00:00 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Rob, when you were posting your super contest picks I think it was and you were going about 500, and you were touting yourself as a pretty good NFL gambler, I thought you were an idiot, come on, let's go. 

00:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 155, right here, part of the Henry Betting Network and presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. 

00:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from Betstamp Back in the saddle again. The Martin martingale better who commented last week oh, I was trying to parlay me not getting on the episode. You're down two units. However, if you keep going, this one I think you'll win. There's no way I'm going to be on every single episode. 

00:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The martingale system the martingale system will work for if you're betting on whether or not john, but you might get to a point where you're risking like 500K. 

00:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And who's going to take that bet. That's the thing, not with the betting limits nowadays, not with the betting limits nowadays. 

00:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, you can get these betting limits at Pinnacle Sportsbook, obviously. 

00:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Pinnacle If anyone was going to offer these limits. 

00:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If anyone was going to offer them, it would be the world's sharpest sports to bettors in Ontario. Find out what the pros have known for decades 25 years to be exact. Pinnacle's where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus. Not available in the US. As always, please play responsibly. If you do want to support us here on Circles Off, use code HAMMER when you sign up at Pinnacle. It goes a long way to helping us continue doing this show. 

01:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And if you're a fan of the show, please consider buying the merch. Rob and zach. They've been, they're trying to put, they're trying to put this merch out. No, we're just kidding. We don't have merch yet, but rob, get the merch. 

01:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The people want the merch, I will get merch, I will get merch. Uh, last week's episode kyle curms the sauce reaction. What a roller coaster reading through those comments, dude hilarious, there was one guy that was like he, he, I think he was responding like every 10 minutes of the video. 

01:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We have like well over a hundred comments so far it's only been. It's pretty mixed. It's pretty mixed, pretty mixed reviews. A lot of funny ones. Um, I think one guy here commented four or five times. He was commenting reaction, reaction, uh, real time. So you started it off with like a oh no, you guys are going to go in on Kyle, I can't believe this. And then as we were going, his like blood red, mad, angry meter was like going up and down. He'd be like I can't believe you guys, this is like OK, good point on this, at least you're fair. And then at the end he commented. What did he comment? 

02:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's like I think I owe you guys an apology or something like that. 

02:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was a fair video. It was a fair video. 

02:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was pretty funny. We did tag Kyle when we released the video on Twitter, which, like, if you're gonna do a reaction video, whether it's positive or negative, the person's gonna find out anyways, you might as well tag them. But he watched it instantaneously, responded, said he found it funny, dm me on Twitter and we've done reaction videos before where we've reached out to people who had zero interest in coming on Simon Hunter but the sauce. He said that he would represent himself. And listen, he said I've changed a lot as a better since that original video, so we're going to try to have Kyle Kerms the sauce on at some point in the future. But yeah, these videos are. I find them very fun to do. I'm not going to lie because it's just easy and I like to react in real time. I don't like to think about things too much but, um, yeah, very mixed reactions on this one. 

03:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I would like I wasn't even going to bring this up, actually, but you know what I will now I I a bunch of comments here, as Rob said, to calm below, basically criticizing me on the Dave Portnoy stance. Okay. 

03:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I was going to bring it up if you didn't, so I'm glad you brought it up. 

03:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A bunch of people criticize me on the Dave Portnoy stance. 

03:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You apparently think that, like Dave Portnoy, is a better, better than me. 

03:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wasn't saying that specifically. But you know what? Do I even want to give it out? I don't want to defend myself. Do I even need to? 

03:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think you should. There's a collection of people that think you're an idiot you might as well defend yourself. 

03:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I was a bit hesitant when I said it. I'm like, well, actually, you know what? Yeah, I kind of agree. And then Rob's like really, zach's, zach. I'm like come on, I'm like all right, fine, because I didn't want to say this, I didn't want to like I know that you were. 

04:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can tell by your reactions that you were holding something back there, Like you wanted to say something, but then you were thinking about. Should I say this? 

04:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Think of it this way, all right. Why would I say that dave portnoy's bet might be more important than a nothing bet? Do? You want me to answer that. Do you know why? Why would I be saying that you, you could portnoy's million dollar bet? Yes, could be something you could. 

04:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You could be implying that it's not dave portnoy's bet that would be a sharp thing. Yeah, we'd be idiots to say that this doesn't happen, like it most certainly happens in the industry, where somebody is a pretty high profile, better, that doesn't win. And somebody might reach out to them and be like hey, do you want to actually win? 

05:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If Dave Portnoy, who right now is painted in the media as a notorious bad better who bets big, okay, so pretty much a sportsbook's dream to be booking dave portnoy right now, would you agree? I would agree you'd agree it's a sport. 

05:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's not even getting good numbers on his bets. 

05:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's betting. He's betting a million dollars, five hundred thousand, five hundred on spread, five hundred money, like. Whatever he's betting. He's betting big million dollars 500,000, 500 on spread 500 money line. Whatever he's betting, he's betting big amounts on stuff and he's a perceived guy who doesn't know what he's doing betting sports. He's just a rich sports fan from a media company who had a bunch of things. So let's say Portnoy loses, he's losing money right now. Let's say he loses 10 mil. Let's say he loses 15 mil betting. Now he's got a couple books where he's got probably at least one book where you can click maybe a mil, maybe two mil. He's got a lot of runway, maybe five mil, yeah, on a single game. 

05:55
Now think of it this way if you, if, if dave portnoy can click a mil on a game or five mil on a game, would that or would that not be super valuable for a sharp sports betting group to potentially get access to or potentially work with somebody? Now, I'm not saying this happens with dave portnoy. In fact I would estimate it doesn't. It probably doesn't right now, yeah. However, there's been a lot of celebrities in the past where we know for a fact that it has happened right. 

06:19
Um, you look back to certain golfers. Certain things like that have been in the news where that actually has been relatively public knowledge, it's confirmed. You can look it up. So when you guys are saying, oh, the bet size, it only matters if you're a sharp guy. Anyone who's moving size in the space and can get down size is going to be relevant at some capacity at some time frame. It may not be right now, but all I'm saying is this If you were just going to flat out say, oh, dave Portnoy's bets, somebody will eventually get burned booking Dave Portnoy. That's what I will say. All right, I'd wager that I'd take the yes that somebody gets burned booking Portnoy in the future. 

07:04
If you offered me even money, dude and he's such a guy that he's such a guy that would partner with someone? No, but is he? Yes, dude, you know how much of a petty guy is if you ever listen to dave portnoy I do, I, I and he's, and he's smart, smart guy I've. 

07:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've met portnoy uh, uh before. I mean, this was long before barstool became big, same with big cat. I like this content. I think it's very funny. I find him amusing, I don't. I think he's like he values his opinion too much. 

07:37 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You know what I'm getting at. I think his ego is too big, Like I know. 

07:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know it's like Davey Day Trader right. Yeah. 

07:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sure, sure, so maybe he wouldn't do it. But all I'm saying is like the point was I understand the point I actually to go back and defend even further. 

07:54
If you re-watch the clip I, what I actually said was you guys said, hey, it matters, only like the size only matters if of the of the best size of that only matters if you're a professional. And what I said was like even if you're a professional, and what I said was like even if you're not a professional, it's still. It's still matters, yeah. And then Zach kind of brought in like Dave Portnoy or whatever, and at this current example, like I'm not going to go on record and say I think Dave Portnoy wins on his current bets, but I would factor that in. I would be weary of that If he is betting at massive size consistently. I would take stock in that and be weary of it. How I'd use that information unclear. Maybe there's no way to benefit off of that right now, but that's all I'm saying. 

08:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So just to defend myself on the call, which I shouldn't even have to do. Well, you know what? It's a valid point. I'll give you that. 

08:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I still don't think you're going to build F1 car ever, but I think this one the F1 car also is. I did see a guy comment on Twitter saying I used to think he couldn't build the car, but after getting into F1 and researching it I'll now take that he could build it in a shorter timeframe. 

08:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, yes, a guy commented that on Twitter. 

08:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't believe that that comment existed Go check the Twitter, I'm going to go Okay, I'll pull it up right now. Okay, pull it up right now. 

09:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think I've told you this story before. I don't know if I've told it on air Bet Bash 2, there was a bookie better breakfast thing. I was at a table with, like Peter Jennings, former host of 90 Degrees, kevin Davis. There was a couple guys there, one of whom was a NASCAR mechanic, and he told me to relay a message to you. I don't know if I ever did, but he's like. You gotta tell Johnny that me as a mechanic right now, if you gave me all of the everything I couldn't do. It couldn't physically pull it off. There's too many things that are required in F1 car that'll take multiple people regardless because of the balancing issues that you would have. Building it yourself it could be done. Most importantly, though, we got a comment. Is Johnny aware that it's supposed to be a g-note and not a geno? 

09:56
I still call it a geno yeah, obviously he's aware I wanted to get at that. There's a lot of fire comments from last week, by the way. 

10:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, here it is, zach. Look at this guy's comment. Believe it or not, he can. A year ago I said no, spent some time studying manufacturing due to the Russian-Ukrainian war. I can say he can in a shorter period, with the right machinery and tools. And you know what? Skylander 5, you're a real one. I appreciate you, man, and if we ever do the bet, I'll toss you some money of Rob's money after. 

10:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I take it off him. This is Johnny's. If we ever wanted to find Johnny's burner account, it's Skylander 5. 

10:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Absolutely not my burner. 

10:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wouldn't do that, guys. A few more things I just want to touch on randomly because I'm seeing them now. For, like, the people who are like you got to have, like, you should just have the person on instead of doing a reaction. Like reaction videos exist across YouTube, in every realm Music movies, whatever. You can't just have everybody on. Like, that's not the point of a reaction video. The point of the reaction video is to react to the content that was produced. So, like, yeah, we'll give him his fair shake. But like, if we just brought him on and be like, yeah, we watched your video and this and that, like, it's not good content, it's kind of sucks, honestly. 

11:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I just want to and some people were mad about ClickBandim and the title. 

11:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now, that's on Zach. 

11:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's on Zach, first of all. First of all, that's on Zach. 

11:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is on Zach, so people are really upset because they came and they thought this was an interview. They thought we were interviewing the sauce. The title is how to Bet for Income. Kyle Kerms, the Sauce Reaction. Reaction right away, I think, gives it away Like throws his producer right under the bus. But the thumbnail has a picture of the sauce and people are like no you don't. I'm like no, you do, Like you do? You literally do that for every reaction video that exists? 

12:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's a thumbnail of what you're reacting to. Did you guys see producer Zach? You might have exists. There's a thumbnail of what you guys see, producer zach, you might like someone. Did you guys see that? Islam makachev, the ufc 155 pound champ? Uh, he's a dagestani fighter really good, some one of the best. Right now. He's on an interview, like on a podcast, and then he just looks and he's like he's there's just the producer is on the show as well, on the camera right, so he's like doing the video interview and the producer's there obviously just just producing. And then Makhachev's like he just pauses after an answer and he's like who is this guy? He's just standing here asking no questions. And then the guy's like, oh, it's just the producer. He's like editing the video. 

12:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, Well Zach successfully click baited everyone into watching this video, apparently successfully click baited everyone into watching this video. 

12:47 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Apparently I have one good comment, because it got sent to me a couple of times. I actually laughed out loud reading this. 

12:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, haggren, bpr put out the yeah, he gave us a two out of ten. 

12:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, that's fine I I will say for the uh he said my thing about portland is the dumbest condom he had now. Oh, how dumb you feel now, haggren, there you go okay, no, no, the the. 

13:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say also the rating systems like this I don't know Hagrid, but I've like I've interacted with him enough and like followed him enough over time that that type of video is not what he's going to be into. Like he really wants to learn more about he's already a very skilled bettor, but he wants to learn and acquire knowledge. And more about he's already a very skilled better, but he wants to learn and acquire knowledge. You're not going to like a reaction video, so we can't take that too seriously, no, no, no, but there's this part so well. 

13:30 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He also does say uh, this isn't for me. It gets as popular, but he, he is not going to enjoy this. Uh, this is the part that everyone, everyone sent to me. Uh, even the producer zach is like come on, which is all you need to know wow, you guys no, that was in regards to the port. 

13:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, it was in regards to the port, but it's a direct shot at you. No, no, it wasn't, it was. Yeah, yes, it's a shot at me, it's a direct shot in the producer zach was like come on, which is all you need to know. 

14:00 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Wow, I read that. I laughed out loud, but I was like what the fuck? 

14:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it's not very nice of haggard, by the way, then johnny says we should have kyle creams on. 

14:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's like, yeah, that's exactly what you gotta do. Are we having him on or no? 

14:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, I'm gonna reach out. Uh, we've already been interacting. We're gonna we're gonna coordinate a date to have him on. I think we should have him on, like, honestly, listen, I love doing content. We're we're very much in the business of putting together good content that got a lot of views and they're not just fake views, like our average watch time on that video is 154th episode in the first week is the highest average watch time we've ever had on any video. So it was also a blast to record that one. 

14:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A lot of fun. 

14:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So like people were into it and they watched it. So I don't know what else to do. Like we got to do it, we're going to do it. Also, there's this one guy who keeps asking about this Tim Brown bobblehead. I don't know how the hell that did it. 

14:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, this is not mine. He said, Johnny, what's the story? 

14:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is not mine. I don't know how that Tim Brown bobble. Was that in our old studio? 

15:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no no, no, this is new. Whose is this? Yours? There's actually brought, it's mine what's the story behind this? 

15:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
okay, the story is also, if you see in front of rob there which cut the camera there, people can see that one. Uh as well. I believe it was my grandpa was cleaning out the his basement and like getting rid of a bunch of shit. And I went over there to pick up golf balls and, um, he's like, do you want these? 

15:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm just gonna throw them out you probably shouldn't play golf balls from three decades earlier. No, they're nice, good ones. 

15:30 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh, they're good ones, my grandpa's like, uh, he golfs every single day. He's not playing with shit balls, but yeah, so he collects the boxes of them, but he had these bobble heads. He's like, do you want them? Like, uh, I guess so, like I brought the shack and Tim Brown one, but I have at home, like I have a Kobe one. I have random Raptors, players that you probably wouldn't even know. Zonta back. No, no, oliver Miller. 

15:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm sure Rob knows them. I have Muggsy. 

15:54 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Bogues, of course, muggsy Bogues. I'm not including knowledge? Do? 

16:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you know it or no, I don't know. You know, I'll try to find out what they were. Players I'll try to find. If he sends me a picture. 

16:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll tell you who the ball hit for zach's era. 

16:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's probably gonna be like it's guys you'll never know like morris peterson damon stoudemire no no, I know those morris peterson. 

16:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh all, we're going to get into this episode. Before we do, I just want to mention one more thing. I'm not going to pull up a list and butcher all the details or whatever, but a friend of mine a friend of ours, I would say, preston Johnson, acquired an English football team, football soccer team, a few years back with a bunch of crypto bros who made some money off of nfts uh, crawley town, and he went in there and he took an absolute beating from the fans of crawley town. Get this american out of here, fix our team. There was a ton of turmoil with the like. A bunch of coaches got fired and resigned. There was one point where they only had one coach on a bench. Preston had to fly from California to England for one of the games to watch, to be on the sidelines, which didn't go over well with the fan base. But you know, what's going over well with the fan base now is promotion. Congratulations, preston Crawley Town. Big success, some money in your pocket. You deserve it, you're a great guy. So they're going up, they've been promoted from League 2. For those that don't know, or maybe watched like Welcome to Wrexham with Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhaney's team, wrexham. They were in the same division. They're both going up next year, so that's huge Congratulations to everyone involved in that. 

17:45
I don't know what the ownership structure is. I'm kind of bitter. I'm not in on it. I'll be completely honest with you. But uh, regardless is nice. I know rufus uh p body attended. There's like a picture of them hugging it out at the final whistle. I kind of got like a little bit emotional watching that. So congratulations to uh preston for that. Uh, I'd love to actually have him on as well. Just to tell the whole story about that Crawley. 

18:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Town, crawley Town, next stop EPL. 

18:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I think there's one more in between. I think they're League One now, my bad, my bad, and then there will be the championship. 

18:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But they're going to get there. 

18:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean. 

18:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I hope so, tony Bloom's got an EPL team. 

18:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I hope so, tony Bloom's got an EPL team. 

