00:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to episode number 37 of the Circles Off, formerly podcast but now vodcast. I guess Don't call it that. I know I like podcast way better. I'm not going to call it that. It's the video podcast. Video podcast this is the first time that we're recording with video which will be available on youtube to our very small following on youtube right now but hopefully looking to grow that well we haven't made the channel yet. 

00:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We fired it up with a quick one, but uh, you know this will be our first piece of content on youtube and hopefully a lot more to come. Uh, under the we'll call it circles off banner or brand. Um, we're excited to be in video. Got a nice little studio built up here. Audio quality I can feel in this headphone sounds significantly better, so fired up for that. What about you? 

00:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it's a big change from doing the typical zoom uh calls that we've had. Where, like me and you, are cutting out, we got to pause. Edit things together. This is much better, I know. 

01:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And when we get guests toss them up on the big screen behind, I know it's a better it's clutch. 

01:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I also do think that I have the better jerseys on my side as well, which I'm a big fan of. This andrew luck jersey is. I don't like the colts. I love the cleanliness of their white jersey. What are we judging best? 

01:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
jersey on um the actual combo of looks and player Combo. The actual jersey itself or the better player? 

01:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, you have Aaron Rodgers on your side. I'd like the best player here of the entire bunch. We have some off camera that we'll they can't see the off camera. They can't see it, but we'll post pictures of them to our Twitter account. 

01:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so people can see the jerseys. For everyone listening still, which is probably everybody at this point. On my side we've got a four On camera. You can see two of them. There's another two here at the side. But we've got Odell Beckham Jr on the Giants Iconic jersey. The catch, whatever you want to call it. I mean, he's not what he used to be now obviously as a player, but man, what, whatever you want to call it, I mean he's not what he used to be now, obviously as a player, but, but man, what a run on the giants underneath him. On my side, this one's uh, more of one that it's personal to me may not be the best player in the league, but boy did he have one great season. Now it'd be josh gordon, current kansas city chief, and, uh, former cleveland brown side. 

02:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Josh gordon brown's jersey why is to you, like you, a big marijuana smoker? 

02:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, not at all. Actually I had him in fantasy when you had that insane year, oh yeah. And like I picked him up for, like we did, auction leaves like a dollar bid, and he was suspended actually for the first two games of the year due to smoking marijuana and getting caught Smoking marijuana. 

02:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Two games of the year due to smoking marijuana and getting caught and smoking marijuana, smoking weed and getting caught, which, honestly, like whatever it was, is a really dumb rule. But yeah, maybe, but he still broke. 

02:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, but anyways he, he plays two games, he misses the first two games and then still ends up being like by far number one wide receiver, and it's just an insane year. So, beckham and gordon, I guess you would say that you know they're still playing now, but the best years are definitely behind them and then behind me. If you're on video you can see we've got probably the greatest running back of all time, maybe the Danny and Tomlinson, definitely the fantasy goat. Well actually. 

03:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean there's a the running backs that were always like top of you can name them off the top of your head, but lt was always like near the top. Priest homes was always near the top. Um we, maurice jones drew. Who's on my side? 

03:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
hidden maurice jones drew is a good one. Jd, yeah, but for actual jersey, this is the best. I love the powder blue jersey powder blue charge is the best. 

03:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's great. I love the chargers jerseys. 

03:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wish they had more fans, but uh, and then, lastly, we got got Aaron Rodgers, probably potentially going to win MVP this year, definitely MVP favorite at the time of this recording, but absolute stud. He's definitely the best player overall. Although he might not be the best jersey it's just the green jersey it's a pretty elite set of jerseys. Where did you get these from? I've been a sports memorabilia collector for my whole life. People don't even know this. I'm on cam. It's a little more personal. 

04:10
I love sports memorabilia. I've been collecting since I was a kid, kind of. Actually my first entry into like you know, trading something it's like you'll buy. You buy this, like, oh, my god, I can get this, and like other people are paying this much for it and I can sell it a year, and uh, kind of like I was just a kid, you know didn't start with like a ton of money, just like you know, had a couple bucks saved up christmas money, you know, birthday money would buy some stuff. I could find online trade shows, things like that. And then, um, via just like all the apps like trading you know, kijiji, ebay, stuff like that was able to like build up a pretty solid collection. So, um, yeah, we got a bunch of like helmets and stuff too. We We'll bring. We'll bring different stuff into the studio as we can, but uh go, what, what do you? Got on your side, you got to describe it Well. 

04:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I got Andrew luck the white Colts Jersey, which is one of my favorites, and Andrew luck, one of my favorite quarterbacks ever. Well, him at the quarterback position. Like you know, when you think about quarterbacks now, you think about a guy just getting like love tap you know, falls over, draws a flag and whatever. 

05:13
That's just not how I remember andrew luck like. He was just not joe burrow either. Not joe burrow either. Man, he takes some big hits, a lot of hits too. But I got andrew luck. I got kurt warner, who is a personal favorite of mine and probably one of the most underrated quarterbacks ever like just because his career wasn't that long in the nfl, based off of when he started coming over from arena football. But kurt warner, legend absolutely, and even more of a legend now that he wore that silver puffer jack puff jacket on one of the broadcasts warner yeah, warner's a legend that's amazing. 

05:41
And then the two that are off camera on my side are a jj watt houston, texans. It's the red jersey right that's behind me yep which that one's pretty elite and the aforementioned maurice jones drew, who I had the pleasure of meeting in las vegas once at an autograph signing at some sort of mall outside of the venetian or something. What'd you get him to sign? I didn't, I didn't sign. I was like walking through the mall that day and he was there signing autographs, as was mike tyson. 

06:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is like a regular thing, I think, apparently at one of those well preston in the studio for uh preston, one of our former guests we had on bets media, bets tv. Um, he has a mike tyson punch out signed uh photo, which is a cool statement piece. I see a lot more people picking that up lately so it kind of blew up in the autograph sports memorabilia world Cause. It's like it's not really Tyson, it's not like an actual thing at Tyson, it's just the video game of that and it's like nostalgic for people who played that and also you get the autograph on. It's a great piece. 

06:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
My um autograph on. It's a great piece. My um, my first ever email addresses were based off of characters from mike tyson punch out and, like I was so bad at creating passwords at the time that my passwords were literally part of it. Like one of my email addresses is like piston 1986, which is my birth year. For piston hurricane, who is like a character. 

07:03
You don't know any of these, yeah and the password for that account was a hurricane as well, which I don't even care. If, like, that account still exists, you're not gonna do anything with it. But yeah, that's like anyone who wants to find old rob his old accounts. And was it a hotmail account? Yeah, it was. I'm pretty sure it was like a yahoo account, because that was could have been hot. 

07:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
My first Hotmail account was DelgadoTheChamp at Hotmailcom. Carlos. 

07:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Delgado, toronto Blue Jays legend. Delgadothechamp at Hotmailcom. I believe that was. I don't know if that was my first ever email address, but I think it was. 

07:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even know. I never had any of these, so some of my friends did. Actually I'll shout them out. No, actually I don't give his email out, but yeah, my couple, my buddies, had some funny ones. 

07:52
um, there's numbers in it, so I'll just give out the email but shout out my buddy mark his email uh mark underscore lincecum for uh, and then he had an alternate mark underscore mcgrady so that one was his uh, his alternate for uh, tracy mcgrady, obviously about. You know a lot of people mcgrady fans. Lcum, I don't know, was even good for more than a couple years. 

08:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I think he had probably a handful of years where he was elite and then it just went off a cliff, but that happens to a lot of pitchers. He was definitely elite for I don't have my laptop in front of me, but several years. 

08:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so we will get into. I in front of me, but several years. So okay, so we will get into. Uh, I guess first we wanted to kind of not necessarily announcements, but some segments that we were hoping to run on the pod. Now that we do have the video um number one, this is Rob's idea. I think it's going to be a really good one, but it's going to be called tweets that trigger us. So, rob, you want to explain kind of what this is and how it's going to work. 

08:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so I don't want to just uh, the point of this segment is not just going to be to put up tweets of people and make fun of them and berate them. There has to be, like some sort of reason for doing this. And it's going to be to turn tweets that really bother me into educational pieces. So it's not just going to be tweets that I necessarily disagree with or whatever. There will be an educational sports betting spin. Uh, everyone is fair game. Some of my best friends tweet things that trigger me. There's guests that have been on the show that tweet things that trigger me, who they will probably make appearances in the future. But we do want to get a hashtag going, which is hashtag tttu very simple tweets that trigger us first letter might change it. 

09:22
It might change it but let's go with that for now. If you do ever see anything that you think is going to get like, really upset me from a sports betting perspective that I might be able to turn into an educational piece. Tag the BetStamp account. Use the hashtag. It'll be very easy for us to search it on a weekly basis and we'll use some of them for content in the show. But yeah, I mean, it just came to me as I was watching football on the weekend and seeing a bunch of stuff right before the game went off which related to some public bet percentages and reverse line movement and if you're betting the game now, and so on and so forth, and just a lot of stuff I'd like to hone in on going forwards. 

10:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, well, that should be a fun one. And, uh, I mean, can't wait to pick those up during the week. You know, a lot of times I wouldn't even say I get triggered by tweets. You know, read something and you just see, like, um, the amount of interaction that a specific tweet might get and, um, it's oftentimes like it's detrimental to the people who are, you know, liking and engaging with that, because they're they're really building um their own kind of perception of sports betting off of. You know, someone who, someone's tweet where, even if the person is someone who's sharp at sports betting, might be something that they're misleading or very, um, you know, incorrect info and it's tough to see, like you know, 50 interactions saying like, yep, this is right, gotta follow this trend, like should have listened to this trend. That you know the chargers weren't going to win, you know, even though, like you know, it didn't really have much to do with it. So we'll hope to bring up a lot of stuff like that and, like rob said, it's not going to be uh, in any specific people or anything like that. Anything's fair game. Send us in, tag us. Um, we'll fire him up on the screen, we'll make it happen. Um, we mentioned it last time. We also do want to do, at least try out the second screen experience where we might live stream, um, you know, maybe with an NFL playoff game or something like that, and I think we all could all agree. 

11:13
Like, the commentary right now is is in a pretty much um, a really mixed phase where some of the commentators are quite good Um, a lot of them I don't think are too good. 

11:24
It's a lot of, um, you know, they bring up the same things over and over again time, like ah, it's the analytics, and then they'll go through the fourth down debate and then it'll be a different thing. Ah, should he have go for it, I would have gone for it. A lot of like bogus, throwing out the rules experts, you know, aren't even really rules experts anymore. So what we're thinking is potentially is making our own spin on like a little bit of commentary not going to be any play by play or anything like that. We'll give our opinion on, kind of like, what's going on different decision making, what people could do. You know, if it's, if it works, it works and we'll stick with it. If not, then we might scrap it after a couple, after a couple of tries. But either way, looking for feedback from you guys and we hope um that can start pretty soon with um, you know, as soon as the first nfl playoff game I. 

12:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think the manning cast really changed things for me in terms of watching football games, where it's just like two guys, obviously brothers, but two guys just hanging out watching the game like they would at home. It's very laid back, very casual. I'd like to try to recreate some of that experience. Obviously, we can't live stream the nfl games or you know we're prohibited from airing the games, but I think there is something about just express written consent of course right which we won't won't obtain. Well, we can ask yeah, we could I'm? 

12:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, let's see how much it costs before we say it's off the table true, I should. 

12:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I shouldn't never say never. I mean, it's a that's a lesson in sports betting as well, or it can be applied to sports betting. But uh, yeah, that's changed things for me quite like quite a bit in terms of the way that I like to watch my monday night football games. And you know, I don't want to hear brian greasy advocating to kick a 56 yard field goal anymore on first down late in the game like he. He gets real upset when teams don't kick field goals late in games. 

13:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, what about the Cardinals-Colts game? Third down and goal Round 56. 

13:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Don't please, if we were going to do a tweets that trigger us segment. This is definitely a moment that triggers me segment. Do people even know what we're talking about, though? I'll explain what's going on here. But the Cardinals are going to need a touchdown and a field goal to tie. They're trailing by 10 points. They get the ball back with 4 minutes and 16 seconds left in their own territory. I don't know if it was off a kickoff whatever, a 25-yard line or so, so basically they have 4 minutes and 16 seconds to make up 10 points, which is very easy. 

13:43
You have two scenarios here. You basically have to kick a field goal before the two minute warning so that you get that two minute warning as an additional timeout, or you're going to have to score a touchdown or a field goal and try an onside kick and get the ball. Now the Cardinals did the absolute worst thing possible, which was drain as much clock as they could get to third and goal, and then, for some reason, on third and goal, decided they were going to bring out the field goal team and kick with like 35 seconds left in the game yeah, when you could just take an end zone shot and burn no more than six to seven seconds and have an additional chance that that's your touchdown and then you only need a field goal. 

14:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But bananas. 

14:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But what's been advocated by commentators for years in the NFL is kicking on third down. Because what if you fumble the snap? What if something happens on the snap? Then you have the fourth down to still be able to kick. Well, okay, they have no timeouts left. So if they fumble the snap on third down anyways, they're draining way too much time. So, first of all, that doesn't matter. The second thing is when does this happen, do you? I cannot recall a football game where they fumbled the snap on third down and it was like oh, thank God, you know like they have fourth down to kick the ball again. If it has happened, it's happened like less than it's definitely happened to less less than a handful of times in like the last two decades. This just doesn't happen anymore. It's a very easy play. 

15:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, you're a hundred percent right. 

15:12
So, there's no, there's no, there's no explanation for this. Because, like, why would you and even if you wanted to kick it on third down like to end the game in overtime with a chip shot field goal? Like I could see that being the case. Like, fine, let's just kick it, but in this scenario, like you still needed to get more points, this was barely going to waste any time. Like if you were going to kick the field goal on third down, then you technically should have kicked it like on first down, right? 

15:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
right, you would have saved the time, the additional time, I know, but you like? 

15:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
uh, I was just so frustrated by that one of these days, someoneumble the snap. Well, of course it's going to happen on it and then everyone's going to say that's why you, you, you snap it and try to kick it on third down, because a scenario exactly like that. 

15:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Two of my friends currently have a wager right now on whether or not a kneel down will be fumbled in the next decade, and this was about five years ago. This wager was made when some guy. I don't remember the exact odds, but all I know is that one of my friends is basically sweating every kneel down in the NFL now because of, like, the one time where Phillip Rivers fumbled a snap and this all started in a group chat where it was easily a kneel down play. One of my friends got mad at the other one saying the game's not over yet. Don't say the game's over, whatever. Don't say we cashed our bet. And he's like there's no way they're gonna fumble this snap right away. I'll make you a $1,000 wager that in the next 10 years there will be a fumbled snap. I want these odds. So it's like a ridiculous wager. Now there is going to be no fumbled snap, but one of my friends only did this out of principle to make the other guy sweat every snap he's gonna sweat him out, but there's not. 

16:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's so tough to have a fumbled snap where they fumble it and then don't recover it because you're in the kneel down formation, like they put all the guys there just in case as well, like someone will dive on that ball it happened once it was the chargers with phil rivers. 

17:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If it happens again, it's going to be the chargers, because it's that they are the team that would do that. Chargers or I could see kirk cousins doing that. Like there's only like a couple teams in the league where you can picture it happening. What the falcon? Yes, like if I had to make a tier list, the top three for me would be any team with Kirk Cousins, chargers, because this always happens in Chargers and Bears, but the Bears are not kneeling out enough. That's the problem, right, but it would totally happen to the Bears. 

17:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough. Fair enough, okay. So we mentioned we're going to bring some more guests on. We've got a long list of amazing guests that we have planned for 2022. We would want to also thank everyone that came on in 2021. We might do a little recap at the year end, but now that we have the new studio, we will fire up the video on the screen so it will be a lot more interactive if anyone wants to pull it up on YouTube. 

18:06
And lastly, another idea we had for the podcast was just to break down different bettors and kind of betting patterns and things like that. So we talked about bet stamp a lot and exactly how to, you know, find winning bettors and things like that. But, like, it's no better time than now, we'll pull it up on the screen. You know, we have an upcoming episode where we're going to pull open a couple of our favorite bettors and do some analysis on, like, what they're doing right, what they may be doing wrong, what you can look for in a person just by their betting history, right. So we've talked a lot about this. This is going to happen 100%. We're excited for this, rob. What do you think? 

18:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you think. Yeah, I mean it's. It's part of the the benefits of being able to do video alongside audio as well, and obviously we don't want to. We don't want to lose the audio listeners either. So for those who are listening in podcast form, we will be like, pay very special attention to make sure that this is conducive on all platforms. I used to. When I first got into media, I started in radio. Eventually, that radio show started to be simulcast on TV in Canada, cross country. So I'm very familiar with having to appease two different sets of I shouldn't say viewers, because it's not only viewers, but you know what I'm getting at. So for those who are listening to the podcast and only care to continue to listen in podcast form, we will make sure that we do break it down so that it's very clear for everyone. 

19:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, we've got our editor here as well. Zach, are you on mic or no? Yeah, my mic should work All right, so we got Zach as well. He's a new. I guess we'll call it an asset to the podcast. He's going to be like our young Jamie for those Joe Rogan experience listeners, he into the podcast and be like our young jamie for those, uh, joe rogan experienced listeners. We'll be able to pull stuff up whenever we need, put it on the screen. Um, you know, we got a sound board. I think, like you know, for listen, we're not gonna make us a joke podcast. But you know how. Rob said he he mentioned his email earlier what the passwords were. I know one guy who's gonna look that up right when he hears this. And zach, zach hit the drop. What happened to you, pizzola? So we're going to have some drops in there. That obviously being our friend from Italy. Regards from Italy. 

20:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Francesco. Regards from Canada, Francesco. 

20:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Francesco, nice to see you and definitely, you know we're going to, you know, just make it a more fun podcast as well. So that's the summary. With that being said, you know, I think we're also need a new table, because, or something angled, because my neck is already. 

20:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're, you're like a hand, a microphone in the hand guy. 

20:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm done right now, Like I don't know what's going on. 

20:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I need it. You have ADD or something all over the place. 

20:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What I need is you guys, I can't sit still right now. We need a desk right here for this mic, and then I can face the cams. I don't want to face angled cam, I want to see looking. Look, then my thing doesn't. Hello, hello, hello, hello. You know what we're going to make this work, but first week you got to bear with my necks and shambles. Right now we're going to need a new desk for next week Today, for next week today. 

21:09
Two amazing topics, rob and I. Number one we're gonna go through is the absolute best way to purchase picks from somebody. Okay, now, yes, we get it controversial. Don't buy picks. These guys are idiots. Don't buy picks. Why would they be pressing buying picks? If they actually bet for real, they would never get. They would never, like, you know, recommend people to buy picks. Yeah, we know all that understood. 

21:25
What we're telling you is this we're, if you want to buy picks, which most people do, we're gonna basically break down process of elimination, what to look for, what you can look for and how you can do it correctly. You know, buying picks is not the worst thing in the world. In fact, you can be profitable tailing other people's picks. We're going to show you how we're going to just break down some things to look for. We've gone through in the previous episodes and we've basically explained what to look for in pick sellers, um, so it'll be more of a similar episode, but right now what we're going to do is process of elimination from a pick buyer. How's that going to work? 

21:59
Um, and then, when that's done, our second for today, which is a really interesting one for a lot of people, more of a sharper topic, is market manipulation. So this is betting. Markets often get manipulated, just like every market. We're going to outline some examples how it happens and, more importantly, why it happens. We're going to show you exact examples of times in which this has happened, exact examples of times in which this has happened and you know. Hopefully it can teach you guys and everyone listening what it is and how to potentially use it in your favor instead of getting burned by it. So, rob, with that being said, best way to buy picks process of elimination you're up, okay. 

22:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So let's start with this, because it's important to note this and for other people that haven't listened to previous podcasts as well Buying picks does make it more difficult for you to win. So, just so people understand, when you're betting with a sports book, you're betting into a VIG, usually minus one 10. You do have some reduced juice books as well, but you're betting into a VIG. That's where the sports book has the reg because they're charging you. You're going to have to now win at a 52.4% clip at minus one 10. That's where the edge comes in into play. Now, when you add in buying picks on top of that is just another cost to overcome. Now there's a lot of factors that put play into that decision the amount that you're betting, the amount that you're paying for picks but it does make it tougher to profit. So I think there's a caveat there. I just want to share that. That doesn't mean that I'm opposed to buying picks. I've sold picks before. People know this. Sold the pick service for a year, but that has to be said. Now for buying picks Shameless, shameless self-promotion of Betstamp. But one of the first things I would look for nowadays is third-party verified in some way, because I have tracked people's picks before. 

23:59
Prior to working for Betstamp I for those who followed me on twitter for a long time, I had a feud with a few touts, philly godfather vegas runner, who is now johnny q, whatever, yanni the greek, yanni the greek, uh where I tracked their picks for years and they were very different from what was posted on their website. 

24:23
So just because somebody posts plays on a website or a Google sheet or whatever their Twitter account, there are obviously ways to delete those. It's very simple. If I started a Twitter account and was posting plays every single day and I didn't have enough followers, I could go back to any previous day and just delete a tweet of losing plays Very simple. If I run a Google Sheet, I could do the same thing. If I run my own website, I can do the same thing and, frankly, there's not a lot of. Even if someone were to catch me in the act and call me out, it's not getting to the majority of people that would be interested in buying my plays anyways, whether that's a reddit thread or some sort of forum. So for me, the number one thing I'd like to see is some sort of third-party documentation verification, definitely agree. 

25:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So process of elimination we're saying it's not a hundred percent. Nothing we say on here is a black and white. Hey, if they're not doing this, then see ya, that's not what we're saying. We're saying that is likely the number one thing you're going to learn is that, if you like, if they don't have that, it's too many red flags, so even bigger pick services now. Um, you know stuff like right angle sports, I'm sure we'll get into. 

25:42
Um, you know, has reached out to us and basically said you know, we want that stamp as a third party verifier, so everything that we put out, we don't want to just post it out on our site. Um, we want it on bet stamp as well, in real time. So we've been able to do that, um, and it just it's basically an extra thing where, like, if you have nothing to hide, then why? Then? Why not like what? If you're trying to make a legit business of it? It's an extra layer of verification, it's 100% free, it takes a little bit of time and it's going to actually build a lot of credibility. So that's number one. Even the big pick-selling services no excuse to not be posting on a third-party verified app. Obviously, recommendation would be. Bedstamp is where the only one that allows you to verify against multiple lines and obviously have a significant amount of other features we reach out to a lot of touts. 

26:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
ourself bed stamp does this? This is like a regular thing for us because we want to onboard people onto our platform and we want to be the source of the truth in terms of verification. I can tell you the most common objections we get, which are valid to the person who is saying them to us, but I don't buy them as excuses. The first is I'm just lazy and I don't want to have to track the picks which, honestly, if you're buying from someone who is too lazy to document the record somewhere else, which takes quite literally 15 seconds to lock in a play, then I would be very concerned about that person's work ethic if I was buying from them in general Not saying that you necessarily need to work so hard to be winning at sports betting, but that would be a character flaw that I would say I don't want to buy from this person anyways. 

27:20
The second is well, if I publicly post my plays, then you can reverse engineer what I'm doing. Somebody out there can okay, these are all the outputs, these are all the picks that so-and-so did. I can produce some sort of model. Somebody can produce some sort of model that is able to replicate what I'm doing. While technically possible, I would say that it is extremely unfeasible for that to happen. 

27:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They could always buy your picks and get that anyway, of course. 

27:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So those are the most common reasons that we get, but to me neither of them really holds water any water. 

28:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A valid reason is actually that you don't want the plays to be released at all. If you don't sell picks we talked about this last week it's a valid reason. If you don't want your picks out there for whatever reason, power to you. But if you're selling picks, your picks out there for whatever reason, power to you. Um, but if you're selling picks and anybody can access these picks by via paying you in oftentimes a small amount of money, such as 10 bucks a month, you know, 20 bucks a month. If you're willing to give your pick somewhere 20 bucks a month and there's absolutely no, you know, reason that you should say, ah well, I don't want them out there because I don't want people to reverse engineer or anything like that. Like, if you can pay it and it's available for a subscription online, then you know like, no, no excuse there but it's. 

28:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like this is just common sense. And we're harping on the first topic, which is like but you, you would always do this. Almost everyone does this in other forms of their life. Like, if I'm gonna going to go see a movie, I'll probably check up, check out a movie review for that movie before I go. I don't want to read about it, and I'm not saying everyone is like this. I'm going to go to a mechanic or something. I'm going to ask someone. Like, if somebody, either I'm going to get a referral from someone else who says you know, I go to this guy and he's great, or whatever, or I'm going to probably look it up on some sort of google reviews. Like people seek out other advice. The challenge in this space is that a lot of the other advice out there is excuse my language, but essentially a circle jerk of all these touts that are promoting one another we're demonetized. 

29:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's over demon. This episode is getting demonetized, first video. But it's. 

29:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's essentially what it is like. I you see all these touts working together promoting one another. There's it's just a big marketing angle. So, with the third party verification, there's nothing. No one can pay us. No one's paying us to alter their picks in any way. That that's not how our platform works, period. And there's other platforms out there. I mean I'm not going to name them, but really I think we do this the best. 

30:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Agreed. Okay, so next up process of elimination. So you want someone third-party verified? I think it's honestly a prerequisite at this point. If anybody ever asked me and people do ask me, what do I look for, that's got to be a prerequisite. If they don't have that, then I think for the majority of people you should write that off Again. Like I said, it's not black and white. There are people who are not third party verified who win, but if you're a new person looking in, chances are you're likely to get burned significantly higher rate by somebody who's not third party verified. Well said. 

30:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, these are not like 100%. This needs to happen, but we're outlining what we would do in these scenarios. 

30:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so what do you got next? 

30:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
To go down a number of different paths here. This one's a little bit more complex, but I think it's important and it's oddly enough the manner in which they post plays or where they're posting plays. So, for example, if I see someone tweet out a $100,000 screenshot of a play at Bovada which is an offshore recreational square book, I know that one the image could be altered or doctored could be altered or doctored. Two, in order to get a $100,000 bet at that book, you have to be a long-term loser or a VIP. So a lot of these guys and girls out there who post screenshots, images at certain books and what the bet is and the bet size at that specific book reveals a lot about them as a better, and the bet size at that specific book reveals a lot about them as a better. 

32:00
Now, I understand that that's difficult for a novice or a rookie better or someone who doesn't know a lot about sports, who's picked buying, to decipher that. But there are clues in what sports books they're posting from the dollar amounts if they're showing screenshots. The timing of the wagers is another one as well, specifically if someone posts and we've talked about this on this pod before, but it's always easy to use lebron james as an example, because if lebron james is out, of, a game line is going to steam like crazy happens for star players in every sport. But if someone posts a play on that game two hours after the player, the injured players, announced out and says I'm playing this because this player is injured, that is a dead giveaway that this person is not a long-term winner. So those are. Those are a couple of things for me the sports books that they track at or play at, bet sizes at those books and timing of bets. 

32:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, fair enough. I would add one more here. If I'm going process of elimination, and it ties hand-in-hand with the verified record keeping. But outside of verification there, even if you just want to keep it on your own, the most important thing that I would look for when trusting somebody who I just want to keep it on your own, the most important thing that I that I would look for when trusting somebody who I might want to tail their bets, um, is that they actually care about it in a like and there's a few things that I can that I can pinpoint, but Rob mentioned record keeping as one like people being I'm too lazy to track these. If you don't have an iron clad, pristine tracking sheet or something like that, or use something like bet stamp, or even you know competitive competing apps, if you don't have something that tracks every single thing you bet the exact amount, you bet it the day, you bet it what book, you bet it at all that stuff Then I don't necessarily trust that you're going to have the skills or the you know, the ability to actually go through and beat the market. So, for example, if you have someone who says, if you, if you say yeah, I'm up, um, you know I'm up 35 units attracted on uh on Twitter. It's like, well, what's? What's your breakdown of those units? Okay, what? What sport? What bet type? What sports book? All of these things are vital in actually determining you know different paths to success. So if you're constantly losing to one book and beating another book, that's a really big trigger gonna help you a lot. If you're constantly winning at one sport or one bet type or one you know prop type, and you're losing at others, it's going to help you a lot to actually know that info. 

