00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
there is also a copa america happening, uh, at the same time, which is going to feature north american squads again um, including canada, and it's being played in the us. 

00:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Pause please, yep no way, no way. The canada jersey, the triple, come on let's go. 

00:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to circles off, episode number 158 right here. Part of the hammer betting network and presented by pinnacle sportsbook. I am rob pazola, joined by johnny from betstamp. What's going? 

00:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
on. 

00:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Just heard the devastating news chestnut is out dude, I was about to just break that to you. So obviously people when they see this is gonna they're gonna know that we've recorded this in advance, which is no secret. We tell're gonna know that we've recorded this in advance, which is no secret. We tell people all the time we do record this in advance, but Chestnut out, chestnut out. People have really turned on this guy very quickly. What? Why? Like he just took more money. This happens in life all the time. 

00:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But did he take more money and he's still in an eating contest just for somebody else? Or he just took money to rep the brand? 

01:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, so to rep, so basically like impossible. He was offered a four year $1.2 million deal by Nathan's hot dog eating competition. They're like, basically you turn up for the next four years and you can make $1.2 million. He declined that in favor of this impossible foods uh, vegan, whatever plant-based meat. 

01:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, oh, he's done. He's done. He um I chestnut sold out. Listen, I didn't know it was that. Yes, is he now on impossible meat hot dogs? I don't. He sold out chestnuts. 

01:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's done, I see, I, I think chest matt stoney, he might have sold all the marbles he might have've sold out. 

01:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He might've sold out If it was for a competing hot dog brand, is he? 

01:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
vegan. Now I don't know if he's vegan or not. 

01:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Just nuts. 

01:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think Impossible Foods went to the guy and said here's. I mean, maybe these details will break in the next few days. 

01:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It said that they gave him a four year 1.2 million. That was misreported. 

02:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Some reporter didn't even read, like the New York Times. 

02:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So he got way more money from these guys. 

02:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Apparently, yeah, he got way more. But to do what? Just to be a rep of the Impossible Foods brand? 

02:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, so he doesn't even go in contests anymore, he retired, basically. I mean, this sounds like an amazing. Chestnut, you know what you had to do what you had to do. 

02:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Because Impossible is making like these, like hot dogs, now Meat from plants, right, so he's still eating hot dogs. It's just like a meat from plants, but whatever. Like there's a lot of vitriol for Joey Chestnut, but listen, he's getting paid a lot of money to do this. It's not like he's supporting one of the world's worst causes. 

02:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They pay him to go, though. So yeah, but they he took another deal. Listen, it is what it is. You do what you do, but I hope. I hope he supports impossible foods yeah so do I. 

02:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I hope he supports it and that's why he took the thing oh, I see what you're saying, like if he actually is an impossible foods advocate. Yes, rather than just taking the money. 

03:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm not going to say whether I'm an Impossible Foods advocate or not, but it's pretty obvious to guess. 

03:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, it's very obvious over here that we are advocates for Pinnacle Sportsbook. We don't just take the money because they offer us the money. We're advocates of Pinnacle. We bet there. They give us great limits and you should do the exact same thing. We have a soccer episode coming up today with a great soccer guest, but if you're looking to bet Euro 2024, Copa America first and foremost least thing you can do is line shop. It's not that hard. Find spots with different prices, and what you're going to find in pretty much every market for each of these soccer tournaments is that Pinnacle has a great price relative to the competition. So don't be a stupid idiot when you're betting soccer in the next month and bet at Pinnacle Sportsbook in business for the past 25 years. 

03:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's a good way to throw to it. I was actually going to. I was looking up when Chestnuts started. It appears it was 07. Yeah, so usually I would have probably pivoted to. If chestnuts out, then what's going to happen? There's probably going to be an over under of 25, similar to the amount of business Business years, Years, pinnacles. You know we're trying to get better on these. It's hit and miss. 

04:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Usually I wait for you to toss the bubble, by the way, before we get into it. 

04:21
This week with our guest, I do got to say I spent like 20 minutes laughing yesterday at Buster Olney getting hacked. I don't know if you saw it. I did not see that. Okay, buster Olney got hacked by some guy who said I swear to you, I don't even know who I hacked. Who is this Buster? One person responds can you just tweet that? I that I hate Mets. And he responded I hate Mets. But then he also tweeted something that I think a lot of people thought was serious right after, which was Shohei Otani has received a lifetime ban from baseball and will receive like some sort of life sentence in prison or something along those and and it just started making the rounds. 

05:03
I immediately knew it was fake. But listen, set good passwords, people. I mean I'm not gonna save this for the plus EV segment at some other point, but at this point you're old enough to not just add an exclamation point at the end of your password so that it passes the character test. You know, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, zero exclamation point. It's not gonna cut it in 2024. Just pick a random like use a password manager. I'm not even gonna advocate for one out there because they don't pay me to and I don't, but like you, can use lots of tools out there to store your passwords in a safe way. Don't be an idiot. This is the second time in the first five minutes of the show I'm gonna tell you not to be a stupid idiot. Do not set stupid passwords. If I get hacked one day on Twitter, it will be the most embarrassing day of my life. My password is like 30 random characters and like it can't happen. If it happens, somebody's like what do you think this is gonna? It might not be 30, it could be 28, could be 33, I don't exactly know. I'm not trying to give away information here, but set good passwords. Set good passwords anyways. 

06:10
On to this week's episode. Our guest this week on circles off is a canadian-based better out of ottawa. He was previously part of our content team here at the hammer for the 2022 world cup, but more importantly, he spent 15 years working with a very large European betting group, including some crossover with Tony Bloom and Star Lizard. For the past several years as well, he's been a senior trader at an offshore sportsbook. You can follow him on Twitter at Drunken Goon. Adrian joins us here on Circles Off Adrian, how are things? 

06:41 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Thanks for having me, things are great. We got Euros, we got Copa America, we got Olympics Fun summer. 

06:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Before we miss. If we didn't mention the Pinnacle sweater, Is that the 20-year anniversary sweater? 

06:54 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
It is, and I earned it on Twitter, because they don't give these away. 

06:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They sure don't. People are messaging us all the time. We know that there's not a lot of pinnacle giveaways right now, but uh, that's a classic one. Yeah, 20 years. 

07:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so five years ago yeah, we got to get the uh, the penny circles off collab merch uh restocked and then we'll be able to put that back on the website. 

07:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Guys, stay tuned collab merch yikes is coming. Uh, before we get into it, actually gotta ask you, because I'm sure people will want to know why your twitter handle is drunken goon uh, that's a good question. 

07:31 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
It was given to me while in university because, uh, nice, I got loaded quite, uh, quite often uh, back in guelph. Oh you, you went to guelph, I went to waterloo, but I lived in guelph at the time. 

07:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So uh got it, I got the moniker and stuck I spent uh, I spent some years of my life in Guelph. While my now wife was in veterinary college Played some underground poker games in there back in the day. Very fond memories of Guelph, except the town does smell like horse manure. 

07:56 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Is there a certain pool hall? 

07:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
in the basement. Yeah, you may know exactly where I was playing those poker games. 

08:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know what these guys are talking about. Uh, adrian, tell us a bit about your background, how you got involved in the betting space. I know it's an interesting story. Floor is yours all right. 

08:15 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
so, um, I grew up in romania, uh moved to canada when I was 17 and I started betting early, really early before it was legal. Back in Romania, you could play the state lottery, which was a sheet of 13 games. You take your picks and hope you win 11 gets you something, 12 gets you something more and 13 is a card or something along those lines. So they didn't care how old you were when you placed the bet, they only cared when you cashed it. So, grade four, I started betting and uh, funny story. Grade seven, uh, I was betting with, uh, with a friend from school, and uh, we hit it big in grade seven of those grade seven. 

08:55
Yeah, it was one of those, uh, european rounds where all the favorites came in. So we're sitting in school in an afternoon school session and the scores are rolling in and they're like 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 10 and 1. And by the time the night was over, we were 12 and 1. And, of course, we were grade 7. We were bragging to everybody. 

09:17
The problem was that we lived in a shady neighborhood full of gypsies. Word got out that we have a winning ticket. So by the time we got our school, uh, some people were waiting for us looking for the ticket. So we, uh, we took a pretty good beating. I had the ticket inside my light, the lining of my jacket, and, uh, managed to get out of there with, uh, you know, a few bruises. Wow, of course we're winners now. We hit 12 out of 13. You have to wait a couple days to for the prizes to be settled. We can't cash it out, so I give it to my grandfather. He goes out and then cashes it. Then it's 35 bucks. Everybody hit it. It was one of those favorites. So we took a beating and we made 17 bucks each. It was. You know, once you hit it big, you're stuck in this industry, so we're stuck for life. 

10:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's actually hilarious. It's very reminiscent for those who were in Ontario never played whoever played pro-line pools. They probably have similar stories on the NFL where they go perfect over a course of a week but they picked all the favorites on their ticket and then they end up splitting the prize pool with thousands of people and, when it's all said and done, it's a few hundred bucks that they ended up making and they thought it was going to be life-changing money. So, uh, it's a very funny and interesting story. By the way, when you said that the scores started coming in, so presumably this is like I don't know, 35 years ago or whatever. 

