00:00 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I did really well for a long time, well enough to build my own home in Vegas. I had $80 in my pocket when I got to Vegas. Eventually, I lived in a $3.1 million home, so I drove a Ferrari, so I did something right. Right, like come on let's go. 

00:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pinnacle is, of course, the best, the world's greatest sportsbook available to bettors across Canada. Find out what pro bettors have known for the past 25 years. P For the past 25 years, pinnacle is where the best bettors play. I bet on sports for a living for a while now. I would never consider not having Pinnacle as one of my sportsbooks Everyday competitive odds, great sportsbook offering great customer service, easy to deposit everything you would want in a sportsbook. Pinnacle has it. So make sure you check them out. If you are in Canada, use code HAMMER to sign up. It does help support us here on Circles Off and the Hammer Betting Network. And, of course, you must be 19 plus, not available in the US. And as always, excuse me, please play responsibly. Can't preach that enough. 

00:57
I thought all week about how to do an intro for our next guest, but really couldn't come up with anything that would do him justice. He's a legendary sports better whose keen insights and bold predictions have made him a big name in the world of sports betting. With decades of experience, including working under Billy Walters for several years, his strategic genius and fearless approach have earned him a reputation as one of the most respected figures in the industry. You can follow him on Twitter at BostonRed88. Alan Boston joins us here on Circles Off, alan, how's it going? 

01:30 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Oh, a lot better now that you played me up and leading us to, ultimately, probably to disappointment, but we'll see if we can. 

01:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think he got that from ChatGPT. 

01:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Artificial intelligence may have wrote that intro for me. It may have done that. 

01:44 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That's disappointing you know I'd be anti-chat GPT. 

01:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, absolutely Absolutely, Alan. Thank you very much for joining. I wanted to start off the pod with just telling a little story here. Just amongst some friends here who you know I've bet over the past, shared some good times sweating bets with. 

02:06
We had an all-timer tcu versus gonzaga end game where an absolute travesty happened. Ball came end of the game, game was already over I'm not even sure if tcu or gonzaga was winning. Guy inbounded it with about 0.7 seconds left from his own backcourt, was bouncing all the way to the front court, so the time hadn't started yet. He picked it up and threw like a little jimmy up, hit a three at the buzzer and it was a big for a cover that you had. And you claimed that you were retiring from sports forever. And that has been an inside joke, not necessarily poking fun at anyone or whatever from you, but whenever I suffer a bad beat I will oftentimes run it like write it and be like that bet, that beat was so bad I'm gonna retire from sports, alan boston style after tcu gonzaga. So how was? I'm glad to see you're back. 

03:02 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I didn't retire. Obviously I probably retired and unretired 10 times Like I don't. This is when I first started. This was a lot of fun. This was like exciting and different and it was a whole different era. And you know, here I am dead broke betting sports, like how good is this? 

03:21
But it was just, it was more the rush, like you're living on the edge. It deflected your attention from misery, so it was really it was my therapy in a lot of ways and ultimately it turned out I had talent for this and became a career, but now it's just a chore and the industry sucks and I'm sure we'll get into that. 

03:43
And I had a good one yesterday, the Purdue gamedue minus nine against uh uh. Wisconsin apparently was a good one too, where they were basically just dribbling out the clock and they hit a three. And then they were dribbling out the clock and the guy stole it and dunked it, which is like against the rules for you know. So I I didn't retire, but you win some and lose some. 

04:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So how do you lose most of them? 

04:04 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I've never run good in these things and I chart them, so it's not subjective, it's objectively I've run bad. 

04:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, how many years have you been doing this now, Alan? 

04:15 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Professionally since 89. Yes, I'm old and as the 30 seconds are up, I'm fucking old. 

04:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And you've been charting since 89, whether you win. No, I charted it. 

04:28 - Alan Boston (Guest)
When I first started I didn't know if this was going to be any kind of thing, but it was clear that I was good at this. And after Mr Walters contacted me and how he knew to contact me is beyond me, but that's, mr Walters, for you that was 1991 or two he just called me from out of the blue and I read I think I got something good for it, bill walters here, I think I got something good for us. It's like seven in the morning and I was probably got drunk and did coke the night before. And here I am listening to this guy like huh, and you know, I knew he was clearly and we had talked before and he said why don't we meet at the country club for lunch? I said why do we not meet at the country club? I, I didn't like the guy, so this was uh and and I didn't care, I, I was content doing nothing, uh, and I said well, he said where do you want to meet? And I tried to think of the sleaziest, most disgusting place. So I came up with Ellis Island, which at the time was just a small bar in Vegas. It later became a casino. It's still a shithole, I'm sure, but a place he never would go to. 

05:38
And that's when we met and he explained why I should work for him and I said well, here's why I shouldn't work for you. I said when we first met, you were a condescending asshole and I didn't appreciate it. So no, and he asked me to reconsider and I went home. I talked to my buddy, oscar, who was my best friend in life. He said he basically said to me you, out of your fucking mind, tell the guy you want 20,000 a game. Now I ain't got a pot to piss in. So I said are you crazy? He said, no, he'll give it to you. I said I'm not asking for 20,000 a game, but what I did ask for because he was yelling at me and he knew better than me I did ask for, uh, 12,000 cash to live on and 12,000 a game. This was for college football. 

06:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
By the way, how much were you betting before that? Just out of curiosity, I was getting 500 a game about to be a thousand. 

06:25 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, yeah, so slight upgrade, yeah, just a bit, uh, and so was that? 

06:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
was that risk or free roll? It was a total free roll. So you had 12 000 a game free roll total right, it gets better. 

06:38 - Alan Boston (Guest)
so I have a good story related that he, uh. So we meet next Sunday and this time we're going to the Sterling Brunch at Bally's, which is the original gourmet brunch in Vegas Absolutely beautiful. The maitre d' was a l'oreal. They no longer have maitre d's in Vegas because they cost money and they make you feel welcome, which is exactly what Vegas does not do. And this beautiful brunch where they serve expensive champagne and fresh squeezed juice, fresh brewed coffee at your table, like the place was nuts. They carve rack of lamb. It was like $70 in 1991. And uh, just epic. Anyway, I he brought his wife, uh, susan, his lovely wife, just amazing human. And uh, I told him here's what I want. He said what about 10? I said I'm not here to bargain. He said, okay, we got a deal. 

07:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And I recall so sorry you asked him for 12. 

07:30 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Right. He said what about 10? He couldn't help himself, you just jammed it in his face. 

07:34
He said no, no, I just said no, there's no bargaining here. I'm not a bargainer car dealership. And they, I said you just give me a price and I'm gonna say yes or no, and and don't, don't give me a dollar more than you, then you'll offer. Uh, because it's just that's just all bullshit. You know that. That's just anyway. That's the way the world works, but that's not how I work. 

07:57
I recall that I I went to old orchard beach, maine, every summer for many, many years and I remember my mother visiting that that that weekend I had like 20 bucks in my pocket and with three games on tv, which was unusual. That was a lot of games on tv, but the the three major networks all had a football game out at the same time and it turns out I had 12 000 on each of those games. And I'm thinking to myself like I got 20 bucks in my pocket and I got 12 000 each of these three games. What a world. This is right. You got to picture that scenario. I am dead broke, not a dollar to my name, and here I am. I got $12,000 a game on three games. I'm just starting. This is like a shit ton of money. How old were you at the time? 91, I'd be 33. 

08:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So 33, $12,000 a game which is the equivalent, and 12 grand was a lot more back then. That's what I was going to say. With inflation it's about 30,000 nowadays 30 dimes. 

08:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That much, wow It'd be tough to get down nowadays, that's for sure. 

08:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So then, how did it happen? 

08:57 - Alan Boston (Guest)
What were the? 

08:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
results there Alan. 

08:59 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That year went well until the bowl games. I remember I was up like 70-something thousand, which isn't great, going into bowl season and New Year's Day I went like 0-5. That's when they had all the bowl games on New Year's Day when they actually mattered, not when they just, you know, pick a team and throw them at a bowl game and have someone back it and there you go. But that you know. That's just the world we live in. And he called me and he told me a story of when he was. He got drunk one night at the horseshoe, lost a million dollars playing blackjack and had to wake up the next morning and face it. He said but you know I've recovered and you will too. And you know he gave me some actually good fatherly talk and I did recover, I did well with him and I worked with him for 15 years. 

09:45
And again we're in Old Orchard Beach, maine. I'm having dinner with a young lady actually, which might surprise some and she asked you know what's going on? I said I'm dreading this football season and she said do you need the money? I said well, yes, but no. And she said life is short. So I went home and throughout all the work I called Mr Walters up and he said, red, how you doing Ready for the football season? I said, well, that's why I'm calling and I told him you know, I don't think I can put the appropriate effort in to warrant what you're giving me. So thanks for your help. You've been awesome and let's stay in touch. Wow, I appreciate your honesty, red, and that was it now. 

10:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Later we later did some basketball together and, uh, briefly, and uh, that's where I was going to go with it. Uh, alan, because you're I don't want to say primarily known as a college basketball better nowadays, but you tweet a lot about college basketball especially. You've become known for your takes around um selection sunday, which we'll get into, and particularly how the committee selects teams, uh, to go into the tournament, who they're matched up against. But you, you, basically, you know we're mostly betting football at that time no, I was doing both the football, I, so it's all started. 

11:01 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Back in 1988. I, my house, got raided, which, but I knew they were coming, so I cleaned it out, ha ha, and I was working for a bookmaker, I was nobody. Why they were after me is beyond me, I don't know. But it was coke in the house and it could have got ugly, but luckily we had an in and they said you know, you better clean your house out. So I did. We did a little spring cleaning, and I foolishly went back there because I wanted to tape the McLaughlin group, which was a show I watched every week. And of course, here they come busting in and they searched the house. They found nothing. And it turned out, though, there was a little coke in a tire that I had left there. I'd it there for some reason, and I remember, when I was actually leaving, I tipped this tire over as whoops, like this could have been bad. It was just like it was less than it was less than a half a gram, but like that was a surprise anyway. Uh, so I I'm I'm charged with this nonsense. They took my racetrack programs out and some other stuff and they had nothing. I was nobody anyway, like they, I, you know. 