34:29
Anyone who's not willing to put in the work or have the capability or knowledge to actually go through track everything manually and or via an app, um, and just have it in there, there it's. It's essentially like buying something off of a business that doesn't have their books in order. You know, to be a reputable company, you have to have everything in order. You need to know, like, okay, this is my cost, this is my profit here, this is what I can do. I can go down to this price. You're not going to want to buy off someone who's completely like to trust someone to give you a service when they can't even tell you, like, how many services they've provided or you know the quality of those services or where they might be going wrong. It's like it's very muddy and it's a. If you're serious in sports betting, you want to make money, gotta just keep everything clean, record keeping. 

35:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Huge, huge deal for me that's a good one, I think it. I mean, these are these? A lot of these things are just monitoring a tout's behavior. Before you buy picks. That will, uh, and and I'm very consumed in the twitter platform, not so much in the instagram tikt, tiktok space, where there's touts on those platforms as well. But there's things I see like when Owen three this afternoon, we're going to get it back on Sunday night football tonight, discounted price, whatever chasing right To, and then larger place, larger play sizes or anything you can do to get that. Then larger plays, larger play sizes, anything you can do to get that. I mean, this is what recreational bettors do in general. Um, and there's a lot of totes that mirror that kind of behavior where, if this wasn't a play for you this morning, why is it a play now that you've lost three games in a row? So there's dead giveaways like that. 

36:07
But the biggest one to me, um, where I think it's very, very easy to spot um winners and losers, is the marketing trends that you'll notice from a lot of touts. So, for example, someone who sells MLB plays and it's in the middle of MLB season and they're advertising like their all games record or some other sport probably give away that they're not having a good mlb season. They don't even know it. They're trying to market themselves in some way where people will buy picks, but they can't market an mlb record, for example. Then you get the, you know so, and so is eight and one in his last nine nfl totals plays well. Why did he? Why did he pick nine, a sample size of nine to like? This is a question I would ask myself. Right, tell you guys a little hint, it's for everyone. 

36:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If anyone says they're they've won eight of the last nine, guaranteed 100 of the time, that also means they've won eight of the last 10. Yep, think of it. Yep, if you're one's true. If you're 12 and one and your last 13,. You're also 12 and two in your last four, every time that is, I mean I, I, I can't argue with that. Like I can't it's not a big deal, it's not a revolution Everyone knows this, but it's like people cherry pick different things. 

37:31
I think honestly that's just marketing in general, so I'm not even mad at that. But um, you mentioned, like when I even go back this record keeping, like it's not even about saying, oh, this is my, oh, I'm up this many units, like if you want to buy someone off, picks off somebody, you have to literally say exactly. You have to ask them like, hey, what's your record in this year by sport, by bet type, exactly how much was risked on that? What's your record in this year by sport, by bet type, exactly how much was risked on that? What's your ROI on there? Not just like, oh, yeah, I'm 53% this year. Like 53% on what? Like 53% on straight bets minus 110, 53% against the spread. Are you 53% on picking NFL favorites of minus 250 or more? Like it doesn't. 

38:13
None of this actually tells you anything. If you just look at one line of record, you need to delve in to some sort of tracking before you actually go through someone. And if they don't have those plays documented, then it's like a immediate write-off right away. If they do have them documented, it's a lot of stuff we will get into still now. I'm sure here that you can look through. But no document, no business for for me. 

38:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree with that. I think, ultimately, at the end of the day, there still needs to be a match between the the pick buyer and the pick seller, and when I say that there, there are touts that I respect. 

38:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
now, granted, these are the ones that the betting market respects but there's some that I respect, that are not in, that are not necessarily public figures in the betting market. It's not that. It's not that I I respect a lot of touts that I personally think don't even win, and the reason I respect them is because they still go about it in an honest and open way transparent yeah, and and still keep the records and still try to improve. 

39:08
And then I do feel there's a significant shot that you know. Okay, I don't think you're gonna this season, but you're on the right track and you know a couple of strides here and there and you will be a winning better next season. You know what I mean. Have you ever come across that as well? 

39:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, of course. I mean there's, it's and there's nothing. That's just clear cut. Um, there's guys that long, like you said, and there's long-term winning bettors that are going to have losing seasons, long-term losing bettors that are going to have winning seasons. There's always some element of variance that has to be accounted for and I mean that's not easy to do. Not everyone that's a winner is going to release a play and move the market. That's not the case. I mean it just doesn't happen that way. But here's what I'm saying. 

39:55
We had fabian somer on this show, suma, one of the earlier episodes. Football handicapper, long-term winner, five seasons of documented record keeping, now tracks on bet stamp as well and he's going to release a play. He's going to give everyone a heads up in a slack channel play coming in five to 10 minutes. But as soon as he posts that play, people are going to rush to bet it, for a good reason he's a long-term winner. Everybody wants to back that play and get the best of the number. 

40:25
If I'm a guy that works nine to five I'm in meetings for a lot of times in the day. I'm not checking my phone every five minutes. Five to 10 minutes not available to bet these, then there's not a lot of value in me betting, picking that pick service. This is what I'm talking about the match with buyer and seller right. 

40:43
If there's someone, for example, that I believe is a long-term winner, is going to post his picks at the same time every morning, 8am, I can bet them, go to work, don't have to worry about anything else, and that matches my lifestyle, then maybe I'm going to go for it. So I think that there's like an element that's not accounted for in. How am I going to get down on these plays and like do I need to be available at all hours of the day? Somebody going to send out, is my tout going to send me information saying Carsonon wentz just got announced out, go bet, go bet the las vegas raiders everywhere, plus seven and a half, where it's not even on the board in most of the spots gets removed. Going to count it towards the record and I'm just going to be like there are those match, like those stylistic matches that I think are important. 

41:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, there's two types of touts. There's touts where they release the play and you can get the number all day or potentially even get a better number, which obviously a huge red flag. And there's a touts that release a play and move the whole market and if you're not available to get that in a short period of time, then you're likely out of luck as well. So, like rob saying as well, it got to be a good match. I know, right angle sports just released like a more of a light type package where they only release one play a day. It's at noon, so you can get on your lunch break, etc. And it's a good solution to something like that, where you have to have, like like time. The time is everything. If you're not betting all day, um, or sorry, I don't say if you're not betting all day that's actually a mistake. If you're not available to bet all day, then you're obviously going to miss stuff, and everyone in the world has all alternate commitments. You know, no one just sits in front of the screen 24, 7, so everyone's going to miss stuff, um, but at the end of the day, like that's a big deal. You have to know, like when one play, like when the optimal time is to get stuff. If you, for example, subscribe to Sumo's picks and you only bet them an hour and a half after he bets them, or five hours after he bets them and you're just getting the updated market numbers, then despite him being a good tout, who we feel potentially checks all the boxes I'm not going to say wins long-term, has won in the past and checks all the box I'm gonna say wins long term. You know, has won in the past and checks all the boxes. Even despite that, like if you're betting that hour and a half later, doesn't matter, you're gonna lose, you're likely gonna lose. So, um, timing is everything. I'm glad you brought that up. You got to make sure you're a good match. You can get the plays right away on release and you have to make sure that obviously something's happening when these are being released. And if nothing's happening when these are being released, you have to know why is it? For a reason does that person release it to a few people who he knows are not going to move the market and then blast it after? Do they not bet it out themselves? Because they're being paid to not bet it out themselves because other movers are are blasting the market later. These are all big things and you I I think you should probably be asking more questions when buying picks from someone that are not necessarily do you win, do you win? 

