00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that day was. It was wild and, uh, I'm glad I lived that day no, I'm not. 

00:06 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I'm not. This was, it, was all our worst memories happening again. This is it. We are scarred as a city, as a town that everyone leaves us. Nobody wants to come it. We, we let our guard down again, rob come on, let's go. 

00:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to circles off, episode number 132, right here here on the Circles Off YouTube channel, part of the Hammer Betting Network and presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. I'm your host, rob Pizzola, today joined by G-Stack George. Thanks for having me. No problem, obviously, g-stack George's source of income still remains unknown. Maybe we'll get to the bottom of that today. Maybe we won't, maybe we won't. Probably we of that today. Maybe we won't, maybe we won't, probably we won't, probably we won't. 

00:47 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Uh, number 32 the edge, edger and james oh yeah, he led the league in rushing his rookie season. That's how good he was. You're trying to, you're trying to show me up? No, I just I'm very familiar with that era of colts. Like they literally traded away Falk and draft Edgerin right away as his replacement, and it worked out. 

01:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, I mean Edgerin James is like a very underrated back. Oh yeah, Like forget about Edgerin James at the end of his career. 

01:17 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
That Edgerin James, but like mid-career in his prime First five years he was easily one of the three or four best running backs in the league at that time there's a mojo maurice jones drew in our first circles off studio we did have a maurice jones drew 32 signed picture up. 

01:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't remember, zach, if it was in my corner or johnny's corner. 

01:40 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I don't remember, neither do I I most remember him for lighting up Sean Merriman on a block, Lights out, remember, I do. I do remember that that was just like this little guy. He can play physical football. 

01:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is going to be very critical, and I'm known to be a critical person, but I've recently taken to watching NFL Network again. Oh, he's awful. 

02:02 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
He is one of the worst. 

02:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But he doesn't answer the questions that are asked to him. No, he's working with um who. Who's the who's he working with there? Rose, chris, rose, what's that guy's name? Do you remember? 

02:15 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
uh, he, yeah, I think it is chris rose he used to do the uh that show with john sally. 

02:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, that's the one, yeah, yeah he's working with him and and it's basically like a highlights show yeah, at the end of the night, and it's not always maurice jones drew. I've seen, uh, gerald mccoy on there as well but whenever maurice jones drew is on, they always throw to him, they ask him like a very basic question and he gives, honestly, some of the most infuriatingly dumb answers. One of them was like here's the wildcard race in the AFC. Who are going to be the three wildcard teams that make it? And they threw to him and he's like all of them, all of them. And Chris Rose is just like no, no, he's like Maurice, they can't all make it. He's like Maurice, like this, they can't all make it he's like no, but all of them have a chance. 

03:07
Like all these teams are right in the mix. 

03:09 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
That's what we're talking about. 

03:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's like yeah, I want you to pick the three teams and they're arguing, basically on air. He's like I'm telling you, it's all of them. All of them could make it. Yeah, making the case, the question that was asked. 

03:26 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
but great player yeah, I owned him in fantasy for many years and he brought home some fantasy titles. He was such a good fantasy player, such a good player. Yeah, you replaced fred taylor, right, he was the he was oh yeah, I liked fred taylor too. That was a player I miss trying to think of other 32s in sports right in front of you, rob. 

03:40 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I told you we're gonna add new things on the desk every day yes, now the thing is this this Shaquille O'Neal bobblehead. 

03:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's wearing 34 with the Lakers. Yeah, yeah, yeah he wore 32 when he was with the Magic. 

03:51 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, and the Heat. I think there's also another Los Angeles Lakers player who wore number 32. Yeah, magic Johnson. 

04:02 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Oh yeah, there's so many 32s boys, yep you know, you know who you didn't put on the list, which I can't figure out, and I I was gonna blame zach. I said, oh it's, it's an age thing. I'm like who's the best running back of all time? Like it's either barry sanders or old people old timers will tell you it's jim brown, right, or who was the most famous running back in history outside of his football career? Oj. 

04:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Simpson yeah, oj Simpson was a 32. So this script that you're looking at right now, I put together this script and I type in the numbers off the top of my head. I don't research them. 

04:40 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Do you remember Dave Winfield Winfield? 

04:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
was noise. What is the? 

04:44 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
World Series. 

04:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's 32. No, I didn't, roy Halladay. I remember wore 32. Doc, but that's like more of my Anything prior to me being 13 years old. I'm not going to remember. 

04:56 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
You were right about. 

04:57 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Because people get mad, by the way, if we don't say some of these. 

05:00 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Julia. 

05:00 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Serving. 

05:01 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Who Dr J. 

05:03 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Sandy Koufax yeah, yeah. 

05:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For 32? Yep, yeah, I'm not going to know that. Sandy Koufax, no. 

05:11 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I've never seen a single inning of Sandy Koufax pitching Carl Malone yeah we can't talk about Carl Malone anymore, though he's off limits now. 

05:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Dave Winfield, Phil. 

05:22 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Walton. 

05:22 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I got Jeff Samet off limits now deep winfield phil walton, I got jeff sammet. Uh, do you remember jeff sammet from the fan? I do. He got very ornery with me when I when I brought up carl malone's past one time on air like he just didn't want to, no he did a topic. 

05:33
He said who would you? Um, if you could take someone's rings away and give them to somebody who never won, who would it be? So I said, like sarcastically, I would. I would make make sure Carl Malone got a ring, because he's such an upstanding gentleman off the field or off the court. And he said something like that's not the time or place. I said, all right, I'm hanging up. I caught Jeff on a bad day. I have since met Jeff many times and we love each other now. 

06:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you called into like a call-in show on Toronto Sports Radio. 

06:06 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I used to drive around in my car and listen to the and Jeff was always like late night 10 o'clock on. Who was the guy with the raspy voice? He's still on the air Scott Farrell. 

06:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Scotty Farrell. Yeah, farrell, yeah, yeah. 

06:21 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I used to call in all these shows. 

06:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Raspy voice would be an understatement. Yeah, yeah, he sounds like he's been smoking four cartons of cigarettes since he was one year old. 

06:30 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
It sounds like he swallowed sandpaper and it never made it out of his throat. 

06:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, yes, I was back in the day when I was working for the score and we were on Sirius. Scotty Farrell was huge at that time in sports talk radio. I think he's kind of like his careers. I mean it tends to happen whatever. Yeah, uh, and not as many people consume um radio anymore. But he was like the guy. I used to listen to him and he was hot. 

06:56 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Take central oh yeah, yeah, you kind of have to be. Yeah, listen, if you're airing uh midnight to 3 am on the east coast and I know he he was coast to coast, but you want to get callers on the East Coast, you've got to get spicy with your takes if you want any reaction at 1 in the morning. 

07:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, we are going to talk a little bit about NFL market timing in this episode today, and specifically a question that gets asked quite a bit when I'm doing live streams or just DMs on Twitter and even in the comment section here on some previous Circles Off videos. But, basically, how do I know when to place my bet, when's a good time for me to go out and bet this and get a little bit into our process over the course of the week? Before we do, though, as an avid Toronto sports caller into radio station? Yes, if you could have called in this week to give your opinion on the entire Shohei Otani situation which, by the way, people who don't know, basically Friday of last week might as well have been a national holiday. Yeah, with the amount of like, there was nobody as soon as there was rumors that Otani might sign in Toronto and there was a plane that was getting tracked in the air, and, just like everything started running rampant at that point, nobody was doing anything. 

08:14 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I have 10 different group chats, Rob, and I kid you not, it was the topic of conversation in every single one of them. 

08:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Same with me. 

