I think, is going to correlate to that. And again, I think a crucial point is just looking at Detroit at 3-1, beating the Giants, the Panthers and the Lions. It's just not representative of much. It's a fraudulent 3-1. 

53:51
And just a final point on this one, but I think it's interesting. Cincinnati comes into this game. I believe 0-3-1 against the spread. They're a bye team and they've performed great at home outside of the division in the last two or three years. You guys remember that game on Monday Night Football. They pushed against the Rams 19-16. I do. That was a cover line at minus two and a half. It's the same number. And not only that, that was a backdoor. You guys remember the Rams got a late touchdown, just whatever. So that's why I'm on this and that's the situational analysis that I try to go through on that. 

54:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay. So one of the principles of sports betting is obviously just trying to identify spots, teams that might be undervalued or overvalued in market. If nobody was ever able to do this, they would never be placing a bet, because in order for you to place a bet, you have to be, especially if it's a side in the NFL. You think one team is overvalued or one team is undervalued. So you're attempting to try to do this in one way, and one of the ways you do it is by looking at the past games and kind of deciphering a little bit or like creating the story of this team might be overvalued because of the opponents that they played. Maybe the matchup was well suited to them and I completely get that, but a lot of it. 

55:04
So what I want to get into now is like we, aside from you mentioning Jared Goff or maybe Joe Burrow looking a little bit better last week, we haven't really gotten into any player level analysis. Right, what happens in the situations where you potentially find a spot on a team that you really like? You say this this team, I'm adamant, is overvalued this week. But now you go and you look at an injury report. Like do you look at the injury report over the course of the week. Do you think that that matters? Do you think people um overweight that? How do you bring in the player aspect of what transpires over the course of the week as well? 

55:39 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I think the players in nfl make a huge difference and it's interesting because in basketball it doesn't. You guys I'm not sure how closely you guys follow a handicapped nba, but one of the most noteworthy points over the last few years is that when the best players don't play, the backups play better. And it's the insanity of basketball, the psychology of it. But I think the nfl. 

56:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm gonna cut you off really quickly, shark, because I I actually just want to stop right there and and ask you if you think that that is something that will continue going forwards, because me and johnny bet the nba and like my only bets in the nba tend to come on injury news, where you get this player is out starched, yeah, and you end up getting a great number. 

56:20
It you know you take a team plus seven. It closes as a as a pick them because of injury news and then you find out they didn't really need kawaii leonard yeah, just like kawaii was useless lebron I guess he doesn't matter. Like it's hard for me to believe that that is the case, like gonna be the case going forwards. And that's where I get into the sample size thing. Right, it happened over the course of a couple seasons now, but is that something that's going to consistently happen going forwards? 

56:46 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I think it's hard to predict, because I think that we don't really know if this cultural aspect of basketball is going to continue, and cultural in the sense that it's this AAU generation. They're not as competitive, they don't hate each other, so that's part of it. They just they're not out there to just demolish teams in the regular season and that's why and that's part of the reason psychologically why these guys don't play. Of course, yes, it is analytics based. You know whoever's? Of course, yes, it is analytics-based. Whoever's running the analytics department is saying that they shouldn't play back-to-backs or these tough travel spots. But I think just in my opinion. But if you went back 30 years, I don't think Michael Jordan is letting the analytics team take him off the court. I think the competitive self was just bigger back then. They were less bro-y with the other players in the league. 

57:37
So, to answer your question, I don't know if it's going to stop, because I think this generation does have sustainability in the way they act towards each other and their competitive quality. So I don't know, I think it might sustain, at least for this generation. I think there might be a bit of a regression in the next generation that comes up maybe eight to 10 years from now or something like that. 

57:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Fair enough. I interrupted you on the other question, which was in regards to the player valuation in the NFL. 

57:54 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Oh, yeah, yeah. No, I think it does matter in the NFL gigantically honestly, you know, I think that you know you take a player off the roster how you know, depending on how big of a player he is on the team, it's going to matter and it's going to be very accurate. Oftentimes, with those lines, of course, there are certain players where it doesn't matter. A good example of this is the quarterback situation with indianapolis. You know, gardner minshu is really. 

