00:00 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
The industry has just completely changed. I don't think 20 years ago, billy Walters could have imagined that a person could figure out how to get 200,000 followers and affect the market and quite possibly not be a winner. Come on let's go. 

00:15 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 140,. Right here, part of the Hammer Betting Network powered by Pinnacle Sportsbook, rob Pizzola flying solo this week. Just to make me feel comfortable, we did put a dummy of Johnny in studio Exactly how he would be dressed Betstamp t-shirt, pinnacle hat looking sharp. He definitely wouldn't be wearing the headphones, though. 

00:40 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, not for this. 

00:41 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
No, no, no, he'd be really upset about the headphones. I don't know if that mic would be swiveled like that, but that's the best we could do to replicate him with what we were working with in studio today. Episode number 140. It's going to be a guest episode. I'm looking forward to this one quite a bit. But there's a lot of 40s, Zach. A lot of 40s in the hockey world. Zetterberg Z A lot of 40s in the hockey world. Zetterberg. Zetterberg was a 40, for sure, Tuca Rask was a 40. Oh yeah, I remember that, unfortunately a little bit too vividly. As a Leafs fan. I saw the All-Star game this weekend. Elias Pettersson Yep. 

01:24 - Zack Phillips (Other)
By the way, the NHL fixed the All-Star game. Look, I was pretty impressed with it. Now, mind you, I got an opportunity to actually like go and be a part of some of the stuff went to the draft on the thursday kind of stunk, but that that sucked they need to fix whatever that yeah that stunk, yeah, that was horrible but I was there I went to like some fan experience stuff, saw the players walking around and everything. 

01:44
Uh, it felt like there was was a positive vibe in the city. It felt like there was actual excitement for some of the events, some of the stuff that was happening. People were actually tuned in a little bit more. It felt like I thought this was a pretty good experience. But I think that part of that is obviously just from before it actually kind of sucked. So to have something that didn't suck totally probably just makes it feel a million times better than it actually kind of sucked. So to have something that didn't suck totally probably just makes it feel a million times better than it actually was. 

02:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Well, first and foremost, it was in the greatest city in North America, which is a huge help, not one of these dumpster cities. They've been doing it in recent years. 

02:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, or like some shitty like Montreal or something like that. 

02:26 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Other garbage trash. Canadian city yes, it was in Toronto, for starters. Who would have known that offering up a million dollar prize for the winner of the skills competition and a million dollar prize for the team win at the all-star game would have changed everything? But it did, except for Nikita Kucherov who decided like he just didn't give a shit, which. 

02:39 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I get. But also like, maybe smart idea to get the best player in the world to help you like design the skills course and come up with something that might be entertaining to do on the ice. Be like, oh, you're the best player at any of this stuff. Like, what can we do to actually be a little bit challenging and fun? Like seem to help a little bit at least. 

02:58 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Sure did Other 40s in the space. I'm going to stick with the Leafs theme really quickly here, but back in the day the Leafs used to own the Ottawa Senators in the playoffs every year and it was Patrick Lilleam wearing number 40 in net for the Senators. In one game, seven gave up arguably the worst goal I've ever seen in the playoffs to Joe Neuendijk crossing the blue line taking a little wrister. The difference in all those series is was the Leafs had Curtis Joseph and Ed Belfort and the Ottawa Senators had Patrick O'Leary. Poor guy, he suffered through that uh, some other notables. Bartolo Colon, who I was a huge fan of just due to the amount of perspiration he used to have on them. He always looked like he was hung. I don't know if he drinks or not, he always looked like he was hung. I don't know if he drinks or not, he always looked like he was hung over on the mound. 

03:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, I don't know, but favorite for sure the video of him hitting the home run is pretty incredible. Oh man, it's so good yeah. 

03:54 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Horrible bat, horrible bat and actually a pitcher who had a great bat with war 40, Madison Bumgarner as well wow, yeah, there's a lot of good 40s. 

04:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
We were on a shit run. Yeah, we were on a real, real shit. 

04:09 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
We're like matt fratton, like, oh, it was tough. Some of the late 30s were real tough 40. We're starting to get back into range. Um, I'm trying to think of an nfl 40 and I can't think of one off the top of my head. See if I got a list. Oh, mike allstott. Are you familiar with mike? Yeah, fullback right. Yeah, fullback for the Bucs. Yeah, he was a great player. Who do you got up on screen? Oh, that's Sean Kemp. I should have known that from the NBA Jam Days as well. Lots of good 40s out there. Lots of good 40s that are out there. I, I don't have anyone to throw. 

04:41 - Zack Phillips (Other)
to segue, I was going to try to help you, but I thought you were just going to go and jump into it on your own. This is very unusual. I kind of sewered you a little bit there. 

04:52 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Well, I wasn't expecting you to give me the segue. I don't know why. I was expecting the mute dummy we got here to give me a segue or anything like that. But I do have to remind everyone. Well, he does every week he does segue or anything like that. But I do have to remind everyone, he does every week, he does. Well, I like, I like what you did there. Hopefully he doesn't hear that he will. It's Super Bowl week. He's definitely gonna hear that it's Super Bowl week. 

05:16
There's lots of bets to be placed. Everyone's gonna bet the Super Bowl. I'm not saying you shouldn't, you definitely should. It's a great time to entertain, entertaining play within your limits. 

05:23
If you are going to bet the Super Bowl and you're in Canada, make sure you have a Pinnacle Sportsbook account, especially if you're betting a lot of games. You're going to price shop these games. You're going to find some very good prices at Pinnacle Sportsbook Low margins it's great for a bettor. You place 20 bets at minus 110. Everywhere else you can place those at less vig at Pinnacle Sportsbook. Make sure you're doing that for Super Bowl week. I 100% recommend it. 

05:49
If you're going to do so, use code HAMMER when you do sign up to Pinnacle in Canada. It supports us here on circles off. There's a reason. They've been in business for 25 years, very reputable book. So, betsmart, betpinnacle, your trusted sportsbook. You, that pinnacle, your trusted sports book. You must be 19 plus, not available in the US. And, as always, please play responsibly. Before we get into our guests this week, one announcement Next episode we do of Circles Off is going to be live in studio here on Monday, february 12th, the day after the Super Bowl, me and Johnny in studio. Make sure you're subbed here to circles off. Make sure you click that notification bell. It'll alert you when we go live, but we'll be recapping the Super Bowl between the Chiefs and the 49ers. That was our prediction. By the way, yeah, on last episode yeah, I posted it. 

06:40 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I tried to like tell people and explain. I put it in the episode too, like these guys predicted it. That's why we were laughing so hard. Yeah, cause Johnny, full Seward he Seward me. 

06:50 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, he threw me right under the bus asking for who's going to. So for people who don't know and this will come up in this week's episode as well when we're chatting with our guests we record these a couple of days in advance of when they go live. So when we had recorded last time, johnny had asked me who I thought you know what I thought of the Super Bowl matchup. We didn't know the Super Bowl matchup yet. I had to give a prediction and say I like the 49ers. Now I I took the easy route there. Right, because the Ravens at that time were four and a half point favorites. The 49ers were seven point favorites. I said, well, the most likely scenario here is going to be the 49ers. I said 49ers are seven point favorites. I said, well, the most likely scenario here is gonna be the 49ers. I said 49ers, johnny goes out and picks the Chiefs four and a half point dog and he gets it right. So we got the Super Bowl right. I don't. 

07:36
I think the game's kind of a coin flip. I think it's kind of a coin flip game. I'm very much looking forward to it. I'm very much looking forward to it. I'm very much looking forward to it, as I am to this episode. But make sure again that you are subbed here on Circles Off. Just looking at our numbers right now, this is pathetic. The last 28 days, our watch time from subscribers is only 33.8%. Our watch time from those not subscribed is over 66%. Come on, people, get with the program. You're watching this much of Circles Off. Make sure you click that subscribe button down below. Set bell notifications. Don't be a freeloader, don't be. Yeah, I love when Costas used to say that Don't be a freeloader. 