08:22 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I have a group chat of soccer guys and all we do is talk EPL. And we were talking about Otani that morning because that's how big like this is Babe Ruth? Right, this is the second coming of him. Babe didn't pitch and hit at the same time, not at the level that Otani is Like. You literally were getting top of the rotation starting pitcher and me to the order hitter. This is the biggest deal, uh, imaginable. So it was a hot topic and I avoided. I avoided it like hell. Monday through thursday that week I was staying away. I didn't believe it. I really thought we were being used because he was going to end up in the dodgers. I did. But friday morning something happened and I got swept up in the hysteria. 

09:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I really did yeah, I would say that I got God, oh yeah. I got, I was, I was right in there, kind of in the same boat as you of like this ain't happening. 

09:13 - Zack Phillips (Other)
This is ridiculous well, I think that it was so easy to get caught up because he's probably the best player in the world, the number one player in the world and Rob. We were talking about the number one players in the world and rob, when you're talking about the number one players in the world, we have to talk about pinnacle sports. 

09:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh yeah, the world's sharpest sports book and available to bettors across canada and in ontario. We often preach line shopping here on circles off. We think that's extremely valuable and important, one of the most critical aspects to sports betting. I would never consider betting without the number one book pinnacle in my back pocket. Low margins, high limits, everything you could want as a better. So check them out and if you do use code hammer when you do sign up, it supports us here on circles off. 

10:00
Helps pay george's guest appearance fee as well, you must be 19 plus, not available in the US. And, as always, please play responsibly. But that day was wild and I'm glad I lived that day. 

10:15 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
No, I'm not. I'm not. It was all our worst memories happening again. This is it. We are scarred as a city, as a town that everyone leaves us. Nobody wants to come it. We, we let our guard down again, rob. 

10:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes I, I, we, I promise we'll move on. I don't want to make this specifically like a toronto sports radio show, but I I, as a torontonian born and raised and you're the same I get so incredibly offended when people are like, oh, it would have been terrible if Otani went to the Blue Jays and Canada got Otani and stuff like that. And I get it. There's a rivalry Canada and the US, and it happens. But what drives me nuts is people. I think a lot of Americans I don't want to paint everyone into the same picture here, but a lot of Americans don't realize how similar Toronto is to every major American city, at least in Northeastern America. But it's like Canada and Toronto specifically are. It might as well be Russia, the way that some people are. 

11:25 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
They think, after this show, rob you and I are going to go home to our igloos. You know, log, log in yourself and log in, check our lines and start firing at on pinnacle betting some nfl. That's what they think we're going to our igloos after this it's it's. 

11:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It really bothers me. I don't know why it works me up so much, but obviously, obviously, I guess any time that you're born and raised in a certain city, you have a certain pride for that city, even though it's like there's lots of things I can complain about, like lots of things I can complain about in Toronto. But ultimately that just drove me crazy. Man, the whole discourse of like this is going to be terrible for baseball. 

12:03 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
You know there's an insecurity with toronto sports fans right, especially when outside of hockey, because hockey's got enough canadian teams. But we have this like inferiority complex. People don't want to come here. One of the most brilliant marketing campaigns of all time was we, the north right. Yep, it captured the game of thrones at the time, but the the concept of the North in Game of Thrones was all these rich people fighting for King's Landing and we're happy living we got our own piece of territory. We are the kings over here. So we, the North, really played into that inferiority complex. We are our own people, we don't care. It gave us like a backbone for once and it was one of the most brilliant marketing strategies ever. 

12:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I thought so as well. Overall just fantastic. But yeah, that just like really chapped my ass this week. Basically that's the best way to put it. 

12:55 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I blame John Marossi because he legitimized it, and then that Dodger reporter, jp Hornstra. Yeah, he wrote an article saying you know sources saying, uh, sources believe he's going to the jays and it's either one of two, one of two things. Right, because as a reporter and I worked in news media you know when you have a concrete source and when you can go with something, when it's verifiable. You don't want to make a mistake on big stuff never, and being first is not more important than being accurate. So, either morosi, uh, and this guy read too much into yeah, what was what was being done, and I think that's unlikely. I don't think anyone's risking a career for that. What I actually think is someone fed them garbage, yeah, yep, they became uh, you ever heard the term useful idiot I've I've heard it, I've been called it before. 

13:44
Yeah, basically, a useful idiot is like someone naive who's like being manipulated to advance a cause. Right, they get the story out that he's really going to Toronto, and then you're probably the Dodgers brass and you get there together. You're like do we really want to risk losing this guy over $50 million that we're already going to defer? And that's why that number $700 million became a shocker for everyone, because we were all expecting $600 million. $650 million was the ceiling. $700 million came out of nowhere. Nobody in their right mind thought he was getting $700 million, not being 29 and not being able to pitch in the first year, and I think that piece of news out there really drove up his price at the end and he ends up going where he wants to go. So I don't know, I don't know if it was his agent or not, but my God, it was a really brilliant masterstroke of getting people worked up with rumors. 

14:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, it was a riveting day for me and um, I pretended to be industry insider in my friend groups as well. 

14:48 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Oh yeah Done deal. 

14:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh yeah, you know, I, I, I know, I know, uh, talk to the Japanese translator for the blue Jays. You know I was, I was all in on it. 

14:57 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
They put a halt on a ticket sales. Uh, for season tickets they're coming out next week triple the price. You know we all were verifying stuff. That wasn't true either. 

15:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course, and that tends to happen in those types of situations. But what doesn't sit well with me and this is the I've had a lot of time to process this now the Morosi stuff. Like I think John Morosi just got fed shitty info Same and he ran with it and and he trusted that source and he thought it was good, but it wasn't good. Yeah, why in God's name did the Toronto Blue Jays organization allow this to just spread like wildfire, like there's a plane in the air? Every single person within the Blue Jays organization knew that Shohei Otani was not on his way to Toronto in a private jet. Could they not have put out a statement or something that just said this is not Shohei Otani's plane, he's at home. We've made him an offer, we're waiting to hear back and just like calmed all of this and put an end, because I wasted a half day yeah, maybe longer than a half day. 

16:12 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
They wouldn't do it directly and the method they would use is when you want to get, when you're an organization the government used to use people in news media and you want to get a statement out there, a message, you message your close friends who are reporters and say and you want to get a statement out there or a message, you message your close friends who are reporters and say you can quote a source within the Jays organization says these are untrue. You want to get your hands around this story before it goes nuts. They failed to do that. They failed to control the narrative in the media. They let it get to hysteria level, like we were tracking freaking planes. The last time that happened was when we were following Kawhi Leonard in a helicopter. What is wrong with this city man? How bad do we want a star player that we lose control? 

16:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It just felt like that there was never a chance. And then there was, and that gives people even more hope. But it's over and done with. I've decided I'm still going to get a Shohei Otani Blue Jays jersey. 

17:04 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
it's over and done with. I've decided I'm still going to get a Shohei Otani Blue Jays jersey. I will still tell my future grandkids that Shohei Otani was the greatest J for one day. For one day. 

17:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Greatest Blue J of all time, otani. 

17:18 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
We had a piece of Babe Ruth. It was so close. 

17:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was so close and like, if you think it's bad for baseball that Otani comes to Canada and plays in Toronto, I'll tell you what's bad for baseball. He's deferring $680 million of his contract until after he's done his contract. The Dodgers are just going to go out and spend like crazy That'll change. 

17:37 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Who was the hockey player that had an obscene 17-year deal? Ilya. 

17:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Kovalchuk. 