58:19
I mean, he could probably be a starter, in my opinion not a playoff caliber team starter. I think he's right up there with a guy like desmond ritter or a couple of these other guys, because you saw what he did. He came in relief against Tennessee. Tennessee had beaten them four straight times in the division. I had a wager on the Colts and I see Richardson go down with a shoulder and I'm like, oh, here we go. Minshew comes in. He looks even more fluid than Richardson and so that's a great example of the player mattering. But how unique it is where sometimes the quarterback goes down, the backup's a disaster. Sometimes the quarterback goes down, the backup's a disaster, sometimes the backup's great. So again, I think, without question, it matters in terms of player evaluation. 

58:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
One last topic I want to get into, um, in regards to the whole process for you, um, so I do my research on guests and I I went through your timeline and followed you for the last couple weeks and specifically, uh, your videos, your handicapping style, um, but with with the game that we've talked about the most over the course of this show so far Chiefs and Vikings last week you go out and you bet the Chiefs early, minus five and a half. The money comes in on the Vikings over the course of the week and then we eventually get to a price of minus three and a half. I'm curious how you evaluate those market moves, if you put any stock into them whatsoever. Do you just feel like, okay, now I get a great bargain, even better bargain on the Chiefs, I'm going to add to it. Is there a pause? Do you have any sort of concern? What goes through your head when you see the market move against you on a game? 

59:46 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I mean, naturally, you don't love it. You know it's and I think we're always working to not worry about public opinion and you know the market movement but you see it and you don't love it. Not only do you not love it from the standpoint of does somebody know something? I don't know, but you're obviously, you know, getting a worse line. And who wants a two point worse line? I don't usually double down. I will say that I'm very much in, I'm very passionate about bankroll management, so I don't like to just keep, you know, double because I feel like it opens up a can of worms. People say this to me all the time. Well, you know, why don't you take the money line here? You know they're going to win. It's plus two, and I said that because that's basically an entire different, um, you know level of analysis. It's a different samples for you and uh. So I don't double down, but I don't fear it because I do trust the analysis of the game. I would say it's more important in other sports, Baseball being a great example of this actually, because obviously we just talked about NBA Oftentimes it goes the opposite direction in the line move because of the players sitting out and just playing down to the moment and whatnot. But baseball, I think if you see a significant steam and I think baseball has been very favorite heavy the last few seasons I think there's just a massive talent gap in the league. 

01:00:53
But a couple games that have just come off the top of my head Early season I had a game I believe it was Tampa Bay was playing at home against Houston and I had the game at like minus 125. I had taken the underdog, I believe. I think I was on Houston or something Somebody said. I think Jordan Alvarez was out for that game late and the line jumped up from 125 to 185. And I was sitting there with a Houston ticket and I hit up one of my guys at the time and I said what is going on in this game? Is this a blowout loss? And he's like, yeah, it's a blowout loss and I did see that over the course of the last few seasons in baseball. 

01:01:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Big line jump, you're probably in the bad spot in baseball. What would you say to someone who believes that sports betting's primarily a game of chance and not skill? Because we hear that a lot in the space nowadays. There's a lot of new people that are getting involved in it and they're like ah, it's just a coin flip. Whether it's like the vegas knows, outcomes are predetermined. Uh, you know, you have no chance of winning in the long run. What do you say to people who think that there's no skill in sports betting? 

01:01:51 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Well, I would say what we just discussed in terms of, you know, the psychological analysis. One of the things that I talk about all the time is that they're still human beings. You know, athletes are human beings. They have the same patterns as you, the average person, and they just have more consistent process more often than not, which actually makes them more predictable. If you're willing to look at it In terms of the whole rank thing, the luck thing, one of the analogies that I really like to give to people is that sports books are tabulating averages, so the line is supposed to be an exact final point of the game. 

01:02:24
That's what people don't oftentimes understand. You're overpaying on the money line because the money line has a higher probability to hit, so you're overpaying because you have a higher probability. When you're betting a minus 110 spread, you're supposed to push that line basically every single time. That's supposed to be the sharp adjusted average. That's why people think it's rigged and I always say to people it's supposed to get back to that, no matter what, at minus 110. That's the pick-em line at minus 7 or whatever it is. That's the pick them line at minus seven or whatever it is. And in terms of the ringness. People just don't understand that they are technically gambling on a new, on a point of neutral within the within the market. 

01:02:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, at the end of the day, the closing line is what the market is determined to be the most likely out of him of the game over time. That's where the results are supposed to converge. 