08:15
We're back on Monday for a live episode, but let's get right into it. Our guest this week on Circles Off is a second-time guest right here on the program. He debuted in episode number 16, which was a very long time ago. We weren't even on YouTube yet. You can find that on Spotify or on Apple Podcasts in audio form. His name is Porter, also known as BA Analytics. You can follow him on Twitter at MLBKsPsychic. He's a professional sports better specializing in prop markets. Porter, welcome back to Circles Off. 

08:50 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Thank you. Thank you very much for having me back on. It's been a while. 

08:53 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It's been a long time For full disclosure. Myself and Porter are familiar with one another. We interact on Telegram every now and then maybe occasionally participate in some discords together, but, as I mentioned earlier, we haven't recorded since June of 2021. I don't want to start this off in our typical give me your full background, because we've kind of done that already before, but just so that the audience now has a general idea of how you fit into the betting ecosystem or landscape, I want you to just fill them in a little bit on that, Porter. 

09:25 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Right. So last time I was on I basically just talked about doing props and I guess maybe I was still, even though that was three or four years into this industry. I've sort of changed my mind and tune over the last couple of years and realized that being stubborn really doesn't get you anywhere very far and eventually when you start seeing that there's a cap in something you need to expand. So I'd say today I have a really strong team around me where my job is kind of transformed more into kind of like managing and operational dealing with partners. And today, while I was a posted in the past, I think someone else kind of popular in this industry said but money is green. 

10:09
So I'm not opposed to the origination we do, I'm not opposed to top down, I'm not opposed to, you know, getting information from other you know sharp guys in the industry which, by the way, is hard to find. You'd be shocked how many guys are parading out there as winners. And I don't mean I'm not talking about touts now, I'm talking about, you know, I'm talking about guys who most of the public do think are winning. And so I've kind of changed operationally where I'm more in tune with just kind of doing wherever it takes, and that's really what's necessary to grow over time. You really can't just be. You know one little niche. Even though you might still be good at this niche, you know it's important to evolve in this industry. 

10:49 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
There's lots of topics we can talk about today and I wanted to make this more of a general discussion on state of the industry. We'll get into some account extension stuff. We've had Ship the Justice on before. We had Mr Limited on as well talking about account extension. We've had so many questions in Q&As before about partnerships, which I want to pick your brain on as well. 

11:09
But I want to start with what you just said there in terms of people who masquerade as winners or maybe even think that they're winners themselves, that are not winning in the space. And for me it's been quite a few weeks in the gambling Twitter space. I consume a lot of social media but specific to gambling Twitter people essentially telling on themselves with, like, a lack of understanding of sports betting acumen, with some of the tweets that they put out. The ecosystem is drastically changing and has drastically changed over the span of the last few years. People who have been betting for a couple of years, you know they've now convinced themselves that they're experts in the space. Porter, what do you make of everything that's going on in the space right now and the amount of you know people that have flooded into it and essentially evolved the industry? 

12:02 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Yeah, so what you said there, that last line, that's really what it is. The industry has just completely changed. I don't think 20 years ago, billy Walters could have imagined that a person could figure out how to get 200,000 followers and affect the market and quite possibly not be a winner. But what's important for the audience to understand is that it makes perfect sense that there will be people coming out of Twitter that have done well, run hot and are now popular and famous and influencing the market. Think about like this there's at least I don't know the exact number, it's got to be 10,000 Twitter cappers going on. Of course, out of such a large amount of people, you are going to get individuals running hot for extended period of time. That's just how this works. If there's enough people trying, somebody will figure it out and will run hot where it doesn't matter if they're now breakeven or losing, but they've won in the past and the casual doesn't really understand that something really has changed and they're still influencing the market. 

13:12
And here's what's interesting You're going to eventually, eventually, there's a point where you know there's a tipping point where that person will decline, but you're just going to have someone new filling in that role because there's another 10,000 guys out there trying to give picks and somebody will run hot. So how the industry today is is there's a ton of value to be gained if you can actually pinpoint these guys selling picks, giving picks that have gotten big enough and you disagree with some of their plays. It makes it easier to get a better number and a larger volume now with some of their plays. It makes it easier to get a better number and a larger volume now. So it's just the market has become something else and you need to adapt to the realities of what's going on. And there's definitely an old school wave of thought out here where they're just honestly over criticizing these people Because in reality, if your net goal is to turn a profit, then having more market chaos, that's great. 

14:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
It depends on what the goal is right. So there are certainly people out there that just have the goal of profiting, and if that's your sole goal and someone is spewing a bunch of nonsense on Twitter that has a following and a lot of people are lapping it up, you could argue exactly what you have, that it's better for you if they have. I'm on the other side of things where, because of my background which is unique, but like I had a problem gaming issue so I hate seeing people who mislead the public, even though by going after them I'm probably doing myself a disservice as a better. So it's like this balancing act for me. But what's really captured my attention in recent weeks is the amount of people and I've known this to exist, it's not like this is something new but the amount of people that actually believe that they are experts in this space. 

15:02
So I'm not going to name names here because it's besides the point, but the last couple of weeks alone, I saw someone go on a tangent on gambling Twitter about how parlays are terrible because of the household claims to be a winning better, doesn't understand that how parlays could help or be beneficial to a winning better, and just thinks that you should never do that. You know? Red flag number one for me. I've seen someone else tweet that there's too many people in the regular sports betting media or sports media that are getting jobs as betting analysts and those should go to people who actually bet themselves, completely like not grasping that what they're doing is also the exact same thing. So what do you make of this and I don't want to even say resurgence, but this cream rising to the top of people who think that they are experts in the space that in reality, don't really have the knowledge of an expert in the space? 

16:00 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Right. So I think it's important to note that sometimes we get stuck in our bubble, but this is not unique to sports betting. This exists in hundreds of industries, and it is shocking that it never works out where someone who's legitimately in the space becomes famous enough to kind of knock these guys a peg down. Or even if they do become that big, they probably don't care to. So it's a little bit confusing. Look, I'm all for. I'm more of a personal accountability guy. So after you've been told two sets of facts, I understand the nature of look, the sportsbooks themselves are trying to basically create addicts, even though they have whatever they call protection you know, consumer protection. In reality, I'm still, at the end of the day, the only real solution is some form of the individual getting to facts and deciding for himself what's right and what's wrong. There's not too much. I don't know how many times I've tried. I mean, you've tried to. That's what your show's about. I don't believe. If I mean, if the number one goal was to help that, then the only thing that someone should be doing is marketing and getting bigger, because without getting bigger, you won't be able to influence enough people. But of course, it's disgusting what these touts are doing. Look, some of them don't know that they're not winners. 

17:15
A ton of these guys came up doing gimmicks. Effectively, they found a mistake. Look the legal market. Once it started, it was the wild wild west. There was insane things you could do where anyone who forget sports betting. You just literally had to click buttons until you found things that were broken. You don't need to know sports betting to do this. 

17:35
So, in reality, if you came up in this industry with success through gimmicks and don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong with gimmicks if it's a part of your tool bag, but if it's the only tool in your tool bag, then you're in for a really harsh reality. When you came up crushing, you did. Look, in all honesty, a lot of these guys crushed. It's really easy to win with a $5,000 free play promo. I know at one point DK was giving winning bettors $100 back on every $1,000 bet. You basically can't lose. So, in reality, if you came up through these gimmicks, you made money. You now believe you're an expert because you know that's the result you saw. But now, with the market sort of changing this, freebies are. They're still there, but a lot harder to find. You know you're going to start seeing a lot of people kind of falling off an edge here, moving forward. 

18:26 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Now. So I agree with you. I think, at the end of the day, it's on the consumer of anything to do their due diligence right in the space and try to figure out whether you know if it's whether it's buying picks or consuming some sort of free content that you're going to tail the picks or whatever. At the end of the day, it comes down to the individual who's doing that themselves. The challenge I have is that you think of other industries, right, like I want to book a vacation, I'll go to, you know, expedia, kayak, whatever, whatever the site is, google Flights, whatever, and there's going to be lots of reviews by people who are not incentivized to review in any way, that know whether or not the resort that they stayed at was good or bad and leaves a review and explains why. And you know the staff was courteous, my room was a mess, you know the beach wasn't as good as they said. 

