00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm pretty sure the Dolphins had the lead in the first half of that game and then Buffalo just had an incredible second half. What's going through your head during that game? 

00:08 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
My going through my head is man. The Bills probably left 17 points on the field in the first half and then the second thought was man, second place will be just as good. 

00:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 138, right here, part of the Hammer Betting Network and presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook, I'm Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from Betstamp. 

00:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Robbie P. What's going on? 

00:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think I've seen that sweater before. It's a purple lettering. 

00:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is the gray and purple. It's a banger. Limited edition. 

00:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Also. This one's a banger right. 

00:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That is a banger. Also, this one's a banger. Right, that is a banger. A lot of people received some Pinnacle swag in Ontario the other day. No, thanks to the podcast, we've been getting a lot of hate mail. People want us to do some merch giveaways, rob, where are we on that? 

00:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We got one going on right now. You can head over to thehammerbet forward, slash the nails and you can sign up for a merch giveaway. Pinnacle swag bag, betst giveaway, pinnacle swag bag, bet stamp swag bag as well, free to enter. It's all you got to do. Head over to thehammerbet, forward, slash the nails. We do have some message boards there as well if you just want to join part of the community. But we're going to be doing a Q&A coming up here, probably in a few weeks post Super Bowl. We're going to take a bunch of questions in there. So in the circles off thread as well, post any questions you want to see us ask answer on the q a and we will get to those as well episode 138 is number 38. 

01:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, so this one was one. I saw a guy in vegas at a ufc event wearing this jersey and I was fired up. 

01:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Carlos zambrano zambrano yeah, zambrano man, if that guy could have figured out his control, he would have been. I mean, he was a great pitcher for a while, but he got, he was all over the place, I think kurt shillings was the better picture blood in the sock. Uh, I, I still don't, I'm still not buying that story that was yeah, you've talked about before. 

01:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're not buying that I did the conspiracy theory on the oh yeah, yeah that was, that went viral, that one I, I think. 

02:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you know, knowing what I know about Curt Schilling, after the fact, like in real time, I thought it was blood, but now my opinion of him has changed over time. 

02:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Ketchup ketchup packet. 

02:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It could have been something I wouldn't put him past it. If there was like an athlete I wouldn't put it past to do something like that. It's Curt Schilling. 

02:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
NFL. We have Ramondre Stevenson running back on the Patriots right now. He'll be out of the league in a couple years 38s are tough. 

02:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're really tough. Any NHLs? Rasmus Sandy? 

02:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fraser, mclaren, former Maple Leaf yeah, we know all the. 

02:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Leafs. It's tough. Pavel Dimitra used to wear 38. He was a great player for a while. I think he died in a plane crash. 

02:47 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Yeah, he did. 

02:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah it was a plane crash. Oh, his team, his team. 

02:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was messed up. Very sad it's messed up. You don't see stuff like that very often. 

02:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Also, what you don't see very often is what bet over in Canada for those listening, yeah Well. Yeah, apparently something blew up where you can get an off-market price on the Ravens. What do you think happened there? 

03:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I honestly have been thinking about this for a while. So it was basically like one and a half games where this happened for right. It was the Ravens for a bit and the Chiefs as well. 

03:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't have a great explanation, so explain to people what actually like, what the edge was there. 

03:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So basically one specific sports book dealing way off market prices. Like when I say way off market, you could have arbed basically anywhere else on the other side on these games. That's how off market it was. And like you just don't see that that doesn't happen in our industry nowadays. Pinnacle, you know market making books out there set a line, they move, everybody else goes and copies them. It's very unusual. You're going to see a major market NFL side up at a very different price and I'm going to go back. We can erase that on the board. 

04:03
Zach, because I consulted for sportsbooks back in the day. I'm going to tell you when I consulted for a major offshore sportsbook, if they were going to do something like this and put out way off-market prices to generate more first-time depositors or just get a bunch of traction to the sportsbook, they would have promoted the shit out of it. First time depositors or just get like a bunch of traction to the sports book, they would have promoted the shit out of it Like they would have spent an entire week promoting that they had that offer available. 

04:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They didn't promote it at all. 

04:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, this wasn't there. Then you got to ask yourself like was it just a mistake where they didn't cap the boost? Like, bet boosts everywhere are limited, right, you go place a bet, a boost somewhere it's 50 bucks, a hundred bucks here and there. Maybe they didn't, you know. Just they didn't cap it. Someone forgot to do that. But that doesn't explain how, like, my buddy Hitman could get a $15,000 bet, whereas I could get a $750 bet and my other buddy, who's already limited on his account, could only get a $50 bet and my other buddy, who's already limited on his account, could only get a $50 bet. Like something's not adding up here, I think they just messed up, not a promo. 

05:12
I honestly think I don't know if I honestly don't know if it was related to the mattress Mac thing, but I think that they had real big exposure on sides where they had to do something to balance the action. This is my rational explanation for this. I don't know what else it could be. It'd be actually very interesting if at some point we could talk to Shipper again and get him back on the show just to do like walk through this specific example. 

05:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But the fact that they had no promo, in my opinion, pretty much rules out the fact that it was on purpose, like as a promotion, because they didn't advertise it. Like I don't think it was a promo to get people to sign up and like do it, whether they got people to sign up or not. The other thing is if you're going to like lay off action or sorry, not lay off action, I don't know what you want to even call it. But if you're going to try to like reduce liability for the sports book, like I don't think you have to go with that off market. 

06:03
On the number, you could have just been a little. You could have been pro. So they were dealing minus nine and a half plus one 10 and you could play back on any other sports book roughly at plus 10 minus one 10. So you would have had like a zero risk chance at what would be like a half middle there. If Houston lost by exactly 10, you would have won the uspn bet and lost wherever else you played it. But if you can bet unlimited on that, it seems like a no-brainer for the uh, the average, better looking to cash in on a potential lottery ticket with no risk I. 

06:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think like I've gone through all the scenarios in my head. None of them really make a lot of sense. The only one that somewhat makes sense is that they just had a ton of exposure on the game. How they built up that exposure, I don't know. Typically speaking, in my experience, in order to get to an exposure that high, the trading team would have to go to the CEO or to the board of directors and say, hey, we're building up this potential loss here. Are you guys comfortable with that? And then the board or the CEO or executive team would make a decision and tell people what to do in that instance. I don't know. I honestly don't know how you get to that. 

07:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What did they take on the plus 10? Or did they take plus 10, plus nine and a half? What were they? High on exposure Because they could have opened themselves up to even more exposure. 

07:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Essentially on a yeah, I, I agree on a push. It's almost like someone is making a decision at another level that was like no, no, we can't lose x amount of dollars if this happens, do whatever you can to get off as much of this position as possible. We're comfortable with this amount of exposure. And then they run that. But why? They would like give x amount of bets to some people and y amount of bets to others, and I, I honestly don't. One day I'd love to see a 30 for 30 on what exactly happened here, because a lot of it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. And it's you know, it's a new sports book in the united States. Really weird, really weird overall. But you know what I'm all about treating players very fairly. I don't like when sports books give X limits to one guy, y to another, z to another, and that's why I highly recommend you check out Pinnacle Sports Book, the fairest book for sports bettors out there. Limits are always posted on every single bet. You can just click it. What I get to bet is the same as what Johnny gets to bet, it's the same as what Zach gets to bet, and you get to do it at very good prices as well. They pride themselves on the low margins. We talk about it all the time on this show, but you better be price shopping, and you got to do that with Pinnacle in business for 25 years for a reason. So bet smart, bet Pinnacle, your trusted sportsbook the past 25 years. Use code HAMMER when signing up, as it does help support the show here. 

08:53
Circles Off. Of course, you must be 19 plus not available in the US and, as always, please play responsibly. We do have a guest episode today, but before we get into it, we are very close to cracking 5k subs here on circles off. Do what you can sub down below, hit that notification bell so you get alerted when we have new episodes and, of course, if you can as well, share this out to the community. People are giving us great feedback on the recent shows. We love putting them together, but we do want to get this out to the masses, so please share our content as well. Our guest this week comes to us as the winner of this year's circa million taken home one million dollar top prize with a record of 62, 27 and one against the spread an all-time great season. You can follow him on twitter at maddie saint, matt saint, now joins us here on Circles Off Matt, how's it going? 

09:47 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
It's going great, guys. Thanks for having me. Yeah, no problem at all. 

09:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Matt, congrats on the big win. Very impressive, obviously, and a lot of game theory and strategy in this contest. Before we get into that, why don't you just tell us about yourself how did you kind of get into betting the contest, stuff like that, and a little bit about your background? 

10:13 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Yeah, so I work in finance, revenue and markets a big, large Fortune 500 company. Reside in the suburbs of Minneapolis with my wife. I've got twin five-year-old boy girl. So that's just. You know a little bit of my personal background. Um, from a sports betting background, contest background, uh, we don't have legalized gambling in Minnesota so it's a little challenging. Um, so my, my gambling background resolves around boys trips to Vegas, um, and then office pools and pick them contests with me and my my buddies at home. So, uh, not too much from a background standpoint. As far as the big Vegas contests, like the Super Contest or the Circa Millions, this was the first go-around at it. 

10:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you mentioned the contests. A lot of us have done those office pools, really fun. Do you do any flat betting or straight betting yourself? 

11:00 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Not too much, just dabbling a little bit. So a lot of my background is is pretty limited, to be honest. It's just, uh, you know, me and my I've got a couple of buddies that we, we text back and forth or we create lines in our heads the last few years. Um, so the background on this is, you know, pretty rare probably, but yeah, I don't have much of a a betting career or or historical, you know, uh, presence or anything like that. This is kind of a first time go at it and definitely struck lightning here. 

11:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. So that's interesting because let's start right at the beginning of the story, right here, with the Circa Millions for this year. But most people who aren't involved in regulated sports betting or betting on a day-to-day basis, they might not even know that a contest like Circa Millions exists out there. Obviously, it's very big for us who are in the betting space, people who frequent Circa and travel there to Las Vegas. How did you find out about the competition in the first place? 

11:58 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Yeah, so I've been following Derek and Mike Palm for years through VSIN. They were back on my Guys in the Desert, so I'd listen to VSIN almost every day. Even without sports betting legalized, I just found a lot of interest in the markets and the numbers and stuff and working with numbers every day. I just found that to be a lot more fun and relevant to follow around the NFL and stuff. And then obviously I play a lot of DFS. So a lot of the Vegas lines contribute into DFS methodology and game theory also. So you'd be paying attention in that regard. But as far as circa millions, you know been a big fan of Derek and Mike Palm from the sidelines for a number of years. 

12:38
Um, I had done some offshore contests, um with with a book, um, and to kind of test the waters. I knew Circa Millions was there. So I wanted to at least test my skills a little bit the last couple of years before entering the Circa Million, just because I play low stakes like $50, $100 entries for a full year, $1,000 entries, kind of different stakes for what I'm used to. So that's how I got interested in it. I've been following it for a number of years of a different um, I don't know different stakes for for what I'm used to, so, um. So that's how I got interested in it. I've been following it for a number of years and then last year it was right around the Superbowl where I had a conversation with my wife Like I want to, I want to do this contest, I want to bet on myself, I want to do millions, I want to sign up for survivor, um, and then started the kind of the planning process at that time. 

13:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um started kind of the planning process. At that time Did you end? 

13:27 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
up going with one entry. Did you do multi-entries for this year? I just did the one entry for millions. I had two survivor, one millions. Yeah, I just wanted to test it out. This was my first year entering, so I didn't want to go too big. 

13:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, you did go big, Absolutely. So what was your strategy picking? Were you just like trying to originate the plays, or was it more like looking at the numbers and seeing what was you know? Contest strategy? 

14:06 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
and then I updated that throughout the draft and three agency process and then I kind of compared my ratings versus the opening lines for week one just to see how close I was. So I was kind of like step one in the process. And then I well you know, once you had three or four weeks of data throughout the season, I'd bring in more of the advanced metrics with DVOA and EPA, as those meant more as the season went on. And then I'd also know do a lot of individual matchup analysis. So, comparing the offensive line versus defensive lines, I'd compare the wide receiver versus quarterback matchups and try to gain a little bit of understanding of, you know, coverage schemes or the different personnel tendencies, and you know where teams were good versus bad. 

14:47
So it was a very holistic process. I would do a full matchup analysis for each game and then I'd also kind of come up with my own score in my head, compare it against power ratings, you know, and then create a shortcut and then ultimately a confidence factor that I had just in my gut, you know, feel of you know, based on itest, based on my numbers, um, you know how did everything sort through and and kind of sort it out and then, obviously, as the week would progress on fridays and saturdays, you could see how the lines and the markets would move versus what the the contest lines you know, those are stagnant as of thursday afterons you know. See how those you know change over the remaining 48 hours before picks were due. 

15:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So did you put your picks in right before they were due, or a bit earlier? 

15:34 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Typically it was, you know, within an hour or two of pick submission. I think the first couple weeks I'd submit Friday nights and I, you know, I kind of learned early on I need to prolong that as long as possible. Um, so I coach my kids hockey on Saturday mornings, so sometimes that'd be a conflict where, like, I would just try to get that in so I wouldn't, you know, miss my picks or get caught up in the locker room or anything like that. So, um, but I ultimately, you know, as the week or as the year progressed, my process got a lot more refined and I could, you know, friday nights were long nights in my office just going through everything, and I'd usually go to bed with my probably my five picks at that point, with two alternates, and then I'd compare on Saturdays when I'd get home and just make sure that I still felt comfortable with, uh, with what I had wrote down. 

16:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so you had a pretty thorough process in coming up with your number for the game. Was all of that manual and if so, how long was it taking you on a weekly basis? Because that's pretty time consuming, comparing O-lines, d-lines of every team, all the matchup based analysis. If you're just doing it basically by hand or manually, how much was actually going into this on a weekly basis? 

16:45 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
much was actually going into this on a weekly basis. Yeah, it became. It became a full-time job, if not more than my regular day job. If I'm not going to, I'm not going to lie to you about it. 

16:50
But um, I did use a lot of sources, though. Like I'd use the um. Ben Baldwin has great um resources, so his EPA metrics I'd download. Uh, the Sumer sports um Sports databases were great to leverage, so I'd use those. There's multiple sites where you can download data and then I'd manually feed it into my Excel spreadsheets and then I'd have full matchup comparisons and I had 20 or 25 different comparisons which probably became over-analysis at the end of the day of things, comparisons which probably became over analysis at the end of the day of things. But, um, I guess just kind of falls back and you know what I do for work and everything like. Like, I'm kind of a, you know, an analytical guy by nature, so, um, that just kind of falls into my, in my skillset and how I like to think, think through things, think things through at the end of the day. 

17:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
How much were you influenced by outside sources, if at all? So a lot of times, whenever people are handicapping the NFL, they might be consuming like five different pieces of content over the course of the week from people that they respect, and maybe that might alter their opinion based off of something that somebody says, whether it's explicitly a pick that's given out or maybe just an angle in the game. How much of that fed into what you you did? Did you consume content on a weekly basis, or was this just like you know? I'm gonna clear my head. 

18:10 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
do my own thing, submit my own numbers no, I definitely consumed a lot of content, maybe too much content at the end of the day, just a couple off the top of my head. You know I'd listen to turn off almost every day. I listen to your show with Suma and with hitman on Wednesdays, as an example, and so what I would do during those podcasts I take a lot of notes. There's a lot of work and stuff that I don't have the capacity to do because, you know, this is my full time job. So I try to understand angles that I might not have considered. 

18:43
I'd also try to like hear a devil's advocate. So if I have a lean on a game and someone you know has a different lean, try to like understand why. And then also it helps help me understand where I think the public versus the sharp side of games could ultimately be and also understand what consensus picks could be at the end of the day too. So I would take a lot of notes, try to understand where the sides were. I tried not to let it influence what I ultimately picked. 

19:12
You know sometimes there'd be, you know, if I was confident in three or four games and I was struggling for a fifth. You know, maybe rely on some of the notes I had took through the week and maybe some of the people I really respected, of what their heavy liens were or best, best bets, but I tried not to influence that just cause I didn't want to be, you know, just going with, you know, the group think process of of everything. So, yeah, definitely consumed a lot of content, but it was also just trying to sort through it all and and try to understand where where the picks were going to be landing from a consensus standpoint as well. 

19:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I was just going to say I appreciate your support in listening to Rob show. I don't know how much that contributed to the overall win. 

19:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
My best bets this year. Listen. Very small sample size, but whenever you're over 500 and you make money, you got to pat yourself on the back and promote it as much as possible just to stay away from hitman this year, I guess was yeah, I mean, if you just faded his best bets for for one of your picks every single week. 

20:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You would have went like 15 and three if you tailed him, you would end it up at the bottom too, so you actually would have still made money prize. 

20:16
Yeah, go for the booby prize next year with him as it, as the contest progressed, I I mean, I'm assuming at the start there's not much stress in there, right, it's a thousand dollar entry. But as it starts getting into the money and you realize like hey, I'm near the top of the board, maybe let's say actually, I guess how many weeks left until you started like really sweating and you're like, wow, I might win this thing uh, I would say the, the, probably the week after thanksgiving. 

20:44 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
So I had um, jumped from like 30th in the contest to ninth and then the following week I had like a four and one or five and oh again and went to first for the first time. That's when, like the anxiety really like started to like hit and it was like more of like I don't want to screw this up, I don't want to like, I don't want to miss, you know, something. That's really apparent. So I would go probably to the next level of going through the games and at times like I think I overdid it. But I also just didn't want this opportunity to go and like kick myself at the end of the day for not spending that extra hour or two in the office of trying to like look for every nook and cranny through a matchup um and trying to find any sort of edge or thought that I had um. So that was when the anxiety really started kicking in and then um. I would also say that was the first week I had the, the thought of like I truly do have a shot at winning the contest. 

21:39
I had surpassed a lot of players. You know Fezzik, for instance. He was in the top five for almost the whole season, up until the last three weeks. You know, seeing him at the top of the board and knowing his track record in these contests, like I knew it wasn't going to be easy going down the stretch. And you know I was fearful every Saturday of submitting a one in four or oh in five. You know I was fearful every saturday of submitting a one and four or oh and five. That was like going through the back of my mind every week of just like hopefully this isn't the week where, um, you know, the regression hits wow, I can. 

22:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can imagine the pressure that's in that type of situation, I mean, in the beginning of the year. It's everyone's game. Whatever you submit your picks, you hope for the best, but once you're actually at the top and and you can, you know, realize you can almost taste the money. It's, uh, I'm sure it's a different story. Uh, on the same subject, I kind of want to just like talk about the evolution of the contest as the year goes on, because you're there at the beginning of the year, you're making your picks, you're going through your process, but I'm sure there's probably not a lot of game theory that's going through your head at the beginning of the year. You can correct me if I'm wrong, but I imagine you're running your numbers, you're playing your biggest edges, you get to thanksgiving, you know you get that bump. You now see yourself in the top 10 down the stretch. I imagine that things were very different for you in making selections, because you have to be more cognizant of what other people are thinking oh, oh, 100%. 

22:58 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Week 17 is a great example of that. It was Jags and Panthers and the contest line was six. I think it got down to three or three and a half and I had a one and a half or two-point lead at that point. So that became almost an autoplay, just a place like there's huge closing line value. I'm guessing that out of the top 10 or top 15, 50% plus are going to be on that game as well. So, even if I really wasn't a big fan of it per se, like I think it's just becomes a play. Um, you know, earlier on in the year, I think like I benefited from fading some of those closing line value games. Um, so, like I wasn't. Definitely, it was definitely not an autoplay for me at that point. 

