00:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
To win the Stanley Cup, I have it here. If you want a line shot, but you let me know who the teams are. 

00:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now, I'm doing this off the top of my head. This is not an excuse. I'm just letting people know, for full transparency, not running a model and simulation of things, that I have going on right now. The Toronto Maple Leafs at 14-1 are staring me dead in the face. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 148 right here, part of the hammer betting network and presented by pinnacle sportsbook. I'm ralph isola, joined by johnny from betstamp. How goes? 

00:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
number 48 the best athletes who wore 48. I'm gonna actually come clean here. I couldn't think of any off the rip, so I'm going from just google. Jacob degrom okay, he's pretty good tory hunter very good ball player. I was a big tory hunter fan back in the day uh, let's see, no one else really reckoned the canadian eric gagne. 

00:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Eric gagne had that like incredible run of saves one year. I don't know what it was. It was an incredible run when he was with the Dodgers. 

01:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't see even any other people that I really recognize that well. Oh, Pablo Sandoval. Pablo Sandoval the Panda. Tomas Hertel. 

01:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Not bad, tomas Hertel. 

01:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was on the ice this morning. 

01:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's coming back for Vegas Just in time, just in time for the playoffs. Who would have known? 

01:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, don't lie. What's that? Is he on a? 

01:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you know how Vegas does it every year. Whatever it's within the rules, they're just gaming the game. I respect it honestly. You find an edge in sports betting. They're finding an edge on the ice it is what it is To be honest with you. I stopped doing the sports jersey numbers segment a couple episodes ago just because I couldn't think of any. 

01:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I was just like yeah, you know what I'm like. Did we do it another two ago did? 

01:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
we do it last. What was the last episode that we did jersey numbers? 

01:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
44, maybe 44 yeah I've been off that long. 

01:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You recorded the intro solo last week yeah, we did a solo intro. All right, so we're out on those. Well, I mean, we could you make the call? 

02:00 - Zack Phillips (Other)
it doesn't matter to me one way or another let's just bring them them up every now and then I kind of like it because it upsets Kanish. 

02:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We'll bring it whenever there's basically no players with that number, and then you've got to Google it and then it lists random players. 

02:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't think of a 48 off the top of my head, just like I couldn't think of a 47 or a 46. Those are tough numbers. 

02:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So today, is a Q&A episode for anyone who sees the title. When you're listening right now, you probably already knew that Our first question I'm going to get right into it came in from a very special guest and they asked what is the number one sports book to bet at in Canada? So, rob, you want to take this one. 

02:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absolutely. This came in from Bonnie at JetStamp Right I saw. Pinnacle is the number one sports book to bet at in Canada. Find out what the pros have known for decades Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. I bet at Pinnacle for pretty much my entire life, 25 years in business and they've been in business that long for a reason because they treat their customers with respect, low margins, just a great sports book in general. So if you're betting leading into the NFL draft, MLB going on now, Masters coming up make sure you check out Pinnacle and if you do so, use code HAMMER to sign up, as it does support us here. On Circles Off, you must be 19 plus not available in the US and, as always, please play responsibly. 

03:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So today, as we always do with the Q&A episodes, I'm going to read them out Now. Normally what I do is I go through and I actually organize these by category. Today I have I'm going to full transparency. I've hacked it up a bit, so we're still somewhat there. Oh no, but it could be a little out of order. Let's hope we avoid a Spanky situation in his last Q&A, rob. 

03:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Last time a Q&A happened where there was no, the questions weren't read and organized beforehand was Spanky just responding to questions from the porn bots, if you recall? 

03:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
His last question Would you? 

03:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
smash. Would you smash? Well, you know, I don't know. 

03:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He did say everyone's got the right to earn. But that is good. 

04:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't believe he clicked the show more button and responded to a porn bot. 

04:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Shout out Spank, miss you, buddy. Okay, I'm just going to go in order here, so Rob will tackle these one by one. This one comes in from Nick Jeffries. This relates to golf. Do books have a target hold percentage for a given golf tournament? Does it vary depending on the relevance Obviously Masters versus a smaller tournament? Why aren't books cutting a popular golfer's odds, drifting the odds on less popular ones, especially in the majors? 

04:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so this turned into a Twitter thread, with Jeff Davis from Circa responding Jeff Benson as well. Again, I don't want Zach to erase the board there and put it at zero. I have some experience in these types of things. We're not erasing that. 

04:49 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Why. 

04:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're not experiencing. What do you mean by that, Ron? 

04:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have some experience in these types, I want to get that number up to something that's more than two. The reality is each book does have like a generic hold percentage that they typically will put out for a given golf tournament, some generic hold percentage that they typically will put out for a given golf tournament. Some are smaller than others. A low margin book like Pinnacle, for example, will generally have a lower hold than some other books. When you're asking why, like, do the odds not drift when a popular golfer's odds change, the reality is because people still bet the stuff. Honestly, like there's no incentive. 

05:24
Let's say somebody bets Scotty Scheffler and he goes from plus 500 to plus 300. Generally speaking, you would expect everyone else in the field to now have longer odds, but the problem is like there's not enough people that are price sensitive for one and two people are just gonna bet into the market anyway. So the whole percentages, frankly, are getting out of whack in a lot of futures markets right now. But so the whole percentages, frankly, are getting out of whack in a lot of futures markets right now, but people are betting them. So it's really challenging to put a sports book on the spot and say, like, why are you doing this when the vast majority of people are going to bet into the market anyways. 

05:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, also, these guys aren't really doing true bookmaking. A lot of these regulated books, as we know. They take the hits and then they'll see it sharper offshore book move line and then they just automatically move it down and there's no, they may have not even taken any hits on that golfer and they just move the odds down. So that's part of the industry that obviously you know. It's been talked about a lot of many podcast. Maybe it'll get fixed forever, but that I think, to be honest, that's probably what's really doing. It is they're just moving odds down and then also, you know, if they take a hit and have super big exposure on one guy, then they'll move his odds down too and then it just, you know, gets them the whole bundle out of whack. Right, how would you avoid the? What would you do to offset this? 

06:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Bet earlier. Bet earlier, but I mean generally speaking, is just like the line shop right Because if you're betting at one book. 

06:39
Let's say that the golf market has a futures market as a 20% hold right. Just a random example. It could be whatever number. But now you bet at three books. You're going to find some better prices on certain guys. You're taking your hold percentage down and essentially the more books that you bet at, you're just decreasing that hold. You're not going to get it to a point, especially in golf futures, where you're going to be betting into like 1% hold. 

07:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's not going to last year, maybe not last year, actually prior to last season, season before last, the first year that sports betting was regulated in ontario, so that would have been uh, 2022, 2022 it was regulated in, I believe, april and then, so, coming into that summer where there's golf odds up, I used to have like a little tool that had all the golf futures and it would summit and almost every tournament for like 12 in a row was negative. Hold on the on the futures in the early going literally lasted for the whole season and then the off season happened and then the next season came back and it was like smaller hold, now even line shopping, like you're still betting into a hold but, by the way, you can still win betting into a course a smaller hold it's just betting into a smaller hold on every sport it. 

07:44
It was negative hold for that whole season in Ontario. We had a bunch of books here that obviously for anyone listening in the States, like we had a couple of books offering outrights that weren't available in the U? S and one in particular that was like really helping with that Um, but yeah, you could bet into a negative hold for the whole golf season on outrights. So I shocker no, not shock, I don't mean to be a guy complaining I did not win money on the outrights, absolutely did not win money. But hey, it is what it is Okay. Up next, in regards to MLS, the major league soccer, what are some good sources for team lineups, for example Roto-Wire or Twitter? There are some players in MLS whose odds move dramatically whenever they are starting or not. Yeah, so we can both answer. 

08:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So go ahead yeah, I'll just make this like a larger question because it's not specific to MLS. So FOG here is looking for MLS and specific my personal opinion the the days of going to a site like rotowire or some other site that aggregates lineups I think are over because the market is so quick to react. Now I don't know about the MLS market, but generally speaking bigger European soccer markets as soon as the lineup comes out, the line moves like this right. I would imagine MLS is probably at that level or will get to that level it does move in the near future yeah, it moves pretty quickly. 

09:03
so what I would suggest anyone does out there is set up a Twitter list that just has the beat writers for all the teams. I do this for NHL, which is kind of my bread and butter. I have an NFL list as well. There are some great sites that, like Underdog for example, that are gonna be just extremely fast, so let's explain kind of what this is Like. 

09:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The best source for news right now is easily like twitter x, x the best source for news because it actually gives you everything in real time. So when those beat reporters tweet something out that's there in real time, you're the first one who can get it. Typically, that's not even going to many inside sources before. When it's a lineup or anything like that, obviously major trades, injuries, there'll be leaks. But when people are saying, like all underdogs, the best source for NBA, all underdogs done is essentially built like a Twitter bot that scrapes through all of the news sources based on the beat reporters They've inputted in there and then it just formats it correctly and then they have a guy who runs it and approves it, who is known in the space, and then he just kind of like I guess, approves it or maybe it's automatic anyways, but that's all it really is. So, technically, if you have a beat reporter list, you can be faster than underdog by a couple seconds, um, sometimes a little bit more. Sometimes you know it'll be right on, but that's all it is. So, yeah, for MLS, I don't know who the beat reporters are. I have zero clue, but follow the beat reporters per team, add them in a Twitter list. You can essentially tag it and set it up nicely on your screen and then that way you just have that refreshed when you're looking and you'll see stuff come in. 