17:42 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Ilya Kovalchuk. They're like elia kovalev. They're like okay, we got to put an end to this bs contract. Yeah, you always get one through the door and then the league comes in and says never again, we are putting, closing that loophole I think. 

17:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think manny ramirez is still getting paid by the red socks and the bobby bonilla contract in baseball was also like absurd. He deferred all that afterwards. But yeah, it's just, it's just, it's. You know, when there's a soft cap league and teams can spend, I root for, like the and this is not just Toronto, this would have happened to any small market team. I kind of root for them to be able to compete. 

18:19 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
This is why the Pirates will never have a chance. You know, Even when the Dodgers are cash-strapped, they can pull a maneuver to create money. 

18:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's absurd. It's absurd, almost absurd, as that guy who's challenging everyone on Twitter to 500K handicapping contest. 

18:39 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I love how he picked a number that no one's going to meet. Like let me pick a number that no one can meet, Claim I have it first of all liquid and uh and set the parameters like that. My god, that was such a weird uh story in twitter the the past week yeah, I mean the. 

18:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The reality is he's not gonna get a a challenger because it's not gonna happen. No, it's just the contest is it's. It's just that. I mean, we're the idiots. I'm the idiot for even bringing it up. I'm just giving publicity to this guy. Not going to give out the Twitter handle, now that I've said it already. 

19:14 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I'd be curious how much his follower count and pick selling service increased, because he for sure got something out of this and we all fed into it. I think Spanky came in and said just don't give this idiot attention. 

19:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah and I'm doing the exact opposite of what. 

19:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Spanky said Can you guys explain, though, why people won't do it? I mean, I know why, but like there might be people watching Because it's a waste of time, zach. 

19:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, like how many. I got a million messages. I woke up to a hundred messages of like, oh, here's this challenge, this guy or whatever it's like why I'm going to go say, okay, here, let's do this 500 K contest. We're going to spend a month agreeing on terms because I don't want to do like a contest that's going to last a week and then what's going to happen is just going to keep getting it's. It's just a time suck, like it's an absolute time suck for something that is not ever going to happen. So what's? 

20:07 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
the point yeah, it will never get to the closing line, even if someone had the money to put up and this person was a big enough bettor but also didn't care about being public. Because that's the other problem A lot of guys who bet at that level don't want to have a public persona. So even if you can get past that parameter, then you got to agree to rules with the guy and then he's actually got to put the money in escrow. This. It would never get to that stage. It is a giant waste of time that's a, that's like a huge one. 

20:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There is which which of the two parties like how do you agree on an escrow? Yeah, who's gonna hold the money? Yeah, it's gonna hold a million dollars for you. 

20:45 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Don't give me a million now. That's the last time you will see me. I'm gone. Enjoy your pick. Contest boys. Find me in the Bahamar. 

21:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, at least we would know your source of income at that point. 

21:03 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Oh, good stuff, good stuff. Nfl betting yes, how, how's it going? Last week was very good, actually, like the last three weeks, uh was very good. I can't remember when I got crushed, I think it was four or five weeks ago. Just everything came undone. But I I love, uh weeks like this where there's like a lot of movement and uncertainty in the lines and there's a lot of opportunities. I remember the big elephant in the room is a weather week and I don't know if you've noticed in the last two years everything moves so quickly on weather and I can't like before we could get to Tuesday evening and now by Monday night everyone's blowing up positions and they're dropping three, four points. 

21:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I'm very happy for the people who did last week because it actually created some opportunities on some non-weather games. 

21:57 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I'm staring there on a Tuesday with Clark and I'm like Indy Cincy is 40? What? Yeah? The second. I get a hint that this weather is not bad. It's because Indy's been an auto over team. For the last time I bet an Indy under was against Cleveland and I realized that day I go oh no, this is actually an over team and I've been profiling them wrong Against Tampa. It was good over with all their defensive injuries. You literally got lines with three and four points of closing line value. On Wednesday we were betting them. 

22:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so like, okay, we can start with the weather games. I think that's a good spot to start. So your point is very valid in terms of, like, how quickly people are betting this stuff. I have a guy that comes into the sunday night stream every week and a lot of the wide live watch alongs uh, I, I can't. 

22:50
it goes by like some greek name is joe cost costantino or something like that, I don't know whatever he's in the stream all the time and and the the other nails, as I call them, that are part of the, the streams are, are constantly ripping this guy because he shows up and he's giving weather reports for the upcoming week and whatever, and they're all subject to change and they will change drastically. Like you talk to any meteorologist on the planet and they're going to tell you that there's a very low degree of certainty in being able to project what the weather is going to be with accuracy a full week from now. 

23:24 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
It grows right what the weather is going to be with accuracy. Yeah, a full week from now. It grows right. It's um and I'll use an analogy on how I bet injuries and assumptive injuries, because oftentimes lines are in between where they should be and where they will be yeah, whether we should treat it as such. It's how accurate is the weather on monday, tuesday, wednesday is the first time I really consider the weather has a chance to look like what it does on Wednesday. Monday's too early. 

23:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But okay, what's our main goal in the NFL, Generally speaking, beat the closing line. Yeah Right, that's your best indicator of long-term success, especially in a market as efficient as the NFL. If these numbers are going to move off of weather regardless. 

24:10 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, you could technically Just bet them. Yeah, because you can get both sides Exactly. The problem is my process doesn't really get started until Monday evening. Yeah, it takes me a lot of work to get to where I'm confident for the week. Yeah, and now the positions have all been blown up. I'm not going to get a line that's moved three points already. Yeah, and then pray the weather holds up so it gets another two points of close by, because now I can get railroaded with a really bad position. 

24:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But the alternate side of that is that let's's say you bet a, a weather total sure on. Sometimes it's sunday night when they open up, monday morning, whatever. By midday monday, like some of these last week, yeah, moved like four or five points. They were done, they were, they were the cleveland uh, who did cleveland play? Uh, jacksonville, cleveland, jacksonville moved from like 38 down to low 30s at one point. Yeah, we were at 30 and a half at one point, yeah, and that was like a very substantial move. 

25:11
Now, my whole thing is that you don't have to keep that position. Of course, when you're beating the market by that much, you now have such a valuable play you could hold it for one. You can play back the other side for a very large middle. These don't come about. Now, this isn't like massive market, this is openers early Monday. If you try really hard, I'm sure you can fill like 20K, maybe even more than that, especially on monday, but you know it's. It gives you the opportunity to work later in the week and but you got to be firing monday. 

25:54 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Monday morning is the last, like before everything's gone. I can't get, I can't get ready that fast. And you're like, oh, why not just blind bet on speculative weather and then you can come back on the other side if it turns and get yourself a three or four point middle. I don't like to operate like that. I can't fire Monday morning. I'm not capable of that. 

26:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
OK, fair enough, and it's kind of the same for me as well. Like you know, I do a live show on Sunday nights when Pinnacle's opening up the lines for the upcoming week. I talk through, just like-. 

26:27 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
You need legal outs, though. There's a lot of PPHs that don't filter totals in till Monday afternoon evening. First of all, you won't get a PPH lines until not all of them, obviously, but Monday morning, 10, 11 am, and then totals don't come to like two, three, 4 PM, right. So if that's your method of getting down a lot of money, then you might be limited if you don't have legal shops and outs. 

26:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, this is not going to apply to the biggest bettors are out there Like this is. This is more to the majority of the population. Because, you're right, Like you know, openers at Pinnacle are 3,000 on sides and 2,000 on totals. They're not, they're not. That's substantial for a lot of people. But the problem is, as soon as you hit that for the max, it's moving, and now you don't have the opportunity to bet at other shops. 

