00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I will say Pete Rose put out a video I don't know if anyone saw on the Shohei Otani situation and somebody asked him about it and he's like, ah, if I could go back in time I would have got myself an interpreter. Welcome to Circles. Off episode number 147, right here, part of the Hammer Betting Network and presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. We have a guest on today's episode and a wide variety of topics to get into Some college sports betting, some baseball betting, some other stuff as well, which I think you'll find interesting. But before we do so, baseball is right around the corner, the Masters is right around the corner, nba playoffs, nhl playoffs coming up. We even got the rest of March Madness going on. If you're going to use one sportsbook in the space, I would recommend that you use Pinnacle Sportsbook. I've been betting there for a long time. They've been in business for 25 plus years for a reason they're a highly trusted and respected sportsbook in the space and if you're serious about betting and you're line shopping, you're going to find that Pinnacle has the best price in market many, many times. So make sure you check them out. If you're in Canada, use code HAMMER If you are signing up. It supports us here on Circles Off. You must be 19 plus not available in the US and, of course, as always, make sure you're playing responsibly. 

01:18
Our guest on this week's episode is a good friend of ours here at the Hammer Betting Network. He's a college sports better and soon to be pro baseball better as well, getting involved with the MLB and KBO. He's part of the team here at Hit the Books on YouTube at Hit the Books HQ, and he's building better odds over at betteroddsco. You can follow him on Twitter at KeepBettingCo. Ceo. At the end, corby Craig joins us on Circles Off. Corby, how's it going? 

01:44 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, guys, it's going to be fun. I'm excited. The first game of the year for me, betting KBO, was last night, 4.30 am, well, I guess this morning. So perfect timing, middle of March. Madness Can't have asked for a better time to join you guys. I've been asking Johnny for this show for too long, and we're. It's going to be a fun one welcome to the show did you win the bet? 

02:02
yeah, oh yeah one. It was, uh, the samsung lions first half under and, uh, I think they didn't even score through five. So pretty easy for start of the year, which is always bad. You know, it's the gambler's fallacy. Like I probably should have lost the first one. Now I'm feeling a little too hot here crazy how the kbo names are brands the samsung lions they. 

02:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I didn't know that at first I still. 

02:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I didn't know that until he just said it right now. 

02:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you know that? You didn't know that their names are all brands? 

02:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen man. Everybody went nuts during COVID with betting. 

02:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Kbo Team names. I'm going to show you which ones Some of them. You probably won't understand the brands, but where are the teams here? Kbo list of teams. Okay, you guys keep talking. 

02:45 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I'm the most interesting content we've ever one of the more interesting things in KBO is like you'll see Americans who are decent pitchers in America go over to KBO and just absolutely shove. Last night was Casey Kelly, who I don't know his MLB career I think he played at the Nationals, but I know more from KBO. He is just an absolute menace. In KBO they played the Lions. The Lions are 2-0, look pretty decent and they were like minus 350 favorites the Dinos were. So it's just these American pitchers. They don't know what to do over there. They absolutely nuke every single team. 

03:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was the first game of the year and you have a minus 350 favorite in one of the games. 

03:22 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I think it was the second game of the year, the first one I've bet, uh, but yeah, it's minus 350. There's another one that was 270, like the. The top to bottom differential is just huge, like baseball usually I mean there's some really crappy teams, but you won't get that big of a differential. 

03:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The top in kbo is much better than even the average in kbo yeah, just because typically a first game of the year or early games in the year you have ace versus ace for both teams, it'd be hard to find like a discrepancy that's that large where one team. I mean it's probably happened in mlb before, but you don't. You don't see it at that level. 

03:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Minus 350 opening day okay, I pulled them up. So during covid beginning I I came to this realization. I was looking at these teams and I'd be like, oh, there's the Kia Tigers, like Samsung Lions, the LG Twins, and I was like, oh it's hilarious, they're just like kind of the same as brands. I didn't really think anything of it and then one day it clicked to me that these teams are all just owned by those brands. Yeah, and then those are the teams. 

04:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know, I've placed like hundreds of KBO bets before, just off of like people sending me bets and like, yeah, this is good, this is good. I never once thought about the brand name. 

04:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, a lot of these. We definitely don't know the brands, but yeah, the Doosan bears. 

04:31 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I don't know what that brand is, but yeah. 

04:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know that. The Lotte, lotte giants, but that's certainly a brand. Yeah, I know a lot of these brands actually do own the teams, I believe so, for example, the LG Twins, that's LG's team. Yeah, well, it's an interesting sport. 

04:50 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
The crowd appeal to Korean baseball is so much higher than American. I don't stay up to watch them at 430, but I have before. These games have pseudo-sections. They're crazy. I guess they just don't have any more primary sports, so Korean baseball gets them going. 

05:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They got some good MLB players coming over now as well too. 

05:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it's good to see sports develop in other regions. I've looked up the Lotte Corporation. I still don't know what they do, so that's upon research. I'll figure this out at another point in time. Doosan is like some environmentally friendly, better future for humanity across the globe. I don't know how they're making money, but anyways you live and you learn. 

05:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Lotte Corporation industry conglomerate yeah, I don't know. I don't know what they're doing. They're doing some, they're doing you know what they're doing Business. 

05:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's it they're doing industry business. Finding a way to make money and they own a professional baseball team. That's it. We're doing business, industry business. They're finding a way to make money and they own a professional baseball team. 

05:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's all you need to know Exactly. So yeah, corby, thanks for joining the show. Sorry that I guess it is long overdue. We'll start with small. By the way, we're doing the tweets that trigger us, so everyone that's tuning in right now, corby's going to be on it. We got a couple bangers, couple uh, gambling twitter ogs that are going to be in here. We don't. We take shots at everybody it doesn't matter. 

06:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It doesn't matter, nobody's safe. We're not picking, but it's all in love. 

06:08 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
We're you just, joe, it's just for entertainment the last one, the last one I kind of assumed was coming. So it was. Uh, it was a good add to the end of the tweets to trigger us yes, nice, nice, yeah, we sent them in advance. 

06:18
Uh, okay, corby, uh, your your story into, uh, into betting this is interesting because I don't really enjoy this part of podcasts where people just like give their long spiel. So I'll make it short and quick. Basically I was an okay athlete who made really good connections through the AAU circuit, through sports in general, lived in Alabama. Birmingham has a whole bunch of smaller colleges all kind of condensed within each other. We saw UAB and Sanford in March Madness, which is like five minutes from each other, which is awesome. Go blazers. Unfortunate I was messaged y'all about that game, but hey, the blazers made it and that's what matters. 

06:52
But yeah, I was um graduate of uab. Wasn't great enough as sports to really do anything, had some really small offers but just nothing that really interested me because I just wasn't good enough to do anything with them. So I went to engineering school, uab, in like a really low level coding class, like I had always been decent with numbers, but I didn't really care, I just wanted to do like some kind of hard school. I first wanted to do pharmacy, kind of got out of it, did engineering, just something hard to try to make myself learn. And I was in MATLAB. If you don't know MATLAB, I think it's C++ and uh, my project was like to take player models and try to reenact or recreate the scores of all previous world series champs and uh was awful. I, I passed class by hard coding the project, basically, but it interested me because like I was getting these texts and like I have friends and like we'd all hang out and um. 

07:43
A good example is like one of the players a prominent player of one of the local teams was like hey, I got hurt at practice yesterday, I'm not gonna play saturday, and this was like a really big deal and it wasn't on the news. I'm like dude, if I had a player model, I could like project out what this guy's worth. I'm the only person that knows like we were. He was at my house playing 2k together and I was like this has to be useful information. So a little bit of of learning the ropes, talking to people like y'all. I've been in this for what feels like forever. I think I started in 2016, which at this point, just is, I think, 25 of my life, which is crazy to think about um, but just building out player models, building out connections, relationships and and continuing to fight that path. Uh, and, as most people see it, I started out as college caps. I have focused on college basketball, college football and we'll talk about that, but um just seeing the edge of the connections you can make in this industry. 

08:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Essentially, yeah, so with the college sports side of things, um, you obviously have a little bit of a programming background. How much of of the handicapping was like manually handicapping versus, um you know, creating a model to project out games? 

08:47 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
yeah, I I would say that I have a more keen eye in college sports than most and I I'm not sure that I can say that like I have a an edge from my eye. I'm not, I wouldn't say I'm that good, but I do enjoy. And in college more than pro, there's a a massive differential in scheme, like in the nba you're going to see basically all teams running the same plays, like guys get traded and know the know the assignments within the same day. Um, in college it's not that you'll see completely different schema that in situations will match up much worse. So I do think I have a decent eye or knack for that, uh. 

09:19
But from a betting standpoint, I never really bet until I built a player model, uh, and trusted what I was doing. I more I wouldn't say like when you have people on the show they're like well, I started gambling when I was 10. I I come from essentially nothing like my brother and I lived in the same bedroom of a trailer. Gambling has never been in my life, ever. Um, I only wanted to do it when I thought I had an edge. So the first, probably three years were just me building these and watching games and and if they won would be like a little check in my excel sheet of like hey, I know what I'm doing, um, and then, when I thought I had an edge, that's when I started betting. So at this point I would say mostly player base, a lot of situational schema, um, and and obviously information when I first started vet stamp, we're talking like 2020, maybe, maybe September 2020. 

10:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um, we had just launched the app. We were getting a bunch of people that were using the app and at the time, our main focus was, like guys who were posting picks and just making sure everything was transparent in there. Um, which still is a large part of what we do, but at that point, that was like everything we were trying to do is the only way we were acquiring like customers and users and stuff like that, and this one I would. I would take as many calls as I could with anyone who was like using the app, posting all their bets. Like I'm like, yeah, let me know what feedback, like what do you guys want? Cause we were still developing a lot of stuff. So I'd take like maybe a call a day with someone who was using and just asking a bunch. So my friend told me about this guy's Discord you know the college caps. I'm like, no, I don't know the college caps and, by the way, everybody that I was talking to, all these users I was talking to for like three weeks straight were just being like, oh, this guy's posting his picks on Action Network and then I go check out his profile. I'm like, oh, this guy's the biggest fraud of all time network. And then I go check out his profile. I'm like oscar's the biggest fraud of all time. Like it was all losers, every guy's losing. I didn't find a single guy that was winning and everyone's like, oh yeah, I buy this guy's picks, I buy this, I buy the people were. I talked to people who literally bought vegas dave's picks, who bought like all these guys picks. Then this one guy's like, oh, the college caps this kid. He's in college, he's he like knows all the players and he posts all these pics, college caps. You got to go in his discord. I made a discord account just to join this kid's discord because I'm like, okay, let me check this out, even though I was 99.9 sure it was just a fraud losing. Better, I was 99.9 sure because I had 30, 30 straight in a row. 

11:40
I joined this guy's thing and he's literally like explaining to his users in a rough form what clv is, which, without even saying the term clv, he's just like, oh, I got this number and like this is now what it's at. He's like actually doing stuff legit and I'm like, oh, okay, you know what it's actually being closed on a lot of stuff. It's got a lot of news-based stuff. It's like, oh, this guy's gonna be out. 

12:02
I'm like checking with friends that I know that bet professional. Like oh, did you know? Like when did you bet this game? Did you know that this player was out? And they're like, no, we didn't know that. That just hit market and like he had it before. And I'm like, oh, okay, this kid's actually doing some stuff. So I messaged him. We had. I'm like, ah, this, this guy's all right, this is the first and it was the first guy that since I started Bedstamp that I talked to her. I'm like, oh, this kid could actually do something in the space and he's actually legit. So respect, bro, and we've been friends ever since two things on that. 

12:34 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
First, I appreciate the uh, the compliment. I I pride myself in the idea that, like, I don't say that I like am a pro, pro by any means. Especially at that time I was more like tried to put myself as like, hey, this is what I'm actually learning and I think that it'll provide value to you, so that's awesome, that that more important, I also remember that exact call because you're the first person who, on socials, had reached out to me and be like hey, I don't want a message, let's hop on a call. And I was like cool, I had never hopped on a phone with anybody from this endeavor and this wasn't my primary source of income. I was in engineering school. I think we called in finals week in the middle of me studying for a test, the only class I've ever failed. So I was in the middle of-. 

13:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, my God. 

13:26 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I was like dude, thermodynamics kicked my ass, but a whole different story. Yeah, john, you called and I was like the I remember because I I knew bet stamp had high hopes and I was like yo, here's the issues, I see, and like the whole call was just me, absolutely dog. It wasn't dogging, but I was like yo, it's great, it has amazing upside change this, this, this, this, and then like and you just listened for like 30 minutes. So you're like there was no, like we'll look into it. And the very first thing I remember is like two weeks later they were all done and I was like all right, because I told you. 