10:29
Now this leads into our next question, which is most likely actually equally as important, is how would you go about valuing what percentage to the money line in totals a player is worth? So this is again for every sport. Yeah, if you're fast on the injury news, you need to then look and say, okay, what's this player actually worth? So you might have guys that are out but they didn't do anything to the spread because that player might have a better or equivalent replacement level player below him. So these two things and that's why I really did categorize these together for uh, rob chris has at the beginning here, but uh, we're categorized together if you end up getting player information quickly in most likely scenarios, in all scenarios pretty much, um, you're going to be able to do something with that whether that's a total player prop market, we mentioned a lot of times before. So if a player is not good enough to impact the total he, he's certainly in and around the range to impact other players' performances, so MLS player props. I have no idea what happens there. I'm going to relate it to NFL or something like that. But if the player is out as a wide receiver, he's not impacting the total. He's still going to impact other wide receivers. 

11:39
So this is all just like gut feel and stuff like that. You have to just know. I would write it down If you wanted to bet seriously and you're gonna be staring in front of your thing. Write down okay, this player's out. These are the players who are key right now. Look at the injury reports in advance, figure that all out and be like okay, it's a chance that this player is out tonight. If he is out, then these are the impacts that get hit, based on the books and outs that I have. Here's where I go. I go one, two, three, four, in order of speed, and then there you go. That's the way personally I would do it and that's the way that most people in the space would do it. But eventually, once you start figuring this all out, you'll know okay, this guy's out. Then this is what happens. 

12:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For major markets, you generally have line history and for a lot of players, especially especially in the NBA who may have rested in the past, things of that nature you can go back and look at line histories for those specific games and look at how the line moved, specifically when they were ruled out. That'll give you a general idea. It's not like an exact science, but if you're looking to ballpark something, that's a good way to do it. If you're asking about like originating here and how do you value each player like, that's a good way to do it. If you're asking about like originating here and how do you value each player like, that's a completely loaded question that's impossible to answer right now. 

12:52
I do plan on doing an episode at some point on how to build a model, potentially where I go back and look at some of the models I built like five years ago which I no longer use, but we'll just give a general idea of how to build that out. If you're looking to do things from the ground up. But line history, it exists for a reason. You can leverage BetStamp if you want and go back and look at the line history for any game since we launched the app and that'll give you a generally a decent idea of Connor McDavid's out Okay, this is what he's worth. 

13:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Lebron James is out Okay, this is is what he's worth, and you can do that for any sport small sample size, but that'll give you like a general gauge I I agree with that because there's no sense in doing the work yourself when it's already been done and everyone's uh amalgamation of work is just into one true line that has shaped in in the market. So if you want to know what lebron is worth in a specific game state, you can just look at the line history and then fyi for the player prop stuff, which is in all scenarios. I know I've been talking props a lot in the last couple weeks, but the stuff for game moves it moves, but it's not massive edges anymore, like players who are in an nba. For example, another two, three years ago you would be able to just blind bet yannis out and get like six to eight points of CLV in some scenarios, you know, because then they'd have like rollovers and then Middleton will be out and someone else will be out as well and you can actually crush that. But now in today's NBA, with the way that they're reporting and the way that the info is leaking, it's actually not really possible to get like eight points of CLV anymore. It's more likely you're going to get like two to three because they'll bake into the line that you know Giannis is 50, 50 to play and if he's in, it'll move two up. If it's down, it'll move two down. But they don't assume everyone's in anymore, which is what they were doing a couple of years ago. 

14:33
So now if you really want to injury chase, you got to be doing it on the props. That's where you're going to make a ton of money. That's where you're still 30, 40, 50 percent edges. And I know people like how do you get a 50 percent edge? Like when two guys on a main team are ruled out. The two best players are ruled out because they're resting. There is always going to be one player whose point total might be nine and a half and that's going to jump up to 18 and a half. It's it happens almost, almost every other day. 

15:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'd say you'd have at least one scenario where it's that drastic of a change I will say say even just in the infancy of baseball this year, there's been times where somebody's batting like seventh in the order and the next day there's somebody sitting and they end up batting third or fourth, which is going to have a massive difference, obviously based off of, like their RBI opportunities, the number of bats they're going to face. So I agree on the prop market stuff like baseball, lineups come out, boom, major market lineups, somebody's betting side and total. 

15:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But they're moving side and total like five, six cents. Maybe they're moving the player props like 50 cents, so it's actually better to go player props. I mean, I might as well plug the tool again. We have had an amazing interest. Anyone that's listening here. We booked a ton of calls. Thank you everyone for reaching out. We got a ton of people now making really good money on the tool. It's been holding up in terms of like a quick update Edges are all there. I know the overwhelming Sentiment. Very, very happy. 

15:54
We have the line history on that tool, so I didn't mention this last time. But on the bed stand player props tool you hit, you hit the any line for the past like three years you can see like. So, at any given day. You just hit kawaii leonard points, it'll show you every single line, move for pinnacle, fan duel, draft, kings, whatever. Every single book you can really see. All right, this was the time when this guy got ruled out. How did this impact? And then, um, obviously that's where you're going to be able to determine who to hit, who to chase, who to parlay. Wink, wink, you got wink. 

16:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You got it. Wink, wink, you got it. I like that. 

16:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, up next. You know what this guy's question? This is a good question, man, this is a great question, because I don't know it, I don't know the answer. 

16:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think I know which question you're going to go to as well, and I also don't know the answer. 

16:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay. Are you sure you read it anyways? Someone will know it. Do it anyways. Yeah, Danny K731 asks one question. Nobody has ever been able to answer for me and I'm sorry, sir, but I will not be able to answer for you either. Why do you get less points in two-team basketball teasers, which, like a standard, would be a four-point teaser, compared to a two two team football teaser, which standard would be a six point teaser? I don't tease basketball, but it doesn't make sense. 

17:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's right, it doesn't make sense. It doesn't make sense because basketball is higher scoring, so typically you would think that you would get more points in a teaser relative to football which is football, if anything, probably has the same amount of variance. 

17:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but involved in like a six point spread. 

17:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know enough about teaser origin. Generally speaking. Last year at Bet Bash, like someone got inducted into the Sports Betting Hall of Fame that like invented the teaser, right, I didn't know any of this stuff I just saw. I don't know the origin of teasers. I would think that, logically, if I was starting this from scratch, I would award more points in a basketball teaser just because it's higher scoring. 

17:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But are we mad? Are we just like off on the, on the math? 

17:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
thing. 

17:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, it could be like it it is so let's say a six point, a six point fave in the nba, yeah, versus a six point fave in the NFL. Who covers the six more? I wouldn't even say who covers the six more In that scenario, it'd be who covers like 12 slash 10. But I would be more looking at like a variance calculator, like what's the variance in that game? Like an NFL team obviously could win by 30, but so can an NBA team. But what's the likelihood on either of those? 

18:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But like none of this. Nowadays this doesn't matter anymore, anyways, because there's so many derivatives of the teasers that you can play. Like before, when I first started betting, there was like a six and seven point teaser in the NFL and if you really wanted to like a 13 point teaser or something like now, you can bet like a million different types of teasers depending on where you're betting. Same with basketball. I don't know the origin of it. I'm not going to be able to answer this for Danny Dimes. It is an interesting, thought-provoking question, but I concur that I don't believe that it makes a ton of sense. 

18:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If somebody's listening and they know the answer, please do comment or shoot us a DM, or something I would love to know at this point as well. 

19:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love that profile pic. 

19:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What is it there? 

19:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Just this guy just sipping wine there, man he's having like a Merlot or Very nice. 

19:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, you know, let's do some more rapid fire here. Okay, rob, there's two in this here. Where would you recommend someone start at to learn a programming language for data scraping? But before you answer that, another question came in. That is Rob, what language are your models in? What programming language are your models in? Do you program yourself or does someone do it for you? If it's, you explain the process. 

19:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay. So I studied computer science in college, university, but I didn't retain a lot of that knowledge because I directly went into the workplace and I worked in radio and then a little bit of TV, so I never really had to practice. So I learned Python when I was in university. Didn't retain that, but I was very good at Excel. So personally, I built everything that I do and have done in Excel myself. 

20:14
Now Excel is not the answer for most people, especially if you want to run simulations. This could be very like take a lot of time. So what I did is when I ended up partnering up with a larger betting group, probably six, seven years ago, I started having someone automate that for me. So I worked directly with another computer programmer. He took a lot of calls with me, I walked him through my Excel model, the logic, and then he just built this out in Python and automated it and it made it like this much faster. It used to take me five minutes to run every single baseball, a singular baseball game, like if I wanted to bet baseball and the lineups came out. It'd take me five minutes to run it in Excel. It took me five seconds to run it in Python. 

21:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So yeah, that's probably not a deal, yeah, probably not ideal. 

21:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You. You tend to see R and Python being the most commonly used programming languages for sports betting nowadays. Uh, but listen, just because I didn't learn to program doesn't mean that you shouldn't. There's lots of times where I really wish I actually had the ability to do stuff quickly. I probably can hack a lot of things if I had to, but it's it's just not conducive to being, you know, optimal in the long run for me. So the other question was where would you recommend someone start to learn a programming language? For me this was 20 years ago. 

21:35
It's very different from things nowadays. Nowadays, the world is different. Like I grew up, I took guitar lessons. If I had to do it, nowadays I could just pull up YouTube and I can learn. And like anyone can leverage the internet to learn nowadays. So, intro to coding you can do like lots of free courses online. My wife did one during COVID. It took three months and she learned like basic R, not that difficult. 