27:22 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
So it is basically like a race at this point, you're not going to fill a ton, but if you're a small bettor, Then you got to worry about a service that gives out a pick on Monday morning and market's completely gone and you got no bets in. 

27:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like it's tough. It's tough. I mean I, you know I work with some people who get really rattled by the Monday moves Because we don't bet on Monday. I work with four people in total and there's like a bet size that's required to satisfy everyone in the group and it just doesn't make sense to bet on Monday Unless we're like there's absolutely no chance we're ever going to get this number. It's going to move a lot Like let's just take a smaller play. 

28:06 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, like anything in and around the three that is 100% going to move. Yeah, and sometimes those happen. 

28:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You just know You're like, yeah, everyone's coming in on this, yeah, we will never see this number again later in the week and we don't want to bet anything worse than this. We might as well take this number out. That happens, but it's rare. It doesn't happen a lot. Most of my stuff happens later in the week, especially like Wednesdays. I'm kind of in the same time frame as you. 

28:32 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, here's my point. If you can't get it in Monday morning, what's the harm in on a Wednesday? You know you're getting a Chicago Detroit over 40 and a half last week, or an Indy Cincinnati over 40. And these things are going to close 44, 45. And maybe you didn't middle it, but you've got to be very happy with your position at that. 

28:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Those are two games that I won last week. Those were anticipated weather games that, as the week went on, the forecast became clearer and clearer and clearer. Yeah, and you're like this is just the wrong number, this is bad, this is. This is a number that it's based on on on an x factor that's not going to exist right exactly, but but again, just getting back to it, they, they, this is, these are the largest moves that are going to happen. 

29:23 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, right. 

29:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, information moves will always be Outside of a quarterback injury. 

29:30 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah. 

29:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Weather and quarterback injuries are your two major like massive closing line value opportunities in the NFL. Yeah, so if you went out and you bet the under Detroit-Chicago Sunday night early Monday morning, you bet the under Detroit Chicago Sunday night, early Monday morning you bet the under Indy Cincinnati same thing as that weather starts to clear over the course of the week. You know what everyone did. Everyone bet the under early in the week. They're holding that under and now the overs are sitting there Like it's honestly sat there for like a day and a half. I know some of these numbers. 

30:08 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I know without getting bumped back into place we were literally clark and I were talking about it tuesday afternoon and that indy cincy thing didn't fly till wednesday morning, before you guys went on your show. Yeah, and then you even said you're like listen, I know it's already moved and it's 43 and a half. 

30:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's still a good number, right, it's still a good number I mean it's, I think, for for people out there that have the luxury of being able to bet early and, like fulfill their bet size yeah if you see stuff like that, where you're just looking at the weather report for next week and, like all the east coast games, look like they're gonna have rain and wind, you might as well just pop the under early. 

30:47 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, this happens in a lot of trades too. When you can get ahead of the movement, you're always in the good, whereas a person comes in on the back end. This happens in football too, and I'll give you a scenario last year and a conversation I had with a buddy. Do you remember the Minnesota Buffalo game last year? It was the Josh Allen UCL game. 

31:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do. It was the Justin Jefferson like greatest catch ever. 

31:12 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, but the line opens initially 7-7.5. Yep, and the speculation comes out about Josh's elbow. So if you get in at 7-7.5, 6-6, I know it's early, but yeah, that's a bet right, you make that bet, but then it settles at three and a half, as we now don't know on wednesday, thursday, right, we remember they were hiding him in practice. Yeah, we didn't find out till friday. That day. 

31:36
Uh, on the final injury report, there's a buddy who comes out on wednesday and he and he says you know, let's, you got to bet minnesota plus three and a5,. Josh Allen's not going to play. And I said that might be the case, but it's already at a price right now. That is so much closer to him not playing than him playing. And would you rather bet on like a 70% probability that he doesn't play at a number at 3.5, or would you just rather wait until you find out he's not playing and just grab? You know, if you can't get the 3.5, maybe you get Minnesota 2.5 and it's a fantastic bet. I'd rather bet with 100% certainty at that point. So you either get in really early before the speculation starts, but when you buy in that middle zone you can get in a really bad ugly position and you're making a bad position based on probability that they play in the line that it's currently at yes, so that that's. 

32:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a great conversation to have to in terms of, like the risk reward when placing your bets right. Um, I got sent a clip last week, yeah, from the favorites podcast. Okay, I'll never stop with simon hunter because I think he's a cloud, but I don't actually actively seek this stuff out. 

32:46 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
People send it to me yeah, there's people who hate listen to it. I, I don't listen to anything I don't like, but same with me. 

32:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not. I'm not a hate listener. I'm not like someone who scours someone's twitter feed to see what they're up to and respond to every. That's just like I already don't have time in my life, yeah, to do everything that I want to do. The last thing I'm going to do is listen to a podcast I don't want to listen to. That's going to infuriate me, or scour somebody's Twitter timeline or whatever. I get sent a clip which is Simon Hunter and Chad Millman opening number Vikings minus two and a half at Raiders, and I'm paraphrasing here. Zach maybe can put the clip in in post-production so that we can see it or people can listen to it. Aiden O'Connell is plus two and a half at home against Dobbs. 

33:36 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You know what? I have it written down. 

33:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is my guy right here. 

33:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I 100% agree with that, that's going to be on the board. 

33:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I'm going to grab the 2 and 1 half, just in case the pros hit it. But that's another line. I hope gets the 3, 3 and 1 half. That would be such a nice contest play Just the Raiders at home against a team that can't stop the run like the Vikings. That's a nice spot to back this team. But basically, simon says I'm going to go and I'm going to grab this two and a half early here, just in case the pros come in and hit the Raiders, which to me is arguably one of the dumbest things you can do. Because when you talk about market timing and especially when you have a number at two and a half, right, okay, let's say the pros on the Sunday night hit the Raiders, because all the pros are betting on Sunday nights for the upcoming week. But let's say the pros hit the Raiders, what's the worst case scenario? 

34:34 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, it goes down to one and a half. It's not going to flip sides that same night. There's not enough money down and it's like is the odds of it going to three right Versus moving down towards against you? The reward of it going to three is such a far better bet than if you accident. You only got one instead of two and a half. It's a no brainer to wait and he's sitting there and he's telling people go bet the two and a half before it moves against you. It's like who cares if it went to one. 

35:07
Exactly these are insignificant numbers as compared to a two and a half versus a three. On top of it, rob, there's the justin jefferson news where we expect him to play, and any injury news is going to be positive for the Vikings side. There was literally no upside to hitting Raiders on Monday or Tuesday at two and a half. That's egregious. If you're doing that and if you're betting early and you don't understand asymmetric risk of a line moving to three and how big of a benefit that is to you versus dropping to one, then you've got to really take a serious look at what you're doing in your process. 

35:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean there's there's lots of numbers. I mean, understanding key numbers in the NFL is extremely important when it comes to this, like there's other situations where a team might be a four and a half point favorite and it's the same boat. It's like, well, you know what, I don't need to bet the four and a half now, because if it gets hit five, five and a half okay, I'm going to lose the five. If it gets to four, now I have a push opportunity on the four and that changes things. So understanding that and just basing your timing off of that is a great way to go. Now, it's not all that. It's not as simple as I'm making it out to be, because everybody at least like a lot of the pros sharps, they know this. 

36:26 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Well, I didn't even discuss with you. Uh, indy cincy and detroit, chicago like that's the first time I've heard that we both were on that bet. Okay, right, but a lot of people, we, we, we, we use a lot of the similar data and come to similar conclusions not all the way, yeah. So again, yeah, you're not the only one thinking out there, there's other people with this same line of thinking. 

36:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, every what I just said about, like the four and four and a half, yeah, there's a lot of people out there that are thinking the exact same thing yeah, gonna wait for it. And then there's gonna be someone out there who's like I'm not gonna wait for this because I have so much competition. If it gets to four, yeah, that fuck it. I'm just going to pop the four and a half, yeah, but either way, like there's still so much more upside, of course, in potentially waiting for that and like to me that two and a half I mean the chef's kiss of that situation was the game landed three yeah, and, and the people who waited for the three got rewarded with a push. 

37:21 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
It's. It's like that's that's. The chef's waited for the three got rewarded with a push. It's fantastic. 

37:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's the chef's kiss of the entire situation. Because there's just no like if I see a two and a half on a Sunday night or a Monday, unless I'm confident that this is going to and this is never going to happen, but unless you're supremely confident that this thing's going to flip to like the other wrong team favorite type of situation. Maybe even push out to three on the other side. Yeah, it doesn't make sense. 

37:46 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I'll tell you a scenario where it happened. I'm talking to Eric Eager before the season starts. Do you remember week one? The Lions obviously have been up for months and Chicago was favored by two and a half against Green Bay. I do, they're at home and I'm talking to Igor and I'm like I haven't bet this yet. I make Green Bay a one point favorite. I think a lot of us did. 

38:05
A lot of us were bullish on Green Bay and I said I'm waiting for the three. I'm like do you think it gets here? He goes, absolutely not, he goes. Have you heard a single sharp person make a case against Green Bay this offseason or for Chicago? And I said so, why hasn't it moved? And it dawned on me we're all waiting for the three. That's never going to arrive. That's when it's like, okay, I get it now. We're never going to get this three. But making that split shot decision Sunday and Monday morning is insane. It's different. The line had been sitting there for a month and a half. It's clear it's never getting to three. And I'm like like we're waiting for the. We're waiting for too long for no reason. Now, at this point, right. 

38:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean it's challenging to navigate the waters of the nfl because you know you have to apply logic. You have to know that other people are applying logic as well. It's a competitive market. It's not just like, oh, I'm gonna wait for, you know, trevor lawrence to be ruled out and then bet it. It's like guess what you got to be available at all times of the day because that number is going to come off the board real quick and it's going to reopen at a new price. So it's not. It's not as easy as that in a lot of instances, but you really have to weigh the the upside versus the downside in a lot of these bets. I'm not saying you have to do this in everything. There's going to be times. Patrick Mahomes is out, you just run and bet it. 

39:28 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
There's no brainer fires. Right, there's no brainer fires. Another thing I've found. So I formulate a game plan for the week, right, once I've digested everything I need to, and I can confidently say these are my numbers for the week Now I create. You know what points I'm looking to buy. Where do I think the market's going to go? What buy points do I want to jump in on my favorite games. Now to bet are games where you have to price three different things. So again, we're going to refer to this, the Cleveland-Jacksonville game. It becomes all right. What's the price with a healthy Trevor Lawrence? What's the price with no Trevor Lawrence? And what's the price with a banged-up Trevor Lawrence? So you evaluate the injury. What is the injury? It's high ankle, okay, what does that eliminate from his game? Then the next step is okay, does he have the roster to overcome this? Oh, wow, he's missing two offensive tackles. Oh wow, he's missing christian kirk, who's one of his best separators at receiver and and jamal agnew's on ir2. 

40:30
They got no receivers so all of a sudden it becomes oh, oh, wait a minute. Uh, his mobility is going to be an issue. He's lacking weapons and his o-line shirt, so I'm like his reduced price now is has to be significant. Right, and we and joe burrow forced us to all think like this right, there's the His O-line's hurt, so I'm like his reduced price now has to be significant right. And Joe Burrow forced us to all think like this right, there's the Joe Burrow's healthy price, joe Burrow's reduced price and Joe Burrow's not playing price. 

40:53
And it's so funny. You were the first person to bring it up and it was odd that we all had the same mentality. Right, because Cleveland had gone to three and we missed the 1.5. I missed it, I readily admit it, and I didn't jump in and pile in on Cleveland minus 3, because I go now. There's still not 100% certainty that Lawrence isn't going to play. Obviously, if he was out, the price would go above 3, but at this point the line's gone too far. You can't jump in at the end before we have confirmation. And you said God, I hope Trevor Lawrence, but at this point the line's gone too far. You can't jump in at the end before we have confirmation and you said God, I hope Trevor Lawrence plays, so I can bet Cleveland once the number moves down again. 

41:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And I knew it would. Yes, the announcement came on Saturday and someone's messaging me at night because Schefter reported it that he's going to try to play it's a game-time decision, whatever, but they're going to try to play him. And one of someone messages me on twitter and they're like dude, like the, no one wants to bet, no one wants to bet jacksonville like it's. I'm like don't worry, yeah, we're gonna bet someone is going to bet jacksonville. 

41:53
Trevor lawrence's is going to start. Yeah, they will take money, someone will bet them because there are people and groups specifically out there that honestly just purely bad injury news. Yeah, that I know of someone will bet them 100. 

42:08 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
At that point it became a. Obviously, if trevor lawrence, if we knew he was healthy, yeah, we would grab plus three and and and love our clv, of course, when he's cleared. But we knew we were getting a reduced version of him and we deciphered. The correct bet at that point was let's bet Cleveland after Lawrence is confirmed and then he's diminished. And, it's funny, the game came down to a two-point conversion. Right, it would have been a two-point win or a four-point win for Cleveland, but we got one and one and a half a lot of us the prime number when it dropped down and I'm like that's a job well done because, you know what, there's a lot of people who had to sweat that two-point conversion and we didn't I did not have to sweat, it's a great feeling to be in that situation that's the, that's the game where you're like you know what? 

42:55
I do this right, yeah, I do I, I I am him right. No, and we have those moments because that was a puzzle to solve. That wasn't. Trevor Lawrence is out bang a team, that's easy, right. That's you catching a book, moving slow, you're right place, right time, you're quick to act. There's no skill in it outside of the fact that you're just quick, right, your timing was your skill there. Beating injury information or information period, like NFL draft, that that is a job well done, but there's no real. The skill is in deciphering a complicated puzzle with three different outcomes 100%. 

43:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, honestly, that's one of my personally, that's one of my biggest edges as a sports. Better is just pattern recognition and I've done this a long time now. I haven't done this professionally a long time, but over the course of the year, of at least the last five years, I'm glued to the nfl market, right, yeah, when a line move happens, it's like why did this happen? Yeah, what day did it happen on? Can I find out who bet this? And all this just becomes information that you collect over time and over time and over time. And there's going to be times where, like you, like a play, but you wait. Here's an example your team I'm sorry to bring this up, but I did the media rounds last week. Yeah, I talked about this as well. Tennessee, miami total I like the over, yeah, but I'm not going to bet this early, yeah, because I think there's going to be late money on the under in this game. 

44:34 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
There always seems to be, especially on primetime games. They used to always come down a little. 

44:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's part of it a little bit. But on top of that, one thing that I tend to notice with totals especially and this isn't like a certainty by any stretch of the imagination but whenever you have a look-ahead number on a game that gets massively adjusted to the next game, more often than not the price tends to move back towards the look-ahead number. Look-ahead total in Miami, tennessee, was 44.5, back towards the look ahead number. Look ahead total in Miami, tennessee, was 44 and a half and it reopened 47 for this week, 47 being a key number, came off of that pretty quickly to 46 and a half, kept taking money down to 45. And it's like that's just one example. There's times where this doesn't happen and something like materially changes. Sure, in a week, sure, that's different, but that was an adjustment. So for me it's like, okay, I actually have an edge on over 47 in this game, but you waited it out, I'm gonna wait it out because I'm very confident there's going to be under money in this game so I'll admit that that's not my. 