13:49
I was like I don't want to switch. I have so much tracked and third-partied on this other side of this action. But I had like I paid people to ensure that it wasn't wrong, which obviously isn't the right do this. But now we see in hindsight and I was like yo, if you'll change this, this, this, like I'm I'm giving away documentation of basically 12, like 1200 wages at that time and I was like, if you change all of these, I will switch. And instantly it was done. I was like cool, and I've used it ever since. So, love best champ. I literally check every. It's the easiest way to check odds If you want to go really quickly and click and see what the best price for a market is. 

14:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Wow, johnny you're so desperate in the early days that you were just making all switches for everyone on Vegas Day. 

14:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, you know what. You know what it was it was. So I bet a specific way and I wanted my stuff tracked a specific way. So I built that exact thing. But you slowly come to realize when you build a product, especially when it's something like tracking, that everybody has a slightly different way of doing things, and then you have to be open to hearing other people's advice on that. Obviously, you can't do every single change, but I remember talking to you about it too and you're like, ah, okay, probably needs like these things in here. And then, slowly but surely, it became a good tracking app that now is like super usable to track. Before at the time it was like, okay, this is only good for this one way. So, yeah, you have to, especially when starting. Of course, I was desperate for users. I was going to input all 1,200 of your picks myself to backtrack. 

15:15 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, I was like I can show that there's documentation, but I really don't want to add these that would take away validity of what you've built built. I'm not saying it was bad at all. I'm more saying, like, the ability to take social input is awesome and I think for any kind of business like we've talked business a million times over uh, any kind of business, the ability to listen to others and make adjustments and not say you're the right one in this situation is it's huge and it's what's made best. Stamp what it is now. So go ahead. 

15:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So when I when I sorry I was deviating here just a little bit to Betstamp story time, but when I first joined Betstamp as well, I did do a lot of the same calls. 

15:49
One of the most frequent things from people is they would get onboarded, they would join, They'd post picks for like three, four weeks. A lot of them were scammers, generally speaking, they would lose. And then they reach out to me and be like hey Rock, we have a call and they're like hey, you know, I have these picks from the last two years where I won like 186 units. Could we get those into the app as well? And it was like all these people that were looking to basically start at like plus 100 units, and obviously it hurt us in terms of acquiring users in the early going, but it kept the authenticity of getting people to start from scratch. That was tough, though, when, like you're onboarding people regularly and then within the first one to two months, they realize like I'm not a winning better and like they didn't, they couldn't come to this knowledge beforehand or they just like left it out. 

16:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's why, like, honestly, we we don't focus as much on like the public pick, tracking and stuff, because the reality is like people join for one month, like rob said, they lose and they're like, oh well, can you just put my record as this because like, trust me, bro, I got all these picks and I I have it on action network and now even I mean there's other platforms in the space, um, the, the main one that you can sync your, your books, would be like our main competitor if you, if you look at anyone who's posting on their winning record, you can sort and then just see another thing that says bet, bet this for a friend and you can just tag that and it hides it from your account. 

17:11
So these guys have these accounts which are fully linked, regulated books, like it links their fan duel account, for example, but they can hide plays and then they'll it'll show that they're up like 37 units, and then you click into the thing and you can see their bet for friend down 46 units, like okay, yeah, buddy, your buddy lost 46 units. 

17:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're up 36 your buddy happened to go 1 and 29 in his last 30 picks, but you know you shot 60 percent exactly, exactly. 

17:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, no, cool, cool. But this is that. This is, this is corby's pod. We'll get back into the ncaa stuff. Uh, more more recent, I guess, how you doing on this year's tournament? 

17:48 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
yeah, it's good. I really don't bet a ton of tournament. Obviously I had to bet the first round. My blazers were in it. I actually didn't bet anything big there other than first half under, which was one of the luckiest bets I've had in a minute. I think that live went 10 points over. Um, there's just a bunch of fouls, bunch of injuries early and I texted y'all. I was like listen, get ready, get ready, halftime's coming, hop on my Blazers. You did. I'm not sure if y'all pulled the trigger, but they did in fact cover, because great teams do inevitably cover. 

18:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They lost the game, but they did cover. Yes, good teams cover, that's true. So what are you betting mostly these days, right now? So you mentioned KBO. 

18:25 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Are you pre prep for the mob? I usually stop in madness, just it's fun, like there's just not a ton of volume, like relative. Also, there are things that are just out of my wheelhouse I don't trust, like the late game situations or whatever it is. So I find more use case prepping, mlb prepping, kbo. Kbo conveniently starts like four days after march madness, which is just the perfect crossover of like I don't really miss out on much. I bet some of the smaller tournaments cbi and it in situations, but really it's just prep for mlb. 

18:49
Mlb is the grind of all grinds and so, uh, can't really prep enough for it and be prepared, but feel pretty good about this year, um, going to do more. I I think that you can get into props markets more in baseball right now and I feel pretty comfortable in the fact that I think I have a winning edge in player props. I guess we'll see. But those, those major markets, are tough, like even when you see really big groups betting money lines hours before they're moving five, six cents on on really respectable actions. So it's just tough. I think there are easier, there are easier. What is it? Apple to be picked. But you know that's the grind and I'm excited to try. 

19:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you're an interesting person to ask this question to because you have experience in betting both. But over the past couple months we've done some pods and a lot of it's been centered around limiting players, how to avoid getting limited, and it's been discussed and talked about that nowadays, like the college basketball market, it's a lot smaller in terms of limits, in terms of what you can get down generally speaking. But there's this player props market that's booming and there's been some suggestion that you're actually more likely to be able to sustain your account nowadays by betting on player props than by actually betting full market college basketball sides and totals. Would you agree with that? 

20:10 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, from a side standpoint I would say probably not. I think sides are still relatively efficient, like no matter what the market is. At least I would like to believe that in my heart. From a total standpoint. I mean, if you've watched this market move on overnights, you have to agree we saw a 10-point swing overnight a month ago, which markets should be greatly efficient. Also, if you're a sports book book, who do you think's sharper? 

20:34
Uh, somebody at 2 pm day of betting a player prop, or an overnight person betting wichita state versus who, smu's total at 139 and a half, like it, just it screams. I kind of know what I'm doing. I think that if you didn't, you'd be betting that early. We kind of talk about that in a minute. Uh, I, I I've been in both camps of betting overnight betting day of and I I think there's pros and cons to both, but I would agree, like it would make sense to in my head. If you're betting overnight totals in particular and just absolutely nuking market, then uh, it would be a really easy way to these sportsbooks who want to limit people who have any clue of what they're doing. It would be a really easy red flag for them and you know they want to take as quick of a red flag as they can nowadays. 

21:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
For me, by the way, it's mostly and anybody listening who's using our Player Props product. Thank you guys for the support. We had amazing support on that. For me, it's more the closing line stuff. So you know, as we've talked to with a bunch of different guests here, like the books will have a obviously like a report see who's beating the closing line. If you're not beating the closing line on like a college basketball side, it's most likely you're losing. I'm not saying everyone's losing. You can do it on purpose and there's some people that are going to have the edge, but highly likely you're losing. And then you, if you're beating the closing line, they're going to nip that right away. 

21:47
Most of the books with player props. It's so easy to beat them and not beat the closing line, especially if you're putting in at post. So you will start, you will still be closed during the day and stuff. If you're betting and that's going to be roughly the same, but if you're betting at post, there is no closing line. There's no way that these guys can just go reference another thing and be like, yeah, like no one has it up, no one has it. 

22:07
It's so easy for all these sports books to just go look and see what the closing odds were on Basically. Even just use ESPN, you can find it. You can just go search it. That's, I think, the main difference there is. It's just harder for them to actually include that in a report and then they don't have the calculators built at this moment to say, like, if this line was 19.5 under minus 125, is that much more than 18.5 plus 100? Like you know, where is that? Much more than 18 and a half plus 100? Like you know, where is that? So they also don't even know what the exact calculation was, whereas with um, you know, like I said, the sides and totals minus three minus 110. That's obviously going to be significantly better than, you know, minus six minus 110, right? 

22:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
very easy, much easier to tell yeah, yep, totally agree, um go ahead, corby. 

22:55 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Uh, one thing on that. I think it's funny like I was just in circa and I talked to all these people like first off, we don't have to go on the debate, but it's funny to me that there's still even a closing line debate. Like I think that there are enough bookmakers who like openly say like that is the main tracking reference and fully agree, like it's easier to track it versus totals. Obviously there's more, there's more things that are also important, but like we got many friends who are on the other side of the counter like yeah, this is the primary metric that we're tracking. 

23:20
Also, one thing you referenced just then that I think is just insane to think about. People say like sports betting is such a saturated market etc. Etc. They don't even have software to to project closing line of a player prop. Yet is what you said and I agree and it's just crazy to think we're still at a spot, like an infancy spot, that you can't even project like a player props closing. Like that just sounds like a sports book. Their job is to take these bets. They should be able to project they it just blows my mind and so I agree like a player props probably can get swept under the rug a little easier, especially than college basketball totals, which you can see if this moves three points you're probably going to win. And I do think there's other factors involved obviously in the totals that you kind of bring up to make people not close. But from a side standpoint, yes, if you're beating, if you have minus four and close at seven, frequently you're in trouble there. 

24:10 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah. 

24:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think the first point you made is a good one. I mean, we've interviewed a lot of bookmakers on on this show as well. Uh, in terms of like what they're looking for in terms of sharp accounts, we've had conversations that have not made it to air and it's pretty. I mean there's obviously other factors, but every single bookmaker we've talked to is like yeah, closing line value, someone's regularly beating it. We know that person's going to be a winning player in the long run. I don't know why people still dismiss it. 

24:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It literally just became mainstream over the past three years. By the way, I think probably a lot of the guys in the community bringing it up all the time is what caused that. But it just became mainstream because it never used to be a thing where bookmakers would openly be like, yeah, if you're beating the clothes, you're doing this. They used to just like limit based on winning and market. 

24:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not talking last three years, I'm talking last like eight years. Right, but for me to like, I think sports betters inherently struggle with sample size. So you can tell, like a new sports better, you want to beat the clothes, right, and then they do it three bets in a row and they lose all those bets. And like, I personally know people like this and they're like oh what, like, what's going on? Like every time I beat the close I lose and whatever. And it's just like they. 

25:18
They think that by beating the close it's going to guarantee a winning bet and that's. They're missing the point, right, they're just missing the point of if you do this over a large sample, you're very likely to win. It's not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination, but the more you know trials, you build up, basically, the more likely you're going to have success if you're beating the close. And I think people just get so fixated on the small sample size and it gets perpetuated by a lot of content creators out there as well who are like oh, here's my CLV trophy or whatever. I, you know this line, I bet the minus three and they're minus four and a half now. It was like a negativity around it, so to speak, and it just feels much more painful. When you have that spread, you beat by a lot and it loses. 

26:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I should get one of the devs here to build some sort of calculator, because this would be pretty sweet. But I think one of the biggest things that people mistake within this industry right now and this is actually not amongst the newer people, it's typically amongst like mid-level people who are like somewhat winning and maybe have an edge they're misunderstanding truly how easy it is to lose money over a small sample size. If you have a small edge and a small sample size, the amount at which you can lose money it's there. You can go on such a cold run, you can have such a bad week, it's all within variance. But at the same time they're also underestimating and completely undervaluing how hard it is to lose when you have that same edge compounded over multiple bets. So when you look at it, it's like the amount that you can get down. 

26:53
If you can get down a thousand, 2000, 3000 bets a month and I know this is insane, we're not talking here Like everyone's going to be able to do this but if you can get down a thousand, 3000 bet sample size at an, at a big edge, for example a four or 5% edge it's going to be very unlikely to actually lose in the short run. However, the contrary like man, you're betting 10 bets Like you could lose all 10. You could lose. You can lose, certainly you, probably. I'd love to get the calculator. I'd love to just get a calculator that people can play around with Binomial distribution. 

27:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If someone looks up a binomial distribution calculator online you can plug and play, like your number of trials, the probability of success and like the number of successes yeah you, I always, I usually ask you, you pull them up on the spot. I mean like chances of losing is this. 

27:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it's just a simple distribution. 

27:39 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I've got a fun question for y'all to, so that we don't go into the clv debate. I was talking to barry the other day about this. In baseball season last year I went on my coldest run of just consecutive losses. Do either of you know the most amount of games you've lost? Let's just say the last year I lost 19 in a row. Obviously, I think season closed like 3.5% against close, so very unlikely to happen, and yet it does. As you were talking about, it can happen on a small sample a million times over 19,. That's my new record all the time. 

28:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it's unfortunate, but you know what happens no good, I I don't know the exact amount of loss. I remember my worst month ever, which I can probably pull up pretty quickly here, which was december 2021 nhl oh my god man, it was like just a blood. There was probably I probably lost 15 games in a row in a stretch where the odds were pretty close to 50 50 on on some of those picks and a lot of them were made it increasingly worse because they were like post-regulation, overtime shootout losses. So that's probably the worst stretch for me. I don't want to relive it. I was going to pull up the numbers now. I actually don't want to relive it because it's such a terrible month. But yeah, I mean it happens, it's going to happen. Like I had a week this year I didn't win an NFL bet. That's miserable. Like what are you going to do? Such is life. You just got to take it on the chin and move on and realize that like, yeah, eight-, Eight-game sample sure I could lose every bet. 

29:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know, I know it's tough, but at the same time, yeah, you keep compounding over and then you should be good in the long run and at the end of the day, like I always say this, but it literally all evens out Like we have to just know that you're going to earn a certain percent in the long run if you're doing things right. And it evens out, no-transcript, you're betting and that's the game. Yep, so anybody who runs too hot, by the way, and then lets it get to their head. That's like where you actually get into trouble betting because you're like, oh I'm, I'm running high. You don't even think about it in terms of like, oh, I'm out of 18 percent roi, this is never, ever going to sustain, so it's impossible for me to have ever won at this, it that's, bank that and expect moving forward. 

30:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're, you're not going to earn at that rate worst thing that can happen to a brand new, better, fresh out the gate is they go on a hot streak With parlays too, like absolute worst thing imaginable, because they get a taste of winning and they'll always think back to that, even when they start to lose. They'll be like, ah, what was I doing when I won like those 10 games in a row, right? And the answer is like you're doing the exact same thing you're doing now. You have no edge and you just happen to coin flip your ways to wins. But yeah, but yeah. Could go on forever about this topic, but, corby, you mentioned that with college basketball, you've bet both into the game day market and, um, the overnight market. I'm curious, because you mentioned like different, very different pros and cons to both. What are you, what are you mainly doing now in college basketball pre-tournament throughout the regular season? 

30:49 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
yeah, there's, there's times where I bet overnight. I would say in a previous life, like a few years back, I was betting it probably more than I should have. And um, live and learn, you notice, and I've got ghosted from too many accounts from it. Um, I guess, quote, unquote, limited, but just a much less fun side of limitation, um, and so I've been through that and kind of realized the morning of, like I, if I move half a point, one point, I'm really not that worried about it, if you trust your number enough. Especially I'm betting totals for the most part. So like if you're betting a college basketball total from 138 and a half to 139 and a half and you just don't see value anymore, then it's a small edge on a market that probably has a ton of variance. Also, we talked about um in the pre-show. But like there's, there's indicators like the 8 am central limit increase, like you can get a decent amount down before stuff actually starts popping. Like you, you see the groups betting 8, 30 central. I think we all kind of know who they are. Uh, the 8, 30 to 9 o'clock space is kind of like the big space of it seems like all everything is moving. So usually make sure I'm prepped and ready by 8 am central and get ready to fire on anything that I think's good. Also, like a lot of this was a worry, and the reason I would bet overnight is I'm getting so much information that I don't want it to slip through the cracks and and be like noted that a guy isn't getting on a bus or isn't hitting a flight. But over the amount of time that now I've got to see a whole bunch of information like it just doesn't, especially in these smaller markets. 

32:14
I have an example here. But in these smaller markets, like people are getting announced out and nobody even cares. Like an example I put in my notes is montana's best player got hurt in a game. It was uh, money williams got hurt in a game this year I think they were can't remember who they're playing, but the next game was weber state. Um, he got hurt in the game. He missed basically the whole year. So like it wasn't a question on if is he gonna play, he was really hurt, he's out for sure. 

32:37
And you go look at any player model on the internet and they make weaver state minus four. Market comes out, weaver state minus four and it's like dude, he's definitely not playing, he's not listed injured on ken palm, he's not listed injured on anything and he's out. And so 20 minutes before game time you could still bet Weber minus four and they won by 30 because Montana's best player, who was their entire offense, wasn't in the game. So I used to probably put too much weight on the idea that I had the information that nobody had and I was going to move 10 points when Money Williams was announced out. But in all actuality no one knows who Money Williams is, no one knows who money williams is, and I was just a little over my head to jump the gun. So at this point I'm kind of kind of betting market closer to post, I would say, uh, when it is information stuff, yo straight, straight up. 

33:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No one who's betting like, like, actual money. No one is betting real, real money that the biggest groups know who any college basketball player is. 

33:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's think about that well, yes and no, like like for the originators will know. 

33:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The originators who they might be using will know, yeah, and then that'll be baked into the numbers, but the guys actually clicking the buttons they don't know. It's impossible to follow all that. It would not be possible. 

33:43 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
College basketball, baseball, football, hockey, everything yeah, I will say from the originators, the originators I've talked to, like in these groups, they really don't know either. They're really good numbers guys, and so when I talk schema or I'll talk to these guys' originators because I just love that game, that's the game I want to play, there is nothing else. I want to be able to make my own numbers in basketball and I love watching every single player. If I wasn't doing this, I would be watching college basketball right now, and so when I would be watching college basketball right now, um and so, like, when I talk to them, they're not, they don't even know. 

34:16
Like I'll be like yo, what did you make this number with money williams out? And they're like, is he out? And like, yeah, towards acl two days ago. How do you not know this in your models? And so I think that a lot of people give a lot more praise to the college basketball market. There are efficient markets, don't get me wrong, and I do think college basketball for the most part is, but like these weber state, game two of conference play, just uh, I don't, I don't, I'm not confident that they are yeah, I think the interesting thing for me, just like my inner circle of college basketball better. 

34:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I don't originate college basketball anymore and, um, I I don't bet it at a, at a large scale, let's put it at that. But I do know people who do and like they're. They're bread and butter. And you know, two of my friends are very, very good college basketball originators. Both of them track privately on bet stamp, uh, but they, they both have accrued like a very solid roi doing so and they have fundamental differences on, like the, the value of a key player within a team. 

35:09
And you know what one of one of my friends he's. 

35:12
I don't want to to misquote him here, but he's almost like this guy's out it doesn't matter, like it's actually not going to matter, because what you're going to see is like an uptick from an effort level from everyone else on the team for that one particular game. 

35:27
Now, if he's out for an extended period of time, then it's a different story. Then there's another guy that I know and I see them argue all the time about this both winners is like you're an absolute idiot. Like how can you say that this guy who takes 25 shots for this team per game at high efficiency is not going to matter in this specific game and I honestly notice this a lot, even when the stuff is more widely reported in terms of injuries in college basketball, like kind of a bounce back back and forth, maybe an overmove one way off the information and bouncing back another. I find the college basketball market to be really interesting because it's limited in the sense that it's not. You can't bet what you can on the NBA and whatever. There's tons of originators all competing in the same spot. You get a lot of really quirky line moves. 

36:12 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, fully agree. There are a few things on this. First off, I think that both of them have potential to be right, which sounds crazy because it's the exact opposite of theories. But college basketball isn't a singular market. I would say that's where their heads are getting bat. There's major markets, there's sub-major markets and then there's extras. But the sub-majors like as we talked about, money williams not moving is huge. But in these major markets I would agree that the first move is probably too much in most cases. Like we see kevin mcculler out, it moves down sanford six and then moves up sanford seven, um and sanford. I don't think sanford covered that game. I think it ended five, uh, but like probably too much of a move at the start. Mcculler out they have a four-star behind. 

36:51
But there's times the biggest thing with college basketball over the pros and kind of what I was talking about earlier is there are players who don't matter, but when out they change the entire scheme of a game. So example off the top of my head three years ago Loyola Marymount this is the worst example and I'm sorry, for people fall asleep while I talk about this but loyola maramount's center, seven foot one. He averaged probably just guessing three points a game. Not good seven foot one with him being on the court he forces them to play slower. He can't get down the court fast enough. He's not very good but like they run an offense that's probably 200th in the nation in tempo. Three minutes into the first game he gets hurt. They put in a 6-8 center and now they are one of the 50 fastest teams in the nation. So his if you're using a player tracking model, his number would not be worth that much to the overall basis of the game. But they just turn Loyola from like one of the nation's slowest teams to one of the nation's fastest teams. So I think less on what does this player bring from a shots and points per game, more, what does it bring to the overall scheme of a team Like Kansas when they lose? 

37:55
Mccullers really doesn't change identity as much as people probably gave credit, for he is a great basketball player and inevitably they needed him for a team like Gonzaga. But I don't think that they have to change scheme. But then you go look at somebody like Tyler Kolick who was out. I know y'all saw the oblique thing for marquette. That line moved three and a half points and though that sounds crazy, like that's not enough. Tyler colic is their entire offense. He runs, he runs all the sets. He calls the plays like he is the team. So he's worth more than three and a half and I understand player models can only go three and a half at that point but he was worth at least five and if it was move five I'd probably say that's too much, uh, but at the time I think you could get, like creighton, six and a half with colic out, which was a great price. I think they ended up winning by eight the entry. 

38:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
One of the interesting things for me just to keep going on on this one topic and then we'll move on is that other major sports, ml, mlb example, right, like I I'm not I'm not as well versed in the mlb as I used to be, but I just Trout is out for one game. Okay, you're gonna have another replacement outfielder that comes in, but with like a pretty large sample of stats, usually, whether it's from this season or the previous season, you can't, you pretty much have a general idea, no matter what what he's worth in the NBA, you see an injury, right, and you you everyone can kind of project how the minutes are going to change. Maybe not with certainty, but there's a good idea of, like this guy's going to get five more minutes a game. This with college basketball. 

39:18
You have so many guys who get little minutes. They're like maybe a true freshman. You have no sample and now all of a sudden they're like elevated into a starting lineup and I think because of that you can get so many different projections on that particular player. You might look into his past and be like, well, this guy was recruited at this level or whatever. Or maybe you just talk to people within the school. This guy's amazing, whatever he's not, but I think that's what makes college basketball especially when you have that many teams in a sense tougher but also can open up like another edge, just based off of knowing that information yeah, some would say tougher. 

39:55 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I would say the exact opposite easier. If you're willing to put in the work. Um, now is it worth the effort. Like you can't bet as much as, like I mean, if you're somebody betting just bukus of money, it's probably not worth your time to go through all 365 teams. But, um, like how you say, if you can, if you have the ability to project easily what a player is worth in the amount of minutes they're going to play, so can sportsbooks, and so that's how I see it. I see is, uh, the more variance the better for me, if I'm willing to put in the effort. 

40:21
Like an example, seventh woods at north carolina seventh was a five-star athlete. We've all seen his highlight tape. It's all zero minutes north carolina. No one ever got hurt, he never joined, he never got to play. Um, and if he did, he's a five-star athlete and he would done great, and that's just something that would have not been baked in, because I mean, third year there he hadn't seen the floor and yet he was a five-star athlete, and so it's just. Are you willing to like pay attention to the underlying metric of if a player is good, which it's just being an extreme nerd, or you could have an alan boston notebook this big and then you could get it done. 

40:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, we said a while back on an episode that if you do watch the games, you could get an edge from watching the games, and we did at the time say it was more for college football and basketball. This is a prime example here. Like people know in the NFL who the players are In the NBA, certainly people know who the players are that are going to get minutes when certain players are out. But yeah, ncaacaa basketball, who knows, bro, that's just a straight crapshoot. 

41:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well that, well that his his example of uh loyal to marymount center right yeah, and totals and stuff live total in that game, even if you didn't bet a pregame, if you were to just watch the beginning of that game and be like, wow, this team is is moving up the court much quicker because they don't have this seven foot center that needs to get up and down the court Like that's an edge to be had. I just don't like question for you, corby. I'm not sure if you're involved in live markets. I wonder how attainable that is, just because there's so many games going on at once. Like how do you how many screens do you need? Is what you're asking. Well, the Rex Byers setup right like 16 screens on the wall or whatever. 

41:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But I don't Probably need at least eight screens to take advantage. 

41:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, but even then can you pay? 

41:56 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
attention to that much at that time. Right, I would say you Y'all had Bud Elliott on once. I think I talked to Bud a lot and I think he's had a really good point. It's like you don't watch every game, you don't watch every possession, you don't really care, you have your. If St John's is playing and Posh Alexander gets hurt, butler now. But Posh Alexander gets hurt, no matter who their backup point guard is, they play slower. Posh Alexander brings the ball up faster than anybody in the nation. So I'm not watching them, I just have the game on and if I see Posh gets hurt, like their backup center might not be a differential in speed. So you have the circle, like Loyola Marymount, I have the seven foot one center circle because their backup is 6'8 and should probably be a small forward, not a center. So you have these circled. It's cluster injuries. Um, that would completely impact the team you don't actually watch. I mean I have three screens, so, uh, three, three is plain sufficient, for me at least. What? 

42:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
what are the live injury feeds, like for college back, like because nba you have like underdog right and it's like something happens. 

42:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The world knows about it right away but that's just because popularity of the sport, that's because people are legit watching that and then can feed it. Same with NFL. You'll get notifications For college. It's the same as you. You know what you're saying. All these games people aren't watching. Some of these games you can't even watch. We're in Canada, obviously, so we don't have good college coverage. 

43:12
But some of these games you got to grab a stream and especially for college football, it looks like they're playing in front, in front of like barely any fans. Dude, I'm sorry for. 

43:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For a general rant here in canada. I used to work for the score and like we used to cover march madness to the absolute max, like in and out of games, whatever dude the current coverage is the worst. Comment don't even get this week because there was curling showing on one channel instead of the. 

43:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They go late. Okay, so you're going to get a rant, corby, I know you can't even imagine what goes on here in Canada. Anyone who's from Canada is going to be knowing exactly what we're talking about. The Thursday game, the first game of the tournament. They went late to the game on coverage. We were watching leo routins on the screen talk and they're like we're gonna now join the game and they missed the tip off. It was two, nothing when they went over in the first game. This, how bad the coverage is. They constantly swap around the tvs. So you're constantly, if you have multiple tvs, yeah, rebat, recalibrate, and you're missing games that are actual, real games, unless you have whatever the online is TSN Plus yeah, that's a joke, man, what a joke, bro. And there's five TSNs, there's five channels, there's curling One show like fucking motor racing. 

44:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like some guys on motorcycles, I'm like what is happening. 

44:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's never more than four games on at a time, through March 9th. 

44:29 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
The best news is Mad Dog from ESPN said curling is the third hardest sport of all sports. So at least you get to watch some curling action. 

44:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's really not. I've been curling within the last month. There is a steep learning curve, Don't get me wrong. Your first few shots are going to be like you're not going to have the touch, but over time you get your better balance. 

44:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You start to learn. So sounds that's. I don't think it's that hard, because a friend of mine does men's league curling once a week. He's been doing it for years, but it's just once a week and his team ended up playing against like a pro team. I think he played played one of the guys they obviously lost, but just the fact that you could play against them and I don't want listen. 

45:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's no one who plays curling that's watching this because it's like exclusively 60 year olds plus and our age demographic on circles off is much lower than that for the most part. But I will say I'm not slandering curling. It's actually very fun to play and I'd highly suggest, if you've never done it, to at least try it because it's really fun. It's like it's really fun. It's a fun team game, it's great. But come on, man, this is March Madness. You paid for the rights for March Madness in Canada. We don't need to see the preliminary round of the briar or whatever the hell you ever watch SportsCenter after now. 

45:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You ever try to watch SportsCenter. Maybe Zach has you watch SportsCenter. You're like, oh, let's watch some college basketball highlights. First thing, oh, let's watch some college basketball highlights. First thing that comes up is going to be nhl. Fine, we'll go through nhl. Then they go raptors. Okay, all good, give me the tournament now. Then they're like oh, some random, what's that hockey league? I don't even know what the league is, the you know. Do you know what hockey league I'm talking about? Tsn bought the rights to it, some random men's hockey league, but it's like below ohl coverage. They play they that. Then you get the Breyer, tim Horton's Breyer, which is curling. Then they show Nembhard. Just because he's Canadian, they'll show his one game, then back commercial break, then Caitlin Clark and then finally you're like all right, let's get into the number one seed facing another team. It's ridiculous. 

46:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
40 minutes in. I'm going to call you out on that because they would have put the purdue highlights off the top for zach edie. 

46:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, this was. This was sorry that I was probably watching the day when edie didn't play the night someone on gonzaga's canadian as well nemhardt is on. 

46:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Uh, I don't even forget what team he's on. He's on gonzaga now, isn't he? His brother was also on gonzaga. They're both from aurora corby would. 

46:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, oh yeah, born and raised Aurora. Yeah, so they'll play like one or two Canadian guys that are in the tourney and then it's done, that's it, that's it. 

46:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You don't get the rest of that. 

46:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What a bad rant. 

46:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't even think. It's just agitate. We haven't even got to tweets that trigger us yet. This is like I guess executive media decisions that trigger us every year. 

47:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And, and they did used to have incredible coverage on the score 100%, right. 

47:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep, corby, when we post this video whether it's to YouTube or like a little teaser clip to Circles Off HQ on Twitter there's going to be some replies immediately that are going to be like ah, why you have Corby Craig on? This guy is blowing up edges for other people. He's stealing a bunch of stuff. This came up in the Right Angle Sports Discord a few years ago. 

47:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Is that Discord still going? 

47:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know the details. 

47:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know. I think it might be toast. 

47:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know what's going on. I don't want to speculate as to what's happening with that Discord, but I do want to give you the opportunity to talk about that a little bit. First and foremost, what are people referring to by eroding the edges for other people, and why is there a subsection of gambling Twitter that thinks you're a scumbag? 

48:01 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yes, listen, everybody has their own opinion and I respect anyone's opinion, but I at least you know, get a chance. I was put in the RAS discord to give my chance to explain and was instantly banned, so it's OK actually my who banned my they? 

48:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
have some notorious banners. 

48:17 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I have no clue, but I will say my second place for minus EV was gonna be Cal Poly spreads, but you know I didn't want to go that low. They they were notorious for betting Cal's poly spreads, but no, so, basically. So, basically, a few years back and I'm going to play a fine line here because I don't want to talk about the quote-unquote edge but a few years back there was a guy that came up to me. He was in my Discord, he paid for my Discord, he posted this edge in every community that I've ever seen Discord-wise RAS me. There were a few groups that he was posting these plays into. And he came up to me and he's like hey, can you back test, can you make a model and back test this opinion I have? I was like, yeah, man, of course, like it'll take me a few days. It's kind of a lot of effort. I got you ran it back, tested it and it was decent. Like it wasn't anything crazy. It was. 

49:03
It was a fun bet that if y'all have seen before. And, uh, this is an opinion or a theory, that seemed cool and I was like, yeah, let's, let's run it. Got my dev, we made it, we ran it, came up pretty decent and the first bet that it popped up was a UAB bet. So I was like, of course, listen, I'm going to post this. He's posting them all in my community, he's posting them in our ass, he's posting them everywhere. So, like what, I'm not saying that I thought of this genius idea after it, when everybody hated me it's all good. 

49:31
I took UAB. It lost. It was a minus 54 and it lost. And so when it was posted, everyone was like oh, you're eroding someone's edge. And listen, I get it. I understand where it came from. If you didn't understand the situation, I talked to the guy. The guy was fine with it, we've made amends. And then two days ago I posted a picture in Vegas and they're and like why are you hanging out with that kid? He, he takes people's edges. And it's like dude, it was one decision on one tweet that I've posted over probably 10,000 tweets. I did five days of work to make this and I saw nothing wrong with it. And I talked to the guy after and I was like, listen, I genuinely apologize, I lost and if I would have want to give you the money, it's fine. Like, it's not about anything other than my first model pop of making this was UAB and I was like yo, that's my boys, I know this center, I'm betting on this. And it lost. So if they would have scored, it would have been a different talk. 

50:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough. Yeah, it's tough. Obviously sometimes people get a lot of hate in the industry, but it is what it is, man You're doing. 

50:28 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Fine, I don't think it matters. Yeah, and one more thing on is like, genuinely, I apologize to this guy. I don't apologize to any other person who who like blasphemy on my name, I don't care, I apologize to this one guy and that's all that matters. This is just kind of like a clear the air, because I know I never it's like the the m&m rap, like if I tell you everything that I've done. You can't really like hate on the fact that, like you have things. The comments below this is still going to come up, and I just wanted to at least hit it nail on head to try to explain my side of the story before anyone talks in the comments, which is fine, obviously, do whatever you want to do, but I'm at a good spot in my heart and I feel pretty good about it. 

51:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Another one for you. So Discord as a platform has completely blown up over the past couple of years. As I mentioned, I had made my first Discord account because of your Discord. You were the first guy that was building all these bots that I recall. Obviously you weren't the first guy in the world, but where did that stem from and why did you choose Discord? I'm always curious about that. Is it still the top spot to be for betting stuff? 

51:27 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, it's an interesting dynamic because I just got back from Vegas. I'll bring that into a light in a second. But yeah, I would say that I was the first gambling and I don't say that as like a flex, I just truly think it because the engineering kids I was with are all from overseas. They all talk on whatsapp or discord. So I found myself on discord every single day talking to these kids to study thermo, which I still failed. Uh, that's a whole different story. But just found myself on discord and they had bots built for like problems, because it's a really easy ui or api to build bots into and I was like yo, I can scrape my paypal feed and then every month, if somebody cancels, instead of me having to go through cancel and remove their discord access, I can have an api. Do it also, like vip discourse were the thing, or vip twitter sort of thing at the time, and that just sucks. 

52:12
You don't get to talk to the people who are genuinely giving these people. As you know, johnny, I was what 2020? I was 23 years old 22 years old, no, 21 years old when I started the Discord. These people truly changed my life while I was just voicing my opinion on me building player models. So I wanted to be able to talk to them and I put a stat in our little conversation sheet. But the craziest thing to me is, out of the first 350 people that joined that Discord, 210 of them are still active today, still pay me every month. So I gave them their own chat. They're called OGs. I can tag them. I saw a few in Vegas this week but like they have been in it for almost seven years, they've seen me grow for 23% of my life. They've been able to talk to me. So I just think Discord is a cool community in the sense of like. If you're not fake, you can genuinely meet people who are good, and most people in life are good. I like to believe, but no, I think the interesting thing about Discord is there's companies now that build those bots and they charge a fee for the backend. 

53:10
I was in Vegas with the company WAP. If anybody's seen WAP, I have no affiliation in them, but I will give them the biggest shout out. The owner of that place is just so forward thinking at 23 years old that it's easy to say that I built that and I could have made a company out of it and I don't care, because how great of things they're building. And you asked the question of, like, what is like? Discords aren't aren't the end all be all. I came up with that idea one day and now everybody's just on it and I'm not saying that I'm some master creator, but there's always going to be better. 

53:40
Um, and I got to see that again, not a plug but wop is building a basically a discord clone. That is more specific for entrepreneurs. So like if you wanted to have a sports pick community and everyone was there, like let's say, let's say, best stamp made a integration with the WAP app, then any community who wanted best stamp integration could pay a dollar per user or something and have a bet stamp UI within their app. So really cool. I'm not saying it's the future, I have no clue but I do think there's a lot to improve, like I mean, I mean, circuit is still manual, moves, lines, more or less software for any kind of conversation piece, like there's. There's so much innovation that needs to be done in this industry and somebody has to do it. It's not Discord, they don't care and I do think that it'll be rapidly improving product. 

54:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm familiar with WAP. I just checked them out. I know they're leaning into sports betting, but potentially I'll reach out to you after. I'll connect with the founder. If you do know him, he's great. Okay, random one. I saw Rob put this in the notes. I didn't even see this. It might be a late ad. Do you have any thoughts on the Shohei Otani allegations? 

54:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
One second before we even get into it. I haven't plugged this on the show yet, but I yet. But we had. I had mentioned a long time ago that I was going to get a blue jays show. Hey, otani jersey. I didn't have to get one because a good friend of ours, china, china maniac, previously on the show, sends me this blue jays jersey. Uh, with otani on the back of it. 

55:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're gonna hang into the studio. 

55:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're gonna get this up in the studio and I actually have a couple more that I will wear to jays games as well. I will 100 be that guy, but uh, god sent this one. I'm thinking if Otani goes down for a huge gambling scandal, the stuff might actually be worth more. 

55:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like people are scared about Blue Jays Otani, no forget about the Blue Jays one. 

55:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean this is, but like everyone's in. Anyways, corby, let's just get your. I want to just get your thoughts. Generally speaking, I have a million things to say about the Shohei Otani situation Seems like you're digging into some memorabilia over there. 

55:38 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Sorry, I had to get my Otani bat. I got to show you all it's upside down. I have an Otani bat and at first I was kind of worried about the valuation of this bat if all of this comes true. But Rob's kind of talked me into the idea that this thing might be worth more. So I got to put this puppy back in the case Put it back in the case, otani signed bat. 

55:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's nice, that's nice, oh man. 

55:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's actually a sick piece of memorabilia. 

56:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
On an Otani Jays jersey. 

56:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, the Jays jersey, but the bat. 

56:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, oh, for sure Otani bat. 

56:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a good piece. Have you been following this? 

56:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like a Pete Rose signed ball. 

56:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, we talked about, we joked about this off air. But yeah, like getting Pete Rose signed bet slips nowadays. I'm surprised nobody's tried to do this yet. 

56:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
From the win. 

56:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm surprised Pete Rose has not himself tried to monetize this. 

56:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Signing an old Reds bet. Slip on him betting on the team 100%, I know Sign. 

56:32 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Pete Rose. 

56:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Cincinnati Reds $100,000 losing bet slip. 

56:36 - Zack Phillips (Other)
First person to have it will be Darren Revell. Revell will have it. Oh my God. 

56:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Revell will pay $1.6 million for that. 

56:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, Wow, it'll go right next to the Martin Luther King memorabilia that he likes to talk about one month of every year. Corby, go ahead your thoughts on Shohei Otani. 

56:55 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, I will say I don't keep up with news too much other than like injury stuff, so I really don't know the depth of it. Y'all probably know more than me. I'm curious to listen to y'all but I will say I saw the video. I saw the video of him playing like what I would assume is the baseball version of quarters. If y'all saw that video and, uh, it was a pretty, it was a pretty bad. Look, hey, listen, he's my favorite baseball player in quite some time. But that was pretty telling. 

57:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not gonna lie to you what, what, what videos this could be? By the way, you never know the authenticity of these videos. 

57:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Now, it could be a deep fake no, yeah, they could be this, this is coming have you seen this video? 

57:29 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
no, I haven't seen it, we got to play it, produce it, basically, you basically pull that up you basically bounce the ball onto the ledge and then, if it rolls off, you lose, and if it stays on, you went oh, I did see that in the dugout and he did it with his interpreter, did he not? Yeah, it was pretty telling you know what I? 

57:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I could see how that could be. Was he gambling on it like? 

57:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
we don't know, they were laughing about it and having a great time. 

57:51 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
He's probably competitive. He's a pro athlete and baseball is such a boring sport of so much downtime I mean gambling in the locker room would surprise me, but I don't know. 

58:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
$4 million is pretty telling. There's no way that's coming up on Twitter. Zach, I've got to call him out. 

58:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think I saw it on Twitter. I think I saw it Zach's Twitter searching. 

58:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Otani plays quarters in dugout on Twitter Exact word, that's not coming up. 

58:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's not. Anyways, I did see it. I did see it and I honestly thought it was funny. I thought it was pretty funny when I watched it. 

58:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, rob, what are your thoughts? Do you think he placed the bets? My thoughts, or should I give a quick recap for everyone? Sure, okay, I'll give a quick recap, because I dug into this yesterday. 

58:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We were digging, we were digging. 

58:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So basically I'll give an unabridged version of what happened. If you follow gambling, it'll be a cool story. So, Otani, basically what happened is people were investigating some local PPH bookie big time PPH bookie in LA, when Otani was on the Angels, and what they found was, I think again, not I'm speculating here, but I think they would have had access to his bank account. They saw big transfers from Shohei Ohtani's actual bank account that went to this guy's bank account. So obviously people started to dig into it. What the hell, why does this bookie who's receiving 500K wires, multiple $500,000 wires from Shohei Ohtani, what happened? So I believe Ohtani's spokesperson I'm not sure if it was his agent or if it was like a special spokesperson- they hired a spokesperson. 

59:23
For him, for Ohtani, specifically, because he doesn't speak English and his spokesperson comes out and says, all right, shohei Otani. What happened was he didn't place these bets, it was his interpreter who's that guy? Who was his friend since 2013. He was his interpreter on the Angels. He was his current interpreter on the dodgers, a guy who's making a. You know, I think it was eighty thousand dollar salary and he was just betting in large and getting super in debt. Getting super in debt. He was, uh, absolutely I don't even know how he was that bad, by the way, because to lose that much, apparently lost 4.5 mil to this pph bookie. He claims he used to bet on draft kings but they limited him and he went. 

01:00:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, that's, that's a joke that is a joke that would be funny. That's california. 

01:00:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Obviously I'm joking but he uh, so he, he, uh, he bet with this pph book. He lost all this money. And then his story was and this was through otani's interpreter, through otani spokesperson that he went to otani and he had to come clean. He said, listen, I fucked up. I I lost this money gambling. I I have to pay this debt. I know you're going to be disappointed in me, can you help me out? And then he said Otani said yeah, I'm disappointed in you, but I'm going to bail you out. I'll pay the money for you. Obviously, otani's a big contract. He's like sure I'll send the money. So apparently this guy and Otani both logged into Otani's bank together and they sent 500k wire, which was the most he could send over the next couple months. They made, they made hole in the debt 500k at a time. So that was the story that they went with and Otani's spokesperson that they hired directly gave this story to the media and said this is, this is what you got to run with. This is what happened. 

01:01:00
Right before they're about to air the story, they have some sort of team meeting with the Dodgers and the Dodgers say listen, this is what happened, this is going to be a big story coming. Everyone just be aware of this in the media. This is what happened. It's involving one of our teammates. Here you go. 

01:01:15
Apparently, at this point, otani and this guy are like together in the room. Otani doesn't speak English, but they're buddy-buddy. They're seen in the dugout playing whatever, laughing it up. Then the guy just randomly reaches out to the I think it was ESPN and these media outlets and says hey, that's not the story and they're like what happened. And he's like well, technically we were still just talking to his own interpreter to get through him. We never actually talked to Shohei himself. He doesn't speak any English interpreter. To get through him. We never actually talked to Shohei himself. He doesn't speak any English. We didn't hire a new guy. So this guy's just been lying to us and like sorry about this, but this is not the actual story. 

01:01:50
The real story is this guy just stole the four million from Otani's bank account. Otani had no idea this was happening. He's not involved in gambling, he didn't send any money and we're going to be going to the authorities and then they aired that story as the story now. So obviously a lot of fishy business here, something. I don't know what's going on. But uh, overall, yeah, I'd love to get rob's thoughts. What do you think actually happened? Because we're in the gambling space. 

01:02:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'd love to comment on this I think otani had a very simple press conference where he, you know, made some high level claims. I didn't bet on the game. Whatever, I think his story is most likely to be true. 

01:02:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What that the guy? So what do you think happened? This guy bet into the book. The interpreter. 

01:02:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's tons of questions that Otani didn't take questions at his presser. So, whatever, we're gonna be left wondering what happened in some situations. But some people are like how could this guy possibly get like four and a half million dollars worth of credit over a few years? It's like use your brain. I mean he probably went to a bookie and said, hey, listen, I want to get down, I want to place bets, I want a huge credit limit. The guy's like well, you know, I can't. He's like well, you know I can't. He's like well, I, you know I'm, I'm making these bets for for my buddy, you know, shohei Otani. We got to keep it on the down low, like it's it's. 

01:03:09
There's many ways where you could get a high credit limit by just lying. It happens in the industry every single day to a bunch of scumbag bettors out there. So this guy could easily get a credit limit in some account, some capacity. It's also making a lot of money with minimal expenses. Mlbs cover Dodgers, angels, mlb Dodgers, whatever covering most of the expenses he's making $80,000 and no expenses. 

01:03:34
That's tough to be losing $400.5 million 100%, but at the end of the day it's a very plausible story. Then you know, we have a mutual friend me and Johnny who handles like some high profile bank accounts, let's say in Toronto I don't know what bank they were using to send wires or whatever, but reached out to this guy Toronto based guy might be very different and like listen, how could this possibly happen? He's like oh, it happens all the time with like high profile people where there's money coming in and out of their account, huge amounts, there's no other authorization needed. Most likely there was some sort of 2FA that was required. This would require the translator excuse me to have access to Otani's phone, maybe computer, whatever email in some capacity, maybe computer, whatever email in some capacity, but it's not that far-fetched that like your good buddy for the past 10 years, like really good buddy from what we understand best friends, would be able to access your email potentially or something. 

01:04:37
I think that there's obviously holes in the story and potential flaws that we don't have the answers for and that whenever we don't have all the info or answers for specific things, there's always going to be speculation as to whether this is truthful or not. But I think the most likely scenario is that Otani is just telling the truth and, in all honesty, I think if he had anything to do with this or had known, I do strongly believe that legal counsel would have advised him to not admit fault from a betting side of things, but possibly in a way where it would have been viewed in the public light as like. Okay, like if he came out and said listen, my buddy came to me, said he was in debt a lot of money. He didn't give me the details. I told him I'd pay off his debt. I did that. My bad, didn't know where it was going. 

01:05:34
Okay, that's like a little bit more plausible. He just flat out denied it and there's going to be exhaustive, thorough investigations into this. I cannot possibly see him flat out denying any of this stuff without that being the story. So my money would be on that. I do agree that there's other possibilities because we don't know all the answers. But to me and listen, I like shohei otani too so what do you think? 

01:06:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
what Corby? What do you think happened? 

01:06:04 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I really have no opinion, but I have a question for both of you. All right, so we're talking about possible situations which happened. Let's forget what we think happened. Now let's do possible outcomes. There's only three. Do you think? A nothing happens. B he gets Pete Rose, or C he gets Michael Michael Jordan. Which of the three do you think is most possible? 

01:06:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I would say nothing happens nothing happens he's too big a star, and if the other guys, I'll tell you my theory, because then it will go into it. This is more of a long shot. I'm speculating a lot here, but just the way the thing went down, when they're like no, wait a second, actually we didn't hire another translator and now this guy is just openly coming in and taking the fall and be like no, yeah, I did lie, I did, I did all this stuff, whatever that to me it's comedic, but it could be like I know it could be a spokesperson who they didn't have before. 

01:06:56
Yeah, why would they hire a spokesperson and he's not a guy that could just communicate with Shohei in his native language automatically? 

01:07:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But he's like we need a state, we need to figure out what happened from Shohei. Shohei apparently tells like the interpreter and the interpreter just gives a different story. It's insane. 

01:07:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's insane that that happened. I mean, it's funny what I think, what I think honestly happened, which is this would probably be about a plus 850. If you, if, if I go into detail it's like a plus 2000, but likely, I'm thinking. So. Interpreter placed the bets, got stuck to 4.5, went to otani and said hey, buddy, I messed up. Give me the money please, can we send it? Otani said you're an absolute moron, but you're my boy, I'm gonna bail you out and I'll send the money. He then sent the money knowingly. Otani sent the money and it went to this guy and he said we got to keep this under wraps. The guy said don't worry. I told the guy no one's gonna see it and see anything. 

01:07:53
Story comes to light and then here's where I think what happens is they're like well, we gotta just say what happened, because I don't want otani to get in trouble. So so this guy goes, I placed all the bets. Shohei just sent the money to bail me out. While this is about to go, they look and they're like the legal team of him, because that's when the legal team got involved. At that point the legal counsel was like because, if you read the story, the legal counsel then took over at this point, and then we're the only ones communicating with the media, correct, which is obviously a smart thing to do in this scenario. So once the legal counsel took over, they switched it up and they said no. And so what I'm thinking is the legal team was like even just him, sending the money knowingly and not reporting this and sending it to an offshore bookie to cover. 

01:08:39
This is a massive no-no and could open us up to a lot of risk with our contract with the league, with all these things. The only thing that actually gives us no risk is if we literally say Shohei was robbed. He didn't have anything to do with this. He never actually sent any money, and how could he be at fault if this guy stole money from his bank account and did whatever with it? He has zero knowing of it. 

01:09:04
And then they went to the guy and they're like yo, you got us in this mess. You're the one who messed up. We have to press charges against you and take this to police. You got to take the fall for Shohei to protect him and you might end up doing time for this, but we got you on the way out. That's my theory and I theory and I'm like that's it. And then basically they. Then this guy comes forward now he's like yeah, I was lying all this shit. I placed all the bets, I stole the money from shohei, I sent the money from his bank account. Even though that did he send it, he wouldn't rob his buddy, I think. I think it's more likely that he fucked up and then he went through it. Go ahead, corby. 

01:09:38 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I've got one thing on this and I I don't know because I haven't dug into it, but does when was this transaction done? Because if it was recent the thing you were just talking it makes a ton of sense. Because, like if shohei had been placing bets like, let's say, over a time horizon or forever, then it's not really like the book, like in my head. Why is the bookie being investigated right now? Most importantly in my head would be like if I was a random bookie who I had been taking some interpreters bets for forever, and then I get a $4.5 million transaction from Shohei Otani, you tell your boys about that, like that's great, you don't. And then, like that, tell their boys, tell other people, and then you get investigated. So it's like if there was only one transaction from Otani, I think his case of like he had no clue makes a lot more sense. But if it was a constant flow, of Ohtani. 

01:10:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was multiple Apparently it was multiple 500K transactions until they cleared it. 

01:10:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We don't know the timeframe over which that happened. Listen, I've seen enough players go broke like NBA players, mlb players, nhl players over their career because they've mishandled money. People have been stealing money from them for over the course of many years. That kind of went unnoticed. I don't think it's that far-fetched. I really don't Like. He's a great baseball player. I don't know that. The guy is like a super sharp guy that's paying attention to his bank accounts on a daily basis. 

01:10:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But, bro, bro, he signed a nine. What is his deal? 900 million. Yeah, you sign a 900 million dollar deal. Your bank account is being hawked. I don't care who you are. There's somebody in there hawking that account and if there's not, there's 38 guys lined up trying to hawk that account and give you investment advice. Yeah, there's no way that money gets sent. Maybe not, no way, I'm not. I'm not trying to speak in absolutes here. Highly unlikely that money gets siphoned without him knowing or without somebody on his finance team at least knowing, and maybe the interpreter pulled some scheme and then he went, okay, back, back and forth and he lied to him and because remember, everybody's communicating through the interpreter but think about how much money this guy makes for for nobody to be at least hawking his account. 

01:11:37
Be like yo where and I know it's not that much money in 4.5 mil on a whatever, almost a billion dollars that he's set to earn, and he hasn't earned all of it yet though. So like 4.5 mil leaving your account, so it's a lot of money in any scenario, even if you have a billion. 