19:20
And those exist in the sports betting space. The challenge is you got 98% of the bettors this is just industry studies, by the way who lose right, and give or take a percentage point here or there. So if you go to get a review from someone else in the space, you're getting a review from someone who doesn't know any better. You know what I'm getting at like. It makes it very, very difficult for someone, whether they're purchasing pics, consuming content, to tell what's bs and what's not, because everyone else in the ecosystem can't tell what's bs and what's not. Yeah, the. 

20:01 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
The difficulty with this is that in reality, if you kind of believe in like sort of the American model, that's on the regulators and I'm sure you've heard from a lot of people in this industry the regulators are just sort of in cahoots with the books, so they're just trying to get more tax revenue, so they don't care that. You know things are. You know we're creating addicts. I mean, the same thing happened in the UK where addiction rates. It took half a decade and they started to skyrocket. You're going to see these same trends eventually, unfortunately, come to the American market. That's just the nature of the beast and I'm not really pro-regulation, but in my opinion the solution unless you're truly someone famous is it's kind of out of our hands. 

20:43
I don't really see a way to solve this issue. It's more of people don't want to take personal accountability. That's why they buy picks. By the way, it feels better to just take someone else's pick. If they lose, it's not you who lost, it's they who lost. So you're kind of removing the accountability. So to me maybe this is kind of more a philosophical question and while I despise that they're basically creating addicts and under, if you really thought about this, that should be some kind of actual I don't know, maybe crime. You know that big tobacco gets sued. I don't know exactly how you can solve this issue, but I do think at the end of the day, not enough people are taking personal accountability. I get that they're getting the wrong facts, but then how do some people find the right facts, you know? So I don't like it. I don't think it's ethical, but I don't see a great solution. 

21:34 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I think a lot of people find the right facts through experience honestly like they'll buy picks and then they'll realize, well, this person doesn't win, why am I doing this? And then maybe they'll go down in a second path and try someone else. I mean, I'm basically describing my childhood in some capacity. It's like, well, this guy didn't win, but this guy's on this run, I'm going to buy his picks before you eventually realize, okay, all of this is BS and maybe it just takes people living that experience. It just sucks that it has to happen that way, where it's like through experience rather than you know. 

22:06
The weird thing to me is sports books, in my opinion, could put out marketing campaigns like of this is exactly what sports betting is. You are very likely going to lose in the long run for X, y and Z reasons. You pay a vig, you do this and whatever. I actually don't even think that would deter people because they want the entertainment from sports betting. But there seems to be like this I don't want to even call it aspirations, but you see a lot of like the tweets about this $2 bet or one a $200,000 parlay or whatever, and to me like that's not even necessary to get people betting. It's just a behavior people want. You can be real with them, avoid them going down a horrible path. They still probably lose in the long run. They still probably generate a lot of you know, daily engagement with the sports book and so on and so forth. Like it doesn't have to steer to the one direction, at least in my opinion. 

23:01 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Hey look, we'll either be proven right or wrong. Either you know, DKFD Caesar stock is going to go crashing, but we got another 20 years of these companies growing. I kind of I know it sounds ridiculous, but I sort of don't disagree with how these books operate in terms of if their duty is to their stock shareholders, then they're acting morally and ethically correct. That's just how the market and market dynamics work. Whether it's right or wrong and it's clearly morally wrong is a different topic. 

23:38 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, I do get that side of things as well and I think people have the, generally speaking, the inability to like step back and get the full picture of what's going on here. It's like, well, how could this sports book do? How could this CEO come out and say this? It's like, well, he's got you know, he's reporting to a board of directors, he's got certain mandate under his job to get you know X amount of people onto the platform and whatever. 

24:02 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
But yeah, which is why which is why I always kind of say a lot of us are kind of in this bubble that it's like sports betting, you know, we only see it from one perspective and one viewpoint and it's hard for us to see it from the other side. And I think if you start seeing it from the other side, depending on what your goals are, you can be better situated to succeed in this industry. 

24:20 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, I mean, I get it Like I was 22 years old and I was doing, essentially, infomercials for covers and for their experts. I'd interview a daily, an expert every single day Dave Malinsky, steve Merrill, teddy Covers, matt Fargo, like the list goes on and on and I didn't know any better in hindsight, like, if I could go back to that time, would I change anything? I probably wouldn't, because it was a job for me. I was on air. Would I change anything? I probably wouldn't, because it was a job for me. I was on air. Like you know, it's challenging to and like people don't understand that point of view, that other side of things, but it is what it is. 

24:59
Really want to pick your brain on something a little bit topical right now, because we had this situation this past weekend, which was Pebble Beach and three-round tournament on the PGA which is unusual, but it happens where they call the final round due to inclement weather, they can't get it set up. 

25:17
Now, a lot of people thought and knew this was going to happen, so they went to their sportsbooks and they started taking shots right Parleys on, you know, t5s, t10s, t20s, winner of the tournament, throw them all together and hope that there's no final round. Some of them did it while the third round was live. Some of them did it after the fact, after the third round was done. There's a lot to process here and there's been a ton of opinions on the matter, both from the better side of things, in terms of whether or not you should take that type of shot, and from the sportsbook side of things, whether the operator should be on the hook because there are no explicit terms in their terms and conditions and their house rules. Curious. What your thoughts are on the entire situation from both perspectives? 

26:05 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
curious what your thoughts are on the entire situation from from both perspectives, right? So I think the best way to approach situations like this is thinking in terms of numbers and not necessarily in terms of, like the you know, an outcome is not zero or a hundred. There's a lot of you know variables that you know you might have a 40 outcome or a 60 outcome. So I think congratulations to the sportsbooks that were actually on a free roll if the round four started on all the people who put in those third round bets. But you know that's the nature of the beast. I do think all the players look it worked before. You know a different scenario where highly unusual scenario, you know the Draymond Green situation happened and they, they did pay out. I know it's not the same situation Because here, effectively, you're talking about past post betting, the third round for some people, and I absolutely think just so it's very clear people should always be taking these shots if the possible result of the outcome is greater than the consequences, and here the consequences might be that you've got your account banned or there's a myriad of possible consequences, but the upside here is is pretty tremendous if it goes through. So if you've thought about the possible downsides and you think they're worth it. You should absolutely be taking shots like this, you know, at the sports books. Now I think the sports books should protect their interests and void these bets. But that doesn't mean that people are wrong for attempting to take the angle. 

27:35
I know some people are in the viewpoint that this is more like a you know, you and the book are, you know, doing this dance and you're sort of on the same team and maybe you can help out the book. And don't get me wrong, if you're really huge in this space, that might work for you. But if you're the everyday guy, no, it's not. You're not on the same team. You guys are adversaries. You're basically going into war every single day and trying to figure out how to beat the other side. And look, they were willing to take a shot at all the people who put those round robins and parlays top fives, top ten. 

28:09
I'm positive they would have graded it one way if round four had happened. So I don't think it's the end of the world that people are attempting to take shots. It happened, so I don't think it's the end of the world that people are attempting to take shots. But listen, if you bet after shot didn't work. Sorry, like you know, if now, if you bet before the last hole now I'm starting to have a little bit of you know one nice gamble, that that's. That's pretty sharp of you to pick it up before the round ends, but yeah, that's a tougher one where I could see either way, there's probably a lot less people that bet beforehand. I feel like a lot of what I'm seeing on Twitter is all past post betting and again, I'm not opposed to it. I just the book beat you. They voided the bet. Sorry, the gamble didn't work. 

28:49 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, I think there's a lot of talk now and I've seen a lot of this. 

29:00
We'll see, actually, how much of this actually comes to fruition of people threatening litigation. Right, like, well, I'm going to sue the book because there are no rules in your house, rules about these alternate markets, the T5s, the T10s, the T20s there's. I mean, candidly, I've went through all the house rules for some of these books and it's extremely unclear. But I will say there's a house rule at every single one of these books that says that they can void due to, like, an obvious error or obvious line error or obvious mistake. And to me, as much as like I root for betters and like I'm all about just like you, taking your shots, trying to use like logic and use your brain to figure out an edge and gain an edge, but at the end of the day, it's pretty obvious that this was an error and allowing you to parlay all of those things when there was not going to be a final round or very high chance of it, I don't see how anyone would win any sort of litigation against a sportsbook on this matter. 

