Circles Off Episode 139 - Avoiding Limits at Sportsbooks

2024-02-02

 

Welcome to another exciting episode of the [Podcast Name]! In this week's episode titled "Mastering Super Bowl Bets and Longevity in Sports Betting: Insider Tips and Strategies," we dive deep into the art of making winning Super Bowl predictions and maintaining your sports betting accounts without getting flagged by sportsbooks. Hosted by Rob Pizzola and Johnny from BetStamp, this episode is packed with valuable insights and practical advice for both novice and experienced bettors.

 

Super Bowl Betting Secrets Revealed

 

The episode kicks off with a spirited discussion about the upcoming Super Bowl, where Rob is backing the 49ers while Johnny is cheering for the Chiefs. This debate sets the stage for a nostalgic look back at their previous Super Bowl prop shows, filled with memorable moments and successful picks. They also hype up their upcoming five-hour marathon of prop picks, which promises to be an exciting event for listeners.

 

Thriving in Sports Betting Without Getting Flagged

 

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to the evolution of betting strategies. The hosts reminisce about their early days of organizing high school March Madness brackets and their journey to mastering market dynamics. The story behind the moniker "Mr. Limited" and its amusing connection to Russell Wilson's "Mr. Unlimited" persona adds a humorous touch to the discussion.

 

The Art of Super Bowl Wagers and Account Longevity

 

Understanding betting line movements and the importance of odd screens are highlighted as crucial elements for success in sports betting. The episode delves into the challenges of being flagged by sportsbooks and offers practical advice for prolonging the life of your betting accounts while maximizing profits.

 

Avoiding Limits and Maximizing Sportsbook Profits

 

The hosts share insider tips on balancing aggressive betting tactics with the need to maintain account health. They discuss the importance of blending in with recreational players, using bonuses smartly, and placing strategic bets to avoid limits. The frustration of account limitations is also addressed, with strategies offered to keep your betting activities sustainable.

 

Winning Strategies and Account Management Techniques

 

The episode explores the strategy of finding breakeven bets and managing sports betting accounts effectively. The hosts discuss the importance of placing bets close to game time and mixing in slightly plus EV or break-even parlays to keep accounts looking natural. They also touch on the tactic of occasionally placing minus EV bets to give the appearance of a recreational player and prolong account lifespan.

 

 

The complexities and frustrations faced by sports bettors, particularly around account limitations imposed by sportsbooks, are discussed in detail. The hosts explore the rationale behind sportsbooks' decisions to limit sharp bettors and offer potential strategies to adapt betting styles to avoid quick limitations.

 

Managing Time and Betting Strategies

 

Balancing sports betting with other life priorities and managing time effectively are emphasized as crucial for long-term success. The episode highlights the necessity of prioritizing origination or finding alternative edges to achieve consistent income from sports betting.

 

 

The Pay Per Head (PPH) model and its potential as a part-time income source are explored, along with the importance of having multiple reliable sportsbooks to place bets. The hosts stress the necessity of maintaining connections with non-gambling friends or family to stay grounded during emotional highs and lows in betting.

 

Parking Protocol and Self-Reflection

 

In a lighter segment, the importance of proper parking etiquette is discussed, along with the benefits of writing and sharing thoughts, especially in the sports betting industry. The hosts reflect on how documenting ideas can enhance intelligence and wish they had started earlier. They also highlight the value of tracking bets to improve betting performance and encourage listeners to support the show by subscribing and engaging with the content.

 

Conclusion

 

This episode of the [Podcast Name] is a treasure trove of insider tips and strategies for mastering Super Bowl bets and maintaining account longevity in sports betting. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting, the practical advice and entertaining anecdotes shared by Rob and Johnny will equip you with the knowledge to outsmart the sportsbooks and achieve consistent success.

 

Tune in and elevate your sports betting game with the insights shared in this episode. Don't forget to engage with the hosts on the Forward Progress YouTube channel and their online forum for a chance to join the conversation and share your predictions. Happy betting!

 

 

About the Circles Off Podcast

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Episode Transcript

00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Mr Limited, mr Limited, mr Limited, mr Limited. 

00:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Mr Limited. Come on, let's go. 

00:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 139,. Right here on the Hammer Betting Network powered by Pinnacle Sportsbook, I am Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from BetStamp. How goes? 

00:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Very good. I'm very excited for the guest today. I think it should be a good one. How's everything with you, Rob? 

00:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Good, we have our Super Bowl matchup set. I'm excited, can't wait. The next couple weeks are going to be amazing. We've got the Super Bowl coming up, going to Jamaica afterwards, getting off the grid for relaxation, so I'm kind of stoked about it, of stoked about it uh, but yeah it's, you know it's just busy it's and finally, like once football season is over, I can't I'm not gonna say I can kick back and relax, but like a little bit of that stress is alleviated. You know what I'm getting at early pick for the super bowl. 

00:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Who do you have? You gotta make a call. He's gotta make a call. 

01:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll uh, it's tough man, he's gotta make a call. It's tough. No one has any idea why we're laughing right now. They're not gonna have A single clue as to what's going on Two weeks out. 

01:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The matchup is set. Who do you have? 

01:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what I'm just gonna. This is not my numbers or nothing like that. My gut tells me 49ers, take it down 49ers. My gut tells me, 49ers, take it down. 

01:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right. 

01:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I may be betting opposed to my gut. 

01:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm going to take the Chiefs. Okay, I'm going to take the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. Reminder to everybody, we do have our Super Bowl props show coming up next week. I guess we'll call it the third annual. 

01:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes. 

01:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fourth annual? That's a good question. If it's the fourth annual, I'll be fired up. I think it might actually be, because we started off on a prop show, then I gave out the Matt Stafford anytime, which was robbed. No, then last year. Yeah, because me and you are both 3-0, I think no, no, I'm, I gave up. 

02:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I damaged my record by giving out a. You were at ice last year. You were in London when you called in for your pick. Yeah, yeah, I know you won it. I did win it. It was a big fave. Who cares? No, let's do one before me. 

02:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, bro, the first episode we ever did was a Super Bowl prop special. Okay, so then this would be four, then, technically, because this is the third one. I've been here for Fourth annual Super Bowl prop special. 

02:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm still not convinced it's the fourth, but it's either the third or the fourth. 

02:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you count the first one as the one, we did the Brady versus Mahomes Super Bowl. 

02:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh yes. 

02:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Then it's the fourth. 

02:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, that. Oh, then it's the fourth. Yes, that was audio. Only we gave out prop picks. We gave five each. I me before me, that was pre-u. Yeah, that was pre-u. Yeah, jason cooper, that was actually with producer jason jason cooper takes by jay jason sins, as we call him now in the industry due to his proclivity to watching adult films. 

03:00
That will be on wednesday, january 7th, on the Forward Progress YouTube channel from I can't believe I agreed to this from 12 to 5 pm Eastern time. It's a five-hour Super Bowl props show. We've had a winning record every year. 

03:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
One year thanks to Leigh, with Luke giving it to Jesse Bates. We've got to actually bring him back, you know what we might bring him back. 

03:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We got to actually bring him back. You know what we might bring him back. 

03:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We'll bring him back for one. I think you know I have an absolute banger set already. I'm just looking at the numbers Like this is a surefire winner. Hopefully the number sticks around, but even if it moves a bit, I'm still giving this out, so no worries. 

03:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right Good to any number. 

03:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Almost no, not good to any number, but pretty much. 

03:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Good to any number. I love that. One Secondary to this as well, if you do want us to answer some questions on forward progress over the course of the next week. We're taking a lot of listener comments during live shows, but you can also head over to thehammerbet forward slash the nails. There's a forward progress thread right there. Drop your questions in there, we'll bring them up on shows. We'll answer them as well and of course, you can enter there to win some pinnacle swag and some bet stamp swag More prizes to come there as well. It's the hammerbet forward slash the nails, episode number 139. I know Steven Jackson, former running back, used to wear 39. I also know that Minka Fitzpatrick wears 39. Outside of that, I'm having a real problem. 

04:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I know two. They're both related by the dusty helmets they wore. First off, dominic Hasik wore the player helmet in net, yeah, and then the other one, dan Cloutier oh, dan Cloutier, on the canucks most notably, uh, noted for letting in the goal from center ice and that dusty helmet yeah, the dust, I dust like who else wore the dusty helmet hashek osgood tim thomas, no, thomas wore the very brutal one it was. 

04:59
It was brutal, but it wasn't quite the player do you remember arthur'sur Zerbe? Yeah, Artur Zerbe, of course he wore a duster helmet too. 

05:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No. 

05:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was the goalie that took Carolina to the finals in 2002, last time the Leafs were in the conference finals, that wasn't Cam Ward. No, cam Ward was in 2006, the rookie season. 

05:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're right, I'm bad with years. 

05:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Dom Hasek was the dominator sprawling all over the floor. First goalie to you know, just like be known for stacking the pads and just going nuts. 

05:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Speaking of dominating, they're dominating in Ontario right now and across Canada Pinnacle Sportsbook, an absolutely fantastic sportsbook for bettors out there. We promote them every single week, not because they pay us to do so, but because we actually believe in Pinnacle Sportsbook. I've been betting there for a long time and would highly encourage people to bet there. In today's episode we're going to be joined by a guest. Let's be talk about talk about being limited at a bunch of different sportsbooks that he bets at. One of those is not pinnacle, because pinnacle doesn't limit players. They treat everyone fairly. Make sure you check them out. 

06:03
25 years in business, bet smart bet pinnacle, your trusted sportsbook. And, of course, if you want to support us here on circles off, we're right in around the 5k subs right now. One thing you can do use code hammer, sign up at pinnacle sportsbook. You must be 19 plus not available in the us and, of course, please, please, play responsibly. The second thing you can do is absolutely obliterate that like button down below and make sure you subscribe here on Circles Off. It goes a long way to helping us grow the channel. Our guest on this week's episode is on Twitter at Mr Limited L-I-I-M-I-T-E-D. Mr Limited L-I-I-M-I-T-E-D. 

06:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Mr. 

06:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Limited Limited somewhere. Sharing how not to get limited elsewhere is his Twitter bio. We'll talk to him a little bit about that today. Mr Limited now joins us here on Circles Off. How are things? 

07:02 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Good man. Thank you guys for having me Excited to get into it. Talk about a bunch of stuff, um, hopefully keep those accounts open a little bit longer so, off the rip, we got to go into the name. 

07:13
Here are you, mr limited, because russ wilson is mr unlimited yeah, I uh, you know, I've been thinking about sort of how to start writing about my experience, you know, trying not to get limited at sports books, and as I finally started gaining, uh, you know, a few followers, a little traction, um, on a Twitter, that was right Like at the start of this year when Russ had played a couple of good games and that Mr Unlimited video surfaced again. So, uh, just decided to throw Mr Limited in the bio, and apparently people like that. 

07:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So why not? I do think it's very clever, it's great. It's one of Johnny's favorite clips of all time I remember. I don't remember where we were going, johnny, but like we were in a car driving somewhere and you're like you never seen this Mr Unlimited clip and we listened to it like yeah you, you hadn't seen. 

08:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was like a year later you went nuts, that was. 

08:04 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
That's such a funny clip, man well, yeah, that one in the, the ad for the danger witch is is 1a and 1b in my mind. For for us, which one? 

08:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
sorry, you don't remember the that's right danger witch, that one was well yeah yeah, no, I, I, I do remember you guys talking about. I thought you were saying like, like another one russ. If you, obviously it's the broncos nation yeah that's right, let's ride, let's ride, all right. 

08:30
So, um, we we've chatted before. I know you haven't talked about it much on uh, on your twitter, but, um, you have like a different, you're not, you're not doing this full-time, wanting to give you the opportunity to tell your story, like your personal story, background, whatever, and then kind of transition into betting yeah, totally. 

08:48 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
I mean, I think my background's pretty familiar. You know, I was always like the kid in high school that would organize the march madness bracket and stuff like that, collect the money, and you know, obviously I won a couple of those. You know, maybe 30-person pools. I won two of them. So that was when I was like, okay, maybe I actually know how to pick sports and stuff, and I think that's pretty similar to all of us. I think all of us probably started winning something at some point and if we had probably lost that, we might not be here. 

09:20
And as I got to the end of high school, early college, I think, I discovered Ken Palm's college basketball ratings, kind of this is like 2008, 2009, probably before it got mainstream. And that was an interesting moment for me because I realized, wait, like the way that the mainstream media tries to tell you who's good at college basketball is, like, really not correct. And there's the students with his computer in a basement who actually, like, might be better at this than you know the coach's poll, which was, um, now we sort of take this for granted, but back in the day that was not necessarily a known thing that you know, the coach's poll is very wrong and this guy's ratings are actually like very right, um, and so that was like the first moment that I realized, okay, maybe there's just you know kind of a way to be better at picking sports by using, you know, a little bit more data. Um, so then I turned 21, went to Vegas for the first time, tried to um, was really excited about on you know, like place my first sports right, cause I never actually had bet on sports, I was just using this for contests and bracket contests and stuff. 

10:19
So I tried to use Mr Ken Ponds rating to beat you know Vegas sports books with some very mixed results, and realize, okay, maybe it's not actually that easy to just take an off the shelf uh power rating and be, uh, maybe the sports books have also thought about this um, not using the coach's pole or the seeds of the tournament to actually line the games. Um, and so you know, after that, uh, you know, I realized I kind of had to think about this differently. Um, and that's sort of when I realized, you know, discovered my first odd screen. I think I was using the, like the sports insights free odd screen back in the day, if people remember what that was shout out to dan fabrizio, co-owner of unabated now. 

10:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But yeah, that was the. That was like the cheaper. It was a little bit of a delayed screen, but I mean it did. It did the trick if you didn't need to bet in real time. 

11:03 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Oh yeah, for the year, like 2013, 2014,. I think it was totally fine and really it was more of an educational thing for me because I hadn't even thought I mean, I'd spent so much time thinking about how to rate the teams that I hadn't really thought about this whole market that exists for sports betting, and so I would like watch the screen and realize you know these lines for college basketball, college football. That that's why I was interested in at the time. Um, he's actually like, move a decent amount from when they open to when they close. And um, that was sort of my second aha moment, realizing, well, hang on, like, if they move, one of two things has to be true the. Either the closing number is efficient, therefore you can win by getting a number. That's not that, or the closing number isn't efficient and you can just beat it like one of those two things has to be true, right, and and that like before that I had been like maybe sports bet, you know, maybe this is like a, maybe people are right, right, this is not beatable, this is just gambling. You know, this is throwing your money away. I think, when I realized that it was really like a hang on, like, like this has to be beatable in one of these two ways. Um, and that was sort of when it took off for me. So you know that was around like 20,. 

12:13
You know, probably eight years ago um had a bunch of really good college football seasons. Just by sitting at the odd screen I was, I was basically flew steam chasing. At the time I didn't know it was called that, but you know I noticed like, oh hey, this book moves early and then I get a number and then it closes at a number better than I got, and now I'm winning money like this is like I didn't even know what clv was or what steam chasing was. I just would explain it to people like, yeah, I bet here when I see that move. And then I had the number of changes and like all the stuff right. Um, so I actually had like three or four really really great seasons. 