12:05
It turned out that I was friendly with a guy who was exchanging information with a state police officer and because of that this is what it was about, because I was seen with him they thought I was somebody. I was just a clerk. I was absolutely nobody. I was a clerk working for 300 a week, just uh. You know, it was fun and I was good at it. It was the old days when you called on the phone and you ran the line down. 

12:31
But the trial came and I hired a lawyer and the judge was Judge Zovell, who later became famous because he was in this uh, shaken baby trial with his nanny, shook a baby and killed it, and and and he was the judge and I said it's judge zovell. But I remember this epic. I remember I thought this guy was really smart, because sometimes it's the little things in life that are that are really cool. And uh, the trial was scheduled for j 14th and we had the pretrial thing and he said I'm going to change it from June 14th flag day to the more ominous July 14th, bastille day. So anyway, I got a charge on it. I was, like, this guy's pretty smart to come up with that off the top of his head and the case was dismissed and later I was told get out of here, they're going to plant evidence on you. They want you. 

13:32
So I had a friend in Vegas who I didn't know well. I knew him from the poker tournaments that I used to fly out there for and he said why don't you come to Vegas? We'll make money. I said, why don't you come to Vegas? We'll make money. I was like a surrogate son. He didn't have a kid and I was like, as a kid he didn't have and we were family. I didn't know him that well. I knew we had a lot of money, so I wasn't going to go out there cold. 

13:55
So I spent that summer developing power ratings on football teams. I was just winging it, right and that. So I created original numbers. Then I bought a sporting news and tweaked the numbers based on you know who was coming back. And the first week of football comes and I told the starters opens their line at six o'clock on sunday. Here's what I made these eight games. You know. If you feel like giving it a shot here, because this is what I wanted to do, I didn't. I didn't know what he had planned for me about making money. What's's making money mean? I don't know what it means. And I remember one of the games was Illinois at Washington State and I made a pick and he bet Washington State plus six. The lines were a little softer then and the game closed pick, by the way but every game moved my way. So the next week I'm driving out there and I'm stopping in Chicago and stayed at a friend's place and his buddy had a computer and he knew how to get on the computer and see what the lines were. 

14:52
This was really advanced in 1989. This was, you know, this is how far we've come, how fast and how far it's come. Even when the internet was kind of new in the early 2000s, you could see it's just, you's just gone haywire. So if people don't think that artificial intelligence is going to be a thing, then they're completely nuts, because it's just like an upwards slant If you do a curve at how fast it's going, and now it's just going to amp up even more because it's so much more advanced. Advanced leads to extra advanced, et cetera, et cetera. Anyway, again, all the lines moved my way that week. So we had something and in fact he was giving me 200 a game and by november I was up 7200. So I'm clearly have some talent for this right. 

15:36
So that segued into college basketball, which I always found interesting and developed a love for it at uh upenn where I went to school the palestra just a great thing. There was a little column in the new york daily news called the latest line. Guy named jim mccarthy jr wrote it and he published it every day in the new york daily news. There were these little alliterative blurbs on who he picked in these basketball games. And I was aware that there were basketball moves by the so-called wise guys. And remember, this is the 1980s you could barely get a score in a game. You wouldn't know that because you're too young, but old fuckers like me are well aware that that you know trying to tilt your radio so you can listen to a baseball game or get a score from the west coast. 

16:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was such a different world you know, alan, I'm born in the mid 80s and in the early 90s. To check scores, I would I put on one tv station where the you'd see the scores for the each game cycle through, and if you missed your favorite team, it would actually take like 10 minutes for that team to come back around again. 

16:31 - Alan Boston (Guest)
So that was already advanced. That was already advanced compared to the 80s. We couldn't get a score. Sometimes you couldn't get a final two two days later it was. 

16:40
So I'm in a different, I'm at 10 in the late seventies and I'm thinking like, and this is when you couldn't get anything Like how do these guys know who's going to win? You know you live in Maine and you're you're picking the winner of Wichita state crate, and like, how the hell do you know? And I was totally intrigued how do these guys know? And then in the early eighties I read if anyone wants to check it out, and the first two pages of that book is this guy who took this like medic influx of phone calls and with information from all around the country. He had this network of people feeding him information and he took all this information and he fed it into, let's say, his internal database to sound modern, and he winged out the winners. And I said you know what? I want to be that guy someday. 

17:23
And I think in that aspect I've succeeded. I kind of think I'm a failure in life, but in that aspect I did well. So that's it. That's how I started. It turned out that the power ratings I created the way I did. It was completely flawed originally. I got lucky. I ran good there. 

17:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The lines were moving your way, you said though I know. 

17:46 - Alan Boston (Guest)
But no, my approach to creating the power ratings was all wrong. Got it. What turned out was all right, so I got lucky. I also had really good instinct, like, for some reason, the instinct part of my brain for logic which may have got developed by going to games at the Fluster and understanding what the point spread was. That may have been developed there. 

18:11
There might have been some foundation for why, when I'm really good at this, I see things very, very clearly. The picture is clear. It's all a logic problem and you pick out maybe an 8-0 run that the team made with 10 minutes to go as the do all end, all Like. You just find stuff that's completely different than what a programmer would do, but it's all just logic and if logic's correct it's irrefutable Right. So when I'm good, I really see things in a very special way and but you have to have that foundation to develop that and for some reason, which I don't know, that part of my brain works very well. I'm a complete fucking idiot in a lot of ways, but that part I'm good at Interesting. So there you are. That's kind of the brief history of my beginnings and middlings. 

18:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, and I got to ask. So listen, you've obviously been in this game for a long time. 

19:05 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yes, thanks for reminding me. 

19:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Have you ever had another job, or has it always been income from betting? 

19:13 - Alan Boston (Guest)
When I got out of college, I worked at a mental institution. I was hoping to be a counselor. School wasn't for me. I probably shouldn't have even gone to college. 

19:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, once you started working with Billy Walters and then, after you had that Well, no, it was from the mental institution. 

19:29 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I ended up getting in trouble. I owed bookmakers money and I went out of town. I stayed with a friend who I met at Penn. I lived on the Upper East Side. It was great, I didn't have a dollar in my pocket. I'm living on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. 

19:40
Okay, I worked at Hammock and Schlemmer for Christmas season and they asked me to continue. It was a gadget store on the fifth floor. I worked on the fifth floor. It's an old gadget store. It's very famous. They used to have a catalog that was on airplanes. They had the original Mr Coffee. 

19:55
But I had a knack for selling because basically it's just telling the truth. Knowing what you're selling and telling the truth, that's what works. People think bullshit works, but it's actually. Truth always wins and that's why these mother-of-pears in office will be found. All the COVID shit coming out now is crazy, but I digress again. 

20:19
So from there I got a call from one of the guys I owe money to. He said why don't you just come back here? Nothing's going to happen. You know you work, your work, your debt off. And I said OK, and I started working for Howie Levinson, who was a bookmaker in Boston. I can say his name now because it's 40 something years ago and he ended up in the witness protection program anyway and I worked for various guys in Boston until the raid happened, and guys in Boston until the raid happened. And then I went to Vegas, started with my friend Jeff and worked for someone else in the middle and then Mr Walters made me a deal I couldn't refuse, which is what he does, and I spent 15 years with him and I did basketball on my own. He wanted me to do basketball with him, but I like doing it on my own. So sometimes money isn't everything, sometimes it's more fun, just, you know, doing it yourself. 

21:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So how many years have you been sustaining your life, just like living expenses, off betting income? 

21:17 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Well, since then, so that's 89 to now. So what's the math? 11, 31, 35 years. 

21:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So 35 years have you been, 35 years old? 

21:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You said you were born in the 80s. So yeah, I don't know. No, I'm born in the 80s. I'm in my late 30s. Johnny's a little bit younger than 30. 

21:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I am not 35 years old no. And also I did. 

21:37 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Johnny, how come it says Zach Phillips in my lower left corner. 

21:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's our producer, that's zach. 

21:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Zach is certainly not 35. Zach is even younger than that. Yeah, all right, hi zach. Uh, I can confidently say that, even though rob is 35, that none of us know what the original mr coffee is no no, oh shit, sorry about that. You know what that is oh it's the original curing. 

21:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, the original curing. Okay, it was pretty curious. 

22:02 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yes, except it brewed it, but yeah, got it. It was original coffee brewing but it was revolutionary at the time well, I like all you know the world the world is completely different now. Like once, technology rules it. Just like I said, it just amps up 100 miles an hour. 

22:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So let's pick that up from a sports betting time, time, time. 

22:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
One more thing you're working with Billy Walters. I want to get in the history here. Did you listen to Billy Walters' interview on the Joe Rogan podcast over the last couple of weeks. Yeah, I thought it was terrible. Yeah, so what did you? 

22:29 - Alan Boston (Guest)
do. I thought the part about the prison stuff was amazing, but prior to that I didn't think it was very good. What I found interesting was Joe Rogan almost seemed to be an R of him, which is not his typical demeanor right. 

22:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That that that's that's the take I had on it. Yeah, yeah, definitely. I didn't think it was a great interview. 

22:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I, I didn't think, I didn't and I won't tell him that I don't want to get mad, but uh, well, well, yeah, I think part of like he's gonna hear this now because he listens to this show. 

22:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, he's listening but, but you know what a great interview is it's. It's twofold, right, because it it takes the interviewer and the interviewee. Uh, because I listened to that that myself as well, and I think part of the challenge with listening to that was I actually like joe rogan. I think he puts out some great content generally I do too. However, it seemed like he just didn't have the subject matter expertise to really go in on. On billy in that and there's a lot of things billy said where I, like someone in the sports betting space, would have picked up on and it's okay, I gotta dig in here. And joe, just like he, there was a lot of woe, a lot of woeing, whoa, whoa, like it's like billy's just saying he puts out numbers on every game. It's not something to be super excited about, joe, like everyone does, that I just wowed that he spends a million in r&D. 

23:43
Yeah, exactly A million in R&D. I mean there's a lot of bettors that do that nowadays. So yeah, I thought it was more on Joe's side, I'm not saying Billy's agreeable. 