10:35
How 40 when the radio when you so the radio, you're just listening to the radio, waiting for in class, just waiting for scores pretty much, yeah. 

10:42 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So basically, uh, back then european cups were played just two days tuesday and wednesday and they were playing all of them uh champions league or champions cup, cup, winners cup and ufa cup. They're playing uh basically at the same time. They're all afternoon games, because in the spring we're in school from two to seven at night, something like that. We're we're catching up. 

11:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
These are actually like the previous day scores, kind of thing yeah, that's uh quite a swing of emotions to go to, to hit the 12 out of 13, then get, get beat up after school, but you, you keep that ticket and you get out of it unscathed. How much did you think? 

11:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it was going to be oh, I big dreams, right? 

11:23 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
we didn't think it was a car because that was 13 out of 13,. But I thought, oh, we're 50 grand, whatever we're set for life, type of thing For 13-year-olds. We thought it was a pretty big score. 

11:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, for sure the illusions of grandeur. 

11:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, so that was soccer betting, presumably. I know I gave you the intro off the top. I'm aware of you through what was previously the Right Angle Sports Discord, where you often participated in the soccer chat and at one point I had reached out to another fellow better and said, hey, like this drunken goon guy, is he any good at soccer? And they were like I would tail his plays if he posted anything in there. And I started to really just I mean, you didn't know about me, but I knew about you over that time. But I've only known you as a soccer better. Where did the where did like the interest initially come from in soccer betting? And has it just been soccer betting for the past 40 years, or there been other stuff mixed in in between? 

12:21 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Yeah, so I've been a fan of soccer all my life. I played, I still play, I ref, my kids play, they both ref. Uh, I'm on the board. I was on the board for local club. Uh, shout out to cluster dragons, where jonathan david got his start. Yeah, um, and I'm on the district board as well here. Uh, basically my life is 24 7, soccer, soccer when my wife Eliza. But once I came to Canada, hockey was the main sport. Soccer on TV was basically a joke. You had one game a week that was pre-recorded from two weeks before. This is back in 1990. So I took an interest in hockey as well. And when I went to university at Waterloo back in early 90s, proline came along. So I was in the co-op program, but I ended up making more money betting hockey on ProLine and doing my co-op job. So hockey became the focus for a while. 

13:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I'm just going to cut you off there. So I'm very interested in how you made money on ProLine at that time. So I was still very young in the early 90s. I knew what ProLine was because my dad used to occasionally play tickets and stuff like that. But most of the stories you hear again and we've talked about this several times on the show before but most of the stories you hear about early bettors is that their first foray into betting was not a good one. That you were doing on your part Was it some sort of understanding what the true odds should be based off of, like another market maker or something like that? How were you able to successfully start winning? 

14:12 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So the edge there was that they would publish the odds for the whole week, on Thursday, I believe, and when you're betting Monday, tuesday, wednesday, you had additional information from the past four days that the odds would never change. So that that was. They were locked in for the week, so that made it easy pickings in those uh, those last few days of the week, the good old days man they could not recognize that kind of edges of course I mean everyone who's that pro line back in the day. 

14:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is like before I was born, though, so obviously couldn't take advantage of it. Would have loved to. Guys like zach, and I would love to take advantage of this, can't? I heard they used to do baseball games too for the series, so they just post the whole series. Uh, what game one, game two, game three, all on the same day, and then, yep, by the time game three came. You don't know. You don't know what guys are playing. 

15:03 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Pitching change. 

15:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Pitching change Guys got injured. 

15:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Fixed odds, but you know the sad part about this they still made literally hundreds of millions of dollars. 

15:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They were still raking in money. 

15:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tons of money, or else they would have never been offering these things beforehand. Yeah, that's what the sad part is In an environment where you literally could not even lose if you tried, if you, you literally, like, could not even lose if you tried, if you had any idea what you were doing. There's actually so many people still losing. 

15:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That was the crazy part. That is actually the crazy part. 

15:30 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
But I got a crazier one. I got a crazier one. I don't know if you guys know about the the christmas incident I'd love to hear about it soccer on pro and boxing day england uh lineup of games. They usually start 10 o'clock in the morning, but on Boxing Day they started all their games early. The odds stayed up until the games were final. Everybody won on ProLine that day. Classic pass posting. 

15:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did they pay him out? 

15:56 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
They paid? I believe they paid and then at some point they stopped paying. 

16:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you had to be first to the window. They probably didn't know what was going on, because you can cash your tickets right after the game. There's probably a few hour window where you just went and people just went and cashed and there's nothing they can do, there's no recourse at that point. That's crazy, literally just paid out cash. Yeah, I mean, listen, I I had an edge like that in horse racing once on a pph where daylight savings had happened already and I knew the results of the races. But you know, I was scared to win too much because I had to go collect this money from a guy and I didn't want to get beat up, but I was also, you know, wanted to maximize as much as I could. 

16:34 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
If that is a different story, though I was out of country at the time, so I did not cash in on that one. 

16:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh man, what a bad bro, worst, worst vacation you've ever taken any other, any other big ones from back in the day, like early 90s, when you're first getting started um, no, it hit the kings to win the cup of 28 to 1 when they, uh, they were eighth seed. 

16:52 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
But that's, uh, that's basically the, the big one that, uh, I would print and put up oh, nice, nice. 

16:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So when you were betting hockey um, was it just on pro line at the time I know you mentioned after you know, got more serious into the hockey stuff. When did you stop betting hockey? I know it's been going on for quite some time so, uh, yeah, basically through 97, 98. 

17:14 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
That was the only option and, uh, for, at least for me at the time. Um, I I traveled through through europe in 97 and 98. In in the summer of 97, I picked up a magazine, gq that had an article about a sports book called Intertops, and I couldn't wait to get home and open an account and that was my first offshore account. 

17:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Did you win originally in that offshore account? 

17:39 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Absolutely not. I got creamed. I was playing parlays 14 parlays and it took a while to get going offshore, but eventually I turned the corner. 

17:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. So let's talk about that a little bit, because most of the stories are yeah, I got creamed, and then there was something that happened where I just figured things out. What was the light bulb moment for you, where you turned from a losing better into a winning better, stopped betting parlaysays. It was that simple yeah, you think it was just because you were, um, like because of your past experience. Parlays were all you knew and that's why you went into it that way, or pretty much that was. 

18:15 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
You know proline, you're used to it, that's, that's what you're used to doing. And once, once you learn that you know hitting five or six is uh, it's not gonna win you anything, but if you hit five or six straight up, then you're in the plus. That's the eye-opening moment. 

18:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah. 

18:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, a lot of people have to come to that realization nowadays as well. I said nowadays again, by the way, now it's in my head, it's just stuck in my head permanently. The counter, all right. So I know that you've been betting soccer your whole life. Hockey was mixed in there. Soccer is widely known. You know, spanky recently commented on one of my pinnacle videos for soccer. I'm like, oh you know, here we go, like I'm sure Rob can beat these $100,000 markets. Now I can't. I cannot beat the soccer markets. Nowhere near full limits For you. You've had success betting soccer over a very large period of time. What do you attribute to that success to and what is your typical betting strategy Like? Are you a numbers guy? Do you originate? How close to post have you bet over the course of your life? Walk me through just your soccer betting as a whole okay. 

19:26 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
so there's stages, stages that I was lucky enough to uh to get in, uh hired, I guess, by a european group back in 2003, 2004, something along those lines. Uh, basically they, they saw me on one of the posting forums. They asked for my opinion, this, this happened to hit like 10 out of 11 or something ridiculous like that, and the guy invited me to fly to Manchester meet with him and basically that started a chapter in my life that I always look back on fully and I've learned a lot. 

20:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sorry to cut you off. You ever wonder what would have happened to you if you just went five for 11 on that day. 

20:07 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
How your life would have been different I have not looked look at it that way, but, uh, my life would have been much, much different yeah, it's pretty crazy, as I've met someone found you through a forum. 

20:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, that's the way it was back in the day, though. I mean even even 10 plus years ago earlys, people were finding each other in forums still at that point. So, anyway, sorry to interrupt, you can continue on there. 

20:29 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So they took me on board and I did some handicapping, some game previews and a lot of back end data management, and that continued for about 15 years. It gave me an opportunity to to work with some amazing people uh, without name dropping, a certain star lizard owner. He was big into mls shockingly before he got married. So I I would write mls previews for uh, for the group and uh, once in a while saturday morning I get a call and uh, you know, ask him for some clarification about a certain bet or something, a certain suggestion. 

21:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm very fascinated by that when you say that you were writing previews for the group. So when we hear of groups like Star Lizard, typically what you hear and what's reported by other people is that well, it's just this group of mathematicians right. They got like 50 plus quants that are working. They're analyzing this data, they're projecting games. From what I understand, it sounds like things were a little bit different and maybe they were willing to trust your subjective handicap of a game. Is that correct? 