12:42
Um, just kind of doing that. I think the edges dried up a bit, um after um. And you know, really everything I've done to this point has been sort of a derivation of, you know, under trying to understand the market, trying to understand how to get the best number, um, and then in markets where the clothes isn't efficient. Um, maybe try to sprinkle in a little origination, you know, and beat them, and I've basically just been doing that for the last six years, had a bit of a downswing during COVID, but then, once sports betting was legalized in my state this year, you know a lot more outs, a lot more options, and obviously that's when I really started thinking about how to keep those accounts open and be able to do this for as long as possible, which'm you know, I'm sure we'll get into a bunch, um, so, yeah, that's that's sort of the background. 

13:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You haven't done this for about 10 years, part-time probably, um, and yeah out of curiosity, um, because you seem to, you know, have found and found that the uh, beating the clothes is pretty valuable early on in your betting journey. Do you actually remember how that came about at all? Was it like a piece of you know a book that you read anything? Because, like, the only reason I mentioned that is that it's really weird that someone would find that very quickly in their journey. Most bettors actually will never even realize that in their entire life they just go about betting and betting their opinions. For you to catch on to that and being like, well, yeah, you know, I can get a better number here, that's kind of like way ahead of its time. So I'm just curious. I mean, it might have just been, you know, you're a smart guy and you figured it out. 

14:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You think it was sheer luck, because I know there's quite a few people who just kind of discover this like without actually it being told to them whatever, and oftentimes every story I've heard it just happened by pure luck. Where they're like I wanted to bet and then I went to go better at this price, but then, for whatever reason, my buddy bet the same thing and I saw he had a sports book that had way better, and I'm like, wait, we could both bet the opposites and make some money, and then that's how it kind of clicks. So how was it for you? 

14:40 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, I think part luck, part skill probably so. I think part luck, part skill probably so. I think maybe the you know I majored back in school. I majored in econ with a finance concentration. I kind of like understand markets in a way. So I think I was a little bit biased towards looking at it as a market with moving prices. So that probably helped me like intuitively understand it a little quicker. 

14:59
But I actually do remember a conversation I had just like around the office where somebody was like we were just talking about betting in general and somebody was like, oh, don't different sports books have different prices? Like, is it ever profitable to pick off a price where it's like this at one book and that at another one? And I was like, oh, I never really thought about that. I think that's sort of how I found the odd screen, kind of by accident. I was like, oh, I wonder if there's a place to look at like where prices are. And that's it kind of snowballed from there right. Like I think I was already intuitively able to think about it that way. But kind of finding that first on screen and then staring at it and then being like, oh, this might be how it works was a little you know happenstance probably. 

15:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, everyone's journey is pretty hilarious. I remember back yeah, I mean, you're talking about this being like eight years ago. Around that time and this is just a personal story I had a good friend that used to bet against all of the line moves because he believed that the sportsbooks had some superior knowledge and when they sent out the openers, that that's what the number of the game should be. 

15:56
So he would find the biggest differences from the opener to whatever the current line was, and you know he's I don't think he's figured it out still in life at this point. You know, lucky for you you were able to figure that out pretty quickly. But I'm curious, like you've been doing this now for for a while. In the sports betting game, you say that you're you're employed and you know you treat this as a secondary hobby, I guess, so to speak. But what's the grand plan for you like? Would you like this to replace? Would you like sports betting to replace your uh occupation at some point, or are you just content with this being kind of like a side venture for you? 

16:32 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
yeah, I mean very, very content for now. I mean, you know I'm not going to get into my my full-time thing too much, but that's, that's a great um career and a great thing that I have going. So there's there's no immediate plans, um, but what I do like thinking about at the moment is like what it would take to get to that next step of the journey. I sort of, now that I've been doing this for a few years, I sort of have this wisdom to look back and kind of think about it in almost like three phases, and this is like what I would tell any aspiring sports. Better to think like like phase one is just learn how to win, like any, just figure out any way to win like at all like steam, whatever originating small market steam chase, whatever you want to do um, figure out how to win phase two and I would sort of put myself in maybe like the late phase two category. 

17:18
Okay, now you're winning, now you sort of have to figure out um how to maximize your uv, really retain your bankroll, keep your accounts open, like kind of all this stuff that comes with. Like the winning is sort of the fact that you know how to win is sort of a given at that point. And now it's about maximizing your time. Right, I only have two hours a day to do this. How do I maximize that? Phase three, which I'm not at, I would say, is how do you scale this as a business Like, okay, now you like really need outs, you really need to not have, you know, a single book shutting you down actually affect, um, your, you know, your, year, year over year profitability. You probably need partnerships, you probably need sort of other stuff, and so, um, I'm certainly thinking about that stuff right now, not not as much actively, you know, taking all the steps required to get there, but I enjoy thinking about it and, you know, possibly down the road, it's definitely something that I'll take more seriously. 

18:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
When did your first limiting come? How far after, like you started? 

18:21 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Probably I got shut down by Bovada, probably like 2014, 2015 or something. I hit um bunch of Superbowl props and then I had a great, great March of Madness, fortunately, got most of the money out, but all of a sudden, you know, the account was, uh, flagged or something. You know some reason for being suspicious. I got another, um different, like offshore. A couple years later I suddenly couldn't get, you know, my money and I'm actually not sure if that was as much limiting as there's your standard offshore can't get your money out, shenanigans, um, but it was suspiciously after I had started, you know, winning a bunch of money on them too, um. 

18:59
So, yeah, you know, I've been dealing with this for, you know, since 2015 probably, and and I think that kind of prepared me for when the legals launched this year in my state, I was kind of ready, right. I was kind of like, okay, I know this can happen. So now I've got to make sure to really make a plan. I think the very first thread I posted on Twitter was basically the best thing you can do and I'm sorry if this isn't actual advice at the moment, because you would have had to already do this. But, you know, make a plan right sports betting lost in your state like day one, you know. Make a plan on what to do, which accounts you want to keep open, which ones you're fine to just blow through, you know, just like. Really think about it and try to um, try to start from there all right. 

19:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, I want to get into the. I definitely want to have a larger conversation around the limiting component of things we had. We had shipped the justice on who was a former points bet trader earlier and he kind of shared some of the secrets, specifically of how that book would limit players. Before we do, just out of curiosity, you talked about the edges diminishing over time with what you were doing originally. So where does the edge exist now? Have you just expanded into, like other markets? Is it just because there's more bet options available? What's going on for you now? 

20:13 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, absolutely. That's a great question. I think the more betting options available really helps. I guess maybe I'll break it down into sort of three. My profit comes from three distinct things, if I had to chunk it up. So one is still sort of the um, you know, top down. I think we will debate whether to call it top down or steam chasing, but we kind of all know what we're talking about, Right. 

20:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We understand whether or not you're a top down. Better Right, exactly yeah. 

20:40 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Well, it's part of my strategy and, honestly, you can call it whatever derogatory name you want. It makes me money, so I really care. You know it's fine? 

20:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
um, yeah, but it's not derogatory at this point, like exactly. 

20:51 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
It's just, it is what it is right. So you know fine, markets where there's a clear market leader, there's a clear market lagger. You know fine that that still exists right. There are few, you know, they're fewer than there were probably 10 years ago, but that still exists. Um the other two, so I'd say that's probably like, uh, maybe like a third of my activity. 

21:11
Um, the one that's been growing the most, I think, is not like it's still a top down strategy, but it's a little bit more find books that are actually sharp in individual markets. Um, that you know might not be obviously sharp. So there's sort of all the standard sharp books we talk about, but there are other books that are not on the first page of your screen or known about as well. Or there are some big rep books that I have noticed happen to be sharp in one to two things. Maybe they have a big customer there who tends to trade that market and they let them do it just to get the information. You know I'm not in the room so I don't know, but what I do know is is tracking this for a couple of years, um, there's a couple of markets that I think I can be um just by sort of following a leader. 

