00:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
what's with these sportsbooks offering absolutely insane bets that are not going to grade ever in history. Like what, what? What country will aliens invade first? You usa, like china, like whatever, and it's like usa is a favorite. Minus 200. Like who's betting on this? 

00:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to circles off episode number 130 right here, part of the hammer Network presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. I am Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from Betstamp in our new digs. 

00:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Brand new studio. That's two new in a row. I had a new hat last week, same hat this week and this thing's shaping up. Nice it is. This is that thing of beauty, incomplete. Still, yes, we're buying the final, the final touches. You can see, I've got my trusty Mike arm. Rob's still on the regular Mike stand. What are we going to do? You going to get an arm too? 

00:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to get an arm, but I want it to be like the low swivel, where the the arm itself is low. You, the arm itself is low. You want the Joe Rogan arm Bingo. 

01:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, that'll be good. We've got some signed sports memorabilia here. We're going to do something, I think, starting next week. Cool idea we had we're going to decorate the studio, one piece at a time. Today I'll pick up. This is probably maybe the favorite, most favorite sports memorabilia piece I own. I'm a big collector. Right here, what we have. 

01:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're the Darren Revell of sports collecting. 

01:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Basically you're not collecting bus tickets and uh you know stuff from the unions back in the days, but you love your memorabilia. I do like the memorabilia. I'm particular in what I get. A lot of people like to hoard a lot of stuff and they'll just kind of take everything. I want the piece to be something that's really cool or a specific memory to me. So, for example, if I'm going to get a signed football helmet, I'm either going to get a player that had sentimental value to me like maybe won me a cool bet, won me a fantasy league, something like that or just a legendary one that I think is really cool. So the one I'm holding in my hand right now Minnesota Vikings helmet replica signed by Zach, if you want to grab that Randy Moss, himself legend of the game, and he for a while did an inscription in his signature which I was lucky enough to get one of those where he signed it and then put the inscription underneath straight cash homie, straight cash homie. 

02:24 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So because of that, in then put the inscription underneath straight cash homie. 

02:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Straight cash, homie. So because of that, in combination with the inscription, that is definitely one of my favorite pieces of sports memorabilia I own. That'll be introduced to the studio this week, probably going to put that up above my head for next week and then we'll see what else we can change out. Every week we'll try to talk about something else. Pretty cool. 

02:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What if we did something where we took the numbers of the episode and tried to integrate something new with that number? Is that too hard to do? Like this is episode number 30, right, there's lots of 30s in sports hockey, especially hockey goalies. 

02:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you're saying with memorabilia, or just with With memorabilia. 

03:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's going to be tough. 

03:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's going to be tough, right, that's going to be tough. I don't mean how much we're going to spend on memorabilia here. 

03:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, especially like good stuff, because that was Marty Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist. 

03:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, I actually have a signed Lundqvist picture. 

03:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What if we could get a Chris Osgood wore 30? What if we could get his? You remember the Chris Osgood mask? Of course, of course it was disgusting. 

03:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Chris Osgood. One of the few goalies to play with the player helmet. 

03:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

03:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The modified player helmet Ilya. 

03:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Brzgalov. He had the legendary clip. You remember the clip I'm talking about, Of course. 

03:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Do we have it? 

03:36 - Zack Phillips (Other)
That's hockey, you know, it's only game. 

03:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Why you have to be mad. He's a good guy. 

03:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He may be tired to live here, because here is a November month, it's a minus 32. 

03:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Could you imagine? Oh man, I die every time I hear that. It's a minus 37 in the winter months. 

03:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's too funny man, Breeze Galov. Good Wait, did we? No, Thank God, I thought we missed this guy's number. 

04:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay never mind Dude. 30 is easy, Steph Curry yeah. 

04:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't have anything, steph Curry. Well, we'll see. If I have something good, we'll save it for the episode number to unveil it. Yes. 

04:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We don't have to do it. I was just throwing it out there. It makes it so much harder. Well, Johnny and I had an idea. 

04:21 - Zack Phillips (Other)
We talked about something. We might start to implement that, but we're not going to tell people. They have to figure it out. There'll be, like what are they called? Easter eggs? Yeah, we'll have like Easter eggs, but like you have to tell us when you find out and then, if you figure it, maybe we'll do something like that. 

04:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you figure it out, the pinnacle swag. I like that idea. If you have any ideas out there, drop them down in the comments below. We're all ears. We're all ears for whatever we could do for this studio Right behind me. So we have this wall of pictures that goes all the way around the studio. You can't see some of them on camera here, but it's nice when you walk in and you see all these. But I've coined the the wall behind me, bad beat corner. These are some of the worst beats that I've ever suffered in my life, and one that johnny suffered, which I stuck far away in the corner. But this fail, mary, over here. I remember this like it was yesterday. I still can't even believe this was real life did you lose money on? 

05:20
that I lost this game on the fail mary. I was watching it with my wife who I don't know if we were married at the time in our condo across the street from where we are now basically and I was I was in. I sat in silence for half an hour. How like this cannot happen in a sporting event. It should be impossible for this to happen. This is maximum security in the kentucky derby. They're the bumping bullshit that happened was like 65 to 1. 

05:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you had a 65 to 1. He won, disqualified that one. Obviously a lot of people. 

05:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, this was a joke in of itself. 

05:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Based on the odds. You just can't. It's tough to get much worse than that. If you think you won, and then yeah, obviously. 

05:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not a huge horse racing guy. I actually went to the track a lot with my dad when I was a kid. But like I can't tell you what's worthy of a disqualification and what's not, but apparently this one was really bad. Whatever, this one right here, super Bowl. I couldn't get a nice view of Richard Sherman's face when he saw that this was a passing play instead of a run, which is actually one of my favorite images in sports history ever. But that was another loser for me. Chalk up another loser to tom brady and the fucking page. I actually lost. 

06:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That was uh roi wise. That was my only losing super bowl in history. That one, yeah. Yeah, I lost on the game overall. Like I'm not talking about, I don't actually think that that play impacted me significantly, but I lost money on that super bowl. 

06:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Every other super bowl I've either won or broken, even that particular super bowl was the first time I ever publicly got into a spat with the philly godfather because he was tweeting throughout the entire game of how like this was. I knew that the seahawks, the seahawks were the play all the, all the joes on the patriots and whatever. And I basically as soon as as soon as it lost was a great opportunity to dig in and poke the bear and be like dude have you ever been on sports before? And whatever. 

07:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And that got into a pretty big public spad listen, obviously rob rob printed the photos for this one. I sent in a couple requests but when I came in and saw the photos I was to my surprise. I was reminded of a terrible beat from a couple weeks ago when dylan dennis lost the logan paul by knockout. That wasn't really a knockout, due to the time when we blew up that episode, when I did that rant on that episode, nobody had known that the time stopped. And then I saw a week later people started making TikTok videos. Be like, oh, look at this, look at the countdown. The time was this. You heard it here first, on Circles Off HQ. 

08:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Circles Off Premiere. 

08:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Premiere. A few here first on circles off hq circles off premiere premiere. A few other photos we have in here, one above rob's head that I'm looking at might not be able to see it, but I I'm embarrassed because I see what rob did. Is he put? He put jose bautista, one of the bat flip, one of the greatest moments in modern day jay's history. He's got kawwhi Leonard the shot versus Philly, send the raps to the conference, final Vince Carter, the dunk contest. And then, when it comes to our beloved Maple Leafs, the best pick he could find for the franchise's best moment in modern history is John Tavares scoring to advance past the first round for the first time in 20 plus years. 

08:51
I challenge you which. They then almost were swept in the second round and lost it in game five. 

08:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The Leafs. As much as I love them, they're such a sad franchise that I actually challenge you to come up with a more memorable moment in the last 20 years such a sad franchise that I actually challenge you to come up with. No, there's probably more memorable moment in the last 20 years? 

09:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you can't last 20 um more memorable than this. So the last 20, the previous moment I would say would be no, that's it last 20. So, like I'm going back to 2003, there is none. 

09:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean I could have printed off stuff from earlier, but I want stuff in our lifetime that mattered to us that's it right. 

09:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, I mean, listen, matt sundin scored an absolutely electric goal in 2002 versus the uh hurricane, no, the hurricanes. Oh yeah, this was in game six. Think about how nuts people would go if that happened now. So leafs were in game six. Um, it was one. Nothing. Hurricanes at home in game six. It was 1-0. Hurricanes at home in game six. This was the conference finals. So if you win this one, you go to game seven. Win that, go to the cup finals. And Sundin, who is obviously our best player captain at the time, scores in the final minute with the net empty to tie it up. 

09:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Ridiculous. It was nuts and it was just like a gold mouth scramble that he ended up putting the puck in. 

10:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We lost an ot I, I, uh. 

10:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I remember that day vividly because I didn't watch the game. It was my first training session to be a sport check employee. I was getting trained on how to sell bikes and inline skates at some hotel in mississauga and my dad had to come pick me up from this training. This was like before uber and stuff like that, where I could easily. So he's there and he's like come on, let's go, let's go, let's go. Leafs are going to overtime and we actually listened to them lose on the way home. No, why would you go to that shift? It was the first of all. I didn't want this. This was see how it comes full circle. My parents went to, went to the mall one day and there was like some sort of job fair happening and they get home and they're like hey, rob, guess what? We got you a job at SportCheck. I'm like why I don't want to work? I don't want to work. 

10:54
They're like no, you need to work, you need to learn. I was 15 years old at that time. You need to work, you need to understand. 

10:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's how they get you. 

11:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They got me and I had to go to this training on the Leafs game six, which they lost to the Hurricanes, and my dad couldn't even watch the end of it because he had to pick me up. 

11:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Call comes full circle. So we're going to go ahead and hopefully within the next year. 

11:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That is no longer the best moment, but speaking of the best, Speaking of the best Pinnacle Sportsbook the best sportsbook in Ontario Find out what pros have known for decades Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. It's 25 years in business for these guys and it's for a reason. They're very solid Everyday, competitive odds, just a great sportsbook experience overall. So if you are in Canada, make sure you use code HAMMER when you sign up to Pinnacle. Check them out. You must be 19 plus available in the us and, as always, we preach it every single time. Please play responsibly as well means a lot. A couple big things wait, I got one. 

11:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
First we were just talking about the bad beat corner. I got a beef to pick with a lot of people you know on social media. Here I'm gonna define here what is and what isn't a bad beat. All right, right, I got to get into it. 

12:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We do need a universal definition for this. 

12:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So this is just genuine. There's so many things where it's like a tough loss, okay, a tough loss, all right. You know you had a big bet. It went to overtime. You lost an OT. You had a lot of chances. Game could have gone the other way. Whatever Overtime you lost in OT, you had a lot of chances, game could have gone the other way. Whatever you lost Tough okay. 

12:28
Here is what is absolutely not a bad beat Alabama playing versus Auburn this past weekend Fourth and whatever Fourth, and goal from like the 25 or the 30. Or the 31, I think it was and they throw it and he catches a touchdown and they win. You're like, oh yeah, auburn, what a horrible beat. No, and they throw it and he catches a touchdown and they win. Like you're like, oh yeah, auburn, what a horrible beat. Like, no, the game was still on, they were trying to win the game. They came back and won the game. Like that's not a bad beat. 

12:51
Even with like totals in the NFL, if you have the over and a team is down 10, they go the length of the field, they kick the field goal with 10 seconds left to try the the onside. Like that was the optimal move in the game. That is honestly not a bad beat. You got unlucky and sure tough, but that was still the correct play. That went on in the game. All right. Bad beat though zay flowers running it in. That's a suboptimal move. They needed to kneel that ball or slide and the game is over. By running it in he he actually gave the chargers a chance to win the game, cause now they can go kick that field goal and then onside kick touchdown. Like their win probability If he slides is 100. Yeah, their win probability If he goes in it's probably 99 point something, but it's still a difference. So when we come to all these bad beats like we mentioned here, like the bad beat is that fail. 

13:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Mary play. 

13:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, like that's a it's not even real, it's. It's like he didn't catch it, dude, and they gave him a simulation. 

13:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Watching this hat like it's not. It didn't even happen. 

13:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It wasn't real, exactly and same same. Like this, this logan paul thing like that never happened. Like that's such a bad beat because that. But you know what the, the, the marshall lynch play we got to remove from the bad beat corner so here's what I was going to say. 

14:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And, and then there's another one here. There's a kyle seager one right behind me over here. Okay, no one knows what the hell that is, but it holds a special place in my heart because this was before the extra inning rules in baseball that you have now, which were now you have a runner on second to start extra innings, right, that game was a total of eight and a half that I bet under. It was zero, zero going into extras. And that moment, right there was when it went over, it was kyle seager hitting a grand slam zero, zero going into extras. 

14:38
Like you, it's not a guarantee you're gonna win, but you're upwards of 99. At that point, absolutely, it's like you're in, you have like a substantial lead on your bet, you're in a very strong position to win. That, to me, is like where I feel like you're in a very I don't know what the exact probability should be, but when you're in a very, very strong position to win and it doesn't, that to me is what qualifies as a bad bet. So we can, we can debate the marshall, the uh, darius butler, or interception over here yeah, because that's the equivalent. 

15:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Equivalent of if they just handed it to lynch, he got stuffed and they got stuffed again like it's not it can happen and it's not super high probability. 

15:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I can tell you, like watching that super bowl, I thought it was like over and it's stupid to think that way, but I thought it was done. The seahawks are winning. They were trailing, but that was second down, I believe. Uh, they had, they had a first and goal. 

15:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think this play happened on second down yeah, so they did run it and he got stuffed. I believe I recall that as well. So I I don't know exactly, but all I'm saying there's so many different things that can happen in terms of bad beats when you're looking at like teams kicking meaningless field goals or like um, an onside kick return for a touchdown to kill an under, or even just like um, let's say, you're betting college basketball, you got a total and it's a meaningless game and the team just and they're down 16 points and then they just start fouling with like 50 seconds left and it's like wow, I just they just had a 12 point minute because they fouled three, fouled three. Those things are bad beats because you were supposed to win that bet and just like something in the game that was suboptimal happened. That got you. A lot of times with player props, same kind of deal like how is this guy still in the game? And like he came in and he got this. 

16:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, like brutal, yep, but the mahomes kneeling in the super bowl was the one that I'll never forget so exactly he lost like 16 or 17 yards on kneels. For some reason he decided he wasn't going to take one yard kneel. 

16:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was he had to kill time but he went. Oh excessive, oh excessive, he went excessive. But anyways, those little things, I think, yeah, are massive bad beats when we look at a lot of people were complaining they got absolutely slaughtered on that Alabama game. Like how did I not win my Auburn money line? Like they were fourth and 30. Like yes, but they're fourth and 30, but to win the game they were in it right away. 

17:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like they were favored just before that, like when they had first down they were a massive favorite. So, anyways, I I watched that play live. I don't. We don't really talk, uh, just like general football on this show a lot, but I have to for one second here because that qb had as much time as he ever wanted to throw. Why do teams not blitz more on these situations like hail mary situations? 

17:26
yeah just the teams that blitz always get home. Now this is different. It was on like the 30 yard line or whatever. Right, it's not like a 60 yard hail mary, but hail mary's especially. Just fucking send the house on these guys. The guy needs the time to get the ball. 60 yards downfield send extra pressure. I don't understand what. What these teams do? They do there. There was there was a play yesterday. What game was it? Oh, it was the monday night football game. Bears vikings not worked out because the vikings need a million laterals. The bears rushed one on the last play of the game. Now, granted, dobbs couldn't get it to the end zone. But like, send, send some pressure. It's not going to hurt you in a lot of these situations Did you see that the pick six from Miami. 

18:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh yeah, what do you think on that play? What do you think the move is there? Do you throw that? If you're the Jets, I have my opinion I'll share after. Do you? 

18:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
throw that. If you're the Jets, I do think you throw that. You're the underdog. You've got to take your shots at the end zone whenever we're talking about the black friday game dolphins and jets and, uh, javon holland, who returned it for touchdown. 

18:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Javon holland, we're gonna literally hear about that for years to come. For those of you don't know what I'm talking about, javon holland, he's like one of the very few canadian players in the nfl right now. We had like him, chase claypool, oh you know what? 

18:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
chuba hubbard, episode number 30. And we didn't even say Chuba Hubbard. 

18:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Chuba. 

18:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Canadian Canadian legend. Canadian legend One of the few, he's a Canadian legend. 

18:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So there's this TV commercial. If you're from, if you watch Toronto sports, you've seen this for sure. But it's like they do highlights of Canadian NFL players, mainly like Chuba Hubbard, him, neville Gallimore, that guy and they just like literally there's this one player with like Jovan Holland and you look at the highlight and it's just an absolute shitty pass breakup. That's not impressive in the slightest, but it made a TV commercial that airs every single football game and I don't even know what the commercial's for. It sucks so much. 

19:26 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's an NFL, an nfl canada. Okay, there you go. 

19:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Whatever you guys, you know nfl canada, but now that they have that highlight of him, that's actually a good highlight. Well, we're gonna see that for years to come, forever. That's never gonna be lived down. Yeah, for canadian uh football sports anyways, I agree with you no way the jets should be kneeling that out. You're a dog in the game. Even if it's more likely for them, it's not more likely for them to return it to the house. It's more likely for you to get a touchdown. 

19:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Or a pass interference or something. A hundred percent they cannot score. The Jets cannot move the ball. This is actually their best chance to get a ball into the end zone and have almost no repercussion for doing so even if it is more likely slightly for them to get a pick six versus you get a touchdown. 

20:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like you need that variance. You're a 10 point dog, you're down, you need something. So either way, like good, good move to throw that there um, on on, like the rent. 

20:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So the bad beat conversation. Whatever you, we can argue some of these aren't bad beats. Maybe we'll replace some in the bad beat corner. They're just very memorable for me as plays that that hurt and or for johnny in, in one particular instance, the music city miracles behind there as well. And actually that's not a bet that I made, I just have. I I hate bills, the hip, the bills, so I wanted to make sure that that was behind me at at some point or another. Um, you know, when somebody pointed this out to me, which was just like really funny to me this week, but you know when we say like lost by the hook, how come one by the hook never became a thing. Do you ever hear? 

20:55 - Zack Phillips (Other)
have you ever heard somebody say yeah, you guys, I've heard you guys make that joke. We've said, we've said that, yeah, you guys have made this joke before. 

21:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, yes, I'm gonna hold you accountable what I say. One by the hook, one by said that yeah, you guys have made this joke before. No, yes, I'm gonna hold you accountable what I say. One by the hook, one by the hook. 

21:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, you guys have made the joke about like why don't we talk about? 

21:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
one. No, this I've done this before. 

21:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, I know I'm losing my mind and, like my memory is terrible, I admittedly I need to do something to to recover some brain cells occasionally I'll listen to a podcast like a consistent podcast, and then the host will talk about the same thing for the fourth time and like holy shit, I already know this story, so it's just, ultimately, we probably do that as well we don't, we don't keep records of this stuff. 

21:34 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm telling you no one has watched, and no one has watched this show or listen to this show more than me yeah, you have to listen to it. Three times, every time, yeah, we've said it, we've said it, one by the hook, we've said one by the hook before I don't remember it. 

21:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But listen, I'll trust that. Okay, what's with these sports books offering absolutely insane bets that are not going to grade ever in history. Like what, what? What country will aliens invade first? You usa, like china of, like whatever? And it's like usa is a favorite, minus 200. Like who's betting on this, bro? You're literally never getting that money back. It's. If you do get that money back, you have the risk of the aliens attacking the usa. So you are what? What is that? It's like who's gonna win the war? Humans, aliens? And then it's like aliens are minus 200. Like is anyone actually placing bets on this? I got to know. 

22:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's. You're basically giving an interest-free loan to a sports book. If you do that, it's never going to be loan. What do you mean? 

22:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's never settling Like forget about interest-free loan. 

22:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're just giving money. 

22:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
An interest-free loan is like though they had. They had a thing saying like will the earth be declared flat by unanimously by 2025? That one you're. If you bet like, for example, no, then you're just, you're going to win your bet, but it's not going to outperform the interest on the bet, right so, because you have to tie up your money for five years. But these ones, like, where's the grading date? 

23:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, there's not. 

23:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's basically the biggest scam as you can get who's placing these and how much money is being placed on these, like I actually gotta know you know what I will say, because I did work in the offshore space for a while. 

23:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And here I gotta say something as well, before I wait like we gotta do a counter. 

23:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How many times rob says he consulted for offshore books or worked in the office face? We'll put it above his we can put it over. 

23:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is exactly what I wanted to bring up. I have to say this because it's important. When you're working in media or doing a podcast or anything, you have to understand. There's a lot of you out there who watch or listen to every episode and you would have heard me probably 20 times if not reference the fact that I have consulted for sports books in the past but over half of our viewership on a weekly basis is new, non-existing listeners. So there's gonna be people watching this for the first time who will be like well, what the hell is this guy idiot talking about? What credentials does he have to speak about sports books? That's why I have to constantly say it. I know it gets annoying and we can do the counter, but I have to get that out there. I get it, but every single time I do have to explain why I have some sort of subject matter expertise I'm doing that. 

24:20 - Zack Phillips (Other)
By the way, we're getting that. We'll do shows since, quote, I consulted for a sports book. 

24:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Since Rob mentioned he consulted for a sports book. 

24:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If we ever did a Circles Off bingo card, that would definitely be one of the spots Rob mentions. He consulted for sports books before, but when I consulted for sports books, there's huge media teams that are associated with these, that are associated with these and they will just email, spam everyone that it works for a radio station, tv station, whatever emails they can get a hold on of like, hey, check out these odds that we just posted for this week, and you would be floored at how many times they would send out something like will the earth be flat? You get, you know, earth is flat. Be declared as truth by 2020. To some like lifestyle podcasts and whatever, and it gets talked about nonstop. It is like a media hype machine. They literally just sit in a room. The traders are like, oh, what kind of stuff could we send out this week that I like? And they just do it and people eat it up. 

25:23 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, here's what I'd say too. I know, johnny, which book you're likely referencing in terms of who's posting that kind of stuff. I know who they sponsor and I know the people, who, the content that those people make. It has nothing to do with betting, and so what Rob's saying, all those people are doing probably, is just oh, go and like look at this bet that got posted here. They're promoting the brand anyways. They send over a bunch of people to that because they look at the traffic that's there. They see it, and then they dunk money in and then they're betting on it. 

25:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's part of the marketing budget for offshore sports. 

25:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, but hear me out on these. Okay, because? No, but hear me out on these. Okay, because there's one up right now that I see Justin Trudeau's next lover Okay, this is not about politics, I'm not political. Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada, next lover okay. The third favorite on the list is Melania Trump, trump's wife. 

26:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Who's betting this? No, no, here's the thing, johnny. Of all the people in the entire world, of all people, though, johnny, you should know you came from. You came from marketing and sales previously you've talked about. I know people are betting it. I just want to know who is getting it. They could get zero action on this, zero, but as long as people are, we're the idiots talking about this right now, and you know what some people are, oh my god, there's no way. 

26:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Number the fit. The seventh favorite is elvis stoico figure figure skater. That guy choked under in, like every olympics man, poor guy this is hilarious man, but but yeah but yeah because people send it, or they even just place a five dollar bet and send it in a group chat and then like that's it it's. 

27:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's for the purposes of getting people to talk about things, and we are, we are. We have fallen into the trap trudeau. 

27:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Come out as as uh. 

27:13 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Lgbtqia plus in 2023, plus 1200 like we just spent this time talking about it the sports book, johnny, they laid the trap and you fell right into it. 

27:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Man, that one I don't know. They even fell right into it. It's like when they lay that trap and 80% of the public bets one side and, oh, complete tangent. We've gone on tangents this show, but we might as well. 

27:36 - Zack Phillips (Other)
BetPod ratings losing their mind. 

27:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This low-effort late-Nove bet pod ratings losing their mind. This low effort late november content bet pod ratings hasn't been. Must be on vacation. I don't think he's first of all bet pod ratings. They got so much good stuff here in the markets. 

27:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, man, there's some good ones, like there's some fun. Lizzo's court case on sexual harassment case dismissed minus 320 you're, you're dude, you're hooked. 

27:59 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Now you want to bet these. You said you spend, I go. Who's betting this? Who's betting this? No, no, because some of these like two minutes later. 

28:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you, if you look at entertainment, it's okay, the academy awards these, like, at least there's gonna be a show and you could have fun sweating that out, but these ones are, it's hilarious man, it is pretty they are. 

28:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They are pretty good they are. They're clever, the ones that they've come up with. I did bet on a coin toss in space once before. Did I tell you about that? 

28:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
oh my god, no, I didn't but go ahead. And then I gotta tell the coin tossing. 

28:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I couldn't find the actual coin toss in space. I don't even know if it actually existed, but I won the bet I was trying to. It wasn't even. It was bad. Again, people, I know what I'm doing. I know betting minus 102, minus 105 on a coin toss is not wait for my story. 

28:45
Okay, go ahead, but I know that's not the optimal thing to do. Sometimes I'm looking for action, but I wanted to watch the coin toss. I only bet it so that I could watch it, and I couldn't find this coin toss from space anywhere. It just graded in my account one day as a win. I don't even know what happened. 

29:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, speaking of betting minus 102 on the coin toss is negative EV. Yes, a buddy of mine sent me this this past week. I think it was talked about in a couple of groups and stuff there was apparently. I haven't verified this myself, but there was a couple of cricket matches overseas where in India, where the home team in India was to win the coin toss, they were straight up to win the coin toss like minus 115, plus 07 on the other side, for them to lose the coin toss with 5K liquidity just because, baked in that it's just fixed and they're winning the coin toss with like 5k liquidity just because baked in that it that it's just fixed and they're winning the coin toss, fair odds was like you could actually get plus 07 and then they ended up winning the coin toss because it was actually just high potential to be fixed so they had to price it in with real liquidity. So, yeah, that's a good one. That was, that was, uh, that was in the chats a couple, a couple over the last couple of weeks. 

30:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually didn't know that. I didn't know that the fix is being priced into the actual market at this point in India Premier League. 

30:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is what I heard. I don't know for sure. 

30:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Mumbai was my team Big fan. My friend Tuva was from there and I used to bet his local team. I lost a lot of money on them. 

30:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I got a couple questions for you on nfl um that I wanted to ask here because I know you're been in the nfl. First off, how you doing this year, uh, we here. 

30:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll pull it up now. 

30:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're very slightly profitable, that's good, that's good yeah, it's fine, we had a, we had like a one miserable week, and if not for that, be up big the mac jones week the mac jones I don, I can't guys, I cannot relive that moment. 

30:43 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, I'm just saying, because you talked about it on the show. 

30:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The Patriots. I bet the Patriots this past week as well, the 35-yard field goal that missed. Jeez, that's a tough one. Not a bad beat, though it's not a guarantee that it would have won so sick I can't think of that team anymore. But uh, I don't know. We're like 1.4 percent roi on nfl and without that week is significantly higher than that I uh apologize that. 

31:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sorry, I apologize that that happened to you, especially that field goal that was rough man, but you kind of had the feeling they were gonna miss it. You know what like like those two teams going there was at one point probably favored for no touchdown in the game. 

31:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
These guys were playing for a fucking field goal against the New York Giants. They deserve what they got. They were playing for a 35-yard field goal. They were scared to throw on that final drive. You deserve what you get in the NFL. It does feel the NFL has just this way, though, of beating you down in ways that other sports, in my opinion, do not like. You can lose games that are painful in the NHL. You've been on a game you lose in a shootout come from like these happen in other sports, but I don't know why the NFL ones just feel more. It feels like the world is against you when you lose some of these games, some of the refereeing, the officiating. This I had in the same game Houston Texans money line and the over of 48. What happened in that one? It's 24, 21 and now, granted, it's a 59 yard field goal attempt but it hits the crossbar okay, so you're saying, if he hits that I win both bets? 

32:22
Sorry, both bets stay alive. 

32:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Because it goes to OT. 

32:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Correct. You don't automatically win the Houston. There could be no scoring in OT, so I don't necessarily win the over either. But you just lose two bets on that one play where in your head it's a hard field goal to hit. 

32:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know that kick. He's not even that good though he's not. 

32:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's a backup, but it was right down the middle and it doinked right in the like doinked down, needed another yard, but not even because if you think of the way that it bounced up in the air, it's not like it bounced all the way back, it was just a little bit more. It doinks and goes the other way. Yeah, but anyways, that's the nfl, it just it's for some reason. It's just pure. You're conditioned to expect pain. I bet I got the bears on plus three and a half for monday night football against the vikings and it's like whole game bears are covering it goes 10-9 vikings and I'm like holy shit here we go again. 

33:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Now they, if they, if they go for it on fourth down here, turn over vikes kick a field goal and they turned it over. 

33:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Just lucky enough, it happened outside a field goal range. 

33:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know because he fumbled it forward. But my question for you on NFL was this is listen, we're not trying to be recreational here, it's a real question for Rob. Okay, these dogs in the NFL, okay, is there actually any value to be had, even like arbable prices? Because, listen, there was one win that sticks out, which is the cardinals beating the cowboys earlier in the year as a big dog. Other than that, with these games and I'm not talking about like seven point dogs here, where it's like okay, yeah, the green bay upset detroit, like that's, they can upset detroit. Seven point dogs, not much right. But I'm talking about games where it's the giants over the cowboys from a couple weeks back yep, giants, you, you're picking up a price where pinnacle might be minus 1700 and you can get plus 1700. Like, does that even have a shot of winning? Like it's crazy so it seems. 

34:14
It seems to me like maybe, maybe taking the favorites might be value at this point in the season. So in that, game in particular. 

34:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I had value on the cowboys, both spread and money line. I didn't bet. I didn't bet the money line in that game, which was high. But you also have to remember that part of what's got to be priced into those games is the possibility of a quarterback injury, because you can bet the giants and like what's the likelihood dak prescott's going to get injured in a game, that he leaves the entire game? I don't know, it probably happens 1 in 50 times, maybe less it could happen. 

34:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's probably less than that, like 1 in 25. But, even without Dak, there's still favorites in the game, For sure with. 

34:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Cooper Rush, but they could easily. There's a realm of possibilities where they lose that game. 

34:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
One offensive touchdown yeah, they're still favored in the game. Yeah, like the the job and again who knows, but it depends on the circumstance, like the gap is just widening right now. 

35:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is like it. But then you get like a game where um the raiders and dolphins a couple weeks ago like, okay, we can get into this conversation. 

35:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
As much they still. They were still not even really close to winning. 

35:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They weren't, they were. They were lost by a touchdown, though yardage totals favored miami heavily, or whatever. But you ask yourself in that game, okay, if tua took a big sack in that game or whatever, and he leaves, raiders are extremely live extremely. 

35:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's like if everything possibly happens and then you're you're only getting like plus 700 on that sure, and and that that game was. That game was 1100. That was a 14 point faith right and and like. 

35:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Let's be real, that was probably like super inflated, at least relative to where I guess those teams had been priced previously. Like would you be? 

35:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
betting dogs like I want to pull up. I want to pull up in the board. 

35:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do, I do bet, good bet dogs um, do you actually think there could? 

36:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
there's value on dog money lines right now in the nfl. Some people do. Some people have been betting those in like all season and be like, yeah, the value is currently is betting the dogs, like the bigger dogs, in the range of like plus 700 and above. Uh, again, you know what this week's, this week, isn't? There is no spread this entire upcoming week above commanders dolphins, is it no? But it's, it's like, it's like. 

36:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Thursday night football. Would you bet to consider betting the Seahawks plus three 50 yet down, so I don't even consider that to be that like three, 50. It's within the realm of possibility. 

36:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh my God, you know how often a plus three 50 wins like plus three 50 is nothing. Seattle could easily be Dallas they're not favored but there's a 20, there's at least a 20% chance that Seattle's beating Dallas, which is roughly what the odds are there. It's fair. I'm talking more like plus 1000, like plus 700 and above, which has happened multiple times over the last couple of weeks. But yeah, looking at this week's board, there's nothing. 

36:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, like plus 1000 is 9.1% implied, right? So at the end of the day, you know, when you're betting a team at plus 1,000, the likelihood that they're gonna win is small. And like, let's say, I have a 10%. It's let's say, instead of making it 9.1% implied, my true probability is 10%. Am I gonna bet that team? No, like I'm not. I need a substantial. Like think about how Kellylly kelly criterion works right and how you would bet. Typically speaking, if you have like a five percent edge on a big favorite versus a big underdog, you're gonna put way more on that big favorite. So for me, there gets to a point where it's like, no, this isn't even worth a bet for me, it's not worth my time. But there are some instances where I'll bet a 14 point underdog money line. Um, I did it. Yeah, I there was. There was, like three weeks ago, two or three. 

37:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've yet to cash one this season. Okay, it's been very frustrating so I I get. 

37:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I get that. But like I do expect that if you're making the proper bet over the long run you'll get some of them. So I've been betting straight straight dogs losing everything, man. Okay. So the week that San Fran how? 

38:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
many Arizonas Jets Giants have, I bet this year I don't even want to talk about it. 

38:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The week that San Fran played Tampa Bay where they were a 13.5 point favorite. I didn't bet. That's the week where there was a lot of big underdogs and I bet a few of them on the money line and I want to go back and take a look at what that was. Um, that was the week carolina played dallas, right, I think, potentially. Yeah, they got smoked. What else was in that week? Oh, I bet the giants money line that week against washington. Now, granted, it wasn't I was. I bet them in like the plus 350 range, plus 340 or something like that. It closed like 300, but that, like it happens, the giants won a game on the road at Washington, not not 14 point dog, but like eight and a half, nine, seven, seven point dog. Yeah, whatever, closing like between seven and 10 is basically all week long. Yeah, didn't have that. 

38:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I get it Unfortunately. Listen man, that I get unfortunate. Listen man. No, I'm not trying. I'm not trying to complain here. I'm just saying, like, what is going on with this? Like there it seems like there's value every week on those, especially with when you look at pricing but there's not hidden. This year it's. 

39:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's tough to say because we don't see this in other sports. Okay, like, like, look at that, look at san fran, tampa bay. Okay that that was sunday, november 19th. I'm just using an example where one team's a 13 and a half point favorite pinnacle line on that ends up being plus five 77 on Tampa Bay. You don't see plus five 77 in the NHL, you don't see it in the MLB and NBA you do you do, but NBA is the same thing Like big underdogs. It's, it's, it's. 

39:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It feels like they win more in the NBA than in the NFL Early season. I would say. 

39:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Late season, it feels like they're dead for some reason or another. That's my personal. 

39:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We got to figure this out. There's edges to be had here. Honestly, there's edges to be had because every year that goes by, the gap within the sport either tightens or widens, depending on the sport and depending on the trends that are macro. And in today's nfl it seems like when a team's like blowing up and then their coach is going to get fired and team and players don't even be traded, like they're going to lose that game, it just it seems like it, and then you go and then it happens. And I'm not talking about teams that are still fighting like. 

40:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not talking about the Browns, like the Browns are playing right now I'm talking about like You're just talking about the dredges of the league that are like first overall pick material. 

40:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like, what were the Panthers doing before? Like last couple weeks, like they're going to lose those games, the Panthers. 

40:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know. We'll see now new coaching, new See, if that changes anything. So that's what. 

40:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm saying Now it might change some stuff, but the gap is there. Like the Panthers, they're going to come in the last top three, bottom three. Sorry, when you get a top three pick, it's not going to be theirs. Yeah, shuffle it around for next year. 

40:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know I'd have to do more work into it. But to answer your question, if I have what I feel is a like a decent sized edge on a big underdog, I'll play the money line. I will. I think they're. They're well within reason and, yeah, sometimes they're going to lose painfully. That's what. That's what shit teams do A lot of cases. I bet Carolina on the money line one game this year against Miami. They started the game 14, nothing. I was laughing it up in the early going. They lost like 42-14 or 42-21. 

41:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know actually that game. I remember betting like a fun live bet, like for a low amount of money, when they went down 14-0. Yeah, and I was like there's absolutely no way Carolina's winning this game. 

41:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually think the Dolphins were still favored. 

41:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, they were still like 6.5, minus 6.5. I, I bet I think before, maybe before the second touchdown, when they were driving, yeah, but uh, and they still covered it. 

41:44
It happens but, I bet a lot of ufc enjoy it. Um, I would say you know I've done a bunch of analysis on in the ufc, like the dog and favorite hit rates are pretty even, pretty even split. So you're you're hitting at roughly in that range, yeah, and there are sometimes our value on dogs that are plus 600, plus 500, plus 400 in UFC, especially in the lesser known ones, like it happens, like anything can happen, Well, okay, when we had Shipper on right, yeah, he talked about this a little bit as well and I agree with him. 

42:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He was saying like a lot of times people assume that the VIG is balanced on both sides. It's like, oh, you take what the probability of the event is and you add some VIG to the favorite and some VIG to the underdog. But in a lot of these cases I actually think all the VIG is added to the underdog because nobody wants to go and bet like a minus 1200 favorite in some spots, subjectively that's what I feel, and in you know, cat out of the bag here I don't like I subjectively that's what I feel like I didn't. You know, cat, cat out of the bag here what. I don't think this is a super big edge or anything like that. But I've been hitting some big favorites late in games in NFL that have like short field goal attempt to win the game. I did this with the with the Monday night football game with the bears against the vikings. I laid minus 8 50 on that field goal attempt technically, that wasn't the end of the game. 

43:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They had a kickoff return. 

43:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But yes, right, yeah, yeah, you're right. There's because they left five seconds left for the return or whatever. But minus 8, 50 on that, which is like 90 implied in that. Yeah, it's a good bet. It's a good bet, dude. Come on, man, we've, I've. I know you can get kicks blocked and he missed the field goal earlier in the game, but that's like a. 

43:26
I think that was a 30 yarder on the nose 30 on the nose, like that's upwards 95%, you're paying 90% and like that's conservative, I think as well it's probably 97, 98% in that spot. I've been doing that a lot this year and of course you're going to lose some big bets. I laid the vig, I laid the juice on the Super Bowl last year of no field goal attempt to hit the crossbar and miss Field goal attempt. What was? 

43:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it Miss the cross. It was any missed field goal to hit the crossbar. 

43:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Hit the upgrade, like I mean, that was an absurdly good bet and it lost, so they're going to lose. But I do often feel like some of these are priced where I would imagine all of the bets coming in are on the underdogs or just people convincing themselves that this has a chance to win. Oh yeah, I'll take a shot Plus 1,000. It's got a chance. It's like, yeah, I guess it has a chance to win. Oh yeah, I'll take a shot plus 1,000. It's got a chance. It's like, yeah, I guess it has a chance, but it's nowhere near the Not really, not really. So that's kind of been the thing for me lately. But it's a good, it's interesting conversation. I bet more spreads and totals than pure money lines in the NFL, but I will bet and I imagine, or whatever, you're gonna find some pretty off-market underdog prices, I wouldn't say off-market prices. 

44:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's certain books where if you want to bet a dog like good luck, just don't. You are never gonna find it on that book. But then there's also certain books where it's going to be fairly priced throughout and you'll be able to find something. So, yeah, just preaches the. That just shows the importance of having multiple outs. Like you, you have to. You're saving so much money and you basically can't can't even win without that um, do you have another football related item? 

45:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do have one thing that I want to speak to I was gonna. 

45:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Another thing I was gonna ask you is um, the nfl. So, for example, let's say you win the the first half in the NFL, yep, okay, going into the second half as a dog, going a second half down I wouldn't even say as an underdog, so just down. Do you think that there's an edge potentially had at the halftime? They're taking teams that basically historically have just been better clutch performers and I don't mean clutch as in, I guess I do mean clutch. The reason I ask it is there was a lot of talk about Jalen Hurts coming back and beating the Bills. They were down at the half and then the stats came out after and Hurts, the Eagles have actually won. 

45:56
I think it was X amount of games in a row when trailing at the half and the rest of the NFL has won like 10% and the Eagles are hitting like X percent. That was significantly high, maybe like one six in a row, something like that. So obviously you have to factor in the price, the numbers, what the odds are like, what you're getting the Eagles at, what the score, how much are they down, everything like that. But there's got to be some validity to taking certain teams to come back that can come back and certain teams that probably won't. 

46:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So this is widely and, like, hotly debated. I would say. Um, kind of reminds me of like when people used to debate batter versus pitcher and in baseball, and people were like, oh no, it's small sample, throw it out the window and some people be like, no, there's obviously something to there, you see the pitch better out of a certain pitcher's hands, or whatever. I think that there's something to it personally. Um, it's, it's a combination. Some coaching staffs are generally better at making halftime adjustments than others, and I think it's consistently proven and repeatable. I'm not, I don't want to give away names or whatever, but if you were to just do a study of that right and how teams perform at certain times of the game, you will see consistent trends, with certain coaches over like the majority of their career, and that tells me like, okay, maybe they're very good at scripted plays, and then they're terrible and non-scripted situations, which happens with a lot of coaches. Uh, some others are the are opposite. They can't script the plays to save their life. But then you take them out of that situation and everything improves. So I do think that there is such thing as second half teams or teams that play better when, like you, you watch games, right, and we all pick up on stuff when we watch games. 

47:36
Sometimes you're watching a game and you see a team that's down like 13 points and you're like these guys think that they're down three. The way that they're moving the ball, like they're not going to, they don't have enough time. What are they doing? They're huddling up there, and that just consistently happens with some quarterbacks and some coaching staffs. So I do think that there there is something. There the Eagles will play fast when they're trailing. They understand that they have to like don't? 

48:01
There's going to be teams that they'll be down 21 points and they score a touchdown. And guess what they're going to do? They're going to go for two smart decision, because the likelihood that the other team is not going to score again in the game is very low. So you just want to get accumulate as many points as possible. So I see I see stuff like that and I'm like, okay, this coaching staff understands they're trailing, they need to get as many points as possible. So I see I see stuff like that and I'm like, okay, this coaching staff understands they're trailing, they need to get as many points in short timeframe as possible and they do things to do that. So the long answer there is is yes, like it. I think that there's something to that. 

48:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So there was something that I wanted to uh, that I was looking at, that I haven't necessarily, you know, been doing, but wanted but wanted potentially anyone who's a listener that wanted to dig into some info on this to go run with it. 

48:45
Message us on the show maybe we can work something out. But similar mindset to that on which teams are good in certain scenarios If you go into NHL overtime, it's very, very, very likely that it I mean assuming there's no power play on each side or anything like that going into the OT that the teams are roughly priced 50-50 to win the OT. You might have a shade like minus 20, minus 30, but it won't go higher than that and that's just for a five-minute overtime and a shootout. This is seemingly not correctly priced because there's certain teams that have to be better in overtime just based on the players that they have and then the goaltending that they have, and then there's also certain goalies and players that are just way better in shootouts than the rest. They're all small sample size stuff. It doesn't really make sense to just like back test and be like, okay, this is the best shootout player because this is his attempts, but there are teams that are better in shootout than other teams. There are certainly goalies. 

49:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's goalies that are far worse in shootouts than other goalies, correct? Um? Who was? Who was it for the devils years ago? Was it blackwood or someone? I can't remember who it was? They they were just not gonna. They make saves and shoot out. They're just horrible on breakaways. So there's that stuff. But you know, like um dinky rest in peace to him but he always used to tweet like his overtime and shootout record when betting on hockey and for years it was deplorable, right. 

50:15
And I kept telling him I'm like there's got to be something that you're not capturing when you're betting the game in the first place, because maybe there's like an added percentage you have to add for this team in case the game goes to overtime or goes to shootout. And at that time, when he first started doing it, I was having the complete opposite results of him. He was hitting 35, 40% of his games that went to overtime and shootout, but his average price on those games was like plus 100, should be coin flips and I was having the opposite effect. I was winning all these overtime and shootout games. Then I got into the opposite as years went on, which you're not used to. You're like fuck, I went from being plus 20 units on overtime games in a year to now being minus. 

51:02
What's happened? I got to tell you. I've spent so much time trying to figure out overtime and shootout in the NHL with almost no success. I don't know what it is. I completely agree with your theory of yeah, you put Connor McDavid and Leon Dreisaitl out for an overtime that should be worth a lot more than I don't know. I can't even give you an example, but like two players that are not that good. 

51:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not even about who was favored in the game. At that point, it doesn't even matter. You almost throw that out and it's like a new game in ot, like if this was just an overtime game. Well, and shoot out, yes, knowing that the goalie is in, locked in, and the players are locked in. But how can we do that? Like you realize, basically there's only how many players play in ot seven on average. 

51:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it might even be less than that. Six, yeah, I, I actually that's a good, that's an interesting question, but you know what the most important part of OT is? Possession, possession. 

52:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, but forget about even the overtime. Let's say you go into shootout. Every time you go into shootout the odds are minus 10 aside on live Bullshit. 

52:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That can't be minus 10. 

52:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I agree with you there. 

52:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Somebody figure this out and let's, let's, let's dust these bookies. The edges are not that big, but I've done a lot of work on that and I agree with you there. 

52:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not 50, 50 for every how could it possibly be 50 50 when there's literally some goalies who are just not not good in the shoot. 

52:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's games where you have a backup goalie again going up against one of the best goalies in the league. I don't care who the shooters are on the team. Like that's. 

52:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's that's more than 55, but we also got to just like chart out and be like okay, who's the best goalie right now in the league for power rankings? Uh, it depends, like rangers. 

52:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, like honestly, I think, like thatcher, demko is the best goal save above expected right now he's not the best goalie so name. 

52:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Who's the best goal in the league is he? Is it shister Shesterkin? Is he the best for shootouts, for breakaways? 

53:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't tell you on that it's probably not. 

53:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's probably not. There's probably a goalie who's mid tier, but here's the problem. 

53:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's really good at shootout, but it fluctuates so much year to year. Like you, you don't see consistency for goal. This is the goaltending in hockey. You will you will be a multi-millionaire because that's where, on a year-to-year basis, you see massive drop-offs, like what happened to this guy you, ilia sorokin. He's been great for a couple years and then all of a sudden, like can't save a puck and things happen. 

53:33
It's, it's, it's the randomness of goaltending. It could be mental, it could be a player's dealing with like small injury and you don't know, pekka Rinne went from being like the best goalie in the league to the worst. So he had a hip injury that was kept, you know, shoveled under the rug for a couple seasons. But these are the exact questions you should be asking when you're betting on sports, right? Obviously, if you have a hypothesis and you look at the prices of overtime in your shootout games, you're like, ah, they're lined like it's a coin flip. This obviously can't be right. Okay, now you set out to prove that it's not right and then, once you do that, you just bet it into oblivion, basically. 

54:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, there's gotta be something there. 

54:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Reach out to the show, yeah um, if you find out, you can dm me on the side and we can keep it. Uh, we can keep it on the download so. 

54:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So there's one other thing I know rob wanted to mention here on the comments. Come on guys. 

54:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, so I have to. I have to bring this up because, first and foremost, I actually do appreciate that people DM me on Twitter regularly with feedback about the show. It's great. I read everything that I get DM'd at some point or another. But if you could drop that into the comments below on YouTube, that helps a lot for us going forwards. It shows YouTube that people are engaged For the 20 DMs I'm going to get every week. Oh, great guest, that was a great mindful. We answer the DMs as well. We answer the comments on YouTube. I check them pretty regularly. I respond to them. So please do that. 