45:41 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
On higher totals, I find it hard to navigate the direction and I recognize that as a leak in my game. I feel very confident on sides and directions are going to move. Obviously, if you watch any market long enough, for several years, you understand patterns, you understand how money flows in, you understand who market tends to like. There are certain teams that get bet on game day and we've discussed this before. 

46:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Three straight weeks for the Bengals now. 

46:11 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I don't know how high totals will move down. Dallas-philly was sitting at, I think, 52.5, 53. I assumed it wouldn't get to 54. It would come down a little, but I wasn't certain. I didn't bet the over. I would have bet the over. That was a game where I thought both offenses would move the ball. Well, I think both defenses are a tad overrated and I really like how At least you said it to my face, yeah, no, I've said this to you. I also think San Fran's defense is uh overrated. You've heard you, you've heard my, my, my theories on all this stuff. Um, but I wasn't 100 certain of the line move. So when, when I, when I feel like I'm out of place, uh, I usually don't put my money in and and that's and that's something that I've learned over the time. You don't have to make every bet. 

47:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean I bet the over in that game. I was wrong about the way that. I thought that that would move as well. I thought there would be more money on the under. Yeah, on that game. Okay, I thought there was actually a legitimate chance we'd get to 51 for that total, see I didn't know. 

47:26 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
When I was talking to Suma uh and I know you and suma talk about games I I said, uh, I can't see money coming in on the under here. I understand it's a high total, but these two teams profile like as an over game and suma's. I thought back now and I'm like suma didn't, didn't uh agree with me but he didn't like outwardly put it out, so I'm like, okay, sumo was expecting some under money. 

47:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We we know again and this is not like this is just from purely experiential yeah, we know that when there's high totals in the nfl every year they tend to very close to post yeah, take money towards the under, got it. There's one specific group that really likes to bet these high totals under. They think that they have an edge there. They're putting down a lot of money. So for me, it's like, whenever I see these super high totals, it's not a rush to go out and bet them. I might as well just wait, but that money never came in. That was one of the rare instances where I ended up betting a total like 15 minutes before the game started. Yeah, because I'm like, all right, this is the price, I have an edge and I'm I'm just gonna bet it, got it and and I never saw that money. But you know. So there's certainly instances where you're wrong. But ultimately for me, like you're dealing with such fine margins in the nfl, yeah, you want to maximize your chances to win, sure, and paying it. 

48:44
It's not just the nfl. Honestly, everything we just talked about applies to other sports. You can find some comparison in other sports. I think back to last year nba uh, which it was much more rampant because there wasn't the in-play tournament, sure, but older players resting on the second half of a back-to-back yeah, why are you going to go out and bet that team? There was a in the morning, there was a time-to-back. Why are you going to go out and bet that team early in the? 

49:03 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
morning. There was a time that Underdog NBA was the most valuable account on Twitter and now obviously everyone's plugged in and it moves simultaneously. But especially that load management COVID era like that too, and I don't like betting basketball, but man, I was making money. 

49:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, just just beating, pure injury shit of course, but like you know, I would go on Twitter and I won't like, I'm not gonna name names or anything like that. 

49:33 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Don't give out, uh, any edges that you might still have no, it's not. 

49:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not even an edge. It was just last year people constantly complaining like, oh, this guy's resting, like there goes my bet. It's like, well, you, you click the button, yeah you, now there's some things outside of your control. Yeah, sometimes you click a button, you know there's no one on the NFL Friday injury report the late ad is always like a the Saturday Schefter tweet. This guy's been added to the injury report with the flu or whatever, and it's like well, well, you know what? What am I going to do? 

50:05 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Well, look at Seattle right, there's people who bet plus 12. I think it started at like 13, got down to 12 and a half 12. And then it got all the way down to 10 and a half. So people were betting and then we find out Gino pulls his groin Thursday night and all of a sudden the line closes 14 and you're like, oh, I made a bad bet. 

50:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course, and that type of stuff's going to happen. But like the stuff with what was going on in the NBA last year, where you had veterans very frequently resting on the second half of back to backs, almost to the point where it became predictable I'm sorry, but it's on you if you place the bet on the team where the veteran is more likely to rest, yeah, like you control that. You control the bet timing. It's no different than in the NHL, where you have back-to-back situations and sometimes it's going to be the backup goalie that plays the second of the back-to-back. There's patterns that you can look at how these teams play. You're in control of when you place the bet, so you can't just always complain about when things work against you. A lot of this is recognizable and predictable. 

51:14 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
You've got to learn to team's tendencies. Pete Carroll is one of the most honest at the podium when he says something he doesn't, for whatever reason. He doesn't believe in gamesmanship. Cleve and I were talking Monday morning before the Dolphins-Titans game and he asked me what's going on with Teron Armstead and Javon Holland and I said we have been the most cautious team at benching questionable guys. 

51:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You say we as the Miami Dolphins. You consider yourself part of the organization. Of course I am. 

51:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Also, you notice the helmet in front of George today. 

51:49 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Wow, did you rearrange that? 

51:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, I didn't. I was going to say that that was freaking devious. 

51:58 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I said we are prioritizing health for playoffs. Mike McDaniel has come out and said that before. I'm not going to risk a guy's long-term health for a short-term game. We are one of the most cautious teams. When you get like questionables, dolphins have a higher probability of benching that player, whereas questionable has become a really you're playing type tag, yeah right, and we're a team that it's not. That's not the case. We're actually. We actually lean to more towards sitting it. You have to learn the tendencies of of certain teams yeah, um, hopefully that was a lot. 

52:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, there's a lot to unpack there, but hopefully there's some learnings there, especially if if this is kind of a foreign subject to you, but uh, it's. It's a crazy market. All sports are crazy markets. You have to learn to navigate them and, honestly, all of this stuff matters in some capacity or another. You might dismiss it and be like, ah, who cares when I place my bet or whatever, but your goal, generally speaking, across sports, beat the closing line. There's many different ways that you could possibly do that, but even a half point here or there, like there there, honestly there is no. This is going to sound like really weird messed up. There's no greater feeling for me. 

53:07 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
When I win and the late money loses. I love it Okay. 

53:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Not that exactly. 

53:14 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
When I get the line that went. So I actually this is devious. I wanted Jacksonville to complete that two-point conversion. 

53:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So did I. I was there and I was like I need to, and also I wanted itville to complete that two-point conversion. So did I. I was there and I was like I need to, and also I wanted it because of Fez in the Circa Millions and I want Fez to win just to cause a shitstorm. 

53:31 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I love when I win and others don't because they didn't get the optimal line. Like, is that bad? That gives me a thrill. 

53:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wasn't going to go quite that far. Okay, you took it to an extreme wishing ill on other people well, zach, you know what this means. 

53:47 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Right, rob's gonna admit to this six months from now. He's gonna get caught accidentally. He's gonna get caught I, I will. 

53:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say, I do enjoy that like I enjoy when when I I win a bet, yeah, and I could have lost it if I had not bet it at the right time or push. But what really? What really gets me going from six to midnight, george, is when I have the absolute best price in market. Like over the course of the week you make a bet and you're like I could not have done any better with my market entry. That's the kind of stuff that really gets the juices flowing for you. It could lose by a hundred. They could lose 70 to nothing. I got the best price. I will hang my head on that because I honestly believe that that's just like job is done. I've done what I can now. I picked the position I wanted. I got the best possible price. There's nothing more I can do. At the end of the day, okay, it could have been a bad handicap or bad handicap or whatever. 