21:58
So where would you learn to program? Just leverage the resources that are available to you for free If you want to. You could pay for a course, you could go to school, you could do whatever you want, but nowadays there's no shortage of possibilities. There's a lot of books that are out there. Eric Eager, who's part of the Hammer, has a book about programming in R for sports betting. Who else there's Andrew Mack, ginge Face Killa, another guy that has some books on this subject. There's just like a million resources available to you, so I would recommend it if you want a model. Figure out programming. Don't be like me, where you're reliant on someone else for everything else. 

22:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And just leverage everything that's available to you for free on the internet nowadays. I disagree with that. I wouldn't learn coding. But I mean, listen, I'd say just like, take a look at where the first off, first off from my business partner, julian. I've overheard him say Python's the more superior language just because more people use it and you're just going to be able to have more transferable skills. Java is like old school, that's kind of dying. So you'd probably want to learn Python. And then R. They say it's better for statistical modeling, but you can do whatever you can do R in Python. It just takes a little bit longer. 

23:10
But for the most part and you mentioned data scraping I believe Python is going to be your best bet. So that's I don't know for sure, but that's why I've overheard people say who are more knowledgeable on this, me like coding is just something that's going to be completely automated, whether it's like already basically is, but over the next couple of years there'll be certainly automated. So I'd say, instead of wasting your time on that and by wasting I don't mean that in a negative light, um, it's just sorry I'll say instead of spending your time on that, cause it is going to be a lot of time to learn. So I learned a better skill, like there's so many better things you can learn, and learn stuff that's transferable and that's not going to go out of style, for example, learn speaking better, networking better, um, anything like that. Like don't I'm. 

23:50
I'm more of the type of person who would be, instead of learning another language, like instead of learning a language, like learn something, for example, that's more transferable, like speaking to people in business and negotiations, because that's more transferable, like speaking to people in business and negotiations, because that is more transferable, whereas the other language you kind of have, like you have access to that, you have Google, you have things like that. Not saying there's no benefit there's definitely benefit to both, but you do have to be selective in how much you can learn. You can't learn every single thing, um, cause you don't have the time for it. So for me personally, if you're looking to get into sports betting, I don't think you need to learn how to code. 

24:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a serious, serious thing, I would agree that you don't need to learn it. 

24:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you did want to. I believe Python's a better bet, but there's so many more skills that are necessary in sports betting than just straight coding. And for all of the analysis stuff that people say most of the time when people are running these models, I think it gets overblown as to how like intricate these things are. There's definitely a lot of really good ones out there, but for the most part, like, if you're just trying to do like basic analysis on stuff like you might be good in Excel and I'm giving practical advice here People are going to disagree with this. If you're the best of the best and you already know the code, yeah, obviously do it in Python, but I'm giving practical that one hour a day that you could spend coding. 

25:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
put that one hour into trying to figure out why basketball teasers are four and five points and football teasers are six and seven. 

25:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But put it into finding edges. Instead of trying to do a model, look through sites, see what else you can do, test out different theories, things like that. All right up next. This is from Amber Gambling. Have you ever encountered a scenario, live betting, when the sports book one time lowers limit to small dollars because of a higher risk for them or other reason, and knowing this is now a perceived high risk to the sports book, would you just go bet it elsewhere? Or is that a red flag? Thanks you. 

25:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, okay, interesting question. I can think of one time and I, by the way, way, I don't do a ton of live betting there was a very exploitable live betting edge in hockey back in the day. I think I've spoken about this before. It doesn't exist anymore, so I'm comfortable saying what it is. But the end game scenarios were not priced properly. So basically in hockey there was like this old school mentality typically if a team was going to pull the goalie, it would have came like in the last minute of the game when I was growing up. Then all of a sudden, it might have been Patrick Waugh, it might have been some other coach, I think it was. Patrick Waugh came in and he said to hell with this. We're going to pull our goalie with five minutes left in the game, or three minutes, or whatever it was. And that really affected a lot of the live betting scenarios late in hockey games, where now you can take the team that's winning minus one and a half at a very good price because they're going to be shooting at an empty net for three minutes instead of one minute. 

26:35
I do remember betting this quite frequently and there would be many times where I would actually try to put in a bet and get offered a lower limit than what I was accustomed to. But but it was very glitchy and weird. My immediate thought was not I'm going to go find another sports book and bet it there. I just kept trying to hit it at that same sports book and I just kept getting bets, but every now and then I would have a lower limit and I don't know the reason why. Can't explain it. But to me it wasn't like a. I never thought like I need to stop betting this and go bet somewhere else, or this edge is going to be nuked market wide. It was like I'm just going to keep betting it here, if that makes sense yeah, fair enough. 

27:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, I don't know the exact meaning of the question, like if you had a high limit on the thing and then they just dropped it, meaning like, oh, something happened in this, that's now like more variable, that would be a sign, yes, that there's something to exploit in that. 

27:29
If the it could just be your live betting the Dallas Mavericks game and then Luka hit the locker room, like if you have the info that he's going to come back into the game and he just went to go to the bathroom, then yeah, that's going to be a big edge to go bet that elsewhere. Edge you go bet that elsewhere. But um, I think, listen, I have, I have not consulted for sports books in the past, but I do know a thing or two and I will say most of the time, when there's different live betting limits within games, uh, that's just directly related to which trader is on trading that game. So if you see, for example, you know a book have, okay, they're taking this game. It might be a bigger game. They might have put a bigger trader on there. So if one game's trading 5k limit, the other game trading 11k limit and the other game trading 8k limit, highly likely. What's happening is that 11k one is a big game and the 5k one, you know, maybe not the biggest game, but they got a more rookie guy, first year guy, on there. So they want to limit the exposure and that's what it is. 

28:24
And, contrary, if you see, like a $40,000 limit on an NFL Sunday for a live betting, or $20,000 limit, live betting and play at certain books, um, you'll know that. Wait, why is the this one game, why is Vikings bears 20,000 limit and the rest of these games are 5,000 limit? Well, it's because the best traders on the Vikings Bears and it's probably going to rinse you, yep. But yeah, go bet elsewhere. Go bet elsewhere with that info. All right, as a pro bettor, how do you draw income from your bankroll? Obviously you want to maximize your bankroll. We'll cut it out, but you still have to pay the bills. So I'm not a pro bettor, but Rob will let you handle this one if you want to know. 

29:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is always a challenging question because I honestly don't think about it a lot personally. Like I don't draw from my bankroll very often, unless I want to pull money into crypto because I see the market going up. Like that's really the only time I'm pulling. Sometimes it depends on how much money you have in specific books and like wanting to mitigate risk pulling from those specific books, there's no right or wrong answer. So like I'm just going to give you the honest truth with myself. There's no conscious reason for me to do it. Like I don't say to myself oh, at the end of this year I'm going to pull X amount Some people do. 

29:54
But like if I want to buy a car, I'll pull some money from my bankroll. If I want to do you know, go on vacation and I don't have money in my bank account, I'll pull something from my bankroll. So like this is a pretty trash answer from someone who does this professionally, but like that's just the honest truth. Now, what I would recommend for other people who are not in the same position and you're, like you're looking to build up your bankroll, you get to you should probably set certain thresholds is what I would say Like if I reach this amount, I will pull 10 to 20% of it. But remember, whatever you're pulling is gonna be money that's no longer in your bankroll to bet. So if you actually have a substantial edge and you're winning, I would say keep that money in your bankroll as long as you can and try to bet through it, because that's better than just pulling money and having it sit in your bank account. That's going to, you know, return whatever 4% in a GIC, I'll tell you what is not recommended? 

30:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's what our guests from a couple of weeks ago did, which was they had a hot week and he went and bought a Ferrari, alan Boston, if you haven't caught the episode, it was a couple of weeks back. So, yeah, that would probably be not recommended. Listen, I don't know the answer. It all depends on your financial situation. Where you got money coming in from stuff like that, like betting, is is is meant for entertainment. You know we obviously preach. You know using betting as a as a chance to try to win money and grow. But, yeah, don't overexert yourself. 

31:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you have other expenses, like you know, keep you got to set some aside for want to be on the street. I would say, like, because this was this question which is from our drop station, was, you know, geared to as a pro better? I would venture a guess if you asked like a hundred pro betters this question, you would get some very wildly different answers, and that's just the reality of it. I don't think this is with sports betting. I don't think everything is black and white. Like there's a lot of gray area. Johnny bets a certain way, I bet a certain way, I know other people that bet a certain way and that works for everyone. It's the same thing with maintaining your bankroll. Like we all don't bet in the same style. Like we don't all use the same staking method. Obviously, we'd all love to use like some sort of version of Kelly, but that doesn't work in reality with a lot of situations, with a lot of situations. This is the same type of thing, like. I really just think this is dependent on the person Exactly exactly. 

32:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, lots of talk about sample size, but this is one I haven't heard. What is the minimum number of total bets for somebody to be considered a long-term winner? Would it be 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, or more? Assume this person has a positive ROI and enough CLV to beat the VIG on average. So I'll take a crack at it. If you have a 1000 bet, if you have a 1000 bet sample size with enough CLV to beat the VIG on average and a positive ROI, I would go ahead and stamp you a winner. And that's because I know it's not hard to win, so I'll stamp you a winner. 

32:41
Now, how much are you going to win? That is going to now need me to, you know, require me to go look into the bets, see what, what average bet size you're doing as well. That's going to be a big one here. To determine if someone's a long-term winner, I have to see what sports books you're you're betting at and beating. That would also help me determine. But yeah, 1k, 1k bets, positive ROI, enough CLV, yeah, I'd say you're a winner. You learned how to win. You learned how to get CLV over a thousand bets and you won off it. So I'd say that's a winner. What? 

33:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
do you think Rob Listen, I'm just doing some quick calculations Again there's never gonna be. There will be a number where you're certain someone is a winner right, and obviously the higher that number, technically speaking that number technically speaking. I know what johnny just said about the 1k and he'd stamp you winner. I probably would do the exact same thing, but there is a realm of possibility where you can run good over 1k bets but if someone actually had it and they're like, hey, I'm, I'm, am I gonna win? 

33:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
moving forward, yes or no? 

33:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
you'd probably be like well, I would bankroll that person, yeah I'd be like, yeah, I think you're gonna win moving, yeah. 

33:44
So like if someone came to me and said, hey, I have a thousand bets here, this is what I'm doing, and they showed it to me and like good closing line value metrics, I would give that person money to bet, in all likelihood unless they got a bad vibe from them, which sometimes they get bad vibe from people. But generally speaking, probably enough. But the larger you get, the higher degree of confidence you're gonna have in that. So again, I don't wanna like it's. This is a cop-out answer but I don't wanna give an exact minimum number. Somebody could probably solve the minimum number. I just don't care to do that. I think once you get into four-figure bets and you're winning and you're getting good secondary metrics, I would say that's probably pretty solid, solid enough okay, we're going out of order here okay, you're, you're laughing before you're reading today is peanut butter and jelly day. 

34:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What are your go-to peanut butter and jelly smooth or crunchy? What kind of jelly? The people need answers. I'll be honest me, I'm a massive peanut butter guy, massive massive peanut. 

34:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've seen you eat peanut butter just straight from the the jar before all the time yeah, so I I like more recently I'm on the organic peanut butter. 

34:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I, like you know, I'll take it more of a just peanuts and I don't want all that garbage in there but does the oil float to the top? 

35:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
you gotta mix it. Mix it hard right. 

35:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Here's what you got to do. If you really want to be a peanut butter aficionado here, what you got to do is you got to take the peanut butter out of the jar, mash it all up, get the oil in early, almost like you stir yourself. 

35:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're taking the peanut butter out of the jar into a secondary vessel. What I do is I take half out. 

35:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I pour the oil in, I stir that up so it becomes smooth, and then I put it back in and then that thing will now stay for the month without getting bad. If you're gonna go, then you're gonna get too much oil at the top. If you don't do it, and then you're gonna get way too dry at the bottom. 

35:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not gonna lie to you. Seems like a lot of work for peanut butter, yeah if you it, I mean it's. 

35:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's the cost of eating healthy. If not it's not you go buy the jif peanut butter and call it a day. But I will say the most tasty peanut butter, if I were to compare it, is smooth crunchy. Whatever Kraft, smooth and light with the blue label at the bottom is by far the best Kraft peanut butter. You can get Non-negotiable Smooth and light. Over everything else, johnny, that might be the best take you've ever had on this show. 

36:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You like smooth and light. I think we're in full agreement here Smooth and light. 

36:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you're not going smooth and light, I don't even know. I'm not a big jam guy. I don't eat jam. 

36:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
First of all, I love peanut butter as well. I'll eat any damn peanut butter. You serve me a crunchy peanut butter. It's going to go is definitely a winner. In terms of the jam, this will cause a lot of stir. Okay, I've done a lot of peanut butter and jam in my life. Typically speaking, you go with your more traditional jams red, dark, strawberry, whatever. I recently had a peanut butter sandwich with an orange marmalade yeah, an orange marmalade, standard, standard, standard marmalade, and like as a pb and j, and it was fantastic and I'll stand by and don't knock it till you try. This isn't like a matt zalbert. Uh, banana in marinara sauce like this is. This is solid, so give it a shot before you knock it, but that's kind of my go-to. I will accept any answer, though. 

37:03
I'll accept any answer though yeah pisky celebrating national pb&J Day as well. 

37:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Not a big peanut butter and jelly sandwich guy, though, just more of a peanut. You know what's good actually. Yeah, I will say a nice peanut butter on a bagel Posted. 

37:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A fresh bagel. It's a hot bagel, so the peanut butter's melting a little bit. Yes, and a smooth and light. 

37:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That'll smooth. Oh my goodness, that's a game changer. Right there, I shot the toaster. 

37:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Whoa, what are you saying, zach? That's a game changer. Where do you stand on grilled cheese sandwiches, grilled cheese sandals? 

37:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It depends on the bread, honestly Depends on the bread. If you get high quality bread, and then yeah, you go with regular cheese. 

37:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It depends on the cheese. 

37:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The cheese is. To be honest, that's a hot take. I think the cheese is less important than the bread. It's got to be some sort of decent cheese. You can't be using the absolute problem. We have different cheese in canada than america. By the way you go to america, it's all trash it's like so processed there's a lot of processed cheese. 

37:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I I listen, I'm not a craft singles guy or whatever like it's got to be like a nice solid standard cheddar cheese. Yeah, but even then I'll experiment, man, I did like I did a grill. I've, I don't. I've never done a profile I have done a problem but I have to do. You know what they do. 

38:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know what they do last week yeah, now I don't want to be called out for ordering this. I got a one time relax, but you can get a grilled cheese sandwich at tim hortons. It's on like bread and then they put a piece of provolone on the top and then they grill it in the panini press with the provolone on top. That's a good way to make a sandwich. 

38:32 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I didn't know. That was what it was what did you think it was? No, I just thought it was just like another piece of the cheese that's from inside. 

38:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, because it's different cheese inside it's different, and cheese all right. All right. Back on track. Back on track here, boys, all right. So let's get back to a more serious one. Rob, your name is ash ketchum, from pallet town you meet, you meet professor oak to start your pokemon trainer career. Which pokemon do you choose between bulbasaur, charmander and squirtle? Which of these pokemon is plus ev and which is negative ev? 

39:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Very loaded question. So the final evolved form of Charmander is Charizard, which is the strongest of the three final evolved forms. So you have Bulbasaur eventually ends up as Venusaur. You have Squirtle eventually ends up as Blastoise. Charizard is the strongest of the three. However, when you're playing Pokemon, being Bulbasaur or Squirtle gives you a significantly better path to the end of the game, because your first gym leader is Brock, who has Rock Pokemon and, if you know, fire is very weak against Rock. So if you pick, char is very weak against rock. So if you pick charmander in the early going, you're up against it at the beginning of the game. So it's a loaded question. Charizard the best final version of these three. But it also makes the game more difficult if you have charizard because of the way that the game is structured. So I I can't say which of them is plus EV, minus EV. You know, pick any one of them. I personally like to play the game with Bulbasaur as the starter. It's the easiest path. I think Venusaur is the second best of those three evolved forms. 

40:21
One thing I will say I talked about this as like a plus EV recently on one of the shows, which was like just playing board games to develop like gaming strategy. We had Antonino De Rosa on in 2023, a Magic the Gathering player turned sports betting better. Magic the Gathering has like some very advanced strategies that are involved with it and if you can master that game, I can totally see how you can master sports betting. If you want a more intermediate card game, that's kind of fun Pokemon cards honestly, learn the Pokemon trading card game. You can get like a Game Boy emulator and play Pokemon trading card game. You'll actually learn like a lot of basic math and like probability. Why probability if you do that? So I know it's lame, it's like a kid's thing. I grew up on Pokemon. It was like big in my heyday. But seriously, if you want like a fun game, that's going to teach you some probability along the way. Pokemon trading card game. 

41:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, fair enough, this one comes in from. I'm gonna read that name For those of us using a top-down approach this is top-down approach. This top-down better. How important is it to track where the line movement has been prior to placing your bet? I've always been curious if others use some form of trend in their decision-making process to up or downsize their position based on those trends. So I can take this one to start. 

41:41
So you always want to know where the market is. I do find it very strange how a lot of people think they're just going to come in, sit down one day, look at a blank screenshot of the market and win money. It's possible if you have the super easiest outs of all time. That is just very, very obvious. But in any scenario, you pretty much need to be following at least that one day of movement to make sure that you're on the right side of things. So you absolutely need to know the line history. How much do I factor that in? Very much. So you want to know. If a team moved from plus five down to plus two and a half is a lot different than if it moved from two and then moved up to two and a half. You're also going to want to know big time if it was played back, so if it hit a resistance point or if it has yet to hit a resistance point. So, for example, it might have the Atlanta Hawks at plus four and then now that's at plus one. That's a lot different than if it went down to pick and then back up to plus two. That would be a completely different move than just the standard four to two. So you have to factor in all these things, no doubt about it. 

42:47
How about on the player prop side, player props well, I'd say anything. After a big news-based event, you kind of throw out the window because now it's just a completely different lineup. Yep, I'm talking more nba here, um, but uh, yeah, probably applies to everything. Honestly, if you're doing nfl props, this is one I'll speak on. I know the season's not for a little while. If you're doing nfl props okay, and you constantly see that one guy has is trickling up, this is yeah, honestly, I'll give this out because if you listen to this and then you use it in, nfl. 

43:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's great it's giving out his secrets on peanut butter and and his secrets on nfl peanut butter ones and grilled cheeses, all right. 

43:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if you see a player getting steamed up in one week, that means that there's likely people that like that player, if he performs average in that week or below average or great whatever, it might be highly likely that he will be steamed again that next week. So, for example and this is this, doesn't count for like the superstar wide receivers, it's more for like mid range players, rookies, guys who are coming in, whatever you see a guy move from over 36.5 yards up to 51.5 yards without major injury, movement or anything like that. Then the next week comes and that player opens up again at 40.5 receiving yards. He's probably going to get bet up again to 50. So these are simple things that I would do where you want to be following the line movement, and same thing as I mentioned with the game stuff. 