22:03
That might not be very obvious Um and that's become a bigger part of my strategy. That's best probably 30 to 40% Um at this point is a couple of different markets that look like that. So still a little bit top down Um and then the smallest part, probably 15 to 20% of what I do is originating Um. That is very variable. I think that really sort of depends on the time. I find that originating a lot easier towards the start of the season or kind of when things are a little bit more uncertain. There are bigger edges there. But you know, that's the sort of thing that it's not a because I am still part-time. It's not a major priority for me to really go deep and specialize. I think if I were to be full-time that would be the thing that I would probably focus on getting up to more like 40 to 50% of my activity. 

22:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On the second one that you pointed out there, about finding books that may not be known as a sharp book, that might be in a specific market. I'm not asking you to give away like you've put in the work that's yours, but a lot of people ask this to us. It comes up in the Q and A's right how did you go about doing that? Like, what was your process? Was it manually just tracking the closers at all these? Um, if you could just walk us through that, if you're comfortable with it. 

23:18 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, so I'll tell you how it starts. Uh, which is? You find what you think is a stale line at some stupid book. You bet it and then you lose a ton of money and realize like wait a second, this might not be a sale line at a rec book, this, this might be something else. Um, and obviously the sample size is small, like you don't know if you're getting really unlucky or running bad or, but you know, after some point, um, you kind of noticed that and you're like all right, let me try to track this um a little bit more. Let me grab my screen log a bunch of closing numbers, kind of see where the thing ends up. 

23:52
Back test if I would have hit this at a different place, would I have gotten CLV? Does the number tend to move towards that thing? There's a lot of different ways to do it, but I would say it does always start like that. I think it's really get your screen right. Look at get your screen right. Look at, click through a bunch of the different markets, notice when one book tends to be consistently off market and something probably not major. Right? We're not talking NFL sides here, right? We're talking college football, first half maybe, or you know something like that, um, and just just notice, just it's just when a book that isn't a sharp book is just consistently different. It's interesting, like you would do well as a better to notice that and try to kind of follow that thread and figure out where that's going. 

24:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I'm going to give a shameless plug to Betstamp right now because, just for this exact reason, everything you just said really hits home with me, because I think that's a lot of the valuable lessons I've learned in life as well. It's just like, yeah, this book constantly has an off-market price and you go and bet college basketball props at a specific book, which I won't name, got absolutely murdered betting those thinking that they were the off-market number when in reality they were the better number. You learn through bet tracking. I mean, you might just learn by doing this over and over and through experience. 

25:11
If you track every single one of your bets and you're able to analyze all of these, it's very easy for you to pick up which books I'm winning at and I'm losing at. Your account balance will tell you that as well, but also specifically what bet types you're losing on at that book. So I think that's very important for everyone out there. I mean, I'm not to each their own, do what you want to do. It's a little bit of an added step, but I think you learn a lot from bet tracking generally speaking, and if you're going to go about this route of betting, I think that's a really good way to go about it and, by the way, for those, so obviously Rob plugged BetSamp, which is our platform. 

25:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But for you guys at home who are actually looking to track, but for you guys at home who are actually looking to track, people often sometimes track the wrong things. So tracking, like your clv and all that, it's great, but for a lot of markets, the the main things need to track before even clv. Clv is great, you need that as well, but the main things you want to track before anything is all of your bets. You want a few different things. You want by book is all of your bets. You want a few different things. You want by book, by bet type, by sport. Those three things are crucial, crucial. So you need to be able to filter by book, sport and bet type Within BetStamp. If you track all your bets, you get those three which are the key three, plus, honestly, hundreds of other slicers and filters. You can, like you know, best odds, clv, all that stuff, roi, roi wins. You can go by just any variant of those. So use bet stand for sure. It's way easier than excel. 

26:35
The hard part is actually tracking the bets on the app. Obviously it's. It's a lot easier sometimes to like just type it on or like write it in your phone notepad, but you don't get the benefit. So oftentimes, like, if I can it up, put in the work for a bit, make sure it's all in there and then you're going to make money off of that, uh, in the longterm. Another plug here if anyone's interested in like having a way to write your bets in Excel and then upload them to bet stamp, it's something we're working on If we can get enough, um, basically, if we can get enough interest. So, uh, I know it's a little plug, but if you have it right there, send me a note, send the Twitter account, comment on the YouTube. If that's something you'd use, we can build that in Great. 

27:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You mentioned, Mr Limited, that you're facing many limitations from sports books right now. Let's elaborate on that a little bit. What are the exact challenges you're facing right now? How widespread is it? How quick is it happening to you at specific books? Basically, what is the current state of the limiting that's going on? 

27:40 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, definitely not going to name any book names here, but there's probably, I don't know, like eight or nine legals than the state right now. Uh, what I will say is what sort of the plan that I made before this all even launched, um, I am still active and and on, mr Unlimited, on, uh, most of the bigger ones, which is good. About half of the small guys, um, you know, basically cut off on um, which which is actually sort of all on plan. I mean, I, I, you know, I think the content that I've written is hopefully going to be helpful to people, because I have been doing it myself and it's basically allowed me to um, be, you know, profitable at at some of these larger books, um, but still, you know, maintain a healthy account relationship. 

28:29
Uh, some of the smaller ones where I am a bit more aggressive, I mean, let's be honest, like some of these smaller ones, we don't know if they're gonna be around in two years. I don't think there's a ton of EV gained by trying to keep your account open on a book that can be shut down, you know, and by 2025, um, I would just go take the money, and that's what I did on some of the smaller ones. Just make the money, deal with the limitation totally fine. Hopefully another one pops up in a year that you can do the same thing on. But with those market leaders, with those bigger ones, with those bigger legals, I would probably recommend being cautious and deploying some pretty heavily guarded strategies against those books. So for me, you know I'm not in a horrible spot right now. I'm still got a lot of main accounts open. I don't think that'll, that'll obviously won't last forever, but you know, at this point still doing pretty well. 

29:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, let's get into some of these specifics then. I just want to inform the audience out there. These are obviously Mr Limited's personal experiences here. It's not going to be, you know, set in stone that doing something is going to get your you know limits up forever or keep you, you know, unlimited. I laugh every time I'm bossing Unlimited, unlimited. At this point, let's start with the first original deposit into a sports book. Uh, you're putting money in. You're often offered a bonus up front or you have some sort of free play that you can use. In your experience, uh, is it worth it to maximize these bonuses in the early going? Uh, or is it better off to, you know, kind of play dumb in the beginning? 

30:06 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
yeah, good question, and I'm just going to repeat your same caveat, which is of play dumb in the beginning. Yeah, good question. And I'm just going to repeat your same caveat, which is I'm not in the trading room. I don't, you know, this stuff has worked for me, but this, this is largely an unknowable problem, right? We don't, you know, and we're never going to have perfect information on exactly how what algorithms are using or how the team operates. So, um, obviously, everything past this falls under that disclaimer. But yeah, you know, I thought it was great when you guys had the shipper on the show, because I'd already sort of thought about some of this stuff before I listened to that interview and it was some great sort of confirmation I'd noticed pretty early on. 