21:43 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I think it's a little more than just the quants, because those quants need information and from back in the day I know that they had at least three or four sources per league of information. So they would get probable lineups from four people and then they would put those through their systems and decide what was accurate, what wasn't. And if you hit 90% on your lineups, you're doing pretty good and they trust your opinion as well. 

22:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Got it so essentially just predicting lineups, more than actually opinion on the game. 

22:14 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Well, both because I would provide my numbers along with all the information that I could gather on the games ahead of time, basically 12 to 24 hours before the game, and then they would do their thing on Sunday or Saturday whenever the games ahead of time, basically 12 to 24 hours before the game, and then they would do their thing on Sunday or Saturday whenever the games took place. And one thing that you will notice, especially on the MLS markets, is that the market moves as soon as the game goes live, because that's when the limits go up and that's when the big boys hit them. 

22:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
When you say as soon as the game goes live, what do you mean by that? You mean like as soon as, as soon as it posts and you're saying live betting limits live market, live market, in-game market got it. Yeah, yeah. No, I've noticed that as well. So you're saying that's basically a result of the lineups just being 100 crystallized final. No funny business, no pullouts. All right, here we go this is playing. This is who's playing, and now let's actually start taking some real money on this limits are up. 

23:07 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Game on, let's bet it is uh, is it easier? 

23:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, I guess we can kind of transition here. So you, you were also like a trader for an prominent offshore book, primarily in the soccer division, um, 100 soccer, 100 soccer. Okay, so you're 100 soccer trader. Break that down for us. Were you trading pre-match or live or combo both? Pretty much only pre-match only, okay. So how, how much different was then pre-match versus live from your in your opinion? 

23:37 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
uh, it's, it's a different market, it's uh different players and uh, basically you're, you have your opening number, you're working from that, based on the information you have, and you're adjusting based on the money that comes in live. 

23:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You have to react to time elapsed, you have to react to substitutions, uh, current score, things of that nature did you yourself have information or information sources on like lineups or who do you think was going to play, or were you just solely relying on the bettors and the grading profiles of the bettors and moving the lines based on that? 

24:09 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Well, you try to cultivate contacts as much as you can and get information. You trade with other traders as well, and you share as much information to protect you from getting scouted. 

24:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Got it. I have a couple of questions. I guess, as a pre-match soccer trader, you're obviously dealing in some pretty high limit markets, even though we didn't mention, you know, for mls, for example, live betting would be a bigger market. But for a lot of those other markets we look at you know, pinnacle, for example, our show sponsor, like they're dealing potentially on some of the major major sports, major leagues. Sorry, 100k per click might move a penny if you hit it. These are big, big time limits. When you're at that level, how much do you care about moving your number to be into the consensus market range? If you're sticking out and let's say you're in arbitrage with Pinnacle, people can make a decent amount of money, even if it's only a couple of pennies, given the actual liquidity on that. So how much did you actually care about keeping your number? Did you have an odd screen open? What were you doing there? 

25:11 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So first of all, you care who bets it, not how much they bet it, and then, obviously, you want to be in the market. 

25:17
We had a situation during the last Euros where a certain bettor got really, really hot and he was pricing sensitive so he would bet it. We knew he'd come again, so we'd move it five, 10 cents and it kept betting limit bets up to you know eight, 10 times. You might end up out of market and then you have people just jumping on the other side and then scalping with other shops. So you want to avoid that at all costs. But you know, when the exposure racks up you have to answer to stakeholders and you have to walk a tightrope there. 

25:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So a personal question for you that I would like to know. So how many people are actually, I guess, at the book that you were working with? How many people actually beat pre-match soccer, let's say, for epl? 

26:11 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
epl is a big, big volume league. Um, you'd have maybe five percent of the people beat it five percent of the people who bet it would beat it. Yeah, pre-match at the low at the openers or at like full limit overall uh, I think the volume for epl is mostly day off, because that's when the limits get uh big enough for that. Um, you have a lot of people that come in early and, uh, if they're respected, then you. 

26:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You keep that in mind as you, as you move through the week and how would that differ from, let's say, a lower league but still a prominent league, for example, example, something like MLS? 

26:47 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
MLS is also game day. You have certain people that hit the opener and usually whoever hits the opener you have to respect and as you move through the week that side might keep getting hit. The issue with MLS is that it's not a league you can really balance EPL. You move it a couple of cents and you're going to balance it, no problem. But MLS, the money is just going to come on one side. 

27:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Got it. So would you say that's much easier to beat MLS. Then Did more people beat MLS? For me it is, for you it is Okay. So now we're talking. 

27:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But we could assume that probably for most people it is yeah, not that you want to say like that one better's opinion is like, but generally speaking, Honestly, I want to probe a little more on this. 

27:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think it's an interesting discussion that a lot of people who are listening will enjoy is most the sentiment in the gambling Twitter sphere and in the market right now is that, like EPL and you know whatever you want to call it. Champions. 

27:47 - Zack Phillips (Other)
League. 

27:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Champions League, bundesliga, like League One, like all of those leagues. Given the limits, I don't want to. I'm not the guy who says this, but people do say those leagues are unbeatable. 

27:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Especially on game day. 

28:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like it's the same thing as beating NFL on a Sunday, basically. Yes, but people even go a step further with that. Like people say, epl is even way harder to beat than, let's say, nfl or NBA or anything like that. So talking to you now, you're saying at the book you were consulting with, around 5% of people beat it at post. So at full limits, how many people do you think beat it? And again, I know we asked this already what percentage, if at all? 

28:26 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Not very many. 

28:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A lot less than 5%. Let's say 1% to 2% 1% to 2%, so that's still a decent sample. I'd still consider that a beatable market. 

28:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean there's a lot of and Adrian can speak to this more but there's a lot of soccer betting groups out there that are looking for a lot of volume and they'll bet across the board, obviously with making sure that the prices are within range. There's people that devote a ton of resources to beating soccer. They're probably going to beat soccer, like let's call it for what it is but you got groups of 20, 30, 50 people working together to beat a sport. Chances are they're probably going to beat it. It's a massive startup cost and like continuous cost, but the likelihood that you can take that data and do enough with it that's better than the rest of the population. Who there's people working alone. I mean there's probably 1% of the groups that are beating like the biggest groups are beating it. 

29:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean listen for you, Adrian. What would you say? So, working at that sports book, seeing all the bets come in on the ticker for soccer, seeing that market, what did that tell you? As a better Like, did that make you basically have more confidence that it was easier to win, harder to win, Like? How did that change, going from better to that? 

29:49 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
And then obviously now back to better. So just a quick differentiation when you say post, I usually refer to that as the last hour once the lineups come out. So basically the last hour. Your limits are high, uh, and you're taking on newcomers? Um, there's information there, depending on who bets it as well. But uh, there's gonna be whales that are betting it just because they have to bet it. It's a Monday night DPL game. 

30:07
They have to have a little bit of action and a little bit of action for them means a lot more for others, but it is what it is. The money is going to roll in on those marquee games that are one-offs, the people that you've tracked and you're focused on. When you see it, you know that they're betting it for a reason. You might not know what that reason is. You have the lineups, but maybe they know something about tactics. They know somebody's going to come on and only play the last 15. Like, if Kevin De Bruyne is not starting for man City, it's really helpful information to know if he's going to play at all or not. So they might have that information or they might not have it. If they're going to play it as soon as he's announced off the bench, the price might not be what they want it to be. So they take advantage of the pre-game market, right especially if there's a dip because it's not starting yeah, that totally makes sense. 

30:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's I mean just to for those who don't listen. There's a lot of people watching this who understand soccer. Kevin DeBruyne, one of the best midfielders of our generation. But it's no different than like if you were watching a baseball game and you know Shohei Otani is going to come in in the fifth inning for a game. It's going to have some sort of tangible impact on the game, whereas if it's a rest day and he rests, the entire game makes a little bit of a difference. So that makes a lot of sense. Um, adrian I, I have the pinnacle um soccer up in front of me right now. There's 451 matches that are currently available to bet on soccer. Um argentina liga pro brazil a. Brasilian women, brazil seria china super league, copa america, ecuador serie b. You know where I'm going with this. There's a million soccer leagues that are available to bet. 

31:45 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Every day. 

31:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm curious your perspective on that as a trader, because to me this seems like nearly impossible to be able to focus on everything that's going on at once. So how much outside help do you have when trading these other smaller soccer leagues? And then, secondly, as a better, do you focus on specific leagues or teams, um, or are you willing to go pretty much anywhere? Um, you know the the your mind might take you if you can go through that, that breadth of offering both from a trader and from a better betting side yeah. 