01:11:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pure speculation, we'll move on. But if you're a bank account, you know you're running a bank in California, probably speaking English. They're going to reach out to Shohei's interpreter Whenever there's like some sort of like issue with the transaction. They'd be like hey, you know what what's, you know there's, we're noticing some stuff here and the guy's going to say like, yeah, I talked to Shohei about that. You know he's just loaning money to they put loan yeah yeah. 

01:12:23
That's another, that's what show Like. You know what I'm saying, you know how it can get lost in translation, I don't know. Weird what I will say. I feel very confidently that this will manifest itself again like seven to 10 years down the line, like, even if it gets wiped under the rug now, this interpreter guy will change his story down the road or something, anything for attention. 

01:12:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, it's his boy, bro. He respects him. He'll take the fall, He'll take the fall here but, he was the one who got him in the mess. That's where it's different. I don't think I wouldn't consider him taking a fall for Otani. He got in the mess, bro. He placed the bets. 

01:13:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think anyone thinks Shohei placed the bets. I think lots of people think that. I think lots of people believe that Shohei there's images of him at college basketball games. 

01:13:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Now Also, I do believe it was confirmed that none of the bets were on MLB Correct. 

01:13:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was international soccer bets. International soccer bets. 

01:13:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If we see Shohei start watching some international soccer. 

01:13:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm sure people have been scouring tape forever to see if shohei was at like any soccer there's no, there's gonna be him on his phone in the dugout sweating a game. 

01:13:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That would be all-time evidence. That would be all-time anyways, we do have the tweets that trigger us. Let's hit it, zach, hit it, zach, hit it I don't know what we're yelling about. 

01:13:39 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I've never seen you mad I get paved. 

01:13:41 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you care? 

01:13:43 - Zack Phillips (Other)
it's only a game. 

01:13:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Why you have to be mad all right, tweets that trigger us here. Um, got got like a trifecta that I I really wanted to get to here and, corby, I want to get your thoughts on this. Uh, this, video. 

01:13:57 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Stepping up this little side graphic. Sorry to interrupt you. This is, uh, this is fancy. Do they see this on the screen. 

01:14:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, exactly, zach is nodding. 

01:14:04
Yes, that they see this yeah, no, I will say zach makes these like these incremental improvements over time that we don't even know are happening. But then I watch back the youtube video and I'm like man, what zach, excellent effort this week. I don't offer to pay him more or anything, I just say excellent effort. Great job, zach, but yeah, we get, uh, whatever. I don't offer to pay him more or anything, I just say excellent effort. Great job, zach, but yeah, we get whatever. I don't see it. You see it, corby. 

01:14:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've got it. I'm going to have to rewatch the episode for what I just called Zach Jamie about 15 minutes ago. I can't tell if he was visibly upset or not. I'll have to look it back in the episode. No, no, no. 

01:14:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't think he was. He doesn't anyways. I was visibly upset when I saw this tweet. It's from the bleacher report betting account uh creighton wins and favorites go eight no. 

01:14:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Today fire legendary uh tags ryan ribeiro, before watches was this 80, no money line or spread I believe he bet every um money line favorite in the round of 32. 

01:15:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
okay, and went 15 and one. Is this the video? Uh, zach, can we play this video? Yeah, let's play this video. Every Moneyline favorite in the round of 32. Okay, and went 15-1. Is this the video, zach, can we play this video? Yeah, let's play this video. Oh, my God, let's go, let's go. Here we go. This is it. 

01:15:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All you underdog Moneyline losers. You thought you hacked the system. You can't hack the system. I am the fucking system. Come on, let's get you. 

01:15:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Slow. Come on. Corby, I'm sure you remember where you were when you had your first winning day, just like this guy. 

01:15:34 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, I wasn't wearing Mets clothes. I know that for sure. 

01:15:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, listen, I can't handle stuff like this. It really, really aggravates me when people go over the top for, like, a winning betting day and this guy bet eight favorites. I'm not saying that like there's no skill involved with winning favorite bets, because there is. You can find favorites that are missed. You want eight favorites. I am the system. We'll go down in infamy. We might as well get that on our soundboard. Going forward, zach as well. I am the system. We'll go down in infamy. We might as well get that on our sound board. Going forward, zach as well. 

01:16:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I am the system. That's a funny one. 

01:16:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know. I think it's fine to celebrate your bets. Don't get me wrong. You're betting on sports. There should be some emotion attached to it. This, to me, was like way over the top. Way over the top and, personally, based off of my experience not a rule of fact, but based off of my experience not a rule of fact, but based off of my experience these bets probably meant, uh, significant. They meant something to him. To react this way like people usually go nuts, like this when they don't experience it regularly, like I'm sorry, I'm this is speaking from experience or like this, this is like some serious money that he like, maybe like back against the wall, type of money that he threw down on the game and they happened to win Just my two cents. I hate this stuff. It really bothers me. There's more bleacher. They turn this into a whole thing and because I saw this one video, I just kept getting served up like every other one in the sequence poor guy. 

01:17:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, corby. So based on just this video, right? So you see a bucket which presumably has some, maybe some, alcohol. You see a fiji water on the table. This guy had a backwards cap and a mets uh quarter zip and shorts. At a sports book or some sort of venue with a bunch of papers on the table. Just based on this alone, give me a percentage likelihood that this guy's a winning better 99. This is my guy go back up. 

01:17:34 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Look at this backwards. Hat in the sports book listen you got the shorts on. You got a little bit of you got a little bit of breeze going. Everybody knows sports book gets a little hot in there. Listen, he has the sleeves rolled up. He knows what he's doing. He comes in, he is the system. Johnny See, what you forget is you think you are the system and you're not. 

01:17:51
This guy and we'll have a video in a minute. He is Look, he even trimmed his stash for this moment. He knew I'm going to be on video when I go 8-0 today. But yeah, I agree, this kind of seems like the guy who, if he went 7-1 here, probably goes home, probably drinks too many beers, upset with life Not going to the gym today because he lost a bet. But I'm glad he won At the end of the day, though. I hate these kind of things. I never want the other side to win. So at least he went 8-0. And I did not, because I did not bet all favorites. So, listen, his system is better than my system. 

01:18:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's throwing some shade at a friend of ours here who is doing the whole underdog system. He's been $1,000 on every single underdog. Matty, if you're listening, matty Betts, matty Betts, sorry about this year, but you cleaned up the last two years and we still got time. We still got time this year. A lot of favorites still in. 

01:18:41 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I think the underdogs outright are still up. I could be wrong there. 

01:18:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But not in the round of 32. 

01:18:46 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Oh no, not around the 32. But overall I think up. I could be wrong there, but there was a few really big upsets. 

01:18:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There was a few, I'm not sure Are they up still, they got absolutely decimated last Saturday, sunday, for sure. 

01:19:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There was more in this, the br betting thread. I think there's a couple more like all right what else we got here. 

01:19:09 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Well, I mean, like you know, he's now hit 10. 

01:19:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is where it gets good, what a run. But look at this t-shirt that he's wearing now. 

01:19:14 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Hey, as johnny says, I'm him after being on all faves. Hey, I like that. Go ahead, as Johnny says 10 straight favorites in a row, that means he lost his 11th, huh. 

01:19:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's it, no, unless it's still active. If it's still active. 

01:19:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Let's see the next one. 

01:19:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The cigar has me thinking he Baylor Moneyline 15-1. 

01:19:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What a run. But this actually triggered me more than the other video. From the beginning, Zach, this is Giving a kiss to the sports book. I can't explain why. Why things make me upset in life. I can't. 

01:19:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's just certain backpack that could be filled with cash could be five thousand dollars in cash it could be 50 grand it could be 50 grand. 

01:20:02 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
In a duffel. That's not bad. He's the kind of guy that takes those winning slips and goes and puts them in a slot machine. 

01:20:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, it could be Listen. 

01:20:12 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Zach, scroll up real quick. The best part about all of this, as I said at OPEB, march Madness, out of all the games on this board, I'll let you all have one guess in the game that I bet that, uh, that uh, baylor, money line of 100. 

01:20:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No good, no good. You caused this. Could have been 16 and 0 if it wasn't for you, corby. 

01:20:31 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Honestly no, I I have in my brackets. In my brackets I have the bears of the championship too. It's just quite the unfortunate. 

01:20:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Look here yeah, is that? Keep it? Keep an eye on this guy for future episodes. I'd love to love to keep an eye on what he's up to. 

01:20:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, I'm sure the guy's not actually an asshole. 

01:20:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hit his profile, Zach. 

01:20:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know, I don't. I just really it really really bothered me. Honestly, all of this could have just been done in the sake of content, where, like, they just went in and like, yeah, we're going to bet all faves and you see what happens. Like, yeah, we're going to bet all faves and you see what happens. And if that happened, it makes me even more upset. I hate stuff just for the sake of content. I like real bettors that don't react like they just, you know, won the World Series of Poker or whatever this guy was doing over a year. He did the. Who do you think you are? 

01:21:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I am Pete Weber Jr. No, he did not. Rob did not just call that as Zach pulled it. That is an all-timer. Oh my, no, he did not, Just Zach. You got to explain what just happened. 

01:21:29 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I scroll. You got to go to the YouTube too. If you're watching on podcast, at least go to the YouTube here. I scrolled down on the screen where you can see followed by one follower that we follow. That's him. That's him that we follow. 

01:21:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's him, and no, we're going to have to talk to our social guy. I'll tell you that. No, but then continue. 

01:21:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
And then continue on his top tweet Heading out of Vegas 15-1 run on the favorites these past two days Insane run. That's all for now and Pete Webber. 

01:21:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's got a gift for me. He's watched. 

01:22:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's all you could do, thank you. He's got a gift of pete weber. As rob was saying, he just pulled a. Who do you think you are? I am zach scrolls down on the screen and he's right there on this guy. Just tweet him. That is all time. But hey, listen, respect, keep betting. Congrats on the wins. We don't actually uh, we're not actually about hate here, it's just all, it's all jokes. Man, keep wish you the best. And obviously he's writing content, content for VR, and that is more of an entertaining company that wants entertaining betting content and he nailed it on the head. There you go, we're talking about it and a lot of people are going to like it. So congrats bro. 

01:22:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, and listen, I'm the crotchety old man that just hates everything nowadays. That would really bother me. Um at awful announcing, um. So this is a quote by Rhys Davis. You know what Some would call this wagering gambling, the way you've sold this. I think what it is is a risk-free investment. Espn's Rhys Davis after an ESPN bank segment with Aaron Kate Dolan. Yeah, let's play the audio for this, zach. Honestly, it's pretty long, but maybe we can start in the middle here you can look at the spread. 

01:23:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You can look at player. We like to go off what we just saw. So for Northwestern, for example, telling me you don't want Dolan's breakdown. 

01:23:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, it's just irrelevant to the I mean. It's a breakdown. It's a breakdown of the game and so if you look at a team total, although it seems low at 60 and a half I'm going to go under there. You know what Some would call this wagering gambling. 

01:23:32
I think the way you sold this. No, I think what it is is risk free investment. That's the way to look at it. Aaron Dolan from ESPN. Why would he say that, okay, what is going through his head? In order to say that I mean nothing's going through his head? Secondly, listen, aaron. Kate Dolan's put in a very bad spot there because she has to react on the fly. Probably would have been a great spot to immediately say that's not what this is, especially with the push around responsible gaming nowadays. Tough on her. I'm not blaming her in any stretch of the imagination. 

01:23:59
This is a pretty brutal clip, but it's stuff like this that really bothers me. You do content, corby. Obviously we do content, and the thing is all of the betting content, whether it's substantially different from one another, gets kind of lumped into the same bucket, no matter what period. So when you see stuff like this happen, it just ends up being a. It's like people who you know when the sideline reporter situation was coming out in the NFL and people were just like making up sideline reports, weren't even talking to players, it just came out and, like all the other sideline reporters, were offended. I understand why because it's like it's just such a negative reflection of everything that they're doing, like how ignorant do you have to be with like this responsible gaming push nowadays to make a comment like that? 

01:24:47 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
it was so weird. Like I I talked about. I don't really pay attention to news or anything like this, don't really care usually, but I saw this too and I just the first thought in my head is like these massive media corporations have prompters like, was this on the prompter? There's no way it was on the prompter. It would have been shot down instantly. 

01:25:02
Also, like aaron, though, she has opinions that like obviously I mean it's really hard to win in gambling. I don't expect her to win and I do think at times she gives good opinions like I'm not saying she wins at all, but there are times that she's decent. She was put in the worst situation and I think her response is probably what I would have said like she's like a sweat. Like it is, it's going to be a sweat. They scored 58 points. She had under 60 and a half. She was as correct as you can be. It's a sweat of a bet. Like no one wants to bet under 60 points in the round of 32 and um, she just got put in the worst situation. 

01:25:31
But my thing is, like, as a host and you guys know, but like as a host, your job is to toss softballs for the people who don't like. All they're doing is giving analysis that is just not as enjoyable to the ear to hear the whole time. You want you want a good break in a softball toss. This is just like the exact opposite of a softball toss. Like he put her in such a precarious situation felt bad, it just was, it was so awkward. 