44:05
If a guy moved all the way up to 67.5. Simple things that I would do where you you want to be following the line movement and, uh, and same thing as I mentioned with the game stuff. If a guy moved all the way up to 67 and a half yards and then somehow he got back down to 60, like something's up right now you know that there's there's resistance points at each of those. So most likely the lines you know someone, someone thinks he's going to go under, some someone thinks he's going to go over, and it's kind of settled in. Now you know that line is settled. You can try to pick off some prices that are contrary to that, maybe take an under and play back a middle on an over, if it's a certain scenario makes a lot of sense, all right anything to add there? 

44:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
no, this is not my area of expertise at all and, honestly, I am the guy that just looks at the screen and just just wildly fires away. 

44:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you could still win like that if you have enough books. I'm not trying to say that, but if someone which I do. 

44:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have like upwards of 20 of them. 

44:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So there you go, so you're good. But if somebody sends me a screenshot of an odd screen right now and says, hey, what's the play, I'm going to tell you what I think is the play. But I will be able to certainly tell you what the play is if I was looking at that all day. And the reality is, you get what you put into this game. You want to put in more time. You're going to end up better. You want to only sign on. And for props it's different. By the way, for props I do actually think you can kind of sign on like after the lineups have finalized, because those markets are moving way more. So for props, you can sign on an hour before the game and do it. But for full games, you tell me you're going to sign on. You think you're going to win money. What you're going to wake up Sunday morning? Wake up, roll out of bed, brush your teeth, turn on Pazola's Periscope. You think you're going to win money. 

45:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're definitely not going to win money on a Sunday morning. 

45:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Listen, maybe you're going to do okay, but you've got to be following those moves throughout the week and see where things settle, see where stuff's coming in. You can't just, you know, don't roll out of bed, toss on Pizzola's your alarm. 11 am, pizzola's on, anyways, anyways, all right, all right, all right. Rob, when calculating CLV, what closing line do you use? What do I Like? A consensus book? 

46:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
or one specific book. Honestly, it doesn't even really matter in my opinion. As long as you're consistent with your tracking, it doesn't matter and you know the threshold at which you need to beat the close. At that, wherever you're tracking in order to profit, it doesn't matter. I think people get like uber fixated on you need to track against a sharp book, you need to track against wherever you were betting it in the first place. You need to devig the line. You need to do this. 

46:22
Honestly, I think it's a matter of preference. Like again, it's just a principle, right, and over time, you wanna just ensure that you're beating close. I think people get like put too much stock into it. You might disagree with me entirely, but for me personally, I calculate CLV using the Pinnacle closing line, not because Pinnacle is a sponsor of the show, just because it's always been consistent for me, um, but I also place a lot of my bets at pinnacle as well. So it just naturally flowed for me over time where, okay, I'm betting at pinnacle, I'm going to, I'm going to use the closing line there. 

46:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But I think you can be fine with regard regardless of what approach you take, the best way to do it obviously is to create a fuse of a couple books for certain markets, weight everything by market. That would be cool, but if you don't have that accessible or you know, that's not even really worth the time. I would say also with Rob just use Pinnacle For 99.9% of scenarios. That's going to be good enough for what you need to just use, to use Penny, okay, okay, okay, I'm going to skip these two because we're kind of off topic here. 

47:27 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh, no, don't want to get off topic. Well, guy a lot. 

47:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've skipped all I've I've. I did a bunch of the good ones because we have all of the. 

47:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We have all the questions that were brought in on a sheet and I did notice he started by going like the first three or four in order and then he's like been jumping all so he is in his head trying to organize, compartmentalizing this. 

47:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wanted to be a good episode, all right. So this one I obviously should have paired up with the other, golf one, but we're gonna go with it now. Okay, regarding golf betting, should I prioritize betting the largest edges regardless of win probability example outrights and placement bets or bets with relatively lower edges but much higher win probabilities for example, just standard matchups? Is there an optimal way to allocate a weekly betting budget between large edge low probability and low edge, high probability bets? Okay, um, I do understand the question. If you guys didn't understand it at home, just to recap it it's should he be betting too much on his higher edges, even if they're massive pluses, because he's probably going to go bust? 

48:30
The answer is basically to just kind of let Kelly dictate that for you if you want it to bankroll manage completely. In my opinion, I would just let Kelly Criterion dictate so that you're not betting too much. Then just watch your correlation. Right, if you're betting one guy to win the tourney and then you have them in six matchups like, stake that down, but that's it. I also would prioritize personally the. I would not prioritize the higher edge stuff, that is, the lower likelihood of winning. So, on outright, I would prioritize a matchup personally. 

48:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But again it depends on the oats you have, but typically speaking, like if you're plugging those edges into a Kelly calculator. Anyways, Kelly would tell you to bet more on the like the head to head matchup where you have a 2% edge, for example, then the outright where you're betting a 200 to one shot that you have a 4% edge. 

49:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and you got to realize like you're probably going to lose on the year if you're just betting one out, like two outrights per tournament, like you're highly likely to lose on the year doing that, um, and. 

49:27
but if you do win, yeah, it's going to be a massive year if you hit a couple of them. So really depends, but I'd probably prioritize the matchups more or anything that's within minus 150, minus 150, 150 plus 150, sorry, uh, okay, rob, hockey playoffs are coming up. Yep, are there any tidbits or secret advice that Pizzola can share? Also, who is the current best bet to win the cup? And I like when people ask these questions. You know why? Because it puts Rob on the spot. You got to give a cup pick at the current market and I'm going to tail it right now. 

50:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, well, I'll do that. Second, I'll open up Pinnacle's current market on Stanley Cup and I'll give a pick. Second, okay, I'm going to actually record a video on this, probably like a five to ten minute video leading up to the season playoffs. I should say on certain things that I've noticed over the years, so I'll give a few things out here and I'll give more on that separate video. 

50:31
The playoffs are a fundamentally different game than the regular season. If you watch the playoffs in hockey, you would know that. Yet some people look at a bunch of regular season stats and assume that they're going to be applicable in the exact same manner to the postseason. Every postseason in every sport is different. The NBA plays a different way. Major League Baseball plays a different way, in the sense that a starting pitcher might get pulled in the second inning even though he's on 33 pitches because he's struggling or whatever. Every sport is different in the playoffs. You need to realize that before you just go in and think that, oh, I'm going to use my regular season model and going to apply that to the playoffs and I'm going to have success, because you probably aren't. 

51:16
Some of the things that make a difference you're playing the same team over and over in a series. There's something called series effects that happen. Lots of people used to bet the zigzag theory in the NBA right team covers a spread, one game bet against the next game. That used to work for a while. Eventually the market caught up to that. Well, same thing happens in hockey. There's certain scenarios where teams get a bump or the opposite of a bump. I don't know what the opposite of a bump is. As an example team that's down oh two returning home. You don't just give them the standard home ice. They have a much higher likelihood of winning that game three at home, based off of historical results and there's like a little bit of a human component to it as well. But the team is desperate and, like some people will be like, oh, that's just a narrative desperation. Well, well, it's not Like factually. If you go back and look at previous seasons, it matters Not only what the final scores of the games were but how the games transpire. 

52:15
Teams that are down 0-3 in a series, they tend to have a really poor effort in game four. From a human psychology level, it's possible these guys realize that they're done. It's like we're down 0-3. Teams that are typically down 0-3 are the worst teams anyways. You often get a very poor performance out of that team in game four. So understanding those little nuances are very important. 

52:38
And also for in-game betting there's some nuances that you can pick up on as well, for example, the way that games are officiated. I'm not gonna give out all the secrets here. I do like people to do their own work on some of this stuff. But let's just say, officials in the playoffs do not like to skew too heavily towards one team. So if you know that for live betting there's often opportunities where you can pick up on something like that and pick up on, you know, gain your, gain yourself a little bit edge of an edge in a live market on something that, in my opinion, is not factored into the current live line. So those are some of the things right there in terms of differences. More to come on that topic. And now these guys are going to put me on the spot put it on the spot, all right okay, so this is for to win the cup to win the stanley cup, I have it here. 

53:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you want a line shop, you let me know what the teams are now. 

53:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm doing this off the top of my head. This is not an excuse. I'm just letting people know, for full transparency, not running a model and simulation of things, that I have going on right now. The toronto maple leafs at 14-1 are staring me dead in the face. They are staring me directly in the face, moreto just drove off the road listening to this as a realistic Line shopping 15-1. 15-1. What are the Tampa Bay Lightning? 

54:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
right now, TBL would be wow Plus 3,000. 

54:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think that there's that much of a difference going into playoffs between Tampa Bay and potentially them facing Boston in the first round. They're not the team that they were in past years. Vasilevsky hasn't been the same this year since returning from injury. They're the team that stands out to me as someone that I'd be interested in backing At the current price range Tampa Bay plus 3,000. 

54:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, or the Leafs. 

54:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The Leafs. I'm going to back the Leafs. Let's just clear this. Let me just clear the air here. I will bet the Toronto Maple Leafs they are going to go into my account To win the Stanley Cup today. I may already have some Maple Leafs in my account, but the Maple Leafs will go into my account. I cannot say that. I will bet the Tampa Bay Lightning, however, at 31, solid price point for a team that's really not that far off the elite teams Remember Tampa Bay started the year without vasilevsky for a couple of months like this is a team that if you just look at post those first two months of the season, it's pretty much on par with everyone else in the east. So at that price point it's a extremely tough path. But uh, that that would be the bet. 

55:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, I'll give out my pick. I'd rather give out picks anyways. Give me the Dallas Stars Plus 1,200. Kind of chalk, kind of not. But give me the Stars of the West. I know they're going to be in the cup final. I don't know if they'll win it. Might lose to the Leafs, but Leafs-Stars final. 

55:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm doing edge work now on Wednesdays again. And Zach, last week I said I have one Stanley Cup future. I don't want to reveal the Leafs fandom like the Homer bets. Those aren't real bets. They're real bets but they're not placed with any logic in mind. But the one Stanley Cup future I did place earlier this year was the Dallas Stokes. 

56:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What do you have, man? I don't remember the price, but a good price. 

56:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's better than that. 

56:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, all right. 

56:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, let's go Dallas to the finals I mean the whole playoffs is wide open Playoffs is wide open. 

56:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, this is a question just came in, last, second, right now, from my head. Bonnie at Jet Stamp, if the Leafs make the cup finals, somehow we're at home and it goes to game seven. Yeah, how much is the cheapest ticket to get into the arena? How much is it and how much will you pay for it? For that ticket? 

56:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
okay if, if that happens, I'll be at the game how much would you pay unlimited like reason within reason? Well. Well, the thing is like I don't like the question because I'm going to pay it. 

56:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not going to get so if it's 20 grand, you're paying it. 

56:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not going to get to a price point where I wouldn't pay it 20 Gs, but it won't get to 20 Gs. It might get to 20 Gs, it won't be 20 Gs Okay. 

56:56 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm going to go-. 

57:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wait, what was the? 

57:03 - Zack Phillips (Other)
cheapest ticket at the I swear the raptors was insanely you go. Would you go for 30? 

57:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
g's this, okay this. How would you not the cups getting handed out? 

57:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
hear me out here hear me, hear me out, oh what? I go, absolutely. I'm also a married man and I'm gonna. I'll be there, listen, I put my foot down, the foot will go down with the wife and I'd be like, listen, this is, I'm gonna use my one time and this is gonna happen. But that has to be a consideration in my life as well. Has to be a consideration Fair, fair, cause that'll be right around her birthday as well, which is like it's not going to go over. Well, it really won't. My wife does not like sports. She does not enjoy attending sports. She does not enjoy the amount of time I put into watching sports myself. So to tell her, I'm going to drop 30 G's to go watch a hockey game. That's not going to go over, especially because it could be like on her birthday weekend. 

58:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think, I think honestly. I'd say it'll be like 15 to 20. I agree 100%. The thing is, though, it'll and that would be for the cheapest seat, not for, like you know, obviously and up. 

58:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not going to happen, though, because, like the Leafs will win the Cup in four, not in seven. 

58:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, I thought you were going to say it's going to be tough to get a home ice in the cup finals, which this year probably won't be. 

58:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, I know enough season ticket holders that'll have tickets themselves. I'll be there. 

58:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll be there. I'll certainly be there. I will certainly be there for any amount, Because the cup's getting handed out and it might be the Leafs, but fuck what if they lose that game? No, they're not going to lose that game. 

58:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
They won't lose that game. The Raptors parade had two. This is way off topic. Sorry, but the Raptors parade had 2 million people. They said estimate, how many people do you think show up for a Leafs parade if that were to happen? 

58:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So there was a lot of out-of-towners for the Raptors parade as well, because the Raptors are like Canada's team, since the Vancouver Grizzlies left for Memphis. But it will certainly be larger. I don't know how it could possibly be Like I were you at the Raptors parade, johnny. No, I'm not a parade guy. No, okay, you know after that one it's. 

59:17
It was you. I got out out at union station the downtown core. There is no, the downtown core. There is no room to walk, like no room to walk. I've never been in a crowd of that many people in my entire life. It won't be fun, but like I'll do it Because it's going to happen, this year. 

59:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So we would have, as of current day right now, the Leafs would have home ice over Nashville, like out of the West teams Nashville, vegas and LA. So it'd have to be one of those three in the cup finals to get a game seven. But let's hope it happens and we can test out our price theory. 

59:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Be nice if the Leafs went up 3-0 and I could travel to a road game away and watch them win it in four. 

59:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm dreaming. This is never happening. 

01:00:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're not even going to win the first round. I don't know why we're still talking about this, could you? 

01:00:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm not saying it. 

01:00:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Never mind. 

01:00:07 - Zack Phillips (Other)
What Zach Say it? No, I was going to say could you imagine how insane it would be here if they won here? Like it would be nuts here if they won on the road. But if they won here I feel like it would just be, it would be nuts. 

01:00:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's going to be like Niagara Falls on Monday for the eclipse. 

01:00:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's a 20,000 person arena, and if they went to game seven of the cup finals, I would say there's going to be at least 10,000 people in there. No jurors. That's how embarrassing it is, though, dude. Have you heard? I know. 

01:00:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm sorry to change the subject, but they have declared a state of emergency in Niagara Falls for Monday's solar eclipse because they expect so many people to be there, because it's like the best spot in North America that you'll be able to see this full solar eclipse. 

01:00:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Anybody give a fuck about this thing. 

01:00:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, I'll put the glasses on and watch it, but just to say I did, but they're literally canceled. People booked hotels years ago for this and they literally canceled. A lot of these hotels have canceled those reservations because they gave like regular room rates. So they just canceled the reservations and said the room rates are now like $2,000. 

01:01:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They got free rolled on their futures bets. 

01:01:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, big time big time State of emergency in advance of. I mean it'd be pretty cool, like total darkness during the day. The wildlife don't know what to do anymore. You know it's like one of those situations. But why do I need to go to niagara? 

01:01:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean we're gonna see like 98 of it from toronto. I don't need to see the 100 eclipse. I'd be around that many people it is. Yeah, whatever I mean I'm gonna. 

01:01:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll check it out. When is it? Uh, I think it's like 2 30 in the afternoon on wednesday on wednesday eastern time. You should do a live watch along, honestly yeah, we should live watch along we, we all, draw straws and one of us has to watch it without glasses on, without this protective glasses no, is this the one you can do without the glasses? No, you need to know. You need fry your retinas if you do this thing. 

01:02:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, for this one yeah, I thought that's for the solar eclipse this is. 

01:02:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is the, the, the moon passing. So basically, what's happening here is you still be able to see the outer edge of the sun, but because it's not super bright, you can look in like right now. If you look at the sun, you can't deal with it, right, you look away immediately. You cannot stare at the sun for like more than a couple seconds because of the brightness. This is going to still have the same level of brightness, but just the outer ring, so you can stare at it without your eyes telling you like I can't stare at it anymore. 

01:02:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's going to cause some damage, cause some real damage. Better put those glasses on. Thank you, Professor Pizzola. 

01:02:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've been doing my research on this State of emergency in Niagara Falls. 

01:02:46 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Look, it's the first thing on Amazon I went to go find these, and this is the first one. 

01:02:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, man find these, and this is the first one. Yeah, man, today's deals, bro, this guy's been trying to produce those for years. He finally got his big break those solar eclipse glasses. He's his super ball all right. 

01:03:02
Imagine a real live watch along of the solar eclipse I would not, I would not hear niagara falls and this is getting dark uh guy asked here uh, would you recommend uh going to bet bash? He gives us some information about himself, like rough profits, whatever. I would say this I'm going to give my uh my plug for it. I'd recommend going. If you have the means to go and if it's not that much of an inconvenience to you, I'd make the trip out. Um, you know I'm planning to go again this year. I think it should be great. It's it is a full week, so you have to kind of set aside a week. You put a a hotel ticket, whatever. It's not cheap to go, but you're going to do well there in terms of networking. Anyone who's serious about betting in this game. I'd highly recommend going. Just talk to other people in the space and it should be fun. 

01:03:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I was going to recommend going to Bet Bash but then Spanky went on this big marketing campaign that he's doing now and retweeting all this bet bash stuff and I'm not going to recommend it anymore because it's clogging up my timeline. 

01:03:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair no go to bet, bash honestly uh, it's a great time it's clogging up rob's top timeline. 

01:04:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't, I don't know it's retweeted like a hundred million things yesterday of people like, yeah, like I get it. You know what? He's a better like uh marketer than than most people out there. He might put some effort into it. He would be Bookett Trent. 

01:04:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He'd be better than Bookett Trent. I haven't seen Bookett Trent in a while. 

01:04:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, don't worry, he's just been losing parlays left and right. 

01:04:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Is he still kicking, is he still doing well? 

01:04:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Actual, true story. True story. I'll see if I could get the receipts to prove it. But one of my friends has been parlaying the opposites of Trent's parlays for the NCAA tournament and he got limited at a sportsbook and all he's done is just base the opposite bets of Trent's parlays. 

01:04:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How was he getting CLV on him? 

01:04:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think he's getting clv, but he, he won, he won substantially. Wow there. There's been like, honestly, how many days of the ncaa tournament like 10, no, not even, not even eight. I think trent got reverse, swept on three or four of those days like actual picked four or five games to put into a parlay and every single leg lost. I don't know how the guy does it. Honestly, hilarious. 

01:05:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, rob, thanks for all you do. I've been watching your pinnacle videos and you often talk about it being advantageous to bet as early as possible. Does it also apply if you're top-down betting? 

01:05:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, generally speaking, the market becomes more efficient over time. So if you're top-down betting, generally speaking, the later you do it, the better off. You're gonna be Like when I say bet as early as possible in those videos I'm often talking about for those who are recreational bettors, who are like, if you're gonna wait to the last minute to bet an NBA game or an NHL game or MLB game or whatever it is, and you're gonna throw down a hundred bucks like two minutes before tip off, like don't do that. Just, you might as well throw down that a hundred bucks way earlier in the day where you actually have a chance to beat the close. That's what I'm referring to there. 