43:40
You're always going to get some sort of bullshit answer. It's always going to be yes. You should be asking about records and you should be asking, like where it is and where you can look throughout on your own. You should also be asking about the timing of pick releases. What happens typically after those? You can check. If you see a documented history, you can check what time that person releases it. That's why the tracking apps like Betstamp are so good. You know, if you're in an Excel sheet, the chances are he's not going to write down the exact time of the day. It's not going to be a timestamp of when he released a play. It's going to say December 19, chargers minus six minus 110. And maybe, if you're lucky, 19 chargers minus six minus 110 and maybe, if you're lucky, puts the book. But if you're on bet stamp, you're gonna see book time, time stamp date. It's gonna auto grade. You're gonna see closing line value at the end of the week. 

44:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're gonna see potentially in the future movement of how that line moved at the time when that was posted, so a lot more stuff there as well well, and I think the time stamp one is one that I didn't think about, but it's extremely important because you know we go through profiles on Betstamp all the time I know at least I do and you'll see people who are very successful, who are selling pick packages, but they are selling plays that what we typically call overnights or releasing the day before. There's nothing wrong with that. I mean winning at sports betting. You win, however you're going to win. But if you're going to charge me a certain amount of money a month, I have to be able to justify a certain bet size to get down on those. If you are releasing plays on FanDuel openers when they are the only book in market that's opening at that time and they're coming out with a $100 limit, and then you're charging me 500 bucks a month for those plays, well it's very unlikely that I'm going to see value on that in the long run. So that's another thing. When it comes down to looking at the time stamps, when is this person betting? Are they betting into mature markets? Is it the day before and like to each their own? 

45:33
There's I'm not saying never tail someone who's betting into early markets. You just have to understand what your market is going to look like at that same time? Right? Why am I going to buy picks off somebody who's betting fan duel openers when I don't have a fan duel account? And by the time then he puts out those openers, nobody else has some numbers on the board yet. 

45:51
What value is that to me? Right, so that's the enough information to make an informed decision. And when you have a full, verified third-party record with the individual plays, you can make that informed decision a lot easier than when it's just pulling up a random Google sheet, like you said, not timestamped. Sometimes odds are not even correct and it's like or people who don't update those sheets for days or weeks sometimes, and then there becomes all sorts of issues. When you go logging a bunch of, when you go logging 100, 200 plays at a time, you get all sorts of data entry issues as well, like this is just verified real time stuff, so that that's it. That's what it's all about for me. 

46:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, the other good thing about bet stamp is a lot of times touts will send like one set of plays to one subscriber base, one set to the other, just to you know, manage risk within their subscriber base. With bet stamp it's all, like you know, instant goes out to your whole subscriber base. No, no trickery there. But to your point on like the timing of the moves, I want to bring up one example. Like we've had both of the pro bet guys on here, that's uh harut and uh drew, who is on just a few episodes ago, and the thing with kind of like a style of betting that they're doing is like you know you could have access to every single play that they did and you can have access. You know, like five minutes later after they played it and it's not going to be valuable to you. So you're not gonna be able to pick up those numbers anywhere. 

47:17
You might be able to pick up, you know, a stale couple hundred bucks here and there, but the reality is they're getting ahead of numbers right. So it's it's not even like if they told me like, oh yeah, we want to sell picks, they would never even say that because they know that they can't. They can't possibly sell picks and still bet at the same time. All they could do is, you know, give, give alerts or something like that, but it's never going to work, because you know you could have access to their whole history. You can get to do this. Those guys win, but it's not going to matter, because you're not gonna be able to get those numbers. And not getting the same numbers or not getting the best of the number is the recipe to lose afterwards. So you know, if you had everything, even, like I said, even five, 10 minutes late, the info is next to worthless. You know we might be able to scrounge at a couple of pennies, but that's going to be the most. 

48:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think we've done a pretty good job on this topic. Just a lot of things to look for, but you have to do your due diligence. Just like any case, If it seems too good to be true, it very likely is. 

48:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and on the Instagram stuff, like the funniest one that I could say is, like most people you know, instagram is more of a photo slash video platform. It's so frustrating to look at this and it doesn't even trigger me anymore or anything like that. But like, don't get caught up in people who are like posting photos like on with like an ocean view and, like you know, gucci shoes and stuff like that. 

48:39
I'm like, oh, sports, sports betting king, like that, you can't do that. Like that's not, you're not going to be able to bet sports all day from the beach. Like you, you need more than one computer screen. Like you, you need probably. 

48:54
I would go ahead and say, like, if someone's betting on like one computer screen, one like just on their laptop, like you're losing out on so much money to be made, like you can't just bet on screen. There's no way they have a laptop on the beach and they're just, it's not going to work like that. So, that being said, again, like you know, those are all pictures that are pretty cool and you know someone there and they're like I got these like Gucci flops, and here's my uh, you know, here's my Mac with mac, with my iphone, with my apple watch, airpods in the corner wooden case, and then, like I'm overlooking the thing with my gucci flops, like you know, probably not an actual sports. Better, those people are, you know, buying into that image and that lifestyle and think like, wow, this guy must make a lot of money because he has that stuff. 

49:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But it's likely not the case well, lifestyle tells you nothing about that person. As a sports better like, particularly as a sports better like, that person could have made a bunch of money in the stock market. They could be, they could have inherited a bunch of money from their parents, or just being born into a rich family or whatever. That money could come from anywhere, could come from their pick sales, just because they're very good marketers, which we know of a lot of people who are, you know, clearing big sums selling picks that don't even win, and I mean that just feeds into it. I think a lot of people see that and they're like, wow, that could be me, you know on the beach and whatever. But uh, yeah, just don't get taken by that. 

50:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Don't get taken by that. All right, so we're going to get into our next topic. Zach, what, uh? How much time are we at right now? 50 minutes, we're at 50. Oh, we talked for a while. 

50:24
Oh man, we're gonna have to cut some stuff out, uh no, I'm just kidding we don't really edit stuff out on this podcast, um, you know, unless a guest or anything has asked us to in the past. But um, for youtube I don't know how it's gonna work. We might have to edit some stuff. I'm fidgeting like you would not, like you guys would not believe, for anyone who's on the uh, on the audio. I cannot sit still holding my mic. I need I, we need a desk right here. 

50:47
This is you're right, you're sitting on a folding chair. Yeah, no, this is it. We're getting new chairs and desk for next week. Like we'll put the orders in today. We gotta get something. Who knows when it'll ship here. But I don't think I've moved this entire. No, you haven't. He's a seasoned vet. Rob is a seasoned veteran of doing video appearances. He's obviously appeared on TV before and Podcasts, stuff like that Radio gigs. 

51:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now appearing on Cameo. 

51:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Shameless self-plug. I am on. 

51:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Cameo now. 

51:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Why didn't you say that before Christmas? You can book me. 

51:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have been booked three times already. Hit that drop please. 

51:23
What happened to you, pizzola? I am raising money for charity. So whatever Cameo does I don't even know what Cameo's cut is of the thing I think it's like 20, 25%. The rest of it's going to charity, raising money for diabetes research and cancer research as well. So if you want to book me for a Cameo, you can do it. I've done one that's a positive reinforcement video, which was nice. It's like you know you're going through a tough time, bad period of variance. Like keep, keep your chin up If you want. Like the negative, you know, trash my friend. One guy's just like please trash my friend for betting on Drew Locke, which I absolutely love doing that video. 

52:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Even though I for betting on drew lock, which I absolutely love doing that video, even though I have. People might not even know what cameo is, for anyone doesn't know. It's a platform. Now we're giving a plug, free plug cameo. Sponsor us. No, I'm just kidding, um, we're giving a free plug cameo. It's basically a platform where, uh, you can I don't think now I feel bad saying this you can get shout outs from celebrities. So not nothing that rob is a celebrity, but he's, I guess, an influencer. He's definitely an influencer in the sports betting world. So you can basically pay this service cameo. What are you charging? How much is 20 bucks? 20 bucks, okay. So for 20 bucks, for a 20 donation to charity after cameo's fee. Uh, rob will essentially make a video of whatever you say within reason within. 

52:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I denied one video one one guy tried to sneakily. He he sent me like a request on sunday. It's like please record a video with all of your nfl pics for next week. That that was a hard decline. Like, come on, like I'm gonna buy that for 20 bucks exactly. I'm like, come on, at this point I mean, I mean you might need to up my, the amount that I'm charging if I'm gonna do pics videos yeah, sure, yeah, but but uh, I think that's, that's funny. 

53:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So yeah, you can get rob on cameo. There's a lot of other people on there. I mean, I've gotten it for a couple buddies before. That was pretty like actually hilarious. It's a great concept. So if you want rob to trash your bets, then go get him. Get them. 

53:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Cameo, yeah, trash your friends' bets whatever To clear the air. Cameo reached out to me so I want to make that explicitly clear. They emailed me, said we're looking for sports betting influencers on the platform. Would you be interested? At first I said nah, I don't think it's for me. They said we know you do some charitable stuff Would be a good fit. You can link it directly in app. Sales pitch is really good. So I'm there now. It is charitable. I actually do like doing the videos. So if you send a request, it's very likely I'll take it. But don't send me a request to give you like my pics for the week. That's not gonna. I'm not recording. 

54:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I didn't even know we had that one. That's awesome, okay. So we'll get into the market manipulation real quick then. So we'll try to keep this like 20 minute segment max, um, so we can keep the podcast a reasonable hour, um. So market manipulation this is basically something that happens in all markets. Like I mentioned what this is, and before I get into it, I really have to explain kind of like how a lot of the new school sportsbooks are posting lines in today's day and then I can get into why you'll see that market manipulation. 

54:30
But what we mean by this is people betting, you know, potentially the wrong side of what they actually want in order to move a number, and you know kind of like a little bait and switch. You know you bait the sportsbook to hang a worse number, a more favorable number on the side you actually wanted. So then you can in turn get more money down on that other number. So, in a quick example, if I could bet at a sports book and let's say there were different accounts, right, so Rob's account, if he bets $ one dollar, he'll move the number 10 cents. And my account, if I bet a hundred dollars, I'll move the number 10 cents, and on. You know, let's say, aaron rogers account, if he bets a hundred thousand dollars, you know he doesn't move the number at all because they're like aaron rogers, he doesn't bet, he's quarterback in the nfl. So basically, what would happen is potentially you'd have like rob and aaron rogers working together and they would say I'll just call him aaron for the purpose of this. A rod a rod. 

55:30
So have a rod. Potentially bets at the actual a rod. Um, so we might have rob partner with someone like aaron and he says, okay, listen, I want to bet on, you know the, the New Orleans Saints, and right now the number is at plus three. So, rob, for $1, you can move the number up and you can bet the other side of the Saints game and when you bet that other side, we're now going to get Saints plus three and a half. If you bet it again, we're going to get Saints plus four. So now Rob, for $2, can move that number and now Aaron's account can now go ahead and hit the Saints plus four, which is a full point better, and all it costed was the $2 in loss that Rob hit at the worst numbers. That gets now deducted off Aaron's share and you make an average number. That's slightly worse In this example. 

56:19
Obviously, moving a number for $1 doesn't exist and then being able to play back for 100,000, that would be an insane earn and you'd make a ton of money that way. But just for the simplicity of the story, that's kind of the numbers I wanted to use. So that's how kind of market manipulate, what market manipulation is. But sorry, go ahead, rob. 

56:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, this is yeah, like it. It doesn't necessarily have to be someone else. So that's what I just want to start with. A lot of times, what you know, if you're a professional better, you're not getting down in one place, you're not just betting in one spot, you're betting in a variety of different spots no, that's what I was going to get into, so let me sorry. 

56:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let me get into it then because that's what I was going to going to mention is, right now we've we've seen this. A lot is um, you know, we know that a lot of these new school sports books via regulated and a lot of the offshore sports books, right now they don't originate their own lines and they don't have a provider that just gives them the lines fresh and what happens is they don't chart off their own action. We can give you a recommendation. We'll link one of Spanky's podcasts or potentially tweet it out after that does a good job of explaining how this works. But essentially, what happens is these new school bookmakers don't move on their own action. So when Aaron bets a hundred thousand, they don't move the number, they just take that position. The only way they move the number is if the person who they're copying the number from which is some of the prevalent offshore sports books, mainly Pinnacle and Bet Chris, if they move their number, then these new school sports books are gonna just move to copy that number. What's happening is Pinnacle and Chris are actually charting that number, so they're moving based on the grading of this guy's account versus this girl's account, versus this person's account, and the new school books are just basically moving on air is what they call it. So even if they don't write a single bet on the number, but Pinnacle now moves that number, they're going to move that number directly without taking a hit. 

58:10
So now what happens is if you can get your hands on, like, a couple of these accounts, or if you, if somebody has, you know big time accounts where they can move a lot of money through some of these books that are quote unquote, copying the lines, what happens is they can now play the books like pinnacle or chris the other way. Um, wait for those other books to copy. And a lot of the paperhead shops are like this as well, where they'll just copy on air without actually having any um, you know any actually like without writing any action. Um, and what'll happen is you'll be able to basically move a number five, 10, 20 cents one way for a small sum of money and then be able to play back on the other side. It's significantly favorable number when you basically cost, average it together, you're getting a significantly better number. That's usually a plus expected value play and an earn in the range of you know almost half of what your, what your bait was, so you might be able to earn, like you know, even potentially up to five or 10% via this method. So that's market manipulation at a rough, you know, in a rough go. 

59:16
I guess that's like a two, three minute description of it. We'll link Spanky's podcast. He does an amazing job of explaining a little bit more about what this is and why it happens. But Rob wanted to come to you for any comments. You know, where do you see this in the space right now? 

59:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's getting less prominent, at least in major markets. This is just me speaking basically out of my ass, from my own personal experiences and just watching the markets that I bet in particularly. But a lot of these fakes now would get picked off Absolutely. So what that means is um, you got so many people who are watching the screen. They see pinnacles number move or Chris's number move and they're like, hmm, is this a real move or does it look and smell fishy to me? If it does look and smell fishy, I'm going to bet back at the opposite side because there's value in the opposite side and I know that. So it doesn't happen as much as it used to. Definitely I know when I first seriously started getting involved in betting and was betting larger amounts, you'd see it be much more prominent in the markets that I bet, at the very least Props markets you see it happen all the time, especially props markets. You have an offshore which is five dimes which originates a lot of prop markets for auto racing, for example, where you would maybe see a lot of other PPH accounts or regulated books. Just copy five dimes, nascar head, head-to-head matchups when they open, for example. So from that point of view you basically could bet at five dimes for if your foot, your count, is flagged as sharp, or even if it's not, if you keep betting the prop enough times and move the entire market everywhere to a range where you have significant value on the other side. So that still happens quite frequently. Eventually, you know, that kind of edge dries up. People start to realize what's happening. But I have seen that over the course of years. That's not even a market market I pay attention to and I see that. But I think typically what's happening now is you will. 