30:42
I was very skeptical of some of these early bonuses. In fact, if a lot of how I try to approach these things are thinking like the sports book or thinking like the trading team, which I think is very important as you go through this exercise, if I were running a trading team, if I were running a sports book, like what would I do? And I think one of the things I probably would do is set up, you know, a pretty obvious funnel over the first two weeks to try to judge a customer right, because really the only way you're going to get I mean, you're probably going to win money as a sports book, you have an incredible advantage over everybody out there. You get plus one town on every side. It's pretty good rackets to be in If you can get it. Um, the only way you lose money is if you let a bunch of really smart people create a bunch of accounts and continuously, you know, blast away on stuff that you've mispriced. So you know, the moment your account's created, right, the book is going to be skeptical of you, um, and they're going to want to try to figure out as quickly as possible what is actually going on here. Are you just like a normal person or are you like a beard for a syndicate, or are you a sharp guy like what? Like what's happening? Um, and the, the promos are sort of an ingenious way to do that. 

31:46
If you do nothing other than deposit the minimum required, bet exactly the minimum required, then use the bonus bet on something that's very long odds and relatively plus EV, because it's a free roll, that will make the book, I think, pretty skeptical of you very initially. I mean, the mathematically correct way to do this, in my opinion, would be what I just said you bet the absolute minimum amount and then, with your bonus bet, when your risk goes to zero, um, you know, you probably find something with the longest odds you can tolerate that is still has a reasonable chance of having ev legs in it. That's, I think, mathematically optimal. So my advice to you, if you don't want to get limited, is don't do that. Instead, what a recreational player probably does in that situation is Actually, yeah, I think the biggest difference between how a rec and a sharp is going to view a bonus bet is a sharp player is going to be like this is awesome, my risk is zero. 

32:44
That means my, you know, the expected. I can take like my biggest shot ever right now, cause there's no risk. I mean, there's just the math, right. Um, whereas a rec is going to be like that, bonus bets mine, like I want it. I want to bet it on something where I can kind of cash the money out, right, so they're probably going to put it on something, even money, maybe even a slight favorite. You know I have a hundred dollar bonus, but I want to get at least like 80 out of this, you know, because that's, that's what I want. So I would recommend I mean, everything that I recommend is really, let's kind of try to look a little more recreational here, folks. After all, this is allegedly an entertainment business, right, this is for recreation. That's the customer they want. So that would be. My first thing is what? That very first deposit bonus? Just just think about. Think about what a rec would do and do that. Do you put any thought into the original deposit amount? First deposit bonus just just think about. 

33:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Think about what a wreck would do, and do that? Do you put any thought into the original deposit amount? 

33:33 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
not really. I mean, I think you do want it to be, so actually I guess I'll, uh, maybe. How I'll answer this is is one thing I did on one of the larger legals, which is, if you can do it, if you have the bankroll to do this, try to see if you can get into the VIP program or at least evaluated for the VIP program in a book. It's probably like you probably have to do a little bit of networking and find the right person to make contact, but typically they'll give you like a couple-week evaluation period of you know whether or not your play warrants that. The great thing about that is week evaluation period of you know whether or not your play warrants that. 

34:11
The great thing about that is that evaluation period doubles as your perfect like account grooming length period anyway as to what you'd be betting. So you get a little two for one there, in the sense that you probably want to be betting daily volume on a bunch of random stuff anyway, which will hopefully both get you into VIP and also get you flagged, as you know. All right, this is just a normal person um in the system. So for that, I mean, I think it is helpful to, like you know, at least try to deposit a couple thousand and try to basically say, hey, you know, I want to move my play to this book and you know, do all that stuff. I think, um, that's a, that's a good way to start an account. 

34:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right. Um, in terms of the account grooming that you're talking about, there's plenty of things that we've heard over the years of, specifically whether that's playing more parlays, you know, avoiding certain bet types that are considered a little bit more sharp, the timing of your bets. For you, what are some specific strategies that you use to prolong the length of a sports betting account? 

35:09 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
that you use to prolong the length of a sports betting account. Yeah, so again, I mean, I think really trying to think like the book and look like a rec is very important, so the not-to-dos are a bit easier. Obviously, don't just sign up for an account and bet a bunch of Steam Chase stuff. That's going to get CLV. Don't bet college basketball over of steam chase stuff. That's going to get clv. Don't, you know, bet college basketball overnights or things that literally only professional players are betting rex. Do not bet these things. Um, so, you know, be very careful on that kind of stuff. 

35:38
Uh, well, you know, my goal is always basically finding breakeven bets. Um, when I'm trying to to do an account, so that can be a number that's maybe half a point off, but you're betting it relatively close to game time. It's pretty good for that. Um, a parlay of two solid legs that are, you know, maybe each a little bit plus ev or breaking on their own, is pretty good. Um, and the most important thing is just do that daily. 

36:00
I mean, what does a recreational player do like? What they don't do is log on to the app for five seconds, hit a stale line and then log off. That's not what a rep does, don't do that. But you know, log onto the remember these apps like they track everything you're doing. I mean, that's a. That's kind of the third dimension of this, um. So you know, log on, click through the markets, find something. Find something you like that it find another thing you'll like that it log on three hours later before the game start. Find something else you like. You know, it's like there's a whole sort of art form here of you know what would a person who just made their first deposit and is super excited to bet on sports do? Do that? Just make sure the things you're betting aren't actually that minus EV. You know, make sure they're, you know, at least decent or break even. I will say break even is the goal for those. 

36:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you ever at all intentionally mix in stuff that is minus EV? One example might be a lot of books nowadays will just recommend a parlay in your bet slip as soon as you put a bet in there, or there's preset parlays on the home screen. There could be bet boosts that are actually boosted, but still very much minus EV as well. Do you intentionally mix that stuff in at all? Do you think that's worthwhile? Um, I I've heard very differing opinions on this, and and to each their own. Everyone's gonna, you know, have their own experiences, but in your experience, uh, is this something that you do? 

37:21 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
yeah, for sure I will. I will say I usually only do this when I'm, when I've just won a lot of money. So if I'm on my huge heater, um, absolutely, uh, totally fine to throw in a couple negative ev things. Just make sure you track them and you know you're not actually giving too much money back. Um, but I I remember I was like up I was up so much one week over the summer and I was going um to a red sox game and I was with my friends. I was like, all right, man, I need to cool this account off. Like what we got. And somebody was like, oh, you should parlay Devers to hit a home run but the Blue Jays to win, or something like that, like something ridiculous. 

37:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And I did it and of course it happened. 

38:01 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Of course it hit, obviously. And I'm just sitting there being like what is happening and so, yeah, you know stuff like that where it's like you got to be careful about this. But I mean, remember at the end of the day, like I am also trying to have fun, I also do like gambling. If you were able to sort of mentally say, all right, I need to cool this account off a bit. I'm going to a game. Part of my enjoyment of this game is going to be betting on something that might be a very you know good time to mix in something negative. Ev. Just be very careful about it, because obviously, if you think that way too often, then you're just going to be punting money. Um, anyway. So it's a little, you know it's a dangerous game, but but you can play it that's the old positive ev, negative ev play yes, exactly exactly the old uh. 

38:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
First five innings one team, but full game the other team. 

38:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
First five innings one team in the over full game, other team in the end. 

38:54 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
There you go. 

38:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh man, that's how you throw them off the scent right there. 

39:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's the lay with Luke special yes. 

39:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Exactly. Yes, okay, you talked about it a little bit with some books. Yeah, they're probably not going gonna be in business in a year. Take them for what they're worth. How do you balance maximizing your edge versus keeping an account alive? This is also a question we get a lot right. It's like I have a massive edge on this one particular sports book. They constantly misprice X market, do you like? Go balls to the wall on that, or is it, you know, slow bleed type of situation Again for people out there? This is Mr Limited's opinion. I don't know that there's a right or wrong answer, but go for it. 