32:21 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So, as a trader, you're fighting an uphill battle. You're offering all these markets and the player only has to bet one, right? So, uh, advantage player, they, uh, they can focus on one league. Uh, focus on a single team if they choose to, and they can bet it or they can pass. You have to take that bet and, uh, you know, try to balance it off and uh, you're not going to win every game on a slate of nine games. If you're winning five, you've done your job. So it's a matter of looking at it as a whole and trying to balance as much as you can and plug the holes when they happen, because you're going to have information on an Argentina league where somebody's not starting and you don't know it, but you see it on the ticker and it's like time to react does um from a trading side, the closing line value that a better gets um is going to affect their profiling, correct? 

33:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
of course, yes, does that change depending on the league? So, for example, like if you see someone that's obliterating, like bolivian soccer basically and consistently getting uh closing line prices, um that are are through the roof? First of all, actually does the league itself forget about the closing line? Does the league itself that people are betting affect the way that they are going to be profiled when a trader goes through their account? 

33:50 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
It does because it's based on the limit for that league. Right, If it's a high profile league, you pay more attention to it. If it's a lower profile league, you're trying to deal with it and you make a note of it and see how they're doing. So if you have a player that's winning in one league and losing in another, you talk to marketing and say, hey, push that league to them, the one they're losing. 

34:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like that. 

34:11 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Got it Targeting emails right, of course, classic. 

34:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
At the book you were at. I know historically they haven't, you know, limited any bettors to zero or anything like that or shown anyone the boot. But did you offer like dynamic limits for certain customers and was it your responsibility to profile that? 

34:30 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So, without getting into my non-disclosure agreement, yes, there's profiles and there's different limits for different players based on their ability, their ability, understood, understood, understood. 

34:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um, okay, what else we got here? So let's, I mean, maybe we'll shift back to betting here, because I am interested in that. 

34:53 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So back to what rob asked about the uh, the flow of uh of the week. Sorry, go ahead before it slips out of mind. So it's. It's a seven-day process. Most. Most of the games take place Saturday, sunday, but you also have midweek leagues playing. So what I try to do is I try to do my pricing the day before they play for the following week. That way I avoid last-minute bias and things of that nature. I do my pricing and then I try to get bets in early. So as soon as the market opens for the next set of games, I'm there first. 

35:26
Betting in Asia gives me a little bit of an edge over uh, you know, not having to wait for all the markets to open. And then I spend tuesday, wednesday, just uh kind of reviewing the information. I look at the box scores, watch some videos, summaries of games for the leagues that I follow. If, if there's a midweek round in Champions League and Copa Libertadores and things of that nature, I focus on that a little bit more. By Thursday, friday, I revisit, because the limits have gone up. I revisit, see where the market has moved on the games that I want to bet, or I already bet, and maybe add a little and then I don't do a lot of betting on game day. Mostly once the lineups come out I I have a look and, uh, maybe add a little bit more on on things. Or if I have something circled then things come in into focus, then I take a bet there as well how do you um navigate all of the the like news and misinformation, let's say in soccer? 

36:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So just background story by myself when I was 15 years old, I had a job with a, not a consulting job. 

36:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You consulted, here you go. It wasn't a consulting Bang, put it in. That counts. 

36:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A part-time job with a internet news company and I used to write soccer. Here was the scope of my job Scour the internet for a soccer rumor, rewrite it into a short paragraph and turn it into news. So basically I was like a gossip guy that was making stuff up on the internet, okay. 

36:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So like so nothing. Not much changed from today. 

37:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So like a player would leave a game with an injury and the coach might say he, he's going to be reevaluated, and I would take that and I would turn it into uh, things are not looking good, could see an extended absence for this player, and that would then be out on the internet Very prominent site, by the way, which I won't name right now, but very prominent site and that would just be became news. I'm ashamed of this, by the way. Like very ashamed. I was 15 years old. I didn't know any better. Like, bear with me. 

37:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Was it like a job internship, or was it just like part-time, remote? 

37:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I had 10 hours a week, part-time remote, just constructing soccer rumors. 

37:37 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
God, that's unbelievable. 

37:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes. 

37:39 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So you're the original Fabrizio. 

37:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, fabrizio Romano, isn't that guy? Pretty good, there's worse than him. Sky Sports got to be the worst. 

37:49 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
He's good, but he gets scoops, and then he gets paid for scoops. 

37:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, lately. I want to know how you stay on top of soccer news because to me this seems like an inherent challenge with betting the sport. You know I'm researching for a Euro Copa America fantasy player pool right now. I type in a player's name in Google to see if they're injured or not. I get a ton of different sources, all of which are saying different things. How do you navigate that on a daily basis? 

38:20 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Just don't try to chat GPT yet, because allegedly France is still the defending euro and world cup champion no, if I put that in right now, they're. 

38:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're disrespecting don't, don't. 

38:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no more chat gpt on the pod, no more. 

38:33 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Try it too much on your on your own time. So, yeah, it's, it's a challenge, because you don't know what's real, you don't know what's uh, what's been baked in the line and uh, like I said before, you try to culture a network of contacts and forums and Twitter feeds and build your I don't even know what they're called in Twitter anymore, but basically collect as much information Lists. That's the one. Collect as much information as you can. Try to filter it. I'm a bit of a loner, so I have to rely mostly on my opinion on news and information. I tend to trust numbers a lot more than news. But the last pass, before the lineups come out, you want to have an opinion of what the lineup is going to be before it's announced and know how to react if there's any changes to that. 

39:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right when you say you tend to trust numbers a lot more than news. In soccer very similar to hockey, actually there's been an expected goals movement in recent years. I love this stuff. I follow a bunch of accounts that are going to tell me what the expected goals of a game are at halftime and the full time. I like to see where things differ from one another. But I am aware that it's an imperfect metric, like it's. Sometimes I'll watch a game. I'll look at the expected goals. I'll be like, oh, this doesn't really match up all that well. I'm curious when you say that you rely on numbers in soccer a little bit more, what specifically you mean by that? And in particular with the expected goal stuff nowadays, do you put any emphasis on the expected goals relative to the actual? 

40:15 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Absolutely so. For people that know expected goals, they know what it is. For people that don't know, this is probably a good place to start. Okay, yeah. 

40:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The expected goals. 

40:25 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
philosophy Yep, so it's a good read. It doesn't go into too much in-depth stuff but it helps to get the basics of it. Like I said, it's an imperfect stat, but the people I worked with back in the day, they had a similar thing that they used and it came in handy for 10, 15 years. Basically, we would go through the box scores and come up with the correct score. That's what we used and you know, use that instead of the actual score in your modeling and see where it takes you, and it was a little bit more accurate than using actual scores. 

41:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I think that's a principle that's applied across all sports nowadays, where people just do like deep dive box score analysis and say this is what the score of the game should have been based off the way it played out, like kind of stripping out a lot of the luck factors and stuff like that. Are there any specific websites or apps or like tools that you use on a daily basis that an average soccer better or someone who's looking to get into the sport might be able to check out? 

41:32 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Yeah, so I use. I know the sites I use daily SofaScore for results and player scores, transfer Market for you know rosters, injuries, things of that nature and then Odds Portal and Odds Checker for line movement. I collect data and manage myself I'm a database administrator from Football Ref and also Odds from the Odds API. 

41:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, very cool. See a lot of people think news is enough to give you an edge on sports, and in certain ways it is. There's levels of it. 

42:08
There's levels to edge, but I've always believed that news alone. You need to at least put that in with something else. So if you're following the line for the entire day for a game and then you know that news is not baked in, and then there you go, like now it is, bam, you're gonna have an edge. But a lot of times, with like injuries and lineups and stuff like that, you might see a line trickle a little bit every single day. 

42:31
Um, and just for you, adrian, let's say you see a soccer game and one player is, let's say, 50 50 to play key player in mls I don't really know too many key players, but let's say a key player on toronto f FC and you see the lines trickling towards Toronto FC the entire day, meaning you're thinking now, okay, this player might be ruled in. If he gets then ruled in after that point, how do you think the market then reacts to that? Like a lot of times people might just go in and then you know hammer Toronto FC, because they see this player got in but not necessarily realize that that line has actually been trickling and maybe that news had leaked out to market. How are you like combating this? Factoring this in. Does this play into your handicap at all? 

43:14 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So I think MLS is a bit of a unicorn in that facet, because the news will come out and the line will not move. Be it because the limits are too low early in the week or people are uncertain about certain news, it does not move until game day. So there's an opportunity for smaller players that do not need to bet limits to take advantage of those early in the week and, uh, you know, have positioned themselves really well for closing line. Um, the mls has been kind of a black box because they did not release a lot of injury information. They started putting out a report this year on Friday nights or Saturday for the Sunday games and it helps a little bit. But that information is out there if you're willing to put in the time to find it before it's released. So as with all other facets, if you put in the work, you're going to be rewarded with good value. 

44:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So let's say my same question, but you take it for, like EPL, like a top player, like for example you mentioned, like Kevin De Bruyne, so let's say he's that same scenario. Do you feel like sometimes this info is already known by the market or certain people in the market, even as a trader? Like how did that come into play for you when someone was like a true, when a good player is a true, 50, 50, you're never going to be the first one to have that information. 