23:51 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I agree with that. I agree with that. Yeah, that's why I mentioned that he seemed almost in awe, Like he kind of lost the method. What do you think? 

24:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's usually a great interviewer. It's like a very chill discussion. I don't watch a lot of his stuff. You think Walter still wins, right? 

24:08 - Alan Boston (Guest)
now you think he still wins right now? Absolutely, he wouldn't do it if he didn't. He's very smart and you know he's not the. He clearly was a street guy when younger. But if you read his book you realize how driven he's been, like almost from the get-go, and I've kind of always had a sense that that was him. But I thought his being driven, sometimes maybe gotten away a little bit I don't even think he'd agree with me on that, uh. But yeah, no, he's triple smart. Like in a lot of the stuff he did to to try to get people off his back, which was his best approach long term to winning, was just genius and really revolutionized the industry in that. In that way, in in moving money, he revolutionized the industry and obviously he was clearly the original computer guy who also in a lot of ways revolutionized the industry and who likely will get voted into the sports betting hall of. He certainly has my vote. 

25:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, billy's much more public now. He appeared at Bet Bash last year, did a one-on-one with Spanky at that time. Obviously he did the Joe Rogan pod more recently. Do you think that he's fully truthful in the stuff that he puts out there or do you think some of it's to garner attention? Here's an example, right. So in the Joe Rogan pod he mentioned that he made a huge bet on one of the Super Bowls I think it was Colt Saints where he thought the line was seven points off. And I bring that up because a traditional, even like professional sports better nowadays would hear something like that and they'd be like this is insane that someone thinks that the Super Bowl line is seven points off. 

25:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, for those who were listening, it was the colt saints, where saints were plus seven. They ended up winning, and then he claimed on rogan podcast that he made the saints a favorite. 

25:53 - Alan Boston (Guest)
So that will give no, he made. He said it was picked. He made a pick, made a pick, sorry, made a pick, so seven points, and yeah, that's insane, but I I believe right, 100 believe me. There's no reason to lie about that. He could just say he had one or two. It's still way off and and ridiculous. I I think, no, I believe him. Interesting, I'm not so sure. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I I think I think he's truthful. 

26:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He has no reason to lie like not now, yeah, I'm not suggesting that he does, I just found it interesting. Like, honestly, I just found it interesting. Yeah, no, that seems almost unbelievable. 

26:26 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Right, yeah, but I think the Super Bowl perhaps there was a time where a lot of those Super Bowls were complete blowouts and the lines weren't as good, and they were publicly. You know, the public money was mostly on favorites and the Super Bowl has some public influence. No other sport has Like. Has some public influence. No other sport has Like. No, no. Anyone who thinks the public influence is the Lions is an idiot. They have zero influence on the Lions. Zero, not even .001% Maybe. 

26:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Super Bowl. That is largely true. I will say that is largely true? 

26:57 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Not largely true, it's objectively true, like 100% true that is true .01%. 

27:03
Maybe I'm exaggerating, but in the NCAA tournament, I think you know, maybe certain singular institutions, maybe the Hilton, takes a big bet from a square and moves the line a half a point. That would be the extent of the public having an influence on a line. But as far as a market line, the public has zero influence at all times. That is objectively true. They don't care what the public does, nevermind, most people just copy lines anyway. So you know. But that's why the NCAA tournament was always a good gamble. 

27:37
But anyway, back then, when favorites were crushing in the Super Bowl and there was a period of time where it was just a blow it off, the blow it off, the blow it I don't remember when I'm not really an NFL guy they may have jacked the lineup a little bit and maybe maybe the Colts came in you know on a hot streak and the Saints came in, you know struggling. I don't remember the game and I probably didn't even watch it, but that's that makes it possible that it was way off I mean this perception that the cults were just way better. 

28:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The only reason it's it's that that specific comment is of interest to me is because nowadays, if, if, like, a recreational better went on twitter as an example and posted something like that, right, I think this super bowl line should be, uh, this team that's a seven point underdog should be a pick them in the game. The entire sharp betting community on twitter would just go after that person, right, like you're insane. There's no way that this could possibly be uh, correct. Yet billy comes out and says it, and then there's, it's hush, it's quiet, right, and that I, I mean I get. 

28:36 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Why is what you're calling about yeah, I'm just, I'm it's a legit question. 

28:40
Yeah, it seems a bit far-fetched, but there are anomalies and and and and the fact that he said it and maybe he had it won, so maybe he just stretched the point a little bit. I don't think so, though he has no upside in saying that he had it four. What does he gain by that? He's doing it as a favor. I think he's trying to do good in the world now and you know, and maybe trying to help the sports betting industry a little bit, which it needs a lot of help. It's probably not salvageable because once government's involved, things get fucked up. And anyway, yeah, so I believe he had a pick. 

29:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, you mentioned several times since we started so far about how things are very different now than they were back in the day and the emergence of technology In terms of your overall process as a handicapper. I know you may still do things with pen and paper, maybe not. I'll let you clarify. Right now it looks like you might be reaching for a pen and paper. This is like the Eddie. 

29:42 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Wolf. So here's how I've evolved. I used to have two three ring binders. Now I got one. So I I have evolved, but you, but you're still comfortable, but it didn't work, all right are you? 

29:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no, no, it's wait. Is that? 

29:54 - Alan Boston (Guest)
is that handwritten or printed out and stuff and written all handwritten I do print the schedules out, though, oh, but I hand write my line on there. 

30:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wow it. Some would say cheating. I would say I mean listen. If anyone who's younger anyone who's younger listening to this podcast, you'll probably agree with me. But I haven't written anything on a paper in. It's got to be years. I mean, obviously, sign a thing. I'm not saying write down a little thing, a note, if you need to write a number down, or you're from a different world. 

30:24 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I have, I have. I don't even know what. I wouldn't even know how to use a spreadsheet. Know what I care? It would just confuse me. 

30:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I have never I use the right term spreadsheet. 

30:32 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I think that's what maybe is well, that's all just a computer. 

30:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So that that's kind of like. Where I'm getting to here, alan, is that obviously technology drives a lot of betting nowadays right, and some of the biggest betting groups in the world syndicates and whatever a lot of the stuff that they do is automated betting. A lot of it is sophisticated models that they're building out. How do you maintain your edge over so many years when you're dealing with that level of and this is not to demean your style of betting and say it's not sophisticated. That's not what I'm getting at. 

31:07 - Alan Boston (Guest)
No, it's fine, I get it. Ask away. You can call me a moron, I'll defend myself. 

31:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's fine. I don't think you're a moron If. 

31:15 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I did, I would call you a moron. I know, I'm just saying I'm making a point. 

31:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's fine, ask whatever you want, and the point is, how do you maintain your edge over time when you're dealing with that much more of a competitive market nowadays? 

31:26 - Alan Boston (Guest)
So clearly, whatever I came up with back in the day works, whatever my process is, that goes on in my pea brain. Here it ends up right, and I took no pride in doing any of this this year under very dire circumstances, probably been the best work I've ever done. Why I? I can't tell you I I've the fundamentals of what I do have not really changed. There's there's a fundamental process to arriving at what a power rating is, what how good a team is, and as soon as you arrive at how good that team is, it's probably not going to change much, nor should it change much. If it does, you're doing something wrong. So that part has always stayed the same. It's the little tweaks that I've tried to evolve. It's the little tweaks to that fundamentals that I've changed with over the years, tweaks to that fundamentals that that I've I've changed with over the years. 

32:28
And and actually one of the tweaks was home advantage, which dropped significantly from the 80s, 90s, 80s, especially 90s, especially early 2000s, and then became almost negligible and uh and I remember that it was around 2000,. I want to say 16 or 17 that I wasn't doing well. And I noticed I was betting all home teams and okay, I must have home advantages too high. So I I chopped them from. I used to give four non-conference, three conference and for longer travels a little more, shorter travels a little less. I always think travel was the main component of what the home advantage actually is. Yeah, if you're traveling 10 minutes from your home arena to an opponent's arena, I don't think the home advantage meant much. I don't think fans screaming for a team means that much. 

33:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think it's comfort and that's why it's dropped over the years is just because travel's been streamlined. 

33:21 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That's what I yeah that's what I felt, and and so why has the home advantage dropped a lot Like all right. So back when I was a kid, athletes played football in the fall, hockey in the winter, baseball in the spring and whatever in the summer. There were many sports each year that evolved into kids picking a sport and playing it 365 days a year. So when you play basketball, you have aau travel teams and you have all this other stuff that you you can play on 365 days a year. And when I went to an aau tournament, vegas, the team that won played nine games in five days. Okay, well, that's, there's the light bulb. Why are these home advantages going down? Because these kids are used to playing multiple games away from home, in front of hostile crowds or in front of whatever. It's nothing to them, it's easy for them, they've got comfortable with it. Also, basketball players wouldn't have dreamed of going to the gym when I was younger. That clearly is no longer the case. The gym is extremely relevant and extremely important, and they're a bit more athletic and far more fit. So again, the rigors of travel or playing in a tough arena or playing multiple games in a row is not as relevant. Even playing at altitude isn't as relevant. That used to be a humongous home advantage when going to Denver or Colorado State or, you know, boise or any of these teams that play at altitude. New Mexico actually plays at altitude. You would have to give an extra home for that. That is no longer the case. It's still slightly the case, but not like it once was. 

34:59
This is my opinion. I don't have computer programs to run all this and prove it, but I'm probably close to right. Strangely so I dropped all the power ratings like almost in half and I started winning again. I was ready to quit. I also when they, when they shorten the shot clock to 30 seconds. I had this. 

35:20
It very, it's all very simple really. Like in a high possession-possession game, the 30-second, you know, a low-possession game, the 30-second clock makes for more possessions. So a high game, 14 is probably a little higher because the position's a little longer and that 14-point edge probably extends a little bit more. And if the team still tries to grind it out in the half court, 14 still is a little less. So I had that in the back of my mind. 