01:06:02
There are situations where it's better off and can be more beneficial to wait until the last minute. But with top down betting listen, I mean I do some top down betting now through the bet stamp prop tool and sometimes I'll do some stuff in the morning because, whatever I mean, sometimes the the move's gonna work against you, sometimes it's gonna work with you. It's like, you know, people are like I just wait till the last minute. I'm like I don't always have time to wait till the last minute, so I'll fire some bets a little earlier in the day. If, listen, a player gets ruled out and it negatively impacts my, so be it, but there's also the chance that a player on the other team gets ruled out and it positively impacts my bet, or? 

01:06:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
something like that. You certainly don't need to wait until the last minute. You've got to be betting whenever the edges pop up and then, if you know what you're doing, then it'll work. And then what's going to happen is you might place 10 bets early in the day and seven of them are good and three of them end up not being good, but the whole bundle got good value, and then that's what you got, so you don't need to wait until before the game. In fact, I would always recommend betting at all the time whenever the edge is there and just keep going like that. 

01:07:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say and I don't have a lot of experience with top-down betting, but I have noticed Leaving so much money on the table if you're only betting before the game. 

01:07:15
Yeah, I agree. I mean I see edges all day long. I do. Now, granted, we're in Ontario, we have like tons of outs available to us, but I'm sure that this would happen in any market. I will say, with the top down betting, like let's say, the half hour leading up to NBA tip off sometimes you get some information that happens before that that I tend to see more edges pop up during that time. I don't know if you agree or disagree with me, this is just from my limited experience, but yeah, I mean, like a lot of the stuff that I bet earlier in the day has gone by the time tip-off comes, so like, why am I just going to wait for tip-off to bet everything? 

01:07:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So okay, we got what is the biggest piece of advice you can give to people betting the NFL draft. Okay to people betting the NFL draft. 

01:07:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I didn't see this question, so, okay, actually I have a really good one. I don't know if it's a really good one. I just said that because it's a piece of advice coming from me, more so a mistake that I see people make all the time. I've already seen it happen a million times on Twitter. 

01:08:08
Remember what your goal is when you're betting the NFL draft. Your goal is to predict what individual teams are going to do in their spots. Once again, let me repeat that you have to predict what individual teams are going to do in those spots. How many times I've seen over the years people lose bets on the draft and then they're like, oh, this GM's a moron, he should have done this, he should have done that. That's not the goal. The goal is to handicap what they are going to do, not what they should do. Those are two very different things. So if you're going to bet the draft based off of like this team needs a cornerback, they're probably going corner. That's not the way to do it. 

01:08:53
There's a lot of GMs that have specific tendencies, whether that's wanting to trade down drafting positions that are not necessarily positions of need. There's a lot of things that you can look at past data points. That's what you should do if you bet the NFL draft. I would say most of the mock drafts that are out there are garbage. They're fluff. You know they're fluff clickbait. They're not necessarily built off of any information whatsoever. The ones that are will move the market as soon as they are released. But your goal and the piece of advice I give to you is figure out what teams are going to do, not what you think they're gonna do. 

01:09:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, there you go. That's, that is good advice. 

01:09:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then obviously news-based stuff and line shopping is yeah, there's like there's lots of stuff you could get into there, but like that's it's such a critical mistake. It happens with all my friends. I see this as rec bettors all the time oh, these guys needed a tight end and they're gonna pass on this guy. It's like they never draft tight ends or like they don't draft offensive skill position players early. Like why are you betting that? Forget about what you think they should do. Like, forget about what you think they should do. I cannot preach that enough. 

01:10:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay. 

01:10:02
So we had a couple of questions, also on the bet stamp prop screen, so I grouped these together. How are you guys calculating true lines for a bet stamp prop screen? So whoever asked that which I don't know what it is because it came in through YouTube, that would, I would assume. If you know that, then you're already using the product, so just message the support chat and then that'll be the answer for that one. Up next, is the screen still worth using if I'm already originating props? All right, this is a one that a lot of people did ask. If I'll go more in general, if you're using a prop screen and originating, or using a game screen originating, it's still going to be super valuable to use the screen. So I mentioned before, like needing to know what the lines are at. Obviously, if you're originating, you can still increase your edge significantly by still shopping around for different plays, different player props, things like that. So if you're actually originating, it's more important to be using a screen, um, than to just like go bet and whatever, and if you're line shopping by hand, it's going to take a lot of time. So if you're originating, let's say you're originating. For example, I won't even relate to props, originating MLB like all right, I make the angels minus one 30 today, you should still take a look at the market and see where the market's at and see which books are there, where has it moved from, where has it come from? Things like that you're also going to be able to take advantage of other people who are originating and seeing where they're coming in. So if you're originating a player prop, what you're going to want to do is, if you're using the BetStamp player prop screen the new screen that we've been using, which I know a lot of you guys have and we'll get into the next question after but if you're using that screen and you hit the line history, you can see when people started to bet it. It's like, oh shit, these lines are moving at 10.30 am. That must be when another guy's coming in. So if I see this move and he's coming at 10.30 am and I'm originating, I like this play. I better go at 10.30. If he's opposite it, if you're originating, it doesn't really matter. 

01:11:59
For props, games, whatever, use an odd screen. You need to know where the market has. A single, most important thing that you can have when you're actually betting is where's the market at. Where can I get down? Where can I make more money? And then, lastly, is still want to try the bet stamp prop screen? Okay. So if anyone still want to try the BetStamp prop screen, okay. 

01:12:12
So if anyone still wants to try the screen, we did fill all the spots for March, so I know the team's going through a couple more meetings. We filled everything that we had on the original tranche. We're going to be opening up another one, maybe within the next month or so. We're still gauging, looking through everything like that. We see, like repeat purchases, things like that, that we will contact us the same email as prior, which is contact at betstampapp. If you, uh, if you're interested, if you're betting props probably won't get to it right away. We'll make sure we get you like a response and then we'll schedule something over the next couple weeks. But, uh, thanks everyone for your support. We had like rob I didn. 

01:12:53
I didn't even mention him a little bit, but the amount of people that actually reached out, that are betting crazy. 

01:12:58
I want to say this on air we have the best listener group and the best support group on this podcast ever. I didn't think it was even close to this powerful For anyone who's listening at home. I was reached out to personally by at least over 300 people and all of which and we had way more interest as well, but all of the people are like. I took calls one on one with a lot of you guys and a lot of you probably listening today, like a lot of people are winning money betting on sports. A lot of people are listening to this podcast, listening to other resources, putting in the time, purchasing the right tools, technology, whether it be full-time or as a side hustle. There's a ton of people who are already starting to out-earn their day job, or have already been out-earning their day job for years, and very happy with what we've built on this pod. I never really knew that the community was that big until the player props message from a couple weeks back, but you guys all rock and thank you very much you very much. 

01:13:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm not for those that know me like, I'm a horrible salesperson, generally don't market myself very well. I saw spanky tweet something the other day about spank odds. That kind of resonated with me. But uh, it was people asking like, do I need spank odds? Should I pay for it? And he basically said that in the space I would only consider purchasing tools that other pro bettors are purchasing themselves, and I can tell you that we've had a lot of other pro bettors, including ones that have been on the podcast, that are using the tool daily. I'm a pro, better, I'm using it daily. It's opened up another revenue stream for me. So, honestly, I strongly believe in what we've built, and we've built it in a fashion where we don't believe that we're going to be eroding edges for everyone out there based off of the way that we're rolling this out. So if you want to check it out, do so. You can reach out to BetStamp via DMs or the email that Johnny provided as well. And while we're here, we're almost at 6k subs here on Circles Off. 

01:14:53
Appreciate everyone who subbed here, but help us get over the top here. Obviously, me and Johnny don't pay ourselves for this. You know we're doing what we can to try to grow this community. It's very challenging to do so in this space. We are sharp bettors that are trying to appeal to other sharp bettors, but also trying not to alienate people who just find us out of nowhere and trying to produce content that is very diverse and can frankly appeal to everyone. Please do what you can to support the show. We appreciate it. Make sure you sub down below. Make sure you smash that like button as well. Goes a long way to telling YouTube that people really enjoy the content, but we are very appreciative of everyone that is out there. 

01:15:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, robin and zach are also working on some hammer merch, so we should have that live within the week. No, I'm complete I'm, I'm completely talking shit. They are not they. I don't know if they're working on it or not, but I completely just threw zach under bro. Get the merch source now we do have. 

01:15:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We do have some merch that will be coming for football season Hammer merch, hammer merch that's coming for football season. Hoodies, we're going to have some stuff. 

01:16:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
We are working on it, but saying this week was outrageous who's designing the merch? 

01:16:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're working on it. We're working on it, but who's designing it? You? 

01:16:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
We're working on it, brother, we. But who's designing it? You Some of them. 

01:16:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Some of them are designing it. We got a designer. You're designing classic merch. 

01:16:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We got a designer. There's a lot of go-to phrases that certain people use that are going to be put on like maybe some hit the books and for progress and potentially circles off merch as well, is it? 

01:16:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
merch for sale or for just internal use. 

01:16:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Start with giveaways. What do you mean? Internal use? I don't know. Am what do you mean internal use? I don't know. Am I getting a sweater? Yeah, of course you're going to get. We'll give you a sweater. It's not going to be an issue. You don't have to pay for the merch through the Hammer store, but there will be more on that in the future. 

01:16:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's coming down the pipeline. We have like five more questions but honestly it's a long episode already. 

01:16:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe we save these till next time. I want get to one a minus ev. 