01:01:26
If you're thinking about faking and manipulating a market, I'll say fake, I say faking. All the time it's the same thing essentially Faking the line. Faking the line. You have to think in the sense of would I be able to get away with doing this now? So you start to see like a little bit of disguise, an element of disguise now, where it's much tougher for other people to pick off whether a line move is happening. Like, for example, I'm a hockey better, Bet a lot on hockey. 

01:02:01
If a backup goalie is announced in a game and I want to bet it, I'm going to bet it. I'm not going to go fake that line the other way, because it's going to be very obvious to anyone who's following that the line is moving in the opposite direction. This makes absolutely no sense. Why would they be betting on the backup goalie? I'm going to just be stuck with a bad bet in that scenario. I'm going to just be stuck with a bad bet in that scenario. Let's say in this case, though, I think the backup goalie is maybe an upgrade or something, and market hasn't reacted to that in the past. That'd be an excellent time to fake it. So you're starting to see things just be a little bit smarter now, where it's not as easy for someone who's just sitting at a desk watching lines to be able to immediately pick it off yeah, the best fakes are obviously I mean, it's this, it's no surprise but the best fakes are when you can actually trick some other professionals as well. 

01:02:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Exactly so, if you can get some other people, like rob's example here you know you have a backup goalie. Starting backup is actually an upgrade over the quote-unquote starter. So you bet the starter out and everyone starts thinking like, wow, this starter's a huge move. This book just moved here Starting goalie's out. We got to hammer this. They will now clean up the board for you, move everywhere else and you can now hammer back at a better price. So obviously that's like an ideal fake is, if you can, you know, essentially fake out other professional bettors, not just the sports book. If you fake out other professional bettors, they're going to move the whole market for you and you'll be able to play back significantly higher profits. So that's with, you know, less investment into the fake. 

01:03:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think obviously this is not going to impact 99% of people or more, but I think it's an interesting topic because I mean we get a lot of questions about it. It's come up in, actually, our Q&A, which we've been saving some questions for a while frequently, so it's worth going over on my Twitter. I guess it could go into the tweets that Twitter trigger us at some point as well. But it's like somebody's betting this game. They must know something. Somebody must know something about this. I mean, a lot of times that's just somebody manipulating the market. 

01:04:14
The timing doesn't make sense to you. Why would somebody be betting this on no news or whatever at like three in the afternoon Because they think that they could probably get away with it at that time? That's the reality of it. I'm not saying that's a guaranteed rule. There are no guaranteed rules of thumb but the goal of manipulating the market, faking a line, is to be able to get down even more at a better price on the side that you like. That is the end goal and for the vast majority of people they're not betting enough to need to do this or to ever even consider doing it. It makes no sense. Why am I going to bet $8,000 at pinnacle to move a line. Well, you're doing that if you can get, you know, 150 on the other side at some point in the variety of accounts that you're betting at, whatever your entire market is. But for the average person it makes no, no sense to do that. So I think that's pretty decent summary. 

01:05:07
There still happens. I still see it. I can. I can still spot them in sports. I don't bet the easiest ones to spot our baseball because it's very. It's not often that you'll see like there's a kind of a dead period in the day of baseball, right, think about the sport in general. Limits come, circles, come off in the morning, which means that limits open up. It's a everyone's betting into market. The line kind of settles after an hour where people think it should be. There's no new information that's coming out between then and lineups coming up. But every now and then you'll see like 11 in the morning, 12 noon for the night game line starts to shift in one direction. You're like who's betting this now? Now, it could just be someone betting it now with enough money to move a line. But you, like, you pay attention to that stuff, right, you keep track of it, the timing of the bets, you start to see it happening over the course of many days and somebody coming in on the other side. Well, you know, it was probably manipulated in some way. 

01:06:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yep agreed Because it's not even about necessarily the timing of the day. It's more just like picking up on patterns around so you might be able to spot one fake one day and then the next day you're like, oh, that happened last time. And then what happened was the line ended moving the other way right after and then, like came in on this book, this book faked it twice and then it moved the other way right after. And if you could pick up on stuff like that, you don't even necessarily need to like blow up the fake at that book, you just use the info to your advantage well, that's. 

01:06:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's the most frustrating part, I guess, of the manipulation is when your, your fake, gets blown up, meaning that you're trying to move market to get a, a bigger bet on the other side. Someone notices and they just immediately bet back the other side where it's like, why don't you just get down like quietly as well? You know, I'm saying that's the frustrating part. I think a lot of times it's out of spite, if I'm being completely honest, where somebody just says I think I know who's moving this one way. I don't like them, I'm just gonna bet the other side and mess up their market happens, happens yes, okay, so that has been the first ever circles off video episode vodcast. 

01:07:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, don't, let's not call it that. It's like I will people call like vlogs vlogs. Okay, fine, I guess it's fine like a vodcast. I don't. I've never even heard that before. I listen to I listen to a lot of podcasts never once heard of the vodcast. 

01:07:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm more mad bro. Maybe we're, maybe we're coining the vodcast. Then it's a video podcast. What it doesn't, what doesn't make sense about vodcast, is what I don't understand what you think francesco greco would come on he would 100. Come on, I don't know what we would talk to him about. He bets every single favorite in seria every single week. 

01:07:54
Okay, we'll ask him why yeah, his bet, his bet um sizing, is very interesting lots of $10 bets and then like $1,000 bet, which, by the way, I can confirm is actually the way he bets, which is even funnier. 

01:08:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's how I. Okay, well, let's save it for when he comes on. We'll close off right now, but yeah, I'm down to have him on. 

01:08:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know he will have him in studio. 

01:08:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If he comes here? He's been here before. 

01:08:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've met him. Yeah, you've met him. I've never met him. Yeah, me and a friend, todd, went out to dinner with him once. Uh, yeah, he's, he's, he's a normal dude man. I don't know. I still have a fear that he might murder me in person one day. Like this is like a long con. He came out, he came out to seem very normal and he's like pizzola, come visit me and uh, where is he from? I can't remember he's to be so upset if he's listening to this and I can't remember where he's from which part of it. 

01:08:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's definitely listening in now, Savona come visit me in Savona. 

01:08:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have my guest house waiting for you. We remodeled it and whatever I'm like, well, this is where I go to die. I think, but it'd be. I'm caught. If that's what happened, what happened to? 

01:09:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you Pizzola. Okay, anyways, we'll close it off there. Thanks to anyone who watched on YouTube. I'm not sure we're going to get like a ton of views off the bat, but the audio has been great. Please, you know I guess the ask for this one is go to YouTube, subscribe, even if you don't want to watch on YouTube, if you support the podcast, if you support the podcast, then please, you know, go to YouTube and support us and subscribe, like the video. Thanks everyone, appreciate it and we'll see you guys next week.