35:50
Careful about, you know, it's very simple. Careful about laying points in a low-scoring game, like any moron would know that that's right, except this moron didn't. I just made a number and winged it, and so I incorporated that a little bit too, and those two things flipped the switch and all of a sudden the bad year became pretty good and I ended up winning like a little bit for the year and I continued doing it and I remember I was all done with this because I so I did really well for a long time, well enough to build my own home in Vegas. I had $80 in my pocket when I got to Vegas. Eventually, I lived in a $3.1 million home and drove a Ferrari. 

36:31
So I did something right, right, I'm not bragging. 

36:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've heard the story about you having a good week once and just buying a Ferrari. 

36:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I did that. We bought it on eBay. You bought it on eBay. 

36:41 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, yeah, we bargained them down, and I might have used a different word, but we bargained them down and the Ferrari came three days later. I remember it showed up. I said I can't get this fucking car. It's too nice. I was afraid to drive it. How much did you pay for it? $62,500, I think, and he threw in the shipping $63,000. I remember I wired him the money. I didn't know how to do that. My friend did all. He went on ebay. So what about this one? Well, he was. He was an insurance adjuster, so we actually knew the value of it and we got a good price was 1995, 348, spider yellow, with a black rag top. I put my own uh sound system in it, a tweeter etc. Which I think is out of business now. Uh, amazing sound system was awesome yeah the car. 

37:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The car was sick. No idea what that is, Rob. 

37:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I remember the sound systems back in the day. You deck it out in the trunk. I assume that's what happened? 

37:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The trunk was the front Right, right. Yes, good point. So what happened to the big house in the Ferrari? We'd love to know. 

37:41 - Alan Boston (Guest)
So if you make $100,000 a year, you're probably doing okay, and except when you're spending $400,000. That's fair. 

37:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That is true. 

37:55 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I am a spent thrift. There's nothing I wouldn't pay for. There's nothing I wouldn't do. I didn't care, I just assumed I'd have all the money. I never cared about saving money. I don't have a wife and kids, nor did I ever want them, nor do I think they're useful, but I think people have kids for the wrong reasons. A wife clearly can be useful. That's silly to say that, and I'm sure all the people who write on the comments, oh, what kind of fucking idiot is this guy? What does he owe? You know that's, that's. That's the trolling, right? Anyway, don't take it literally. Geniuses. 

38:25
Yeah, I wasn't taking it literally no, not you, the trollers. 

38:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay. 

38:29 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anyway, yes, I, I had a great day as well. 

38:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
She passed away a couple years ago, but I stand by the best breed of dog yeah, no, there's nothing like it sorry to side rail the conversation I I saw a dog walk in the background there a little bit earlier as well yeah, that's my buddy's dog. 

38:59 - Alan Boston (Guest)
yeah, I'm watching his dogs for a bit. That's gravy, he's a beastler, A beastler yeah, you know, a vet killed my last name. She was 13 and a half, but she was good. 

39:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, she was good. That's like 99th percentile life for a great date in 13 and a half. 

39:21 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, 8.3 is the average. But you know, if you, if you give them, the most important thing is food actually. You know, love obviously, and and but food food is so underrated and there's so much crap that sold there that people are like this blue Buffalo that they they thinks to do all end all it's it's garbage, like there's there's way dogs and you should give them great food I'm sorry I sidetracked you from from um. Yeah, I know but you got into great danes and great things are amazing. 

39:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like there's nothing, like that's nothing, like a day nothing they're agreed, incredible. 

39:52 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Uh, the first thing I got was my roommate wanted a dog and and, uh, a poker player, his friend, had a, uh, a dog that he had to get rid of. And we went, saw it it was a great dame I knew nothing about great danes and uh, so we took him and uh, yeah, that was that was. You know. The couch became his. I'm sure, yeah, it was his or hers. Yeah, uh, yeah, they're just, uh emotional and and you know, you read about the most intelligent dogs and they're not listed. I find that hard to believe. Like my dane told me everything that she wanted the second one and, and he told me everything he wanted. And they let you know when things ain't right, they let you know when they want you know they, they let you know they're not stupid anyway, uh, yeah, they're. They're incredible. Like as scary as they are. That's how loving they are. It's like the total opposite, which makes sense. Like nature wouldn't have some big thing, like elephants are incredible, whales are incredible, brilliant and loving and emotional. And Danes fit that mold. It's just. And everyone says they don't live that long. 

40:58
Yeah, well, she was 13 and a half and if the vet didn't take this growth out that shouldn't have been touched. Who knows how long she'd live. She was extremely healthy. It didn't have anything wrong with her. She responded well to acupuncture. When she had some hit trouble, I put her on acupuncture and I went that route instead of the Western medicine. But anyway, danes are incredible and you know, if I leave money it will be to a Great Dane rescue. So yeah, now where were we? Yeah, I didn't cry. At least that was pretty good. 

41:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, I could see you were getting a little bit emotional, but I wanted to let you Listen. I have the same experience. We will move on from the dog conversation. I know Johnny's not a dog owner. 

41:39 - Alan Boston (Guest)
If you see the movie, the best of it that I was in, bella, was in that movie my Great Dane, my second Great Dane Interesting the first Great Dane was in the Outside the Lines that I did for ESPN, which they completely butchered. I called them and threatened them, actually after it was over. 

41:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What did you say? 

41:57 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I gave them this three-hour interview that they'll never get anything better than that. I gave them a very heartfelt interview and in fact, day two of it, I lost every game in the ncaa tournament. That day they're there for the ncaa tournament. I lost like every game and they asked me like you know and I I. They asked me like well, you don't seem to care. I said no, it was a bad day, I'll get on tomorrow. I went over every game why I liked it and why I was wrong. Like that's good shit, like you're not going to hear that anywhere and we'll get into that too, I'm sure. Like there's no good at least that I've seen there's no good people conveying any good information on the Internet. The sports bettors, like the Sports Action Network is a fucking joke, absolute travesty. But and if they're buddies of yours, sorry, no, no, no no, no, listen your words, not mine. 

42:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I, I, what the bit listen. I'll just throw it out there right now. The most highly viewed video we've ever done on on our channel was me and Johnny reacting to someone from the Action Network talking about the betting syndicate that they're a part of. As we were reacting to it, it's very clear the guy had absolutely no idea what he was talking about, nor does he actually, you know, exist as part of a true betting syndicate, but I still, to this day, that sounds about right. 

43:18
The comments on that video are people who find our content and are like, oh, these two hosts are out to lunch, you know, but hit piece on this guy or whatever, and you know I I try to process that and it's just like people are searching for sports betting content. 98 of bettors are losing and they're feeding the masses betting content and it just like perpetuates these losses and these like horrible mentalities in the reverse line movement and it's like no, for the average person, there's just no way to get out of it. For the person that really wants to learn, they're kind of just stuck trying to parse through all of this information that's horrendous and like where does a new, better start? Because if they go to Google they're going to get delivered a bunch of shit. They can go try on YouTube or whatever, but all the stuff that's getting the most views is probably going to be detrimental to the better. 

44:07 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Exactly right, that's what I meant. There's no good content out there. 

44:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's a travesty, well you mentioned, the public doesn't influence the stuff. If you go search for, like, how to bet online right now, just as a fresh better, the majority of the things you're going to get are about how you got to fade the public, reverse line movement stuff like that, and obviously I agree with you largely that that stuff means nothing and in fact will be a negative if you're actually trying to bet for real. 

44:30 - Alan Boston (Guest)
It may mean something. I don't know. I don't. I, I'm, I'm in the minority and I don't know. I don't remember spanking. I got into this. That I don't think closing line means means that much. 

44:39
I'm one of the only so-called smart guys that would say that why not? Well, I only do college basketball. It's possible in other sports. So the idea this is something I've actually posted on Twitter several times the goal of a sports bettor is to hide what they're doing. Mr Walters taught me that for sure he tries to hide what they're doing. Mr Walters taught me that for sure he tries to hide what he does. 

45:13
You don't want your bets to be reflected on the screen or in the market. So if you can bet the wrong way where people look and the right way where they don't look, you've succeeded. You've succeeded in ways that are unimaginable, because it's almost impossible in today's world to do that. So anyone that gets on Twitter and starts bragging about they laid three and the game's now five are full of shit because the idea is to lay three and have the game close three. That's what you dream of. You don't want anyone knowing anything. 

45:38
You don't want your line to influence what the closing line is so. So, in fact, if the closing line in basketball is the do-all, end-all, which which people would think it is, then they've all gone wrong. But and I think I think, the people who influence the closing line in basketball I'm getting to the final point here that don't make sense. If nothing made sense before, which is possible because my mind's going like 10,000 miles an hour, anyway, the closing line, I believe, is influenced highly by people who aren't that good. So therefore, it can't be that good, because the idea, if you're really good, is to hide it. 

46:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, However okay, I'd love to get into this topic even more now. There's so many things that you said there that I find really interesting a lot, of, a lot of good that's good, well, well, your um. 

46:34
It seems, though, most of the your complaint around the closing line is more centered on let me call it, operations. Right, you were, for for a long time you worked under the best where he's trying to fill enormous positions, where he had to manipulate the lines to do so. Right, fake one way. Come back on the other side. Uh, try to keep things as quiet as possible. I've heard all sorts of stuff about billy um, in some cases like just betting the wrong side just to keep, you know, bookmakers off the scent, but nowadays the market is so much more competitive, as you can probably attest to, in, that there's like some of that's impossible now nowadays. Right, I mean, we try. I think he still hides it very well. 

47:16 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I'm just guessing. I haven't talked to him about it. I don't even know if he's still betting, but if he is, he's hiding it. 100 he's hiding it and if it's getting out, it's not getting out like it once did. The issue he had is he won. He won at such a high rate back in the day that he'd lay two in the game with close seven in in any in basketball and football, like it was nuts. And it dawned on him that if this continues, there's no bookmakers left. Because he won at such a high rate, you could lay five on games he laid two on and went. It dawned on him that if this continues, there's no bookmakers left Because he won at such a high rate. You could lay five on games he laid two on and win, and bookmakers some of them weren't smart enough to go 2-5 when he bet, like just go 2-6 or whatever. So you've got to put a stop to that or else you're not going to have any bookmakers left and people are going to benefit from his work. So now you start getting both sides of the fence multiple ways, you send different things to different people and you hide it as best you can. Uh, he. 