44:29 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So it's the lines probably already been hit before the information gets to you. Uh like, I'll give you an example. Not a lot of people speak French and I follow the two French leagues. I struggle with French but I can read it, I can Google translate, I can work my way around it. Game day limits start at midnight. I read the Saturday version of Le Keep, which is a pretty good job of lineups and who's in, who's out. It shows up at 1 o'clock, 2 o'clock in the morning, eastern time. You have a little bit of a window before the european market, kind of digests that. So you have game day limits, all the information and a little bit of a window to take your pick. It's because not everybody speaks french. If that was the case for epl, you would not have that window. The line would move right away. 

45:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Understood. 

45:25 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Understood. So with an Italian-speaking host, you could maybe do the same. 

45:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, listen, I can read Italian and understand it. So maybe we're going to have to talk off-air, adrian, and see if I could be of some service to you in some way. You know, I don't bet a lot of of. I've never bet a lot of soccer, just as recreationally, and I don't really know exactly why. I think maybe I've just been what. Are you laughing? 

45:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, just I was picturing Rob as a soccer guy on tele Latino. 

45:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
TLN or whatever. Now, yeah, but back in the day, yeah, I don't know. It's something that I've always wanted to get into but just out of, I think, maybe sheer laziness or honestly, possibly, fear of just like, why do I want to compete with all these big betting groups? And I think in the last half an hour after talking to you, maybe what I thought the soccer market was is actually a lot different than what it actually might be. 

46:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Personally, I just don't like soccer. I mean, I'm full, full transparency. I don't love the sport as like a fan, and the reason is basically the reason why there's edges like too many leagues, too many things, too many players to follow here and there, Like I could see myself being a fan of like one specific league, but it's just too much Dude. 

46:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Saturday. What's going on Saturday? You're going to be on College Street rocking your jersey. 

46:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I got to get one. I get the jersey for every Euro Cup, so I'm owed. I got to get this jersey for every four years. Italy. I get the Italy jersey every four years. This is a quick update when I get the Italy jersey every four years this is a quick update when I was younger. 

47:06 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I used to get it every year, but I don't even wear them. They don't qualify at the World Cups. You? 

47:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
only get the Euro version. I didn't get the last year's World Cup, obviously for that, and then the previous World Cup I hadn't gotten either. So then I just said you know what, I'll get the new jersey for every Euro, but Euro they. They won last time, obviously. So you got the jersey and I did as well. Yeah, I got a couple champ, euro champ it's. It's weird. It says euro 2020, but it was in 2021, and then so some of the stuff says like 2021 on the back, like the date, and then it says euro 2020. It's a little champs, it is what it is. 

47:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say we've, we've veered here for a second, but um and completely irrelevant, I just have to get to sit. Now that he's been talking about it, the new Italy jerseys that they've put together I believe the new sponsor is Adidas are horrendous. They've tried to incorporate the colors of the flag into the jersey, so there's some green, white and red. It doesn't work. Bad jerseys. 

48:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm looking at it right now. It is what it is. I'll just get the blue one. 

48:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a down, down here don't get the the white one. 

48:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The white one is not. 

48:07 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
It's not great, but if you want to get a good jersey, get in touch with the people that do the nigeria jerseys why is that? I've seen those. Those are. They have the best designs all the time yeah, you want to win unreal jersey. 

48:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I this is one of my regrets is I'll save this for plus EV, minus EV for this week. I got to write this down. 

48:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're going to save it. 

48:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is saved for this episode. Stay tuned later in the episode I got a great take on jerseys. All right, let's get back to it. So we digress. 

48:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
ESPN like talk about guys who are on top of it in terms of SEO. They published a Euro 2024 kit ranking today. Which teams have the best jerseys? I think Italy's got to be pretty low on this list. I'm just curious, who has the best? They put Italy as number three. You can throw this one right in the garbage, right in the garbage. So you're saying that article no good, no good. Germany number one with the annuity. I do like the Germanyany ones, by the way. Anyways, completely uh disregard, but might as well talk about euro now that it's coming up so you're right, I'm gonna need a second if we're gonna move there. 

49:10 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Gear change, yeah, no problem. 

49:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, look at this, off comes the pinnacle sweater what's your. Is that romania? 

49:20 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
yep, yeah, the romanian jersey yes. 

49:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, romania is actually in it this year. Yes, how do you like their chances? They have no chance, no chance. 

49:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Never say never. There's a. 

49:34 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Greece. 

49:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We go back to Greece. Exactly, we go back to Greece. What were their? 

49:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
odds 50 to 1. 50 to 1? Wow, okay, I'm pulling up right now. Pinnacle sportsbook Romania is plus 20,000 no, good no good 200 to 1 so I've got the odds up for futures. 

49:57
Obviously, with the Euro, there's a ton of ways to attack it. You have obviously all the futures like to win the group stages, things like that. There's obviously the player stuff, um. And then now in today's day, obviously you have a lot more alternate markets for these games, so you can bet players, you can bet total corners, fouls, things like that, cards, um. Are you going to be betting the euro cup at all and how are you going to be betting it? 

50:21 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
there's nothing on the side from mls going at the same time, well, euro and copa america, so you kind of have to and so what's the edge there? 

50:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
are you like I assume you're not going to be like originating these, or are you going to try to? You know, based on news based stuff? 

50:36 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
pretty much news day. Uh, tried to take some leads early on, but uh, the markets are not big enough now they're pretty preset and everything that happens from now on out it's going to be based on lineup. So if you have a good sort of this, you can bet it two, three days before and there will be some changes, but otherwise you're basically stuck with game day. 

50:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It appears the limits are already decently high. I know these are going to raise for sure, but as of these, matches have been known for months now are already decently high. 

51:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, um, I know these are gonna raise for sure, but uh, as these matches have been known for for months now, as of today you have spread, spread limits, or you know, 10k. 

51:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Here you have the three-way markets, like 7k, so like they're gonna obviously raise, yeah for sure, but it's not. It's not nothing right now. I'm referencing pinnacle. Pinnacle limits right now. Other places may be larger or smaller. Uh, in regards to the tournament, one thing I did want to ask. For anyone who just wants a fun sweat on the Euro tournament, maybe a break-even play, can you give us a couple teams, a couple good bets, like who you high on, who you low on right now? 

51:39 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So start with low England. 

51:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it's not coming home producer Zach's going nuts, you've had him already no, that's, that's Zach are you of English heritage? 

51:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yes, how did I not know that? 

51:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
how is this guy going nuts? My apologies, then football's coming home. 

52:00 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Did I know you in 2021? 

52:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, what's going on, just to think of me celebrating the Italy win against England in 2021, and Zach was just like. 

52:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I did not know he was of English heritage. 

52:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, but I was working landscaping at the time and I was working with a guy named Ezio I'm not going to say his last name, but very Italian he wore his Italian hat every day, Italian-colored sunglasses, his Italian football every day, italian-colored sunglasses, his Italian football shirt. It was tough. 

52:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was tough. That was a tough one. 

52:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So low on England, I guess, relative to market, so you wouldn't be hammering them at plus 375 to win the Euro. 

52:36 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I'd need at least 550. At least 550. 

52:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So what would you play for a no price? That's maybe some value there. Would you play minus 450? No, 400, minus 400. 400, no as a value there. Okay, who are you high on? 

52:53 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So I'm going to piss some more people off and say I'm not high on Italy, that's okay. 

52:59
I think it's literally, they're kind of in between generations. I agree, by the time next one like the world cup or the next year rolls around, they'll, uh, they'll have some more more talent come through, but, uh, not not sold on them, I. I think the best team of the euros is probably france. Uh, depth wise, quality wise, uh, they have a lot of ways to play and uh and get results against any of the bigger teams. Um, I don't know if the price is right or not, I wouldn't play it. Uh, plus 400, plus 450, but, uh, I have a couple of long shots that I would. I would take, I would take switzerland, uh, plus 5 000 or more. Uh, you can probably get 65, 67, 68 right now 68, 13. 

53:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I would play that. 

53:43 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I would play that for fun, but I mean they didn't have the greatest of qualifying but they didn't look like they cared because they were in a group that they could cruise through. And they showed at the Euro that they have a lot of talent and they know how to play the bigger teams and they have the ability to change systems to combat whatever the other team throws at them I believe they lost to spain in penalties. 

54:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Correct at the last euro. 

54:09 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
They beat france, some penalties and they did lose. 

54:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, I can't remember because I think they lost to spain on penalties. 

54:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Then spain lost to italy on there was lots of penalties last tournament lots of nice penalties if you shop around on swiss, if you shop around on the Swiss, you can find some pretty decent value. 

54:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, but it depends, because this is going to come out on Thursday and by that time Johnny's going to be back in town. 

54:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, Rob, I'm not playing these. I don't play. No, there's no way. 

54:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He doesn't play futures, so it won't be I don't play futures. 

54:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, this, by the way, for everyone. I don't count this as a future play Over in a month. That's fine, but if I do play it, I would only bet on the Homer Italy plus 1600. Take a shot, I'm not into bet on the Swiss, okay well, Swiss is one with some good prices out there. 

54:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And you said you had potentially another dark horse. 

54:58 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
The other one would be Denmark 41 or better, oh, pinnacle 50. Right now I'm still bitter from the last year I had them and, uh, the incident with the two balls on the field and the semi against england still, uh, drives me nuts as a ref. I, yeah, I can't accept that. Yeah, that was a tough break, bad break. I'll send you a link to the video if you guys want to include that I I, we, we can. 

55:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We actually will include it in the description down below what happened two balls came on field. 

55:23 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
There was a ball that was thrown onto the field and the game ball kind of passed two meters away from that ball and the referee didn't stop the play. 

55:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Really so someone threw it on. 

55:34 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
It led to a penalty in extra time. 

55:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, no good Hidden edges man. I'm all for the hidden edges, though. 

55:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was at wembley it was. It was in england that match. So I mean a little bit of a fan edge. I don't know if uh, if home cooking if tony bloom is pricing that into the the models as accurately, yet maybe a bigger home edge for for england at wembley um I would be this one's in germany, so that's what I was gonna say. 

55:59
So germany this time around. I'd be remiss if I didn't ask you about germany. Um fabian sommer Suma, a good friend of mine, part of the hammer betting network here, seems to really like their chances. 

56:09 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
He says they might be a little bit underrated this time around yeah, if you ask me, a year ago Germany was in the dumpsters, but the coaching change has done wonders for them. Also at the club level in Europe, you had obviously, obviously, leverkusen with the amazing run, win, the bonus league about also getting to the final in europa league, bayern, uh in the semis of the champions league and dormant getting to the final as well. 

56:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it was a good season for the germans to kind of, you know, get, get their act together and I think under nichols mattel, uh, nichols man, they will, uh, they will do well, especially at home so a lot of people are going to be focused on the euros because they start on friday the 14th, tomorrow, tomorrow the 14th, there is also a copa america happening, uh, at the same time, which is going to feature north american squads again um, including canada, and it's being played in the us. Pause, please, yep, no way. 

57:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No way, including Canada, and it's being played in the US Pause, please, yep, no way, no way. 

57:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The Canada jersey, the triple, this is our most prepared guess we've ever had wow, incredible uh. Okay, so canada in a very tough group uh, argentina, chile, peru not looking great canada they opened the tournament against argentina would hope for uh, I mean a zero, zero. We would take that in a heartbeat. Um, obviously a little bit more top heavy. Copa america. Do you see anyone other than argentina or brazil that is a realistic contender for this tournament? 

57:43 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Not the Americans. I'm not a fan of Greg, I don't think he can coach, but he's got a talented team. He just can't manage it. I think Colombia and Uruguay are capable of upsetting one of the big two in Copa. There's a lot of talent and they're a bit underrated. I mean, everybody's on the Messi train and Brazil is Brazil. So if you're looking for value, one of those two might be the way to go. 

58:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm on the Messi train too. I put up the Leo Messi poster back here From World Cup, from World Cup, johnny's not a big soccer guy, I don't really want it up listen. 

58:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, I I don't. I don't mind soccer, I'm just, if it's like one tournament, I think it's, it's, you know, feasible to actually follow. It's just, there's actually so many leagues yeah, it's tough. They don't even like cross over, except champions league, by the way. What something happens where nobody knows what's going on. And then one day you just hear from one guy oh, champions league finals on today. And then it's like, oh yeah, I guess. So I guess on today. I don't know if I mentioned this last time, but that's really always how it goes every time though, because you don't follow soccer closely but you just hear about. 

58:54
I'm sure there's a lot of people who don't follow soccer listening where they. You had no idea what's going on. You don't even know if soccer is being played right now. And then someone's like, oh, champions League finals tonight, or today or tomorrow. And you're like, oh, who's in it? And then they just list out teams you know of. But they'll be like, oh, it's Barcelona versus Inter Milan. You're like, oh, okay. 

59:17 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I'm going to blow your mind right now. The new Champions League season starts in two weeks. 

59:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Really one I'm gonna blow your mind right now. 

59:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The new champions league season starts in two weeks really ended during the years. Did they win, though, or no? Did it did? 

59:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
someone already win, so real madrid won. They won both games. There's only one, it's the one final. There's one game, yeah, it's, it's no. There's no two legs in the finals, it's just one leg. It's over already, yes, but now now the champions league that starts up in a couple weeks is going to be like qualifiers from the lowest european leagues to qualify in the euros correct teams, the ones you want to bet on right the, the niche leagues, that's, the ones actually no. 

59:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Even these tourneys, though, like the world cup cup, like italy didn't qualify last year. Yeah, but yet they would have been. If they did qualify, it would have been like whatever the sixth favorite, how does this make sense? Tenth, or something like that. 

01:00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Whatever it would have been I know, but but they have. You have to play your way in. 

01:00:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's the end of the day but how do they not qualify like what are these guys doing? 

01:00:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
they stink, man. What do you want to do? It's not the golden age of italian football. 

01:00:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They weren't trying like was it, they weren't trying they weren't putting the right players out there, like they wouldn't wouldn't putting their best players throw it over to adriano. 

01:00:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, I watched the games and they stink. They couldn't do anything. They're a terrible team. 

01:00:23 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I don't know what else to say. They gave up a 90th minute equalizer in Macedonia. 

01:00:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

01:00:27 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So instead of playing Portugal for a spot in, they went home. 

01:00:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, they would have had to be after they beat North Macedonia. Or if they had beat North Macedonia, they still would have had to play Portugal. 

01:00:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And if they lost to Portugal, they would have. So then how are they even close? They weren't even close. 

01:00:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know they didn't win their group, which Portugal's like the fifth favorite for the year. 

01:00:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How are Italy and Portugal both not going to make it to the World Cup? There's so many teams there. 

01:00:52 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
So Italy was like a minute away from winning their group, but they gave up an equalizer to Serbia. I believe they did. 

01:00:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They finished second in the group In Serbia, I believe they did. They finished second in the group In that game. Jorginho also missed a penalty, I believe, to put Italy up 2-0. This was back in the days of the old BetStamp office. 

01:01:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's why they play the games. I guess that's why they play the games. 

01:01:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's why they play the games. So Copa America, uruguay and Colombia have a chance. You wouldn't go anywhere further down the list. What do you think about? 40% of our audience is Canadian here. What do you think about Canada's chances? 

01:01:27 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
If you asked me a week ago I would have said no chance. But that draw against France kind of gives you a little bit of hope. We have a new manager, you know. It's an opportunity to prepare for 2026 and hosting the World Cup. Maybe they squeeze a draw against Chile and maybe they can win the last game. I don't think they get out of their group, but it's a good opportunity to play against big teams and be on a big stage and see what it's like and its preparation. And with a new manager in place, you can't ask for more than that the opportunity to play against big teams, fair enough. 

01:02:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm looking forward to it. I'm enjoying watching Canada's games in international soccer tournaments, especially when they railroad Belgium for an entire half and then lose the game 3-0 because you know it's horrible Wheels fall off it was only one. 

01:02:17 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
It was only one against Belgium. 

01:02:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was one. No, who did it? Grosjean? It was only one against. 

01:02:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Belgium, it was one, no. 

01:02:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Who did it? 

01:02:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Croatia Didn't they miss a penalty. Yeah, that was the peak. 

01:02:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Davies missed a penalty like six minutes into that game. Correct me if I'm wrong, because I believe you were there. Were you there For the Croatia game? Okay, so you? 

01:02:34 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
got the Next one. Yeah, that was. I saw the goal and then I saw the massacre. 

01:02:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, yeah, that was a challenging one. Before we get on to the personal reflections here at the end of the show, if a casual bettor wants to bet either of these tournaments Copa America, Euro 2024, what would be the best way that you would suggest they approach it to maximize their entertainment value and also give themselves the best chance to win? 

01:03:03 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
It has to be auxiliary markets, derivatives, correct score, first team to score, player to score. Those markets are not well. At some books they're synced with the game price. At some books they're managed independently. So you have to find which model you want to bet and, even though they're higher juice, attack smaller markets and make them your own. 

01:03:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Attack smaller markets, make them your own. I love that. Just as a follow-up to that, out of curiosity, you tell me whether or not this strategy may or may not work in soccer, because I'm not familiar enough with the market to know. But you talked about how, about an hour before every game, you get the lineups. The whole main markets are going to steam now because all these big groups are pricing In these secondary markets. Do they move as fast? Like, for example, say you get a surprise striker playing for one team? Would you have enough time to go to the anytime goal scorer market and bet that player? Or do those move? 

01:04:07 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
You do, yeah, but you got to be first right, because as soon as somebody else gets to it, the price is going to change. 

01:04:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well as Ricky Bobby's well dad never said. Ricky Bobby did say if you're not first, you're last. 

01:04:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There you go. So here we have these official circles off picks dating back to our record. I think we're up 72 units. Last week's guest actually gave out a long shot Yannick Sinner to win the French Open. Recorded two weeks ago Episode came out he was still in it. 