29:55 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
That's the beauty of how this country works. If someone wants to do it, they can't. 

29:59 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
You know right yeah, yeah, I mean I'm kind of jealous. I didn't think about it in in real time but at the end of the day, I I don't see what's going to come of this. Um, the, the, the counterside is the. The argument that, well, if there was a fourth round which there could have been, it was it wasn't decided, like a lot of which there could have been. It wasn't decided, like a lot of people put in these bets when it wasn't decided yet that the tournament was over. If there was a fourth round, would my bets have stood? And the answer is yes, they all would have stood. 

30:31 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Well, this is real simple. The book isn't your friend, it's just that simple. 

30:43 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yep, oh, oh, all right, I, I mean, I, I go, I go back and forth, I, I do. It's, it's the mass amount of liability that's built, been built up, right, like you see, some of these parlays, they're paying like 700k, right, you know it's, it's not, it ain't happening the payout you know, if love sports betting, you know what the worst thing that could possibly happen for you is all the books disappear, right, you know? 

31:03 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
and if you have enough of these scenarios where you're just allowed to do anything you want, look in all honesty if you gave some syndicates unlimited amounts to bet in small markets, they're going to own the sports book after a year or two. So it makes sense that these books need to sort of protect themselves, and it's our job, as at least professionals, to figure out how to play this song and dance with them, because they're not just going to give it away. And, to be honest, there are some advantages to the fact that they make things difficult. Listen, if it was easy, everyone would do it, and then there would be no edge whatsoever. So a lot of these things that people are rooting for like, oh, let me bet more, they don't realize that what they're actually saying is they will be marginalized out of the industry eventually if all these things happen. And it was super easy that is true. 

31:49 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
However, the vast majority of people I know would take a 700k payout to never bet again like that so I mean maybe not someone like you who's a pro, better, or something like that, but for a casual who's just like you know, trying to score a big payday, they don't really care if they're putting a sports book out of business by doing so. Um. So there's, there is there is that side of it as well yeah for sure. 

32:13 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Again, the, the goals and like I mean, there's no question I'm to be honest, I'm on the casual side. I just kind of figure the world operates a certain way. So it is what it is like to me if I did that. I just shrug and move on. I can't just like you said, I just can't see how you could. You know, and people know the people, people know that if you bet after you know you were taking a shot, you know and just hoping goes through. You know you were taking a shot, you know and just hoping it goes through. And you know what Sometimes it will go through and work out. 

32:42 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So this is how long ago did you start betting About how? 

32:46 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
many years ago. So I started 2016,. But for the legal bets, legal sites, I was a year late. I didn't really believe again stubbornly that it would work out. And you can, I just thought you'd get limited in two seconds and it I was a year late. I didn't really believe again stubbornly that it would work out. And you can, I just thought you'd get limited in two seconds. And it took me a year and someone kind of annoying me to change my mind and go see if what was happening was what everyone was saying. And yeah, it was the wild, wild west at the beginning. 

33:11 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So the only reason I asked that question is because I kind of see a divide on this topic between what I will just refer to as old school and new school. So for me, I grew up taking these types of shots on like PPH accounts. I think I famously told the story. I mean, I don't know how long ago I told the story but I bet on a PPH when I was younger that for two or three years did not adjust for daylight savings time, so I knew the results of horse races and I could still bet those races and I tried to maximize that. I grew up taking those shots. 

33:51
Now, if those got voided, that would have just been standard practice because I've had that happen to me so many times in life and a lot of us who bet in the PPH world before even an offshore or a legal, we're just accustomed to bets getting voided all the time, like even if you get a great price on something that, like you know, wasn't even a bad, obvious error, that could be voided by your agent or whatever. So I think there's a lot of people that could be voided by your agent or whatever. So I I think there's a lot of people that that just lived that out already and they're like, yeah, what's the big deal here? This is like obviously never should be. But then there's the new school, who was like a little bit um in, less, less experienced. They kind of got into the game as regulation and and this world is foreign to them like the thought of how the hell can I place a bet into a legal sportsbook. They take my action and now they're telling me that this bet is not good. 

34:44 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
I thought this was what regulation was for well, to be fair, the sportsbooks are actually creating that scenario by giving these uh, you know, the guy got injured after one minute. Give them the money back. Or you know those other sites that do the reboots If the guy doesn't play enough, you know. So they're creating, they've created these little monsters sort of themselves. 

35:05 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, I mean I, I get that viewpoint, though, like I again take a step back Right, like, look at the bigger picture. And there's a lot of people are like yeah, it's just obviously a grew up, like this is a void. It's been a void for my entire life. Well, there's people that are new to the space that they've been told regulation, like there there's a regulating body. Like if you can't be mistreated, you can complain to, to regulators or whatever, and they need to. The sports books need to operate under their terms and conditions and they're I don't think that's a bad thing. 

35:39 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
I don't think that's a bad thing that people are complaining about it. I just that's the. You know. You just have discourse, you figure out what's going to happen and it is. It is really what it is, so it's. I don't think there's an issue with people complaining. I mean, look, there is an issue where I do think actually I'm not sure how this started, but the money back thing. I just assume that DraftKings or whatever companies are doing this, they just saw it as a good marketing tool, so the people asked for it and it affects lots of people. You know you get worse lines. You know when they focus on these promotions they can't really focus on the sports book part, so they kind of let the consumer lead them into the direction, because maybe they're not experienced enough to understand the possible ramifications of some of these decisions. 

36:23 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I think the thing that I find funny or amusing about the whole situation is the recreational sportsbook push towards these bet types over the last couple of years. Over the last couple of years, right, you can same game parlay anything put together, a 20 game parlay, whatever and they have advertised this ad nauseum. Like we're in Ontario, basically there's not a sports book commercial that I see that doesn't promote a same game parlay in some capacity. And what I find comical about the entire situation is that, yes, like these are higher hold bets, the sports book wants to take them, but then you accumulate this amount of risk on a golf event because so many people figure out you know sort of a loophole, and I I find I find that to be a little bit comical. Yeah, they basically created the situation themselves over years of pushing people towards these types of bets. 

37:24
Last week we spoke to Mr Limited and we got very good feedback on that show in the comments down below on YouTube and, as always, if you want to give us some feedback at any time, comment down below here. Make sure you smash that like button down below as well and subscribe here to Circles Off. We've had a lot of conversations about account extension on the show in the past year Started with Shipper when he was on former trader at a recreational sports book, kind of just went through how they would limit in his experience there. Mr Limited betting into accounts kind of went through his experiences as well. You're also an expert in keeping accounts alive. This helps sustain your livelihood, especially with your bet types. What do you think are some of the best practices for sports bettors to keep accounts alive that maybe have been going under the radar, that haven't been discussed yet? 

38:08 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Okay, so I'm going to do something that you talked about earlier in the episode. I'm either going to tell on myself or I'm going to tell on somebody else. So here we go. Totally different take to this opinion about accounts and getting limited. So I believe that there's a certain segment of the population Actually, let's start from the beginning Poker pros, a lot of this you can take a connection from coaching and poker pros Very high stake level people. 

38:36
It's correct. They're not playing one to two, no limit or low stakes, but if you take their theories and are able to understand them, then you can apply them to even though that individual might not be playing those stakes. You can still apply those theories. So same thing in sports betting. I believe that the practice of attempting to extend accounts is it means something a little bit different than what people think. Okay, so if an individual in this space is a semi-pro, then I'm just gonna throw out random numbers that I think are somewhat close. They're looking to either replace their current job in the amount of money they make, or they're looking at it as a hobby or side income and trying to make a little bit less or the same of what they're already making in their current life. Okay, so we'll start with that base. Using that base, the math is real simple. Effectively, these sites, if you can bet, say, $500 on them, you're really only looking to win two units or three units a week. So if you're trying to win that amount, then it makes sense to attempt to do, you know, circumvent these limits. So if that's your goal, then you should absolutely be attempting to, you know, get these accounts extended. But understand that in reality, this advice is being given for people that are attempting to win and again, I'm kind of throwing out random numbers, but I would guess somewhere between 50 and 75k, maybe 25,000 and 75,000, depending where they live in the United States. 