48:11
He started and I can attest this because I watched this is for college basketball. I don't know about the other sports that he may have been involved with. So even me, like I, I learned from it. When I did it on my own and my partner and I were betting real big, I would bet the opposite side to try to knock it down a half a point or a point, and then I couldn't hide at all because I didn't have the sources he had and I was betting a lot. But it would just go back to what initially it was. So if I was looking to lay three in a game it was two and a half I'd try to knock it down to two. If I was looking to lay a three in a game it was two and a half I tried to knock it down to two. Or if it was three, I'd knock it down to two and a half so I could buy two. And then when I laid it it would go back to the original number. 

48:51
So I didn't touch the market at all. I, I bet it one way and then the other, and I, you know, I was nothing, I was just a customer who bet and the game moved to half a point, half a point. They didn't know me from Adam. I was a number on a Chris account or a Grande account or whatever you know. They may have known I won, but they didn't care. Just they move it a half a point and be happy. 

49:09
It's not like I had a following. Mr Walters has a following and people would dine to find out who's doing. No one gave a shit what I did and, quite frankly, I wouldn't tell anyone anyway. So you know I would, I would. I would make sure that my bets didn't affect the market. Even I remember this Arkansas-Auburn game that I absolutely loved, arkansas minus two, and I bet a lot of money on it. And then the game went back to two. 

49:34
And now, you know, the morning people would bet and then I would bet around 11 am Pacific, 1 am Pacific, actually, 1 pm Pacific, because I had a bet performance, mr Walters' bet which was, you know, three o'clock-ish when the market was super big. So now you know I lay two of the games, two and a half, and now it goes back to two. Now I know what's up. That's Mr Walters sending it up so he can lay two. 

49:58
Now the difference between now and then is, I would not go and lay that two back anywhere. He spent the money to get it back to two and now I could lay two there and take back five at night, and I know that. But out of respect for him trying to do his work, I'm not touching the game. I got enough on it. I don't need to be greedy and there was a respect in the industry that is not here anymore. These whores now they, you know, chris opens a line for $250, they'll bet it three times, you know, because they think someone else will get it Instead of betting the wrong way. They bet the right way. They're just silly and don't look at big pictures and have no respect for other people in the industry. But back then I wouldn't touch that minus two, not bragging, it's just the way it was so. 

50:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a challenge, though, alan, nowadays, because it's basically getting to become a race to bet earlier, and this is not across college basketball, it's across like every major sport at this point where, okay, you're getting down a certain amount and now someone starts to undercut you by betting earlier you, the better. That was getting down a certain amount. A lot of times, they don't have a recourse anymore other than just to try to to beat, to get like. What's the solution is? Is there even a solution to where this this ends up changing and going back to the way it was, or is this just here to stay at this point? 

51:15 - Alan Boston (Guest)
no, you'd have to. I don't know. I'm not in the loop at all, like I don't know what these people are even thinking there's a crew that bets basketball at night that moves the lines like a point and a half, two points. I mean what are you crazy? You certainly don't have to do that. You certainly can figure out a way to wait At midnight. No one's betting at midnight. Even if you bet the following morning or if you bet the wrong way at night and come back the next morning, there's not a lot of people influencing this basketball line and in fact, all the best bet very, very late. I'm doing everything on my own very small scale and I influence nothing. So I'm in Connecticut, I have DraftKings and FanDuel and, most recently, Fanatics, which I'm no longer doing because they cut me down to $50 or something and reneged on the promotion that they had, which I'll be calling Game and Control about. 

52:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've never done that before, but I'm really something needs. Oh, you're irked about this one. What was that? What happened? What's the story? 

52:09 - Alan Boston (Guest)
so this, uh, my buddy, uh, alerts me to fanatics. They have this thousand dollar promotion. You put a thousand. Now the big time sports betters depositing a thousand fucking dollars. All right, I'm a real genius. Thousand dollars, i,000 I'm putting on there. If you put $1,000 on there and you make a $100 bet 10 days in a row, you get 10 bets for $100 free, win or lose. All right, I'll do that. And it's another place to bet. 

52:34
Well, unfortunately for them and unfortunately for me, it turns out within five days that $1,000 was five, which is crazy. Like I won every bet I made on there. And the one thing I fucked up was they opened eastern kentucky, six against, uh, jacksonville and draft kings opened at eight. Well, what am I gonna do? I'm gonna. So I bet 500 both ways. Like I had no opinion, I made it six and a half. I think I had an opinion when it got to eight and a half, but I laid six and took eight for 500 each, but unfortunately they had the six and the game closed eight and a half. 

53:09
And that's a red flag to these morons. Instead of saying, oh, this guy knows what he's doing, let's take a bet and move the line. They don't know how to do that. They use this European model that's completely flawed and will break all these places ultimately, because the smart guys are still going to get their money down somehow. And so, day six, I can now bet $100 and 50 on some games. All right, well, I'm done betting, but I still want my free bet. 

53:37
They didn't let me opt in for the sixth or seventh day I forget what it was for my $100. So they reneged on the deal that I. I entered a contract with them. It says you agree to these terms and agreements. Check. So I am going to Game of Control because these people, like FanDuel's, done shit here that you can't even imagine. I'm not going to get into it because it's getting away from what we need to be, but know that these companies take advantage of of of squares and and wise guys, if they can, smart guys, whatever word you want to use. So they really need. Someone really needs to take a stand against these people. So, in my little way, for my a hundred dollars that I didn't get, that I don't care about, but it's more about honor and and and you can't just fuck someone over because you feel like it. 

54:21
I'm going to work a quick Because you paid off some politician to get your license. 

54:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to work a quick little promo in here just because it's a really good time to do so. 

54:28
But Johnny's wearing the Pinnacle hat, I'm wearing the Pinnacle shirt. It's one of the reasons that we're extremely proud to have Pinnacle as a sponsor, because this kind of stuff does not happen at Pinnacle. They have posted limits for Whatever the max is for myself, it's the same for Alan, it's the same for Johnny. You can bet that amount without issue. They're not cutting your bets down to nothing. It's a real bookmaking operation where they take bets and they move the lines based off of action. So if you're in Canada, make sure you check out Pinnacle Sportsbook. Use code HAMMER to do so. If you do sign up, highly recommend it. Great product Treats everybody fairly. Thank product treats everybody fairly. Thank you very much for that, alan. You just teed it up for me. 

55:06 - Alan Boston (Guest)
It's really quick, easy for me. Well, I can, I can actually follow that up for you. So back in, uh, 2001, we could all bet pinnacle. I think it was 1999 or 2000. I, uh, they put up, uh, they put up match-ups for the world series of poker. Okay, I think it was the year 2000. 

55:22
So I'm on the phone and and I ended up talking to the guy who runs pinnacle I, I don't know, it was henry or uh, or jimmy one, it was one of the two, I think those were their names and we started talking about how they came up with all this and their model was absolutely brilliant. Everyone loved pinnacle because they, you know, they had like eight cent lines and they had almost no juice on everything. And, like you said, here's what you can bet and that's it. And everyone had the same thing. But they actually he explained to me his whole process. You know we talked about the matchups for World Series of Poker. They're taking $500, but it was, you know, it was fantastic. It's a way to generate interest in your, in your thing. 

56:05
And he was telling me that, like in college basketball, when I bet there they move like haywire. But let's say I bet a tennis match, they might not move it at all. So they had. They had an algorithm, I think it's called, where every customer was rated by how they've done and based on how they're rated. That's how the computer would move the line how they've done and based on how they're rated, that's how the computer would move the line. It was absolutely genius. 

56:29
And he was telling me they have these college kids who bet college basketball. He said I can open anything because they bet $50 a game and I can move it, sometimes two points, because these kids won at such a high rate $50, move it two points because they won. What a novel idea. Someone knows what they're doing. You move the line when they bet, right? You might want to explain that to DraftKings fans or actually almost any book that has no clue. Yeah, so Pinnacle was the best place to bet back in the day and you know I'm not with them anymore, but if they followed that what they were doing 20 years ago and there's no reason they don't because it's successful- then they probably still have the best place to bet. 

57:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So there you go. Thank you, a positive word from me. How novel, yeah I would. I wouldn't say it's rare, but it's okay, it's. It's not as, uh, as common as the negative. Uh well, I want to get into that stuff as well, really quickly. I just want to follow up on the closing line, value stuff, because okay yeah, that's where we were right okay. 

57:21
Okay, so let me pose a hypothetical to you. You got two betters 1,000 game sample in college basketball each. They both finish at zero units. Neither of them wins, neither of them loses. Exact same record zero units. One guy has no closing line value, one guy has 3% closing line value. Do you consider those to be the same better? 

57:48 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Well, based on the fact that I think closing line value, do you consider those to? 

57:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
be the same better. 

57:50 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Well, based on the fact that I think closing line doesn't mean anything, yeah, like if let's, let's say, and I'm not suggesting- I mean, you know you, you would think that the guy who had three percent closing line value probably is a little smarter, right, but they both broke even. 

58:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, yeah, but. But I mean, is that do you would like? Let's, let's say you're in a bookmaker's shoes now, I'm not suggesting you're booking anything, by the way, people, but say you're in a hypothetical bookmaker's shoes. Oh, that's not me for sure. Yes, I have way too much gamble. Hypothetically, would you want to take bets from that guy who's got the 3% closing line value? 

58:27 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I want to take bets from everybody. You learn who your customers are. That's what Pinnacle did, right, they learned their customers via their algorithm and they knew who to move lines off of. Now. Granted, that doesn't mean I'm not going to bet the wrong way at Pinnacle because they moved it so aggressively. I started doing that, but that's their choice. They could figure it out from there. I'm just giving them a bet right and, and you know, you got to do what you got to do to try to get down. It was kind of fun trying to figure out ways to to uh, get down, but it's it's knowing your customer. That's it. That's what these books are missing nowadays know your customer instead of throwing someone out that wins, like someone told me about. Uh, I'm not going to start trashing sports books, but there's certain sports book in vegas. I was actually surprised. Uh, the kid bet three hundred dollars on props or something and crushed him and they threw him out like no dude. He's betting 300 freaking dollars. You get all this information, but three hundred dollars, three hundred dollars, you're booking tens of thousands of dollars, $300. You can get a good idea of which way to move your line for. So you take the bet and move the line instead of throwing the guy out. 