18:23
Second greatest, better of all time, preston Johnson, you'll be there with Tony Bloom one day. Right, there you go. All right, shifting gears here now. This is a guest episode. I've been looking forward to this one for a while Previously because of some comments that were made about this guest on a previous episode of Circles Off, but someone who I've interacted with for many, many years on Twitter. Let's get right into it. Our guest this week here on Circles Off is a sports bettor who specializes in WNBA betting. He was once called one of the worst follows on gambling Twitter. We'll get to that over the course of this interview. You can follow him on Twitter at Bartlett157. Alex Bartlett joins us here on Circles Off. Alex, how are things? 

19:09 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Things are good, Rob. Appreciate you guys for having me. 

19:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you were actually requested by some fellow Circles Off listeners, subscribers, followers. By the way, if you're not subscribed, make sure you subscribe. 

19:21 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
But yeah, I don't know, you had like a confused look that someone would have requested I well, I mean, I is a is a proud member of the worst gambling twitter follows. I'm surprised, it's honestly surprised, that anybody would, but uh oh alex, that's a stellar setup. 

19:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You have uh behind you there. Where are you calling in from? 

19:39 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
uh well, no, no, joking. My basement, uh, that's that's where the office setup is. It is my basement, it's not my mother's basement, so just get that straight. But yeah, I don't know, I live in the basement, that's where the setup is. 

19:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Nice. I was more referring to where are you located, like within the US? 

19:58 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Oh, I'm in the Madison Wisconsin area, south central Wisconsin. 

20:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so we'll get right into it. Um, you've been on gambling Twitter for a while, even from when I first started. You know I always see you asking questions, things like that Sometimes. I'll read the timeline. Uh, tell us a bit about basically your background, how you got into sports betting. 

20:19 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah, so I, unlike most of your guests, I have uh zero family or friend connections to gambling at all, like none. My family didn't even play cards at family get-togethers. My parents and I watch the Packers games on Sundays, but my dad isn't a huge diehard sports fan. My connection kind of came through Twitter. 

20:50
Uh, growing up in elementary school or in middle school or whatever, uh, the way that they taught statistics to us was through uh tracking and like calculating baseball statistics. Uh, and that was like really the first time that uh math made sense to me. Um, and then, moving forward, I saw I don't want to name the guy because he's still on Twitter but came across an ESPN post with a tout going on about how I think it was like a lower seed in college basketball. You know they called it an upset that they won and he's like it wasn't an upset that they were favored. Like well, how does that make any sense? I started digging into that that, learned about sports betting from there and realized that there was probably a way that you could apply math and stats to that. 

21:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so yeah, it's a really interesting story. It's it's very rare, but usually when we do ask that question, like you pointed out, alex, most people have had some sort of other introduction to sports betting, whether that's through someone that they know, uh, or just like a huge sports fan. Uh came across it at an early age, so that's a little bit different. Now, when I first interacted with you on Twitter, I can't pinpoint exactly what it was, but it was a long time ago. I've known you through Twitter for a long time, um, and you were, uh, I'll call it for what it is a very casual better for a large majority of our interactions. 

22:10
You used to ask me some questions. If you probably went back and looked at your timeline from like seven or eight years ago, you might even be embarrassed at some of the things that you posted at that time. Like I am personally maybe not, I don't want to speak on your behalf but what was the turning point for you that made you transition from like that casual better to sharp, better? Was it a long journey? Did something just click for you at some point where there are some key moments or realizations? If you could just walk us through that, I'd find that interesting. 

22:38 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah. So I think one of my strong suits is that I'm smart enough to know that I'm not very smart. Strong suits is that I'm smart enough to know that I'm not very smart. I think being able to filter through bullshit is something that I'm pretty good at. So I have kind of a funny story, rob when you were posting your super contest picks I think it was and you were going about 500 and you were touting yourself as a pretty good NFL gambler. 

23:01
I thought you were an idiot and it wasn't until Frank, frank Brank, reached out and he's like, you know, there's like game theory behind this and like there's a reason he's picking these. Like, instead of assuming Frank was also an idiot, I was like, oh, maybe this guy knows something, maybe I should actually pay attention. So I think, just, you know, slowly over time, realizing what counts accounts were full of shit and, and what people actually knew that they were talking about, um, and I think that there's there's a lot of old, uh, a lot of gatekeeping that happens in the older generation of gambling, twitter, um, and, and for good reason, um, but being able to pick out the stuff in their tweets, I think was was kind of what. What did it for me? Um, you know, I, I tried the, I tried the whole parlay everything together and you're going to become a millionaire, and it just didn't work. 

23:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, so, yeah, so I was just going to ask what are you doing right now for betting Um like, are you full-time or are you part-time? What stuff you betted? 

24:00 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Uh, I think I would label myself as a semi-professional. I, I, I would label myself as semi-professional. I don't know, I hate that term. I'm not a professional. I have a full-time job. I've always had a full-time job. I do think that that's one of the things that has actually allowed me to get better is because I'm not relying on the sports betting for income. It allows me to take some chances that I probably wouldn't feel comfortable taking otherwise. So, rec plus probably semi-professional, it's yeah. 

24:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And then, what stuff are you doing right now? Are you originating, is it? You know? Obviously, rob, we mentioned you're betting WNBA. I know you've been tweeting about that a lot, but what is it that you're actually betting right now? 

24:42 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Originating mostly women's basketball a lot. But what is it that you're actually betting right now? Uh, originating mostly women's basketball. Uh, wmba stuff, um, not women's, but uh, some foreign men's league stuff. Uh, throwing in some some fun things every now and again, uh, women's euro league. You actually can can bet a little bit on women's league. Um, I don't know whatever was doing, ah, for a while, pretty much whatever seems like fun at the time I'll try and dive into. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it fails miserably. But again, I think that kind of goes back to the not necessarily relying on it to pay the bills. I can take those chances of failing miserably. 

25:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Did you say AHL, as in American Hockey League? Oh yeah, oh yeah. Do you ever do WNCAA? 

25:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you say AHL, as in American Hockey League? Oh yeah, oh yeah Do you ever do WNCAA? 

25:30 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yep, I'll do that. 

25:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So okay, I guess what. I'll ask what sparked your interest in this? Was it that you had an edge, or were you just you said whatever seems fun at the time? Were you actually just interested in like women's ball? 

25:45 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
So I've always been a fan of the women's uh, women's basketball, especially the college game. Um, I think the, the women's college basketball, is quite a bit better than the wmba. It's more fun, uh, it's a bit more fluid, uh, a little bit, yeah, I don't know, I just find that more fun, uh. So I was a fan of that. I saw that that was offered on the betting menu and started to dig in, and then from there I heard a lot of the old tropes about how the WNBA was soft. You know, money prints are easy to beat and a couple of years ago it was. I don't know if that's entirely true anymore, but figured that following, you know, women's college basketball would give me a bit of an advantage, based based on knowing players coming in and um, kind of their styles and how I thought that they would mesh with other future teammates. 

26:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So yeah, so I I guess. Uh, there's a lot that I wanted to ask you about in regards to wnba, but first and foremost, um, I know some wnba bettors, but they started with men's basketball. Whether that be the NBA, college basketball. From your perspective, how different is the women's game compared to the men's game? Like if someone took a WNBA model and tried to apply it to NBA, call it men's college, maybe even women's college basketball, like just another league doesn't have to be men's or women's. Could they have success in any capacity? Like, is there a lot of overlap between these sports or are they fundamentally different from one another? 

27:15 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
I mean, at the end of the day, I think it's all basketball. It's not terribly hard to, I don't know, get 75, 80% of the way out there on making a number. It's just, you know, offensive rating, defensive rating, number of possessions in a game, and if you're doing player level stuff, projecting out minutes, so there's probably some overlap there. I mean, obviously there's more that goes into it than that. I don't know too much about the NBA, but I know that there are tons and tons of advanced metrics out there on individual players impacts Darko, and I can't think of some of the other ones off the top of my head but the WNBA doesn't really have quite that same level of individualized Hello, this is my cat doesn't have quite the same level of individualized player impact ratings. So that gets a little more tricky. So you're spending a lot more time trying to figure out and quantify a player's impact to team offensive and defensive, offensive and defensive rating Some of its art, some of its science. So I think it's similar but probably different at the same time. 

28:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, can you walk us through a little bit of that process then, because you say some of its art, some of its science, right? What is your typical process for analyzing a WNBA game Like? Are you modeling the games? Is there a handicapping element in some form? Basically, how are you arriving at a bet on a WNBA game? 

28:50 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah, so I do mostly player-level modeling stuff. I mean, that's how I come up with my number From there. I will. I've put together oh you are Sorry about that, I've put together quite a Twitter list over the years of beat writers, team, not necessarily team faculty, but even like fans of teams. There are people that have season tickets for the WNBA that will. 

29:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, there's not. Yeah, just kidding. 

29:24 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
I talked to some of them and they'll I mean like they're there, they're at the games, they see how people are moving. If there's you know somebody coming back from an injury, they're going to see if they look like they're moving right or not, and sometimes they'll tweet stuff like that out. I think an advantage of the WNBA is that you know the injury information. There's less aggregators In fact, I don't really know if there are any injury aggregators. There's also less ties into the agents. So you're getting a lot more stuff directly from very small beat reporters with, I mean, sometimes even a couple hundred people following them. So putting together Twitter lists with people like that and then it's seeing what they're saying. You know, is somebody somebody tired, is somebody injured? They might not be on the injury report, but they might not be moving great. So that's kind of where the art of it comes in. Is is trying to figure out, you know what impact that might have to them, to the game how long have you been betting w nba now? 

30:30
six or seven years, uh, just before the pandemic, a couple years before the pandemic all right. 

30:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So so most major sports, uh, and apologies like if I'm not calling w nba a major sport for people, but it's not, it's not, it's not relative to others right now, but most major sports have seen, like, um, some pretty significant leaps in data over the course of years, right like baseball went to stat cast and, uh, you know, exit velocity and all sorts of stuff. That is actually crazy. Now even I'm not a huge baseball fan anymore. I look at some of the data. I find it overwhelming. Uh, pretty much every sport has gone this path. For wnba, how? What does the data evolution look like there? Like you mentioned, it's not on par with the men's game right now and a lot of the bigger metrics that are used in the nba. But has there been an evolution or is it still, you know, pretty flat? 

31:22 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
yeah, so there are. Uh, there are websites putting together um and compiling better. You know team advanced data, individual advanced data. You can find shot chart data. It's. It's hard to find there, there are a lot of errors in it, but it's a starting point. But all that stuff is relatively new within the last, at least as far as I'm aware. The shot chart data stuff is relatively new in the last, at least as far as I'm aware. The shot chart data stuff is relatively new in the last maybe three-ish years. 

31:54
And the individual you know easily being able to get a hold of, you know effective field goal percentage, offensive, you know rebound rates, assist rates, stuff like that Easily being able to get a hold of. That was probably I mean right about maybe the time that I started getting fairly serious into it. So it's, I mean it's. It's come a long ways, but it's certainly not you know it's. You could look up advanced NBA individual impact metrics and come up with a list of 20 of them and all of them are probably better than what the W has access to right now. 

32:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. So I'm interested in that because, again, I don't bet a lot of NBA, or at least I don't. I don't originate a lot of NBA, but when I was kind of you know, really into NBA was like box score plus minus BPM. And now you mentioned, like Darko, there's EPM as well, which is, you know, pretty highly used across the board. Like, what are the key metrics or statistics that you would consider most important to evaluating WNBA games? Now, I'm not asking you to model it out for us, but if you're a casual fan and you're looking to all of a sudden get into the sport, what were some key metrics that you would look at? 

33:04 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Well. So, like I said, I know it's maybe not the most exciting answer, but I feel like basketball modeling is relatively solved. It's. It's the four factors, how that plays into offensive rating and then defensive rating. What really changes, that is, is players being in and out. Stars in the WNBA are much more integrated into the offense than they are in the NBA. There's a lot less ISO game. So I I do think that the market tends to overreact to star players being out and likewise, I think maybe something that is factored, but not necessarily as much as that bigs and size really control defense and I think that's known in the men's game, but in the WNBA it's really a very big, outsized impact. 

34:00
Guards just can't I mean they don't have, as the games played below the rim, so they just don't have quite the same defensive impact. Uh, is a six, seven big who can get up and block a shot? Um, as far as metrics I'm looking at, I mean, uh, you know, effective field goal percentage, you still want teams taking layups and shooting threes and free throws. Um, you still want a point guard who can facilitate and set up passes. Uh, yeah, I mean it's, it's. There's not necessarily a lot of individual wmba work out there, but there's a lot of basketball work and you can read plenty of papers on that. Uh, and take that as a good starting point and and adapt from there yeah, so just on on that front as well. 

34:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
uh, the men's game obviously has evolved quite a bit from when I was a teenager watching basketball to where it is now Like no mid-range stuff anymore. It's either down low or three-point shots. Have those same evolutions happened in the women's game, like are there specific trends that you're noticing more over the last few years versus when you started betting, like six or seven years ago? 

35:10 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
yeah, I would say for sure. Um, it seems like that evolution is a bit slower to get to the w. I don't know if that is uh because the game is less athletic and less explosive do you think it's possible that that the t? 

35:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it's because the teams have less data to work with. 

35:31 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah, I mean that's a good thought. Again, it doesn't seem like it would take a rocket scientist to figure out that three is worth more than two, and the shorter the two, the more likely it is to go in. But again, we're talking about sports and people in sports, and there certainly aren't a ton of rocket scientists in sports. I do think that the mid-range game is a bit more valuable in women's basketball just due to the fact that there's it is a little bit less athletic, so you'll see a guard drive and they can create more separation from pulling up at that elbow location. Not a great shot. You see a lot of high volume players take it too much, um, but yes, they're, they're. Overall, I think that there's there's uh, particularly on the three-point side, there's been quite a push, uh, to get better at that, but from players yeah, there are some rocket scientists in sports. 

36:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Matt Patricia would be one. Somehow continues to get a job in the league, over and, over and over. 

36:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I do actually remember I used to bet WNBA a lot more. I do remember there was a time, basically probably about three years ago, maybe the first season back after COVID where there would be news coming out on players being out and stuff like that and the line wouldn't move for a good five to ten minutes on player news, including some key players and stuff like that. That would move at a couple points and at the time even NBA lines weren't moving very fast on injury news. But then, yeah, as everything kind of goes away, and then now more people like you, I guess, follow, make Twitter lists and stuff like like that. I'm sure it's not as quick, mark, it's not as quick to react, as you know, an nba injury, but how quick are we to react right now in a wmba? 

37:17 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
I think once, uh, once the big players get a hold of it, it moves pretty quickly. Um, there there are less uh aggregators in the space. So you know, there's not necessarily like a woge or a Shams who seems to have every piece of information the second that it's available. A lot of it is coming from smaller. You know, the Hartford Courant or whatever it is, is tweeting something out to their 700 followers and by the time you know, underdog gets a hold of that. You know, maybe it's slowly trickled into the market a little bit, but it takes longer to it takes longer for there to be a sizable impact in the market. But once the you know, once, like an underdog gets a hold of it, it's still going to move. I mean, it's not really any different than any other sport and you were talking a couple of years ago it seemed like player news wasn't happening. I don't know this for sure, but I think that there was a big group who was usually on top of that, whose scraper was broken for the better part of that year. 

38:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Technology issues man. Yeah, I keep up on that stuff. Yeah, I keep up on it. Yeah, just in regards to that. I mean, you mentioned that you're semi, semi pro or rec plus and you hold a full-time job. Um, are you able to keep up with that news over the course of the day? Is there like a a specific news cycle where you you sort of see news starts to filter in at a certain time of day? How do you balance your day around that? 

38:42 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
yeah, so, I'm uh, I get up at five every day to to do a lot of the betting stuff before I ever have to leave for work. I I'll peruse again the Twitter list that I've curated. I'll peruse that a lot of times. You'll see from games before that there's a suggestion that a player might not play. That stuff isn't always day of game, but otherwise, yeah, I, I have access to my phone. It's. I've got notifications set up when it, when it goes off, I'm usually a few minutes behind, but not far enough behind. That it's. It's a huge issue. That's not to say that I've never I've never missed a play, but it's, it's something that you you learn to work with. The company that I work for is aware that I bet. I don't know if they know how much of that I'm doing at work, but nobody's said anything. Otherwise the work gets done. 

39:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep. 

39:39 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
I get it totally. 

39:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're into late May now and the season's been going for a little bit of time. But prior to the season, uh and I'm going through your twitter timeline right now unabated put out a tweet. Um, that was, uh, basically like a primer for wnba. Uh, you quote, tweeted that and you said to take the article with a grain of salt because there were some old, outdated, outdated, cliche takes in it. Do you care to expand on that? Like, what specifically that people say about the WNBA now, from a betting perspective, might be old and cliche and outdated. 

40:21 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah. So I think that the idea that back in the day the NBA was like this cash cow and money printer, I think that that was probably true, and probably true up until recently. And if you have an edge, I mean there's still money to be made. I think where people lose a little bit of sight there is that there are a lot of professional basketball bettors. That's what they do. I mean you talked about how the sport translates across genders and across levels and whatever. 

40:52
There are a lot of people out there that just bet basketball. That's their thing. Every league, every level. And in the summer there's nothing going on except for the W. So there are a lot of high level basketball bettors that are operating in the W. It's the only league. It's what they do. It's how they make money over the summer. 

41:11
So the idea that it's just a bunch of slappies and they're betting their same-game parlays on Kaitlin Clark is, I think that again, I think that that trope is a bit outdated. And to say that there isn't liquidity, I mean, again, it's not the NBA, it's not the MLB, it's not probably even college basketball, but of the three major offshores right now, you could go through and click and get 10 grand in three different sites, and then he goes on to talk about some prop stuff that I don't necessarily have an opinion on. I do think that those will probably become more available. Maybe Johnny would know more about that than I would, but it seems like, as the casuals get more into the WNBA, that that's something that would be more available. 

42:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, actually, wnba props are available. They're pretty easy to beat right now. Actually, lines are all over the place pretty well moving. The problem with wmba props is just the uh like the stake factor limiting on the on the books right now. 

42:13
Um, I talked about this with the prop market before on how like it actually helps keep your accounts alive a little bit longer versus, you know, betting an nfl prop, for example, versus betting like college basketball total, which I still back behind and, as of right now, is 100% true. Still, if we really think about this from that perspective, it's like who is actually betting a WNBA player prop, like it's likely not a recreational, better, it's someone who's angle shooting. And then, in addition to that, it's like who's betting a WNBA player prop under 19.5 points, close to 16.5 points? It's very obvious to see that that player is going to win, whereas when you look at like nba, go, go around twitter, go around twitter there's tons of guys posting nba player prop picks that are just straight trash and gonna lose and they're betting those and their followers are betting those. They're betting yokich, triple, double, like it's way harder to blend in yeah, I it. 

43:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's got to change over time, though, right Like, as the WNBA grows in popularity, you're going to get more casuals are betting this stuff. 

43:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But as of right now. Like think about it realistically, who's betting WNBA player? Props Like we don't even know, players Like no one. No one even knows half these players. 

43:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If I was a trader, I'd auto ban. 

43:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'd auto limit anyone. Autolimit anyone If I was trying to limit. 

43:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Not autolimit, but okay, listen, my WNBA knowledge is next to nothing. I'm sorry I don't watch a lot of sports anymore, like I focus on football and hockey. That's kind of my thing. Everything else I just kind of know what's going on. I know who Caitlin Clark is. I know like I can't name many WNBA players. Name even three more uh, angel reese is now. Is she in the? 

43:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
wmba. 

43:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
She got drafted still in college, yeah she got drafted this year and, uh, that's it, that's, that's so I've I've maxed out at two. 

43:54
You know that you guys know sue bird she's not in the w anymore, retired she's not now, you're canceled am I canceled wow so there you go, okay, but but my, my point is, if I was a trader, right, and I saw like somebody betting Caitlin Clark props, I'd probably be like, okay, they're probably, like you know, more of a casual, but if I saw some players that I had no idea who they were. 

44:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Which is every player in the league except for those two you mentioned. 

44:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But that's what I mean. 

44:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Obviously maybe there's a couple more Obviously, like Brittany Griner or whatever. 

44:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know a couple more, there we go. That's another. 

44:26
yeah, listen, I like this is not going well for me right now, but my point is that if, um, if I was like a um, somebody who was trading for a sports book, and I saw NBA props coming in, you're more likely to give the benefit of the doubt on maybe like a secondary player, because they're more of a household name. And this again I'm not. I don't mean to disrespect or disparage the WNBA. I have no issues with that like whatsoever. I'm just saying that the likelihood that you're going to get a pro betting secondary WNBA props relative to a casual, I think, is much higher. There's a much higher ratio there than in the NBA. That's kind of what I'm getting at. 

45:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and I did actually catch some flack for saying that like player props help actually keep the accounts alive. But it's just, it's not necessarily player props, it's just look at what all of these rec guys right now in the content space are posting pics of. Like during nba, during nfl. Like the guys are betting, like tyree kill through to get three and a half over catches or over six and a half catches, stuff like that. Like they're actually betting that and giving that out, even though it's not necessarily like sharp play. So if you can find edges there, it's, it blends right in and sure You're not just going to be able to fire player props and win at a high scale forever without your account getting cut. That's not what I was saying, but for the most part it should increase the longevity. 

45:46 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
I think it's an interesting conversation on the market dynamics. I mean, a couple of years ago people would see player props going into accounts and it would be almost an auto limit. But now, like the popularity of the SGP stuff which I don't know, makes me sick to my stomach, but it's a different conversation I'm not surprised that traders seeing some accounts getting filled with player props. They don't even bat an eye at it anymore. It's just a dude donking off some player props watching the game with his friends Plus a lot of these guys play fantasy, basketball, fantasy football, stuff like that. 

46:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't, it's a yeah plus. A lot of these guys play fantasy, basketball, fantasy football, stuff like that. Like they don't even care to bet. Like obviously we know a lot of the stats have come out now but like the game total, for example, is significantly less popular than what would be the top prop for the game by a mile. So, for example, like even non-popular players are getting more action than like a tony pollard rushing prop would have more bet count than like the total of the game on a lot of these rec books. So if you factor that in, it's like, especially with wmba, like who's betting the wmba total? 

46:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, a lot of sharps. I would say so right now, like as there's more tv deals now I see more games on tv than I ever would have before and at some point, like the dynamic is going to change, exactly like you mentioned, alex. Like 10 years from now it's a completely different conversation, in all likelihood, but right now, as it stands, I would, I would totally agree with you, totally agree with you. Um, yeah, just like on the on the dynamic front. Sorry to steal the show here, um, but like, uh, I used to run prediction machine for one year, right. 

47:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He also consulted for sports books. 

47:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I did not say that I did not say that. But I ran prediction machine for one year and the first thing I did when I went in there is like just a general audit of the business. And one of it, uh, one of the things that prediction machine used to do was when they ran a simulation on the game they'd post. You could click into the game and you would see the box score of that specific game. And no one is clicking these box scores. So I'm like, well, why are we taking like the extra time to post all these when they get like 20 clicks a day? So I said we're gonna not do this anymore. Someone who currently is a big time trader for an offshore sports book DMs me and says, hey, like what happened to these box scores? I'm like, yeah, we're not gonna run them anymore. No one ever clicks. And he's like I use them to trade player props for the game. And like that was I don't know what seven years ago. Now. It's like totally unthinkable. 

48:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like there was there was so little volume on player props for like an nba game or even an nfl game that there was a trader that was like using the prediction machine number as the standard for trading a game which it's, it's like hilarious I do think a lot of that is because the draft kings and fanduel which are the two two biggest right now started as dfs shops, which was all like player-based stuff, and then that transitioned in the sports book and they were more willing to take like player props and stuff like that. Prior to that, like prior to 2017, and I was betting like you could maybe fire some stuff onto, like bodog bavada would have some player props, maybe some PPH, but it wasn't like largely accepted that every book had player props, like some wouldn't even carry them. Yeah, now every book's carrying props. 

49:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Has to carry the props. Um, I, I reached out to a friend of the show, kirk Evans, to let him know that you were coming on. He's like Alex, great guy. I, I'm like you know him, like you've done stuff with him. He's like, no, I just like his twitter account. He keeps it real. I'm like, all right. Um, he told me to ask you and he's very interested in, uh, the clv conversation around wnba. Do you consider closing line value less important in wnba, considering how much, um less liquid it is than you know relative to major markets? 