01:25:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what happens if this bet actually loses lawsuit dude. You're telling me you wouldn't have a precedent in a court of law. I don't like I. I wouldn't you. You don't think? You don't think someone could? 

01:26:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
argue I'm not that guy, but yeah, maybe someone would. 

01:26:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not saying I would sue espn, bet or anything like that, but if somebody comes on air and says like, and you can't even really tell it's- a joke. 

01:26:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Is this technically an espn bet segment like sponsored by espn bet? 

01:26:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it's on the bottom right. 

01:26:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's the bottom right yeah yeah, honestly, that's really not good though, because, like all the responsible gaming stuff, like they had to ban the term free bet in the majority of states because they said, hey, this is, it's not a free bet, you could lose your money. They had to rebrand it's a bonus bet. And then, yeah, you I mean obviously you shouldn't have said that, but it is what is. We don't harp on it. Hopefully he doesn't move forward. Obviously, nothing Aaron Dolan could have done there as well. All right, what else we got here? We got my Rob's old buddy. 

01:26:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're going to skip over this one, Zach, We'll move on. All right, I used to produce for Gabriel Marenzi back in the day at SportsRage Duquesne, up 38 to 30 at the half. I actually did not like them. Thought BYU would probably beat them by 12 or 13, but it was at King James LeBron that changed my mind. Hashtag March Madness. This is a serious tweet. By the way, has anyone actually followed LeBron James's betting picks since the sky started to come up? March Madness? This is a serious tweet. By the way. 

01:27:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Has anyone actually followed LeBron James' betting picks since the sky started to come up. Is he still going with the betting picks? I thought he was just NFL. He's giving college basketball now I mean you give him Morenci. 

01:27:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I hope he's not giving college ball man. 

01:27:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
His son's currently playing college ball. 

01:27:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What the hell is happening. No, no hold on, hold on. 

01:27:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don college ball. For what the hell? No, no, hold on, hold on. I don't know if he gave this out as a pick, just I'll find out quickly here, but I don't know if he gave it out as a pick. He gave the duquesne team shoes. 

01:27:52 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
He outfitted them with lebron shoes the coach of duquesne is the bronze old high school coach, the. The coach who's? Gonna and he was retiring this year, and the coach who's taking his spot is the bronze old high school teammate is why, he's like pro. 

01:28:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Duquesne. Yeah, I need to get more context on these things before I actually get upset about them. That's what I'm learning in in life. I see stuff and it makes me really upset. Either way, I gotta say it's probably one of the worst handicaps I ever heard in my life. Even if it won, lebron James gave them shoes and and that enough. 

01:28:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hey Rob, you know what would make you goat status for this podcast? You got to get LeBron James on DM him. We got to get Bron on Zach. 

01:28:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We got to get Bron on to give his NFL five. 

01:28:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
See if we can make it happen. Listen, I'll DM him too. Well, let's all DM Bron, all right? 

01:28:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Everyone here that's listening or watching shoot a message over to LeBron. All right, Everyone here that's listening or watching, shoot a message over to LeBron James on Twitter. 

01:28:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Honestly, we should save it. 

01:28:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We should save it Good luck, good luck, good luck. Save it for NFL season because he might Don't even DM him. Just start responding to all his tweets saying LeBron, when are you going to be on? Circles Off, LeBron and Ernie are going to be on. 

01:29:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Everyone. Just do that favor and let's let's get lebron james on the circles off if we get, if we get braun, that'd be absolutely massive. 

01:29:07 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
But uh, I will change my profile picture to just circles off and tweet only circles off stuff for the rest of my days lebron, great picks man, you should be on circles off. 

01:29:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's it at circles off h. Whatever you can do to get circles off. All I want is LeBron to very briefly look into us and be like that's all I really want. I just want him to take notice of circles off. 

01:29:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, that's fair. He might, he, might, he might. You never know. We got two more, I think, and then we'll get into our final questions. 

01:29:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, this was more of a thread Fez Fez, I didn't even see this one, okay, so Brad, oh sorry, never mind, I did go ahead. Brad Powers calls out Steve Fezik for releasing college basketball total. Look at that pick of Fez, by the way oh, the pre-game before we get into it the pre-game pick of Fez is hilarious, like caughtught half-mouth open or whatever. 

01:30:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Why doesn't Fez say something about that pick? I think he might like it. 

01:30:08 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
He's lost a lot of weight too. He definitely needs to update that. 

01:30:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. He looks good, he's looking better now he's got this pick. 

01:30:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, he's definitely way lighter than that now. Yeah, so he releases a play in the middle of the night, technically 12 midnight Pacific time, but 3 am Eastern time. So Brad Powers kind of calls him off, calls him out on it. He responds totals 164 at midnight. So you think it's better to give out 158 under at 7 am because most won't get the 164. And if we go down to the bottom here he says if I don't release it, none of my subscribers will get it. It's better that some will get it. 

01:30:52
I have strong opinions on this in the pick selling industry. I agree with what Fezzik is saying in principle here. It's better that some of his followers can get the pick in at 3am at under 164. Even if it's 5%, if he's giving a bet that's going to close 158, he's giving under 164, that's fine. You cannot count this in your record. This is my strong, vehement opinion on this. This cannot a pick released at 3 am Eastern time when markets not matured. I don't even know if it was just that one sportsbook or not, I don't know the facts of that. This cannot and this is not just Fez, it's anyone in the space. We have to get to widely available prices across the industry and at reasonable times. Because what good is that If you're going to go and buy Fez's packages after the fact and you're going to see that game on his record? It's going to look like a win. Some people would never have had a chance to get that, so what's the point of it being included in the record? 

01:32:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair, but I mean, some people still could have got it. That's probably what 3 am Eastern time they're saying. He's in Vegas. He gave it all at midnight. What if he has people on different time zones? 

01:32:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They could have ripped that. I'm not suggesting that they could have. 

01:32:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm not against Fez on this one, Fez, I think, listen, you release it. Yeah sure, Maybe you exclude it from the record or something, or just have a caveat saying that overnights are going to be sporadic and you might get them or you might not. You can keep it in an overnight record. That'd be fine as well, I think. 

01:32:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, yeah. 

01:32:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Corby thoughts. 

01:32:33 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, I have a pretty broad opinion on this. I almost fully agree with Rob. The main thing here is, if let's say say you're going to track it, obviously no If this was something that was available in only one sports book. Again, no, I think one thing even Bestamp could maybe add or implement is this idea of, like what is a fair market price to track. Like at many times I just like I'll bet at a book but I don't choose it as my tracking because I want to have what was fair, like maybe 158.5 and I'll track 159, because more books for 159, 159 and a half. So like even people just sniping lines from the sake of pixeling obviously need to be getting the best price, but from the sake of pixeling you don't need to just be one off. Also, the big thing here if he's not tracking it, I don't mind at all. 

01:33:17
Um, I bet a lot of things that I just put in unofficial. I have like a fully different tab for unofficial, like um academy awards I'm sure y'all saw like the godzilla thing recently and like everyone can bet that. Do we believe it's real? I don't know, but like never in my life would I track that and I know people who did. And I'm like, dude, like if you're tracking that kind of stuff first off, you're playing a game that's just losing proposition for everyone. 

01:33:38
Don't track futures, don't track anything. That like, maybe someone who only has a sample size of a month, two months, you know, your time horizon isn't always a course of a season, so there's a way to do it, uh. But the main thing for me is like, why did this move 64 to 58 overnight from 3 am to 7 am? Was it because you bet it like, was it because you win? You send it to five percent, where there's five percent betting two thousand dollars on draft kings then at 3 a. That's why they moved the line four points. And it's like maybe if you just slip in and bet it right before the Rask boys and Dr Bob at 8.30 Central, then you'd be fine, and so it's all a give and take game. 

01:34:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, we've talked about this before. So you mentioned Barry Horse earlier in the interview. You said Barry, but you referred to Barry Horse and we've talked. You know. He has his telegram, right. 

01:34:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He retired. Now I think he's retired, he's retired, he's retired on the pump. 

01:34:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, the Bitcoin pump it's over. 

01:34:32 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
There's no more picks. He's going to be posting stuff still, just not major market baseball. 

01:34:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I talked to him. We're just joking From the Bitcoin. 

01:34:39 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, this man he's been playing golf every day for like yeah, he's doing well for himself. 

01:34:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's living the life. He's living the life. We're recording podcasts. He's out on the golf course. 

01:34:47 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
I asked him so very short spiel, because I know you're going somewhere with this. I asked Barry probably four years ago mid right, as COVID happened. I was like Bitcoin a bit. It's six thousand dollars. 

01:35:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a bit egregious there, but okay, I bought some because of it, so I'm happy with it it's very funny, but he, he was giving up plays on his telegram and he would basically take all the sharp sportsbooks lines right. Uh, pinnacle, uh, chris, he did. 

01:35:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Third, best available of Penny Chris Circa bet online, which is extremely fair Because that line should be available to someone who's betting. If you have the third best of those, then you should have one out that at least has that price. 

01:35:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I honestly don't even care if people give out lines that are like widely available. Whether that's like DraftKings, fanduel, you know big recreational book, it doesn't even bother me because so many people have access to those books that I think that's fair. I hate when people use best line available to give out picks. I think people should be using best line available when they're betting 100%, but I hate when that's used for giving out picks. I think there should probably be like some sort of consensus number or I mean, we'll figure this out one day. 

01:36:03 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
we'll figure it out. 

01:36:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's make one consensus number we could, we could for release this was 2020, this would be out tomorrow I mean corby's still giving you ideas four from four years ago, man yeah, yeah, we'll check it out, we'll check it out all right. 

01:36:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Final one here rufus p body channeling my inner physics sports and he tweets a picture of two huge money line favorites unc minus 46, 50, tennessee minus 25 28. Both of these bets risk over 125 000 to win three and five thousand dollars. He says he's channeling his inner Fezzik sports. For those who don't understand, steve Fezzik, known for taking big favorites, lost Purdue in the tournament last year. He did win the big favorites he took this year as well. Got a lot of work to do to catch up to that Purdue money line. But Rufus, rufus, rufus, the timing of this tweet, which was at 5.57 pm. 

01:37:07
After UNC already won After one of the two teams on this huge favorites list had already won their game. That is a big no-no. 

01:37:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Look at the top comment Easy to share. That big UNC one after it won Fezzik Sports would never pass post. 

01:37:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Honestly, he wouldn't. That's what Fezzik would not do. He would not have put this in after the fact. I bet this team or whatever. You can't do that. If you're going to show off that, you bet a huge favorite or whatever. You've got to do it pregame. I would highly suggest you never do that. It's no win situation. No win situation. 

01:37:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, the only thing worse than tweeting it before the game is tweeting it after it already wins. 

01:37:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Somehow he took what was the absolute worst the pregame huge money line favorite tweet. And Rufus made it worse. He made it worse with the past post minus 4,650. 

01:37:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Also, also Were you going to say that it's on a Google sheet? It's not even a so I know why he did it, because obviously he didn't just bet three thousand one hundred and thirty nine thousand win three thousand on one book. It's obviously across a variety of shops and he wanted to sum up his position. It's probably how he looks at his positions. But yeah, that's, you can't do that. That guy burned you that one time yeah, I tweeted out. 

01:38:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You got your results on a spreadsheet, I believe believe. 

01:38:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, Rob tweeted all his NHL results. He's like, well, this is actually my record this season, buddy, just to kind of shut a guy up, but it was just a Google sheet. And then the guy responded saying nice, congrats on the season, this is my bank account balance. And then he put an Apple Notes thing and he just typed out $1 billion and then he screenshotted it to Rob and that guy had the W of the day, W of the week. 

01:38:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I am going to say no matter what. In the past when I've actually tweeted bet slips, people just accuse me of like faking them. Somehow I tweeted some big golf winners at Pinnacle before I tweeted like a week I had on Metallica once that was like 100K plus or whatever. People just assume it's all bullshit. Anyways, I, I don't this. This tweet should have never existed. 

01:39:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I, I've got it, we're just joking around. He did bet him, he did win both the bets and I, I do believe obviously rufus got that size down. We're not accusing him of uh faking the screenshots, by the way, we're just making, we're just poking fun, but you know what? 

01:39:19 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
go ahead, corby I know you have some thoughts here. Yeah, I've got two short things on this. I actually saw Rufus that day in Vegas. I was the first time I've ever met him in person, so it was cool. Rufus is watching this. 

01:39:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's super nice guy but I can assure you he's not watching it. 

01:39:31 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Don't worry about that. Cool Listen, I didn't think you us he had a Listen. I was at the sports book. I would have went and bet some minus 3,000 at the sports book, get a free beer, basically. But no, he didn't even tell us I'm salty, I didn't even know about this. 

01:39:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Actually, if you had run into him, again afterwards, he would have told you that he won them though. 

01:40:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I would have asked given you a free beer. 