59:34
When Matt Metcalf took over, when he opened Circa up, that's what he knew better than anybody. That's why they took big bets, because he could. He knew his customers, he knew how to move lines. The idea is to balance the books, the idea, what? What's so flawed about these? Plus, you're in new england, the red, the patriots are on a roll back when they had a good team and there are seven point favorite. Oh well, let's say the bills, and everyone's betting the patriots. They've won six in a row. They blow everybody out brady's god and et cetera, et cetera. And Belichick's a genius, neither of which I think are true, but that's. That's the perception that everyone has up here. And you're the local bookmaker, and let's say you're DraftKings and the line's seven, and you got 62,000 on the Patriots and 3,000 on the Bills. Well, clearly you should be at $7,500 or $7,000 minus $20,000, whatever you want to do, you should have moved the line at this point. But now the wise guys come in on the Bills because the line's too high and the market's now $6,500 and $6,000. So what do these geniuses do? They move it to $6,500. They have $62,000, two fucking thousand on the favorite and three thousand on dog. It's seven. And then move it to six and a half, right? No, every market should be an individual market, every every. 

01:00:50
The idea is to create a market where you have somewhat balanced books. I would argue. You don't want perfectly balanced, but somewhat balanced, and you don't want the perfect line. Six and a half minus 15 is ridiculous. If someone wants to lay six and a half and someone wants to take seven in a basketball game, if I had two guys on the phone and they both want a million dollars one wants minus six and a half, one wants plus seven write it. You can't do better. No, what does Chris do? Six and a half minus 15, so you don't write any fucking bets. Well, that's just wonderful. So you want a somewhat flawed line. 

01:01:23
Right To write bets. You're working on 11 to 10 big. So if you're, if you're giving up a half a percent because you're wrong at seven and you're wrong at six and a half, who cares? Write both sides of it and earn a living. They even the smart books completely missed the point because they got these auto movers that they end up with the perfect line. They think it's the perfect line? I don't think it is, because, again, I don't think the closing line is any big deal. But that's a flaw in this European model. 

01:01:50
Is you want to be with the market? No, you want to be what your market dictates. That's how you write two-way business, like if I had 62,000 and 3,000, I'd go to nine. What do I care? Let them. Let them my seven to take nine. What do I care? Right, right, bets. You want people to bet. You want people to look at your thing and bet. Yep, just like casino should want people to come in, not find ways to throw them out. It's, it's, it's. It's just so weird to me, like it's so simple, but people miss the point anyway. So, yeah, I would write everyone's business because you want to write everyone's business, and in fact, I would want wise guys to bet with me because if they do, I'd know what the line should be. So if some guy wants to bet a million dollars at eight, well, I know this line is rock solid. Go ahead and bet. Do what you want. 

01:02:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll figure out a way to get off of it. I'll tell you one game that a lot of books wrote bets on from this past week. It was uab and temple um. Uab. One and a half point favorites, early moves all the way up to seven. Seven and a half in some so it did get to eight. 

01:02:54
It did get to eight before ten. A lot of the the model uh computer guys said the line of the game should be around two, two, two and a half. So as soon as this number starts moving everyone's trying to figure out what's going on. Final score UAB beats Temple 100-72. There was a previous game that happened weeks back, involving Temple against Memphis, which kind of went under the radar a little bit more than this situation. What do you make of this? I mean, how many times have you seen stuff like this happen over the years? 

01:03:23 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Not often, I think. I think people think that they have have something on it, think I'm not saying it's true. The rumor I heard was they were dumping first halves and then and then you know. But I don't look at first half lines, which is a flaw in my game, but I I you know I'm a creature of habit. That was the rumor I heard, but I don't believe any of it. 

01:03:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What do you? 

01:03:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
mean they're dumping first halves, like they were just not trying in the first half, you know they may have had a player or two that you know here's. 

01:03:52 - Alan Boston (Guest)
You know 10,000, 20,000, whatever. They paid them and make sure you are a bit apathetic in the first half, to say it nicely. Yeah, I mean these types of listen, you get down with a forward. 

01:04:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They were down 20 to memphis early and came back covered, thankfully, uh, but they didn't get uab, which is maybe why that first memphis game didn't garner so much attention. 

01:04:13 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Attention, because they end up covering the spread but I will say this uab was at 17 at memphis. They're up 22 in the first half at memphis. 

01:04:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So getting ahead 20 at Temple is not impossible, I mean it's not impossible, but if we're looking at the line, move on the game. 

01:04:33 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, the line move was anomalous and inane and there was resistance, at least at eight, so at least other people lost their money like I did. I'd like to think that nothing went on, that people think that something was on, but I would tend towards no. There have been rumors like this over the years that never worked, never turned out to be true. No, they didn't move like wildfire, like this did. This was insane. 

01:04:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, that's what. 

01:04:56 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I'm getting at. 

01:04:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It literally wasn't that insane. Listen, they don't move like that every day, but yeah, it still happens over the course of the season. 

01:05:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Not this. 

01:05:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Listen, they don't move that like that every day, but yeah, it still happens over the course of the season, yeah, not this late in the year, bro, and not with no injury news. 

01:05:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, fair enough, but what I'll say is this Before we go making like accusations and stuff. 

01:05:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I agree I don't think there's anything happened. I'm saying no. Everyone was saying like oh, this is clear, this is clearly a match fixing, whatever. But they actually they'll investigate it and then they'll actually figure it out. 

01:05:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not hard to figure out. It could very easily be. Somebody thinks that they know something. 

01:05:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's not there. That's my perception. 

01:05:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, somebody gets word oh, this team is going to make. Like trust me, I know guys on the inside. They're mad at the coach. They don't want like. I don't know the exact situation, but it could easily be someone dumping money on what they think is a perceived edge. That's not there. 

01:05:48 - Alan Boston (Guest)
It could have been a rumor. The team had the flu. It could be a lot of things. 

01:05:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So yeah, let me give you one other scenario here, because I didn't have anything on the game. But when you start seeing, when something starts as a guy who might be reading a screen, for example, reading the screen it snowballs way more than than people think. So once you start to see like a game go from two to three to four to five, you're like, oh, this is going, something is happening. Guys must be injured, guys, even if no news is out, you're like somebody knows something and something is happening and you will jam and you will just jam that and snowball it and it snowballs it up. So I think two seems like wow, how did it go to two to eight? But it's the market that dictates it and eventually if you think something's happening, it'll go. So if it snowballed up from, let's say, two to five and a half, it's not unreasonable for it to go another three and a half points. If people think, wow, something just happened late. 

01:06:39 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Except it happens once every 20 years. That goes two to eight in March, so that was a weird one. 

01:06:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's possible. It's possible, Like I said. 

01:06:50 - Alan Boston (Guest)
UAB. The game before was up 22 at Memphis, who's far better than Temple. So getting ahead 25 at Temple it could have been there was a big move and UAB played well again. That's all it could be. Temple's had some clinkers this year. 

01:07:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you look at the NBA, what you'll see on screen is like you'll see Milwaukee go from minus one to, and you'll be like, oh shit, they're plus one, they're plus two, they're plus three, they're plus four, but by the time they go to plus two, someone's just like, ah, this likely a leak and Giannis is probably out, let's take it. And then they take it up, and then you'll see an hour later, ah, giannis is out, but that snowballs up and it's because of news Like that happens a lot of times, where people will play. 

01:07:28 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That's legit news, though. In fact, Temple got a player back that had missed the last game. 

01:07:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They kind of went out. What I'm saying is you do it on most people I know who are betting it in terms of steam chasing, that are actually chasing anticipated news and not actually betting the news. So what I'm saying is it's possible in this scenario, and if you were to ask me like oh, what do you think? Is it match-fix or not? I don't know. I didn't have a position on the game, I don't know and I think it will come out later. But all I'm saying is it's possible for a line to snowball up in the way that it did. 

01:08:01
Without any news and then people, the base, could be like I actually fucked up. What the fuck was that no news came? I thought this guy was out. I thought this quarterback was going to be out. But college basketball it's possible. It's because look at the moves that happen in nba and that's on. 

01:08:16 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I would go ahead and say probably 10x bet size it's unusual in a college basketball market for a line to move much. But you're right, it could just be people just jumping on the bandwagon. It's like a feeding frenzy. It's like the stock market. Yes, it's like look at crypto nowadays. Tech stocks. Tech stocks got hot. They just there was no price. Like, like, how can this stock be $50 a share? It's not worth anything. And then it's 60 a share because it's just this sharp feeding frenzy. 

01:08:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm going to change gears for a bit. I don't think there was anything up with that game. 

01:08:47 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That's my answer. 

01:08:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't believe so, and speaking of flawed and doing stupid things. The NCAA committee every year tries to screw over the mid-major teams. 

01:08:59 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Well, that's my opinion. 

01:09:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, yeah, it is. I'd like you to talk about it. Which I think has been proven right, by the way, depends on who you ask. But listen, I will say Selection Sunday every year at BostonRed88 on Twitter is like must-see TV. I know you're actually doing something with Spanky for this Selection Sunday this year. Yeah, I don't know what he expects. 

01:09:16 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I hope he doesn't expect picks, because they're not getting post pics on Twitter that have won at a very high rate. By the way, I remember I and no, I'm not bragging, this is not bragging, because I had bad years posting pics too but I think I picked like 11 winners in a row or something, something insane. And some guy was complaining. I actually, like an idiot, read the fucking comments and there were complaints. This is after like 11 winners in a row, like and I'd been winning before that too like the work has been really good this year and like really good stuff. The stuff just wins like easy. 