49:43 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah, so it's been a few years since I've really done the work I mean. It still matters. It might not be as directly correlated to the final result, as you know NBA or major college basketball but historically, you know, the move tends to be the correct move um I I think, uh, it's less liquid. 

50:09
But again, with the volume of uh sharp people that are in the market, I think that, uh, yeah, it still holds merit. I mean, I'd still rather get the best of the number than not. I would still rather see my bet close two points better than not. Um, yeah, I don't know what the. I don't know how accurate it is now compared to five years ago or three years ago or whatever, but it's uh. I don't see it getting any less efficient, that's for sure I, I actually just had that. 

50:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's funny you asked I didn't even know you're gonna ask that. I just had that analysis run for a couple sports, including wmba. Uh, it's obviously just been quick. Right now. We ran like last year and the start of this year. It was actually more efficient, close than um last year's and then like this current season's nba offset's a little bit of variance as well. Yeah, but it's, it's going to be efficient. Obviously I don't. I'm not saying okay, now I gotta back up here. I'm not saying that the wmba at those limits is more efficient than the nba at those limits. 

51:09
I'm saying like over a one-year sample size, yeah uh what I draw from that conclusion is that for people who are asking like, oh, are these lines sharp? Like can I, if I get two points clv, am I gonna win? Like, the answer is yes, I do believe you're gonna win. Um, but obviously there's. I mean, even when people ask clv, even in the comments here on twitter and stuff, people like, oh well, technically this could be in this, on a one, on one game, sure, anything can happen. Like there's fakes, there's this, this happens, whatever. But when you, when you run the whole season and calculate it like the clv wins versus no clv, so sure, on a one game sample, obviously anything can happen, but for the most part it's gonna win. 

51:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do, you're never gonna be able to dodge the clvs like. We still get comments on our channel all the time of like oh I, you know I I've got 80 clv. Last week and I got took a beating. Like, clv doesn't matter anymore, people just have sample size issues stay tuned for my plus cv move of the week. Actually, I wrote it down yesterday um alex um on the topic of caitlin clark entering uh, here we go pazola no, it's important because I actually want to know how this has affected wnba betting this year. 

52:17
Like, is there is there a noticeable difference at the start of this season around the WNBA from a betting landscape? And also, like, what would you project going forward? Like, how big can the WNBA get in upcoming years from a betting perspective? 

52:34 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah. So I don't know. I don't necessarily know if I've directly seen a Kaitlyn Clark effect. I don't necessarily know if I've directly seen a Caitlin Clark effect. She has clearly brought a very large casual fan base into the sport. I actually went and looked it up. League-wide attendance is up 32% this year from last year. I mean, I know it's early, but the buzz around this rookie class Hur, angel, reese, cam Brink, all of them it's already having a noticeable effect on the league. Whether that translates to betting, I don't know. Again, I would suspect that with new eyeballs and new fans you're going to get new bettors. That just seems like common sense to me. And to circle back on the prop stuff, I would think that there would be a wider array, a wider menu array of prop stuff because of that moving forward. 

53:34
It's I, I. I think that history has shown that the, the sport, has fans. It's just how well it's marketed and how accessible it is to fans. So I suspect that the betting aspect would be the same too. 

53:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So on the Caitlin Clark front, you mentioned that it's brought in a lot of casual fans into the league and I see this a lot on my timeline, people debating her merits and where she ranks within the league right now. And I'm just curious, from an actual WNBA better, where do you rank her relative, like we don't have to go to a specific spot, but where do you rank her amongst the other players in the WNBA currently and future? Looking, where do you see her career going? Because there's a very wide range of opinions on caitlyn clark also who's the best player in wmba uh, best player would probably be brianna stewart, maybe asia wilson. 

54:35 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Um, I think stewart's game is a bit more versatile, uh, but it's it's 1a, 1b. Uh. Clark, I think, is probably somewhere around the 20s in current form. Um, she's already an elite passer. Uh, probably the second or third best pure point guard in the nba already. 

54:57
Um, usage numbers are kind of insane. Um, she's getting usage numbers that you don't see all-time great wmba players getting um and currently her offensive offensive efficiency just isn't quite there yet. Um, it's going to come along, I have no doubt in that. But it's going to come along, I have no doubt in that. But it's going to take her a while to adapt to the physicality and just the defense in general in the W. I mean, she's not playing, you know Northwestern anymore. She's, she's playing, she's playing in the bigs. 

55:34
Now, as far as where I think she ends up, I would be shocked if she doesn't end up as, like a perennial top five player, maybe even by the end of the year. Um, I, I think that her game translates really well. Uh, I've been been a little critical of her uh on Twitter, but that's not to say that I dislike her. I just I I wish the usage numbers would come down just a hair. Uh, I think if the usage numbers came down, her efficiency would probably go up a hair and that would make her team better, and I'm so. 

56:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually don't know the answer to this, but when you do go at Caitlin Clark on Twitter, do you get a lot of flack, Like are there a lot yeah? 

56:18 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Oh yeah, it's. There's a there's stance. There's Caitlin Clark stands to even have a conversation about if she's the best women's college basketball player of all time. Is is blasphemy. There's there's Iowa fans all over Twitter that are suggesting that the fever need to be blown up and that last year's number one overall pick, who had like an historic rookie season in Aaliyah Boston, is complete trash and she needs to be traded and shipped out of town. And it's uh. Kaitlyn can do do no wrong and that's uh. That's just the reality I think that we all need to accept and it's never going to change. 

56:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So uh, one of the beauties of Twitter. Um yeah, really tough to post an opinion on anything nowadays. Uh, we're talking to Alex Bartlett here on Circles Off. If you made it this far, excuse me, and you haven't smashed that like button, please do so. Smash that like button down below. If you're not subbed here on Circles Off, make sure you do that If you're listening in podcast form. Please rate and review five stars. 

57:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Also, I personally want to apologize for the Caitlin Clark discussion. 

57:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I didn't want to apologize for the caitlin clark discussion. I didn't want to pull you guys through that rob, put it on the sheet. 

57:28 - Joey Knish (Caller)
I try to get it out, um, but he's like no, no, we're gonna put it in, it's gonna be genuinely interesting I said all right, buddy, you know it's your call put it in. 

57:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's a huge story, right? But to those out here, like, I apologize, I got you um, you know you're a real one. Appreciate you sticking through. 

57:39
Like and subscribe, subscribe, anyways, we're going to go on to basically wanting to get into some betting challenges here that you face. I know obviously Rob mentioned you came up from what was presumably someone who didn't really know anything about sharp betting and now got to a certain point where you can, you know, win as a side job right now. What were some of the like you know, early challenges that you needed to overcome? 

58:06 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
back in the day to actually get to this point, uh, the biggest one for me uh, easily. Um, I mean, once you start winning, uh comes more money with that. I mean, how do you get the money in and out of the books? Uh, how do you move around large sums of money, um, having to have cash on hand to settle up with people? All that stuff was completely foreign to me. I mean, it kind of goes hand in hand. I mean, the first time you get limited is pretty shocking, you know, realizing that you've burned what is a good out for you. And then how do you get that money out of there, uh, especially when the first time I ever deposited into, uh an unknown offshore sports book that no longer exists, um, was through amazon gift cards. So then how do you get that money back out? 

58:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
might rhyme with five crimes. 

58:55 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Uh yeah, tony tony book, um, uh, but then on top of that, I mean like, uh, you know it's been a widely discussed conversation on here, but you know getting more accounts going to friends and family. Again, as somebody who doesn't have friends or family in the gambling space, you know trying to convince my parents and that I'm not going to be whacked by the mob and that I'm not going to be whacked by the mob if they sign up and have to give a driver's license to somebody was honestly one of the biggest hurdles. 

59:28
And I think that there's still an outside chance that my mother thinks that I'm going to get kneecapped by Tony down at the local deli or something. But yeah, I don't know, it's different eras I suppose. But yeah, I mean, those honestly were the two biggest hurdles getting into it. The scaling stuff comes with time, it's not? I don't? You can hear people talk about it, but I think everybody's journey to scaling up is a little bit different, did you? 

01:00:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
utilize partners in scaling up. 