40:10
So a lot of this focus on account preservation and extension, first of all, is anecdotal. Not people that work on the back end. But you're talking about I'm sure you've sort of thought about this before where someone's talking about an experience and you're like isn't that a sample size of a seven? That doesn't make too much sense. Let's say it's a huge sample size. Let's say you're really good at bearding, aren't you talking about a sample size of 20? So a lot of the advice is anecdotal. So what you're doing is you're risking account extension, which effectively means figuring out how to break even winning without CLV, which I have to tell you, for most of the audience is highly unrealistic. So account preservation and account extension, they're just synonyms and code words for losing. You will net win approximately the same amount if you focus on other things, like maybe figuring out how to start your next, not limited, account. So a lot of this like focus is in account extension. 

41:09
I'm not so pro for it. Now, if you don't have the ability to network, you don't have the ability to place 50 60 bets a day. Look I, I get nba guys telling me sides and totals. They're high volume guys. They got four or five bets a day. You know, in this industry it's very easy to have 50 or 60 in a day. 

41:28
So to me, most of these people aren't even realizing their long run edge. They don't even know that. That's part of the problem with betting a three percent roi thing. By the time something has changed and you've picked up on it, you might have been betting minus 1% the whole time, which is how I think the acceptance of break-even seasons has come to life in the maybe old school mentality where, in reality, if you think about this kind of like how poker used to be, where some guys are playing millions of hands a year. You know their long run comes a lot sooner. 

42:03
So again, I think a lot of this account extension stuff is sort of non nonsense. In all honesty. Again, this depends on your goal in the industry. So when you're talking about maybe the reason why some of these accounts are being extended is because they went two units a week, three units a week, and not because of all these kind of gimmicks where you trick the book, look, it makes sense to me to think if you mislead the book at the beginning, that you are going to get a longer leash. Do you know how many times here's an anecdotal experience I have done this then run the account back 90% of the way to even and then been cut off. Let me tell you how many times people are forgetting to mention that experience into the calculation of them. You know, extending accounts. 

42:47 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, a lot to process there. 

43:12 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
no-transcript go in there, do what you got to do and you're better off in the long run doing that. Yeah, I mean, look, I I know also what's sort of happening in a couple of these places on the back end. A lot of this is anecdotal and the reason the accounts are lasting is because this account wins two units. Rest assured, if you, you know, put in negative ev parlays for a month and then all of a sudden put the sharpest, best clv, yeah, you'll get some run back, but there's a good chance that you don't run it all the way back. Even so, I don't think people take into account maybe they tried this strategy six times. It didn't work twice. They forget about that. You know, put that in the past and great to work these next four times. 

43:50
I think there's a little bit too much. There's a lack of focus on look, if you spent 2,000 hours on your model and 2,000 minutes on your process of being able to get down, there's a mismatch here. A lot of people are just not properly allocating their time and, again, it depends on your goals. In this industry, not everyone's goals are the same thing, but I think a lot of this account preservation is anecdotal and it's more based off the fact that, yes, you're doing some things that sound good, but in reality you're winning two units a week, and that's 80% of the reason that they're keeping you around, because they're not sure exactly if you're a winner or not a winner. So it's complicated. You need a massive sample size to really know what's going on. 

44:32 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Well, that's an interesting point and I actually have not heard that talked about at all by anyone, because you know, I adjust based off experience. So do other people. But you're right, like if someone said to me in like any other sport, well, I got this sample size of 10 and you know I would be like, well, yeah, it's nothing. But yet in determining how I'm going to play certain accounts or things like that, I might use a very small sample and be like, well, you know, last time I went into this account I bet, you know, five straight bets or whatever got limited and this is what the market was. I'm not going to do that again when in reality it could have just been like bad luck could have been a trader seeing that account or whatever, and I'm formulating my entire opinion on how I should bet going forwards based off of that. I haven't heard that before and that's interesting. 

45:21 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Think about how dangerous that is to formulate entire extravagant operational strategies based off three times, four times. To me it sounds crazy and it's basically unprovable because no one's getting here to the long run of really understanding if it works or not. My personal opinion is that, yes, it helps extend an account. If your goals are to make money in that range, it makes sense to possibly attempt to do this, but this stuff is not the goal that you know. It seems like this new trend in Twitter spaces and podcasts is making it out to be. People think they found kind of the fountain of youth here and I think you're misleading a lot of casuals who can barely win as is, into doing questionable things. 

46:10 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Well, that's a different story now and that's on the individual themselves, right, and they have to have some sort of self-awareness, right. And to anyone out there, like, if you're not a winning better, you don't need to worry about being limited anyway. So like, this is a moot point. If you're a losing, better over the long run, it's a moot point and I completely agree with that. I think some people get fixated on this when they don't need to be. Unless you've actually already been limited at several spots as like a proof of concept, then don't worry about it. 

46:39
But there is something, porter, that's like extremely frustrating about not being able to get down and like pro bettors beards you mentioned that term before, people who don't know that that is but like essentially you're finding a way to get another account at, whether that be like a retail shop or whatever, anywhere, it's just finding a way to get another account. A lot of people don't wanna do that. There's inherent risk with that. Technically, it's against terms of service or whatever. So you get a couple of limitations. Maybe in a market where you have 10 legal sports book and now you're limited at two or three, there's not really a lot of paths forward for that type of person and from that point of view I can understand like being a little bit more cautious going forwards on the rest of the accounts. 

47:26 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Yeah, yeah, I agree, there is a certain demographic that this applies to and makes sense to do, but again, I think it's taking away from high level thinking of what is the actual and again there's no solution, but what is possibly the better solution, you know, and I don't believe that this is the optimal solution if your goal is something higher than just winning a unit or two a week. 

47:54 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
So let's go to your scenario, then, where you're betting at mass right. Is this ever a consideration for you? What if you were to get a hold of a VIP account as an example, somewhere where you could bet a huge amount of money In your head? Are you just going to extract that immediately for as much as you possibly can, or is there an art to making that account still seem like it is a square better? 

48:19 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
So, first and foremost, that's a question of partnership. So a lot of problems is sometimes maybe one individual speaks with the whale the VIP account and doesn't exactly explain what's going to occur. It's very hard, by the way, to explain and convince in the first place. A whale didn't get to the position he is in life usually out of luck. He succeeded in other avenues, so he's usually a confident individual. So I feel like the first part of this is this is a conversation you have with the partnership. Maybe this is an individual that wants his accounts limited. 

48:49
I've seen this situation before where they want you to go ham. Another person sort of gives you a range of what might be okay. So the question you're asking you asked me the question but in reality it's not my account, it's the partner's account. So it's a question that needs to be directed at the partner. And if they tell you certain stipulations like, hey, I don't want this limited, hey, we need to go a different avenue, then it's kind of up to me to explain the pros and cons of what happens attempting to do that. So I get that, you asked me the question, but in reality I think a lot of people in this space don't understand. 

49:23
These are partnerships. So when you someone brings you an account, it's not I'm doing 99.9% of the work and they're doing point 01% of the work. There is some work to be done on the other side of the aisle and, by the way, when that work is done, you're both going to have better success. So I get how you asked me that question of what I would do, but my answer to that question is I don't know. I'm going to ask the person who I'm taking the account, what he wants to do. Are there ways to make an account last longer and look less sharp? 

49:53 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yes, All right, let's pivot into partnerships partnerships, then. I think you're a very good person to ask a lot of these questions to. Uh. On episode 74 of circles off, we had ferris on, who joined us for a discussion. He explained a lot about how betting partnerships work and his experiences working with different groups. We do regular q and a's here on circles off. We run one typically once every couple of months and and I have been purposely saving some of these partnership questions in the hopes of getting you to answer them based off of your personal experiences. So these are ones we get these pretty regularly nowadays, but I'll throw them over to you, porter, and we'll go from there. How is a typical sports betting partnership structured? I'm being offered a 50-50 risk deal or a 15% free roll with makeup. Is this standard or am I getting screwed? 