39:41 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, and I think I don't know whether there's a right or wrong answer either. I think there's a lot more math to do on that and I do want to prioritize doing that in the future at some point, sort of finding the okay, here's actually a real consistent edge you have and what's the actual optimal amount to take advantage of that. Of course, the problem is you don't have perfect information on the other side. You have no idea how long it's going to take you to get limited. It could be two days, could be two months. So without that information it's hard to actually calculate what the optimal strategy is. You just have to take a guess. 

40:16
I personally usually veer on the side of keeping the account open longer. My thought process is simply um, limiting is pretty much permanent. You can't really come back from it, but I can always make more money in the future. So, in general, uh, if I am biased towards keeping the account open for a bit longer, um, that totally depends on the book. If it's a book that, again, we don't think it's going to be around, just take it, just hit it as hard as you can. 

40:42
If it's a book that you do want a long-term account on, I would say probably try to parlay that stuff as much as you can, at least which tends to be viewed more favorably in my opinion and again, always take stock of where your account's at. If you have had a bad couple weeks, you're probably okay to hit it a bit more. If you are on a major heater, be careful. It's stupid. We know as better that there are ups and downs and whether or not you're actually winning or losing money in a given month is not even the best predictor of how well you're doing. But honestly, the books I mean, at the end of the day, some flag is going to trip if you're up, you know a certain amount of money. That's just how it is. So you know. You just got to be, you just got to always be cognizant of where you're at. You know on each book, and that that's kind of how I do it. 

41:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's various forms of limitation. It's not just apples to apples. There's the limited to one dollar type of situation. There's the limited to $1 type of situation. There's the limited to maybe $150 type of situation that tends to happen on some accounts. Curious, when you do get the latter, where it's limited to something that okay, it's still a bet maybe not your traditional bet size, but you can get something down do you actually still bet into the account when you are limited or do you just choose at that point to not give the sports? 

42:07 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
book the information? That's a great question and I also have gone back and forth a bit. My current strategy for that is well one overall strategy is I actually try to never bet the exact max. So I never try to hit it for the two of the dollar max that they are limiting me to, ever try to hit it for the two of the dollar max that they are limiting me to. 

42:31
Just given that in my experience, the earliest books I got limited on were the ones that I was really stretching, like really actually hitting things for limits, and when I sort of started backing off and hitting it for 20 bucks below the limit, suddenly it seemed a little bit friendlier, right. So that's actually one thing that I would recommend If you do have a hard and fast limit, just do a little less. And then the second thing is I usually just try to back off a lot on that book. I might give them a little bit of action, but I've noticed that just backing off quite a lot usually doesn't make it any worse. Occasionally it makes some other markets better. 

43:05
I mean, I actually had one book where I was limited to like 50 on college basketball totals, but um didn't give many action for a while backed off, um, and I was able to get, you know, a couple hundred down on a different market, um, just just the other week. So you know, it can, it can, um, it's. It's kind of pretty, you're right, 's not apples to apples? It's unclear how this all works, right, it's uh. 

43:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I would just say, back off, don't hit the limits, um, you know, just just cool them off I go, I go back and forth on this one, because part of me wants to stick it to the sports book regardless. 

43:37
But in the grand scheme of things, like a hundred dollar bet, is not sticking it to anyone and and and candidly, now that I think about it even more like placing a hundred dollar bet at a book that's going to move off of that action or you're giving them the info is like directly taking potentially thousands out of someone else's pocket that could have stuck it to them as well. So I've kind of really changed my stance you're out, you're out. 

43:59
Um, like I used to take pride in referring a million bets to trader just because I wanted that guy to sweat and work. But then I realized, like he's probably just laughing it up over there. He's like, yeah, keep referring them to me, I'll keep spotting all these bad lines and moving them, and then nobody else is going to get down bigger bets on fresh accounts on them. What's the point? Yep. 

44:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No totally true, totally agree. 

44:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Not even for, not even for me, but for the ecosystem. I don't do that anymore. This one's a little bit. This one's unrelated to the like, limiting itself, but more of a general overarching philosophical question. I guess not even philosophical, but I'm just curious your general overall thoughts on sportsbooks being able to offer different limits to different bettors? Because this doesn't really exist. There's, I mean, few case examples of this existing in other industries, but for the most part you go into a store, something's priced the way it is, everybody's paying the same price, it's not. Somebody has to pay a little bit more or whatever. That's more to do with odds than it is limits itself. But what are your general overall thoughts on the ability for sportsbooks to be able to do that? 

45:05 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, this might surprise some people, given where I'm at and what sort of content I tend to write, but I actually I'm not super bent out of shape about it. I'm kind of an it is what it is person. I understand the business. It's annoying and it sucks. I see why they do it. 

45:29
um and honestly, you know it like, of course you can get bent out of shape about the entitlement of like, well, you want to run a sports book, but you don't actually want to set the right lines, you just want to kick people out, all right, whatever. Um, like, you know, I get it, I get why people do what they do. It's legal, you're not gonna be able to do anything about, so I just don't spend a ton of time getting bent out of shape about it. I think actually, the weird part is on the other side. To me, when they're able to offer $2 million, a whack at NFL sides for a VIP or celebrity who wants to sign up for the book, that is a little weird, because the limiting the sharp betts like this is understood as kind of okay by gaming commission rules or in both states or whatever. 

46:10
Um, what's not okay? Well, the regulators really also are trying to protect us. Problem gambling though. It's just. It's just interesting. They're allowed to offer people to bet two million dollars who are probably losing a lot of money and nobody really says anything about it like that. To me, I would be more worried as a sportsbook operator about that side of it than a bunch of uh, bunch of sharps on twitter whining that their accounts are getting limited. You know, whatever it's gonna happen, yeah, good point. 

46:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean it's valid. We we saw a case in ontario recently, within the last few months, where a sportsbook operator got fined a pretty heavy amount of dollars. I mean, maybe in the grand scheme of things not so much, but for allowing um a vip to continue betting, even though they exhibited signs of of problem gaming. So it's not that they turn a blind eye completely, but I do get the point that, yeah, you know you show a propensity to lose and all of a sudden you can bet as much as you want I think that's the weird side of it, right, the the limiting me side wouldn't be as weird if that didn't exist, right, and I think that's the. 

47:14
That's maybe where it's okay to to get a little bit out of shape have you considered making any adjustments or changes to your style of betting to kind of offset this? So, uh, just as an example potentially. But you talked about the three things, core things for you. The last one was origination, which you said I think was 15 to 20% of your overall action. Any thought at like maybe starting to move a little bit more into the origination side of things instead of the top down, in order to prolong your accounts? 

47:44 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, I mean I think you have to I think that was one of the top down in order to prolong your accounts? Yeah, I mean, I think you have to. I think that was one of the most recent things that I read about is, at the end of the day, not all money won from the sports book is going to be viewed equally in their eyes. Right, if you win a bunch on Steam that you get CLB on, you're going to be limited much quicker than if you win on stuff that nobody else is seeing or betting or figuring it out, because at the end of the day, they just don't have as good of a model to understand if you're actually profitable that stuff. Right, if I make, if I open an account and I make 10 bets and they're all college basketball overnights and they all move five points in my favor, um, pretty much at that point you can determine that I'm probably somebody who should be limited. 

48:27
Whether or not even I might go four and six doesn't really matter, like it's. 

48:29
Like you need basically a sample size of like 10 or 15 to decide. Okay, I'm probably like, not the customer you want, um, whereas if I make 15 straight bets on various early season. Uh, player props that don't really move, a ton of clothes or other stuff like that, and I go, you know eight and six, I mean, I mean you have no idea if I'm winning or not, right, and then there's not a huge influx of betting action on these and maybe even some people are on the other side of them and other stuff like that. Like, I mean, as a trading team, you're totally blind, like you don't know if that's good or not. Um, so that's just an example to give to basically say, at the end of the day, the more you can originate and the more you can have your action, be your action and not chasing somebody else's. Um, that's just the sort of longer term way. Um, actually, you know, really win it this long term and keep those accounts healthy as a successful sports better yourself. 

49:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What advice would you give to someone who's trying to do what you're doing maybe not necessarily make a living from sports betting, but someone who you know has a job and they want this to be like a sustainable secondary for a form of income for them? And, um, I ask you that because, obviously, the current landscape is not that conducive to being able to win a ton of money. So, as someone in your situation right now, what's that piece of advice that you would give to someone who's looking to replicate that? 

49:38 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Um, yeah, I mean again, I think, uh, mixing in different types of, actually, at the end of the day, you just got to spend more time, right? This is all. This is All this is is one grand sort of reason why doing this successfully simply takes more time. You can't just, you know, fire up an out screen for 30 minutes, pick off a bunch of stuff and expect your action to be welcome at that book. For, you know, for infinity, you either need to put time into originating some of your own stuff. You either need to put more time into calculating you know kind of how you can make break even ish bets that keep your accounts open. It's just it. Basically, they're just trying to make it more annoying for people like me to, you know, be able to make a side income on this, and the only way to counteract that is just to really manage your time effectively. 

50:26
Um, one quote that I, you know I've talked to a few people who say like all right, yeah, but you know I don't really have time to, you know, do x, y and z. And one quote that I think is important that I wanted, wanted to make sure to share, which is I learned this about like two years ago, somebody told me I never say I don't have time for something. I always say I'm not prioritizing that right now, and I think that's really important to note because, um, it's not that you don't have time to originate stuff. You, you, you just it's just not a high priority for you. Or you know, if you're saying that and that, that's okay, I mean, if somebody has a job and a family and kids and all this stuff, those things should take priority and at the end of the day, maybe they don't actually, you know, have enough time left to originate. But if you're somebody like me, you don't have kids yet, you have a job, but it's you know, not you don't have to work all hours of the day for it. 

51:17
Saying I don't have time to originate is really not true. What, what? What is true is that you is that you're not prioritizing the time that it takes to originate. You may be prioritizing other things, like going out with your friends or playing video games or whatever, but I would just say to somebody in my position, if you actually do want to do this and want to make consistent income from this at some point, either origination, finding different edges that are harder to find calculating EV and figuring out how to mix in some cover plays to your accounts. Those unfortunately have to be priorities for you. Like, you do have to find time to do those things, or? 

51:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll add one more thing in at the end, or just really trying to scale, which some people can do. Well, right, like some people who are top down bettors, their, their edge will exist in perpetuity because they just constantly find ways to replenish accounts and work with people and they network. So there's a lot of different ways and I think that's a really interesting point. Right like I, I started with winning via origination and now I mix in some top-down stuff as well, but I still mostly win via origination and it's not, that's not going to be the means to an end for every single person, right, um, and it's not going to be a priority for every single person. 

52:31
Might be harder for someone to like. There's just going to be some people who are incapable of finding an edge, like nfl sides and totals, no matter how hard they work or how much time they put in on the originating side. So I think there's plenty of different ways to do it. But, yeah, the scaling thing is always interesting to me as well because, like I mean, let me just pose that to you right now as a question because you're suffering the limitation stuff across the board what's stopping you from reaching out and like networking and, like you, just want to remain on the down low rather than build a big operation. What's the reasoning for that? 

53:09 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, that's it for now. I want to do it selectively and not, you know, I don't using my own advice. It's not a priority for me at the moment to kind of rush into a bunch of different partnerships and sort of scaling that network while I still kind of have this, uh, you know, this full-time thing that's taking up a decent amount of time, because when I, if and when I do do that, I want to really do it thoughtfully, carefully. You know the right way and, um, I think that would be something that I would do when I, when I you know if and when I choose to go a bit more full-time, um, so that that's really the reason. 

53:42
Um, on the sort of PPH side, I have done a little bit of work there, um, you know, thoughtful work around finding, you know, some solid outs, uh, and I think that's that's something that anybody can do part-time. I mean, it doesn't, you know, it's pretty mixed bag over in that world, but, um, if you, if you find some people you trust, uh, you'll be able to get down and again, like we're not talking, I mean, if you're doing this part-time, you know, if you have a couple outs, you know, even if some of them are limited to, as you said, 200 bucks. Um, the cumulative amount you can get down on a play is going to probably be perfectly fine for you to be able to make a solid side income on this. Um, I know that's brought up sometimes but like, if're not a pro, those five hundred thousand dollar early week limits on college football like really not a problem if you have a couple of different places to get down on it. So yeah, that's kind of what I would say to that. 

54:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We thought we talked a lot about limits here. Basically just wanted to shout out there's one book that we know of, of at least, that doesn't limit. You get the same posted limits any player in the world. You sign up. If Rob can bet $20,000, that means you can bet $20,000 as well. There's absolutely no way you're going to be cut down. And that book is the sponsor of the show, pinnacle Sports. If you're in Ontario, if you're in Canada, use code HAMMER supports the show. We appreciate it. We talked a lot about limits and stuff like that. I think one thing we didn't mention is just the importance of having at least a few sports books that you can always play at and always be welcome at. 

55:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And people are and just even from a top-down perspective, talked about this a little bit before perspective talked about this a little bit before. People think that like, uh, pinnacle's the north star. You know they're using pit and we had. We talked about this with mr limited in this interview. Right, oftentimes people just assume that the book that is synonymous with being a sharp sports book is going to be like the north star. For all the top down stuff. I will say this there's lots of edges to be had at pinnacle as well. If you're betting pretty regularly, they're very good at pricing certain sports a little bit weaker at others. So don't let that deter you if you're using a top-down approach either, because there are edges to be had. 

55:53
One last thing I have to say before we get into our closing questions here. This is for the audience. I do a terrible job of this every single week in differentiating the legal sports books from offshore, from PPH. When I'm suggesting networking and getting other accounts, I am by no means suggesting that you go multi-account into legal sports books. That is violation of terms and service. You could get in a lot of trouble for that. So listen, you do you. You make your own decisions in life, but I want to advocate that I'm not recommending doing that Most of the time when I'm talking about getting multiple accounts. That's in the PPH world. So I just want to make that explicitly clear for anyone who's trying to follow advice. 

56:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right. One last thing about Pinnacle, by the way. I should have mentioned this before, but people ask me like, oh, if you bet Pinnacle, are they going to limit you? If you bet the Broncos and they're playing the Chiefs and then you bet back on the Chiefs after the line moves and you get a middle, no, they're okay with that, you're allowed to. If you hit something, the line moves, you want to hit the other side, you want to get a better position, whatever you want doesn't matter, they're not going to limit you for anything like that. It's a true, true sports book. 

57:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, a couple of questions that we end the show here with Mr Lambert. It doesn't have to be related to sports betting. 

57:09 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
It can be if you want to, totally up to you One thing that's plus EV in life and one thing that you think is minus EV in life. Yeah, I would say my plus EV thing. This has been helpful recently um, always like, make sure you have either close friends or family who do not care about gambling, who you can just talk to and hang out with. I think it's really, if you're doing this even part-time, full-time, whatever you know how it gets. You can, as much as we all try to say, oh I'm, I'm a pro at this, you know i't I don't get bent out of shape when I get a bad beat or anything like that. Let's, let's be honest, you know it can. 