54:44 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, but that's job well done for me I also get gratification when I get an injury move before national media picks it up. Yep, because I have. I follow enough people and you can check on my twitter, uh, and go through. You know how people have lists If you go on. Right now I have a list for all the AFC East beat writers there's 30 people there and AFC North and AFC South. I have football doctors lists, right. I have a lot of lists on Twitter and I have a lot of screens open during the day. 

55:15
I remember there was a story last year it was Raiders 49ers, two weeks to go, and this wasn't even news. It was a beat reporter who was doing some outside-the-box speculation on Twitter and he said Derek Carr's contract's fully guaranteed. If he gets hurt, they may consider benching him now that they're out of the playoffs Two weeks to go. And I sat there and I said, wait a minute. He inherited Derek Carr, the playoffs Two weeks to go. And I sat there and I said, wait a minute. He inherited Derek Carr. This is a guy, mcdaniel, who has been known to want to get his guy in there. They could improve their draft position if they're gone and they risk him getting hurt and they got to pay him the money. So I bet on that beat writer. I'm like you know what you bring up an interesting point. Got San Fran. I want to say minus six and a half or whatever the line was. I think it ended up closing 10 once Jared Stidham became the guy and Stidham had an amazing game and it lost, it lost, it lost. 

56:20
They won by three, but I felt gratified because anyone can beat uh, anyone can get a shifter tweet or a prominent beat writer and beat a line move. Yeah, when you find a tidbit that nobody else may have interpreted the same way, I love that stuff. 

56:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yes, it's like the zach galifianakis gif, uh, that or that meme that goes around where you're just seeing like all the shapes and you read one tweet and all the Logic starting to come together for you and formulating in your head I like that, george, that gets me very excited. I know this went off the rails with us talking about what gets us turned on here, but yeah, it's it did. Hopefully this was helpful for people out there. Plus Evie, minus Evie, did you come? Did you come prepared this week? 

57:03 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, I want to start with a negative EV Researching with an agenda. People research for two purposes justification or discovery. When you research for justification, you don't actually seek to learn the right answer. You seek to learn why your answer is right. You've not learned nothing, Whether it's film watching. You're digging for selective stats and data. You're looking to bolster an opinion that you already have. More times than not, you're going to end up validating a bad opinion. The real way to research is go in with a blank canvas, have a hypothesis, but go in with a blank canvas and learn what the data teaches you and you might come to the conclusion that what your original opinion is was way off. And people are like oh, this is so obvious. A lot of people do this, Believe me. Oh, I do it, Everyone does right. 

58:05
Everyone picks their opinion and says I'm going to validate it with five reasons why, and then you ignore the stuff that devalidates it. You know what you're doing, right, you know what you're doing. You're researching in bad faith. 

58:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a good one. 

58:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Minus EV, zach Minus EV, zach Minus EV is being a Toronto sports fan. It's just hell. I mean you look at the MLB, the NBA we're the only team up here for either. The American reporters hate us, the American fans hate us, the players apparently hate us. We're getting deceived by agencies and beat reporters. It's tough. And then outside of that, you get the Leafs. What the fuck is there to be happy about there? Like that just sucks. You have the Argos. They had the greatest season in CFL history. Yep, they got upset by the Alouettes. Like TFC gets all these Italian guys to come over here. 

59:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They stink as soon as they come here. They fucking suck right away Like Italian guys to come over here. 

59:03 - Zack Phillips (Other)
They stink as soon as they come here. They fucking suck right away. 

59:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's just it sucks. Should have went, should have got the Greeks. 

59:06 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Should have got the Greeks. There's nothing good about this, so that's that's negative EV for me. 

59:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll give a sports betting negative EV because it hits home with me, with a lot of my friends who who buy picks and purchase picks. If you're going to purchase picks even if they're from someone that's sharp, a winning service or whatever for the love of God, don't chase numbers. If you're in a work meeting and some service releases a college basketball game and the number moves seven points, it's okay to sit it out Like you don't have to come and just bet the same side because now you have FOMO and you're scared that that play is going to win. You have no idea what that play is good to. So, generally speaking, when the market moves that much on any single play and you missed it, just sit it out. You know you haven't quite lost your mojo, like GRP would say, but maybe you just need to take a step back. Calm down. There's going to be more plays from whatever service you subscribe to. Don't chase numbers, yeah. 

01:00:07 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
All right, plus EV. I want to get a bit philosophical, if you don't mind. On this last one. You know that I minored in philosophy, did you? Well, I never really graduated, but I did yeah well, philosophy is the class you take when you just want to get stoned at lunch and come in and get a passing grade with all your brilliant thoughts. 

01:00:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Guilty as charged. 

01:00:32 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Leo McGarry in the West Wing. He said this guy's walking down the street when he falls in a hole. The walls are so steep he can't get out. A doctor passes by and the guy shouts up hey, can you help me out? The doctor writes a prescription and he throws it down in the hole and moves on. Then a priest comes along and the guy shouts out father, I'm down in this hole, can you help me out? The priest writes out a prayer, throws it down in the hole and moves on. Then a friend walks by hey, joe, it's me, can you help me out? And the friend jumps down into the hole with him. The guy says are you stupid? Now we're both down here. And the friend says yeah, but I've been down here before and I know the way out. 

01:01:18
It's the holidays. A lot of people get lonely at this time and if you have friends and you're feeling alone, reach out to them. Don't let that feeling of loneliness consume you this holiday season. You know, a lot of people are stressed and depressed. Reach out to people and if you don't have anyone to reach out, to reach out to me on Twitter and I'll be happy to share some words with you. I want people to remember this, because these times are not easy for everybody and we joke and everything like that. But I think it's an important message right now, because I know there's people out there that are listening to content that probably are feeling lonely this Christmas season, this holiday season, and you shouldn't have to feel that way. Strong words there that probably are feeling lonely this Christmas season, this holiday season, and you shouldn't have to feel that way. 

01:02:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Strong words there. I echo everything that George said. Ever need someone to talk. Dms are open on Twitter. I get back to everyone. Reach out to us. I mean, I've been there before it sucks. It's good to have people that you can reach out to and that can understand what you're going through. I'm glad I don't have to follow that one up. It's on you now. That's just a losing spot to beat minus ev spot. 

01:02:30 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I should have said uh, can I save my plus ev? 

01:02:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
uh, for the end minus ev spot for zach right now uh, yeah, that's tough. 

01:02:38 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Um, no, you, I agree with george, and you can reach out to me as well, but um fuck, this is mine's just right after. 

01:02:45 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
George's no, a little comedy after uh the levity here You're good All right. 

01:02:54 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Um, I kind of have to uh. First and foremost, if you're a single guy, you're a single guy and you're living, like in your apartment, christmas decorations, it goes a long way. Um, really, oh yeah, trust me, it goes a long way. 

01:03:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For the I for the women ladies. Okay, I thought I thought you were okay. You got people understood you got people over whatever that's the best. 

01:03:17 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I'm taking that one. 

01:03:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I want to apply that you got christmas tree, christmas lights. We've got those, like my roommate uh, his mom sent us. Like the advent calendars, the chocolate advent calendars, boys, trust me, I'm telling you, for some reason they're like holidays. You guys got in the spirit. 

01:03:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You guys got this up. It's a winning move. 