01:09:49
And the guy was complaining that my write-up wasn't thorough enough. Like I have something better to do to spend 45 minutes writing some essay on why I like a game. Or I could just try to throw some words together to make sense of why I like it. Like Like this is what they came up with. Your write-up wasn't thorough enough. Like well, fine, you do it. Then Fuck you Instead of you know good, pick Boston or something like that. Not that I'm looking for any accolades, I'm not but I'm not looking for criticism when I actually try to expound something intelligent, try to give some reason why I might like the game and I get shit because it wasn't thorough enough. So I apologized and then said fuck you, no more picks. But I couldn't help myself. I had a post-Fort Atlantic the other day, which I almost lost, by the way, 13-and-a half with three to go, and it was random at the end. Random to a Florida Atlantic side winning, but anyway. 

01:10:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Speaking of picks, you got anything for the tournament. You got anything for the conference tourneys? 

01:10:50 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Tonight one second. I'll take a look at the screen here for a second this is going to air on Thursday. Oh, that's not going to do any good. Then you know what? Okay, no good Give us like a dark horse. 

01:10:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not going to do any good. 

01:11:00 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Give us a dark horse shot to win to win the tourney. 

01:11:04
Oh, st Mary's Are they going to miss? They were the one team that, even though they lost Jefferson for the year and he's kind of a key guy, like they lack maybe coach is amazing and they're the one team. Last year and I said this on another show they were right there with yukon, the only team that was right there with yukon. Yukon destroyed everybody, not saint mary's. The game was close and then I think it was someone got hurt gucus, maybe one of their good players got hurt and they and and the game just got away. But it was a war. It was basically a a two or three point game that was going to the wire until this guy got hurt and St Mary's a little shorthanded anyway and and finally collapsed at a heap. I mean, the final score was deceiving. So, yeah, they're down. They're down, one of the better players now. 

01:11:46
But you want a sleeper team and it's hard to get past Connecticut, who clearly is the best team. Uh, I would say that's a dark horse. I love the coach, I love Aiden Mahaney, even though he didn't pan out as well as I thought he did, but watching that team, they can play fast, they can play slow. Their defense is just phenomenal. Fundamentally, they're incredible. They play in the half court as well as anybody and that's what wins NCAA tournament games. So as a super long shot and they probably will get an eight or nine seed, so they get fucked over. Because, as a super long shot and they probably will get an eight or nine seed, so they get over. Because you always stick them in the eight or nine spots, they have to face one seed in the second round, right, that's one of their tricks, but you go look over the years. 

01:12:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm serious, you're laughing, I'm. I'm only laughing because of experience of exp. I'm not laughing at you, I'm laughing with you. Let's put it that way. I'm like I got it. I've seen this. 

01:12:35 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I'm making a point when I say you're laughing because it's listen, it's a big business, right? Ever since that billion-dollar contract for TV became so college basketball ESPN put college basketball on the map and simultaneously destroyed it. They used to have that 20 this is before your time they had 24 hours of college basketball. They showed all the tournament games, except sometimes they showed them on delay, because for 24 hours they ran the first the first day, and for 24 hours they ran the second day, so you got to watch all the games at some point, sometimes not live, because they didn't have the cbs or whatever network is doing it now, right? 

01:13:12
true and true, tbs, you know, whatever the whole amalgam of uh, nonsense there, uh, but it was an amazing, amazing event. I had friends come up from college and I'd buy like a 25 pound turkey. We'd sit there and watch games for two days and it was just this incredible event and it was the excuse me, it was the. I think the game changer and it worked in two good ways was the Ivy League was going to lose their automatic bid, which tells you something about what they're thinking is anyway right. And then Princeton played Georgetown, pete Carrillo against John Thompson 16 versus 1, and the game is basically tied the whole way and, amazingly, a Princeton player ended up in the third row with a bloody nose and and there was no foul called and georgetown won the game, but it was the highest rated game they had on espn. The ivy league didn't lose their automatic bid and and college basketball basically was, was blown, blown up. That, that 16-1 game. That was just incredible, riveting tv from nowhere. This, uh, georgetown was the behemoth. And here's Princeton with the smart kids, you know, back-cutting and constantly moving and just running this beautiful offense, hanging with the big boys. And it was that Cinderella was born and college basketball was born and it blew up from there. It wasn't long after that the billion-dollar contract was made, and now it's a big business. So what happens when there's a big business? So when big business is around and big money's around, evil happens. And when evil happens, the money has to get to the right places. So it's actually pretty logical that the draw won't be on the square, and I'll say it like that because that's I've been saying it. 

01:14:58
It first dawned on me. I was doing a radio show in Vegas on a Sunday. I did the Sunday Night Sports Starters line. The starters have since imploded, so we're going way back and I recall that the draw came out and I was doing the show and Butler didn't get in the tournament that year. They lost in the first round to Wisconsin Green Bay. I think it was the Horizon league they were in at the time and they'd beaten wisconsin green bay by over 40 both times during the year. And, shock of all shocks, they lost in the first round because it was just an impossible game for them to take seriously and they didn't get in. And now the bracket comes out. 

01:15:32
I made the point and I forget if it was the two seed or the three seed that Butler, on a neutral court would have been the betting favorite over all four three seeds or all four two seeds, I forget which one it was, and it wasn't even close Like they clearly would have been favored. Let's say the three seeds, just not to be too ridiculous, but that's fact and since my numbers are pretty good, I'm probably right. And then it dawned on me this is something ain't right here like how is this team not in? They're one of the best teams in the country and they're not in the freaking tournament. And utah state, similarly, that year, had like some net ranking that was really high or whatever bullshit. They were looking at that. That never gives the mid-majors a break. Uh, they didn't get in either, and and they clearly should have been, in terms of stew moral, one of my favorite coaches. So maybe I I was a little biased, but no, numbers-wise, power ranking-wise, which is irrefutable they should have been in too. 

01:16:23
And as that happened over the years, I noticed there was always the mid-majors so-called mid-majors, that's what they call them that got screwed over and to this day it's happened. So I predict that St Mary's will probably have an eight seed or a nine seed, maybe Florida Atlantic. Florida Atlantic had an eight seed last year, by the way, playing Memphis in the first round, another school they don't really like. So that 8-9 game had a face, presumably Purdue in the first round, but whoops in the second round, whoops, that didn't happen too well and I contend that that is not unintentional. I'll say it like that, fair enough. Unintentional. I'll say it like that, fair enough. I think it's extremely corrupt. 

01:17:01
I think you'll see that mid-majors, tough mid-majors, often face each other in the first round with a very, very difficult game for them. Lurking. You won't see, like the old days, vermont playing North Carolina, because John Becker against Roy Williams is such a mismatch that the upset may happen. Can't have that. So we'll stick Vermont in against Purdue. You know some team they didn't match up well with. 

01:17:21
They're actually pretty smart how they do it. I think they actually know more than you realize, which makes one wonder how they come up with. You know, they're so good at screwing teams over that, how do they fuck up the bracket so much? But that's how. I think that's the flaw in the whole system. They go behind back doors, close doors and create this thing that you'll hear. And, by the way, and and this is how joe fraud nardi was born right. 

01:17:46
Fraud nardi or lennardi, whatever you call him. I call him fraud nardi because he knows nothing about basketball. He would. He was very good at predicting brackets, all right. So what are we going to do to promulgate our nonsense? Well, let's use this guy. This guy predicts the brackets right every year, and our brackets are flawed and stupid. So let's make this guy the do-all-end-all of bracketing. So all they're doing is they find a guy who agrees with their shit and make him king. Well, joe Frodnardi agreed with us. So clearly. We did a good job, right? That's why he's king. Listen to me, there's nothing about sports betting. If you look at his early picks for who should be in the tournament, they're not even close. A lot of these guys don't lack of knowledge of of the game. 

01:18:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A lot of, like the national writers and whatever. They don't know anything about betting. 

01:18:32 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That's just the reality of the situation, but so so why wouldn't they go after somebody who might know something about betting and not to not to do the bracket for him, but say here, here's how I have him rated one to a hundred because it doesn't move the needle for them. 

01:18:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And, honestly, sometimes these ones that are a little bit more outlandish move the needle for them a little bit more than someone coming out and saying you know what we all know. That's the sad reality of it. That's a sad reality of it, but we're gonna see we're gonna see where that's, that's. 

01:18:59 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That's the reality agreed. 

01:19:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
St mary's number 20, ken palm, right now number 16, torvik, torvik rank. So a four or five seed is what roughly they should be. 

01:19:09 - Alan Boston (Guest)
We will see when the and by over I mean a higher number and I would be three to one on the over. There you go and I'd be robbing you. There's no fucking chance they get a four or five seed, all right, and I don't know where I'd have them. In fact, for Spanky Shaw, I'm going to write out what my top 70 teams were, so I could just have some sort of reference point as to here's what I think it should be and here's what the committee believes, and we'll see how the mid-majors fare and that particular dynamic. But you'll see. And then people will say well, san Diego State made the finals and Florida Atlantic went far. Yeah, they did, because they're good teams. 

01:19:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, they fucked up the bracket. 

01:19:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, alan we have go ahead, sorry, go ahead. 

01:19:50 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, sorry. So the other thing I want to comment on is how delusional these people are. When Loyola Chicago and Sister Jean made their run years ago, the head of a head of NBC or CBS whoever did the thing said, well, we'd rather have Kentucky because the ratings are better. So someone actually went and broke down. You know how they have four networks. So they broke down Loyola's games in the time slot they were in on the network. They were in and compared them to years past. Now there wasn't, there's not a big sample size and in fact, after the first round where it didn't really matter but they happened to beat the, I think they beat miami in the first round, which I lost a fortune on. Uh, some fucked up ending too, by the way, uh, the uh. After that they, their game on the network they were on, blew away prior games on that network. At that time the ratings were way higher for Loyola Chicago, so they even got that wrong. 

01:20:48
Cinderella is the charm of the NCAA tournament. Not Kentucky, not Duke, not Kansas. When you think about past incantations of the tournament, you think about George Mason's final four run, butler making back-to-back finals, loyola Chicago and Sister Jean it's always this underdog that gets all the talk. What do they talk about? The upsets that happened on day one and two, it's true. So that's the charm, that's the purity of this tournament that they're about to completely take away when they form these three or four power conferences and break away and say, screw you, we're going to do our own thing now, which is what they've been angling for for the last 30 years. 