23:40
Um, you know, one of the games that comes to mind is like the, the San Francisco Cleveland game earlier in the year. Um, I think the contest closed at six. I think the line was at like 10 or something by the time kickoff came and I was just like man, cleveland's got a great D, the weather's going to be crummy, you know there's gonna be a lot of people on this game. So I ultimately just faded it so, um, so I benefited from, you know, examples like that. 

24:07
But then at the end of the year, at the game theory standpoint, even, um, you know, week 18, I took Baltimore, or yeah, I took Baltimore, uh, with, uh, I think, the contest line was three or no, it was, contest line was four. They got down to plus three at kickoff. And then the Giants as well, the contest line was plus five, they was plus four. So there's two examples there where I ended up taking the closing line value. As chip leader I was actually a fan of the Giants, I mean, the Baltimore game was fine too. But I also envisioned that out of the top ten, like there was going to be a lot of overlap and so during that time frame, with like game theory etc, like I wasn't opposed to overlaps there and kind of, just kind of heavy blockers and you know, crossing, crossing people, you know, in fifth to tenth place out of the, out of the money were you manically refreshing the circa twitter account to see when the pics would come out? 

24:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
or were you just like like, ah, you know, I got my picks in, I'll see what's going? 

25:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
on. Did you go through every person and then see that? 

25:06 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Not until the last probably two or three weeks did I start going through that, like I had always watched the V-CIN. On Saturday nights There'd be the contest show, so I'd watch that just to see where the top five was, where it was landing, um, so I'd watch that just to see where the top five was, um, where it was landing. And then, week 18, I was actually in Vegas, I did a VEASAN segment right when the picks were being announced. So I like scrambled, I did the VEASAN segment, went up to the hotel room, I got my computer open and was kind of scrambling to figure out where everybody was and figure out what what kind of edge place I needed to lay in the book on a Saturday night, sunday morning. So I had a group of three buddies out there with me sweating the games we had. We had fun just trying to, you know, dial everything in on a Saturday night and Sunday morning. So that was great. 

25:48
But yeah, the last like two or three weeks, I think, the top 10, I'd kind of document what their picks were and sort of through it. And then, as I made my picks week 18, that was probably the most I tried to like understand where the top five had been playing for the last like three or four weeks. Try to understand that they had any trends or things I could pick up on, if they were guys that played closing line value or if they were dog players or they like to play faves or, you know, home team, road team stuff. So I really dug in that week, probably more than any other week, just because prior to that there's so much variance and volatility with making five picks, with how many people are in contention, I thought it was kind of a fruitless exercise, to be honest. But week 17, week 18, it became a lot more real and exercisable. I'd say yeah. So week 18. 

26:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So week 18 you're at circa, you're watching the games. I was going to ask you about hedging, because that I mean this we we talked about the survivor pool, which was massive for this competition, like nine million, and whether or not people were going to be hedging, working out deals. You're in first place, going into the final week of the season and you did decide to hedge on, uh, on some of your plays there. 

26:58 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
I did on week 18 I didn't do anything you know prior to that on some of your plays there. I did on week 18. I didn't do anything prior to that just because, like I said, there's so much variability and volatility with five picks against spread with how tight the standings are every week and you know you have one bad week and you're kind of. You know you can fall from a 1 million to 30,000 really quick. But week 18, I had a really good understanding of kind of where my um, my, my fall points were. So I was able to place like a a pretty reasonable bet. 

27:28
I had Falcons plus three and a half, uh, week 18. So I was able to take the opposite with saints and monetize that. And then, uh, so that was one of the bigger plays of the week. And then going into the final game was the Miami and Buffalo game and I knew I just needed Buffalo just to even push what it got me the, the championship there. So I did do a fairly sizable hedge on the Dolphins that night, but still still definitely top heavy. But I was able to at least, you know, bridge the gap a little bit if Buffalo fell that night. 

28:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What was the feeling watching that Bills game? Because I don't remember it exactly, but what a sweat that it comes down to the final game of the year, sunday night football for you. I'm pretty sure the Dolphins had the lead in the first half of that game and then Buffalo just had an incredible second half. What's going through your head during that game? 

28:19 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Going through my head is man, the Bills probably left 17 points on the field in the first half. And then the second thought was man, second place will be just just as good. And then, and then the so I wasn't like I wasn't really too nervous throughout that whole game until so Deontay Hardy had that 95 yard punt return and that got me and my buddies like fired up again because we had kind of just been like mellow, like just absorbing everything going on that night. Um, and then Buffalo took, they got I think they they got the punt return to tie it up. I think they went three and out and they marched down and got like a lead with like seven minutes to go. 