50:47 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Okay, so step one partnerships basically work in the reverse of how a book works, so most books are Monday through Sunday, results settled the following Tuesday-ish via some form of internet money. By the way, I recommend everyone pay their taxes. So that's step one. 

51:05 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
You basically I also recommend everyone pay their taxes. 

51:08 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Okay, perfect, first thing, we you know good thing to agree on. So that's the first step. You kind of duplicate their business model into yours. Step number two is how you split an account up. So I'll just say more than I should. So in reality, most partnerships, I think in this industry, start 6040, where this assumes that the new partner is only giving you one or two accounts. And as they grow, those percentages shift towards the partner closer and closer to you know 5050. On a free roll side, the standard deal is $85.15. 

51:46
But here's a caveat to all this. So I'm going to talk a little bit more about the PPH space, even though it applies in the legal space, and PPH means betting against your local book or agent. So there are plenty of people in this industry that will say I have 50 accounts, I have 70 accounts. And then you ask them sure, what are the accounts? And they will, and it's not really important for the audience to understand, to hear the names. But there are some sites that are absolutely worthless or near worthless, and yet this person thinks he has 50 accounts. So an individual who has 40 pieces of garbage. I'm not even that interested in working them. It just sounds cool to people that, oh, this guy has a lot of accounts. Now if someone has a highly valuable account, I'm willing to change the structure of the partnership completely. 

52:32
There are some sites where in reality if you're a break, even slightly winning player, better you shouldn't even make get into a partnership. You're going to be able to beat those sites. They're just that soft. And if you can't, then that's the perfect account to actually start a partnership with. Because there's nothing easier at the beginning of a partnership to sort of settle disputes or run into problems of winning. Now if you go on a long downswing and then all of a sudden there's a lot more issues that become a lot more complicated. So in partnerships I think the beginning stages of a partnership are incredibly important to go slow. So if your partner is telling you you can win 5k on this account, I like to cap the account at 2000 the first week. 

53:14
Now it might sound like I'm leaving money on the table Now when I'm leaving on the table, or headaches that come up when all of a sudden that figure is too much. So a lot of these partnerships I feel like there isn't enough communication and understanding on the partner side that they have a job also. So at the end of the day, if you're getting half of the account, I'm not asking for people to do half the work, but just you know food for thought that you are getting half of all of the results. So but to answer that opening question, that's that is the standard deal in this industry. Now, if the person has a really high ROI and again I'm shooting myself in the foot no one should take an 85-15 free roll. It probably means you're not positioned to be betting yet, because in reality, if they have a high ROI, you're really just kind of putting your account. 

54:02
Your account will eventually be cut off. People have a finite amount of accounts, so effectively they're wasting their account at a lower cut. There is in at least in smaller markets, there's no such thing as a free roll. These accounts, over the long run, will win, like otherwise. How would I be in the industry if they weren't? So you know, if you just do the simple math, it might be a wise decision to not really start off partnerships giving free roll, even though I'm all for it. I want a bigger cut. So I do believe people taking free rolls are kind of getting the short end of the stick. 

54:37 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I will slightly disagree just on one thing For anyone who's giving accounts, I would suggest you take a free roll if you cannot afford to pay 50% or 40% of the lot, because I will say I've seen this happen a million times before. I can tell when it's going to happen, because I can see people sweating bets in like the telegram chat. Can't believe we lost this bet like this, what a horrible week, or whatever. And I already know that it's going to come time to pay at the end of the week and there's going to be like ah, can you guys front me that? 

55:07 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
So if you-, well, that's a great point that covers the understanding your partner and partnerships are more than just a random person giving you an account where you need to spend time understanding what's going on. So, absolutely, if you have the ability to kind of foresee that this is an issue here, absolutely I agree with that. 

55:24 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah. So I would generally agree with Porter in that the vast majority of people that you give your accounts to are going to win in the long run. There are some bad players out there who operate under like false pretenses and they think that they're amazing that aren't. Vast majority will win. However, that does not mean that they cannot have a terrible week. 

55:46
And sometimes that'll happen the first week that you're working with them and you're like what the hell is going on here and then you're on the hook for a bunch of losses. So this doesn't just apply to partnerships, but sports betting in general. Do not bet more than you can afford to lose, like even if you are working with the best bettors, you have to have some sort of limit and understand your limits as well. So never let that get in the way when you are yeah, just to give a little bit of my experience. 

56:13 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
When I first started betting I was betting $25 units for a long period of time until I built my bankroll and then I bet $50 a unit for a long period of time until I really understood can I win? Is this market beatable? So absolutely For me personally. I'm relatively conservative when it comes to that, so I might overlook sometimes that people might be betting above their means. You should have a finite number where even it's hard to explain to the general public a 10% ROI, which is unreal in this industry, you can still take catastrophic losses and downswings and that's not an ROI that most of these partnerships are achieving. So let alone a 2% or 3% ROI. 

57:01
What that means to what could happen to your bankroll, so for sure no one I mean you can do the kelly criterion, which is way too aggressive, I think, like a general standard safe amount to bet. Uh, when you're starting and looking for some upside and I don't bet anywhere near this big on my place, individual I just can't. But I would say no more than maybe one percent, two percent of your bankroll. Is it kind of if you don't want to do too much hard math a kind of good good rule of thumb. 

57:31 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Next question comes from Riggs via email. If I work with a partner, am I still able to bet into the accounts myself? 

57:41 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Right. So that's a question of the quality of the group that you're working with In reality, with some of the tech, or if you have employees that are doing the accounting, that should have no bearing or issue on the account. So in my situation, I always tell them they can do whatever they want. Understand that if there's not enough credit, sometimes it's going to miss plays, but for me, if each play I'm entering is plus EV, I don't mind. I'm personally not sitting and doing the accounting every week, but I have someone who does. So it just depends on the size and scope of the operation. Really. And, by the way, that's kind of a weird, just to tell you, from the perspective of the sharp side ethical, unethical I don't mind that my partners bet in. Most of the partners probably don't win. I explained to them this. So are they giving me the account that might extend, an account that might bet more market? So there really shouldn't be any perceived downside or difficulties with someone else betting into an account other than tying up credit. 

58:37 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Tying up credit and then the accounting as well. It takes a little bit longer after the fact to decipher whose plays are who. 

58:44 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Right. 

58:52 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
But I think a big group, I think a bigger group that that should not. That's not an issue. Yep, totally agree. Uh, next one here. I am a winning soccer better congratulations. Uh, mostly smaller leagues, but I do well. Every time I reach out to someone for a partnership, they ask for me to send the plays through them instead of handing over the accounts directly to me. Any Any reason why this would happen? 

59:08 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
So I think I'm sort of out there, the king of anti-Send model plays. There's nothing I despise more than the Send model. The Send model to me tells me that people don't understand price sensitivity. So I'm going to go with the kind of dark side explanation of why they don't want to hand over the account. One they're not being honest with how much they're getting down if they've determined you're a winner. Two, when you give a price range, they're probably giving you closer to the bad part of your price range. Three, a lot of times they're not going to be around. You know, if you're a professional bettor or really winning, you're around all day. You can't afford to have someone be seven minutes late to play. 

59:50
The send model is designed in general to kind of screw the shark better and advantageize the mover, and it could be not on purpose. By the way, they might not understand how important price is. But here's a fun example you have 50 bets a day and you save on those bets on average 5 cents. Let's go crazy 10 cents. No, let's do 5 cents more than the person you're sending to. 

01:00:17
Now remember before I spoke about how people are looking to win 2, 3 units a week. Well, if you have 50 plays and you save five cents. On average, that's two and a half units. That's just to show people how important price is and why this, like fixation with the send model, has a lot of problems. Now don't get me wrong. A lot of times when you do the send model and you tell someone how much you got down, you might have gotten screwed along the way and not paid, so you might need a little bit of extra. So I'm playing devil's advocate here a little bit. But I think this all stems from the misunderstanding of price sensitivity and how easy it might be to get down sports spending to the more nefarious. They're trying to steal a few cents or getting down more than you expect. 