01:03:08 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Yeah, and and one, just one final point that I try to bring to people in terms of their everyday life. If somebody is a runner and they're in shape and we go out every single day for 30 days and we record their mile time and we just have neutral circumstances, so they average out every day at like 620 or something 622, 618, this, this, that Then all of a sudden, on day 31, we say, all right, we're going to bet against your average and we set it at 621 and a half and then they go out and they run 621 of the number. People are like how'd you get it? It's like because they're robotic, they're professional, they've got great process and we tabulated their average for 30 days. They're going to repeat that, that and that's pro sports more than college sports. 

01:03:49
They're. They do the exact same thing every day. Books have a handle on it. That's why people say betting nba basketball is the hardest thing in the world because they're so damn consistent on the number. But it's just like a regular person that does the same thing every day with the content that you're continuously putting out there um, on youtube, on twitter. 

01:04:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What do you want people who view your content to take away from it? 

01:04:09 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
it's a good question. I mean I try to. Just through the course of five years, it's changed a lot. You know, when I first started, I didn't really know what I was doing. As I mentioned, I was in a car group. My brother started doing it and I was like let me see what's going on. I didn't know what content was, and I also think it's hard to get people to click your videos if you're just doing bland stuff. So it took me a while to figure out what I want to do. 

01:04:30
And what I really always want to do is I just want to bring the best conversation to people, just like we're doing right here. I want people to feel very engaged with us. I want people to click the video because when we're in their living room and they're watching, they feel like they're right there with us. And when we can bring that depth of conversation and the energy behind it with sports betting, it a very unique thing. Most sports bettors are gamblers. They're not particularly conversational uh, they're a bit insular in their, in their life they're. They don't express what they're doing, their superstition, their anger, their stress, a lot of it. 

01:04:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And we can bring, hopefully, a much more fluid way to converse within sports I will say sharky, like at the end of the day, shark, sorry, uh, very well spoken and uh, the points like when I watch a video, I actually do get fired up when you're like I wouldn't say yelling at the cam, when you're like firing up, it's a fire up Similar to like Book of Trent. Same deal Like when he's putting out those TikTok videos. Guys I know we talked about on the podcast with Shipper. Shipper was saying he's one of the most negative in the space. Yada, yada, yada man when he does those first touchdown videos and he's just like usually like Travis Scott's playing or something, and then he's like and he gives out the first touchdown. I was like it was always this guy and he fires up and he does like his patented thing. 

01:05:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Bro, those videos are hilarious, they are so entertaining patent and think bro, those videos are hilarious, they are so entertaining, it's crazy. The thing about sports betting content is, at the end of the day, the consumer is deciding whether or not they are going to watch. So that's whether they're going to watch for value, like they think that they're getting actual value in terms of the picks, um, that they can tail those picks. Whether it's for information, that's a different story. It could be just purely for entertainment. It could be a combo of all those we have. There's a, there's a Twitter handle that goes by bet pod ratings that reviews every single podcast we put out here on circles off, whether that's us or 90 degrees, and a lot of times they'll just review something and they'll be like could not get through this podcast, zero to 10 or whatever it's like, well, it wasn't directed for you right At the end of the day, it was directed for a different audience and you're not the type of person that's going to want to consume that. So that's why it's always important to find the context of the content creator, what they want to put out there. 

01:06:45
I kind of want to end with this on the content creation, because you can correct me if I'm wrong. I couldn't find a public record on you anywhere, like any third-party platform that you're tracking on for transparency purposes. Obviously, johnny's wearing the BetStamp shirt. Now we call in the company. That's something that's of value to us. I'm not saying every single person on the planet has to track everything. I do think transparency is extremely important in the space. As a content creator, how do you defend yourself as a sports betting expert to your audience? Like someone comes out new. They've never consumed anything you've done before. They just watched this podcast on Circles Off. They want to see I want to see what this guy's all about. How do you defend yourself as an expert, as a pro, when there's nothing out there that could indicate that other than your word? 

01:07:31 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
basically, uh, it's a good question. I mean I have tracked it's very well noted on my channel over the last four and a half years. I just don't post it continuously and it's actually a mental health type of thing. I really firmly believe that as a sports handicapper, you should fall into the sample and it's. I used to do it with poker too. Actually, when I would go to casinos I wouldn't check my bankroll for a month because I'd be so focused on being in the moment and letting my analysis stand for itself. Because I do think when you preoccupy and people do do this their record becomes such an obsession that they're constantly chasing back and forth. That is why I don't post it on a regular basis. 