28:55
And that's when the nerves really started to like hit me that I could win, because up until that point you're kind of just like all right, I got second locked in at worst, but then you can like it's in your hands at that point and you just you want it so bad that like you're just you're firing, like every sort of part of emotion in your body is going crazy. Um, and then josh allen had a fourth in inches that you know, if he converts that, they just take, you know two or three knees and it's over. And he didn't get it. And so me and my buddies were standing up. We were standing up ready for that, and he didn't get him. Like all right guys, let's go sit down and so they still got it on the. 

29:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think it was a pick there at the end yeah. 

29:35 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
So what's going through my head at that point was man, all right, dolphins are going to march down. Who was going to hit tyreek on a long play? 

29:42
they're going to go for two because they're banged up they don't want to play overtime, you know, and no matter what happens that circumstance, you know ryan, who was second place, he's going to cover the game and take, take, take first place. So that was going through my brain. And then, um, you know the minute that, um, I can't remember, was it rap that made that interception? Um, my wife FaceTimes me immediately and we, you know, we have a really, really awesome moment together. Like she's in, she's stunned and shocked. Um, I'm stunned and shocked. I'm stunned and shocked. How is this even real? Is this real life right now? So it was just such a cool moment to experience that, even though it was FaceTime with my wife and I had three of my best buds out there too, and so we had a heck of a night, I'd say. 

30:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh yeah, that's a truly amazing moment. Just to celebrate that with your friends and family In the sportsbook at that time, did, was there like a buzz around you? Did people know who you were? Like you were the guy that was going to win millions in real time, or was it? Was it just your, your tight knit group of friends there? 

30:45 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
It was basically just a tight, tight knit group. We had a group to our right that was kind of making comments like oh, I remember my first $1,000 play too. They had no idea. It's like we'd be celebrating and they're kind of giving us crap or whatever, A million dollars on the line here bud. 

31:01
And they have no clue. Two tables to our left were the guys that ended up finishing third or fourth and they had Buffalo too. So we hadn't known each other until probably halftime and we kind of figured it out. The second place guy I hadn't seen him all day and you know, when I talked to him last weekend at the, the award ceremony he had been hanging out kind of incognito at the you know the upper level of circa um, just kind of mellow, I guess. You know saturday night everything was going his way and that's where him and his buddies were hanging out, so they didn't want to lose the karma there. So there was no like buzz around me at all. 

31:35
Um derrick had him and like the survivor winners, hanging up in his little area where he likes to sit, so there wasn't really too much uh commotion or anything. But there's definitely a buffalo bill side in the book. I'd say like um, it seemed like anytime buffalo did anything good. There was a little bit more of a roar versus when the Dolphins were. So I think there were a lot of Buffalo Bills supporters in that room that night. 

31:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, very interesting story. Just a really random question here, just out of curiosity when you were hedging your bets that day, did Circa let you do it on credit, like were you able to take it out of your winnings even though you know you hadn't won yet? 

32:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Or did you actually have to? 

32:17 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
bring a boatload of cash with you to get it done A duffel bag. I would say, like the circus staff was incredible during this whole process. Jeff Benson was awesome to work with they. They loaned on credit and they adjusted. You know whatever you needed based off of you know where you were in the contest. I know that the survivor is probably a little easier to understand the monetization, but Jeff Benson, his team, derek and the whole team they were really open with markers and credit that weekend so I was able to take out without flying across country with a duffel bag of cash. 

32:52
Hopefully they didn't hedge too much the volumes I was able to hedge at. That'd be a little tough to get out of my own bank account. I'd say that too. 

32:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
For sure. Well, congrats on the win once again. Very cool story. I can only imagine how much fun that must have been like being in the book. And then it ended on a game-winning interception to end the game. 

33:13
So it wasn't even over, like sometime. I mean, I guess you probably would have been just as fired up maybe to you know, for the Bills to have been up by 30 and had it sealed by the start of the fourth. But to have, like the one play that does it, that's even more of a fire up. And I remember, actually I had the Bills that game as well and I was fired up for the uh like just obviously nowhere near the uh, the bed size there, but a lot, a lot of fun. I was riding with you that day. Um, here's what I was going to ask you in general All right, you win a million. Probably a lot of people are asking you this what are you going to do with that? Are you going to roll that into some sort of, like you know, betting bankroll now and, like, start doing this more, or is it savings? 

33:56 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Oh, it's savings and investment. You're talking to a finance guy here, so I'll be. You know Uncle Sam's going to take a good chunk of change in taxes, so you have to put a good amount to the side of that and then load up our kids 529 education funds and then invest the difference, probably for a while. My wife and I we've had the talks in the last couple of years of getting a lake place in Minnesota, so we'll have a cabin with a boat down the future here, but for now we'll invest and let it grow a little bit, put aside for the taxes, make sure the kids are taken care of, and that's the only thing. Um, you know that's on our radar right now. So try to try to be prudent and responsible with it. 

34:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So it's not I guess you'd call it then not necessarily life changing money Like nothing's really going to change. 