01:40:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe. Maybe here's another problem. Here's another problem I have I've done this before. Listen, you can find all sorts of tweets that I'm certainly hypocritical when it comes to a lot of this stuff. When I see someone else tweet it, it dawns on me that like, oh, I've done this before and it's a bad look, I shouldn't do it again. The bet amounts are entirely unnecessary here, like completely unnecessary Zero. He could have just put channeling my inner Fezzik already won UNC minus 46.50. I'm betting Tennessee minus 25.28. Like we don't need to know that he risked that amount of money to win. You know what I'm saying? It's, it's. I like rufus, it's a little bit of a show-off to be fair, though, click the screenshot again. 

01:40:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Zach, let's click that screen. He, we're assuming that that's his risk and win amount, but entirely could just be random numbers. Look unc zero. Uh, you know you, we don, we all know no. 

01:41:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
UNC zero's the spread. That means that the oh, that's Moneyline. Of course it's Moneyline. 

01:41:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, you're assuming that that means Moneyline. Well, I'm assuming there's no column headers. 

01:41:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I could be totally there's no columns I apologize if I completely got this wrong, but to me it seems pretty evident what this is, what this is. The bet amounts aren't necessary, they're not. 

01:41:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but good win, good win 8K for Rufus in the pocket. 

01:41:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Didn't even buy Corby a beer. What a fucking scumbag. What a scumbag. 

01:41:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Final questions for you. Corby, I know you've listened to the episode before, so we're going to do your plus EV minus EV move of the week brought to you by the Hammer Petting Network. 

01:41:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Or Pinnacle. 

01:41:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Brought to you by Pinnacle Sportsbook. 

01:41:50 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Alright, yeah, so plus EV, I had a serious one and as this conversation just kind of went along, I'm going to go to the way less serious one. Find a food that you enjoy and eat it every single day, as long as you can, until you don't enjoy it. Listen to, take the worry of what you're going to eat next and take that uh potential off your mind. I think I've talked to you about this before, johnny, but I eat chick-fil-a about almost three times a day. As fast as I can it is it takes me about three times a day, three times. 

01:42:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I love chick-fil-a is unbelievable, but I heard they're actually switching to no longer antibiotic-free chicken. 

01:42:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Three a day, three a day. 

01:42:27 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
We're going to be swapping food again then. It's been the go-to for two years now. 

01:42:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sorry, was this your plus EV or minus EV? I'm not. 

01:42:37 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
It doesn't have to be fast food, just a food that you enjoy. I know people who eat rice and chicken every single day. What's your go-to order? You get deluxe Number one. What is that? Chicken sandwich, no pickles, add sweet tea. I'm in the South. Yeah, all right as simple as it gets. Man, I'm 27. I can still play these games. I go to the gym after I eat it. Listen, I'll probably have to switch it up to some healthy alternative, but for now, listen, we're having a good time. 

01:43:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What a humble brag. Do you get it in person or quick Uber, eats, postmates, whatever you got? No, I get it in person. 

01:43:11 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
It's a one-minute walk and then you walk more to the gym and you just knock it all out in the same 30-minute session. 

01:43:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's fresher if you get it in person come in the delivery package, the bun gets soggy. You know you got to get chick-fil-a fresh. Hey, that is. That's up there for a controversial plus ev move of the week and I think what we will have we're gonna. 

01:43:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're gonna have to let the people decide down below whether this is actually plus ev or minus ev? 

01:43:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it's plus ev, if you like. Saving time on it and not having to worry about that is plus ev. Maybe eating chick-fil-A three a day? That just seems outrageous. 

01:43:44 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
It's less the food, it's more the idea. But listen, I do eat it. My little sister she visited and she's right there, she can attest that three times a day it does in fact happen. 

01:43:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wow, crazy, it is delicious. It is delicious, all right. And then you have a minus EV negative EV. 

01:44:07 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Yeah, listen, I was hoping that was the softball and you would be impressed by that, because the minus ev, that's the most controversial. Listen, this is the most. This is the worst one I've got. This is a recent development for me, but the minus ev is golf. Listen, I I know y'all play golf and let's end this program now. Listen, I've went. 

01:44:17
I've been training for two months. I'm awful. If I do good, it was expected. If I do bad, I'm just pissed off for the rest of the day. It's expensive to play, it's hard to play, it's usually bad weather, so you're just going in the way. It is a net lose. Some like either you're good and it was expected, or you're bad and you're pissed for the rest of the day. And then you go home and train because you're mad that you did bad. And listen, I've been doing this for two months and and I mean obviously not a long time horizon I'm awful. I could not do anything and I spent every single day at this point, like in my free time. I'm like, oh, let's go grab the 7-iron and practice. It doesn't help. So I take that as my minus EV. I'm wasting time practicing an old man sport. Wow. 

01:44:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's okay. 

01:44:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll let edit that out. It's okay, I'm not giving it to him. 

01:45:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, give him this here for a second here, listen, I think golf's great, I already know what you're going to say. 

01:45:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Facts he spit 100% facts there and you're going to tell me that you could practice golf, but there's no transferable skills from golf to anything else. 

01:45:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, no, I think golf is one of the best sports to day. When I have a kid straight into golf because, dude, you want your kid to be good at golf swinging he's going to sling business deals on the course Number one, number two, if you do make it. Hope he's not slinging drugs tons of money. I hope, hope not tons of money If you do make it Um and it's, and you could play it for a long time. I think golf's awesome, but I will say dead, I'm not spit all facts, bro. 

01:45:42
This guy's 100 correct. You do suck. You do go out there and suck. When you suck, you're pissed when you're good. It was expected I can't. I can't fault that I agree with all of that. 

01:45:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That doesn't change my love for the game and this I will say, slander, that he's put on it I'm going to continue playing a, b. 

01:46:01 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
There's a course here that I have to get good at. So I'm not saying I'm giving, I'm giving up, but the general consensus of like, oh, you should get into golf once you're like you've reached the age. If you can't go play basketball every day, it's the worst because, like, you go from being pretty good at something to like, hey, I should pick up golf and man, I'm probably very last on the total poll there. 

01:46:19 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Wait, wait, wait, corby, did you just start playing like you just started right now? Oh yeah, that's so much. 

01:46:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's gonna get better, it's way better and once you cut out the chick-fil-a and the greasy hands that are trying to grip the club, it'll get even better than that too. 

01:46:31
We'll have to work on that, because I'm struggling in that department it'll change zach uh I don't know how go ahead I was gonna get the next question okay, one second. Uh, make a quick note this air. I don't care if it airs or not. Two men in a truck, the movers who care. That's what we need to find as a sponsor for this segment. Plus EV, minus EV move of the week. Buy two men in a truck, the movers who care why. I don't get it Plus EV move man, plus EV move of the week, not moving your own stuff oh, that, that's outrageous. 

01:47:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You think that's? 

01:47:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so don't you don't you? 

01:47:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
that was a I'm glad zach's with me on this. That was a stretch, don't you? 

01:47:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
know that, like when you're, when you're watching a highlight show, it's like the upset of the day, brought to you by what's always. 

01:47:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like check for it pepto bismol upsets you know you're up to fucking moderna boost of the of the game the game, yeah, brought to you by All right. They had that in the NHL. They had that in the NHL yeah yeah, you're always looking for something relatable. Okay, corby, if you could like, I'm going to. I know roughly how old you are, so I don't know what this. 

01:47:35 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
You can say the age if you want but if you can go back five, so it would be a meaningful five years to a previous version of yourself. What advice would you give? Yeah, we were joking around. I kind of wanted to end it on a at least a little bit of serious. No, it's like five years ago. I was the kid and still am. So this is advice to current self too. But the guy who plays on his phone or is on screen my on-screen time is probably 20 hours a day, which is just unhealthy. I watch all the basketball. I'm sure you guys are in the same boat. 

01:48:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a lot of porn, torby, 20 hours a day, man Jesus. 

01:48:05 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Somebody's got to pay the bills. But I'm here and my takeaway for five years would be life's so much bigger than business. Life's so much bigger than anything. You can look at your phone and the only thing the revelation that turned this in my head is my brother. I've talked to Johnny about my brother before, but he owns a business it's doing very well. It's grown year over year a substantial amount of money and he had a kid last year. 

01:48:28
And the day he had his kid I saw him flip from someone who, like the ultimate grinder, the guy who wants to make this business $100 million, to he's actively currently looking to sell his company because he wants to spend the first 10 years of his life with his kid. And it opened my eyes to like, because you can make your business, 40 million doesn't make it worth 40 million. Like. There are more important things in life, and so it's a serious note to end a very fun show on, but I think that is advice at current I could still take. So I think it's a very important thing that has kind of hit me recently. 

01:48:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well said. Agree with a lot of what you said there, even though I made the porn joke in between. Apologies, it's a very serious topic and I inserted myself there. Unfortunately, we can't even cut it out because it's just like right in the middle of you talking. 

01:49:10 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
But it's perfect. It was a fun show. I told you guys, I have nothing to sell, no affiliation here. I wanted to have fun because I like both of you. 

01:49:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So it nail in the head we're good. All right sounds good. Corby, you're the man. Thank you, bro, for joining. Really appreciate it for those listening. Um drop a comment on the plus ev, minus ev. We got to hear your thoughts on that. Um like and subscribe. Please subscribe to the channel. Please also dm lebron james on twitter or instagram message him. 

01:49:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
However, get in touch with lebron james if you know him in some capacity. 

01:49:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um, yeah, we need to make this happen if you know, if you know braun, even better, shoot him a text. Uh, we would be able to record any time. We'll even go to him record a person. If we're going to record with braun, uh, and we do five minute segment, 10 minute segment, whatever. Whatever he's willing to do, we can do wait, we should let me let me talk to my info guys who jonte porter? Jonte porter, we cannot begin on the podcast that's, next, that's unfortunately not gonna happen. 

01:50:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, we'll get into more of that as the details come out. 

01:50:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We should get pete rose, though I'll try dm pete rose and lebron james rob, if I get if I get pete rose, will you give me a raise? 

01:50:20 - Zack Phillips (Other)
uh? 

01:50:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
we'll talk I. I'm not going to commit to anything, but I will say Pete Rose put out a video I don't know if anyone saw on the Shohei Otani situation and somebody asked him about it and he's like if I could go back in time I would have got myself an interpreter. Not a direct quote, but something along those lines. 

01:50:43 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
That's amazing. 

01:50:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Very funny video from Pete Rose. Yeah, we'll get Pete Rose in the mix as well. Anyone? 

01:50:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
else. 

01:50:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If we can get Sean Perry on minus the fee that he wants us to pay for his appearance, that would work too. I think that would be a big hit. 

01:50:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We got to still get. Sorry. Go ahead, corby. 

01:50:59 - Corbie Craig (Guest)
Perry was supposed to be in Vegas with us, and that same fee applied to when you get a free Vegas strip too, so he did not come to the free dinner for us because he wanted a fee to go. 

01:51:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Really, he's a big dude man. We still need to get on this list. We need to get on this program, which is going to be tough. But Braun number one, mickelson number two, billy Walters is doing podcasts, podcasts now, so there's no reason we can't get him. 

01:51:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Have you ever heard of we could get Billy Walters no disrespect to Billy Walters Great, better or whatever. Have you ever heard an interesting Billy Walters interview? Can we turn? 

01:51:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've only heard two interviews. One was live. 

01:51:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That Spanky conducted Not the best Spank. Apologies buddy, it's a good event We'll be there again this year. 

01:51:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Good effort bud good effort uh, and the rogan one, yeah, not the best yeah, not the best. 

01:51:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Can we get something out of billy? 

01:51:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
walt, like I think we could. 

01:51:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll ask him the right questions yeah, because revel did one with billy walters. 

01:51:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I didn't even watch that one, but believe me, you don't need to. Okay, I think we'd ask. We would ask billy the right questions, yeah, and get some stuff out of it. We'd give it. 

01:52:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'd get the hard-hitting knowledge that people want I would come in and I'd be calling him Mr Walters, just like Alan Boston. Okay, you can't call him Billy. It's a mad disrespect to that guy. That's why he doesn't get good answers. People call him Billy. 

01:52:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They call him Mr Walters, mr Walters. 

01:52:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I got potentially a big. I don't want to tease it, though I got a potential big guest from the sporting world coming. I'm trying to make like I hope it happens. I honestly think it's a 50 50 he. He would be punching like there'd be no reason for him to do this podcast. Let's just put it that way okay, but it might happen it from a major athlete major active 

01:52:37
or not active major athlete everyone would recognize does he have gambling? Gambling controversies no, there's a very good way to tie in what he does to the process of a better. I've been thinking about this a long time. If he turns me down, I'm gonna slander his name on air. 

01:52:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh my goodness I, I don't even know who this is, but but we will. Yeah, well, hopefully it's someone good and hopefully pull the trigger on it. But everybody, thanks for listening. This has been episode 147 of Circles Off Sports Betting Podcast, presented by Pinnacle Sports here on the Hammer Betting Network. See y'all next week. Thank you.