01:00:07 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah. So I mean I had some friends and family. I never really went outside of that circle. The account getting thing is just not my. Again, I know what I'm good at. I know what I'm not good at. That's not my forte. I'm good at. I know what I'm not good at. That's not my. That's not my forte. Schmoozing people, asking them if they've got paper heads that's not my. Yeah, that's not my strength. Getting hooked up with people who do that, I'll leave that for leave that for the people that are good at that. 

01:00:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So Fair enough. Speaking of challenges and overcoming them, you were once called, quote unquote, one of the worst follows on gambling Twitter. For those who don't know what I'm referring to, here's the clip. 

01:00:50 - Joey Knish (Caller)
The next one here. I'm going to put this guy in the what I would call the AMOC category, except he doesn't work for the athletic or put out any debt. His tweets are just like and we both know this guy smart guy, has an edge betting, but his Twitter is just like watching the grass grow, like it's Alex Bartlett. 

01:01:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, and the floor is yours now, alex, to respond to that criticism. 

01:01:19 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah, so I, I I mean to be to be called that by a guy that literally can't sit up straight on his own couch for a for an hour and a half long interview. Uh, is is pretty priceless, uh, but I think the thing that that Kanishk forgets about uh, I mean, he's not wrong, in fairness, but the thing that he uh is forgetting is that he needs to play court jester to get access to accounts. I mean, he needs to be. Look at me, uh, you know, that's, that's his, that's what he's good at. Uh, me, for me, on the other hand, I I could I get to yell into the ether about whatever I want. I don't, uh, I mean he's not wrong why there's 3 000 people following me. I don't know, uh, I mean I am. I, I am one of the self-proclaimed or not even self-proclaimed, uh, one of the worst, worst accounts on gambling Twitter. But I, I've earned that right to be. Um, he gets to, he gets to put on his clown mask and entertain people. It's uh, it's two different ways of life. 

01:02:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
In all seriousness, um, do you have a personal relationship with Kanishk? Because it seemed like I actually don't know, but it seemed like he has some sort of connection to you, based off of the way that he. 

01:02:26 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah, so him and I are friendly. Um, he was actually the first person to really give me a shot in the space. Um, he reached out to me for the original round of XFL. Uh, so I was sending him XFL stuff before that got shut down for the pandemic, um, and then through him I've gotten set up with some other people. Um, so, yeah, I mean we're friendly. We were still in group chats. We talk it's it's all, it's all uh, all in good fun. Uh, the way I look at it is he's one of those people If, if he's not poking you in the ribs, he probably doesn't, probably doesn't like you that much. 

01:03:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And even if he does or doesn't like you, who cares? Yeah, exactly. So we have a couple more questions here, more on the lighter stuff, actually. You know what One thing Rob had on here I am interested in is what are your future goals within the betting space right here? Are you ever hoping to make this a full-time thing? I like to ask that to people who are earning money but not yet professional. 

01:03:27 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Is it in the cards For me? Probably not. The money is there to make it a full-time thing, but again, I have good benefits through work. I have an understanding with them, they know what I do. I'm not wasting their time, but they're aware of it, and the money allows me to take chances that I wouldn't otherwise feel comfortable taking. 

01:03:55
I'm not necessarily a risk averse person, but I wouldn't want to go out and stake real money on something that, if I did or didn't know, I had an edge on if the mortgage payment had to come out of that money too. So I don't think that I would ever go full time. As far as what I'm hoping it turns into, I don't really know. To be totally honest, the money is all going into other investments at this point um, crypto, um, some other stock stuff. Uh, so it's, it's working for itself. Um, I, I still, I still enjoy finding other small things to bet on. Um, yeah, so I honestly I think that's uh, as more fun, small fun leagues come into play, I think that I'll probably keep trucking along on those, and it keeps me entertained, so Fair enough. 

01:04:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Everyone has their own goals. 

01:04:55 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Before we get into our final questions, any emerging trends or developments in sports betting that you find particularly, either exciting or concerning potentially going forward yeah, so I, uh, I think I'm in kind of the same boat with you, rob, where I see a lot of the uh tick, tock, tout stuff and I I find that uh alarming and disingenuous. Um, the SGPs, uh, the amount of money that these guys are either actually betting on them or pretending to bet on them, um, I think is is going down a wrong path. Uh, I, it is possible to build a bankroll, um from nothing. I mean, that's what I did. I started off with $500. Um, and my goal was to basically make a couple, a couple, extra a hundred bucks a year to take a vacation with. Um, so you can, uh, oh, great, the cat's killing each other. 

01:05:56
Hold on, sorry about that all right yeah, so start off with a small bankroll and I mean, you can build that into something. Um, you know, I don't, I don't think that, uh, I don't think that the get rich quick scheme stuff is, uh is good, but there's nothing you can do about it. I mean that that's, that's the way the industry is going. Um, I know there are edges in the sgp thing. So you know, uh, people can, uh people can put those to work. Um, but yeah, I I'm not, uh not super excited about that. 

01:06:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean to be clear on my end. I don't actually have a problem with people producing like SGP content. I have people. I have a problem with people who produce SGB content like they are Billy Walters and, like you know, guaranteeing people are gonna win and using like it's the deception that bothers me right, like someone wants to make a TikTok video of their SGP for the night and they're like here I'm just throwing darts and, like you know, I'm doing this to have fun. I honestly don't have an issue with that. It is a high-hold bet type. People should know that going into it. But it's the ones that are, you know, like Zach's favorite guy who's sitting in his Jeep, rubicon, you know, wearing a fake watch in the passenger seat, by the way, not in the driver's seat. 

01:07:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How do you know that was a fake watch and that kid, for all we know, is making bank? We don't know that. I know but it's sad that that's the route we were chirping him for, like his promo, but technically he didn't really mention anything about betting for us to know if he was winning or losing. He didn't really mention anything about betting for us to know if he was winning or losing. 

01:07:42 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
I think maybe the disconnect for me too is that I don't. I mean, I know a lot of the entertainment value for people comes in in sweating the bets and doing it with friends, and SGPs are a really good way to do that. I don't. I mean, I don't consider myself a gambler per se, Like I don't. I don't enjoy sweating games. Games I don't. That's not fun for me. So the idea of putting together you know some, you know eight leg player to score the first basket parlay and sitting down and having a bunch of beers with the you know the guys on a friday night and sweating that, losing you know whatever, a couple hundred bucks, I just that that's. That's not me. So that's probably some biased opinion in there too yeah, fair enough. 

01:08:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, and you're entitled to that as well. Um, all right. Um, doesn't have to be sports betting related. Can be anything in life, totally up to you. Uh, one thing that you think is plus ev in life and one thing that you think is minus ev in life yeah. 

01:08:38 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
so the plus ev uh, I can't remember if anybody else has said this, I'm sure they have but is connecting with old friends. I'm not necessarily terribly. I'm busy and it's easy to lose track of people, especially if you're not seeing them regularly. I reached out to some friends we hadn't seen in a while and went and got dinner with them and had a blast, you know, catching up with them. So I'm trying to actively make an effort to reach out to people and reconnect. It takes zero effort to have a text conversation over the course of hours or even days. So the fact that you know I have a busy person, that shouldn't change that necessarily. So, and then the negative EV is gardening, it's that time of the year. 

01:09:29
The weather's getting nice every year. Every year I decide that I'm going to garden again. You know this is going to be the year I'm going to get out there in the spring. You know I like being outside and enjoy the weather. Outside, I'm going to enjoy the weather. 

01:09:45
You know I go to the store and I spend 200 bucks on dirt and fertilizer and plants and all this stuff, you know. Plant them in. You got to weed everything. You know. Water it. Go out there and water it and then I live the way that our neighborhood is set up. There's a house in front of us that feeds the squirrels and birds and there's a house behind us that feeds the squirrels and birds. There's a house behind us that feeds the squirrels and birds. So I am a rodent and bird highway. So then I'm spending the entire summer fighting birds and squirrels and rabbits out of the garden all to get some tomatoes and lettuce and cucumbers, and then be so tired of eating salad by by the time that the garden is all harvested that I never want to eat another salad again. So, bonus plus, ev, go to farmers markets and buy that produce. Let somebody else deal with all the headache. Uh, it's not worth the time. Don't garden. It's uh, it's for suckers there you go. 