01:08:10
I have it fully tabulated, but I personally like to follow the sample and I also just don't truly like to market myself in a sensationalistic way. 

01:08:18
People are going to follow because they feel good energy and they connect with what's going on. They're not necessarily going to follow because I went 5-0 or 0-3 on a given day to fade and this, this, and that it's just not entirely the direction that I've always wanted to go. I was never charging for picks. It was never a pick service like that it was more of a, as I said, a community and energy where I want people to connect with the energy, less so than purely if we won or lost in the last week or two or whatever it is. I know people are very, very and I'm not saying the three of us, but I know people are so, so sensationalized in recency bias. It's one of our deep flaws as a human species and I try not to give people either the massive positive recency or the massive negative, because I just think that they shouldn't be following for either side of that were on a panel together in Vegas, and I think the inherent challenge that I have is I lived through this right. 

01:09:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I started betting when I was 16 years old, and probably from 16 to 26,. Just like lost years worth of salaries betting on sports because I had no knowledge of the space. And even as I was seeking out knowledge, I just constantly get found myself coming across stuff that I thought was meaningful and valuable but wasn't in the long run, like, oh, we've got these free picks websites and we got these people advertising these records that are amazing. I'm just going to copy their picks and I'm going to be a millionaire. 

01:09:46
Obviously, that didn't work out for me and we have a new age now of of regulated, of regulated betting across north america, right with so many states in the us uh, ontario and canada, where there's so many new people to the space that I feel sorry for the people that jump into the space and they can't decipher what is good from bad, who's a real creator from a fake creator, and that's why it's always been a passion of mine or like something kind of like a brand value for the hammer of. We're going to try to be as transparent as possible. If we lose, we're just going to own it. If we win, obviously we're going to promote it. We're a content company. We want that to be part of it. But just be who we are and let the audience make a decision on whether or not they want to consume our stuff. Going forwards, I just think that's the one thing, shark, that scares me about the space right now. 

01:10:36 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
For people who are coming into it, it's just they have no way of deciphering the good from the bad I completely agree with you, without question, and I've said this for years and you know, as I said, I do what I do for very specific reasons that are very much less centered on gambling Twitter and more so the flow of life type of stuff. People who have followed me for every year know exactly what the record is. Trust me, we recap positive and negative every single day. You'll never see a day un-recapped. But I completely agree with you, as we said I think we said it off the record but thousands of accounts, thousands and all marketed with some sort of reasonable agreeability, where people are going to see it and think this guy's the big winner and not understand the reasoning of the capping. 

01:11:19
Did it win or did it lose? Was it the right cap? Are they sustainable? I'm right there with you on every single angle. I think it's chaotic and I think it's very misleading. I think there's a good percentage of gambling Twitter that is making a dollar off the followers not their own wagers bankrupting people and then really kind of just taking that money and running away. So I think the corruption is real and you know it's definitely unregulated in a poor way. 

01:11:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think You've been very generous with your time. We really appreciate you joining us this week. We ask a couple of questions at the end to each one of our guests, so we'll start with the plus EV and minus EV move. This is a segment we came up with a couple months ago where me and Johnny typically give one thing in life that we think is plus EV and one thing that we think is minus EV. It can be related to sports betting or it can just be anything in life, so I'll throw it to you shark one thing that you think is plus ev and one thing you think that one thing you think is minus ev um, it's a good question. 

01:12:19 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
I think in life, one thing that is really important for a sports better. You need to be taking care of your body and your mind, and you know I talk about this on a regular basis. You should be working out five days a week, and it's not so you can become a fitness model, it's so your mind can work clearly and you can feel a good personal energy about yourself. If you trust yourself more, you make better decisions, you see the games more clearly and you just feel less stress in general. So I always encourage people it doesn't matter if you're overweight, you're underweight. Whatever you are, go work out, you'll be a better person. And minus EB, I would say really, really. You see, too many people and I've done it myself have poor bankroll management and I think it's very, very consistent. 

01:12:59
Now in gambling Twitter, People are just betting. You know they have 500 bucks, they're betting $250 a game and then they're gone, and I think that that's something that I had to learn back in the day. You know you're not betting lottery tickets. Parleys are going to get you nowhere and, more than anything, you really can't expect professional results unless you treat the endeavor as a professional, and it doesn't matter if you're not a professional. You have to treat it as a professional and you have to do that with bankroll management. You need 50 units minimum in a bankroll and otherwise you're going to have too much turmoil with the volatility of the bets going back and forth. 