55:06
But the second thing is the content that we produce here. So I read an article by Ferris. We had Ferris on Circles Off several episodes ago. It was a show about like betting syndicates basically, and how they work. Highly recommend you check out that episode. Really good. 

55:26
Ferris wrote an article recently which I'm not going to go through the whole thing. I've messaged him on the side with, like, some things I agree with and some things I disagree with. But one of the things that he said he loved about circles off was that we're open to trying new things and we do things that other people don't do in the space and that's actually really important to myself and johnny and sometimes we're going to miss on stuff like that and sometimes we're going to hit. I think last week's episode with aaron with giants badgers went over really well. I got a lot of positive feedback for it. That's something new that nobody's ever tried in this space. But also people message me all the time and they're like that Simon Hunter episode, which has the most views of any episode we did, continues to pick up views on a weekly basis. That's your best episode ever. It's the best episode of content I've ever seen in the betting space. 

56:18
I'm not exaggerating. This is what people say to me Do more of that stuff, do more of it. This is the honest truth. This isn't meant to be a pity party or anything like that, but we do an episode like that. The vast majority of the audience that's going to watch that is actually going to be outside of the sharp sports betting realm. Right, we average like after two or three months. We average 2500 3000 views an episode. We get a bunch of bunch more podcast downloads for that episode. The numbers are way more than that. The audience that's being exposed to that are people that have been exposed to simon hunter and action network before, or people that are just finding us in their recreational sports bettors. Take five minutes of your day and click on that episode on youtube and read through the comments on that episode, because 90 to 95 of those comments are people who think me and johnny are idiots, that we don't understand sports betting. Who are we to go after? Simon Hunter? Who's won somebody money in the NFL this year and whatever? 

57:29
And the point I'm getting to here is that if it was another brand in the space that was out there that put out a piece of content and it made its way to the masses let's use Barstool as an example let's say Barstool put out a piece of content that went viral and a bunch of people started ripping that Barstool content. What would happen in that situation? I'll tell you what would happen. The stoolies, as they're called. They would come to the defense of the creators that they love and trust and listen to regularly and, believe me, that voice would outweigh everyone else. 

58:10
Now, granted, we don't have the Barstool following, we don't have a huge following, but people are not going to learn in this space and maybe you're not incentivized to help other people learn, but if people could show us that same support, it would go a long way for us doing those episodes, because we're not robots. As much as I try to be a robot and like, forget about what other people think, you can get defeated when you're doing content and you do something you're really proud of and you think that you've hit home with it and it's going to send messages, the right messages and then you just get buried for that. So, please, if you can support us as best as possible, it goes a long way. If that's the type of content that you want to see, I'm open to doing it because, believe me, we've talked about the reaction videos. We not only did that one, we did another one. 

59:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're going to need an army, though. 

59:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's. It's tough in this space. It's tough when you're part of the 2% that wins, of the 98% that loses. What percentage of that 98% that loses is aware that they're losers? 

59:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
okay that I don't know, probably not like, not as many as it should be like honestly, simon hunt like 50 like. So there's a lot of people that know they lose betting. They do it for fun, like I'm not gonna say. There's a lot of people that know, but yes there's probably a lot of people who think they win like definitely, here's my whole thing. 

59:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, like the whole simon hunter, I'll drop the simon hunter thing. It seems like I have a personal vendetta. It's just because that was the episode that we did I have to bring it up. But the amount of people who are like I've been tailing simon hunter for the last 10 years and whatever the last five years and he's won me a ton of money for, for whatever I think about, I think simon hunter is a pathological liar. But aside from that, he at least keeps his records and his picks on Action Network. You can visit his Action Network profile and scroll to the bottom. He's 504 and 514. That's over a thousand plays in the NFL since he started tracking for negative 19.5 units. Spare me, like he's won you a bunch of money. What do you just pick and choose what he says, like if you're following the guy's plays, you lost, you lost. If you're following my plays on Sunday morning on Pizza Buffet, you lost. It's not about whether you win or lose. 

01:00:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wow, rob and Simon Hunter one and the same. You have a sound clip for that. 

01:00:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You got. I'm just being real with people. But at the end of the day, if there's no one to call people out on this bullshit and we're just fighting the battle ourselves, it gets tiring. It gets tiring to be in that place. So if you want more of that content, I'm happy to produce it. 

01:00:50
I don't want to make it spiteful, I don't want to attack individuals, but there is a lot of shit out there that people should be put in their place for at the end of the day, if you're going to release garbage, then you can rightfully be called out for that garbage. This isn't an opinion on what's garbage. You tell people about an NBA live betting system. That's obviously an absolute fucking joke. We're going to rip it apart and I don't care. I don't care about that person's feelings because he's selling snake oil to the population. 

01:01:22
But if we're going to be in it on our own and, like I'm going to just get a million comments on a weekly basis calling me an idiot, I don't understand, with no one part of our community giving us any support for it. It just it just gets tiresome. And again, I hate to make it a pity party. I actually do appreciate, like I do, these watch-alongs for every football game on Forward Progress and we have such a tight-knit, great community of people that follows, checks in, no matter what. It's amazing. I honestly live for that type of community and seeing the same people and the same interactions, knowing the inside jokes that are going on, I love that. I live for it. But with Circles Off, we produce the content, we get good messages on the side and then it's just like open firing season on us and on me and I didn't want to make it too serious or like go too overboard here, but I think it's important to be honest with people and share that publicly If that's the content people want to see. 

01:02:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you got my back, I'll produce that content till the end of time, but if it's just us on our lonesome, it makes it a little bit more challenging to do so Zola going in, thank you everyone who does message and say you know we got a ton of messages over the past couple of weeks for some really good episodes that we put out, since the uh, the sharky waters fiasco, as a lot of people are calling it. 

01:02:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, but and listen again like we're trying new stuff. 

01:02:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I hope everyone liked last week. Rob got a ton of messages, I got a ton of messages, aaron got a ton of messages. We're all happy that you guys had the content. But if there's one thing you can do, leave a comment on the youtube. Help scroll the algorithm. Let's see the community show out this week. Normally we're getting, you know, 10 15 comments an episode. Let's get up to 100 for this week. See if we can get 100 comments. And just to make it so you have something to comment, I will say did get a message from a listener that was actually a female. Didn't really know if we had any female listeners or not. We we have. 

01:03:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We have a few other than maybe my mom, we have a few ends up as well as uh occasionally so I didn't really know if we had any female listeners. 

01:03:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What I, uh, what I want everyone to do here is comment and guess how many female listeners we have of the show and if you are a girl and you're supporting the show, thank you so much. If you're interested in betting, comment and let everyone know. And I'm not even 100 convinced that that wasn't a burner, that the girl that reached out, but anyways, was it the profile pic that that was like a little bit, no, no, no no it was a regular check it out, um. 

01:03:48
We love you all. Thank you for tuning in. This has been episode 130 of the circles off podcast in the new studio with my new hat sponsored by pinnacle sports. Part of theting Network. See y'all next week.