01:04:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He was on to the semifinals, so the episode aired. 

01:04:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hopefully no one bet that he did lose, unfortunately to Carlos Alcaraz, but it is what it is. 

01:04:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It was a good bet. 

01:04:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That brought our record down. Just a unit, I think, but no worries, because we have here two absolute bangers. It was, what was it exactly? Switzerland? 

01:05:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Switzerland and Denmark. 

01:05:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Switzerland and Denmark to win the Euros. And then it was. What was it? Who was to win the? 

01:05:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He said Colombia and Uruguay have a shot. 

01:05:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uruguay have a shot, but you know what? No, we're not going to count those. Those are just leans. 

01:05:15 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I would bet Colombia at 13 to 1 or better 13 to 1, or better 13 to 1,. 

01:05:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
we're leaning Colombia. 

01:05:21 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
We're betting Colombia. We're clicking, we're clicking. 

01:05:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If it wins, we'll include it in the record. 

01:05:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If not, we'll just put it in Well that's not how the best content creators out there do it, Adrian. They include it in the record if it wins. If the lean wins, it gets included as a win. 

01:05:40 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I'm an old school guy. You bet it. You bet it Better you track it. 

01:05:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm with you, leans. Don't pay the mortgage, you know. 

01:05:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, we want to go last. Yeah, closing questions. 

01:05:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Personal reflections. 

01:05:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Personal reflections. 

01:05:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's how I named them in the rundown. 

01:05:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Is this now the new thing? 

01:05:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, it's the same questions they. I'm in the rundown. Is this now the new thing? 

01:06:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, it's the same questions. They're just personal reflections. Yeah, Rob's been making this, this podcast to corporate recently. It used to just be a fun podcast. Now everything's too corporate here. Um listen, Adrian, we appreciate you coming on. 

01:06:12
I think it was a great episode to learn especially, we don't really have too many soccer guests, uh, podcast, so it's great to have more of an insight into the market. Um, so you've listened before? We do a plus ev and a minus ev, so it doesn't have to be sports betting related, but give us your, you know, plus ev, minus ev. 

01:06:30 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Moves of the week okay, I'll start with the minus ev. Don't go to costco on the weekend don't go to costco on the weekend. 

01:06:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That is no, that's a plus. 

01:06:41 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
EV. Don't, don't go, it's a plus EV. 

01:06:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Minus EV is going to Costco on the weekend. 

01:06:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll make it the negative. He's actually saying don't go to Costco on the weekend, which is some of the most sound advice we've ever had on this show. I've experienced that a few times. 

01:06:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
As a parent with busy weekends. 

01:07:00 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
All the games are playing the weekends. 

01:07:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I cannot be there and deal with it, so don't do it our uh two weeks ago's guest matt plus tv analytics spoke about the grocery delivery. I'm a big fan of grocery delivery as well, so, uh, that's, you know, I'm spot on there. You won't catch me at uh costco on a sunday during nfl, that's for sure yeah, I usually just send, send my parents if I need something on the weekend. 

01:07:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're going anyways. So, like, why am I going to set foot in the store? Although, plus, you know what. I thought about this a lot in life. Apologies if I, if I come off as uh disrespectful in any way or whatever I thought about, if I was homeless in life I didn't have a home, I had very little money to my name I would save up, get myself a Costco membership and go hammer those free samples every day. Tell me you're not going to find better bang for your buck. If you had a rough stretch in life, maybe you tailed like Book it, trends, picks or something like that and you just completely eroded your bankroll. You, nothing to do. Get what is a costco membership cost now it's like 70 bucks. Used to be 50, yeah, whatever it is. Might be up to 120, yeah. Either way, it's still great value. You get yourself like meals every day. Am I on the? 

01:08:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
line here. Personally, I won't comment on this. I I I don't want to comment on this, but the samples at Costco honestly not even good and that's a hot take I'll put in, but it's different if you're hungry. 

01:08:31
I'm not even commenting on that. I'm not saying if you're hungry or whatever, but overall those samples at Costco you get and I'm being honest here one and I haven't been for a while to Costco. I can only assume they've gotten even worse since COVID. But you're averaging about one good sample per 12. And I'd be like what are you? Those are trash foods. When they break out the Swedish meatballs though? Yeah, but that's what I'm saying. They got one good per 12 samples. Yeah, whatever. 

01:08:58
You go around it's like some cracker with nothing on it. 

01:09:02 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
And they give you a sample as an Italian, rob talking about Swedish meatballs. That's a no-no, that's a big no-no, no-no. I don't know, it's got to be Italian meatballs, well, of course I'm just saying that they don't give the Italian meatballs as the samples. 

01:09:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The best sample they have there is a Swedish meatball. That's the best they have to offer. It's a frozen Swedish meatball that they just plopped in a toaster oven. These samples at Costco unheard of bad. 

01:09:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Out of curiosity, I'm looking for some new content to do on Circles Offier. If you would actually watch me go around to different Costcos and sample the food, please comment down below. I actually think this might be a decent idea going forward. 

01:09:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know for a fact. I know our audience is going to side with me on this one. Listen, if you want to say, oh, those Costco samples are good maybe nostalgia from when you were a kid, but think about it. There's no way those are good samples. 

01:09:53 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Think about it honestly, you guys have to go together, make a good show. Yeah, honestly have you guys. 

01:09:57 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Seen the TikTok kid, though, and his dad that go to Costco. 

01:10:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't allow TikTok to steal data from me. I don't want that. 

01:10:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's on Twitter now. It's gone in there too. Now You've got to watch it. People out there watching the Circles Off right now have probably seen it. They already do this and it's the worst thing of all time. It's the most cringey thing of all time. 

01:10:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Is it because you don't like? 

01:10:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
the the creator, because everyone likes me, and johnny, obviously. Yeah, that's very different, that's true. That's true, we have a lot of fans, only positive comments on our, our content. 

01:10:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For the most part, we appreciate everybody, by the way, you guys are true. Even if it's negative, post it down below I don't really care. 

01:10:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay so, but I would largely agree with that move. You know, whatever you want to call it, minus ev move of the week going to costco on a sunday, that's johnny approved for sure. Give us. I guess you're positive then if you move. 

01:10:43 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Positive is just read as much as you can, have as much information as you can, and that's going to get you far in life. 

01:10:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Another one hard to argue with that. 

01:10:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It explains why I've maybe read five books total in the last 20 years. It doesn't have to be a book, it can be a blog. You know what? That's fair. 

01:11:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You just need to get as much information as you can. 

01:11:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You got it. I like that. 

01:11:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's fair. I can get into mine the jersey take that I saved from earlier in the episode. Go for it. This is just a random regret, but in 2006, italy won the World Cup, also in Germany. Italy won the World Cup. It was also in Germany, actually, yep, so maybe they do have a shot. Yep, italy World Cup, germany 2006. They won. Okay, at the time I really wanted to get the Gianluigi Buffon gold goalie jersey. It's a gold jersey. 

01:11:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is a joke that you're saying this. Right, I have that jersey. I'll buy it off. My mother and my sister were in Italy for when Italy won the World Cup in 2006, and they brought home that I have the long sleeve. What size? Probably a medium. I'll buy it off you. 

01:11:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know that it's for sale, by the way. Listen, listen, listen. I really wanted that jersey. Okay, at the time I was a kid. I, I, you know I was had to save money, whatever. I'm like, ah, nah, I'm not going to get the Jersey. I didn't get the Jersey. Okay, I was wearing a previous, older Jersey from 2000, from Euro 2004. Uh, so I'm wearing that old Jersey. I didn't get the John Luigi Buffon Jersey. They end up winning the world cup. That's an iconic Jersey. 

01:12:19
Years later, when I started working, making some money because I was in grade school at the time, I started making some money. I'm like you know what I really wish? I had that bouffant jersey. It's such a good jersey I would wear it. You know, just, I could wear that out here and there. I went to go rebuy it and they don't. They no longer sell that jersey. You can get variants of the jersey, yep, but you can't get the actual jersey of that one. Where are you looking? Go, try to buy it eBay. So, yes, you can buy a used one off eBay, but you don't know the caliber, you don't know if it's fake, whatever, and a lot of the ones on that also now are crazy expensive, like you can buy a signed one, for example. 

01:12:55
It's good to know, by the way, that the price is going up, but hear me out, because it's not about can I get that jersey now, or whatever. It's not. It's not even about like would I spend 500 to get that jersey now? This is the point of it is plus ev move is when you want to get something that's going to like, be part of a memory or tied to a memory. Just get it. 

01:13:13
In that exact moment, there was so much like raptors championship gitch that I didn't buy yeah that now'm like why would I not just buy that jacket, that Raptors 2019 championship jacket at the time? Because, yeah, you never know if you're going to be able to find that again or find a different one. So the lesson is if your sports team wins a championship, get the merch right away, spend a little bit extra and just grab the best pieces that you have, because you're probably going to have those for a long time. And same deal with, like you know, world cup, euro cup, whatever. If you're a fan of a team, you want to rock the jersey, you're a fan of the country, just grab the jersey. 