01:21:24
And now they're finally succeeding with these completely ridiculous UCLA at Maryland in the Pac-10 or the Big Ten, whatever the hell it is. Yeah, that's for the student athlete, isn't it? That's good for the student athlete. Let's make a cross-country trip in the middle of the week to play a basketball game or gymnastics meet. It's so fucked up. But at least they have the SNIL now. So all the money they've been paying these kids under the table, at least it's in the forefront now. 

01:21:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Alan, before we close off the show, we have one last question for you, absolutely. 

01:21:50 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Ask away, we can go forever. 

01:21:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We have the same question to all of our guests. We just want you to basically give out if you got a plus EV move of the week or a minus EV move of the week. It could be anything. It doesn't have to be betting related, any kind of move, anything you want, what's just a good thing to do. 

01:22:10 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Positive expected value in life, something that you might do on a daily basis. 

01:22:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
By the way, I didn't read your email, so this is coming at me. 

01:22:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
An example would be like positive expected value. You don't have to give me examples, I got it. 

01:22:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I said, alan, I just we're going to ask you this question. And he responds like I didn't make it dude, I didn't make it past the first paragraph of this email. 

01:22:25 - Alan Boston (Guest)
So I would say two things, two things. I got two things for you Ready, perfect. So you talk about dogs, so nature, a walk through nature. They have these trails, these preserved trails, in Connecticut. They're absolutely amazing. But when I was nine years old, well, that would be the negative one. So, yeah, hanging out with your great Dane, hanging out with the dog, walking in nature, I've always wanted to hang out with a bear. 

01:22:50
Bears are amazing, like mama bear's amazing, like she's starving and giving birth, and they have no place to live in Connecticut anymore. But and they have no place to live in Connecticut anymore, but we have a bear problem. It's not that we keep tearing down territory that was preserved for years. We have a bear problem in Connecticut because bears have no place to eat, so they have to. What G they have to, yeah, so they're infringing on people's territory. So I would say nature animals, just hang with them. The other thing is little things in life that you might come up with. So, for instance, this is a good one the end of breaking bad, yeah, which was a pretty famous show spoiler alert for anyone who hasn't seen it by now this isn't really a spoiler. 

01:23:30
The final song that they play is baby blue by bad finger right. How clever is that? Baby blue is the name of the song. I never, I, never, I never got that all right. 

01:23:44
Well, the, the drug of choice was blue right in eight years or seven years or six years it was on. So if you haven't watched breaking bad, that was it's little nuanced things like that, like uh. Or finding some uh obscure tv show like uh, like uh. Blunt Talk is one of the great shows I've ever seen in my life that no one's ever heard of. It was canceled after two years the funniest fucking thing I've ever watched in my life. So the little things in life are always the joyous ones, and maybe some song you never heard before that just brings joy to you. So yeah, those are the two things nature and the little things that you can appreciate, that maybe are ironic or unknown or clever Very good. 

01:24:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Bro, what's? 

01:24:27 - Alan Boston (Guest)
next. 

01:24:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm trying to be modern. 

01:24:29 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That's what the bro is about, dude. 

01:24:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The last one, brother, is if you could go back five years. Okay, so just a measly five years for you. You've been in this space for a long time. What is a piece of advice you'd give yourself from just five years ago? 

01:24:45 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Five years ago. Yeah, can we go back further? You? 

01:24:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
know what? For you, we're going to make an exception. 

01:24:51 - Alan Boston (Guest)
You know so five years ago. I'm almost 66 years old, so you don't learn as much from 60 to 66. But if we go way back I would. 

01:25:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, let's go way back, Give us the age. So what age would you? 

01:25:08 - Alan Boston (Guest)
be speaking to yourself with this piece of advice, so I'm self-deprecating. I absolutely hate a lot of what I do, which is good and bad. 

01:25:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I never would have got that from you, Alan. 

01:25:22 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Really Just kidding. Oh, jk, right, that would be modern. How smart I am. Huh, yeah, this is good. I had. So we all struggle with life, right, and I had. So we all struggle with life, right. Like it's, at some point life is just ducking the inevitable and trying to figure out ways to duck it. And we're going to get all teary-eyed here, but no, we're not. I had an epiphany about 12, 13 years ago, and this is very simple and this is the advice I would have given me now, except I gave it to me 13 years ago. And this is very simple and this is the advice I would give me now. I would have given me now, except I gave it to me 13 years ago. So this is what actually happened. I'm not really answering your question, but I think this is good. 

01:26:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, this is good, this is good. What's the advice? 

01:26:11 - Alan Boston (Guest)
So I'm not going to kill myself. So I have two choices I could live life happy or I could live life sad. Now, logically, it's better to live life happy. So stop going there, stop torturing yourself over unknown thoughts, over stuff that causes you so much pain that you can't sleep at night, or you have a panic attack. Just go there and I, in fact, have been able to block mostly painful thought or ruminating, mostly painful thought or ruminating and it's been life-changing. It's made daily existence way easier, it's made sleeping at night way easier, and I encourage all to try to figure out a way to do that. That saved my life, probably from just complete misery all the time to someone who's just miserable some of the time, which is called being human. So yeah, that would be my answer. Probably not what you were getting at. 

01:27:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, it was actually. Yeah, it's a great piece of advice. It's a great piece of advice. It's for anybody, because the point of that question is whatever you want it to be. That's what the answer is. We're not looking for anything specific. Okay, I think that would help a lot of people. 

01:27:17 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Especially if you didn't go with the negative EV, Just the positive anyway. Oh, you can. 

01:27:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean listen. 

01:27:24 - Alan Boston (Guest)
That's an easy one, our government. 

01:27:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Negative EV. 

01:27:28 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, our government is negative. Ev and poachers the opposite of the walk through the environment. When I was eight years old, my dream in life was to make enough money to hire mercenaries to kill anyone that looks at an elephant the wrong way, and I mean it. Just kill every fucking poacher there is. 

01:27:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've never understood that I failed in that Well, because it's all money. 

01:27:48 - Alan Boston (Guest)
If you make $100,000 to go kill an elephant, what the fuck do you care about the elephant? 

01:27:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, fair enough. 

01:27:52 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Meanwhile they're the most amazing creature on the planet. I can't even watch an elephant special without having a meltdown. Even an animated elephant will cause me, so that's how I blocked that one. I avoid it, which sucks because I still haven't watched my octopus teacher, which supposedly isn't even sad, but I'm afraid it's extremely sad. 

01:28:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a little bit. I watched it. I'm not gonna let. I met. This came up on the show last week. I cried during movies. I got very emotional during that movie, but that guy actually fell in love with the octopus. No, I believe it's also I haven't watched yet, so no spoiler okay, I'm not gonna get to it at some point. 

01:28:25 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, I watched I the last time I actually I was flicking through when the academy awards came on and, uh, a scene from there happened to be it was. I ran so bad that they were showing the scene from the documentary my octopus teacher where the octopus flicks and he said I was deep sea. And then it happened and there's the octopus flicking one of his arms out and wrapping it around the guy's arm. I had a complete meltdown like I. I cried so long and so hard that I I had to go find I had to go call someone to get a clonopin because I was having a panic attack like, got that bad. So I've been afraid to watch the movie. No good, no good. 

01:29:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's tough. It's tough If you're an animal lover. It's kind of depressing to watch. I'm just going to call it out for a minute. 

01:29:06 - Alan Boston (Guest)
Yeah, because we should be able to live in harmony like that, instead of destroying the environment which, by the way, with their green energy, as they destroy fishing areas and kill whales with their wind energy and clear, cut 200 acres to put up inefficient solar energy. 

01:29:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Anyway, you know, I get back to this one's not so much an environmental one, I'll tell you that, it's just more so. Uh, I get it with an octopus. Well, that one. 

01:29:30 - Alan Boston (Guest)
If that one very happy scene caused a meltdown, I can't even imagine, because octopus live like a year and a half, I think so, and it took eight years to make this, so that's inevitable. You've got to deal with that and one knows what else. But it's supposed to be an amazing movie and as soon as I'm brave enough I'll watch it. I haven't been brave enough to re-watch Boyhood, and that's actually a happy movie. 

01:29:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I fell down with that. One too'll tell you right now if you get emotional click with adam sandler, strike it off the don't worry about it. 

01:30:03 - Alan Boston (Guest)
I don't watch adam sandler movies. He was in that. He was in that. Was he the idiot in that deep cuts movie, that gambling movie? Yeah, yeah, uncut gems yeah, that was the worst movie, one of the worst movies I've ever seen in my life. I mean absolutely. Could they not have? 

01:30:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
hired like a gambling expert to consult on that and be like hey guys, you can't parlay all the, you can't parlay the opening. This was before the whole thing was ridiculous. 

01:30:24 - Alan Boston (Guest)
The whole premise, the whole, the whole plot line. So I think you were at movie night. But California split, that is definitely the quintessential gambling movie that gets it. Can I ask? 

01:30:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
you about one other one Really quickly. Oh, have you ever watched Owning Mahoney? That's the Coen brothers, right? I don't know who did it. I don't think I've seen that. Philip Seymour Hoffman before he died. I was at Bet Bash when you gave the breakdown of California Split and you talked about the degeneracy of that movie and how it really captures what real bettors are all about. If you ever get a chance, watch the movie called Owning Mahoney. I think it will really strike a chord with you. 

01:31:04 - Alan Boston (Guest)
It got really good reviews. I remember that I think that's the Coen brothers, but I'd have to look. I definitely will see it. 

01:31:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, alan, thank you very much for joining. 

01:31:12 - Alan Boston (Guest)
We really appreciate your time, Anytime boys. 

01:31:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I have to do it again sometime for everyone. Uh, listening, I hope you enjoyed the interview. Please leave a comment what you think alan's not going to read him. He's already said not, he's not gonna be in the comments. Uh, if you haven't yet, please subscribe to the channel. Please like the video and we'll see you guys all next week. Cheers, cheers, be good. Thanks, boys. Thank you, alan. Thanks for watching.