01:03:37 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Do you have real presents under the tree or just like fake boxes? Fake boxes. 

01:03:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, presents under the tree, or just like fake boxes. Fake box, okay. 

01:03:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, that comes out of the that comes out of the washroom wearing only a stocking anyways. Uh, the other one is and this one is more because people I've seen them talking about it in the forward progress watch alongs which, by the way, encourage anybody if you're not watching those, watch them. It's highly entertaining. It's a good thing to put on while you're watching the game. But I've seen people talking about like working out and stuff. People who watch for progress workout while they're listening and things like that. Yeah, uh, I've talked about it on here before. I've tried to like up my workouts and like my workout routine and stuff. 

01:04:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's one thing it's a humble brag, by the way. 

01:04:16 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You mixed in a humble brag in there, but continue well, I'm just saying like yeah, I'm zach, I'm young and in shape yeah I like to mix in some workouts every year. 

01:04:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And there you know in my routine. 

01:04:28 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm just saying, uh, one thing to do if you're doing this, if you're someone who's like trying to make your workout a little bit more intense you're taking like pre-workout, pre-workout 20 minutes before it's supposed to hit like 30 minutes go to the gym, start stretching and then, by the end of like your 10 minute stretch or whatever, you're locked in and ready to go you get like a little. 

01:04:51
It gives you like a little tingle the pre-workout supposed to and you kind of get like tunnel vision a little bit. It's the way. It's perfect way to go. Noise cancellation in the headphones that's how I've been starting my workouts. I've been having the best workouts I probably have ever had. I know it's maybe not applicable to everybody, but I've seen people on the Forward Progress stuff talking about them doing workouts and stuff. It's a good way to kind of elevate it. So yeah, that's kind of one that I was thinking. 

01:05:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Certainly not applicable to me and George, but Tun is. 

01:05:20 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
That is that, when you take too much pre-workout. 

01:05:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe. Yes, it pretty much is Okay. I'll end with a plus EV here, listening to podcasts on quicker speed the people. If you have not discovered yet that you can listen to a podcast quicker than one time speed it's. You can't go nuts here, like there's going to be a point where you reach where you're like what's the? What's the ideal speed for me? I, it depends on the pod. Okay. So some pods I like to do a 1.25 or 1.3 times. Okay, if I'm listening to be better, betters, for example, I could do two times because the host speaks so goddamn slowly that it just sounds like a normal speech afterwards. 

01:06:05
That's great. So it depends on the pod, but it opens up so much time for you and in fact I've now started watching Netflix shows on like 1.25 times speed. 

01:06:15 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
No, no, you don't, I do. 

01:06:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's crazy. 

01:06:17 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's not. No, that's crazy. That is crazy, that's crazy. 

01:06:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll tell you where it really goes off the rails is if there's like a montage in the show, okay, because there's like music. It's playing fast. 

01:06:28 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah. 

01:06:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But aside from that, it works. Time is valuable and there are things now you do not need to watch. 

01:06:38 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
What if they're a fast talker like Ben Shapiro? You know, here we go. 

01:06:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's already speaking. You know 1.5. I'll put it back to one time speed. Okay, but start. Start with what's tolerable and you'll figure it out. 

01:06:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Time savings very important. Plus ev move of the week, the netflix one. George, I'm with you, that's insane. 

01:06:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's no way, I'm not doing like stand-up comedies on that type of speed or anything like that, but there's lots of like. Do you need to watch home alone at regular speed? 

01:07:04 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
you don't how much time are you trying to save in life, bro? I know, I know lots of time. 

01:07:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm all about time savings. I'm with you on the podcast 100 yeah yeah, I'm with you on the podcast. 

01:07:15 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Can I ask you? 

01:07:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
guys, one question before we get out of here. Sure we're in the christmas theme here, boys, um, give me your number one christ song. I need to know like what's your number one Christmas? 

01:07:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
song. Well, I mean, what I'm going to say here is is actually like really way out there. It's not. I guess it's not even a song, but there's well, okay, I don't like Christmas music. Okay, I don't like Christmas music, ooh, why not? It's just, I'm not a big fan. There's a metal band out there called August Burns Red that does instrumentals. 

01:07:52 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
That's the guy who donates to all their watch-alongs August Burns, red right August. 

01:07:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Young does Very close. There's a metal band called August Burns Red that does instrumental covers of Christmas songs. They've put out like three albums of Christmas covers and in December I often find myself listening to that, which is much more tolerable to me because you don't have like the cheesy vocals. The vocals are just instrumentals. It's a little bit more uptempo. You got your double bass or whatever, but I don't like, I don't. I mean my favorite christmas song, I guess would be like that, would be like the trans-siberian orchestra, yeah, what's that sarajevo right. 

01:08:37
Oh, yeah, yeah yeah, yeah, like that's, that's, I like I like listening to frank sinatra singing Christmas songs. 

01:08:45 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
It's different. It doesn't feel corny and cheesy. It feels, you know, you feel like a gentleman, you know. 

01:08:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You feeling like a gentleman? 

01:08:52 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
You know, if it's 10 in the morning and you're drinking a whiskey and you're ashamed of yourself, you put Frank Sinatra on and it's whiskey o'clock, baby. 

01:09:01 - Zack Phillips (Other)
All right, fair enough. 

01:09:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're also going with Trans-Siberian Orchestra. 

01:09:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, that one's one of the best ones as well, but one of the ones for me, I think the one that I have to put as number one is the cheesiest. It's the chalk. It's All I Want for Christmas, mariah Carey. 

01:09:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just the easy one we're going to have to end the show. 

01:09:22 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
There's no way. Sorry, Zach. 

01:09:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You've lost microphone privileges for the remainder of December. 

01:09:25 - Zack Phillips (Other)
That is awful, but it's because of, like, it's December 1. That's the one that is. Just it flips on Hold on, hold on. 

01:09:31 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
I just want to get to the bottom of this. When you bring these ladies home and you've got this fake Christmas tree and fake presents, you have Mariah in the background, don't you? Dimly lit. Yeah, he does, yeah, he does. He sings along too. That's his move. We're learning Zach's pro move here. 

01:09:47 - Zack Phillips (Other)
But like I think it's Bing Crosby White Christmas, yeah, that's probably the real like. 

01:09:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's solid. No issues with that. Listen, it's subjective. You're entitled to your opinion. We're allowed to roast your opinion based off of our beliefs as well. This is how the world works. But let it be known, zach big Mariah Carey fan Huge. 

01:10:09 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Mariah Carey fan. 

01:10:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think there's anything wrong with that. No, I don't think there's anything wrong with Mariah Carey either. 

01:10:15 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Zach's one step away from Taylor Swift and joining Seville. Yeah, there you are Him and Diggs will be joining myself and Kirk Evans at Taylor Swift in Toronto at some point or another. 

01:10:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll check it out. I'll check it. I'll see a show. It's supposed to be a good show. I'll go see a good show. I like seeing live music, whatever. Whatever, that's going to be it. Circles off, episode number 132. If you haven't, smash that like button down below, as Johnny would say, obliterate that like button. Our views to likes ratio is not good enough. Smash that like button down below. And, of course, if you're not subbed here on Circles Off, make sure you do so. Check out Pinnacle. If you're in Canada, use code HAMMER when signing up. This has been another edition of Circles Off. Thank you, gstack. 

01:10:58 - G-Stack George Tsilfidis (Co-host)
Thank you for having me. 

01:10:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We still didn't find out your source of income. Unfortunately, we might be able to get to the bottom of that at that point. Until next week, everyone enjoy your week. We'll see you next week.