01:13:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So very important stuff brother, two great pieces of advice. I could not agree more. The positive ev play on the, the gym stuff and working out, absolutely uh, and it goes for everyone in the entire world, not just for sports bettors. And then on the bankroll stuff I haven't mentioned this in a while but, um, I do actually believe that right now, with sports betting becoming so popular, there's a lot of people who are listening to this podcast, who are starting to win, who are grinding out an edge and are now being like you know what I can actually make money betting sports. And to all those people, by the way, congratulations, cause you got to a step that most people will never get to. 

01:14:08
However, I do want to just warn everyone right now, this doesn't mean you're scot-free winning forever. At some point, whatever you might be betting, that you have an edge on right now will go away. And if you do not role manage correctly, if you do not actually bankroll manage correctly and potentially even underbet versus your perceived edge right now, you will go bust. It's so easy to go bust in this game right now and too many people I see. Right now. 

01:14:35
The biggest mistake I see amongst younger bettors who are starting to win is they're just overbetting, and I'm not talking about what Sharky's saying $500 betting $250 a game. That's obviously ridiculous. Most people will see that. But I'm talking about people who are having a perceived edge on something and they're finally starting to grow a bankroll up to like five thousand, six thousand, seven thousand, and then they'll grow a bankroll nine thousand like oh, this is an amazing play, which it is and they'll toss like eleven hundred bucks on it. 

01:15:00
Like at the end of the day you got to realize that's truly a negative ev bet at that point in your betting bankroll. It's a great bet in general and if you had more money you'd want to max that out with whatever you could, but at that time it's like genuinely a bad bet. So my number one advice to anyone, especially younger people, betting right now we're starting to win is like don't be afraid to bet smaller. Don't think you're leaving money on the table. Betting smaller it's actually a better plus EV move for growing your role in the total. We've all learned the lessons and like it's hard, you never really know unless someone, unless it happens to you. But like don't overbet your role Serious. 

01:15:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What do you say, Rob? No, I'm totally in agreement with you. We've done. We did an entire episode on bankroll management, but this is for people who are winning right now. 

01:16:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No-transcript. Know who I'm talking to, don't? 

01:16:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
do it Absolutely. Final question shark If you could go back five years and talk to a previous version of yourself, what advice would you give to your former self? 

01:16:33 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
to a previous version of yourself. What advice would you give to your former self? Another great question I think I would tell myself to be a little bit more selective with people I associate with. I'm a very naturally forgiving person. I love people. It's the baseline for my channel. Therefore, I always see positive in people, because I believe positivity is in people. But some people just are unforgivable and you're going to spend time with people that are going to suck your energy out and drain you. And I would say to myself just be more selective, be more disciplined and realize that cutting people out is not necessarily being a terrible person yourself. 

01:17:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Good advice, good advice. I think if I could go back five years and talk to a previous version of myself, I might give myself the exact same advice, really, yeah, just be careful with who you associate with. I think that's really important in the sports betting industry. 

01:17:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Do you think so? 

01:17:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, everyone is pitching themselves. 

01:17:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But who would you not associate with that? You did. 

01:17:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not going to name names. 

01:17:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm not going to name names, but there'd going to name names, but there'll be a lot of people, a lot of people in terms of, like your betting. You're saying betting life local, whatever, like it's. 

01:17:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just sometime you know a lot of people. They can come forward and be like how they can pitch you on, how they can be an asset to you in life, and you really got to think it through. More is all I'm getting at, but especially in betting, especially 100 in betting his name well, it's not his real name. We'll tell him where to follow, you go ahead uh sharks and 

01:17:55 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
sports 88 on twitter now x I think we're all still getting used to that and um sharky waters nation on youtube. Those are the two channels, and I will be doing an nba show which I will be premiering. I don't want to drop it on here, but on october 20th next friday a preview issue. So exciting stuff. As you guys said, the winter, winter sports jump off today. It's going to be a great time. Thanks for having me, guys, powerful stuff here. I'd love to do it again sometime appreciate, appreciate you joining us here today. 

01:18:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Shark, if you did enjoy this interview, you made it all the way to the end. Make sure you smash that like button down below. Subscribe here on circles. Offcles Off as well. And remember ride the wave or get out of the water. 

01:18:35 - Sharky Waters Nation (Guest)
Big bomb bangers.