01:00:59 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Yeah, so I can speak from experience on this as well, and there's pros and cons to everything in sports. You'll get more down. You'll get more down, probably. So you know we're recording this on tuesday afternoon and if I wanted to bet, as an example, the pittsburgh penguins today, I could go to pinnacle and I could fill that bet for fourteen thousand dollars just with one click. 

01:01:19
14k penguins minus 107. Now my true line in the game might be minus 130. Let's say, right, if I'm working with betting partners who are betting it on my behalf and I send them, send this out to them and say, hey, I like the penguins up to minus 120, they're not going to return me the minus 107 at pinnacle. They'll probably bet it for the 14k themselves as well, but they're going to return me maybe minus 117, average price minus 118. And that's going to just take my ROI and bring it down. Now I can fill more money that way, which helps, rather than me having to execute all the bets myself. So there's pros and cons. But that is an illustration of the send model, where for some people it just doesn't make sense, like if you can fill these bets at smaller prices yourselves, you don't need to send them to other people who are going to get you worse prices, generally speaking. So how much credit would I typically need to have to make it worthwhile for a betting partnership? 

01:02:22 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
So you have to remember every play that's being put in theoretically should be plus EV. So if it's on an operational scale, adding another account isn't too difficult. So I find a lot of maybe older, more well versed guys in the industry or maybe a little bit older mindset. They're looking for huge limits and huge amounts. I really don't see much downside and I'll explain a little bit more on this why. Even taking a $100 max bet, $1,000 credit line, you can start partnerships. 

01:02:55
Now, when I started in this business, I was extremely fearful of those smaller accounts because in reality I wasn't betting enough volume to move the lines. But if you're established in this industry, once you click, even in the PPH space, within a second these lines move. So if you're concerned about being copied, I'm not. You want to copy at 30, 40 cents? Worse, by all means do it. It doesn't bother me. So to me, taking accounts as small as even 100, 1,000, sorry, 100 max bet, a thousand credit line, even that adds up. Now think about that with 80 of them all of a sudden. You know, makes a difference. So now here's why people don't do it. They don't want to put in the work communicating with 60 partners. You know what I'm willing to do, some of the hard stuff like that. It's not fun to have to send 65 excel sheets on a mond versus four. But you know, each person has his own niche and his own angle in the industry, so I don't see what the downside of taking even small accounts is. 

01:03:57 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
All right, one more here which I'm taking from our community forum. If anyone does want to ask any questions, you can do so by commenting down below, but also every episode I do check our community forum for Circles Off. All you got to do is go to thehammerbet, click on the nails on the left-hand side of the screen, and we do have a forum for Circles Off where you can drop in questions. Sometimes I will just answer them directly on the forum. Sometimes I'll take them to the show as well, but you can do that at any point. Also, you can enter to win a Pinnacle swag bag and a BetStamp swag bag. It's free of cost. All you got to do is enter that giveaway and we'll be giving them out. I'm going to summarize this one because it's a really long one, but it has to do with botting versus hand betting and what those mean, and particularly if you will take an account which you have to hand bet. Porter. 

01:04:45 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Yeah, of course. So botting effectively means it's not this all-knowing or at least from what I know, it's not this all-knowing machine that predicts what team will win and what team will lose, that you might have models on the side that you figure out and use. Botting is effectively a service where you have software that bets across lots of sites at the same time, because the line will move. Hand betting, by the way, if you're fast enough and sometimes I recommend people. Sports betting has so many components we used to effectively run drills of how to get through 20 sites as fast as possible. That's weird, right? That has nothing to do with sports betting and yet it was an integral part of the business. So hand betting effectively means where you're logging in manually into each site, which, by the way, if you're fast enough, you can get across 15 sites in 30 seconds. 

01:05:37 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
All right, it is the week of the Super Bowl, porter. We're recording this episode on Tuesday for full transparency for everyone out there. We typically don't record the day that it is released. But for you now, on this Tuesday, porter, what percentage of your Super Bowl bets have already been placed and how many more are coming up this week? 

01:05:58 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Right, so the early half of the week. So again I'm going to give a little insight into how kind of a professional betting landscape works. So Super Bowl props opened last week, not this current week. You would not want in the PPH space to enter bets for a previous week into the second week where there is a very good chance that that or not a very good chance, but some chance that that account doesn't exist. So the majority of my betting takes place for the Super Bowl in the first part, first week on legal sites. So you know Arizona, colorado, you go to the kiosks and the, you know the desks, the counter and that's where you kind of get down as much as you can. At this point I would say that's maybe hard to say because I'll explain a little bit how you bet the second half of the week and then I'll come back to the percentages. The second half of the week. And more actionable kind of to the listeners is this market. While it is getting sharper year over year, the casual public does influence the lines and if you were to talk to your friend, I highly doubt that your friend wants to root for the most boring, lowest scoring Super Bowl in the history of football. So, assuming that that's about how 99% of the people watching, it's very easy to understand that the market is going to drift up. Now here comes the sucky part of this. That means that in reality, if you're trying to optimize your results, you're gonna miss the first half of the Super Bowl because you should be behind the computer mashing away at the keyboard betting unders because this line has drifted throughout the week. Now look, if you're really doing this correctly, you should have been tracking the opening. You should be seeing what the number is now and actually seeing that it's going. 

01:07:41
I'm talking about modeling. The Super Bowl is a little bit complicated to model. It's not an everyday game. I'm talking about modeling. The Super Bowl is a little bit complicated to model. It's not an everyday game. But in reality, if you just want general strategy, the optimal way to do this is to wait until the last second and bet the other side, which is a thing we'll be doing. 

01:07:54
And again, it's not every play. Don't just open up the board and start clicking under on 99% of the plays. That's not a winning formula. But if you're not modeling and you see, I mean I can tell you now last year there was a site where, or two years ago, I can't remember, kelsey's line was six and a half and two minutes before the Super Bowl a site moved the line to nine and a half. You don't need to be a professional smart modeling algorithmic sports better to know what to do and how to make money. So I think if you understand sort of the processes of how the Super Bowl betting works, that can kind of help you more in turning a profit. It's not going to be fun because you're probably going to be betting unders at the beginning. So in general if you wanted to bet overs first half of the week would be on legal sites and that's mostly overs and they have a lot of exotics. 

01:08:47 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
The weirder the market, the better. In all honesty, if you're going to deep dive and then the back half of the week, you're probably betting quite a few unders. How much of this is pure origination versus? 

01:08:55 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
just shopping lines at different sites and more of a top-down approach. Yeah, so I would say, not only is it some origination, some top-down. I'm willing to listen to other people, I'm not particularly. You know, I don't believe in this. Invest all your eggs. This is the only time you can bet props. So bet every single market. This is not some 20% ROI fantasy anymore. It's a good week to bet, but it's not deplete your entire bankroll. Good week to bet. So I would say all three methods I sort of applied, maybe somewhat equally a lot of top down, a lot of origination sorry, equal amounts of top down origination. A lot of top down, a lot of origination sorry equal amounts of top down origination. And even getting down some of the more exotic markets for other people. I used to be opposed to all this. You know it would. Just I realized how, how much I was pigeonholing myself, just kind of not being open-minded to. You know there are a variety of ways and you know it's not just all about bottom up yep, agreed. 

01:09:47 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Uh, good tip there in terms of of betting late unders and early overs as well. Any other actionable, maybe? Piece of advice for super bowl week? Remember this is going to be thursday afternoon people see this for the first time so friday, saturday, sunday, to bet the super bowl. Anything you could think of off the top of your head that may be worth knowing yeah. 

01:10:04 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
So I'm kind of big into punts this game I know that sounds weird, right, who the heck's out here focused on punts, but I see a lot of good total punts overs gross. That's something that you can't bet the rest of your gross punt yards, uh, longest punts. So I'm taking a pretty strong position on that, on that and a little bit more of a fun bet. But I still think plus ev uh, you can work out historically and these teams that the opening drive I hope it hasn't moved too much by now, but it was 70 over 17 and a half. 

01:10:36
I feel like that's a bet where I know there are some viewers that are not just in this for profit. It's also a little bit of fun, but I find that to be a uh, a profitable bet that you know it's real quick. You're gonna know if you won or lost. And the other piece of advice I have is open up your draft kings or caesars or wherever they got, plus 100 on heads or tails, bet both the sides and pray that they make you vip not too many of those spots anymore, but you're right, you can get some plus 100s right around the Super Bowl. 