01:13:49
You never know if you're going to be able to get that jersey again, and maybe you paid it 200 and the next year you saw it on a savings rack for 89? Sure, that may happen, that's going to happen. But there's also going to be times where you try to get this, you try to get a jersey, you try to get like, for example, it's just one raptors jacket I really wanted. Now I just can't find that anywhere. Yeah, it was like the, the vintage one with the. It was red with white sleeves, like a varsity jacket. Try to find me that jacket now. Can't find it. 

01:14:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Tough break man should have bought that. This might be johnny's best take ever on the podcast real. Thank you, zach as proof. 

01:14:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh in in our side, uh circles off chat I've, I've showed uh, my brother was wearing my that's the one that's the jersey, I do own that I'll put it on screen. That's the jersey you can put it on if you, if you'd like, but uh, me and my brother. He's wearing my bouffant jersey right there. 

01:14:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That was an absolute banger you are currently wearing. That is the jersey from a previous one. 

01:14:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, can't remember exactly which one that was. I can never outdo the take that I had on last week's show, which was to avoid sharp bread. Appreciate all of you. 

01:14:59 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Thumbs up on that. There we go see. Baguette, yeah, so many people reached out to me yes, sharp breads. 

01:15:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Waste of time, dude, they just cut the top of your mouth. They're tough to bite into. Don't do the sharp bread. I almost feel like just using it again because it was such a big hit. I can never top that. 

01:15:19
Um, one thing that really bothered me in the last week which I thought about over time. This is maybe just for my age, demographic. I talked to Zach about it and he says it doesn't happen with his group of friends, but for me, I use Instagram not a lot, but I've noticed recently that, like you got to not follow husband and wife or two spouses. You can't follow both people because, especially if they have kids, they just post the exact same shit and you see it over and over and over again. So pick whoever you like better out of the couple. Follow one person or just mute the other. Maybe you don't have to unfollow them but like hide their stories because it's just the same thing. 

01:15:58
I'm going through these reels and it's like, oh, I'm at this kid's softball game and then the next one is the exact same picture. Like they just shared it with one another and they both post it to their feed. Do what you wanna do. People like you don't have to stop posting that. But if you're in your late 30s, like I am, and all your friends are now married with kids, just like, like. Don't follow them both on Instagram. Sorry if I offended anyone there, but that's my plus EV move of the week Don't follow them both on Instagram. 

01:16:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, it hasn't come that hasn't got to my generation yet, but I can presume that's coming. 

01:16:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm not going to judge that. Take until next couple of years. You never know. 

01:16:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, when all your friends are married, it's cool. You're like oh, you know, marco was at Boyd Park today with the family. Oh, that's cool, that's nice. And then it's like oh, christina was also at Boyd Park with the family. It's the exact same three pictures that I just saw. Like, why am I doing this to myself? I need to unfollow. I've reached that point. 

01:17:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, adrian, oh Zach, you got anything. 

01:17:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, I do actually here. I'll pull up quickly. Plus EV is keeping your tires and storage at the auto shop that you get them done. It's cheap, Keeps it out of your house, your garage, your storage unit, whatever it's out of the way. Preferably have one closer to your house or where you're living. Go get it done in out. You're in and out of there 20 minutes. You don't have to load the tires and stuff into your car. 

01:17:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's this is a winter tire. Take most of the people who people are listening right now being like god, look at these guys with their winter tires I'm gonna going to be honest with you right now. 

01:17:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I didn't even know that this was an option Like call me an idiot or whatever To store them at the shop Dude I take them up. 

01:17:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Only at certain places, obviously, but yeah, it's an option. 

01:17:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I always unload them and bring them down to my basement. 

01:17:56 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, no, worst day of the year. 

01:17:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Dude. When my wife tells I'm like can I just store them up top in the garage, she's like no, they're too heavy. And I make my wife seem out to be a bad person. She's very nice. 

01:18:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But yes, it's a horrible day. I'll come clean on this. At a previous time in my life, when I had a car that I wasn't paying for, like a company paid car, I got the winters on and I was like I don't want to change these and I just love them. And then and then it was the first snowfall and I was back in the office and he was like, oh, I got to go get my winter tires and I'm like, oh, I just got mine on, like I'm good for this year, and I just hadn't changed them from the summer. 

01:18:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The treads of warm wind because you're driving around all summer doing nothing in the snow. 

01:18:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it wasn't on my dime, but that's a plus EV move for another day. 

01:18:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that is a plus EV. That's a good one, zach. Honestly. 

01:18:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Thank you, minus EV, this one. I think it would probably apply because I'm getting older now and starting to feel it more. But like I'm playing in a lot of sports leagues which I do think you should do, but I tried to plan mine out so that they were consecutive Bad play I play lacrosse on Sunday night, volleyball Monday night. Hockey Tuesday, hockey Wednesday. I was like, oh, if I bank them all, then I have the rest of the time available. No recovery, there's zero recovery. Bad, bad move. 

01:19:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You gotta go Tuesday, Thursday. 

01:19:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
That's the move. Spread it out. Agreed For sure. 

01:19:18 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Bad move Once you get over 50, you play once a week and you hope you recover by the time next week or later. That's me Friday nights. 

01:19:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Damn. What do you play, Adrian? 

01:19:30 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Soccer I play in the winter, I breath coach and everything else in the summer. That's kind of a stupid question, nice. 

01:19:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, it could have been hockey. He's in Quebec, he's in Ottawa. Well, it could have been hockey. He's in. 

01:19:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's in Ottawa, how many times you gotta hear this guy say he lives and breathes soccer so why? 

01:19:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
because he took, because he wore two separate soccer jerseys on the show. Is that why? 

01:19:48 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
so I'm a really bad skater. But maybe I can give a plug to First Shift Hockey. I run a program here in Ottawa. The Bower does an amazing job with that. Your kids in hockey First shift hockey If you're in Ottawa Everywhere. 

01:20:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Everywhere in Canada, oh, everywhere in Canada, sorry, all right, adrian. Final question here. So I mean you mentioned you're in your 50s right there, but so this one you can go back a little bit further if you need. But if you could go back five years, talk to a previous version of yourself, what advice would you give? 

01:20:16 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Regret nothing. Do the things you want to do and uh, don't regret it. You're going to regret the things you didn't do. So do everything you want to do and, uh, live with the consequences well, is there one specific thing that you regretted? 

01:20:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
not really, because he's living by the advice he lives by his own advice, but it's easier said than done for you. You didn't spend 20 bitcoin to renovate your basement. 

01:20:41 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
My kids asked me uh, if I had bitcoin and I I back in the wild days. I had, I had some bitcoin and, uh, they'd be worth a lot of zeros right now. 

01:20:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But um we didn't know back then. No, we didn't know all the search results back in the day when people were sending me bitcoin, where bitcoin is a scam. Get out of this right away. 

01:21:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Results back in the day when people were sending me bitcoin, where bitcoin is a scam. Get out of this right away. Uh never would. Rob renovated his basement for what is just shy of two million local currency we've seen the pictures. 

01:21:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a nice mansion yeah, it's a nice food rolls out, it's a nice basement. Don't get me wrong, listen it's it's. You know I enjoy my time watching TV. 

01:21:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's obligated to it. 

01:21:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have to. I have to spend as much time in there as possible. Some nights I just don't even go up to bed. Honestly, I just sleep there to get the maximum value out of it. But yeah, the regret nothing is a little bit easier when you haven't made that mistake in life. It is what it is. Such is life. His name is Adrian. You can follow him on Twitter at Drunken Goon. Make sure you do. Tweets about soccer, tweets about hockey. Where are you posting your thoughts nowadays on soccer? There's no more right angle sports discord. We've got to get you over into the bet stamp one. 

01:21:53 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
There's another discord that kind of migrated from there. 

01:21:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

01:21:56 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
I don't know if I'm allowed to say or not. 

01:21:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know, you know what? 

01:21:59 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Maybe I'll send an invite those people get very angry about everything. 

01:22:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I wouldn't say, just in case they might, they might spite you for life EV prop. Dude is a angry guy, very angry guy. 

01:22:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's accepted an invite to come on the show. 

01:22:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Has he. 

01:22:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, he has. I was just talking to him today. We'll see you in a couple of weeks. 

01:22:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Is he locally yeah? 

01:22:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What Quick edit. 

01:22:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh man, all right, adrian, thank you very much. Everyone who tuned in. Thank you very much. Make sure on your way out the door, if you haven't done so already, smash that like button down below. We got the likes up quite a bit last week. Let's do it again this week. Helps us build momentum here on YouTube. If you're listening in audio form, rate and review five stars. This has been another episode of Circles Off right here on the Circles Off YouTube channel, part of the Hammer Betting Network presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. We'll see everyone next week. 

01:23:05 - Adrian - @DrunkenGoon (Guest)
Thanks for having me.