01:16:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, let's get into that cv too. I have a. I have a minus ev. 

01:16:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I guess mine could just like every like three quarters of the stuff we give out on the show. Mine could be plus or minus depending on how I spin it. But uh, zach, why don't you lead it off here if? 

01:17:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
we didn't get to your question, I feel I feel, bad. Okay, this guy has when's tortellini gonna place another wager? 

01:17:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I don't know he might even be dead he's still alive but I'm very much contemplating Tortellini going to like a Putting him down. No, not putting him down. 

01:17:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Whoa, whoa relax, I didn't. 

01:17:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, he's not an ill tortoise where I have to put. Also, I don't even know if that's a thing, I don't think it's a thing Like with dogs and cats, sure, like you could tell when they're sick. Anyways, tortellini, the weirdest thing ever. Good dude Tortellini keeps me company in my office while I'm working during the day, you know, but he's a liability when I want to travel because, like, I got to get someone to come over and feed him lettuce every day and whatever. So I don't know what I'm going to do with Tortellini. Honestly, he's a great, great pet, but he's a lot of work. I think he might go to a reptile sanctuary at some point. I appreciate that. 

01:18:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, I'm going to read the rest, because I want everyone to at least have their question read what's the most exploitable edge you ever had in your lifetime? 

01:18:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you think something will ever come back? Yes, something will come back. 

01:18:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm not going to say the edge, but certainly stuff will come back. What's your favorite? I had a past posting edge on. Uh. I told you back in a previous episode that's never coming back. 

01:18:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was like a one and done, and even if it came back, they would never pay you out on that now there you go, never. 

01:18:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What are your favorite football films, documentaries, 30 for 30, specials. My favorite 30 for 30 is, you don't know, bo Jackson. What do you like? 

01:18:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Football specific, Nothing's coming to mind as like must watch From a sports documentary point of view, if you never watched Senna, which is a Formula One documentary about Ayrton Senna. I really enjoyed that Really well filmed and it's just like all video that was captured in the moment over his life. So cop out, answer, because it's not football related. But I'll watch anything football Like. That's the problem. You can't. What do you know? Little Giants is a great football movie as well. 

01:19:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If anyone's never watched it Little Giants and then okay. Well, that's it for the questions. I think we're good. All right, what's your negative EV? 

01:19:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, let's start with Zach. Let's start on the positive note and end on the negative note. 

01:19:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
All right, this one's not even mine, but I promised him I would say it. This was submitted to me by our good friend. I think he changed his name on Twitter now, but EV Prop Dude. Oh okay, okay, can you do an honorary plus EV move of the week from friend of the program, prop dude? I said, sure, brushing your teeth after lunch, or three times a day in brackets, having fresh breath for the afternoon, is a top 20 feeling of all time. And I said yep, sounds great. 

01:19:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's as positive as three know the week three. Three x brush per day, yeah, or more. You know there's a guy here on this floor who brushes after after lunch, but it's tough to catch him in the washroom. 

01:20:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You just yeah, I, I brush after lunch, when I'm at home, when I'm working from home, because it's a lot easier. When you're in more of a workplace setting it's a little bit more challenging I've seen people bring like the kits to office before. Nothing against them. It's fine, but like I'm not going to be the guy that does that, yeah, I'm a minimum two brush a day guy. 

01:20:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I never miss double brush before bed. Wake up in the morning, I can't sleep if I don't brush. So I'm a double brush guy. Occasionally you mix in a third whatever, but I don't know about at work, definitely not a consistent three brusher. 

01:20:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean listen, I can see how that's a plus ev definitely definitely plus good good hygiene and whatever makes you feel good, that's plus ev, there's nothing worse than talking to someone up close and they're just talking and you're just stuck there and, like their breath smells, you gotta back up and dumpster. 

01:20:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's, there's nothing all right, I got my minus. All right, I was given this as a gift, which, if you can even call it a gift, explain what it is. It's just a portable coffee mug by somebody who said that was complaining that I consume too many paper cups throughout the day. All right, now let me tell you something. This now I have to just be responsible for this, and I'm a very responsible guy. I don't lose stuff. I never lose stuff, so I'm not going to be the guy who loses this and forgets somewhere. It won't be forgotten. It's mine for good now, because I won't lose it. But now I gotta be responsible for this, the way rob's responsible for his tortoise. I want to go home. I gotta bring this mug. I want to go go get a coffee. I gotta bring this mug. What if I'm coming from the bathroom and I want to go get a coffee? I got to bring this mug. What if I'm coming from the bathroom and I want to go get a coffee? Oh, I can't, I don't have my mug. I got to go get this back. 

01:21:38
Terrible negative EV move. An extra level of responsibility, an extra level of something that you need to think about, and you lose a lot of flexibility there in terms of being able to get a coffee on the go, things like that. You know, I like to also drive. When I drive, I like to bring a coffee for the road and then now usually I bring that coffee in wherever I go. But if I go somewhere now now, let's say I'm going to the gym and I'm finishing up a coffee, now I gotta be responsible, put this in the gym, whereas I could have just had that coffee cup garbage and I'm back. So there you go. Obviously, for the environmentalist, I'm sure we don't have many that listen to this show. But yeah, negative EV move of the week very clearly is using. I got to find a way to lose this by accident. Yeah, slash on purpose. 

01:22:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Any of the environmentalists that are going to call Johnny out. He does drive an electric car as well, so he's supporting the environment. It drives, yeah, yeah, there you go. That's why I Okay, I have a bone to pick with April Fool's Day. All right, okay, just passed April Fool's. It's fun. When you're a kid, you know you tie another kid's shoes together. He trips over his feet. Y'all laugh, haha, april Fool's, whatever. You know. A couple of jokes in the playground. We're all adults now on social media. First of all, if you're consuming content on April fool's day and you think any of this stuff is real, you need to get your head head check. 

01:22:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
this stemmed from joey toon's telegram this week where he he posted an article that rory mccroy was joined, I feel like more and more people every year are getting got by april fool's jokes. It's getting worse. They are. 

01:23:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But here's why, and this is I don't know where this falls in the plus ev, minus ev. But but news outlets that do April Fool's stories, those news outlets can fucking go to hell. Like seriously. First of all, these news stories, they don't just appear the day. Like anyone who consumes news through any sort of feed, google News or whatever, you're going to get served news from two or three days ago. So there's an article today in my news feed about how the blue jays are lowering prices of beers to seven dollars, hot dogs to four dollars or whatever. I'm like oh, that's cool, whatever it's april fool's story from blog to yo. Like what a horrible, horrible. Like that's in the feed the next day. Like this has has to stop. This is a joke, man. This is not. I will. I am boycotting news outlets that post April Fool's. 

01:24:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Block, block, tio, and then there you go. That's your first start, first starters that's your first negative EV move. 

01:24:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Google serving up stuff to me and I don't know what they're going to do. It's based off of my preferences, right, it's based off of, but like I get stuff in here from three days ago that I might not have read, now, on April 4th, when this episode is getting released, I may get a story from April 1st. Now I'm gonna have to click into it and see if it's an April. This is like a catastrophe. It's all click. It's all for clicks, man. This is what really bothers me, man. It it's all for clicks, man. This is what really bothers me, man. 

01:24:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It drives me crazy that we live in this world where it's all for clicks. 

01:24:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want to get God. I don't want to be Joey Toons thinking Rory McIlroy is going on the live tour. That's not what my life is about. I'm boycotting April Fool's from now on. 

01:24:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Donezo. 

01:24:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Done. 

01:24:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
April Fool's is not a day to be in. 

01:24:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I haven, from now on, donzo done. April fools is not a day. I haven't celebrated that in years. I don't celebrate it, I don't do anything, but I don't want to have to trip. It's such a shitty day I have to triple check everything. I'm reading like everything could be a joke. Come on, what. What is this? 

01:25:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
what is this? You go, steam, you go, try to steam the market after a player gets ruled out dude. 

01:25:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If that ever happened, oh my god, if that ever happened, I would I ever happened. We're not far off from that happening. No, it's going to happen. We should be doing that. Yeah, you think so. Maybe just make a complete 180? 

01:25:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Put that out and then steam back on the market. 

01:25:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
According to sources. According to sources, that's all you got to do at the end of the day. 

01:25:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
According to sources. A couple more things. By the time we release this episode, it's going to be Thursday. By the following week, matthews may have 70 goals. That's one thing. Will you think he'll have 70? He needs eight and eight it's possible. It would be a good achievement for Toronto hockey fans. But yeah, we're out. Thank you everybody for listening. This is the Q&A mid-fall, low-quality content, low effort, low mid fall low quality uh content low effort low effort, high quality. 

01:25:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We got to improve on our Hagrid uh BPR rating. 

01:25:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Didn't even arrange the questions that that well, although we did our best, um, if we can leave you with a couple of things, go to uh, email us. Contact at bed stampapp If you want to learn more about the props tool. You want to learn more about the props tool. It's not for everybody, but it's for a lot of you. You can make some money. Um, go for it. Uh. 

01:26:16
Second, please like and subscribe on here. And then, lastly, if you have a friend that you know he's, he's, don't send this to anyone who, like, really, really sucks at betting, because they're not going to learn it. But if you want to share the podcast with anybody who's like on their way you know, if they're on their way don't send it to the guy who's like oh bro, I got these six same game parlays and they're all garbage and he's betting like a dollar. But if there's people who are actually trying to learn betting, shoot them the podcast and be like hey, just listen to these guys for a sec and figure it out. They might learn something, they might stick, they might not. But appreciate everybody, we'll see y'all next week. You.