01:11:05 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
You heard Porter. He hates fun. He wants punts in the Super Bowl this year. Notorious hater of fun. First time we had you on. I don't know if we had the final questions yet, but we certainly didn't have the plus EV and minus EV moves of the week because those have been more recent. So it doesn't have to be related to sports betting at all. Could be anything, could be sports betting Totally up to you. But one thing you think is plus EV in life and one thing that you think is minus EV. 

01:11:35 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
All right, well, you know, if I'm the no fun guy, we got to start with the minus EV thing, so I can't pronounce this word. I should have probably hit Google and heard how it comes out. But there's a term called sorry I'm saying this wrong apophenia. This is literally a disease that is in sports betting, but also in general life. Humans evolved where they heard maybe some noise in the brushes when they were hunter-gatherers, and they heard this noise enough times to realize, oh, that's a lion, that's a lot of noise, let's run, okay. So now humans are hardwired to create patterns in their minds that do not exist, and this is something incredibly dangerous in sports betting and also unhealthy in the game of life. And there isn't some magical cure to this thing. Apophenia, it's just if you recognize that it exists. 

01:12:30
And I actually had a professor in college once who came out with a little card and the card had like 10,000 numbers and it was 10101101010. And another card said 100000011111. And he asked the students it's a pretty good university. He asked the student which one of these cards do you think is random? And 99% of the people said you know, 1010110. And the professor said how is that possible? Do you think the human mind is actually going to come out with a card that says 1 and then 14 zeros in a row? So I find myself very lucky that I was in that class one time, because, while this isn't something you can fix, humans are hardwired. If you recognize that sports betting involves not just you can't just make up patterns or see patterns you're going to see patterns that don't exist, and if you can kind of eliminate or at least understand that you're doing this, you're going to have a lot more success in sports betting and in the game of life. 

01:13:28 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Really appreciate that piece of advice. Apophenia, you nailed it 10 out of 10 on pronunciation there. Porter Didn't even have to look it up like I did, Plus EV move for you. 

01:13:38 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Plus EV. So on the other side of the tale, I think a lot of people in life they get really fixated on what they're doing and I'd say a lot of people here are watching you know sports betting show and they're really into sports betting and their entire life revolves around sports betting. So that means after you're done with the betting, after you know you're done, watching it continues on to be a part of your life and there's no possible way that if you don't have friends that do other things, that you have other outlets, that you can actually optimize your work for the sports betting. So I find it really important to figure out how to surround yourself and do other things that are not. You can't just be all in on something just because of the fact that you probably it will probably harm you. 

01:14:25 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
Fair enough, I'm going to put you on the spot here before we actually get into our final question, because there's a talking point that comes up pretty regularly in our comments section, in my DMs, in our community forum, and that is related to Right Angle Sports. So episode number 100, we had Ed Golden, founder of Right Angle Sports. So episode number 100, we had Ed Golden, founder of Right Angle Sports, on the program and historically, ras, as they're called out there by short form RAS has had very banner results, even though they sell picks for a very long time. This year, the college basketball results at time of this recording 169 wins, 173 losses, nine pushes, 49.4%, but obviously down significant amount of units because you're not betting plus 100 on all these. You're betting minus 110 on all of these. 

01:15:16
I know you're very active in the right angle sports discord and work for a longer period of time. What do you make of the downturn in results? Because this is like very back and forth in the community of like well, they're going to figure it out, they've lost their edge, they shouldn't be selling. What do you make of the whole situation that's surrounding right angle sports right now? 

01:15:39 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Right. So let's start with the record real quick. I mean one. It's kind of, you know, grouping results based on I'm not a big fan of grouping results. I know a lot of people will take a segment one season to season. You know this conference, that conference one. I'd say that the record is probably worse because the cash that's buying the product is chasing slightly worse lines, most likely. But I will say this I highly doubt, and again this is a little bit of speculation. 

01:16:08
I do know some of the guys at right angle sports. There's no question in my mind that they're not worse than they were before. These guys work hard, if anything, most likely they're better. But that has nothing to do with the fact that this the has changed. And maybe some I'm not saying right angle sports, but in general people are sort of in denial of how much you can get down overnight. So if you're a big operation and you need to sell to a lot of people, you know to pay a lot of guys. You need to be able to get down more. 

01:16:47
Industry has become kind of bottom of the barrel chasing where I think 15 years ago I heard you could pay the new guy 500 bucks to not bet early and he would stop where today there's just. It's culturally become more acceptable for guys coming out of MIT, cit, all these engineering guys. They can figure out how to win. This is easier than the bond market, stock market, financial markets. So, while Raz is most likely actually getting better at their job, the market in my opinion has just evolved where you can get enough down early and move the market so that, while historically maybe they had an 8% edge, it's easy to sell to people when you have less variance and you might still be a winner today and your ROI is three or 4%. And the new demographic we talked about, these individuals coming into the sports betting space, don't understand variance and what a three or 4% edge means. So you can have congruently. 

01:17:45
They're getting better and they're having worse results. It has nothing to do with how hard they're working. They're trying to, you know, screw the individual better. It's just the market evolves over time and if you've grown to a really large size where you need to sell a lot, you know you need to get down a lot. You've got to wait longer so they might be better than ever. But the market is becoming sharper overnight and, yes, you can get down large figures overnight. I mean large. Again, it's subjective. I can tell you can get five figures. You can figure it out. If you're a winner and you question this, you can get it. You can get that down. So they're getting better, the market's getting better. The clientele maybe today can't handle the variance, but in no place or shape or form do I think that they're losing bettors. That's actually a ridiculous concept. 

01:18:35 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
In terms of the clientele and we'll move on to the final question here shortly. Do you think that's because right angle sports is marketing themselves more now than they have before? I've been involved in this space for a long time. I've always known of right angle sports, but they weren't out there or as prominent, I think, as they are now and maybe reaching like more of the casual community people who think that they, you know, have found a gold mine. Do you think that there's more of that backlash because the clientele um is potentially just very different now than it was a couple years ago? Or do you think that this would be the same thing if it was just, you know, a bunch of pro bettors that were buying the subscription? 

01:19:11 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Well, that'd be incredibly pathetic. It was a bunch of pro bettors buying the subscription, like I'm sorry, you're not a pro bettor if you can't understand what like a 3% or 4% ROI is, I mean everybody. Look, there are markets small not often where you can have a 15% ROI and lose 10 bets in a row, like come on, so it's the clientele. And shouldn't they be trying to reach out for more people? Doesn't that make sense? This is just sort of the downside of growing pains and unfortunate variants hitting at the same time with market becoming slightly more difficult. 

01:19:51 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
All right, good perspective on that Final question here. Porter, if you could go back five years and talk to a previous version of yourself, what advice would you give to your former self? 

01:19:57 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
So I think I was on the show almost three years ago, so this is sort of fitting, you know. So two and a half, but you know we're at the halfway point, yeah, so last time I gave an answer on the show, I got told afterward it's a survivorship bias, was my answer, how I answered. So here's my answer for the question you're asking today. It's the same answer I gave two and a half years ago. At the end of the day, if I'm answering the question for myself, I learned none of the lessons of the last question. I'm still under betting my bankroll. I'm still not betting enough, being able to get down more. So I hope that you know, when Circles Off, flourishes and has me on again in three years, that I can give a different answer next time. 

01:20:38 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
All right. Well, we will have you on again at some point, porter, one way or another. Hopefully we are much larger at that point. Everyone make sure you sub here to Circles Off Over 5,000 followers now. Really appreciate all the support from everyone out there as we continue to grow. You can follow him on Twitter at MLBKsPsychic Professional sports better. Porter, really appreciate you joining us here for episode number 140 of Circles Off and we are back next week live version the day after the Super Bowl. Stay tuned, set bell notifications me and Johnny breaking down the Super Bowl. We'll see everyone next week. Peace out. 

01:21:15 - Porter (@MLBksPSYCHIC) (Guest)
Thank you.