34:49 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
It's life changing, though Like we're not going to change our lifestyle. You know we're going to be. You know we have kids in hockey and private Catholic school and stuff, so their tuition will be taken care of, their hockey is taken care of and um, but we're going to be able to live a lot more simpler and you know we're not going to have any sort of like financial burden or anything. You know what I mean. Like just like that freedom that comes with it. I think that's life-changing to me. You know we're going to take the kids on a nice vacation and do a little. You know more things that we otherwise might not be able to do, or things a little quicker in our trajectory than we thought. You know, maybe we'll get a cabin in three years versus, you know, 10 years. So I think I'd still call it life-changing money for sure. 

35:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough. How's the hockey scene over there? You your uh head coach. 

35:30 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
There you head coach I'm head coach of our kids are in rookie mites. So these are, you know, five and six year olds. So it's a lot of just organized chaos on the ice. Little pond hockey, you know all that sort of stuff there's. You kind of put a puck out and let them have at it. There's not too much structure, which is fun, but, yeah, hockey scene in minnesota. 

35:48
If you're not familiar, hockey scene in in Minnesota is top notch. It's, uh. We sell out the Excel Energy Center for our state high school tournaments every year, and it's, you know it's awesome. 

35:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We know, we know and I know uh, minor hockey's, you know, growing ever, uh, ever so fast in the US and Minnesota is, like you know, either number one or at least top three at the minimum for USA right now. A lot of talent coming out of there, so that's why it's interesting. But you think you're going to coach throughout and keep going. 

36:16 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
I'll coach until maybe they're like 9 or 10, and then I'll let some volunteers take over. I don't want the politics or the stress or the parent stuff. I used to coach Bantam hockey about 10 years ago and parents can kind of get in the way a little bit. 

36:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I'll let someone else coach my kids. 

36:35 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
I'll enjoy the experience watching them. You know, from the stands I think uh, once they get into like more advanced levels every parent. 

36:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, better to be a parent getting in the way than a coach with parents trying to get in it's tough. 

36:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean we both, me and johnny, both grew up in hockey, and producer zach as well. Every parent thinks that their kids should be getting the most ice time all the time. Makes for a very very challenging for the coaches out there. 

36:57 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
I've always they're the next Conor McDavid or Bedard or Gretzky. You know, it's just like I had a I was coaching at out of town hockey tournament and he had a parent come up to me with a, you know, a face off and breakout, play on a napkin. You know, after a few drinks, like come on, like stay out of my way, I'm just trying to have a couple of drinks here. 

37:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I get it. This might sound like a weird question because you won the million, but if you, when you're looking back at the competition as a whole, is there anything that you would have changed or done differently in terms of your approach or picks like just revisiting it now that it's in the rearview mirror anything that, if you were going to do this again, going forward which you probably will what would you? 

37:37 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
change. So I think I would probably reduce a little bit of like the numbers and the maybe like the various metrics I'd look at. I try to simplify it a little bit more next year. I think I got a little overcome with data points a little bit, where you know they conflict each other at the end of the day and these lines are so efficient anyway that you know they kind of just clouds your, clouds, your brain and judgment. I'd also probably reduce the number of content folks I listen to, just to you know. 

38:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like I said, stick with forward progress, though, stick with forward progress. 

38:13 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
I'll listen to, turn off, probably continuous, but I'll probably try to reduce it to, you know, two or three a week versus, you know, probably like the five or seven I listen to. So I'll try to just try to reduce the number of voices in my head a little bit. But at the end of the day I really like my process. I'd update power ratings every Monday. I really like that, that part of it. I'll continue downloading the key advanced metrics with DVOA and EPA and how I did the matchup analysis using those metrics. I think those were extremely valuable but I think I just tried to reduce the outside noise a little bit more than I. Um, at the end of the year? 

38:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
um, just to make things a little simpler, how much of a role do you think luck played in your, your victory like from? 

39:01 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
okay, go ahead. Yeah, I was gonna say a ton, like so many games you know, coming down to the last minute and a half or coming down to a two-point conversion decision or not. Um, I mean, there's so many points and like even the, even the losses. I know a great variance this year, but like there are a lot of the ones I did lose, there's a couple, you know, points that could have easily gone the other way too, but I think each week, these, these games and lines are so efficient that it's going to come down to something in the last five minutes of the game to decide it. But, you know, definitely a lot of luck. 

39:35
Um, as I think through some of the games, that luck was on my, in my favor. Um, I had, I had the browns the night there or the afternoon they were playing the jags and, uh, jags were about to backdoor cover and they decided to go for two instead of kicking the extra point to make it three, and that that was the difference between covering and not covering. Um, so that's one example zay flowers not taking a knee on an end around in house of it. So I had the ravens that night. That was on my side, you know like. So there's like little things. 