57:48
It can be a bit of an emotional rollercoaster sometimes. Uh, the the healthiest and most helpful thing for me is having you know part of a friend group that, just like they know I bet, but like anything like that Um, massively plus EV in your life If you're able to. For some people this will be like your parents or something you know. If you have a good relationship and you know they probably don't know anything about betting and they're just happy to see you, you know it's just like whatever it is. Just remember that you have a lot of people around you who do not care about that bad beat you had on Sunday. 

58:20
Um, it really does not matter, uh, does not make you know, affect who you are as a person. So, um, and it also helps you keep grounded when you're on a hot streak, right, because it's very dangerous when you're winning a bunch to think that you're really good at this and no bet that you ever make is going to lose, and guess what? Those people are going to going to knock you back down and just remind you that you're the same person that you were before. You just won a bunch of money. 

58:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I like I like that piece. That is that used to be my dad, until he started watching every episode of Circles Off Now all he wants to talk about is bank, unfortunately. 

58:47 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Yeah, that's too bad. 

58:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
One of the most truest fans of the show. Rob P, rob Sr. We appreciate your support. I know you're going to comment below because you always do every single week. 

58:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're always one of the first listeners You'll find some hockey player from the 1970s that wore number 39 that he can put down into the comments. 

59:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And please never stop. We appreciate the support. All right, negative EV move of the week, you have one. 

59:11 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
Negative EV, you know this is. I didn't really didn't have much of a online presence or following until the second half of last year. So I learned, I relearned this lesson, but it is probably the most negative thing you can do is try to change people's minds on the internet. Do not do it. 

59:33
Might not be a worse use of your time in the entire world than do you know our brains, like as humans, our brains are not even wired to like have our minds be able to change. We change our mind. It has to be our idea, right? So there's no way that you're ever gonna, you know, log on Twitter and, you know, tell somebody something that'll be like oh, my God. Yeah, you're totally right, our brains don't work that way. 

59:53
And everything that I try to do now you know whether it's putting out content like all this, you know account, health stuff, and I'm trying to put, I put information out there and my goal is for you you as an independent person to kind of make up your own mind about how much of it you want to use, whether you think it's smart, whether you don't think it's smart. Maybe you find something in there and you actively sort of change your approach, but it's gotta come from you. It ain't gonna come from me. I ain't gonna change anybody's mind and I would highly recommend that nobody try to do that, because you are going to be very appreciative. 

01:00:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love these pieces of advice. That's a good one. Today, I will tell you that this receding hairline and the balding that's happening up here, this isn't a product of genetics. This is not not. No. Vincenzo rest in peace, passed away in his nineties with like great hair on my mother's side. The genetics are there. This is a product of arguing with people online. Yeah, don't. You will end up with hair like this if you argue with people online A couple of weeks ago. 

01:00:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Mike, it's fitting that this is your negative EV move of the week, but when we had on the gambling Frank Costanza, he mentioned like you got to be realistic in your goals and I had given out my plus tv move of the week, which was you can do anything you want and the only way you can't do it is if you say you can't do it. Had a bunch of people comment saying man, I needed to hear that. Thank you so much. Like they tell us too much in like schools today that we can't do it and we're not good at math, we're not good at these things. And then I had a bunch of comments of people like that's the most outrageous take. Like not everyone can do anything. Like I can't do this. And you know what the crazy part about it is. We're both right. You know why? Yeah, because if you say you can't do it, you can't, you're not going to do shit. Because you said you can't do it, you literally are not going to. Oh, I can't do this. No, shit, buddy, you're not. So the advice is not for you. Fuck out of here. Doesn't matter, advice is not for you. 

01:01:47
I got a plus TV move of the week, by the way. Okay, go for it. This one is a random ass one that I thought of last week. All right, plus TV. Move of the week. Park your car right in the middle of the spot, straight. All right Enough, straight. All right enough with these like people parking a little bit crooked and then or like a little bit off and they're trying to one, one like one, move it in. If you got to do a little bit of a two-way it's tight parking spot, all good. You park it right in the center. Now. Your door is not getting scratched. You're not scratching another guy's door, everybody else having a better time parking. The lines are there for a reason. 

01:02:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Park in the middle nothing worse than when, uh, someone parks too towards one side, a little bit too much in the open parking lot, then you got to take the spot next to them and you got to park a little bit too much to your side, then that car leaves you. Look like an absolute jackass. Yep, yep, yeah well the. 

01:02:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
the reason it's a plus tv move, though, is because you're putting your own car at risk as well, and then, when you're the guy whose car is a little bit over, people almost want to open it into your thing on purpose. 

01:02:52
Cross my mind, there you go. Cross my mind, there you go. Mr Limited, if you can go back, final question of the show if you can go back five years, just a short five years flies by. It's going to be gone. You're going to be in five years. We're going to be listening back to this in five years. Talk to a previous version of yourself. What advice can you give your former self? 

01:03:16 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
I mean, I kind of wish I had started doing a little bit of writing and thinking and talking more openly about just betting and journey and what I was thinking about at the time, cause I honestly, like, over the last six months, I feel like I've just gotten a lot smarter. I maybe I'm, you know, I'm somebody who writes to think in a way, so I think that's probably part of it. Um, but I would recommend, you know, especially today when it's so easy to you know, publish stuff on on Twitter, just kind of write and think about stuff. There's no downside to just writing your thoughts down, whether or not you even post them or not, just makes you smarter. I wish I'd done a little bit more of that. I think it was like a little bit more kind of in my own head. 

01:03:57
I, you know, I think this, this industry, you know, sports betting tends to attract cagey or personalities that you know are not going to share anything. We all got our edges over here and we're, you know, trying to hoard them. Um, and one thing that I'm really thankful about the last five years it does seem like there's obviously been an explosion of content. You know, things have really kicked up in that way and it just. It does seem like everybody's a little bit more more open, more willing to listen, more willing to share stuff. Um, but I would have. I would have told my younger self hey, just start now, and in all areas of life, not just in betting, just in everything. Start writing your thoughts down, come back to them. It just makes you smarter. So I wish I'd done more of that. 

01:04:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Very good advice. 

01:04:34 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
I agree. 

01:04:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sorry. So I was going to say some knowledge bombs dropped here today during the bulk of the episode and at the end. 

01:04:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Really appreciate how, you know, I don't like to compare, compare a guest's answers. 

01:04:54 - Mr. Limited (Guest)
But the, the combo of plus ev minus ev go back five years. Response here it's. It's up there as one of the best some bangers in my opinion. It's my personal opinion. I appreciate that I. I did go the more serious route. 

01:04:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know some people go the less serious route, so it'll never be like when when g stack was in studio with me and I he like he almost got me crying. He's like the most emotional plus evil. Oh yeah, I didn't even know how to respond and then I said something really stupid yeah, you followed it up with the most ridiculous one. I'm like I don't want to be the guy that follows. That's all the worst. Yeah, oh, that was tough. That was a tough one guys, everyone listening. 

01:05:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I hope you learned something today. If you did, and if you want to support the show, if you're not already subscribed, please do that. Please like the episode? Please leave a comment down below. Let me comment anything you want. Just even comment a period. It helps the show. We love you, guys and thanks for the support. And, by the way, if you want to get better, one thing you can do, which is super vital we mentioned on the show start tracking your bets. Go, download BetSam, sign up for an account. Just start even tracking for like a week a month. See your results. It's going to make it. It's not. Doesn't seem worth it in the day, like the day of yeah sure, you're not getting anything out of Once. That history is built up really is all the difference in the world and it's going to take you from X ROI to, you know, x plus Y ROI. 

01:06:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, if you want to follow our guest, mr Limited, you can do so on Twitter. Mr Limited, with two I's at the beginning L-I-I-M-I-T-E-D. Appreciate you, appreciate everyone out there. This has been Circles Off, episode 139. Thank you everyone for tuning in. We'll be back again next week. 

 

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