01:10:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've never resonated more with uh, both the plus ev and the minus ev. Uh here, uh, gardening for me, I learned. I finally learned, after like probably five or six years, that it just wasn't going to happen. I will say though I did when I first moved to my place, which was seven years ago now, I did plant a raspberry bush, which was actually one of the best decisions I ever made. We get tons of raspberries, okay let's start. 

01:11:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's one of the best decisions he ever made in his life. 

01:11:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will retract that statement. I will retract that statement, but that is is fruitful every year um, you know fresh raspberries. 

01:11:14
no, like it grows like a weed. Basically you just kind of keep it enclosed to an area, perfect, but the rest of this like growing lettuce. I tried to do that because obviously I have tortellini, a tortoise. I'm like fuck, I got to buy this guy lettuce every week, berries and stuff, but that's horrible On your plus EV. 

01:11:32
I don't want to make this like super heavy, but I will just share like a personal experience of mine, so that really resonated with me. A lot of the stuff that Kanish has actually been posting to Twitter recently, just being like a little bit more open has really like rubbed off in me and helped me. I'm not like I'm kind of like going through a midlife crisis or have been, I would say not nothing bad. I'm not like super depressed, but just like lacking fulfillment in my life since football ended. Um, and one of the big things for me was reconnecting with old friends and um, that's like really got me back on track. Uh, a conversation I had with a, with a friend who I hadn't seen in a long time, where I kind of just basically shared this with him, um, kind of said that he went through the same a few years ago and one thing that really helped him was just getting out of his comfort zone and doing things that he typically wouldn't do. 

01:12:29
For any Seinfeld fans out there, there's an episode where George Costanza talks about how his instincts on everything are wrong. So if he does the opposite of everything he thinks he should do, he will be doing what he is right and he ends up with a great looking girl and like his life turns completely around. I've kind of been doing that. Honestly, I'm doing stuff that I've never done before and it's gone a long way. So I've just personally learned over the last couple of months if you, the reconnecting with friends is huge, but just getting outside of your comfort zone, I do a lot of hiking. Now I just came back from a fishing trip, which I don't even enjoy, but like kind of had a great time. I've done karaoke recently, um, so yeah, I mean yeah, that stuff matters. 

01:13:14 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
Yeah, I think, uh, it's honestly uh pretty admirable uh that he's sharing that stuff, because I think there's probably a lot of people in this space that that resonate with that. I don't, I mean, it kind of goes back to the emerging trend stuff Like betting at a high level is. Is not that entertaining? I mean, it's a lot of hours in front of a computer, it's a lot of sitting around and waiting for news, it's a lot of it's, it's, it's pretty echo chambery, um, and then it's stressful. I mean, like, again, that's, that's part of the reason that I don't know if I would ever want to do it full time is cause I, you know, I get to divorce the two, the needing the money and the wanting of the money, um, but if, if you're relying on that and you go through a downturn, I can, I can see where you would just be absolutely miserable. So, yeah, I mean, you know, having friends outside of that echo chamber, it's, it's, yeah, it matters. 

01:14:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I personally and again, don't want to make it too heavy. We'll move on. But like I don't get a ton of fulfillment from betting anymore, I used to five years ago, like I just wanted to make money. That was it. And like the more money I made like that, that drove me to keep doing it. And then I just got to a point where it I just don't get the fulfillment, like even on really good winning days. You'd obviously rather have that than really big losing days, but I don't get a rush from it. It's just doesn't matter to me. I thought like okay, golf season's around the corner, I'm gonna start golfing a bunch and like I'll get my. And it really didn't. 

01:14:45
And I've been finding a lot of fulfillment in doing things that I typically wouldn't do. 

01:14:51
And that's not for everyone, some people don't like it. 

01:14:53
But you know, my typical would be okay, I'm gonna bet, and when I'm not betting I'm gonna go down to the basement and I'm going to watch Netflix or something and I'm just like kind of going through a cycle and yeah, anyways, that really resonated with me about connecting with old friends, because it was actually conversations I had with other people who had been going through similar experiences and just kind of bonding over that doing new things. And, by the way, like I'm totally fine as a person, I'm just really just sharing my experiences and I would suggest that if you are like living through some sort of period of life where you're unhappy or whatever, it's okay to talk about it. And I don't give him credit enough, kanish, I don't actually wanna give him credit, but I will. It did kind of inspire me to like try to turn things around a little bit. So I'm sorry you're gonna have to follow that with your plus ev or minus I got a decent one for this week actually as long as it's not smoothie hut or whatever. 

01:15:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The hell, you're like what was that? 

01:15:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that's that was drinking all smoothies now, instead of coffee, he's promoting his local smoothie brand okay, I thought you guys were tripping one of my older ones the fact he didn't get a shirt or something. 

01:16:00 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
That would have made it funnier if he showed up to his next appearance like wearing a branded shirt or something. I wouldn't put it past him he would do. 

01:16:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He would do anything for a little amount of money. 

01:16:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know that because of what we pay him here so my uh, my plus ev, minus ev for the week uh is the game that we play, the game that we're all involved in, which is sports betting, is is just so variance, so variance heavy and, at the end of the day, I resonate with what bartlett's saying here and the fact of, like you know, relying on the money, needing it versus wanting it, because we don't work hours and get paid at the end of the day like other people might in certain industries. So my plus TV move of the week is when you are on a really good winning streak, do nothing, change nothing, do not get too excited, do not worry, it's going to pass, that 100% will pass, and do the exact same things that you were doing there, because eventually you will be on an equivalent or worse or better losing streak. And when you are on that losing streak, do nothing as well and don't let it get to you either way. The highs and the lows the best advice that I received in this space was that the money is made when you place the bet, meaning when you place the bet. If you placed a $100 bet on a 2%, edge you just by clicking that button, whether it was on your phone or your computer, whatever. That button click made you $2. And you're not going to receive $2 from that click. You're either going to be minus $100 or plus $100, whatever, but at the end of the day, that is how the game works. 

01:17:44
So you you cannot get too high on the lose on the winning streaks and you cannot get too low on the losing streaks, because it will actually eat you up alive, um, with that being said, I'm sure there's people out there that maybe, maybe it's right now that you need to hear it. Or maybe come back to this video when you are in a losing streak, but don't worry about it. Settle down, look back at what you're doing. Look at what you're doing, say am I doing the right things? Am I doing the same things I was doing when I was winning? Do I need to change anything? Optimize your process, but in no way should you be, should gambling be impacting your life, up or down? Remember, money is made when you, when you click the button, not when the game is being played. Yep. 

01:18:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's valid Good point. We'll end it off here. Alex, appreciate you joining here on Circles Off. If you could go back five years and talk to a previous version of yourself what advice would you give to your former self? 

01:18:40 - Alex Bartlett (Guest)
I think it would be to be more aggressive with known edges. You know you always hear about good bankroll management and that's obviously very, very important. If you have an edge that you know is a big edge, um, it's, it's a probably okay to over bet your bankroll. I would rather, personally, I'd rather go bust taking a chance, um, than feel like I've left money on the table, and there have been times I felt like I left money on the table. So again, if you know you've got a big edge, you might as well bet. 

01:19:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a very common. I don't think anyone's brought it up in like the final question before, but it's a very uh answer or like topic that comes up during interviews that we have from people. It's just like I wish I had had really went hard when I had this, but they're then as the con. 

01:19:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The contrarian of that is there's people who thought they had a big edge and went bust because of that. So in hindsight it's always easy to say, yeah, I should have gone harder on these edges. But unless you can but for the most part I do what you said If it's a known edge, sometimes it's okay to juice it because of the fact that it won't be there forever. If it's going to be there forever, then that's the proper bankroll management for it, it's the Kelly staking or whatever it is. Anyways, this has been episode number. Do you know it? Do you know? 

01:19:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
what episode it is. I'm waiting Since Number. Do you know what? Do you know what episode? 

01:20:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm waiting. No, since we stopped doing the numbers. I don't know Number 155. 

01:20:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can follow Alex on Twitter at Bartlett157. Or, as Joey Knish says, don't follow him on Twitter, just mute him, block him. Whatever you got to do, appreciate everyone who listened. Smash that like button down below. We'll catch everyone back here for Circles Off next week. 

01:20:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Appreciate y'all for Circles Off next week. Appreciate y'all, see ya.