40:04
But then I had kc, when they're favored against philly and you know kelsey's at the 10 and fumbles, like that could have gone. You know Kelsey gets that touchdown. They probably, you know, route Philly and that opened the door for Philly. So, like every week, I think, is going to come down to. You know there's very few rocking chairs in this league, um, so I think you know there's there's tons of luck. Um, I'm sure regression will hit me hard next year, but I'm certainly enjoying this year's, this year's variance. Correct me if I'm certainly enjoying this year's, this year's variants. 

40:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Correct me if I'm wrong. I might be wrong on this. It might be the survivor, not the millions, but did. Did you win a blue jacket? I did win the blue jacket, yes do you plan on wearing the blue jacket at all, or is it just like, uh, you know, put it up in the house, it's going to remain in the closet? I'm just curious, because people have very, very differing opinions on the blue jacket yeah. 

40:52 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
So the jacket's beautiful, um, it's designed and tailored by the same same guy that does steve wins jackets, which is a really cool fun fact. Um, but, um, I'm planning to take it out kind of like the master's green jacket. So derrick's gonna have this you know ceremony. Every year I'll fly down to vegas and, uh, you know where this year was really cool, going down there, the there, the last two or three years worth of champions and millions, they, they had their blue jackets on for their ceremony. So it's really cool. Uh, I think derrick really wants to build it out like a little fraternity kind of of a group of guys that are able to, you know, overcome a lot of um, a lot of the odds and a lot of the circumstances and and stress along the way, and it will be really cool. I'm not going to wear it on a definitely not an everyday basis. It will be a special special occasion, but it's a. It's actually a beautiful jacket in person. 

41:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
For those who don't know when you sign up they ask you, so you fill out your info and then the bottom it says jacket size, which is a nice touch, just like. Hey, just in case, we'll take your sizing right now. 

41:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Left arm's a little longer than the right yeah. 

41:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, matt, I don't know, you mentioned listening to Pizzola's other show that gives out the football picks. Obviously, that's why he won the million, but I'm not sure how much you've listened to this particular program. At the end of every episode, with every guest, we ask them to give out a plus EV and a minus EV move of life. So it doesn't have to be betting related. It could be anything like hey, coach your kids hockey Cause you get whatever anything you could be, give us your plus EV move of the week. 

42:24 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Uh, plus EV move of the week reading um reading and um absorbing information, I'd say uh, as Reading and absorbing information, I'd say, as long as you're continually learning, reflecting, trying to self-improve, I think that's major plus EV in life. 

42:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Couldn't agree more. Great EV move what about minus EV move of the week? 

42:53 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
Minus EV is not having a purpose or a process for something you want to accomplish in life. So I think if you want to get after something, I think you have to have a plan goal situated. How are you going to accomplish those goals? Otherwise I think you're going to swim an uphill battle to try to get those accomplished. 

43:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love that piece. I really like that. First time we've heard it and it's a very great and valid one. Uh, finally, we'll close it off with this if you could go back five years and talk to a previous version of yourself, what advice would you give to your former self? 

43:22 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
I'd say self-belief um trust. Trust your instincts, do what you can to get to your goals. 

43:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'd say, like I said, go with your instincts trust your gut, do everything you can to accomplish your goals and keep looking forward and marching forward, and don't let outsiders tell you different. Fair enough. I'm actually going to add in one more question before we wrap up here, just because I think it's very pertinent for our audience. This has come up a lot with previous winners of contests. Where they win the contest, they go down the path of selling picks afterwards, trying to capitalize on their success. I'm not judging one way or another. I've spoken on this topic about a million times before. I think to each their own free market capitalism reigns supreme. Do you think that's ever an avenue that you'd pursue? 

44:14 - Matt Saint (Circa Millions Winner 2023) (Guest)
I don't think so. I think you know, just I could be a little disingenuous for me to sell picks as someone that can't bet sports legally. Yeah, I think I ran hot this year. I don't have the track record quite yet. You know if I can do this for two or three years maybe, but right now you know I'd be comfortable giving opinions. But I'm not going to sell picks. I'll. 

44:35
I'll be active on Twitter, um, maybe not during the contest season, um, but um, I don't have the, I don't have the thought right now to to go down that path of of selling picks or going down that. But you know, happy to jump on different podcasts or, you know, share opinions on things like that. But um, I don't think touting or um, you know if touting is a bad word to you, you know I don't mean it that way at all. But just like, just say that you know going down the path of a, you know what a sports better does with the frequency and things like that. I think it'd be a little disingenuous to go down. Go down that that uh path myself. 

45:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, really appreciate you sharing your story, matt. I could tell I mean it was like a roller coaster for you this year. I'm very happy that you won you seem like a great guy $1 million top prize, again, 62-27-1 against the spread. Those are the years that dreams are made of right there. You can follow him on Twitter at Matty, saint or X. Whatever we want to say nowadays, matt all the best. 

45:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not coming back, buddy, it's not coming back, appreciate you joining us. 

45:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For everyone out there, if you enjoyed this interview, smash that like button down below. Make sure you're subbed here on Circles Off. We'll be back next week with another interview. Thanks for listening. Stay tuned next week for another edition of Circles Off you.